By John Ekundayo
Turning back the hand of the clock to 29th May 2023. Dateline: Eagle Square, Abuja. Nigerians, albeit, seemingly divided along political leanings, were expectant of a new dawn in leadership. The elated, excited, and enthusiastic adherents and admirers of the man elected to sit in the saddle were upbeat about their mentor, coach and leader. Why would they not be? Taking cognizance of the twisted and thorny path to his emergence and election, which was laced with myriads of obstructions and obstacles – human, partisan, and organizational – his mentees and acolytes have more than enough reasons to exhibit their excitement amid the pomp and pageantry.
Aftermath of the swearing-in of the President, there was the usual longing for a speech. It is customary for most presidential address after the oath taking to be cosmetic and semantically laden with rhetoric of getting the country connecting, collaborating and cooperating in the journey to an elusive El Dorado. Enter the seeming stormy petrel of Nigeria’s politics and politicking, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT). The enigmatic Tinubu mounted the rostrum and jolted not only the enthusiastic crowd at the venue, but millions of Nigerians watching live on television and the internet with his firm declaration of withdrawal of petrol subsidy and unification in the exchange rate of the local currency – Naira!
Beholding Buhari’s Best
Human memory, some say, is short. It will be intriguing and interesting to bring back a synopsis of the state of the health of Nigeria’s economy in May 2023 before the erstwhile President Muhammad Buhari (PMB) handed over the baton to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT). This essayist, as a columnist way back then, could vividly recount and recollect that almost 90% of the country’s earnings (revenue) was used in debt servicing, hence the government of PMB had to go cap in hand to borrow most times to the chagrin of the populace. Pontificating it further: Buhari’s Budget (2023) depicts a damning scenario: Total budget was $47 billion; projected revenue was $22 billion, while expected borrowing (loan) was put at $25 billion. PMB, in the difficult and damning situation his government was enmeshed in, could not do contrariwise without stepping on powerful toes, within and outside the context of Nigeria.
Fast-forwarded to 2 years after, PBAT’s 2025 Budget is $34 billion, expected revenue accruals to the federation account is $28 billion, while the government at the centre intends to borrow only $6 billion. What a sharp contrast! What has shifted and changed? Tinubu’s adroit and adept adoption of sagacious strategic leadership principles, policies, processes and practices that have enabled the steering of the ship of state through tough times. One can be curious: do all the steps work well all the time? This writer will come to that later in this essay.
Globally, this season is not easy for any economy, even in developed climes, to thrive without leaders tinkering beyond the norm – it is a time synonymous with “leadership without easy answers” (apology to the leadership scholar and author – Ronald Heifetz). It could be surmised that PBAT, as a strategic leader, he was and is still is, taking cognizance of his hey days in Lagos as the Governor of that epic centre of Nigeria’s economy, from the outset, had to put on his cerebral collaborative cap of audacity to take those tough decisions of withdrawal of subsidies and unification of the exchange rate of the Naira. These are two bitter but necessary pills to administer to a dying economy, almost on life support. Painting gory and gloomy picture of the economy, a professor of economics; once the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and the incumbent Governor of Anambra State, Professor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, attested on national television (specifically on Channels TV), that Tinubu inherited “a dead economy from a macro economic point of view.”
As we speak, collectively and cumulatively, Tinubu reforms have transformed the country’s revenue in 2 years, in the saddle, and simultaneously slashed borrowing by almost 75%, whilst earnings (revenue accruals) to the coffers of the government have grown by over 30%. Putting it saliently and succinctly, only petty, puerile and pedestrian armchair analysts will downplay and denigrate President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration performance on fiscal and budgetary discipline with such glaring metrics that the international community can decipher. While it is not doubtful that the reforms are functional and fruitful, Nigeria can do better! Furthermore, as the National Assembly concludes the passage of the tax reform bills, the economy will be revved to life again. It could be better envisaged!! Can we say that Nigeria, synonymous with a parabolic-shaped structure, has passed the turning point, and is on the way up and out of economic mess and miasma? This could not be far from the obvious when juxtaposed with the World Bank projection of economic growth of 3.6% in 2025. What of the recent statement from the IMF that Nigeria has fully paid the $3.4 billion loan she owed that international monetary authority, except the paltry special drawing right amounting to $30 million, which can be settled on an annual basis over a few years! These two undeniable attestations from these two global bodies have thrown the camp of many of Tinubu’s traducers into a state of despair, thus taking the wind out of their sails!
It is remarkable, in the heralding hoopla of hardship in the country, that three Governors, at different fora, expressed delight in receiving more than double their allocation in the present PBAT era compared with the previous administration. Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO) of Ekiti, Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo, and Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa, all attested to doing more for their people, especially in areas of infrastructure and agribusiness, as more resources are coming in for them from the centre every month. Hence, it is left for courageous followers to demand accountability from their Governors in the States. It is worth pointing out that Ekiti, leading in transparency rating nationally, stands out as the 1st State in Nigeria to procure a strategic pillar monitoring system (SPMS) tagged Ekiti Dashboard, depicting in real time with pictures and video evidence of ongoing and completed projects. This is worth emulating by states and the federal government.
Tinubu: Tickling Testimonies?
Even in the Holy Writ, the Almighty God is tickled by testimonies. Virtually all faiths and religions gravitate towards thanksgiving. As we speak, the students’ loan scheme, even though initially doubted, is on full throttle in tertiary institutions in Nigeria. Tinubu came on board and closed the door to fuel subsidy; borrowing has not stopped, but abated. Renewed Hope initiatives have moved up the needle of the net reserves from a paltry $3 billion to a whopping $27 billion in two years! Evidently, the national cake is becoming bigger, thus enabling the country to finance her loans more comfortably without headache or heartache. It is indicative of the revving to life of the once dying economy under the previous administration. One can curiously ask: where are the advisers and counsellors of Tinubu’s administration urging the President to go the way of Argentina? The recent release of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (April 2025 to be precise) has the South American country topping the list of debtors of the global financial body!
It is remarkable to draw attention to a widely circulated post, which has not been rebutted by the opposition, naysayers and wailers of the Tinubu administration as we speak. It was authored by the famous social media influencer, lawyer and activist, Reno Omokri. It was titled: “Tinubu Making Many Richer.” In it, he recalled that as of May 2023, Aliko Dangote’s net worth was $13.5 billion, and almost 2 years of Tinubu in the saddle, Africa’s richest man’s haul hovers at a humongous amount of $27.8 billion. Likewise, the wealth of Mike Adenuga Jr, Abdulsamad Rabiu, and Femi Otedola has spiralled by not less than 25%. Moreover, Reno went further, stating that even corporate bodies in the financial sector were beneficiaries of the reforms under Tinubu, even though they seemingly wear a placid face of hard times! In his words: “For instance, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GT Bank), Nigeria’s largest bank by market share, made a profit of ₦1.1 trillion last financial year, up from ₦367.4 billion in 2023 … Fidelity Bank Plc, made a record-breaking pre-tax profit of ₦385.2 billion for 2024, representing a 210% increase compared to the ₦124.3 billion recorded in 2023 …” He went further, that even the subnational, the States, have faired better citing Lagos State’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising from $100 billion to a whopping $259 billion under the watch of Tinubu, in just 2 years! Does anyone still remember the campaign mantra of Governor Sanwo-Olu in the run-off to the 2023 election? Is “A Greater Lagos Rising” indeed?
Tinubu: Tackling Transformation
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts”. – Winston Churchill
In developmental diction, transformation is a series of successive, successful, salient and succinct changes leading to a desired outcome. In accordance with John Trudel, “the future is not something we enter, it is something we create.” Going back in memory lane, predating the 2023 election, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) needs to be reminded to read, reflect, rehearse, and ruminate on his well-crafted “Renewed Hope” in what he tagged: “My Vision for Nigeria.” It is possible the poise, pleasure or pressure of office might have swayed away the focus or blurred the vision of Mr. President regarding the building blocks making up the mantra of the incumbent administration. Is it not desirable, during this half-time, like in the game of football, to examine the tactics and techniques adopted and adapted so far, and decipher: what works; what does not work; and why it does not work! Not all seemingly sagacious and strategic steps have been successful in enacting a positive change. A good and strategic coach will call out his team at half time; offer counsel; give admonition; and seldom make vital changes in the team make-up, if the expected audacious results, despite investing humongous resources, are not felt, seen or embraced by the fans or followers! This is one way the President can trounce and truncate traducers in their tracks.
Tinubu: Time To Tackle Traducers!
This writer as a monitoring and evaluation (M & E) scholar, would like to sound it loud and clear to Mr. President that it is high time he paid attention to the application of the principles of monitoring, evaluation, accountability and learning (MEAL). Nigeria should adopt a MEAL template that is user-friendly and that followers (citizens) can read, relate and respond to. One major way to depict this is the Federal Government of Nigeria directing all major ministries to procure Dashboards that will depict to the public projects being executed, showing all details to the public, anywhere in the world. Moreover, the Federal Executive Council should identify legacy and/or iconic projects that should be migrated from the ministries’ Dashboards into a one-stop platform, Nigeria Key Result Areas (NKRAs) in tune with the content and context of the Renewed Hope Agenda of the incumbent administration. For instance, Malaysia has National Key Result Areas (NKRAs), likewise, some other countries are adept at planning. It is high time Nigeria took a cue. Not only should practitioners in government know where the government is heading, but the followers, in a transparent and accountable manner, should also have a glimpse and should be able to relate and respond to governance.
In addition, so that this laudable initiative will not be another mouthed mantra or paper tiger, it is imperative to set up an independent body that would be reporting directly to the President monthly bringing up situation report of: what works; what does not work; and why it does not work, whilst tracking the NKRAs. The high-powered body should be headed by a seasoned technocrat, and members composed of credible scholars and successful private sector players. This author could recollect with nostalgia the inculcation of robust and rugged application of monitoring and evaluation system in Lagos, starting from the heydays of Mr. Ben Akabueze as the Honourable Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning – was privileged to serve under his tutelage as the Director, Monitoring and Evaluation. It was pioneered by him, under the leadership of then Governor Bola Tinubu, now President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, transcending to the era of Babatunde Raji Fashola, SAN, Akinwunmi Ambode, and the incumbent Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu as Governors. This is the beauty of building strong institutions. No wonder Lagos is working! President Bola Tinubu should ingrain and inculcate this into governance at the centre in Nigeria to not only depict accountability, transparency, performance, but value for money as humongous resources have been deployed, and are being deployed, into diverse sectors of the economy with little to exhibit and encapsulate!
Conclusion
Finally, the Governors have a lot to contribute as the resources are trickling or pouring into their coffers monthly. It is high time they developed more proactive and practical life-impacting programmes and projects focusing on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) and Agriculture, exploiting all the value chains of the latter. The States should not just exhibit farm produce but go down the line of processing, manufacturing, packaging and exporting to countries to earn foreign exchange. This is Agribusiness. Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) could be explored and exploited in this context to boost the economy. Over time, these moves will ensure food security, enhance foreign exchange earnings, provide jobs for our teeming youth and reduce insecurity. The Federal Government could incentivize States so that many of them can plug in. The more the merrier!
In concluding this treatise, I want to poignantly point out my experience in one of the modules of the Strategy Execution at Harvard Business School. It was unbelievable that Kenya was planting tea leaves, harvesting and drying the leaves in Kenya, whilst the processing, manufacturing, packaging and marketing all took place in the United Kingdom (UK). Unilever, the firm with a presence in Kenya and most parts of the globe, annually grosses billions of dollars in revenue, and in a particular year, paid more than $1 billion in tax to the coffers of the UK government. In essence, it is high time our leaders exploited the full agricultural value chain locally, rather than letting Nigeria be exploited through exporting our raw produce to the Western world for peanuts. One is therefore excited with initiative and intervention in resurrecting Cotton and Cocoa development. The full value chain should be exploited! I remember growing up in the early 70s seeing my late father, Pa Joseph Ekundayo, of blessed memory, in Ekiti, growing cotton and doing well on our soil. We can exploit the full value chain of our food and tree crops in the present age. There is much more to gain and garner from this venture. Wrapping it up, all the initiatives and interventions highlighted in this essay should be explored and exploited whilst applying rigorous and robust monitoring, evaluation, accounting and learning (MEAL) template with the inauguration of the Nigeria Key Result Areas (NKRAs) that followers can read, reflect, ruminate and respond to in real time.
