In the last few months, the continent of Africa has witnessed a flurry of diplomatic moves by Ukraine and a horde of great powers. The diplomatic hawking, which is evocative of the scramble for Africa during the colonial epoch, is all about the hegemonic struggle the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has spawned. Unlike the epochal colonial scramble, the current wave of scramble is aimed at capturing the hearts of African leaders by Ukraine and the great powers in their national interests.

The Russian-Ukrainian hostilities had broken out in 2014 and had latently polarised the great powers into those in support of Russia’s stance and those in support of Ukraine which they perceived as a victim of Russian aggression. On February 24 this year, Russia announced it was carrying out a military operation in Ukraine aimed at demilitarisation and denazification of the country. This recent move has seen the USA and most of the Western European countries back Ukraine, and labelled Russia as the aggressor without paying a modicum of attention to the security concerns of Russia. The fact that in response to the Russian move, the USA and the West had slammed a litany of diplomatic and economic sanctions on Russia and also engaged in mobilising world opinion against it, could not but reawaken and deepen the rivalry between the East-West a la the cold war era.

In mobilising world opinion against Russia amidst the slew of economic sanctions, Ukrainian allies, mainly the USA and the West, in March got the United Nations General Assembly to pass a resolution condemning Russia as the aggressor. A breakdown of the voting pattern on this resolution revealed that a total of 140 out of 190 states voted in favour of the resolution. While the majority of African states voted for the condemnation of Russia, a number of them abstained. In April also, another UNGA resolution was passed to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council with 17 abstentions. Of the abstentions, African states were in the majority. African states, in reality, have either been preaching the gospel of neutrality or keeping mute.

Five major reasons account for this. One, the two countries involved in the conflict are trading partners of a good number of African states particularly in food items such as grains and also in fertiliser and iron and steel. Two, Russia is the bulwark of a number of African states. Three, many African states still cannot just forget the enviable role Russia played in their struggle against colonialism and racial discrimination perpetrated by the West. Four, the African perception that Africans should not be lured into a war that was instigated and is being promoted by the West and its military industrial complex for their hegemonic, economic and strategic interests. Five, to enable them broker peace between the warring parties.

Read Also: Africa: Taking action to curb menace of transboundary diseases

Yet, Ukraine and the Western powers have not relented in mounting pressure on Africa in order that their sanctions can have a crippling effect on Russia and also blackmail it into submission. As an attempt to dissuade Africans from softening on Russia, Ukraine and the West have portrayed Russia not just as the aggressor but also as the cause of the obstruction to world food supplies following Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea port. Russia has had to respond to these allegations to redeem its image, particularly among its African allies that depend on food imports from Russia and Ukraine.

Hence the flurry of diplomatic gymnastics unleashed on Africa by Ukraine and the great powers, including Russia. Shortly after the April UNGA resolution, Ukraine sought to meet with African leaders to rally them around the Ukrainian cause. But African leaders bucked the move. Noticing this, France and Germany stepped in to secure AU leaders’ ears for President Volodoymyr Zelensky. When Zelensky eventually had a June 4 date for the video conference with the AU, it was a colossal failure as the conference was poorly attended. Only four African states attended out of 54!

They were Senegal, Cote d’voire, Congo and Libya. Nonetheless, Zelensky still used the platform to solicit for Africa’s support. Zelensky continued his diplomatic evangelisation on the continent when on August 4, in a virtual meeting with African journalists, he preached the gospel of why Africa should isolate Russia and jettison neutrality. He said Russian president Valadimir Putin “is not a reliable partner in solving Africa’s problems, as he doesn’t truly believe in Africa.” He crusaded further, “Russia is not investing in African countries. That means Russia does not believe in you.” From all indications, this rhetoric seems not to have swayed African leaders yet.

In May, German chancellor, Olaf Schulz made a 3-nation visit to Africa – Senegal, South Africa and Niger. Though disempowered and disrobed as a great power after WW 11, Germany today in all indices, is not a small fry in world political-economy. Apart from using the tour to refresh its economic, defence and strategic interests in those countries, it also sought to proselytise African leaders to support Ukraine.

In order to decrescendo whatever impact western propaganda might have on Africans, Putin in July, despatched his tough-talking Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, to Africa on a 4-nation diplomatic tour to Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo Brazzaville. During the tour, he explained Russia’s operation in Ukraine and exonerated Russia as the sole cause of food shortages and high food prices globally. He, however, assured them that action would be taken to alleviate the challenge and also strengthen Russia’s defence and trade ties with the continent. He also spoke about the Russia-Africa Summit slated for October in Ethiopia. All along and even up till now, Russia seems to perceive Africa’s neutrality as tacit support for it.

It is in realisation of this that France and the USA, almost falling over each other, joined in the scramble for the “African heart.” In the same month of July that the Russian foreign minister visited Africa, President Emmanuel Macron also embarked on a 3-nation visit to Africa—Cameroon, Benin Republic and Guinea Bissau. Apart from the Ukrainian issue, France is worried about the whittling down of its influence by Turkey, Russia and China in Africa. Chinese’s chequebook diplomacy has particularly been worrisome to France, Britain and USA. So, apart from drumming support for Ukraine, Macron also sought to reconnect with France’s hitherto impenetrable relations with its former colonies in Africa. To achieve this, France has also led the Food and Agriculture Resilience Mission (FARM) initiative.

If other powers had been modest in standing up to Russia in Africa, America has not. Amidst the presence of the Russian foreign minister in Africa, President Joe Biden announced that the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Greenfield would visit Uganda and Ghana and he did so between August 4-6. Similarly, the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Michael Hammer visited Egypt and Ethiopia.

The American diplomatic hawking on the continent was crowned with the 3-nation visit of the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. He visited South Africa, Uganda and Rwanda. During this visit, Blinken, in diplomatic savvy, deployed America’s soft power to sway Africans, saying “the US sees Africa’s 54 countries as equal partners in tackling global problems. He also hinted at the release of a new US policy on Africa and stressed America’s commitment to promoting democracy, human rights, the rule of law and good governance. To mitigate the soaring food prices, America has also given African states $1.3bn. The impact of all these on Africa’s neutrality is, however, yet to crystallise.

In conclusion, it is most realistic for Africa to, in this conflict, maintain its neutral stance. If Ukraine has chosen to swallow something harder than unripe plantain; if America has chosen to carry its rituals beyond its own shrines, Africa should then be left to avoid thorns whenever and wherever it sees any.

• Dr Adebisi writes from Joseph Ayo Babalola University, Ikeji-Arakeji, Osun State.