The cloud of uncertainty has not fizzled out. The electoral umpire is ready. Political parties and their standard bearers are expectant. Voters are dusting up their voter’s cards. Security agencies are giving assurances.
But the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) is not on the same page with other stakeholders. There is a widening gulf of dissension.
Is the separatist group going to hold Anambra State to ransom on November 6?
The proscribed organisation has advised the people of the five Southeast states to observe a week of sit-at-home or face the consequences for disobedience. The week coincides with the governorship poll in Anambra State, where Governor Willy Obiano’s tenure will soon expire.
The people have cause to worry about the fate of the election and, indeed, the state. Insecurity has disturbed the electioneering. Campaigns have been disrupted. Every Monday, in the past one month, Anambra has become a state of strife, rancour and blood. Victims have bitter tales to tell. The fear of the non-state actor has become the beginning of wisdom.
The worsening insecurity in the Southeast in general has made the masses in the region poorer. The trading enclave with prosperous businesses has slid into huge loss of income. The enduring commercial link between Igbo land and other regions is fast diminishing. It is life first and business later. Although IPOB claims to be fighting the Federal Government, the victims are obviously the people.
In the kingless society of the Southeast, IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu is king. Although he is in detention, he still calls the shots. The Federal Government claimed that the group has been outlawed, but people obey its command and ignore the directive of the five governors.
It is an indictment on the chief executives. It is said that the gap between the governors and the rampaging youths is wide. Their perception is that the governors are not for the people. Is that not legitimacy crisis? But it is debatable.
During the week, the Igbo umbrella organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, begged IPOB to sheathe its sword. It appeared the ethnic mouthpiece urged the group not to cease hostility permanently, but to rescind its decision on the lockdown so that election can take place peacefully in Anambra State.
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The pan-Igbo organisation is conscious of the implication of a scenario where election is put on hold. It means that the transition will be crippled. There will be no orderly transfer of power. Once there is a succession crisis, the solution lies with the 1999 Constitution. The Speaker of the House of Assembly can only hold forte briefly. The warning by the Federal Attorney-General about a state of emergency is instructive.
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, had raised the alarm that danger was looming. He doubted if a credible election can take place in the absence of an atmosphere conducive for such an important civic duty.
It was not without justification. INEC local offices have been attacked by “unknown gunmen”. Vehicles were damaged. Two giant generating sets in two local government offices of the commission were vandalised. The safety of sensitive materials for the election was in doubt. Parents of National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members are apprehensive. Many prospective ad hoc workers are rejecting the offer for electoral jobs.
On Thursday, INEC Commissioner for Information and Voter Education, Festus Okoye, cried out that the Anambra poll is costlier than the previous Edo and Ondo elections.
Anambra is enveloped in anxiety. But the fear has not deterred the electoral agency from proceeding with the preparations.
INEC has now concluded the deployment of non-sensitive materials and training of personnel for the election. Yakubu said the commission has successfully accomplished 12 of the 14 activities listed in the Timetable and Schedule of Activities for the election released in January. The two outstanding activities are the last day of campaign, which is at midnight on Thursday November 4, 2021, and Election Day, which is Saturday November 6.
While INEC is determined to proceed with the election as scheduled, it has not failed to emphasise that the safety and protection of voters, its personnel, accredited observers, the media and materials are cardinal considerations in the election.
It is important to note that while the commission is mandated to conduct a free and fair election, it is not in control of all the factors that will make the goal attainable. The commission is only taking solace in the assurance by the police that it will maintain law and order on Election Day.
Accordingly, Yakubu said the commission is forging ahead because of the assurance from security agencies that they would secure the environment for the exercise. He said the motivation is the professional conduct they displayed during the governorship elections in Edo and Ondo states.
But many stakeholders have reservations. It is not without basis. The police in Anambra have promised to provide security, which they cannot provide for citizens on Mondays to go about their normal businesses.
Some security experts have suggested maximum deployment of police, and even soldiers. This has pros and cons. The deployment may bring a sort of relief to INEC workers. But the large presence of police and military may convey an impression of a war situation. It may scare voters away.
How many wards, constituencies and polling units can security agencies police effectively? What if the agitators unleash mayhem in the neighbourhood that will trigger apathy?
Some stakeholders have suggested that Kanu’s release will douse tension and make the enforcers to desist from fomenting trouble. The possibility is remote.
What then is the way out? Ohanaeze has advised that the five Southeast governors should meet with the relevant groups in the region, particularly the youth, to brainstorm on the collective problem that has gone out of hand.
There is need for dialogue. IPOB should refocus its struggle. The bloodletting by “unknown gunmen” is worrisome. Southeasterners went through a lot of hardship during the 30-month civil war between July 6, 1967 and January 15, 1970. Many families have not recovered from the tragedy. They are passing through another challenging moment now.
IPOB’s violent battle has is a wide departure from a superb intellectual engagement. The threats have made the Federal Government uncomfortable, no doubt. But, the negative impact is still restricted to the region where kinsmen kill themselves in the name of enforcement.
If election does not hold in Anambra, a dangerous precedent would have been set. IPOB will be more emboldened. The disaster will be projected by the fans of the group as a feat if sorts. The group will spoil for more wars.
Yet, the end of any war cannot be predicted. Any attempt to rapidly march the bewildered region into a greater political doom should be avoided.
If the goal of IPOB is the welfare of Ndigbo, the group should review its approach to the self-imposed struggle in a way that will not further compromise the peace and happiness of the zone.
For now, the fate of the November 6 poll in Anambra State hangs in the balance. Only an effective dialogue among the major stakeholders before the Election Day will restore confidence in the state and restore peace in the entire Southeast.