Residents of Kogi State, in the North Central, would go to polls next Saturday to decide who succeeds Governor Yahaya Bello, whose tenure would be ending early next year. According to the list published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 18 candidates are in the race. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the chances of the major contenders.
Next Saturday’s governorship election in Kogi State is likely to be a close contest among the three leading candidates in the race for several reasons. Going by the list published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 18 political parties are fielding candidates for next Saturday’s governorship election in Kogi State. Some of the candidates are Usman Ododo of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC); Senator Dino Melaye of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP); Murtala Ajaka of Social Democratic Party (SDP); Leke Abejide of the African Democratic Congress (ADC); Olayinka Braimoh of the Action Alliance (AA); Kingsley Idoko Ilonah of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA); Dr. Samson Agada Omale of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) and Admiral Usman Jibrin of the Accord (A) party amongst others.
Observers are of the view that five key issues would shape the contest. They are the power of incumbency, ethnic rivalry, fallouts of political violence witnessed in past elections, defections and anti-parties activities that are spurred by disagreements arising from the primaries of the various parties.
Power of Incumbency:
Like elsewhere in the country, the power of incumbency is a crucial factor in this election and the ruling APC is banking seriously on it. The APC also controls the Federal Government with its enormous coercive apparatus and remains the party to beat in the election.
With federal and state might behind the APC candidate, the opposition will face a herculean task in their bid to win the election. Appointees of Governor Bello from all parts of the state are gearing up to garner winning votes for their party’s candidate.
Ethnic rivalry:
Next Saturday’s governorship election promises to be a contest among the three major ethnic nationalities in Kogi State; the Igala, the Ebira and the Okun. Observers believe the decision of the APC to give its ticket to Usman Ododo, who is of Ebira extraction, to succeed his kinsman, Governor Yahaya Bello, has introduced an ethnic dimension to the contest.
Since the creation of the state in 1991, elections in the North Central state have always been contests between the two major tribes, the Igala and the Ebira, while the third tribe, the Okun and other minority tribes usually play the role of the beautiful bride.
This time around, the main opposition party, the PDP has opted for a candidate of Okun extraction, Senator Melaye to face the APC’s Ododo in the election. The SDP, which has been a fringe player in past elections, is making waves ahead of this election because it is fielding a candidate of Igala extraction, Murtala Ajaka. The Igalas are the most populous ethnic group in the state and have a considerable influence when it comes to electing the governor of the state.
Though all the parties are claiming that their candidates deserve the plum job based on capacity or their track records, it is clear from the campaign that ethnicity will be a major factor that will shape the contest.
Based on voting strengths, none of these three tribes can single-handedly make one of their governors. So, ethnic minorities like the Bassa Nge, the Bassa Kwomu, the Nupe, the Ogori-Magongo and non-indigenes may likely decide who wins the election scheduled to be held on November 11.
Kogi is made up of many tribes. But, the dominant ones are the Igala in the east, Ebira in the centre, and the Okun in the west. While the Igalas and the Ebiras have presided over the state over the years, the Okuns are yet to get the same opportunity. Senator Melaye now carries the hope of the Yoruba-speaking tribe to occupy the coveted position of Kogi State chief executive.
The APC’s Usman Ododo and the PDP’s Dino Melaye are considered the frontline contenders in the race. Interestingly, Ododo, a former auditor general of local governments, is from the Ebira tribe, just like the incumbent Governor Bello.
Senator Smart Adeyemi, who lost the APC ticket to Ododo in the party’s primary claimed during an interview on Channels Television that the APC candidate is a cousin to the governor.
But, Governor Bello has responded that he has no blood relationship with the APC governorship candidate, contrary to the propaganda by the opposition. He said Ododo emerged based on merit, through a keenly contested, free and fair election.
He added: “Ododo has endeared himself to the people of Kogi. How can you be the most popular candidate, positioned to win and still instigate violence? Ododo and I may come from the same place but we do not share any blood relationship whatsoever. Do your findings. He is a very compassionate, hardworking and competent fellow and those qualities spoke for him at the primary.”
Bello justified the choice of a fellow Ebira man to succeed by saying that his administration wanted to do away with ethnic sentiments that had set the state backwards before his emergence. He said: “Ethnic sentiments set Kogi back for 19 years and we must break away from that for competence. My administration has changed the narrative of ethnicity and has been appointing and working with competent people as against choosing people from tribes in the state. We raise people from different backgrounds, irrespective of their senatorial zones,” he added.
Being the most populous ethnic group in Kogi State, the Igalas in Kogi East Senatorial District have utilized their numbers to dominate the governorship seat in the past. After being in political wilderness for eight years, the Igalas who occupy nine out of the 21 local governments in the state would want to produce Governor Bello’s successor. The Ebiras on the other hand still want to produce the next governor to make up for the years that the Igalas have dominated the governorship seat.
Similarly, in the spirit of equity and fairness, the Okuns in Kogi West Senatorial District are also clamouring for the governorship seat. The Okun people have not been privileged to produce a democratically-elected governor since the creation of the state in 1991. Being the third largest ethnic group in the state, the Okuns believe they deserve to produce the next governor because other senatorial districts have produced at least one governor.
Political violence:
Kogi’s growing notoriety for political violence is another key issue that may shape the November 11 election. Since 2003, incidences of violence have become one of the characteristics of elections in the state. In 2019, the barbaric killing of a woman, Salome Abuh, who was burnt alive in her house shortly after the announcement of the results of that year’s election, portrayed Kogi politics in a bad light.
Recent developments suggest that 2023 may not be an exception concerning election violence. The signs are ominous and if allowed to fester, it will surely affect the election with the possibility of low turnout of voters. For instance, on Tuesday, the national leadership of the SDP raised an alarm over what it described as cases of violence and insecurity in the state ahead of Saturday’s election. Its National Chairman, Alhaji Shehu Gadam told reporters in Abuja that the SDP is worried over the development.
Gadam urged President Bola Tinubu to quickly wade into the matter to restore security in the state. The SDP chieftain said Nigeria should learn lessons from the military coups in some West African countries by working towards inclusivity and securing the country. He said the SDP is worried about the growing insecurity ahead of the election. He said: “We are not leaving anything to chance; we are going to remain focused and we will not be distracted. We are calling on all our members to come out in their numbers and cast their ballots, escort the results from the polling units to collation centres at the wards, local governments and state levels. They should, however, be law-abiding and should not be intimidated.”
Defections, anti-party activities:
There has been unprecedented rate of defections from one party to another. For instance, during the February 2023 general elections, ADC claimed two House of Representatives seats in Kogi State. The duo reaped from the overt and covert anti-party activities that took place in their respective constituencies. This was a fallout of the party’s primary. It led many aggrieved politicians to support different candidates.
A similar scenario is playing out this around. For example, after Dino emerged candidate of PDP at the party’s primary, a horde of politicians left the fold in anger. Similarly, the APC primary that produced Ododo as its flag bearer is still being challenged in the courts. In like manner, the outcome of the NNPP primary has been upturned and Musa Mabarak has been replaced with Hassan Abdullahi. The fallout from these contentious primaries may force aggrieved politicians to engage in anti-party activities ahead of the election.
The various parties are leaving no stone unturned to ensure that they win the election.
Ododo (APC):
The APC is relying on the achievements of Governor Yahaya Bello in the last seven and half years to win the election. Speaking at an event recently, Bello said he has put on the ground a sound development template that would make his successor outperform him. He added that Ododo understands the process and will take Kogi to greater heights if allowed to do so.
Bello said he would retire to his house after leaving office on January 27, 2024, to be with his children because they have missed him immensely since he became governor. He said Kogi needs someone like Ododo as his successor to sustain his development strides.
The governor said his achievements in the last seven and half years include the allocation of 30 per cent of the budget to education (which has led to the building of two new state universities) boosting the sector and taking Kogi from 28th position in 2016 when he took over to 14 out of the 36 states of the country.
Other achievements, the governor said, include making Kogi the best state in the north in terms of amount and salary payment; recruitment of over 1,500 teachers; allocation of 16 per cent of the budget to healthcare leading to improved healthcare delivery and services via the building of a 300-bed reference hospital in Okene with modern equipment, raising the state’s internally generated revenue (IGR) from N250m in 2016 to N1.5bn now, reduction of the state’s debt profile and attraction of $1bn inflows in 2020 among others.
Melaye (PDP):
Melaye who secured the PDP ticket during the party’s primary held on Sunday, April 16, 2023, hopes to become the first Okun man to occupy the Lugard House seat of government in Lokoja, the Kogi State capital.
The 49-year-old politician recognizes the challenges ahead to emerge as the governor of the north-central state in November. Since his emergence, he has been on a fence-mending mission to get his fellow contestants to rally around him for the forthcoming election. He has also visited key PDP leaders in the state, including former governors, Alhaji Ibrahim Idris and Idris Wada. Whether this fence-mending strategy will pay off on the day of the election, remains to be seen.
Melaye was said to have emerged as the party’s flag bearer with the backing of the former Vice President and the presidential candidate of the PDP in the just concluded general election, Atiku Abubakar.
However, there are suggestions in some quarters that Melaye would not get the support of the majority Igala tribe. But, his media aide, Sam Noni, disagrees. He said people from the area will queue behind his boss 100 per cent. His words: “The Igalas know that after eight years of an Ebira governor, it is only fair for power to move to Kogi West. Also, they know that if power remains in Kogi Central, where Ahmed Ododo is from, power will take another 16 years to return to Kogi East. To maintain peace and unity in the state, we should adopt power rotation, and this time it is the turn of Kogi West.”
Theophilus Abu Agada, a PDP chieftain, agrees with Noni that the Igalas would vote for Melaye. He said: “I do not think the PDP committed a political blunder by giving their ticket to Senator Dino Melaye. Senator Melaye competed for the ticket and won squarely through a transparent process, and no aspirant who participated has challenged the outcome.
“The Okuns are part and parcel of Kogi State and deserve to fly the flag of the PDP. It is interesting to note that they have always supported candidates of Igala extraction in past elections. I do not see any reason why the Igalas would not support them to produce a governor for the first time since the creation of the state. For equity and fairness, the Igalas have done 16 years, and Ebiras have done eight years; it is time for an Okun person also to govern.”
Ajaka (SDP):
Murtala Ajaka who is flying the flag of the SDP said he has absolute confidence in INEC to deliver a transparent election. He described himself as the most popular contestant and vowed to liberate the state if elected. He said the people of Kogi State are with him and will vote his party into office.
Ajaka, who was until recently a staunch member of the APC, indicated recently that some of Governor Bello’s loyalists are secretly behind his aspiration to govern the state. He accused Governor Bello of imposing Ododo as the flag bearer of the APC. As a former deputy publicity secretary and a member of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC), he was actively involved in the campaign for the just concluded 2023 general elections. It was after he was disqualified from participating in the APC governorship primary in April that Ajaka dumped the APC for the SDP.
The SDP candidate dismissed allegations that he was running an ‘Igala’ agenda, saying that he was going there for the Kogi people and to run a ‘Kogi agenda.’ His words: “We have absolute confidence in INEC. The rules are very clear, INEC has a guideline and they have always followed their guideline. Whichever way INEC decides to conduct the election, we are ready to follow them. I have absolute confidence in INEC that we are going to have a transparent election in Kogi State and by the grace of God we are going to win.”
