Author: The Nation

Today marks yet another critical milestone in the democratic evolution of Nigeria. The fundamental idea of politics and democracy rests on the premise that those who have the legitimate right to allocate scarce resources and values in society as well as determine who gets what, when and how are determined through the will of the majority as expressed in free, fair and credible elections. The legitimacy of a democratic government derives from the will of the people exercised in ways stipulated in governing constitutions. A number of the crises that we have confronted since the commencement of this dispensation in 1999 have been so serious that, had they occurred in the late 1960s to early 1990s, the consequence could have been enthusiastically welcomed military overthrow of democratic systems. But one of the abiding lessons of our history has been that self-proclaimed military Messiahs tend to be nothing but fake political saviours after all who leave society far worse than they met it.

Thus, we have had nearly two and a half decades of unbroken civil rule.

Bitter experience has taught us that the worst civilian administration is far better than the best military regime. It is remarkable that a far higher number of Nigerians have registered to vote in this year’s elections than ever before. Over 87.2 million Permanent Voters Cards have been collected. This is an indication of enhanced confidence in the efficacy of the ballot box as an instrument of effecting leadership and governmental changes. While a not insignificant number especially of our youths have sought solace abroad, the ‘Japa’ phenomenon, an also not insubstantial number have chosen to stay behind and utilize their votes to empower a government capable of bringing about positive changes in the country’s fortunes and actualizing her potentials.

Elections have gradually over the last two decades acquired greater integrity, credibility and transparency. The electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has attained greater institutional autonomy. Increased use of technology has largely rendered nugatory and ineffectual previous methods of manipulating elections and perverting the will of the people.

2015 marked a watershed in the evolution of the electoral process when a government in power at the centre was displaced by the opposition through the ballot box for the first time in the country’s political history.  Nigerians are becoming more and more aware that the best panacea to the problems of democracy and the existential challenges of the country lie in more, not less, democracy.

As Nigerians go to the polls to cast their votes today for which of the leading three candidates –  Mr. Peter Obi, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar or Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu – deserves to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in May, what should be some of the key determining factors on their minds?

Implicit in our discourse so far is the indispensability of democracy to fostering good governance, transcending the depredations of underdevelopment and fostering the accelerated development of Nigeria. The question then is who among the candidates contributed the most in fighting for and helping to actualize the democracy we have experienced since 1999? The track record of all the candidates is in the public domain in this regard. It is only logical that he who staked more of life, resources and livelihood to fight for, promote and defend the democracy we have today can be trusted more to strengthen the country’s democratic structures and processes under his leadership.

With the retreat of the military from the politi cal terrain and the restoration of civil rule in 1999, which of these candidates contributed most to deepening the country’s federal practice? It is axiomatic that democratic governance can have only negligible efficacy in a plural society like ours without a robust federalism that galvanizes development from the grassroots. The records of the candidates are here again in the public domain. Atiku Abubakar was Vice-President for eight years under the General Olusegun Obasanjo presidency. That administration had an essentially unitary mind set and orientation. It took no steps whatsoever to decentralize our excessively centralized constitution. For instance, it opposed the creation of new local government councils in Lagos State and even seized the federal allocations due to local governments in the state insisting on the abolition of the new councils.

Of course, Atiku can rightly claim that he was only a deputy and not in charge in the administration. Indeed, he has since leaving office professed a commitment to a fundamental restructuring of the Nigerian federation. How much of this sincere and how much vote-attracting rhetoric? Did he do as much as he could have to influence the Obasanjo administration in which he was number two man in the direction of a greater commitment to true federalism? It is for the voter to decide.

Tinubu was governor of Lagos State for eight years and Obi governor of Anambra State also for two terms of eight years. Which of them showed a greater commitment to the federal ideal? Obi’s critics maintain that he did not hold local government elections even once during his tenure in office. What is the veracity of this allegation? Do we have any concrete evidence of the measures he took to help deepen federal practice in Nigeria as governor? Answers to these questions will help voters determine his record on this score in today’s election. Tinubu as governor of Lagos State increased the number of local government councils in the state from 20 to 57. He maintained, funded and nurtured them despite punitive financial strangulation from the Obasanjo administration. Some experts contend that the increase in the number of local governments has helped accelerate the pace of development at the grassroots while creating opportunities for the emergence of new cadre of youthful leaders at the grassroots in the state.

It is also on record that as governor of Lagos State, Tinubu gave full backing to his Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, to challenge at the Supreme Court those sections of the constitution as well as practices of the federal government that negated the letter and the spirit of true federalism. Lagos State won at least 13 of such cases at the apex court thus affirming among others the rights of states over urban planning within their jurisdiction, the illegality of federal government seizure of state funds, the illegality of federal government intrusion into local government administration and that the funding of Joint Venture Contracts as well as the National Petroleum Company PLC among others should be from the federal government’s account rather than the Federation Account.  It is for voters to decide if these facts are true and whether or not this should have a bearing on how they cast their votes.

Again, which of the leading candidates has the best demonstrated track record of utilizing democracy as a handmaiden of concrete developmental accomplishments? As Vice –President of Nigeria under Obasanjo, Atiku was put in full charge of the economy for the first term of that administration. The privatization of key public enterprises was one of his major undertakings in that capacity. While his supporters commend his efforts in that regard, others scathingly accuse him of selling off prized public assets at rock bottom prices to his cronies and friends. This was one reason why his former principal, Obasanjo, accused him of alleged corrupt practices in unsparing language in his book, ‘My Watch’.

On his performance as governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi claims to have raised the standard of education as demonstrated by the state’s secondary schools performance in the West African School Certificate (WASC) examinations as well as meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). His supporters consider his record as superlative. His critics contend that his claims are largely nebulous, non-measurable and lacking in concreteness. Obi’s refrain during the campaigns has been that he wants to move Nigeria from consumption to production. Did he do anything as governor of Anambra State for eight years to indicate that he can do the same on a larger scale for Nigeria? The answer to that question will certainly sway some votes either towards or away from Obi in today’s election depending on the perception of the individual voter.

Tinubu’s supporters refer to his record in Lagos as one of his most validating claims to have the capacity to transform Nigeria and propel her to higher pedestals of development. They refer to his accomplishments in infrastructure development, qualitative social service delivery, human capital development, financial engineering ingenuity and institution building which they insist is second to none in this dispensation. His adversaries contend, however, that Lagos has always been developed and that leaders like Brigadier Mobolaji Johnson, Alhaji Lateef Jakande and General Mohammed Buba Marwa also contributed their quota to what Lagos is today. No credible supporter of Tinubu has claimed as far as I know that others before him had not played their roles in the progress of the state. Indeed, Tinubu stood on the shoulders of giants before him as governor of Lagos State. Yet, the truth is that in the 16 years between the collapse of the second republic and the democratic restoration of 1999, Lagos had degenerated to an urban jungle as Obasanjo uncharitably described her in Y2000. It was Tinubu’s challenge to turn the fortunes of the state around and set her on the path of sustained and irreversible progress. His supporters believe that he succeeded phenomenally in this regard. His adversaries argue to the contrary. It is the perception of what the facts are that will determine voter behavior to some extent today.

Tinubu’s supporters will ask if the Eko Atlantic City growing magnificently from the bowels of the Atlantic Ocean in Lagos and on which the United State’s largest embassy in the world is currently being built is fiction or reality. They will query if the Lekki Free Trade Zone which houses the Lekki Deep Sea Port and where the Dangote Refinery, one of the largest in the world, is currently under construction in Lagos is not an index of quantum developmental leaps? They will wonder if the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) network that has transformed the transportation landscape of Lagos or the revolutionary Blue and Red Line light rail mass transit schemes are real or just figments of the imagination. They will ask if it is not a demonstrable fact that the Internally Generated Revenue of Lagos State was phenomenally increased from N600 million monthly in 1999 to over N7 billion by 2007 and has risen to at least N50 billion monthly today? Did this happen by chance or as a result of rigorous thinking, diligent planning and effective implementation?

Obi’s supporters applaud him for reportedly saving huge amount of funds for the state in both foreign and local currencies. His critics contend that was completely wrong headed in the face of acute infrastructure deficit. Atiku’s traducers say he did not do enough between 1999 and 2003 to address increased revenue generation by the federal government given his critical role in running the economy. These are some issues that will be at play in voters’ minds in today’s elections. However, beyond such rational calculations, primordial factors such as religion, ethnicity and regionalism will also be critical factors at play.    A transparent and credible electoral process today will be another decisive step in Nigeria’s ongoing march towards her desired democratic Eldorado.