Category: Femi Macaulay

About two months to Nigeria’s presidential inauguration on May 29, alarming allegations of machinations against democracy have intensified.

In the beginning, it may have looked like alarmism. But it is beginning to look unlike alarmism.  The spokesperson for the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), made disturbing allegations, saying there are people engaged in “treasonable and subversive acts,” and involved in “the many plots being contrived to undermine the transition in particular and democracy in general.”

The director of public affairs in Tinubu’s campaign organisation’s media team, Festus Keyamo (SAN), who is also Minister of State for Labour and Employment, said in a statement that these people were “fixated” on “an Interim Government.”   According to him, “Some have made treasonable insinuations and openly called for military take-over. It is for these reasons that they are desperate to incite the people against the incoming government.”

He also said: “We know these persons and their sponsors from within and outside Nigeria and we shall be working closely with the security agencies to apprehend them and bring them to book.”

The Department of State Services (DSS), in a statement by its spokesperson, Peter Afunanya, apparently corroborated these weighty allegations, saying it “considers the plot, being pursued by these entrenched interests, as not only an aberration but a mischievous way to set aside the constitution and undermine civil rule as well as plunge the country into an avoidable crisis.”

Describing the alleged plot as an “illegality totally unacceptable in a democracy,” the security agency added that “The planners, in their many meetings, have weighed various options, which include, among others, to sponsor endless violent mass protests in major cities to warrant a declaration of State of Emergency. Another is to obtain frivolous court injunctions to forestall the inauguration of new executive administrations and legislative houses at the federal and state levels.”

“While its monitoring continues, the DSS will not hesitate to take decisive and necessary legal steps against these misguided elements to frustrate their obnoxious intentions,’’ it warned.

Before the country’s February 25 presidential election won by Tinubu, the DSS had questioned the director of new media, presidential campaign council of APC, Femi Fani-Kayode, concerning his alarming tweet suggesting a possible coup plot. It turned out that his tweet was based on an unverified report attributed to an unreliable medium.   

After this incident, the Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai of APC, in a state broadcast on the Federal Government’s controversial currency redesign policy, said it was meant to ensure that the 2023 elections “do not hold at all, leading to an Interim National Government to be led by a retired Army General.”

He also said there was a plan to “Sustain the climate of shortage of fuel, food and other necessities, leading to mass protests, violence and breakdown of law and order that would provide a fertile foundation for a military take-over.”

Alarmingly, the latest statements from spokespersons for Tinubu and the DSS are in line with previous narratives from Fani-Kayode and El-Rufai. In particular, the security agency’s claims heightened the seriousness of the allegation of conspiracy.

This situation demands that the authorities take strong action against the enemies of democracy who are unwilling to act within the ambit of the law. But the question is: Who are these alleged spoilers? Keyamo and the DSS gave the impression that they knew who the plotters were. If so, they should be named, arrested and prosecuted.   

 The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had announced that Tinubu won the presidential election with 8,794,726 votes. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who had 6, 984,520 votes, and the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, who got 6,101,533 votes, are challenging the election result and seeking judicial intervention to overturn the winner’s victory.

Interestingly, the protesting losers have dissociated themselves from the said conspiracy. The Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Ibrahim Abdullahi, was reported saying the DSS “should immediately go after such persons because it is the right thing to do. What are they still waiting for?”

The chief spokesperson for the LP’s presidential campaign council, Yunusa Tanko, also said if the DSS “has verifiable facts and evidence as regards those who are planning to subvert the will of democracy, they should not hesitate to bring them out as quickly as possible,” adding that the security agency should not “intimidate the people when they are trying to fight for their rights.”

The LP’s insinuation that the DSS allegation of an anti-democratic plot by some persons is an attempt to silence those challenging INEC’s presidential election result was made possible by the agency’s failure to act on claimed intelligence about the alleged conspiracy. The DSS should demonstrate that its allegation is not a fabrication designed to “intimidate” certain targets by taking action against the alleged plotters.   

An Interim National Government (ING) is not strange to Nigerians. But it is an unwelcome monstrosity.  Chief Ernest Shonekan, who died in January 2022, aged 85, was controversially Nigeria’s interim head of state for about three months, August 26, 1993 to November 17, 1993, following the wrongful annulment of the country’s historic June 12, 1993 presidential election by the Gen. Ibrahim Babangida military regime. 

 A prominent boardroom player, Shonekan was an accidental political leader whose administration was widely considered illegitimate; and he faced immense pressure and opposition from several quarters, which ultimately made his position unsustainable.  He was ousted in a palace coup led by Gen. Sani Abacha whose military regime, from 1993 to 1998, was sustained by unprecedented repression.     

Shonekan’s ING was installed by a military dictator.  It was an unelected government. But times have changed. Democracy was restored in Nigeria in 1999, and the country has enjoyed more than two decades of unbroken democratic rule under civilian leaders.   

So, if it is true that anti-democratic forces are plotting to install another ING in the country, in a democratic context, it would not only be a violation of democracy but also an extremely disruptive installation.  

It is not enough to raise the alarm as the DSS and others have done.  The authorities are expected to deal with the alleged conspirators. Failure to do so will cast doubt on the veracity of the allegation.

After the February 25 presidential election, and the victory of president-elect Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), there are political debts to be paid.  

Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai issued a reminder to that effect when he addressed party supporters in Zaria, saying Tinubu should endorse Abbas Tajudeen, the Iyan Zazzau, for the position of Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives.

Tajudeen, representing Zaria Federal Constituency, is the Chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Land Transport. He has been re-elected, and El-Rufai wants him to be Speaker in the 10th National Assembly.

The governor said: “We thank God that our member of the House of Representatives from Zaria, the Iyan Zazzau has won the election.” He told the gathering that he planned to “see Asiwaju in respect of the Speaker.”

“The most important thing I will request from him, if at all I contributed to his success in the election, the only payback is for the Iyan Zazzau to become Speaker,” he added.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had announced that Tinubu won the election with 8,794,726 votes. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who had 6, 984,520 votes, and the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, who got 6,101,533 votes, are challenging the election result.  

Tinubu won 12 states (Benue, Borno, Ekiti, Jigawa, Kogi, Kwara, Niger,  Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Rivers, Zamfara) and came second in 19 states (Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Cross River, Ebonyi, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Lagos, Nasarawa, Osun, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe).

From the results, El-Rufai’s support did not win Tinubu Kaduna State. It is unclear how the governor arrived at the conclusion that his contribution to Tinubu’s victory in the presidential election qualified him to request the president-elect’s endorsement of Tajudeen.  It is puzzling that he presents the request with a sense of entitlement.

If he feels entitled, what should be expected from the governors of the states Tinubu won? Did they do more to support Tinubu’s candidacy? What do they want as payback from the president-elect?  

At a meeting with the party’s senators-elect and House of Representatives members-elect, APC National Chairman Abdullahi Adamu was reported saying, “The news media and especially the social media are full of speculations of some of you jostling for leadership positions in the National Assembly. This is not unusual. People have the right to struggle for positions of leadership for which they believe they are eminently qualified. 

“But we, in the National Working Committee of the party, are not comfortable with the tone adopted by those who seek those offices. Those offices are not tribal or sectional rights and must not be so portrayed.”  

This shows that the party is faced with a problem, and needs to deal with entitled members who believe it is their turn to occupy leadership positions in the National Assembly.

Adamu added that “whatever sharing formula the party and the president-elect arrives at will be fair, just, equitable and satisfy the majority of our members.” It remains to be seen if the party’s formula will satisfy members who have an entitlement mentality.   

Reports said a faction of the Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide, the apex Igbo socio-cultural association, called for a “national healing process” after Tinubu emerged as president-elect.  Its Secretary-General, Mazi Okechukwu Isiguzoro, in a statement, said “he should ensure that Nigerians, especially Ndigbo, are accommodated in the distribution of public amenities and provide an enabling environment for businesses to thrive in the country.” 

The group also called for “the formation of Government of National Unity (GNU),” saying, “These are the ingredients that will soothe frayed nerves and restore peace across the country.”

It is strange that the group is seeking special treatment for Igbo people, and a so-called government of national unity. This is another instance of entitlement mentality.

Tinubu said: “There has been talk of a government of national unity. My aim is higher than that. I seek a government of national competence. In selecting my government, I shall not be weighed down by considerations extraneous to ability and performance. The day for political gamesmanship is long gone.

“I shall assemble competent men and women and young people from across Nigeria to build a safer, more prosperous, and just Nigeria. There shall be young people. Women shall be prominent. Whether your faith leads you to pray in a church or mosque will not determine your place in government. Character and competence will.”

This suggests the president-elect recognises that only the people should feel entitled. Nigerians want a better society, and the majority of the voters voted for the presidential candidate they believed could make things better in the country.   

Poverty, for instance, is a big issue. The national Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in November 2022 showed that poor governance provides enabling conditions for multidimensional poverty, which is beyond monetary poverty. It underlined the importance of good governance in the country’s pursuit of a better society.  

The report said 133 million Nigerians were multidimensionally poor. This figure represents 63 percent of the country’s population of more than 200 million. Three out of five Nigerians live in poverty, according to the report.

Poor governance in the country is attributable to multidimensional authorities, and tackling poverty demands action from the federal, state and local governments. It can be said, ironically, that poverty in the country is governance-driven. So, anti-poverty solutions must be governance-driven.

The United Nations (UN) defines extreme poverty as “a condition characterised by severe deprivation of basic human needs, including food, safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, health, shelter, education and information. It depends not only on income but also on access to services.”

 This definition captures not only monetary poverty but also multidimensional poverty, and how “deprivations in basic amenities” can be a means of assessing poverty.

After Tinubu’s election, it’s payback time. It is understandable that there are people in his camp who expect to be paid back for their efforts to get him elected. But beyond this, better times under Tinubu will be the ultimate payback for millions of Nigerians.

It’s a familiar drama. It’s not over till it’s over.  The major losers in Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election are seeking judicial intervention to overturn the winner’s victory. This means big business and big money for some of the country’s big-time lawyers who will be involved in the legal battle on both sides.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had announced that the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, won the election with 8,794,726 votes.   The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who had 6, 984,520 votes, and the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, who got 6,101,533 votes, are challenging the election result.

The PDP’s vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa, described the election as “a sham,” saying it was “never free and fair.” Atiku asked his legal team, comprising 19 Senior Advocates of Nigeria (SANs), to “establish the claim of illegality in the February 25 presidential election and reclaim the mandate of the Nigerian people.”

The LP’s National Secretary, Umar Farouk, was reported saying “We have more than 20 SANs that are willing to participate and offer their services for the renewal and emergence of a new Nigeria…we have started ‘trekking’ to the court.”

The APC’s National Legal Adviser, Ahmad El-Marzuq, said in a statement that the party had appointed a legal team consisting of 12 SANs, who were chosen based on their “requisite expertise and experience.” He urged party members to support the team “in its effort to defend the will and mandate of the people.”  

But the APC Presidential Campaign Council’s Director of Media and Publicity, Bayo Onanuga, was reported saying “what we have in the public arena is just a partial list. Altogether, I think there are about 50 of them in all.”

Strangely, one of the APC’s listed lawyers, Pius A. Akubo (SAN), issued a statement, saying he “had no prior knowledge of the said appointment,” and had “not received any official communication on the subject matter hitherto.” He added that he “was taken by surprise to hear of the said appointment via social media.” “In the circumstance, and for personal reasons, I hereby decline the said appointment,” he announced.

According to reports before Akubo’s rejection of the role, a total of 89 SANs will be involved in the legal battle on both sides. This number is baffling. Why do the losers need the number of SANs said to be in their legal teams? Why does the president-elect need the number of SANs said to be in his legal team?  Do the numbers matter?

Interestingly, the chief spokesman of the Tinubu-Shettima Presidential Campaign Council, Festus Keyamo, was reported saying, “It is not a competition. “I am a lawyer and can tell you specifically that the numbers don’t matter. It is all about the quality of evidence.”

If numbers don’t matter, why is the number of SANs involved in the legal battle reported to be nearly 100? Given that they are SANs, it can be reasonably expected that their charges will reflect their high status in the legal profession. In other words, their services won’t come cheap.

Who will pay these lawyers? Will the burden of payment be on the concerned politicians or their parties, or both? If the politicians will solely pay the lawyers’ fees, it raises questions about their financial power.

Under the Electoral Act 2022, the maximum election spending permissible for a presidential candidate is N5bn. The electoral act defines election spending as “expenses incurred by a political party within the period from the date notice is given by the commission to conduct an election up to and including the polling day in respect of the particular election.”

But post-election spending on election disputes is unlimited.  So, a presidential candidate/political party can spend more than what is allowable for an election on disputes after the election.   

It is unclear how much the services of the SANs hired to represent Atiku, Obi and Tinubu will cost the politicians or their parties, or both.  Since there is no formal ceiling, it can be said that the sky is the limit.

This adds another dimension to Nigeria’s money politics. Money is a possible influential factor not only before and during elections; it can be a potent post-election force, determining the status and number of lawyers engaged by politicians for election disputes.

The legal battle means that the presidential election, considered to be lost and won, has been extended. The extension of the election means that it is unfinished business until resolved by judicial authorities.

It remains to be seen how those challenging the presidential election result will prove that the contest was rigged. Former INEC chairman Prof. Mahmud Jega argued in an article: “Allegations that APC rigged the election also fall flat because it lost the biggest states, namely Lagos, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, even though all of them have APC state governors, all of whom are staunchly loyal to Tinubu.”

 He also argued: “In terms of vote banks, what is Imo, Edo or Adamawa to these states? Why should anyone go rigging elections in some small states when he could rig up figures in the biggest ones and win by a large margin?

“If they could help it, why should ten APC governors, APC National Chairman and Director General of the APC campaign suffer the embarrassment of failing to deliver their states? Why should Tinubu himself suffer the embarrassment of failing to win outright in Lagos, long alleged to be his political fiefdom?”

 These are reasoned arguments. But there are counter-arguments. So, in a way, the outcome of the electoral contest, which should be determined by votes, has been reduced to a clash of opinions to be resolved judicially.  

When then President Goodluck Jonathan conceded defeat after the 2015 presidential election, without a protest, it was unprecedented in the country’s electoral history. At an event in Abuja two years later, he elaborated on why he took that path. “I conceded defeat without a fight because I wanted to set a standard for our democracy, going forward,” he said.

“My aim then was to change the narrative and prove that election-related litigations should no longer define Nigeria’s democracy. People must not always go to court and obtain judgments before elections in Nigeria are declared complete.

“I thought that it wouldn’t be out of place if we got to that stage where those who lost elections will be able to congratulate those who won.”

The legal battle means that the 2023 presidential election, considered lost and won, has been extended. The extension of the election means that it is unfinished business until resolved by judicial authorities.

Alarmism is unwanted as Nigeria approaches the presidential election scheduled for February 25, which has been described as the country’s most consequential election ever.

In the political silly season, politicians tend to say things that are far-fetched. But there is no excuse for alarmist utterances. So, it was in order that the State Security Service (SSS) questioned the director of new media, Presidential Campaign Council of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Femi Fani-Kayode, concerning his alarming tweet suggesting a possible coup plot. 

He had tweeted about “an alleged meeting between the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, and some military generals.”

 The military denied the allegation, and the PDP presidential campaign council demanded an investigation of the claim.

After a session with interrogators, Fani-Kayode sang a different tune. It turned out that his tweet was based on an unverified report attributed to an unreliable medium.   “During the course of the discussion,” he said, “I think it is fair for me to mention one or two things. It is self-evident that some of the things that were said were regrettable.

“Why do I say so? When news comes out, perhaps one should not have simply said it, believed it and accepted it, even if it is true. Perhaps another course could have been taken… Perhaps, let me ask the authority privately, let me find out before I say anything. I think I will concede that sometimes we have to be a little circumspect, especially given that—as they pointed out, the medium that issued out the statement is faceless.

“We can’t rely on that medium. When I say something on my Twitter, the whole world listens. What I said really sent shock waves, and some people were very hurt. I say it is regrettable and I must say that was a mistake.”

He was reported saying his judgement was “clouded by the fog of war.” But an election is not war, and should not be viewed as war. The mentality of “election is war” is bad for democracy and should be condemned.  

 Fani-Kayode is, of course, not the only Nigerian politician with such a warped perspective on elections. Indeed, many of the country’s political players are fixated on the abnormal concept of elections as war by other means.

 His apparent remorse regarding his alarmist tweet is a positive sign of his improvement, but it does not necessarily mean that he has dropped his warrior approach to elections. 

According to him, the SSS is in the process of deciding whether he should be arraigned for his misconduct. This should be a lesson to political alarmists.

The security agency should also identify and probe the operators of the medium that published the unsubstantiated information which the politician recklessly helped to spread. 

The governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, added fuel to the fire in a state broadcast on February 16. In his response to “the prolonged fuel shortage and the difficulties occasioned by the so-called “currency redesign” policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria,” he made alarmist claims suggesting strong divisions within the ruling party.

El-Rufai alleged that the controversial currency redesign policy “was conceived and sold to the President by officials who completely lost out in the Gubernatorial and Presidential Primaries of the APC in June 2022.”  

According to him, “Once Asiwaju Bola Tinubu emerged as the candidate in June 2022, and subsequently did not pick one of them as his running mate, this currency redesign policy was conceived to ensure that the APC presidential candidate is deprived of what they alleged is a humongous war chest. They also sought to achieve any one or more of following objectives:

 ”Create a nationwide shortage of cash so that citizens are incited to vote against APC candidates across the board resulting in massive losses for the Party in all the elections;

 ”Ensure that the cash crunch is so serious, along with the contrived and enduring fuel shortage existing since September 2022, that the 2023 Elections do not hold at all, leading to an Interim National Government to be led by a retired Army General; 

“Sustain the climate of shortage of fuel, food and other necessities, leading to mass protests, violence and breakdown of law and order that would provide a fertile foundation for a military take-over.”

He made these allegations perhaps with conviction, but they were unconvincing because they were uncorroborated.  He should know that such weighty allegations need the weight of evidence for believability.  

Given his status as governor, he is unlikely to be invited for clarifications by the relevant security agencies. But that does not make his alarmism any less condemnable. 

Critically, his argument suggests that President Buhari was deceived into endorsing the currency change. But rather than redeem the president, this ultimately discredits him by presenting him as a puppet. Such an argument cannot exculpate the president. El-Rufai’s conspiracy claim is built on double standards, excluding Buhari but blaming the people around him.    

The president’s spokesperson responded, describing as a “joke” the allegation that there was a plan to install an interim national government. The Senior Special Assistant to the President (Media & Publicity), Garba Shehu, said in a statement that “there is absolutely no truth to the claim that President Muhammadu Buhari is working towards an interim government or even worse, the truncation of democracy – democracy that he has helped to keep alive not only here at home, in West Africa but throughout the continent.”

He added: “The talk of interim government and truncation of democracy is way off the mark. Those who peddle it stand to gain nothing- nothing at all -but the creation of panic and the incitement of the public against the federal government.”

Then he dropped a bombshell, saying “It is another dangerous dimension by people who are afraid that they may lose their elections.”  

This reinforces the observation that the ruling party is going into the elections divided against itself. It remains to be seen whether this won’t affect its performance in the elections.

Interestingly, the alarmists, in both cases, are members of the APC. The first one made allegations against the PDP; the second made allegations against fellow APC members. Alarmism is not the way to prepare for elections.

It is thought-provoking that the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, is in denial about the problematic deadline for old naira notes. Redesigned N200, N500 and N1000 notes introduced last December are replacing old notes that, according to the CBN’s schedule, would cease to be regarded as legal tender after January 31.

 But on the eve of the day, there is strong evidence that the implementation has been untidy. After the apex bank announced its plan to change naira notes, it should have taken steps to ensure a smooth implementation. The evidence does not show that it was sufficiently prepared for the change. It can be said that the naira change was hastily introduced, and the apex bank should have known that it is better to make haste slowly.

The scale of the problem attracted the attention of the National Assembly. Emefiele’s failure to cooperate with federal legislators on the issue has not helped matters. He apparently shunned two invitations from an ad-hoc committee of the House of Representatives set up to look into the reported scarcity of the new naira notes.

 Speaker of the House of Representatives Femi Gbajabiamila said “the summons of CBN was simply based on a motion to clarify a gap and to know where the problem is.  Whereas on one hand, bankers are saying that they don’t have sufficient new notes to dispense, on the other hand, the regulator, the CBN is saying that they do have enough notes to dispense.  How can we get these monies to the public?”

The question demands an answer. Gbajabiamila said the legislators “will invoke the provision of Section 89 to compel the presence of the CBN governor.”

It is unclear why Emefiele is apparently uncooperative. The posture is bad for his image. There is no doubt that the new naira notes are in short supply, and many Nigerians are affected by the shortage. This cannot be the CBN’s intention.  Or is it?

The president of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Ayuba Wabba, observed that “Right now, our commercial banks are culpable of inflicting hardship on Nigerians, go to the ATM points and you will see what is happening. Most of them are not even dispensing.  You see many queues.”

The situation has generated calls for an extension of the deadline from several quarters, including the NLC, the National Assembly, the Governors Forum, the Bank Customers Association of Nigeria and the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). 

Curiously, just about three days after the introduction of redesigned naira notes on December 15, a report published in Sunday Tribune said “at a party in Ibadan, Oyo State… a woman was seen freely hawking the newly redesigned wads of N200 bank notes.” The newspaper also said it could “authoritatively report that large wads of the new notes have saturated party venues with hawkers charging N200 on N1,000.” 

This happened amid complaints “that several bank branches had run out of the small quantities of the newly redesigned naira notes allocated to them from their head offices…” the newspaper said.  It was puzzling that currency hawkers had the new notes in abundance when several bank branches had allegedly run out of the notes soon after they were introduced. 

There are indications that the banking authorities failed to address this anomaly. The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), last week, reported that “some persons have been seen hawking the new notes at Dadi Motor Park, Sabon Gari-Zaria, Kaduna State, at exorbitant prices.”

One Thomas Damina, for instance, was reported saying he bought a wad of the new banknotes, N20,000 for N25, 000. He needed to pay farm workers, he explained, and had “no option than to buy from cash hawkers” because people in his community were “rejecting the old notes” and the new money was “not available at the banks.”  

According to the report, trading in naira notes is in contravention of Section 21 of the CBN Act, 2007, which is punishable under Section 21 Subsection 4 of the Act. But the report said buying and selling of the new naira notes went on freely close to the police station at Kwangila, Sabon Gari-Zaria.

Where do the currency sellers get the new notes from, amid the reported scarcity? Who are those supplying the sellers with the notes? Why is it easy for them to get the notes? Why is it difficult for the authorities to deal with the situation?

The CBN had said the naira was redesigned in order to control the currency in circulation, manage inflation and tackle counterfeiting. Emefiele had also said “the CBN is convinced that the incidents of terrorism and kidnapping would be minimised as access to the large volume of money outside the banking system used as source of funds for ransom payments will begin to dry up.” It remains to be seen whether redesigning the naira will achieve these aims.

Why has the CBN refused to review the deadline despite widespread reports of scarcity of the new notes and the consequent social difficulties? This refusal to adjust to the reality of the situation is unrealistic and unreasonable. Indeed, it can be said that the apex bank’s rigid position on the deadline amounts to defiance of the Nigerian public.

Currency change should not cause chaos. But the introduction of the new naira evidently brought avoidable confusion. There is no doubt that the CBN needs to get its act together. Why the rush to do it within one and a half months? What is to be gained by sticking to that schedule? What is to be lost by reviewing the schedule?

It is a cause for concern that the Governor of Kano State, Abdullahi Ganduje, wrote President Muhammadu Buhari, asking him to postpone his visit to the state, “for security reasons,” following complaints by Kano residents who are feeling the pain of the scarcity of the new naira notes.

This is perhaps the ultimate sign that there is a need for presidential intervention. If Emefiele is inflexible, Buhari has the power to make him follow the path of reason and extend the deadline reasonably. He should use his power wisely.     

This piece was written before the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on January 29, announced a 10-day extension of the deadline from January 31 to February 10.

Releasing Nnamdi Kanu, the detained leader of the proscribed separatist group, Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), is not a simple matter. It is a complicated issue.

Anambra State Governor Charles Soludo, who intervened in the case, sounded simplistic when he made a “passionate appeal” to the federal government to release the detainee “unconditionally.” He also spoke simplistically when he said: “If he cannot be released unconditionally, I want him released to me and I will stand surety for him.”

The governor was reported to have made the comments at a political event organised by his party, the All-Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), on January 14, and he was likely influenced by political considerations and circumstances.   

Interestingly, he tried to guarantee that Kanu would not take flight if released conditionally, saying, “I will house him here in Awka.” He also said: “We need him released to end insecurity in the South-east.”

The problem is that history may repeat itself should Kanu be released to Soludo. It is noteworthy that, in November 2018, the Federal High Court, Abuja, had ordered Kanu’s sureties to pay N100 million each to the court for failing to produce him in court since he was granted bail in April 2017.

The three sureties were:  Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, a Jewish High Priest, Emmanu El- Salom Oka BenMadu, and an accountant, Mr Tochukwu Uchendu.  The sureties had challenged the trial court’s order. 

It is ironic that Soludo sees Kanu as a solution to insecurity in the Southeast.  His group is known for using terroristic methods in its fight for an independent “Biafra land” made up of Nigeria’s five Southeast states, and parts of the South-south geo-political zone. In 2020, IPOB illegally launched its Eastern Security Network (ESN), which it described as “a vigilance group.”

Notably, the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Usman Alkali Baba, last year, accused “the IPOB and ESN” and “the pro-Yoruba secessionists” of working to stop elections in the Southeast and Southwest respectively. His representative made the accusation before the House of Representatives Ad-hoc Committee Investigating the Attacks on Offices and Facilities of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).  He highlighted attacks on INEC facilities in Osun and Ogun states in the Southwest, and Ebonyi, Imo and Enugu states in the Southeast.

The IGP, represented by the Deputy Inspector General (DIG) in charge of the Department of Operations, Mustapha Dandaura, said the Southeast secessionists “have been attacking our personnel, they have been killing our personnel. They have been retrieving arms from members of the security agencies, not only the police – the military and other paramilitary organisations that are there.”

Does Soludo expect Kanu to stop his fight for Biafra? Is Kanu ready to do so? From all indications, insecurity in the Southeast is mainly due to IPOB’s activities, and it would require a reformed Kanu to reform the group.

But there are signs that IPOB has become a Frankenstein monster beyond the control of the people who created it. This makes the group more dangerous. It is unclear who is in charge of the group now, considering the enforcement of the five-day sit-at-home declared by Finland-based Biafra campaigner Simon Ekpa, even after Kanu had opposed it. 

There was strong evidence of divisions within the group as zealous enforcers ignored Kanu’s disclaimer, and violently implemented Ekpa’s controversial order that Southeast residents should stay at home from December 9 to 14, 2022.

The question of leadership and control of the group is critical. Ekpa’s move, and its outcome, show that it should not be taken for granted that Kanu is in charge.  So, it is uncertain that Kanu’s release will help to put an end to insecurity in the region. Ultimately, the authorities must demonstrate capacity to uphold law and order in the Southeast.

The Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, said he was “not in receipt of any application arising from the public statement made by the governor, either through the judicial process or extended to me as the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF).”  He explained that “when a matter is pending before the court, the right channel through which any request or perhaps concession can be presented for consideration is through the judicial process.” This further shows that Soludo had approached the matter simplistically.

IPOB argued that Soludo’s call for Kanu’s unconditional release was belated, adding that the matter had also gone beyond “the issue of surety or no surety.”  Its Media and Publicity Secretary, Emma Powerful, in a statement, pointed out that the Court of Appeal, Abuja, on October 13, 2022, “discharged and acquitted the leader of IPOB and all the remaining eight-count amended charges preferred against him, and consequently directed for his unconditional release.”

This is not the whole truth. The Court of Appeal, Abuja, on October 28, 2022, ordered that the enforcement of the judgment releasing Kanu be put on hold pending the resolution of the federal government’s appeal filed at the Supreme Court. So, it is untrue that Kanu is being detained unlawfully, as IPOB claims. It is also untrue that the federal government is “in grave contempt of the orders of its own court,” as the group claims. 

Kanu was first arrested in October 2015, and granted bail in April 2017 in the course of his trial for “alleged offences of conspiracy to commit acts of treasonable felony and other related offences.”

He fled the country in September 2017 following “Operation Python Dance,” a military exercise in the Southeast during which “rampaging soldiers” allegedly invaded his house in Afara-Ukwu Ibeku, Umuahia, Abia State.

 He had reappeared in Israel a year later, in October 2018. He had grabbed the headlines yet again with a tweet in January 2019, saying, “I am back in the UK to continue our excellent work to liberate #Biafra from the pit of darkness, Nigeria.”

He was re-arrested in Kenya and brought back to Nigeria in June 2021, about four years after he mysteriously disappeared from the country.  

Kanu’s case is multidimensionally complicated, and the complications are striking.