The Nation Newspaper

Category: Columnists

  • Tax reforms imperatives and citizens’ expectations

    Tax reforms imperatives and citizens’ expectations

    About 1 year ago, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu set up the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms with a mandate to overhaul the fiscal policy framework and system and also the overhaul of Nigeria’s Tax structure and system for better socio-economic performance and accountability. The decision by Mr. President came at a time that all Nigerians know that we are facing the vagaries of having to use about 96% of national income on payment of a rising debt stock over the past 10 years culminating in where we are today which largely due to corruption, dwindling revenue, lack of fiscal discipline, inefficient and unfair tax policy framework and system, and wasteful style of governments at Federal and state levels,  which lead to our inability to manage our resources and budgets and spending. The strategic objective is to bring in a significant increase in tax collections considering the fact that only about 40% of Nigerians and Nigerian businesses are taxed. 

    For almost 1 year since the inauguration of the Presidential Committee, the Committee has been doing its work under the Chairmanship of Mr. Taiwo Oyedele. The Committee has been briefing and enlightening Nigerians on the rationale behind the reforms and the benefits thereof. Interestingly until about one month ago, almost 11 months later, and only last month after Mr. The President transmitted the Bill for consideration of the National Assembly, the Nigerians Governors Forum and the National Economic Council asked that the Bill be withdrawn for “further consultation. In addition, the Northern States Governors, some legislators, politicians, and the northern elite have also suddenly been kicking against the Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms proposal.

     I am from the North and I am very disappointed with the outlook and mindset of the leadership of the northern elites. In this particular instance, the northern governments have a highly transactional mindset and are not strategic. For instance, if you look at some of the arguments, particularly the issue of derivation; I am a proponent of the allocation of resources based on derivation. That is the only thing that will drive productivity. This rent-seeking commission collection attitude cannot move us forward in this nation. Allocation by derivation is the only principle that will chase out people who have no business in government. That way, anyone that wants to lead in Nigeria, must have the mindset of value creation, value protection, and value innovation, to successfully lead the people. Otherwise, there is no intelligence, brilliance, or value addition, if all that politicians can do is just go to Abuja and collect monthly allocation (FAAC), in many cases is not even utilized for the citizens of this Country.

    Read Also: Tinubu, Macron foster economic ties at Nigerian-France Business Council in Paris

     Part of the argument that is being canvassed with regards to derivation that I am very okay with, as a Muslim, is for example, we say in Islam consumption and trading or benefiting from the trade in alcohol is forbidden (haram). But the governors go and collect it in the Agbada and put it and go away. Right? And if we are going to follow that Islamic doctrine, we will say oh some States that claim to be practicing some form of Shari’a, oh, in that case, they also eat “haram”? Or is it not haram anymore? In my view, this kind of position appears like double standards. It is also worthy of note that taxable components like betting and gambling, have been given a high notch of tax collection, which I consider a welcome provision. So in essence, overall, I see some kind of balance in the proposal. Are there areas that need some tweaks, deletion, or negotiation within the proposed Bill? My answer is YES. And that is why I expect the Governors through the Senators and members of the House of Representatives to push for those necessary points to be made so that there will be robust debates and intense negotiations to arrive at new Fiscal Policy and Tax reforms that will be acceptable to the majority of Nigerians, for the greater good. But the outright refusal to even read, digest, and debate this matter even at the Governors level in my opinion is not good for our polity.

     I expected that Governors, political leaders and elites to discuss at a subnational level, and push the actual people’s positions.  I was expecting robust and highly intelligent discussions, debates, and negotiations either through the Senate or through the stakeholders so that we can have a better tax system. For example, we should be having conversations about yes, how we should tax the rich more than the poor and ensure that it is truly and fairly applicable within the framework of that bill. For example, I disagree that 25% from someone who earns a monthly N1.5million is not supposed to be because as far as I’m concerned with what has happened since President Tinubu came to power, is that the value of N1.5 million is less than $1,000. So, these are the issues I would have loved to see us debating and trashing out and upscaling and finetuning. But we should throw the entire Bill out. It will be like throwing away the baby with the bath water.

     Meanwhile, let me offer some advice for the northern governors. Northern Nigeria is the food basket of the nation. Why don’t you sit down and look at the entire food value chain of the food Northern Nigeria produces for Nigeria, i.e. Grains, Mutton, Beef, vegetables like Onions, fresh pepper, etc.? About 65% or more of the food is consumed in Nigeria and also some parts of the West African sub-region. So why don’t we extract value out of that from a derivation point of view, for example, get consumption tax value from the food items out so long as the item is going out of a State like Kano, Kaduna or Borno or Benue or Niger for example? Those are the kind of conversations I would like us to be having. 

    That being said, I align with the position of Mr. President that the National Assembly should process the Bill in line with the provisions of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, as amended. We cannot reinvent the wheel. The Governors and all Nigerians have representatives at the Red and Green Chambers of the National Assembly. Nigerians are keen on the Governors or the “Elites” can influence the Legislators are representatives of Nigerians to ensure that whatever it is they want to happen in the interest of Nigerians, happens

     Urgent and drastic institutional reforms which hitherto could not be done by previous administrations of the past 10 years must be undertaken as a matter of priority, for any meaningful progress to be achieved in this dispensation.  The commendable decisive actions taken so far by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu are good step in the right direction as part of the steps to institutional reforms in the right direction, that could ensure that we get out of this socio-economic logjam and the best way forward for Nigeria.

      TAX COLLECTION WILL NOT BE ENOUGH

    However, it is worthy of note that the issues of revenue, debt, and resource management are beyond the FIRS. Therefore, to my mind, the issue of revenue collection and management should be expanded beyond tax. This is because when we focus so much on tax, it will appear that in the end the downtrodden citizens of this Country will be made to pay more. The strategy should be all-encompassing. The strategy should be all-encompassing.

     Increasing the tax net to go beyond the current 40% of the population, but by applying the principle of equity, fairness, and justice in considering the informal sector which constitutes almost 80% of Nigerians, albeit they are constrained by the current global and national insecurity and socio-economic headwinds. And to also note the over 133 multidimensionally poor Nigerians.

     The worries citizens and their expectations

    Dividends of Democracy: People need to see that the Government is actually using the taxes collected and other national and state incomes to add value to the quality of life and properties of citizens, add value to governance, and to and for the progress of and for the growth and development of Nigeria.

     The Communication Strategy of Mr. President and the MDAs in this case the FIRS should be transparent, show clarity, and be concise on what they are doing with revenues collected., That will engender confidence and trust in the citizens which will encourage citizens to see reasons why they should pay taxes

      Transparency and Accountability: Here again, transparency is critical, impactful projects and initiatives are critical, and constructive engagements with the citizens are key. If the big businesses and corporations pay the appropriate taxes people know that they are paying, and the government is delivering dividends or democracy, it is easier to make individuals, Nano, small, and medium-scale enterprises (NSME) pay taxes.

  • Russian war on Ukraine: Need to avoid global conflict

    Russian war on Ukraine: Need to avoid global conflict

    The incoming president of the United States, Donald J. Trump during his recently won election promised to end the Russian war on Ukraine within 24 hours of being in the White House which should be on January 21, 2025. The world waits with bated breath for this magical solution and surprise for this complex conflict. No one expects a sudden end to a conflict that began incrementally from about February and March 2014 when Russia annexed the Black Sea port of Crimea which for hundreds of years had served as the Russian empire’s winter port connection to the world but which had been handed over to Ukraine when the Soviet Empire was dissolved in 1994. As part of a post-Soviet era settlement, it appears the Americans and its NATO allies had given the remnant of the Soviet Empire-Russia, that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe which was previously part of the Warsaw pact but this promise was obeyed in its breach. NATO did not only expand into Eastern Germany, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and into former Soviet territories in the Baltic viz; Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia and now into neutral Sweden and Finland.

    It is argued that it is in this situation of Russia feeling it is hemmed in and surrounded that President Vladimir Putin is able to whip up nationalist sentiments in Russia in his war in Ukraine. Putin and many Russians do not see Ukraine as a separate country from their home because some of their former rulers were either Ukrainians or partly Ukrainian.  Substantial part of Eastern Ukraine is populated by ethnic Russians that President Putin likes to call “Russia abroad”.  This is a dangerous belief by Putin who seems to feel wherever there are Russians must be part of the Russian motherland! The case becomes more complex because it appears substantial portion of Ukrainians who are not ethnic Russians want a separate country of their own.

    Much lives have been lost in the war,  in fact hundreds of thousands of young men and others  have been lost as collateral damage during bombing raids and shelling and many millions of Ukrainians have been scattered all over the world in the USA and Canada and all over Europe and displaced in their own country itself.

    The peace plan being touted by Donald Trump and others want to concede the territories already captured by Russia to it which is about a quarter of the country in the East and South East. How would President Zelenskyy sell this to his compatriots without being seen as a traitor? On the other hand, President Vladimir Putin has drawn the red line beyond which he would never allow enemies to cross. It is not even likely he would accept the rump of Ukraine joining NATO. If this is the peace plan Trump wants to ram down the throat of Ukraine, my guess is that the war would continue until the Ukrainians are totally defeated or are made to surrender after the Americans under Trump cuts off their supply of weapons. Would America want to lose face among their allies in Europe and elsewhere where dependence on their commitment would mean nothing especially in such places like Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and the Middle East?

    Read Also: Tinubu, Kyari get kudos for PH refinery

    This is one of the reasons why outgoing president, Joe Biden as a last minute action allowed the Ukrainian government to start using American long range weapons with about 190 kilometres range to hit the Russian army within Russia something he had said he would not do for months despite President Zelenskyy’s plea. When the first salvo of these weapons were released, President Putin asked his military to respond with a new kind of weapons with multiple warheads just short of nuclear weapons which apparently no anti-missile weapons in the west could intercept. He also said he would use these new weapons against any country that supplies the long range weapons used against Russia to Ukraine. Does he mean he was prepared to attack France, Britain and the United States without precipitating a global nuclear conflict and catastrophe? The world is at this brink and most of us do not know that a mistake in one little corner of Europe can again plunge the world into a global conflagration the cause of which we know nothing of.

    Yet, the problem seems so intractable that compromise seems impossible while absolute victory or defeat seems unacceptable to many involved in finding a solution. Meanwhile, the United Nations that was set up for times like this have been rendered impotent by the super powers who prefer to resolve conflicts in which they are involved outside the purview of the United Nations thus reducing the global body to a mere talking shop and international treaties and agreements are reduced to mere chiffon de papier. Even though we in the third world can smugly say we are not directly involved, but the world is a global village. What affects one affects all others. If there were to be war in which the global environment is poisoned through the use of nuclear weapons, in the words of President John F Kennedy “the living will envy the dead” because the environment would have been so poisoned by radioactive fallout that whatever plants or food that survived would not be fit for human consumption and civilization, according to the nuclear scientists, Albert Einstein and Robert Oppenheimer human civilization would have ended. This possible scenario and end to human civilization is what a few deranged politicians are toying with in order to satisfy personal or national ego. It behoves the leaders of countries not directly involved in Africa, Asia and Latin America to stand up for the rest of the world.

  • The more, the merrier

    The more, the merrier

    It is a thing of joy that that the old Port Harcourt Refining Company (PHRC) has started working again. It had been moribund for five years. Along the way, every plan to resuscitate it failed not because of a lack of will, but sabotage by those who never wanted anything good for the country.

    The saboteurs wanted the country to remain a perpetual importer of fuel, despite having four refineries then that could refine the crude that was and is still produced locally. With the coming of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery (DPR), the country now has five refining companies. Out of this lot, none was working until Dangote came on stream a few months ago.

    With PHRC joining DPR, the country now has two functioning refineries with enough capacities to give us fuel for domestic use and ease the pain of recurring product shortage which has caused Nigerians a lot of stress. The gain is now here. There is no gain without pain, so goes the saying. The PHRC has returned at a good time. Its return might have been timed to coincide with the working of DPR for good measure.

    There is a positive side to two refineries working simultaneously. The impact will be felt nationwide. Though the PHRC is for now working at 70 percent of its installed capacity, which it plans to raise to 90 in no distant time, in combination with Dangote, which is also yet to start working at full capacity, both refineries are capable of producing enough fuel for domestic use, with some certainly left for export.

    The return of PHRC is a blessing because of the timing of its return which caught saboteurs unawares. Unlike in the past when its return date was announced ahead of time, its managers probably changed tactics so as to beat the saboteurs in their game. The nation just woke up on Tuesday to the cheery news of the refinery’s return and the loading of products at the plant. It was ingenious of the men behind the refinery’s return. It is not everything that you plan to do that you talk about ahead of time.

    The Yoruba put it succinctly: it is not every apparel that you dry outside. There are certain things that you keep to yourself because we do not know which lizard has abdominal pains, even though they all lie on their stomachs. The managers have learnt their lessons after years of announcing the planned return of the refinery and not meeting the scheduled date. This is all over now. PHRC has bounced back and there is jubilation in the land. Beyond the euphoria, there is still much work to be done.

    Read Also: Tinubu, Kyari get kudos for PH refinery

    The refinery must remain working and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) must do everything to ensure that it does not become moribund again, to the extent of remaining idle for another five years. A lot of money and resources were pumped into reviving the refinery. These should not go to waste again because of mismanagement of the plant. The return of PHRC should be the beginning of a more effective and efficient supply of products across the country. Nigerians have suffered for too long for products which are in their backyards, yet are not easily accessible.

    The least NNPCL can do now is to ensure that the people get these products – petrol, diesel and kerosene – especially kerosene which is poor specific, as they say, at minimal price after deducting the cost of production and margin for profit. Dangote has already reduced its ex-depot price, that is the cost of selling to marketers to N970 per litre from N990. The refinery set for competition. This is why it is good to have many players in any business. The more they are, the better and merrier in terms of gains for the businesses and the end users.

    As President Bola Tinubu said while congratulating NNPCL on the return of PHRC, the next stop is to get Kaduna and Warri refineries back on stream too. It is pathetic to have four refineries and all will be down at the same time. The suffering for fuel was self-inflicted. It is high time the government removed this affliction once-and-for-all by getting the other refineries to work again. If they resume work, it will ease the people’s long time suffering. Their pain will be replaced with gain, enormous gain that will make them forget what they went through in the past for fuel.

  • Egberun Samu…

    Egberun Samu…

    Offenders try to run away from the consequences of their actions. In so doing, they forget that they can only run, but cannot hide. In my growing up days, elders usually cautioned us against the folly of such an action. “You cannot run away from your sin”, they said. Over the years, I have come to realise the truth in their advice. How long can any person run from his sin? How long? Former Kogi State governor Yahaya Bello is in a better position to answer this question.

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    After playing hide-and-seek with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), he has finally given himself up to answer questions on his time in office. Bello reported to the EFCC Headquarters in Abuja on Tuesday, just as he did sometime ago in September. His latest action might have been informed by the Supreme Court’s decision that the EFCC is constitutionally established to try corrupt cases across board. With him now in EFCC’s net, it is left for the agency to come up with its case against him.

    The lesson in this episode is that no matter how long an offender’s legs are, they cannot be longer than the arms of the law. Egberun Samu, ko le sa mo Olorun l’owo, so goes the saying. Thus, Egberun Yahaya, ko le sa mo EFCC lowo. Meaning a thousand Yahaya cannot run away from EFCC.

  • What a ‘reversal’!

    What a ‘reversal’!

    On Tuesday, I got an alert from GTCO, crediting my account with N20,000. The bank claimed that the transaction was in respect of the N30,000 which I transferred from my Sterling Bank to GTCO account for which I was never credited on November 4. How can a N30,000 transfer be reduced to N20,000 when I never withdrew from the money? Anyway, how can I withdraw from funds that I was never credited with in the first place?

    Read Also: Tinubu, Kyari get kudos for PH refinery

    I do not know the parameters that GTCO used in deciding to credit me with N20,000 after debiting me for a failed N30,000 transaction. Part of the alert reads: RE-REV/926134431808926134104434062805*********0012E-2024-11-13

    Amount: NGN 20000

    Value Date: 2024-11-26

    Time of Transaction: 6:27:14PM.

    GTCO must be joking if it thinks I will accept N20000 for its failure to credit me with the actual amount of N30000 that I transferred to my account over three weeks ago. The bank should just credit my account with the right amount and apologise for wasting my time by its inefficiency. So much for a bank that parades itself as ‘Guaranty Trust’. What a misnomer!

  • Port Harcourt Refinery: Progress or deceptive triumph?

    Port Harcourt Refinery: Progress or deceptive triumph?

    The Port Harcourt Refinery, once a somnolent giant, has roared back to life. Long dormant and consigned to the annals of Nigeria’s unfulfilled industrial ambitions, its engines now hum with life, its pipes pulse with purpose, and its furnaces burn with a promise long awaited by a nation burdened by dependency on imported fuel.

    The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has declared this revival a monumental milestone, celebrating the refinery’s activation as the dawn of energy independence. Yet, amid the applause and optimism, a sobering question lingers: Will this awakening trickle into the lives of Nigerians battered by economic despair, or is it another empty triumph in the theatre of state-run projects?

    For decades, the refinery stood as a mute testament to Nigeria’s paradox—a nation rich in crude oil yet impoverished by its inability to refine it. The cost of this paradox has been staggering. Importing refined petroleum drained billions of dollars from the national coffers annually, depleting foreign reserves and exposing the populace to the volatility of global markets. The resurrection of the Port Harcourt Refinery was heralded as a masterstroke in addressing these woes, a monumental achievement akin to reviving a phoenix from its ashes. But as the trucks now rumble out with processed products, questions linger over its potential to transform the lives of ordinary Nigerians.

    The nation’s four state-owned refineries—symbols of squandered potential—have faltered, leaving Nigeria to import over 80% of its refined petroleum products at staggering costs exceeding $2 billion annually. This dependency has strained foreign reserves, exacerbated inflation, and amplified the agony of citizens grappling with exorbitant pump prices.

    Even with the activation of the Dangote Refinery, a private player with the capacity to process 650,000 barrels of crude daily, fuel costs have remained abominable. Across the federation, pump prices hover at N1,100–N1,300 per litre, with some states reporting higher prices due to transportation costs. This surge, exacerbated by inflationary pressures, has crippled the nation’s economy.

    Fuel costs have a cascading effect. Transportation costs have soared, spiralling into higher prices of food, basic provisions and essential commodities. Bread, rice, and garri—staples of the Nigerian diet—have become luxuries for many. Likewise, tomatoes, pepper, and hitherto affordable fruits. Commuters endure skyrocketing fares, market women watch their profit margins erode under-inflated transport costs, and as the prices spiral beyond reach, families struggle to afford a decent meal. For the average citizen, the oil beneath their feet has become a curse, not a blessing.

    Inflation, driven by these skyrocketing costs, has eroded purchasing power, leaving citizens clinging to the frayed edges of survival. The once-vibrant middle class, the engine of any thriving economy, is dwindling into insignificance, replaced by an ever-expanding chasm between the wealthy few and the impoverished majority.

    For a nation where over 63% of the population lives below the poverty line, such inflation is more than an economic issue—it is a humanitarian crisis. Households ration meals, children drop out of school to save costs, and the dream of a better life recedes further into the horizon. The activation of the Port Harcourt Refinery, while commendable, must not become another mirage in the desert of Nigeria’s industrial efforts. It must deliver tangible benefits to the people it purports to serve.

    The revival of the Port Harcourt Refinery has sparked hope that this tide might finally turn. Producing 1.4 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), 900,000 litres of kerosene, and 1.5 million litres of diesel daily, the refinery promises a glimmer of relief. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose administration oversaw the activation – since former President Muhammadu Buhari awarded the contract for its rehabilitation – hailed it as a cornerstone of his vision for energy security and economic prosperity.

    Read Also: FIRS boss, Oyedele, DG Budget Office brief Senate, seek passage of Tax Reform Bills

    Yet, even at 70% of its installed capacity, the refinery’s outputs are insufficient to meet the huge domestic demand. Moreover, its products must traverse the labyrinth of Nigeria’s distribution network—a system fraught with inefficiencies, middlemen profiteering, and logistical hurdles—before reaching the average citizen. The fear persists that the benefits of this revival may dissipate in the fog of bureaucracy, industry jargon, and operational pitfalls, leaving Nigerians to endure the same hardships cloaked in a veneer of progress.

    As the Port Harcourt Refinery chugs to full operations, it is imperative that the Warri and Kaduna refineries, as well as the second Port Harcourt Refinery, be expedited to full operational capacity. Together, these facilities have the potential to significantly reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imports, stabilize domestic fuel supply, and lower pump prices. Their activation would also create jobs, stimulate local economies, and position Nigeria as a net exporter of refined products, rather than an importer enslaved by the volatility of global markets.

    The symbiosis between private and public efforts in Nigeria’s refining landscape is both promising and fraught. While the Dangote Refinery exemplifies private-sector innovation and ambition, the Port Harcourt Refinery symbolizes public-sector resilience. Yet, this duality must be harmonized to serve the common good. Modular refineries, with their quicker return on investment and reduced vulnerability to sabotage, offer a path forward. But their economic viability hinges on operational efficiency, competitive pricing, and sustainable policies.

    Nigeria must embrace modular refinery technology as a complementary strategy. These smaller, cost-efficient facilities can be established in months, require less feedstock, and are less vulnerable to pipeline sabotage—a menace that has long plagued the oil industry. Modular refineries offer a pathway to regional energy self-sufficiency, enabling states to address local fuel needs independently while contributing to the national grid.

    Nigeria’s ability to strike the delicate balance between the cost of crude inputs and the price of refined outputs will determine the success of its refining renaissance. As global oil markets fluctuate, the government and private players must ensure that domestic gains are not eclipsed by external shocks.

    The journey towards refining self-sufficiency cannot succeed, however, without addressing systemic inefficiencies. Operational excellence must become the cornerstone of Nigeria’s refinery management. Maintenance, modernization, and innovation are essential to reducing costs and maximizing output. The government must also ensure that the pricing of refined products aligns with the realities of Nigerian households. Subsidy removal, while economically sound, must be balanced with social interventions for vulnerable populations.

    In addition, transparency and accountability are non-negotiable. The Port Harcourt Refinery’s activation, though celebrated, must not become a tool for political grandstanding. Citizens deserve regular updates on production levels, distribution, and pricing policies. The refinery must operate as a public asset serving national interests, not as a fiefdom for private gain or political patronage.

    As the engines roar back to life, they intone the clamour of a nation’s heartfelt dream—a dream of affordable fuel, a vibrant economy, and a brighter future. Yet, dreams without deliberate action suffer a stillbirth. The refinery’s activation must mark the beginning of a new era, not merely a symbolic gesture of progress.

    The Port Harcourt Refinery, reborn from the ashes of neglect, represents a glimmer of hope that must not be extinguished by complacency or mismanagement. For its activation to resonate beyond industrial corridors, it must relieve Nigerians of economic hardships.

    This is not merely a story of machines roaring to life but of lives transformed—where a father can answer as a provider, a mother can afford transportation to the market, a child can go to school with a full stomach, and a nation can stand tall, unbowed by the weight of its potential.

  • One year jail/N2m; Auditor General 2020-21; Fuel

    One year jail/N2m; Auditor General 2020-21; Fuel

    ‘One year jail term /N2m stolen’.   Please note this is the new EFCC corruption exchange rate. ‘Businessman jailed 21 years for N45.5m misappropriated in 2016.’ Corrupt politicians, civil servants, contactors and bankers should paste on their walls, a poster with this new rate for ‘jail time for theft’ with ‘immediate effect’. Using this rate, theft of N100m, N1b, N10b= 50, 500, 5,000 years in jail. ‘Steal big: Jail time big!’

    Newly released Auditor-General’s Office Report discovers N197bn contract fraud in MDAs for 2020-2021. Good report with bad news but the accused organisations have accounting teams, heads and other officials requiring to be brought to book for accounting, administrative, ‘Early Warning’ and corrupt lapses.  Nigeria has lost huge developmental progress in poorly monitored uncompleted contracts in rural electrification and other areas across 31 MDAs. The Auditor-General’s Office needs catch-up staff and a quick intervention increased budget as it still has 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 reports outstanding.  EFCC should step in now.   

     Who is afraid of local refining? 

    The murky waters of the petroleum industry are not clearing but appear to be getting even murkier and facing a crisis without end. Notice that since the death, no, murder, by international conspiracy,  of Nigerian refineries in the 70s, every time a saving lifeline appears, it raises our hopes only to be dashed sooner than later. We were told that local refining will cheaply solve our problem and give us 1] Cheap fuel because there is no international mileage to travel or transportation costs in dollars, and, 2] visible, usable and sellable by-products galore which usually, and corruptly,  have always completely disappeared in international financial accounting and corporate remittances from international oil refining. We must factor these by-products and in-out international transport costs added to the cost of fuel.

    Now we find we can refine fully in Nigerian in the brand-new Dangote Refinery, witness the multitude of obstacles strewn in the way before providing the required number of 340-600,000 barrels of oil, per day. Witness the huge quantity of fuel imported recently almost as an emergency to prevent the need to use any fuel from the Dangote Refinery. How is it possible that exporting barrels of oil, refining abroad, reimporting products could ever be cheaper than  local export-local refine and immediate local distribution? Oily mathematics?

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    But remember,  it is only in Nigeria that a nationwide electricity  company, which had repeatedly failed the country, boastfully providing a shaky 5Mw when we require 200Mw, criminally sat down and set out to scam consumers and said ‘let us charge higher per unit for more product use’  i.e. ‘more-for-more’. It got away with it and now we have the same problem with the petroleum industry.  So, the electricity band system is a ‘legalised’ scam, simple impossible in a normal ‘more costs less per unit’ world. Band A is criminal, extortionist and an immoral punishment for the consumers on Band A. Ditto for all bands.  Elsewhere in the world, the business model is ‘the more you use – the less the unit cost’.

    The good thing about the Dangote Refinery, even if ‘they’ , ‘the cabal’ or ‘whoever’ sabotage its function now is that with government backing and increased daily exports to 2.2 m barrels per day, our true, daily consumption of finished products will be revealed. The correct figure is the most closely guarded secret among the corruption causes of Nigeria’s past failure. We were told our daily petrol import needs dropped from 60m litres to 40m on so-called removal of subsidy.   It was already revealed that the so-called daily consumption was corrupted by thousands of diverted tankers crossing Nigeria’s borders; daily feeding other countries need with the greed of our own petrol managers. Any customs’ connivance? These stopped. The petrol and diesel consumption is even lower, 4-20m/day now as evidenced by the empty petrol stations, empty roads even at rush hour and the masses walking and fewer social visits.

    Without imported fuel and with reliance only on the local refineries, none working yet apart from Dangote Refinery, it will be easy to compute and publish our daily consumption of fuel, less with poor naira value.  And this is when the extent of our perennial ‘FUEL FRAUD’ will be revealed in all its pungent criminality. That figure is what the oil thieves want concealed as long as possible.

    As long as they can muddy the ‘locally produced fuel’ waters with ‘undisclosed fuel import volumes’, for that long will petrol corruption persist. Please note I am not a fan of Dangote or his well-known monopolistic business tactics. However, it is our job as a country to give him and others, there are other local refineries, the opportunity to use Nigerian oil fields to produce Nigerian petroleum products for the Nigerian market and local export to neighbouring countries.

    Remember, although initially successful for 5-10 years, our government-rundown refineries crumpled into a brazen corruption driven recurrent Turn Around Maintenance scam as well petrol smuggling networks for 40-odd years and a petrol tanker count scam where a ship  is counted as loaded but does not offload  but the country pays for the fake delivery.

    The cost of fuel to the citizen will depend on the exchange rate and the source of the oil for the refinery, imported or local, as well as the greed and honesty of those delivering and if the almighty regulators are corrupt or not.

  • Nigeria’s national malaise

    Nigeria’s national malaise

    Yesterday, the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) announced the commencement of operations at the revived old Port Harcourt Refinery. Videos shared on X showed tankers loading petrol. Diesel and Kerosene are also being produced.

    According to the company, the restored facility would for now be able to process 60,000 barrels of crude per day, servicing up to 200 trucks within a twenty four hour cycle. Side by side with the giant Dangote Refinery in Lagos which has the capacity to process 650,000 barrels within a similar time frame, this looks like a puny step for the much-maligned corporation.

    Put in proper context though, it’s actually a massive leap for Nigeria. This refinery built in 1965, along with a newer version constructed in 1989, hasn’t functioned for nearly 20 years. In that time, billions of naira was spent by different administrations for Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) that was supposed to keep the facility ticking. This was akin to making a bonfire of naira notes as it never worked for one day. It was the same story with other NNPCL refineries in Warri and Kaduna.

    Such was the lack of faith they could be salvaged that former President Olusegun Obasanjo, in the waning days of his administration, pronounced them unserviceable and proceeded to sell them off to the Bluestar Oil Services consortium led by Aliko Dangote and Femi Otedola.

    The Port Harcourt refinery was sold for $561 million, while the Kaduna facility was released for $160-million. These transactions weren’t universally applauded. They were perceived as ugly examples of cronyism given that the billionaire businessmen were especially close to the then president.

    Not surprisingly, pressure from labour unions and other interests who felt that our common patrimony had been pawned off too cheaply, forced the newly-installed President Umaru Yar’Adua to reverse the sale. But retaining ownership in government hands and investing further billions in TAM didn’t change the story.

    Today, however, a government that has been buffeted by a succession of bad news has something positive to celebrate – the Lazarus-like resurrection of a refinery many had written off. The news comes on the back of the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of 2024.

    This is welcome relief for an administration which for much of its 18 months of existence has been battling runaway food inflation, soaring petrol prices and managing the fallout from the floatation of the naira. Despite encouraging data suggesting an economy gradually on the mend, the average man hasn’t seen this translate into an easing of his daily struggles.

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    That, perhaps, explains why the excitement of those in government contrasts so sharply with the more restrained response from the wider populace. It’s as if many are still pinching themselves, waiting to be assured that this is for real. Some others are more interested in whether it results in lower prices.

    Again, this is understandable. In September when the Dangote Refinery began producing petrol, many erroneously assumed it would lead to lower prices just because processing was being done locally. But they soon got a reality check. This wasn’t a charitable organisation but a business that was going to sell its products at market prices reflecting global trends. So, no one can blame people for not getting their hopes too high this time.

    The next few days would be interesting as we get more clarity on NNPCL’s pricing. Would it be marginally or substantially lower than Dangote’s? A few days ago the latter shaved off N20 from its ex-depot price. Was this really in appreciation of the support of Nigerians as it claimed, or an action that anticipated the return of a formidable rival to the fray?

    Perhaps a truer picture of the dynamics should emerge in coming months as more government-owned refineries across the country bounce back to life. Rehabilitation is estimated to be between 60% and 80% in all of them. There would then be a more competitive environment in the local energy market that ultimately benefits consumers by way of lower prices and disappearance of queues.

    The country is also now in that pleasant place where its refineries are legally exporting crude to the West Africa market and beyond. The legitimate earning of foreign currency can only have a salutary effect on the economy.

    In his remarks welcoming the revival of the Port Harcourt refinery, President Bola Tinubu complimented his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, for starting the process. So how much credit does his own administration deserve for what has been achieved? I would say a lot. But that sentiment isn’t shared by many of his compatriots trapped in the crippling grip of cynicism and bitterness.

    In today’s Nigeria, there are many convinced that things can only get worse. They are instantly suspicious, if not out-rightly hostile to any mention of good news. They would never give credit to the man who claims to be reforming the economy, but who they primarily view as the cause of their hardship.

    I indulged myself in the comments section of stories about the revival of the refinery and found very interesting reactions. One reader who was convinced that the reports were lies suggested that NNPCL had only trucked in petrol from Dangote Refinery, and was dispensing same in Port Harcourt, to deceive a gullible public!

    Another declared it was just a photo-op to make Tinubu look good; by making it appear he had succeeded where a procession of past presidents – from Obasanjo to Buhari failed to deliver. Working facilities – especially those which have just been resurrected from the dead – don’t fit into the failed nation narrative which Obasanjo has been hawking around.

    Yet, another swore the revival of the refinery wouldn’t last. It was only a matter of time before it returned to the status quo. He didn’t offer any explanation why this would happen beyond certain assurance it would.

    In the chain of comments, you could only find a handful that was genuinely pleased at the positive news. The vast majority were determined to hang onto their doom and gloom. Truly, self-loathing is not only becoming a pastime, it’s almost now a national malaise. 

    It’s all too reminiscent of a time in the late 70s when former United States President Jimmy Carter faced seemingly intractable problems. Inflation had hit a giddying 13 percent. Fuel queues were forcing Americans to wait at petrol stations to fill their cars on alternating days.

    Amid the crisis, and with his popularity at rock bottom, Carter hid himself away at the Camp David presidential retreat where he spent close to two weeks hosting business, religious and political leaders – consulting them on how he should address the nation’s problems.

    At the end of period the president delivered what would come to be known as the “Malaise Speech,” in which he claimed America was suffering a “crisis in confidence” which struck “at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will.” He called upon the country to reflect upon its meaning and purpose. It was a speech that was well received at the time.

    In the course of the past 18 months, Tinubu has made many speeches which have challenged Nigerians not to wallow in self-pity but hope that things would pick up. Indeed, his whole platform of governance is dubbed ‘Renewed Hope.’

    So, at a time when lots of people have lost hope because of economic challenges, does the president need to go the Carter route by delivering another stirring sermon that attempts to convict the prophets of doom? Certainly not!

    We live in times when many don’t want to listen or reason. In one recent example, a senator form the Northeast who is opposed to the tax reform bills currently before the National Assembly, openly admitted he hadn’t read the details. Despite not being familiar with its contents, he still swore to vote against them all the same!

    It is very difficult to argue with evidence or results. Even those who chose to do so for a while will soon reconcile themselves with reality. That’s why Tinubu must prioritise the delivery of the other refineries. Much of the inflationary pressures in Nigeria are driven by energy and transportation costs whether you are speaking of businesses or families.

    He must quickly deliver on other low-hanging fruit regarding the economy. There would be a tipping point in the national mood when the constant dripping of good news drowns out the bad.

  • Obasanjo’s unending crusade for Igbo president

    Obasanjo’s unending crusade for Igbo president

    Olusegun Obasanjo, described as “a world statesman and a gift to humanity” who has demonstrated his “selflessness toward causes in Africa as well as global issues” is a prophet without honour in his own Yoruba country where he is regarded by his detractors as an Igbo man. Insisting he is not a Yoruba leader but a Nigerian leader only provided additional ammunition for his political enemies. He has no apologies favouring Shehu Shagari and Alex Ekwueme, in the 1979 at the expense of Obafemi Awolowo regarded a sage by the Yoruba but disparaged by Obasanjo as a failed politician.

    Not even MKO Abiola, his fellow Egba who won a pan-Nigeria mandate fared better. For him, Abiola was “not the messiah Nigerians were waiting for”. He therefore did not see anything wrong in joining Babangida in trading Abiola’s mandate for an Interim National Government. Finally, when in 1999 Obasanjo was made president by the owners of Nigeria to assuage the raw feeling of Yoruba that had fought and made the country ungovernable for five years, Obasanjo danced on Abiola’s grave for eight years without acknowledging his supreme sacrifice.

    The goodwill he did not enjoy among the Yoruba who refused voting for him in 1999 or his candidates since he left office, he savours among the Igbo who massively supported him against Olu Falae, the Yoruba candidate for the 1999 election. In appreciation, Obasanjo went round the world to recruit into his cabinet the best of Igbo including Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Obiageli Ezekwesili and Chukwuma Soludo. Even the worst of Igbo, including those who smuggled dollars to the US in his presidential jet, or kidnapped and locked up an elected governor like common criminal were not left out.

    It is therefore easy to understand why Igbo presidency has become an obsession for Obasanjo since leaving office. During the 2023 election, he carried Peter Obi on his back around the country. And since the election was lost and won, Obasanjo has continued to live in denial claiming Obi was rigged out by INEC and the Supreme Court.

    Those who know that Obasanjo has no generosity of heart to forgive anyone that crosses his way would understand while his appearance at Yale University to present a paper in honour of Chinua Achebe, the late Nigeria icon was for him  another opportunity to de-market Tinubu’s administration and present Obi as a viable alternative.

    His crusade for Igbo presidency also took the centre-stage during last week’s visit by the League of Northern Democrats to his library. He started by trying to mislead Nigerians by drawing a parallel between the collapse of the first republic to regionalism. The problem with Obasanjo however is that when he is not playing the ostrich, he tries to twist historical facts. There is no evidence to support his claim that “people say because the Igbo had carried out secession and so an Igbo man cannot be the President of Nigeria” or link the collapse of the first republic to regionalism.

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    In fact, Bode Thomas who introduced regionalism as against his party’s preferred federal arrangement, modelled after linguistic groups as done in India said his objective was to prevent one-eyed king from presiding over the affairs of his Yoruba nation. It was therefore ironic that the assault on regionalism by Igbo unitarists became the harbinger of the reign of blind kings over the country beginning with Ironsi, Murtala Mohammed, Obasanjo, Buhari, Babangida, Abacha and Buhari. And precisely because these soldiers were ill-trained in the management of society, they destroyed our political parties, our socialization process, our university and bureaucracy, our budding economy and centralised our institutions, while they unwittingly claimed they were sacrificing their present for our future”.

    Obasanjo’s misinterpretation of history during his encounter with League of Northern Democrats has only provided additional incentive to consolidate the position of those who believe Obasanjo is an Igbo man. It is on record that NCNC and Igbo preferred unitary system to regionalism or any other form of federal arrangement. They carried the battle to the London 1957 Independence Constitutional Conference where against Nigerian governors pre-conference agreement on creation of Calabar-Ogoja-Rivers (COR), Midwest, Middle Belt states, “the northern and eastern regions were unyielding and unconditionally opposed to the carving out of new states from their respective jurisdictions”. “The NCNC went a step further to “adopt a more devious approach by demanding that right there in the conference room, the country should be divided into seventeen states” saying the smaller the states, the better for the federal unity of Nigeria”.  This of course was rejected by Awolowo who said it “would make nonsense of federalism and indeed would amount to a backdoor reversion to a unitary system”. (The Autobiography of Obafemi Awolowo. (Pgs. 190-191).

    Awolowo who predicted what we today have has been vindicated. The unworkable and unwieldy 36 states structure foisted on the nation by Obasanjo and fellow blind men, never trained in the art managing human society, is not markedly different from the demand by the unitarists who many will agree are the greatest beneficiary of the ongoing anarchy where states have no record of those who live within their states or control over their borders.

    Igbo adage says ‘it is only your true friend that tells you your mouth is smelling’, If Obasanjo is sincere, he would have started crusade for Igbo presidency by first asking Igbo political elite to change their  brand of politics that uses Igbo poor and urban dwellers for political leverage.

     Unfortunately, Obasanjo who has never admitted making a mistake, seems to share the same mind-set with Igbo political elite who never take responsibilities for wrong decision but instead feed those that look up to them for direction with falsehood and propaganda. The result is that Igbo youths always end up believing they are victims hated by other tribes especially Hausa Fulani, Yoruba and Edo.

    Let us take a journey through memory to see how Igbo elite often blame others instead of taking responsibility for their error of judgment.

    The January 1966 coup was masterminded by Igbo NCNC political leaders who lost out following the collapse of NPC/NCNC coalition where Igbo controlled over 70% of political offices. Ironsi was, according to Richard Akinjide who was present at the meeting of surviving ministers, encouraged to take over power by the Igbo acting Senate President who refused to swear in the most senior surviving minister. Nwabueze drafted Decree 34 that turned the country into a unitary state. Unfortunately Ironsi was too handicapped to know the implications of his actions. Students of ABU who knew the implication of centralization of the bureaucracy started the rioting. Sadly, today Igbo youths blame not their leaders but outsiders for that avoidable tragic phase of our history.

    Driven more by passion than reason, Igbo leaders railroaded Ojukwu who later admitted Biafra had 16 riffles to declare independence for Biafra. The response to the wise counsel of Awolowo and Prof Aluko was the battle cry of “no power in Africa can defeat us” or that ‘the grass in Igbo land will rise and fight”. Not even Gowon’s creation of COR state for eastern minorities on the eve of the declaration called for reflection. Awolowo who however said starvation is a weapon of war after three years of war, the failure of leadership, alone carried the blame. This was despite the fact that many Igbo writers including Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie admitted soldiers and members of the elite class were hijacking relief materials meant for starving children.

    Between 1999 and 2015, Igbo southeast constituted a solid PDP block. In 2013, Peter Obi moved from APGA to PDP where he rose rapidly to become VP candidate in 2015. In 2023, fearing Atiku Abubakar the recurrent PDP presidential candidate was going to deny him the PDP ticket stabbed PDP in the back by joining Labour with Igbo PDP block. Then, Obasanjo and Igbo leaders who were eating with their 10 fingers while Tinubu remained in opposition for close to 20 years building alliance, wanted him to step down “to allow for an Igbo presidency in the interest of justice and equity”.

    Tinubu, for dismissing Obi as “container economist” and his promoters as opportunists who needed some lessons on consensus-building became a target of Obi’s  Obidient mobs while elder statesman and ex-Governor Ezeife  publicly swore that  Tinubu, after winning the election round and square would not be sworn in. Today as his government battle crisis of legitimacy arising from lack of recognition by aggrieved Igbo leaders, there is no evidence any of them have apologized for exhibiting herd mentality in and out of PDP. It was perhaps only Obasanjo and Igbo leaders who believed Obi could win the 2023 election.

    And finally, since a part of a whole cannot be holier than the whole, Obasanjo in spite of his theatrics cannot be part of the solution to lack of strategic planning by Igbo political elite that often behave like prostitutes with five husbands (apology to TOS Benson).

  • Gowon, Obasanjo, Buhari

    Gowon, Obasanjo, Buhari

    A former Nigerian leader just blundered onto the Chinua Achebe Leadership Forum, at Yale University, USA, squealing state capture and screaming insane governance!

    He wasn’t Gen. Yakubu Gowon, “the nation’s poster face of probity in public life”, by Catholic Bishop Matthew Kukah’s estimation.

    Neither was he former President Muhammadu Buhari (PMB), who the northern street had long canonized “Mai Gaskiya” — the Honest One — even while still alive.

    It’s rather the ever-noisome Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, ex-head of state and two-term elected president, who loves to row, thinking his eternal screeching would bury his rot!

    General Yakubu Gowon (90), General Olusegun Obasanjo, GOO, (87) and Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, GMB, (81) were all former military heads of state.

    GOO postures as the holy Pope of this best forgotten military era of sheer venality.  Yet, he stands out, like a sore and rotten thumb, for gaming the state for self-benefits. 

    His regime’s Operation Feed the Nation (OFN) morphed into his post-military power honeypot: Obasanjo Farms Nigeria (OFN) — with a fulsome harvest of choice lands, all over the country! 

    Ay, the same Land Use Decree, forged to drive his regime’s OFN, also came in handy to drive his personal OFN!

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    Gowon and Buhari sit on a moral crest, though military rule was rotten — rare drivers on Army rule’s straight and narrow way.  Still, they grate at no one.

    Yet,  Obasanjo galloped into the Chinua Achebe USA show, wearing his OFN medal, screaming “state capture!” A global self-trial was never more severe!  But the irony was totally lost on him!

    Clearly, Obasanjo has learnt nothing, in decorum or modesty or humility or probity — either from Gowon, his senior, or from Buhari, his junior.

    But he wants to teach everyone the ABC of honest leadership.  Did Fela, the immortal Abami Eda himself, just growl from the grave: Tisa, no teach me nonsense?

    Gowon’s bid to be elected president sank with General Ibrahim Babangida’s transition to nowhere, with the ever-flippant Obasanjo even mocking the doomed run of his old commander-in-chief.

    But the hypocrisy in GOO bobbed up with the panicky Army Arrangement that thrust him forward for President in 1999.  He didn’t ask his sponsors what he had asked Gowon: what did Gowon forget in Dodan Barracks to go pick up?  But dived into a self- serving cant: how many presidents would you make out of me?  Sheer humbug!

    In contrast, GMB’s unassailable probity, even among wild military-era thieves, paved his way to becoming PMB, like Obasanjo, for two terms.  In 2015, Nigerians craved an upright superman to help clean up the Obasanjo-led PDP-era mess.

    Again, to boot: while Obasanjo exited power in 2007, clutching another illicit medal — the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library and Resort — PMB bequeathed the Lagos-Ibadan medium-gauge rail, with its Wole Soyinka Abeokuta Station virtually facing off, in stern rebuke, Obasanjo’s private gold mine of OOPL! 

    Between quiet but honest public service and loud but rotten self-service, nothing could be starker!  After PMB and Obasanjo are long gone, the WS station and OOPL, would scream, for posterity, the real state captor — and a ruthless one at that!

    But beyond OOPL and WS Train Station, Obasanjo comes up short, against PMB, on many fronts.  Yet, PMB is as taciturn as Obasanjo is garrulous — the one over golden traits, the other over vice packaged as virtue.

    After two terms as president, Obasanjo craved an illicit third. At a similar juncture, PMB declared he couldn’t wait to get as far away from Abuja as possible!

    After the great third term crash — which he denies till this day — the Ebora Owu’s response was an election he bragged would be “do or die”; and indeed, it was do or die: very gory, in every material particular: in hewn limbs, bashed skulls, lost lives!

    Contrast that to PMB’s declared loyalty to his party, but telling people to freely vote their choice; and to the security agencies to guarantee the vote.

    As president, PMB delivered far much more in infrastructure (even with a parched pocket), and gave agriculture a rebirth, away from the reckless food imports of the Obasanjo years — an APC-era legacy President Tinubu has followed and reinforced. 

    Contrast that with Obasanjo paying US$ 12 billion, in crude windfall, to buy “debt forgiveness”, while critical road arteries — Lagos-Ibadan expressway, Second Niger Bridge, etc; not to mention modernized rail — wailed for attention. 

    As outgoing President, Obasanjo told the INEC chair, the best forgotten Prof. Maurice Iwu, to help deliver his “do or die” polls — a chilling nightmare for the opposition.

    PMB’s call, at a similar juncture, was on INEC chair, Prof. Mahmoud Yakubu, to push technology — the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BIVAS), which asserts genuine voters, by reading the permanent voter card (PVC) with its in-built computer chip; and the INEC Result-viewing (IReV) portal — to achieve better elections.

    That delivered the closest election in Nigerian political history.  But it also triggered wild but empty bad-mouthing from the loser camps, well represented by Peter Obi and co, at the Achebe Yale University show. 

    That explained Obasanjo’s open traducement of Prof. Yakubu; and his reckless call for the sack of the INEC chair.  If Yakubu is fired for delivering 2023, what then would have befallen Obasanjo’s Iwu, for his eternal disgrace of 2007? Banished for life?

    It’s clear: despite his constant huffing and puffing; and empty pontifications, Obasanjo has little sense of fairness; talk less of justice.  But God is great!  As he opens his mouth to judge others, he condemns himself even more!

    And, yes: post-power, Obasanjo pulls down everyone.  PMB supports his successors.

    So, if the Ebora Owu came so venomously after “Baba-go-slow” (PMB) and “Emilokan” (President Bola Tinubu), it’s again his patented opportunism to milk people’s pains to hawk counterfeit empathy. 

    There’s nothing to it — except for President Tinubu to know the pains of his policy reforms: removing petrol subsidy and floating the Naira, bite hard. He should move fast to tweak them.

    Many a charlatan would milk extant pains for instant political gains — and so would the present order too, were they in opposition! 

    But therein lies Obasanjo’s big fall — from a supposed statesman to a cheap, hustling politician.  But has he ever scaled such noble heights, with his eternal penchant to pull others down?

    It’s instructive, though: Obasanjo’s umpteenth pastime pushed the Tinubu order to benchmark themselves from 2015, rather than from 2023.  Had they been doing that, the difference between the PDP and APC eras would have been crystal clear, leaving little space for well-known Obasanjo cynical howls, and sundry opposition opportunism.

    Not a few marvel at Obasanjo’s many unforced, self-slaying outbursts.  It’s a purgatory: for early life rots, spinned as strengths, to which he is fated.  Pity!

    Ripples goes on leave

    It’s that season again to go rest and re-tool.  It’s been a fast-paced year and thanks for being part of that journey.  See you, by God’s grace, in 2025.