The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Oil, religion and climate

    Oil, religion and climate

    The  use of oil as a weapon of war by Russia against Europe  in retaliation for  economic sanctions against it for  invading Ukraine often reminds me of the Arab  oil embargo  against the US and Europe ,  for supporting Israel  especially after  the  1973 Yom Kippur war  in which  the Egyptian Army initially had the upper hand before its army  was surrounded in the Sinai desert   by the   Israeli  army  and  the Arabs lost   the war. Ever  since that time  Western Europe  and the  US  had  been  looking for alternative sources of energy outside oil  or fossil  oil  such  that   they would never endure the hardship and humiliation that the economic consequences of the oil embargo of the seventies inflicted direly on their economies . Global  warming was therefore an obvious excuse for saying that oil and its products and bye products were the  bad  reason for climate change and those who see the emergence of climate  mate  as a political issue on this score were branded as climate  denials .The  fact however  remains that geography  is changing as it has always done . Yet   most of the developed nations still  think and are acting as if man through elimination of fossil  fuel  or energy  can prevent climatic changes and calamities . I see  that as a gargantuan  fallacy for the simple reason that  man  has not been able yet ,  to fashion out an instrument and technology  that can contain and control  nature and that is the solid truth  , at least for now  , in this civilization we are  living   in .

    Today  I  want to use geopolitics to  illustrate my   point   of views  on the subject  of   the day . I  also  want to  show    the obvious connection  between climatology , the production of fossil  fuel and the subsequent impact of that  on man’s  economic race  for  survival and comfort which has led unwittingly to the emergence and usage of two words namely ‘ developed’  and ‘developing ‘ nations . Let  me initially   make some common or broad  geopolitical observations on the nature of economic development , its nature and locations as well  as the development and origins  of  religions   and  politics  along these  lines .

    Read Also; Leadership, culture and democracy

    First  , it   is  a fact  that  most  of the oil in this world is located in the Middle East  and Saudi Arabia , the largest oil producers and leader of OPEC is  located in the  Middle  East and is the leading Muslim  nation for Sunni Muslims . While another  oil rich  nation Iran leader of the world Shia Muslims is also one of the leading oil producers in the world .  On  the other hand during  colonization and slavery western nations like France , Britain and Holland  conquered colonial  lands like Nigeria  holding the bible in one hand and the gun in the other . At  the divestiture of the now buried  Queen Elizabeth 11 when  the globe in her custody  ,  one  of the crown   jewels   since coronation,   was retrieved at the  altar  it  was revealed that  she was given this as monarch to spread the word of Christ  around the world which  had been the goal of the defunct British Empire she once ruled over as the Commonwealth for 70  years . In Nigeria  it is a  hard  fact of life that the North is largely arid and mostly  in the Sahel and largely Muslim but Nigeria’s  oil is mostly  in the Niger Delta creeks mostly underdeveloped while oil money is being  used  to  develop  the North mostly  at the expense of the oil locations  where oil exploration  has led to massive  pollution and ecological  disasters . It  is also  a  grim fact of life that Fulani  herdsmen  are  Muslims looking for water to feed their  cattle not only in Nigeria but the whole of the North of ECOWAS  states and that  has led    to anxiety   of a looming   jihad against  coastal  capitals  that   are the commercial  heartthrob of W Africa like Lagos ,and Accra .

    It  is necessary  to acknowledge these plain facts and home truths to be able  to see the use of oil as weapon by the Arabs  led  by  Saudi Arabia  in the seventies  and now by Russia in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine .It  also  explains  why in pursuing the elimination of fossil fuel the west shot itself in the leg when  it did not have an available and ready source of energy other than  fossil  fuel .The UAE special  envoy for climate change Sultan Al Jaber has warned that policies aimed  at divesting from hydrocarbons and fossil fuel  without alternatives are not only self defeating . He  concluded that  ‘they will undermine  energy  security , erode economic stability  and leave  less income  available  to  invest in the energy transition ‘  Luckily  Nigeria  seem  to be heeding this warning as we  are  not  in any mad rush to embark on any  climate change gymnastics because we  will just strangle  our oil based mono  economy  The  EU nations and the US are  feeling the effect  of playing god with the climate especially with  the Russian oil embargo against the west  although they are keeping a straight  face about  it  .

    In  Nigeria  however the preparation for the 2023 presidential  election has been overheated  with the adoption of a Muslim Muslim  ticket  by the APC . Yet  Nigeria’s  problems as highlighted before  are starring us in the face ,and it   is  suchproblems   that we should  ask  presidential  candidates of any party seeking the presidency to address instead  of asking  Nigerians to show  hostility towards the Muslim Muslim ticket .This  is  because we are a nation  largely composed of both Christians  and Muslims . The two  religions  however    did  not happen in a vacuum . The colonial masters came to Christianise and   evangelise   us  as  the return of the Queens  orb  has revealed but that is impossible  under King Charles 111 because Britain  is now a multicultural  society with  Muslims , and  Hindus       . Even  in Nigeria where they  succeeded to evangelise heavily  they  succeeded mainly in the south and sparsely in the North . This was because they fell  in love with  the Northern  Emirs   love of horses  and their grand    durbar  horse   riding parades   and  forgot  to tell  them   about the bible .Instead  they taught  them  how to ignore geography and climate  in  Nigeria which  made the North  sparsely populated and  to  govern by claiming  a false  narrative in giving the North higher  census figures than the South .  Thus giving them  political    power in spite  of geography  and warning  them  that they would lose power  and authority if true  census ever took place . If  you  look at the huge number of horses at the Queen’s  funeral   in the UK  recently  you  will  understand  what  I am  talking  about with  regard to the emergence of the political structure and culture that Britain  bequeathed Nigeria  colonially ,  simply  because of horses! .  Laughable  perhaps ,   but    geographically ,  climatically  not to talk of history ,    quite  correct .

    Anyway  ,  the  truth is that in Nigeria both  Christian and Muslim   religious   leaders  are in the race to convert each  other  adherents  .Evangelisation and the jihad have similar  goals . In  the past   when  there was violence we had crusades  and jihads fought out in the holy  lands of the Middle East  which   now  has the largest  deposits of oil being exploited by western  technology owned by Christian  nations . The Sokoto Caliphate  had its way  too   in   the  N  and   NW and Northern Emirs are Fulanis while their subjects are Hausas .Either  way since independence Nigerians  have cohabited tremendously  successfully  in spite  of religion  . There was a time when the  Nigerian soccer team  the  Red   Devils  and  later   Green  Eagles was   largely  made up of  Ibos , who  are Christians  and nobody  raised an eyebrow . Now that we are about to have a president and his vise from one  religion ,  is the time to show that even  though our faith matters , it cannot and should not divide us . All  we need is a level playing ground for  keen  political  competition and may the better team  that  will  govern Nigeria  justly  and wisely ,  prevail . Amen .

  • Leadership, culture and democracy

    Leadership, culture and democracy

    The   British  Queen’s death ,  after  70   year’s   on the throne ,  the  smooth , seamless ,  ascension  ,  and  succession  to  the monarchy  by  her son as King Charles  III  ,  has left the world  dazed  by   the  pomp and pageantry   of her transition and left other nations wondering at what a commentator  called  ‘ the dignity of silence ‘  at her mourning  , especially  at  Edinburgh  , Scotland   . Technology brought the  funeral  to our various homes  globally  , and made us watchers at  least  ,  if not   outright mourners like the  miles’ long queue of morose   somber people  ,  who thronged to watch her funeral  as she laid  in state preparatory  to her burial on September 19 . To  me  however ,  it  is an opportunity  look at the concept  of democracy which  she presided  over for 70  years  in the   UK and draw a comparison with democracies without monarchies    like France which  killed its aristocracy and elites in the French Revolution  of 1789 , Russia which  killed its Czar  or king in the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and Nigeria which the British  made a nation  by   force  ,   selfish and   blind   administrative     convenience  in the   amalgamation  of   the North and South   of  Nigeria  in  1914 . Of  course this is  an excursion into  history and the road   map   or  evolution  of the political  culture at work in the nations mentioned and hope fully  we  should  learn  why  the British  loved their  nations  so much  and gave   rise   to   the well  known political   cliché that says  ‘  with the Queen  in Buckingham Palace  every Briton  sleeps  well  on his  bed ‘‘ Which  should be the same even now that the UK has  a king . After  all  , the old  and long awaited saying that  ‘ the Queen is dead , long live the King ‘  has been  consummated so majestically  before  our eyes in the making of King Charles 111  ,   the  old ,  , , but overly  prepared ,  very long king – in- the making ,  and  now   the oldest king  in history    to ascend   to  the British   throne .

    Before dealing  with today’s   let topic     however , me briefly congratulate   my   club  , the Yoruba Tennis Club which turned 96 on September 15  2023 ,  as it was founded on that day in 1926 . The  anniversary called ‘ 95 plus I ‘ was celebrated in grand style ,  led by the Club’s Chairman Chief Jide Damazio , the Onigege Wura of Lagos and  former Secretary of  Lagos titled  Chiefs . A  lecture  on social  clubs and social  cohesion  was given  on September 15 by the Vice  Presidential  candidate of the APC  Senator Kashim Shetima  Mustapha  , who  I christened KSM during the question and answer  session . It   was a well  delivered lecture and of course a master politician  and genius at  his trade   was at work  in marketing the Muslim Muslim ticket . In addition,  he tackled  the   two   questions   asked  him   brilliantly  and effectively . A retired judge and YTC member  Milord  Suyi Olateru Olagbegi  asked why the APC had  not delivered in  two  terms  , the restructuring it promised in its campaign and manifesto .  Senator   KSM promised  to deliver on that if elected in 2023  with the Jagaban  as president  .Incidentally  His Lordship’s   father  was one of Nigeria’s   traditional   rulers   who  received  the  now deceased Queen Elizabeth’s 11  when   she visited Nigeria in 1956 .  I  asked why Nigerians  are being subjected to the exploitation  of  political colonialism by Nigerian politicians  now that we  have  been  independent   since  1960 .  He    replied  brilliantly   that the issue is one of leadership and it is up to Nigerians to  wisely     elect    people like  him and  the  Jagaban  to  the presidency in  the  2023  presidential election   to  get  the right  leadership  to stop exploitation  of Nigerians by politicians .I agree  totally with  that and wish  the APC   Muslim Muslim    ticket  a grand success on that score in the   coming  2023  presidential elections .

    Read Also: Leadership, opportunities and performance

    Now ,  let us go back to the topic  of the day .Most  Nigerians of my age are products of British  colonialism and hold the British Royal family in high esteem which is what  you  can call colonial  mentality . It does  not however make us inferior to the Britons and indeed I would say that  many Nigerians  in all walks  of life are better educated than the average Briton . Our  problem  in making our environment safe and beneficial  like the British is our lack of  honest leadership . Again I hold the  British  responsible in terms of the extravagant and crude amalgamation of 1914 . I would  however not wish that the Queen  should ‘ die in excruciating pain’ like a  female  Nigerian  professor based in the US did  on the Internet  because Britain supported Biafra in the Nigerian  civil war . In addition I hold  the military  and its intervention in the Nigerian politics and democracy  responsible  for   turning Nigeria    from  the well  known path  of Parliamentary  democracy  to the American presidential  system  which is a winner  takes all that concentrates  too much  power in the executive  ,   in its system  of checks and balances .Britain  still  practices its  parliamentary  democracy even  with its monarchical constitution and  the PM governs while the monarchy rules . Parliament however  is supreme and the PM  governs as Liz Truss promised to do ,  as a  conservative . The British  cabinet system makes the PM  only primus  inter pares   in the cabinet .That   explains why  Boris Johnson  can retreat to the back  benches in Parliament  and wait to be called  up to power later like  his hero  Winston Churchill once   did  , only  to be called up  again to  be the UK’s most successful  war PM in  the Second World War from 1939  to 1945 . To me Parliamentary  democracy offers better chances for equity , accountability ,  leadership  integrity  and transparency  than  the presidential system  which is expensive , exploitative and repressive  as a  democracy  and is the bane of our democracy as it is today . It  has made our democracy  not only a journey  too far but a futile  and  unending  perennial ‘work  in progress’ .

    With  regard  to France and its Revolution of 1789  , it is obvious  that when Republican  France is compared with the British monarchy ,    France  looks  like an orphan . The French  Revolution killed kings and princes of France  but Napoleon  Bonaparte   created his own dynastic  monarchy almost  immediately and  France  has been  longing  for  royal  splendor since . That explains why the tenure of its presidency was once seven years a term till  it was reduced to  two ,  five – year  terms recently . The  French  Palaces of the sun kings of France are still there without their landlords and are  now occupied by elected democrats but the French  remember them with nostalgia.  Especially  with the long reign  of the now dead British  Queen  and her succession by her son as  king  . Certainly  , history  has taught  the French ,  with the evolution of their  brand  of democracy  a harsh    lesson ,   that you can not eat  your cake  historically  ,  and still  have it .

    On  Russia ,  it is a pity that  the nation which  used to be the USSR after the Bolshevik   revolution of 1917 has invaded Ukraine which  the invader Putin insists is an integral part of Russia . If  the  USSR had  not disintegrated under  Gorbachev in 1991 into its 15  component states ,   one could have called the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine  an implosion . But  now  it is a Russian explosion that has unwittingly united western Europe against a common enemy that Russia under Putin  has become to the EU . This   is   with Russia using oil  as a war weapon against an EU that seeks  to  castrate Russia with economic sanctions . More  dangerously  for the west led  by the US , the Americans are sponsoring Ukraine with billions  of funds while claiming not to be at war with Russia . It is a western illusion   that the Russian leader  will never accommodate or condone . Ukraine  has  a brave leader in the mould of Boris Johnson’s war  hero Winston Churchill . But  Putin  is not Hitler and the theater of war is in the heart of Europe not in    far   places   like  Alamein or Egypt . The  drums  of the third  world war  are waiting  to be sounded sooner than later on the shores  of the  world’s   most economically   advanced continent  . The  omens are dire  , indeed .

  • Politics, calculations and miscalculations

    Politics, calculations and miscalculations

    Politics  may  not be mathematics, but it involves a  lot of calculations and planning which ,  when  they do not go right,  are  denounced    as sheer miscalculations  , made  manifest  in most cases with the benefit of hindsight. Which simply means that two plus two  may not  be four arithmetically  and  therefore  politically.

    Indeed in synergy  two plus two  equals five and is a relative of the theory that the whole may  be bigger than the sum  of its parts . We  look at political  parties in some  political cultures today in the light of the real and potential  leadership they have thrown up in different times and  in  different political  systems in recent times.   This   is  with  a view  of   finding  out   if things are working out as planned or  the end is simply being used to justify the means . It  promises  to be an exciting   exercise  and I ask   you  to come along gingerly with me on the assignment  .

    We  do not  need to look far  for  our  targets . Nigeria’s  two  political  parties are at each  other’s  throat  to get  power in the coming 2023  presidential  elections . Internally  , in each party   however there are great threats of implosion and, externally  , of fragmentation and factionalisation , following their two  presidential primaries and their emergent  presidential  candidates  for each party . We  shall    look at the prospects of this  potential  fratricide on the chances of each party  to win the 2023 presidential  elections .

    We    will  also  examine the emergence of Liz Truss as Britain’s  new PM , a development  I predicted  earlier in this column  , and  her   appointment  of non white  Britons to  key  positions in her cabinet in a clearly multicultural  Britain moving  on   its  own momentum   ,  with   the ,  shaky  ,  heady  pace of   a bumpy Brexit  .

    We  compare  this with the US where the  president called  the opposition ’  Republicans  anti democrats’  and ‘fascist’  and warned the Republican  party against  the   dominance   of  Donald Trump ,   the man  he defeated in the 2020  presidential  elections .  This is a president  who  was elected  on a promise to unite Americans after the    voiatile  , turbulent  one-  term  presidency  of Donald  Trump    who  Biden  branded as divisive  even  though Trump’s  slogan  was  the  acronym  MAGA  ,  which  means Make  America Great Again .Biden’s   abrupt  metamorphosis from preaching unity  to ‘ out trumping  ‘  Trump  in political  bombast    ,    verbal   violence and gymnastics  will be examined carefully  today .

    Let  us   first   look at the Nigerian political  terrain  dominated by the ruling APC and the opposition PDP . The   APC  carries the self chosen  albatross of the Muslim Muslim  ticket which it has been busy trying to explain away especially  in the notion that  it will not matter because Nigeria is after all a secular state . The PDP  on   the other  hand  shot  itself in the leg by choosing old war horse Atiku  over Wike the powerful governor of Rivers state  who  I had predicted as a formidable opponent for the Jagaban before  the presidential  primaries  of either party .  To  compound the PDP woes it jettisoned Wike as Atiku’s  running mate  and chose instead  , the lackluster governor of Delta state .  Wike  for now is like Hercules at arms in the PDP and his indignation at being sidelined is more of a threat to  the existence of the PDP  ,  not to  talk of its  huge   potential to scuttle  the presidential ambition  of Atiku  .  Wike’s  anger at  being sidelined makes him a bull  in the Chinaware shop who  must  be handled  with  care to avert the party’s  destruction . How that is   managed is the political  calculation that  the party must work  out or give up any chance of victory  in the 2023 presidential elections .

    The  APC  has a more manageable problem and must  calculate  better to promote and sell its Muslim Muslim  ticket . One thing is clear Christians  cannot unite against the ticket because that would be unchristian if  not anti Christ . This is where the virtue  of western education comes in because of  its  flexibility and deep  knowledge of tolerance that makes for political  accommodation . This    is what  the Jagaban  has in abundance and  has built across  the nation not  only as governor in Lagos state  but across  the nation in about three presidential  elections leading to the Emi Lokan explosion in indignation  when  he was about to be given the Wike  treatment  in the PDP ,  on the eve of the last presidential  primaries of  the APC . To  me the Muslim Muslim  ticket  will   sell  and    jell  but  its marketing to the electorate  must  be relentless  and sustainable   till  victory  is assured  in the 2023  presidential   election . A luta continua till   then .

    We  now  go to Liz Truss emergence as Britain’s  new  PM . I predicted this on the eve of the Tories election when she emerged as one of the two eventual candidates with  the former Chancellor  of the Exchequer .  My  reason  was that  she did not resign from the    beleaguered   Boris  Johnson  cabinet and her opponent was the first major party stalwart  to  resign setting forth the domino  theory that collapsed  the leadership of Boris Johnson . That  gave her the support of the former PM who  has asked the party  to rally round her leadership . Politicians don’t  like being stabbed in the back and Boris Johnson is  not an exception and that is the lesson for  the leader that lost to Liz Truss . In  addition Truss has confirmed that racism  is no hindrance in political  participation in Britain with the appointment of four non whites as key cabinet ministers  with two   having    parents from Ghana and Nigeria as Chancellor  of the Exchequer and Minister of International Trade  respectively .

    It  is necessary to compare  this with events in the US where Black Lives Matter ,  the woke and cancel  culture is making  the history of racism and its  impact,   the Democrats’  political  weapon to use to fight white  supremacy . And  the   teaching   of the Critical Race  theory to teach students that whites are bad because they  are responsible for  racism as   they  owned slaves before in the history of America . This  has made whites suspicious  and to welcome the   outlandish    conspiracy theory  that the present government through its open  border policy with Mexico is about to replace whites with  coloured    people . These  mutual  suspicion  of the two  parties coupled with  the recent judicial dismissal  of abortion and the  entrenchment  of  gender equality  and LGBTQ rights are at the heart  of US politics and are  the main issues on display  at the crucial  mid term elections in November this year  and will become the cultural wars to be fought out on the political   arena in the US 2024  presidential    campaigns   and  elections .  The  signs  of political  miscalculation and mistrust  with  the two  parties makes  understanding  of issues difficult  on either  side and that has  now been made worse  by the language of the US president which reminds  one of the  denigration of Republicans as a basket  of deplorables  by Hillary   Clinton  in the 2016 US presidential  election she   eventually  lost to Donald Trump.

    Obviously then,   public  discourse  should   be rational  and the language responsible and courteous . Dissent  too   should  be agreed as a right .After  all  , in any worthwhile  democracy the majority  can  have its way ,  but the minority  must  be allowed  to have its say  .  That  attitude  is very much  at play  even  in the discussion of the Muslim Muslim ticket in Nigeria as well  as lurking  danger that the brooding of Wike poses to the compunction and  existence  of the PDP in is calculation for  2023 . Such  tolerance  and respect  for cultural  diversity   is manifest in Liz Truss new leadership in the UK . Unfortunately  it is fast  dis appearing in the US  which  once claimed it is God’s own country and the mother of democracy . Surely one can say of the US in terms  of the language of intolerance  right   now   pervading political debate like a malodorous  odor   , that it is not all that  glitters that is gold . Which  is quite  pathetic   for the self-  appointed champion  of global  democracy  .

  • Leaders, legacies and foresight

    Leaders, legacies and foresight

    The  death of former Soviet leader leader Mikhail Gorbachev  in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine ,  a former Soviet satellite state is a very important news laden with history as well  the need  for   scrutiny  on  the quality of leadership at crucial  moments in the history  of the world .Leaders globally  make decisions that make or mar their reputation and history is always there to judge them and to applaud or  condemn their sense of responsibility and accountability  in the context of the decisions they make or refuse to make .In Nigeria the President while receiving some governors said reportedly that Nigerians will  soon appreciate  him because he will  not interfere or influence any   more  elections till he leaves office .Similarly the MD of NNPC justified  the decision  to award  oil  pipeline  security contracts to private contractors as the right decision because there  was  an open  bid and that  is enough to give oil  pipe lines contracts to warlords who later under arms turn round to declare secession and agitate for self  government against  the government that gave them pipeline  protection contracts .Anyway  the governor of Ondo  state is not impressed  that government is giving huge contracts to private contractors   on  security but is not   prepared to allow the state governors to have state police or the security  wherewithal  to protect their    own citizens who  are being killed in large numbers by  terrorists  , bandits , kidnappers  and armed Fulani  herdsmen .

    I  have  highlighted all   these  decisions  to show that leaders at times are  the architects of their own misfortune in the reckoning  of history especially when they  make decisions that are plainly  stupid and unreasonable but insist on getting the job done no matter whose horse is gored . It is my  intention to  highlight such draconian and controversial decisions  today  both  in the present and the past starting  with the death of Gorbachev  the innovator of Glasnost and perestoika   who  nevertheless  presided over the liquidation of the former Soviet Union and its dissolution into its 15  constituent  states .

    I believe I  do not exaggerate if  I say  that present Russian leader Vladmir Putin  will  certainly regard  the demise of Gorbachev as  good  riddance to bad rubbish  , which really  is in bad  taste but  is borne out   by  the fact  that ,  all his political  life ,  since becoming Russia’s leader  , Putin  has been trying to  undo  what  Gorbachev  achieved ,  which  is the collapse of the Soviet Union .Putin   since   coming to  power  has squared  up to the west in rejecting a unipolar world dominated by the US and with the weakness of the Obama Administration then over Syria and the use of   chemical  weapons against Syrians by their  government , the invasion of   Crimea in  Ukraine in 2014 and  now the invasion of Ukraine ,   Putin is telling the world that Russia will  have its way and does  not need the patronage or support of the west . Putin  has  a fitting ally in   the Chinese  and they  are teaming up  to  make life difficult  for the west  whose priority  any way is to enforce gay  rights and destroy family  life both of which goals are an abomination to both China and Russia . I  doubt  if Gorbachev  will get a state funeral as he is adored far  more in the west than at home  in Russia .Even  that adulation is a source of fury   and    intense  indignation for Putin as he concentrates on using  oil to deal with the EU nations who stupidly under the leadership of former German Chancellor Angela believed that oil pipelines built in cooperation with Russia will not be used as weapons of war .Which is what has happened now  since the west imposed   economic sanctions on Russia for invading   Ukraine .

    Let  us now compare some of the hard headed  decisions that serve no public good at large but which some leaders persist in  executing  just  because they are in power . I do  not agree with the NNPC MD  that it was the right decision to give  oil    pipeline  protection  contracts to  private  companies who  later  use the money to acquire ammunition and rise against the state . It is a suicidal  way for any  government to willingly breed insurgency and rebellion against  itself .There is no sane explanation for that and it cannot be the right decision .Similarly  the Federal  government should do more to help  the states protect their people by allowing them to have state police . It is the wise thing to do and the government should not make non interference in elections its main legacy  when  the issue of insecurity  and the challenge  of forces of insecurity are mammoth and are making security of life and property  the main concerns of millions of Nigerians as they go towards the 2023 presidential and general elections .

    I  see this  sort of decisions with dubious motive and intent in some  issues  especially  with the drive for climate change and the destruction of the fossil  fuel  industry  in the EU nations and the US .An  observer  has  noted that collapsing the oil industry  because of climate change will create  poverty in the developed world . This is because they have no oil,  and prices will  rise and people  are preparing to use coal or wood which was something they did ages ago .What  is the use of preparing the world for the future when one cannot exist comfortably  in the present ? Yet  the Biden Administration campaigned on making climate change its priority  and sees rising fuel  prices and the attendant inflation as hardships to be endured on the way to a green energy world  compatible with its campaign for an energy  free world .I cannot  but marvel at  such misguided and economically ruinous policy and legacy .

    Similarly  the decision of the FBI   in   the US  to invade the residence of former President Donald Trump  lacked foresight and circumspection and the FBI  should  know better . Given that Trump  was harassed    in    office  with the Russian Collusion hoax  which the FBI started and could  not prove even with the Muller investigation  , the FBI should have evolved other ways of letting the former president know that he is violating the rules on how presidents keep classified documents and put him on notice for further action if he did not play  ball .Now  the Facebook  boss has revealed that it was the same FBI  that dropped the hint to the tech giant that Hunter Biden’s lost and found laptop  could be another Russian misinformation. That  was on the eve of the 2020 US presidential election which Trump believed he would have won if the Hunter Biden laptop  content  was investigated  . The FBI  aborted  the investigation and Biden  won. . It  is quite easy for Trump’s  supporters to conclude that the FBI  is up to its old tricks of finding nothing good in Trump both as  incumbent and   past  president  when  on the eve of his announcing his palns to contest again in2024  the FBI  took the unpredecented decision  to raid the house  of a former president .The FBI should  know it stands on wobbly feet in its investigation since it has established malice and hatred for Trump in his one term in office on the Russian collusion and has since lost credibility on any investigation on the same Trump now bracing up to contest for the [presidency again in 2024 . The FBI  should  learn fast that those  who  live in glass  houses should not only  not throw stones  but must  also acknowledge that   in law  , those who come to equity must come with clean hands. In  raiding Trump’s  house mindlessly the FBI  threw caution  to the winds and left its ratings on  credibility in tatters and its legacy and foresight  at an abysmal , dubious low .  Which  is pathetic  for an  investigative  bureau,  indeed .

  • Culture, conflicts and dialogue

    Culture, conflicts and dialogue

    I start   on the premise   today  that one man’s food  is another man’s   poison   and   with  the addendum that culture   is relative  and I do not believe  in ethnocentricity  . I   illustrate   this   stance   first with  a meeting  between   the US  and  Nigeria’s Attorney  General of the Federation  on further recovery   of the Abacha   loot ,    where the US representative  gave a  lecture to Nigeria and Nigerians  on the evil consequences of corruption on society at large .  It  was  a lecture that fell   obviously   on deaf ears and   was   nonchalantly oblivious of the fact that Nigerians are used to looting and are   focused   for   now on the next presidential election in 2023  and corruption  is not an issue on the table. Not only because it is an obvious distraction  ,but   simply  because it is our way of life or political  culture .

    Compare  that with Malaysia where a former PM  was jailed recently for embezzlement  and had pleaded in his defence  he  was misled into thinking that the money he was accused of misusing ,  was a gift  to him from the Saudi Arabia  government  and Malaysia is a predominantly Muslim nation .Whereas in Finland ,  the PM ,   a lady  had  been asked to resign because of the way she was filmed dancing and wining with her friends at a party in her home and she was  ,  in  public  alarm  ,   asked to take a drug  test on account of her unusual and energetic hilarity ,  but  she passed  the test .Load  these  events with a finished but contested election in Kenya ,  and the coming together of three former and hostile presidents in the chocolate nation , Ivory Coast   and you will  see ,  as I  will  soon show  that it is not  always the case that what is good for the goose is good for the gander   where  culture ,  especially  the political  type is at stake .

    Starting with  the  Abacha  loot , the story was that the US has returned 23m dollars stolen by the former Nigerian military ruler and Transparency  International has estimated that Abacha looted up to5bn dollars of Nigeria’s  public  money  but was never charged .That alone should  have informed the US ambassador Mary  Beth  Leonard that her announcement  in the latest deal  that  the US had agreed to repatriate more than 337.4 m US dollars is not news to Nigeria because Nigerians and its leaders have learnt  to live with the Abacha  loot and its shady and subsequent  mismanagement  and mis application . Indeed at election time this is extravagant and boring news for the simple fact that eligibility to rule Nigeria is not possible at any level without turning a blind eye  and nose  to our pervasive , malodorous  and strong stench  of corruption at every  level of political  competition and participation . That  really is our road map to power and that is just sheer   political  reality and pragmatism .

    In  the Malayan PM Najib Razak’ s fall from grace  to grass on account of corruption  , the Supreme Court upheld an Appeal Court sentence of 12 years imprisonment  linked to  a multi billion dollar looting  at  the 1MDB state fund . Now  this was a PM who ran a very controversial but bubbling administration and was a from a great political dynasty as his forebears had been PM before in Malaysia but he fumbled and the judiciary  dealt with him to show that justice in the application of   the law  is blind . The excuse that the looted money was from Saudi  Arabia was an appeal to religious  sentiment in a nation that is Islamic but the judiciary  saw that rightly as the last  excuse of a guilty  ,sinking man who  will grab  at a straw  to save his hide  . It  did not work  and the Malaysians  have shown vividly  that in their political structure and culture ,  no man or leader  , no matter how highly placed is above the law , as the jailed leader  was taken away  to a  prison  forty  miles from the capital  immediately   after the verdict of guilty .

    Finland  presents a show case of a pleasure society where the western values of adoration of the LGBTQ culture is in ascendancy . Finland’s PM Sanna Marin is 35  years old and is the youngest PM in  the world .In her party at her official residence pictures of ladies kissing each other and baring their naked breasts surfaced and there was public outcry . She felt the pictures should not have been made   public  and initially said she was not drunk or on narcotics  at  the party ,  which a drug test confirmed  . She however apologized later even though her party found nothing wrong with her  behavior . Certainly  Finland  is in a world of its own and the ladies run the show . Yet that is their business or funeral , depending on how you as an African view the LGBTQ culture which is anti family and anti marriage and distinctly  anti African culture .

    In  Kenya’s recent  presidential elections the declared  loser Ralia Odinga aged 77 lost  to the winner William Ruto aged 55 . Odinga has contested for the presidency and lost five times . This time however he  is supported by the outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta who did not support his VP . The unique thing  about Odinga’s  electoral  appeal is its quality and bold ness as well  as the fact that four out of the seven members of the Kenyan electoral  commission did  not sign  or approve the final election results leaving ball on the integrity of the election in the court of the Kenyan Supreme  Court  .In  addition Odinga called the Chairman of the Electoral  body  ‘a rogue’ which is very  harsh  language indeed .  It  seems Kenya is about to teach the rest of Africa a lesson on the veracity of election petition unlike the bloody post election riots of  the  2007 presidential elections that claimed over 1200  lives . This  is a step in the direction of sustainable electoral  contests and integrity and  Odinga  should  be commended for his insistence and tenacity in getting the results  right for the sake of not only Kenyan democracy  but that of African  nations at large  .Election  results should not be made fait accompli once there are glaring evidence of blatant electoral irregularities  and  anomalies such as Raula Odinga has portrayed so  vividly in this last Kenya Presidential  elections .

    In  the Ivory Coast the détente between the last three presidents of that nation is a lesson in political accommodation  for the rest of Africa. This was  a nation where former President Laurent  Gbagbo was  arrested in his presidential palace after refusing to accept  the victory of incumbent President Allasane Ouattara at the polls. Gbagbo  and his wife were arrested half naked and he was taken for trial at the Hague at the International  court of Justice but was freed by a judge there for lack of evidence . Now  he has returned and has been pardoned by incumbent president Ouattatra  who  recently  got elected for an unconstitutional  third term  .Even though Ouattara has promised not to contest again provided the two former presidents stay out of politics ,the accommodation shown  by the leaders in Ivory Coast is one to be emulated by other African nations . The lesson is clear . Politics should not be a do or die affair and that even after  bloody  civil war  ,  dialogue and tolerance  are still  possible against all odds . It  is a beacon for peace and stability  for all of Africa and beyond .

  • Politics, leadership and charisma

    Politics, leadership and charisma

    Charisma is a magical quality that  makes those who follow some leaders to do  so  almost blindly . Such  followers are immune to the faults  of  such leaders  and  may even  rationalize such  faults as rare assets that others  leaders can never have . It is of such leaders that I turn  my attention today not only from history but contemporary  events that happened in the last one week  . The  aim is to show  that charisma is not merely   political   or leadership showmanship and such  leaders invariably  leave indelible marks  in the sands of time that even those who don’t worship them like their numerous supporters sometimes acknowledge ,  no matter  how grudgingly  they do so .

    Starting with history one can easily pick Zik , Awo  and the Sardauna  as three eminent Nigerians that  have given  charismatic leadership especially during our first republic and our very  beautiful  but now nostalgic political experience with regional  politics . I  have deliberately  not called the three leaders by their full names because the way  I have called them is what  drives their   fanatical   supporters and the hearing  of that  alone is enough to send their supporters into a frenzy  of joy and celebration  and their  opponents into sheer  panic at the   mention     of their  names .  Zik  led the fight against colonialism  after  taking the mantle from his mentor Herbert Macaulay  in  Lagos  and used his newspapers  especially The Pilot   to torment  the colonial  masters on the rights of colonial  citizens till  independence was  won and he became our first Nigerian president . Awo’s legacy  was free education in the west which  was the challenge that the Sardauna adopted in the North  because he was a school  teacher , a role his successors abandoned .This  has left  the North behind the rest  of Nigeria in terms of educational development even though the North  has  been in power either during military or civilian rule  more  than the  rest  of Nigeria . I  have  deliberately  left  out our military  leaders because military  intervention in politics is a  democratic aberration and a violation of the rule of law because in a  true   democracy power does not flow from the barrel of a gun  but from the ballot box .

    We  leave Nigeria and acknowledge other great African charismatic leaders like Jomo  Kenyatta of Kenya and Kwame Nkrumah   of Ghana   who  were elected into power while in prison under  colonial rule and went on to  win independence for their  nations .  Peron of Argentina and later his wife Evita still   make Argentines swoon nostalgically  even though  their leadership  was tainted with corruption and abuse  of office later . Winston Churchill was a war PM of Britain whose war rhetorics was an incentive to his nation to face the might and wrath of Nazi  Germany under Hitler and  succeed  to win victory with the Allies  in the   Second  World  War  . It is  instructive  that when the woke culture  in Britain   recently  wanted to redress the havocs of racism  and tried to rewrite  history by calling Winston Churchill a’ racist’ for calling   Mahatma Ghandi , the charismatic leader of India a ‘ half naked barbarian ‘, present UK PM , Boris Johnson,  who  literally  worships Churchill as a war hero ,  called the bluff  of the cancel  culture and  the woke  culture suffered an unexpected set  back  till now in Britain unlike its huge progress in the US and EU .

    In  contemporary  politics  both at home and abroad in recent  times I want  to   highlight  some   leaders   who  have demonstrated the gift of charisma which  has made them  to flourish in terms of leadership and relevance  even at times against  the tide of public opinion and in spite of the luggage  of political   controversy  hanging around their neck .  I  pick  the Jagaban of Nigeria, the ruling APC presidential  candidate running for the Nigerian presidency    on the Muslim Muslim ticket  that has generated   so   much  controversy . I  pick  former US president Donald Trump  who  is defending himself   against   keeping classified   documents   in his Mar Alago  residence  and in a concession to a redressed  political  aberration  I  add OBJ   as  an elected  leader  as the third party in this triumvirate  of charismatic  leaders of nowadays .

    I  recall  a story  when  on the occasion of a birthday of the political sage , Awo  , the  then  military   ruler,   IBB congratulated him and said that whether you  like him or not Awo  has been ‘the issue in Nigerian politics  ‘ most  of the time . Reportedly  Awo  folded the letter in apparent  satisfaction , told his wife it was time  to  sleep  on that  note   and the old political warrior  died shortly after . Such  a description from a   military  ruler  gave  immense satisfaction to Awo .  I  say  in this column  today  that whether you  like him or  not the Jagaban  is the main issue in Nigerian politics and democracy  today  and it has been a long and tortuous  journey  to arrive at this my assertion . It  is  not an’ Emi  Lokan ‘  episode  alone .I t is a pragmatic observation based on a mixture  of performance in office , a large heart and unqualified  magnanimity acknowledged now  timeously and  nationally    and cascading on a charisma that  makes his opponents fear  to stand on the path of a moving train or charging bull with predictable  and politically   suicidal   consequences .

    Look around you and feel  the momentum around the Jagaban candidacy and the furore that  will  not go way over the Muslim Muslim ticket and you will be surprised that in  ,spite of this the ticket is not losing steam but is gathering accommodation and understanding even in unexpected Christian quarters and you  can sense that this ticket  is like an idea whose time has come and  with which  no one can  do anything about  ,  not to talk of stopping . Of  course you  may attribute this   to  the pedigree of the Jagaban on the many bridges he had built over the years but remember that but for the Emi Lokan cry of Indignation and betrayal  he would have been discarded   into  the  cheap  heap  of political  history . Only  Charisma could have revealed the time of the lamentation and indignation of Emi Lokan and that is why the Jagaban has become the issue and cornerstone of our 2023 presidential  election that can only  be resolved the way  he and most Nigerians for now want it resolved .  And it  is   in his favour  .Again I   say loud and clear,  that no one can stop an idea whose time has come .

    In  the US  , the government  of the day that succeeded   Donald Trump  hate  him for  two  things . The first is that he says the 2020 presidential  election he lost was rigged and the second is that he is on  trial  via a committee   that already alleges he called for insurrection on Jan 6 , the date in the American  constitution that the Electoral College  must certify the US election  based on electoral votes allotted  for  each state .  Trump’s  supporters believe  him blindly  on those two issues . Indeed they believe anything that government subsequently  accuses him of is based on the fact that he is right that the 2020   presidential election was rigged and that he was being framed for  fomenting insurrection on account of this . The  recent raid on his house fuel  this view of political  oppression  by his  followers . In addition  members of his party on the Jan 6 Committee  have not sought reelection in the Republican Party under the firm grip of Trump and those who have like Liz Cheney  have lost the primaries election .  Trump  is on the crest of charisma and the Biden government  is about to shoot itself in the leg in the  way it handles him  for the mid term elections in November2022 and the coming presidential election of 2024 .

    Let  me end on a controversial  note in saying that OBJ is  a charismatic leader in his own constituency , which  is the military which he led after  the assassination of late General Murtala Muhammed . Later he led the military in the metamorphosis  of that  institution into a civilian military that changed its braid cap and boots into flowing agbadas  that  make the military the dominant force in terms of past military officers dominating  our  politics ,  our senate and state houses today .  Even  OBJ  could not believe when they told him  in S Africa  that he would be president. But  he became one 20 years after handing over power to Shagari as military ruler . Till  today OBJ has been the only Nigerian leader to speak against his former military colleagues in office before he was elected democratically as president in 1999 . Abacha  almost killed him and his survival of that nightmare ensured his charisma as a leader in his military  constituency .  That explains why  he could not understand  why  democratically and politically   , his own people the Yorubas , prefer Awo and later MKO as their  charismatic leaders  of democratic  worth and value leaving OBJ to enjoy the charisma of the military  that still  holds   him  in  great respect and value as their leader of choice for all times .

    I  dedicate this piece to another charismatic leader in religion , the former Provost of the Cathedral  Church  of Christ Marina Lagos ,  the  Very   Rev Sope Johnson who died and was buried   recently at the age of 92 .He  was a  great leader of the Cathedral  on the Marina . Since politics is ubiquitous  and exists everywhere including   the   family  and the  Church  , I doff my heart to the   brave   and sterling  service of a great theologian  who  raised the standard of worship at the Cathedral  of his time  to  such  lofty heights that  one recalls with  nostalgia and fond  memories . May  his soul rest in peace Amen .

  • Power, repositioning and religion

    Power, repositioning and religion

    There  is an ageless wisecrack  that says that the funny thing about history is that history is always repeating itself . That  is our  take off point for today’s discussion and it is not enough to dust off your history books an colonization and the cold war ,  you  must  be prepared to see how history is being made not in the past ,  immediate or  far off  ,  but right before  our eyes . It  is not as if the colonial masters  are on their way back ,  but certainly new developments , some unthinkable before and some mightily predictable and others literally  lost in plain sight   provide  food for thought that history again is very  much  on the way back  to repeating itself.

    An  FBI   raid on a former president of the US , indeed the 45t , he Donald  Trump led  to the victim of the raid branding his own nation , the foremost democracy in the world a’ third world ‘ nation and  a  ‘banana republic ‘.  In  the last two  weeks or so the US Secretary  of  State , the French  president and the Russian Foreign Minister have been  visiting African  nations  to stem the tide of what  they  perceive  as Russian  effort   to subvert    democracy  in Africa  and growing Chinese  influence in Africa. The  Chinese on their own have created a new security organization with many African  states  to counter what they  say  are serious security challenges  that  many African states   are  facing akin to the Road Belt  trade project  that  was launched some time to link  China by  rails and roads to  Europe . More  importantly it is becoming clear by the day that Islamic  jihadists  are taking  over the north of Ecowas  nations incuding Nigeria  and  yet  no one has been able to say and see  clearly that the Islamisation of  west  and central Africa is afoot  . These are the issues  we will  look at  very deeply  today  .

    When Donald Trump  branded his  nation a banana republic because of the FBI raid  on his home in his absence ,  he was referring to a break  down of law and   order  common in developing nations where coups are common place and where corruption is a way of life .  Now Trump  has seen that such political  culture  has crept  into the American  way  of life  with   the   attendant  use  ,   abuse and misuse  of power   that  go   with it . He    knows first  hand   now that   such misrule  is not a monopoly of the so called  third world  to which  the great US has  suddenly descended with an  unprecedented raid for classified documents  in the custody of a former US president . It   is difficult to ask  Trump  to live  with  such development because  he will  never  agree but such have been  the fate of developing nations like Nigeria  since amalgamation in 1914  while  the so called developed  nations  not only looked the other way    nonchalantly  . They   even  compounded  our economic  and political woes  with globalisaton , democratization  , marketization and un repayable   World Bank  loans and their   financially suicidal   cruel    repayment   conditionalities .  Now  the chicken  has  come home to  roost  for Trump  and  he has repositioned  his nation  as a banana    republic . Knowing Trump  for who  he is  however ,  I  am  sure he is going to make political capital out of this repositioning ,  brand  himself a victim  of sheer political    persecution  in the hope that this would   propel  him to victory in the 2024 presidential election in  which  his supporters greatly  want him  to run . We  are  watching from the ring  side  ,  here  in our ‘ third   world’ ,  the  evolving  2024  US  presidential  election of the latest  addition to the banana republics  of the   so called  third  world  .

    The  US Secretary   of State  this week   was in S Africa and would later visit DR Congo and  Rwanda . The  Russian Foreign Minister visited Egypt , Uganda and Ethiopia  to get support for his nation over the invasion of Ukraine  .  The  renewed  interest  of     the  US France and  Russia in Africa is centred  around  security  matters  and it is all about  how the African nations  involved and their armies can repel Islamic jihadists in Mali , Burkina Fasso and some other ECOWAS states . In  Mali  the army alienated itself from normal pre and post independence  French  military  support  the moment it staged a coup  to depose a democratically elected government . In   the face of repeated defeats  by the jihadists  however  the military junta in Mali  has turned to Russian mercenaries . The  involvement  of Russians is rooted in Mali’s history from  the Cold War  when  emerging African leaders who  were socialists allied  with the former  Soviet Union till  it collapsed  in 1991 .It  is apparent that Mali  is finding it difficult  to contain the jihadists threatening  its  government and its territorial  integrity  but  that weakened security position is what  confronts  most  ECOWAS states at present   .Yet  because  Islam  is involved  the security  position is slowly  but surely  becoming alarming and almost intractable . Again  we need to  turn to history  to find  our way out of the woods  before  it is too late .

    Nigeria  has always   been  happy   with  American economic  cooperation  and even  military  support  without becoming a lackey  of the US  , especially   nowadays . This  is because  the   contemporary  American  political  culture  has  in   recent    times veered  away  from  basic Nigerian  religious and moral  values in terms of marriage , sex and family  values . In any  government led by  the Democrats in the US  from   the Obama    presidency ,  the government  will  not sincerely help Nigeria out of its security  problems   because Nigeria  has in place a law  against gay  marriage and homophobia  and the US would  have Nigeria jettison this  for any meaningful  economic  or  military  aide .   That   no sane government  in Nigeria    will    agree to do .  That  leaves us with  the EU nations  which  are even punishing  some members states like Poland and Hungary  which are pro life , pro marriage and  pro family ,    the opposite of which  most members of the EU regard as real  EU values  for  now . Brexit  has separated Britain  from such  EU values and the Tory  government  is not blindly  following the US and   such  values   especially the woke  culture and the rewriting of  history  to rectify the cruelties  of slavery  and racism  , but  still  the British  must  be held accountable  historically  for our security predicament of nowadays with both Islam and the modern jihadists attacking W African  states .

    When the British  came to Nigeria  they  used the bible and superior  military  technology  to subdue and subvert the ethnic nations they met on the ground .  They  used  Divide  and  Rule  ,  Indirect and Direct  Rule to forge the North and South into a whole nation called Nigeria with the amalgamation of 1914 . But  from  the start   the   envisaged  unity  has been bursting   at  the seams . Before  that the Othman Dan Fodio  jihad  has made  large parts of the North west an Islamic territory  and was expanding towards the Atlantic when the British  arrested that . In  the NE the El Kanemi of Borno  stopped the Sokoto jihad and floated his hegemony  over vast  territory of  the former NE . What  is happening now seem to be a rehash of what the Shehu of Borno stopped on the outskirts of Maiduguri  and   the British stopped  in  Ilorin ,  after Afonja succumbed  to the wiles of Alimi  and  the rulers of Ilorin became Fulanis till now . Look  at the scenario of   our  present security imbroglio and you will see that the  hand of history   is at work   and is repeating    itself . If  we rise above  religion  we  will   vanquish  a common  enemy  . If  not  ,  we will  be presiding over our own funeral as a nation state . Again , a stitch  in time saves nine .

     

  • Deterrence, checks and impotence

    Deterrence, checks and impotence

    In a week   that  you  see the unraveling of the above concepts in world politics and diplomacy you  cannot but be excited . When   global   ideological  rivals do sabre rattling on the world stage and  outstare  each other ,  and one blinks ,  you  cannot but salute a moment of history for the records of our time . Lessons evolve for the world at large on how to manage diplomacy  in the face of  potential  and imminent war ,   how    governments can govern  without  succumbing to  the terror  of insurgents   and how to call the bluff of insolent  anarchists  who attack  governments with impunity and make citizens of some nations like Nigeria  wonder if they have a political  culture  tailored to their  sustainable  survival   needs  in terms of both security and democracy  . I write   I dare say with excitement  and real  pleasure on the topic of the day . You  will soon see  why.

    The  invasion of Ukraine by Russia  recently   left   global  diplomacy   standing  on its head  . But  the visit of Nancy Pelosi  the US  Speaker  to Taiwan thus   calling the bluff  of China against  the visit  has   balanced global  diplomacy on its feet  ,  albeit  wobbly , because of earlier American   government   dithering on promoting  deterrence in Afghanistan . And  more   importantly    and  with an  openly  aggressive  Russia  that  has a track  record of treating American governments headed  by Democrats and  not Republicans in utmost contempt and disdain , as  it dealt with this Biden Administration culminating  in the insolent invasion of Ukraine by Russia  recently . I shall  make  a comparative  analysis of this event    with recent events in some  nations including Nigeria and show the balance of power and presidential checks and balances inherent in them in terms of global  and regional  politics .

    The  lesson for Nigeria  is that any   government worth its salt must  deter any   insurgents and rebels who  challenge its legitimacy and authority with impunity  .  The  Nigerian government must show  guts and boldness  in securing  the territorial integrity of Nigeria  like the USA did  recently in affirming the independence ,   sovereignty  and territorial integrity   of  Taiwan  just with one visit  of  the  leader  of an  arm  of  the  US Congress  to  China in spite of the   sabre  rattling from China . The  visit showed the emptiness of China’s braggadocio  on Taiwan and portrayed both the Chinese Communist Party , the ruling  party in China  and its military  , as toothless bulldogs . The  steady   defiance of the Taiwanese nation and military  , of Chinese jets roaming over Taiwan on the eve of the visit ,   showed that modern warfare , deterrence and  defence are an amalgam of guilt  edge  ,  state of the art technology ,  science , artificial  intelligence and   monitoring to block  or deflect  potential areal   threats  and the Taiwanese  showed   that   new  wars  are not a game of  large populations and big territories alone .

    The  Pelosi  visit also showed  the fine line of  the   separation of powers inherent in American  presidential system  of checks and balances . The American president knew of the visit and despite a recent telephone  conversation with the Chinese president that the US will  be playing  with fire if the visit went on , the  American  government did not openly ask the Speaker , head of an arm  of the US Congress not to perform her duty because that would be unconstitutional   interference of the executive arm of government in the function of  the legislature,  another arm of  government in the US presidential  system of government .

    It  is necessary to compare events in Sri  Lanka and Nigeria  and some how Spain where   imprisoned  rebels  who won election  were   allowed  to be sworn  in as  Parliamentarians . The  events  in these  three nations  showed     a weakness  of security and political  authority  . They  showed  the antithesis  of  strong political  institutions and government .

    In  Sri  Lanka a government  was swept  out of office after weeks of street  protests culminating   in the occupation of the presidential  palace and the president fleeing into exile like that of Afghanistan  on the eve of  the  take over   of Kabul   by  the Taliban   recently .The  Sri  Lankan government whose  leader got popular  because as a general in the nation’s army he defeated the notorious Tamil Tigers rebels threatening  the stability of Sri Lanka  became  so  corrupt and the people  got so hungry  and annoyed that they  sent the government  parking and protesters were seen swimming  in the presidential  palace swimming pool  with no security men  to deter or remove them  That  is   failure of government in full swing and I wish  the Sri Lankan  people  the best   of luck  in sanitizing their  political space without  violence .

    In  Spain the issue  was about   secession and national  sovereignty  .  A rebel  government in Catalonia a region of Spain declared itself  independent but the rebellion was   quashed  by the  sovereign government in Spain and the leaders of  the  government tried and jailed .But  a few of them even in jail  contested and won parliamentary elections  and two  of them had to be brought in from  prison to be  sworn in but they  would  not be allowed to  vote on formation of government  coalitions . The  government itself has a  slim majority about two  and that suits the government . That  is democracy on tenterhooks . Yet  the fact that they were  sworn  in showed  the strength  and  virility  of Spanish  democracy . Spanish   democracy     has taught  successfully  with military might that sovereignty  and  territorial  integrity of Spain cannot be challenged  with impunity   by  rebels  and dare  devil  insurgents.

    We  round  up with Nigeria where the talk of the   town of the town is rampant insecurity and the fear of the Muslim Muslim ticket  of the ruling APC . Government spokesmen  have decried the concerns on insecurity as exaggerated and  attacked a section of the media as glamorizing terrorism and  insurgency . Which is not realistic and responsible . Social  media could be accused of exaggeration and calumny  driven by the opposition to bring government down but that does not  detract  from the grim  reality that federal government and governance nationally  is under serious  security  risk . It  is the duty of the national formal media to report the truth and saying it as it is  the duty of the free press and Nigeria has the most  robust in Africa if not the world  for now . The  cancellation of railway  routes linking important economic and trade routes announced by  the Nigerian Railway Corporation  this week  because  of terrorists attacks is an acknowledgement of  insecurity  by government . It  places a huge  potential repayment  burden on the Nigerian  government  to its Chinese   construction partners who  are notorious for not ever giving free lunches .A nasty  loan  repayment  failure looms  ominously in an  horizon  of insecurity that threatens further insecurity and political and economic stability . Nobody  should be branded  a doomsayer for saying the omens  are  not right . It is time for the Nigerian  government to  do a Pelosi on insurgency and insecurity  in Nigeria  .Just as the American Speaker  did in calling the bluff of the toothless  dog  that  China turned out to be over its bluff that the US would be playing with fire if it allowed the visit to Taiwan . As  the  saying goes , a stitch  in time saves nine .

     

  • Power, security and war

    Power, security and war

    Given  the spate of insecurity in Nigeria’s  capital Abuja , the North in general  , as well as many parts of the Nigerian nation  , there is no denying that Nigeria is in a grim state of an undeclared war . Europe ,  the origin  of colonialism on the other hand ,  is at war with Russia  over that  country’s  invasion of its  neighbor Ukraine . If  I remember my European  history correctly  , it was British Foreign  Secretary   and   later  PM ,  Lord  Palmerstone   who  reportedly  boasted in Parliament  that ‘  I have brought  a new world   into existence  , to redress  the balance of the old ‘   This  was  at  the advent of British  misadventure in piracy ,  that created colonies and mixed up  strange bedfellows and ethnic groups  into amalgamated  nations like Nigeria. You  could put such bold  words  into the mouth of Russian President Vladmir Putin  nowadays in  the way and  manner he invaded Ukraine  so unexpectedly before our eyes      and you  will  be  hitting the nail on the head ,  on the creation of a new global balance of power  and terror  ,  all rolled  into  one iron fist  that knocked  out diplomacy , and  the old  international order of East and  west ,   all   in one fell  swoop .   The  repercussion  and  consequences of Palmerstone’s  boast  ages ago  and the aggression  of  Putin’s   Russia starting  another Cold  War in our time form the kernel  of our discussion  today  .

    The  French  and British were colonial past masters of Africa but  in a clear case of the pot calling the kettle black   , the French President  Emmanuel   Macron  on  visit   this   week  to Benin  Republic and Cameroon former French colonies  ,   accused Russia of  colonial  imperialism  in the way it has invaded Ukraine .  Macron    accused  Russia  of  starting    a new Cold War   using the weapons   of information , food and energy  .This  was about the same time  that Russian Foreign Minister  Sergei  Lavrov was in Uganda alleging that  the west  was lying that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is behind  the present   global food insecurity , inflation  and rising  energy  prices. Meanwhile in  Britain  our former colonial  master  ,outgoing PM Boris Johnson    on his   way out of power ,   gave the Winston Churchill  Prize for leadership  to President Zelensky of Ukraine   and  that  really  did not surprise me and I will show why later .These  events  then ,   their  history and relevance  as they  relate to the state of undeclared war in Nigeria where opposition senators have threatened  the president   with  impeachment for non performance  and terrorists have reportedly  threatened to kidnap  our president  .will  be examined  in their various  relevance  and importance .

    We  start  with Macron’s  visit to Africa  ,   the relevance of which  is that  it is  to  beef up security against Jihadists  hitting Benin from its North like Nigeria . The Beninois president was happy with the offer especially as France has returned  some artifacts stolen from Benin during colonial  era. According to the President  of Benin  it showed that France has purged itself of its past policy  of superiority complex against its former colonies .  Now  Benin  is Nigeria’s  next door neighbor  and France’s  role  in securing Benin against Jihadists  and terrorists like Boko Haram should  interest  us either for good or bad .

    Similarly Macron visited Cameroon for the  same security  purpose . Cameroon’s president is 89 years old Paul Biya  who  has been in power for 50  years  –  since 1982 -but is  not looking senile given his afro hair style and dapper  designer’s  suit   when pictured  with Macron  . Biya  however  is concerned  with the issue  of insecurity in Cameroon  enough  to welcome the French president to help out in confronting the threat  of jihadists in his nation  without  taking that as another form of recolonisation .

    That  takes us  to the UK which  colonized Nigeria and  whose PM gave  the Winston Churchill prize for leadership  to  Ukraine’s  President Zelensky Really   I do  not think  the British give a damn  what  happens  to  Nigeria in terms of security . First  Boris  cannot do anything now . Indeed the award  to Zelensky   was more of a personal one than a national honour . I wrote  here  before  in admiration at the way Zelensky  carried himself in the wake of the Russian invasion of his nation and I said  then that Boris Johnson an  admirer of war time British PM  Winston Churchill  would  have wanted to be in Zelensky’s   shoes  . Now he  has proven that notion of mine right as he leaves office  abruptly .

    With  regard to British apathy  on the insecurity in Nigeria I think  compunction over our state of insecurity is the answer and  it is to be found in the mistake of the amalgamation  of 1914 and  our demography  and census  from colonial  times . I  think  to a great  extent  our census  figures  have not matched reality .To  use  the language  of the moment  they  are    fake  news  . Just  look  at the incessant North South migration from the beginning  and you  wonder why  the destination of such migration is always having  less population figures than the origin . It  just  does  not add  up.

    This week  the members of the new Census  Commission for this year’s census  paid a courtesy  visit to former President Olusegun  Obasanjo in his Abeokuta residence . They  reportedly  congratulated him for conducting a successful  census during his tenure of office . The shrewd High  Owu   chief  however asked the members of the census to  get at the truth and do a census that would be useful for planning , resources allocation and  boundary  adjustments . The former  president stressed the need for the truth in conducting the census  and that  is the kernel  of the census conundrum . Some  of us had expected OBJ  as president and a detribalized Nigerian  to  conduct a truthful  census then  ,  but were dis appointed at the rigmarole   of census figures results  that  did  not match what  is so very obviously on the ground

    If  the British are  to blame for teaching  their favourite wards from the North that power  in a democracy is a game of numbers and they  can always claim  more  than their southern  counterparts , then  OBJ   too  should share part of the blame for the absence of the truth in the census of his time for which the census class of 2023 is commending him  , before starting on its own journey for the truth . In  the US gerrymandering  is used to redraw voting districts  to   favour  parties but  it is based on ten- year  accurate , census  figures .  Until  Nigeria  perfects  its census figures we shall  be chasing shadows in terms of meaningful development like OBJ cautioned . Similarly  our intelligence reports on security  will  not tally ,  if we focus on wrong areas purportedly with high population ,  when  indeed such  places are uninhabitable and people  have fled them  because of the creeping Sahel  ,  in search of food and water  for survival .  That  is the root cause of the spate of insecurity  that threatens  so  brazenly to bring the present Nigerian state to its   knees .  How  census in an election year will  solve the problem  , should   be  the seventh  wonder of the world .

  • Leadership, opportunities and performance

    Leadership, opportunities and performance

    The killing of two Catholic  priests  by their abductors after  the payment of the demanded ransom is a highly  provocative  issue for all Nigerians especially Christians .The  coincidence  of that with the announcement of the Vice President candidate of the ruling APC  on a Muslim Muslim ticket  for the 2023 presidential  elections is food for thought  today  ,   no matter how  unpalatable the sad news is .  We  take this along with the defeat of the British Nigerian Kemi  Badenoch in the race  to choose a successor to British PM Boris Johnson ,  a disgraced politician who  was nevertheless given a standing ovation by his party on his last day in parliament . We   look  at   the  implication of that for the last  two  candidates expected to succeed Johnson as  Tory leader and the UK next PM . We  examine an obvious piece  of absurdity inherent in the official visit  of the US president to the Middle East to solicit for oil  supplies increase from Saudi Arabia  and the oil cartel OPEC . However ,   the US is the largest  supplier of oil in the world but because of Climate Change the incumbent Biden Administration has decided  deliberately  to  kill  its domestic oil  industry because of a campaign  pledge and the unbelievable  revelation by the aging US president   recently   that people  of his age who grew up in Delaware  his home state  have  cancer  later in life   because  of the fumes  of fossil  fuel  .

    I  suspect  sabotage  against  the Muslim Muslim  ticket by the  abductors and killers of the Catholic  priests given its timing but  that will  not work  because as I wrote  last  week , the ticket is  a  pair  of tested capable hands that has experience in such  matters and will nip the insecurity problem  in the bud and not resort to the usual  handwringing and pathetic  admonitions of the present administration which  has been  done as usual .  Just  as the nation is turning red with  the  blood of innocent Nigerians as if our great   nation is a sprawling  endless  killing field .

    It  is  important to  note  that after receiving the VP candidate and listening to his  beautiful  speech in Abuja   the president noted  wryly  that  he would reply to that speech after the victory  of the Muslim Muslim ticket  at the polls . We  share his confidence and cannot  wait for that to happen so that we have fresh  capable  hands to get us out of our  present    incessant  bloody  insecurity conundrums . Which   really   is a   potent  threat   to    the   expected  smooth   political    transition   and change  of  hands  in 2023 . That  goal  should  not be made ‘ a bridge  too far’ because of mindless insecurity murder and mayhem .

    On  the failure of Kemi Badenoch  to reach the last  two  to contest for  the premiership  of Britain  let me first  clearly  doff  my hat  to a woman of substance and a brave,  genuine leader . That  she could  go that far is  a tribute  to her background as IT professional  and a lawyer . I  later read that she was considered a rightist  radical and   I  admire  her guts in telling people that there is no institutional  racism in Britain and gave herself as an example of someone who got  to contest to be a PM  in  the short  time she has spent on the political stage .She  went on to say that there  are problems of racial discrimination but the good example like hers should  be part of the narrative and not the bad ones which  she  accused the liberals  of exaggerating . She is definitely  anti  woke and believes that human beings are male and female . On  that score her African values are obvious  and tally with the goals  of this column at the inception of the Biden Administration in the US which  put  LGBTQ   and same sex marriage  as  the core of human rights  to be exported all  over the world .   This   column   is against   that   in all  ramifications .Kemi  reportedly  stopped the use of gender free toilets at  her campaign  and labeled them  male and female to the horror of the gender free advocates . On that score alone she is a  good daughter of her father and I wish  her better luck  next time in her political ambition  Like Jesse Jackson famously said when he lost  the US   presidential  campaign  nomination for the Democratic Party – ‘ God is not finished with me yet’ . Certainly  , Kemi  Badenoch  can beat  her chest and say that boldly   and   proudly  because  age and time are still on her side .

    Given  the standing ovation to  Boris Johnson  by his  party  on his departure  from parliament,  and his mischievous  declaration in a foreign language  that he will  be back , I want  to hazard  a guess  on the prospects  of  his two possible  successors Rishi Sunak  and  Liz  Truss . Even  though Boris  Johnson  had    said   earlier   that he would  not back any of the Tory  candidates , I think  in way it is payback  time for Johnson ,   for  those   who jettisoned him and resigned enmasse  from his cabinet . Sunak  , a former Chancellor  was one of them . Liz Truss  never resigned and that could earn her Boris’  support which is crucial and important in the Tory   leadership  succession battle . Again  ,  Sunak is of migrant  descent and will  be first of his kind if he wins . But  the UK  is not Ireland where a  gay PM of migrant origin was elected   recently .In  addition Truss is a well  known Foreign Minister  for Britain and is a very forceful  personality . She has said emphatically that she is capable and can  take tough  decisions and she sounds  believable . I do  not think Sunak  can take her on in a debate . Any way the die is cast and Boris Johnson , even though he has been  silenced for now ,   maybe  about to have his way on  the   choice   of  his successor . Now  we go to Joe Biden’s   dubious  oil trip to Saudi Arabia  in  the pursuit of Climate Change and the collapse of the American oil industry  . Biden  should borrow a leaf  from the German U turn on climate change  and the resuscitation of the  German coal  industry in the face of Russian cut off of oil  supplies to the EU  and Germany which  does not trust Russia   anymore and has not only revived alternate non green sources of energy domestically,  but is doing so with the support of the Green Party  which  is part of the ruling coalition in Germany  for now . That  to me is clear  headed political  thinking and pragmatism .

    Unlike the politically debilitating     oil   hussling of the  American  president  to Saudi  Arabia to increase global  oil supplies to relieve spiraling   domestic oil  and gas  prices in the US reeling from avoidable high  inflation  and   which  under Biden has decided to forego fossil  fuel which  it can use to bring down inflation and high  prices but which  the Biden administration has refused  to do because of   a stubborn     or should I   say  senile   approach   to  climate   change . It is a policy of economic suicide and the US  does  not deserve its present leadership in this unfortunate scenario. Then  the issue  of cancer for those living in Delaware and of Biden’s age showed that the climate change excuse to kill fossil  fuel is fake news and the reason goes deeper than that . It is a   childhood fantasy  and hatred  now being  executed  in old age and with immense political  power  . Such  an excuse  can only  be tolerated on the ground of senility and there is no doubt that that  is the lot of the US president  today . I can  only say –long live the USA .