Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Leaders, accountability and surprises

    Leaders, accountability and surprises

    I illustrate the topic of  today with what I have labeled ‘ a tale of three presidents  ‘   –  involving one incumbent president and two former ones ,  in the context of their utterances and  news exposure in the last one week . The aim is to show that world leaders are not infallible and while some learn from their mistakes while in office  ,    some of  those in office seem never to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors . Their actions or inactions in this regard  throw  up pleasant or unpleasant surprises that  can be used to assess their  pedigree ,  quality of leadership and legacy  especially  when out of office .

    The  three leaders I have chosen are S Africa’s  President Cyril  Ramaphosa  , Nigeria’s  former President Goodluck Jonathan and former US President Donald Trump . The  issues that have brought them into focus are namely accountability and fraud in the case of the S African president , the statement   by   Nigeria’s   former   president that seeking the presidency again will ‘ diminish him ‘  and the question  on the suspension of the US constitution   and cancellation of the US  2020  presidential  election  by Donald Trump,  because of the revelations  by Twitter , that the technology giant just bought by billionaire  Elon Musk  censored information that would have made the winner lose that election .

    Let  me first  point out the surprises  or absurdities   in these three situations  before going to the nitty   gritty     and importance of their occurrence and relevance to their different political culture and the lesson to be learnt  by all observers of their behavior   on the global  scene  . With  regard to  Ramaphosa his case is not much  different from that of the man  in the DSTV  commercial  who stuffed   wads of money  in his  mattress  instead of taking them to the bank only to discover later that they have been  stolen .In   Jonathan’s case the surprise is that those who bought the 100m naira form for him to contest the primaries for  the 2023 presidential   election  were the  nomads and jihadists who made his  presidential  tenure a security night mare which  has not in any way  been assuaged by his successor  even   after two terms of office . In  Donald Trump’s  situation it is a clear  case of turning   righteous  indignation to idiocy   to ask for the cancellation of the 2020 US election as well as the  suspension of the US constitution  because of the censorship of information on incumbent President Joe Biden son’s  Hunter’s  lap  top ,  that would have made Biden lose the 2020 presidential election if they  have been released,  as they should have  been   ,  on the eve of the 2020 presidential election that Trump consequentially  lost .

    Let  us now look at the political culture in which  each of these leaders operated to find out the reasons or lack of it for their actions .In S Africa it appears that the  legacy  of  probity and integrity in office which   the late Nelson Mandela  left as president are being shred to pieces by the last  two presidents of the republic. Jacob Zuma the last president was  disgraced out of office because of corruption . The  incumbent   , Ramaphosa is under probe for concealing theft on his farm claiming that the money stolen,  about 4-8m dollars  was proceeds of sale of buffalos even  though an investigation said  that was  not  the case and that even if  there was a sale, the money  was  too  considerable in terms of foreign  currency,   for a farm    transaction . Ramaphosa  , as president is head of the ruling party ANC and is due for reelection on December 18 and his  leadership   is questionable  indeed, under the circumstances . Yet ,  he was regarded as’ Mr Clean’ when he replaced Jacob Zuma who  was an embodiment of corruption and was cleaned out by the party on that account .The difference between Ramaphosa’s buffalo transaction and the stolen mattress money in the DSTV commercial is that  while man in the commercial acknowledged  his loss and wailed on it  , Ramaphosa concealed his loss and even ‘kidnapped ‘the thieves to conceal the  theft   because the money involved was  deemed  too much  to be kept in on a farm .  The  event   has been aptly   named  ‘ Farmgate ‘ scandal . It  is a sad  story  indeed that a president and a  petty thief  can have so much in common except  that one bolted and   the other kept a straight face and tried to cover his loss .I  wonder how the S African  leader can survive his self made   and   looming  removal as ANC leader  and president of  S  Africa .

    With  regard  to our Goodluck Jonathan who  reportedly   said it is beneath  him to be president again , I agree with him .He went further to say that if he ever becomes president it will  be due to circumstances beyond his control . He  may think that is not possible but he could be wrong .A past ruler here once became president against his ‘ personal wishes and desires  ‘  and years later when  told  he could be president again ,  retorted with the question ‘ how many presidents do you want out of me ‘ . He   soon  after became president for 8 years again  .  The  Chinese  have a saying –   ‘count no man lucky till  he is dead ‘Former President Jonathan however took a jibe at the Muslim Muslim  ticket wondering  who will  represent the other  ‘ block  ‘   meaning   Christians  during National Day  Celebrations and other religious events . Which  is a  very  unexpected and  surprising concern coming from a former head of state  who should know better given  that Nigeria is a secular state and there is freedom of worship and religion and attendance at state events    have  no religious connotations .. The  former  president  has    further  said he is enjoying his sinecure work  of mediating in coups against democracy in W Africa. He is well advised to stick to that and not bring religion into focus .He   should   not , especially  be   asking armed soldiers   ,  who have seized  power forcibly  ,  about  their religious inclinations when trying to persuade them to return to their barracks ,  as his present important  , though  dangerous   duties ,  seem to demand .

    In  the case of the revelation by Twitter that the company censored information favorable to the  Trump  campaign and silenced news on the lost  lap top of Hunter Biden that would have  imperiled his father’s presidential  campaign is bad news for election integrity and transparency in the US  . That  alone  is enough to earn empathy and sympathy for  Donald Trump who  has all along said that the election he lost was rigged . I think  , with the benefit of hindsight now ,  Elon Musk bought Twitter at a huge price to bring this out so  that American voters can see that big tech has influenced their democracy against free speech and expression .Trump’s  call for abrogation of the constitution and cancellation of the election was  therefore  premature and extravagant as Elon Musk said the evidence of censorship during that election was  just unfolding on the new Twitter he has bought . Trump  should just sit back , if he can ,  and watch the reaction of the US public and electorate to the revelations which  are bound to earn him enormous public sympathy and goodwill especially as he just announced that he is running for the presidency again . It  was  the height of absurdity indeed for a former president to  say the things  he has said on the US constitution and the cancellation of the US 2020 election . Trump  is obviously the aggrieved party  and victim in the revelations coming out of this  Twittergate and again  , I say  he should  just sit back and enjoy himself as he seeks re election and not behave like a hollering big baby crying   un – consolably  that his toys have  been stolen   forever . When , indeed , they  are about to  be brought back to him , come 2024   subject  to good behavior henceforth on his part ,  if he  can  manage that.

  • Free speech, religion and power

    Free speech, religion and power

    There is  serious fuel scarcity in Nigeria especially Lagos the commercial capital and the effect is biting economically mostly , with the attendant escalating effects on all aspects of human life . Yet  it is booming business for some people and cartels benefiting   illicitly  from it .  Especially the black markets selling near closed and impotent petrol stations  ,  involving virile  , strong youths of both sexes   and the bigger petrol importers  and   marketers   . Yet it  seems   brazenly    offensive to  those in government and in the deep and shallow corridors of power  , to hear people complain of    fuel  scarcity   and  the obvious   government inertia  , indifference or outright  callousness to  fuel  scarcity   and  the suffering of the teeming masses , the electorate in the all  important 2023 presidential election  .As  if this is not an issue  of deep concern to those who will  vote in the same election and   decide  whether to stop or continue  the suffering ensuing from frequent power  shortages and long queues  at petrol stations  on the eve of Christmas  and on the highway to the all important 2023 presidential election .

    The way those in power , especially elected representatives in a democracy react to criticism or dissent form the kernel  of my investigations and discussions today and I will reach far and wide to make my illustrations and conclusions .I  will start with  the new owner of Twitter Elon Musk’s   declared objective to ensure free speech on Twitter but not ‘ free reach ‘ . I will  endeavour to  make a connection between religion , history and politics  in the forthcoming  December 6 run  off and   last    mid term senatorial   election in the state of Georgia in the US  between two  black men [ Raphael Warnock  of the Democratic Party and  Herschel Walker  of the Republican Party , ]    and the Muslim Muslim ticket of the APC in Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election .I   will  round up with the keen observation of a comedian  Charlemagne tha God  in the US  , of    the  new but  dangerous    trend    he identified  in the US  of some powerful people labeling those who  disagree  with them  as suffering from one sort of phobia   or the other .

    Read Also: Culture, colonialism and change

    Obviously , the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk is having serious political implications not only in the US but also  in the western world ,   if not the world at large . Musk  is creating his own brand of democracy involving polling those on Twitter to make far reaching  and important communication and information decisions . He used that to return vocally  castrated  and politically  silenced former US president Donald Trump   to Twitter . Musk  has declared himself a ‘ Free Speech Absolutist’  and he has  vowed  to bring in place automated censorship on content integrity on Twitter . His return of Trump who has not accepted the offer on Twitter  but who cannot  deny that Musk has been his salvation army   or Robin  Hood   of Sherwood  Forest on his  loud silencing by pre Musk Twitter    that   probably made Trump to  lose the 2020 US  presidential election  , has put Twitter on collision course with those who hate Trump both in the US and EU . Pro LGBTQ EU has already  threatened that it will deal squarely with the new Musk  acquired Twitter and would impose massive fines if it violates EU technology regulations  . Which is normal  but is ominous as Musk  has insisted that free speech does not imply free reach which  means Twitter will censor    the information  it deemed dangerous to societal  good and that may not coincide with  EU values  . Current  EU values conflict  with  what  new  Italian PM  Giorgia  Meloni  has  described  as  placing  priority  on  ‘ God Family and nation ‘. Meloni  has  said  that the new radical in today’s world is the conservative   person and that is at odds with EU and US present governments’ values on the social and  religious institutions highlighted by Meloni  They    are   however compatible with why Musk acquired Twitter and what he will do with his powerful and influential  acquisition on the nature  of the radicalism  of the  new  conservative  identified by Meloni and which brought her party to power in Italy .

    With  regard to the run off elections in Georgia  I  will draw a parallel between  it and the Muslim Muslim presidential ticket of the Jagaban and Shetima  of the APC . It  is not as if I do not recognize the challenge of the PDP and ‘  the rest’  to the APC ticket but with regard to the PDP my advice is that  a house  divided  against  itself  cannot stand and until  the Wike  challenge  and menace are  resolved  , the PDP is  like  someone sleeping  in a house with thatched roof  on fire  . That on its own gives the APC ticket  a straight passage to power ceteris paribus as the economists will say ,  even though  they know that all  things are not always equal .

    I  say  boldly  that  the origin and history of the Georgia senatorial election and the APC Muslim Muslim ticket   are rooted in the quest  for equity both amongst  blacks in the US and Nigerians in colonial Nigeria . The  two  candidates for both the Republican and the Democratic Party contesting in the election are  both blacks yet  the concept of run offs was created to ensure  that blacks cannot  get elected after slaves were freed after the US war on slavery  won by Abraham Lincoln .Run  offs were originally designed to eliminate  blacks eligible to contest until the coast  is clear for white candidates to face each other .  The Democratic Party  candidate is a black  pastor  Raphael  Warnock  credited by   opponents  as  being an agent of white rule because his opponents think he is  preaching a white man’s religion which is Christianity .  His  defenders however pointed out that he is a proponent of black theology  or liberation  theology which  uses religion to fight oppression and racism . The  Nation of Islam in  the US rejects black  pastors because it says they  cannot preach the truth against racism because Christianity is both a  Jewish  and  white man’s religion . The champions of black  theology  however counter that  the Nation of Islam criticism is important because it is a  check  on black pastors to speak  the truth on their pulpits and not succumb to white supremacy in spite of their Christianity which they say is colour blind and honest in its entirety . Which  is an argument  I buy and which  should be applicable to the Muslim Muslim ticket as both Islam and Christianity were imported to Nigeria from abroad and adherents  of both have been living together peacefully ever since and I see no reason for any extravagant or  negative opinion on  a matter vindicated  by history  and human  tolerance and understanding .

    I end with the bold observation of Charlemagne tha God that calling those who disagree with gender surgery in the US should not be branded as transphobic .  He said people should  learn to respect other people’s opinion . This is not the case in the US  and  in a way  in Nigeria with people who do not agree with the APC Muslim Muslim  ticket in  and I buy this comedian’s argument  even though his name seems godless to me . In fact branding those who disagree on sexual orientation  as hateful as racists    surely  are ,  makes a mockery   of  serious  discrimination  like racism or religious discrimination and   violation  of religious freedom . It  has  been observed that the US Transportation Secretary a gay man married to a man , his husband  , sees most  issues on identity terms which invariably condemns those who frown at his own identity . That surely is wrong for a man who has an important public office who  will  surely  be jailed in Nigeria which has anti gay laws punishable  with imprisonment  for 14 years .  Charlemagne also  disagreed with those who practice cancel  culture on behalf of BLM – Black lives matter or racism . He  said  such  people are practicing ‘ outrage culture ‘  and I agree with him  . He  went on to say that comedians are social critics  but should not be punished or vilified for their jokes and comedians too should not feel bad if people don’t laugh at their jokes sometimes .  Such honest and pragmatic  opinions are  needed more amongst the high and mighty , the powerful  in society  who  should  cultivate a mature culture of tolerance to make leadership in a democracy meaningful and beneficial . Which  really is the essence of elective democracy  ,    freedom of speech  and true religion  .

  • Technology, power and control

    Technology, power and control

    An  elderly friend of mine once lamented in my presence  , when told of the action of  someone he helped greatly to put in power  , that until you have given a man power  , you cannot  really   know the sort of man he is .Obviously  my  friend did not approve of the way his protégé  has used the power he helped him  get  . It  is the  use of power in a democracy  that attracts our attention today and we do that on the initial  premise that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely . We  also  assume that political  power while obtained at the ballot box is not the ultimate   power in any  democracy .Especially when  technology is the dominant means of  mass  communication ,and  information as at the beginning of the Information technology revolution ,   and more so  now   in our   present  era  where  disinformation and misinformation   have become  common place and almost  the  norm.  Just as   nations   compete   to use   technology  to   influence elections in adversarial and enemy nations so that  they can wield more power than they have now in global power politics  , diplomacy  and International Relations .

    Nothing  illustrates  this technological  development more   than the claim of Russian influence on the election of Donald Trump as US president in 2016  and the attendant but failed probe to prove that claim . It did  not end there as the big tech  companies in the US silenced a  US president that Americans claim to be’ the most  powerful man in the world ‘ because they  elected him when unelected  Twitter banned Trump  from its  platform .Thus eliminating this American president from  power on the eve  of   the next election then of 2020  which Trump  consequently lost  . This  technological  power grab  has  now reached full circle  with the purchase of Twitter by the world’s  richest man Elon Musk and the reinstatement  of Trump’s twitter account just as he announced that  he wants to contest to be president again in the US in the forthcoming 2024 US presidential election .Certainly  one can say what goes up  comes down on  this issue and it is on that light that  we consider the  effect of technology on world  politics as we know it today .

    We  shall  look at  the   analysis  of some issues  and see  how technology is   being used   to  further  political    goals  at  the expense   of  objectivity   and the pursuit  of the truth   as expected in journalism  We  shall  prospect  if there is any foreign or technological  influence on Nigeria’s  on going  presidential campaign .We  shall  delve  into contemporary  history to see if Cold  War politics in a bi polar  world is resurrecting  through   technology and if so  whether its  location has changed from its colonial genes to the  fertile  and highly  technological  territories of the US and  the EU .  A  tough task  you  might say  , but very much worth the try .

    We  start  with  both the US and Nigeria in the use of technology to analyse  issues   and influence public opinion and voting .In  Nigeria  social media is being used to push  the candidacy  of both Peter  Obi and Rabiu Kwankwanso when it is obvious that these candidates lag far behind in the race with the big candidates of the ruling APC and the PDP . It  is wishful  thinking  to put   the Jagaban on the same level with Peter  Obi  when talking about national  politics . It reminds one of what our late PM  Tafawa Balewa  said of Ghana under the its highly  vocal president Kwame Nkrumah that Ghana’s noise on the international  scene against Nigeria is like comparing the elephant  with the ant .The facts are there but not seen in plain sight by those who  cannot see that no one can   stop an idea whose time has come .You  cannot concretise on the social  media platform what is not pragmatically  on the ground politically .Media platforms or pundits pushing  Obi and Kwankwanso are hoping for a scenario  that brought the likes of Zelensky  to power in Ukraine or  Macron  to power  in France in his first victory when he was a political  unknown but still  managed to win . Nigeria is neither Ukraine nor France and  the stage of our technology is not as sophisticated and advanced as  in these two  nations . I  cannot see how in a nation that the national grid is always breaking down the masses who  have no light can tune in to vote for  candidates who are just paper tigers or to use  the appropriate language mere platform  champions with feet of clay   on the   rugged  terrain of mass mobilization of the electorate to come out and vote at  the polling booths rather than the anonymity of cell  phones and phantom  popularity .

    A  similar situation is on in the US media on  the recent  killings of gay  people and recently the gunning down of five people in a  gay  club .US media in support of gay and  against gun rights usually attribute such killings to hate  speech  and expect such  killers to be anti gay people  or  pro  gun  activist  . Events have shown  however that the latest  killer is a transgender person him self while  another killer of gays later told the police that he is gay  himself . There is no substitute   for  fact   finding in journalism   and verification  of facts should precede the creation of opinions to be published and pushed about as truth with the aid of rampant and very  fast information technology .Such  misrepresentation can lead to false conclusions from which  people or  the electorates will get the wrong information on which parties to vote for and what  issues will  determine the results of elections .

    Again  on Nigeria ,  it is apparent that the Americans are very  much interested in the outcome of Nigeria’s  2023  presidential  election and they do it in such a patronizing  way.  As if Nigerians have no right to complain in the same way they dealt  mercilessly with Donald Trump  over the false claim of Russian collusion in the 2016 US presidential election .  They  should  know or be told that Nigeria is a sovereign  state and can conduct its  own  election  .They do not have much  to teach  us after the stolen election of 2020 in the US and the frantic effort nationwide to ensure election integrity after Trump trumpeted that the election was rigged . On our part  we already  know where the shoe pinches on election rigging but   are  prepared to paddle  our own canoe . The  struggle  definitely  continues in this regard .

    Lastly we end on the use of technology to make the Russian invasion of Ukraine a global  war at the expense of Russia the invader . Russia was wrong to have invaded Ukraine but the western media has come out fully to demonise the president of Russia Vladmir Putin as the devil  incarnate . Western  weaponry at state of art quality have been unleashed against Russia and big  tech companies in the west have bolted from Russia and are using the technology of hysteria to arouse Russians  against their leader .I doubt if Russia will win the war but it needs some  face saving diplomacy to withdraw but the technological impact has damaged its president’s  prestige and personality globally . The only respite in the technological  assault on Russia’s  leadership   is  for the new   mid term Republican  House  majority in its  expected  technological  assault on  the Biden presidency through the examination of the contents of the   long lost laptop of the president’s  son Hunter   to  stifle aid to Ukraine and ask  questions of the war leadership of Zelensky and the way  he has treated the opposition  during the war that Joe  Biden   has  such  massive personal and lucrative interests  in supporting .Again ,  a lap  top,  an instrument of technology ,  is setting the pace for the next  round of America’s  very combustible politics and culture nowadays.

  • Ethnocentricity, elections and balance

    Ethnocentricity, elections and balance

    A looming   presidential  election in Nigeria  , a just  concluded one in  the US  and   the prospect  of another   in 2024   ,the FIFA World Cup in Quatar  starting  next  Monday  , and the dynamics  of   free and fair  competition   driving all  these  seemingly isolated  events drive our discussion  today . They  are all about  participation    ,  competition  ,  and the will  to win either power or glory  or both at the end of the day . In  competitions participants assume the confidence that they are  the best to win . When that assumption gets into the quest  for power and  the way one person sees the  values and beliefs of other competitors as inferior , then  the malaise of ethnocentricity and the biases it coveys creeps into the competition or  the perception  of issues or values different from one’s own view  point . Put  simply ethnocentricity is the view that one’s culture is superior  to others . It  was a term coined by Sumner in anthropology but it is very  much  at stake today  in modern   politics , international    Relations ,  Diplomacy ,  gender considerations  and in sports  especially  in the World Cup starting in Quatar  two  days from today .

    Let  us first identify the symptoms of ethnocentricity   inherent   in these   highlighted events and competitions  ,  before proceeding to assess  their  implications in their various  fields of    endeavour  .  In  Nigeria  the presidential  candidate of the ruling APC   the Jgaban   Bola  Ahmed Tinubu  went  to great length   to explain  to the Christian  Association of Nigeria  – CAN –  this week  that  he did  not pick  a   Muslim Muslim  ticket  for the 2023 presidential  election because of  his faith but because of performance  and potential   of his running mate Shettima   to make him win .  . Yet  ethnocentricity  is at play, ,  at   least    on the surface on both    the charge and the disclaimer .

    The  just  concluded mid terms elections in the US did not give  the Republicans the  much  expected  ‘ red  wave ‘  or mammoth victory over the Democrats. But the Democrats owe their luck to pro  abortion groups especially  women who think abortion is a fundamental human right and turned out to  vote against the Republicans  who appointed the  SCOTUS  -Supreme Court  of the US –  judges who  overturned the pro abortion law recently  .  Just  as the anti  abortion- group favored by the SCOTUS  in their  overturning of the  pro abortion law on the eve of the mid  term elections  think that abortion is the work   of the devil . Running  along side the mid term  elections was the declaration of Donald Trump  to run for president again in 2024 and  one could see immediately the anger and ire of CNN analysts on the emergence of the old enemy that made them lose their professional objectivity in his  –  Trump –  one term of office from 2016 to 2020 . A very clear case of the dog returning to its vomit and rabid political  ethnocentricity  .

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    With  the FIFA World  Cup next week it was nice  to hear the FIFA president  asking EU nations to respect the culture of Quatar where a sports official  from the host nation   recently said homosexuality is a sign of a sick  mind . The FIFA   boss  asked nations where gay rights are recognized to leave human  rights and ideologies behind as they come to Quatar  to play football  on the world stage . That to me is the best way to minimize the damage of rampant ethnocentricity in any human  endeavor  and  FIFA  has set an example worthy of emulation in  minimizing the dangers of ethnocentricity ,  for  the world at large to emulate  .

    In  looking at the implications  of these ethnocentric  maladies one should  consider solutions  that  provide  some balance on  their  effect in their various contexts . And  we do that serially too . That again  leads us to the Jagaban’s  explanation  to CAN this week as well as the agenda set by CAN for support for a  Tinubu presidency ,  come his victory at the polls in 2023 . CAN obviously  was telling the Jagaban that  there is no free lunch and the candidate  must play   ball   if CAN  must  turn a blind eye to the Muslim Muslim ticket . Indeed CAN asked for a balance   between  Muslims and Christians in appointments noting that Nigeria is a secular  state. CAN asked the candidate to ensure that only citizenship considerations and not religion should prevail in governance  .. According to CAN , ‘This transition  to  a modern ,  democratic, secular state from a  neo feudal ,  theocratic  state requires both constitutional and administrative reforms ‘.

    To  me  , the Muslim Muslim  ticket is the start  of   the reform  that CAN is asking  for . Nigeria is a secular  state and no  religion is superior  to the other . That  notion of superiority is inherent in the criticism of the ticket by either Christians or  Muslims . A  Christian Christian   ticket  would draw the ire of Muslims too . So  the objective of achieving a balance of competing interests should  be merit and  relevance  to set goals  and objectives and the Jagaban  has highlighted   that in his choice of   his running mate . And I know that with  the promise  to  consider CAN’s  request  on needed reforms CAN will  play  ball  with  the  Jagaban’s  sincerity ,  transparency  and honesty on the ticket  for the 2023 presidential elections .

    In the US  although   the Republicans lost senate  control  in these  mid term elections   they have the lower  house and that is a great shift of power  , and the Biden  government will   soon  feel the heat . Just  like the Democratic Party of Speaker Nancy Pelosi made life difficult for  Donald Trump  when they  controlled the house .There  seems to be   no love lost  between  the two parties in this lower house and that   shows   hatred   . Which   is worse than even  ethnocentricity  or can be called the worst kind   of it when  you  think that nothing good can come out of the other party .

    With  the declaration of Donald Trump  who some have blamed for non realization of the ‘red wave ‘ the momentum has changed to presidential  politics from  a powerful power shift  that the Democrats must  face . It is going to be difficult for them because even though the republicans majority is a slim one ,  it is still  a functional  majority  that the  Democrats  have to  live with and the Republicans  can’t  wait  to enjoy ,  after a long time in the wilderness of  congressional  impotence  .

    On  the incoming FIFA  World  Cup  in Quatar  it was a pity to hear Sep Blatter  former  FIFA president  regret  giving the hosting right to Quatar  because of   outside protests on non  recognition  of gay and human rights in that nation . Blatter  even went on to blame Michel Platini , the French soccer hero  and  former  President of UEFA for  bringing  votes against the competing  host   nations then ,  like the USA  and  the UK . I suspect the hosting loss of both powerful nations prompted the long corruption FIFA probe of both Blatter and Platini  on the  matter . Both have now been vindicated   . But  the reaction of UEFA  nations  that they will  , while playing   in Quatar  show solidarity with gay rights in a  hosting nation    that does not recognise   such rights  ,like Nigeria  , is  a lesson  in lack  of respect for other  nations’  way  of life . It   is the best of  example   of ethnocentricity  with its     ugly  fangs  bared open in a competition that demands fair play  ,   equity and  mutual  respect   for  all  participants , personal  and sovereign

  • Power, opportunities, and challenges

    Power, opportunities, and challenges

    Power, Opportunities ,and Challenges There is a Yoruba  saying that when  translated to English means that ‘ the head of the elephant is not a load for a child  ‘ . If  you look at the ongoing Nigerian   2023 presidential campaigns   and you see the forerunners then you have an idea of what I want  to dilate  on today . Add  to that the result of the presidential elections in soccer crazy Brazil and  the testy mid terms elections  next week  in the US  and  you  can easily  predict my line of thinking  on the concepts that form the title of my column today .

    In  democracies  elections breed power at  periodic  voting at  the polls . In communist  states like Russia , and China one party calls the shots and decides  ‘who gets what when and how ‘ . Which   is a form of definition of politics as well . When  armed soldiers boot  out  elected politicians as was done in Mali  ,  and  Guinea   recently ,  power   changes hands  under the barrel of the gun and not at the polls .When  power changed hands at the 2020 US presidential election during Covid 19  when  absentee and mail-  in voting  was  the vogue , Republicans were united in saying the power   changed hands at the post offices   populated  mainly  by   blacks  and where the votes were counted and not at the ballot  box.  Hence the    new terms  like ‘ stolen election’ or ‘election deniers ‘  and  ‘ballot harvesting ‘ that are   prominent  challenges in the mid terms  elections  where Donald  Trump’s election deniers are determined that power will  change indeed this time at the ballot box in favor of the Republican Party and not at the post offices as  it  did  in 2020  as there is no covid  in 2022 and the polling terrain  and challenges  are vastly  different .

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    I will use political leaders from different political systems  to  illustrate  the topic of the day . Politicians are at their best in terms of magnanimity and generosity when they win and   have power and they  are at their worst when they are about to lose power or have just lost it . In  Nigeria the campaigns have thrown  up promises to lessen the burden of the masses and improve security but Nigerian know  who to trust  this time around .The  ruling party has a lot to account for in terms of government management of insecurity especially  in the North which  wielded power  for the last eight  years but  undoubtedly the momentum and mood of the moment  favors the ruling party’s  candidate and his Muslim running mate on the Muslim Muslim  ticket . This   is gaining acceptance in spite of initial  doubts. Both  the Jagaban Shettima Kashim of the APC have been  governors before and their combined experience    and  potential to manage the economy and insecurity stands out against  their  opponents as     they face  the  contest  in this 2023 presidential elections .  As    a former    governor   of Borno  state  Shettima knows the NE where Boko Haram holds sway like the back of his hands and can  be relied on to evolve ways with his boss the Jagaban   to   put a once and for all  stop to the Boko  Haram menace . The Jagaban was a Lagos    state governor  and has groomed his successors ever since and Lagos has always  been  secure. Even  more than the North and such  governance experience in managing the destination of all migration in Nigeria without failure will  really matter in  way Nigeria  gets out of the woods in matters of economic survival and security  after this election . The  ball is in the court of the Nigerian electorate to make the right choice  nationally  to  ensure that the head  of the elephant is not a load  for a child indeed .

    Let  us take a cue from the just  concluded Brazil  presidential  elections  and the political  experience and personalities of the two  contestants . I said last week it would a bitter defeat if the incumbent president lost and a  sweet victory  if Lula   da Silva  wins and I have  been proven right. Bosonaro’s  supporters put up road  blocks all over Brazil in protests till  the Supreme Court ruled that the road  blocks should be removed   and that  was  done . For Lula it is a return to  familiar  territory  of power  after 16  years of being out of power . He was succeeded by his PA Dilmar  Rousseff , a lady  ,  but Lula  was jailed for corruption and he will  be more  sacrosanct  and prudent in this his second  coming ,  as lightning  should  not strike twice at the same spot ,  in this his second  coming .  Age  too is not on his side  and he should  not plan to spend his old  age in prison  as he  formerly   did after life at the top   as Brazil’s  president recently .

    The  US mid  term  elections usually  punish  the party of the ruling president for non performance . The rationale  is so that the incumbent  and  his party  should sit up and go all out to get reelected to power   in the next   presidential election  , or else turn  out to be  just  a single term presidency . The  Biden presidency  has foreseen what is in stock for it . Or  how does  one explain an American  president like Joe  Biden saying the a vote for the opposition party is a  vote against  democracy ? Usually  the economy  determines voting attitude and pattern in US . That  gave rise to the slogan  telling anyone who does not know this ,  that  ‘it is the economy , stupid ‘.  Inflation at   present   is  at  an  all time high in the US and fuel  prices   have soared  making it  difficult  for Americans  regardless  of color or party  affiliation  to  make  ends meet  . In pursuit of climate change campaign promises to  cut off fossil fuel to cool the climate  , the US under  Biden   is  literally  closing its oil  industry while asking Saudi  Arabia  to  pump more oil with OPEC . Which  the Saudis  have  rightly  refused  and  the  US has   meanwhile   locked up its oil  reserves while blaming Russia’s    invasion of Ukraine  and the diversion of its oil against  Russia’s  enemies  as the cause of global  and American high  inflation and high  domestic oil prices .

    If  the US electorate holds the Biden Administration responsible for its economic  woes  and suffering then  the Democrats will  lose control of both the senate and the House in this mid term election . If  that happens then the Republican  would be back to the Trump era when they controlled  both Houses and  even  the judiciary .If  those in the Republican Party contesting  , who queried the integrity of  the 2020 presidential election , win and get a majority,  then  a predictable saga of vendetta would be unleashed against  the Democrats. Especially the president’s  son Hunter that media  like the CNN have  been protecting  over allegations of using his father’s  offices to get  contracts even from questionable  overseas  Chinese contacts and businesses .

    Again , if most  of those contesting as Republicans  ,who were endorsed by former President Donald Trump  ,  win this mid term election  as governors and legislators  ,    then the coast  is clear  for Trump to  make a triumphant return to seek election as the presidential candidate of the Republican Party in the 2024 US presidential  election . If  that happens  I think  even Joe Biden will  be  hesitant  ,  and his  party  more so indeed , to ask him  to run for a second term  . It  may  then  be time for the Democrats to  seek  fresh  hands and blood as the current US VP   Kamalla Harris is  very  much  bird of the same feather  with  her  boss in terms of  poor  political  leadership   and acumen and both  will be easy  meat  and prey  for Trump  to  devour easily as his opponents for the US presidency in the 2024 US presidential elections . The  omens favor the return of Donald Trump for  now .

     

  • Culture, colonialism and change

    Culture, colonialism and change

    Nothing  illustrates the good face of multicultural Britain and its colonial past better than the emergence of Rishi Sunak  ,  a British  Indian  ,   to use his description of himself  ,  as the new British PM asked by Prince Charles to form the next government in Britain this week . It  is no exaggeration to say that the occasion can be compared to when the last British governor of Nigeria Sir James Robertson swore in Alhaji Abubakar Balewa as Nigeria’s first PM at  Independence on October 1 1960 . Today  we look at the good , the bad and ugly   side    of colonialism  .We  will  compare this  with  the grim  request   in some quarters that former  colonial  masters should  pay  reparations when even after many years of independence some citizens of many independent nations in Africa think they were better off under the colonialists  We    take a peep  at  tomorrow’s   presidential election in Brazil  where a sitting president  and former Military  captain   Jair  Bosonaro    is  contesting against   the  former president  and seasoned trade unionist  Lula  . We  will also  ruminate  over the emergence of a woman PM in Italy just as another woman PM in  multicultural  Britain  recently  vamoosed into thin air in the shortest tenure ever for a PM in  the same Britain .

    It  is necessary  to look at history    to  examine how both Nigeria and Britain got independence to appreciate the comparison of the emergence of Rishi Sunak as PM in Britain in 2022 and Balewa as Nigeria’s first PM in 1960 . India  got its Independence in a bloody  war in 1948  when  the British  colonial  masters created a division in Indian leadership up to Independence resulting the break up of India to Pakistan and India at independence . This led to bloody fighting between Hindus  and  Muslims as people fled in opposite directions to avoid being killed and thousands perished in the process .

    In stark  contrast,  Nigeria got its independence peacefully   and on a platter  of gold  in 1960  but  a military   coup in 1966  got Balewa  ,  the man with the golden voice and a school teacher at independence ,  killed and this truncated Nigeria’s democracy .  That   military  intervention has left indelible marks in the sands of time in terms  of Nigeria’s evolving and emergent  political culture and is very  much  at play in the  nature of the leadership in power and those  contesting for political  power in the on going 2023 presidential campaigns and elections .

    Tomorrow’s  presidential  election in Brazil is  quite  interesting and  has  some semblance to Nigeria’s  election with a whiff  of Donald Trump’s  claims  on election integrity in the 2020 US presidential elections . Trump brought American politics  to the level  of that of Nigeria where  rigging by parties is the vogue   rather than the exception .   It  is feared that Bosonaro  will not accept  the election if he loses in Brazil  as he has criticized the electronic voting system in Brazil stridently  in the campaigns .His  opponent Lula was jailed for corruption after leading Brazil  for two terms but has been cleared for reelection by a ruling of the Brazilian Supreme Court just  before the campaigns started . Lula  raised many Brazilians from poverty  in his two terms as president and his socialist  policies make him popular though his opponents think  that Brazil  can not afford them now . It will  be a sweet  victory and return to power for  Lula if  he wins and a sour  departure for Bosonaro if he loses  and one can only wish Brazilians well in either choice . 

    In  Italy’s case of a first  woman  PM ,Giorgina Meloni ,who  becomes the 67th PM in 78 years in Italy’s  turbulent politics , the  wonder is that she is believed  to be an  extremist  or far  right  populist  who seemed to have empathy in the past for Italian  dictator Benito Mussolini who fought with Hitler against the Allies in WW2  .   This is considered   a taboo   in Italian  politics . She has   however  denied this and her party Brothers of Italy won despite this and  she is leading a coalition   government  ruling Italy  right  now . Meloni  belongs to  a new group of leaders who  are deemed populists in  some EU nations    but have won elections in Europe   recently  ,  unlike  in the past   .Experts have defined such  leaders  as those   who  are anti  establishment  like  Donald Trump  in the US . Such  leaders associate  with the masses against  a perceived elite in the political  system . They  were branded xenophobic until  recently  when  it seems majorities are accepting  their views opposing illegal immigration and respect  for the family and resent  of gay rights . That  is the policy Meloni is supposed to put in force in her new assignment as Italy’s PM and  the world  is watching as she proves that what a man  can do a woman can do  . Which    somehow was a task  that  proved intractable  for Liz Truss in Great Britain quite  recently .

    The  good side of British  colonialism is that Rishi Sunak  is a well  groomed politician for PM . He has promised to rule with humility  , integrity and accountability . These are virtues that , publicly , his last two predecessors lacked .Boris Johnson  was very arrogant about the mandate the Tories had in the  last elections that swept them to power . Liz Truss promised to ‘ govern’ as a conservative . Sunak  has a degree in Politics Philosophy and Economics just like I did at UNIFE in 1974 . Sunak  has been Chancellor before and set the ball rolling for Boris Johnson’s fall when he was the first to resign in the cabinet paving the way for Johnson’s resignation . Boris wanted to return but this time he saw the handwriting on the wall and knew that Sunak  was an idea whose time  has come ,  and which   no one can stop  as PM and he withdrew from the come back  he boasted  so much    about on his exit  as PM . Now  the UK  has a Mayor of London and a PM who  are both British Asians and  that  means that the chicken has come home to roost   indeed   for British  colonialism   ,  in spite  of the bloody  independence of both Pakistan and India  from Britain in 1948 .

    With  regard to Nigeria it is apparent that the major  contestants in the 2023 presidential elections are bona fide businessmen and have no military  past  but the terrain  for power  has been  structured by the military in government during military   interventions . The outgoing president has been a military ruler  before . So was OBJ  and both  served two  terms as civilian  presidents .But  the Nigerian politics has been monetized expensively  by former military  governors and administrators who  have an edge in terms of claim to power in any part of our democracy . That the two  leading politicians are men  of immense means is no accident  as   money  politics is the dominant  theme  in terms of political access to power and political  participation in  our  nation  . The game is really  on and both our colonial past and the emergent political culture of the   ever power thirsty North versus the perennially   power seeking  South ,   is very much  at play   before our very  eyes.

  • Leaders, experience and stability

    Leaders, experience and stability

    The  abrupt resignation    in the UK  of  Liz Truss  who was the last PM appointed by the Queen who died recently , caught many people by surprise . More  interesting   however was the cheerful  way she announced her resignation . Her  mood was not that of leader who has lost  power and her gait after the announcement did not betray any regret as she walked away  gingerly from the podium . To  me , at   first  ,  that  was a  sign that  in Britain the  political  culture is that power is not a do or die affair . On the other hand one can conclude from her resignation posture that she is resigned to the fact that  she could not  deliver  on her  mandate  as she admitted in   her resignation letter . One   could surmise  that     she  knew  she  was wearing shoes too big for her and she was saying with  her literally  nonchalant   or  resigned posture – good luck to bad rubbish .

    Which  in a way  is a form of pragmatism . I will call that the pragmatism of untested hands or leaders which  invariably breeds political uncertainty or instability . Indeed Liz Truss’  brief  residence at 10 Downing Street , as  PM  was a lesson in how experience matters in political leadership and how a dearth of it can  cost the polity its   stability and sense of direction . Right  now the British  political system  is in the throes of leadership  instability   and that   has prompted the French President Emanuel Macron to pray  very  loudly that Britain returns quickly to the path of political stability . Given the historical  rivalry between France and the UK  especially after Brexit   one cannot be too sure if the French president was being  sympathetic    publicly  while  praying   privately   that the British  political  leadership  should   stew in its own urine .

    Today  we do a comparative analysis of the leadership instability plight of the UK   with China which is a lesson in political  stability  whether you like communism , its ideology  or not  ; Nigeria ,  which is stable  in spite of its state of insecurity ; and Tunisia  ,  where the president is forcing the people to have a strong constitutional  president after the flurry of governments that come and go in elections which  have  created great  political  uncertainty since the Arab spring revolution of 2011 in N Africa and the Middle East .  Let  me stress at the  onset that in  China , Nigeria and Tunisia ,  the political  leaders are experienced , tested hands  unlike Liz Truss but how their experience has translated into political stability that seems to be eluding the UK is the focus of our attention and comparative political  analysis here .

    China’ President Xi Jinping  came to  power in 2012 and  is planning to be confirmed as president for life by the Chinese Communist party which  runs China in such  a way that the party is present in all aspects of Chinese society . According to an analyst ‘XI Jinping sits on top of the party , the party sits on top of China and China sits  on top of the world That’s  basically the program .’That China sits on top of the world is not correct for the simple fact that the US will not allow it because of its brand of democracy which  does  not see China’ s ideology of communism as democratic . Yet  China has had flawless elections while election integrity is taking a bashing in the US where Donald Trump  is claiming that the 2020  election won by Joe Biden was rigged . That is the stuff  of  political  instability and the US is  reeling like a punch drunk  boxer from that even as it goes to  a do or die mid terms election in November in which power is expected to change hands . China  does not also sit on top of the world because the US will  not allow it to annex Taiwan  as it wants and is  China   is fast learning a lot from the  botched Russian invasion of Ukraine . And Russia is China’s  most visible and reliable ally  in today’s diplomacy and international  relations .Indeed China’s  political  stability  is the  envy of the west even though  like proverbial ostrich that has its buried in the sand  , the west thinks its  brand of liberal democracy  that is proud of its recognition of  gay rights   and same sex    marriage , which both Russia and China detest  , is the real  global democracy . A very  real fallacy  indeed  especially in terms of   its    potential   to    threaten  political stability .

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    As  regards Nigeria  ,  the current president   President Muhammadu Buhari  has been in power for almost two terms of four  year’s each with his party  the APC and the nation   has started campaigns to elect a new president in 2023 . Nigeria has been a stable political system and the president is a well tested politician   who has ruled militarily before being elected democratically  as president . In  fact his reputation for discipline  and integrity made the electorate to  bring him  back  as president in 2015 .Yet  there is grave insecurity in the land especially  in the North where he comes from . One expected his reputation as a successful  military  commander to deter terrorists , kidnappers and armed Fulani herdsmen  ravaging the nation especially with the Boko Haram menace in the North East which  unfortunately  is surviving the Buhari tenure of office . It  is now left  to his successor  and the  eventual  victor in the 2023  presidential election  to solve the nagging problem of insecurity in the middle of political  stability .Obviously in the Buhari  era political  stability co existed  with insecurity and one  can safely  say they  are  mutually  exclusive in our peculiar political  system .

    In  Tunisia  the President  Kais Saied  has dismissed   the government  of  Hichem  Mechichi , and     suspended the legislature .He  organized a constitutional  referendum in July  this year and parliamentary elections are due in December this year . What  the  Tunisian president  is aiming for is a strong government that  can deal with protesters with the force  of  the rule of law but he is finding stiff resistance  from  the opposition even though he seems  to be having his way . In a way he is a tested hand  but democracy needs consensus     and tolerance and he seems   to have lost both and Tunisia  is very well speedily on the high way to political instability  , even though an experienced  leader  is in control  for now .

    Again  with Nigeria  it is apparent that old and tested  hands are  on parade  as  presidential  candidates for the 2023 presidential  elections . The  PDP presidential candidate Abubakar Atiku was a former Vice President of the Republic but   he  has run into trouble by saying to a political caucus in the North that he thinks  they should  vote for him  because    he is a Northerner  a  situation that  belittles the people of Nigeria’s  south  who are more populous than the arid North which the census repeatedly says is more populous than the south . If  you remember the ‘ born  to rule ‘ saying credited to late prominent Northern leader Maitama Sule  from Kano  you will see that Atiku has a lot of explaining to do to carry  the southern votes  along in  this  coming 2023 presidential election .

    His major  opponent  from the APC the party in power since 2015  is  former   Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu  ,  the Jagaban  who is the leading candidate in the election . He too is a tested hand having been  governor of Nigeria’s commercial  capital state Lagos  state . He  has been  doing his best to sell  his Muslim Muslim  ticket  which I think  is based on merit and should be defended as such . However Atikus’ born to rule’  gaffe  should  be good campaign ammunition  for  the Jagaban  to insist he is a thoroughly detribalized Nigerian  who has built  bridges across the whole  of  Nigeria and his expected election in the 2023 presidential election  will  just be a matter of the sower reaping where  he has sown so massively and so  nationwide . That again  will  be a reward  for  experience and is a guarantee of stability that will this time deal ,  once and for all  ,  with our present intractable state of avoidable  insecurity  .   That is one  bright  prospect  worth  looking forward to ,  in this 2023 presidential election.

     

  • Honours, approbation and reprobation

    Honours, approbation and reprobation

    The   ceremony  to honour Nigerians who  have contributed to the growth and development of the Nigerian nation in all aspects of human   endeavour   has just  been done lavishly in the usual manner  by  the government  of the day . It  is difficult to expect all Nigerians to be totally  happy with all  the chosen people for the  simple reason  that the government of the day  must  have its own catchment area and  preferred  people who  must  be considered over and above all  others . That  is the politics of the awards ceremony and one needs to accept this clear fact to  have an open mind in congratulating the recipients no matter  how grudgingly because  that is the spirit  of the occasion  even as we wish  those  who miss out  or were forgotten this time around better  luck  next time when the government of the day  is that of their party , tribe or  kinsmen .

    Today we attempt  to look at such honours award objectively and as humanly  possible ,  devoid  of any extravagant  emotions  and affectations . That  really is a tall  order    but  it is  a task   worthy of the exercise  so  that we can learn  to appreciate  our  national   awards in the context of the political  culture  and  society   from which  the honours  are given to  the  recipients . We  must  remember that one  man’s  food  is another  man’s  poison and we must  not be in a hurry  to  approbate or  reprobate national   honours . At   least   in the pursuit  of objective  appraisal  of such honours   we must endeavor not to reprobate and approbate at the same time .  A  good example of this was the return of national  honours by some award recipients who  were angry  that they  were given the same awards  in the UK as the Beatles by the Queen . Any   way  the   responsibility for national  awards is that of the government of the day  and we   the   people  in a democracy   must  learn to live with  this fact  as the awards  , once given,  become  a’ fait  accompli  ‘ and no one can make them untenable .

    This  time however  we not only look at national awards but also  national  events and occasions  that nations celebrate and  use to show appreciation for services rendered by leaders and politicians   to  their environments , nations and societies .  In Nigeria past heads of states automatically  qualify  and are given the highest honour of Grand Commander Order of the Niger . There is no distinction between those elected into office and those who seized power through military intervention . You  can compare this with the fantastic funeral the British gave their Queen after a reign of 70  years   . Yet  Britain is a Parliamentary  democracy in which  elected party politicians govern and give  the Queen a list  of people to be honoured in what  is called the  Queen’s Honours  list and not a list of the government of the day which nevertheless  wields   raw  political  power to govern Monarchical Britain .

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    I  want  to compare the way the Queen  was appreciated as a leader   with  approbation   for her   with the way some Japanese protested against  the state  funeral of the Japanese assassinated  former PM  Shinzo  Abe  . It  is my intention  to use  these different reactions  to show again  that one man’s  food is another man’s  business . We  shall  compare this with the  situation in Nigeria and leave the reader to his or her conclusions  on the entire acceptability or otherwise of the last list of Nigerians  who receive national  awards .

    You  have  to look back at the Nigerian  civil  war to know that those clamoring for secession  in the east can  not expect to be on national  awards  list  . Similarly  those creating  unrest and their leaders  , against the Nigerian state cannot  be honoured . These include kidnappers , armed Fulani herdsmen ,marauders and those killing Nigerians in many parts of the North  , especially . Such  people  certainly  should never be on the honors list of any sane Nigerian government of the day and I am  sure that was the spirit of the awards given to all Nigerians in all aspects of life .This  respect for our national  security and the hatred of the government  for those disturbing the peace of our nation is what I want to commend in the last list of those given these Nigerian honours in this last exercise . It  cannot  and should not be otherwise and I commend the government  for maintaining the integrity of these  national  awards .

    Let  us  now examine the reasons for the Japanese protests at the  state funeral of Shinzo  Abe a two  time  PM who  was also its nation’s longest serving PM . You  have to remember that Japan  fought on the side of Hitler’s  Germany and lost World War 11 [  1939 -1945 ] to the Allies led by the US, Britain and Russia .As  a result  of the detonation of the atomic bombs on two Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki,  the Japanese  became a  pacific nation  and  that was reflected in their post  WW2 constitution . Shinzo  Abe as PM complied with this constitution but was aware that China  was arming with a view to dominating its contiguous environment and could subdue Japan if war broke out  given  the anti war and pacific nature of Japan’s  constitution . Abe was accused of tinkering with this pacific constitution and the protesters were against  this as they  do not ever want to experience the atomic   bomb   tragedies  of Hiroshima and  Nagasaki ever  again in their life time .

    Abe’s  assassin  said  he killed   him because he belonged to a church  that had treated the assasin’s mother poorly and   shot  him with a home made gun while Abe  was campaigning  for a candidate of his party in a  local election outside the capital Tokyo .  Abe’s brand of economics was called Abenomics and he brought Japan into proactive and beneficial trade  partnerships  and diplomatic relationships in the Asia Pacific region.  But  he could not   bear   to fold his arms and watch China  dominate his part of the world and acted strongly and in terms  strategies to make sure Japan does  not become a sitting duck in terms of security if war  should break out in their area . That  was the grudge of the protesters at his state funeral ,  although    they   were  a minority  . He however has  my admiration  for  doing his best to prepare his nation militarily for war both  domestic   and foreign  . That  was   what    informed the state funeral  which  was a great  honor even though he was out of office  It was an honor well  deserved as security any where in the world including Nigeria  should  be the main occupation of any government worth its salt  .  That  state funeral  was like our national awards   last  week  in which  those who kill and maim our people  cannot ever expect  to be partakers or beneficiaries in any way .

  • Values, diplomacy and conflicts

    Values, diplomacy and conflicts

    If  you remember how colonialists bastardised and disgraced  polygamy and traditional religions  as  un civilised   in colonial times ,  then you are on track to guess my  frame of mind today in treating the above topic .’ Tempus fugit ‘ is a Latin expression that means – time  flies . But  really   time is never static and that reminds me of a quotation on time that I love very much . It  says  ‘ Time  you old gypsy man, will  you not stay  , put up you caravan just for  one day ‘ .  That  precisely is  the issue today .

    From  the relative civilization of colonial  times and the emergence of independent nations in Africa and Asia we have now  reached a stage in which  a doctor in the US can tell a Congressional   hearing in the US that  a  man  can become   pregnant while the law maker questioning him , in correct and absolute control  of his senses and sanity  ,  told  him that only a woman with  her chromosomes can  become pregnant and  never  a man  . This  amazing disclosure of a doctor , a specialist  on gender manipulation ,is a new trend of American politics in the present Biden Administration and the fear of its polluting  the civilized world given  the pervasive economic , military , diplomatic might of the US is already  creating  tension , anxiety and deep concern in International  relations and diplomacy . This   is definitely   brewing an  indignant  suspicion and   mistrust  in global   diplomacy  of this US government and its agencies   on the   seemingly     innocuous WOKE culture  of diversity , inclusion and  equity  that they have unleashed on their  polity with the attendant danger of exporting it to an unwary  but far more civilized world in the  guise of  promoting  human rights and new  global  values .

    In  the civilized world  as we know it today human values  and  culture   remain largely  the same  . The  laws of any society are based on its tradition and customs and it is agreed that no one  culture should  be deemed as inferior to another  , as that would amount  to ethnocentrism . Even  though the morals amongst nations differ    from  those  amongst  individuals, it is   mostly   allowed that in International Relations there  are no permanent friends or enemies but permanent interests .Human values of sanity honesty ,integrity ,  tolerance ,  accommodation  ,  loyalty and accountability are accepted mode of life in any   society in a civilized world . In  most parts of the world the family is the basic unit of society and marriage is between a man and  woman and that is why one should raise an alarm when  those promoting gender equality in the US go far  enough to say a man can get  pregnant in their new civilization ,

    Let  me now illustrate  how new American values on sex and family are  creating tension , anxiety and insecurity in global  economy and politics . Taiwan which  has legalized same sex marriage and is supported by the US has threatened  that any violation of its air space   by   China   which  once limited Chinese  families to one child , will  be treated as first  attack worthy  of a retaliation . OPEC nations  have  decided to reduce oil production at a time when  the EU and US  face energy crises because of the planned   and   agreed closure of the oil industry   consequent on f global  warming arising  from the use of fossil fuel  to  power their  rich  economies which  were developed by the same oil  products  in the first instance . I will  deal with these Taiwan /China  issues as  examples of  changing  morals amongst  nations . I will  however  use  Nigerian   domestic  politics   as examples of  human   values , especially    now that we are on the eve of our 2023 presidential and general  elections    . We  however  look at   the moral  values of nations first .

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    OPEC is led by Saudi Arabia which   is the leading Sunni Islamic   nation of the world and a nation to which pilgrims of   even the  rival Shiites led by Iran  make pilgrimage as demanded by the religion . Same sex  marriage is an anathema in Islam  and there is no doubt the Saudis and most OPEC  nations resent this . Anything that would  deter the EU and US from pursuing these  values that violate their religion and custom is palatable to OPEC and Co led by Saudi Arabia . The  OPEC  nations know they all  have human rights issues with the west  and this is their own way of showing resentment against their constant castigation against human rights violations by nations that say   marriage is not only between a man and a woman but between same sex also . It  is a good  example of the saying in a favourite book of mine that says ‘play  me foul  and I play you  tricky ‘

    In  2019 Taiwan legalized same sex marriage and there is no denying US and EU pressure on this . Taiwan is beholden to these nations for its survival against China which  regards Taiwan as only an unrecognized break away nation from it . Even though Taiwan is intrinsically Chinese and has values like its China’s  kinsmen ,  it is not in Taiwan’s interest  to antagonize the values of nations which protect it against China’s  persistent and dangerous  threats to annex Taiwan by force .  The  Biden Administration   has shown clearly  that it would  defend Taiwan against  any attack by China but American  governments have a   way of backing down when it comes to  implementing that promise . Especially Democrats governments like Obama’s and Biden’s  which  fled and abandoned Afghanistan  so ingloriously   recently . Taiwan should  be extremely  cautious in this regard .

    In Nigeria’s  presidential politics the issues are about  the   morals of honesty  , trust and loyalty ,  in the most important problems of the two major parties   namely  the PDP and  the  APC and they  are related to the parties ‘ primaries and other intra party matters .  In  the APC ,  the Chairman is having a credibility problem  with the party’s flag bearer  the Jagaban and the reason  is not far fetched . There is a cliché that  says once bitten quite shy . The Chairman  recently  complained of not having the appropriate role in getting the party’s presidential campaign off the ground as it has just done . This was the same Chairman   who  falsely  said that the president has endorsed a different candidate other than the Jagaban   on the  eve  of the primaries .The saving grace for the party’s eventual  candidate was his ‘ Emi Lokan  ‘  outburst in indignation and the  moral  courage of the president to rebuff the false claim of the same Chairman  now calling for inclusion when he was disloyal and dishonest with his pre primary announcement on the president’s choice of presidential  aspirant  .Surely  this Chairman  cannot eat his cake  and  still  have it on trust and integrity on this campaign .

    In  the case of the PDP the   recent overture of the party’s  leaders to bring the River’s State Governor Wike back  to support  the elected presidential candidate Atiku  who won the primaries by defeating Wike  has again failed .Wike  has claimed he had a raw  deal with the Chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees who he claimed received bribe from the winner and should be removed . The issue is one of moral trust , and integrity as well   as  loyalty . Wike feels he has been betrayed by a party he has done so much for . Even  some of the party leaders he rebuffed in the last visit to him in Port Harcourt agreed that his success with infrastructure in his state will  be a selling point  for the party in the presidential election . How  the party can  pacify the River’s  state governor’s  sense of betrayal and injustice is going to determine  how far the PDP can  go in the 2023 elections, if it has not already shot itself in the leg fatally already with this Wike imbroglio .

  • Elections, women and politics

    Elections, women and politics

    As  the  2023  presidential   election campaigns took   off in Nigeria   this week ,  it is time to focus on issues to be discussed as well as the political  actors on the national stage competing for power . This cannot be done in a vacuum  or in isolation because Nigeria as a nation ,  is a very important sovereign citizen of the international community or the comity of nations . A  comparative analysis is therefore  desirable to not only enjoy the topic or the discussion  ,but to help us have an insight into our fate   or future as a nation   after this 2023 presidential elections .

    Already  no less a person than our  own OBJ , a former head of state has played the role of ‘ a prophet of doom  ‘   as it were  ,and flew the kite that if religious leaders do not play their role well in preaching the truth ,  politicians will  destroy  the nation . That  is typical OBJ   . He  says  his mind and Abacha almost  killed him for that but he became president instead later  and governed for two  presidential terms of eight  years . Definitely  , from or by experience  , he knows what he is saying and Nigerians should listen because dismissing him as shouting wolf when there is none  will   amount to going to sleep in a thatched house when the roof is  on  fire . We  should  no wait to be accused  later of closing the stable  doors after the horses have bolted .

    In  other not to be hoodwinked or  bamboozled by election promises which  are the sweet  stuff of campaign  ,   especially   in Nigeria ,  we look at   two leaders on the world stage who are women  and who  have just won power to  govern in their  different political  systems . It is apparent that there is no woman in power in Nigeria but  that does not mean that Nigerian  women are in any way inferior to these  foreign  women . At  least Nigerian women  know they  are women and real  ones  at that  .   Well  educated ,  and  comparatively   brilliant  and  competitive  in all disciplines with women any where in the world .    Unlike  a US Supreme Court  woman   judge  candidate who was scared to define the word ‘ woman’ in the way we understand the word ,  in this our part of the world .

    We  take a look at the  two newest women PMs in  both Britain and Italy   as well  as European  and American  political  and cultural values  .  The  choice of the two nations is predicated on  their history  and their religious and political  pedigree as nations . Britain had an Empire and was a colonial  power which colonized Nigeria till 1960 when we became a Republic . Italy was the base of the Ancient Roman Empire which still fascinates politicians and scholars  till  now and is the origin of the Roman Catholic  Church  which ruled the civilized world at a time when the Church was the state . We  look at the emergence of these women leaders and compare the issues that brought them to power with those in Nigeria and of course the nations of the EU   as well  as the US  ,  with  which  the nations mentioned here have a close  relationship if not affinity .

    Read Also; Leadership, culture and democracy

    In  Britain Liz Truss succeeded Boris Johnson as PM and was the last Minister the Queen received as PM before her demise and fantastic funeral . Giogia Melone became the PM of Italy this week when her Party Brothers of Italy won  the largest chunk of votes to form a coalition in which Melone is expected to be Italy’s  first woman PM . The two  women  have some thing in common . They  are  both conservatives . In European terms that means they  are pro family ,church and are against  abortion , migration and are anti Islam  because of terrorism and its importation without integration into Europe . Consequent  upon Brexit , Britain is outside of EU  control but the values of these two  conservative women that brought them to power conflict  with what the EU has stated as European values . These  EU  values   are pro –immigration , pro abortion , promotion and respect for LGBTQ rights and the right of individuals to determine their sex and gendre . Even  the words man , he , woman , and she are about to be eliminated in their vocabulary to be replaced by gender neutral terms  in   the  EU  and  American lexicon  under  the present US  government   and in majority  of EU  nations  .That  explained why the US Supreme Court judge was unable to define a woman  or call herself one . Meloni  especially has been  demonized as extremist and a danger to the LGBTQ community in Italy but she is in power and   is  expected to move Italy in the direction  of her campaign promises . That  should please  her  supporters immensely and should  pain those campaigning  for same sex marriage and LGBTQ  rights which  incidentally includes the Catholic Church based in the Basilica in Rome Italy  and is led by Pope  Francis  from Argentina which  recently  legalized same sex marriage .

    In  Nigeria which started its  presidential   campaigns this week   all   these  issues  are not  political   issues . The issues are different . The  presidential  candidate of the PDP set  the ball  rolling when he said at his campaign launch that the Buhari government  has failed , that Nigeria is in  confusion  and that our federalism is suspect and not genuine  .  That  is the tip  of the iceberg . The  issues of insecurity , mass migration from North to South ,kidnapping , armed Fulani herdsmen terrorism , Boko  Haram terrorism and the insurgency in the East ,  are issues that any presidential contestant must  offer credible  solutions to be able  to win power and rule Nigeria after the 2023 presidential elections .Nevertheless,  the PDP candidate has a credibility obstacle  to overcome ,  having been in power as VP before and was an active political  supporter of the PDP government of the Jonathan Administration that was  accused of the same  inadequacies he has laid  at the doorstep of the Buhari Administartion . Surely the saying is apt here  that those who live in glass houses should  not throw stones or they will  be ridiculed as the pot calling the kettle black . Nigerians are wiser this  time around .

    On  another note the election of Giorgia Meloni  in  Italy showed  that in politics especially at  election time , culture  matters . That  observation is applicable to politics anywhere in the world and not only Italy but including Nigeria . Meloni   and    her coalition partners were regarded as homophobic and  promoters of hatred against strangers and they lost elections one after the other . At the end  of the day the elections  showed  the  main dictum of democracy and that is that the minority   must have its say but the majority must  have its way , no matter how long that is . In  modern politics  Italy’s election of its first woman PM has  shown that nobody except  the electorate at election time can stop an idea, whose time has come .I  presume the Nigeria electorate has taken judicious note  of that  as the  camapaigns  now begin .