The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Fighting corruption- guilt, politics and deterrence

    While  it is  apparent  that in   global   democracies, elected representatives gain power  at  the ballot box, that responsibility  also   confers  or  imposes  on  them the need  to play  by  the rules or  the  law  of  the land  or  nation in  enjoying  that power. Misuse or abuse  of that power is political corruption at  first and corruption in  stark terms as  a cancer  that can cripple any economy  and its  governing institutions   in the final    analysis. In  the book , ‘Culture  Matters,‘the argument  was made that while the culture of a society influences its morals and values,  it is  the political  system that drives the overall  effort  to  tackle corruption and create  human progress  and  development. Culture   or  morals  may  therefore very  well  matter,  but it is  government  that  creates  the enabling environment for  compliance  with  the rules  of  the game  by  powerful  political  participants  and those in control  of government  and its institutions in  any  polity.

    In  Western  European  nations  and  the US, the two  centers driving global  democracy as the major  ideology of   world  governance, observance  of  human  rights  have  developed  and grown  to  such an extent  that  human  rights  now takes   precedent,  over  even  state  security.  A good  example  is in  France where  a law on what  women  should  wear  to swim and  their right to do so   took  precedence  over  security  concerns because  of  the religion  of a certain  sector  of  society from  among  whom   terrorists seem  to  have   sprung from  in  recent  times. Yet,  the duty of a state or any  government is to protect the lives and property of its  citizens while  guaranteeing   their  right  of  freedom  in a secular  state.  Similarly,  Europe   and especially  France, was   mainly  Christian  before  colonisation  and globalisation  which  brought  in a Muslim  population  that is now  the largest in the EU  and  it  is  from  the ranks of the Muslim  population that the jihadists that  have been recruited  as Islamic  militants that  have made  terrorism  a nightmare  for  the French  people have sprung  from .  According to  French  President, Francois  Hollande,  France  will  never  give in to terrorists nor  compromise its  way  of  life to suit French  citizens who  want  to  impose  Sharia in the mode  of  bloody  terrorism  of  the Islamic  State killing French  citizens  in blatant  acts of  terrorism  in  French  cities.  That    really is the duty of any  democratic  government.  For  terrorism  is a form  of  military  corruption that  must  be put  down  by  the state at all costs and in all  places. Such  military corruption  can  only  be   matched  by the emergence of an enemy  within   a  state  such as the one that  emerged  from Nigeria  where it  was revealed  that military  officers sold arms  to  Boko  Haram, the  Nigerian surrogate  of Islamic  state.  This is an odious  act of corruption equal in magnitude to  the  funds  diversion  scam   involving  the office of the Director  of  State  Security  in which  funds  meant  for arms  to  fight   Boko  Haram  were collected  or  given  out  to  cronies  of  the Jonathan  administration    to  campaign  for its reelection  in  the 2015  presidential  elections. More  on  this later.

    Today,  however,  we  look  at  events   around global  corruption  and  the fight  against  it in  some countries   this week.  We  examine  the context of corruption, the proof  or onus  of  guilt,  as well  as  the  manner of its admission  or  denial. We  also  examine  how  the law  has fared  in its application  and  how   the  issue  of  deterrence  is resolved. This  is  because  deterrence is the ultimate objective  of any fight  against  corruption  in any  political  system.  It  is the duty  of  government  in  fighting  corruption to make an example of  those who  flout  the rules  of  governance   or loot  the public treasury  in  the performance  of their public  or state  functions.  This  means the penalty  for the offence must be such that  should deter real or  potential  offenders from  taking that course  of  action  again or if  ever.

    On  that premise  we look at Brazil where President Dilmar  Roussef  was  charged  with  corruption, suspended  from  office for six months and finally  tried  in the  Brazilian  Senate. There, two thirds of  senators voted for  her impeachment and she was  removed  from  office and  the  Vice President  sworn as her replacement .We  look  at the  US  where Donald  Trump went  to  Mexico  after  calling Mexicans rapists  and drug  users and  the case for  libel  brought by his wife  Melanie against  a blogger and the UK  Daily  Mail  for calling  her a sex  worker  before  marrying her  husband.

    We  take  a  look  at  Nigeria where  huge amounts  have  been  seized  from  treasury looters who  have not  been named  and  the statement  credited to a military  general in  the frontline in  the  North  East  where the  Army   is fighting Boko  Haram  that  those army  officers  who  sold  arms to  Boko Haram  are  being  tried  by the  military. As well as the statement by  the general that  he did not know when  Boko Haram will  be defeated  as insurgency   could end  today, 10  years  or 25  years.

    Obviously  we have enough  food  for thought today  and we can  now start a sequential  analysis  of  these  events. We  go  back  to  Brazil  where  the president  was removed by  impeachment  in  the Senate  and  she called  it  the nearest  thing  to a coup. But  that is not  the issue.  It  was her  defence  that was revealing.  She  did  not  refute  the charges of  padding the budget to show  that it was performing well to get reelected in  2014  for a second time. All  she said  in defence  was that  previous  governments in Brazil  have done  so and  hers  cannot  be an exemption. That  makes her roundly  guilty  in  my books  in  spite  of  all  her  achievements  in  lifting millions  of  Brazilians out  of  poverty. Her     impeachment  is   therefore   well  deserved.

    To  say  she lost  to  forces  of  anti-corruption she unleashed is  poor  defence if  she too   broke the rules  of  budgeting like her predecessors.   In  law,   those   who  come  to equity    must   come with  clean   hands   and   like   Caesar’s  wife,  this   Brazilian  president,  an   accomplished     Economist     a lady   at  that,   should    have     been  above    reproach  on  such    matters.  Her  impeachment  provides  a good  lesson  for those  handling the  budget   padding accusations in  Nigeria’s  House  of Representatives   where  at last it has been  reported that the anti-corruption  outfit headed by Professor Itse Sagay  has met  with the  main  accuser  of  the Speaker in spite  of earlier  reports  that  claimed  that the Speaker noted  that  padding was  not an  offence  and  the presidency had  agreed with  that.  The  accusations  by  the  accuser  of  the leadership of the House were  so  detailed as he was an insider  as former  Appropriations  Committee Chairman, that   they  can  never  be ignored by  any  government fighting  corruption  like the Buhari  administration. We  therefore  keep  our  fingers crossed till  the results  of  the investigation are made  public.

    Next  we  look at  the Donald  Trump  visit and  wonder  why  it  took  place at all during the week.  Before  going to Mexico  the next  day  he  had reiterated all  the negative  things  he  said about deporting Mexicans   and building  a wall  to  block  out  Mexicans entering the US  illegally.  I  found  out  that  the visit  was  based on a tradition  of presidential  candidates of the  US visiting the  Mexican president  before elections as the two  nations are neighbours and Hillary  would  follow  suit  later. That  notwithstanding I expected  the Mexican president to have  refused to  see Trump because of the hostile  things he had said  about Mexico  and Mexicans in this US election  campaign  for  President. But  I also  found  out that if the Mexican  president  had  done this,  that  would  have  favoured Trump,  as Americans  especially  Republicans  don’t  like foreign  leaders  looking down  on their  candidates.  Which  shows  clearly  that again Trump  had  gotten  away  with  murder on  the  Mexican visit  where you  could say  he bearded  the Mexican  lion  in its  den.

    The  same  cannot   however  be said about   the   $150m   libel  suit  brought  by his wife against the Daily  Mirror and a blogger  for  defaming  her by calling  her  a sex  worker  because the wife  has  really  been  maligned. This week  the Daily  Mail  and the blogger  recanted which  means they  published falsehood. Which  makes them  liable unless  of course they apologise  or  offer  to  settle  out  of  court.  Which  is  a good lesson    for  those  who  see  nothing good  in  anything associated  with  the  Republican  presidential  candidate including  his wife .  No  news  media  has  a duty  to  publish  news  without crosschecking the    facts in   spite of the advent  of    the pervasive      and ubiquitous  social  media which  is bound to  have  problems    given  that this is its notorious modus  operandus.   This  is  simply  not  fair to the victims of  such  unverified and untrue   stories  and  the  editors  of  the well  respected  Daily  Mail  of  the UK   should  have known  and done  better  investigative  reporting,  even  on  the wife  of an hated  presidential  candidate   like  Donald  Trump.

    Now  the chicken  can come home  to roost with  Nigeria  and  here I  will  simply  make some  postulations. On  non publication of  the names of  looters  who  have returned  stolen  funds I  totally  disagree. Return of stolen  funds is an  admission  of  guilt  and publication of  such names  casts  immediate  opprobrium and  stigma  on those  involved and  that creates  a very  hurtful  deterrence  which  I said  is  the goal  of any  fight against corruption. To  say the rule  of  law  is breached  by  such  name publication  is sheer  fallacy. Where  was the rule  of  law  when  the offence  was  committed and  the decision  to  return  stolen  funds  made?  If  people who return  stolen  funds  sue for libel, the best  they  can  get  is  a contemptuous  award  for  one  kobo  as in Leon  Uris  best  seller QB V11.  As  they  cannot  get  redress  for  a reputation they  don’t  have or  have inadvertently destroyed by   admitting   and  returning  stolen  money.

    Lastly,  the Nigerian  army must  publish  the names of  officers  on trial  for selling  arms   to  Boko  Haram and  if  found  guilty  of  such  treason  maximum  punishment  must  be meted out.  The same goes  for military  officers  who  converted war  funds  to  their private  use  in building hotels and hospitals  and malls  for  their  sons. In  addition,  the  army  must  crush  Boko  Haram  now as  the general  first  said, not  in  10 or  25  years as he later  added  so  that the army  does  not suffer front  fatigue  which  can  make victory over Boko  Haram    elusive.  Quite    like the mirage,  very  common  in   hot   sun   on  the long  highways  of  our Northern  cities,  especially  in the North  East.  Once  again, long  live  the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Religion, politics and racism

    My  initial  title  for this  write  up  was One  Bishop, One  Emir  and  One  Cardinal.  The simple  reason for  this  was  the enthronement of  a   new  Anglican  bishop  that I  attended  this  week  and the  speech delivered  at  the event  by a  well known  and respected Nigerian  Cardinal,  as well  as the well  publicized  admonition of the Emir  of  Kano to  the  Buhari  Administration  to  pull  its  weight  in  terms  of  the expectations   of  the  Nigerian   masses  for  a better  life. Such  a title  would   certainly  have  precluded  my  writing  on the   very  topical  but  attractive  2016  US  Presidential  elections and the  ever  unpredictable  antics  and utterances of the Republican  presidential  candidate, Donald  Trump. This  time however even  Donald  Trump overreached  himself with  the  taunt  he gave to  black  voters  in  telling them  that they have  nothing to lose in  voting  for  him  as their  US   president  as  their  lot has  never  been  better in  voting   for the  Democratic  Party in previous  US  elections. I  found  that particularly  provocative  and  racially  insolent,  hence  the change  of  title  and a mood that  is about  to  unfold   here  and now.

    Let  me  elucidate  by  stating  that  the enthronement  of  the  Bishop I attended was that of Bishop Akinpelu  Johnson  the  new  Bishop of the Anglican Mainland  Diocese   of  the  Nigerian  Anglican  Communion. He  was,  till  his   enthronement    this   week,  the  Provost  Of  Christ  Church, Marina,  Lagos, the  Church  that  I worship  in   regularly.  The  enthronement  was at the  Cathedral  of  St  Judes, Ebute  Metta,  Lagos, the  Church  in which  I was baptized  and confirmed before  my  migration  to  Marina about  20  years  ago. My  purpose in   writing  about  the enthronement   of  this bishop  is  because  of his service  in Christ  Church  Marina,  Lagos which  I believe  rightly  earned  him  the recognition  and promotion  of  the Anglican  Church   ecclesiastical  authorities,  who  made  him  bishop  and enthroned  him at  the Cathedral  of  St Jude’s  this  last week.

      To  me,  as an   Anglican,   Bishop Akinpelu Johnson can  safely and    boldly  say   – like    Julius   Caesar  said     of   England, –  in  his Bishop’s  Court       at   the  Cathedral    of  St   Jude’s,    that    of    Christ  Church  Cathedral  where  he  served  for  7  years,   ‘l    came,   l  saw   and   l  conquered.’ This  is  because   with  the clear   benefit   of  hindsight, and   as  Provost  of  the most  prestigious Anglican  Cathedral  in  Nigeria,  Akinpelu  Johnson left  his mark  in  the sands of  time in the beauty, ambience  and   aura of  spirituality with  which  he adorned a  Cathedral   where  his  father  had     served    before  meritoriously   for 25  years. This   former  Provost improved  the quality  of service and   congregational  participation  in  singing  of psalms,  hymns    and  songs  of  praise  that  made  Christ  Church   Marina, the leading  church  in  terms  of  church  worship  in  Nigeria.  He  refurbished,  renovated  and  revamped  the Christ  Church Marina literally  from  head to  toe.  From  the floors, the pews, the organ, the choir  and  chandeliers, this  ancient  Cathedral   was  transformed  into  a new glowing  edifice in  aesthetics  and  beauty  that  can  only  enhance and  uplift  spiritual  worship.  He  did   obviously   this because  he  had  a goal  as  someone raised in the Cathedral  and  quite  well  educated in  theology  like  a craftsman   who  knows  his  onions and  trade  like  the back  of  his hand.  He  ran  into many  difficulties in  achieving  his  objectives  but  he  was  focused  and  resilient. Today,   I say  boldly   to anyone trying  to  know what  he did  in  Christ  Church, Marina Lagos to go  to  that  ancient  citadel  of  Anglicanism    and  look  around. I  am  certain  that such  curious  people  will   remember   on  doing so  the    immortal  epitaph on the grave of  the great  Architect of St Paul’s  Cathedral  London,   Sir  Christopher  Wren,  whose  epitaph  reads  most  candidly –  If  you must  see his works, look  around  you. Such   is the  measure   of  my  appreciation  and  gratitude   to  this new  Bishop  who  has  lived   so  capably well  to his illustrious  pedigree  and   ancestry  in  Nigerian  Anglicanism.    I doff     my  heart    and say    thank   you  so  much Bishop Akinpelu  Johnson for  the spirit  and quality  of  worship  you  left  in the Cathedral   on  the Marina.   And  as you  always text  in  prayer  –  it will  be well  with you Sir.

    At  Bishop  Johnson’s Enthronement  a new  development  ensued  which  again showed important elements of  the fusion  of  politics,   tradition , history  and religion  in  our   Nigerian   environment.  That  was in  the presence of    Cardinal  Olubunmi  Anthony  Okogie , the  retired  Catholic  Archbishop  of  Lagos  at  the event.  The  Cardinal’s  presence  was well  appreciated  by the  congregation  and  when  it was  announced  that  he  would  speak  later,   people  were   in  suspense and     were    all  ears. As  usual  his  message  was blunt  and of  course,  political. He  upbraided  Nigerians  for  being  weak  in  calling  their leaders  to  order. He  admonished  the new bishop  not  to  betray  the trust reposed  in  his new  office  as that was the main  message of  his enthronement. My  impression was that  an  artist  in  liberation  theology  was  as usual   at  his best in  speaking out   against  oppression and  dictatorship at  any  time and remains unrepentant in that    age  long  pursuit. Even  though he is   now  bent   with  age and time. Again,  I felt  beholden  to  the Cardinal  for his well  known  disposition   in  standing up  for  the poor  and  downtrodden  in  Nigeria. More   so    in an  Anglican  Church  which   broke  from  the  Roman   Catholic  Church   and   founded     by  the  English  monarch   Henry VIII  because  the Pope  then   refused him  permission  to  divorce  his wife  at  that  time.

    From  Cardinal  Okogie’s speech  we proceed  to  another  admonition  to the Buhari  government by  the  Emir  of  Kano  Muhammadu  Sanusi,  the  former  Governor  of  the  Central  Bank of Nigeria. He  pointedly  said  that  lack  of provision  of  employment  to  about 80 million Nigerian  youths  by the present administration  has  made  terrorism  attractive  to them. The  Emir asked the government  to  retreat  from  its  failed  policies and turn a new leaf and stop blaming the last Jonathan Administration  for its  present  problems. He  lamented  that  an economy  in which anybody  can  make a billion  naira just with a phone call  and  without  any investment  was  bound  to  have problems. He  said  he would  not  be politically  correct in telling government  only  what it wants to  hear. Which  really  reminded  me of  Donald  Trump  in the US but   more on that  later.

    Let  me state  categorically however that the  Emir of Kano  is immensely  qualified  to  say  what he  has  said  and he has  said it very  correctly  and timeously. He  stands this  time  very ably,  and  shoulder  to  shoulder   with the Catholic  Cardinal Okogie mentioned earlier.  This  is  because as  Emir  of  Kano  Muhammadu  Sanusi is both the political and spiritual  leader  of  his people. Quite  appropriately  he spoke  in  Kano  at a planning  seminar and  that  too  has its own peculiar  significance  around  the personality  of  the Emir. Since  his  assumption of  office  as Emir  there have been  many  conferences in  Kano  on the economy, commerce, transportation  and  business  generally    and    he has not    only  received participants  and organisers  of such events   in audience  at  his famous palace,  he has   delivered    very  academic   and   educative  papers. Undoubtedly  as a student of history and with  a degree  in Islamic  studies  the  Emir  knows  and is   surely   reviving  the  historical  position  of  the metropolitan  city  of  Kano  in  the   ancient   Trans  Saharan Trade   and  is  repositioning     Kano    on  a similar  pedestal  in  the   context   of  contemporary    economic  development    in   Nigeria. Given  his back  ground  as a banker  and  economist,  he is eminently  qualified  to  advise  the  Buhari a Administration and I urge  government  to  heed  the candid  royal advise  and  move  in the  right direction as  soon  as  possible. This   is  because  Nigerians  know  their  leaders  as well as those credible  enough for  them  to  listen. The  Emir  of   Kano, like  the  Cardinal,  is  one of such Nigerian  leaders.

    Let  me now  round  up  with my  favorite  topic  in  recent times – the 2016  US  Presidential  elections  and of  course its prime mover in  terms verbal vitriol, Donald  Trump, the presidential candidate  of  the  Republican  candidate. Certainly  in  telling black Americans that it  cannot  be worse  for  them in  voting for  him he was being  nasty although I will  not say  as usual. But  this  time however,   in maligning the first black  president for  not helping his people enough he  insulted  a whole  race. I  do  not  see  any  decent  blacks  voting for him  unless  he  retracts the insult  and  apologises publicly. Even  the way he spoke about the poverty of the blacks and the poor state  of  black  schools leaves  a bad  taste  in  the  mouth.

    I  expect  his latest  convert Nigel Farage the  former UK  Independence  Party – UKIP –      leader   in  Britain  who  has crossed over to the US    from     the UK, to  help  Trump   campaign   on  the  platform  of  the Brexit  success  in  Britain,  to   offer him    frank  advice on the decent use  of  language in political  campaigns, no  matter  the disagreement   over  the  issues in any  campaign or   elections.  Although  some politicians   in  Britain  have  attacked Farage himself  whose   party  UKIP  is  Eurosceptic   and   right  wing,    for  claiming the Brexit  success dishonestly for  himself.   David   Cameron  lost   his premiership  position  on  Brexit   victory  and the Labor  Party is castigating its own  leader   Jeremy  Corbyn   for  not  campaigning  sufficiently for the Remain  campaign  in the  EU referendum  and  have plotted to  remove him in the coming Labor  leadership  elections. Which  also  means that Donald  Trump  who  supported Brexit  and  thinks Americans would  vote  for him   likewise    in  line  with   the anti establishment  Brexit    success  in  Britain,  really  believes  that  with  people  like Fagel  around  him  he  would win the  2016   US  Presidential   elections . No  matter  what  happens   however, till Donald      Trump apologises  to US  blacks,  he can  count  black  votes out in his quest for  the US presidency in  November  2016. If  he can still  win in spite of that, then  good luck  to  him and all  Americans. A  people, it is said, deserve the leaders  they get.  Once  again, long live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria .

  • Trump’s tantrums, Obama’s legacy and the rest of US

    At long last, Donald Trump the tempestuous Presidential candidate of the Republican Party in the 2016 US Presidential elections has thrown his hat in the ring in accepting the challenge his opponent Hillary Clinton’s strategy of campaigning for the office of the US president with the legacy of the two term Obama presidency. In a major policy speech this week the American billionaire drew his line in the sand for his opponents to dare to cross by asserting that the danger facing his nation for now is similar to that posed ideologically by the Soviet Union’s ideology of communism during the Cold War.

    This time however the ideological opponent to be faced with equal vigor and resolve by the US, according to the new war mongering political gospel of Donald Trump is Radical Islam, represented globally and notoriously by the terror group ISIS or Islamic State. Quite dramatically, the Republican Presidential candidate sought refuge in history to whip up sentiments of an unsafe America leading an equally insecure world.

    A world he portrayed as literally trembling at the sight of the forces of terror which he said could not be contained by the Obama Administration’s eight years in office. These he asserted are the destructive forces of terror which are likely to multiply and escalate under a Clinton Administration sworn to campaign on what he called the Obama Administration’s failed strategy in fighting global terrorism. Donald Trump’s critics have been quick to point out that the Republican candidate was silent on issues like the economy, NATO, Pacific Security and shifted grounds on his earlier promise to ban Muslims from entering the US and the promise to build a wall against the Mexicans.

    But such critics cannot deny that he has a plan and a strategy to protect the US against terrorism in a resurrected 1952 US Ideological policy to contain communism and adapting it to fight Radical Islam in 2016. In terms of finding a campaign ammunition against the Obama Legacy, Trump has not been innovative at all and did not have to invent the wheel. He has just been cunning in whipping up the specter of war, an ideological one for that matter , and to me this is just hard nosed political pragmatism but which strikes starkly at the soft underbelly of the Obama Legacy in the fight against global terrorism. In creating fear for Americans in their homeland and globally, in a world in which no one knows when and where ISIS would strike in Western Europe and the US, he has found a soft target to create an image of weakness and insecurity for the Obama legacy.

    This can only worsen with any subsequent act of terror, which the ISIS as a terror group is murderously committed to against the civilized world. Such a grim and bloody prospect of not only how but when terror will strike provides ready ammunition for the Trump campaign to run precariously on, as it runs out of ideas on the usual issues traditionally associated with US presidential elections such as the economy, foreign policy, education and social welfare. Effectively then, Trump has switched the issues and the campaign to suit his unusual candidacy, mannerisms and eccentricities. I therefore disagree totally with those analysts who say he has no campaign for the presidency because he has just adapted his nomination campaign for the presidential campaign and the two are different. To me his switch of issues to security and the fear of Radical Islam show that he knows where his strength and weaknesses lie hence his present strategy to mess up the Obama legacy at all costs.

    The ball is therefore firmly now in the court of Hillary and the Democratic Party to assert that Trump is wrong on his priorities and is indeed alarmist in terms of the fear and insecurity he has created and is creating in the minds of the US electorate three months to the 2016 presidential elections. The success or failure of the Democratic Party in this regard will determine whether or not Donald Trump will rise to the US presidency on the ashes of the Obama legacy on which Hillary is campaigning and to which Donald Trump is equally dedicated to reducing to tatters vehemently, especially with regard to foreign policy and global security.

    This then brings up the issue of how this 2016 US Presidential elections will affect the rest of the world. Of course there will be need to categorise on who the rest of us are, or who should be in this exercise. Certainly some people, race and religion already vilified by Trump in this campaign, can never wish him well in the elections. These certainly include majority of Muslims who think their religion is one of peace and who are annoyed by his intention to ban Muslims from entering the US and his new strategy of vetting new and existing US Muslims ideologically on American values and Sharia law before entering the US. The same applies to Mexicans on the wall and NATO nations who have not paid their dues and Pacific nations like Japan and S Korea which Trump said are rich enough to fund their nuclear and defence needs and do not need US funds in this regard.

    This then leaves us with nations we shall speak of randomly on this the Rest of Us team. Strong nations like Russia and China and big African nations like Egypt, Nigeria and S Africa. We shall leave out Asian nations like Pakistan and India who have deep military and nuclear deals with the Americans and have no choice but to deal with whoever emerges as the next US president. Similarly it will be unwise to include nations which form the tragic Middle East theatre of the war on terrorism like Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan and of course Turkey which has borders with Iraq and Syria and which has accommodated over 2.5 million refugees since the Syrian crises started. These nations have had more than their fair share of deaths and killings arising from the war against Radical Islam even though they remain staunchly Muslim. It is these nations in the theatre of terrorism that one can describe as being numb to terrorism given the number of people killed in their midst on a daily basis.

    Not Western European nations who in Nice trooped to the beaches to enjoy after a truck has killed about 80 of them on Bastille Day in Nice, France. It is nations like Turkey, Syria and Iraq that can be said to have fear fatigue as they have no where to go to as they kill each other as if they are not fellow human beings frivolously and bloodily almost daily since the war on terrorism started over the 9/11 bombing of the Twin Towers of New York in 2001. Such nations certainly do not care a hoot who the next president in the US is. Certainly these terror numb nations can tell off the two presidential candidates in the 2016 US presidential elections with the words of Romeo’s friend stabbed and dying in Shakespeare’s tragedy Romeo and Juliet – ‘a plague on both your houses, they have made worms meat of me ‘.

    With regard to Russia and China I can see them wishing Donald Trump some measure of success and the reason is not far fetched. Donald Trump is doing their dirty work historically of rubbishing US foreign policy and political values and dragging the Obama policy in the mud . The Russian President Vladmir Putin has scant regard for President Obama and was an admirer of his predecessor George Bush JNR . Putin will be dealing with the third US president after this 2016 presidential election and will be seeing the Russian political system as more reliable and stable than the US system that has thrown up a divisive candidate like Donald Trump.

    This is because Putin knows the Americans want to believe they won the Cold War because the US Ideology was better than the Russian ideology of Communism, a fact that Putin resents very bitterly and has always condemned. As for the Chinese they have their investments mostly in US treasury bills and know that Trump is a billionaire even though the Chinese billionaires nowadays are far richer than their American counterparts. So the Trump presidency is not one the Chinese will lose any sleep over in spite of Trump’s threat to deal with the Chinese once elected. Which now leaves us with Africa and on which we shall consider Egypt, Nigeria and S Africa very briefly. Egypt has an elected military president resembling a diarchy no thanks to the Obama legacy. Indeed the man elected president based on the 2011 Cairo speech of Obama that led to the Tahrir Square democracy protests is now facing a death sentence in Egypt. Certainly the Egyptian army and government would welcome a Trump presidency as they are not comfortable with the possibility of a Hillary presidency.

    The same measure will apply to S Africa where the nation’s president has been engulfed in corruption and diversion of public funds for personal house renovation. The Obama Administration kept the Zuma presidency at arm’s length on account of this so the prospect of a change of guard in the US White House will not bother the authorities in Pretoria. That leaves us with Nigeria where the war on both terrorism and corruption is raging. Boko Haram the terrorist group in Nigeria is an affiliate of ISIS so a Trump presidency will be comrade in arms with the Buhari government.

    But the Americans under Obama have promised help on fighting Boko Haram even though they have always pointed out at joint security sessions that the leadership of the armed forces was corrupt. This fact surfaced with a change of government in 2015 as reality and the bitter truth, with the revelations on diversion of funds for war at the office of the former NSA .So it is a toss up on what will happen between Hillary and Trump in Aso Rock .Although I suspect the ban threat on Muslims will tilt the balance against the mercurial and unpredictable Mr Trump. Once again long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Change and global realignment of forces

    The  three most outspoken  and controversial   leaders  on  the world scene today  are  undoubtedly US  Republican  Presidential  candidate  Donald  Trump, Turkey’s  President Tayyip Erdogan and of late the  new  President of  the Philippines  Rodrigo  Duterte. For  various  reasons, motives  and  intention they  have commanded the attention  of  the world   and are driving  or  attempting to  make things  happen  as they like or  to make the world  and their environment  see  issues  and problems from  their  perspectives.

     It   will  be a classical  understatement  to  just  call  them  strong  leaders  or  to dismiss  them  as crazy  as many  brand  Trump, arrogant  as some describe Erdogan or murderous   as some call  Rodrigo  the  new  Filipino strong  man. But  no  one can  ignore  the obvious  fact  that  they  are  driving change in their environment, are  popular  and no  matter  how  distasteful  you may  think, they   have  charisma, the magical  quality that guarantee blind,  unrelenting followership.

    In  a world  besieged by Islamic militancy  and  terrorism,  typified  by the murderous Islamic  State or ISIL, of  the borderless  caliphate  notoriety, national  and regional  insurgency  and  the greatest  migration in  history  of   humans   and   global  insecurity is obvious   and  pervasive. With  desperate  migrants fleeing  wars  in the Middle  East  and descending on Europe  from  the Mediterranean and  the high seas, the  emergence  of these three  leaders appears  to be a logical  conclusion given  the type of message  for  change and  hope  for   a  better future   that   their  mannerisms and eccentric  style  of leadership have brought forward.  It  is my  intention to show  today how  these three  leaders  are  involved in measures  that will result in a realignment  of  forces in international  affairs  and  diplomacy  globally. I  make bold  to say   such realignment    may   be as important as such  alignments,  alliances  and deep  feuds   that  characterized  the Cold  War  from the end  of the Second  World War to  the collapse  of  the Soviet Union and the fall  of  the Berlin  Wall in  Germany.

    For  a start  let  us examine  some  of  the utterances  and actions  of  these leaders  in the last  one week . Donald  Trump  this week  said US  President  Barak  Obama founded  ISIS and  gave emphasis to Obama’s Muslim name Hussein in making his point,  which  he has not retracted. Turkey’s  Erdogan  visited Russian President  Vladmir Putin in Russia and  warned  that  unless  the US extradited the cleric living in America that  he insists  was  behind  the failed  coup in Turkey  recently, then the US  will  have to choose  between Turkey  and the cleric.  In  the Philippines the newly  elected president  Rodrigo  Duterte,  called  the US ambassador  in the country  a son  of  a bitch  for  interfering in the last  presidential  elections in that  nation. We  shall  now proceed  to  look  at  the implications  of  the actions and utterances  we have  highlighted.

    Starting from Trump,  it is easy  to  say  that nothing can  be further  from  the truth in saying Obama  is a founder of  ISIS .However  what  the Republican  presidential  candidate was saying in his  usual  polemical  manner was that  Obama’s  foreign  policy contributed  to  the  emergence   and blood  thirstiness  of ISIL   and  that  is  not  very  far from  the truth. It even  does  not make Trump crazy but  at  best confrontational or   perhaps   verbally violent. If  you  add  Syria  and the  failed Obama  line in the   sand on  chemical  weapons  used  by  President  Assad on  his people plus the attendant migration through Turkey and the Oceans by  millions   of   Arabs    and  Syrians fleeing  war  in  the   Middle  East,  then  you get  to  see that Trump  was  holding  the US president  responsible for diplomatic failure of a policy of  deterrence  culminating  in the emergence and ferocity of ISIS. There was  no  way  he could  have been saying he  Obama   was   there at  the founding of  ISIS. Such  a conclusion will  be naïve and  rather   simplistic in  many ways.

    On  the  global  scene Donald  Trump  has cast  aspersion on the Obama legacy  which  is the legacy that the candidate of the President’s  party Hillary  Clinton  has  adopted to  campaign to  succeed  Obama.  Trump  however  has consistently thrown spanner in the works of Hillary’s  succession by  defaming Obama on  ISIS and calling  Hillary  crooked. Trump  has taken  on the world  literally before  becoming president  and it is predictable how the world  would look  if  he becomes  president, a  possibility that  even  Obama who  branded him unfit to be president  has candidly  acknowledged.  Undoubtedly  Donald  Trump is  planning  to bring a new  world in to existence,  like British Foreign  Secretary Lord  Palmerston   once said in defending  colonialism,’ to  redress  the balance  of  the  old‘. Given  the way  Islamic  terrorism  has brought both Muslims and Christians to their  knees globally  I   see  nothing unthinkable about a change of  guard  in the US or  anywhere  for  that matter   if   the  stated  objective  is   to make the world  more secure  for humanity  in any environment  they   exist  in  order to survive.

    Similarly  Erdogan’s   threat on extradition of Gulen or  parting of ways  with the US  should  not  be treated  lightly  or  scoffed   at. The  fact  that Erdogan  has  gone to Putin  in  Russia  to  patch  their relations up  is significant. Turkey  is  strategic member of  the military  alliance  between the US  and  Europe  called  NATO. Turkey  for  now is the nation  at  the heart of  Europe through  which Syrians  are  fleeing  to Europe in  droves  and that is creating tension between  existing  European  governments   and the electorates. Such  tension  created the  Brexit  success  in  Britain  and like the Financial Times wryly  noted  this  week,  is driving  the Donald  Trump  campaign  in  the US.  In  addition Erdogan  has  mended fences  with  Israel  and together  they can screw Syria’s  Assad  which  has always  been  a  mutual  foe  to both nations.  Especially  as both the present political  leaders of  Turkey  and Israel  are at loggerheads  with the US their traditional  patron  and  supporter.

    Meanwhile   some   pessimists   have observed  that any  truce between  Turkey and Russia cannot  last  because historically  the Ottoman  Empire  of Turkey  has  been at logger heads with the  Russian Empire for  centuries.  But  that is so much ancient  history  as Turkey  now knows  the  importance of trade  and tourism  for its  buoyant economy  which was why Erdogan  has won three elections back  to  back and is so [popular  he is using the failed  coup  to castrate  the military  politically and  totally  in  Turkey. In  addition  Turkey’s  protracted  application to join  the EU and  which is  being threatened  for  cancellation by  the  EU  because Erdogan  wants  to execute  the recent  coup  plotters,   may  be  given  some pep  or accelerated approval  after  50  years if  Turkey  threatens  to  open its borders for a predictable floodgate  of  desperate war  migrants into  Europe.

    In  broad  terms then  the diplomatic  options  open to  Turkey  under Erdogan  are  enormous and the US   with  its sovereign reputation  in tatters  because of  the quality  of its 2016  presidential  campaign  is hardly   on  any moral  ground  to give any lessons on democracy, security  or  even   amazingly,  on  political  stability given  the Trump  bull   in the China shop  plaguing its political  system.  Inevitably  then, some diplomatic  horse trading must  be concluded sooner than later in  the Middle  East  which  will  alter immensely  the political  equation in that  part  of  the world,   and    even  the US and  Europe as we know them  today.

    With  regard to  President Rodrigo  Duterte   of  the Philippines   there  could  be no excuse  for  him  to  call  the US ambassador a gay  ambassador  and the son  of  a whore. Yet  that  was  what  happened this  last  week  and the US  has called the Filipino  Ambassador  in  Washington   to  protest. But  the new President  of  Philippines,   Rodrigo a former  mayor  got  elected  because    he  promised  to  kill drug  lords  pestering his  people  and to  trample on  human  rights  in order  to tackle  terrorism,  corruption  and crime in his nation. Yet  he  got  elected  to  show  that   in  a democracy,  the  choice  of the electorate  matters at  the polls  and that the voice  of  the people  is the voice  of  God.

    In  conclusion then,  I think  it is the prayer  of citizens  in  any  nation to be blessed  with  leaders  who  are  people  oriented and who  have  integrity  and are blunt.  I have  mentioned three   world leaders  today and  would have added  a fourth in the Nigerian  President Muhammadu  Buhari. But he seems  to  have  lost  his  momentum on  the promised  change that brought him to power in 2015. The only  shining  armour  he has  now is his integrity  and  the  respect  of  the Nigerian  nation. He  has not shown   enough  strength in punishing  those stealing  public  funds  because  he wants  to  be politically  correct. This  is   something the anti establishment   Donald  Trump in  the US  said  he does  not  want  to  be.  Yet    President  Buhari has  more  political    power and acceptability   in  Nigeria   to    blaze  a trail, than  Trump has  in the US for   holding    political   correctness  in  contempt. Buhari  has  to  do something unexpected  and non-conformist  to  show  Nigerians that those who steal  public  funds cannot  get away   with  murder as at present.  He  can not do that  by being politically  correct  under  our present  laws  where  even  the Speaker  says budget  padding is not an  offence  and the presidency reportedly  agreed. Once again, long  live  the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Political awareness, corruption and succession

    I  start  today  with  an  ancient  and  time honoured  saying  that – the mills of  justice may  grind  slowly  but  they  grind exceedingly fine. I  adopt  this saying as the flagship  of our  discussion of  the title  of  the day. In  doing this I will  show  that in various  parts of  the  world as  we know it  today,  people  are  increasingly  aware and are intensely  critical  of  the type  of leadership  they  get or  have and   are  remonstrating  and  protesting where  an when they  are disappointed or  think  that they are being  shortchanged or   suspect  that the present  leadership  they  have is taking them for  a ride.

    It  is indeed  not  very  difficult  to see  what  I am  trying t decipher  because  it not  lost  in  plain sight  to  any  discerning observer  of  world  politics  in  the last  one week.  In   Brazil  in Latin America the Olympics  have  started  but  hundreds  of  protesters  took  to the streets when  the Olympic  torch  was received by the Mayor  of Rio de Janeiro  and the two  presidents who  brought  the Olympics to  Brazil  are  facing  corruption  and  impeachment  charges for budget  padding.  Similarly in  Nigeria the  former Chairman  of  the Appropriations Committee of the House  of  Representatives  has shot  back at the Speaker  who  relieved him of his  position  with much  venom  and charges  of  financial  recklessness on  budget  padding   and has written a petition  to  the anti  corruption body – the EFCC – to  prosecute  the Speaker  for budget  fixing,  padding  and other  odious budget  approval  malfeasance.  Also   in  the same  Latin  America  where  the last  two  presidents  are  on  tenterhooks  in  Brazil  over  corruption  charges a sitting   President  Ortega  of  the Sandinista  fame in   Nicaragua  got  the  Supreme  Court   judgement  to  contest  for  a third term and immediately  nominated  his wife as his  running  mate  for  Nicaragua’s next  presidential  election due very  soon. Surely  one  man’s  food  is  another  man’s  poison especially  in the  politics of  elections  and  succession in  the democracies  of  Latin  America  where  the Perons blazed  a trail  in  matrimonial  succession in  Argentina sometime  ago.

    Yet  it  is in North  America  not  Latin  America  that  the greatest  political  volcano  of our  time  is about  to  explode  and I  really  do  not  think  I am  exaggerating   or  being  unduly  alarmist.  I am  simply  bothered  as  a  serious  student  of  global politics  and  human  progress  and  I have  shown  my  apprehension  and  concern  in  my  last  recent  essays  on  American  politics  and  the 2016  presidential  elections  which  has come to  be dominated  by  the brand  of  politics that  the Republican  candidate  Donald  Trump  has  brought  on  board   with  his forceful  personality and  even  more  violent  language  on  the  campaigns  and the  November elections.  Which  he  obviously  sees  as a no  holds  barred,  winner  takes  all, scotched  earth political  undertaking.  Which  also   is unprecedented  in  US  politics  and  has  prompted  a sitting  US  president Barak  Obama, to  declare  that an  opposition  candidate  against  his  anointed presidential  candidate  is  not  fit  to be  president.  Which  also  on its own is extreme  language  to  use  on any  candidate  including  Donald  Trump  no  matter  how much  of  an  irritant he  has turned  out  to  be in  the pursuit  of his democratically acquired mandate   and legitimate  candidature.

    Similarly  in Turkey the  incumbent  president  who  survived  a military  coup   recently,  has  seized  the opportunity  to  put  his  political  house  in order  by  purging  all  public  institutions  accused  of  harboring  coup  plotters  and  sympathisers.  President  Tayyip  Erdogan  is  making sure  that  lightning  does  not strike twice  at  the same spot  and it is difficult  to  blame him  especially  if  one realizes that  life  has  no  duplicate  and  that  even  a cat  with  nine  lives such as  he  must   learn  fast  to  always watch  his  back  to survive  politically  in Turkey’s  volatile, secular vs Islamist  politics  and  elections.

    These  then  are  the issues  on  the table  today  and  I will  now stamp  on  each  my  views  and  comments in  the light of  the topic  of  the day starting  with  Brazil and  the order  of  narration so  far.  Really,  who  could  have thought  that Dilmar  Rousseff the  President  of  Brazil during  the 2014  World  Cup would  not  be in  office  and would  be facing impeachment  trial two  years  later during  the 2016  Olympics  brokered   by  her  predecessor  who  handpicked  her  to succeed  him  and see   through   the  two  prestigious  sporting events? Yet  the ominous  signs were  there  in  the way  Brazilians protested  during the 2014  World  Cup  at  the corruption in their  sporting  institutions while ordinary  Brazilians wallowed in abject  poverty.  Even  the gods  of  soccer  did  not smile at the  Brazilians in their favorite  sport  of  soccer  as they  were  humiliated by a disgraceful  7-1 defeat  on their  own  soil  as  hosts  by the merciless  Germany   team   which  went  on   to win the 2014  World  cup  in  Brazil,  to  President  Dilmar  Rousseff’s  utter  discomfort  and embarrassment. Events  in  Brazil  have shown  that  politicians  cannot  get  far away  from  public  anger  no  matter  how  many  fanciful  games  and sport  they  invent  and sponsor  to  divert  the anger and  poverty  of  the  people  away  from  their  sufferings  as the ancient  Roman  Emperors  did  with  the staged  fights and lions  in the arenas  of  ancient  Rome.

    In  Nigeria  the sordid  revelations  on  budget  padding  show  clearly  that  dishonesty is a way  of  life  in  our legislative  institutions.  A  simple  task  of   budgetary  cost  control  built  into  our  presidential  system  as a form  of  checks  and  balancing  and   separation  of  powers,  has  been  turned  upside  down  and made to serve the narrow  constituency  interests of  elected legislators. It  is both a betrayal  of  the constitution  and the electoral   process  in  the democracy  that  saw  the emergence   of such law  makers  intent  on  perverting the democratic  process  for  their  selfish  interests. Of  course  no  budget  can thrive under such  a warped  and corrupt  system  which  makes   a mockery  of  budget  planning and execution  while economic  growth  and  welfare become unrealizable  like  a mirage on  our  heated Northern  highways. Of  course  the EFCC  must  do  its duty  and prosecute  those  involved. Since  every  disappointment  can  be turned  into a blessing,  this whistle blowing  by  legislators   turning  on themselves may  yet  be the shortest   way  to put  our  legislative  chambers in  order and  hopefully  make budget  padding  a thing  of  the past.

    Not   much  can be made of  Ortega  appointing  his wife  as running  mate  as that  has  been  done twice  in Argentina – the  Perons   and  de  Kircheners – and  the ladies  performed  well  in  succeeding  their  husbands.  The  issue    however  is   the ethics  of  it. Which  is that  such   a consideration   of a wife  for  succeeding   the  husband   should  not arise in  a healthy  political  system  where  merit  is  the deciding  factor.  The  wife should  in my view  just  not be up  for  consideration  to  succeed  the husband  no  matter  her  talents as the couple is  supposed  to  be one entity and  not two  and  therefore  not  extendable  in  terms of  political  succession in  any way.

    In  taking  on  the US here  then,  I  think  the same bias  would  dog  the  candidature  of  Hillary  Clinton  as  the presidential   candidate of  the    Democratic   Party.  Although  Donald  Trump  has taken  a lot  of heat on his  political  campaign  style  Hillary  Clinton  too is  not having  things easy. An  anti  –  Hillary   documentary  by  Dinesh  D’ Souza   titled -Hillary’s  America; The secret story  of  the Democratic  Party -has  been  said  to  be the highest  earning  documentary in the US  for  now. Although  I  have  not watched  the film  the producer  said  it   showed  Hillary’s    real    motivations   and  is  based  on  facts which will  alter  the way  blacks and Hispanics  perceive  their  relations with  the Democratic  Party.  Given  its  history  of endorsing slavery and discrimination in this documented  history  of  the Democratic  Party, of  which Hillary is the current  presidential  candidate. How  the issues in the documentary which  Donald  Trump  has reportedly  endorsed,  unravel,  and  how  much  publicity it  gets  will  certainly  affect  the progress  of  either  Trump  or  Hillary  in their  quest  to become the next  US president.  Either  way  it seems as if  a  bomb is  ticking to go  off  in  this 2016 US  Presidential elections   and  I do  not  think  that is a healthy  feeling   for  either  US  politics or  even  global  democracy  and  peace  for that  matter.   Once  again  long  live  the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Turkey, Trump, Nigeria—And the global jungle of democracy

    The  recent   failed  coup in  Turkey has  shown  vividly  that  the  world’s  democracies  are  not safe  or  immune  from military  coups and take overs which  were the norm in the world in  the sixties  and  seventies. Just  as the emergence  of  Donald  Trump  as the presidential candidate  of  the Republican  candidate has  shown  that  democracy in even  the most  sophisticated  democracies  in  the world can degenerate and  decay in  terms  of the  language of political  participation and  the rhetoric  of the  quest  for  power. This  is brutally and glaringly true in  spite  of  the  fact  that  Hillary Clinton made  history this week as the first woman to  be nominated  to contest for  the presidency of the US on the platform  of the Democratic  Party.

    Both scenarios  in  Turkey  and  the US  provide  the food  for thought today  and  the approach  I have  adopted  to  illustrate  them  is both historical  and  comparative.  I  will  also  look  at  the situation  in  Nigeria   where  past   arms  purchases  have   opened  a canker worms  of  corruption  and  even  the present   army  chief  is  under  the searchlight  in  the   public    domain   for  the purchases  of  houses  in  Dubai   while   still   a serving  public  official.   It   is  my intention  to  show   through  these  issues  that  democracy  is under  stress  globally  and has  become a jungle  of  sorts  given the  challenge of  militant  Islam   or  Daesh as well  as the dwindling  available   resources  of  even  the richest  economies  and democracies  to  provide  the necessities  of  life  that their  citizens  have come to take for granted and  which  immigrants  from  hostile  places  have come largely  uninvited  to share  and consume.

    Turkey  provides  a unique  example  after  my  heart  of  a democracy  that  works when  the leadership  is strong  and bold  and the economy is strong and buoyant  and the people have  confidence  in their  government.  Indeed  that was  the  reason the coup  failed  because  the Turks  took  to  the streets, faced tanks and dragged   tank  drivers  and  soldiers  out  of their war  tanks  and stripped  them  of  their  uniforms.  Indeed   the  streets  were  littered  with discarded uniforms  and  boots of  soldiers who fled  nakedly  and in borrowed  robes  to  escape  the anger  and indignation  of  a  democratically  charged  and  alert  electorate. That  to  me is  the face of  modern  democracy.  When  people are  motivated  to secure  their  democracy  with their  lives  in the face of  violence  that seeks  to trample  or  destroy it, right  before  their eyes.

    Yet  Turkey  has  a history  of  success  of  military  coups  that  the Turks  have come  to  expect as a  way  of  life  and political  culture   until  the  present President  Recep  Tayyip  Erdogan  came to  power. Erdogan,   in  our    time has become a case  study  on  how  to  tame  military  intervention  in  politics  and  has my  admiration  in  this  regard in  the way  he  handled  the  last  coup.  Even  though  he  seems  to  me  to   have overreached himself  by  arresting  over  6000 people  on the coup  thereby   virtually  turning his  nation  into  a  huge  garrison  of  sorts,  a situation   which  places enormous strain on  Turkey’s   security   resources  and     apparatus  at   a time when  the ISIS/  Daesh   threat  is ever  present  and  dangerous.

    Erdogan’s  survival  strength  did  not   however  come  out  of a  vacuum. He  and  his party  have  won  three elections back  to  back  in  Turkey  whose secularity  is guaranteed  by  the  army  according  to  the constitution  handed  down  by  Kemal  Ataturk  who established  modern  Turkey  from  the rumps of the collapsed  Ottoman  Empire  which   bestrode  Europe  at  the time  and reached  as  far  Austria   in  Europe   before  its  collapse.  Erdogan  may  not  be a  Sultan  of  the Ottoman  Empire  but  he  has dreams of  their  splendor  which  he has realized  by  building a 1000  room  Presidential  Palace  in  Istanbul, Turkey’s  capital  and  in  the way  he has  successfully  changed the constitution  of  Turkey  recently  to  a presidency  with himself  as the  first  president.  Obviously  Erdogan  is sitting tight  in  Turkey  and has  turned  the tables  on the military  which  did not reckon  with  the populism  and charisma  he has  acquired  in three  election  victories  as well  as his   bravery  and boldness  to stand up  and protect   his well  earned    democratic  political  stature  and popularity. He  has    definitely   taught  the generals in Turkey   a  huge   lesson   that even in  the   rough   and  tumble  of   democracy, might  is not  always  right.

    In Nigeria  the present President  Muhammadu  Buhari  has been  bold  in his anti-corruption  campaign  which  he   has  embarked  on  single  mindedly  in  spite   of  diversionary  tactics of  even  those  with  whom  constitutionally  he  shares  power.  But  he    is  still  admired  for  his anti – corruption  drive    even  though  the  economy  is performing dismally  with  a falling currency  against  the  dollar  and dwindling oil  resources occasioned by  the   blow  up   of  pipelines by  militants in  the oil  rich  delta area.  But  Buhari’s  rise  to  power  is another romantic  political  story   similar  to that of  Erdogan  in Turkey  but  in the opposite  direction in terms  of ascendancy  and  history   Buhari was  military  leader  ousted  from office  by  his  soldiers  in a  military  coup 31  years   ago. He  then  went into  political oblivion only  to  surface as  a politician  who  contested  presidential  elections and lost  serially.  Until  2015  when  his party   the   APC, marshaled  by a former  governor  of  the  nation’s  commercial  capital  won  a landslide  victory  in  the 2015  `presidential  election. Buhari  who  had been  suspicious all along  on  why  the  Boko  Haram was winning  the war  against  a vastly  superior  Nigerian  army,  ordered  a probe  of  arms  purchases   and that  threw  up  a frightening revelation. Past  arms funds  had  been  diverted  to other  purposes   other  than  the Boko Haram War  and  the  presidential  campaign  of  the ruling  PDP  had   been  largely  funded from  funds  meant  for  arms purchase  to  fight  and  defeat  Boko  Haram.

    For  a military  man  turned  politician  like  Buhari, the  die  was  cast  as he said  at  his inaugural  address  even  though  as at  then,   he did not  know  the level  of stench in the  Augean Stable  handed   over   to  him  by  his predecessor. Only  a man  with  Buhari’s  antecedents  can take on  the  military in  Nigeria  given  the  level  of  corruption on  diversion  of arms  purchase  funds  by  past military  chiefs  and the present clamour   for  the  probe of  the  present army  chief  who  has been quite  successful  though,   on  ousting the menace  of  Boko  Haram  from  the battle   fronts  and driving them into  the desperate  survival and lethal  retreat    tactic  of  using small  girls  as  suicide  bombers.

    Like  Erdogan, Buhari  is bold,  has charisma and  Nigerians  trust  him because of  his integrity. But  the  Achilles   heels   of  his administration  are  the weak  economy,  the huge  rise in petrol prices  he brought  on  board as well  as  lop  sidedness  of  government  appointments  in  favour of the North in  a nation in which  the federal  character  is  in  the constitution to prevent  such discrimination. It  is such   lapses  that  his  administration  need  to  focus on urgently, as  these  are  issues  that  those caught  red  handed in looting the treasury   especially  in  the military  can exploit  to  cause  confusion.  Fortunately  the  image of  the  Nigerian  military  is in  tatters as at  now that  revelations on  arms  funds  diversion  are  in  the public domain   and  the situation  of a military coup  is just  unthinkable  for  a military  in  utter disgrace  for using  money  meant   for war   for  personal purposes  not  only  now,  but in the past. That  is  the jungle  our  own  democracy  is in right  now and we depend on commitment  and charisma  of  Buhari  to  get us  out  of  the woods  God  willing.

    With  regard  to the US,  the  call  by  the Republicans through their candidate Donald  Trump  that his  opponent in the race  Hillary  Clinton  should  be  jailed is  both  chilling  and  frightening  and  shows  that  the division  in the  US political system is  deeper  than  envisaged. But   democracy  is a competition  for  power  and it  has its rules,  ethics and  protocols. It  is like sports  in  which  the  loser  must  congratulate  the  winner  and life  goes  on. It  is not  a matter of  life  and death.  Hillary  Clinton  may  have  had  her  faults  and could  even  have  been  extremely careless on  her  handling  of  her  mails as Secretary  of   State   as  the  FBI  boss,  said    but  she  is  certainly  not  a criminal.

    Nevertheless   the   historic  emergence  of  Hillary  Clinton  as the presidential  candidate  of  the  Democratic  Party  this week  is  most  welcome  more  so  as  the language of  her backers  at the Convention has been civil  and  tolerant even though  everything hinges on  Hillary  contesting on the legacy  of the Obama Administration.  This  is  a  legacy    whose  failures  especially on  foreign policy, the economy  and security are  fuelling the  Trump  campaign  and  has sustained  it  so  far to  the chagrin  of those  Americans  yearning  for  some  decent language  and  politics  in  this  unique  2016 presidential  campaign  and  elections.

    Undoubtedly    and  decidedly,    Donald  Trump  has  created  a  vengeful  presidential  campaign   for  the US   presidential  election  of  2016  and the  American  political  system  is  facing  its stiffest  test in terms  of stability, security   and  tolerance  for  decades.  How  it survives in  the face of such do  or  die  rhetoric with  the emergence  of  a man like  Donald  Trump  who could  be its  next  president  if  he wins, will be    most  interesting to  watch,  behold   and     even    analyse,   as it  unfolds   till  the elections in  November.  Why  or  how  the  divided  Americans     of  today,   steeped  in democracy  for  ages as they   are,   have not themselves seen the looming political  chaos   and  danger   awaiting them  in the emergence  of  Donald  Trump in this  presidential  campaign  certainly  beats  my  imagination.  The  fact  that  even Obama  concedes  that  a  Trump  victory can  only  be averted by  the Democrats by fighting  desperately    for their  political  life  in  this campaign   shows  clearly  that  the die  is  cast  for  the  sanity of  American  politics  between  now  and the presidential   elections in  November 2016.

    Once  again  long  live  the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Turkey, Trump, Nigeria—And the global jungle of democracy

    The  recent   failed  coup in  Turkey has  shown  vividly  that  the  world’s  democracies  are  not safe  or  immune from military  coups and take overs which  were the norm in the world in  the sixties  and  seventies. Just  as the emergence  of  Donald Trump  as the presidential candidate  of  the Republican  candidate has  shown  that  democracy in even  the most  sophisticated  democracies  in  the world can degenerate and  decay in  terms  of the language of political  participation and  the rhetoric  of the  quest  for  power.

     Both    scenarios  in  Turkey  and  the US  provide  the food  for thought today  and  the approach  I have  adopted  to  illustrate  them  is both historical  and  comparative.  I  will  also  look  at  the situation  in  Nigeria   where  past   arms  purchases  have opened  a canker worms  of  corruption  and  even  the present   army chief  is  under  the searchlight   for  the purchases  of  houses  in  Dubai in  the public  domain. It   is  my intention  to  show  through  them  that  democracy  is under  stress  globally  and has  become a jungle  of  sorts . Given the  challenge of  militant  Islam as well  as the dwindling  resources  of  even  the richest  economies  and democracies  to  provide  the necessities  of  life  that their  citizens  have come to take for granted.

    Turkey  provides  a unique  example  after  my  heart  of  a democracy  that  works when  the leadership  is strong  and bold  and the economy is strong and buoyant  and the people have  confidence  in their  government.  Indeed  that was  the  reason the coup  failed  because  the Turks  took  to  the streets, faced tanks and dragged   tank  drivers  out  of their war  tanks  and stripped  them  of  their  uniforms.  Indeed the  streets  were  littered  with discarded uniforms  and  boots of  soldiers who fled  nakedly  and in borrowed  robes  to  escape  the anger  and indignation  of  a  democratically  charged  and  alert  electorate. That  to  me is  the face of  modern  democracy,  when  people are  motivated  to secure  their  democracy  with their  lives  in the face of  violence  that seeks  to trample  or  destroy it right  before  their eyes.

    Yet Turkey  has  a history  of success  of  military  coups  that Turks  have come  to  expect as a  way of  life  and political  culture until  the  present President  Yaccip  Erdogan  came to  power. Erdogan  has become a case  study  on  how  to  tame  military  intervention  in  politics  and  has my  admiration  in  this  regard in  the way  he  handled  the  last  coup  this week. Even  though  he  seems  to  me  to   have overreached himself  by  arresting  over  6000 people  on the coup  thereby virtually  turning his  nation  into  a  huge  garrison  of  sorts  and which  places enormous price on  Turkey’s  resources at  a time when  the ISIS  threat  is ever  present.

    Erdogan’s  survival  strength  did  not come  out  of a  vacuum.  He  and  his party  have  won  three elections back  to  back  in  Turkey  whose secularity  is guaranteed  by  the  army  according  to  the constitution  handed  down  by Kemal  Ataturk  who established  modern  Turkey  from  the rumps of the collapsed  Ottoman  Empire  which   bestrode  Europe  at  the time  and reached  as  far Austria  before  its  collapse. Erdogan  may  not  be a  Sultan  of  the Ottoman  Empire  but  he  has dreams of  their  splendor which he has realized by building a 1000  room  Presidential  Palace  in  Istanbul, Turkey’s  capital   and   in  the way  he has  successfully  changed the constitution  of  Turkey  recently  to  a presidency  with himself  as the  first  president.  Obviously  Erdogan  is sitting tight  in  Turkey  and has  turned  the tables  on the military  which  did not reckon  with  the populism  and charisma  he has  acquired  in three  election  victories  as well  as his   bravery  and boldness  to stand up  and protect his well  earned  political  stature  and popularity. He  has    definitely   taught  the generals in Turkey a  huge  lesson   that even in  the   rough   and  tumble      of   democracy, might  is not  always  right .

    In Nigeria  the present President  Muhammadu  Buhari  has been  bold  in his anti  corruption  campaign  which he   has  embarked  on  single  mindedly  in  spite   of  diversionary  tactics of  even  those  with  whom  constitutionally  he  shares  power.   But  he  still  admired  for  his anti  corruption  drive    even  though  the  economy  is performing dismally  with  a falling currency  against  the  dollar  and dwindling oil  resources occasioned by militants in  the oil  rich  delta area.  But  Buhari’s  rise  to  power  is another romantic  political  story   similar  to that of  Erdogan  in Turkey  but  in the opposite  direction in terms  of ascendancy.

    Buhari was  military  leader  ousted  from office  by  his  soldiers  in a  military  coup . He  then  went into  political oblivion only  to  surface as  a politician  who  contested  presidential  elections and lost  serially.  Until  2015  when  his party   the   APC, marshaled  by a former  governor  of  the  nation’s  commercial  capital  won  a landslide  victory  in  the 2015  `presidential  election. Buhari  who  had been  suspicious all along  on  why  the  Boko  Haram was winning  the war  against  a vastly  superior  Nigerian  army ordered  a probe  of  arms  purchases   and that  threw  up  a frightening revelation. Past  arms funds  had  been  diverted  to other  purposes   other  than  the Boko Haram War  and  the  presidential  campaign  of  the ruling  PDP  had   been  largely  funded from  funds  mean,t  for  arms purchase  to  fight  and  defeat  Boko  Haram.

    For  a military  man  turned  politician  like  Buhari  the  die  was  cast  as he said  at  his inaugural  address  even  though  as at  then  he did not  know  the level  of stench in the  Augean Stable  handed   over   to  him  by  his predecessor . Only  a man  with  Buhari’s  antecedents  can take on  the  military in  Nigeria  given  the  level  of  corruption on  diversion  of arms  purchase  funds  by  past military  chiefs  and the present clamour   for  the  probe of  the  present army  chief  who  has been quite  successful  though on  ousting the menace  of  Boko  Haram  from  the battle   fronts  and driving them into  the desperate  survival and lethal  tactic  of  using small  girls  as  suicide  bombers.

    Like  Erdogan, Buhari  is bold,  has charisma and  Nigerians  trust  him because of  his integrity. But  the  Achilles heels of  his administration  are  the weak  economy  and the huge  rise in petrol prices  he brought  on  board as well  as  lop  sidedness  of  government  appointments  in  favour of the North in  a nation in which  the federal  character  is  in  the constitution to prevent  such discrimination. It  is such   lapses  that  his  administration  need  to  focus on urgently, as  these  are  issues  that  those caught  red  handed in looting the treasury especially  in  the military  can exploit  to  cause  confusion.  Fortunately  the  image of  the  Nigerian  military  is in  tatters as at  now that  revelations on  arms  funds  diversion  are  in  the public domain   and  the situation  of a military coup  is just  unthinkable  for  a military  in utter disgrace  for using  money  meant   for war   for  personal purposes  not  only  now,  but in the past. That  is  the jungle  our  own  democracy  is in right  now and we depend on commitment  and charisma  of  Buhari  to  get us  out  of  the woods  God  willing.

    With  regard  to the US,  the  call  by  the Republicans through their candidate Donald  Trump  that his  opponent in the race  Hillary  Clinton  should  be  jailed is  both  chilling  and  frightening  and  shows  that  the division in the US political system is deeper  than  envisaged. Democracy  is a competition  for  power  and it  has its rules  and  protocols. It  is like sports  in  which  the  loser  must  congratulate  the  winner  and life  goes  on. It  is not  a matter of  life  and death.  Hillary  Clinton  may  have  had  her  faults  and could  even  have  been  extremely careless on  her  handling  of  her  mails as Secretary  of  as  the  FBI  boss  said    but  she  is  certainly  not  a criminal.  Donald  Trump  has  created  a  vengeful  presidential campaign for the  presidential  election of 2016  and the  American  political  system  is  facing  its stiffest  test in terms  of stability, security  and  tolerance  for  decades.  How  it survives in  the face of such do  or  die  rhetoric with  the emergence  of  a man like  Donald  Trump  who could  be its  next  president  if  he wins , will be the  real  seventh  wonder  of  the world .  Why  or  how  the  divided  Americans      steeped  in democracy  for  ages as they   are   have not themselves seen the looming political  chaos   and  danger  is what  baffles  my  imagination .

    Once  again  long  live  the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria .

  • Mandates, credibility and duty

    At  long   last  the  Nigerian  Senate  had  its  way  when  the  Attorney  General  of the  Federation   and the Secretary  to the Government  finally  showed  up as demanded  by  the lawmakers to answer questions on the court cases of the Senate  President as well  as well  as some comments of the SGF on  some  expenditure  in the 2016  budget. Before  that the Senators  had  threatened  to  impeach the  President  himself  if  his  officials  failed  to  come to the Senate.

    In  the UK  where  a second  lady  Prime  Minister,   Theresa  May  emerged- after the Iron Lady  Margaret  Thatcher-the   First  Secretary  of    Scotland,  which  just  in  2014 voted in  a  referendum  to  stay in Britain said  the new British  PM  did  not  have  the mandate  of  Scotland to  implement Brexit  as she promised on coming to  office  as the new  UK, PM  this  week.  And  in  Dallas  at a memorial for 5  Police  officers killed  by a black  man who  reportedly  was  looking for  white police  officers because he believed they were killing blacks with  impunity, US  President  Barak  Obama   made  a speech  on race  relations that  should  earn  him a Nobel  Prize  on Peace,  and  mark his presidency  for  posterity,  if  he  had  not  been  hastily    given  that prestigious  award  in  undue  haste  at  the  start  of  his  presidency by  the wise  men  of  Oslo.

    These  three  events  then  form  the nucleus  of  our  discussion today. They  revolve  around  political  mandates  and the use  or  misuse  of  them. They  reek  of  leadership  traits in  actions  that  define the  quality  of  leadership and credibility  in  the  line  of  duty.  And  certainly  there  are  home  truths, and  hard  words  on display  aplenty  for  any  electorate  or  democracy  to  learn  from.  At  least      in   order    to   see or  avert  future  pitfalls  and unnecessary  threats to  the much  needed political  stability  and   tranquility  that  our  political systems  need   nowadays.   Especially    with regard   to  the realization  of  our  societal  goals  of  creating  progress, peace  and  prosperity  for  the global  community in  the many  nations  that  make up  our present  comity  of  nations.

    Starting  with the  visit  of  the  two  high  government  officials  to  the Senate one  does  not  know  whether  to  clap  for  the  Senators or weep  for  them on the kind  of  home truths  the two officials  told  them  on the matters on  discussion during the visit.  The  Attorney  General  told  the lawmakers that  he  could  not  comment  on  a case  in court  because  that  would  be subjudice     and  unethical  as he is the prosecutor  and the case files    are  before  the court. The  SGF  told  the legislators  that government  revenue  has  dwindled  by  50%  because  of falling  oil  prices and  government  will  have  to  scrutinize  and reexamine projects  to  fund  or  execute  in the approved  budget including  the  constituency  projects  of  the senators. This  is like  saying that  government  will  have  to cut its  coat according  to  its  cloth  and  present revenue.   Which  actually  is  just  plain  common  or  political  pragmatism.

    Actually  one should    be  bothered  that  it  required  the presence of these  two  officers  to tell  the  Senators  these  obvious  home truths. Anyway,  it  does  not  need  a political  scientist  or  these  two  key  government  officials  to  see  what  is  making  the senators  blind  to  what  is lost  in  plain  sight  to  them.  This    is because   Senate  is    said  to  be contemplating  constitutional  immunity    for   the   office  of  the Senate  President  even  as  the incumbent  is  facing  two  cases  being  prosecuted  by the  Attorney  General. Definitely  this senate  has exposed itself  to  charges of intimidation in  summoning the key    legal   officer  of  the nation prosecuting  the incumbent  of the office  of  Senate  President . Also  the senate  is tampering with  the rule  of law  and the  separation  of  powers  that  guide  and protect  our  democracy  and that was what  the AGF   told  them  so  bravely and  so  eloquently on his  visit . Really  it  was in  bad  taste  to  have  summoned  these    two  officials  on the issues  at  hand  and the senate  has  cut  a   rather  sorry  figure in  the public  domain  given  the hard  and incontrovertible  facts of governance, law  and order  that the two  officials  reeled  out  to    the   red  chamber  which   actually  received   tutorials  on  the occasions.

    To  a large  extent   then,  the issue  of  the execution  of a mandate  of  Brexit   by   the   new  British    PM   falls   into  a similar  excursion  into  the realms  of  hard  facts   and  home  truths. Very  similar  to  what the  two  high  government  officials  dropped  like  bombs  on our  senate. Scotland  on record in the referendum that  gave rise  to Brexit,  voted  to  remain  in the EU . Just as it  voted in 2014  to  remain  in  the UK.  Also  the new  PM was  for Remain  although  it is mandatory   and imperative   for  her to pursue Brexit  because  that  was  the wish  of the British  people  on  the relationship  with the EU. But  then two former  PMs  namely  Tony  Blair and John  Major  had  predicted  that Brexit  would divide  the UK because  Scotland  would  break  away.  That   really  is the  implication of the Scotland’s     First  Secretary  challenge  that  Scotland  did  not  give  the new PM the  mandate for  Brexit  as  she  has  claimed in terms  of execution  of the Brexit  victory  in  the  EU referendum.  In  effect then Scotland is asking  the new  PM who supported  Scotland’s Remain  vote not  to  be more  catholic  than  the  Pope  in  the implementation  of    Brexit.  The    alternative    therefore  is  to  allow Scotland  to  review  is  membership  of  the UK by  calling for  another referendum  so  soon after  the last  one in 2014. Which  really  is a  tall  order indeed in  terms    of  the  unity of  Great Britain.

    Meanwhile  there is no  denying  that a victim and culprit  of  the Brexit vote  is the new Foreign  Minister  Boris  Johnson  who was the arrow  head of  the Brexit  clamour which claimed  the referendum.  It  was  widely  thought  he  would be PM if  Brexit  won  but  the situation  has changed  such  that the acrimony that  greeted  the Brexit    result  meant  that  he had  to take  cover  and was indeed  lucky  to have  been  given  a cabinet  position.  Even  that  has not  gone well  in  European diplomatic  circles  as  both the French  and  German Foreign  Ministers  have  gone out of their way to  call  the new UK  Foreign  Minister  a serial   liar   given  his  vocal  and active role  in  the Brexit  campaign. It  will  be interesting  therefore    to see   how  the subsequent  and inevitable  diplomatic  meetings   between  the three  nations will  go   and  how  that  will  affect  EU  and  UK  relations  post  Brexit.

    Finally  we  shall  look  at the Obama speech  at  the Dallas  memorial  for the five slain policemen  killed  ostensibly by a black  man who said  he killed them  because  they  were  white  and white  policemen  had  been  killing  blacks. R  eally  President  Barak  Obama deserved  kudos  for  the home truths  he  drove  home on  the incident. He  asked  Americans to  open  their minds to  each  other  and change  the  hearts of stone fanning  racial  hatred  .  He  said  he  knows  what  is  happening  and he  sounded credible  and more  believable than  anyone  I have   heard   speak  on  racism . He  said  it  was a fact  of  life in the US  that  blacks  are  being  killed  more  than  any  other  race  but that is no excuse  for  killing  policemen  because  the police  is the  emblem  of  the rule of  law in any  democracy including  the US. He praised  the  Dallas Police  Department  and  the City  Mayor  but  he  also  weighed  in that something  needs  to  be done urgently  on  gun  control  which  has  become a major  campaign  issue  in the on  going  presidential  campaign  in  the  US.

    To  me  the  Dallas  Memorial   speech  should   define  the  Obama  presidency  as well  as his legacy. Rather  than  the gay  rights issue  which  he called  the major  achievement  of  his   administration. Although  his record  on  the international  scene  is  dismal  as  he  has served  as a president with  no  stomach  for  confrontation  and  the use  of  force  to resolve international   issues. Opting  most  times  for dialogue  and  diplomacy   But  it  was  clear  that on  race  issues   that   he was a very  competent  high  priest  of tolerance and  respect  for  human  dignity in racial  relations. That  is a good  legacy  for Hillary  Clinton  to  campaign  on  if  she wants  to  succeed  him  as the next  president  of  the US.  Not  a foreign  policy  that spawned Islamic  State and made  Russia  take over  Syria from  where  the  largest  migration of people fleeing  war  in  history  was  created.

    Let  me end  by dedicating this  piece to  the  15th  of  July  which  was my  birthday. Once  again  long  live the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Global peace, leadership and democracy

    The  travails  of former  British Prime Minister  Tony  Blair on the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and  the Chilcot  Report  which came out on that this week provides  good  food  for thought  on  today’s  topic. With  regard to  Blair’s role in the Iraq War  and his spirited  defence  of it,  one  can  easily  quote Shakespeare’s  Mark  Anthony in Julius  Caesar  that   ‘the evil that  men  do  lives  after  them, the good  is oft  interred  in their bones ‘  – although this time, Blair,   unlike  Caesar,  is still  very  much  alive   to  defend  himself.

    Similarly  the  FBI Report  on Hillary Clinton’s  use  of  her cell  phone for official  duty and the charge  that she compromised  security  in  the  process is worth  looking    today.  This  is even  more pertinent  in that the FBI  boss  said her action  was  ‘extremely  reckless ‘but  security  had  not  been  compromised; a  conclusion which  prompted  the controversial Republican  presidential    candidate  Donald  Trump  to  not  only  cry  foul  but  to predictably  go  on  to say  that the system  has  been ‘rigged‘.

    My  goal  here  today  is that to  show  how  world  leaders  have  behaved  in contemporary times  as  a result  of  the Iraqi  invasion,  for which Tony  Blair  is being   chastised   today  and  in the  light  of  the  global  chain  of  events  set  in motion   by  that  historical  and  important  invasion in  all  its  ramifications. To  say  that  the end  of that  invasion – and  the ensuing  global  blood  letting,  mass   migration  by  those  fleeing  war    and   the    mayhem ensuing therefrom   – is not  yet  in  sight,   could   be  an  understatement.    Indeed   its effect  on the world’s democracies, leadership  and  threat  to world  peace  are  still  unfolding    right  before  our  eyes.

    Here  in  Nigeria  and   to  me  the  horror  of  Boko  Haram  stemmed  from the  Iraqi  invasion   and  the war  on terrorism  arising  from 9/11  that  brought  terrorism  to our  doorsteps  and  ravaged our entire  North  East  with  impunity  and perfidy.  Until  the  advent  of  the present Buhari  Administration which  came on  board in the presidential  election of  2015.

    It may    seem  far –fetched    but  the  present  war on  corruption  embarked  on  by  the Buhari  administration  is a blood  relationship  of  sorts with the   Iraqi  Invasion.  This  is because  of   the sordid  revelations on  massive  diversion  of  funds  for  arms  –  meant   for  prosecution  of  the war against  Boko  Haram  by  past  military  leaders – into their  pockets,  and diversion  of  funds  by  key  members  of  the last  Jonathan  administration  for  campaigns   for  the  last  presidential  elections which  they  lost.  But for  the  fact  that  the PDP  lost  the presidential  elections  of  2015  there  was  no  way  that  Nigerians  could  have known  that  the office  of  the  National  Security  Adviser  was  using  money  meant  to  buy arms  to defeat  Boko  Haram, which  was steadily  killing Nigerians  and pillaging  our  North  East bloodily,  to  fund   the  party in  power.  While  at  the same time the  military  Chief  of  Staff  of  the regime  court  marshaled officers  and  men  who  refused  to  go to war  because of inferior arms  and ammunition supplied them by  their  superiors.  Only  for  us   to find  out  after  a change  of  government  that the same Chief of  Staff  was  collecting budget  allocation  meant  to  buy  planes  and ammunition  in  cash, and  was  using  the money  to buy houses  and  malls  for his family  and sons  in  Abuja.

    So in  effect  then  Tony  Blair’s  actions  and  inactions  pointed  out  in  the Chilcot  Report  have  reverberated  violently  into  Nigeria in  another  dimension  and  in a very  different  context  in terms of  Boko  Haram   terrorism  and  an  irresponsible way and  leadership  available  to  confront  it   till  power  changed  hands  in  2015.

     In spite  of this however Tony  Blair  is a leader  I  hold  in  great  esteem  as a strong leader and I believe  him  when  he said  on the Chilcot Report  that  he  acted  in  good  faith.  Really  I  wonder  how  and  what  his  detractors  expected  him  to  have  done. This  is  because he and George Bush  acted   bravely  and  swiftly  after 9/11  to  hit  back  at Al  Qada  and  that in  a way preserved  world  peace.  Whereas  the Pacifists  and  anarchists in both  Britain  and  the US  would    then    would  have  wanted peace  to  prevail  at  all  costs.  And  that  would have  made   the momentum  of retaliation and deterrence  they  unleashed  against  their enemies to  lapse  into  a vacuum  of inaction through  vacillations on the proper  and lawful  way  to  react . As if  terrorists  give  notice before    bombing  or  ask for anyone’s  permission before  killing  people.

     War, like  change  and an  abrupt  one  like  9/11  or  the Iraqi  Invasion  two  years  later in 2003,  can  not  be planned  and  managed like a corporate  strategic plan as it  is unpredictable  in  nature  and  execution. If  Blair  is to be blamed for acting on false information  on  availability of weapons  of  mass destruction, it  was because as a good  leader  he  has accepted  responsibility.  But   what  of  the military intelligence  chiefs  who  gave him  the information he  acted  on? Or  the  sissy military  top  brass  who  could  not  engineer the logistics and  strategy  to  move equipment  and materiel   to  Iraq  as the Americans  did  so  efficiently  in the first  Gulf  War  under George  Bush  senior?

    Indeed,  the  Chilcot  Report  may have found Blair  guilty on  the excuse for  invasion but  I  have  no doubt  in my mind that history will recognize his leadership qualities  and  patriotism as  well  as  his democratic  sense of  responsibility in  carrying  Parliament  and the opposition along. As  I  vividly  recall,  William  Hague, the Tory Opposition  leader then said  boldly  in  Parliament  that ‘this  opposition  stands  shoulder  to shoulder with  the PM in  ratifying the invasion of  Iraq.

     Great  leaders  take responsibility  and act as, and when needed and their decisions are the stuff  of  history.  Not  the admonitions  of a  red   tape  report like the Chilcot Report which  is just  an  administrative  and convenient  sign  post of observations  of   past  events  and actions.  A  mere  dossier  of  actions    taken by  political  actors  like Blair  who  wield  power  and are  bold  enough  to  accept  responsibility  for  their  actions in  the course  of  their duty.  Public  opinion which  is like  fashion  and  therefore  transient  may  cut,  them  to  size  or  ridicule their  actions. Yet  it  is  history  not  such hullabaloo like  the one roasting  Blair  with the  release  of  this Chilcot  Report, is the final  and  ultimate  arbiter  and judge of  their  actions while in  office.

    Which  brings  us to  the FBI  boss‘s categorization of  Hillary  Clinton’s  handling  of  her e- mails  as  extremely  reckless  and her being  cleared  of any  wrong  doing  in spite of such  strong  language on  her responsibility  as Secretary  of  State. I  know  that  Donald  Trump  has a reputation  for  reckless  language  and has  heated  the political  system  extravagantly  in the course  of  this 2016   US  presidential  election.  But  if  all  that  Trump  could  down load  this time is that  the system  is rigged because the FBI  cleared Hillary in  spite  of her ‘extreme  carelessness‘,  then Trump  has  not  said  anything  out  of place but  the real  truth.  How  can  someone be extremely  careless  like  Hillary,  and not  breach  security  one way  or  the other given  the weight  of  her  responsibility  as Secretary  of State?. Trump  of  course  said that  her  phone  could have been  hacked  and that  too is  a possibility – with  the attendant  danger posed  to  American  diplomacy  and security  consequently.

     Obviously  if  the party in  power  had  not  been Hillary’s  party  and if the President  had  not been  Barak  Obama,  who  is campaigning   for  her,   there  is  no way  that  Hillary  could  have  been  allowed  to  contest  for  the 2016  US presidency,  given   the description  of the FBI  that  her  handling of  her e-  mail  was extremely  reckless. That  is the home  truth  on  this matter  and it  does  not  need  a Donald  Trump  to  bring that to  the attention of the US public  and electorate  because they are  neither  deaf, blind  or  that plain  stupid.  Once  again long  live  the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • New global checkpoints for leadership and public mood

    From  the shock  of  Brexit  in  the UK  referendum on its membership of  the EU to  the word   of  caution to North  American leaders  by  US  President  Barak  Obama on the electability of  Donald Trump  as US  president  in the 2016 presidential  elections, it is obvious that new global  standards  are emerging  to  judge  governance  and  democracies  globally. Even  in  Nigeria  where  the honeymoon beetween  the   Buhari  Administration   and    the   Nigerian   people is getting  sour   on  the   promised  change, but  for the popular war  against  corruption, it  is  apparent  that  the legislature  is at logger  heads with   the    with   executive  and    the public   mood  is simply   apprehensive on the outcome.  This  is  apparent from  the brickbats from  both sides on the on going  trial  of  the Senate  President  and   his Deputy  as  well  as the language  of  the Secretary  to the government  in  condemning  calls  for a consideration  of  the Report  of the last  National  Conference in the  last Administration  on  the Restructuring  of  Nigeria.

    Brexit  has already  taken   its toll  in terms of  leadership  tussles in  both  the Labor  Party  and  the ruling Conservative  Party  whose leader and  PM  David  Cameron  has  resigned over  the Brexit  result.  More  importantly  the  main  champion  of  the  Brexit  challenge and success Boris  Johnson  has   chickened out  of  the succession  race  for Tory  leadership. Ostensibly  because he   sensed,  and  rightly   too,   that   he will  lose  the  leadership    tussle   as    he  will   be  made a scapegoat  for  the current lamentation  in  Britain in voting  to quit  the EU,   albeit  with  a close referendum  result   of 51%  to  48%  for  Remain.

     As  for the Labor  Party, they  are  virtually  leaderless  as the Parliamentary  caucus  has passed  a vote  of  no  confidence in Labor  Leader  Jeremy  Corbyn.   Although the leader  has refused to resign even  as  contestants  are coming out to  challenge  for  a leadership  position  that is yet  to be vacated  by  the  Labor  leader. Obviously  the  public  mood in  Britain is that  of  resent  over  the vote  for  Brexit but  there is  no denying that the resentment that  led to  the victory of  Brexit  centred  on  frustration  with  the government  and  leadership  of the nation  especially  on  the issue of immigration  and the inevitability  of free movement  inherent in the concept  of a Single  Market  that the EU  represents. In  effect  then the  British  people  can  be compared    on   Brexit  with   the state  of   George  Foreman when  he  recovered from  the knock  out punch  that  Muhammed   Ali  unleashed in the 7TH   round   of  the Rumble  in  the  Jungle  in  Zaire  to  win their  World   Heavy weight Championship  bout.  Foreman  disputed  the count  down  of  ten  because  he has  been  dazed  and  briefly   out of touch  with this world, till  he was counted out mandatorily at  10.  That   was   the state  akin    to  political  stupor   and  quandary  that  the British  found  themselves,  reeling from   the upper  cut they  received from  the Brexit  verdict  on the EU  membership  on  June 23, 2016.

    Since  the Brexit  occurred before  US  President Barak  Obama went on his tour  of North  America  this  week   it  was  pertinent  that  he  should  allay  fears  that the Brexit  roller  coaster  resentment in  Britain  would   not  happen in the  2016  US  presidential  election.   He did  this  with  his usual brilliant  rhetoric that  is nowadays  losing touch  with  the reality  of  his  legacy. Obama  who  had asked the British in vain  not to  leave  the EU   lamented  that  the  world  has  been  seized  with populist  leaders  and ideas.  Such ideas he labeled as nativism, xenophobia and  cynicism.

    It  was not  difficult  to know  that  he   was referring to  Donald  Trump  and his quest  for the US presidency.  When  however the leaders of  Mexico  and  Canada  with  him started  saying  negative  things about  Donald  Trump,   the  same US president  called  them  to  order  and said  they should  be careful  because they will   have  to  deal  with  him  if  he wins the 2016 US  presidential  election. Which  really is the harsh  possibility  that  the Obama  legacy  has dealt  the American  people  and is the albatross that  Hillary  Clinton  has  to  carry  even  though the  US president  who  supports Hillary  and  has been  campaigning  for  her,  has  no  doubt  that Donald  Trump   could defeat  Hillary  in  the 2016  elections  as he said  candidly  in Canada   this week.

    In  addition the  US president  went  on like the proverbial  ostrich  with its  head  buried in  the sand to  say  that globalization  has  come  to  stay. This  is in spite   of   the loss of  US jobs because of globalization and world trade   and which   Donald    Trump   has railed    against. This    certainly  has  made Donald  Trump  popular  with  US  workers     and    the  masses   whose jobs  have been outsourced   to  China and India because of cheap labor  and lower  costs.  Yet  Obama  insisted  that the global  economic integration  of  national  economies is here  and now,  and is  here  to  stay.  That  is what  Trump  has  promised  to  remove  to  bring  relief  to  US workers  and   voters  who  feel  betrayed  by such globalization  and trade  practices.  Such  fears  fuelled  the consummation  of   the   Brexit   victory  in  Britain  and there  is no reason  that such  will  not  torpedo Donald  Trump  to victory  in the US if this is  really   the mind set of  the Hillary political  campaign, propelled  as it  is,  by  the Obama  legacy  and support.

    Similarly  in  Nigeria the incompetence  of  the last Jonathan  propelled  the  Buhari adminstration  to power  on  the slogan  of  change in  2015.  Unfortunately  the  administration  has  not  moved fast enough  to  make  life  better  for  the average  Nigerian. Indeed  the fuel  price  increase  has singularly  made life  worse in terms  of  eking  out  a living  for  the  average Nigerian.  This  is the  bitter  truth.  Yet  the  same Nigerian  has  not  lost  faith  in the leadership of  this  administration  simply  because  of  the war on  corruption  to  sanitise our  polity  and economy.  In  addition  the Nigerian  people  are  with  the government in  the prosecution  of  the leadership  of  the Senate in both  the false declaration  of  assets  case  and  the leadership elections  rule  forgery  case. Nigerians  see  the two  cases  as the sign  that the rule of law is in place and no  Nigerian  no matter  how  highly placed  is  above  the law. Nigerians are  no strangers  to  the  concept  of  separation of  powers and  are  not  befuddled  by  the charge  of interference in the affairs  of  the  senate  by  the defendants. Nigerians  would  love to see the trial  to a logical  conclusion  so  as to mete  out punishment  that will deter  such misdemeanor  in the legislative  chambers.

    In   addition  the government  should  have another  look at  the issue  of restructuring and mind its language in  dismissing  what is not  on  its  programme  for  now to  execute.  For  a Secretary to the Government to  say  that  he cannot find time to  read a Conference Report of the magnitude in question is lazy,  unprofessional, and  shows  scant  respect  for  delegation with  responsibility in managing the affairs  of  state. Journalists   and   Social  Scientists  can talk of  job  for the boys.  It  does  not sound nice on the lips of  a very  high  government  official  like the present Secretary to  the government.

    The  world  has become a global  village and Nigerians know  what  is going  on in the world  and have high  expectations  of  their  leaders and those in  governance  as at  this  point  in  time. As  Brexit  has  shown  no  government  is  above  the wishes of  the people  once  the opportunity  to  make their  choice is before  them. The  times  have  changed and so  have Nigerians   who  expect  their  government  to  put  food on their tables and provide security at all  times to  change  their  lives  for  the better,  as  promised – just  last  year.  Once  again  long  live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.