It is not accidental that the last threes installments of this column have focused on Professor Yemi Osinbajo’s presidential aspiration come 2023. His significance in the race arises from the singular fact that he has been Vice-President for seven years under President Muhammadu Buhari and he himself has predicated his qualification to succeed his boss primarily on the experience he has garnered in office at the national level since 2015.

President Buhari is no economist and he does not pretend to be one. The main characteristic of his leadership style that is widely known is his complete delegation of responsibilities to his appointees to various offices and his almost absolute trust in their capacity to serve loyally and competently. Within that context, for instance, Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), Minister of Works and Housing and Mr Rotimi Amaechi, Minister of Transportation, are readily the poster boys of the administration in terms of service delivery in their spheres of responsibility. Not so Vice President Osinbajo who, as constitutionally designated Chairman of the National Economic Council (NEC), comprising all the state governors and the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has had immense opportunity to make significant input into and positively affect economic policy with negligible impact.

True, no government in my view, in this dispensation at least, has pumped as much funds as the Buhari administration has in Social Intervention Programmes to alleviate poverty,  there is no evidence of a serious scientific tracking of such expenditures to ensure that they got to the designated targets or achieved an appreciable measure of the desired effects. Ever since I was a secondary school student in the 1970s through my university days up till now, Nigeria has almost always been in one form of economic crisis or recession despite humongous amounts reaped from crude oil revenue windfalls at various times. Nothing fundamentally has changed in terms of substance or style in the management of the Nigerian economy since military President, General Ibrahim Babangida introduced the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986. Things cannot continue this way. We cannot continue to do the same thing and expect a different outcome. There must be a drastic change in the course, direction and engineering of Nigeria’s political economy as from May next year.

It is unfortunate that, even as Nigeria is at one of the most dire and dangerous turns in her post-independence history, there has been more focus in public discourse on the ethnicity, region, religion or age of the next President than his competence and ideas for the transformation of the country. There must be fresh economic thinking in the dispensation after Buhari and one aspirant who, in my view, has shown the slightest inkling in that direction is the frontline presidential aspirant of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

Along with Mr Brian Browne, Asiwaju Tinubu had in 2013 co-authored a book titled ‘Financialism: Water from an Empty Well’ in which they X-rayed the economies of the United States and Nigeria, analyzed the challenges confronting them and proffered policy options to attain the greatest happiness for the greatest number of the people of both countries. A former Consul-General of the US in Nigeria, Browne had a reasonable acquaintance with the operations of the Nigerian economy while Tinubu, who had schooled and worked in a number of corporations in America before returning home to rise to the position of Treasurer of Mobil Oil, before being elected as governor of Lagos State also had considerable knowledge of the workings of the economies of both countries.

The critical importance of the book is its demonstration that, despite their disparities in wealth, power and opportunities, both countries are afflicted by poverty of potent policy options that can promote equity and prosperity for the vast majority of their peoples with Nigeria being, understandably, the worst affected. It boldly challenges economic orthodoxies particularly the plague of ‘Financialism’ in which finance speculators invest in ever increasingly exotic financial instruments to accumulate more and more money from such speculative activity rather than investment in tangible productive endeavors. I am no economist but even as a layman, I cannot understand the logic of an economy in which banks and other financial and investment outfits in Nigeria declare ever increasing profits annually even as de-industrialization deepens, unemployment soars and poverty worsens. Matters are complicated by a debilitating security crisis that negatively impacts agricultural productivity spurring food scarcity and price volatility.

There is hardly space here for a lengthy discussion of the sometimes contentious issues raised in the book. But the point is that a presidential aspirant in next year’s election, Tinubu, has made ideas a focal point of his intervention in public discourse ever since he left office in 2007 and others must follow this lead in the national interest especially in the campaigns towards the next election. Decrying the fact that Nigeria never fully industrialized before embracing ‘Financialism’, the authors lament that virtually all the development plans adopted by various administrations in this dispensation tend to be “bureaucratic squibbles” which constitute obstacles on the path of the implementation of any strategic economic vision. They note that these plans list every conceivable economic issue but prioritize none pointing out that no country can simultaneously do everything listed in these economic plans.

The authors thus advocate a meaningful  national industrial policy that will return Nigeria to the path of concrete production with set priorities lying along the path of national development. Rather than adhering to the advice of institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO), for example, which advocate free trade and open borders without restriction, they stress the need for measures to protect the country’s few existing industries through, for instance, tax, energy production and export credits, to insulate these ventures. Noting that industries that used to thrive and provide jobs in various parts of the country have vanished, they call for a reduction of duties enacted on imported items needed for these industries to operate and the enactment of direct tariff protection if necessary to halt the continued erosion of the country’s industrial base. They also believe that guaranteed loans, tax holidays and power-generating subsidies are forms of government support that can help the revival of factories that recently closed because of high operating costs.

Of course, the book also deals in detail with policy proposals on filling the massive infrastructure gap, increasing electrical power generation to reduce the costs of industrial production and seeking foreign investment especially of the type that produces jobs for Nigerians. It proposes the deliberate nurturing by government of new ventures in light manufacturing such as textile and garment production that can be worked by relatively low-skilled Labour force. “Rather than abandoning its re-industrialization agenda to market forces and beyond promulgating rules that make Nigeria “investment friendly”, the government must identify specific investors, then negotiate detailed agreements with these investors such that they can see a reasonable profit potential in their investment while Nigeria can ensure the enhanced employment, increased production of goods and other benefits that she seeks” the authors aver.

While the policy options focused on above deal with aspects of the proposed National Industrial Policy for Nigeria, there is also the National Agricultural Policy, for instance, which emphasizes a shift from subsistence to commercial farming to the extent possible, the establishment of commodity exchange boards that guarantee minimum prices for farm produce and other initiatives that will give farmers a guaranteed minimum price for farm produce and ensure that their products will be purchased at a minimum price making farming more attractive as income becomes less erratic. Other detailed policy options for a resurgent Nigeria explored in the book include a National Educational Policy, Financial Sector Reform, Fiscal Reform, Land Tenure Reform, National Health Policy and ECOWAS and Sub-Regional Integration among others.

I recently came across a reprint of an article first published in 2015 in which an acute and informed economic mind, Mr Tope Fasua, had commented on Tinubu’s interventions in public discourse in his policy advices to successive governments since leaving public office in 2007. Mr Fasua referred, as a reference point, to Tinubu’s plea with the Dr Goodluck Jonathan administration in 2014 that “…In the face of recessionary headwinds, government should run counter cyclical fiscal policy by using its Naira sovereignty to fund fiscal deficits. This deficit is not simply for the sake of running a deficit; the funds cannot be spent on unproductive matters. It must be used to fuel infrastructural and other projects that not only employ great numbers of people but enhance the overall productivity of the economy…Inflation is the major risk of running budget deficits to spur growth. We can contain inflation to acceptable levels by ensuring additional government expenditures are for items that can be supplied domestically, particularly Labour. Naira paid to poor and working class people mostly circulates in the domestic economy, spurring local commerce and production…This is because their consumption patterns do not approach the level of import expenditures associated with their wealthier compatriots. Related to this, we must decrease our level of superfluous imports”.

And what was the reaction of Tope Fasua to Tinubu’s submission here? His words: “Very few commentators in our milieu speak on such hard facts as these. Tinubu is the only one I know who has dared to broach the issue of Naira sovereignty. Most of the ‘revered’ economic intellectuals in this space would never dare. Their brains are probably Americanized to the Dollar. Let me explain. For some reason, our yearly national budgets is based on the price of crude oil and how much dollars we intend to get therefrom. The only revenue assumption on our yearly budget is crude oil. This means our thinking is externalized. Those who run our governments feel helpless and dependent on foreigners to solve our problems. But sovereign countries should never depend on the availability of other people’s currencies in order to plan their lives. It should NEVER be said that Nigeria cannot pay the salaries of government workers just because there is no dollar to convert to Naira. The stability of our economy should not be so tightly linked with the price of crude oil. Nobody has engaged Tinubu on this statement. They just behave like he didn’t say it. I would want to hear opposing positions…We may not print the Naira into perpetuity, but we cannot be locked into a single option of ‘dollar-standard’ says Tinubu. And I agree”.

Tinubu’s contribution to elevating the quality of our public discourse has been severely undervalued. Let the 2023 presidential election campaigns be on the developmental challenges that constitute serious existential threats to the country particularly the economy.

It was a categorical, unqualified and unambiguous declaration. Speaking during a recent visit to the Bayelsa State Council of Traditional Rulers in Yenagoa, the state capital, in continuation of his ongoing consultations as regards his 2023 presidential aspiration, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, stated unequivocally that he is the most prepared of all aspirants in the race. In his words, “I will say of all the contestants, and I will say so most humbly, clearly that I am the most prepared to hit the ground running. I will be ready on the first day of the assignment because I have seven years training; I have the experience”. Professor Osinbajo, therefore, stakes his claim on being the best aspirant to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in office next year on the experience he has acquired as number two man in the former’s administration.

Supporting Osinbajo’s contention, a political cum civic organization, which tags itself the ‘IdentifytheRightLeader group’, in a 120-page publication titled ‘Osinbajo Impact Assessment’ affirms that “From an expert point of view, the IdentifytheRightLeader group argues unequivocally based on verifiable and incontestable impacts that Professor Yemi Osinbajo without fear or favor is best to lead in Nigeria in 2023 if empowered”. The group bases its assessment on Osinbajo’s role and performance as Commissioner of Justice and Attorney General of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007, his performance as Vice President from 2015 till date as well as his short stints as Acting President during President Buhari’s absence from office in June, 2016, January and May, 2017 and August 2018.

Perhaps subtly conceding that Osinbajo’s competence and capacity could not be credibly ascertained by his role as Vice President, the group writes that “It is discovered that the Office of Vice President constrained Osinbajo’s capacity to perform owing to his constitutional limitations, but his intellectualism and capacity were best expressed as Attorney General of Lagos State and as Acting President of Nigeria”. It lists the far-reaching justice sector reforms undertaken in Lagos State during Tinubu’s tenure in office as governor between 1999 and 2007 as evidence of Osinbajo’s competence and capacity in discharging the responsibilities of public office. The problem is that Osinbajo was not the head of government in Lagos State. He was a political appointee of a governor who valued intellect and professionalism and assembled a team of proven experts in their respective fields to head different ministerial portfolios. Given Tinubu’s visionary and inspirational leadership and his array of contacts in the legal profession, there is no reason to believe that he could not have found any number of other brilliant legal minds who would have performed equally exemplarily had he not chosen to offer Osinbajo the job.

The governor’s leadership was thus key to Osinbajo’s perceived performance in implementing the state’s Justice sector reforms as well as leading the state’s fight for the rights of states in the lopsided Nigerian federation, a struggle to which Tinubu was passionately committed. Even as the IdentifytheRightLeader group notes “When Yemi Osinbajo was appointed the Attorney General of Lagos State in June 1999, he started reforming the entire judiciary with strong support from the state governor”. Writing of the governor’s role in the actualization of the Justice sector reforms, Mr Fola Arthur-Worrey, Solicitor-General and Permanent Secretary in the Lagos State Ministry of Justice during Osinbajo’s tenure stated in a 2012 publication, “Without his rare approach a lot would not have been achieved. And it is important to point out that with his encouragement, all reform proposals were subjected to rigorous scrutiny by members of his cabinet under his relentless urging and many were modified or completely abandoned when their templates did not fit practical realities”.

In any case, Osinbajo was a competent performer as Attorney General just as most other cabinet members were on top of their game in their respective offices. For instance, Mr Wale Edun, the Finance Commissioner, played an invaluable role in rejuvenating the finances of the state. Ogbeni Raufu Aregbesola, Commissioner for Works, was exemplary in the radical modernization of road infrastructure. Mr Olayemi Cardoso, Commissioner of Economic Planning and Budget, was central to drawing up the administration’s developmental agenda and maintaining the budgetary discipline critical to achieving success. Mr Tunji Bello, Commissioner for the Environment, was indispensable in the rescue and systematic turn around of an environment that had become a health hazard and death trap particularly with the intractable menace of refuse and incessant flooding.

Dr Leke Pitan, Commissioner of Health, was a star performer in his Ministry, with his initiation of far reaching health sector reforms and implementation of diverse health programmes as a key component of the administration’s poverty alleviation agenda. Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), Chief of Staff and Commissioner in the governor’s office, added immense value to governance. But the mastermind who assembled, coordinated and inspired  the team with his vision and passion was the governor. There is no doubt that as Vice President, Professor Osinbajo, had a wider latitude to exercise his authority and positively impact governance despite the perceived constitutional limitations of the office. Did he maximally utilize such opportunity? It is difficult to answer this question affirmatively. Constitutionally, the Vice President is the Chairman of the National Economic Council (NEC), which has state governors and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as members.

According to the Constitution, “The National Economic Council shall have power to advise the President concerning the economic affairs of the Federation, and in particular on measures necessary for the coordination of the economic planning efforts or economic programmes of the various governments of the federation”. This offers considerable opportunities for the occupant of the office to mobilize and coordinate the governors and other key stakeholders in the management of the economy such as the CBN to enhance economic performance through creative, out-of-the-box thinking particularly in the critical area of revenue generation. The IdentifytheRightLeader group credits Professor Osinbajo, as Chairman of the influential  Economic Sustainability Committee (ESC), with initiating sub-Saharan Africa’s largest Social Investment Programmes in 2016.

Under the National Social Investment Programmes, which comprises such initiatives as the Homegrown School Feeding Programme, the poverty alleviation loans such as Marketmoni, FarmerMoni and TraderMoni, N-Power programme and National Cash Transfer programme among others, over N140 billion has been released with more than 9 million beneficiaries so far. But what impact has this had on the country’s poverty indices? What measures were put in place to ensure that these monies actually gets to the targeted beneficiaries and check diversion of the funds? The group states further that as a result of these initiatives including the Micro- Small-Medium-Enterprises Survival Fund well as other interventions, the Nigerian economy by the end of 2019 had recorded four quarters of consecutive growth of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and showed a consistent 2.55 percent growth in 2019. Again, as a result of the launch of the ESP, the country’s agriculture sector was said to have grown by 3.42% in the fourth quarter of 2020 when measured against the same quarter in 2019.

These may be impressive statistics especially when the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic and the plummeting of international oil prices in 2014 with the attendant economic devastation is factored into the equation. But then, the country has experienced the phenomenon of growth without development under practically every administration since 1999. Could we not have engaged in fresh, creative thinking under the present administration to break out of this developmental stagnation conundrum? Even then, one of the acts of President Buhari after his reelection in 2019 was to remove the Social Intervention Programme from the supervisory purview of Professor Osinbajo and create a new Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management to which the functions and personnel of the SIP were transferred. That could not have been a sign of confidence and satisfaction in the way programme was previously managed.

No matter how limited his constitutional powers may be such that he can undertake only tasks assigned to him by the President, the Vice President is a member of the Federal Executive Council (FEC), the highest decision-making body of the federal government. As a distinguished intellectual with a track record of participation in legal struggles for true federalism as Attorney General of Lagos State, is Osinbajo on record in the minutes as proffering robust ideas and arguments at the FEC meetings in support of federalist principles, inclusive governance, fundamentally overhauling the security architecture and other shortcomings for which the administration of which he is a part has been severely criticized? Or has he kept his peace playing the loyalty game to be in the good books of influential power brokers to facilitate his succeeding his boss in office next year?

The statements and speeches emanating from Osinbajo’s office in the last seven years have been largely routine, predictable, pro-establishment pronouncements no different from the policy prescriptions of various governments in the last 20 years that have only worsened the problems of underdevelopment in Nigeria. Osinbajo is a quintessential systems man. The country does not need a bureaucratic establishment leader after President Buhari. What Nigeria needs in 2023 is a leadership with the kind of audacious thinking and revolutionary vision that conceptualized the phenomenal Eko Atlantic City in Lagos springing up magnificently from the belly of the ocean and on which the United States is currently constructing what will be its largest embassy in the world or the ongoing massive transformation of the Lekki axis of Lagos through the Lekki Free Trade Zone where the Dangote refinery, which will be the largest in the world is cited; a facility that the entire country is eagerly awaiting.

• This article was first published May 7, 2022