Category: Saturday

The number of presidential aspirants for next year’s election is the highest in the history of Nigeria. It is made up of few real contenders and many pretenders. What should distinguish them should be their programmes. But, there is no focus on their vision and plans for the distressed country.

Personality seems to have overshadowed issues. There is more emphasis on power retention in the North and power shift to the South. It is a period of ego, betrayal, intra-party strife and antagonism. At the primary, the wheat shall be separated from the chaff. But, the question also may be what manner of primary.

For now, few people will choose for the two parties. The electorate will then, decide on who should wear the crown and shoulder the national burden.

In the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), no fewer than 17 started the race. Two dropped out after failing screening. Out of the 15, eyes are not more than three. But, if any of the three emerges, he will still need the support of others in one way or the other.

Instructively, the race is not open to all members in the two parties. It is highly restricted to rich chieftains. It was possible that the mention of N50 nomination form in PDP had discouraged a number of chieftains. It is worse in the APC, which sold its form for N100 million.

In the PDP are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar,  a veteran aspirant; former Senate President Bukola Saraki and Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike. Others are Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, and his Bauchi and Akwa Ibom counterparts-Senator Bala Mohammed and Udom Emmanuel; banker Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, businessman Sam Ohunabunwa, former Ekiti State Governor Ayodele Fayose, former Senate President Pius Anyim, and former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi.

Experience and loyalty to the party are factors common to them. But, if structure, popularity, networks, and money are determinants, only the first three are in contention.

The top contender is Atiku, Waziri of Adamawa, an irrepressible politician, who is somehow remote to some of his rivals in the race. When he was vice president, they were just starting their political careers. He looks unstoppable. But, he faces some hurdles as well, if the PDP governors are united in their bid to stop him. However, the governors are working at cross-purpose.

Atiku has turned attention to the neglected non-PDP states, where he has been sealing pacts with delegates. It appears that it is his last chance to seek the highest office. He is conscious of, and perhaps, relying on the prediction of Marabouts that he will one day become the president.

Abubakar Olusola Saraki symbolises variety, or diversity. He is a Northerner and more or less a Southerner at same time. His accent is purely Fulani or Hausa, like his two names-Abubakar and Saraki, in contrast with Bukola, which is a Yoruba name. Can he garner political capital from that racial dualism, if it is not misunderstood as identity crisis? Saraki, former governor of Kwara State, is a warrior of sorts; sharp, witty, resilient and brave. He is even perceived as a strategist in the major opposition party.

Wike, an advocate of zoning, has a deep purse. His contributions to the PDP cannot be ignored. He has made many friends in the party with his money. He has also attracted many foes due to his consistent indulgence in verbal warfare.

In terms of prospects, other aspirants can be categorised into four, based on their meagre strengths and weaknesses.

In the first category are the two governors-Tambuwal and Mohammed-who also have the golden opportunity to contest for other positions. There is a window of opportunity for the Sokoto governor to contest for Senate. If his party wins, he can become a principal officer. Mohammed is at liberty to re-contest for governor.

In the second category are renowned politicians like Ayim and Obi who may not succeed in attracting enough delegates to breast the tape. Their structures are not strong.

The third category is made up of technocrats- the banker and businessman. If the bulk of delegates are from Corporate Nigeria, then, Hayatu-Deen and Ohunabunwa may carry the day. How formidable are their structures within the platform?

The last category is made up of spectator-aspirants. It is their participation at the primary that will catapult them into limelight. They may contest for other lower-order positions in the future, using their current foray as stepping stone.

The PDP has been associated with two drama ahead of the primary. Northern PDP elders had picked two people, Saraki and Mohammed, as consensus candidates. It is a laughable. The impact of their endorsement during the primary will be nil. The delegates may not look up to the elders for leadership and direction during the exercise.

The second is the neglect of zoning. PDP has rejected power shift to the South. Will heaven fall? It is doubtful.

In the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), 26 are said to be eyeing Aso Villa, Abuja, the seat of government. It is understandable. APC is the ruling party and aspirants may have been fired by the feeling of electoral viability and power of incumbency. That power of incumbency can be strengthened by proper management of its primary. It can crumble if post-primary crisis is not averted.

Top on the list of contenders in the APC is Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State, national leader, party developer, bridge builder, loyal stalwart and dependable ally of President Muhammadu Buhari during the 2015 and 2019 elections. To the generality of party members, he is the aspirant to beat. A political warhorse, democrat and team player, he was the towering arrowhead before APC became the ruling party. He has continued to demonstrate political affection, love and unconditional positive regard to other contenders, knowing that he would still need them in the party’s collective effort to retain power beyond 2023.

The second set of aspirants is part and parcel of the Asiwaju political family:Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Ekiti State Governor Kayode Fayemi, Senator Ibikune Amosu, Senator Ajayi Boroffice, and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole. It is a moment of harrowing experience in the Southwest. Those who should ordinarily be part of Tinubu’s campaign train are trying to square up with their leader. In this electioneering, there is no coordinated Southwest agenda.

The second group is made up of Northern aspirants. It includes Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello, Senate President Ahmed Lawan, Kebbi State Governor Abubakar Badaru, and Senator Sani Yarima. The implication of their entry into the race is that APC may not adopt zoning.

The third is made of “unanticipated”aspirants. They are three: former President Goodluck Jonathan, Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele and African Development Bank President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina.

Jonathan’s entry into the race, if he eventually comes out, will unleash controversy. It will be a great tragedy and a monumental contradiction for APC to field him as an anointed or a consensus candidate. Who will break the news to party stakeholders?

The fourth is made up of aspirants from the Southeast, which has not fully embraced the ruling party, and Southsouth, where some gladiators with split followership have defected to the APC. Aspirants from the two contiguous zones include Ebonyi State Governor Dave Umahi, Senator Rochas Okorocha, Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba, Uju Kennedy, Nicholas Bello, Rotimi Amaechi, Senator Chris Ngige, Senator Ken Nnamani, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, Senator Godswill Akpabio, Chief Timpreye Sylva, and Governor Ben Ayade of Cross River State.

Eyes are not on the fifth group, which is made up of two aspirants-Pastor Tunde Bakare and former House of Representatives Speaker Dimeji Bankole, who joined the party not too long ago.

The preparation for shadow poll in APC is also full of drama. Aspirants were given withdrawal forms, which they are expected to submit along with their nomination forms. The arrangement has generated suspicion, tension and confusion in the party. Before filling the forms, many of them consulted their lawyers for legal advice.

Ministers who have joined the presidential, governorship and parliamentary race refused to resign, until the President issued a quick notice. The president berated them, indirectly, for a shortfall in courage.

The President, as confirmed by his media aide, Femi Adesina, has a preferred candidate. That confirmation cannot be ignored. When he anointed Senator Adamu Abdullahi as APC National Chairman, chieftains only grumbled briefly. They later accepted their fate. Will the reaction of chieftains follow the same trend, if he unveils his preferred presidential candidate?

If the president is going to anoint an aspirant, then, consensus may not be a mere speculation. How to go about it is the big issue.

Who is the lucky candidate? When will President Buhari unveil him? What next after the presidential endorsement? Will the President’s choice dwarf other contestants? Will other contenders step down for him?

There are other mushrooms parties floated by venerable noise makers in the polity, including former rights activist battling with identity crisis, following the restoration of civil rule in 1999. They are credited with a mettle of speech as social critics and civil society voices. They mobilised for action in the days of military rule. But, since civil rule was achieved, they have often failed in their bid to mobilise for change on the platforms of their narrow parties.

The smaller parties lack spread and tentacles across the regions. The aspirants  are just contesting for the fun of it. In the name of democracy and human rights, they are merely warming the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) register. Their candidates will lose their deposit on poll day.

Politics is dynamic. The field is slippery. There may be more surprises as Nigeria moves closer to 2023.

One thing is certain: another President will emerge next year.

The division between the North and South over zoning has widened. Will the zoning question, its resolution or non-resolution, shape next year’s presidential election?

Some have argued that rotation is not a constitutional matter. But, the constitution has alluded to the imperative of national unity and integration. How to achieve that togetherness is often downplayed or sacrificed on the altar of partisan politics.

If the zoning challenge is going to be resolved by the constitution, then, the race for the presidential tickets of the two major political parties-the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-will be thrown open.

If it is thrown open, then, certain forces are likely to exploit religion and ethnicity to secure a pre-determined outcome at the primaries in a fragile federation of unequal bloc regions.

However, if it is going to be resolved by political tradition or convention, it means the two main parties would be embracing the reality of pre-existing agreements among their founding fathers. The object of the agreement is to ensure that the bloc region that would have occupied the number one seat for eight years in 2023 should not produced the next president.

Whether the question will be resolved appropriately or otherwise may have implications, not only for cohesion in the parties, but also for national unity. It is up to the parties to rationally and realistically confront the question. It is up to the electorate to react on poll day to the approaches, identical or differential, that may be adopted by the two parties.

The genesis of the zoning agitation is that Nigeria has not been one, and may never be one, if its lopsided formular for power and resource distribution is not reviewed, redesigned or reconfigured to reflect diverse and collective interests. In as much as a particular zone remains in a vantage position to always produce the president to the exclusion of other regions, the feeling of marginalisation, alienation, exploitation and oppression will not fizzle out. Unity and peace may remain a tall order in an atmosphere of nepotism. The feeling about master-servant relationship will persist. The result is an enduring bitterness, which may continue to dispose the country to fragility, disintegration and chaos.

During the week, the agitation for zoning intensified. The South renewed its demand for power shift through rotation.

In the APC, the Southwest’s claim is that it is a critical factor in the alliance that produced President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. Therefore, there is an agreement over power shift that should be honoured. Besides, the Southwest is the strongest ally and stronghold of the ruling party in the South.

Southwest progressives leaders also claim that although the zone produced President Olusegun Obasanjo, he was of the PDP. Now is the time to produce an APC president from the Progressives West.

Also in the South, the Southsouth, which has produced President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, is claiming that it is a major stake holder in the APC and indeed, Nigeria, being the zone that lays the golden egg. The oil-bearing zone also claims that without it, Nigeria may not economically survive.

The claim of the Southeast is that apart from the six years of ceremonial presidency of Dr. Nnamidi Azikiwe and six months of Major General Thomas Aguiyi Ironsi military regime, it has not tasted power. The zone is fighting in the APC, which it has not fully embraced. Indeed, the ruling party is perpetually struggling to build on its skeletal presence in Igboland.

Yet, Southeast is also sweating in the PDP, where Northern stakeholders are unwilling to concede its presidential ticket to Igboland, but always ready to dangle the carrot of running mate, which pales into a spare tyre. Although Southeast has continued to consistently support PDP, the possibility of picking its presidential standard bearer from the zone for 2023 poll is remote.

So distressing is the fate of Southeast in the  opposition party that the pan-Igbo umbrella organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, has pleaded with Southeast politicians not to play second fiddle.

The Southwest organisation, Afenifere, in sympathy with the Southeast, also decided to uncritically disown presidential contenders from the West by urging the two parties to zone their tickets to the Southeast. While Northern groups are defending the interest of the North, and the Southeast group is articulating the aspiration of Southeast, the Southwest organisation is neglecting Southwest’s interest and defending the interest of the Southeast.

The strategy of the North is different. Northern forces are not directly calling for power retention. They are only pushing for ‘open contest’ at the shadow polls of the ruling and opposition parties.  They have the backing of the Arewa Consultative Forum, which has warned Southern voices against what it described as blackmail. If their demand is upheld by the leadership of the two parties, then, they are certain that the North, head or tail, will retain the tickets.

When the idea of zoning was mooted in the PDP, the composition of the panel that debated it showed that it had more members from the North. According to observers, the report was predictable. Northern PDP is comfortable with abolition of zoning, to the consternation of Southern members.

The North appears to be bullying the South with its numerical strength, number of local governments and states, and hence, number of delegates. In democracy, that number is important. But, the lopsided federation has often come under criticism. If the structure will change, it may not be in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the South is also resisting, saying that an ‘open’ race is antithetical to equitable power distribution.

The thinking in the PDP that a Southern candidate cannot win the poll is also infuriating to the South, which has continued to claim that without home support, Obasanjo won in 1999.

The argument that the last PDP president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, came from the South is also weak. It will not resolve the fear of domination and marginalisation that would arise from 16 years of Northern presidency.

In the APC, some people are also insinuating that a Southern candidate may not be able to defeat a Northern PDP flagbearer. It underscores the fallacy of their ideas about political competition, as the contest should not really be between the North and South, but between the APC and the PDP.

Like the PDP, zoning is also a major hurdle in APC. National Chairman Abdullahi Adamu’s recent remark that the party has not taken any decision on it jolted Southern chieftains out of their delusion that the agenda can be actualised without some sorts of struggle. The statement has inadvertently strengthened the dictatorship of numbers. If Adamu were not from the North, he may have been more circumspect. Historically, there was never a time a national party officially announced zoning. What has been in vogue was that the national caucus, National Working Committee (NWC) and National Executive Committee (NEC) will discuss and zone unofficially. There is a targeted zone. The party has its internal communication channel. The unofficial decision may not forbid aspirants from other zones to participate. Eyes will not be on them at the primary. Definitely, the targeted zone may have more aspirants. Anytime the zoning convention is breached, the party may go for primary in crisis and anxiety.

The reaction to Adamu’s remark came from a governor, who does not want to pretend to be a politician. It reflected the mood of the South.

Ondo State Governor Rotimi Akeredolu was combative as he warned about the consequences of dumping rotation.

However, pro-zoning agitators seem to be oblivious of the fact that rotation can only be accomplished by a struggle that is also characterised by dialogue, persuasion and mutual understanding. It is a game that can only be won by tact, skill and deployment of socio-political implements.

Yet, Akeredolu’s argument is meaningful, reasonable and logical. He urged the APC to make a categorical statement on the matter. He recalled that the choice of NWC  members

was guided by the principle of zoning. He also warned that the neglect of zoning could lead to friction, crisis, acrimony, bitterness and distrust in the party ahead of the primary.

The governor merely re-echoed the popular resolution of the Southern Governors’ Forum in Lagos and Asaba, which has been adopted by a wider spectrum of stakeholders from the Southwest, Southeast, Southsouth and Middle Belt.

In particular, Akeredolu wondered why the party leadership, which adopted zoning during its recent convention in Abuja, cannot exhibit its commitment to the same principle as presidential convention draws near..

This is the crux of the matter: what factors gave birth to zoning, federal character, catchment area and ‘turn by turn?’ It is to give all the regions and component units of the federation a sense of belonging, inclusion and fulfillment.

It started in the education sector. In tertiary matriculation examinations, it was discovered that while candidates from the South were passing in flying colours, candidates from some states in the highly populated North could not fly. It was reasoned that for equity, justice and fairness, the gap between the educationally backward North and the South should be bridged. The South had to make a painful sacrifice as candidates who scored above 200 in the examination could not get admission while candidates who got below 150 were admitted.

Even, in admissions into Federal Government Colleges, candidates who score 165 may not get admission while Northern candidates who score below 100 may be admitted.

However, when it comes to fair distribution of political offices, particularly the presidency, the North is always reluctant to surrender the position. If quota system is upheld, why can’t zoning be affirmed for unity, stability and management of diversity? Is it not in national interest? Would it not boost mutual confidence and peaceful coexistence?