Category: Sunday

  • Tinubu: Tingling transition titibits!

    Tinubu: Tingling transition titibits!

    “The reform is on the way; I am here with the hope that you will collaborate with me; I promise you my commitment to fulfil all political promises I made … I promise Nigerians the unity of this country is not negotiable… I promise I will be fair to all. We will fight poverty; and we must fight it rigorously. Poverty of thinking, poverty, poverty of standard; poverty of reasoning.” – Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President Elect (Reference: Punch, 5th May 2023)

    Reform is synonymous with such words as rectify, improve, better, refine, alter, adjust, etc. Simply and squarely stated it connotes change. It depicts dynamic interactions involving movement from one position or place to another – preferably adjudged better than the previous one, in terms of ease of operations, cost benefits or constituents’ preferences. The constituents are the followers making up the body of beneficiaries. It should be borne in mind, ab initio, any intervention of government often commences with an Input, followed by series of Activities that will culminate in an Output. In developmental studies, it does not stop at Output. Unfortunately, in Nigeria, nay Africa, most governmental interventions produce Outputs that are widely celebrated. The traditional and online media is agog and awash with such glitz. For instance, if it is discovered within a senatorial district to locate a tertiary institution as an intervention. Getting it included in the budget and making funds available all constitute the Inputs, whilst mobilizing men, materials, machinery and money to erect structures like laboratories, workshops, classrooms, etc.  can be classified as Activities. The conclusion of construction works on these edifices within the project – establishing the tertiary institution – is tagged Output.

    However, in result chain management, every developmental scholar knows that outputs of any governmental intervention should dovetail into tangible Outcomes. Ultimately, over a span of time, say 3 to 5 years, Outcomes should translate to Impact. In essence, to make this happen in any government, there must be a strong political will for the government to imbibe and inculcate a culture of assessment, performance and improvement in all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) of government with critical performing variables that are simple, measurable, achievable, realistic and timebound (aka SMART). Breaking it down, such a government will work assiduously and adroitly in ensuring development of key performance indicators (KPIs) whilst setting up ambitious and audacious targets annually, biannually or quarterly, as the case may be.

    In Yoruba common parlance, which I believe will resonate with the tinkering of the President Elect, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it is saliently and succinctly stated: “a ki fi eniyan joye awodi ki o ma le gbe adiye”, meaning: one that is installed as titular chief to hunt a hawk, should at least hunt a hen. It is in the light of this background that the crafted “Renewed Hope 2023 Action Plan for a better Nigeria” should set targets for implementation in the journey of turning earnest expectations to manifestations. In this vein, hunting a hawk could be situated with a high target, while at least catching a hen could signify an achievement.  Going further down the line, while the target could score 100%, what is achieved at the end of the timespan could be 70%. Hence, there is a measurable indicator of success or delivery that will be clear to all stakeholders in the Nigeria project. This columnist was involved in a World Bank Study Tour of Kerala State of India in conjunction with the Lagos State Government in October 2014 to understudy the Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) systems of that India State. There and then, the team from Nigeria discovered that the State of Kerala owned and hoisted “Planspace Kerala”, accessible anywhere globally. The Planspace Kerala showcases developmental projects on-going in the state and stages of accomplishment viz-a-viz others details. Access depends on the level of authority: skeletal details are available to the general public virtually while high level details are only made available to top government functionaries. We can replicate this in Nigeria to checkmate corruption and enhance citizens’ feedback to improve delivery, and simultaneously promote accountability and transparency. 

    Titbits That Tickle

    In the course of the transition to the seat of power, Aso Rock Villa, the President Elect, in exhibiting and exemplifying credibility, backed his word with action by visiting Rivers State after the election of 25th February 2023 where he emerged victorious. It really proved, if he could make his word his bond in small things, he could be trusted in big things as well, after all, the Bible says: he that is faithful in a few things will be faithful in much. Whilst on a commissioning spree, the gleeful man of the moment spoke in unmistaken terms about what is uppermost in his heart. It is both reassuring and heartwarming to followers hearing the President Elect pontificating inter alia: “the reform is on the way; I am here with the hope that you will collaborate with me; I promise you my commitment to fulfil all political promises I made … I promise Nigerians the unity of this country is not negotiable… I promise I will be fair to all. We will fight poverty; and we must fight it rigorously. Poverty of thinking, poverty of standard; poverty of reasoning” (Reference: Punch, 5th May 2023). To this columnist, this is tickling to the ears! If he translates his words to actions, Tinubu may not only surprise but shock some people as he is likely to take governance to new levels of strategic thinking towering above tottering leadership that Nigeria has been consigned to. Expectedly, the incoming government may be preparing the minds of Nigerians for a tickling feeling of peculiar exhibitions of positive traits of leadership in sync with the Renewed Hope Agenda.

    The President Elect promising to unite the whole country is a good way to go as there is power in unity; and diversity pays when we collaborate as Nigerians, and not seeing ourselves as Fulani, Bachama, Igbo, Nupe, Idoma, Yoruba, Edo, Efik, Hausa, Ibibio, Kanuri, Ibira, Tiv, etc. Going this route will give bit to the much-mouthed national healing and reconciliation moves of the incoming administration. Moreover, it is titillating to the ears that some of the aides of the President Elect have attested to the possibility of considering the Oronsaye Report that touted merging government agencies as a way of crippling overlapping functions and eschewing wastes in governance at the centre. It would be recalled that the erstwhile President Goodluck Jonathan way back in 2011 set up the Presidential Committee on Restructuring of Federal Government Parastatals, Commissions and Agencies under the chairmanship of Oronsaye. The committee submitted its report on April 16, 2012. Neither Jonathan or the Buhari administration had the political tenacity or temerity to implement most of the recommendations of the report. Unfortunately, the arduous and audacious work of the committee has been left as a paper tiger on the shelf gathering dust! Can Tinubu bell the cat? Will the incoming president and his team be primed, prepared and programmed to counter all resistance to reforms that will engender merger and possibly scrapping of some MDAs in order to arrest wastages whilst enhancing efficiency and effectiveness in the public service?

    Checkmating and Crippling Corruption

    The incoming President during his two-day state visit to Rivers State, alluded to the fact that except the welfare of judges is improved, there is no way to ward them off from corrupting tendencies within Nigeria’s context. It is his belief that incentives and policies should be put in place that will make corruption unattractive for judges and other Nigerian workers. Inter alia, on his twitter page, he posited: “you don’t expect your judges to live in squalor, to operate in squalor and dispense justice in squalor. This is part of the changes that are necessary. We must fight corruption but we must definitely look at the other side of the coin. If you don’t want your judges to be corrupt you pay attention to their welfare …” (sic). However, improving welfare alone may not really cripple or checkmate corruption in the public sector as there are some public servants that have avaricious tendencies that no matter the amount of welfare instituted in MDAs, they can still exhibit corrupting or crooked tendencies. One way to address this atrophy and anomaly is to promote cashless transactions in operations of MDAs whether in intra, inter and external dealings with the workforce and constituents. In this vein, all levies, taxes and dues to government coffers should be paid through the financial institutions or online with e-receipts. Moreover, the accounts of government to which these monies or funds go should have layers of signatories ranging up to 5 top and credible government officials making it tough to withdraw money from its coffers. In addition, MDAs of government should set strategic boundaries. In strategic execution, there are risks to be avoided, necessitating implementers to set strategic boundaries. These are written codes of conduct that anyone operating outside them will be sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others. Toeing this path, there is the urgent need to re-position and re-strengthen the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Offences Commission (ICPC) to make these institutions act like dogs that can both back and bite.

    Concluding Comments

    At the outset of this piece, the imperativeness of the Tinubu-led government come 29th May 2023 to hunt towards achieving set targets was torchlighted. However, it was hinted that in the process of hunting for a hawk, the hunter (implementer of strategy), could eventually hunt down a hen; it is a measure of outcomes of events. These sequences of steps are enumerated as Inputs; Activities; Outputs; Outcomes; and Impacts. At this juncture, the “Renewed Hope 2023 Action Plan for a better Nigeria” is what matters as the mantra of the Tinubu-led administration expected to hit the ground running come 29th May 2023. As at the time of going to the press, the President Elect is on his way for a working visit to Europe to commune with his close aides and dialogue with prospective and potential investors. The core and crucial question to ask is: has the President Elect and his close team assiduously and adroitly work on the Renewed Hope Agenda with a view to break it down to output, outcome and impact indicators that will ultimately be simple, measurable, achievable, realistic and timebound (SMART)? Moreover, there are sub-questions to ponder upon: (a) are there tinkering bordering on strategic uncertainties that are unplanned for that could derail the original pattern of actions towards realizing the targets? (b) Are there clearly identifiable “low-hanging fruits” that the incoming administration could latch on to and pluck to placate the populace within the first 90 days in power? (c) What are the ways and means of the incoming administration executing tough decisions like oil subsidy withdrawal without warring with the mass of followers that some unscrupulous politicians may want to sway to their side callously and cynically? The coming days are in sync with a moniker made popular by the title of one of the treatises of Ronald Heifetz, one of the world’s famous authorities in the practice and teaching of leadership, which says: “leadership without easy answers”. We are following and flowing along! It promises to be an interesting and intriguing trajectory!!  

    • Ekundayo, Ph.D. –  can be reached via +2348030598267 (WhatsApp only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com

  • Re: Immediate task before the President-elect

    Re: Immediate task before the President-elect

    In my article, ‘Immediate Task Before The President-Elect, 30 April, 2023’, I wrote as follows: “Yes, electoral choice has consequences but, if at the most difficult of times going into the APC presidential primaries, patriotic Northern APC governors could stick out their necks and opt for a Southern presidential candidate, the President – Elect cannot afford to demonstrate less fairness in the choice of those who will emerge the National Assembly leaders. Nigeria has traditionally rested on the North, West, East tripod. Therefore, since both the West and the North have already produced the incoming President and Vice- President, respectively, the next logical, fair and equitable thing to do, is for the Senate President to be zoned to the Southeast.”

    APC threw that suggestion into the waste basket and zoned it to the South south on the grounds of higher equity and fairness, because whereas the Southeast has produced 5 senate presidents since the return of democracy in 1999, the South south has had none.

    Also, apart from the Southeast not voting for the APC, the most outstanding Southeast senator, Orji Uzor Kalu, could not have been more antagonistic towards President – Elect Tinubu. He neither attended any of his events, even within the geo-political zone, nor did he campaign for him anywhere so that while he had 40,000 votes to win his senate seat, Tinubu got a measly 8000 votes in the state.

    Of the many reactions to the article, space constraint will permit only one here. It came from Olu Ajayi, a retired, absolutely seminal Permanent Secretary in the Ekiti State civil service. He wrote:

     “Your article was characteristically lucid, analytical and incisive, but it seems, in my considered opinion, to have simply flown with the traffic. True enough, inter -ethnic hostilities have been a problem in Nigeria, but let’s be honest, it certainly is not the most serious problem the President –Elect will have to contend with.

    In politics, as in other endeavors, you reap where you sow. That is without prejudice to the federal character principle in power sharing. Tinubu was right in lending his weight to zoning the no. 3 position to the South as it is only fair to have a Christian as no.3. He should stop there as that, in itself presupposes that there are competent senators-elect in both the South East and the South South for the office. Remember that he will again have to face the electorate in about 45 months from  now. The best strategy for him will be to compensate, and woo the North and those other areas where they voted for him, as he will certainly need them again. A timid approach of appeasement to the  Igbo will surely be counterproductive. Performance was the secret of his success story in Lagos, not appeasement. And no matter what, nothing suggests that Igbos will align with Yorubas politically, in our generation. They will continue to feed on the ancient grudge of the genocide of 1966 and the Biafran war that followed forgetting that they were the power brokers in the governments of both Alhaji Shehu Shagari and Goodluck Jonathan. They have produced several Senate Presidents  despite which they have not stopped complaining of marginalisation”.

    “Mark my words, the South East will not vote for Tinubu in another election, especially if an Igbo is contesting the Presidency, even under a Party of Riddles and Jokes. I would, actually sincerely, wish a South South candidate emerges the no 3. Having said all that, I believe that the immediate task before the Tinubu presidency will be on security and the economy. Boko haram and other Islamic fundamentalist groups in the North, the IPOB and other violent groups in the South East and the other criminalities that have overtaken Nigeria, will have to be seriously dealt with. And in good time too. The economic situation is equally terrible. Inflation and youth unemployment have put Nigerians on edge. Addressing these concerns is what will endear the Tinubu government to Nigerians ; making Igbo the Senate President will work no magic”.

    The above, among other comments, set me re – thinking my position.

    Of course, I hold dearly to the notions of equity and fairness and that consideration was the basis for my suggestion, and other than that, can anybody sincerely say that the Southeast earned the Senate presidency either before, during or even since the February 25 presidential election, seeing how, almost to the last man, Igbos have done everything to delegitimise the election; claiming it was the worst ever election in Nigeria. So nauseating is this their claim, you would think they were all in Siberia during the 2007 election, held during the Administration of their big Uncle. That was an election the chief benefactor, President Umar Yar Adua, completely disavowed of just as it was described as the worst ever in Christendom by the EU while the National Democratic Institute observer team equally, summarily  called it the worst election, ever. Anywhere, even in Myanmar.

    And why are they united in thrashing the election?

    Simple, just because the votes were not uploaded on the IREV, real time. In the meantime,  those who have promised to win the election for Peter Obi during  his tour of Canada and the US,  even though they were not going to vote, were at the ready, waiting for the figures to hack but they had none. Ditto for the PDP, for which reason Dino Melaye literally went hysterical since their contractors too were also waiting for the figures.

    Good thinking INEC. Bravo.

    Incidentally, as late as last week, the Supreme Court, in the Osun governorship case, affirmed that INEC is under no legal compulsion to immediately upload results on the IREV.

    Also, Isa Ali Pantami, Nigeria’s minister of Communication and Digital Economy, later informed Nigerians that the INEC server recorded more than 12 million attacks on February 25 both from within and outside Nigeria.

    That failure has been about the sole grouse of several, otherwise, respected Igbos, and why they rant about the President – Elect being sworn in on May 29, 2023. But much more than that, it speaks, in reality, to the fact that left to them, whatever Ndigbo does not, or cannot control, just must not be allowed to survive or thrive.

    Only this past week, the highly regarded Olatunji Dare, a respected columnist on our Tuesday edition, took us through a refreshing recall of the shameful roles played by the likes of Professor Ben Nwabueze, SAN, who led the group that drafted the so- called Interim constitution, “the highly compromised” Attorney – General of the Federation, Clement Apamgbo, not forgetting the devil incarnate himself, Arthur Nzeribe, all  Igbo –  who, together with many other kindred spirits combined to mess up Chief MKO Abiola’s mandate.

    A people who have severally partnered with the North in ruling Nigeria, just cannot bear to hear of a ‘real Yoruba’, becoming President of Nigeria. It pains far beyond the marrows.

    In the instant case, as if presidential elections were holding for the first time in Nigeria, Olisa Agbakoba, SAN, had, a few months before the elections, became hyper active about the winning  presidential candidate having to secure a quarter of votes in the FCT simply because he knows that the FCT is crawling with Igbos, and that they, in fact, practically owns it.

    Space constraint will not permit us quote him talking, ex- cathedral, as if, even though a silk, he is ignorant of the Court of Appeal ruling in”Baba-Panya v President, F. R. N. (2018) 15 NWLR (Pt. 1643) 395, which declared Abuja the equivalent of a state.

    Happily, INEC merely treated both him, and his views, with the only thing they deserve: benign neglect.

    But Agbakoba is not alone. The likes of Sam Amadi, Obi Nwakanma, not forgetting Chimamanda Adichie or Rudolf Okonkwo, to mention only a few, have weaponised whatever offices, tools or exposure they brandish, to attempt to thrash the election, as well as, canvass their narrow ethnocentric view that the President – Elect must not be sworn in on 29th May, 2023.

    Funny characters. You would think they were somewhere in Antarctica when other Presidents -Elect were sworn in as the presidential tribunal continued the cases challenging their election.  Nor is Ohanaeze Ndigbo, their apex socio – cultural organisation, lagging behind in exhibiting its hatred for, and opposition to the President – Elect, just as their jobless hordes are daily on Abuja roads, demonstrating and shouting “ no swearing in”.

    In all these,  there’s one thing I know very well: for all these very important Igbos, the FEAR OF IPOB is the beginning of wisdom. It is the reason they stay put in Lagos when they come on holidays from abroad, never attempting to visit home. It is  also why they will never change their stance on the election in a thousand years, as there are too many unexplained assassinations to think about.

    Although Agbakoba would rather take no cognisance of the 180 days prescribed by our extant laws, but would wish that court processes are abridged, so the case can end  in a week or two all because an Obi is on the ballot, he is far less dangerous than Joe Ajaero, the NLC President  who, as Jibola Omole recently put it in his well-crafted ‘Weaponising The Nigeria Labour Congress Against the Incoming Government’, has literally turned the Labour Union into a Peter Obi demolition tool.  He has equally taken on the Nigerian judiciary with what he calls a ‘ hall of shame’ for judges who will not decide according to Obidients’ dictates.

    Finally, the Igbo tendency to all think the same way, has led one of their own to accuse them of thinking like a crab. Hear him: “they behave like crabs. Put a hundred crabs in an uncovered basket. Go to Mbaise and come back , you will meet all hundred crabs waiting for you”. Some food for thought.

  • Party formations and their prospects

    Party formations and their prospects

    After almost a quarter of a century of running and occasionally stumbling, one can safely conclude that party politics and some variant of democratic rule have come to stay in Nigeria. One may demur at calling it a full blown democracy. But then as we have stated repeatedly in this column, there is no ideal democracy anywhere in the world; only approximations and proximate practice depending on how far a society has evolved away from authoritarian and unaccountable rule.

      This limitation notwithstanding, only the starry-eyed adventurer would imagine at this stage that a military solution is the answer to the country’s problems. Given the configuration of the country, the days of military coups in Nigeria appear to be over, except as a prelude to an unwieldy disintegration of the nation. This is perhaps the most signal achievement of the post-military dispensation.

     This past week, the apex court of the land settled the gubernatorial sweepstakes in Osun State in favour of the opposition PDP and its candidate, the ever gyrating and compulsively acrobatic Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke, making him the second person from his family to have ruled the state since its creation some thirty two years ago.

     The judgment demonstrated considerable circumspection, wisdom and statesmanlike sagacity. The Supreme Court seemed to have been nettled by recent criticism of some of its controversial decisions. This time around, the apex court appears to have jettisoned a reliance of technicalities to arrive at a credible approximation of substantive justice. In doing so, the court seems to have returned to the path of constitutionalism as taken by some of its fabled forebears.

     Only a supremely obtuse Supreme Court would refuse to monitor closely and acutely the situation on ground and the balance of electoral forces, or would attempt to play ostrich to the prevalent mood and sentiments of the voters. This is often a recipe for chaos and anarchy. Rather than deliberately courting disorder, judicial adjudication of disputed elections should be about returning peace to the street and helping the nation to find political equilibrium.

      It can be argued that for its abiding sanctity and institutional legitimacy, the court, particularly the apex court, should never be turned into a theatre for popular frivolities or ethnic grandstanding by political psychotics and other social deviants who can never find peace in a multi-ethnic society bristling with mutually antagonistic forces. But by the same token, going to court should not be turned into a legal euphemism for going to court injustice. 

    The judgment of the Supreme Court on Osun should be seen as the “coup de grace”. Already virtually annihilated by the PDP steamroller in a core Yoruba state where it held sway with hegemonic relish a short while earlier, it would have been a miracle for an APC government to survive in such a hostile environment without a resort to political jiggery-pokery.

      As we have seen in Nigeria, this is a ploy that often comes with its own terrifying prospects and hazards for the survival of democracy. It is unfortunate that this should be happening in a state hitherto regarded as a bastion of progressive politics. The Adeleke clan are themselves cut from this progressive loin.

      Only God knows what their illustrious progenitor would be thinking in his grave. The ruling party went to the election badly divided and bitterly polarized. To be sure, a sophisticated electorate can actually vote in different ways on the same party and in the same election. But this time around, the rout of the APC is too compelling for such electoral nitpicking and erudite hairsplitting. The party should now go back to the drawing board to see where the rains started pounding it.

      It will be recalled that Oyo State, another core Yoruba state, had earlier given Seyi Makinde an emphatic return ticket to the gubernatorial lodge in Agodi. So overwhelming was his victory and so compelling was the bravura performance that even his opponents rose stoutly to congratulate him in a matter of days after the polls. This is as it should be.

      Makinde has been playing some astute and brave politics. He has shown himself a master trapeze artist of the political tightrope. The Yoruba political illuminati may pretend not to be watching and evaluating the performance of their sons and daughters in the field of high-wire politics. But they are actually and acutely monitoring developments. As they say, when a person is sent on a slave mission, he is expected to deliver with the aplomb and nobility of the freeborn.

       With this development, the PDP has punched a massive hole in the heart of the APC electoral suzerainty in the old western region.  With Ogun state already trapped by an adversarial pincer movement emanating from Ibikunle Amosun’s Owu redoubt and from some confederate elements in the Ogun East Senatorial district, this is going to present some political difficulties going forward for the president-elect.

      But Tinubu is a man of extraordinary political dexterity and sagacity who thrives best when under political pressure. It would have been strange and unusual if his acute and well-placed strategic antenna has not picked the landmines. It was precisely this and the constant taunts and jibes from elements of the northern political mafia that goaded Obasanjo into committing the electoral heist of 2003 and the forcible subjugation of his own region which signposted the decline of his political fortunes.

     From this, it can be seen that the demons confronting party formation in contemporary Nigeria are wholly within, powered by their own internal contradictions, particularly their mode of leadership recruitment and the perverse patterns of patronage and preferment which can be likened to a bastard feudalism unknown anywhere in contemporary political practice.

      Consequently, there is an ideological and structural meltdown everywhere. This is why it has been possible for a leading candidate in an ultra -right wing party to duck out of the party presidential primary only to emerge hours later as the presidential candidate of a purportedly leftwing party with which he had no prior organic connection or evident ideological kinship.

    Yet despite this counterrevolutionary heist, there are millions of compatriots, including the supposedly enlightened, who look at this as the moment of revolutionary rupture with the old order. Surely, what is known in theory of knowledge as coupoure epistemologique is driven by more earth-shattering forces rather than a fellow who reminds one of the famous quip about the banality of evil.

       Going by the same logic, this is why it is also possible for a ruling party to throw all kinds of imaginable and unimaginable obstacles across the path of its leading candidate just to prevent him from prevailing and only to enthusiastically embrace the same candidate after he had miraculously triumphed as if nothing has happened. Just like that, as the immortal Fela would put it. This descent into what feels and looks like the realm of political phantasmagoria is a direct reflection of the contradictions at play.

     As a result of this strange political drama, the discerning observer would have noticed two intriguing developments. First is the sheer loss of ideological exuberance in contemporary Nigerian politics despite all the uproar. Either among old tested political buffs or newly arrived greenhorns, a sober pragmatism is the name of the game. The current commotion about zoning is a quarrel about patronage and not about principles.

     No one is willing to take any risk or act outside the script. Yet it should be obvious that in a mortally conflicted society, politics can do with a dose of idealism. It is axiomatic that without the injection of visionary idealism, no meaningful development can take place in any society. The triumph of transactional politics and of the commodification and commercialization of politics leads to a steady erosion of popular faith in the redemptive and ameliorative prospects of politics.

      The loss of faith in politics eventuates in apathy, withdrawal from public space by the people and abdication of civic responsibility. More ominously, it makes citizens very vulnerable to political conmen, spiritual quacks and violent religionists who promise them life more abundant and plutocratic wealth provided they become willing dupes and witless executioners.

      This weaponization of disorder and hunger in the land by politicians, clergymen and sectarian insurrectionists, bears only evil fruits as it leads to state atrophy or relentless attempts to bring the nation to its heel by armed confrontation. Once the platform of politics as the supreme arbiter of elite competition collapses, the highway to Khartoum or Mogadishu opens up.

      In the light of the above, enlightened self-interest demands that the political class takes a harder look at the code and conduct of politics in the Fourth Republic. The last election shows how prone a dysfunctional political society is always to a universal eruption of discontent and seething anger, an unstructured “revolution” which would have been met by a “structured” counter-revolutionary uprising. This in turn could have put paid to the nation as a uniform “non-negotiable” entity.

      Had the whole thing not been marred by an opportunistic switch of platform in the very last minute, had the leading lights been at it for much longer and in a calm, deliberate, painstaking and pan-Nigerian manner, had the movement been purged of its dangerous religious gaming and primordial excrescences, the outcome could have been very different. Even at that, it was a close-run thing.

    But a serious nation cannot continue to run on luck forever. Something must give at some point. This is why it behooves on the political class to take a wholesale and holistic evaluation of the problems and prospects of party formation in the Fourth Republic. Since the collapse of the Second Republic at the tail end of 1983, we have never had political parties with firm ideological orientation, except the two state parties foisted on the nation by General Ibrahim Babangida famously dismissed by Chief Antony Enahoro as “government parastatals”.

      In the event, the Uromi sage was proved right as it was the principal members of the “left of centre party” that led the phalanx of treachery and perfidy that torpedoed MKO’s historic mandate.  So much then for a progressive and “left of centre” party. By the time they finished with the nation, there was nothing left of the centre except the humongous carcass of General Babangida’s chicanery.

     As a conservative establishment, the military are not institutionally equipped to furnish postcolonial nations with authentic, ideologically motivated left of centre parties. This is akin to shooting themselves in the foot. Twice in the history of Nigeria, in 1979 and 1999— and that is discounting General Babangida’s fabled fiasco— the military imposed broad-based pan-Nigerian parties on the nation requiring considerable elite consensus and conciliation. That was the NPN and the PDP. No one could fault their choice as it was in line with their training and elitist vision of the country.

      Unfortunately and as a result of this ideological lacuna which privileges booty-sharing as the precondition for national stability rather than accelerated economic development, the two state parties soon dissolved into a bazaar of open larceny which led to their collapse under the weight of their own iniquities and contradictions.

      But we cannot continue to blame the military in perpetuity. They have done their bit and have left the scene. In fairness to their heirs, they have been on their best behavior for almost a quarter of a century. It is now left to the extant party formation to take an inward look, particularly with regards to party registration from the grassroots level, the distribution of patronage and the vexed issue of leadership recruitment.

  • A Jamaican farewell for Harry Belafonte

    A Jamaican farewell for Harry Belafonte

    This column joins the civilized world and millions of musical enthusiasts and aficionados of stirring melody in wishing the late master crooner, screen idol, philanthropist and indefatigable campaigner for civil rights, Harry Belafonte, a warm, rousing and hearty farewell. Born on the first day of March, 1927, the great crooner died on April 25th. The musical word has been in mourning ever since.

      It has been a Jamaican farewell to a Jamaican original: warm, pulsating, heartfelt and shot through with a cheery insouciance which the great crooner himself would have lustily applauded. You may leave Kingston, but Kingston never leaves you. Born in New York the son of Jamaican immigrants, Harry Belafonte never forgot his Jamaican roots. He was to parlay the Caribbean riches and magical allure to his first ground-breaking album which became the first solo LP to sell over a million copies.

      That was in 1956 and the album was appropriately named Calypso, a mellifluous medley of Caribbean concoctions. The young man seemed to have distilled the experience of a decade-long sojourn in Jamaica living with one of his grandparents into the stuff of memorable and enchanting melody. A new musical icon has arrived on the global scene.

      After that stirring debut, nothing really could stop him. And he looked every inch the part. Tall, exotically handsome, magnificently well built, exuding confidence and an artless bravura, Harry Belafonte quickly became a global heartthrob with a cult following among teenagers in many countries. An older friend of the columnist who was in secondary school in the fifties spoke of desperate attempts to emulate his unique hair cut which always ended in tears at barbers shops. It was his natural hair line.

    Yours sincerely discovered that one was not the only one to marvel at the source of Belafonte’s arresting looks. One had fingered a eugenically auspicious Caribbean potpourri of Indian, African and native genes. The reality is even more interesting. On both sides, he was the product of mixed racial unions. His mother was of Scottish and Afro-Jamaican lineage while his father was the child of an Afro-Jamaican mother and a Sephardic Jew of Dutch extraction.

      With his natural assets, it was almost inevitable that Belafonte would find his way to big-time film-acting. With his great friend, Sydney Poitiers, Belafonte had tried his hand at play acting earlier before the release of his chart-bursting album. The critical consensus was that Belafonte was not a great actor. Here, the plane seemed to have overshot the runway. It takes more than good looks and screen presence to be a great actor. Belafonte seems to have accepted the verdict with grace and equanimity.

    This notwithstanding, it is perhaps as a campaigner for civil rights and champion of Black emancipation in a fraught and socially convulsed period of American history that this great son of Africa and America would be best remembered. Harry Belafonte took great personal and professional risks. He could not be fazed by the prospects of being blacklisted which eventually came.

    Belafonte befriended and collaborated with Martin Luther King and was a famous feature of some of those epic marches for freedom without caring whose horse is gored. He took on some of the notable figures of contemporary American history without flinching and with remarkable aplomb. This was the finest moment of this son of Jamaican immigrants. May his great soul rest in peace.

  • For Kole Omotoso at 80 

    For Kole Omotoso at 80 

    (Snapsong 187)

                                                                  I

    That number sounds so heavy

         I can hardly lift it with my tongue

    Its span springs a distance un-measurable

         By the stretch of any ruler

    The sun’s silent steps across

         The infinity of the sky

    The concourse of the clouds

         Which drill and drop the rains

    Night after night after night

         We sleep in the songs

    Which sleep in us, dance with the dawn

         Whose drum provokes our day

    We rise, unaware,

         As those songs sizzle into see-suns

    Stir into seasons when the tree’s green promise

         Yellows into edible consumations

    And the seeds which broke the sod

         Laugh soundlessly at harvestide

    Time always tells its story

         Even when our ears are usurped by jubilant echoes

    Unforgettable,

         Those dusky days in Akure Oloyemekun

    When Dawn lifted its delicate dust

         And a new and complex day was born

  • The new managers of the African Interior

    The new managers of the African Interior

    May Day in Sudan

    Africa is once again the epicentre of global developments. As usual it is not as an active participant but as a passive and inert repository, a cannon fodder of historical struggle, which perhaps explains the apocalypse in Sudan and why things have taken a violent horrific colouration. With the developments in Sudan, it is tempting to conclude that the more the old international order changeth, the more the universal verities remain the same.

      Unfolding realities may force new events to take on a new garb, but it is a garment made from the old fabric. The Berlin Conference of 1884/1885 and the partitioning of Africa were leavened by an ideological and economic commonality of purpose among the contending western powers which made things to appear quite benign.

       It was this benign avarice and covetousness which allowed them to postpone global confrontation for another thirty years until the Germans broke ranks.  This time around, the veil is torn off revealing barefaced international roguery and the shambolic, sclerotic hulk of colonial nation-states imposed on the benighted continent.

       Nobody is asking aggrieved members of the Nigerian political elite not to complain about the irregularities and electoral malfeasance they perceive as characterizing the conduct of the last elections. This is how democracy has been deepened in Nigeria in almost a quarter of a century after the military departed the scene. The problem is that many of those who are shouting the loudest this time around have also been the prime beneficiaries of electoral heists in the past.

      Consequently, it behooves on genuine Nigerian patriots to know exactly how much legitimate pressure  can be piled on struggling democracies without something giving. Already burdened by weak legitimacy, deficit credibility and lack of elite conciliation, there is a limit to the pressure fragile democracies can take before things tip over into anarchy and normlessness.

      To starry-eyed idealists in the comfort of their home or the breezy television pundits ventilating in the air-conditioned ambience of television studios all this might sound like sterile hogwash, but those who have taken part in actual struggles against tyranny and autocracy know that it is always a close-run affair full of unintended consequences and unanticipated detours.

       Modern nations are a permanent process of organic memory bristling with shared tribulations and communal triumphs. The foundational problem with struggling democracies in Africa, particularly in a country like Nigeria, is the absence of a social contract between the ruled and the rulers which commits the ruling elite to a programme of continuous political reforms and economic development.

     This kind of social contract, often unwritten, cannot be procured through endless constitutional tinkering but on the field of permanent struggle for political emancipation, bloody toil and ceaseless human exertion. This is part of what constitutes the holistic myth of national becoming; a veritable reservoir of sacred facts and fanciful evocations.

      Unfortunately, the fractious nature of colonially-induced countries, the mutual unintelligibility of countervailing cultures and the sheer ethnic and religious polarities, make concerted efforts for political and economic freedom a very tall order indeed.

      The gridlock is unimaginable, like an articulated vehicle with the wheels facing different directions. The din and the commotion from grating and grinding drown out everything.  Without some heroic pulling away from the abyss, the nation-state paradigm in Africa is at the end of its tether.

      Since nature abhors a vacuum, no one is sure of the kind of hybrid mutations or genetic monstrosities that are in the offing. The international community seems to tire of the nation-state and its depredations in Africa and are probably preparing for some endgame. Unable to handle the Pandora box put in place by their colonial forbears, they have decided to find a way round the beached whale.

       This past week, while a section of the Nigerian political elite was still bickering and threatening fire and brimstone over the outcome of the last presidential election, America quietly announced a new multi-billion programme of “mutual cooperation” with African nations for the joint explorations of rare metals that abound on the stricken continent.

      Now, the real battle has been joined and the final scramble for Africa is well underway. It promises to make the Berlin conference of 1884/1885 the child’s play it really was. The velvet gloves might have come off. There may be no point in pretending any further about the benignity of the global order. Rather than lying waste in primeval forests and fever-compliant jungles, these precious metals can be used for startling technological advances and enhanced human prosperity in advanced societies. 

     It will be recalled that France, China, Russia, North Korea and a host of sundry international non-state actors are already involved in extractive predation in many parts of Africa, particularly in Zambia, DRC, Sudan, Niger and Mali. Charles Taylor has done his bit after carving out a huge swathe that hugged Sierra Leone and Liberia. Not even Nigeria is exempt from these extractive depredations.

      Recently, the youthful Burkinabe military ruler bemoaned the fact that since the French left his country has lost about forty percent of its original size to rampaging marauders.  The Tuareg dominated, Sahelian northern part of Mali is also virtually decoupled from the Malian state. There are enclaves in the vast, chaotic Democratic Republic of Congo that are military prefectures. Central African Republic limps on after a savage civil war has devastated the entire country.

       Of all these continental tragedies, it is the grim nightmare unfolding in Sudan that concentrates the mind. Sudan is another word for black. But it is now a compelling metaphor for all that has gone wrong with postcolonial Africa, particularly the utter despoliation of a nation and its humongous resources by a disparate rabble of military renegades. 

      It was not always like this. Sudan was a compelling racial melting pot, a modern Mesopotamia of sorts where oriental, Arab, western and indigenous people merged and meshed. Although there was always a whiff of Arab overlordism and its hegemonic culture, much of this has been diluted and degraded by centuries of marriage and interracial mixing.

       Khartoum itself was a vibrant city, hosting many cultures with many aspiring pilgrims of Nigerian extraction stranded by choice either en route to Mecca or en route from the Holy City. There are cross-cultural references to Yoruba people in the novel, Season of Migration to the North by the Sudanese writer, Tayeb Sallin.

      The country also boasted of a robust Communist Party which was wiped out to the last man in an abortive uprising against General Jaffar Muhammad el-Nimeiry in 1971. But if anyone had doubts that Sudan had come into its own, the heroic uprising by the generality of the people against the cruel and predatory rule of General Hassan el-Bashir proved the point.

      That was only four years ago. Now, after three weeks of savage fighting Khartoum has been reduced to a vast crater with the odour of death and decomposition thick in the air. If anyone thought that heaving off the culturally and religiously incompatible southern loop of the country would bring peace, the reality is far more depressing.

       Unfinished business looms large in the fractured country. This week, one of the belligerents, Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, aka Hemedti, let it be known that it was about time that people from the neglected and war-torn Darfur region of western Sudan take over power in the beleaguered country. This introduces a class and ethnic equation simmering just below the surface into an already combustible situation.

      Dagolo comes from a minority Chadian-Arab clan straddling Sudan and Chad who are despised and regarded as lowly and inferior by the more cultivated and cosmopolitan Arabised gentry of the twin-city of Khartoum and Omdurman. Hemedti has made fabulous wealth from his past infractions and has vast international connections.

       And he is not a hammock-bound commander. If he prevails, it will lead to seismic upheaval which will convulse the entire region with the defeated national army dissolving into urban banditry. If he loses, there is every likelihood that the rump of his militia will head for Darfur to begin a separatist insurrection.

    Either way, it is apocalypse on the lower Nile. It is a tragedy already foretold even if inadvertently by outlandish fictional imagination. In his celebrated evocation of rapine and plunder in colonial Africa, titled The Heart of Darkness, Joseph Conrad’s narrator spoke of an encounter with the European enforcer deep in his lair in the wild ravines of Belgian Congo.

      Simply known as the manager of the interior, our man was so well-dressed and lavishly appointed that he could have been acting a major part in a film. But he was in fact superintending the most brutal and systematic despoliation of a people known to modern history. In his efforts to cream off the natural resources of this absurdly endowed region of Africa, Leopold, the German-born king of Belgium, killed, maimed and heaved off the arms and limbs of a whopping third of the indigenous population.

    Almost two hundred years after, another manager of the interior came in the guise of Joseph Mobutu, a former pickpocket from the Equatorial forest of Gbadolite who had been recruited into the Belgian colonial army on the strength of his native intelligence and innate capacity for brutal exertions. Ever nattily dressed and impressively decked out in his trademark Fez cap and leopard hide cane, Mobutu could well have been an African prototype of the old colonial manager as he surveyed the ruins of his country from the balcony of one of his remote palaces deep in the Congolese jungle.

       Almost thirty years after Mobutu was driven out of the place, a properly functioning state is still a shaky proposition with vast ungovernable spaces interspersed with “free states” of lawless anomie. Countless civil wars later, the Democratic Republic of Congo hosts several contending armies of occupation. Extractive predation remains the order of the day with the state and other “free leasers” as active participants while a military prefecture rules the eastern tip of the country.

     Just as King Leopold and his agents by passed or simply ignored the traditional state structures they met on ground in the old Congo, the new managers of the African interior are most likely going to ignore the vastly diminished and attenuated relic of the postcolonial state on ground. This is going to be a state worse than formal colonization which flaunted some obligations.

      Some West African countries are already prone to this territorial meltdown. This is why Nigeria with all its current democratic imperfections and structural blemishes must not be allowed to go under. With Congo and Sudan out on a limb and with Ethiopia tottering on the edge as a result of a protracted inter-ethnic melee, Nigeria remains the only country with the size, the resources and the prodigious human endowment to lead an African pushback against a new wave of colonization. 

     But Nigeria ails grievously: politically, socially, economically and spiritually with the Sudanese symptoms slowly surfacing. This is why a lot will depend on what happens in the coming months.

  • The Battle of Agindingbi

    The Battle of Agindingbi

    Okon falls to Mama Igosun

    It was the longest day, and the cannons of Kiriji were already booming. Even before commencing on the great march on Mama Igosun’s redoubt, Okon was already dreaming of sweet victory and sweeter revenge. “I go tie up dem Yoruba witch as dem dey do for Akwa Ibom. Dem small children go pepper am and im go confess. Dem go know say na dem yeye Yoruba people dey trouble dis kontri. After dat na dem OPC house I go head make I go finish dat were man who come beat Okon just like dat”.

       After Okon was forcibly dislodged from the house in a civil commotion that lasted a whole day, he had taken up residence with Baba Lekki who promised him a medical concoction that would make him invisible to any human-being.  But the crazy boy still had his doubts about Baba Lekki and his bogus charm. As he evaded Baba’s lunging walking stick, Okon suddenly rounded on the old crook.

       “Baba as una dey chase me, dat means you dey see me? So when dem medicine go start work, abi na Yoruba wayo?” Okon demanded.

        “Na by remote control I go trigger am. I get dem remote control from dem Agbanrere (Giraffe) neck and dem buffalo horn”, Baba replied.

         “So, how one go know say one don become spirit?” Okon pressed.

         “When you hit dem LASTMA people and dem no reply”, Baba answered.

          “Baba  wetin if dem charm no work?”, Okon asked the ageing scoundrel.

          “Foolish boy, he come be like the case of dem apprentice pilot who dey ask him oga wetin go happen if parachute no open. Na dat one dem dey call jumping to conclusion”, Baba Lekki retorted with a sinister smile.

         “Baba, walahi, if dis yeye juju no work, as you come draw blood from my head, naim I go draw blood from una mouth”, Okon snarled as Baba Lekki tried to hush him away. By now, Okon knew he was on his own. But he was determined to press his luck.  Very soon, Okon arrived at the sight of an uncompleted building that had just collapsed. It was a scene out of the apocalypse. While people were wailing, open looting was also going on. His sense of natural dignity and justice affronted, Okon blocked the path of a neer do well. “No be dem dead people property you dey thief so?” Okon demanded. Before the mammoth urchin could give a reply, Okon dealt him a resounding slap on the face.

       “Allah wa kabr, awon omo ogun orun dide”, the illiterate vagabond screamed and fled.

       By now, Okon had arrived around the neighborhood. He was now convinced that the charm was working and that he was truly invisible and invincible. Earlier, he had accosted a policeman who was openly taking bribe and dealt him a blow to the plexus. The rogue cop fled screaming “Chineke dem ghost from Atan don destroy me”.

        But the first sign that all might not go well on the home front came soon. There was Mama Igosun dressed like a local hunter swigging directly from a bottle of Seaman’s schnapps even as she swung to a 1930 classic by Denge in honour of one Maggie Macaulay.

    As Okon made to sweep past her thinking that all this was an elaborate bluff, the Amazon blocked his path and stated cursing his ancestors.

        “Ekolo, abi wetin you call yourself, you no dey greet your mother for dem village?” she hollered as she tried to collar Okon.

         “Move”, Okon thundered as he sidestepped. Mama Igosun was so taken aback by the vehemence and ferocity that she tripped and fell. Okon rushed towards her room.

        “Hen hen, o ti lo gbagbara, abi?” the old woman screamed as she sprang after Okon. Overconfidence overtook the crazy boy. Before he could look back, the irate woman dealt him a blow on the back with a frying pan.  The effect of the blow was electric. Okon wound up like a stung millipede and upon recovering his senses, he took to his heels with Mama Igosun in hot pursuit.

  • From blue rail to electric buses

    From blue rail to electric buses

    Commendable. Revolutionary. A game changer indeed

    Sooner than later, Lagosians will have a new experience on the road, courtesy of the good thinking that has become a feature of governance in Lagos State, especially since the return to civil rule on May 29, 1999. His thinking cap permanently on his head, and in active mode, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, is taking mass transit a notch higher with the coming of electric buses to make commuting in the ‘Centre of Excellence’ more pleasurable and memorable. The buses are coming courtesy of the collaboration among the state government, Oando Clean Energy Ltd (OCEL) and Yutong Bus Company Ltd, a Chinese  bus maker. Oando PLC, the parent company of OCEL, has already taken delivery of some of the buses from Yutong for the concept phase of the project, complete with charging stations and other supporting infrastructure.

    An excited Sanwo-Olu said in his Twitter handle last week Sunday, that “I am excited to announce the first set of electric buses in the Lagos Mass Transit Master Plan as part of our increased effort to modernise every sector of Lagos. Thanks to our partnership with Oando Plc, Lagosians can expect a cleaner and greener public transportation system.”

    He added that “With the ability to travel 280km at full charge, taking into account our unique travel times in Lagos, our electric buses are a game-changer. With an average daily usage of 200km by existing BRTs, there is no need to fear that the buses can stop while in transit.”

    With this project, Lagos has blazed another trail in the transportation sector. On January 24, President Muhammadu Buhari commissioned the first phase of the Lagos blue rail project, a 13-kilometre stretch from Marina to Mile 2. The train has capacity of moving about 250,000 passengers daily. It would also reduce travel time significantly. The second phase of the blue line rail (Mile 2 to Okokomaiko) covers about 14 kilometres. Upon completion of the second phase, the blue rail would transport about 500,000 daily. There is also the longer red line from Alagbado to Marina, about 37 kilometres. The idea behind the rail projects is to provide alternative modes of transportation for Lagosians and reduce gridlock and the attendant trauma on the roads. They would also help prolong the lifespan of roads in the state.

    The government has continued to improve on ferry services too to boost water transportation. In like manner, Last Mile Buses are being provided to take people close to their destinations, among other innovations. The Last Mile buses  are expected to address the ‘Okada’ menace in the metropolis. At least 500 of such buses were launched in 2021. In all, about 5,000 are expected to service the state in the long run.

    I have said it several times when writing on the giant strides that Lagos State has been making, especially since 1999, that it is not just a matter of having money. It is true that by virtue of internally generated revenue (IGR), Lagos tops in the country. With an annual IGR of about N600.5bn, Lagos is the indisputable leader. We have to go by IGR because that is more reliable than federal allocation that not only fluctuates but could also come to an end whenever the nation restructures. But, Lagos’ modern-day prosperity is a product of meticulous planning, innovation, good thinking and what have you. It is not a thing served a la carte.

    In 1999 when the current political dispensation began, Lagos’s IGR was a paltry N600million per month, about N7.2 billion per annum. Some say it is more than that. Whatever it is, to have raised the IGR to its present enviable level in about 23 years is no mean task. Some states are also literally sitting on gold but they don’t know what to do with it because, every month, they expect money from the centre.

    Again, if we say Lagos is rich, its needs too are many. No other state in Nigeria receive the kind of visitors that Lagos receives daily, with many of them not intending to return to wherever they came from because of the opportunities in the state. If many other states’ chief executives in the country are as innovative and aggressive as Lagos on IGR, their stories too would have been different. But many of them simply wring their hands in frustration and bemoan their fate because they know that something would always come from the centre every month.

    Anyway, as with several such innovations, the introduction of the electric buses on Lagos roads has its implications. Electric vehicles (EVs) generally will reduce carbon emissions and increase efficiency. This means that Lagosians can bid bye to high fuel costs and welcome to cost-efficient transportation. In other words, the buses would have no need for petrol or diesel. This should lead to the natural question of what happens in a situation where EVs dominate the roads globally. We should be concerned as a major producer of crude oil.

    What I am saying is that the advent of EVs is both good and bad news to crude oil producers. Good news to countries that are proactive and bad news to backbencher countries like ours that would not do anything to mitigate our loss from crude sales until the very last minute. I believe other crude oil producers are already looking into how they can take advantage of this future trend. If I know our country well, we must be waiting for when we get to the bridge before crossing it. Regrettably, by that time, there might not be any bridge to cross!

    Perhaps the most profound consequence (even if unintended) of these latest innovations in Lagos is that it would make the political contest for the soul of Lagos

    even fiercer. Every attempt to make Lagos a mega city to watch is an open invitation to people who want to reap where others toiled to build. This and the seeming prosperity of the state are enough allures.

    But, rather than stay in their own states and insist on their state governments doing the right thing, or work towards enthroning good governance there, those who crave the soul of Lagos prefer to abandon their ‘Surulere’ for ‘Olorunsogo’. Since it is incumbent on people who speak in proverbs in their in-laws’ place to tell the meaning of the proverb/s, what I just said is that rather than embrace patience (Surulere) in bringing about change in their places, such people want to come and ‘take over’ a place that some people used their brains and sweat to build.

    Come to think of it; Lagos is not even Olorunsogo per se, knowing what it was like in 1999 and what it is today. It took some people’s ingenuity to bring it to where it is today. So, Lagos is not a place that had its palm kernels cracked for it by some benevolent spirits. If it has become an attractive destination for people all over the country, it is because of the hospitality of its original owners. If other places are as hospitable as Lagos, other Nigerians would go there to search for their daily bread. Yes, the degree of prosperity may not be like that of Lagos, but it certainly would not be as bad as making Lagos a do-or-die battleground that must be conquered at all cost at election times. Or, how come it is only Lagos that has become the much-sought-after bride that must be married at all cost?

    The truth of the matter, it bares restating for more clarity, is that Lagos is just like the foreign countries that our youths now rush to. I am talking of the ‘Japa’ syndrome that has seen many of our youths out of the country to more responsible climes in search of the proverbial greener pasture. Tired of becoming the perpetual beasts of burden of bad governance, the youths decided to vote with their feet. The same way many Nigerians are trooping to the ‘city’ (Lagos) in search of economic prosperity. Whereas economic prosperity abounds, even if in varying degrees, in all parts of the country.

    Be that as it may, there is no doubt that the state government is working towards accommodating these additions to the state’s transportation plan, building new roads and bridges, etc. Even then, it must continue to improve on the road infrastructure. The buses, whether the current BRT buses or the electric buses are not designed for bad roads. Driving them on rough roads is like punishing them. In fact, it is the easiest way to kill them fast. So, those in charge of road maintenance must be proactive in fixing bad roads in the state. They don’t have to wait till potholes become craters before moving to action.

    That Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the man who set the present developmental mode in motion in Lagos between 1999 and 2007 when he was governor eventually won the presidential election in February, despite all odds, is testimony that many Nigerians want him to bring his wealth of experience to bear at the national level. They are earnestly hungry for his coming to replicate at the national level, what he did in Lagos. Other things being equal, those who said ‘Edo no be Lagos’ would soon wish that ‘Edo be Lagos’. This is the message from the pan-Nigerian mandate that Tinubu received during the election.

    Although the deft moves made by Governor Sanwo-Olu during his reelection bid contributed to his success at the polls, there is no doubt that what he had on ground by way of achievements also spoke loudly for him. I was somewhat convinced that the governor would prevail because of what he has achieved in four years. It would have been like the biblical faith without work if all he had to offer during his fence-mending visits before the election were explanations and lame excuses. His reelection is good for continuity, especially in our kind of country where political office holders abandon projects begun by their predecessors due to pettiness. We had the same experience even in Lagos despite the fact that the state has been under the same ruling party since 1999.

    Now that Governor Sanwo-Olu’s mandate has been renewed, Lagosians expect more democracy dividend from his administration. That is the only way to make them continue to repose their confidence in the administration and the political vehicle that has continued to reign in Lagos since 1999, notwithstanding the unrelenting efforts of the ‘Olorunsogo’ school of thought people to hijack the state from the ruling party.

  • It’s hard not to like Wike

    It’s hard not to like Wike

    When he hosted President-elect Bola Tinubu on May 3 in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Governor Nyesom Wike again put on display his masterful gifts as a formidable host, effervescent raconteur, and bold and mesmerising public speaking. He is not quite an orator in the classical sense, not even in the ordinary sense, but he has an immense capacity to skewer and enthrall. In state banquets, he never associates with existing protocols; he sees members of the high table and the audience as an opportunity to indulge his gift as an anecdotist. For everyone he recognises in the audience or the high table, there is always an anecdote. He is never tired of lauding the role of one of his predecessors, Peter Odili, nor the wife, Justice Mary Odili, a former Justice of the Supreme Court. Indeed, had his predecessor Rotimi Amaechi managed to stay in his good books, there is no telling just how far he would go in smothering him with adulations, much of it laced with witticisms. With his troubadours in tow, there is always an earthy, jocose and fecund feeling around Mr Wike when he serenades his guests and excoriates his enemies.

    Last Wednesday, however, Mr Wike had little to say about his opponents, particularly those left in the benighted Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); instead, he was remarkably even-tempered and mild-mannered. Yes, he threw a barb or two at the PDP during the state banquet, but he mostly avoided his enemies and spoke glowingly about how he importuned the president-elect to visit Rivers and commission his 12th flyover and a Magistrate Court complex. He visited the president-elect in France and Abuja, he confessed, and in the end ensured the two-day visit became a reality. But it would be wrong to focus on his importunity alone, and then conclude that the governor possesses incomparable political sagacity. It is far more than that. Beyond Mr Wike’s flamboyance and sometimes elocutionary bombast, and far beyond his persistence or even feigned aggressiveness that masks a genial outlook and empathetic personality, is a shrewd political engineer with a genuine and consummate proclivity for building bridges across ethnic and religious divides. He loves politics, and has managed, with the help of his troubadours, a guttural voice, and an unquestioning gift of the gab, to infect nearly everyone with his inimitable passion.

    President-elect Tinubu has not disclosed publicly why he honoured Mr Wike’s invitation beyond declaring that a promise was a debt. He gave his word before the presidential election was conducted, and he again reiterated his commitment after the polls, especially after the governor had, on account of the APC, caused seismic damage to the political fortunes of PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate Peter Obi. Perhaps the president-elect undertook what to all intents and purposes was his first state visit because he and Mr Wike are kindred souls. Both are indomitable fighters for causes they believe in; both are exponents of realpolitik; and both do not flinch in the face of battle. But comparing their politics, the president-elect has proved more principled and consistent than his host. In terms of public speaking, as Mr Wike waxed lyrical last Wednesday, his guest must have wistfully gaped at him. What would the sturdier Asiwaju Tinubu not give to have a sizable portion of his host’s proficiency? The president-elect’s consolation is that more than any of his contemporaries, he outthinks, outmanoeuvres, and outfoxes everyone else. Both men obviously retain a healthy admiration for each other. Could they then make a formidable pair?

    Asiwaju Tinubu has not indicated publicly what he thinks about Mr Wike’s political future. Nor, beyond mouthing his loyalty to the PDP, has the Rivers governor said anything really significant about his future plans. He is immensely gifted, and as the president-elect hinted obliquely last Wednesday, Mr Wike’s accomplishments make it ineluctable to be of service to Nigeria in higher capacity. It may, therefore, have crossed the mind of the incoming president to lure the governor into his cabinet or something else grander. But has it also crossed the mind of Mr Wike? If so, in what capacity does he see himself operating? Should he join the Tinubu administration, the governor will then not be available for the ‘enemy’ in 2027, and his talent for grassroots mobilisation for the opposition would be neutered. In short, Mr Wike is perched dangerously on the horns of a dilemma. He has the option of staying put in the PDP and leading the charge for its rediscovery and renewal. He will recall that the president-elect was in that position too in 2007 when faced with the choice of joining the administration of his friend, the late Umaru Yar’Adua, or staying to rebuild and reposition the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Staying put in the ACN ensured, along with many other factors, that Asiwaju Tinubu is today president-elect. If zoning and rotational presidency endure, Mr Wike, who is about 55 now, will fancy the opportunity of taking a shot at the presidency 16 years down the line. So he will be anxious to know whether to work with the APC administration or stay back in the PDP.

    Mr Wike will be unable to replicate in Rivers what Asiwaju Tinubu executed in Lagos between 2007 and the 2023. So, there is no guarantee that as an outgoing governor, despite foisting his choice pick on the state, he could remain relevant long enough to achieve much higher political objectives. Joining the Tinubu administration will, therefore, only offer him short term guarantees. It will also mean burning his bridges thereby ensuring that a future return to the PDP would be nearly impossible. He should not see the capricious former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who has no fixed opinion on anything, as a role model. Rivers State is today PDP; Mr Wike could not leave for higher duties and still hope to call the shots, even in considerably muted capacity, in his successor’s administration. It takes so much more than just willing and wishing it to stay significantly relevant in Rivers, whether as a PDP man and former governor, or as a powerful member of the new administration in Abuja. His best bet is to stay and help reform and reposition the PDP. The opposition, not to say Nigeria as a whole, will be eternally grateful. Yes, should he remain in the opposition, he stands the risk of becoming irrelevant or diminished; but it is a far better risk to take than the enormously tempting APC gambit warming the cockles of his heart.

    It is hard not to like Mr Wike, what with his rich baritone voice, his bonhomie, his songs, swagger and dancing steps, his occasional waspish tongue, his affability that is almost second to none, comparable only to Asiwaju Tinubu’s, and his joyous combativeness which turns mortal political combats into delicious movie depictions of bloodied and bowed losers as well as pyrrhic victories. With him, there is no boring moment. And with him, notwithstanding his few inconsistencies and occasional lapse of principles, the observer gets the distinct feeling that life could not be more livable and agreeable. If he continues to play his cards adroitly, wary of the reckless and careless bluffs that undermine the joker card, the last may not have been heard of him.

    Bello and Kogi governorship conundrum

    Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State clearly hopes to win the November 11, 2023 governorship poll for the All Progressives Congress (APC). He is so confident of success that he concocted the victory of Usman Ahmed Ododo in a primary election purportedly carried out on March 14. For the sloganeering governor who rhapsodises inclusion and fairness, he ensured that Mr Ododo, his handpicked aspirant who hails from the same Kogi Central Senatorial District as he, and the same town to boot, won. Should Mr Bello’s candidate win the election, Kogi Central Senatorial District would produce governors in quick succession when Kogi West has yet to produce one. Kogi East under Governors Ibrahim Idris and Idris Wada had also produced a slew of governors while marginalising the other two senatorial districts. If Kogi East could do it in the past, why not Kogi Central?

    The primary that produced Mr Ododo was deeply flawed, and it had no pretext to be called a primary election. But the governor has moved very quickly to solidify his insular choice and present the APC national leadership and the president-elect with a fait accompli. He took the party’s standard-bearer in tow to visit both the president and the president-elect. The visits are a peculiarly Nigerian thing. The national leaders of the party are of course aware of Mr Bello’s political chicanery, but they probably lack the courage and wisdom to put the governor in his place and order a better supervised rerun. Both the president and president-elect are also unlikely to do anything about the flawed candidacy of Mr Ododo. They won’t lean on the governor to follow due process, especially when the party itself has been reluctant to sanitise its internal processes. And they won’t jump ahead of themselves to get the governor and the party to behave. They will let bad enough alone.

    The APC primary that produced Mr Ododo was a sham. But far beyond that replicated nonsense, the very idea of handpicking and backing a Kogi Central aspirant for the November race shows the governor to be dangerously anti-democratic, parochial and contemptuous of the national APC and the leadership of the party. Before his second term election, Mr Bello had given the impression that he would back power rotation. For a man enamoured of habitually telling untruths, it is tragic anyone in the state believed him. As it turned out, the governor did not even wait for endorsement or votes before he flagrantly conjured a questionable victory for himself to the shame of sensible Kogites. Violent and threatening in outlook, and wholly devoid of patience and liberal inclination, Mr Bello has become accustomed to seizing whatever he wants. He was gifted his first term by a conspiratorial group of APC top politicians; he then simply went ahead to snatch a second term in defiance of the rules of the game. In November, he will hope to reenact his unusual and demeaning playbook.

    Three main contenders have lined up for the Kogi governorship poll in November: APC’s Mr Ododo, the pawn; Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s Dino Melaye, the comedian; and African Democratic Congress (ADC) Leke Abejide, the sober. Of the three, Mr Abejide is the least controversial, and the most politically and ethically savvy and level-headed. The APC candidate is the product of a defective party process; he will likely be punished at the poll if Kogi East and Kogi West can lay aside the weights that burden and divide them. Mr Ododo’s Kogi Central constitutes less than 30 percent of the voting population; Mr Bello will hope that his talisman is potent enough to keep the other districts in perpetual conflict. The PDP’s Senator Melaye is so melodramatic that it is difficult to settle the order of unimportance between his theatrics and his frivolity. Flippant, irreverent, abusive, and gifted with boyish enthusiasm and a despairing lack of seriousness, neither he nor his dispirited party will be of help to his candidacy.

    The ADC’s Mr Abejide is regarded as a serious and gifted politician, but he is hoisted by a party that remains on the fringes of party politics in Nigeria, despite its capacity to turn heads in Kogi and punch above its weight. His only chance of winning is to hope that the national APC would defer to Mr Bello’s inanities and refuse entreaties to redo its primary. In addition, there are many aggrieved voters in Kogi East whose choices, particularly the heavy-spending and likable Murtala Ajaka, are waiting to show the governor how not to be insular. Should Mr Abejide reach some agreement with those who matter in Kogi East, it is hard to see Mr Bello’s strong-arm tactics prevailing in November. The election will be better policed than it was in 2019 when brazen electoral robbery was enacted to the dismay of all Nigerians and to the indifference of security agencies. This year will be different, and both BVAS and IReV balloting tools will castrate electoral robbers and their sponsors. And with many voters waiting to punish and embarrass the Kogi governor, regardless of the personal qualities of Mr Ododo, the election will be figuratively bloody.

    All Mr Bello relies upon is that the fait accompli he has presented the national leadership of the party and the president and president-elect will leave them with no choice but to back his candidate in order to retain Kogi in the APC column. That abysmal fait accompli worked for Kogi East when they also disregarded the feelings of other senatorial districts to entrench Kogi East candidates as governors in those unhappy days. Unfortunately but not unsurprisingly, Mr Bello does not have the wisdom and the foresight to break the mould. He appears to be gambling that the national leadership of his party would be willing to risk all they stand for and have accomplished in this election cycle to help his candidate win. How the governor expects his bosses in Abuja to lift a finger to help him, let alone travel down to Kogi to join his campaign, is hard to fathom.

    Obi averse to truth

    After many weeks of dithering and waffling, Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has finally confessed on Arise Television last Tuesday that the phone conversation he had with the founder of Living Faith Church Worldwide, David Oyedepo, shortly before the presidential election was true. Why did it take him so long? For a man and politician so averse to telling the truth, strangely even that confession was again festooned with half-truths.

    About a week after the leaked audio first surfaced in late March, and despite the contradictory statements by LP spokesmen, Mr Obi declared emphatically that the phone call was fake. Said he: “Let me reiterate that the audio call being circulated is fake, and at no time throughout the campaign and now did I ever say, think, or even imply that the 2023 election is, or was a religious war.” Instructively, Dr Oyedepo’s approach to the embarrassing leak was to simply evade the issue by declaring his political neutrality. Both men avoided the question of whether the phone call took place.

    Pressed by his interviewers on Arise TV to admit or deny the authenticity of the leaked audio, Mr Obi half-heartedly and evasively said: “Whatever you call it, whatever anybody wants to make of it, it is fine with me. All I can tell you is that I am not a religious or tribal bigot. I just said it; whatever they are making about this is their business. I have shown you examples, several examples this evening of things that were said about me that are false, from dual citizens, from detention, from treason….so whatever they make it.”

    Clearly, Mr Obi is uncomfortable with telling the truth. It took another leading question to wrest the truth from him. Hear him: “For me, let me even assume it happened. Do you think I can just pick a phone and say religious war? No, there must have been a conversation. I was even begging the bishop to help me to ask his people to vote which is what I was doing for six months. Begging. I wasn’t saying snatch it, kill it, take it, force it. I was even begging, which shows that I will continue to look for votes by begging.” This is truly numbing. Mr Obi had just confessed to lying, and he seems oblivious of the fact. Nor was he aware that the issue even transcended the matter of whether he described the election as a religious war or not. The question was whether the phone call took place. A man who tried to be president spent weeks evading a simple question, and as many weeks stoutly refusing to admit the truth.

  • Tinubu: Tempting transition triggers?

    Tinubu: Tempting transition triggers?

    In the Nigeria I shall have the honour and privilege to lead from May 29, workers will have more than a minimum wage. You will have a living wage to have a decent life and provide for your families.” – President Elect, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to Nigerian workers on the 1st May 2023.

    “My administration will collaborate with the Central Bank to harmonize the fiscal and monetary policy to achieve immediate stabilization of the value of the naira against the US dollars and other currencies and in the short term, strengthen the naira by boosting the supply of foreign currency and moderating demand. The short-term goal is to achieve a Naira/Dollar rate of N300/US$1 and gradually achieve a less than N200 rate over the next four years,” – President Elect, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

    This columnist knows a senior colleague, a cerebral, sagacious and strategic development consultant. He was sharing his experience with some of us up and coming colleagues in a convivial camaraderie in order to glean and learn in rendering services as consultants. In essence, one will be able to decipher and discern a real-life scenario from the usual hypothesized template taught in strategy execution classroom, even at Harvard Business School (HBS), to which this columnist is an alumnus. The savvy strategist was hired by an elected official of a province located within a West African context to help dissect and distil his manifesto into actionable strategic goals. These goals, in the emerging sub-field of development referred to as Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL), will be designed with appropriate measuring indices. These measuring indices called key performance indicators (KPIs) should be simple, measurable, achievable, realistic and time-bound (SMART). The cerebral development strategist went to work with his team. Interestingly, the presentation was made to the Governor-General Elect of the province who also came along with his team of cerebral men so that the whole exercise would be viewed, with comments and critiques, employing lenses of others who are competent to make core and crucial inputs. Finally, after about five sessions, the whole document showcasing impact, outcome and output indicators were sifted and streamlined. The Governor-General Elect was upbeat and profusely appreciated the team for a job well done promising to hit the ground running and also keep the team as a backend office seemingly to checkmate governance within the province. Incidentally, the team rounded up its assignment about two weeks to the inauguration of the Governor-General. The whole province was hopeful that the incumbent administration, incidentally of the same party make up as the incoming administration, will ensure a smooth take over of the reins of government, and ab initio, hit the ground running. According to this senior development consultant, and in his own words: “upon inauguration of the Governor-General, there was a lull. Resplendent reflexes expected of good governance taking cognizance of the crafted strategic document were not felt, seen, heard or tangible! The frequency of free flow of communication between the Governor-General and the strategic team was hampered; expectedly, the pressure of office had taken over. At last, the man in the saddle in the province confided in me that upon assumption of office, he discovered to his chagrin that all that glittered during the transition was no more golden; the fiscal bottom lines were not what the transition committee briefed him! In that wise, the implementation of the well-articulated and crafted strategic actionable goals was halted as the Governor-General could no longer hit the ground running as envisaged and promised. He had to devise extempore stratagem to navigate his way out of the unexpected quagmire. The man in the saddle then assured me of coming back to implementing the blueprint later. It has been more than 9 months, and there has been no shift in the status quo ante of governance in the West African province.” Any pertinent, salient and succinct lesson learnt from this story for the President Elect, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, taking cognizance of the ongoing transition between his team and that of the incumbent administration?

    Tempting Transition Titbits

    It is assumed that the President Elect and his own transition team know how dipping and deplorable the economy is presently. Given that he is an adept and adroit strategic thinker, he and his team will be well prepared to tackle expected gamut of the malaise on ground. Howbeit, he as the man that will be sitting on the saddle come 29th May 2023, needs to know that there are some salient and succinct facts that will not be made available to him and his own transition team now, no matter how intelligent they may be. It would be a matter of ‘the more you look, the less you see’. This is likely to be specifically and especially so when it comes to fiscal standing and status of government. Invariably, this vital point will determine appropriate steps to be taken when relating to sectors and agencies of government. In referring to agencies of government, in this context, one will be pinpointing Ministries, Departments and Agencies (known by the acronym MDAs). This columnist will like the incoming President to henceforth exercise caution, and be choosy in the use of diction expressing his intention in government. Albeit, the Renewed Hope 2023 is published – available online – the recent utterances of the President Elect, even raising hopes of Nigerians towards a positive, progressive and prosperous future. Paradoxically, many citizens are still skeptical and sarcastic, taking cognizance of the intended incoming government’s performance as preceding governments had equally promised much but delivered little in the past. Will this be any different? Time will tell!

    In the President Elect’s message of hope to the Nigerian workers, he saliently stated inter alia: “In the Nigeria I shall have the honour and privilege to lead from May 29, workers will have more than a minimum wage. You will have a living wage to have a decent life and provide for your families”, he was already promising more than the existing minimum wage for workers that many states are still struggling to pay their workers. The President Elect could promise better days ahead rather than an increase in their take home pay as the factual fiscal lines upon inauguration may negate this good intention he has at heart. Moreover, on the issue of Naira – US Dollar exchange rate, there is simultaneously an official and a parallel market. The latter is otherwise called “black-market”. Many analysts have wondered why there should be a parallel market dealing with foreign exchange resulting in some influential and highly connected people making money without actually producing goods and services. It is gladdening to note that the incoming administration of Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu intends arresting this apparent atrophy and anomaly. Putting it simply and squarely, the President Elect opined: “My administration will collaborate with the Central Bank to harmonize the fiscal and monetary policy to achieve immediate stabilization of the value of the naira against the US dollars and other currencies and in the short term, strengthen the naira by boosting the supply of foreign currency and moderating demand. The short-term goal is to achieve a Naira/Dollar rate of N300/US$1 and gradually achieve a less than N200 rate over the next four years …” Going this route, it is expected and envisaged that within a four-year span, the Naira to Dollar exchange rate will be less than N200 to the US$1. Presently, the black-market exchange rate available to less privileged Nigerians is between N730-740. Therefore, making a promise of ensuring an exchange rate of less than N200 to US$1, within 4 years in the saddle, could tantamount to a tempting trigger tingling to many itching ears. However, if seeming strategic uncertainties set in, this goal may be unattainable and may result in the distrust in the followership overtime thereby jeopardizing positive future engagement of the constituents.  

    Transition That Torchlights

    It is imperative and instructive for the President Elect to pay attention to details of his promises. It is even better for him to rehash the “Renewed Hope 2023 Action Plan for a better Nigeria” as a proof or mark of integrity in order for the followers or citizens to believe that he would work in sync and tune with the document. At this juncture, it is pertinent and salient to ask some questions. Has Tinubu’s team been able to break down the agenda to actionable strategic goals? Are there key performance indicators (KPIs) that are simple, measurable, achievable, realistic and time-bound (SMART)? Are there baselines in all major sectors that will ensure heads of Ministries Departments and Agencies (MDAs) know where (the bottom lines) they are taking off from as they assume office? In developmental strategic planning and execution, it is paramount to establish where you are or start off point (baseline). Target can then be set depicting where you intend to reach per time! Measurement can then be tracked by exploring and exploiting the KPIs to depict where you have reached! For instance, as a measure of economic growth, the exchange rate stability as targeted at N200 over a four-year time span can be tracked on a per annum basis. Like it was highlighted here in the last edition viz: “this columnist will consequently advocate, ab initio, a week’s retreat for all appointed ministers and special advisers. In it, the helmsmen, governors and president, will intimate them with a template of performance, failure to shape up, may result in being shipped out! Furthermore, a quarterly Retreat for Ministers and PS is recommended to ensure all appointees focus on deliverables with resources allocated and in tune with the Renewed Hope agenda.”

    • Ekundayo, Ph.D. – can be reached via +2348030598267 (WhatsApp only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com