Category: Sunday

  • From the Western frontline

    From the Western frontline

    It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…”  Thus, Charles Dickens famously opened his literary biography of revolutionary Europe. A Tale of Two Cities is a fabulous yarn about London and Paris. At that point in time, the two European cities were the twin-summit of western civilisation in all its glory and glittering contradictions. Yet Dickens, the supreme poet of urban squalor and muse of radical discontents, might as well have been writing about our own age, except that New York and London appear to have replaced London and Paris as the focal flashpoints.

          The world has entered a phase of radical dis-ease, of revolutionary and disconcerting paradoxes reminiscent of the approaching end of a historic era. We are far from the end of history, but not nearly as far from some history-defining endgame. Startling technological advancements cohabit with—and aids—political barbarity. The most advanced and refined of human societies also harbour the most extreme cases of regression into animal savagery.

      Pre-historic deprivation and destitution sit side by side with post-human paradise and sated, saturated bliss. While there are veneers of the First World in the old Third World, huge slabs of the Fourth World have invaded the First World, making nonsense of the old binary geopolitical polarities. Niger and Darfur jostle for attention with Tavistock Square and Aldgate.

          May you live in interesting times, prayed the wise and eternally inscrutable Chinese. No prayer could have been better answered, and in full measure, too. We surely live in interesting times. A new type of conflict, the first truly global war—for want of a better term—is beginning to envelope the entire universe.

      Unlike the old-type of warfare, this one is a war without defined battlefields or recognised combatants. The whole world is one vast battlefield and everyone a potential casualty. Mufti is often the uniform and there are no bugles heralding different armies or flags announcing national divisions.

     In such circumstances, the Geneva Convention about warfare seems tired and outworn. “Citizens” wage war against their own country in a startling redefinition of the whole notion of treason and patriotism; volunteers die in strange lands in a chilling re-enactment of the medieval struggle between Christianity and Islam. The enemy combatant may well be your neighbour, your friend, your colleague at work , a former schoolmate or even your own blood relation. Goodbye to 1984 and the world of big brothers. Welcome to the twenty first century, and to the brave new world of puppy tyrants.

        Whether this is a clash of civilizations, of cultures, of values, of barbarities, and even of fanaticisms and fundamentalisms is now beside the point. What is obvious is that international interaction is yielding to a new order. Buying into the advances of globalization, an anti-national, anti-modern and anti-consumerist species of Islam has been able to impose its own notions of warfare on the combined forces of western civilization.

      Knowing that it lacked the technological superiority to prevail on the strict and rigidly delimited battle-field, it has literally taken the war to the streets. Knowing that the crudest bomb can become a weapon of mass destruction in the crowded megalopolis of the west, it has struck terror into the hearts of millions by bringing the war “home”. And since it doesn’t have to clean up even in its own occupied territory, it has forced America into the quagmire of nation-building, a task for which it is particularly ill-suited by reasons of culture and political temperament.

            Like the proverbial fallen, hegemonic Islamism, down and out, flat on its back after centuries of repeated military and political humiliations from the combined forces of western ascendancy, has nothing to fear or lose. He that is down needs fear no further fall. But he that is down can bring others down, too. This variety of Islam may yet become the nemesis of a Christianity-based civilization.

       By slowly draining the west of its prosperity in a permanent conflict with horrendous casualties, by making nonsense of its technological supremacy through sheer attrition, by striking mortal fear into its dazed citizenry , and, above all,  by forcing it to compromise on the virtues of political plurality and tolerance that is at the root of its prosperity and civilization, militant Islam may end up up-ending the western giant.

    We are back at the Dickensian paradox, and the brilliant English novelist’s tale of revolutionary Europe. The moment of consecration of empire is also the moment of its demystification. The lesson of history is that the precise point a society gets fully into its stride, the moment it reaches the summit of its particular civilization is also the moment it begins its irreversible slide into decay and irrelevance.

    Britain was at the height of its imperial glory during the time of Dickens. The gifted novelist might have glimpsed the internal contradictions. But the profound irony was that at that point in time, his beloved country had also technically ceased to be a leading military power. It might have been the master of the seas, but even in Europe, the Crimean war had already showcased the future might of the Russian and Prussian (German) armies.

           Every Rome, then, has its own barbarians and whether the Islamic multitude will do for America and the west remains a matter for heated speculation. It might suffice to add that ancient Rome did not die as a result of a single mortal wound but of a thousand cuts. A nation’s torment is often etched on the face of its leading city. Like the great European cities of the late nineteenth century, New York and London have become the metropolitan show-cases of contemporary discontents. 

         Four days apart at the end of July, yours sincerely found himself tramping through the sweltering heat of New York at the height of summer only to be confronted by an early autumnal breeze in London. Originating from the mesmerizing chaos of Nigeria and post-colonial Africa, one has spent the better part of two decades living and working in several western countries and in the process earning the honorific title of a citizen of the western world. But a slow and steady transformation is beginning to take hold and to change the colour and complexion of life in the west, particularly after the tragedy of September 11, 2001.

           Perhaps the loss of western virginity has been long in coming. You cannot lay claim to being the arrow head of civilization and still maintain a political chastity. European imperialism and the triumph of western civilisation over native American culture did not flow from chastity but from intimidation and cruel pre-emption.  If the events beginning with the spectacular siege of the New York twin-tower led to a heightened awareness, a sense of insecurity and vulnerability in western societies, they have now culminated in a radical loss of innocence.

    Having reconciled itself to the fact that the struggle against Osama Bin Laden and his followers is not going to be a quick fix, New York wears its state of emergency very well. The entire country appears to have been placed on a permanent war footing with periodic bulletins and adjustment of alerts. Yet everything appears calm and unruffled on the surface, until you begin to probe the inner recesses of the society.

      The security presence at the airport remains discreet and unobtrusive, but the customized screening, if your number comes up, is often comically invasive. Nevertheless, an ill-judged joke could induce an attack of nerves and send you in the wrong direction.  If you are asked whether you carry any sharp object on your person, better not indulge in any metaphorical flight by pointing at your head as this could mean pushing you headlong into the screener.

    The journey from Newark’s Liberty airport to New York city proper via Kennedy airport remains pleasant and mind-soothing, until heat and traffic snarl take over. From Kennedy airport, you slip into Queens through Jamaica and then on to the subway from Brooklyn. Despite the surrounding filth and the shabby, claustrophobic milieu, the trains are still spotlessly clean and well-kept. The subway tramps are still there, so is the teeming multitude of the multi-racial underclass, a rainbow coalition of assorted crooks and con-men.

      Yet humanity still trumps villainy. You ask for a location and you are immediately surrounded by earnest guides and professional pathfinders. United by destitution and deprivation, the beatitude has no time or leisure to sort itself into primordial identities of race and religion. Overhead in the well-appointed suburbs and what is known as middle America, a bible-thumping fundamentalism, a homogenizing leviathan rules the roost.

              If you survive the sweltering heat and manage to turn into the right corner in Brooklyn, you may yet find a Nigerian restaurant serving steaming pounded yam dish. This is not mainstream eating culture, but a kind of counter-cultural alternative life style moodily and testily tolerated. Unlike the cosmopolitan and adventurous European taste, the American palate is more conservative and this gastronomic regression is viewed as a quaint anomaly, a lapse of refinement.

       The covenanted messianism  which sees America as the future of humanity often leads to a stifling cultural conformism and a unique closure of the American mind, but it also coalesces into a granite uniformity of purpose once America is under threat.

    As it reacts with panic and fright to the eruption of Islamic militancy and mayhem on its shores, the British political establishment may rue the absence of the uniformity of purpose and the manufactured consensus that appear to serve America so well in moments of crisis. But this will be to compound an original error of judgement with an obtuseness of purpose. Britain is not America.

    Over the centuries, and through much strife and stress, Britain has developed a culture of political plurality based on tolerance, compromise and fair-mindedness. In the process, it has evolved perhaps the first genuinely multi-cultural society that the world has seen. Extremists of all hues may from time to time tug at the fabric, the compromises may often seem like shabby collusion and complicity with evil but it works most of the time. By going to war with Iraq without the support of crucial pillars of the nation and with a manufactured consensus, Tony Blair substituted  American culture for  British norm.

             The dire consequences of that spectacular miscognition have arrived, with fear and unease enveloping Britain after the tragedy of July 7, with the militarization of a gentle society and the growing voice of right wing fanatics braying for blood and calling for a final solution to the immigrant menace. It is tempting to conclude that after running with the hare and hunting with the hounds, Britain has been hoisted by its own imperialist petard.

      But that will be a disservice to the society of good manners, of gentlemanly restraint and wise discretion. It is these golden virtues that produced the little Lagos of Peckham and what is known a tad derisively as Londonistan. Whatever its colonial past and current imperfections, Britain is shinning example of multiculturalism.

           That tradition now seems to be under grave threat. The kind of troop and security deployments that have been seen on the streets of England, particularly in London, in the wake of the recent tragedy must not be allowed to remain for long. A city with heroic antecedents, London, over the centuries, has seen many troops. But they were of a different hue: Magna Carta partisans, defenders of liberty and freedom, militant mobs, revolutionary crowds, chartists, Cromwellian stalwarts, Hyde Park tormentors of absolutism, freedom fighters fleeing from tyranny, exiled heroes of democracy and barons of sundry barricades.

            It is from this illustrious and noble tradition that Britain must now draw profound resources and reserves of strength and resilience in the confrontation with an Islamism mired in the grand dream of a  past  Al- Andalus rather than the great vision of a future El Dorado . In doing this, Britain must revert to its traditional role of a wiser elder sibling to an America of rampart militarism and bare knuckle reflex.

    While military might is often decisive in war, it is intellectual and moral might that often carries the day in a confrontation of cultures. As the Iraqi debacle has shown, when Britain apes American militarism, the world is a less safe and healthy place, and the whole of western civilization is endangered. If the initial misjudgement is allowed to be compounded by further errors of perception, if a species of Islam finally drives the west to become its mirror image, then we might as well bid goodbye to Western civilization as we know it.

    •First published in Africa Today, August 2005.

  • My Malaysia musings (1)

    My Malaysia musings (1)

    The Athenian Oath: “. . . thus in all ways, we will transmit this City, not
    only not less, but greater and more beautiful than it was transmitted to us.”

    Having spent about four years working and studying in Singapore, this columnist was dreaming and desiring sojourning in the beautiful country of the Kiwis, New Zealand. At the conclusion of my master’s degree in Singapore (though I studied in an Australian university, Monash, whilst residing in Singapore), the University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand offered yours sincerely admission to study for a PhD in Management. Alas, my visa application was turned down by Immigration New Zealand despite paying my full fees to the institution and having my first son, Samuel Ekundayo, already enrolled for his own PhD in New Zealand! This is part of the angst and albatross of carrying Nigeria’s passport!! Howbeit, it was unknown to me this would turn out to be a case of all things working together for my good. I was intuitively in tune to seek admission for my doctoral research studies in Malaysia. I was offered admission to conduct my PhD research studies in Universiti Tun Abdul Razak (UNIRAZAK), Kuala Lumpur (KL), Malaysia. It was not accidental that my supervisor was not only curious about my research proposal and topic, he told me pointblank, at the first meeting, that my topic was archaic to modern leadership studies. Yours sincerely was aghast! He went further to inform me that I was free to switch to another supervisor anytime. I left his office resolutely refusing to switch him for another supervisor in the university. One day I went to meet him in his office, and I engaged him by asking if he was to counsel an intending applicant for doctoral research in leadership studies, what are the likely themes or topics? He sat up and straightly gazed at me. He started reeling out such topics as: transformational leadership, servant leadership, strategic leadership, followership, etc. I headed for the university library and started surfing the shelves, and ultimately, laid my hand on a newly published book written by a Harvard professor, Professor Barbara Kellerman. It was a classic treatise on followership laced with case studies globally. I could not put the book down until I consumed the entire content, and was in love with followership, an emerging and evolving topic in leadership studies. I went back to meet my supervisor, Professor Khairuddin Damhoeri. informing him that I would be going all out for followership studies for my doctoral research. Surprisingly, he got up from his seat and reached for my hand in a warm handshake Thereafter, he made certain declarations, more or less prophetic! I was amazed: he being a Muslim whilst I am a Christian. Till date, almost all the utterance of that day has come to pass. Ultimately, it was record breaking experience in the Graduate School of Business, UNIRAZAK, KL, Malaysia as yours sincerely completed his PhD research study within 3 years; there was a mutual understanding between Damhoeri and myself that he confessed to me that his colleagues were of the opinion he should not let me go so early to which he pointedly and promptly posited that yours sincerely had adhered to all his directions and dictates. In essence, there was no holding back to my being awarded my PhD with a time span of two years and ten months!

    Lessons Learnt

    In the emerging field of monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL), of which this columnist is a budding practitioner, scholar and author, there is a monicker referred to as “lessons learnt”. In essence, systematically, lessons learnt can be surmised or summed up as: what works; what does not work; why it does nor work. In my mission to Malaysia, it was not just to conduct a PhD research study in followership studies cum servant leadership but to learn and glean as an exemplary and courageous follower. In that society where I studied and resided for three years, there were certain crucial tangibles that are worth adopting or adapting, as the case may be, within Nigeria’s context. It was unsettling and upsetting rehashing in the ears of the present day digitally inclined youthful Nigerians that Malaysians came to Nigeria and having been tutored about the economic gain of the oil palm seed whilst in Nigeria, went back gleefully to their country with some of the seeds and today, Malaysia is the 2nd best palm oil producer globally. Looking at it from another perspective, Malaysians are the No. 1 palm oil producer in the world today! How? Many years ago, Malaysia, having observed keenly that land and labour were (are still) cheaper in Indonesia (neighbouring country), decided to heavily invest in humongous oil palm plantations in Indonesia. Wisdom. Reading the supposed frustration and angst in the lines penned down by Tunji Adegboyega in the Nation (Sunday) of 9th April 2023, he highlighted thus: “sweeter than crude: food for thought for incoming government: Nigeria’s abandoned palm oil sells for $600 per barrel.” Presently, this is far greater than the current global price of crude oil. In my own field experience in Malaysia, accompanied by my wife, a Malaysian volunteered to drive us from KL to oil palm plantations within Malaysia. It was both enlightening and educating seeing oil palm seedlings in nursery beds; witnessing ones that had been transplanted from nursery to the plantation; and finally, ones that had matured with fruits on top. Most memorably sweet was the species that we were told originated from a professor in Indonesia that could mature to fruiting in 24 months (2 years)! Yes, I and my wife witnessed these special species bearing up to 4 to 6 fruits on one oil palm tree at once! Moreover, a tree could produce these same sets of fruits twice per year! Furthermore, the oil palm seeds (kernels) in this special species are smaller resulting in production of more palm oil than the old species that takes upward of 4 years to fruiting. Poser: What stops Nigeria from replicating this in virtually all the southern states in Nigeria? I know that many would argue in line with old agriculture theories that are atavistic and archaic to modernity. In further research, this columnist discovered that Malaysia invested a lot in research and development (R & D) in oil palm production to the extent of ensuring that up to 70% of arable land in Malaysia has oil palm on it. This feat was achieved through the application of a special fertilizer applied to the soil from one district to the other to ensure oil palm seeds flourish unhindered. This can be adopted in the context of Nigeria’s southern states.

    There are more to garner and gather in the oil palm value chain anywhere in the world. Malaysia and Indonesia are maximally tapping into these vast and veritable vaults. For instance, it was a government policy not to sell palm oil in the open market in Malaysia. The crude palm oil is processed further into refined palm oil just like crude oil is refined to petrol, diesel, kerosene, etc. It is a pity that Nigerians elatedly buy the ‘King Brand’ oil as vegetable oil (called ‘ororo’ in local Lagos parlance). Candidly, it is a refined (bleached) palm oil derivative of Malaysia imported to Nigeria. It is high time we woke up from the sore slumber that the crude ‘oil doom’ had subjected us to. In addition, biodiesel has been a by-product of oil palm in Malaysia and as far as 2019; the production of biodiesel was forecasted to reach a whopping 1.56 billion litres (Ref: https://www.malaysiakini.com/knowmypalmoil/485070). Imagine Nigeria obtaining diesel from oil palm production and processing taking cognizance of the present market price of diesel and the demand for the product locally. In the second part of this series, there will be more to write on the impact of agro-allied resulting in industrialization in Malaysia. This has further boosted the socio-economic outlook of the Asian country and endeared the rural and semi-urban dwellers to the government of the day as mass urban migration is not popular in Malaysia. My PhD supervisor, Professor Damhoeri, who once consulted for the Prime Minister’s Office, intimated me with these details whilst showing me some statistics bordering on demographics vis-à-vis direction of voting in elections on his desktop as far back as 2011. This is one key reason for the inability or difficulty of the opponents to record victory over the ruling party in any national election from the heydays of Dr. Mahathir Mohamad (Dr. M), 4th and 7th Prime Minister of Malaysia, who is referred to as “Father of Modernisation” by his teeming admirers and adherents.

    Conclusion

    Interestingly and intriguingly, Nigeria will be entering into an exciting phase come 29th May 2023 as the country will usher him a new president, in the person of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the erstwhile Governor of Lagos State. He has vehemently and vividly pointed the way to a government of national competence. If his antecedent and pedigree whilst serving in Lagos State many years back will be anything to reckon with, Nigerians may be in for a surprise as to the composition, capacity and cerebral acumen of his team for the towering and titanic task of tilting the scale proactively and positively, thus ensuring steering the ship of state out of economic eclipse, political pillory and security scare that she is enmeshed in presently. In this vein, it is useful to remind the leaders that will be mounting the saddles in the executive, legislature and judiciary at the federal and state levels, of the epochal incident that occurred in ancient Athens, Greece about 2,000 years ago. The Greeks, even in biblical times, were renowned for wisdom. Historically, the young people of old Athens, Greece upon attainment of 17 years of age, would take the Athenian Oath as a mantra mandating commitment to civic responsibility and decorum. Accordingly, the outcome was a positive impact in the society that culminated in leaders across the world acquiescing to the lines of the oath as a measure of probity, transparency and accountability in public office in any clan, county, community and country. Remarkably, of the lines of the Athenian Oath, the one frequently quoted is: “. . . thus in all ways, we will transmit this City, not only not less, but greater and more beautiful than it was transmitted to us.” {Ref: Organizational Assessment and Improvement In The Public Sector (American Society for Public Administration Series in Public Administration and Public Policy), authored by Kathleen M. Immordino, PhD, p. 78}. Any implication for Nigeria nascent democracy taking cognizance of the lines of this ancient oath? Time will tell, particularly, as followers watch for the steps of the incoming president. Will he exhibit and exemplify expected reflexes in good governance that will ensure that Nigeria is better than when he took over, six months or one year from now? Will a typical follower, within Nigeria’s context, be able to feel, see, touch and embrace the desired transformational change he or she longs for?

    •Ekundayo, can be reached via +2348030598267 (WhatsApp only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com

  • Of Labour Party’s multi-dimensional travails lying is the worst

    Of Labour Party’s multi-dimensional travails lying is the worst

    The expression: “the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree”, often used to describe how children tend to inherit the characteristics of their parents, will be most appropriate in describing what the Labour party has become since Peter Obi  assumed its leadership.  So comprehensively does he now epitomize it that his chief critic, Reno Omokri, could only this past week, opine that “he  has taken the party from zero to hero in less than one year”. Unfortunately, however,  that has not been for salutary purposes because he equally transfered to the party, his lying dexterity. The manner in which he goes everywhere, crying about his stolen mandate, it is important that we examine this dexterity to some extent. This piece will do that and show how Mr Obi has been lying to cover his tracks. He has severally pleaded ‘ignorance’ in trying to avoid responsibility for his many legal infractions, forgetting, as they say, that ignorance is no defence in Law.

    Reporting on his ‘opaque and illegal activities’ which are now covered in what has come to be known, the world over, as the Pandora Papers, PREMIUM TIMES exposed Mr. Obi’s secret businesses and how he broke Nigeria’s law in at least three ways: “One, that he continued to hold his position as a director of NEXT International (UK) Limited, 14 months after becoming the governor of Anambra State in contravention of Section Six of the Code of Conduct Bureau and Tribunal Act. Two, that he set up complicated layers of secrecy to hide his offshore holdings he did not declare to the Code of Conduct Bureau, thereby breaching Section 11 of the Fifth Schedule of the 1999 Constitution, and, three, that as governor  he was  operating a foreign account in breach of the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria”.

    He initially deliberately went on a tangent in his response, claiming he was not corrupt  even when Premium Times did not so allege. However,  pressed further by showing him their findings, Obi could no longer hold on to his denials.

    Reported the publication:”he did not deny failure to comply with the law with regards to asset declaration, operation of a foreign account, and directing a private company as a governor. He, however, claimed  that he was ignorant of the law. “I don’t declare what is owned with others. If my family owns something I won’t declare it. I didn’t declare anything I jointly owed with anyone” claimed Obi, contrary to the position of the Constitution, which expressly stipulates the declaration “of all assets, whether jointly or partly owned”. Leaked records will later show that Obi is the sole, ultimate beneficial owner of the offshore companies. So he lied by claiming to be a part-owner”, wrote Premium Times.

    Asked by Kadaria Ahmed on a TV programme why he invested $30M of Anambra state funds in a family business, Peter Obi claimed that the company belonged to his parents, and he had no dealings in it after he became a public officer. His words: “I brought International Breweries into Nigeria and as a Governor of a state, they built a greenfield facility in the state and they came to me and said ‘as our partner, as if he is the state, we want you to own 15 per cent of this company’, and I said to them ‘No, right now, I am the Governor of a state. I know the future of this brewery, and I want the state to own 10 per cent and since I’m no longer involved in the company, they can own five per cent. I invested several billions in banks, including banks where I have shares. I was investing for the future of the state; it doesn’t matter whether I have shares or not. If I have the opportunity of building the future of the state, wouldn’t I have done that?”

    Words, words, mere empty words.

    A consumate dissembler, Obi had also claimed that he left N75B cash for Governor Willie Obiano, his successor. This is what Sahara Reporters on that:”One of the State officials told SaharaReporters that, while some interests had seen fit to spread the misleading information that Mr. Obi handed over N75 billion in cash, the same people failed to tell the public that the former governor left his successor the financial burden of finding money to pay for N185 billion for contracts awarded by him, some of them in the very last hours of his tenure.” The official  further stated that Mr. Obiano’s administration had already paid N35 billion on projects inherited from Mr. Obi”.

    Governor, Charles Soludo who succeeded Obiano would later say, concerning Obi’s ‘investments’ that “the purported investment by Peter Obi, is worth next to nothing”, adding “I think there was something I read about somebody speculating about whatever investment. With what I’ve seen today, the value of those investments is worth next to nothing”.

    That is the cash and the investments Obi will not allow Anambrarians rest about.

    With the above as premise for our thesis, let us now quit ancient history, and talk about Peter Obi and the 2023 Presidential election in which he placed a distant third, beaten with over 2.5 million votes by the winner, but will yet give Nigerians no breathing space over his so-called stolen mandate.

    In the meantime, while his Obidients are making a nuisance of themselves, singing about a ‘stolen mandate’, he is at the tribunal but without a semblance of a table showing the votes with which he defeated the second placed Atiku Abubakar, not to talk of the winner. Rather than perambulate, let us simply do a contextual analysis of one of the Obidients’ Press Releases, to show what a pack of liars they are; all in the make of their Patron Saint Peter Gregory Obi. We present as sample, a Press Release signed on behalf of the Labour party by the duo of  Diran Onifade and one Dr Yunusa Tanko.

    Titled “APC’s Endless Subterfuge Must Stop”, it reads as follows, with my comments in bracket:

    “It appears the All Progressives Congress’ desperation to grab and retain power by foul means has refused to go away more than a month after they have grabbed the election as they planned. – (Here Obidients talk of ‘desperation to grab and retain power’, but without showing how).

    “While we are toeing the constitutional path to retrieve our mandate, those who have truncated the wishes of the majority of Nigerians have recoursed to mischief and endless subterfuge to continue to hold on to what they know does not belong to them”.

    (The Obidients are here claiming that they are toeing constitutional path to retrieve their mandate. (Since when did going the rounds of Arise and Channel’s television stations to have Obi’s lies given a life, or their resort to incomparable rudeness on social media, transmogrify to constitutional means of retrieving a non-existent mandate?).

    “From the show of shame in Port Harcourt to the drama in the Ibom Air aircraft, both of which they contrived, they have now moved to the circulation of a deep fake audio file aimed at promoting religious tension in the country. (Nigerians must thank God it didn’t occur to them to hijack the Ibom aeroplane or endanger the passengers more than their man did that day. Now they are talking of  a deep fake audo file when Nigerians are still salivating over the discussion between a thoroughly obsequious “ Yes Daddy” wannabe president and one of his many Rasputins. Nigerians: just imagine that man for your president!).

    “All these are meant to serve no other purpose than egregious mischief aimed at demarketing Peter Obi.  If the goal is to create a credibility problem, the ploy has failed woefully. Peter Obi has long been on record as the only presidential candidate who has urged the Nigerians electorate not to vote for him on the basis of religion or tribe”.

    (Without a doubt, these ones can  attempt to lie to the dead. Where is that Nigerian who does not know that Peter Obi weaponised religion and ethnicity in his campaigns; the only reason he was able to get a quarter votes in 16 states?)

    “ We will therefore like to advise our beloved Nigerian people to remain focused on the task to take back the mandate we know was freely given to Peter Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed through legitimate means.That is more important than to expect  those who ran election on forged credentials and even fake Bishops to stop faking. They cannot stop being fraudulent because that is who they are”.

    (It will be a colossal shame if Obidients do not yet know that Nigerians have already realised that Peter Obi is nothing but an archetypical Igbo trader, in suit.

    That was the reason those who voted Labour in millions at the Presidential election, North and South of Nigeria, simply deserted both him and his party in droves in all the subsequent elections. Not even in Anambra state where he was governor for 8 years could Labour win majority of seats in the state legislative election. Nigerians have equally seen that he is merely window dressing; going to the tribunal where all he is seeking would best be described as mere academic reliefs for which the court has neither the locus nor the time to grant. The situation is worsened by the fact that he showed no factual basis for his claim of winning the election. There is no table showing he votes collated by his agents as against those collated by INEC. He can neither plead what was not front – loaded, nor can the court go on a voyage of discovery to grant him what he did not ask for.

    Add to that, the fact that Peter Obi was not  even a candidate known to law in the 2023 Presidential election as he was not a Labour party member but that of the PDP as at the date he claimed to have emerged Labour party’s presidential candidate.

    As things stand today, Peter Obi should honourably withdraw his case at the tribunal to enable him have quality time for the mother of all cases waiting for him in the United Kingdom.

  • In the interim……

    In the interim……

     In September 1993 as Nigeria lurched towards another full blown military dictatorship despite the exit of General Ibrahim Babangida in controversial circumstances barely a month earlier, this writer wrote a piece in Tempo the underground anti-military magazine. Titled Interim Bridge Over Troubled Waters, the article gave the Interim National Government of Ernest Shonekan a few more weeks to survive and the reasons why.

      The military hegemony that scuttled Abiola’s presidential mandate had not really left. They had merely retreated to reassemble their scrambled wits. They would be back. And back they were, in a question of weeks. On November 17, 1993, General Sani Abacha struck and swept the interim contraption into the trashcan of history.

       The country was at a dangerously low point, militarily, politically and culturally. The annulment had opened up a wide fissure in national cohesiveness. In a futile bid to hang on to the poisoned chalice, Ernest Shonekan began stalling and stonewalling. Even after a landmark ruling by the late Justice Dolapo Akinsanya abrogated the constitutional validity of the interim government, Shonekan, a lawyer, was in Port-Harcourt  asking the judiciary to steer clear of a matter beyond their judicial competence.

      Midmorning on November 17, 1993, General Abacha led a coterie of senior officers including the recently departed Donaldson Oladipo Diya to put the Interim man out of his misery. The first sign of trouble was when a group of soldiers led by a famously swashbuckling colonel summarily yanked off the state flag on Shonekan’s official car while General Abacha and his colleagues went in to ask Shonekan to do the needful.

     It was a tense and teary confrontation.  It was said that the UAC boardroom wizard was so miffed by the discourtesy and brusque disrespect that he chose to be driven to Lagos throughout the night rather than take the opportunity of a flight offered him. Having served its purpose, the interim contraption had become history.

     The fault was not only in the stars of the former UAC boardroom guru. It was also in the dynamics of the very events that threw him up. The success of failure is perhaps the most appropriate paradox to describe the dynamics of events that led to the emergence of the mild-mannered, urbane and reticent Ernest ‘Degunle Shonekan as the interim leader of Nigeria in perhaps the most difficult period in our transition from military rule to civilian governance.

       Having been chairman of a Transition Council with the stated brief to successfully midwife the transition from military rule to full blown democracy after General Babangida’s transition programme began to look like the cruel hoax it really was, Ernest Shonekan ought not have been saddled with the task of ruling the country after the entire exercise collapsed with the annulment of the election it was supposed to supervise.

      It was akin to rewarding failure. But the military, as the indisputable masters of Nigeria at that point in time, needed somebody they could completely trust to hold their colonial booty in trust while they return to the drawing board. Having been chummy with many of its leading lights, having played squash with them, not to talk of waivers in lucrative real estate deals, the apolitical and some will say anti-political  Ernest Shonekan fitted the bill perfectly.

      In the event, the interim government was dead on arrival. Beyond further confusing and disorienting the political class, it was never meant to usher in new elections after six months. The collapse of a Transition Programme after seven years of ribald rigmarole sustained by cunning and treachery is a major state failure which could only be redeemed by countervailing forces. The interim government was a civilianization of incompetence with the sole purpose of perpetuation of the military status quo.

    Read Also: Afenifere USA opposes interim govt, urges Tinubu to unite Nigeria

      Yet despite the manifest and glaring failure of the interim contraption and the inability of its proponents to appreciate the dire wages of elite failure in a major national project, it is bizarre and bewildering that some influential Nigerians are still pinning their hopes on an interim government as the solution to our political problems.

      If the early proponents of this strange fixation with extra-constitutional tinkering with the political process can be excused on the grounds of misguided patriotism particularly at a point when General Buhari appeared bent on taking the country down the road to Mogadishu, nothing can justify such calls now that the transition project appears to have given birth to a new political order, irrespective of the birth defects and whatever the ill-health of the newborn. You cannot abort a new baby.

      The call for an interim government is a semantic and constitutional anomaly which has no place in an evolving democratic order, no matter its teething problems. It is a reflection of an abiding fascination with militarism. But it is also a strategy of false containment against brutal reality. In actual fact, the complete collapse of an order, whether democratic or military, has no place for the interim. Nigeria was saddled with an interim regime because the military still retained the initiative.

      When a military organogram collapses having exhausted its historic and political possibility such as we witnessed with the sudden and abrupt termination of the Abacha regime, it is only a fresh beginning which can stave off an apocalyptic meltdown.

      It should be recalled that in his maiden broadcast to the nation after the death of General Abacha, General Abdulsalaam Abubakar mooted the idea of concluding the widely discredited transition programme of his predecessor based on phony elections and self-succession.

      But he was swiftly countermanded by those who have put him there and forced to beat a hasty retreat. Had a more benign or visionary faction of the military succeeded in facing down General Abacha, what we could have had was either a swift restoration of Abiola’s mandate or a new order depending on the balance of forces.

      Almost three decades after, the new generation of officers and men of the Nigerian armed forces must be commended for having the courage and foresight to resist the calls for military intervention from some misguided youths and other aberrant factions of the political class. They now come better equipped in the professional sense and more intellectually endowed than their professional forebears.

      Global awareness about an emergent knowledge society which depends more on brains and emotional intelligence and the Nigerian tragedy must have furnished them with the hindsight that in a multi-ethnic and multi-cultural nation seething with multi-sector polarities, the irruption of military force into a political contest for hegemony can only trigger a chain of events the end of which no one can predict.

      The unfolding   Sudanese calamity lends a heavy credence to this supposition despite the glorious heroics and derring-do of the average Sudanese citizen in the last four years. Old Sudan has already fractured as a result of the mismanagement of ethnic and religious diversities by its ruling Arabized caste.

       But this fracture has not prevented two reactionary and reprobate factions of the hegemonic military/militia caste that has held the nation to ransom since partition from Egypt from coming to blows on the streets of Sudan in an apocalyptic endgame which has led to the entire country foaming with blood.

      Having preyed and predated on the country’s natural resources for so long, they are completely inured to the rationale of modern governance beyond their own struggle for power supremacy. The result is the human catastrophe we are witnessing on the streets of Khartoum in all its biblical magnitude with heavy weaponry bought for the protection of the nation being trained on it and on public institutions.

      Ruled by a bandit caste of Arab-descended conquistadores, Sudan is a classic metaphor for how not to do a modern state in postcolonial Africa. There are many African nations following suit. Somalia has been virtually stateless for over thirty years, except for a fraught reawakening. The Congo has never really known any peace since independence.

    They have lent credence to the joke in international diplomatic circuits that the Black person doesn’t do big cities or big states either. If you point at the mighty empires and major kingdoms of pre-colonial Africa, they will point your attention to the fact that the operative word is “pre-colonial”.

      In Nigeria, the contradictions are so finely nuanced, so minutely discriminated and so overdetermined that it has so far proved impossible for any dominant faction of the political elite to maintain a hegemonic stranglehold on the rest of the nation. It is a negative equilibrium and whoever tried to dominate the country for long has always come to a perilous end as a result of countervailing pressures.

      The countervailing forces also dominated the last elections and made it impossible for the eventual winner to have absolute dominion over the whole of the nation. As many commentators have noted, it was perhaps the most competitive election in recent years and the one that reflected the will of the people the most. The National Question may be resolving itself in the most unexpected and dramatic manner, through mutually antagonistic sovereignty of the indigenous people of Nigeria.

      The multi-ethnic and multi-cultural colonial behemoth without an overarching vision of the nation is a classic recipe for political and economic underdevelopment, if not permanent chaos. Short of unbundling the mosaic and allowing the different ethnic groups go their separate ways, which is a virtual impossibility, concerned patriots must appreciate it when the mammoth heaves in the right direction and make the right alignment.

     The 2023 elections were not perfect. But they are a long way from the obtuse and criminal imposition by the executive which was the norm in an earlier phase. For those who may not know, it has taken a costly and bloody struggle to wrest Nigeria from the octopoid embrace of our former military despots and their various civilian adjutants.

    When they join or instigate the calls for an interim government, it is because the game is not going according to plan. When they press deluded and starry-eyed youths into disruptive service, it is because they sense that they have been outsmarted in their old game of dividing the political class in order to rule them.

      Something is stirring in Nigeria. Even where it seems that the different nationalities are going their different ways, the centre is holding. It is a kind of competitive and self-assertive democracy which could well be a prelude to a more beneficial renegotiation of the terms of association or a more perfect union if the dynamics permit.

      Almost thirty years after Nigerian youths with bare fists fought the despotic might of the military on the streets of Lagos in protests against the annulment of the June 12 presidential election and the imposition of an interim government, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. In waves after human waves reminiscent of the Chinese army of the early fifties, they launched themselves against the tanks and armoured vehicles. Many perished and others were ruined for live.

      It is in the nature of history. As it is said, men and women fight for certain ideals. But at the end of it all, what they have fought for is not what has come to the fore. It is then left for others to pick up the struggle for a better society and a better world. Here is wishing all our readers a happy Eid el fitr.  

  • The sweet, sweet wine of Ozalla

    The sweet, sweet wine of Ozalla

    To the enchanting and scenic landscape of Ozalla in deep and rural Edo State this past Tuesday morning for the investiture of Dr Uyi Oduwa-Malaka as the Uzoyare of Ozalla Kingdom by his Royal Highness, the Onotare of Ozalla kingdom, Abraham Aikpokpo Akhigbe, (Okpamen VIII).

    As a starry-eyed youth, yours sincerely caught the travelling bug or Sokugo, the wandering disease, while listening to tales of adventures and astral travelling from itinerant Fulani tribesmen as they traversed the whole Yoruba firmament with their cattle.

      Armed with only their pole guide and generous doses of some native concoctions, these intrepid wayfarers soaked the juvenile imagination with bone-chilling tales of adventures and miraculous encounters with strange animals as they descended on the southern coast from the arid and parched plains of the Sahelian desert.

      As the fabled Benin forest opened up to the rustic Savannah this wet and blustery April morning, yours sincerely was suddenly overwhelmed by a feeling of nostalgia. To get past Benin City proper to the Bye pass was a hellish proposition of hooting vehicles and yelling humanity snared in a tormenting tortoise of traffic.

      The arterial road to Auchi and the north of the nation had witnessed a significant deterioration since the last time one journeyed on the road. That was about ten years earlier. Now it was pock-marked and crater-ridden forcing the driver to undertake some hair-raising manoeuvring which would have been out of place in a normal clime.

     The driver, a daredevil racing buff of old Edo extraction, couldn’t care a hoot. Neither, it seemed, could the police orderly. His mandate, beyond running occasional political commentaries to the raucous delight of the portly driver, was to deliver two aging Yoruba notables to Ozalla in tolerable condition.

           Yours sincerely had been reduced to a carping and complaining wreck a few kilometres into the journey. The driver also concluded at this point that it may be advisable to take the Ifon-Oluku junction alternative route on the return stretch.

       “And this is the road Adams also takes from his village to Benin?” Yours sincerely finally exploded to no one in particular. My amiable companion in the car, a political heavyweight, former senator and former federal minister of state from Ondo State, took it all with calm placidity and serene equanimity.

     “Baba, na so we see am O”, the rogue driver intoned with a cynical guffaw. Adams, a great buddy of the writer, had had two memorable stints as governor of the place. Now, the entire land was in a state of fearful commotion with the north going back to APC while Benin and environs had succumbed to the dreadful plague Obidiency.

      Shortly thereafter, we had turned off the main road into a rural feeder which led to Ozalla kingdom. The entire route was festooned and decked in bright posters. It was as if the entire community had risen to welcome its remarkable product. There was a lot of singing and dancing. Even the palace of the Onotare appeared grand and freshly coated. The bevy of singing damsels, fresh, rosy-cheeked and displaying their remarkable embonpoint could have come out of the ancient palace of Overamwen.

       The ceremony over, we were treated to the memorable cuisine of Ozalla kingdom. It was a movable feast. But what did it for yours sincerely was the palm wine. Chilled and wondrously preserved in native gourds, it tasted better than the best champagne anywhere in the world. It has been a wonderful time in Ozalla. And here is wishing the Uzoyare many happy years in the service of her people.

  • Before Tinubu’s inauguration

    Before Tinubu’s inauguration

    Despite the fears expressed by naysayers about the May 29 inauguration of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu presidency and the loathing for democracy exhibited by a few plotters working in league with the Labour Party (LP) to thwart the democratic process, President Muhammadu Buhari has reiterated his determination to ensure a peaceful and irrevocable handover. Opposition to the inauguration may survive in a few quarters, but it is weakening, and by May 29 will hardly matter anymore to anyone. National lawmakers, irrespective of party leanings, are preoccupied with who will become their principal officers; newly elected and returning governors are giddy with delight, readying themselves for assumption of office; and excited state legislators can’t wait to be sworn in. Despite the fiery rhetoric of Datti Baba-Ahmed, Peter Obi’s running mate, the mill of the democratic process may grind slowly in Nigeria, but it grinds small and exact, to adapt Henry Wadsworth Longfellow.

    However, for more than a month, President-elect Tinubu has been out of the country, perhaps also readying himself for office. Officially he has said he is resting from the rigours of the campaigns he undertook in the final months of 2022 and early 2023 to best competition and win the presidency. He needs the rest. But a few critics have also suggested that the campaigns took a toll on his health, and he has needed to rest more than is usual or much more than he is accustomed to. Yet others are mystified by his ‘inexplicable’ absence, wondering what on earth could be happening to him, especially given the shifts in the dates originally set for his return. But perhaps it all boils down to his security, particularly given the virulence with which his election victory was assailed, and the few fanatics who have taken oath to forestall his inauguration.

    Whatever the reasons for his long trip, and for a man so consummate in staying put in the country to bask in the euphoria he has conjured, not to talk of inspiring and micromanaging the dynamics of his administration and the mechanics of succession, it is fortuitous that he has stayed a little longer outside the country than expected. Rather than speculating about the reasons for his unusually long absence, this column prefers to insinuate good purposes into the trip. Winning the presidency had been his lifelong ambition, lifelong in terms of when the idea first crossed his mind, and he knows that presiding over the variegated affairs of about 200 million heaving, contending and often fractious people will not be a cakewalk. He, therefore, needs to psych himself for the job. He could choose to stay back in Nigeria like President Buhari in 2015, but for a man so contemplative and finicky, he knows the stream of visitors he would receive would disallow him from the reflection needed to set the tone and foundations for his presidency.

    In psyching himself for the task ahead, the president-elect will not only need to reflect on the job and the men he will assemble to help him do it, it is far more crucial and necessary for him to read up on great leaders and the complex issues and dynamics that influenced their leadership. It is, of course, not inevitable that reading, explicating and assimilating those sublime and often cumbersome texts will perforce turn him into a virtuoso, as indeed ex-United States president Richard Nixon showed by his brilliance and character failings, but if his presidency is to stand any chance of succeeding at all, he must visit the Valhalla of great leaders, and read up on them and read voraciously. There is unfortunately no other way, or shortcut, if he is to avoid the pitfalls that dissipated Chief Obasanjo’s presidency, diminished Goodluck Jonathan’s leadership, and emasculated President Buhari’s reign. All three leaders had unique opportunities to run great presidencies and remould the country, but character, intellect and judgement failed them and disabled them from soaring to great heights.

    The contemplative genius that has become the lodestar of great leadership does not come from either daydreaming or submitting to fatalism as the superstitious answer to the inscrutable questions of nationhood; nor does it come by merely secluding oneself shorn of books about statesmen: how they rose up to challenges sometimes brought on by internal dynamics (economic and social unrest and political and existential ferment) or external provocations (war, global depression or climate aggravations), or how they tackled regional, international and economic alliances, etc. These contemplations come by books, and they help the leader to structure and firm up the philosophical theme that would guide, organise and energise his presidency, far beyond sloganeering, and far beyond the kitchen midden of ideas and statements mouthed half-heartedly and absentmindedly by deficient leaders. More than anyone who has presented himself for the presidency in recent decades in Nigeria, the president-elect has demonstrated a willingness to think outside the box and to spend quality time in reflecting on alternatives to popular discourses and paradigms. Hopefully, his trip has afforded him the opportunity to realise that far beyond building bridges and roads, hospitals and schools, great leadership rests on things much more sublime, issues much more philosophical, and solutions sometime much more esoteric.

    Then of course, the president-elect must determine what (ideas/philosophy) and on whom he wants to model his presidency. He cannot do this by merely and casually imagining his fondness for one great leader or the other, and then seeking casuistically to speak, argue and imitate that leader. No, he has to discover his role model by books, nothing less. He has not had the opportunity to meet and interact with Julius and Augustus Caesar, but he can discover them by books and see whether in some ways the factors that lit the fires in their bellies cannot be reignited in him, thousands of years after. He has not met Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Napoleon Bonaparte or Genghis Khan, but he can meet them amply by books to discover the quality of their ambitions, their mistakes, and how substantially they changed their countries after their reigns. The president-elect has not met Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Lee Kuan Yew, or George Washington, but he can find through books how they remodeled their societies, rebuilt trust, composed their country’s national ethos and spirit, and also see whether the character, intuition and philosophy that underpinned their leadership could not be successfully replicated with some modifications.

    President-elect Tinubu has barely a month before the inauguration of his presidency, and he has sensibly risen above the scoffing, defiance and brickbats that accompanied his election. The courts are unlikely to overturn his election, for reasons clearly jurisprudential; and so he can rest assured that he will have the opportunity to write his name in history in more legible ways than his detractors dared to hope or imagine. Between now and May 29 may be too short for him to pore through those books with such avidity and depth enough to enable him grasp their import and discover what ideas and models he might wish to embrace; but he has the resources to call on gifted historians and political scientists to give him a summary of biographical works dealing with the ideas and skills of great statesmen, their triumphs, their defeats, their anxieties, and how they managed crises and inspired their nations to reach for the stars. Let him set the parameters for their presentations, and in his perusals and studies, let him spend a few weeks to determine what course he wishes to set for himself and his presidency. He will encounter rough weather, and his enemies will not stop snapping at his heels or being his enemies simply because the courts put paid to their insensible loathing. In fact, the more he succeeds, the more they will detest him. He should not care.

    What he should care about now, before inauguration, is how to discover his profound self through the agency of books, filtered through the actions and prisms of great leaders. Fortunately for him, no one since 1999 has affected Nigeria so substantially as to be described as having worn big shoes which a successor would find difficult to fill. In short, the president-elect has a clean slate upon which to write his name and deeds in ways unfettered by Nigeria’s recent and convoluted past.

    NLC’s Ajaero poorly advised on Labour Party

    The Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) president, Joe Ajaero, may have taken a huge gamble getting himself and his union embroiled in the Labour Party’s internal struggles. Last Monday he and a number of other union officials stormed the party’s secretariat in Abuja, in defiance of the courts, to reinstate party chairman Julius Abure and the sacking of the acting chairman, Lamidi Apapa, and six other National Working Committee (NWC) members who took office after an Abuja High Court on April 5 restrained Mr Abure and some other party executives from parading themselves as party officials. Since April 5 and the emergence of Mr Apapa and others as acting party leaders, LP has not known peace, leading to the storming of the secretariat on April 17 by NLC leaders.

    No one disputes the connection between the NLC and LP, with the latter recognised as the political child of the former. The conflict of interest between the two on the one hand and the other national political parties, particularly the ruling party, on the other hand was not an issue because the LP had not made any significant political breakthrough in winning elective offices. But with the startling showing of the LP in the last elections, especially under the resonant campaigns led by Peter Obi, the party’s presidential candidate, and the winning of one governorship office and a significant number of national and state legislative seats, the party had suddenly mutated into a significant ‘third force’. The status of the party, not to say the enormous resources that will be available to it going forward, has changed in ways that cannot be scorned or diminished.

    But the NLC is obviously uninterested in standing idly by as the LP faces the risk of being balkanised by internecine conflict. Without internal dissension, and with their elected governors and legislators displaying tenuous ideological and administrative linkage with the party, the LP was already in danger of fracturing, especially considering its history of political prostitution and the casual manner opportunistic politicians had turned the party into a special purpose vehicle. That danger is still not obviated. But added to the factionalisation triggered by the self-inflicted injury Mr Abure brought upon himself through alleged forgery and fraudulent activities, not to say Mr Apapa’s intransigence based on the ongoing court case against the LP leadership, it is hard to see this weak and fragile party achieving a peaceful resolution of a case that is to all intents and purposes uncomplicated.

    Mr Abure had been suspended by his ward executive for alleged forgery consequent upon his illegal substitution of candidates in the last elections, particularly in Edo and Ebonyi State. Interested members, including the aggrieved substituted candidates raised complaints to the police, and the LP leadership was investigated. The police indicted Mr Abure. Seizing upon the indictment, the complainants approached the Abuja court and obtained a restraining order. It is this restraining order that Messrs Ajaero, Abure and other NLC leaders are resisting. They have forced their way into the LP secretariat, broke doors, and threatened Mr Apapa and other interim leaders with physical violence. Said Mr Ajaero: “We say enough is enough! Never again will any human being enter here, under any guise, under any order. Even if we lose our leadership, we have to meet as trustees of this Labour Party to decide the next line of action. For anyone to illegally declare himself either as chairman, secretary or whatever, we urge all workers anywhere in the country, where you see such people, arrest them and bring them to us. The hour has come…” This newspaper also reported Mr Ajaero as describing Mr Apapa and his faction as “rodents that will be fumigated with insecticides”, and then added that “nobody can scuttle the ideal and ideologies of the party, including ongoing cases at tribunal”.

    It is not clear whether Mr Ajaero and other NLC leaders recognise that they are contemptuous of court orders, or that the statements they have made amount to dangerous incitement and reckless disregard for law and order. Union leaders, especially NLC leaders, are often believed to be circumspect in managing court cases, regardless of their incendiary speeches in the struggle for workers’ welfare. But to urge open disrespect to court orders, not to talk of ordering union members to embark on self-help, is both unusual and fraught with terrible consequences for even the NLC itself. No one can predict how the case will end, but it is unlikely to end well for Mr Abure, regardless of the show of support by NLC leaders and the LP presidential candidate, Mr Obi, who has waffled considerably on the issue as is his custom whenever he is confronted by controversial and moral issues. If contempt proceeding is instituted against the LP leadership, it remains to be seen whether the court will act firmly. It should. In addition, the police investigated Mr Abure and the LP leadership on the unlawful and criminal forgery and substitutions allegations; why they have not charged the matter in court is hard to explain.

    But what is more damaging overall to the NLC is that rather than take a hard and mature look at the internal struggle in the LP, they have opted for a simplistic and emotional approach. Crime has been alleged against the LP leadership; the NLC ought to keep a discrete distance. More importantly, by throwing in their lot with the LP, up to the point of speaking and urging violent reclamation of party secretariat, the NLC has shown that it has become indistinguishable from the LP, and that it in fact lends support and weight to all the appalling extremist statements the party has made in its response to the electoral defeat of February 25. Worse, the NLC leaders may be unwisely laying the foundation for terrible dissension within the union itself by being unabashedly and inextricably linked with the policies, actions and even crimes of the LP. To what extent then can the NLC claim to be impartial and non-partisan in its responses to government policies without opening itself to charges of prosecuting political objectives against the ruling party?

    Mr Ajaero is poorly advised, and is engaged in incremental weakening of the standards and objectives of the NLC. The union inspired the formation of the LP, but it ought to keep a healthy distance from the party and its partisan activities. That it managed to be detached all along, and for so many years, was probably coincidence rather than wisdom. Mr Ajaero’s rashness and the inability of his co-leaders to restrain or advise him will haunt the NLC for some time to come, except of course the LP implodes sooner rather than later.

  • Dateline Cardiff

    Dateline Cardiff

    After attending a three-month media training at the Thomson Foundation in Cardiff, United Kingdom 25 years ago, my plan was to write a book based on the weekly column I wrote in The Punch Newspaper, other experiences I had and lessons learnt.

    Despite collating the content of the book and getting it ready for printing, I didn’t print the book for various reasons and had long forgotten about the plan until late last year when I found the laid-out pages.

    The feedback on the publication of a picture with my co-participants on social media encouraged me to decide to update the old content of the proposed book and print it. Finally, the book titled Dateline Cardiff is now available on Amazon bookstore and other online platforms and the printed copy will be ready in the country this week.

    In the introduction to the book, I noted that young and mid-career journalists will still find some lessons to learn from how I made a major career development decision and worked hard at it to have a fulfilling career journey to date. Other professionals will also find benefit from some insights I shared in the book.

    Getting local and international media fellowship opportunities and training is still one of the ways for journalists to enhance their media career which involves writing a justification for selection and getting funding as I had to do in 1998.

    Maximising such media training opportunities is another thing beneficiaries need to learn. I was not obliged to write the weekly column I wrote during my stay in Cardiff or send stories for publications, but I went out of my way to pay the company back for paying for my flight.

    During the training, I was very desperate to learn as much as I could and make useful contacts for not only my official work, but also my Christian media project- Journalists for Christ (JFC), and I did. Virtually all my international travels so far to the United Kingdom, the United States, South Africa, Singapore, Kenya and others are linked to the contacts I made in Cardiff when I introduced JFC to some Christian media organisations after I opened a personal email account and learnt how to use search engines on the desktop computer assigned to me.

    Some of the international media organisations I have freelanced for and got paid generously in foreign currencies were also from the contacts I made in Cardiff.

    Despite having practised journalism for about 10 years and becoming a line editor before going to Cardiff, the global mutual-learning opportunity offered by the trainers and colleagues enhanced my skills and positioned me for higher responsibilities long after the training.

    Going for the Thomson Foundation Course was a defining moment in my career for which I will ever remain grateful. The training transformed me from being a traditional journalist to a multimedia professional journalist much earlier than most of my contemporaries.

    If there is any training programme, fellowship or award you have always wanted to apply for, don’t hesitate to do so, as long as you have the basic requirements.

    Do not assume your application will not be successful. Send it as I did to Thomson Foundation in 1998, and learn to cross every bridge when you get to it. Only those who apply for opportunities are considered, not those wishing to or imagining they are not in the class of those that can be selected.

  • There they go again

    There they go again

    • Nigerians need good governance, not unending pay rise

    Barely four years after Nigerian workers and the Federal Government agreed on a new minimum wage, that wage has become moribund, at least in the face of current economic realities. Now, the workers are looking forward excitedly to another 40 per cent pay rise, this time, ostensibly to cushion the effects of subsidy removal on fuel in June, as well as the effects of rising inflation, rising cost of living, hikes in transportation fare, housing and electricity tariffs. Minister of Labour and Employment, Chris Ngige, had only last month said that the Federal Government had approved a pay raise for civil servants in the country and that the new package would take effect from January, this year. According to him, the new pay had been included in this year’s budget. Another source had disclosed that payment would commence from this month end and that the arrears from January would be paid later.

    As far as I am concerned, what we are having on our hands is a new salary structure, a new minimum wage, so to speak, irrespective of whatever fanciful name the government officials call it.

    I have no qualms with whatever is being done to raise workers’ salaries in the country. The truth of the matter is that I doubt whether the workers have been getting their dues in the last four or so decades. It’s been a long time in Nigeria when salaries, particularly in the public service, could take care of the needs (mind you, not wants) of the salary earners. Things have been deteriorating on the economic plain so fast that Nigerian workers’ pay can hardly take them home.  Even when the relatively new N30,000 minimum wage that is about to give way came into effect, it was not still enough to take them home. But the workers and their unions were somewhat happy that at last, they would get N30,000 minimum wage. I am sure the euphoria has since been over.

    True, there is an almost unprecedented inflationary level in the country. Indeed, I doubt if things have ever been this bad concerning inflation and standard of living in Nigeria. At 22.04 per cent, the current inflation is about the highest rate since 2005. Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that inflation rate has been on the rise for the third consecutive time this year alone. This month, it increased by 0.13 per cent points when compared to February headline inflation rate, with the cost of food and beverages contributing significantly to overall inflation. For so many years until recent times when security challenges became an issue in the country, food was relatively cheap.

    The situation is no doubt, dire.

    Still, I do not believe the country’s most pressing problem, in spite of whatever inadequacies I might have stated, is the minimum wage. What we have on our hands is much more serious than that. And I said that even as recently as when the current minimum wage was fixed. I said unless we change our attitudes collectively as a people, the N30,000 that was being celebrated then would soon expire. It has. Or hasn’t it? If it has not, we would not now be talking about a 40 per cent pay rise. And so soon.

    What we have on our hands is a chronic leadership deficit. Successive governments that allowed fuel import to occur at all, not to talk of letting it go on for ages, should be blamed for the abnormality. Although the point has been made several times; it bears restating: that Nigeria as a major producer of crude oil should have no business importing refined petroleum products. But, somehow, shamelessly, this is what the country has been relying on for decades and our leaders found nothing unusual about it. The inevitable result is that the government has had to be subsidising the products. At the last count, about N400bn is spent monthly on fuel subsidy. Apparently because of the opaque nature of the operations of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) now Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd, the subsidy regime is riddled with corruption. It has been impossible to get any tangible results from the turn-around maintenance (TAM) of the country’s four refineries. Yet, successive governments have sunk and keep sinking money into the moribund refineries.

    The governments failed to bring sanity to the subsidy regime apparently because those involved are not minions but highly placed untouchables. Yet, it is not only through the subsidy that such personalities make their cool millions daily at the expense of the nation’s purse. They also reap bountifully from illegal crude sales. Depending on the government official giving out the statistics, the country loses about $40m daily to such illegal activities. I don’t know how many countries their governments would wait the way Nigeria had waited unconcernedly for so long before moving against such criminals, no matter who they are.

    Having failed woefully to rein in the very important thieves, government has now turned around to put the load on the usual beasts of burden, hapless Nigerians. Well, there is God o.

    Ostensibly to cushion the effects of the serious dislocations and inconvenience that would be a natural consequence of the subsidy withdrawal, government is ready to pay workers about 40 per cent more. In like manner, some 10 million poorest-of-the poor Nigerians would share an $800m World Bank loan obtained to cushion the effects of subsidy removal. I really have not understood how this would work. Is it a one-off handout or a monthly thing? If it is one-off, I don’t know how far that would go given what we are hearing that fuel may sell for between N600-N700 per litre. How does a one-time lifeline sustain the poorest-of-the-poor for as long as transport fares would shoot up before we start having reprieve from Dangote Refinery and other refineries that we are looking up to, to bail us out of fuel importation? Is there any certainty that prices would come down even when these local fuel producers come on stream, given what we already know about our environment and cost of production? Suppose we suddenly realise that local production does not have any serious effect on fuel price per litre after subsidy has been withdrawn?

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    May be public workers can still accommodate the rise in transport fares since they are to begin to enjoy a pay rise before then. Or, may be they would have their own transport buses? But we had such experience in the past which even labour could not run profitably.

    There are so many ‘ifs’, concerning the poorest-of-the-poor and their lifeline. Still, it is important to ask what happens to the millions of Nigerians who cannot benefit from the World Bank loan and are not civil servants, and yet would be adversely affected by subsidy removal? There are about 200 million Nigerians and the Federal Government had singled out far less than half to be comforted one way or the other. So, what happens to the remaining millions who are private sector employees or who are self-employed and are only managing their lives with the little income they are realising from their businesses? What happens to the millions out there who don’t even have anything to do? Where will they get soothing balms to sustain them when the policy comes?

    We can keep on asking questions and really, we should interrogate the issues very well given, one, that a new government is going to inherit the backlash of the policy. Two, we are in the mess we are in today because we hardly interrogate government. We hardly put government officials on their toes, only for us to be asking later how we found ourselves where we are today, when we are the very architects of our own fortune. Yet, we pay these public officials some of the highest wages in the world!

    All of these arguments revolve around government and governance. And, as I was trying to point out earlier, the solution to our problems concerning cost of living and standard of living is not in perennial or regular rise in wages but in insisting on good governance. I have said it before; and it bears restating, that governments in the developing world would always prefer to give pay rise, to their delivering on promised democratic dividend. Bad governance continues unabated as the workers are engrossed in celebration over their new pay that would almost always expire before the ink on the agreement paper dries up.

    Even if the circumstances are not exactly the same, still, consider what has been happening in France since January when President Emmanuel Macron made public his decision to raise retirement  age from 62 to 64 years. France has not been the same again. This would have been welcome news in Nigeria because already, many people here under-declare their ages so as to stay longer in service for obvious reasons.

    Things will only start to work in this country when workers and other Nigerians begin to insist that politicians govern well.

    If the country is better run, there is no reason why we cannot return to our glorious past where agriculture played a significant role in emancipation of Nigerians economically. If the country is better run, we would have cause to depend less on importation of things we can produce locally and our currency would be stronger in no time. When the Naira becomes stronger we would  be better respected in the comity of nations and our voice will matter in global affairs as the most populous black nation.

    It saddens my heart that our currency which was stronger than the almighty American Dollar is now exchanging at the prevailing rate of about N700 to one USD. If our leaders feel this kind of concern, this country would become great again. And if they are not ready to do that from above, nothing stops those below who will eventually carry the can (as they are about doing in fuel subsidy which was caused by successive governments’ lackadaisical and cavalier attitude to governance) must compel them to toe that path.

    Apart from being a very cheap way of trying to solve the problem of inflation and other standard of living issues, constant wage increase has the potential of continually weakening our currency because it is only a temporary panacea to much more fundamental problems. Mind you, even the Federal Government is yet to pay all its workers the present N30,000. Several states are in arrears. It should worry Nigerians that their governments usually find it convenient to give pay rise when they should give good governance. Even an outgoing government prefers to leave that debit to its successor to tackle.

    You will better appreciate my argument by taking your mind back to how much we were buying things in the last 10 or so years and how much we are buying them today. The higher the wages, the more impoverished workers and the people generally become. It shouldn’t be so. Minimum wage does not last forever. But it is not reviewed astronomically the way we do.

  • Sen Binani jeopardises future

    Sen Binani jeopardises future

    In a March 26 piece entitled “Binani: The revolution that nearly was”, Barometer rhapsodised the place of women in the politics of old Gongola State, now comprising Adamawa and Taraba States. Senator Binani’s surefooted advances in politics in a ‘man’s world’ served as a peg for the short piece. The column will recall the piece today because of the depressing drama that surrounded the last supplementary governorship poll eventually won by the governor, Ahmadu Fintiri.

    Here it is. “Some days ago, when unsubstantiated reports gave the Adamawa State governorship election victory to Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed (also known as Aishatu Binani), the 51 years old Adamawa Central senator was jubilantly believed to have broken the glass ceiling. It was a significant breakthrough for women, exultant analysts suggested. And for that electoral triumph to occur in northern Nigeria was described as revolutionary in scope. Adamawa has produced a slew of women senators: Senator Grace Folashade Bent (Adamawa South, 2007-2011); Senator Binta Massi (Adamawa North, 2015-2019); and now Senator Binani (Adamawa Central, 2019-2023).

    “Two things are very significant here. One, all Adamawa’s senatorial districts have produced women senators in a state with majority Muslim population. Something is clearly happening in Adamawa State in terms of its closeness to approximating the civic culture. No other state in Nigeria, not even the so-called cosmopolitan and Christian states of the South, has achieved the Adamawa feat. Two, one of the three women, Sen. Bent, hails from Osun State but is married to an Adamawan, while a second, Sen. Binani, has pitched very strongly and confidently for the governorship. Days ago, she was thought to have won, and had even begun receiving congratulatory messages, before the election was declared inconclusive.

    “Before the election stalemated over disputes concerning votes from Fufore local government area, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri had 421,524 votes to Sen. Binani’s 390,275, a difference some analysts believe may be unbridgeable. But whether the supporters of the senator celebrated too early or not, they can take pride in how their amazon has fared in this election season. In nearby Taraba State, another woman, the late Aisha Alhassan was elected senator representing Taraba North senatorial district between 2011 and 2015. After her senatorial tenure, she also contested the 2015 governorship, lost, won back the seat at the election tribunal, but lost it again at both the Court of Appeal and Supreme Court.

    “Sen. Alhassan may have lost the Taraba governorship poll, and Sen. Binani may have an uphill task winning the Adamawa governorship election, but given the trajectories of women politicians in the former Gongola State, which now comprises Adamawa and Taraba, something clearly revolutionary and heartwarming is afoot in those hilly and politically advanced and pacesetting regions. The country had better pay attention.”

    Mr Fintiri, as this column expected, sustained his lead by winning with 430,861 votes to Sen Binani’s 398,788 votes, a difference of 32,073 votes. Before the supplementary election, the governor had secured what this column described as unbridgeable margin of 31,249 votes, implying that he even added a few more votes to the margin two Saturdays ago. Despite all the drama, the Adamawa rerun was a success, both in terms of freedom of choice and in terms of security. Both candidates behaved responsibly while polling lasted, until collation began and, midway, the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) of the state, Hudu Yunusa-Ari, enacted his bombast. After a contrived stalemate during the collation, Mallam Hudu simply got up during a recess and peremptorily announced Sen Binani elected. The agitated APC candidate was to explain later that chicanery was afoot to truncate the collation, thus necessitating Mallam Hudu’s intervention.

    If she felt aggrieved, she had the option of litigating the entire election, not just the rerun. By scoring a wholesome  398,788 votes, Sen Binani acquitted herself creditably. She not only demonstrated that her strong showing was durable and remarkable, she also ensured that her image as a statewide politician transcended her senatorial district. She is a politician to watch. But she was misadvised. Her strong showing, despite her defeat, could have been construed in her concession speech as a pedestal for a future governorship contest, had she the noblesse oblige to make one. She didn’t have to win two Saturdays ago. She had not been disgraced, and she was obviously not a pushover. She also had the option of constituting herself, and to some extent her party, into Mr Fintiri’s main opposition.

    Instead, by playing along with those who needlessly plotted the stalemate and by seeking inelegantly to profit from Mallam Hudu’s clearly illegal and controversial announcement returning her as elected without any substantiation of vote count, Sen Binani displayed desperation. Apart from being humiliated in the manner the Adamawa rerun was finally resolved, the senator has got herself enmeshed in a controversial N2 billion bribe. The bribe story was likely to be mendacious from the outset, but given the way she was illegally returned as elected, not to say her mistimed and ill-conceived ‘victory speech’, few were willing to give her the benefit of the doubt. She ought to have distanced herself from the illegal announcement.

    However, she is human. Having been reported on social media and a few online publications as elected, that is before the March 18 stalemate, and having received congratulatory messages as the first woman governor in Nigeria, thus breaking the glass ceiling, it seemed galling to her that the electoral body ordered a supplementary election which she was in danger of losing during the collation last Sunday. To come so close to being a revolutionary first shortly after the March 18 poll, and being in danger of losing that accolade on April 15 in the supplementary poll, were fantasies her mind could simply not process adequately. While the drama lasted, she lost weight, and an otherwise beautiful woman began to look disheveled and gaunt. She put herself through a needless trauma.

    Mr Fintiri won the election, and Sen Binani’s time was probably still sometime in the future, perhaps in four years’ time. If she can manage to reframe her loss within the overall ambit of her politics, and canonises her attitude towards that loss in saintly and futuristic terms devoid of the desperation and electoral ugliness that lathered the rerun, she may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. A few reputations have of course been shattered, not least those of Mallam Hudu and the police commissioner on election duty in the state, Mohammed Barde. The courts, to which the senator headed for quick relief, wisely sidestepped the Adamawa election landmines. Even Sen Binani’s party, the APC at the national level, has sought to distance itself from the quagmire. It is time the senator herself did the right thing. She knows what to do, if she can summon the will.

    Desperate efforts against inauguration

    It is perhaps time President Muhammadu Buhari saw the continuing efforts to thwart the May 29 inauguration as a challenge to his bona fides, and an unflattering indication that some powerful individuals think if they pushed him enough, he would baulk at handing over the reins of office to his successor. He has said on many occasions that he would hand over; yet, the desperation to undermine the democratic process continues apace. It will continue till May 29. It began with ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo calling for the process to be aborted midstream. Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate Peter Obi and his running mate Datti Baba-Ahmed have taken courage from the ex-president’s sinister ploy and have spoken stridently against the inauguration. So, too, have some faith leaders whose election predictions miscarried. They are also calling for apocalypse. By mid-May, however, the desperation will likely yield to resignation, as the handover ceremony begins to take shape, regardless of the efforts of anti-democratic forces.

    But it is curious that Mr Obi and the LP are claiming victory despite coming third. If they win their case, would the courts not face the dilemma of who to give the crown: the second runner-up or the first runner-up. The shiftiness of the whole judicial quest by the LP is that if the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate had won, Mr Obi and his Southeast and religious supporters would not question the victory. How then can they prove that the whole quest is not targeted at the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and to some extent the Southwest?– Chief Obasanjo for entirely private and conspiratorial reasons, and Mr Obi for entirely regional and childish reasons.   

  • Tinubu’s mystique (Conclusion)

    Tinubu’s mystique (Conclusion)

    On February 12, while endorsing the Tinubu/Shettima All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential ticket, this column surveyed the political landscape and concluded that the ruling party would win at first ballot, without any need for run-off, and would win by a reasonable margin. Weeks after the poll, when the Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate Peter Obi and his running mate and other bitter and startled adventurers began campaigning to delegitimise the poll, the column again predicted that the inauguration would come and go without any incident, despite the worst efforts of ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, controversial Afenifere acting leader Ayo Adebanjo, and a few vocal Southwest activists and essayists. Not only will the inauguration be successful, Nigeria will experience a new lease of life in the years ahead.

    Many things account for the column’s boldness in making his asseverations, and they were clearly marshaled on this page in past weeks. But chief among the reasons is the God factor, whether some Nigerians think He exists or not. President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu obviously did his part in building a winning coalition that cuts across the country, and by his intellect and charisma led a campaign unequalled by his opponents and unrivalled in expertise. He worked the arithmetic of the campaigns so succinctly that save for a few mishaps proved unerringly accurate. He knew the states and regions where the votes would come from, and he curated them carefully and conscientiously, of course without the customary elocution expected of such complex and mystifying ventures. Yet, even he knew that his victory became a foregone conclusion only when the opposition split into four parts, as it were. That the opposition leaders failed to unite in the face of defeat had nothing to do with the president-elect; it had everything to do with forces and calculations that were simply and inscrutably transcendental.

    Nigeria is, therefore, today on the cusp of a new era. President-elect Tinubu’s politics and leadership are just budding; the politics and lack of leadership acumen of Mr Obi and his running mate Datti Baba-Ahmed are tragically wilting. The star of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, flickered out years ago in 2019. The 2023 presidential election has entombed his career. However, many analysts think there is a future for the LP duo. The analysts probably assume that because the LP made a significant and impressive showing in the presidential poll, a bright and lasting future awaits Mr Obi and Mr Baba-Ahmed. That future, assuming it exists, will depend on whether the two gentlemen possess the administrative acumen to run a national party imbued with an ideology and a structure more durable than their superficial longings, or even whether they possess a willingness to purge and recast the party in their own philosophical mould. They have none of these virtues. Worse they lack a perspective of the future and the temperament and capacity needed to build a major national party devoid of ethnic and religious opportunism.

    President-elect Tinubu is cut from a different cloth. As this column noted while endorsing him, he is not infallible, nor does he personify the most unimpeachable politics. But he has character, leadership acumen, intuition, intelligence and judgement. Had he been a saint, he would be in a convent. And had he possessed the strength many adjudge him lacking on account of his age, he would have embraced far more herculean avocations needing the explosive and unfettered energy of youth. Assess, for instance, the people around him during the campaigns, both young and old, nearly all of them people of stellar talents and accomplishments, cutting across ethnic groups and religions. They point the way to his presidential reign. The president-elect’s antecedents are also enviable. He is, therefore, expected not only to assemble a general cabinet that would set the mark for Africa, he would also assemble a kitchen cabinet that is bold, national, committed and gifted. Before the primary that gave him the APC ticket, all sorts of obstacles lined his path; but he demonstrated rare courage in dismantling them. In presiding over Nigeria, he will need those attributes in excess of what he is used to as governor and political mobiliser and strategist.

    There is little he can do to avoid the fallout of the Muhammadu Buhari era and presidency. He will have to contend with the vestiges of that era and overcome them if he is to stand any chance of success. Before the APC presidential primary, the president had at first gone along with all kinds of subterranean campaigns to preclude the candidacy of the former Lagos governor, but finally reconciled himself to what seemed to him a galling prospect. He was not the chief inspirer of the convulsions that shook the ruling party to its foundations, leading to the dethronement of Asiwaju Tinubu’s loyalists; but once the plots got underway, he signed off on them and even briefly owned them. More than a year later, when the general election loomed into view, he appeared bewildered by the decision of the former Lagos governor to throw his hat in the ring, unsure what inspired him to defy all the plots and predictions against his ambition. And when finally the president and the party played their last card against him by attempting to supplant him with a consensus candidate, and failed, the president simply went to sleep, leaving the party to its devices. He had done his best to show his neutral hands, and had played his last joker. He thereafter seemed determined to leave the rest to God and perhaps the voters.

    The voters finally had their emphatic say in February, signposting the beginning of a new era. Powerful forces are trying their best to undermine the new era even before it begins, but it is beyond them, just as the outcome of the poll was beyond the candidates and the voters. This is why the venomous social media warriors whooping for Mr Obi, outside his borrowed party, will also come to grief. In order to remain a credible opposition to the APC, the PDP will have to recalibrate their structure, personnel and ideology, without needing to take cognisance of the influence or presence of Alhaji Atiku. And President-elect Tinubu will in his first year in office have to grapple with the poisoned chalice of inoperable and unprofitable railway projects, controversial policies, last-minute changes and awards, smouldering education crisis, alienation in the Southeast, restive youths angry at years of neglect and confusion, fuel subsidy removal, insecurity mixed with ethnic cleansing and land confiscations, and humongous external debt pushing the country into debt peonage. The president-elect’s mindset, fierce ambition, leadership and mentoring ability, and exposure to global finance and development standards should help him steer the troubled national ship away from the precipice.

    Soyinka, Obidients and futility of appeasement

    Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka, like many other critics of the juvenility of the so-called Obidients, may have started to understand that in the dynamics of the sewer, those little and budding ‘fascists’ could not be outdone. To outdo them implies descending to the muck from which they emanate and derive sustenance. Prof Soyinka had publicly tongue-lashed the Labour Party (LP) presidential running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed for threatening the collapse of democracy should the winner of the presidential election, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, be sworn in. It reeked of fascism to threaten the president and the judiciary simply because the LP lost an election, warned the professor. The professor added that he had warned the LP candidate himself that he stood the risk of losing the election on account of the irreverence and obstreperousness of the so-called Obidients, Mr Obi’s unrestrained and ‘excitable’ supporters.

    Prof Soyinka gives as much as he takes, and does not suffer fools gladly; but it is not certain that the din that followed the interviews in which he made those ‘provocative’ remarks did not surprise him, especially given how unequivocally it united many eminent south-easterners and authors against him. Even former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) deputy governor, Kingsley Moghalu, who had initially and enthusiastically rallied behind the professor, had to beat a hasty and apologetic retreat when the Obidients sallied forth against him with their bayonets. The professor also baited the mouthy Mr Baba-Ahmed with a debate offer that was brusquely declined. There will be no debates, and startled and dismayed by the abuse he had received from unusual but hitherto respectable and highly-placed quarters, it is uncertain that Prof Soyinka will be venturing out against the unruly social media denizens. The world and Nigerians, perhaps aggravated by a decadent social media culture, are far different from what the professor’s politics and lifestyle have idealised.

    By his confession, the eminent professor said that he reached out to Mr Obi to offer him political counsel. But there is no appeasing the LP candidate. Unlike the cerebral and refined Prof Moghalu whom he endorsed in 2019 for the presidency, Mr Obi is more dissembling and opinionated. The LP candidate and his strategists had determined that for them to stand any chance of electoral success they had to deploy ethnic and religious sentiments and tactics, two vices completely antithetical to Prof Soyinka’s worldview. So, whatever advice the professor gave to the publicly and showily deferential Mr Obi was bound to hit a brick wall. Clearly, in considering Mr Obi an approximation, perhaps personification, of the youth angst convulsing the nation, the professor was betting on and appeasing the wrong horse. Both Mr Obi and his supporters are irredeemable, unideological, and violently insular. Last week, Prof Soyinka received a full dose of their acerbity.

    Mr Obi may be engagingly young and agile, and stands at the head of a mob of young but bitter iconoclasts, but it was too optimistic for anyone to gamble on him. Ex-military head of state Ibrahim Babangida had also spoken glowingly of the next Nigerian president as someone in his 60s, perhaps a reference to Mr Obi; but it was a wholly wrong thesis to qualify the presidency of a nation as complex and dynamic as Nigeria on age rather than on character, intellect, experience, intuition, and judgement. This column has always argued that leadership is nearly an arcanum that far transcends the superficiality and endearments men like Mr Obi are enamoured of. It is true that Prof Soyinka has projected an inclusive worldview that detests alienation, inequity and injustice, a style that has made him an instinctive advocate of power shift to the Southeast. The problem, however, is that some people are unworthy of such investments. The LP candidate, as events have shown, including his rabid exploitation of the incendiary politics of religion and his abysmal fondness for untruths, is a bad and unwholesome investment.

    Apart from the unalloyed and undiscriminating support given Mr Obi by many of his kinsmen such as Chukwuemeka Ezeife,  Obiageli Ezekwesili, Charles Oputa, Chimamanda Addichie, Olisa Agbakoba, and Chidi Odinkalu, who have all flattered his bad politics, the sulking LP candidate persists in his fallacies as a result of the support and instigation received from ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, Afenifere factional/Acting leader Ayo Adebanjo, and a host of other overhyped south-western celebrities and skit makers. By voicing some sort of indirect support for youth politics, which Mr Obi seemed to exemplify so cursorily, Prof Soyinka appeared to endorse the LP candidate’s ambition. The professor, it must be pointed out, does not have a history of supporting only those who stood a chance of winning, a reflection of his dispassion in political advocacy. However, going by Mr Obi’s desperation in the closing weeks of the campaign, the former Anambra governor actually seemed to think he stood a chance of clinching the crown. It is a reflection of his deep-seated opacity and general lack of substance and depth that he thought excluding the core North’s two vote-laden geopolitical zones was not injurious to his ambition.

    Many endorsers will be more careful next time in assessing the capacity, ideas, character and competence of political aspirants. It is not enough that an aspirant promises to stand for the right things; he must also possess the right qualities. Prof Soyinka is, of course, not alone in desiring the best for Nigeria, especially if that best could also coincidentally come from the Southeast believed to have been excluded from the country’s central power loop. But as Anambra governor Charles Soludo, Imo governor Hope Uzodinma, Ebonyi’s Dave Umahi, and former Enugu governor Chimaroke Nnamani all warned, putting an Igbo man in the presidency requires more than the tactless and aggressive approach embodied by Mr Obi and his scurrilous social media warriors. The LP candidate may have now so muddied the waters that it will take a little longer than anticipated for the Southeast to win the presidency. Having chafed quietly on the sidelines over how Mr Obi takes his defeat badly, or how former Abia governor Orji Uzor Kalu runs with the hare and hunts with the hounds, or how the LP candidate’s supporters have lost their senses and are threatening to destroy Nigeria’s democratic edifice, the North will likely make up their minds to be vigilant on whom to support for the presidency in the next election cycle. They supported president-elect Tinubu because he played his politics adroitly, built powerful coalitions, and gained their trust and proved his reliability. They and the rest of the country now know for sure that no one could win the Nigerian presidency without going through that route, regardless of the madness on social media, and irrespective of the plaintive cry for political inclusion from the Southeast.

    Obi to Obidients     

    Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, was on Twitter last Monday admonishing his entranced Obidients to stay the course he had set for them. He not only finally owned the movement, he also identified with their controversial style and goals. For those who sought to coax him into restraining his supporters, the tweets were final proof that he is indistinguishable from his supporters whom he described as a movement. Here is what he said grandiosely: “My Obidients…as we celebrate the Easter and look forward to a joyous Eid al-Fitr, we pray for God Almighty’s guidance, protection and blessings as we face and pass through litany of challenges in our dear country, Nigeria – flawed electoral processes, insecurity, weak institutions, multidimensional poverty, unemployment, inflation, lack of justice, fairness, equity, opportunities….As we reflect on these challenges and look forward to a New Nigeria that is POssible, Datti and I are painfully mindful that for the mere reason of being OBIdient, most of you have suffered vituperations, physical attacks, loss of rights and privileges, hateful trolls, indignities and vexatious fighting words, even from some of those we long regarded as civic leaders and conscience of our nation. Please bear such attacks as the sacrifices that we are all required to make in order to create a New Nigeria, where justice, equity, fairness, love and prosperity shall reign…”

    Apart from the innuendoes against notable personalities whom he derisively and disapprovingly labeled as conscience of the nation, his tweets also clearly show how easily he traverses alternative universes, realities and truths. His rule of law sloganeering and manipulation of facts and fictions, not to say the egregious lies about being pressured to leave Nigeria and women being planted around him to seduce him, are unexampled. He counsels his movement on forbearance but ignores the fact that his supporters inspired the horrors and vices he complained of, including terrorising everyone, foreigner or local alike, who objects to their apocalyptic approach to politics and dissent. Had he won the presidential poll, his movement, which reminds many of Adolf Hitler’s Brownshirts and Blackshirts, would have executed unimaginable horrors against opponents while creating fertile ground for dictatorship. Worse, their presidential election triumphalism would have sooner rather than later led to anarchy. On February 25, without a shadow of doubt, Nigeria was fortunate to have escaped a fate worse than military dictatorship.