Category: Sunday

  • Fayemi, Amaechi and ADC

    Fayemi, Amaechi and ADC

    In his wildest dreams, former Ekiti State governor, Kayode Fayemi, could not have imagined that the talkative former Rivers governor Rotimi Amaechi would reveal the foundational details of the conspiracy that led to the formation of a political coalition movement against the All Progressives Congress (APC). Last week, on television, perhaps exasperated by his fellow former governor’s dissembling, Mr Amaechi exposed the conspiracy, revealing that he and the former Ekiti governor inspired the beginnings of the coalition force. Nigerians believe him. Neither Dr Fayemi who has kept spectrally quiet nor his spokesman who merely warned against social media gossips has denied the story. After all, said the former Ekiti governor, he had endorsed Ekiti governor, Abiodun Oyebanji for a second term. How that absolved him of anti-party plots is hard to understand.

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    Dr Fayemi reserves the right to plot against his friends and lionise his enemies, just like the bitter and vexatious former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola; but his comrades in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are tired of his double-dealing and want him to clarify his stand. The trouble, however, is that unlike Mr Aregbesola, Dr Fayemi still has a conscience disturbed by his errant choices. He is aggrieved for being left out in the cold when President Bola Tinubu constituted his cabinet, but he recollects the president’s immense contributions to his election and reelection, without which he could not have actualize his ambition.

    But being lukewarm in politics is as debilitating as it is counterproductive. Dr Fayemi may congratulate himself for not yet immersing fully in the ADC, for the adopted party is convulsing with internal and legal conflicts of all kinds, but he will do more than just immersion once the coast is clear. And he is of course not alone in sitting on the fence. He is in solid and infamous company with former vice president Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, both of whom are on the horns of a dilemma over the many troubles of the ADC. He may also exult for not burning his bridges yet, and like the Pharisee, he may even joke about the irreligious Mr Aregbesola provocatively invoking God as the patron saint of the coalition party. But soon, Dr Fayemi will have to determine whether to go the whole hog in rebellion or retrace his steps. His choice will depend on whether the temptation to unhorse President Tinubu is more vengefully satisfying than the trouble his conscience will give him.

  • 2027: exhuming Goodluck Jonathan again

    2027: exhuming Goodluck Jonathan again

    In April 2022, shortly before political parties began their nomination battles for the 2023 presidential election, a group of supporters visited former president Goodluck Jonathan at his Abuja residence to pressure him to throw his hat in the ring. He was characteristically evasive. His response was a model in both brevity and caution. “Yes you are calling me to come and declare for the next election, I cannot tell you I’m declaring,” he had said soothingly. “The political process is ongoing. Just watch out. The key role you must play is that Nigeria must get somebody that will carry young people along.” Presumably he was that somebody who knew how to galvanise the youth. Months before the parties organise the next nominations for the 2027 presidential election, Dr Jonathan has once more come under pressure to enter the race. Dispensing with the lessons of the 2022 experience, the former president has again adopted his cautious and evasive approach.

    This time, he is not facing any hurdle that he didn’t face in 2022. There is still the legal conundrum inserted in the constitution in 2019 forbidding any president who had previously taken oath of office twice from running for the presidency. Responding to the lacuna that arose from the death in office of ex-president Umaru Yar’Adua in 2010, the National Assembly amended the constitution to remove any ambiguity regarding qualification for the presidency. In 2019, the amendment, contained in Section 137(3), came into effect, and it pointedly precludes anyone who completed the term of a previous president and had won another term in office from staking a claim for the office. The lawmakers reasoned that a breach would violate the immutable constitutional provision that no president shall serve more than eight years in office. It is not clear by what legal sleight of hand anyone can still read ambiguity into that amendment or waffle about whether it can be applied retroactively or not.

    In 2022, former vice president Atiku Abubakar and other crowds of ambitious aspirants from the southern part of the country helped banish the possibility of Dr Jonathan entering the contest. And so it was that the once exuberant former president suddenly became grimfaced and deflated. Had he calmly considered the circumstances of the race he was being beguiled into, he would have seen that it was a bridge too far. But strangely, he let himself be seduced by the prospect of returning to familiar haunts he had grown to love, a presidency so powerful and immense, but an office he felt somewhat humiliated out of in 2015. He was not alone in displaying that unnatural desire. Ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo reportedly did not want to relinquish power in 1979, but was coaxed by his fellow generals. He never stopped longing for the office, and when the opportunity came again in 1999, though he at first dissembled, he took it with both hands. In November 2010, Alhaji Atiku became the consensus candidate of the Malam Adamu Ciroma-led Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPFL) in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s presidential primary slated for January 2011. He had defeated Ibrahim Babangida, former military head of state who had ruled for eight years, but still panted after the office more than a decade after he was shooed out.

    Sources within the PDP confirm that Dr Jonathan is being pressured to contest the 2027 presidency on the party’s platform. Bauchi State governor Bala Mohammed, who was for almost five years Dr Jonathan’s Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister, is believed to be the leading exponent of the Jonathan candidature. He has privately conceded that the legal conundrum barring the former president from contesting could be successfully tackled, and that since Dr Jonathan would then not be entitled to run for a second term should he win, it would pave the way for the return of another northerner, presumably his good self, to take a shot at the presidency. His permutations may be neat, but they are infantile. There are many more leading PDP members lining up behind a Jonathan candidacy, believing that he would stand a better chance than anyone else, including Peter Obi, former Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate, of winning. It is not known how reassuring it is to Dr Jonathan that the same party is in some perverse way grooming an alternative in Mr Obi.

    The PDP may wish to exhume Dr Jonathan who cold-shouldered the party after 2015 because he felt betrayed by party bosses, or groom Mr Obi who also abandoned them when he thought they were hostile to his ambition, but in reality they may simply be acknowledging how difficult it is to find a suitable presidential candidate with which to beat the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate in 2027. It is also feared that the North and some elements in the PDP may in fact be exhibiting their extreme antipathy towards President Tinubu in particular. Stories of the seductions they have inspired fill the media. But, from all indications, the stories will fizzle out in the coming months, for the forces against them are overwhelming, if not insurmountable. It is true that outside Dr Jonathan and Mr Obi, they do not have anyone of enough heft to champion their cause and put them in battle formation, but to linger too long on the implausible and chimerical candidature of the two runaway politicians is to further deplete their chances and prolong their anguish.

    Both Dr Jonathan and Mr Obi are irritatingly cautious politicians, the kind of caution that encapsulates indecisions and hesitations. They are currently perched on the horns of a dilemma and will not throw their hats in the ring without firm assurances of getting the presidential ticket. Yet, no one in the PDP will give that assurance. More unnervingly, no one in the PDP, not even their brightest legal minds, can give them the assurance that the legal conundrums the courted aspirants face can be resolved in their favour. For all his tentativeness, Dr Jonathan fears that Section 137(3) cannot by any conceivable legal interpretation be stretched to accommodate his ambition. His wife, Dame Patience, a more resolute person than he, thinks the family honour should be redeemed by supporting someone else for the contest. Since leaving the throne, both she and her husband have looked far better and rosier than when they held the reins of power and were subjected to the worst kind of vilifications Dr Jonathan himself thought was unequalled in Africa. In addition, the former president’s aides will be secretly appalled that their principal still harbours any thought of returning to the hot seat.

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    It is expected that the former president will soon announce his disinterest in the race. Regardless of the allure of office, and notwithstanding his suspicious incapacity for deep reflection, he is thought to understand that he is being courted to be cynically deployed to divide the South and pave the way for a northern victory at the poll. He is also thought to understand that they are courting him not because they respect and love him or appreciate his record in office, but because they hope to use him for their own base calculations to reinforce their long-held belief in the superiority and dominance of the North over the South: that they can enthrone and dethrone at will, and that any southerner in office must labour or function under the weight of northern suzerainty and southern vassalage. Dr Jonathan has not given the impression of retaining a tight circle of advisers capable of disaggregating Nigeria’s complex political dynamics and availing him the best options for his considerations. However, he has proved at key moments in his life a capacity for identifying and listening to his best instincts. Those instincts served him well in 2015 when he lost the election and conceded it despite being egged on by his supporters to foment trouble.

    This time, with regard to the 2027 race, he faces far less challenging conundrums than the opposition and election that took him out in 2015. He will see the constitutional impediments to the 2027 race as insurmountable, and the PDP so wracked by internal conflict as to be able to present a formidable force against the enemy. He will also see whatever guarantees they give him concerning the nomination as insufficient to bank on, especially in a party which years of internal dissensions had weakened and disoriented. And finally, he will see the political ramparts and moats upon which the party hopes to erect its defences against the APC as too weak to withstand the ruling party’s cannons, indeed far weaker than the battlements that failed him in 2015. Should he attempt to contest and be given the ticket, he will sense his vulnerability 12 years after he left office much keener than when he ruled supreme and his word was nearly indisputably law. Mr Obi fights common sense and will return to his Labour Party recently retaken from the Julius Abure faction; Dr Jonathan is much calmer, sturdier, and less given to presumptions and oversimplifications. It may take him a little longer to arrange his logic well, but in the end, he will likely resist the witches of Endor bent on summoning his spirit for an ignoble cause.

  • SNAPSONG 265

    SNAPSONG 265

    When NEPA kills the light
    It kills the Nation’s Light

    It is seven days now
    Since NEPA* last remembered our address
    We have wondered through its darkness
    Stumbling like a leaderless herd

    A sunless sky disabled the solar option
    As massive clouds sabotaged the refuge
    Of the lucky rich from gated condominiums
    To the haven of Eating Chiefs

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    Here like abandoned hordes we are
    Mouthing helpless supplications
    To Nigeria’s God of Darkness, our knees
    Bruised and blemished by listless begging

    A bedlam of roaring generators
    Belching fumes and toxic tar
    From factory-size monsters
    To I-beta-pass-my-neighbour junkies

    Generating more noise than light
    As the nation loses it hearing
    And its rulers’ golden edicts are
    Smothered by the chaos of long-time incompetence

    Dark nights, damaged days
    Humless factories, lightless labs
    We stumble through the chaos
    While blaming History for our millennian blindness

    NB: I composed this poem in Ibadan, like most of its ‘NEPA’ counterparts, on a darkness-disabled night, with the light of an imported torch.

    NEPA: National Electric Power Authority – the former name of Nigeria’s power ‘authority’.

  • El-Rufai’s politics starts to unravel

    El-Rufai’s politics starts to unravel

    Even for a politician as unprincipled and iconoclastic as former Kaduna State governor Nasir el-Rufai, recanting his damning characterisation of former vice president Atiku Abubakar as a corrupt and shifty leader can be self-immolating. He may have left the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in a huff, and jumped into the turbulent Social Democratic Party (SDP) void without scruples, and may now be perching half-heartedly on the litigation-afflicted African Democratic Congress (ADC), but in the end he is no fool when it comes to his private interest and political survival. Though naturally defiant on nearly all things, he seems uncharacteristically reticent over his SDP misadventure, a blind alley he cannot apply his inventiveness to cure. That he is at present nervous about his place and role in the ADC is probably the result of the caution instilled in him by his many misadventures in recent months. He will, therefore, stay in the newly adopted old and overworn party with the hope that, firstly, the party will successfully navigate its legal labyrinth, and secondly that he and a few other regicidal Young Turks in the party can unhorse the old guard represented by Alhaji Atiku, and forge a new direction in which he will play a central role.

    Former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola has of course blithely gone off on a tangent, preaching to and soliciting the disgruntled in the Southwest, but in the foreseeable future, if circumstances permit, Mallam el-Rufai will supplant the Ogbeni and attempt to be the public and discourteous face of the ADC. He will not only remain as voluble as he is truculent, he will also posture as the battering ram of the party, but without the unflinching commitment he often gave his previous conquests. In recent weeks, rather than speak unequivocally about the ADC, he has often spoken about how the coalition would displace the ruling APC. He is deliberate. He picks his words carefully because he knows he is not yet an ADC member. What is even more striking is that he has been exceedingly careful about putting all his eggs in the Atiku basket. More and more, it appears, he is unable to live with the contradictions of helping to promote the ambition of the considerably flawed former vice president whom he had excoriated in the past in words that cause everyone to wince. Much worse, Mallam el-Rufai is also slowly beginning to realise that the country’s mood is decidedly against a northern candidate in the 2027 presidential poll. That realisation not only liberates him from his sense of duty to Alhaji Atiku, it also tantalises his ambition to be a potential running mate to a southern candidate. Later, but without great reflection, he will resolve that dilemma by settling for either Peter Obi who many people falsely think has a mythical six million plus ‘captive’ votes from the 2023 election or Rotimi Amaechi whose only acquisition so far is his inflated ego. The ADC’s legal and administrative ordeal is, however, not over. In fact, whatever analysis anyone does for now will be unreliable.

    Mallam el-Rufai has prematurely started to permute his chances in the 2027 polls. To carry out that abstraction, however, he must resolve two disturbing issues plaguing his ambition. One, he must determine just how far he should flaunt his messianic ego, with its accompanying megalomaniacal rhetoric of sentencing Nigeria to a choice between supporting him and voting for his amorphous party or risking the death and destruction that he prophesied must follow embracing the APC. Two Fridays ago, his son, Bashir, posted on X (Twitter) the need to make the same baleful choices his dad grimly predicted, insisting that some politicians must ‘die’ if the country is to become great. On August 1, he had posted: “Nigeria can become great again. Unfortunately or fortunately (depending on context) a few certain people have to kpai (die) to achieve this dream.” Mallam el-Rufai has no interest in reining in his son. He is himself a leading advocate of doom and destruction, of things getting much worse before they get better, of riding the four horses of the apocalypse. Last week, newspapers helped him inundate their front pages with his inciting rhetoric of disaster. He had described the APC as ‘dangerous to Nigeria’s future’, and that if the ruling party was re-elected, Nigerian unity would be destroyed. And for him personally, he bellowed, the next presidential election “is not just an election, it is also the fight of our lives.”

    Mallam el-Rufai is undoubtedly a bitter, divisive and acrimonious politician. He lives by incitement, that is, when he is not nurturing or validating ethnic exceptionalism. Ethically unmoored, he brings chaos and disorder to every group he joins, especially when he is denied vantage position. One prediction can, however, be safely ventured, that he will not be on any ticket in the next poll. No candidate will risk it. He is detested by most northern minority groups, deplored by nearly all Nigerian Christians, and sneered at by most political leaders for his irreverence and disloyalty. Not only will he not be on any ticket, any party where he is given prominence will be shunned. By now, Alhaji Atiku must have suspected that the former governor is double-dealing, and is ambiguous towards an Atiku candidature. After spending the early years of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration skewering the former vice president, the former governor may finally stand for something by staying true to his conclusions about Alhaji Atiku. The ADC is for now all about the Atiku ambition, but it is unclear the Young Turks in the party will stand for political antiquity. Expect a titanic battle.

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    In November 2016, Mallam el-Rufai had issued an eight-point rebuttal of Alhaji Atiku’s remark that the former Kaduna governor offered him Transcorp Hilton shares. He did not have anything to do with Transcorp, the former governor said, let alone offer anybody shares. Then he unleashed a flurry of invectives at the former vice president, accusing him of being unable to explain his shenanigans in “the Ericsson manoeuvre, in the Abuja water treatment plant contract, and his obsession with marabouts and their assurances of the political big prize. He might also consider a full reckoning for what he and his acolytes did with public funds in the PTDF imbroglio, rather than indulging the usual bold face of the Nigerian big-man.” As if that was not blistering enough, Mallam el-Rufai proceeded to ridicule the former vice president, saying: “Everyone is entitled to rehabilitation, but that often requires coming clean with the people. Can Alhaji Atiku explain the findings in the report of the United States Senate Permanent Sub-Committee on Investigations which detailed a pattern of wire transfers of more than USD 40m from offshore companies like Siemens into bank accounts controlled by him and one of his wives? The report detailing the US Senate findings is online, as one of four case histories of foreign corruption in the USA. Alhaji Atiku should tell a better tale of why he is avoiding America. Someone as obsessed by Nigeria’s presidency as he is, should clear up such matters conclusively.”

    There are many statements a politician can walk back, but these ones about Alhaji Atiku will be extremely difficult to pretend were never made. They are as damaging about the target as they are revelatory of the malevolence of the speaker. Despite being servile and groveling, Mallam el-Rufai knows full well that there is no way he can explain away his damning character portrait of the former vice president. It has indeed needed the former vice president’s defection to the ADC, not to talk of his past miscalculations and abortive presidential races, to cement his status as a political cadaver. But in embalming Alhaji Atiku, Mallam el-Rufai, the mortician, has painted himself as an unprincipled and dysfunctional man whose politics is finally unravelling.

  • Trump diminishes US democracy

    Trump diminishes US democracy

    While the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) (of Nigeria) repeatedly publishes jobs and inflation data believed to be sometimes unflattering to the President Tinubu administration, and the statistician-general has kept his job, President Trump, though presiding over an advanced democracy, has been apoplectic over adverse jobs data and has lashed out at the heads of the agencies managing the country’s data bureaux. Just last week, Mr Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, over the publication of the July jobs statistics which showed that the economy added only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations. To add insult to injury, the bureau also revised downward the data for April and May. Given the bureau’s set up, it is of course impossible for the head of the agency to rig the figures as Mr Trump has alleged, or sex it up should he desire, but he has never allowed facts or truth to restrain him from his volcanic and infantile eruptions.

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    Mr Trump has serially broken the mould in American politics in ways no elected Nigerian leader has dared. Yet, because of a few years of fundamental reforms of the Nigerian economy, and especially following the painful consequences of structurally reengineering the economy to compensate for decades of extravagance, excesses, and mismanagement, many vocal Nigerians and their equally deliberately obtuse political leaders continue to de-market Nigeria, even report Nigerian leaders to advance democracies now showing themselves to have feet of clay, and inciting the famished populace into a revolutionary frenzy through demagoguery and outright mendacities. Nigeria may not have achieved utopia, but it has made steady progress towards economic revitalisation and democratic sophistication. If US democracy under Mr Trump can become so vulnerable after more than two centuries of its establishment, it should encourage Nigerians to persevere and trust that their own progress is not a fluke.

  • Nigeria fights its destiny

    Nigeria fights its destiny

    There are no reliable statistics or academic studies known to this columnist that give an authoritative figure of the population of atheists in Nigeria. What is known and widely accepted, however, is that Nigeria is a deeply religious country, at least nominally. The implication is that they at least have a general and probably superficial understanding of the concept of a country’s manifest destiny. Decades ago, particularly after the countercoup of July 1966, and especially after the 1967-1970 civil war, the conventional political wisdom was that the North could monopolise power if they wished, or graciously permit someone else to occupy that seat while they led him by the nose. The late MKO Abiola bucked that trend, and with it, bucked a second consequential trend, to wit, Nigeria’s conventional religious wisdom. Until 1993, the understanding was that no same-faith ticket could ever win the presidency. It not only happened in 1993, it was repeated in 2023.

    Twice in two decades, Nigeria has, therefore, been gifted the opportunity of a new destiny, one devoid of bitter and divisive religious influences in its politics, and also devoid of significant and malignant influences in its ethno-regional relations. But twice within the same two decades Nigerians snatched defeat from the jaws of victory: former military head of state Ibrahim Babangida, citing extenuating security and military circumstances, annulled the very successful 1993 election and has continued to defend the profanity; and failing to understand heaven’s intervention in Nigerian affairs, a coterie of political, media, and regional conspirators has taken oath to neutralise the second chance the 2023 political reset has offered. It was unclear former president Muhammadu Buhari understood the spiritual dynamics at play in the last elections, hence his dithering and the inexplicable gesture in the direction of a northern candidate. But heaven forcefully intervened against the run of play, against months of ridicule of the Bola Tinubu candidature, and against the disgraceful clamour for a coup d’etat after the election was decided.

    Shortly before the advent of the Fourth Republic, and by a brilliant stroke of serendipity, Nigerians had devised an informal political formula capable of generating some measure of stability for the country and its people. That formula was and remains embedded in the principle of rotating the presidency between the North and the South. Heedlessly, some leading members of the political elite have, however, scorned the formula, and continued to demonstrate insensitivity, if not total callousness, to what destiny is gifting them. Consequently, once again, the country’s politics is in danger of being rebooted to the past era when malignant religious and regional influences were not only tolerated but also promoted. Recognising that the South occupies the presidency at the moment, a few presidential aspirants for the next poll make half-hearted concessions to the new political realities by swearing to do just one term, but it is not clear by what ingenious arithmetic those of them who come from the North could make the same promise.

    From all indications, however, the coalition of political forces determined to abridge or abrogate the progress made so far looks set to fail. It is tragic that former president Olusegun Obasanjo did not understand the spiritual dimension of the 1993 and 2023 presidential elections; it is disturbing that ex-president Buhari did not also understand it; and worse, even ignoring boastful politicians who covet the presidency from all corners of the country, it is also mystifying that the media have shown dereliction in understanding the complex dynamics that conduce to Nigeria’s prosperity and long-term stability. As the piece below on US president Donald Trump shows, Nigeria has indeed made significant economic and democratic leaps despite vicious attacks by opposition and centrifugal forces in contrast to Mr Trump’s persistent deflation of American democracy. Former president Buhari might have found his autocratic instincts sometimes irresistible, but he grew to treat the printed and verbal caricatures of him with unaccustomed lightheartedness.

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    Ex-president Goodluck Jonathan was also heavily irritated by the verbal and published lacerations of his person and wife, but he stopped short of intimidating, silencing or destroying the opposition. President Tinubu has been even more shockingly liberal. Before his election, immediately after the election, and up till now, he has shrugged off the scurrilous attacks upon his person, style, and policies. The attacks have in fact been democratised and detribalised across regions, ethnicities and religions. In the US, Republicans are petrified of President Trump, and Democrats, Muslims, foreign dignitaries and heads of state, and immigrants dread him and his waspish tongue and erratic policies. He has pulverised his enemies, promoted racism, and decimated the opposition to the point of mocking their persons and even threatening to arrest his predecessors for treason. Nigeria has been a far better and a more predictable and pleasant place for foreigners, citizens and opposition/coalition forces to live, do business, and even pontificate sometimes misguidedly on arcane issues.

    Nigerians do their country a huge disservice by letting their economic difficulties obscure and diminish the progress their country has made over the years. Plotting to undo that progress by making unwise recourse to ethnic and religious fault lines is not only dangerous, it is also suicidal. There are of course highly informed and perceptive politicians across regions and religions who understand the new dynamics of Nigerian politics, and have preached tolerance, accommodation, and patience. It is, however, not certain that they are not in the minority. But while they and their convictions represent the future direction of the country, there is still a significant number of Nigerians bent on encouraging prejudiced and shortsighted political leaders to hoodwink the ignorant majority in the poverty regions of the country. A great opportunity to reset Nigeria, perhaps incrementally but substantially, but the political coalition is unlikely to be impressed by the shape of things to come, or the expression of hope and enthusiasm in the midst of hunger and deprivation. To lose or endanger this opportunity because of petty hatred, ignorant economic analysis, and the denial and belittlement of the progress already made, will ultimately doom the country. It is a choice the country has to make in the next election. What option they embrace will determine whether the country will lose all the advantages that have accrued to the country since 1999 or gain and affirm the positive economic revolution about to take off.

  • Ghana and Tanzania Vs. Igbo and Kenyans

    Ghana and Tanzania Vs. Igbo and Kenyans

    It was a curious and disturbing parallel made more poignant by the timing. In the closing days of July, both Ghana and Tanzania were up in arms against the influx of foreign small-scale businesses in their countries. In the case of Ghana, the animosity was unofficial, not quite elevated to policy level beyond the restrictions applied over a decade ago against foreigners, specifically retail traders of whom the Igbo were noticeable. For Tanzania, the animosity was official, with Trade minister Selemani Jafo announcing wide-ranging restrictions against foreigners operating small businesses. Kenyans dominate that sector in Tanzania, and the restrictions were widely interpreted as targeting them. The Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC) Act 2013, revivified some two years ago, provides for, among other regulations, minimum capital requirements for foreigners amounting to one million dollars for small businesses, and limiting them to economic sectors they could operate in. Nigerians, particularly the Igbo, insisted they were the main target, even though the law is not country-specific.

    Late last month, the problem recrudesced, this time with Ghanaian protesters singling out the Igbo for mention as the leading violators of the 2013 Act. They accused foreigners of sundry business crimes and violations, including immigration offences, non-payment or under-payment of business permits, falsification of business documents, tax evasion, and trading in substandard goods, etc. Ghana’s President John Mahama has, however, promised that Nigerians would not be discriminated against, but many foreigners recalled that since 2013, the problem and the discrimination had flared almost annually. For as long as the problem remained, and as long as a distinct group of people represents the face of the provocation, the periodic eruptions will persist. In fact, there does not seem to be an end to the push and pull. The Igbo, who are the face of the provocation in Ghana, must find a way through their unions, the Nigerian diaspora group, and diplomatic efforts to manage the problem. After all, as everyone knows, xenophobia, even in its mildest form, is ubiquitous.

    Even though relations between the two East African Community (EAC) countries of Tanzania and Kenya have not been at their best, the recent flare-up over the foreign-run small-scale businesses in Tanzania began at the end of July, with no end in sight. Last week, according to Mr Jafo, foreign nationals (read Kenyans), are prohibited from owning or operating small-scale businesses in about 15 sectors, including tour guiding, beauty salons, gift shops, radio and television operations, mobile money transfers, etc. Predictably, Kenya has argued that though the cap fits Kenyan businessmen in Tanzania, they won’t wear it because it violates the principles of the EAC. More, Kenyan Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui has called for the abrogation of the restrictions. According to him, it would have a negative effect on the economies of the two East African countries. In a statement he issued last week, he said, “It is therefore critical, in the spirit of EAC, that bilateral engagements be held to resolve these issues.” What is evident in all this is that, like the case between Nigeria and Ghana, Kenyan businesses stand to lose much more should the dispute persist.

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    Interestingly, even within Nigeria, this discriminatory sentiment exists on a pernicious scale. During the pogrom that preceded the Nigerian civil war in 1967, protesters targeted the businesses of their antagonists, and have since continued to inflict similar punishment on local migrants who dominate certain sectors of the economies of host communities. In the absence of tenable political structures, the discrimination or punitive restrictions and regulations have begun to expand alarmingly into the political arena. It is a continuing challenge every jurisdiction must find creative ways of managing. Germany was unable to manage its skewed business relationship with affluent Jews before WWII, thus leading to the November 1938 pogrom or Night of Broken Glass (Kristallnacht). If regional economic groupings and competing countries struggle to manage such crises, they are even far more difficult to manage domestically because of its sometimes political ripple effects.

    Kenya may have inadvertently provided the solution to the regulatory disputes provoked by foreign-owned businesses. In his reflections on the dispute instigated by Tanzanian regulations on foreign-owned businesses, Mr Kinyanjui suggested ‘bilateral engagements’ to resolve the problematic and mildly xenophobic responses. But regardless of whether these tough regulations are provoked by settler communities within a country or across squabbling countries, it is important to be sensitive about host communities. They must never be taken for granted. They have their fears and they suffer certain deprivations. Boastful foreigners who flaunt their wealth in the face of deprived locals will inevitably always cause their hosts to kick against economic domination, discrimination or oppression. It is a natural reaction, especially when there are underlying structural imbalances in the polity. While diplomatic engagements may resolve disputes between countries, such as between Ghana and Nigeria, and between Tanzania and Kenya, only political restructuring can obviate social and political eruptions capable of threatening state stability domestically.

  • Responding to bloodthirsty incitement

    Responding to bloodthirsty incitement

    Too many Nigerians can’t draw a line between the constitutional provision of free speech and the criminal act of incitement. But the law enforcement agencies and security agencies know the difference; yet they have been slothful in enforcing the law. The reason for the wariness, ironically, is that both the government and the security agencies are scared of being described as autocrats. The 1999 Nigerian Constitution is unambiguous about what constitute civil rights and what do not. Why the government and the security agencies prefer to loiter in the inexistent grey areas is indeed hard to tell.

    Two Saturdays ago, Nasir el-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State, was in Sokoto State during his mobilisation effort for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). There, he described as dangerous to the polity any attempt by the electorate to re-elect the All Progressives Congress (APC) into office. As far as he was concerned, he roared, the next presidential election “will not be just an election but the fight of our lives.” In short, it’s a do-or-die affair. This was not just hysteria or hyperbole; it was also criminal incitement clumsily hiding behind the constitutional provision of free speech.

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    Days later, Charles Oputa, aka Charly Boy, was even more rabid. Speaking in an interview last week, he said: “All I’m interested in right now is: will our votes count in 2027? How do we do it? How do we get these monsters away from leadership positions? It’s not about Mr A can steal more than Mr B. The people stealing our national wealth are from all the tribes. We know the game. But I’m hoping to see ‘rig and die’ come 2027. Blood will flow; before it gets better, it will get worse.” Please, mind his language: he speaks deliriously about ‘monsters’ who must be removed from leadership, and he wants to see ‘rig and die’, and worse, he wants ‘blood to flow’ because, in his twisted mind, ‘it must get worse before it gets better’.

    Men like Mallam el-Rufai and Charly Boy have a death wish for themselves and the entire country. But they market their hysteria and ‘bloody revolution’ because the security agencies inexplicably give them the latitude. Tragically, in their deplorable logic, government is filled with monsters, and the opposition manned by saints. More dangerously, any other result other than the one they expect must have been rigged. No generation of Nigerians has been so fanatical than the one exemplified by the two quoted individuals, one of whom has no sense of moderation, and the other no iota of gravitas.

  • The Planes of Heathrow

    The Planes of Heathrow

    How Nations Miss Their Flights

    Nothing in human experience can be more exciting and exhilarating than suddenly beholding from the skies, the dazzling arrays of planes and aircrafts below as your own began its final approach at a major international airport. This was the experience last Thursday morning at London’s Heathrow Airport as the sleek Air-France jet descended on the English skies from the French side of the Channel. This morning, the typically British weather, at first blurry and bleary-eyed, began to show some signs of cheeriness and gaiety. A few of the planes were gliding and sliding into position and formation ready to vanish into the clouds. Most were nestling in supine splendor primed and poised to display their awesome capacity for superhuman speed and velocity at short notice. Daedalus and Icarus would be proud of human achievement and the strides humanity has taken in its heroic efforts to take to the sky, unlike the father-son experiment which ended in a huge fiasco a long time ago.

    In the over fifty years’ experience of watching planes come and go, one had become an addict of plane-spotting. The obsession had led one to become a denizen of airport hotels all over the world. The closer the airport is to actual plane landing and taking off, the better. The best in this regard is the defunct Hilton Hotel just outside JFK Airport in Jamaica, New York, before it was parceled out and turned into luxury apartments.  From the vantage point of its Executive Lounge on the twelfth floor, you could watch as aircrafts come and go and contemplate planes parked with orderly precision in endless rows like monster-birds in a historical formation. These different planes, in their glamour and prestige, advertise the wellbeing and continuous viability of their owner nations. As such, they are projections of what is known as soft power, the capacity to convince and influence without resorting to naked force or raw coercion.

     As planes of all colour and hues came into view this morning at Heathrow, you came to the conclusion that this is like a congregation of nations. Apart from the big hitters such as America, Britain, Germany, France, Canada, Holland, Japan, Australia and the emergent Arab economic powerhouses of Saudi, Qatar and UAE, you had planes from Argentina, Brazil, Austria, Italy, Malta, Norway, Sweden, Cyprus, Finland, Iceland, China, South Korea, Ireland and Russia. The negligible African presence is made up of Rwanda, Kenya, South Africa, Ethiopia, Morocco, Ghana and Egypt. The rest of the continent is an ominous void. You ask the Ghanaian driver who came to pick you up why Terminal Four at Heathrow Airport appears to be less busy than the others and he looked at you with diffident surprise. “Ha, sir, that may be true, but you wait until Air Indian arrives and all hell is let loose with all kinds”, he noted with a wry grin and then became glum and uncommunicative again, as if he was not the one you just heard. It is a strategy of survival and every wise soul in a foreign clime knows when to shut their trap, particularly in a period of hysterical nationalism and colour-combing.

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        The mood this morning darkened into sombre despondency. It is more like looking down below in anger. It is said that birds of the same feather flock together. But it can also be established that birds or nations of the same plumage bandy together. You see, all happy nations are the same, but every unhappy nation is unhappy in its own uniquely unhappy way. You suddenly realized that your beloved country, Nigeria, is nowhere to be found in this glittering commonwealth of nations, this assemblage of flying nations in their glorious plumes. The metaphor of a grounded bird is very appropriate. Nigeria has lost its capacity to take to the sky. It has winged itself with its clumpy mass hugging the bare earth, unable to fly or even walk. It has become the proverbial edun arinle, a species of monkey that has lost its aerial mobility and capacity for energetic acrobatics which now consoles itself by hurling stones at its more fortunate siblings on tree branches.

      You had left home in anger and a near-fatal weariness of the soul as members of the fractious and unproductive political class bicker endlessly about who will rule Nigeria in two years’ time even as the nation shows early warning signals of expiring from the stress and trauma of serial gang-raping. They are too far gone for the murderous absurdity to be apparent to them. Too much politics ruins a nation. What the nation needs is a moratorium on politics which will allow it to deal with its hobbling contradictions. If this is not done in circumstances of peaceful abeyance of partisan politics, it will be done in conditions of total state enervation by converging forces of economic, political, social and spiritual bankruptcy.

      But as the siege-smart Arabs will gladly let you know, to flee your fate is to rush to find it. If you think that you have safely absconded from the political horror show at home, the first rush of foreign air confronts you with the tragedy of aborted hope and unfulfilled expectations that has become an integral item of your baggage. If you are too tired and drowsy to take in Charles De Gaulle Airport in its heady magnificence and sheer class, Heathrow is like history that will not let you be however much you try to evade or avoid it. The planes of Heathrow drop on you like a bomb the stark truth of state failure and national incapacitation. In Nigeria, ethnicity is so weaponized by the ruling elites that it becomes the most veritable instrument of checkmating the state and curtailing national development. It is perhaps only in Nigeria that ethnic cohorts of a former top official being tried for corrupt self-enrichment and criminal embezzlement of state funds will besiege the court and cause the termination of further proceedings. All the major ethnic groups deploy weapons of choice which includes ethnic violence against the state, economic terrorism against the nation and the mobilization of cultural and intellectual resources against both the state and the nation.

      Since the postcolonial state is seen by ruling classes as a hostile alien construct which must be invaded and destroyed rather than a mechanism for resolving ethnic conflicts and elite disputes arising from the distribution of resources, the void arising is taken over by multifarious clashes and polarizations with the apex conflict being about who presides over the distribution of national resources at a particular time and for how long. The forces that drive the conflict also make sure that there is no recourse to egalitarian distribution or inclusive governance, a situation which fuels further clamours and attempts to derail the ruling group. It is a war of all against all with no end in sight until a dominant warlord emerges who forcibly puts an end to the crisis by imposing his own solution. This is what has happened in Cote D’Ivoire as Alisane Quattara is poised to win his fourth term and all is quiet on the Cocody front, after partitioning and civil war; just as it happened earlier in Uganda in 1986, Congo Brazzaville in 1997 and Rwanda in 1994 after genocide.

     A nation’s external borders are never fixed and unalterable if its normative and ethical boundaries remain loose and alterable. This is the problem with inauthentic and inorganic African nations whose normative boundaries are marked by lack of fixity and rigid rules of engagement or what can be called an absence of founding values and charter of association. Because of this fundamental lack of a primal organogram, there is a reign of economic and political injustice in most of these countries which makes them permanent preys and habitual hostages to instability. Hence, the constant cries for an urgent resolution of the National Question and convocation of a national conference either sovereign or non-sovereign. The snag here is the permanent lack of elite unanimity with those sections of the elite holding the wrong end of the stick being loudest in condemnation but going into complicit quietude once the balance of power alters. As it has happened with many African countries that we enumerated above, there is no exceptionalism driving political evolution in Nigeria and the situation remains very vulnerable to the emergence of a supreme law-giver after all elite passion might have been spent.

      Going back to our plane-spotting, it is noteworthy that up till the last minute of the last administration, the incumbent Minister of Aviation was reassuring his compatriots that a wholly owned indigenous national carrier was on the cards and that planes from its hangars were about to materialize out of the skies like those wonder birds out of Heathrow Airport last Thursday. In an exemplary feat of congenital crookedness, an aircraft belonging to Ethiopian Airlines was hurriedly rented and painted in Nigerian colours just to sustain and feed the illusion of Nigerians eagerly awaiting the dawn of a new national carrier. It was a gargantuan scam shot through with bizarre idiocies that could only be contemplated by a member of a privileged clan that had lost all sense of proportion and propriety. When the same minister was brought to court for other indiscretions, he was hugged and mobbed by his admiring and adulating ethnic cohorts obviously ready for any emergency. This is what happens to nations without normative and ethical boundaries. And reprieve will not come from the skies. Only planes from well-organized countries do. Last Thursday, Nigeria was not at Heathrow.

  • Divinely and dutifully, the Doyen goes home

    Divinely and dutifully, the Doyen goes home

    She was the perfect embodiment of steeliness and stateliness. Her slight frame belies the iron infrastructure. She did not suffer fools gladly and fools gladly avoided her. Political correctness if only for the sake of avoiding conflict was not her forte. Let conflict avoid her. The lady was not for turning. But on Tuesday evening, five months into her eighty second year on earth, the lady finally turned to meet her maker in a gesture of steely compliance. There goes our dear friend and doyen of intellectual journalism in Nigeria, Doyinsola Abiola, wife of the late business mogul and martyred president of Nigeria, Mashood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola.

     Snooper mourns a personal friend and a friend of the column. She was a rugged pioneer in the field of intellectual journalism, a remarkable phase which as the name implies moved journalism away from being a recruiting den of deadwood and the flotsam and jetsam of the society to a glittering parade of the best and the brightest of the profession. Fiercely determined, strong-willed and impressively credentialed, nothing could have stopped the young woman from reaching the top of her chosen profession. Educated in the best schools both at home and abroad, there was something reassuring and refreshing about her self-confidence and the lucidity of writing and self-expression. In her prime and up till the point she succumbed to frailty of health, she was always bubbling with ideas and fresh projects. Little wonder that she shot through the ranks of the profession like a meteor, becoming a much sought after Features Editor and later a full editor of a newspaper, arguably the first in the profession, and later as the Managing Director of the whole publishing conglomerate. In all this, she excelled in her capacity for brilliant innovation, for dutiful mentoring of the younger generation and for technical trail-blazing the like of which had not been seen in the country before. More importantly, she led from the front in times of danger and dark scheming like a first class warrior and granddaughter of an illustrious generalissimo of the redoubtable Egba people, Balogun Aboaba.

    Read Also: Ambode denies ADC defection rumours

       Despite her professional accomplishments and glittering reputation as a newspaper administrator and first class editorialist and features writer, it was perhaps on the home front that this remarkable woman recorded her greatest achievement, as devoted and dutiful wife of MKO Abiola and as an unfailing intellectual consort to the man who would be president at arguably at the most turbulent period of Nigeria’s post civil war history. Home was a front indeed. Coming from a Christian and monogamous background, and from the cloistered ambience of doting parents, nothing could have prepared the young lady for the chaotic disorder of Abiola’s freewheeling liaisons and relentless pursuits of fresh game. But she bore it all often with a calm bemusement and sometimes with a vexed irritability which cut no ice with the games master. Abiola once famously noted of Margaret Thatcher that for every iron lady, there is an iron bender somewhere. The Gbagura chief was also a man of monumental fortitude and gutsiness which provided a perfect foil for her sophisticated sniffing and upper class nitpicking.

       The collaboration worked very well, providing a cerebral armature for Abiola’s worldly pursuits particularly his assault on the Nigerian military presidency. While providing intellectual cover for the Egba magnate, his more cerebral wife sought to impose some order on the life style of a man who was more intelligent than intellectual. Sometimes, it worked but most times it was the politically savvy sorties of the street smart merchant that prevailed. Doyin once told the columnist that each time she berated Abiola for the unwholesomeness of some of his associations and his tendency to parley with criminal-minded ruffians and ragamuffin, —awon asinwin ati asinde—he would retort that you must be ready to spend a lot on lies before you can buy some truths. It was a friendship of two endowed but temperamentally dissimilar people made in heaven. May Hamidat Doyinsola rest in perfect peace.