The Nation Newspaper

Category: Opinion

  • Cyber-attacks: Banana peels on Nigeria’s road to technological progress

    Cyber-attacks: Banana peels on Nigeria’s road to technological progress

    By Shuaib S. Agaka

    SIR: Nigeria’s technological landscape has always been advancing but its vulnerability to cyber-attacks is becoming alarming and thus limiting the corresponding optimum productivity.

    For example, in March 2023, the federal government made a shocking revelation that not less than 12,988,978 cyberattacks were recorded during the presidential and National Assembly elections held in February of the same year.

    Therefore, in the expansive realm of Nigeria’s digital landscape, the presence of cyber threats poses a significant challenge to the nation’s technological progress as new innovations continue to emerge on a daily basis.

    Recent statistics paint a dirty mark of the escalating frequency and sophistication of cyber threats within the country. From ransomware assaults to phishing attacks, the tactics employed by cybercriminals demand a thoughtful response. It has become even more pressing in light of high-profile incidents that have left a lasting impact on businesses, individuals, and the overall digital infrastructure of the country.

    According to a report by Kaspersky in June 2023, Nigeria faces the second-highest number of cyberattacks in Africa and ranked 50th globally. According to Kaspersky Security Network, the country was increasingly becoming a focal point for cyber threats.

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    Similarly, a renowned Fintech Company and digital marketplace in Nigeria, Patricia, was reported to have suffered a cyberattack that led to its loss of about $2 million in 2022.

    Over the past two years, the servers of the National Population Commission (NPC), Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and prominent universities in Nigeria have experienced cyber-attacks.

    These instances underscore the severity of cyberattacks, emphasizing that addressing them is not a trivial matter. Providing effective and accurate solutions to curb these threats is absolutely essential.

    Combating this problem requires comprehensive policy frameworks that align with international cybersecurity standards. Frameworks that will serve as guiding principles for both public and private entities, fostering a unified approach to cybersecurity should be enhanced.

    As the nation stands at the intersection of technological progress and cybersecurity challenges, the collaborative efforts of stakeholders, coupled with forward-thinking strategies, are essential for navigating the dynamic and ever-evolving landscape of digital threats.

    The journey towards a cyber-secured Nigeria requires a collective commitment, and the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) stands as a key player in shaping the nation’s digital future.

    •  Shuaib S. Agaka, (NYSC) Kano.

  • Pulaaku Initiative: Tinubu’s message of hope to the north

    Pulaaku Initiative: Tinubu’s message of hope to the north

    By Modibo Mustapha

    It was the first Nigeria Army Chief of Staff and former military governor of the defunct Northern Region, late General Hassan Usman Katsina (Ciroman Katsina), that described in the social menace of begging and destitution in the North as a Hausa-Fulani community problem. He said this during a media chart on an NTA network program in February 1992. Exactly 32 years ago.

    In his frank characteristic, the late Ciroman Kastina (of blessed memory) attributed the unfortunate situation to the failure of “the current leaders of the North including myself”, and that “only we the northern leaders can find a lasting solution to the problem”.

    This statement will not come as a surprise to those who were familiar with the frankness and truthfulness of the late General.

    He then called on the northern leadership to work in unison, towards improving the condition of living in the region, through the provision of formal education and social amenities to the people, so that the menacing culture of begging on the streets of the north will be considerably minimized or completely eradicated.  He further warned that if the situation is left unchecked, it may snowball into a major problem, with dire consequences to the peace and stability of the entire nation.

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    Many will agree that the late General predicted the security situation of today over three decades ago.

    However, before that remarkable statement was made by the late General Hassan Katsina on the regrettable culture of begging in the north, Professor Jubril Aminu, as Nigeria’s Minister of Education in 1989, had introduced the concept of nomadic education into the nation’s educational system.  

    Many at that time, did not understand the passion with which Prof. Aminu wanted to take formal education to the nomadic Fulanis in the forests. With the benefit of hindsight today, one can sadly attest to the fact that the worries and warnings of both late General Katsina and Professor Aminu have been justified. This is in view of the criminal recruitment in droves, of uneducated northern children begging on the streets, and the illiterate nomadic Fulanis in the forests, into the army of kidnapers, bandits, and terrorists that are currently unleashing mayhem on Nigerians.

    It will not be considered an exaggeration to say that the absence of formal education and lack of social amenities for vulnerable children that are begging on the streets combined with the deliberate isolation of the nomadic Fulanis from general socio-political economic activities by government, have both contributed immensely to the frightening spate of insecurity in the North.

    When on Tuesday, January 30, a group of policy analysts in Abuja known as the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), identified the recently established Pulaaku Initiative as the long awaited non- kinetic solution that can drastically reduce the susceptibility of vulnerable children and the nomadic Fulanis to the heinous crimes of kidnaping, banditry, and terrorism in the North, there was a sigh of relief among many opinion leaders across the nation. 

    The personal commitment and political will with which President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved the establishment of the Pulaaku Initiative can be seen in the rapid release of the sum of N50 billion operational fund for its immediate take off.

    However, as good and thoughtful as the initiative appears, the challenge still remains that the intended beneficiaries of the new program need to be effectively mobilized and carried along in its implementation. This is absolutely a challenge to the northern establishment.

    It will amount to major failure and a monumental self-indictment on the part of northerners in government, either in elective or appointive offices, Vice President Kashim Shattima, who is coincidentally the custodian of the Pulaaku Initiative inclusive, if this presidential opportunity for the return of peace and stability to the region is wasted.

    Leaders from the North, irrespective of their political leaning or inclination, are expected to unite and give the Pulaaku Initiative the needed support to succeed.

     The emphasis of the Pulaaku Initiative on the provision of formal education and other social amenities will go a very long way to give the vulnerable children in the North and the nomadic Fulanis a sense of belonging and formal orientation, needed to interact with their immediate social environment without fear of complex and discrimination.

    The nomadic Fulanis in Northern Nigeria have been neglected for too long, owing to the failure of governments at all levels. The Pulaaku Initiative is the first policy of its kind, ever deployed by government with a deliberate intention to create government presence within the nomadic communities in the North.

     This above objective, more than any other thing, should be more important to the North at this crucial point in time when peace and social stability seems to have eluded the region.

    It is therefore incumbent on the current northern political class to pay more attention to issues like this that will bring genuine development to the people of the region, and to desist from distractive arguments on mundane issues like the unwarranted controversy over the transfer of some federal government officials to Lagos from Abuja.  This is gibberish, and a lallation of the highest order.

    Mr. President needs to be commended and encouraged to sustain his interest and spirited efforts on the implementation of the Pulaaku Initiative so that the goals and objectives of the initiative can be achieved within a reasonable period of time, to the credit of his administration.

    Duty therefore beckons on Vice President Kashim Shattima to use his good office to convene a summit of various leaders of the Fulani herdsmen, and the owners of the Sangaya Islamiya schools in the North. They are indispensable stakeholders in the Pulaaku Initiative of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and enlisting their passion and support for the scheme will largely determine its success.

    Finally, the need for the North to support the Tinubu administration cannot be over emphasized in this context. The appalling neglect of socio-economic issues relating to the herdsmen and the Sangaya Islamic education system by successive governments in Nigeria is the tap root of the current insecurity in the North.

    The North must support the president for what Niyi Akinsiju, chairman of the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), aptly described at a press conference in January as a “creative and pragmatic intervention that will most likely change the narratives around insecurity in the country”.

    • Mustapha is a legal practitioner based in Yola, Adamawa State.

  • Much ado about hostile takeovers

    Much ado about hostile takeovers

    By Abdullahi Usman

    There have been a few write-ups and commentaries on the above subject lately, and it is quite amusing how an event that represents a classic case of the familiar boardroom coup, in the form of the hostile takeover of a bank from its previous owners several years ago, is now suddenly being criminalised. The acquiring parties in the transaction have been dubbed “political thieves” in one instance and projected in similar uncomplimentary epithets in several other instances.

    We may not approve of it, all right, but without going into the specifics of the institution and personalities involved in the case at hand, hostile takeovers are widely accepted forms of acquiring businesses. They also do occur with something of uncommon regularity the world over, every now and then.

    Hostile takeovers refer to the acquisition of targeted corporations, often against the express or tacit wishes and preferences of their existing board and management. Plus, they are perfectly legal and effectively regulated, with adequate provisions to deal with errant behaviour on either side. They are distinct from friendly takeovers, in which the two parties to the transaction mutually agree to cooperate towards the same result. 

    Often accomplished by stealth, a hostile takeover takes place when an acquiring entity, also described as the acquirer or aggressor, desires to attain full control of the target company by way of the surreptitious acquisition of a significant enough quantum of its shares from existing shareholders. More often than not, that is achieved without the prior knowledge, sanction, and/or cooperation of the target company’s existing management and/or owners, who are subsequently bought out in the end.

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    It is imperative to stress at this point that the entire setting around the hostile takeover undertaking is centred around the application of the willing-buyer, willing-seller principle; between and amongst holders of the target company’s stocks and potential investors desirous of acquiring same, and it is achieved through the instrumentality of the appropriate medium for the trading of the stocks. 

    Through such legal stock transactions, the stake of the original owners or majority shareholders gradually gets diluted as the shares exchange hands and new buyers are brought in; a process that can be accomplished within a relatively short time span or over an extended period from start to finish. Once the aggressor has acquired a reasonable enough proportion of shares to trigger a takeover, the deed is as good as done.

    Of course, in all probability, the target company would view a hostile takeover as nothing short of a brazen assault or an undesirable invasion aimed at undermining the independence and effective control of its existing management team. And rightly so too. Conversely, advocates and/or supporters of hostile takeovers would argue that they help stimulate and promote impactful positive changes and improvements in the acquired entity. These can manifest in the form of improved corporate governance practices, along with enhanced operational efficiencies and increased shareholder value in the acquired entity.

     Now, we may not approve of the methods employed in the case of Access Bank acquisition well over two decades ago today, for example, and that is fine. But the next logical and honest question we should all ask ourselves is whether or not the acquisition and subsequent takeover of the bank from its initial promoters has achieved the above-stated objectives.

     And a dispassionate response to that question should necessarily take into consideration the current standing of the bank in the industry, vis-a-vis the state it was prior to the acquisition, while also not losing sight of the fact that many of the bank’s contemporaries established at or about the same time with it have since gone under.

    It is also worthy of note that the same or similar hostile takeover practices that some of the write-ups in reference actively seek to criminalise are still happening, both in the nation’s financial services industry and in other critical sectors of the economy even as we speak. 

    Indeed, the latest of such takeovers occurred just recently when Femi Otedola effectively took over as chair of First Bank of Nigeria (FBN) Holdings Plc in a similar fashion, by virtue of his becoming the largest shareholder of the bank through his direct and indirect holdings. Another instance, albeit a failed one, would be that of the attempted takeover of Transcorp Plc, with investments in the hospitality, power, and oil & gas sectors, also by the same investor not long ago. This was, however, promptly resolved amicably through negotiations between the two parties, in the overall best interest of the organisation.

    Other notable examples of hostile takeovers from across the world include the acquisition of Time Warner by America Online Inc. (AOL), regarded as the biggest and one of the most aggressive takeover bids to date; InBev’s acquisition of Anheuser – Busch, maker of Budweiser in mid-2008; the acquisition of PeopleSoft by Oracle towards the end of 2004; that of RBS and ABN Amro in October 2007; and Kraft Foods’ takeover of Cadbury, amongst several others.

    Of course, there are several initiative-taking and reactive defensive strategies out there that can be employed to guard against hostile takeovers and/or respond to them, which the original promoters of Access Bank obviously failed to take advantage of at the time. But that is an entirely different discussion.

  • When the Police dangle their carrot

    When the Police dangle their carrot

    By Banji Ojewale

    A child stands before a disciplinarian parent he has wronged. There’s considerably safe distance between them. The child could flee if a whip magically leaps into the hands of the offended. But there’s no cane at the moment with the man who is never seen without the opa, (baton). The young fellow sees something else with the man staring at him: a basket of assorted fruits and sweets. He’s inviting him to come closer to take his pick: fresh fruits or sweets? No cane on offer. The lad is surveying the surroundings. Something isn’t adding up. A rod hidden somewhere?

    Is the basket a Trojan horse? The older man breaks the ice. He throws his arms wide open, and swings around 360 degrees to assure the calculating boy he has no malevolent agenda. This is fair and transparent, the boy concludes. So, he moves gingerly into the free hands of the man he has always known as the unforgiving rod man. What follows is a feast, a dialogue and the creation of a new world to banish the cat-and-mouse relationship between them.

    This skit is the fictional rendition of what the Ogun State Police Command under Alamutu Abiodun Mustapha did the other day to elicit the support of the community in the war on insecurity in the land. Commissioner of Police Mustapha and his management team brought together more than 1000 artisans, largely woodworkers and furniture makers, hosting them to a seminar at the Police Officers’ Wives Association, POWA Hall, Police Command Headquarters, Eleweran, Abeokuta.

    It was the maiden edition of a non-kinetic initiative to usher the citizens of Ogun into a strategic Police-Community partnership against insecurity. The seminar, with the collaboration of the Police Public Relations Department headed by Omololu Odutola, had the theme, Strengthening and Fostering Security in Ogun State. According to the Police Public Relations Officer, Alamutu ‘’invited (the artisans) to collaborate with them as a means of grassroots policing…(with a view to) knowing and working closely with them.’’

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    The Ogun CP said he was impressed with the large turnout of the artisans, interpreting it as a significant demonstration of their love for the police in the state. He extolled their stand on the dignity of labour and commended them for shunning crime and anti-social activities to earn a living legitimately. Alamutu advised the young apprentices to stick to ‘’integrity and dignity’’. Applying their educational and vocational skills, he counselled, is more valuable than going into criminality and cult-related tendencies. Besides, he said, insecurity in society is held at bay if its teeming youngsters are engaged in productive callings that make them inaccessible to crime godfathers and unpatriotic politicians.

    The police boss was joined by Governor Dapo Abiodun’s aides who offered security tips and admonition on being upright and satisfied with one’s rightly earned income.

    This move of assembling the youngsters for a pep talk on attitudinal change must be the way forward to getting a vibrant section of the community involved in rescuing our crime-wracked land. It must be the cornerstone in the emerging conversation about community policing, away from the orthodox approach of battling insecurity only with guns and bullets. To a large extent, we’ve remained in the same spot over the decades wielding kinetic tools to tame crime, which, on its own, hasn’t remained the same, but has taken on frighteningly monstrous shapes from age to age.

    The police, with the entire paraphernalia of state authority, needs to bond with the neighbourhood content of society to secure the people. Our security personnel must engage the grassroots in strategic synergy over the final goal of returning us all to the path of sanity, peace and law and order. As it is, the answer to the crisis is no longer exclusively in the conventional confines and abodes of our compatriots in uniform. These gallant men and women and officers need the input of the larger society. They’re being overrun by the sheer numbers of criminals exploiting socioeconomic challenges and our weak and leaky political fabric to unleash havoc on us.

    It’s clear that we can’t afford to have the ranks of these social adversaries grow. They must not only be depopulated; we must also work hard to prevent others from joining them.

    The authorities may go ahead with plans to recruit more police personnel and kit them with sophisticated weapons needed to outmatch those of the miscreants. We can lean on the limitless prospects proffered by Artificial Intelligence, AI, even as we rely heavily on confidential information on suspicious movements. But the bedrock of the new order should be creating a nexus between the law and community, the bottom strata of society: market women, traders, artisans, students, workers, drivers, the unemployed etc. The community policing we’re talking about as an urgent necessity is going to be built around them. They know the ecosystem of crime more than the authorities. It’s clear to me that was the point the police in Ogun made in meeting those 1000+ artisans for a strategic relationship in the war on crime.

    Subsequently, it’s going to be easy for the Police to work with them in areas of intelligence-gathering to deal with communal infractions. Trust with confidentiality, long lacked between them, will be in place to disallow suspicious body language and acts. On the part of the authorities, they must reform the police operatives to truly portray themselves as the friends of the citizens. Genuine friends don’t exploit; they don’t dehumanize; they don’t compromise to undermine the law they’re meant to underpin; they don’t make merchandise of ignorant motorists and pedestrians, when a caring word of enlightenment could settle the issues instead of the usual threat of arrests and demand for financial gratification; nor do they enter into deals with felons to defraud or destroy the state, its institutions and its people.

    Let’s hit the vulnerable underbelly of insecurity by engaging in serious community-based policing. We can’t achieve results otherwise. We never did when we stuck to the one-sided kinetic approach all these years. It’s certain we’d be experiencing the same old fruitlessness if we continue in that same old barren road.

    • Ojewale is writer in Ota, Ogun State.

  • Threats against Nigeria

    Threats against Nigeria

    By Comrade Bishir Dauda Sabuwar

    SIR: Late Dr. Yusufu Bala Usman of blessed memory in his book entitled – Misrepresentation of Nigeria: The Facts and Figures succinctly said that there is no country in the world whose corporate co-existence is vociferously attacked by a section of its political elites like Nigeria. He however reminded us that there is no country that is devoid of challenges.

    But in the case of Nigeria, there are some active antagonists who want to undermine our confidence in our country. These pseudo advocates challenge Nigeria’s constitution, border, ethnic composition, etc

    In that book, Dr. Bala warned us about the breakup of Nigeria. As the most populous black nation on earth, there is no country in West Africa that can accommodate the sheer number of the refugees in case Nigeria breaks up.

    As a historian of international repute, Yusufu Bala Usman was a foremost nationalist. He spent his entire life exposing manipulations by political elites.

    Bala Usman was not an ethnic champion. He was a fierce protagonist of one Nigeria. People who are amplifying North/South dichotomy are enemies of Nigeria. Nobody will be honoured for being an irredentist.

    Nigeria has been battling some of the worst human creatures on earth. They are kidnappers. No amount of justification can alter the truth that kidnappers are the enemies of Nigeria. Their informants who supply them with vital information, those who sell them food and fuel and anyone who displays an iota of sympathy to these groups of renegades is also an enemy of Nigeria.

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    Those who are manipulating the problem for one ulterior motive or the other are parts of them.

    Given the multifaceted threats facing democracy in West Africa, it is imperative to embark on sustain campaign aimed at underscoring the advantages of the system over other confusions.  Nigeria cannot afford complacency. Nigeria today is encircled by autocratic states. These states are not only practicing autocracy but also are acting as agents of totalitarian super states such as Russia, Iran, North Korea, etc. These West African states that are desperately seeking external legitimacy can go to any length just to procure external succour even at the expense of their neighbours.

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as a leader with track record of fighting for democracy must not be hoodwinked by the recent remarks made by President Vladimir Putin of Russia that Russia had no hand in the political underdevelopment in the Sahel. As former chieftain of KGB, deception should be his second nature.

    President Tinubu should understand that fire and water cannot be in one bowl. There is no way milito-cracy and democracy can coexist except under a system called diarchy. The office of the NSA and NIA must be vigilant because Nigeria is surrounded by hostile juntas.  They must watch for spies, espionage activities, saboteurs and renegades.

    In our backyards are illegitimate rulers leading destabilized poor nations. We must watch.

    I have read it many times that in spite of the efforts by the successive governments to diversify Nigeria’s economy, crude oil still accounts for the huge chunk of the nation’s foreign exchange earnings. This means if you want to destabilize Nigeria, attack the oil and gas sector. Therefore, our leaders should appreciate this fact that oil thieves are as much enemies to the country as kidnappers and terrorists. There should be no compromise eliminating the scourge of oil theft for the survival of over 200 million Nigerians.

    Every bad news against Nigeria is costing the country huge inestimable revenue. No investor will go to a den of kidnappers and put his hard-earned money and put his life at risk.

    The world today is about branding. And nobody will sell the country better than Nigerians. Those who think they are being patriotic by exposing our negative sides need to be told point blank that their approach does more harm than good.

    • Comrade Bishir Dauda Sabuwar, Unguwa Katsina.

  • The Superiority of God’s Knowledge

    The Superiority of God’s Knowledge

    By Henry Adelegan

    Text:”….. the people that do know their God shall be strong, and do exploits”. Daniel 11:32b

    Knowledge of this world is antipodal to God’s knowledge; while worldly knowledge provides information, transformation is the exclusive right of the Word of God (John 1:3; Colossians 1:16-17 cf Gen. 1:3; Hebrews 4:12). This axiom was further advanced through Paul’s epistle to the Corinthians that “… the wisdom of this world is foolishness with God…” (1Cor. 3:19). This position by Paul was probably predicated on the intellectual discourse he had with the Stoicks and Epicureans philosophers in Athens, a town that was wholly given to superstitions and idolatry but left one altar for an unknown god (Acts. 17:16-31).

    The second category of people in the world, apart from those who don’t know God at all, are the ilks of the Stoicks and Epicureans philosophers of today – the people who think they know God – they are referred to as God’s people. This set of people come to church, bear names that confirm they are Christians, some have big Bibles, a number have positions in the church, have high educational titles, some can speak in tongues, a larger number go to mountain tops for prayers, have the contacts of notable people of God, they move from one “where it is happening spiritual assembly” to another, a lot don’t miss programmes at camps and they are regular faces at vigils. One of their notable traits is that they are rolling stones and regularly transited by their desires and emotions. They are very excited when things are good but get disillusioned, hopeless and doubt when things don’t go the way they wanted or prayed for. Despite all their religious personalities and activities, they have just an ephemeral knowledge of God- they are aware that God exists but are ignorant about what He can do and His ‘modus operandi’ (Isaiah 29:13).

    God, in Hosea 4:6, said that the consequence of “His people” not knowing Him fully and deeply, their lack of understanding of who He is (Isaiah 1:2-4), is that they will perish, meaning that such a person will continually be under the manipulation of powers of wickedness – a life of up today and down tomorrow. Further in Isaiah 5:13-15, God elucidated the consequences of peripheral knowledge of Him, that, they are moved into “into captivity….., their honourable men are famished…, their multitude dried up with thirst…. their pomp, and he that rejoiceth, shall descend into it… the mean man shall be brought down, and the mighty man shall be humbled, and the eyes of the lofty shall be humbled”.

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    Do you have ideas that are not bringing you the right dividends? Have you been living a life of endless hope of “it shall be better one day” and instead of ascending you are descending? Is your life being continually manipulated by powers of wickedness through bad dreams and fear? Are people that are not up to you intellectually or spiritually placed above you at work, in the family and place of commission? Do you have hordes of latent leadership potentials that are not cascading into meaningful responsibilities? Are you living uncontrollably under the yoke of drugs and bad habits? Are you struggling with life and living or you are traversing from one problem or sickness to another? Is your expenditure in excess of your income? Does it appear that the life you started well might end badly or the race you started in grace might end in disgrace? These are some of the symptoms of peripheral knowledge of God which Solomon referred to as an error from the ruler which alters the destiny of princes and makes them walk on the ground as against riding on horses (Ecclesiastes 10:5-7).

    Beloved, when you truly come to terms with who God is like Abraham, who heard His voice and left the certainty of the Ur of the Chaldees for a place he didn’t know (Genesis 11:28-12:4) or you have the faith of Shadrack, Mesach and Abednego who faced King Nebuchadnezzar and confessed that the God they served was able to deliver them from his hands and the fiery furnace (Daniel 3:16-19) or you can declare like Job, even in his lowest state, that “I know that my Redeemer liveth” (Job 19:25), you shall provoke His power to action and greater things shall manifest in your life. You shall be lifted up like the children of Isaachar, who were not lacking in God’s knowledge (1 Chronicles 12:32) and your testimonies shall shock the world.

    At this time of Lent, endeavor to increase your knowledge of God, surrender your life to Jesus Christ, read the word of God and meditate in it daily, allow His word to have a living expression in your life (Joshua 1:8), look above your present circumstances and focus on what His report says about you are. When you do this, He has promised in Daniel 11:32b that you shall be strong, healthy, fearless, winners, champions, unbeatable and operate above powers of darkness. You shall also be excluded from what is killing or bringing others down and where they have said there is no way, your case shall be special (Job 22:28). Besides that, you shall do exploits – be successful, comfortable, happy and be lifted far above your present level (Jeremiah 24:6-7). This shall be your testimony henceforth in the name of Jesus.

    Prayer: Lord, give me grace to transit from a Christian by mere words of mouth to a Christian living by your Word, in Jesus’ name.

  • The double edged sword

    The double edged sword

    By Mike Kebonkwu

    The romantic attraction and call for the establishment of state and community policing has become all the more strident and necessary in the face of terrifying insecurity across the geo-political zones of the country. There is still frightening wholesale commercial kidnapping for ransom. School children are carried away like herds of cattle in large numbers from their schools in broad daylight; people are abducted from their living rooms and business places.  Commercial vehicles are diverted into the bush and passengers carried away in captivity. 

    Nigeria is gradually becoming like Haiti where gang leaders and criminals call the shot. Now, there is a new dimension to the problem of insecurity and that is hunger and looming famine that is steering us in the face.  We are slipping into anarchy and people are stopping provisions laden trucks on the highway and looting the foodstuffs; warehouses are being broken into and people helping themselves with “palliatives”. 

    The other day, I read that Ukraine, a country in the midst of conventional war with one of the most powerful military powers, Russia for two years running, donated grains to our country. This should be a source of worry and concern to everybody. The government has not stopped looking for scapegoats, fingering saboteurs and political oppositions who are never arrested over specific allegations.  

    Private security companies are springing up in every nooks and crannies while insecurity is spiralling out of control and the country increasingly becoming unsafe to live in and do business. There is a total siege and the criminals are tormenting the entire nation. The Boko Haram insurgents levying war on the state, bandits, killer herdsmen, unknown gunmen, commercial kidnapping all have one thing in common, terrorizing citizens, creating panic and driving away investors. 

    These criminals bear military grade weapons and operate without fear of the presence of the state. How did they acquire the weapons? The sources of their weapons are from both internal and external; but time will not permit us to give details here.  The criminals in the northern part of the country enjoy the affiliate and franchise of the different Jihadist groups smuggling weapons across the Sahara desert after the fall of Libya, while their counterparts in the south acquire their weapons from some rogue elements in security forces and the police while others are smuggled through our porous borders or brought in containers imported into the country.

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    Nigeria has remained grossly under-policed and unsecured.  Everybody falls within the ring of the net of these criminals who have been emboldened by weak state institutions and fragile law enforcement and poor governance. 

    What is to be done? Fighting insecurity is not going to be achieved through advertorial and media propaganda and political statements and achievements not backed by verifiable statistics. Some people have argued that we need to operate a true federalism; others say we need restructuring, while many more believe state and community policing will fill the gap. Yet, some ‘extremists’ amongst us advocate the dissolution of the republic.  

    At the moment, many perceive state police as probable cure-all for insecurity.  Insecurity will not go away if the government does not take away military grade weapons from the hands of criminals across the country and dissolve or dismantle their structures.  Not very many of our uncritical lawmakers in the National Assembly would want to shoot down the State Police Bill because it appears to be by popular demand.  The “ayes” will have it!  It is an idea that is long overdue especially faced with the consuming and suffocating heat of insecurity. 

    State police is good in principle especially in a federation which we appear to also operate though in its caricature. Some states and regions already have structures for state police operating also in the shadow in one form or the other; we have the Amotekun in the Southwest, the Eastern Security Network (ESN) in the Southeast, the Hisbah Corps (Police) in some northern states and others operating as vigilante groups of different nomenclatures in one form or the other. 

    State police no doubt may turn out a good legislative piece, but may well also be a sword of Damocles given our predilection to abuse of power, institutions and authority.  The state police is indeed going to be a catch-22 situation.

    My heart  goes out for the state police  but one also has the fear  that it is laced with mines and booby traps because it may become the instrument of tyranny in the hands of power drunk governors who will turn it into a unit of private army to unleash mayhem on critics and opposition.  We are never short of establishing good institutions just as our problem is not about making of good laws.  What we lack are men with capacity and discipline to drive the institutions and enforce the laws. 

    If we decree a state police today, it is not going to change anything or bring security over night to the people if we do not change our mentality of appropriating state power for personal aggrandizement. 

    For the state police to be effective, it must not be left in the hands of intemperate and inebriated governors who have abused virtually every other institution under their watch; the police, the intelligence agencies, paramilitary and even the military. The hitherto conservative judiciary is not spared as justice is sometimes traded off to the highest bidder. Imagine an arm of the highest crème of legal practitioners conferring life membership on a former state governor now a minister whose public display of power and arrogance does not attract such nobility.

     There will soon arise conflict between the federal and state police on key issues of policing due to complex and power struggle in the midst of the corrupt environment that we operate. The training packages of state police when it finally comes on stream and indeed the police and the Civil Defence Corps must be properly fine-tuned to be civil in content and community friendly.  With the level of militarization of every security and policing outfit and paramilitary, we will soon throw the entire country into flame due to rivalry. 

    For state police to work, there must be adequate checks and balances put in place to regulate its operational use and deployment to avoid leaving it in the hands of individuals who perceive state institutions as part or extension of their estate whenever they are in power.  Some state governors behave like emperors and sole administrators in their domain and are laws unto themselves. They virtually handpick every other official in the state including their deputies who have very little constitutional roles.  Other state officials and functionaries are all pliable, docile and subservient individuals without opinion of their own taking instructions and orders from the governor like zombies.

    Nigerians have to rise up to defend the state and its institutions rather than sink with individuals with bloated ego. We have blamed so much the constitutions for our woes whether rightly or wrongly that it was given like a command diktat by the military even though it was crafted and drafted by renowned lawyers and technocrats. We have never blamed the operators who flagrantly trample on the law and constitution.  Countries operating similar constitution like our own have not collapsed.  What happens to chapter two of the same constitution which is on fundamental objectives and directive principle of state policy which we render non-justiciable with all its progressive provisions?  Former President Jacob Zuma of South Africa is having some terms in prison for the wrong things he did while in power. 

    By the way, I said South Africa so that you can understand that some African countries operate under the rule of law and not the whims and intuitions of a strong man; so whoever falls short of the law will be brought down from the Olympus height. The super brat, former President Donald Trump has just been convicted for fraud in a civil suit in the United States.  To us, our leaders are venerated deified gods and untouchables; in and out of office. 

    If a state governor can control the federal police in gross abuse of power, what will he not do with state police under his absolute control?  The poorly trained and equally poorly motivated personnel will no doubt become errand boys to a reckless chief executive of a state. This said, state police is a welcome development and an imperative in the present circumstances. There must be strong legislation for its control, funding and operational deployment which must not be left absolutely in the hands of the chief executives. There should be sanctions for any abuse of power and the issue of immunity clause should be completely removed from the constitution and those who commit offences should be tried irrespective of whatever office they occupy. The agencies of government bearing arms are growing by the day in the name of security. This is also fraught with danger and we see daily the abuses that this occasion.  We have virtually militarized the entire polity without any common sense just for political expediency.  On the state and community policing, we must tread carefully so that we do not create another monster that will plunge the nation in deeper crises.

    • Kebonkwu Esq is an Abuja based attorney.

  • Return of Sheik Gumi

    Return of Sheik Gumi

    Controversial Muslim cleric, Sheik Ahmad Gumi, returned to national radar last week with a proposal to negotiate with bandits who recently abducted some 287 schoolchildren from Kuriga in Chikun council area of Kaduna State. He offered to facilitate the release of the kidnapped pupils should President Bola Tinubu give him the nod, and warned it would be a mortal mistake on the part of government to spurn the option of negotiation with the criminals.

    Gun-wielding bandits had penultimate Thursday stormed Kuriga Government Secondary and LEA Primary schools in the morning hours, shooting in the air and herding off more than 300 pupils and teachers into the forest unchallenged by security forces. About 25 of the abductees subsequently escaped the terrorists’ hold and returned home, but the others remained in captivity as at late last week. The Kuriga incident happened barely 24 hours after insurgents kidnapped some 200 internally displaced persons (IDPs), mostly women and youths in Ngala, headquarters of Gambarou Ngala council area of Borno State. The IDPs were abducted reportedly while they were out gathering firewood in the bush.

    The Kuriga mass abduction climaxed a siege of terror on the community and adjoining areas over recent years. Reports said at the time the bandits struck penultimate Thursday, the community was yet healing from the killing of Idris Sufyan, the principal of the secondary school, by terrorists who shot him in his home in January and abducted his wife along with their baby. These two were rescued early in February in a joint military operation. It was reportedly terrorists’ activity that warranted the relocation of the secondary school some three years ago from its remote site to cohabit a premises with the primary school situated at the heart of the town. Besides, it was only recently that bandits attacked Gonin-Gora community in the same Chikun council area, prompting residents to stage a protest over abductions of people in the area during which they blocked the Kaduna-Abuja Expressway.

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    The Kaduna State Government – since the days of former Governor Nasir el-Rufai until now under Governor Uba Sani – has insisted on not negotiating release of abducted persons with bandits or paying ransom. Both governors often espoused the view that the sure way out of the siege of banditry is to defeat the bandits militarily (el-Rufai wanted them carpet-bombed in their forest hideouts). Sheik Gumi, on the other hand, is an unabashed bandit-sympathiser and advocate of dialogue with the outlaws. From hibernation, he rode back early last week in the trails of the Kuriga incident to deplore government’s aversion for negotiating with bandits and counsel urgent dialogue with the criminals – not pertaining to only the Kuriga abductees but on all pending cases. He said in a statement that he was ready to “lead a holistic dialogue between the government and bandits,” which he described as his religious duty towards promoting peace. The cleric urged the current administration of President Tinubu to follow a different path from its predecessor – the Muhammadu Buhari administration – which he disapprovingly noted refused to negotiate with bandits. He contradicted himself, though, by recommending a model that obtained under the same Buhari administration: “Government should use the same approach it used in releasing passengers that were abducted on the Abuja–Kaduna train in 2022 to release the Kuriga school children and others,” he said. It was no matter to him that the train hostage negotiations facilitated by his aide, Tukur Mamu, although resulted in phased release of the hostages upon ransom payment also climaxed in arrest and prosecution of Mamu by security agents for alleged terrorist financing.

    Gumi’s latest advocacy aligned with the line he had always plied on how to tackle the challenge of terrorism and banditry that has hobbled this country for many years. In February 2021, he portrayed bandits as victimised and labelled journalists as criminals for describing the activities of bandits as criminality. Speaking on a television programme, he said the media was fuelling insecurity in Nigeria with words being used on bandits; and that for bandits to surrender, they should not be castigated or referred to as criminals but rather that nice words be used in reporting them. “You are emphasising on criminality, even the press (journalists) are criminals too because they are putting oil into fire. These people are listening to you, you should not address them as criminals if you want them to succumb,” he said. Late in the same year when a federal high court in Abuja formally outlawed the activities of armed bandit groups as “acts of terrorism and illegality,” just so they could be frontally taken on by the military, Gumi flew off the handle to describe the verdict as counter-productive and of no consequence. “The declaration will not change anything, it will not change the dynamics. Already the military is engaging them, it didn’t stop them from kidnappings and killings. The declaration will not end their aggression against the society,” he said in a statement.  And when questioned on another platform as to why his approach of soft-pawing bandits had not dissuaded them from the act, Gumi said lack of enthusiasm by government was frustrating his efforts. “We are always trying to do our best, but you see, you need two hands to shake. You know these people (bandits) need engagements from the government itself. If you dialogue with them without the involvement of the government, it is a problem,” he explained.

    The cleric is a famous bandit-negotiator and apologist, and he is reputed to have vast contacts among them, but his past engagements have failed to effect any change of heart in the criminals. Why he thinks fresh attempts would produce a different outcome can only be explained by his passion to molly-coddle the outlaws – and that, against better judgment that they be dealt a heavy hand. The Northwest and Northeast zones are challenged by activities of bandits and insurgents who at intervals stage mass kidnappings, and governors of states in the zones have often called for military action to deal with the menace. Barely a week into the saddle as Kaduna governor last year, Uba Sani accused some former Northwest governors of having frustrated security efforts by cutting out of a unified front forged by the states and choosing to fraternise with bandits. He added that there was, however, new thinking in the zone as the current governors had agreed to adopt a common approach and “move away from the mistakes made by some previous governors who decided to compromise the operation in the past when they started giving money to the bandits and negotiating with them.” Gumi, by his latest campaign, seeks return to the Golgotha of negotiation and ransom payment. That is no way to go and the cleric should just keep to his space!

    But Gumi aside, there are lapses in a security arrangement that allows bandits to corral massive herds of abductees into hideaways without being intercepted. In the Borno case where it was reported that about 200 IDPs – some groups argued the number was indeed higher – were kidnapped, it is curious that such a large number left camp at the same time and in the same direction in search of firewood without security cover, despite the notoriety of that area for insurgent activity. IDP camps, as places of refuge for persons displaced by terror from their homes, ideally should be under close administrative and security watch. But that such oversight was lacking showed through in the fact that there was no immediate security response to the Ngala abductions, with the hostages yet to be rescued as at last weekend.

    The Kuriga incident left even much more to be desired. Eyewitness accounts said the bandits came in broad daylight in massive number, with some kitted in military gear and on motorbikes, and they herded off massive numbers of abductees without being intercepted by security forces. It could only be due to failure of security intelligence that such operation was not picked up before, during or immediately after, while the bandits were leaving the scene of attack. Kuriga is apparently an ungoverned space. Though it borders the terror-ravaged Birnin-Gwari highway, there is no military formation close by, while a police post that could have somewhat intimidated bandits was reportedly relocated some years back to another community about 20 kilometres away. Ungoverned spaces provide room for terrorists to freely operate, and those operations rub off negatively on the image of the entire country. The Tinubu administration must do everything to adequately police all spaces within the country’s territory, and rescue all the abductees.

    • Please join me on kayodeidowu.blogspot.be for conversation.

  • Putin won’t stop until he is finally defeated

    Putin won’t stop until he is finally defeated

    • By Peter Dickinson

    There was no escaping the mounting sense of gloom in late February as the world marked the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale Ukraine invasion.

    While a chorus of international leaders voiced their determination to continue standing with Ukraine, it is now evident that Russia holds the upper hand as the conflict evolves into a grinding war of attrition. Indeed, with the future of US military aid in doubt, the mood among Ukraine’s partners is visibly darkening as thoughts turn to the disastrous consequences of a potential Russian victory.

    In recent weeks, more and more Western leaders have begun publicly warning that their countries may soon become targets of Russian aggression. The latest leader to sound the alarm was French President Emmanuel Macron, who stated on Feb. 26 that Russia could attack NATO member states “in the next few years.” Macron also sparked a heated debate by refusing to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine.

    Not everyone believes a victorious Putin would inevitably go further. Many remain skeptical and claim the Russian dictator is only interested in Ukraine. Others point to the Russian army’s well-documented difficulties during the current invasion as evidence that any Russian attack on the NATO alliance would amount to military suicide. These arguments reflect a fundamental failure among many in the West to grasp the true motives behind Russia’s invasion and the nature of the threat posed by Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions.

    This statement follows French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent refusal to dismiss the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, which has caused divisions among U.S. and European leaders.

    When Putin first launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he initially sought to portray it as a defensive measure against “Ukrainian Nazis” and NATO expansion. However, as the conflict has unfolded, it has become increasingly apparent that the Kremlin is waging an old-fashioned colonial war of imperial expansion.

    In summer 2022, Putin directly compared his invasion to the eighteenth-century imperial conquests of Russian Czar Peter the Great. Months later, he proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces while declaring them to be “historically Russian lands.” He has since asserted that “no Ukraine ever existed in the history of mankind,” and has issued orders for all traces of Ukrainian national identity to be eradicated from areas of Ukraine under Kremlin control.

    Putin’s historical motivations were perhaps most immediately obvious during his recent interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson. While Carlson openly encouraged Putin to blame NATO and the US for the invasion, the Russian ruler preferred to embark on a half-hour history lecture that placed the origins of the current war firmly in the distant past. Rather than seeking to justify his invasion in terms of contemporary geopolitics, Putin chose to argue that Ukraine was historically Russian and therefore a legitimate target.

    Putin’s chilling dream of reclaiming “historically Russian lands” puts a large number of countries at risk of suffering the same fate as Ukraine. The Kremlin strongman is notorious for lamenting the collapse of the Soviet Union, but his revisionist ambitions actually extend beyond the boundaries of the former USSR. On numerous occasions, Putin has expressed his belief that the Soviet Union was in fact a continuation of the Russian Empire, while the fall of the USSR was “the disintegration of historical Russia.” “What had been built up over 1,000 years was largely lost,” he commented in December 2021.

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    Based on this twisted logic, the historical arguments used by Putin to justify the invasion of Ukraine could be equally applied to any country that was once part of the Russian Empire. This would result in a list of potential targets including Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Poland, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the whole of Central Asia, not to mention Alaska. Anyone tempted to dismiss the idea of Russia invading these countries should consider that just ten years ago, most Ukrainians were equally sure such things were impossible in the twenty-first century.

    Nor is Putin solely motivated by his deep-seated desire to reverse Russia’s imperial decline. He also sees the invasion of Ukraine as a fight to end the era of Western dominance and establish a new multi-polar world order. After decades spent bristling at Russia’s reduced status and the perceived humiliations of the post-Soviet period, he is now attempting to frame the war in Ukraine as a battle against Pax Americana to shape the future of international relations. Putin believes victory over Ukraine would represent a decisive breakthrough that would undermine the entire post-1991 world order and reverse the verdict of the Cold War.

    Doubters argue that the Russian army is currently in no shape to undertake any further invasions, never mind confronting the military might of NATO itself. This reasoning is superficially persuasive. After all, Putin’s army has seen its reputation as the world’s number two military take a severe battering in Ukraine. Russian commanders have lost a series of key battles and have suffered catastrophic losses in both men and equipment that have left them increasingly dependent on the brute force of primitive human wave tactics.

    Despite these setbacks, it would be foolish to underestimate Russia’s military potential. In the past two years, Putin has placed the entire Russian economy on a war footing. Armament factories are now working around the clock and are already comfortably outproducing the entire NATO alliance in terms of artillery shells and other key armaments. Russia may have lost hundreds of thousands killed and wounded in Ukraine, but the Kremlin still has vast untapped reserves of fighting-age men who can be mobilized in time for the next big invasion.

    Skeptics also tend to overlook the likely impact of victory in Ukraine on Russia’s military capabilities. In practical terms, the conquest of Ukraine would secure hundreds of thousands of additional conscript troops and a vast array of new weapons for the Russian army. Control over Ukraine would significantly enhance the Kremlin war machine by offering renewed access to a range of major Ukrainian enterprises that previously played key roles in the Soviet military-industrial complex. It would make Russia the dominant force on global agricultural markets, handing Moscow enormous leverage that could be used to bribe allies and deter opponents.

    Crucially, success in Ukraine would provide Putin with enormous additional momentum while simultaneously destabilizing and demoralizing the whole democratic world. Inside Russia, pro-war sentiment would be further strengthened and Putin’s messianic vision of a new Russian Empire would be vindicated. Internationally, Russia’s existing allies would feel free to increase their support, while the countries of the nonaligned Global South would rush to strengthen ties with the triumphant Kremlin. In such a favorable geopolitical climate, Putin would doubtless find it difficult to resist the temptation to escalate his confrontation with the West. Indeed, he would almost certainly see it as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to achieve his historic mission.

    This does not mean we should expect to see Russian tanks on the streets of NATO capitals any time soon. Putin knows he can reach his goals by discrediting NATO rather than actually defeating the alliance on the battlefield. With this in mind, the Kremlin would be far more likely to opt for the kind of hybrid tactics employed during the early stages of the Ukraine invasion in 2014. Indeed, it is all too easy to imagine unidentified Russian troops operating inside NATO territory behind a veil of barely plausible deniability.

    An escalation of hybrid warfare against the NATO alliance would enable Moscow to exploit the lack of resolve and fear of escalation demonstrated by Western leaders over the past two years in Ukraine. Would the current generation of US, German, or French leaders be prepared to involve their countries in a war with Russia over an ambiguous “pro-Russian” uprising in an Estonian border town? If not, the absence of a decisive response could fatally undermine NATO’s core commitment to collective defense. The alliance might formally survive such a blow, but the loss of credibility would be catastrophic. It would not be long before individual NATO member countries started forming separate security arrangements of their own and began offering concessions to the Kremlin.

    Even if Putin chooses not to test NATO directly, a Russian victory in Ukraine would transform the international security environment and dramatically increase the risk of a truly global war. European countries would be forced to rapidly rearm, with defense budgets soon ballooning to levels that far surpass the current costs of supporting the Ukrainian war effort. Those who begrudge today’s spending on Ukraine would find themselves confronted with security expenditures five or ten times higher.

    Putin himself has provided ample evidence that his goals extend far beyond the reconquest of Ukraine. He makes no secret of his commitment to reclaiming what he regards as historically Russian lands, and believes he is fully justified in using military force to do so. Putin’s revisionist agenda is inextricably linked to his other great passion, namely the revival of Russia’s great power status as part of a post-Western world dominated by a handful of regional behemoths. These imperial ambitions led directly to the invasion of Ukraine and make further escalations virtually inevitable unless Russia is defeated.

    Ultimately, it is impossible to predict exactly what Putin will do if he wins in Ukraine. He may initially choose to pursue low-hanging geopolitical fruit by seizing small neighborhood countries like Moldova or Georgia. Alternatively, he might seek to press home his advantage against a weakened West by embarking on far bolder military gambits targeting the Baltic states or the Suwałki Gap. Of the many possible post-Ukraine scenarios for Russia, the least likely of all is the idea that an emboldened and victorious Putin would simply stop.

    ·               This article was first published in www.kyivpost.com with the title ‘Putin is on an historic mission and will not stop until he is finally defeated’

  • Bail-out strategy through state-owned dead capital

    Bail-out strategy through state-owned dead capital

    • By Abiodun Owonikoko

    I was compelled to write this piece, and set about it, in the third week of February. That was after the Aboki fruit seller at the road junction to my office in the suburb of Lekki unapologetically refused to allow me to price down one unit of red apple. My Aboki friend had offered to sell one at N500, but, just back in December 2023, he sold me four pieces of the same quality for N800. Was I jolted! 

    I, however, held back closing this paper until today to benefit from listening to Prof Kingsley Moghalu OON’s, keynote speech at the Leadership Conference and Awards at Congress Hall, Transcorp Abuja on the topic “An Economy in Distress; Which Way Forward.”

    My unorthodox thoughts after listening to the erudite lawyer-cum-development economics professor became even more. He is the author of the seminal book: “Emerging Africa; How the Global Economy’s Last Frontier Can Prosper and Matter”. Since I first encountered him in his days as Central Bank Deputy Governor about a decade ago, he has never ceased intriguing me with the clarity of his original hypothesis on overcoming Afrocentric economic development challenges. 

    Being a roadside economic animal, and using Prof Moghalu as a sounding board, here is my perspective. Nigeria is only an aspirational private sector-led economy. The fundamentals that should underpin its superstructure are fragile.

    The structural defect is arguably reversible. But that may only result from an intentional, sacrificial, audacious, strategic and visionary investment of appropriate resources in human, intellectual and engineered processes of change, across critical sectors to achieve competitive and sustainable growth. By nearly all economic parameters, Nigeria is now an under-developing economy – our year-on-year and decade-on-decade regressing GDP statistics alone say it all.

    Over the last year, Nigeria’s money supply ballooned to an all-time high of N93. 72 trillion as of January 2024, which amounts to a 76 per cent surge from the N53.14 trillion recorded in January 2023. We prodigally created more money without producing a matching quantity of goods and services to buy them with.

    Having neither worked harder or smatter nor produced more than we previously did, there is no prize for guessing why the bubble liquidity is chasing after less than the previous year’s GDP’.

    These alarming statistics must be recognised as a doomsday warning. It must task the economic managers (on the fiscal and monetary sides) to swiftly course re-direct towards repositioning and gaining re-admission of the country into the family of developing countries in the medium term.

    The resultant effect of this misalignment of means and ends manifests in a distorted socio-economic system which hardly responds to orthodox neoliberal Western-style management tools. The challenge has never been more starkly presented than what the country is currently experiencing – the twin fiscal and monetary policy decisions of fuel subsidy withdrawal and dollar market fusion for pricing parity across the financial market.

    This is consistent with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s campaign promises and manifesto encapsulated in the Renewed Hope Agenda (RHA). That audacious move required to be prosecuted by thinking outside the box to “fetch water from a dry well”.

    Bt as Prof Moghalu wrote in his referenced Book, “Many development indicators are published and tracked, but as informative as they are, it is paramount for success that the portfolio of measures used to track the performance of the strategy are those that matter for understanding progress toward the nation’s strategic destination.”

    The unintended but easily predictable consequences of not following through with the required rigorous articulation and heavy-lifting value creation, that should accompany the twin policy choices are Galloping Inflation, Forex Volatility and vulnerability, unmanageable sovereign debt, unprecedented descent into multidimensional poverty by a majority of the population; and now, lately – a jarring food insecurity and threat to peace and security posed by non-state actors. 

    The time has come for a decisive, all-hands-on-deck, strategic plan of action to be proactively iterated and articulated. That is a move that compels unconventional urgency with the intent to onboard and implement well-defined deliverables by all stakeholders. I am regrettably afraid, that we are, instead, staring at a recipe for an atrophied economy and a state tending to ultimate collapse.

    With dwindling foreign reserves largely resulting from progressively contracting revenue from the nations’ mainstay – crude oil, Nigeria is unravelling as less self-sustaining, less productive, less confident of its steps and less predictable for long-term business plans. It is struggling, so badly, to create new opportunities for increased prosperity on a scale necessary to keep more of our people out of poverty (rather than taking them out of that territory). This is despite our geometrically expanding population.

    The urgency of the dire situation commends the exploitation of immediate low-hanging homegrown opportunities; those that we have the capacity and competence to explore and swiftly activate. It will be akin to President Roosevelt’s New Deal of the 1930s which rescued the USA from its worst economic depression in history and led to its emergence as the world’s enduring economic superpower. That Deal can be contrasted with the Marshall Plan contrived as an economic reconstruction aid package for post-World war II Western Europe.

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    So, as an emergency national agenda for economic self-reliance, my vote will be for the Roosevelt Way (aimed at rekindling our self-belief) rather than an aid-dependent Marshall Plan as the preferred lead option. External support by way of foreign investment attraction should only be a sweetener for a country that is sinfully underutilising its enormous indigenous potential. The mantra should be to banish our loss of self-belief and empower Nigeria to confront our fears with daring courage; so that, as that wheelchair-bound President Roosevelt said to his fellow Americans in their lowest moment of economic depression, the only thing to fear … is fear is itself.

    Regeneration proposal

    It is contended that for immediate hope-re-envisioning and impactful outcomes, the route to go is NOT by experimenting with fanciful palliatives and tokenistic programs or initiatives. The challenge calls for a rollout of audacious, visionary, focused and engineered strategic PROJECT OF FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC REBIRTH away from crude oil revenue dependency. This is what informs the proposed PROJECT 3-in-3 RHA. It identifies and nominates three strategic economic sub-sectors for game-changing reinvention in three years. The project will be scoped and kicked off for implementation in a matter of three months with the full participation of a broad spectrum of the populace. All those whose inputs as critical stakeholders outside of government are vital to elicit their unflinching buy-in and involvement must be brought on board.

    The project is to achieve predetermined deliverables around a unique publicly promoted ( but not state-funded) massive investment in the development of Railway lines (linking all state capitals), Housing ( to be a mix of quality commercial and social mortgage-ready stock, to incrementally reduce housing deficits) and Agriculture ( encompassing the allied cottage industries and value chain) for recalibration and diversification of the Nigerian economic landscape.

    It is to be delivered in the first phase over three years – starting from 2024 – effectively from the date when the Implementation Coordination Team (ICT) (which must be corporate governance complaint) submits the framework that targets the creation of at least 5 million (direct and indirect) new full-time, living wage jobs as a catalyst for reviving our fast vanishing middle class and create two new thriving economic sectors as providers of revenue sources for reinvesting in massive associated infrastructure assets and spin-off businesses in the second phase replicating the proven template.

    This project will draw principally from our most underutilised but abundant domestic endowments and capacities (with land as the pivot). The project 3-in-3RHA is to be deployed to reposition the national economic base from consumption and overdependence on offshoring and foreign support; and to lessen pressure on external reserves which may then be reprioritised for use in funding the acquisition of complex high-tech machinery, know-how; with preference to those genuinely unavailable economic input services that the country lacks competitive, practical or suitable alternative domestic substitutes for.

    The broad framework will involve the following actionable tasks:

    * Constitution of Project 3-in-3 RHA Implementation Coordinating Team (ICT) with the mandate to generate and submit “Project Scope Statement of Work” within 3 months. The team must subscribe to adherence to transparent corporate governance rules and be insulated from bureaucratic public service constraints.

    * The “Project Scope Statement of Work” must shift attention to subnational as engines of economic revitalisation by providing competitive, peer-to-peer capacities for states to deepen their productive economic potentials thus becoming less dependent on federally allocated revenue and appropriations to more effectively meet their governance mandates as suits a properly structured federating states.

    The target candidate productive sectors (Rail, Housing and Agriculture) are identified as derivatives of land surface resources (not import or forex dependent). Happily, the country has fallow land in abundance. It is still largely socialised under the Land Use Act, such that it can be conveniently aggregated, mapped for use and dedicated to the project with minimal complications and constraints.

    * The three project sectors are outside of exclusive federal control and mandate. This makes for flexible empowerment and diversified intervention by sub-national governments and private sectors under federal overarching coordination as the prime fiscal and monetary policy enabler.  

    * States and local governments as anchor implementers are to leverage their control of land assets as dead capital for conversion into credit for creating a cost-effective financing scheme to fund the Project 3-in-3 RHA. The aim is to convert their dead capital into financial resources for investment in productive, 

    high-impact, fast-trackable sectors of the economy. My simplified descriptive term for dead capital, first coined by the Peruvian Economist, Hernando de Soto Polar is Idle Asset. In the hands of the rich, it must be appropriately taxed; and in other respects it must be mobilised and invested for optimal return.

    * The tripodal economic course re-direction project must be productivity-focused, value- and merit-driven; insulated from legacy cultural constraints of prebendal political patronage syndrome and with preeminent participation of the street-level private sector players and segmentation to accommodate different levels of business models and sophistication for micro-small and medium enterprises. For this reason, the Project must leave out big players who can crowd out the targeted sectors that need the empowerment and grooming. It should embrace an all-inclusive, and party-neutral paradigm.   

    * Affordable credit guarantees on the back of predictable and credible data-driven inventories and receivables for off-takers of the commercial outputs and services from the projects by leveraging on a robust application of Secured Transaction In Movable Assets Act, of 2017, boosting consumer credit and enhanced financial inclusion to restore peoples inflation-eroded purchasing power and support domestic demands for the sectors’ outputs.

    * The Federal Government will have to commit to commission a broad implementation framework, templates and targets to be adapted by each sub-national to suit their local circumstances; and also provide seed credit guarantee through securitisation of inventories and receivables from Project 3-in-3 RHA to raise sovereign bonds in the capital market at market rated (but government subsided single digit) medium tenor interest rates to the tune of TWENTY TRILLION NAIRA (N20,000,000,000,000.00) for disbursement in predetermined tranches through commercial banks to support sectoral milestones over the project timeline.

    *The interest subsidies on the bond will cease after the initial five years by which time they will be priced and traded on competitive capital market rates without government underwriting. It is intended to be a creative avenue for mopping excess liquidity driving extant galloping inflation in the economy and to reinvest those idle funds in the ring-fenced productive sectors targeted under the project with the attendant multiplier effects in the subnational space. The expected short-term outcome is that the project will turn the entire 774 local government areas in the 36 states of the country into satellites of productive and quality work sites thus boosting their economies simultaneously.

    In the medium term, it should serve to reverse the uneconomic internal migration of unemployed, unskilled and unemployable demographics at state capitals and urban centres in search of perceived opportunities that do not exist. These are the marginalised, hapless citizens feeding crimes and creating an antisocial army of recruits posing security threats across the country.   

    * The Federal Government will at the same time facilitate a credible audit of accessible domestic and open-source technical research resources immediately usable to drive the project in collaboration with states across relevant research sources and institutions in the respective states.  

    * There is a need to produce and issue a presidential executive order for mandatory collaboration and patronage of indigenous academic and research bodies imbued with resources and relevant consultancy expertise in close proximity to operational bases of eligible entities. This should be incentivised by its stipulation as a prequalification requirement to access or draw on Federal Government supported credits, grants, subsidies or procurements related to the respective areas of focus under the Project.

    The added benefit is to facilitate the creation of a functional and structured interface between town and gown in the candidate sectors as model templates for eventual adoption generally in other segments of the economy. It is anticipated that this strategic innovation will lead to a better appreciation of the scientific imperative of a workable plan for national development as the economy expands in sophistication and depth in line with the goal of the Project. It is unimaginable that any well-conceived plan to revive the country premised on indigenous effort and self reliance will not assign a crucial role for our centres of knowledge and research to play as development partners and facilitators. 

    * Deliberate effort must be made to reverse the Brain-Drain conundrum’ and retain, in-country, our best and brightest for the new phase of socio-economic revitalisation. As at 2023, Nigeria had 170 universities comprising federal-, state-, and privately owned in a ratio of 43, 48 and 79, respectively. Similarly, there are over 160 accredited polytechnics; they are spread all over the country producing technical and vocational professionals with adaptable skills and competencies in the three candidate sectors of the Project 3-in3 RHA. A considerable proportion of the products of these institutions are presently engaged in flexible online jobs as trollers, content creators, skit makers, bloggers, and data miners, or awaiting their emigration papers to “japa” with their underutilised skills and youthful creative minds. 

    The project thesis

    What Project 3-in-3 RHA proposal seeks to deliver is to extract latent value in the states-owned dead capital (Land vested in states as trustees under the Land Use Act), and use it by way of adaptation of the financial engineering technique in the oil and gas industry to fund and bail out Nigeria from its desperate existential economic crisis that entered steroids territory in 2023. 

    The Project is conceived to deploy a subnational idle and under-utilised asset – LAND- as a substitute for proven reserves applied in the oil and gas industry for Reserve-Based Lending (RBL) as an extra-budgetary financing mechanism to raise economic revitalisation investment capital. The model will finance Project 3-in3 RHA by mimicking the financing technique that oil exploration and production businesses deploy for huge project funding. The designated land as a readily available collateral asset is to be aggregated and committed in place of RBL as a “borrowing-base” type of loan, sized on the basis of the projected Net Present Value (NPV) of cash flows to be generated by the underlying assets and investments under the Project 3-in-3 RHA business plan.  

    By this strategy, the Land Use Act provides a diamond in the raw which can be converted into a unique asset class available to states for productive investment as against the constraining role it has played for so long in stultifying efficient exploitation of land for real estate value amplification since its promulgation in 1978.

    It is comparable to the hidden value recently unlocked by the NNPC Limited in structuring and collateralising its forward sale to secure lending from Afreximbank in the region of $3.5billion for advance dividend payment to the Federal Government. In the present proposal, fairly long-term funding is to be originated, structured to be repaid from domestic economy that is not dollar-denominated. It will nevertheless be priced attractively enough to whet the appetite of even Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI), as a repository for repatriated/laundered funds, as well as add to investment baskets of diaspora remittances.

    While RBL financing exploits extractive resources vested exclusively in the Federal Government under the constitution (mineral oil); the target asset in this Project is surface right over land vested exclusively in the sub-nationals – the 36 federating states that are performing sub-optimally relative to their true potential as economic enablers. With the exception of Lagos State, being the 5th largest economy in the continent, most of the states are cost centres feeding off federal grants sustained through burgeoning and unsustainable ways and means- while their humongous internal potentials for wealth creation are left unharnessed.

    Proof of concept

    The audacious Eko Atlantic City in Victoria Island and the Dangote Refinery Complex Corridor at Ibeju Lekki, both erected on expensively reclaimed land from the sea in collaboration with the host state government as their landlord are examples of how viable the land-asset-backed Project may prove to be against the backdrop of land that is ready and available for use from get-go across the 36 states of the federation.

    The replication of such bold, ingenuous, rigorous and gusty creative thinking that birthed those signature multi-billion dollar projects in Lagos, is what the present circumstances of Nigeria nation need at this desperate time. But it must now be one that has diversified sectoral application designed to positively impact the fortunes of the entire federation, in order that the country may escape a looming economic collapse.

    Expected outcome

    Igniting the subnational economic potentials by optimizing their dead capital to reflate and recalibrate their economies productively while taming cost-push, and forex speculation-driven inflation. In addition, it is to provide a robust foundation for a new economic base.

    Project 3-in-3 RHA promises validation and seamless translation of the Renewed Hope Agenda for real value creation vide state-backed strategic investment in Railways, Housing and Agriculture over the next three years. It will constitute the nucleus of a new productive economy. It is from its base that other critical economic sectors now struggling or moribund are to be jump-started and resume flourishing for the ultimate restoration of the country on the path of sustainable prosperity. 

    Proscript

    The second part of this thesis will address options for de-dollarising the Nigerian economy with a view to optimally benefiting from the wider and fairer international trade currency regimes free apron strings of the dollar for settlement of cross-border and multilateral financial obligations. The ultimate goal is to create a respected Nigerian convertible currency tied to a basket of foreign convertible currencies most connected to the Nigerian balance of trade objectives.

    •Owonikoko, SAN, FCArb, can be reached at synergylaw2@yahoo.com