Category: Opinion

  • Akinlawon Ladipo Mabogunje: Thoughts and legacies on fixing Nigeria

    Akinlawon Ladipo Mabogunje: Thoughts and legacies on fixing Nigeria

    The breath of the contributions of the late Professor Akinlawon Ladipo Mabogunje to development policy and governance reform is so breathtaking that one cannot ever think of exhausting its deep nuances. From the personal to the public, Prof. Mabogunje embodied every element of a fulfilled life lived not only for self but also for others and for Nigeria; a country he loved with the very essence of his public service, as nothing less than a spiritual calling. He was a quintessential patriot like no other. And that became a quality that also translated into a mentoring passion. From my first meeting with Mabogunje till he became the chairman of the governing board of the Ibadan School of Government and Public Policy (ISGPP), I had learnt a lot about governance, public policy and policy-engaged research from him in ways that impacted my advocacy for institutional and governance research cum reform. Professor Mabogunje was inflamed with the passion of getting Nigeria to work. And he struggled with the apparent dysfunction of a state that spurned all forms of reform efforts from her committed patriots. In this piece, I want to add to the growing list of eulogies trailing Mabogunje’s demise by outlining his major legacies that essentially bother on how Nigeria can become functional in governance and development terms.

    Mabogunje came to prominence from an unlikely disciplinary perspective—geography. The story of how he came about geography as a disciplinary focus is narrated in his autobiography A Measure of Grace (2011). To cut the long story short, is to say that at a time when the intellectual ferment in the field, as early as the 1960s, was at the point of a global disciplinary revolution focusing geography on the cusp of quantitative and theoretical revolution, being thrown providentially right into the orbit of this revolution made Mabogunje “the African focal point of the revolution” in geography. His entrenchment in historical geography at the university came to shape Mabogunje’s focus on development and policy formulation, with a depth and breath that affected the way problems in these fields are conceptualized for the benefit of the state. In his words, “it was the luck of the first that made it possible for me to begin to impact on development policies and programmes within Nigeria.” Of course, there was the luck of the first; but it was a determined focus that kept Mabogunje locked to unraveling Nigeria’s development challenges. He would then ride on being first to become the first African president of the International Geographical Union, first African to be elected as a Foreign Associate of the US Academy of Science, first and only African to have won the prestigious Vautrin-Lud Prize, the highest honour in the field of geography, to name just a few.

    No scholar and development planner concerned with Nigeria’s development would not eventually be forced to confront land reform. As a factor of production, land plays a critical role in development policies. And that is where the Land Use Act of 1978 came into Mabogunje’s focus. As a policy of its time, the Act became necessary to highlight government’s statist ideology of assuming the “commanding height” of the national economy in development planning. Under the force of Keynesian macroeconomics of the time, it seemed normal to see the government and governors as the custodians of the land in their state; hence the Land Use Act. However, this Act hampered a lot that could motivate economic development, like mortgage financing that allows individual transactions. In terms of capitalist wealth creation dynamics, the Act requires urgent revision that allows for individuals and communities to achieve land holding without having to go through the bureaucratic hurdles demanded by the Act. Mabogunje’s recommendation is simple: make Nigeria’s land assets a significant part of the economic aggregates that define her wealth and development. This makes it imperative to achieve a coordinated surveying and regularizing of the lands to make for ease of landholding and doing business. We are still far from this policy commonsense.

    Mabogunje gave the same short-shrift critique of the Local Government Reform of 1976. This reform got it wrong from the beginning because, for Mabogunje, it conflated “economic with administrative efficiency.” This translates to thinking that the population and size of a local government area determine its efficient returns. By focusing on population, the 1976 Reform ignores the agential capacity of these settlements to effectively mobilize and deploy their social capital and subsidiarity values for internal development. Furthermore, the uncritical rate at which local government areas were proliferating implied that they would not be able to access the same level of funding from the Federation Account that depends on unequal access even for states. The lopsidedness of Nigeria’s federation makes it inevitable that the local government reform would not achieve what it ought to in terms of making the local government the real third tier of governance; the grassroots where development ought to take hold and take place for the citizens. Mabogunje held on tightly to the federal idea of making the LGAs a consolidated point for development. He insisted that while a truly local government must be managed and administered by representatives of resident population, it should be mandatory that in response to the democratic imperative, every LGA must report its activities and budgets to a town hall assembly of stakeholders, including the ward or neighborhood heads or leaders of various local economic organizations and trade associations, religious and traditional leaders, leaders of women organizations, NGOs, etc. This is the basis for administrative efficiency and democratic accountability: ensuring that the local government authority see to the development imperative represented by each settlement and town under it. This is the very essence of the OPTICOM initiative championed by Mabogunje and Aboyade at Aawe in Oyo State. This initiative deploys the idea of civic engagement and social reciprocity to facilitate organization, technological innovations, credit institution and market access towards rural development.

    Read Also: Akinlawon Ladipo Mabogunje: Man, Mentor, Monument

    A detailed focus on land reform and rural development seems to lead inevitably to a deep reflection on poverty and the policy dynamics that would facilitate its amelioration. Mabogunje’s patriotic concern for development drew him down all the way to the policy implications of his research. What links rural development and poverty reduction for Mabogunje is the idea of popular participation that is critical to democratic governance. The Ijebu Development Initiative on Poverty Reduction (IDIPR), championed by Oba Sikiru Adetona, provided Mabogunje with the context to relate popular participation to rural and infrastructural development and poverty alleviation. The IDIPR demonstrated the need for a multipronged stakeholder participation that transcends the bureaucratic reliance on the public sector alone. The strategy must fundamentally achieve a synergy between state resources and the social capital and other availabilities inherent in the communities. The concerted and coordinated strategic plan of action demand a focus on critical pillars as basic infrastructure and social overheads provisioning; enterprise development; employment generation and skills enhancement; promoting traditional activities in the local economy; promoting tourism; pushing for attitudinal change and cultural renaissance; intensification of cooperative activities; and institution building.

    Even though the public sector requires the highest level of support to achieve the level of development strategizing Nigeria requires, it also means, for Mabogunje, that the civil service must be efficiently and effectively capacitated to play it imperative role. And one would therefore not be surprised at some of the issues of reform that Mabogunje emphasized. The most fundamental, from the vantage point of his development vision, is the public-private partnership that could be deployed to bring the various critical stakeholders into concerted relationship for enhanced development. The real issue is therefore not just the ability of the public service to enter into contractual relationship and partnerships with consortiums and nonstate organizations; it is essentially the reform of contractual obligations and the need to fulfil them. Institutional parameters must be put into reform documents that will ensure that the government, through its MDAs stand by their contractual and partnership responsibilities. This would also mean, by administrative necessity, that recruitment and upward mobility in the civil service must be purely by merit. Mabogunje’s membership in the Udoji Commission of 1972 comes in handy in his reform recommendation. He insisted, for instance, that the federal character principle must only be deployed as an entry requirement. It should have no role to play in upward and intersectoral mobility.  It is only this way that the Nigerian civil service could be repositioned so it could attain the status of the All-India Civil Service where the top echelon “can stand up in management terms with the best anywhere in the world”.

    Professor Mabogunje was intellectually and politically astute sufficiently to understand that if anything must happen at the level of institutional reforms he championed, it must happen at a deep constitutional level. Nigeria requires a fundamental restructuring to be able to make headways with any institutional and governance reforms. In this regard, the 1963 Constitution provides a viable constitutional template for rethinking the possibility of a competitive federal system that will stimulate regional development. The change required must be such that will not make states beggars at the federal government table. States must be robust federating units that have the wherewithal to initiate innovative development programmes. This can only come from constitutional amendments that will allow states or geopolitical zones to contribute 50% from their mineral earnings to the federal purse and achieving constitutional concession to collect levies, say, on VAT, without this being taken over by the FG.

    Anyone with a modicum of development and governance expertise will immediately see how the legacy thoughts of Professor Akinlawon Ladipo Mabogunje tie together into a coherent framework of development for Nigeria. These thoughts are still flowing free in the development space of the Nigerian polity, waiting for a perspicacious government to tap into. This is what constitute immortality for this colossal genius and patriot. These ideas could also constitute the first steps towards Nigeria’s greatness if only we will take note and harness them. 

    • Olaopa-Retired Federal Permanent Secretary & Professor, National Institute For Policy and Strategic Studies  (NIPSS), Kuru, Jos  tolaopa2003@gmail.com

     

     

  • Did Boris Johnson commit ‘offence’ known to politics?

    Did Boris Johnson commit ‘offence’ known to politics?

    A columnist, Tunji Ajibade, wrote a piece on Boris Johnson’s removal for the Punch Newspaper on the 19th of August and without mincing words, I profoundly disagree with most of his submissions. I find the attempt to defend morally questionable actions of the prime minster not only problematic, but an indication of a serious misunderstanding of the purposes of governance and the importance of values.  Although Mr Ajibade begins the article by declaring his bias towards Boris Johnson, I am not convinced that a declaration of his subjectivity is enough to shield the piece from critical scrutiny. The author is a political scientist and as a politics and international relations scholar myself, this rejoinder should be considered in the spirit of peer review and critique.

    Early in the piece, the author asks if there is any ‘book [that stipulates] how a politician should conduct the affairs of the state?’ On this basis, he argues that Boris Johnson could not be considered to have broken any supposed law of politics or guilty of the accusations levelled against him. Mr Ajibade ought to know that politicians are not freewheelers who could invent rules and refuse to be constrained by established norms. In a democratic order, political customs are as important as positive law. Also, as the United Kingdom operates an unwritten constitution, traditions and customs have come to assume a central role in regulating the political space. But more importantly, Mr Ajibade should have understood that the prime minister is subject to the law and constrained by the norms that govern the office he holds.

    The author argues incorrectly regarding Mr Johnson’s innocence. One wonders if Mr Ajibade remembers that the prime minister was fined by the Metropolitan Police for violating the lockdown laws that his own government passed. And more significant, perhaps, is the damage to public trust that Mr Johnson’s actions triggered. Under the strict lockdown rules that the government implemented, ordinary citizens were fined for going to supermarkets considered an unreasonable distance from their place of abode or going to the local park to exercise more times than was allowed. Individuals were prevented from visiting relatives dying of covid-19 at the hospitals or to spend time with lonely grandparents.

    Any society that is serious about the idea of the rule of law (and I hope that Mr Ajibade recognises the importance of this) cannot have one rule for those governed and another for those who govern. Sadly, the prime minister was ‘cavorting’ with members of his administration as thousands grieved over friends and families who died alone in hospital wards. It is deeply problematic that Mr Ajibade seeks to explain away the actions of the prime minister. He should be reminded that Mr Johnson is not an overlord whose actions are beyond reproach.

    Read Also; Why Boris Johnson isn’t finished

    A more concerning argument within the article is the seeming endorsement of Machiavellian principles in the conduct of state affairs by the author. In The Prince, Niccolò Machiavelli extolled vices as virtues. Even in the 16th century, his ideas were so fundamentally unethical that the Church proscribed his work. Indeed, Machiavellian values are so outrageous that they have no place in contemporary domestic politics. Afterall, who would want to universalise principles that make it okay to murder opponents even if it has practical benefits or provides access to power?

    From Ajibade’s rather cursory and dismissive discussion of the various scandals of the Boris Johnson’s government, one immediately recognises the absence of a comprehensive knowledge or understanding of Johnson’s transgressions and how they tear at the fabric of institutions critical to the functioning of the democratic order.  For instance, the author dismisses the controversy around the refurbishment of Downing Street and fails to recognise that at the heart of issue is corruption. In revealed text messages between the prime minister and the donor, Tory peer David Brownlow, it was evident that the PM intended to trade government funding for Brownlow’s Great Exhibition project for the refurbishment of his residence. Need anyone explain the dangers of allowing corruption to fester within the body polity to a Nigerian?

    Ajibade argues that politicians are not perfect, and this is true. Most citizens do not expect or demand perfection. However, we cannot adopt a cavalier attitude towards corruption, dishonesty, and a disregard for the law. Whether in liberal democratic states or in societies like ours, there must be minimum standards of behaviour that political office holders are held to. If one follows Ajibade’s arguments to their logical conclusion, then by the standard of his own Machiavellian principles, that Richard Nixon was forced to resign over Watergate must be considered an outrage. After all, what law of politics did he violate and is there is any ‘book [that stipulates] how a politician should conduct the affairs of the state?

    Journalists, especially opinion writers, are public intellectuals. There is a duty to educate readers in a way that strengthens civic norms and political values. Mr Boris Johnson routinely violated the law and undermined important political norms. My concern is that explaining away fundamental moral indiscretions of the prime minister creates a latitude for domestic politicians to act and justify similar indiscretions.

    Our travails as a nation cannot be completely disassociated from our daily willingness to turn a blind eye to acts of dishonesty in our routine encounters or to justify nepotism and corruption that privileges us. Until we understand how routine practices of truth telling, integrity, fairness, and other social values provide the sub-structure that developed states anchor their societies upon, our hope to exit the misery of poverty and underdevelopment will forever remain illusory.

    • Dr Adediran is an Assistant professor in International Relations at Liverpool Hope University. He can be contacted on: bolaadediran2020@yahoo.com

  • Much ado about Osun LG elections

    Much ado about Osun LG elections

    The Osun Independent Electoral Commission (OSIEC) has announced October 15, 2022 as the date for Local Government and Local Council Development Area elections across Osun State. According to the Commission, “all the inhibiting factors and circumstances against the conduct of the elections have been ameliorated.”

    However, the Osun State Chapter of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) has vowed to boycott the elections because they would “be wasteful” as well as run afoul of “the provisions of Section 28 of the Electoral Act 2022.”

    From the look of things, Osun PDP seems to be a lone ranger as other political parties have concluded plans to field candidates for the elections. According to the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), the ‘umbrella’ party “is just one out of 18 political parties in the state. As such, “its action … neither affects the integrity nor the credibility of the scheduled elections.”

    In the events leading to the January 27, 2018 LG elections, I had written an article, entitled ‘Osun and the gospel of parliamentary democracy’, to comment on Section 22 of the Local Government (Administration) Law Cap 72A, Vol. 4, Laws of Osun State 2002 (as amended) which at the time constitutionally ratified parliamentary system of government for Local Governments in the state. The law has now been repealed to pave the way for a new law. ‘The State of Osun Local Government Areas Creation and Administration Amendment no 5 Law 2022’ has returned the presidential system to local government administration in the state. A new law, ‘The Osun State Independent Electoral Commission Law 2022’ was also enacted to allow OSIEC to “have its own law to guide and regulate its conduct.”

    Of a fact, Nigeria’s political trajectory – from 1960 till date – is one that has culminated in the current chaos, lack of development and all sorts of social malady in our society. They are all the combined results of the kind of politics we have played. For instance, instead of preaching fire and brimstone sermons, condemning the Constitution-backed polls, why can’t Osun PDP work at putting its house in order? For God’s sake, it’s less than two months that the party arguably won Osun governorship election. So, what has suddenly changed? If it is that solid on ground; and, if it indeed won the people’s hearts, then, it shouldn’t be difficult to replicate the wining magic; except there is more to it than it is willing to tell the masses. It makes no sense that the party is anxiety-stricken simply because the incumbent governor, whom its candidate just defeated, is planning an election. What if at the end of the ongoing litigations, the court rules that there should be a rerun of the last gubernatorial election, does it mean that Osun PDP is not so sure that it will win?

    Read Also: Factors that will shape next year’s general elections

    As for the legality or otherwise of the polls, let Osun PDP stop its terrifying screams and allow a court of competent jurisdiction to adjudicate on the matter.  Essentially, instead of needlessly heating up the polity and expanding the frontiers of groundless rumours, it should tread the path of maturity. That’s how to make our democracy work!

    While Osun PDP may be afraid of a woeful loss, should it partake of the elections, it is not in doubt that some members of the ruling party must have by now seen the folly of their contributions to the party’s uninspiring outing on July 16, 2022 and may want to tap into the anointing of the forthcoming exercise to salvage the situation. And we all know what that means!

    Whichever way, Gboyega Oyetola remains the duly elected governor of Osun! Do the naysayers therefore expect him to sit down, idling away, without performing his roles as enshrined in the Constitution? If the PDP wants to wilfully task the tolerance of Section 7(1) of the 1999 Constitution or insult the collective intelligence of the judiciary as espoused by the Supreme Court judgements of May 7, 2021, why not allow the sitting government to ‘commit the error’ and wait for an opportune time to ‘torment the error’ in the law court? If the party wins, the elections will be upturned and thrown into the trash can for new elections a la Osun PDP specifications to be organized.

    In a word, one can only hope that the government that’s planning the elections has also rectified the fault lines allegedly troubling the inner workings of the ruling party. Otherwise, let it be known that, even the Ogedengbe Agbogungboros of the ancient times would never go to war without consulting the oracles and plotting the maps. Wake Benjamin Franklin, Max Weber, even Aristotle up from their graves and one will be surprised that these philosophers would wish to learn at the feet of our revered Yoruba legends. It is rather sad that there are no vital documents detailing the war exploits of these brave and wonderful warriors. Otherwise, one would have realized that their prowess bellied the Franklins’. Sadder that their achievements died with them as a result of the level of civilization at the time!

    All said, there is something about elections, and it is that they either bring along with them new orientations or entrench existing ones. In Nigeria, for example, once there is an election, expectations of assured benefits to the participants are always high. Matter-of-factly speaking, such stuffs not only encourage political participation but also give the participants a sense of belonging. The understanding or lack of this essential feature is usually a factor in winning or losing elections. For example, yours sincerely was in the Osun APC Media Situation Room for the governorship poll on August 9, 2014 when former Governor Bisi Akande phoned me to express his appreciation for my little efforts even as he advised on new tasks. It is therefore a statement of fact that the systemic management, accommodation and collaboration of efforts of all political functionaries go a long way in engendering significant cohesion.

    If there’s no internal harmony, trouble looms! If the flow that gives the people a sense of belonging and encourages participation loses its rhyme and/or rhythm, then, success may be on a long trip. If cohesion is on strike, professional politicians will be on the prowl. One of the prominent features of such people is that they are neither permanent friends nor permanent enemies but agents of permanent interests. And those interests are for the sustenance of their respective families!  Since nothing in our democratic settings or political practice points towards patriotism, they are propelled more by lust for power than by quest for service. They also depend more on dints of luck than instincts of gut.

    Finally yet importantly, the nature of elections in Nigeria is one in which the people become hyperactive because they understand the game to the extent that, even, recruitment into the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as ad hoc staff has now become an issue. Even, university professors are now part of it! So, who will tell a professor not to cut corners, especially, when he or she realizes how Sections 65(2)(a), 106(c), 131(d) and 177(d) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) have been tormenting the destinies of elections, even appointments into political offices in Nigeria?

    May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Osun State!

    • KOMOLAFE wrote in from Ijebu-Jesa, Osun State (ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk)

  • On Bola Tinubu’s visit to Obasanjo

    On Bola Tinubu’s visit to Obasanjo

    Some days ago, the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, visited the former president, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, in his Abeokuta home. Asiwaju stormed Obasanjo’s home with an entourage of solid politicians drawn from within and without the South West on a visit, meant to further the pre-election consultation the revered democrat has embarked upon en-route the February 2023 presidential election where he is a leading front runner.

    Asiwaju and Obasanjo were not the best of friends if we are to talk of the tempestuous politics of Nigeria.  Both served in the same democratic epoch. While Obasanjo was the president of Nigeria from 1999 to 2007, Asiwaju was the Governor of Lagos during the same period. While Obasanjo wielded the enormous power of the Nigerian presidency, Asiwaju wielded massive power as Governor of the richest, most powerful, most influential state in Nigeria during the same period. While Obasanjo was of the ruling PDP, Asiwaju was of the opposition AD at that period.

    But then, the character traits of the two did not match confluence. Obasanjo was an autocratic, forceful, removed and brash leader; Asiwaju was a democratic, humane, persuasive and urbane leader with a solid connection to the people.

    What’s more, the kind of coercive politics Obasanjo chose to play as President and Leader of PDP pitched him strongly against Asiwaju, who was unofficially the Opposition Leader then and resented such forceful and coercive politics. So there was no love lost between President Obasanjo and Governor Tinubu as their reign lasted.

    As a staunch democrat, Tinubu, as Lagos Governor, instituted and prosecuted many judicial cases that questioned the kind of suzerain rulership of Obasanjo. Such laws sliced through the absolute powers of the center over the states and to his credit, most of these cases were successfully prosecuted in favour of the states, thus nibbling off some of the centre’s powers in the states’ turn.  These judicial interventions have gone a long way to redefine the Nigerian federal structure. But Obasanjo and his PDP did not like this hence the frosty relationship they maintained with Tinubu.

    The high point of the cat-and-dog relationship between Obasanjo and Tinubu was the vexed issue of local government creation, which led Obasanjo to seize the local government allocations for Lagos in the entire years he was in power. Lagos, under Tinubu, created other local governments to augment the paltry number of local governments in the state. The Obasanjo-led federal government argued that Lagos was acting outside its powers by creating more local governments, insisting that the power to create new local governments resided with the federal government. Lagos went to court to establish its power to create local governments, but the Obasanjo government resorted to self-help by withholding local government allocations due for Lagos. Eventually,  the Supreme Court ruled in favour of Lagos, both on the right to create new local governments and the illegality of the Obasanjo government in withholding its allocations. Despite the Supreme Court rulings, the Obasanjo government still held on to the allocations to the end of Obasanjo’s tenure.

    Read Also: Obasanjo and 2023 elections

    We recall that during the 2003 elections, Obasanjo unleashed brute force and untoward acts to annex the entire South West for his PDP. These were successful as the five AD governors in the South West were brutally removed in that farcical election. It was only Tinubu that survived this onslaught, and this added to the anger of Obasanjo and PDP against Tinubu. Still, there was nothing they could do about it than live with the reality of Tinubu’s impregnable political clout. This Asiwaju combined with a  consistent  demonstration of  the wisdom to place activity and achievement side-by-side without confusing action with achievement.

    With the scenario above, one would wonder why Asiwaju should visit Obasanjo in the process leading to the coming presidential election. For anything, Obasanjo is not really an active politician, having severally announced his retirement from politics and having publicly quit PDP.

    But those that raise this poser are ignorant of Asiwaju’s liberal personality, which knows no differing boundaries. To Asiwaju, everyone matters, in apparent deference to his persona. Asiwaju believes that there are no permanent friends or enemies; thus, he believes in enlisting everyone that has something to contribute to the impending task of furthering the rebuilding and repositioning process in Nigeria.  Also, Asiwaju patterned his political strength on attaining excellence; he knows that if great minds chase perfection, they usually can catch excellence. As a former military and civilian leader, Asiwaju believes that Obasanjo still has something to contribute to Nigeria. He believes that partisan politics shouldn’t prevent him from tapping such contributions because petty partisan influences do not trap him. Asiwaju presents leadership and democratic winning as a framework that leading smarter is an effective way to push productivity and not to labour harder in vain. Nonetheless, recognising Obasanjo’s achievement at this level undoubtedly gives further winning effectiveness to Asiwaju’s inspiring and outstanding leadership prowess.

    Again, Asiwaju is noted for his broadmindedness in relating to people. Asiwaju is a man that won’t hesitate to go to his opponents if they have anything to bring to the table. He does not shun someone who has something good to give to the cause because he doesn’t share his political belief. That is why he easily forgives and has no permanent foe. Regarding the nation’s interest, Asiwaju forgives and tolerates easily for many reasons best known to him but known to all because of his inspiring leadership quality and helping others to impress when it comes to performance matters.

    So, from the outside, Asiwaju’s meeting with Obasanjo was a meeting of two political foes that stand on the opposite sides of the political spectrum, but in real terms, it was not. It was a critical engagement by two leaders that understood the need to interface for the good of the Commonwealth. It was a strategic move by Asiwaju to involve those that stand to enrich his ambition to advance governance in Nigeria through his well-acknowledged governance competence that excelled Lagos and has etched the state at the very zenith of development and growth today. Tinubu rightly needed Obasanjo’s endorsement as those of other past leaders and rightly went for it for the greater good of the Nigerian state and all Nigerians.

    One may ask if Asiwaju wanted to tap the political clout of Obasanjo during that visit. Still, the reality is that Obasanjo has more leadership notes to give Asiwaju than political clout. Good enough, Obasanjo had severally announced he had quit politics and even reaffirmed that position when Asiwaju visited. Addressing Asiwaju, Obasanjo once said, ”I am not a politician, I am a decorated Soldier, an Army General. If you are looking for thoroughbred politician of masters class, visit Lagos Bourdillon, there you’ll find one….”  This reaffirms the political superiority of Asiwaju this he didn’t visit Obasanjo to cash out politically.

    So as it stands today, Obasanjo has more value as an elder statesman, a two-time Head of State, and a veteran military officer with vast expertise in governance and nation-building than a notable partisan leader. That was why all the political differences between Asiwaju and Obasanjo never counted when Asiwaju visited Obasanjo.  That was why the meeting was full of conviviality and humour. Indeed it was a major political masterstroke that will further the interests of Nigeria in the long run.

    Obasanjo was further reported to have said at the meeting; “Politics however has no permanent friends or enemies, if you remind me about what Bola said about me 4yrs ago, have you reminded yourself about what I did to him and his Lagos govt about 20yrs ago? I almost crashed his govt and state, no governor or government from 1999 to date could have survived what I did to Bola and Lagos, No one. He survived because he has the magic wand. I hope he gets the chance to wave the nagic wand over Nigeria…”

    The meeting between Asiwaju and Obasanjo furthers the readiness and preparedness of Asiwaju to take up the baton of Nigerian leadership in 2023. It further consolidates his wide acceptance and cements his attribute as a consummate bridge-builder that has the capacity to bring everyone, tribe, faith and gender on board to advance the progress of Nigeria. To Asiwaju, no river is too deep to cross to give Nigeria the top-notch and enduring leadership he gave Lagos. The same attribute that made him engage and involve everyone to deliver a stellar record in Lagos is what Asiwaju demonstrated by engaging Obasanjo. This shows that he will never hesitate to engage other Nigerians, irrespective of political persuasion, in the task of governing Nigeria if he is eventually elected President in February. This is a fundamental trait in Nigeria, divided down the line by partisan inclination and interests.

    With this latest outing, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has again shown he trumps other candidates in the presidential race, and this solidifies the cutting-edge advantage he has over them.  He has shown he towers above others in broadmindedness, which is a critical attribute needed to govern a hugely divided country like Nigeria.

    So Asiwaju’s meeting with Obasanjo was a significant score that resonated loudly in the Nigerian polity. The camaraderie that ran through the entire length of the meeting demonstrated the success of the meeting.

    By the time Asiwaju left Obasanjo’s residence, an elated Obasanjo had pledged, “If you have any assignment for me, give it to me; I will do it”. This could not have come from a former president to just anybody. It could only have been directed to an incoming President.

    • Ojo Emmanuel Ademola
  • Cuba as a metaphor

    Cuba as a metaphor

    Perhaps the greatest challenge facing a weekly columnist such as I have lately become is finding a suitable hanger on which to hang his weekly discourse. At the beginning of the week after the column has made its sometimes unlikely appearance, there is a feeling of relief and accomplishment and one can relax. This feeling however evaporates quickly at the realisation that another week had come round and before the end of it another article had to be concocted and inflicted on an unseen audience containing at least a few people who had the rightful expectation of reading another offering. The first couple of days after publication may be comfortable enough but a slight panic sets in if the column has not assumed some shape and quickly balloons into a full panic if by mid-week the next instalment has not been formed in the mind.

    There is really no fool proof method to getting anything out but the columnist hunts for a suitable topic of conversation virtually all the time especially because not everything that comes  to mind can be developed into an article that is worthy of presentation to an informed audience. The search for a suitable subject can lead into all sorts of venues each of them more unlikely than the last and some of these could be alleyways which under normal circumstances cannot by any stretch of the imagination be considered worthy of consideration.

    Last week, I was blown onto the right track in my search for a reasonable topic of discussion by a rare visit to Facebook and quite coincidentally, I have the same source to thank for inspiration for what I have decided to talk about this week.

    The ASUU strike which has led to the closure of our public universities has been a hot topic of discussion on social media and indeed other fora of public discussion in the land. At this point there is hardly anyone with a voice who has not taken a stand, for or against ASUU. The indifference which characterised the declaration of the strike six months ago has now evaporated to be replaced by indignation in many quarters. The government which not too long ago was confident that the strike would be broken after a few weeks has been stung and confounded by the resoluteness of their battered opponents and are now wondering what could be done to cower the striking lecturers and force them back into their cobwebbed classrooms and shuttered libraries, there to teach whatever they had been paid, or not paid to teach. Talks have been held in a rather desultory manner between union and government and more importantly, the striking lecturers were supposed to have been put in their place by their inadequate salaries being withheld for the duration of the strike which under the circumstances should be short. Unfortunately those strong-arm tactics do not seem to have worked and the strike has now stretched into the seventh sterile month. The lecturers are not being paid and government has upped the ante whilst pleading with the lecturers to call off their strike, by insisting that all those accumulated salaries that had been unpaid were to be forfeited to government whenever they returned to work. So far, the hungry or perhaps, starving lecturers are hanging tough and the universities are still shut down.

    Read Also: Zamfara as a metaphor for Nigeria

    The other trending subject and one which cannot be separated from the strike is the continued migration of our young and not so young people to what has been described as greener pastures found mainly in the affluent countries of the West. It is not coincidence that the people taking flight are those who have attended one Nigerian university or the other and in doing so had acquired the means of being found useful within the developed economies of their intended societies. The most visible cohorts in this happy band of travellers are doctors and nurses who are being vacuumed up to serve in those well equipped hospitals and clinics of the first world. One commentator on Facebook drew attention to this phenomenon in a rather lengthy post which he brought to what many, if not a majority of his readers considered to be a highly debatable conclusion. It was his opinion that it was not just right for people who had been trained in Nigeria to jump ship as soon as there was some turbulence. I agreed with that conclusion because the receiving country was reaping a rich harvest from a field in which they had not bothered to sow.

    Not unexpectedly, I was set upon by two young(?) doctors who were convinced that they, as doctors were entitled to make a decent living from their profession. Since their country of birth had more or less turned her back on them, they had no option but to wash the dust of Nigeria off their feet and seek their entitled fortune elsewhere. The doctors insisted that I had been unfair to doctors who had the primary responsibility of saving lives and were not being adequately remunerated for this function within Nigeria. In that circumstance therefore their qualification as doctors was a flight ticket into whatever paradise they chose to fly into.

    These are two apparently irreconcilable positions, both of them heavy with moral implications begs the question, what is the purpose of education? It is clear that in Nigeria the primary purpose of education is to secure the comforts necessary for a life of ease. You go to school so as to become a ‘big man’ having risen far above the common herd. Anything else must be considered secondary to this purpose. This has been drummed into the consciousness of succeeding generations of Nigerians to such an extent that any effort to change or modify this mind set is bound to fail. It has become set in concrete especially in our brave new world of overnight billionaires who have turned computer languages into gold mines which keep giving. In this environment there is moral justification for expecting a life time of reaping the benefits of subjecting yourself to the discipline of the classroom for a few years after which the rewards which are reaped for life becomes an entitlement. On the other hand, how can a third world structure within which some form of education has been extracted be expected to provide the comfortable environment which their educated status demands? In any competition between their home environment and the lands flowing with milk and honey overseas, Nigeria loses hands down and the country which has provided the education which has now become a passport to global wealth no longer deserves to be served in any capacity. The only option is to leave as soon as possible. Nigeria is in an obvious state of underdevelopment and needs to move up but how can this movement be achieved when the people who have been educated with the sole purpose of driving this development process take flight as soon as they have acquired the wings necessary for this purpose?

    The flight of doctors, nurses and indeed other professionals from Nigeria has now acquired the status of a roaring epidemic. It has become a yard stick for measuring success. For some people of my experience and generation, their success in life is now measured by how many of their children live in Canada or some other exotic location. It is clear now that Nigeria has been producing graduates in virtually all fields at a rate which is far beyond her requirement for servicing the country optimally. We obviously have too many doctors and nurses than are required for our healthcare needs and with lawyers being pumped out  at the rate of knots, it is to be expected that young lawyers, when they find jobs at all, are offered the kind of salaries which secondary school leavers would have rejected out of hand only a decade ago. And yet the queue of hopeful university freshers is as long as the imagination will conjure up.

    Doctors and nurses are needed in Britain because unlike in Nigeria, that country has an extensive and expanding healthcare delivery system. For all that the system is notorious for being stingy with its wages. Britain is not willing or able to spend the kind of money she needs to spend to maintain her National Health Service. Apart from this, they cannot afford to pay for the education of the personnel required to keep the service running. In addition, there are not enough Britons who are willing to pay for medical training or make the effort to study medicine. But why should they bother when there are thousands of doctors who are surplus to requirement in Nigeria? True Nigerian doctors have been trained at minimal cost, they are still good enough to pull through their shift within the NHS. The situation is that Nigeria with all her disabilities is now providing technical aid to Britain which, compared to Nigeria is a rich capitalist country. During the extended period of the Atlantic slave trade, millions of West Africans were trafficked across the Atlantic to work in the plantations which made it possible for capitalism to be planted in the rich soil of Europe and America. This in turn made it possible for those places to become the affluent societies which are now attracting our professionals in droves. In other words, the triangular trade which enriched Europe at the expense of West Africa is still alive and well complete with the coercion which characterised it so many centuries ago.

    My antagonists on Facebook made the point that they, being doctors they deserved a guaranteed high standard of living no matter how deprived other members of society are. Well, they have a point well worth defending. But there are other ways of looking at this situation. Immediately after the Cuban Revolution a little over sixty years ago, the decision was taken to bring the healthcare standards of the ordinary Cuban to first world standards. The first step taken to achieve this objective was to accelerate the production of doctors and this was accomplished at record speed. Cuba was suddenly awash with doctors. But being a revolutionary society, the doctors were not hoisted on a pedestal. They were not paid more than plumbers and carpenters and had no special privileges. Some of those doctors defected but an overwhelming majority stayed at home and today the life expectancy on that island is only  a couple of years lower than what it is in the USA. Cuba has one of the lowest figures for child mortality in the world and Cuban medical scientists have made a name for themselves in the area of vaccine development and production. Cuban doctors have been contracted to work for their government in no less than sixty-seven countries. Cuba has a population of eleven million and for this number there are 100,000doctors and the same number of nurses and there 50,000 professors making sure that the next generation of medical doctors will continue to roll off the assembly line. In the meantime, medical tourism is one of the healthiest sectors of the Cuban economy and Cuban medical schools are attracting students from all over the world. All these indices are in spite of the vengeful economic blockage by the USA which has been in place over the last sixty years. If Nigeria was in any way like Cuba, her professionals would mostly be at home working towards the development of the nation.

  • Nigeria’s oil thieves

    Nigeria’s oil thieves

    SIR: Nigeria has seen all there is to see – sweet and sour – about oil exploration. However, amidst the euphoria of oil discovery and subsequent exploration, Nigeria could not have foreseen that one of nature’s most important gifts could turn out to be more of a curse than a blessing.

    For the good people of the Niger-Delta, the discovery of oil in their soil should have led to a change of fortunes for the golden goose that lays the golden eggs. Instead, their experience has been of a region raped and ruined.

    Water sources have been contaminated as soil in the region has been rendered unfit for economic activities. Even the air people breathe is polluted.  And as regions far away from the devastation continue to bask in the oil glow, with Nigerian leaders even reserving enough to be dubiously magnanimous to neighbouring countries, the epicentre of the exploration remains in ruin.

    The historic injustice and resentment provided the fuel that caused the militancy in the Niger-Delta to flare in the early 2000s. In many ways, it laid the groundwork of the insecurity which today ravages the country with vengeance.

    If it appears that the region is at peace today, it is in many ways peace of the graveyard as tensions continue to simmer just below the surface in a region that is no doubt more than happy to watch chaos eat up other parts of Nigeria.

    Read Also: Confronting the growing menace of oil theft

    Crime and criminals have always shown that they can adapt. Historically, crime and criminals have always come to take the colour of wherever they find themselves.

    As oil has become the centre of the Nigerian economy, oil thieves and snake oil salesmen have become more frenetic in their activities. As things stand, there are many who would shortchange Nigeria and deny Nigerians of all that should flow into their national treasury.

    It is not just that petrodollars pouring into the country have spawned a succession of indolent and unimaginative governments, those who have found their way into public offices over the years in Nigeria have been left with more than enough to steal, and how they have been very generous to themselves in this time.

    Nigeria is said to be losing $40m daily to the activities of oil thieves. In April this year, more than a hundred illegal oil bunkerers were roasted beyond recognition when fire broke out in an illegal refinery at Abaezi in Imo State.

    The Federal Government is said to have a list of some of those raking in billions of naira from the illegal oil business, but till now, Nigerians are yet to see it.

    Just as Nigerians are yet to see the list of some of those sponsoring terrorism in the country. At the end of the day, it is a question of accountability and just how it continues to fail in Nigeria, thereby fostering an environment that is conducive for corruption.

    Nigeria is up against it. Whether the government of the day can stand up to the thieves, many of whom may be within its own ranks, is yet to be determined. Determining that is key to how Nigeria can tackle a real menace.

    • Kene Obiezu, Keneobiezu@gmail.com

  • Military doing well

    Military doing well

    SIR: As we have patriots, we have some that do not see anything good in this nation. Praise the government and they’d immediately tear you apart for seeing anything good in Buhari; and demonise the government and they will high-five you for speaking the “truth.”

    May it not be our portion to have our eyes wide open, and not see. Or to have our ears as big as the umbrella of a certain political party, and not hear anything. May it not be our portion, I say again.

    For a while now, insurgency, banditry and kidnapping have become a quotidian aspect of Nigerian life. Killings and kidnappings have persisted with each incident surpassing the previous in gruesomeness, audacity and ruthlessness.

    However, of late, good stuff has been emerging from the Nigerian space. First it was Tobi Amusan, Ese Brume to RRS former Chief, Tunji Disu who all made the Nigerian flag fly high at the recently concluded Commonwealth Games, to the Nigerian military who are doing well in keeping the country safe.

    The Nigerian military has been giving the enemies of this country, the bad boys, a bloody nose, kicking their crazy ass and ultimately sending them to God to answer for their misdeeds and transgressions.

    Read Also; End insecurity, terrorism APC tasks military

    The military airstrikes in the past days have resulted in the death of several terrorists from Barkiya to Kurfi to Dadawa to Galbi ti Birnin Gwari to Maiduguri and other parts of the northwest and northeast.

    The troops are spending time with the mosquitoes and deadly animals in the cold and deep forests without their partners or spouses, making sure we can sleep well with our two eyes closed.

    According to preliminary reports, over 200 bad boys have been sent to God to answer for their misdeeds, several captured, scores of rustled cattle and ammunition recovered.

    It’s not without loss on Nigeria’s side, but such men are the ones about whom the English metaphysical poet, John Donne, in his sonnet, Death Be Not Proud, said: “… for those whom thou think’st thou dost overthrow, Die not…”

    We will not rejoice at iniquity, at evil. We will not pump discouragement into our troops, nor into a government working hard to improve our fortunes, despite the strong winds of adversity.

    May the Almighty God continue to be with our troops and cause peace to return to our dear native land, Nigeria! Amen.

    • Uthman Bagbansoro, Abuja

  • Beyond dismissal of corrupt policemen

    Beyond dismissal of corrupt policemen

    SIR: “De-kitted.” Lately, this word gained currency in the country following the sacking of two policemen for corruption-related activities.

    In 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime declared the Nigeria Police as the most corrupt institution in the country. In 2019, the World Internal Security and Police Index also ranked the Nigeria Police as the worst in Africa. It is sad that policemen who are supposed to treat the infirmity of corruption have become the dinosaurs of the unworthy act.

    But then, the question is: Why have other policemen not learnt from the punishment of their peers who were dismissed for corruption and extortion? Or, put differently, why are Nigerian policemen hellbent on not abiding by the message of their motto, “Police Is Your Friend”?

    A factor that continues to contribute to their unending corruption is their low salaries and poor working conditions.

    Aside from the 2012 subsidy protest dubbed “Occupy Nigeria,” in which Nigerians spoke out in unison against increase in petrol price under the Goodluck Jonathan administration, they had hardly come together in a strong nationwide protest until the EndSARS protest of 2020, which nearly ripped the country apart. Aggrieved Nigerians could not continue to bear the extortion and ordeal they faced daily from policemen who were supposed to protect their rights but extorted them and caused pain.

    Commendably, the EndSARS protesters did not only seek reformation and rehabilitation of policemen, part of their agitation was “increment in the salaries of the policemen,” as little or insufficient pay could be a reason, they go about extorting citizens. Research has it that Nigerian policemen are one of, if not the least paid in the world.

    Read Also: Police reply actress Shan George on dismissed officers

    Undeniably, the working conditions of Nigerian policemen are quite ignominious. Many of those who roam the streets and extort citizens would have found pleasure in staying at their stations if they were good and conducive. The conditions of many police stations, police vehicles, uniforms, and ammunition are deplorable and unbefitting of the policemen who put their lives at risk in the protection of citizens.

    Over the years, there have been several promises of salary increases for the police. The Federal Government, State Governments, the Senate, the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) and appropriate bodies should not only pass bills or make promises regarding increasing the salaries of the police.  Implementation is critical.

    A situation in which constables earn about ¦ 45,000 or ¦ 50,000 in a crippled economy is not only bad but laughable. Some days ago, some policemen took to the streets of Kwara State to protest non-payment of their 16 months’ salaries. Denying policemen their salaries can lead to bad consequences, one of which is that they would transfer their aggression and strike innocent citizens with the venom of anger.

    While we may not justify policemen that are extortionists, we also can’t turn a blind eye to their paltry salaries and awful working conditions. Also, their recruitment should not just be based on academic merit only; character and psychological checks need to be fully considered, as no sane policeman will go about being an agent of extortion. In addition, talks, seminars, and conferences that constantly remind them of their responsibilities and public expectation, will, without doubt, reduce corruption among them.

    Dismissing policemen who extort without giving those in service better working conditions will only turn out to be like sowing seeds of discord; you squash one and another germinates. And sadly, these dismissals will only continue to add to the hunger and unemployment rate, and even shorten the number of officers of an institution which has already fallen short in figure, and has about 350,000 or 370,000 for a population of 200 million plus, as opposed to the United Nations recommendation of 340: 100,000 police-to-citizen ratios.

    The NPF should not just focus on the shadow while acting blind to the substance. They should first draw their officers close with friendly hands before reprimanding them with iron hands.  Without doubt, when policemen receive better salaries and work in a conducive atmosphere, they would be less vulnerable to extortion.

    • Hashim Yussuf Amao, Ibadan, Oyo State
  • Inflation, agent of insecurity

    Inflation, agent of insecurity

    Inflation is the parent of unemployment and the unseen robber of those who have saved.” Margaret Thatcher

    Life has extremely been difficult for the masses as a result of the untold hardships the predominant and aggressive inflation has caused in the country. Most Nigerians feel great agony when they go to the market or a shop to make some purchases because prices of food items and commodities are increasing daily but their purchasing power is dwindling at an alarming rate.

    Consequently, poverty increases as a result of diminishing income, which culminates in hunger and hunger degenerates into violent anger. Of course, an angry man is a potential danger to lives and properties. Inflation now is a dreaded economic disease afflicting the masses who cannot afford three square meals per day in Nigeria.

    Inflation is currently coercing the masses to bear the unbearable suffering that is spreading despair in many homes. It has broken many families into pieces and ruined their happiness. It has also generated massive unemployment as many factories are folding up, laying off their workers owing to high cost of production courtesy of Naira devaluation. Indeed, it has caused many socioeconomic destructions that will be hard to reconstruct.

    The trouble with our government is prescribing the wrong therapy for economic ailments. History has taught us that currency devaluation, recommended by our foreign creditors, has done more harm than good to our economy. Recall that former military ruler Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida’s deep romance with the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) only succeeded in the economic enslavement of most Nigerians, widening the gap between the rich and the poor.

    More than three decades after the imposition of SAP, with currency devaluation as its mainstay, its negative repercussions are still living with us and following us like a shadow. At the commencement of the infamous SAP, the late erudite economist Professor Sam Aluko had prophesied that the real effects of SAP would not be felt until after 10 years. Has Aluko not been vindicated? Unfortunately, most of our leaders fail to learn the good lessons of history.

    The Buhari administration, right from its inception, did not start on a good note. Despite the fact that boosting the economy was a cardinal aspect of his campaign promises, he failed to assemble the best economic team that would weather the storm and deliver on the pledge. Many experts on economy, including two former Central Bank Governors, Prof. Charles Soludo and Malam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, warned the Buhari presidency of the impending dangers of the poor handling of the economy. The poor result now is that the economy is worse than he met it when he took over the mantle of leadership in 2015. For instance, what a bag of rice costs now could be used to purchase three bags of the same rice in those years!

    The worst part of it is that the government has failed to tackle the rising cost of living in the country. It has not initiated any positive step to soften the adverse effects of this economic crisis, which has been left to resolve itself. This ‘I don’t care’ attitude of the government has given rise to a general feeling of disenchantment, and the masses have withdrawn their loyalty to the government. This reminds me of Mark Twain’s assertion: “Loyalty to the nation all the time. Loyalty to the government when it deserves it.”  It is a well-known fact the present government has lost many loyalists as a result of its poor performance which the authorities still don’t acknowledge in order to redress the situation.

    In northern Nigeria where the rate of poverty is higher than southern Nigeria, many youths are vulnerable to the activities of brutal gunmen. They find it very convenient to lure the unemployed ravaged by inflation to sustain their terror acts to the next level. It has been observed that not long after the closure of land borders in northern Nigeria, insecurity started gaining ground because poverty is the twin brother to insecurity. They can never be separated because they complement each other to make living very miserable for the populace. This symbiotic relationship, analysts argue, denied many youths their means of livelihood who engaged in economic activities around these border areas. They have been rendered jobless without any legitimate alternative. With soaring prices of goods, they are becoming poorer and poorer; and remember that a frustrated mind is indeed the devil’s workshop.

    Inflation is wearing two distinct faces. One face is very attractive and compassionate to the extremely rich and the other horrible and hostile to the masses. Undoubtedly, inflation is a notorious symptom of capitalist ideology that recognises capital accumulation. Since our inflation is fuelled by a capitalist approach, it does not reflect compassion.

    Capitalism has three evils, according to analysts. But the most dangerous amongst the three, which is winning in Nigeria, is popularly known and addressed as INEQUALITY. When inflation thrives in a capitalist setting, such as ours, the evil of inequality rears its ugly head, favouring those who are in the stronger bargaining position. And for the sake of emphasis, the northwest, which is the most dangerous region to live now in Nigeria, is characterised by inequality which has undergone several stages of transformation. We are now bitterly paying the exorbitant price of this social disaster.

    As a result of the persistent increase in food prices caused by border closure to boost food production, restrictions in the forex market and insecurity predominantly in the northeast states, the misery of the poor has heighted. The inflationary trend was further aggravated when the EndSARS protest against police brutality hindered and limited the movements of persons, and goods and services across most cities, in addition to rising cost of transportation. These are some of the factors that have taken us to where we are now, living with a little hope.

    The government has sanctioned currency devaluation to continue making life more difficult for Nigerians for its own economic reasons. Only last month, a Dollar was sold at more than 700 Naira! This is the worst performance of Naira in the history of Nigeria. But the government insists that it is spoiling our money to increase the balance of trade by improving competitiveness of domestic goods in foreign markets, making foreign goods less competitive in the domestic market by becoming more expensive.

    But let us face reality to avert economic chaos. In the history of currency devaluation, nine countries had to replace their currencies because they lost their purchasing power to the barest minimum. Such countries included the Weimar Republic, Hungary, Chile, Argentina, Angola and Zimbabwe. In fact, the currency depreciation of the Weimar Republic was so terrible that between 1921 and 1923, it caused internal political instability as well as misery for the general populace.

    If this currency depreciation persists, very soon our currency will also undergo a similar experience of currency replacement. As of now, the downfall of the Naira is an economic assault against ordinary Nigerians who live from hand to mouth.

    The earlier the government recognises inflation as a reckless vehicle that has the potency to complicate insecurity, the better for the nation because the government’s gains from inflation is the masses’ massive loss which has dire consequences.

    • Abdullahi, aaringim68@gmail.com

  • Ukraine: The great powers scramble for Africa

    Ukraine: The great powers scramble for Africa

    In the last few months, the continent of Africa has witnessed a flurry of diplomatic moves by Ukraine and a horde of great powers. The diplomatic hawking, which is evocative of the scramble for Africa during the colonial epoch, is all about the hegemonic struggle the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has spawned. Unlike the epochal colonial scramble, the current wave of scramble is aimed at capturing the hearts of African leaders by Ukraine and the great powers in their national interests.

    The Russian-Ukrainian hostilities had broken out in 2014 and had latently polarised the great powers into those in support of Russia’s stance and those in support of Ukraine which they perceived as a victim of Russian aggression. On February 24 this year, Russia announced it was carrying out a military operation in Ukraine aimed at demilitarisation and denazification of the country. This recent move has seen the USA and most of the Western European countries back Ukraine, and labelled Russia as the aggressor without paying a modicum of attention to the security concerns of Russia. The fact that in response to the Russian move, the USA and the West had slammed a litany of diplomatic and economic sanctions on Russia and also engaged in mobilising world opinion against it, could not but reawaken and deepen the rivalry between the East-West a la the cold war era.

    In mobilising world opinion against Russia amidst the slew of economic sanctions, Ukrainian allies, mainly the USA and the West, in March got the United Nations General Assembly to pass a resolution condemning Russia as the aggressor. A breakdown of the voting pattern on this resolution revealed that a total of 140 out of 190 states voted in favour of the resolution. While the majority of African states voted for the condemnation of Russia, a number of them abstained. In April also, another UNGA resolution was passed to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council with 17 abstentions. Of the abstentions, African states were in the majority. African states, in reality, have either been preaching the gospel of neutrality or keeping mute.

    Five major reasons account for this. One, the two countries involved in the conflict are trading partners of a good number of African states particularly in food items such as grains and also in fertiliser and iron and steel. Two, Russia is the bulwark of a number of African states. Three, many African states still cannot just forget the enviable role Russia played in their struggle against colonialism and racial discrimination perpetrated by the West. Four, the African perception that Africans should not be lured into a war that was instigated and is being promoted by the West and its military industrial complex for their hegemonic, economic and strategic interests. Five, to enable them broker peace between the warring parties.

    Read Also: Africa: Taking action to curb menace of transboundary diseases

    Yet, Ukraine and the Western powers have not relented in mounting pressure on Africa in order that their sanctions can have a crippling effect on Russia and also blackmail it into submission. As an attempt to dissuade Africans from softening on Russia, Ukraine and the West have portrayed Russia not just as the aggressor but also as the cause of the obstruction to world food supplies following Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea port. Russia has had to respond to these allegations to redeem its image, particularly among its African allies that depend on food imports from Russia and Ukraine.

    Hence the flurry of diplomatic gymnastics unleashed on Africa by Ukraine and the great powers, including Russia. Shortly after the April UNGA resolution, Ukraine sought to meet with African leaders to rally them around the Ukrainian cause. But African leaders bucked the move. Noticing this, France and Germany stepped in to secure AU leaders’ ears for President Volodoymyr Zelensky. When Zelensky eventually had a June 4 date for the video conference with the AU, it was a colossal failure as the conference was poorly attended. Only four African states attended out of 54!

    They were Senegal, Cote d’voire, Congo and Libya. Nonetheless, Zelensky still used the platform to solicit for Africa’s support. Zelensky continued his diplomatic evangelisation on the continent when on August 4, in a virtual meeting with African journalists, he preached the gospel of why Africa should isolate Russia and jettison neutrality. He said Russian president Valadimir Putin “is not a reliable partner in solving Africa’s problems, as he doesn’t truly believe in Africa.” He crusaded further, “Russia is not investing in African countries. That means Russia does not believe in you.” From all indications, this rhetoric seems not to have swayed African leaders yet.

    In May, German chancellor, Olaf Schulz made a 3-nation visit to Africa – Senegal, South Africa and Niger. Though disempowered and disrobed as a great power after WW 11, Germany today in all indices, is not a small fry in world political-economy. Apart from using the tour to refresh its economic, defence and strategic interests in those countries, it also sought to proselytise African leaders to support Ukraine.

    In order to decrescendo whatever impact western propaganda might have on Africans, Putin in July, despatched his tough-talking Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, to Africa on a 4-nation diplomatic tour to Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo Brazzaville. During the tour, he explained Russia’s operation in Ukraine and exonerated Russia as the sole cause of food shortages and high food prices globally. He, however, assured them that action would be taken to alleviate the challenge and also strengthen Russia’s defence and trade ties with the continent. He also spoke about the Russia-Africa Summit slated for October in Ethiopia. All along and even up till now, Russia seems to perceive Africa’s neutrality as tacit support for it.

    It is in realisation of this that France and the USA, almost falling over each other, joined in the scramble for the “African heart.” In the same month of July that the Russian foreign minister visited Africa, President Emmanuel Macron also embarked on a 3-nation visit to Africa—Cameroon, Benin Republic and Guinea Bissau. Apart from the Ukrainian issue, France is worried about the whittling down of its influence by Turkey, Russia and China in Africa. Chinese’s chequebook diplomacy has particularly been worrisome to France, Britain and USA. So, apart from drumming support for Ukraine, Macron also sought to reconnect with France’s hitherto impenetrable relations with its former colonies in Africa. To achieve this, France has also led the Food and Agriculture Resilience Mission (FARM) initiative.

    If other powers had been modest in standing up to Russia in Africa, America has not. Amidst the presence of the Russian foreign minister in Africa, President Joe Biden announced that the US ambassador to the UN, Linda Greenfield would visit Uganda and Ghana and he did so between August 4-6. Similarly, the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Michael Hammer visited Egypt and Ethiopia.

    The American diplomatic hawking on the continent was crowned with the 3-nation visit of the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. He visited South Africa, Uganda and Rwanda. During this visit, Blinken, in diplomatic savvy, deployed America’s soft power to sway Africans, saying “the US sees Africa’s 54 countries as equal partners in tackling global problems. He also hinted at the release of a new US policy on Africa and stressed America’s commitment to promoting democracy, human rights, the rule of law and good governance. To mitigate the soaring food prices, America has also given African states $1.3bn. The impact of all these on Africa’s neutrality is, however, yet to crystallise.

    In conclusion, it is most realistic for Africa to, in this conflict, maintain its neutral stance. If Ukraine has chosen to swallow something harder than unripe plantain; if America has chosen to carry its rituals beyond its own shrines, Africa should then be left to avoid thorns whenever and wherever it sees any.

    • Dr Adebisi writes from Joseph Ayo Babalola University, Ikeji-Arakeji, Osun State.