Category: Comments

  • Rising cases of child abuse in Nigeria

    Rising cases of child abuse in Nigeria

    By Hadiza Mohammed

    The case of one Stella Nwadigbo who physically abused a three-year old Master Abayomi Michael of Christ-Mitots Nursery and Primary School, Ikorodu, Lagos on January 8, for not being able to write his figures is trending. The viral video attracted public outcry and condemnation and consequently the Lagos State government swung into action evoking the child right law; arresting the culprit.

    What the woman did was not teaching or discipline but pure act of abuse and cruelty against an innocent child entrusted to her care, but I do not want to look at the case in isolation. The incident should not be treated in isolation since it reflects a deep anti-social culture endemic in our society. There are thousands of such child molestation and abuses going on in the country on daily bases. If there were no cameras and social media platforms, this cruel act against an innocent child would have gone unnoticed. UNICEF indicates that six out of every ten children in Nigeria experience one form of violence or another. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) periodic reports indicates that violence against children in Nigeria is on the increase. In June of 2024, there were thousands of cases out of which 1667 were about child abandonment.

    By definition, child abuse is violence against the child; seen as an act of physical maltreatment, sexual molestation or neglect of the child below 18 years of age by adults – parents, relations, teachers, caregivers and even strangers. And this act of abuse range from beating, child molestation, child-labour, neglect, child abandonment, child-marriage, child trafficking, and indecent exposure, exposure to pornography, exploitation, and pedophilia.

    As stated earlier, reports from different agencies and human rights groups indicate that child abuse is on the increase in Nigeria despite the existence of Child Rights Act. This is due mainly to the wrong cultural habit that tends to see beating and corporal punishment as a way of enforcing discipline in children, the ignorance of the extant law on child abuse, the inadequate reporting of the cases of child abuse, the fear of the social stigma associated with reporting such cases and the non-enforcement of the child right law in the country. There are no exceptions but those mostly at risk of abuse are those from poor homes and those whose parents are too busy to pay deserved attention to them.

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    The effects of child abuse on the child include but not limited to the following: deteriorating health challenges, anxiety and depression, difficulty in learning and concentration, post-traumatic stress disorder, lack of emotional development, poor self-esteem, recurring nightmares, withdrawal from friends or usual activities, changes in behaviour such as aggression, anger, hostility etc., substance abuse, self-harm or suicidal thoughts or attempts etcetera.

    Clearly, the debilitating effects of child abuse on the child and the society at large cannot be over-emphasized. The World Health Organization (WHO) states that: “consequences of child maltreatment include impaired life-long physical and mental health, and the social and occupational outcomes can ultimately slow a country’s economic and social development.”

    On the physical side, child abuse may lead to premature death, physical disability, learning disorder, substance abuse or complicated health challenges. Other effects include, eating disorder, personality disorder, behaviour disorder, depression, anxiety disorder. Emotionally, an abused child could develop low self-esteem, difficulty in establishing and maintaining relationships, acceptance of violence as a way of life, illegal or violent behaviors, abuse of others, limited social and relationship skills.

    A frequently abused child may grow into social misfit.

    In the light of this, it therefore necessary to curtail this ugly trend of child abuse. And the first step should to the prevention of the child maltreatment should begin with the acknowledgement of the right of the child as a member of the society. The child right convention recognizes the inalienable rights of the child as the future of the human society. UNICEF says that: “the convention on the rights of the child sets out the rights that must be realized for children to develop to their full potential…The convention recognizes the fundamental human dignity of all children and the urgency of ensuring their well-being and development. It makes clear the idea that a basic quality of life should be the right of all children rather than a privilege enjoyed by a few.”

    The federal government has a critical role to play in protecting the right of the child. The government should provide the things needed for the growth and the care of the child. Sometimes, parents are distracted by the economic burden of fending for the child. The laws to protect the child should be made and enforced as appropriate. Offenders should be punished according to the law as a deterrent to others. Child right should be incorporated into the school curriculum to enlighten the child and their trainers.

    Parents on the other hands, should be vigilant to monitor and guide their children, pay attention to needs of the child, teach the child how to stay safe and behave before strangers.

    School proprietors should be aware of their responsibilities and should educate their employees on the rights of the child and should properly attend to the welfare of their employees.

    What could have made the 45-year old teacher maltreat an innocent toddler like Master Abayomi? Could it be frustration? Teachers should be properly trained. But, I am of the view that teaching and child care are more of a vocation than a profession. It should be for the people with the natural aptitude and passion. But in our society today, many people are in the wrong places because of unemployment and poor government policy initiatives. Effective supervision and monitoring are required to check child abuse and bullying in our schools.

    Indeed, child right protection is everybody’s business, not for the supposed social crusaders alone, just as it is said in our local parlance that no one person can train a child. Everybody should speak up against child abuse and report every case accordingly. Enforcement of the right of the child should not just be seen as a legal but moral obligation by all.

    Children are vulnerable group in the society therefore any act of violence against them threatens their immediate well-being and compromise their future potentials and overall peace and security of the country.

    •Hajia Mohammed, an actress, social activist and politician writes from London, UK.

  • 2024: Nigerian Navy’s year of fair winds

    2024: Nigerian Navy’s year of fair winds

    • By Musa Ilallah

    The Nigerian Navy ended 2024 on a triumphant note across its famed “trinity of action” – of surveillance, response capability and law enforcement, under the leadership of Vice Admiral Emmanuel Ikechukwu Ogalla, the Chief of Naval Staff.  On January 6, the Navy’s landmark anti-oil-theft operation, Delta Sanity, celebrated its first anniversary. A week earlier, Ogalla and the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Hieneken Lokpobiri launched the operation’s second phase, which featured ramped-up aerial surveillance, through Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Armed Attack Drones.

    In the 12 months since the launch of Operation Delta Sanity I, Nigeria has seen the intensification of deterrence efforts, arrests, and seizures of stolen products, translating into a noticeable rise in oil production levels, as well as the increasing confidence of operators in the onshore and shallow-water areas most affected by vandalization and theft. 

     In 2024, Delta Sanity resulted in the arrest of a total of 215 suspects and 26 vessels, and the deactivation of 468 Illegal Refinery Sites, 361 wooden boats, and over a thousand dugout pits. Additionally, an estimated 6.5 million litres of stolen crude oil and 7 million litres of illegally refined diesel were recovered. 

    Coming at a time when there is increasing interest in these production areas by Nigeria’s independent oil companies, these successes are very welcome and encouraging.

     In 2024, the Tinubu administration approved the transfer of about five sets of onshore/shallow-water oil blocks from IOCs to local independents, who are very bullish with regards to maximizing the production potential of these blocks.

    What better legacy to bequeath to them, at this time, than an increased assurance of security from maritime thieves and vandals? Pursuing the vision of a well-equipped maritime force, the Navy in 2024 commissioned three new warships: NNS OCHUZOR, a 35-meter Hydrographic Survey Vessel, and two 32-meter Seaward Defence Boats (NNS ZUR and NNS CHALAWA).

    In addition, three new helicopters joined the naval fleet during the year, boosting operational capacity for search and rescue, reconnaissance, among others. There was also the launching ceremony for the second of two 76-meter Offshore Patrol Vessels being constructed for the Nigerian Navy at the Dearsan Shipyard in Turkey, naval infrastructure, a critical element for maintaining morale and operational effectiveness, received the necessary focus during the year, with the completion and commissioning of several projects across the country, ranging from operational buildings to new accommodation for officers and ratings.

    At the permanent site of the new Forward Operating Base (FOB) Lekki, one of the Navy’s newest bases, construction is advancing impressively. Host communities were not left out, with various impactful interventions targeted at them, including an electrification project in a community in Niger State that has been without electricity for more than 30 years. 

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     Nigeria’s security leadership role in the Gulf of Guinea continued, with the hosting of the 8th Symposium of Heads of Navies and Coastguards of the Gulf of Guinea region in Abuja in November, and the CNS’ prominent participation in the 5th Seapower for Africa Symposium in Cape Town, South Africa (where he delivered the closing remarks), and the 14th Trans-Regional Seapower Symposium in Venice, Italy.

     In October, the Naval Dockyard Limited completed work on the first of six warships handed over to it in March for repair and refurbishment by the Benin Republic Navy – a move that highlights the growing technical capabilities of the Nigerian Navy and its readiness to support the navies of other countries.

    It is worthy of note that the Naval Dockyard is a full-service shipyard setting and maintaining a continental benchmark.

     During the year 2024, the Nigerian Navy turned 68 and hosted an International Maritime Conference around the theme of “Promoting the Blue Economy in Africa through International Cooperation on Maritime Security.” Alongside this conference was a regional maritime exercise, “Abo-Okun” that brought together navies from across the world, including China, Brazil, and neighbouring countries. 

    The Navy’s CNS Spikers men’s volleyball team won the 2024 Comptroller-General of Customs (CGC) Volleyball Premier League title, with its captain, bagging the Most Valuable Player award.

    The female team came second in the Premier League category.

     The Spikers have had a most incredible run since they were established in 2021 and have under Vice Admiral Ogalla’s leadership maintained their excellent performance. 

     In line with tradition, December saw the promotion of 146 senior officers – 24 Commodores to Rear Admiral, 26 Captains to Commodore, and 96 Commanders to the rank of Captain. One of the saddest moments of the year was the death of Lieutenant Commander Gideon Yashim Gwaza, a hero who tragically passed away in July while leading a rescue mission that succeeded in saving the lives of all 59 crew members on a sinking dredging vessel.

    It was a very moving moment at the funeral when the Chief of Naval Staff took the stage to comfort the family and assure them of the Navy’s unwavering support.

    The final weeks of 2024 also ushered in a new year for the CNS, who turned 56 on December 20.

     A fitting year-ending celebration for a fine military officer who finished as the best graduating student in the sciences from the prestigious Nigerian Military School (NMS), Zaria, in 1987, and repeated this feat five years later as the best graduating naval cadet in academics, military training, leadership and character, at the Nigerian Defence Academy, Kaduna. 

     Earlier, on the last day of October, Ogalla had the honour of delivering the Distinguished Annual Public Lecture – “Safeguarding Nigeria’s Blue Economy Potentials: The Role of the Nigerian Navy” – at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, highlighting the significant efforts of the Nigerian Navy in supporting the vision of Nigeria as a global blue economy giant. 

     It was a moment of poignant significance – the return to campus of someone who, almost 40 years earlier, was a teenager weighing a UNN admission offer to study medicine.

    He ended up choosing a different path that took him into the hallowed corridors of the Nigerian Defence Academy, and has now led all the way to the highest naval office in what is now shaping up to be the most powerful navy on the African continent.

    • Ilallah is a public affairs analyst. He can be reached on musahk123

  • Of Africa and Abu Dhabi trade relations

    Of Africa and Abu Dhabi trade relations

    • By Felix Oladeji

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is currently participating in the 2025 edition of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week. As global focus shifts towards emerging economies, Africa is coming into the limelight as a key investment destination with ambitious potential. Being home to the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population that is forecast to almost double to 2.5 billion people by 2050, it represents the last remaining frontier market in terms of dynamism and growth, and its importance continues to rise for other countries, with the UAE being no exception.

    The UAE-Africa economic partnership, shaped by geographical proximity, continues to grow, with the UAE having invested nearly $60 billion in the continent over the last decade. A key pillar of this economic relationship is trade, with Africa fast emerging as one of the UAE’s key markets. These trade ties are driven by mutual economic interests and strategic collaboration, reflecting both regions’ desire for economic growth and diversification.

    During the past decade, the value of imports and exports between UAE and sub-Saharan Africa alone has increased by over 30%, with the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) expected to accelerate this trend with the creation of a single unified market. Within this landscape of increased ties with Africa, the UAE aims to conclude more Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) with countries in the continent. It has already completed talks with Kenya, Mauritius and the Republic of Congo, increasing access to the African market.

    The UAE’s interest in East Africa has also increased as it seeks to establish commercial ties and ensure access across the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. Additionally, the UAE has strategic interests in East Africa’s maritime and food security, as well as in its mineral resources.

    Trade between the UAE and Africa has steadily increased over the years, with the total trade volume between the UAE and just six non-Arab African countries (Angola, Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa and Tanzania) crossing $8 billion in 2020. While South Africa has historically been the UAE’s most important trading partner, other countries in the continent are now gaining importance. Nigeria is one example, featuring prominently as a destination for UAE exports and re-exports. Tanzania has also risen to prominence, with trade between the two countries having increased to USD 1.2 billion in 2020.

    Trade between the UAE and the countries within the COMESA economic bloc has been growing in recent times. COMESA, the largest economic bloc in Africa, comprises 19 member states, including Burundi, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Eswatini, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The COMESA market is projected to become one of the most lucrative in Africa, with an estimated 600 million consumers by 2025. In 2019, UAE’s total trade with COMESA countries amounted to $47 billion (exports and imports). In 2022, the UAE was COMESA’s third largest export destination after China and Italy, with exports amounting to $17.6 billion, while imports from the UAE were even greater that year, reaching $21.6 billion.

    The UAE aims to gain a large share of Africa’s resources, including oil and gas, mining, and agriculture. It also wants to consolidate its strong presence in transport infrastructure and logistics services while expanding into renewable energy, digital infrastructure, manufacturing ventures, and financial services. In the transport infrastructure and logistics services industry, the government of Dubai, in particular, has actively partnered with many African countries, with Dubai World having around 30 investment projects across Africa.

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    These include marine terminals in Djibouti, Algeria, Dakar (Senegal) and Maputo (Mozambique), wildlife reserves in Rwanda and South Africa, and a hotel project on the Comoros Island.

    The UAE has significant investments in Africa’s mining sector. The country has invested substantially in copper-rich Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). While other Gulf countries have expressed interest in investing in the continent’s critical minerals industry, the UAE has been the first to actually acquire African mines. In 2022, the UAE and the Democratic Republic of the Congo formed a joint venture named Primera Gold, with the UAE holding a 55% stake and the DRC holding 45%. Within only 45 days, this venture successfully exported 207 kg of gold from the DRC to the UAE.

    In March 2024, International Holding Company, an Emirati company, purchased a 51% stake in Zambia’s Mopani Copper Mines through its mining arm, International Resources Holding (IRH). The deal was closed for $1.1 billion. IRH has also made a bid for the Lubambe Copper Mine in Zambia. Ultimately, this is leading to more investment opportunities in Zambia and the continent, with the possibility of investing in other energy transition metals, including cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite and the 3T minerals – tin, tungsten and tantalum.

    In East Africa, which has a market of over 300 million people and a total GDP of over $300 billion, Kenya offers opportunities for investment in the agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and energy sectors. The country is a leading producer of agricultural products such as tea, coffee, fruits and vegetables. Within the agriculture sector, there is room for value addition, agro-processing, irrigation, and mechanization. Value addition can come through increased yields so that agricultural output matches that of global peers.

    Kenya also offers opportunities in the technology sector, being a leader in innovation in Africa, and houses a dynamic start-up ecosystem and a sound digital infrastructure. The technology sector in Africa itself presents significant investment opportunities, with over a six-fold increase recorded in start-up funding over five years, with technology start-ups raising a record $5 billion in 2021. However, the total investment is still less than 1% of what US-based start-ups managed to raise during the same period, This emphasizes an investment funding gap that can be addressed by investors in the UAE and the wider Middle East.

    Africa faces significant challenges in terms of digital development, including underdeveloped digital infrastructure and a lack of accessible and affordable connectivity. These challenges, in turn, present opportunities for investment in digital transformation, with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) estimating that over 600,000 formal businesses and 40 million microenterprises could benefit from technological advancement. The annual investment needs for infrastructure and digital transformation of businesses are expected to be around $6 billion and $2.7 billion respectively.

    Over the past few years, Africa has seen more rapid expansion in digital infrastructure than any other region. Between 2010 and 2022, the international internet bandwidth utilized, which reflects the capacity of submarine cables, increased by approximately 50 percent annually. Despite this, an estimated investment of $21-32 billion in middle- and last-mile digital infrastructure is required to enhance access to high-speed internet and capitalize on the anticipated expansion of submarine cables by 2027.

    The agriculture sector also presents economic collaboration opportunities for the UAE and Africa, with the former likely to benefit from synergies with African countries to further its food security goal. In this regard, the UAE is in the process of closing several land acquisition deals in Africa, which possesses the majority of the world’s unused agricultural land. In July last year, Dubai Investments and E20 Investment, an agribusiness investment firm based in Abu Dhabi, signed an agreement to develop a large plot of land in Angola. The partners plan to produce 28,000 tonnes of rice and 5,500 tonnes of avocados over the next 18 months on the land, which is equivalent in size to 9,300 football fields. Al Dahra, an Emirati agribusiness firm, has also been negotiating with Egypt to purchase or lease land in Toshka under a long-term agreement aimed at cultivating staple grain crops.

    Regionally, Western Africa offers the largest market sizes for Renewable Resources and Alternative Energy opportunities, exceeding $1 billion. In order to overcome investment challenges in Africa, public-private partnerships (PPPs) need to be established. This is particularly important when addressing supply chain risks, which affect 28% of investment opportunities in Africa. Many African governments are struggling to bridge the energy infrastructure gap due to increasingly constrained fiscal capacities.

    The COVID-19 pandemic, combined with the conflict in Ukraine, has further impeded their ability to finance infrastructure amidst rapidly escalating debt levels. In sub-Saharan Africa, the average debt ratio has markedly increased over the past decade, rising from 30% of GDP at the end of 2013 to nearly 60% by the end of 2022. As of 2022, over half of the low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa were at high risk of or already experiencing debt distress. Consequently, with Africa’s estimated annual energy infrastructure needs reaching up to $170 billion, PPPs are emerging as a vital resource for governments to advance their energy sectors.

    Looking ahead, Africa’s ongoing digitalization offers a wide range of investment opportunities for both the public and private sectors. The continent also presents investment opportunities in the agriculture and energy sector, with renewables being the focus in the latter. Given that food security is high on the UAE’s political agenda, investments in Africa’s agriculture sector remain an area of priority.

    The demands of the future require continued strategic investments in the continent, which will serve both the regions. Africa stands at the threshold of unprecedented growth and development, offering a wealth of investment opportunities across various sectors. For businesses and policymakers, now is the time to seize these emerging prospects to drive economic progress and foster sustainable development in the continent.

    •Oladeji writes from Lagos.

  • How soldiers’ involvement in civilian affairs undermines civil-military relations

    How soldiers’ involvement in civilian affairs undermines civil-military relations

    • By Lekan Olayiwola

    The trend of using military personnel to supervise or protect construction sites in some residential areas in Lagos State is very worrisome. It is an aberration to say the least. Civil contractors wishing to protect themselves, their assets, personnel or project sites from the harassment of thugs increasingly hire soldiers and station them permanently on the construction sites as guards. In fact, it would appear that a whole battalion is deployed as a full complement of ranking officers of the rank of colonels and other ranks seem to be involved in the parade. In trying to solve one social problem, these civil contractors and their military patrons end up creating another social problem, one that borders on human security.

    Why engage the military in the protection of non-sensitive public infrastructure like a trunk B or C road which is under construction? Why not use the police or the Nigerian Civil Defence Corps that are more appropriate to the situation?

    One school of thought believes that street urchins do not fear the police, much less the Nigrrian Civil Defence Corps that now bear arms also. But they hardly would dare the military.

    Rather than paying compliment to the army, this disposition is an indictment on the policing structure and architecture in Nigeria. How is it that it is easy for civilians to engage the Nigerian armed forces for civil policing job to the extent that soldiers become agents of brutality and insecurity in our communities? Is this part of their constitutional role?

    This article arose from the grief I felt from reports on how soldiers brutalise and extort money from civilians in my neighbourhood in the name of guarding road construction works in the area. The soldiers have turned the area into a police territory and also assumed the job of policing and adjudicating on crime and conflicts amongst residents. Their nefarious activities are reported on almost a daily basis and it saddens me to note that those who are supposed to give citizens a sense of security are the very ones who have turned themselves into a serious threat to human security in the society. I heard of one case in which a man was accused of theft by his neighbours; the soldiers tortured the suspect by standing right on his chest and inserting the nozzle of a riffle right into his anus. I learnt his bloodied body was later handed over to the police area command in an unconscious state.

    There was another instance of how the soldiers caught some street urchins who had mounted a road block on an alternative route in order to extort money from motorists. The soldiers on guard duty in the area proceeded to torture them to the point that the rib of one of them got broken in the process.  There was yet another case where the soldiers caught two youthful residents fighting over a girlfriend and stripped them almost naked before subjecting them to serious flogging across the chest with electrical cables. They had asked the brawling duo to lie on their back in the very dusty road under construction with face toward the blinding ray of the sun. The young girl who was the cause of the dispute was not spared the corporal punishment either. Each of them were reportedly forced to part with N2,000 to secure their release.

    On many occasions, the soldiers on duty would arrest commercial motorcyclists and tricycle riders plying the yet to be completed roads, seize their vehicles and demand hefty amounts of money (minimum N10,000 ) before releasing them again. When a supposed traffic offender was caught commuting on the yet to be finished road, the soldiers would arrest them, seize their vehicle and demand a bribe before releasing them. If the offender pleaded to be let off for a lesser amount of money than demanded, the soldiers threatened to drag him to their senior commander where he would have to pay a higher sum. Fearing such prospect, the hapless victim was forced to part with an amount he could ill afford. And yes, any attempt to make the payment using electronic transfer was rejected. All the illegal charges, (more accurately, extortions) must be paid in cash apparently in order not leave any traces or evidence that could bring trouble later if the victims chose to pursue redress.

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    The soldiers were perceived as agents of terrorism in the eyes of the residents who were forced to live in fear. The relationship between the civilians and the military was not that of respect, but of anxiety, fear and resentment. Of course, because the soldiers were permanently stationed in the area, some semblance of relationship seemed to exist between them and some of the residents, especially shopkeepers whose shops sometimes provided shade from the scorching heat of the sun and a place to buy food, drinks and other personal effects. But it was an anxious relationship brokered with the barrel of the gun.

    The people tried to avoid the soldiers like a dreaded disease. Sighting a soldier sitting in a shed or standing around a street corner did not project to the people a sense of their own security. Rather, it reminded the “bloody” civilians of their own vulnerability. And it appeared that the soldiers themselves relished the perception of being feared; like the Roman emperor Nero, they didn’t seem to care very much whether they are loved by the people as long as they were feared by the very people they were being paid to protect! The cases cited above were recorded in just one community. There were other similar reports or worse from other areas.

    The net effect of allowing the military to be used in this manner is that it further erodes whatever respect and confidence that the citizens still have in the Nigerian military as an agency of state 24 odd years after the last military dictatorship relinquished power to the civilian leaders of the country in 1999. With the way the military is getting deeply involved in civilian affairs, howbeit with debilitating impact, one would ask whether we are not returning to a police state. This is not good for the already strained military-civil relations.

    The current brass of military authorities seem to be working tirelessly to bring the nation back from the brink of collapse at the hands of bandits and terrorists threatening the security of the nation. Their efforts should not be sabotaged by the unprofessional and unconstitutional use of the military in civilian affairs. In the fight against insurgency, the military relies on information flow from the residents in conflicted areas. But if trust and respect which a good civil-military relationship relies upon is undermined in the way and manner described above, the people would be less inclined to relate with, let alone share information with soldiers who are perceived as hostile, brutal and extortionate.

    The military should not allow itself to be dragged into the routine task of community policing. At least, they should be wary of descending into such barbaric acts mentioned in this article. While appreciating their sacrifice in safeguarding the nation, especially from internal rebellion at this time, the activities of common thugs do not require the deployment of detachments of gun totting soldiers. The already tenuous relationship between civilians and the military should not be further eroded by the indiscriminate and undisciplined use of military personnel in civil society.

    •Olayiwola is a peace and conflict researcher and practitioner.

  • Trump and Africa: The next four years

    Trump and Africa: The next four years

    By Alade Fawole

    With the certification by Congress of his electoral victory, it is certain that Donald J. Trump will assume the presidency of the US for a second, non-consecutive tenure on January 20. Many are already gazing into the crystal ball to see what the second tenure of this mercurial personality and unusual politician holds for the world. I claim neither the power of clairvoyance nor a crystal ball to see into the future and decipher what his tenure promises. This is merely an exercise in intelligent speculation, postulation or prediction, a routine pastime of scholars. The implication of course is that as predictions go, they do not have to be right, but it would be a delight even if just a handful of my predictions are proven to be correct at the end of his four-year tenure.

    A few observations are however pertinent at the outset.

     The first one is that the global world has changed dramatically and irreversibly since Trump left the White House in January 2021. Tremendous geopolitical shifts have occurred and in such a manner that challenges America’s global dominance in Europe, Asia, and even here in Africa. The Russia-Ukraine war has severely tested Western unity, resolve and military capability; the massive Western economic and other sanctions imposed on Russia have backfired so spectacularly that it is the European economies rather than Russia’s that have been hardest hit, while the war has rejuvenated Russia’s military power through rapid industrial production. In the process, Ukraine has become a pathetic shell of its once vibrant self, and the geopolitical map of Europe has altered significantly in Russia’s favour, at least for now. This is the reality the new Trump administration would have to reckon with. Situation in the Middle East is fluid, unpredictable, with the influence of other outside powers such as Russia, Russia and Turkey, provoking tectonic shifts at such an alarming speed; both the US and Israel are derided globally because of their deliberate subversion of and trampling upon international law and civilized norms, and the US even much more derided because of its hypocrisy.

    In Asia, geopolitical rivalries with China increasingly favour the latter, whilst North Korea remains the principal enfant terrible in the Korean Peninsula. Though Latin America remains Washington’s unchallenged sphere of influence, but stirrings of dissent remain in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and increasingly even in Argentina.

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     Africa, where more and more states are discovering the courage to assert their sovereignty, by opposing the basing of foreign military forces on their soil, is my focus here.

     Nobody in my view should be starry-eyed about US-Africa relations under Trump. Simple reason: all US presidents are the same, no matter the person or their political party, and America’s national interests drive their foreign policies. Even Barack Obama, though strongly related to Africa by blood from his Kenyan father, was no different while in the White House, and Africans must still hold him responsible for his deliberate and wilful destabilization of Libya, the callous murder of Muammar Gaddafi, and the eventual descent of that country into violence and balkanization under three separate warlords. Libya is a basket case today, its destruction and arms looted form its armouries are fuelling jihadist terrorism and insurgencies across the Sahara-Sahel region, all courtesy of Barack Obama!

     I do not expect any goodies for Africa under the Trump presidency, except may be some tokenistic concessions to a few of the “shitholes” therein for purely transactional reasons. The core objective of Trump’s presidency is to make America great again by whatever means necessary, the implication being that he would not hesitate to trample upon the rights and interests of other countries and peoples. He has recently at a news conference in his Mar-a-Largo redoubt openly threatened to repossess the Panama Canal from Panama, and take over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a fellow NATO member state, by force if necessary. He considers these moves required for America’s national security, caring little about the sovereign rights of those concerned.

    As it is, Africa is endowed with vital mineral resources that America badly covets, and would stop at nothing to secure access to them, include staving off other competing powers. That, without prejudice to whoever occupies the White House at any point in time, has been America’s fundamental interest in and the sole preoccupation of its Africa policy since the early 1960s. Not minding who the president is, the US foreign policy and national security establishment is an immensely powerful, permanent bureaucracy, complemented by sundry think tanks, consultants, academics, policy research institutes, members of Congress, lobbyists, special interest groups (such as big pharmaceutical firms, major armament manufacturers, oil multinationals), euphemistically called the “Deep State” that firmly ensures that no White House occupant strays from America’s fundamental objectives of resource appropriation (by force if need be) and the pursuit of global hegemony and empire-building.

    America’s principal interest in Africa is to control access to the vast hydrocarbon resources of the Gulf of Guinea and other strategic natural resources available across the continent. Not this alone, the continent is also a vast arena of geopolitical competition with other great powers like China, Russia, India, so it isn’t African interests that is Washington’s concern but securing its hegemonic foothold in the competition. Let’s not forget that it was Donald Trump who, during his first presidency, donated the sovereign state of Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (formerly Western Sahara), and full member state of the African Union, to Morocco! Morocco, a fellow African Union member state, has held on illegally to portions of that resource-endowed country. Again, outgoing President Biden had vowed to counter China in Africa and curtail what its terms ‘malign Russian activities’ as well, evidence that Trump, the man who loves to portray and project power, would do no less.

    Will Africa be immunized from Trump’s threat to punish the BRICS+ nations by imposing 100 percent tariffs on them if they ever attempt de-dollarizing their international trade and seeking alternative payment platforms against the US-controlled SWIFT? The answer should definitely be a resounding No! African countries are particularly vulnerable to economic sanctions because they are largely producers of primary commodities whose prices they do not control; dependent on the West mostly for their imports, and critically beholden to Western-controlled international financial institutions and multinational banks that had cleverly sucked them into a vicious international debt peonage.

    His second and final term will end, hopefully, four years from now in 2029. That’s when we can do a thorough post mortem examination to find out if my scepticisms and misgivings are right or wrong. That means I have four years of respite before I can be justly castigated for my views and predictions. But as I made clear above, I’m not afraid to be wrong. If anything, I would love to be proved wrong: that Trump might actually turn a new leaf and behave more like a global statesman rather than the divisive, uncaring transactional bully he is known to be. He can still make America great not necessarily by ruthlessness and insensitivity but by striving to make the world safe for all, and for America to thrive in it.

    •Prof Fawole writes from Ikire, Osun State.

  • Baby and the beast

    Baby and the beast

    Ray Ekpu

    The story is available in the traditional and social media because it is an oddity. A 45-year old woman is seen on a video slapping a three-year old baby in a primary school in the Ikorodu area of Lagos State. The baby is a pupil and the woman is the baby’s teacher who should take motherly care of the baby but she is rather behaving like a beast. At 45 years, that woman is old enough to be not only the baby’s mother but possibly the baby’s grandmother. There is no indication whether the woman is married or not. There is also no indication that if she is married whether she has children or not. What we know is that the baby is her pupil surrendered to her to take good care of her and help groom her to become Nigeria’s successful citizen. She is a deputy mother to the baby as she is to all the kids in her class but she is not playing the role of a mother. She is rather playing the indecent role of a beast, a brute, a barbarian, a caregiver who is paid to give care to an innocent child but who, instead, prefers to dehumanize the baby.

    If care is not taken, if nothing is done to restore the baby’s sense of normalcy, the baby is likely to think that a school is not a place to go to because that is a place where children are badly treated instead of being lovingly treated.

    The woman has been arrested, taken to court and she has been remanded in a correctional centre. Anyone who has interacted with a three-year old baby knows that the baby does no harm to anybody, not to his/her parents, not to his/her teacher. She is just behaving like a baby who by her age needs to be taken care of, monitored, guided, guarded and groomed to grow into a good and decent human being.

    The woman, Stella Nwadigbo apparently thought that no one was seeing what she was doing to the baby. She forgot that civilization is here and that walls now have ears and eyes and that they see and hear what people do in secret. That ensures that what people think are secret may not be secret at the end of the day. In the past, a lot of these nasty things had been done without disclosure or full disclosure.

    The World Health Organisation (WHO) states that up to one billion children aged 2-17 years have experienced physical, sexual or emotional violence in the past year. Apparently a lot of people who read the Bible depend on it for guidance on how to treat children. There are a few quotations in the Book of Proverbs that indicate that children can be physically assaulted. One of them is found in Proverbs 22:5. It sates: “Foolishness is bound in the heart of a child but the rod of correction shall drive it from him.” This is reinforced in Proverbs 23: 12-14 where it is stated “Withhold not correction from the child, for if thou beatest him with a rod, thou shall deliver his soul from hell.”

    These provisions were written in ancient times namely that if you spare the rod, whether as a parent or a teacher, you are likely to spoil the child. But human rights organisations were not available in those days. Now the influence of human rights organisations and medical outfits has taught us that the world is no longer ready to accept “inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.” A study done by Harvard University researchers has indicated that corporal punishment like spanking could affect the brain development of children. Corporal punishment is also associated with physical injury and abuse; it is said to reduce cognitive abilities and IQ scores and to eventually lead to mental problems including depression and anxiety as well as increase adult aggression and anti-social behaviour.

    As at today, at least 67 countries have prohibited corporal punishment of children globally. They cannot all be wrong. That is why United Nations organs are getting worried about gender based violence (GBV) which leads to injuries which may affect the brain or the nervous system. For a country like Nigeria that has not yet been able to overcome basic primary health issues, there ought to be a serious concern about health complications that can come from corporal punishment of children.

    A group of 10 international agencies under the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) leadership has developed seven strategies for ending violence against children. These strategies are cobbled together under an acronym called INSPIRE.

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    Even though Nigeria has the Child rights law, the Nigerian child, as we can see from several videos and publications that come to our attention, is still very badly treated by either parents or teachers or peers or even strangers. A lot more needs to be done to protect the Nigerian child from cruel and wicked adults who are supposed to take care of them.

    Corporal punishment in schools has been banned in many countries such as Canada, New Zealand, Kenya and South Africa but it remains legal in many African countries including Nigeria. People only get arrested on issues of corporal punishment in Nigeria when, as in the case under review, a minor is involved or a serious injury is recorded. But as a country we have to do better than that. We have to get our name into the roll call of civilised nations; nations that treat their citizens decently, respectfully as human beings. The most notable state government in Nigeria which, de jure and de facto, seeks to protect the dignity and decency of its inhabitants is the Lagos State government. It stands guard over the welfare of even young people who are badly treated by their parents on religious or other grounds. It is the only state government, I think, that has legislation on noise pollution and arrests and gets tried people who seek to disrupt the peace of the public through excessive noise making. We are talking about a city where owambe parties used to be held regularly, public highways barricaded and people’s movement disrupted by party goers. A lot of that has changed and the city has got back a good chunk of its sanity, thanks to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu.

    As we watch the proceedings at the court where the 45-year old woman who assaulted her three-year old pupil is being tried, I urge legislators at the federal level to work on legislation that should ban corporal punishment in schools at all levels. It won’t hurt us if we join the league of civilised countries. Will it? It won’t.

  • Abiodun: Turning the Ogun economy around

    Abiodun: Turning the Ogun economy around

    By Kayode Akinmade

    Since assuming office as the fifth democratically elected Governor of Ogun State, Prince Dapo Abiodun, has not ceased marketing Ogun State as Nigeria’s investment destination of choice. As a visionary leader, Governor Abiodun is quite cognizant of the thinking that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is needed to ensure the job creation, capital accumulation and export growth required to tame extreme poverty. He subscribes to the view expressed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an international organisation that works to build better policies for better lives, that well-designed investment promotion and facilitation policies help to ensure that foreign investments support national development objectives and generate positive spill overs, including through linkages with local companies, the transfer of skills and technologies and the development of less developed regions.

    It is a no-brainer that investment promotion plays crucial roles in attracting foreign and domestic investment, contributing to a country’s economic growth and development. By being the chief salesman of Ogun State, Abiodun has his sights set on job creation, economic growth and infrastructure development. This is a sure path to improved living standards, technology transfer and economic diversification. It is no coincidence that Abiodun’s Gateway State has a huge IGR profile that marks it out as one of the few financially self-sufficient states in the country. Under Abiodun, Ogun is one of the states that investors have made a second home. It has Nigeria’s largest industrial layout, dotted with structures by manufacturers. Steadily, but surely, the Iperu-born prince is turning the Ogun economy around, making it a state with an enviable status. He has been able to create a climate that enhances the growth of industry, taking advantage of the state’s proximity to Lagos, and enhancing revenue generation. Ogun is one of the few states with revenue earnings in the region of N150bn annually, and that can conveniently pay salaries without federal support.

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    Intent on attracting investors, Abiodun has taken the building of road networks, federal, state or local, as an article of faith. Because Ogun has the highest number of federal roads in the country, sharing borders with the Republic of Benin, Abiodun has reinvented diplomacy to get the federal government to repair its many bad roads in the state, or to take over the repair outright. He has emplaced seamless registration of businesses, and is constantly on the road to attract investments into different sectors of the state’s economy. In April 2022, the Ogun State government signed a $400m MoU with a foreign firm, Arise Integrated Industrial Platform, on the development of Olokola Free Trade Zone and Remo Agro Processing Zone. Founder/CEO of the Platform, Gagan Gupta, indicated that the $400m would be for the completion of phase one of the projects, saying by July 2023, the investment would be higher.

    As Governor Abiodun said on the occasion, his administration at the inception had identified the comparative advantage of the state and set out to bring in more investors whose investments would not only enhance the socio-economic well-being of the people, but also retain the state’s position as the industrial capital of the country. He had added: “Ogun remains the safest state in the country due to the security architecture put in place, while over 400km of road had been constructed and various reforms and policies put in place to help improve the Ease of Doing Business ranking of the state.” In August of the same year, a steel conglomerate, African Industries Group, pledged to invest over $500m in the Ogun State economy, with the chairman of the group, Raj Gupta, saying: “I have to say I am very impressed so far with what we have seen as the progress made by the present administration.”

    Nigerians will recall that in May 2023, the Canadian Government indicated interest in investing in the agricultural and technological sectors of the Ogun economy to strengthen over 60 years of the bilateral relationship with Nigeria. The Canadian Ambassador to Nigeria, Jamie Christoff, speaking during a courtesy visit to the Governor’s Office, Oke-Mosan, Abeokuta, declared: “For us in Canada, we see potential interest in the sector of agriculture, clean technology.” In response, Governor Abiodun: “We have vast land and vast resources. We have many mineral resources from limestone, which is about two-thirds of our land, and others, including silica and huge forest reserves. All these make us the industrial capital of Nigeria as most companies have their financial headquarters in Lagos, while their major manufacturing factories are located in Ogun State.”

    In July 2024, the South Africa-Nigeria Business Chamber pledged to spearhead aggressive investment drive for Ogun State, funding series of investments to drive economic growth and development in the state. Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the South Africa-Nigeria Business Chamber, Diana Games, expressed the chamber’s readiness to partnering Ogun State in various sectors of economy, especially as it regards investments in agriculture, digital economy, agribusiness, solid minerals, emphasizing the state’s strategic positioning and manpower as key elements for potential investors. Said Games: “The wealth of opportunity in Ogun State is extraordinary. We are committed to supporting the State’s development ambitions, particularly in terms of funding investments that will drive economic growth and position Ogun State as a premier investment destination.”

    In August last year, the Nigerian Society of Engineers (NSE) expressed strong support for the $500 million investment by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to enhance power infrastructure in Ogun State. This investment focuses on strengthening the transmission network along the Lagos-Ogun Industrial corridor, particularly in the Agbara, Sagamu, and Mowe clusters, marking a critical milestone in addressing the persistent power challenges faced by industries and residents in the region.

    And keying into the investment ecology in the state, a Chinese company, Inner Galaxy Steel Company Limited, in October last year, announced a $300 million investment to establish a new steel plant for the production of specialised steel products in Ogun State. President of the Chinese company, Li Shuang, said that the plant would undertake the production of specialised steel products like plates, angles, beams, and stainless products, an investment was expected to increase the steel production output of the country, reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported specialised steel products and conserve scarce foreign exchange with attendant employment generation opportunities. This, he said, included 10,000 both direct and indirect employment along with other multiplier effects in the economy. It came as no surprise, then, when in the same month, Statisense, a pioneering AI data company, pointed attention to the $25 million FDI that the Abiodun’s administration had previously secured over the past year, listing Ogun State as one of the top five leading states in Nigeria for attracting significant foreign investments.

    Still in October 2024, the Ogun State Government announced the establishment of a $5 million battery recycling plant by a British company. Said Abiodun following a visit from the British High Commissioner, Richard Montgomery, to the state capital, Abeokuta: “We are pleased to announce the establishment of a $5 million British battery recycling company in @OGSG_Official, marking the first of its kind in Africa. This initiative, in collaboration with Ogun Invest and the Bureau of Lands, will bring cutting-edge technology and new job opportunities to our state, positioning Ogun as a leader in battery recycling across Africa. The plant will recycle e-waste, converting battery cells back into chemical form and exporting the minerals for new battery production.” Abiodun added that the UK had expressed further interest in investing in energy, technology, agriculture, and education.

    If the Gateway International Agro-Cargo Airport, the engineering masterpiece planted by the Abiodun administration in the Iperu-Ilishan axis of the state can be taken as a metaphor, it is an expression of the intent of the state under Abiodun to fly into above any obstacles a glorious dawn of prosperity. The airport, now licensed for non-scheduled flights, with scheduled flight approval expected soon, is a testament to Abiodun’s genius, as is the Kajola Dry Port whose construction will commence shortly, and which will complement the agro-cargo airport by receiving goods from the Apapa and Tincan ports.

    •Akinmade sent this piece through kayodeakinmade@gmail.com

  • Significance of President Tinubu’s Enugu visit

    Significance of President Tinubu’s Enugu visit

    By Tunde Rahman

     President Bola Tinubu’s one-day visit to the Southeast, his first of 2025, was not just a routine event. It was laden with symbolisms, from the enthusiastic reception to the subsequent positive comments. The import of this visit, with its many remarkable aspects, was not lost on anyone. While many have spoken favourably and commended the visit, it equally throws up some questions.

    Is President Tinubu’s January 4, visit to Enugu, the old capital of the Southeast region, during which he inaugurated Governor Peter Ndubuisi Mbah’s landmark projects and made important pronouncements a new level in his relationship with the Southeast geopolitical zone?

    Is the president’s visit across the Niger a game changer and a subtle indicator of what lies ahead between him and the people of the Southeast?

    The Southeast’s posture towards President Tinubu has not been enthusiastic, just as it was with President Muhammadu Buhari. Of course, the results of the 2015, 2019, and 2023 elections reveal the political aloofness of the zone towards the two leaders.

    The Southeast was particularly lukewarm towards Tinubu’s presidential aspiration following developments in the build-up to the 2023 presidential election and the results that had arisen from it. In the run-up to the election, the Southeast put all its political eggs in the basket of homeboy Peter Obi, former Anambra State governor, who had broken ranks with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party to emerge as the Labour Party’s presidential candidate.

    The boisterousness of the Obidients –as Peter Obi’s supporters had christened themselves – had somewhat captured the imagination of the Southeast. Any Igbo who sang a different tune in the 2023 election was, more or less, seen as an outcast.

    Peter Obi himself did not allow the kind of amity that should prevail. He campaigned based on his Igbo ethnicity and overtly promoted his Christian faith to reap electoral benefits. When the election came, the Igbo voted en masse for him, signposting a strong correlation between region, religion and elections in Nigeria.

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    As a geopolitical breakdown of the 2023 presidential election results shows, Obi and his LP polled 1,952, 998 votes from the five states of the Southeast, representing a massive 89.62% of the total votes in the region. President Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress polled 127,370 votes, a paltry 5.85% of the votes from the area while the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, got 90, 698 votes, amounting to a meagre 4.16%.

    Although Obi recorded impressive results outside the Southeast, like winning Lagos, Nasarawa, Edo, Delta, Plateau, Cross River, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, his 2023 presidential challenge was essentially a Southeast affair.

    After the election, he and his ethnic supporters remained in their cocoons—or the alternate reality they had built. They acted like Obi had won the poll but denied victory. It seemed that the Obidients would rather not hear the name Tinubu, let alone President Tinubu. This trend continued even after Obi’s petition against President Tinubu’s victory in court failed. Any move of the president was criticised and condemned.

    On assumption of office, President Tinubu made overtures to the zone in key appointments such as the appointment of Chief of Naval Staff, Rear Admiral Emmanuel Ikechukwu Ogalla, who hails from Enugu, and through key ministerial appointments like those of Minister of Works, Senator David Umahi from Ebonyi State, Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology, Hon. Uche Nnaji, and the first Minister of Trade and Investment, now Minister of State for Finance, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, among others.

    Remarkably, when the president reshuffled his cabinet in October last year, he brought in, among others, Ambassador Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, wife of the late Ikemba Nnewi, Chief Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu. She got the portfolio of Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. President Tinubu also established the Southeast Development Commission, a significant move to promote and accelerate the region’s development.

    A top journalist who is a friend from the Southeast zone and a staunch Obidient who had never masked his dislike for Tinubu said those two appointments were sufficient to forgive President Tinubu’s perceived sins against the Igbo.

    It was against that background that President Tinubu accepted Governor Mbah’s invitation to inaugurate some of his projects in the New Year.

    At the inauguration of Governor Mbah’s projects and during an interactive session with Southeast leaders, President Tinubu made significant statements that gladdened the hearts of the Igbo.

    At the inauguration of the Command and Control Centre, the President emphasised the importance of cooperation and collaboration between the federal government and the sub-nationals to drive development.

    “This (Command and Control Centre) is a profound demonstration of what we can do together. It reassures me that more revenue going to the sub nationals and local governments is not a waste; it is for development.

    “We have committed leaders like Peter Mbah taking Enugu on the path of 21st-century development, taking Enugu to greater heights, and building our tomorrow today.

    “I cannot forget the sight of those children I just met at the Smart Green School. I have seen the gadgets and vehicles with 21st-century technology. You are indeed working for today, tomorrow and the future.”

    The president inaugurated the GTC Smart Green School, New Haven/Bisalla Road, the International Conference Centre, the Command and Control Centre, and 150 patrol vehicles with surveillance cameras. He also inaugurated other notable projects virtually at the Enugu State Government House.

    Later, at an interactive session with Southeast leaders, President Tinubu promised that his administration would complete the Eastern Rail line connecting Port Harcourt to Maiduguri and support the development of the Anambra Basin as a significant energy reserve estimated to hold up to one billion barrels of oil and 30 billion cubic feet of gas. He made the commitment while responding to the requests made by former Minister of Power Professor Chinedu Nebo and an Enugu State indigene, Chris Ugoh, at the interactive session.

    After commending the Tinubu administration for completing the Port Harcourt to Aba section of the Eastern rail line, Nebo had appealed to the president to prioritise the completion of the remaining portions of the rail link to facilitate exports of non-oil products and catalyse development in the region.

    Dignitaries who attended the session included governors, traditional rulers, captains of industry, and serving and former presiding officers of the National Assembly from the zone, including former Senate President Ken Nnamani.

    With the Enugu visit and the importance he attached to the invitation by PDP Governor Mbah, President Tinubu demonstrated political maturity and his commitment to supporting developmental strides from any part of the country and by any governor or stakeholder. The visit was a bold testament to his nonpartisan inclination and willingness to put the country first. He was full of commendation for Governor Mbah for demonstrating “an irrevocable commitment to human development.”

    In the same vein, sighting Abia State Governor Alex Otti at the Enugu event, President Tinubu said: “I don’t care which party you come from; you are my friend. Alex Otti of Abia State is also doing very well. It is not about the differences in languages and place of birth.

    “None of us has control of the mother tongue. God created us, and you can find yourself in Enugu, Onitsha or Lagos. We are all members of one huge family called Nigeria, but we live in different rooms in the same house. We must build this house to satisfy our immediate and future needs.”

    Speaking before the inauguration of his projects, Governor Mbah had described President Tinubu as a true federalist committed to Nigeria’s development.

    “Your Excellency, your credential as a true federalist stands out brightly, and the legacies thereof will long earn you resounding accolades.

    “In signing the Electricity Act (Amendment) Bill, you liberalised electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. That singular act will consistently rank as an enduring legacy,” he said, adding: “It is noteworthy that Enugu State was the first sub-national to which the NERC ceded regulatory oversight of the local electricity market. That reflects how swiftly we are pursuing our goals.”

    On the Southeast Development Commission, the governor said the commission would address infrastructure and ecological challenges in the region while complementing the many development strides unfolding across the state.

    Development and governance may have been the overarching themes of the visit. Still, analysts reckon that given all that transpired during the visit, a new chapter in the relationship between President Tinubu and the Southeast geopolitical zone may have been unwittingly opened. This rapprochement, they observe, may signpost other important things to come for President Tinubu from the zone, particularly going into the next election in 2027.

    •Rahman is a Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media Matters.

  • What could go wrong in 2025?

    What could go wrong in 2025?

    • By Daniel Serwer

    The year promises to be a challenging one, both at home and abroad. I’ll leave the prognosticating inside the US to others. Abroad I expect the new Trump Administration to disappoint in many ways.

    Trumpians have already proposed to Russian President Putin an end to the Ukraine war along current confrontation lines. Ukraine would stay outside NATO for 20 years. The Europeans would monitor the ceasefire. But Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has labeled this generous armistice offer a non-starter. The Russians want all of Ukraine, not a piece of it. They want President Zelensky out and their own puppet in. And they want a permanent bar on NATO membership for Ukraine.

    It was of course a mistake for Trump to float a peace proposal even before taking power. That is by definition a moment of weakness. But Trump has never shown strength in dealing with Putin. His failure to support the Ukrainians will allow Russia to continue to gain territory. Unless Moscow suffers an economic or political collapse, the war will continue with Ukraine disadvantaged. Biden neglected to give Ukraine everything it wanted. Trump will refuse to give it everything it needs.

    Middle East

    That will have repercussions in other areas. Russia will retain its bases in Syria. It will use them to protect the Alawite-plurality west from alleged Damascus abuses. That will de facto partition Syria, just as Russian policy has de facto partitioned Ukraine. Trump will hesitate to lift sanctions on Syria, limiting the peace dividend to Syrians. He will withdraw the American troops, weakening the Kurds. More extreme armed groups in Syria will strengthen. Pro-democracy forces will weaken.

    Trump will support the expanded Israeli role in the region. This will include security control not only over the Gaza and the West Bank, but also Lebanon south of the Litani River, the Golan Heights, Jordan, and Sinai. Israel will involve the US in an attack on Iranian nuclear sites that will succeed in setting back the program. But it will also give Tehran reason to redouble its nuclear efforts.

    The Houthis will continue their attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. Intensified US and Israeli bombardment will fail to dislodge them from Sanaa.

    Balkans

    Russia’s success in Ukraine and Syria as well as Israel’s in neighboring countries will encourage irredentist ambitions in the Balkans. Serbia will continue to look for a pretext to move into northern Kosovo, claiming Serbs there are mistreated. If Belgrade invades, NATO troops would fail to repel the Serbian army. Albania would then propose a referendum on union with Kosovo. The net result would be ethnic cleansing of Serbs from Kosovo south of the Ibar and Albanians from southern Serbia. Republika Srpska would secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina, precipitating ethnic cleansing and split of the state into three parts.

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    China and Taiwan

    Under the influence of Elon Musk, Trump will allow Bytedance to continue to operate TikTok in the US.

    But he will go through with heightened tariffs on imports from China, which will retaliate with tariffs on US goods. The resulting trade war will send the world economy into a tailspin.

    Unwilling to fulfill American alliance commitments, Trump will encourage South Korea and Taiwan to get their own nuclear weapons. That will cause Beijing and Pyongyang to accelerate their own nuclear buildup, worsening the security situation in the Pacific.

    What I missed

    Trump will ignore the several wars in Africa. He will end US efforts to deal with climate change. He will continue to blabber about taking over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal but those ambitions are smokescreens. Trump’s real ambition is to make everything about him. He has no fear of failure because he is confident he can spin whatever happens as success. That is what he is really good at. At least half of America believes it.

    • This article was first published in www.dtt-net.com
  • Yayale Ahmed: Filling gaps in Nigeria’s administrative reform history

    Yayale Ahmed: Filling gaps in Nigeria’s administrative reform history

    • By Tunji Olaopa

    This piece was meant to be my address and reflection during a planned courtesy visit in 2024 to the Federal Civil Service Commission of my old boss, Mahmud Yayale Ahmed, commander of the federal republic (CFR), former Head of Service of the Federation, former SGF and Hon. Minister, Ajiyan Katagum, and Chairman of the Governing Council, Ahmadu Bello Univerity, Zaria; a visit, which objective indeed had achieved by other means. When a personality like Mahmud Yayale Ahmed decides to pay a visit to an organization like the Federal Civil Service Commission (FCSC) to honour his mentee, then such a visit is far from being a mere courtesy visit. Such visitation generates reflections and discourses, and activate possibilities. That is the kind of personality Yayale Ahmed is. And such visit especially to the FCSC carries both the burden of administrative history and reform possibilities. Yayale Ahmed was not just my former boss, he is also a veritable mentor; I owe a significant portion of my trajectory into becoming a bureaucrat-scholar-reformer to his mentorship. He had a fundamental impact in shaping my foray into the maelstrom of public service institutional reform programme management in the federal service. Having such an old boss visit his boy at the FCSC is an event in itself, one that is sufficient to make me tremble at the possible comments I would receive.

    However, when he is visiting in his capacity as the national chairman of the Council for Retired Federal Permanent Secretaries (CORFEPS), the matter becomes even more critical. CORFEPS is the association of retired administrative professionals that has been throwing the weight of its institutional memory and competences behind the ongoing efforts to transform the dwindling status and reputation of public administration and the capacity readiness of the public service in Nigeria. Thus, when CORFEPS meets FCSC, we are already not only laying the templates for all hands to be on deck, but also articulating the critical historical and administrative records that must undergird the necessity of institutionally rehabilitating Nigeria’s public administration architecture.

    When CORFEPS held its maiden colloquium on 5-7 March, 2024, and had in attendance the administrative bigwigs—from HRM Olu Falae to Amb. Babagana Kingibe and, Dr. Bukar Usman, as lead speaker—the association demonstrates that the past administrative leadership cannot be retired out of the collective responsibility of institutional reform that the public administration and public service sorely need in Nigeria. Indeed, that maiden colloquium brought a new energy into the functionality of the communities of practice and service—retired heads of service and permanent secretaries at both the federal and state levels, platforms of retired directors, pensioners, Nigerian Association of Public Administration and Management (NAPAM), etc.—and the strategic and restorative responsibility for the institutional repositioning of public administration as a noble vocation in Nigeria. And the fundamental objective is clear: how the Nigerian public administration framework, and the public service system, can be reformed to jumpstart Nigeria’s strategic inclusion in the fourth industrial revolution and its implication for infrastructural development to service the wellbeing of Nigerians.

    In this piece, my objective is to insert the administrative personality of Mahmud Yayale Ahmed into the reform trajectory of the Nigerian civil service system during the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency. This is with the aim of filling out some missing gaps in the reform experiment at the commencement of Nigeria’s democratic governance in 1999. His proactive role as an institutional reformer par excellence also constitutes the occasion to ask fundamental question about the capacity of the civil service system to reform itself. This will eventually not only provide a historical and administrative basis for situating his significance in Nigeria’s reform progress, but also his current role as the chairperson of CORFEPS and its ongoing efforts to backstop restorative institutional reform.

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    The years between 2000 and 2007 were significant in Nigeria’s administrative and reform history because they present a moment of a major paradigm shift in change management praxis that contributed a fundamental template of reform progress to Nigeria’s reform architecture and achievements. And Yayale Ahmed was right in the centre of the critical efforts to lay the foundation of a world class civil service institution for the Nigerian state. It was at a critical juncture that Yayale Ahmed took over the rein of administrative affairs of a civil service system that had weathered several reform commissions and reports meant to translate the fortunes of the system into concrete administrative advances that Nigerians can relate with in terms of service delivery. The Udoji Commission (1974), Dotun Phillips Study Team (1984) and Ayida Review Panel (1994), all attempted to ground the public service on a pedestal of managerial efficiency and effectiveness that delivers the goods and the services.

    When I met Yayale Ahmed, it was right in the midst of the unfolding reform efforts at making sense of the public service system within Nigeria’s democratic experiment. He was the permanent secretary at the federal ministry of education when I was the head of the policy division, as well as the special assistant to Prof. Tunde Adeniran who later mentioned me to his successor (the late Prof. Babalola Borishade). I was later introduced by the late Prof. Akin Mabogunje to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo who then seconded me, on the strength of my articulation through a concept note of the institutional reform challenges and direction of the civil service, to serve as the technical head of the secretariat of the strategy team located within the Management Services Office. I report directly to the permanent secretary, late Mr. O. O. Oyelakin, who reports directly to the head of Service, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed.

    Given the reputation of someone that the president, Olusegun Obasanjo, referred to as “Mr. Civil Servant,” his in-depth grounding in the dynamics of the system, as well as the crucial understanding of the democratic imperative underlying institutional change, Yayale Ahmed was able to courageously articulate a reform methodology that jumpstarted a new era of administrative reforms in Nigeria. In 2001, as the second phase of the implementation of the Ayida Report was underway, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed faced the federal executive council presided over by President Olusegun Obasanjo, and boldly asserted that the civil service possessed the sufficient resident capacity to diagnose its institutional debilitation, articulate a reform strategy and oversee its own reform. And this revolutionary declaration was coming at a time when skeptics were not sure anything good could ever come out of the civil service.

    Indeed, I strongly believed that it was part of the determination to prove the strength of his conviction about the system’s capability to reform itself that facilitated the broadminded learning and proactive space that led to the institutional and professional maturation of someone like me and my eventual transformation into a bureaucrat-scholar. What I mean to say is that under Yayale Ahmed’s watch, I saw the evolution and full maturation of my growing research expertise that came at a crucial point when the diagnostic study and strategic development of the reform methodology was unfolding. No wonder therefore that it was under his ambitious, firm and visionary headship that one of the largest reform programs in the annals of change management in Nigeria was successfully implemented. 

    Yayale Ahmed’s stature as a public servant cannot be properly decided outside of the reform architecture during his time as the head of service. Indeed, his reputation is tied in with the establishment and fortune of the Bureau of Public Service Reform (BPSR) which is supposed to be the arrowhead of the courageous assertion that the civil service is able to diagnose and reform itself. The BPSR was established in 2003 as the lead reform implementation and monitoring coordinating agency armed with the objective of managing and sustaining service-wide reforms agenda of the Obasanjo administration, while also ensuring that the reform mandate was implemented in the Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), the operational units carrying out government business. The three major justification for the existence of the BPSR are:

    •The need to create a clearing house, a one-stop-shop of a sort, where all stakeholders could receive information and guidance on all the reform programmes of the Federal Government;

    •The strong conviction that the reforms objectives will not be realized in the long term, through an ad-hoc committee or task force; and

    •The need to have an “engine room” that is enabled with the required capability and resources to leverage on local and international knowledge networks and communities of public administration best practices, to support policy, institutional and governance reform processes with required expertise, and good practices on an on-going basis (http://www.bpsr.gov.ng/index.php).   

    However, the trajectory of the operational dynamics of the BPSR since 2007 has been less than optimal. And so, the question of whether it has been able to live up to its mandate is a difficult one to answer. And this is because of so many crippling circumstances, bureaucratic and political, that attended its operations. Since 2008, the capacity of the BPSR to manage and sustain institutional reforms has been stunted. For instance, by transferring its supervision from the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation (HCSF) to the OSGF, its mandate was though expanded from being confined solely to the core civil service rather than the wider public service, but at that it lost the required professional supervision it needs so badly to function. And it also implies that it would henceforth be managed as an appendage of the OSGF rather than as an active player in the few significant initiatives that have taken place in the civil/public service since then.

    Reform efforts before the BPSR have always been hampered by an oscillation between comprehensiveness and selectivity in the choice of methodology for pushing reform through. And that indecisiveness also played out within the operational dynamics of the BPSR. But then the many attempts at pushing the BPSR into strategic irrelevance could not diminish a paradigmatic reform methodology: there was a decisive transition away from a decade of episodic structural review of the civil service system to a methodological perception of administrative reform as one trajectory of continuous learning and incremental improvement. And this is where the BPSR proved its most fundamental importance in providing the organizing framework for enhancing this paradigmatic reform methodology. It did this by developing a generic guideline for restructuring, streamlining and monitoring the operational bases of the MDAs.

    Pilot MDA reforms were carried out as basis for measuring and documenting the administrative challenges confronted by the public service that undermine its performance efficiency. The pilot study also enabled the scaling up of the reform implementation strategy to other MDAs at: (a) service-wide systemic reform level, (b) the MDAs’ specific level which entails the implementation of performance improvement plans and the deepening and consolidation of reforms as it concerns cross-cutting reform programs with instruments such as challenge and performance improvement funds, and (c) the implementation of such reform programs as pension reform, national health insurance scheme, statistical reform, pay reform, SERVICOM, to name just a few.

    It was therefore from broad-based analyses of the fundamental assumptions, presuppositions, indications, deductions and findings from the pilot MDAs study that generated the initiatives for designing and firming up the irreducible national strategy for public service reform (NSPSR).

    The document constitutes a fundamental reform blueprint for articulating the trajectory of reform management in Nigeria. The significance of the NSPSR derives from the host of reform initiatives and achievements that its methodological emergence made possible, especially post-Yayale Ahmed. I could mention a few. There was the finalization of the African Public Service Charter that encompass a continental administrative blueprint around which the NSPSR could also be mainstreamed. There was also a concerted and genuine effort to resurrect the National Association for Public Administration and Management (NAPAM) which fell through because of a lack of push-through by the bureaucratic leadership. We cannot but mention the service-wide significance of the tenure policy and the concern to contain the exploding but unsustainable institutional redundancies that birthed the Oronsaye panel on the rationalization of agencies and parastatals that became a poster initiative for the post-Obasanjo reform era. That reform policy is still the focal point of every effort to deal with the cost of governance problem that bedevils the public service. We must also signal the introduction of the ministerial scorecard as a managerial strategy for performance management under the Goodluck Jonathan administration. This is complemented by other initiatives like online training programme which has been expanded into the formidable Leadership Enhancement and Development Programme (LEAD-P).

    In retrospect, the courage displayed by Yayale in insisting that the civil service possesses the capacity to reform itself, and the series of administrative incidences that attended the BPSR’s effort to championing that argument, only makes the issue even more cogent. All across the world, there are healthy scepticism around the possibility of a bureaucracy leading its own administrative reform. And the jury is still out on whether the Yayale Ahmed’s leadership of the civil service was able to undermine that skepticism enough given the undercurrent of the battle-royal between the federal service and the economic management team during the president Obasanjo second-term. And this generates more questions and discourses that public administration theorists and institutional reformers in Nigeria cannot run away from. Institutional reform in Nigeria always appears Sisyphean, as if the reformers are confronted with the task of rolling the boulder of administrative reform up a hill only to watch it roll back down perpetually. So, why is the task of institutional reform a series of motions without many substantive movements? In concrete terms, why is it the case that despite the numerous service-wide reform initiatives from 1999 to date, the federal civil service system is still, on balance, progressively declining in some critical performance indicators and parameters that overall, limit its capability readiness to sustain service delivery to Nigerians?

    Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, the French satirist, once remarked: ‘The more things change, the more they stay the same.” In change management terms, this is a crippling observation that not only inhibit the capacity of the system to backstop Nigeria’s democratic governance, but also gloss over, in an unfair manner, the enormous and paradigmatic efforts of institutional reformers like my old boss, Yayale Ahmed. I am however optimistic that Nigeria’s change management discourse will receive a new lease on life. For one, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed is not one to give up easily. His chairmanship of CORFEPS is just one significant indication of that. Second, the collaboration between CORFEPS and the Federal service, if concretized, portends a fundamental direction that brings the institutional experiences of retired permanent secretaries and heads of service in critical conversation with successive serving administrative leadership in time and space to move the civil service forward. This is why I am excited that my old boss had chosen to reach out to his mentee at the FCSC the way he did.