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Bridging continents through trade and diplomacy

By Simpson Ugofure

In international diplomacy, visits by heads of state carry profound meaning. They are often carefully curated, signalling not just political alignment but also economic and cultural intent. When the president of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, chose Nigeria as the destination for his first presidential visit to Africa, it symbolised the growing importance of the continent in global geopolitics and trade.

Such visits are rare, particularly in a corporate or economic context. Yet, they signify the rising recognition of Africa’s untapped potential as a driver of global economic growth. Over the past decade, the continent’s GDP has surged by 30 per cent and even amid global economic uncertainties, Africa has maintained an impressive growth rate, consistently outpacing other regions. Its youthful population, abundant resources, and expanding consumer markets have positioned Africa as the world’s fastest-growing continent – a compelling partner for nations like Germany.

This visit wasn’t just about politics. President Steinmeier’s itinerary, which included meetings with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Abuja and representatives of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), reflected a broader agenda: strengthening economic ties. The Lagos leg of his trip was particularly telling, as he engaged with start-up founders, representatives of Nigerian-German businesses, and key stakeholders in trade and investment. These interactions highlighted a pivotal truth—economic diplomacy now hinges on fostering collaboration between nations and the private sector.

Even more telling, the president chose to visit Access Bank Plc, one of Africa’s proudest exports in finance, having carved a unique role in fostering cross-border partnerships. His meeting with the bank’s leadership and the German Desk demonstrated the critical importance of financial intermediaries in facilitating international trade and investment. Over the past six years, the German Desk at Access Bank has become a trusted partner for German and European businesses navigating the complexities of African markets.

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From assisting over 100 companies with local funding solutions, cash management, and fund repatriation to supporting them in registering their businesses in Africa, the German Desk has not only eased the entry of foreign businesses into Nigeria, but also helped deepen economic ties between the continents. With its operations spanning several sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, and South Africa, the German Desk reflects the growing interdependence between Africa and Europe in the wake of globalisation’s explosion.

By choosing to engage directly with Access Bank, President Steinmeier highlighted the role of institutions that bridge the gap between local markets and international investors. It was a moment that highlighted the tangible ways in which financial institutions can drive meaningful collaboration, providing the tools and expertise needed to foster sustainable growth on both sides.

For Germany, Nigeria is more than a bilateral trade partner; it is the second-largest trading partner in Africa, after South Africa. German exports to Nigeria span machinery, chemicals, and industrial goods, while Nigeria’s oil and agricultural products are vital to Germany’s supply chain. Yet the trade figures, though promising, represent only a fraction of the potential both nations stand to unlock through deeper economic cooperation.

On its part, Germany has taken deliberate steps to bolster investment in Africa, introducing initiatives to guarantee investments and ensure transparency. These measures have borne fruit, attracting more German companies to the continent. But for this momentum to continue, Africa must remain a fertile ground for foreign investment. Industries such as raw materials, energy, tourism, and trade require sustained capital inflows to achieve their long-term growth potential.

This is where the role of corporate institutions comes into sharp focus. Financial institutions and businesses operating at the intersection of global trade serve as the linchpins in these partnerships. They navigate the complexities of cross-border transactions, provide market insights, and foster an environment of trust that encourages foreign investment.

The visit also reflects a broader shift in how Africa is perceived on the global stage. No longer merely a resource-exporting continent, Africa is increasingly viewed as a critical player in shaping the future of global commerce and innovation. This growing recognition is a testament to the work being done by African governments, regional organisations, and forward-thinking corporate institutions like Access Bank committed to building sustainable partnerships.

Such leadership and vision are pivotal as Africa continues to navigate its path toward economic empowerment and global influence. By focusing on self-reliance and strategic advantage, Africa is not only gaining a seat at the table but is also poised to lead in areas where it holds unique strengths.

Indeed, these recent events stand as a symbol of what can be achieved when diplomacy and business align. It serves as a reminder that the world’s future growth lies in fostering connections that go beyond borders, and in investing in regions that will shape the global economy for decades to come. The opportunity is clear—for Germany, for Nigeria, and for Africa as a whole.

•Ugofure writes from Abuja

December 20, 2024
Syria: Calm before the storm
- By Charles Onunaiju
Sooner or later, it will be apparent that toppling the former Syrian leader, Bashar Al-Assad in a whirlwind of dramatic jihadist march on Damascus is the easiest part to what is coming to resemble night of long knives for the beleaguered but pivotal Arab state.

Former and deposed President Basher Al-Assad, far less politically savvy and adroit than his father, Hafiz Al-Assad, had nearly 10 years to heal his fractured country by initiating an inclusive political process that would have lured back moderate oppositions, while isolating the extremists. Rather, he chose to ensconce himself within his narrow circle. A large swath of Syrian population displaced by the conflict were all over the region and beyond, living in exiles in some unfriendly and unwelcoming climes, yet Assad did not hold out any meaningful olive branch that should have signalled serious effort at national reconciliation. Having managed to fend off the military siege of combined moderate opposition and hard-line extremists, through the decisive Russian, Iranian and the Lebanese Hezbollah support, he did not follow the ostensible military victory with any political program of national reconciliation.

The initiative of national dialogue with opposition groups, initiated by the United Nations, appeared to be a mere political circus show by his government to wear out the opposition and consolidate his rule. But he certainly could not rule perpetually in vacuum. The Syrian exiles scattered across and beyond the region remained unreconciled to Damascus and were contented to live in squalid exiles, especially in Lebanon and Turkey rather than return home. And Assad and his circle continued to preside over a country hollowed out by economic bankruptcy, social tension and mounting political fragility.

Meanwhile, the hard-line Al-Nusra Front and former Islamic State affiliate notorious for some of the war atrocities, including decapitating bodies of their victims and tearing out their hearts, had enough time to mutate and transform to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the main rebel group among others that swept through the country’s major cities, Aleppo, Homs, Hama and stormed Damascus in just one week. Contrary to several reports, Al-Assad flight to Russia where he has been granted asylum was negotiated, and made way for his Prime Minister to formally hand over the reins of governance to the victorious rebels.

Despite Syria’s current travails when it caught the political flu of the Arab spring in 2011, the country is an enigmatic and pivotal Arab state with one of the highest literacy rate at over 90% in the region and equally famous for one of the strongest militaries in the region. And for effect, Syria is about the only country in the region that achieved 100% enrolment of girls in high school. In fact, parents who did not send their daughters to school risk punishment. The birthplace of the Pan Arab Baath party, one of the most progressive political parties in the region, Syria may have been about the Al-Assads in the past 50 years or so but have never been for the Al-Assads.

Despite the obvious political naivety of the younger Al-Assad and confluence of other factors that twisted the fate of Syria, especially with its current travails, the country is no backwater and its people were among the most urbane in the region. Syria’s nationalism and pro-independence agitation was largely powered by the secularist Baath Party founded by the trio of Michael Alaaq, a Damascus born Christian, Salah al Din Bita, a Sunni Muslim and Zaki Al-Arsuzi in 1947 whose creed of “Unity, Freedom and Socialism” resonated across all nationalist and pan-Arabist circles in the region.

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Hafiz-Assad, a minority Alawi born in the mountainous western region became a militant party activist in high school before joining the pioneer air force school in Aleppo.

The background to the emergence of modern Syria and its trajectories has become necessary because of the recent event and how the Western media and political establishment has twisted facts and demonized the rule of the Al-Assads as if it were only about dungeons, prisoner abuses, rights violations and corruption of the previous ruling elites. Syria actually under the rule of the Arab Baath party was about the most militant anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist and famous as a melting point of religious tolerance, ethnic and gender inclusivity. While the events starting in 2011, following the Arab Spring should have instilled new thinking in Damascus and opened the way for renewed inclusive political process, the reclusive elite around the deposed leader, Al-Assad inoculated itself against the sweeping currents that would after more than a decade of flowing under, busted and swept them out of office.

With the reformed hard line Jihadist now calling the shots in Damascus and the Western media canonizing them as the latest Messiah in town, how would the Syria’s future unfold?

For a start, the now HTS is not the only political force who sought or fought for the ouster of Bashar Al-Assad and now that what appears to unite them is out of the way, their respective naked ambitions would burst to the front burner. The mostly secular Free Syrian Army (FSA) allied to Turkey and the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Front close to the Americans, are likely to bid for pre-eminence place in who calls the shot from Damascus. The Hayat Tahir Al-Sham (HTS) largely credited with the final push that removed Al-Assad from office, would certainly lay claim to a princely role in the new political forces in Damascus. Nothing so far is heard or been said about the rump of the former national army, who either melted away or simply stood akimbo while the conquering opposition fighters march on Damascus.

According to the eminent American scholar, John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at University of Chicago, Syria is in for a prolonged period of chaos, expressing doubt that “a coherent government” that would be capable of controlling the entire country would be formed soon. Mearsheimer accused the U.S and other Western governments of basically throwing in “our lot with a number of Al-Qaeda and ISIS operatives and they won and added that Washington and other Western political establishment, along with the media, were now doing everything they can to clean up”

HTS leader, Mohammed Al-Jolani, who is still an internationally wanted terrorist and has a US issued $10 million bounty on his head.

The spin of the Western media, notwithstanding the ousting of President Al-Assad and taking control of the capital is the least of the challenge that the insurgents-turned rulers will face. It was instructive that entering Damascus, the HTS leader chose 15th century Sunni Mosque to issue his first statement. Though considerably conciliatory in tone, it is too early to suggest that one who recently fought along the ISIS leader, Abubakar Al-Baghadadi, would rule over a largely secular and urbane Syria, with guarantees for women and minority rights. When the Americans helped the Talibans to overthrow the secular pro-soviet regime of Najibullah in Afghanistan in the1990’s, the former Koranic student trained in Afghan and Pakistan Madrasas, also gave hint of political inclusion and gender tolerance but hardly did they settle down in Kabul than they bared their fangs. Traditionally, chaos, disorder and mayhem are the essential tools, the West uses in undermining and overwhelming its third world adversaries while using the cover language of democracy, freedom and human rights. Iraq and Libya before Syria are now, no democracies and even too chaotic to speak of freedom and human rights, while life at its very subsistence is the existential realities of these countries, earlier far better organized with arguably first class infrastructures and advanced education under their former “dictators”.

Syria’s new leaders can avoid the fate of chaos. But, having chosen their first symbolic act of vandalizing the tomb of the late president, Hafiz Al-Assad, instead of making true their gestures of national reconciliation and political inclusion, it seemed Syria may just at its calmest best before the storms ahead. It is only hoped that Syrians historic gains and crucial mileage reached in national construction should not be recklessly thrown away at the altar of new political correctness and grand-standing.

•Onunaiju contributed this from Abuja.
December 19, 2024
As Gateway airport takes aviation industry by storm
- By Olaniyi Ajibola
A celebrated American scholar, author and leading expert in leadership studies, Warren Bennis, in his deep analysis of the integral tenets of good leadership in the context of development and sustainable transformation, posited rather authoritatively: “Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality”.

Indeed, a leader is indeed a mere dealer if only what he could do is to identify the needs of his people, pronounce it as a matter of information and subsequently stop at that pronouncement without action and steps that could make the dream a significant reality.

The above analogy absolutely captures sequence of infrastructural development in Ogun State, especially with regards to the Gateway International Agro-cargo Airport that is near completion with world class facilities of rare quality around the country and the West African sub-region.

It may interest Nigerians to know that the project, conceived and announced by the administration in power in Ogun State around 2006, surprisingly, it stopped at that pronouncement and attendant paper tiger and embarrassing photo-shop until the present administration of Prince Dapo Abiodun came into the saddle.

In one of the many narratives of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, on the project, the Publicity Secretary of the party in the State, Comrade Tunde Oladunjoye, once described the proposed airport between 2006 and 2019 as nothing but announcement of thick forest as agro-cargo airport, saying the announcement without political will and seriousness to take action was an usual gimmicks and deception that characterised government of those days.

Said he: “Gbenga Daniel, after announcing construction of an Airport in the year 2006, the area earmarked for the project remained a tick forest till 2019 when Prince Dapo Abiodun came into the saddle. Daniel’s successor, Ibikunle Amosun…did not even open the file of the proposed airport throughout his eight years in office, the same way Daniel abandoned all the projects left behind by his predecessor, Aremo Olusegun Osoba”.

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Dapo Abiodun, who would never take any issue of development with levity, with a speed of light and in the greatest astonishment of many pessimists and traducers, moved contractors to site and started the construction of Gateway International Agro-cargo Airport in earnest after extensive and comprehensive feasibility studies.

Interestingly, the project reached almost 98 per cent of completion within 24 months, with the longest runway and apron in the entire West Africa, together with the most sophisticated control tower. An incredible and indelible feat to behold!

In his recent assessment of the airport, the Chief of Staff to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Rt. Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila said the Gateway International Agro Cargo and Passenger Airport would soon be the transportation hub for other states in the Southwest.

Gbajabiamila also applauded Governor Dapo Abiodun for forging ahead with the airport project even when other governors failed in their quest to build a world class airport in their states.

The former Speaker of the House of Representatives also gave kudos to Abiodun for believing in the airport project, which he said would help improve the economy of Ogun State.

He added that the airport would help drive the economy of the state, neighbouring states, and the country as a whole, saying that the ease of doing business in the state would also be improved.

“For Ogun State, this airport has the potential of being a hub for every other state around the Southwest and improving the ease of doing business. You can travel from here. The potential is enormous. You can’t begin to count; it has its ripple effect on the economy.

“When I was in the National Assembly over the years, I know of several states in the Southwest that tried and struggled to build airports that were nowhere of this size and they were not able to do it. Without taking anything away from them, it is commendations all the way for Governor Dapo Abiodun.

“I was surprised at what it looks inside. The outside belies the inside and I think the governor has done a good job. He deserves to be commended.

“I can only describe his administration in one word – transformative, very transformative. We’ve come, we’ve seen, what you see is what you get and each time I come here, I see what his administration is doing, especially in terms of infrastructural development and I give kudos to his Excellency, the governor.”

Speaking in the same pattern and manner some days ago, regulatory agencies in the aviation industry, while visiting the airport for on-the-spot assessment, commended Prince Dapo Abiodun, for the quality of facilities put in place at the airport and the degree of completion within a short period of time.

The agencies which comprised the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), and Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), unanimously adjudged the airport as world-standard and a source of pride for Ogun State.

According to the agencies, the critical infrastructure at the airport, which includes the control tower, weather monitoring areas, runway, fire service stations, and the apron, can rival any of its type around the world and remain one of the best in the West African corridor.

The Senior Project Manager of Craneburg, the construction company handling the project, Nicolas Mfarrej, informed the officials that the airport is about 98% ready to take off fully and begin to serve the interests of the state.

In the same vein, the consultant on regulatory matters to the Ogun State Governor, Oluwole Adeyileka, explained that the key players in the regulation and monitoring of facilities for full airport operations had come to assess the level of readiness of the state, adding that it was noteworthy that they had been impressed by what the state had put in place at the airport.

Also speaking, the manager of Gateway International Airport, Captain Dapo Olumide, and the Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Ade Akinsanya, said the ongoing assessment is the last hurdle to be crossed before the airport could go on full commercial operations, adding that the assessment given had shown that the state is set to take the lead in air traffic services in the country, describing it as a good outcome of great commitment and dedication to the realization of the dream of an airport that can meet world standards.

•Ajibola is a Senior Special Assistant to Governor Abiodun on Strategic Communications.
December 19, 2024
Kemi Badenoch and how not to denigrate your country
- By Zayd Ibn Isah
The leader of the British Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, recently found herself at the centre of heated controversy after her unsavoury remarks about Nigeria sparked widespread outrage. In one of her videos circulating on social media, Kemi stated that she doesn’t want her adopted country, Britain, to “look like the one she ran away from.” Unsurprisingly, this statement did not sit well with many well-meaning Nigerians, including Vice President Kashim Shettima, who found it far from amusing.

Born in Wimbledon, London, Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke, now known as Kemi Badenoch, spent her early years shuttling between Lagos, Nigeria, and the United States, where her mother, a professor of Physiology, lived and lectured. Kemi is always quick to reference her African lineage, yet whenever she does, she peddles a single narrative of suffering, underdevelopment, and lack. Her remarks remind me of Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s TED Talk, “The Danger of a Single Story.” Kemi Badenoch once described Nigeria as a living hell—a place where she had to walk miles to fetch water and where, according to her, “lizards run out of the taps.”

This childhood experience, as narrated by Kemi to her British audience, doesn’t add up. According to information available on Wikipedia, her mother travelled from Nigeria to the UK to give birth at St. Teresa’s private hospital before the British Nationality Act 1981 abolished automatic birth-right citizenship for those born in the United Kingdom. She then returned to Nigeria shortly after Kemi was born. Now, an average Nigerian family living in Lagos on a meagre salary could not have afforded such expenses to travel to London to give birth. They would have opted for a general hospital in Oshodi or Idumota. This should cast doubt on Kemi’s claim of walking miles to fetch water!

Even if that is her reality, is Kemi’s put-down necessary? Such denigration might be excusable from a foreigner, but here we have a Nigerian stooping low to pander to the sentiments of her adopted country, essentially saying what they want to hear to gain favour.

One is forced to wonder if Kemi Badenoch is merely sticking to a familiar script by ostensibly selling her fatherland short to bolster her chances of becoming the British Prime Minister one day. While we wish her success in her political aspirations, we must remind her of the time-tested African adage: “A man who denigrates his father or place of origin to gain applause is like a child who defecates in his own mother’s lap”.

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Her divisive rhetoric extends even further. Kemi, in another moment of self-serving commentary, declared that she is Yoruba and has “nothing in common with people from the north of the country, the Boko Haram where Islamism is.” This inflammatory statement, rife with stereotypes, not only seeks to disassociate her from a significant portion of Nigeria’s population but also perpetuates a dangerous narrative that feeds into ethnic and religious divides.

Such a remark is deeply irresponsible, especially coming from someone of Nigerian heritage. Nigeria’s strength lies in its diversity—over 250 ethnic groups and multiple religions coexisting under one flag. Reducing a region and its people to a single negative label is not just inaccurate but harmful, as it reinforces stereotypes that undermine national unity and mutual understanding.

Kemi may be seen as suave and savvy in the UK for casting aspersions on Nigeria, but history is replete with Nigerians who were once darlings of the British media, only to be cast aside when the tides turned. In the end, they often ran back to the country they once disparaged. She may think she has escaped Nigeria for good, but as Chinua Achebe reminds us in Arrow of God: “The little bird which hops off the ground and lands on an ant-hill may not know it, but it is still on the ground”.

Nations, like individuals, have imperfections. Nigeria is no exception, grappling with corruption, insecurity, and economic woes. Yet, these challenges are not unique to Nigeria. Many nations face similar struggles but are seldom dissected with the same fervour by their own nationals in public. When Nigerians, especially those in influential positions, speak ill of the country, it reinforces stereotypes and undermines efforts to rebrand and develop the nation.

In an effort to address Kemi’s persistent denigration of Nigeria, Vice-President Shettima suggested that she “remove the Kemi from her name” if she was not proud of her “nation of origin.” Badenoch’s tone-deaf response, issued through her spokesman, was that “she stands by what she says” and “is not the PR for Nigeria.”

Clearly, this stubborn response only serves to worsen matters. Let’s be frank: Nigeria does not need her PR. And even if we did, we would not force her. What we are asking from her is not too much. If you are not the PR for Nigeria, then do not be the opposite. Besides, this country already has great men and women, both at home and abroad, who are flying its colours high. Individuals like Amina J. Mohammed, Akinwumi Adesina, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, and even footballer Ademola Lookman have shown the world that Nigeria’s strengths and talents far outweigh its challenges.

Badenoch’s remarks serve as a cautionary tale for all Nigerians, whether at home or abroad. Constructive criticism is necessary for growth, but the manner in which such critique is delivered matters immensely. Leaders and public figures must balance honesty with diplomacy, ensuring their words do not inadvertently harm the very people and places they claim to care about.

Badenoch could take a cue from former American President Barack Obama, who never denigrated Kenya, his father’s homeland, despite its numerous challenges. Instead, he celebrated Kenya’s potential and its role as a symbol of hope for Africa. Similarly, great Nigerians in the diaspora, like the aforementioned, exemplify how to critique one’s homeland constructively while celebrating its culture, people, and aspirations. They understand the weight of their words and use them to inspire hope, not despair.

It is worth noting that narratives about Nigeria, or any country, are often influenced by those who control the global conversation. For every criticism, there should be an equal effort to highlight the country’s resilience, cultural richness, and untapped potential. A nation’s story is multifaceted, and no single aspect should define it.

That said, although Kemi has goofed, she is still one of us. We will not throw the baby out with the bathwater. However, she must learn from those who have gone before her. Rishi Sunak never spoke ill of India, yet he became the British Prime Minister. Kemi does not need to ride on Nigeria’s shortcomings to reach the UK government house. After all, it is the Nigerian spirit in her that is propelling her to greatness.

Badenoch’s case underscores the need for Nigerians to take ownership of their narrative. From the halls of Westminster to the streets of Lagos, every Nigerian has a role in shaping the image of the country. While acknowledging our flaws, we must also celebrate our strengths, countering negativity with hope and progress.

Criticism, when done with love and an eye toward solutions, can inspire change. But when laced with disdain, it alienates and demoralises. Patriotism is not blind loyalty, but neither is it relentless disparagement. It is a delicate balance—a lesson Kemi Badenoch, and all of us, would do well to remember.

•Isah can be reached at lawcadet1@gmail.com
December 19, 2024
Arik: As the day of reckoning cometh …
- By Ololade Gbajumo
From 2006, it took 11 years of hard toil, sleepless nights and multi-billion dollars in investments and enormous international goodwill for Arik Air to establish its pre-eminence in the aviation industry, employing 3,500 professionals, acquiring 22 brand new aircraft to operate over 120 flights a day within Nigeria, Africa and to New York and London.

Now, seven years and 10 months after the forcible take-over on February 9, 2017, AMCON and Oluseye Opasanya SAN, the receiver manager, have finally been called to account for their stewardship that reduced a once acclaimed $3.7bn-worth airline with monthly revenues in excess of N12bn, to a wobbling ghost of its pre-receivership self. Today, the airline is a shadow of itself, barely employing 350 staff, operating just three aircraft (out of the serviceable fleet of 19 AMCON took over according, to the owners).

In what amuses most industry watchers, the AMCON Managing Director, Gbenga Alade, recently celebrated three wet-leased aircraft of Aero Contractors as a success (after 11 years in “receivership”). Maybe, the possession of three wet-leased aircraft is the new benchmark for high achievement for AMCON-managed airlines!

For those accused of mismanaging Arik, the day of reckoning would seem to have dawned on December 3, when the EFCC brought a six-count charge bordering on corruption, stealing and abuse of office against Ahmed Kuru (former CEO of AMCON), Kamilu Omokide (former Receiver Manager), Captain Roy Ilegbodu CEO- Arik in Receivership, Super Bravo Limited and Union Bank Plc.

The recent assertion by EFCC chairman, Ola 0lukayode, that about 70% financial crimes in Nigeria is traceable to the banks and a broader dysfunction in our society is so true. Not a few Nigerian lawyers, accountants, bankers and other core professionals play pivotal roles in enabling major financial frauds. Indeed, there is also hardly any public sector fraud that is possible without the complicity and conspiracy of several professionals based on sectoral relevance.

Arik is a classic example of how banks and bankers, public officers, lawyers and accountants abuse their authority and betrayed sacred trust to execute wanton destruction of value, leading to the loss of multibillion naira investments, breach of international agreements, destruction of careers and loss of a flag carrier on international routes.

Arik’s takeover by AMCON appears more of a premeditated scheme by powerful forces in cahoots with the Godwin Emefiele-led CBN based on nothing more than hearsays to secure an order for “intervention” from the then Ag President Yemi Osibanjo, without facts and recourse to due process and law.

The whole receivership scheme was founded on a needless loan sale that started with a commercial bank that allegedly defrauded the federal government, which fed the appetite of government officials scavenging for filthy lucre. Of course, that singular act only succeeded in pitching Nigeria in bad lights globally given the involvement of several international investors in the airline.

The most striking issue of this unusual receivership plot was the process of the CBN’s approval for Arik receivership at its purported 494th Governors’ meeting. This meeting, held behind closed doors at the apex bank’s headquarters, set the stage for an ambush that would grant retroactive approval for Arik’s fate as designed by Ahmed Kuru and his “strategy team”.

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Far from a noble rescue mission aimed at saving “an ailing airline”, it was a well-scripted scheme executed ruthlessly by a small cabal of powerful figures within Nigeria’s financial, legal and regulatory spheres. It was designed to shield Emefiele-led mismanagement and conceal significant irregularities. The minutes of CBN 494th Meeting of the Committee of Governors (13 &15 February 2017) perhaps exposed this grand plot of “TAKE OVER OF ARIK AIRLINE ITEM 1010”.

According to the minutes, the then CBN governor declared that based on what he heard that the company was unable to service debt and the owners had given up (without hard evidence), they (CBN) had decided to intervene. Just like that!

However, in what appeared like a counter ambush, the then AMCON MD on his own cited a meeting with Osinbajo who he claimed directed a “RESCUE of ARIK along with DISCUSSIONS with Ministries of Finance and Aviation”. Furthermore, Kuru reportedly claimed at the said meeting that Standard Chartered had threatened seizure of two Arik aircraft. The puzzle is whether AMCON was originally privy to the agreements between Standard Chartered Bank and Arik?

At the same meeting, Ahmed Kuru declared he knew what to do to generate N6-9billion monthly revenue from Arik following an injection of fresh funds. Whereas, before the forcible takeover, Arik claimed its average monthly revenue was N12 billion.

Surprisingly, a CBN official at that meeting was recorded to have QUERIED Ahmed Kuru’s purported direct meeting with the Ag President without recourse to the CBN and not involving CBN till the tail end of this plan (CBN being owner/Supervisor of AMCON). This demand for transparency was discountenanced and the scheme progressed.

Meanwhile, public records indicate that Kuru-led AMCON took Arik Air into receivership with Oluseye Opasanya SAN on February 9, 2017, a week before the CBN GOVERNORS MEETING OF February 13/15, 2017! Apparently, his attendance at CBN meeting was to railroad the CBN to rubber stamp a poorly executed conspiracy of grabbing a private company, and Governor Emefiele graciously gave the platform that enabled an ambush of due process and the law.

CBN consequently directed as follows: 1. AMCON should “INTERVENE” in ARIK, 2. generous pay-mouts of N1.5bn Working Capital, 3. N35m to KPMG, 4. N100m to Olaniwun Ajayi, 5. $102,000 to Ethiopian Airline, etc in very questionable circumstances. This failure of transparency, oversight, and accountability formed the foundation for the receivership of Arik Air!

At the heart of the Arik Air debacle lies the issue of the loan AMCON bought from Union Bank. This loan is the centrepiece of the narrative of Arik’s purported financial woes. The Arik owners have always insisted that they only brought Union Bank into their transactions which was wholly arranged by them with US EximBank, AfriExim Bank, HSBC UK, European Credit Agency etc. as Local Bank Guarantors and as ticket sales collections agent for remittances to the foreign lenders. Hence they could not have defaulted in meeting their obligations.

Strangely, the CBN, in a memo referenced BSD/ GDA/CON/AMC/46/008 dated 15th March 2017, directed all commercial banks to suspend the repayment on the airline’s existing credit facilities from revenue collections.

So, without prior knowledge of terms and conditions of the said contracts, Emefiele’s CBN inadvertently descended into the arena and tacitly became complicit in an organised conspiracy against a private company. Clearly, AMCON under Kuru designed a plot to seize the company and deployed all official instruments to push the airline into default with lessors and banks among others involved in several contracts and transactions.

It was therefore not surprising that AMCON went to town with announcements of debts that did not exist simply to clear the ground for the receivership.

Once the receivership was officially rubber-stamped, the true scale of the ruthless execution became evident. Today, the once largest private airline in sub Saharan Africa has been raped to a coma. The airline reportedly valued at $3.7b by Delloite of London has been brought to pittance value through mindless large-scale asset-stripping, shutting down of routes developed with millions of dollars, loss of valuable international airports slots etc.

Fair enough, without further ado, let all those charged over the multifarious offences have their days in court.

Taken together, this receivership is surely a tragic case of mismanagement and cautionary tale of how financial institutions, regulators, and powerful individuals can collude to undermine public and private assets for selfish benefits. The Nigerian public has once again witnessed the disastrous consequences of corporate malfeasance at the highest levels of government and business.

For Arik Air, the consequences have been disastrous. But for the wider Nigerian economy, it is another painful reminder of how the nexus of power, money, greed and influence is disguised as financial engineering cum restructuring to exploit the nation and hardworking business people.

•Gbajumo, an aviation expert, writes from Lagos.
December 19, 2024
Baseless attack on TETFund

By Johnson Momodu

The legendary Nelson Mandela once described education as a formidable weapon useful to positively reset the stability and progression of society and humanity. But in Nigeria, education has virulent enemies who curiously revel in chaos, misinformation, and distractive mischief.

What is the best way to derail educational progression in Africa’s largest country? Simply pull down – or attempt to collapse – the structures, the powerful pillars that support and grow the sector.

The Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) is one such structure – and it is under attack. TETFund is an intervention agency set up to provide supplementary support to all levels of public tertiary educational institutions, specifically universities, polytechnics and Colleges of Education, with the main objective of using funding alongside project management for the rehabilitation, restoration and consolidation of tertiary education in Nigeria.

TETFund was originally established as Education Trust Tax by Act No 7 of 1993 as amended by Act No 40 of 1998. The Act was later repealed and replaced with the Tertiary Education Trust Fund Act No. 16 of 2011.

What is the substance of the attack initiated by some shadowy operator (s) that petitioned the National Security Adviser, NSA, claiming the Fund gave out money to a political party in a northern state? Specifically, a section of the social media has been inundated with images of a letter purportedly written by the Woman Leader of the Adamawa State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress, Mrs. Patricia Yakubu, to the NSA, part of which contains insinuations that the party received funding of N325 million between October 2023 and October 2024 from TETFund.

The lady also alleged that “Contracts from TETFund at FCE Yola and GMMC Yola for the benefit of the party was kept secret. They sold contracts and concealed the proceeds.”

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Basic ignorance by any stretch cannot become a licence for defaming critical institutions and responsible personalities who manage them.

Good a thing, Abdulmumin Oniyangi, Director, Public Affairs of TETFund, has responded to bring quick clarity to defog the misinformation wittingly or unwittingly deployed in the mix of mischief and malice to damage a vital institution and its founding principles.

His words: “We wish to state unequivocally that the insinuation is not only preposterous and totally false, but also a great disservice to the nation that an individual of such political standing, would engage in such frivolity without an iota of evidence.

“To further buttress the futility of the allegations, we wish to state in clear terms that General Murtala Mohammed College (GMMC), Yola, where TETFund contracts were alleged to have been sold is not a beneficiary institution of TETFund; while FCE Yola which is a beneficiary institution is solely responsible for engagement of its contractors in line with the policy of the Fund.

“The Fund has observed that allegations of this nature, sponsored by desperate individuals, have become the trend in recent times but will not be deterred in carrying out its statutory mandate which remains funding for the rehabilitation, restoration and consolidation of tertiary education in Nigeria.

“The Fund has undertaken this mandate steadily over the years both as ETF and TETFund and with renewed vigour under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. We advise that detractors get their facts right so as to avoid misleading the public.”

Clearly, TETFUND does not directly award contracts but releases money to beneficiary institutions. Its statutory configuration does not permit it to patronise political parties or politicians but only beneficiary public educational institutions in all corners of the country. Its statutory mandate would be defeated if it strays to patronizing political entities or politicians.

Many politicians – largely unproductive folks jostling for political appointments – must seek their fortunes somewhere else rather than maligning TETFund. It is also worth noting that TETFund’s transactions are pretty open because it has only one account with the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Beyond the informed pushback by TETFund’s public affairs directorate, another unsavoury consequence of this needless misinformation is that some sections of the media have bought into the false narrative peddled by a disgruntled lady politician. In rushing into publishing unverified allegations, they broke a cardinal, common rule of responsible journalism by not getting the other side of the story.

One newspaper even went into overdrive and did a cover story on November 30, calling out TETFund for alleged corruption. In summary, the news outlet put both the agency and its Executive Secretary on the spot, alleging it expended humongous amounts without appropriation. Surprising ignorance and wilful mischief were betrayed in that report.

But apparently, they misread TETFund’s Executive Secretary’s unassuming mien as a sign of weakness. Arc. Sonny Echono has responded appropriately without beating about the bush – with the instrumentality of law. He is a core, competent professional who understands the scope and sweep of his responsibility in a strategic sector at a challenging period.

As of press time, Echono had briefed his legal counsel, which has immediately got across to the newspaper, demanding recantation and other remedial imperatives – or they will initiate defamation proceedings against the newspaper. The counsel made it very clear that the publication has impugned Echono’s integrity and injured his hard-earned reputation.

Many may not know that Arc. Sonny Echono covets knowledge-driven innovations, proactive engagement with stakeholders, relevant institutions, policy makers, and, more importantly, sure-footed action. These dimensions have been boldly mirrored in his leadership of the TETFund despite the overarching challenges.

As it were, a powerful vision draws in ideas, people, and other resources. It creates the momentum and will to catalyse change. It inspires individuals, complementary organizations, and institutions to commit, persist, and give their best.

Keying into this enduring philosophy, unassuming Echono has also deployed impeccable professionalism, discipline, and persistence in the endeavour to change the traditional narrative of growing the education sector in Nigeria.

It would be pertinent, at this juncture, to illuminate some of the statutory principles that drive TETFund’s critical operations. The main source of income available to the Fund is the three per cent Education Tax paid from the assessable profit of companies registered in Nigeria. The Federal Inland Revenue Services assesses and collects the tax on behalf of the Fund.

The distribution of funds to beneficiary institutions as stipulated in the TETFund Act is in the ratio of 2:1:1 as between universities, polytechnics, and Colleges of Education.

The Fund is neither involved in the award of contracts in beneficiary institutions nor even in the nomination of scholars in the capacity building intervention, but only responsible for the disbursement of funds and monitoring of projects in beneficiary institutions. Awards of contracts are carried out by beneficiary institutions. Though these points have been made previously, they are worth repeating.

In line with the TETFund Act, intervention allocations are not required to pass through the National Assembly for approvals/appropriation as it is not one of the revenues that constitute the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation under Section 80(1) of the Constitution. This contradicts a core kernel of the newspaper report.

An interpretation of the provisions of the TETFund Act regarding submissions of TETFund allocations to the National Assembly for appropriation was given by the Office of the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice in 2013, where it was stated that the provisions of the TETFund Act do not require appropriation of its intervention funds by the National Assembly.

Therefore, those targeting this strategic national institution should perish their toxic mischief and consider going after other prey.

•Momodu, a public affairs analyst, is based in Benin.

December 18, 2024
Badenoch: A call for balanced leadership

Dr. Ademola Adeleke

Sir: Kemi Badenoch, a prominent UK politician, recently recounted a disheartening experience where Nigerian police allegedly stole her brother’s shoes and watch. Contrasting this with the professionalism of British police, she attributed such issues in Nigeria to systemic corruption fuelled by poverty. While her critique reflects her frustrations, Badenoch’s position as a leader in a developed country calls for a more constructive, balanced, and culturally rooted approach to addressing these concerns.

Nigeria, like many developing nations, faces deep structural challenges, including weak institutions and economic disparities. However, it also boasts a rich cultural heritage, marked by resilience, unity, and strong family values. Badenoch’s Yoruba roots, which emphasize good character and communal progress, could serve as a foundation for inspiring positive change. Yoruba culture values leadership grounded in discipline, integrity, and a commitment to nation-building. These principles, if embraced, can shape her engagement with both her heritage and her role as a leader in the UK.Rather than focusing solely on Nigeria’s failures, Badenoch could adopt a narrative that critiques while uplifting. Her experiences in the UK offer valuable lessons, but they should not diminish the dignity of her origins. For example, she could highlight stories of Nigerian innovation, cultural achievements, and the successes of its diaspora alongside calls for systemic reform. This balanced approach would foster mutual respect and pride among Nigerians and their global counterparts.Moreover, Badenoch’s position allows her to advocate for policies that strengthen ties between the UK and Nigeria. Initiatives in governance, education, and anti-corruption programs could directly address the issues she identified. Such advocacy would not only underscore her commitment to reform but also reinforce her ties to Nigeria’s development. By leveraging her Yoruba heritage’s emphasis on collective progress, she could inspire Nigerians to embrace leadership that prioritizes accountability, discipline, and national unity.

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Leaders like Badenoch wield significant influence over how the world perceives their countries of origin. While addressing failures is necessary, doing so through a lens of respect and hope is critical. Her ability to navigate the dualities of her Nigerian roots and British upbringing positions her uniquely to foster collaboration, promote shared values, and inspire change.

Badenoch’s reflections resonate with many Nigerians and members of the diaspora who grapple with the contrasts between developing and developed nations. By integrating the values of good character, discipline, and unity from her Yoruba heritage, she can champion a message that critiques without disowning, uplifts without ignoring challenges, and ultimately inspires both Nigeria and its global diaspora toward a shared vision of progress.

•Dr. Ademola Adeleke, Manchester, UK.

December 18, 2024
What is so special about Dele Farotimi?
- By Mike Kebonkwu
Sometimes, silence is just simply golden; leave the bad enough to go away. Chinua Achebe in his inimitable bestseller, Things Fall Apart said that “… the act of conversation is valued highly and proverb is the palm oil with which words are eaten”. There is a saying in the Ika language, a sub ethnic group in Delta State “that a man who takes on the puff adder goes down with”; and “when a man enters the ring with a pig his apparel will be sullied”.

Prosecuting Dele Farotimi is going to rake out many things; dirty and ugly hitherto unknown, including those hidden underbelly of the book which most people may not have read any way. This is true because reading culture is fading away in the main because the younger generation considers education as a scam. In addition, there is also the interpenetration of cell phone and social media which have become huge distractions. People are even more preoccupied with existential issues than reading now considered as luxury and a pastime for a few. If you want to hide anything from a black man or probably a Nigerian, put it in a book.

The matter with Chief Afe Babalola and Dele Farotimi though in the murky waters and realm of the legal arena goes beyond the legal profession. It is not just about justice delivery in Nigeria but a larger problem of corruption and influence peddling by the elites. The lawyers may choose to appropriate the argument to measure their professional ratings and standing but that may not even change the face of reality and perception of the legal profession; the bar and the bench that constitute the third arm of government.

Some of the arguments are out-rightly superficial and pedestrian loaded with sentiments and emotions. It is only coincidental that Farotimi is a lawyer, vocal and extroverted. It could have happened to any class of Nigerian in any other profession whether he is an engineer or a carpenter.

In Nigeria, just as we are loud, we always look out for screaming headlines and news items that are dramatic and sensational like the ‘hunting’ and ‘capture’ of Dele Farotimi. It did not make much of news that Dele Farotimi wrote a book until he was brought from Lagos to Ekiti to face charges for criminal defamation against Chief Afe Babalola, Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN).   His arrest has elicited controversial   public engagements one way or the other depending on the side of the aisle. Farotimi is a political and right activist with caustic tongue, and unsparing and very audacious. Is that the reason why we should pull down the roof? What is the animus, that he has written a book? Yes! But there are many writers and authors before him that have caused some stare.

By the way, writers and authors are weird and sometimes eccentric and controversial people. Farotimi is fearless, brash and courageous and would not just fit into the mode; is that why we should castrate him?

Professor Wole Soyinka in his prison note, “The Man Died”, took on some powerful people; the heavens did not fall.   I do not intend to compare Dele Farotimi with the oracle himself notwithstanding the similarity in their hairstyle. Salman Rushdie wrote the Satanic Verses perceived as an attack on one of the received religions that earned him a fatwa but he was defended by the state. Profane and blasphemous words were and are still spoken of our Lord Jesus Christ; he has not called down fire from heaven or a legion of angel to bring judgment to mankind yet. It has become a master’s stroke that Farotimi has taken on an institution, the judiciary and an iconic and reputable individual that is venerated as a deity; then the heavens must fall!

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What is the argument on the other side, that the book is defamatory of the Ekiti chief or that the judiciary is manipulated by personality cult? If you disagree with his thesis, seek legal remedy and bring your counter argument, not vengeance. The trial of Farotimi is an open sore that will put to test the very issue that he was interrogating in his book. You may not like his gut; you may dislike his face or political activism but Farotimi is a reputable patriot; he is a rebel with a cause.

We may choose to venerate people for whatever reason, but your object of worship may not be another person’s idol. It is shameful that Farotimi was brought to court in handcuff. Was he violent or by any means trying to escape? Humiliating him to break him down is unnecessary vendetta and persecution which should be reserved for the criminals that make our country look big for nothing; profiteers and looters of our common patrimony. Criminals who have looted our treasury and bleeding our country are venerated by the same law enforcement agents and the judiciary. Some felons convicted for treasury looting have been given state pardon and rehabilitated while others are taking refuge in the National Assembly making laws for us.

If Farotimi’s book is offensive, libellous or defamatory or all, then proceed with him in accordance with the law. We have more legal submissions in the court of public opinion via the social media platforms with lawyers pontificating in equal measures the position of the law whether libel or defamation is a civil or penal offence. Justice on social media platforms and court of public opinion is mob justice. Let the court first decide the matter one way or the other before seeking the instrumentality of the law to stop the circulation of the book. To procure court orders in all fronts at the same time when the main cause of action has not been determined is stifling of free speech and a gross abuse of power.

This is the same way the Pharisees asked for the armed robber to be released to them and condemned Jesus Christ who had no sin. That is the same mob justice that we are embracing with relish. Look at the onerous bail condition given to the man in relation to the offence. The scale of justice must be fair and balance not oppressive. Some of our judges are actually not corrupt but it is our misfortune that they are corruptly recruited by a system where clearly they do not command the right competences for the rigor of the intellectual demand for the office of a judge. They are therefore misled by appearance, name and social status. While free speech is not a licence to demonize others, aggrieved individuals should pursue justice in open handed manner instead of playing god!

•Kebonkwu Esq writes via mikekebonkwu@yahoo.com
December 17, 2024
Activism must have limits

The word “Activism” has been sitting pretty in our political lexicon without being harassed until recently. Three triggers are responsible for my decision to sink my teeth into the rhetoric of activism. One, the 10-day protest that took place in August this year. Two, the threats by the labour unions to ground the states that have not done the needful on the recently approved minimum wage. Three, the threat by some activists to go on a protest over the detention of a lawyer activist Dele Farotimi. If you permit that these three issues can be regarded as constituting examples of activism, we can go further from there.

But let me first give you a few examples of my own activism as a young man. I went to secondary school in Ikot Ekpene, more than 20 kilometres from my village. I sat on the frame of a bicycle while my luggage sat on the back. I did that treacherous routine for five years (1960-1964). I thought that was torture, pure punishment that only a child who felt really thirsty for education could endure. Then an interesting story started floating in our locality: the Catholic Church was about to build a secondary school for us. Joy filled my heart. I knew that children from our area will no longer have to do a long and difficult journey to get secondary school education. But my joy was short-lived because the leaders of Qua Iboe Church were up in arms against the idea. They did not want a secondary school established by the Catholics in the area.

Why? Because they did not want the children converted to Catholicism. I was hopping mad. If you don’t want that, why don’t you establish a school owned and run by Qua Iboe Church? I did not care about the colour of religion but I was interested in a school in my neighbourhood. So, I kicked. My parents were staunch members of Qua Iboe Church, so was every other member of my family. I told my parents I was leaving that church in protest. They did not stop or scold me. And when the big leaders of the church learnt of my protest, they invited me for a meeting. At the meeting, I told them that I was leaving the church in protest against their opposition to the establishment of a Catholic secondary school. They tried to dissuade me, but the stubbornness in me was fully awake. I left Qua Iboe Church.

My second story of activism took place in the 70s. As a young reporter in the Nigerian Chronicle in Calabar, I was assigned to go and do a feature article in the oil producing areas of present day Akwa Ibom State. What I saw, the high level of neglect of the area, horrified me. As a young graduate with an acute sense of right and wrong, I faithfully documented this in a series of articles which I described as “Living Hell”. After the publication of the series, I went back to the community and told the village chief that I wanted to organize the youths to mount a protest. He agreed. We blocked the access road and prevented the oil company from working. It worked. The oil company woke up and provided amenities for the community because of my activism which was, luckily for me, unknown to my employers.

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During the protests mounted from August 1-10, I wondered why it had to last that long. It was a fair deal to have a one-day or two-day protest against the hardship that Nigerians were going through, but 10 days was obviously excessive. I knew that once it was allowed to last that long, something was likely to go wrong, seriously wrong. In every protest group, there are usually three sets of people: a) the leaders who want the goals of the protest achieved. b) the followers who share the vision of the leaders, and c) the rabble rousers and hoodlums who want nothing but action. These are the trouble-makers within the group who want an immediate impact and the destruction of public and private property; they do not mind bringing innocent children into the wahala, children who know nothing about the vision of the protest. Those are the ones who provided Russian flags to youngsters and told them to burn down anything in sight. Those are the ones and always bring madness and mayhem into activism. Those are the ones who give activism a bad name.

For years now, the labour movements – NLC, TUC and ASUU have been in the eye of the storm for one house-keeping matter or the other. I fully support the efforts of the unions to get a better deal for working class Nigerians because it is they, the workers, that make Nigeria either tick or tumble. However, the modus operandi of some of the labour leaders leaves a lot to be desired. Some of them talk flippantly, telling us they will “ground the country” or “they will ground the economy”.

If you ground the economy, how does the worker benefit? If you ground the economy, the factories will shut down, their revenue base will shrink and there will be job losses or pay cuts. How have they helped the workers?

My second point of disagreement with some of the unions is their failure to accept that workers’ wages depend on productivity. Labour leaders hardly talk of productivity but it is productivity that brings revenue from which workers are paid. Without higher productivity, there cannot be higher revenue from which workers can be paid. The other point to note is that some of the unionists tend to make every agitation or activism a national event. How do you explain the fact that a problem exists in one state yet the unionists feel that for them to be seen to be successful, the impact must be nationwide? This happened when the NLC had a problem with the Imo State government. They decided to block flights from Abuja to Owerri, thus inflicting undue punishment on innocent passengers and airlines.

The unionist must learn to limit the acreage of punishment that they must inflict on those who have offended them. On the other hand, I think they need to understand that certain activities affect workers in the short or long run. I expect them to speak out and agitate for improvement in such areas, which will eventually affect the wellbeing of workers. The four refineries have been dead for years without any serious agitation by the unions for their revival. Many federal industries such as the Ajaokuta Steel, Aluminium Smelting Plant, the Paper Mills in three states, etc. are all stone dead. Shouldn’t the labour leaders speak up about those idle industries which affect Nigerian workers? And now, the latest by the activists is the plan to mount a protest in favour of Dele Farotimi over his detention. The gentleman is said to have a criminal defamation case in a matter involving a Senior Advocate, Chief Afe Babalola. This is not a matter for protest or activism. It is purely a legal matter that only the courts can decide. Those who want to help Farotimi can do so in two ways: a) Help to secure bail for him, and b) hire for him the best lawyers that money can buy. Mounting a demonstration on this sort of matter will amount to recklessness and an abuse of power of activism even if Farotimi is an activist.

I have watched him a few times on television and I noticed three things about him. His hair is shaggy like that of a disc jockey. He speaks eloquently and that impressed me. He was always driving his points to the border of recklessness and it was obvious that if the anchor of the programme did not restrain him, he would have put the anchor and the TV station in trouble. I haven’t read his book that is said to become a controversial best seller, but since it has become a matter for judicial attention, we will get to know sooner or later whether his activism has been conducted within the limits of the law or not or within the limits of propriety or not.

December 17, 2024
al-Assad’s fall and fallouts

He withstood a gruelling insurgency in his country for more than 13 years. But when rebel fighters moved to oust him early last week, it took less than two weeks for their final push that resulted in his fall. Bashar al-Assad was kicked out in Syria to end his 24-year-long hold on power. His ouster ended more than 50 years of Assad family rule in the Middle East country, having in 2000 succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad, who in 1970 seized power in a coup to become Syria’s ruler till his death.

Assad’s staying power amidst the turbulence of the volatile region was fabled. Following the eruption of the Arab Spring that saw no fewer than four Arab rulers flushed out of power by mass uprisings, opposition fighters took up arms in 2011 to press for regime change in Syria. Protests rocked many other Mideast countries but elicited different outcomes, with conflicts recorded in Tunisia, Algeria, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Djibouti, Sudan, Palestine, Iraq, Bahrain, Libya, Kuwait, Morocco, Mauritania, and at the borders of both Lebanon and Israel. Rulers who fell as a direct result of the uprisings were Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia in 2011, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya in 2011, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in 2011, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen in 2012. Assad’s survival in Syria largely informed media rephrasing of the term ‘Arab Spring’ as ‘Arab Winter,’ referring to the deterioration of many of the conflicts into drawn-out sectarian strife and armed violence with no immediate consequential change.

Assad waged a brutal war against insurgents to retain his hold on power. In August 2013, he unleashed sarin gas attack on a densely populated rebel-held suburb near Damascus, killing more than 1,400 civilians, among them hundreds of children. The attack was despite a warning by then United States President Barak Obama that use of chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict was a red line not to be crossed. Obama did not follow through on moving against Assad, perhaps dissuaded by the venture of his predecessor, George W. Bush, into a war in the Gulf region following the 11th September, 2001 attack on American homeland that became a wearisome mire for the country. There were other reports of chemical weapon usage by the Assad regime, but none as severe as the August 2013 incident.

The stunning overthrow of Assad penultimate Sunday came nearly 14 years after Syrians rose in peaceful protests against his government, whereas he met them with violent repression that spiralled into a bloody civil war. For their last stand, a coalition of opposition fighters launched a major offensive against pro-government forces on 27th November at the front line between opposition-held Idlib and neighbouring governorate of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. They seized that city and from there captured other strategic towns previously held by Assad’s government, and then marched on the capital city of Damascus that they took on 8th December. Their push against the capital encountered little resistance from soldiers loyal to Assad, who fled into exile reportedly in Russia.

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Syrian insurgents reached the precincts of Damascus on Saturday, 7th December, in a rapid offensive that saw them take over some of the country’s largest cities. It was reportedly the first time that opposition forces were reaching Damascus since 2018, when Syrian troops recaptured areas on the outskirts of the capital city following a years-long siege. The fighters were led by the most notable insurgent group in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, along with factional Turkish-backed rebel militias under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army. The rebels opened up Assad regime’s prisons along their path and set free political prisoners held inside.

Analysts ascribed the lightning speed of Assad’s fall to both internal and external factors, though more of external ones. Internally, there was Syria’s struggle with its economy that had tanked and leaned heavily on illicit trade in psychoactive substances for a breather. Assad had become hugely unpopular as Syrians found it tougher to survive, including his soldiers who mostly no longer wanted to fight for him. Soldiers and police officers were reported abandoning their posts, handing over their weapons and fleeing ahead of opposition advance. When Assad himself was fleeing Syria via Damascus international airport on 8th December, the facility was only momentarily secured by his soldiers who abandoned it immediately thereafter, allowing for easy take-over by approaching rebel fighters. Even Assad’s prime minister, Mohammed al-Jalali, seemed eager to hand over power to the rebels.

On the external front, the Assad regime had been weak militarily for some years and had relied heavily on Russia and Iran as props. Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group, Hezbollah, was also a mainstay of the Syrian regime. But Russia is presently bogged down in its invasion of Ukraine while Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, have been degraded by Israeli attacks over the Gaza war and could not readily support the faltering Syrian army. In the final days of the rebel offensive, the Russian military mounted intense airstrikes against them in support of Assad’s army. But it was apparently too little too late to halt the dictator’s fall. The strikes followed what was the boldest rebel assault for years in a civil war where the front lines had largely been frozen since 2020.

United States President-elect Donald Trump described the situation quite graphically. In a post on his Truth Social platform, he commented: “Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers (Russia later denied the stats) lay wounded or dead in a war that should never have started and could go on forever. Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now – one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success…”

Even though Assad was a Moscow ally, the United States has some troops in eastern Syria posted to keep Islamic State (ISIS) fighters at bay. On the heels of the dictator’s ouster, U.S. officials confirmed that Iranian forces who had been defending him had “pretty much” evacuated from Syria. They further noted that Russia, his main foreign backer, is busy with its war in Ukraine while Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah, which at some point sent thousands of fighters to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by the year-long conflict with Israel. Meanwhile, Iran has seen its other proxies across the region also degraded by regular Israeli airstrikes.

The new power in Syria, HTS, once known as the Nusra Front, is itself designated a terrorist group by the U.S., Russia, Turkey and other states. But with Assad out of the equation, Israel has one headache less to deal with in the boiling geopolitical cauldron, especially now that its hand may be further strengthened by Trump when he takes office from January, next year. Already, Israel has seized on Assad’s fall to launch airstrikes on Syrian ports and missile warehouses while ground troops push deeper into Syrian Golan Heights, effectively expanding Israeli occupation.

The Syrian civil war was rated among the bloodiest in the 21st Century, claiming more than 500,000 lives including those of 164,000 civilians as of March 2024, according to United Kingdom-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Over the years, Syria’s neighbors including Turkey, Israel and Iran were drawn into the conflict to varying degrees, along with outside powers like Russia and the United States. It was in September 2015 that Putin intervened to support Assad militarily and, along with Iran and Hezbollah, became one of its key backers. The conflict was also a factor in the rise of ISIS, a terror group that at its height controlled about 30 percent of Syria and, though not directly involved in the rebel offensive, has sleeper cells in Syria’s deserts. Reports, last week, cited a top Syrian commander warning that the terror group was taking advantage of Assad’s overthrow to resurge.

The temptation is strong to feel unconcerned in this clime about goings-on in Syria. But if ISIS regains a foothold because of Assad’s fall, even far-flung regions could feel its terror vibes, and that not exempting our own. Wisdom is to proactively erect security shields against such eventuality.

•Please join me on kayodeidowu.blogspot.be for conversation.

December 16, 2024