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  • Afe Babalola and Dele Farotimi: on justice, just society and the Nigerian state

    Afe Babalola and Dele Farotimi: on justice, just society and the Nigerian state

    The feud between elder statesman, Chief Afe Babalola and civil right activist, Mr. Dele Farotimi, is perhaps the most significant discourse that postcolonial Nigerian state has thrown up for the moment, one in a class of those grand defining disputations that sure will gather dust which will take some time to abate. And it is one case that is fraught with all sorts of legal, jurisprudential, moral and political traps and complexities that speak to more than the trivial interventions—leveraged around the David and Goliath motif—that are attending the matter. Those who have been able to go beyond the surface of the case will agree that it goes to the very foundation and founding of the Nigerian society, and the fundamental objective of crafting a good and just society for Nigerians. That the issue revolves around the dispensation of justice immediately alerts us to the deep insinuation about the idea of social justice itself, and how the conception of fairness could be written into the very fabric of the Nigerian society.

    And yet, the complexity of the case is what makes it a case that is too critical for a public servant like me to dabble in. (Un)fortunately, my intellectual maturation, my political science education and my professional endeavor in institutional reform advocacy have prepared me to intervene in this critical matter. I have always been involved with Nigeria, and with reflective thoughts about how to reconstitute her greatness. Three learning encounters with three world-historic icons configured my passion for wanting to see that Nigeria becomes a state we all can be proud of. The first came from my reading of Plato’s Republic. There is a reason that the entire treatise commenced with the question, what is justice? Justice was a fundamental issue in the decline of the ancient Athenian democracy that allowed Socrates to be judicially murdered. The second learning derived from Wole Soyinka’s dense prison memoir, The Man Died. And like most who have read it, Soyinka was troubled by the idea of justice: “For me, justice is the first condition of humanity.” By the time I would be coming to Thomas More’s Utopia, I was already apprised of the connections between my political science education, my professional endeavor as a public servant, and the key elements of institutional reform as a cogent framework for transforming Nigeria.

    From Plato to Soyinka, we have a trajectory of political reflection that takes justice seriously as the basis for organizing a just society. This is part of the intellectual frameworks for my undergraduate and graduate studies at the Department of Political Science, University of Ibadan. In one of those explosive seminar classes that played some fundamental role in my intellectual maturation in the graduate school, I had proposed an argument through a seminar paper titled: “Is a revolution an option to fix Nigeria?” The topic was meant to titillate the collective yearning for revolution that would serve as the ultimate mechanism for social change that will flush off all traces of corruption and degeneration in postcolonial Nigeria. Revolutions seem to possess some allure for the masses because they constitute a framework of justice that the constitutional justice mechanism might not be able to handle.

    However, as Wole Soyinka, Thomas More, Martin Luther and even Galileo Galilei would realize, the need for radicalism is balanced by the force of establishment orthodoxy. The Nigerian predicament has, as a fundamental foundation, lot to do with the connection between governance failure and injustice in terms of the persistent and protracted class strife between the haves and the have-nots, between the rich and the poor, indeed, in the final analysis between the government and the governed. And in the case between Afe Babalola and Dele Farotimi, the issues boil down to the administration of justice and the entire edifices and institutions of social justice and the rule of law in Nigeria. And so, in outlining the key issues involved in the matter, we must be careful enough to read between the lines and the noises of analysts who are eager to queue behind their favored protagonists.

    Read Also: Defamation debate: Between Afe Babalola and Dele Farotimi

    First things first. Let us remove the surface debris. Indeed, and in this case, the debris points us in the direction to look for the rot within the matter. First, there is the matter of civil defamation and its legal ramifications. And second, there is the issue of the legal and moral protocols involved in dealing with the pursuit of redress by someone who knows and understands the law. Barrister Farotimi has a legal right to seek redress in court. Chief Babalola has a legal right to defend his reputation in court. In raising the specter of legal prosecution against defamation, I see Chief Babalola as being at the forefront of gatekeeping the legal establishment in terms of what is and is not permissible or possible under the law and its conservative tenets. If you are hurt or an injustice has been done to your person, then the best place to seek redress is not the court of public opinion but the constitutional legal establishment. Unfortunately for him, Barrister Farotimi’s book, Nigeria and Its Criminal Justice System, impugned the entire legal and judicial establishment up to its apex institution, the Nigerian Supreme Court. However, does radicalism preclude moral decency? A book could be written and allegations made without the complement of atrocious language. Or maybe the rot in the judicial system, and the need for a revolution preclude any niceties, especially with those who are allegedly at the forefront of perpetuating and protecting the rot. But then, how to prove what we all considered to be the norm in terms of legal prosecution of judicial corruption remains a hanging question?      

    No matter how we look at what we are calling the surface debris, we are redirected deeper and deeper into what lies beneath the surface. The ultimate question is that between Chief Afe Babalola and Barrister Dele Farotimi, what we are asked to contend with is the state of the Nigerian judiciary and the corrupt impediment of social justice, especially for an average Nigerian. What Barrister Dele Farotimi said about the Nigeria judicial system is not new. We are all familiar with the rot within the system. Indeed, this is not the first time an alarm would be raised about what we are all familiar with. Indeed, as far back as 1999, The News magazine carried a most unsalutary headline, “Crooks on the Bench: An Expose on the Rot in the Judiciary.” The magazine headlined the names of 47 judges indicted for judicial corruption. What is new is that Dele Farotimi dared to go so far as to mention specific names, and to confront the big players in the legal establishment. And he did this in a most scurrilous manner targeted at getting maximum traction and attention. It is as if Mr Farotimi, through the public sphere, is throwing the gauntlet to every Nigerian and challenging us on our collective responsibility to clean the Augean stable.

    If Barrister Farotimi cannot prove his allegations in court, it would not mean that his charges are false. It might only imply that the system which is supposed to guarantee justice has become too corruptly dense to achieve its mandate. But there is also the chance that since the entire judicial system cannot be tarred so broadly with the same brush, Farotimi’s allegation might receive a dispassionate hearing that might deliver justice as we expect it. This might be a tall expectation. Nigeria’s postcolonial predicament has inevitable consequences on the capacity of the judicial system to facilitate the delivery of justice. And this failure also complicates the capacity of the Nigerian state to deliver on its social contract to Nigerians. This is what makes the Babalola-Farotimi case too complex to be decided either in the constitutional court or the court of public opinion. The burdens of postcolonial disruptions that the Nigerian judicial system carries are enormous: judicial corruption, miscarriage of judgments, executive lawlessness, delayed trial due to insufficient infrastructure, financial dependence on the executive arm of government

    To outline the fundamental challenges of the judicial system in Nigeria this way is not to give in to cynicism and a deterministic mindset that we might be caught in a vice that is inescapable. It is simply to say that the ongoing uproar between the two dramatis personae demonstrates that the court has been given a chance to reflect on the role that (in)justice plays in the fundamental understanding of the Nigerian postcolonial predicament and the capacity of a democratic system to correct itself. When Chief Afe Babalola and Barrister Dele Farotimi are given their day in court, we will have no choice but to trust that same judicial system to deliver unbiased judgment no matter our misgivings about how objective and untainted that judgment could be. This is just a way of saying that though our judicial system is not perfect; it is still the best that we have.

    The last words on this reflection on the connection between the ongoing feud between Babalola and Farotimi and Nigeria’s postcolonial predicament must be given to Haile Sellasie, former emperor of Ethiopia: “Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph.” 

    • Prof. Olaopa, is Chairman, Federal Civil Service Commission, Abuja & Professor of Public Administration
    • tolaopa2003@gmail.com
  • Functional Bayelsa Airport and the new vista of opportunities

    Functional Bayelsa Airport and the new vista of opportunities

    • By Jonah Okah

    FOR some time, the plan by the Bayelsa State government to acquire aircraft at the cost of N25billion has generated mixed reactions. The project which was approved by the State Executive Council (SEC) and the House of Assembly has been misconstrued in many quarters. For development enthusiasts, the plan should be applauded instead of being used for making political capital by opposition groups.

    It is understandable that the attack inspired by a handful of opposition elements in the state, describing it as a misplaced priority was not properly viewed from the broad spectrum.

    Governor Douye Diri, known for his tolerance of opposition and dissenting views, took such criticisms with equanimity with an uncommon determination to leave behind life-transforming legacy projects, with a strong conviction that he would eventually be remembered for positive impact in the fullness of time.

    The idea to build an international airport in Bayelsa dates back to the administration of Chief Timipre Sylva between 2007 and 2012.

    As governor, Sylva embarked on the project by expending huge resources on contractors for only clearing of the old site around the Okordia-Zarama; yet the project never saw light of day until he left office. While the resources expended on the clearing of the old site went down the drain, when the immediate past Governor Henry Seriake Dickson came on board, he nurtured the idea to reality, by placing it among his key priorities.

    The airport project was executed to advanced stage by Dickson while his successor Diri took it to completion about three years ago in the spirit of continuity and for the overall benefit of Bayelsans.

    The state of fanfare was overwhelming when Diri commissioned the airport with commercial flight operations when a United Nigeria Airline aircraft touched down at about 3:45pm on that fateful day.

    The aircraft which took off from the Murtala Muhammed 2 Airport in Lagos had on board Diri, the airline chairman’s, Chief Obiora Okonkwo, Tokyo Olympics silver medalist in wrestling, Blessing Oborududu, King Alfred Diete Spiff, Boladei Igali, representatives of state at the National Assembly, State House of Assembly members, commissioners among other prominent leaders of the state.

    It was a historic moment as a mammoth crowd of jubilant Bayelsans thronged the airport to witness the historic event.

    The delighted governor could not hold back his joy, when he noted that, “the commencement of the commercial flight signalled economic development of the state, bringing Bayelsa to the world and the world to the state”.

    He further said: “This significant event is the culmination of the aspirations birthed by former state governor late Chief Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, which was eventually built by Senator Seriake Dickson, my predecessor. And it is under my administration that this project was crystalised. This is a demonstration that teamwork truly works”.

    The runway was described by the pilot of United Nigeria Airline as one of the best in the country. An elated Diri expressed his determination to make Bayelsa truly ‘the Glory of All Lands’ and the state a construction site.

    This is where critics of the N25billion approved by the State Executive Council to procure aircraft missed the point in their arm-twisting and distractive criticisms. Rather than appreciating the vision, short term and long term benefits of the project, they have resorted to making cheap political capital out of nothing. The truth remains that it is a project of necessity and not for ostentatious expenditure on recurrent matters.

    Read Also: Inside the plight of Bayelsa’s oil-producing communities

    It is in this vein that Diri needs to be appreciated over the futuristic initiative that air transportation will open up the state to the rest of the world, measured in terms of attracting investors coming to take advantage of the investment opportunities that abound in the state, particularly in the area of oil and gas and other comparative advantages in fishery.

    It will further complement land and sea transportation, particularly the proposed Agge Seaport at Ekeremor area of the state.

    In the broad sense, the project will go a long way to propel Bayelsa to becoming the fastest growing economy in the West African sub region, a state which ranks top in the nation’s production of oil and gas. Investors will not go through the trouble of coming to the state via the Port Harcourt airport, as the new airport provides the much-needed direct flight.

    Besides the fact that the aircraft will serve as a huge asset for revenue generation, rather than a liability as erroneously being perceived by critics, the planes will reduce the cost of depending on hired aircraft for operational purposes, making the service epileptic to passengers.

    There is no doubt Bayelsa is endowed with tourism potentials. It is a fact too that tourism is all about celebration of infrastructure, of which transportation is a critical component. So, it is not an overstatement to say that the state government’s bold initiative to acquire aircraft for commercial operations is indeed a project critical to the shared vision of Bayelsans towards making the state a tourist destination and hub of business.

    All over the world, air transportation is the fastest means of connecting regions and Bayelsa cannot be left out in connecting the world to the state, which the people of the state stand to reap the multiplier benefits of having a large source of revenue generation.

    Moreover, we are in era of placing premium on exploring the non-oil sector, rather than depending on allocation from the central government with cap in hand. Therefore, with the state-owned aircraft, it will be a new dawn, as the state  will  not only proudly join the international committee of airline operators, it will also open a new vista of business opportunities and will definitely place the economic openings in the state on the world map.

    Contrary to the stereotyped opinions that it is not a priority project, critics should be told that the aircraft had already created employment opportunities for brothers and sisters of the critics Bayelsa. It has taken off the streets several unemployed youths that were loitering in search of jobs, who have been fully engaged.

    The former first military governor of old Rivers State and Amayanabo of Twon Brass, King Alfred Diete-Spiff aptly said: “With the airport in place, it will open a plethora of economic opportunities and place the state on the world map.”

    The critics will definitely agree that Diri has made a bold statement in governance, that it is not all about wasting fund or sharing fund to every household, but the sheer determination to create the enabling environment for a public-private partnership enterprise to thrive for the sustainable development of the state for which dividends are already trickling in.

    The fact remains that Diri has an eye on history and the indices of his infrastructure development point to the fact that the fair judgment of history will certainly smile at him in the fullness of time.

    Therefore, the plan to acquire new aircraft for commercial operations is a project well-placed to provide a new vista of opportunities for the overall development of Bayelsa State.

    • Okah, a journalist/development enthusiast wrote from Yenagoa.
  • Kemi Badenoch: It’s time for a rethink

    Kemi Badenoch: It’s time for a rethink

    • By Tunde Rahman

    Kemi Badenoch‘s ill-advised denigration of Nigeria has refused to go away. Her belittlement of the country of her ancestry is still generating passionate public discourse within and outside the media space, and it appears the matter will not go away anytime soon.

    Exasperated by Kemi Badenoch’s misguided attacks on Nigeria, Vice President Kashim Shettima recently counseled her to drop the Kemi in her name and bleach her ebony skin to white to further appease her Tory party and British establishment. And perturbed and seemingly lost by all that, my daughter, Kemi Mushinat, who recently graduated in Communication Studies, asked what was wrong with the name Kemi. There is nothing wrong with the name, I explained. But a lot is wrong with Kemi Badenoch (Nee Adegoke), the Leader of the British opposition Conservative Party, who opted to behave, as the Yoruba would describe it, “bi omo ale to fi owo osi ju we ile baba e”, meaning like a bastard who would go out to denigrate her ancestry by pointing the offensive finger at her roots.

    Honour and dignity are inherent in the name Oluwakemi, indeed in any name. But what confers dignity, what glorifies a name, is the character the bearer brings into it. Kemi Badenoch left much to be desired, disparaging Nigeria, our motherland. She painted a gory picture of her growing up years in Nigeria from the middle of the 80s to around 1996, highlighting stories of poverty, infrastructure decay, decadence, corruption, police excesses, and leadership failure.

    Perhaps some of her narratives could be true, particularly in the time that immediately followed the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) misrule and the indiscretion of the emergent military regime. However, her stories reek of generalisations and prejudices often associated with most analyses by a section of Western media and commentators. They view Nigeria with their jaundiced lenses, describing the country as made of a Muslim North and Christian South, oblivious of the various Christian minorities in the North and, the plethora of Muslims in the South and the multiplicity of ethnic groups in the two divides that make a mockery of any analysis of a monolithic North or South. They view us Africans with many unproven, unorthodox assumptions.

    My problem is with Mrs. Badenoch, an African, whichever way you slice it, and the character she has chosen. When Vice President Shettima lambasted her for demeaning Nigeria, Kemi Badenoch thought she had a clincher:

    “I find it interesting that everybody defines me as Nigerian,” she said. “I identify less with the country than with the specific ethnicity (Yoruba). That’s what I am. I have nothing in common with the people from the North of the country, the Boko Haram where the Islamism is; those were our ethnic enemies and yet you end up being lumped in with those people.”

    In that statement, the Tory leader disavowed Nigeria and excoriated the North but exalted the Yoruba. She repudiated the whole, attacking one part of the nation but embracing another. Kemi Badenoch grossly misfired, hiding under the finger of ethnic nationalism.

    Read Also: Kemi Badenoch and Yoruba values

    Perhaps it would have been pardonable if, for instance, she opposed Nigeria’s federal system and canvassed regionalism or confederacy. To condemn one race and elevate another is like playing one part against another. That utterance is dangerous in a diverse and volatile society like ours. The North (read the Hausa-Fulani, Kanuri, Tiv, Birom, Mangu, Ibira, Nupe, and many others who cohabit the entire Northern region) is no enemy of the Yoruba as Mrs Badenoch insinuated. The North voted massively for Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, a Yoruba man, to emerge president in 2023, as they did for the late Bashorun MKO Abiola, the winner of the annulled June 12 election in 1993. To label them the enemies of the Yoruba is condemnable.

    Badenoch’s Yoruba roots emphasise good character and promote good neighbourliness, religious harmony, peaceful co-existence, respect for elders, and respect for other people’s rights. That is why Yoruba intermarry with members of different ethnic groups. It’s also commonplace in Yorubaland to find members of the same family having adherents of Islam and Christianity cohabiting together without any hassles. Boko Haram or its last vestiges poses a security challenge, perhaps a religious and sociopolitical challenge, for Nigeria, not just for the North or the North-east  which is why the government and our armed forces have battled to a standstill and are still battling the insurgents.

    Therefore, the values the UK Conservative leader espoused did not represent the Yoruba. They are not the values the Yoruba would showcase, uphold, and promote. Yoruba has a rich history of culture, tradition, leadership, and loyalty to constituted authority.

    Mrs Badenoch’s formative years, which she derided with negative stories of decadence, perfidy, and corruption, were part of Nigeria’s dark periods when the military held the country and the people by the jugular.

    Is Kemi Badenoch now giving the impression that nothing has changed in Nigeria, particularly in Lagos, where she grew up after birth in London? Is she giving the impression there have not been significant improvements in the standard of living and infrastructure, with the rehabilitation of existing roads and opening up of new ones; in transportation with the multi-modal system complemented by water transportation and now the rail system, among other things? Despite its challenges, there is no doubt there has been a remarkable development in Lagos from the foundation laid by then Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu (now President Tinubu) from 1999 to 2007 till the present Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu to the point that Lagos has emerged as one of largest economies in Africa.  Lagos State has made significant progress across all indices of development such that if it were a country, it would have ranked the sixth largest economy on the continent.

    What has emerged in the entire Kemi Badenoch’s saga is her seeming double-face or multiple-face. When she was campaigning to represent her diverse Dulwich and West Norwood Constituency in the UK Parliament in 2010, she had appealed to the Nigerian community, comprising Yoruba, Hausa-Fulani and Igbo, under the aegis of “Nigerians for Kemi Badenoch,” pleading for help in the election. A campaign document that surfaced on social media showed she had reached out to all Nigerians in that constituency while highlighting her roots. In that document, Badenoch had said to her Nigerian supporters:

    “I need your help. I’m running for parliament in the 2010 UK general elections. The race is very tight. Last year, the News of the World surveyed this constituency, and the forecast was that I would win. Things are much tougher this year as the party has dropped nationally in the polls. I need your help.

    “I am asking for your help now to support a Nigerian trying to improve our national image and do something great here.”

    After winning the election, however, she deployed her situation in Nigeria as a talking point to rally support for her policies, for which she was accused of exploiting her roots for political gains.

    Her rhetoric has drastically changed with her emergence as the Leader of the Conservative Party. In the carriage, conduct and statements, she is now out to please the White establishment, particularly the White wing of her Conservative Party, subjugating her people to make Britain look good. She doesn’t mind running down anyone, including the Nigerian people and the British blacks generally.

    Will this advance her politics or status? I do not think so. The British respect culture and tradition. Running down a country’s history and culture may not attract much attention. Britain also respects her relations with other countries, particularly Nigeria, given our age-long relationship. Nigeria is a significant trade and investment partner of the UK in Africa. According to the UK Department for Business and Trade, as of December 20 2024, the total trade in goods and services (exports plus imports) between the UK and Nigeria amounted to £7.2 billion in the four quarters up to the end of Q2 2024, an increase of 1.2% or £86 million in current prices from the four quarters to the end of Q2 2023.

    Britain would not want to harm that substantial trade partnership and excellent relationship between the two countries in any way.

    Also, several Badenoch’s Conservative Party members do not share her attitude towards Nigeria. In Zanzibar, I recently ran into Jake Berry, a top Tory Party member and former Cabinet member in the UK. While discussing the Badenoch matter, he said most Conservative Party members disagreed with her.

    Kemi Badenoch has recorded an outstanding achievement in two decades of entering British politics. She joined the Conservative Party at the age of 25. Today, she stands not just as the Leader of the biggest party in Britain’s history but also as the highest black person in the United Kingdom. Her extraordinary accomplishment should have been used to inspire young people to achieve similar feats and as a foundation to inspire positive change in her country of origin, not to denigrate Nigeria or cause division and disaffection among her people. It is not too late for Mrs Badenoch to rethink and toe the line of rectitude.

    • Rahman is Senior Special Assistant on Media Matters to President Tinubu.
  • China-Africa prospects in 2025 and beyond

    China-Africa prospects in 2025 and beyond

    • By Charles Onunaiju

    The outgoing year of 2024 has been phenomenally significant in relations and cooperation between Africa and China and this is not because it has been less significant in the past, but because in a particular tense period in the world, it stayed stable and entered a new era of high quality engagement and “elevated to an all-weather community with a shared future”.

    President Xi Jinping pointed to its historic trajectories when he noted that “the friendship between China and Africa transcends time and space, surmounts mountains and oceans and passes down through generations’.

    While scholars of international relations and world politics makes claim to the tiresome theory that nations proceed from the cold calculus of strict national interest in interactions with others, giving scope to zero sum game in which one must loose for another to gain, China – Africa cooperation has significantly up-ended the audacity of such assumptions, giving concrete expression that international cooperation and partnerships have consequences for win-win outcomes and mutual benefits.

    The outgoing year 2024 witnessed escalation of tensions in many parts of the world. The Russia/Ukraine conflict reached a dangerous level amidst nuclear threats with obvious ramifications for the rest of the world. The Israeli’s war in Gaza also threatened to spiral out of control and engulf the whole region with Iran dragged into the mix and the U.S presidential election appeared more like a civil war than a political contest with a leading presidential candidate barely escaping two assassination attempts.

    Despite that Donald Trump won convincingly and decisively, the American “civil war” is far from over. Major European countries – Germany, France, and Netherlands witness political upsets with ruling parties shaken to their roots. The European Union’s bureaucracy, having betted on the war-enabling U.S Joe Biden presidency and its surrogate,  Kamala Harris, look hopelessly hollowed out as Trump looks forward to cut a deal with Russia leader, Vladimir Putin to end Europe’s most fratricidal war since the 1940’s.

    Amidst the turbulence, Africa and China strengthened engagement which culminated to the summit of the heads of state and government of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) which held in Beijing in September. More than 50 Heads of States and government, including the Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu showed up in Beijing, with the exception of the tiny Estwani, formerly Swaziland still struggling to come to terms with the African consensus that there is only one China in the world (People’s Republic of China) whose government in Beijing is the sole and legitimate representative of all the Chinese people including their 22 million compatriots in the Taiwan Island.

    The summit as widely expected lived up to expectations. President Tinubu attending for the first time said that “the African spirit for FOCAC is based upon mutual respect and partnership that promote development, happiness, peace and stability”, and also added that “we are in this journey together”. As it is usual with the tradition of the FOCAC process, the summit delivered a compelling practical outcome, setting the stage for follow-up engagements.

    Before outlining the 10 partnership action plans for the two sides, President Xi Jinping dropped the iconic words on marble that “China and Africa account for one-third of the world population. Without our modernization, there will be no global modernization”, describing modernization as “an inalienable right of all countries”. The 10 action plans to be implemented in the next  three years covered areas of mutual learning among civilizations, trade prosperity, industrial chain cooperation, connectivity, health, agriculture and livelihoods, people-to-people and cultural exchanges, green development and common security. All these areas of cooperation were products of vigorous and extensive consultations resulting in consensus on the roadmap for implementations.

    The 2025 would be a pivotal year for the implementation of the outcomes of the summit and so far activities have demonstrated considerable commitments by relevant parties to dutifully carry out their responsibilities. The Nigeria government whose leader President Tinubu participated both at the summit and also paid his first state visit to China on the invitation of President XI Jinping established a special directorate and appointed Director-General for Nigeria-China strategic partnership who “will lead day-to-day operation, engage continuously with the Chinese counterparts and ensure that all deliverables are met and synchronized with national development goals”.

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    This is the first time in Nigeria’s international relations that a special directorate is created to oversee the implementation of the outcomes of the country’s bilateral engagement and specific multilateral fora. On the other hand, the Chinese Ambassador Yu Dunhai, who arrived at his post in Abuja just barely a month before the summit in Beijing expressed his total commitment not only to ensure implementations of the outcomes but also  to its translation into concrete benefits for the two sides.

    Given that the stage is set for China and Africa to walk the talk, the year 2025 will be a significant turning point for a cooperation that has traditionally aimed to scale new heights and gains new impetus.

    To infuse the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) with the type of vitality that it deserves, foreign direct investment flows for which China is well known for, is vastly needed. On average, China invest about $340 million across the world on daily basis  and a good slice of it will significantly impact Africa’s foreign investment drive.

    Against the background of the mounting rhetoric of the U.S president-elect Donald Trump who is ideologically addicted to trade tariff hikes, notwithstanding its economic backlash, Chinese enterprises will likely hedge their bets to a more welcoming and a less politically volatile economic landscape that Africa can offer.

    It means, African countries should take advantage of the traditional political goodwill that exist with Beijing and create the enabling economic conditions with significant focus on cutting red tape and offering concessional tax incentives for prospective Chinese enterprises. With the right policy mix that combines with the demographic advantage and potentials for green development, African active industrial and capacity production cooperation with China can help the region inherit the mantle of the “workshop of the world”, and inject the world economy with a fresh dynamism.

    Europe and America are currently engrossed in the disruptions of global industrial value chain and obsessed with erecting trade barriers in an unending shadow fight to contain and constrain China, which has an obvious implication to distract and distort Africa’s growth trajectory for which China is making outstanding contributions.

    The prospects of the year 2025 for China and Africa to raise the bar to new levels of their cooperation and engagement under the Belt and Road Initiative for which Africa is the region with the largest number of partnership countries is obviously an important frontier to be further explored. The milestone already reached in Belt and Road constructions which have provided enormous infrastructure connectivity projects spanning railways, highways, seaports, airports, and industrial parks in Africa naturally speak to the new phase of investment and trade cooperation for which the infrastructure projects are and could be major enablers.

    Without vigorous economic and social activities, infrastructure projects will translate to dead capital and overtime become a liability. And with the Belt and Road Initiative now taking into account of small but, people-centred and impactful projects, Africa policy makers desirous of dealing deadly blows to poverty in the region can engage policy instruments that leverage the cooperation with China in the new stage of the Belt and Road cooperation.

    China key global initiatives on development, security and dialogue among civilizations are open and are viable domains for international partnership and cooperation and year 2025 provides a vital opportunity for African countries to give policy context to these initiatives and instrumentalise them to address specific challenges. The coming of the year 2025 will not hand out prospects and benefits as Santa Claus or Father Christmas. Rather, every hazard that must be overcome or avoided and the benefits and progress the New Year will be the outcome of a deliberate commitment and steadfast struggle and this is especially for China-Africa cooperation.

    •Onunaiju is director of Centre for China Studies, Abuja.

  • Human or Artificial Intelligence; humanity still at the centre

    Human or Artificial Intelligence; humanity still at the centre

    By Paul Ejime

    According to experts, human intelligence refers to the “intellectual capability of humans, marked by complex cognitive feats and high levels of motivation and self-awareness.” Since human intelligence is partly linked to the structure and genes of the human brain, it is also believed that intelligence could be “enhanced” using “genetic engineering,” a process sometimes called “biological uplift” in science fiction.

    Indeed, genetic enhancement experiments on mice have demonstrated superior ability in learning and memory in various behavioural tasks.

    This reflection is focused on artificial intelligence (AI), as a technological innovation, its advantages, drawbacks and limitations.

    The Encyclopaedia Britannica describes AI, as “the ability of a digital computer or computer-controlled robot to perform tasks commonly associated with intelligent beings. The term is frequently applied to the project of developing systems endowed with the intellectual processes characteristic of humans, such as the ability to reason, discover meaning, generalise, or learn from experience.”

    To Coursera, an institution that partners with more than 300 leading universities and companies to bring flexible, affordable, job-relevant online learning to individuals and organisations worldwide, AI “is the theory and development of computer systems capable of performing tasks that historically required human intelligence, such as recognising speech, making decisions, and identifying patterns.”

    A writer in a recent article identified AI as “an umbrella term that encompasses a wide variety of technologies, including machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing (NLP).

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    The writer noted that although the term is commonly used to describe a range of technologies in use, “many disagree on whether these constitute artificial intelligence. Instead, some argue that much of the technology used in the real world today constitutes highly advanced machine learning that is simply a first step towards true artificial intelligence, or “general artificial intelligence” (GAI).”

    There is, however, no disagreement on when and how AI gained traction.

    In 1956, a small group of scientists gathered for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence, which was the birth of this field of research.

    For context, Dartmouth College is a private Ivy League research university in Hanover, New Hampshire, United States. Established in 1769 by Eleazar Wheelock, it is one of the nine colonial colleges chartered before the American Revolution and has since acquired national prominence as one of the most prestigious undergraduate colleges in America.

    The 18 June to 17 August 1956 workshop in its premises is widely considered the event that launched AI as a research discipline.

    AI is associated with the computer system, and it is instructive to note that since their development in the 1940s, digital computers have been programmed to carry out very complex tasks – such as discovering proofs for mathematical theorems or playing chess – with great proficiency.

    However, despite continuing advances in computer processing speed and memory capacity, no programme has yet matched full human flexibility over wider domains or in carrying out tasks requiring everyday knowledge.

    On the other hand, “some programmes have attained the performance levels of human experts and professionals in executing certain tasks, so AI, in its limited sense is found in applications as diverse as medical diagnosis, computer search engines, voice or handwriting recognition, and chatbots.”

    It is, therefore, an unconscious human bias, to say that all but the simplest human behaviour is ascribed to intelligence, while even the most complicated behaviour of an insect is usually not taken as an indication of intelligence.

    Similarly, AI like most computer-driven technology is pivotal to human development. Like all human inventions, technological advancement boasts multiple benefits, drawbacks and limitations.

    It is all down to the human attitude or character. Instead of putting AI to good use, evil-minded humans are using the technology to harm others or themselves, and the environment, disrupting development, committing crimes and causing mayhem.

    The same applies to the evolution of social media and the negative implications of misinformation, disinformation and fake news.

    In this special season, we should acknowledge AI and social media for what they are – part of technological advancement tools, to be leveraged for human development.

    The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres could not have said it more aptly: “Artificial Intelligence without human oversight would leave the world blind, and perhaps nowhere more perilously and recklessly than in global peace and security.”

    In a post on his social media handle, LinkedIn, he said: “AI’s expansion into security systems raises fundamental concerns about human rights, dignity, and the rule of law.”

    “Critically,” he said, “(the misuse or abuse of) AI is eroding the fundamental principle of human control over the use of force.”

    “From intelligence-based assessments to target selection, algorithms have reportedly already been used in making life-and-death decisions.

    “The integration of AI with nuclear weapons is particularly alarming with potentially disastrous consequences. We must avoid it at all costs,” the Secretary-General said, warning: “No country should design, develop, deploy or use military applications of AI in armed conflict that violate international law, humanitarian law and human rights.”

    He, therefore, urged “members of the Security Council to lead by example and ensure that competition over emerging technologies does not destabilise international peace and security.”

    To establish the limitations and/or proficiency of AI, this writer, using his Android mobile phone decided to engage AI in a virtual conversation recently, in Accra.

    Two days after the Electoral Commission of Ghana had declared former President John Dramani Mahama as president-elect following the December 7 General Elections, I asked AI to tell me the president-elect of Ghana.

    The response was interesting. AI said Nana Akufo-Addo was elected Ghana’s President in 2020. When reminded that John Mahama had been declared president-elect two days ago, AI acknowledged and thanked me for the information!

    There is a tendency to exaggerate the power of AI. The risks are real. But instead of undue concerns or hysteria, humanity should innovate, adapt and prioritise the advantages and benefits of technological advancement such as AI and social media to transform the world, positively.

    In teaching his disciples about God’s Kingdom in Matthew 13:24-48, Jesus Christ used the parable of the “man who planted good seed in his field…, (but) …that night, while everyone was asleep, the man’s enemy came and planted weeds among the wheat.”

    The man’s servants told him about the development and their wish to uproot the weeds. But he counselled them to exercise patience until harvest time because, in their haste to uproot the weeds, the wheat could be destroyed also. At harvest time, the weeds would be gathered and set on fire and the wheat harvested as food for the people.

    AI and social media are not bad by themselves. The problem is their misuse or abuse. They are a human creation, and instead of being hostage to their own creation, it behoves humanity to protect and not destroy itself with its creation.

    With some rigour, it is possible to tell an AI-generated product from the work of a professional or misinformation/disinformation and fake news from the authentic.

    God has given us freedom for our salvation. Let us preserve and make the world a better place, instead of abusing or misusing our innate freedom!

  • 2024: TETFUND’s year of popular positive attestation

    2024: TETFUND’s year of popular positive attestation

    By Tunde Oladunjoye

    As a former member of the Governing Council of Tai Solarin University of Education, Ijagun, Ogun State (2016-2018), I can testify that the major projects we were able to accomplish were the projects funded by the federal government through the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND).

    TETFUND also sponsored many of the university’s staff, academic and non-academic, for continuous training abroad. For a state-owned university, which also witnessed the era of zero subventions from its owners, the state government, one could have imagined what would have been the fate of TASUED without TETFUND.

    It was the same situation when this writer served as a member of the Governing Council of Federal Polytechnic, Ukana, Akwa-Ibom State. All the major capital projects at the Ukanna main campus of the polytechnic were funded by TETFUND.

    This is the reality in all the tertiary institutions in Nigeria today. TETFUND has remained the bedrock of infrastructural development for the colleges of education, polytechnics and universities owned by both the federal and state governments.

    The Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) was originally established as Education Tax Fund (ETF) by the Act No. 7 of 1993 as amended by Act No. 40 of 1998 (now repealed and replaced with Tertiary Education Trust Fund (Establishment, Etc.) Act No. 16 of 2011. It is an intervention agency set up to provide supplementary support to all levels of public tertiary institutions with the main objective of using funding alongside project management for the rehabilitation, restoration and consolidation of tertiary education in Nigeria.

    However, the reality on ground over the years and even now, is that rather than being a supplementary source of funding for the three tiers of tertiary education, TETFUND has turned out to be about the main source of funding for projects, scholarships research and development, publishing and publications.

    The strategic support that the agency has provided for education in Nigeria is so effective and efficient that even the promoters of private universities have started to lobby for accommodation by TETFUND, though unjustifiably. 

    The main source of income available to the fund is the two percent education tax paid from the assessable profit of companies registered in Nigeria. However, the tax was reviewed upwards to 2.5 percent by the Finance Act 2021 and further increased to three percent by the Finance Act 2023 effective September 2023.

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    The funds are disbursed for the general improvement of education in federal and state tertiary education institutions specifically for the provision or maintenance of essential physical infrastructure for teaching and learning, infrastructural material and equipment research and publications, academic staff training and development, and any other need which, in the opinion of the 13-member Board of Trustees, is critical and essential for the improvement and maintenance of standards in the higher educational institutions.

    In 2024, the agency has impacted so significantly that testimonies abound. TETFUND has become the geese that lay the golden, so much that Nigerian students and their lecturers do not want any harm to come near it, either in the guise of taxation, restructuring, harmonization and what have you.

    At different fora and interviews in the outgoing year, the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) has warned the federal government against tampering with the existence of TETFUND, insisting that such a move will badly injure the university system.

    In an interview with The Guardian, the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) cautioned the federal government against phasing out TETFund in favour of the newly introduced Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), warning that such a move could severely damage Nigeria’s public university system.

    “TETFund has been instrumental in transforming tertiary education across Nigeria for over 30 years. Scrapping it would devastate public universities and deny access to education for children from low-income families,” said ASUU President, Prof. Emmanuel Osodeke, in the interview.

    He highlighted the significant role TETFund plays in providing infrastructure and academic development in public institutions, noting that 90% of physical structures in universities, polytechnics, and colleges of education are products of TETFund.”

    ASUU urged the government to uphold the legacy of TETFund, which has inspired similar initiatives like Ghana’s Education Trust Fund (GETFund).

    “Countries in Africa are learning from TETFund. Scrapping it now would be a step backward for Nigeria,” Osodeke stressed, appealing to the government to prioritize education funding in line with global standards.

    Also, the umbrella body for university students in Nigeria, the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has joined ASUU to mobilize against any attempt to scrap or reduce revenue accruable to TETFUND. Speaking at its 86th National Senate Sitting and Pre-Convention event held at the Lagos State University (LASU), Ojo, Senate President of NANS, Babatunde Afeez Akinteye urged the federal government to be transparent about its future plans for TETFUND in the Tax Reform Bills.

    “Every Nigerian recognizes the importance of TETFUND in our educational institutions. Its projects are evident across campuses. Without TETFUND, we cannot imagine what would have become of our campuses. The agency’s contributions go beyond infrastructural development to include capacity building, research, and innovative activities. For these reasons, TETFUND must not be tampered with but instead properly funded and managed by competent individuals of integrity to ensure even greater performance,” he said.

    Not long after, Bayo Onanuga, the presidential spokesman, dispelled the rumour, saying there was no such plan to scrap TETFUND and a few other agencies in the proposed tax bill.

    “No part of the tax reform bills currently before the National Assembly (NASS) recommends the scrapping of Tertiary Education Fund (TETFund), National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) and National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA)”, the Presidency through Onanuga said in a statement.

    “Contrary to the lies being peddled, the bills do not suggest that NASENI, TETFUND, and NITDA will cease to exist in 2029 after the passage of the bills. Government agencies, such as NASENI, TETFUND, and NITDA, are funded through budgetary provisions with company income tax and other taxes paid by the same businesses that are being overburdened with the special taxes.”

    As the clarification from the federal government seemed to have put the mind of the concerned public at rest, desperate people embarked on campaign of calumny against TETFUND and its Executive Secretary, Architect Sonny Echono. The published attacks and lies against TETFUND and its helmsman, mostly on back street social media were born out of envy and mindless hustling of certain people who wanted to wrestle the steering of TETFUND for their ulterior, self-serving and unpatriotic motives.

    It is, however, highly commendable that TETFUND and its management continue to remain focused, undistracted in the delivery of their mandate, with the active support of its board chaired by the former governor of Kastina State, Rt. Hon. Aminu Masari.

    As part of efforts towards revamping the economy through promotion and investments in ground breaking research and innovations, TETFUND has since held its maiden edition of the National Research Fair/Exhibition in Abuja with innovators, researchers and inventors on the ground to showcase various innovative projects. The five-day event, held from November 17 – 21, not doubt, lived up to its billings.

    Speaking at the opening ceremony of the event held at the Eagle Square, Minister of Education, Maruf Alausa, stated that only impactful research and innovation could equip Nigeria with needed elements to transform its fortune, adding that the Federal Government is committed to leveraging research and for economic growth. The TETFUND fair, he announced, would be held annually to unleash the innate capacities of millions of young Nigerians by giving them opportunities to contribute to economic development through innovation.

    To TETFund’s executive secretary, the exhibition was aimed at “showcasing research outcomes from the fund’s beneficiary institutions, as well as other innovations both from the formal and informal sectors with the aim of connecting them to industry for prototype upscale and commercialization.”

    On his part, chairman, Board of Trustees of TETFund, Rt. Hon. Masari, reiterated the commitment of the TETFund board to research development in tertiary institutions, adding that the paucity of funds required for promoting cutting-edge research that are crucial to national development will be significantly addressed under his leadership.

    It is hoped that the federal government will strengthen TETFUND and not whittle down its powers, influence or resources under any guise even as the Sonny Echono-led management continues its giant, positive strides.

    •Oladunjoye, a journalist, sent this via oladunjoyelo@gmail.com

  • Metal recyclers as economic saboteurs

    Metal recyclers as economic saboteurs

    •  By Jasper Uche

    ‘Ndi Akpakara’ is an emerging lexicon in Igbo language used to describe those who mill around dumpsites in search of scrap metals, condemned aluminium products and other recyclable items, which they sell to the agents of industrial users. These ‘condemned iron scavengers’ are otherwise known as ‘Baban bola’ in Hausa language. Apart from rummaging in refuse bins, they also move from one neighbourhood to another filling up their waste-carts and scooters with unused metals purchased from willing sellers. By so doing, some of them got implicated in ransacking of items produced with copper at construction sites, electrical lines, telecom cables, cell towers, railroad switchyards, remote power stations, and uninhabited buildings. Hence, metals theft has become a matter of concern. All efforts to curb the spread seemed like a drop of salt in an ocean. In fact, Richard Mills asserts that the problem of metals theft is here to stay.

    Understanding the drivers of this relatively new booming business will help to situate the criminalities around it.  Copper is in high demand in today’s transition to clean energy. It is a versatile resource in electronics, fibre optics, plumbing and utilities. “BloombergNEF has estimated that getting to net zero could require almost $10 trillion worth of metals between now and 2050.” Thus, “due to its excellent conductivity properties, the red-coloured metal plays a vital role in the construction of renewable energy sources ranging from wind, solar, hydro, and thermal, to electric vehicle.” In fact, “copper is used throughout electric vehicles, charging stations, and supporting infrastructure because of the metal’s durability, high conductivity, and efficiency.” 

    Admittedly, the International Copper Association has projected a tenfold demand for copper from 2027. “This growth stems from the expectation that there will be 27 million EVs on the road by 2027, up from three million in 2017, requiring amount of copper for their batteries, wiring, and infrastructure.” The rise in demand for copper has brought about increase in prices and the associated crime. Thus, Ben Stickle, a professor of criminal justice at Middle Tennessee State University, Nashville, notes that “When you have high value for something like this that could be re-sold, then you’re going to end up with more crime.”

     It is clear from the foregoing that the surge in demand for copper lured some iron scavengers into outright burgling of houses and vandalization of public infrastructure where metals could be found, disfigured, and converted to scrap metals. In the United Kingdom, metal theft is the fastest growing crime as metal recycling industry is worth 5.6 billion pounds, just as it employed 8,000 persons as of 2012.  It has also been noted that ‘copper robbing epidemic’ witnessed in Chile is fuelled by China demand. In Nigeria, 95% of materials for steel production in the country are sourced from scrap metals. Even Europe’s biggest producer of copper, Aurubis, in 2004, lost metals worth millions of dollars from its inventories based on collusion between suppliers and employees. 

    As far back as 2004, the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the US reported that copper thieves were direct threats to her critical infrastructure. A publication in October 2014 indicates that metals theft in US including the damages and lost revenue stood at $1 billion annually. And, out of 41,138 insurance claims on metals theft in the US in 2011, 2012 and 2013, 97% involved copper. In Canada, metal-related theft went up since 2021. In Beijing, China alone, about 240,000 manhole covers were stolen in 2004 while more than 70 injuries or deaths, including toddlers were recorded due to broken or stolen manhole covers between 2017 and 2019.

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     In Nigeria, the business of gathering scrap metals has degenerated to ubiquitous theft and vandalization of railway tracks, manhole covers, handrails on bridges, iron drain covers, iron bars and electricity infrastructure. The Federal Capital Territory Administration noted that about 600 manhole covers in Abuja are without covers due to the illegal activities of scavengers who vandalized and carted them away at night.  Several arrests and arraignment of suspects had been made by the police, yet the criminality refused to die down. The rail fittings on the second Niger Bridge were uprooted and vandalized by the criminal vandals after it was commissioned. This heightened the risk of accidents along that stretch. Across the states, the menace of metals theft is increasing.

     The untraceable nature of the culprits and lax protection of critical infrastructure in remote places account for the seeming intractability of the crime. Therefore, community policing model fits the bill. Last month, a dare-devil scavenger who sneaked into a gated electricity transformer near ‘Umuejegwo Pavilion’ and cut the cables into bag-size pieces before an alarm was raised by a passer-by, could not escape because the vigilant Ugwuawuru youths in Umuaku, Isuochi, Abia State, cordoned him off in a small bush where he took cover, and apprehended him. Collaborations at the grassroots for information sharing is very essential in stamping out this crime. There should be a joint special task force of the Police and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) that would deploy technology in monitoring, tracking, and reporting of scrap metals transactions.

    As done by all the 50 States in US, Nigeria should pass a legislation for mandatory record keeping of sold scrap metals. Cash payments of scrap metals should be prohibited by law. There should be a national database of registered dealers, as well as the trucks that convey the scraps.  In the long run, a technological tracking will be more sustainable. Despite the cost, Hangzhou city officials are experimenting the idea of ‘smart manhole covers’ by planting GPS chips inside manhole covers so that “When a cover is moved and tilt angle is greater than 15 degrees, the tag will send an alarm signal…” Also, the idea of producing manhole covers with ductile iron with low scrap value is a disincentive to manhole cover theft. All hands must be on deck to stop the scrap metals scavengers from destroying critical public infrastructure.

    •Dr. Uche writes from Abuja.

  • Questioning the numbers: A look at NBS data on kidnapping and ransom payment

    Questioning the numbers: A look at NBS data on kidnapping and ransom payment

    By Oluwole Ojewale & Tosin Osasona

    Nigeria has a data problem, a deeply rooted governance problem manifested in poor data quality, fragile data generation infrastructure and blatant politicization of data. To argue against this fact is to provide an alternative explanation for Nigeria’s disappointing inability to conduct a credible census since 1962, conflicting unemployment figures, selective release of economic data,  inaccurate and incomplete health data,  discrepancies in school enrolment rates and unreliable criminal justice statistics among others. Given this context, it is imperative to interrogate recent statistics by the NBS on kidnapping and ransom payment in Nigeria.

    There is a concurrence among most scholars in Nigeria that bandits are the various organized criminal groups operating mainly in the Nigerian northwest region. Driven primarily by economic imperatives, these criminal groups have in the last decade indiscriminately attacked rural communities, commuters and security agencies in the region. Undoubtedly, these criminal groups have evolved a sophisticated and strategic approach to kidnapping for ransom, demonstrating tactical proficiency in carrying out abductions, often utilizing intelligence networks, exploiting security gaps, and operating in remote areas with challenging terrain.

    According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics’ Crime Experience and Security Perception Report, 2024, Nigeria recorded a total of 2.23 million kidnapping incidents during the year under review, with 63.5% of these incidents occurring in the northwest geopolitical zone—highlighting the significant role of bandits in Nigeria’s kidnapping economy. The report indicates that 8.6% of households in the northwest reported experiencing kidnapping, compared to a national prevalence rate of 3.2%. During the reference period, N2.2 trillion was paid as ransom, with 54.5% of the payments made in the northwest region. Additionally, the average national ransom per incident was N2.67 million. The report unequivocally places the northwest as the loci of Nigeria’s kidnapping crisis.

    Ideally, an evidence-based report should provide impartial and definitive proof of the facts it presents. However, this presumption depends on the rigor of its methodology and the credibility of its publishers. Additionally, regardless of how the evidence is framed, it should be consistent with logic, widely accepted knowledge, and established facts. The report does make bold and unsettling assertions that require objective evaluation.

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    The methodological rigor of the report is insufficient relative to the bold claims presented.  Beyond its scantiness, the methodology has key deficiencies, the sampling representation is grossly inadequate for regional conclusions that the study made. To start with, the pilot survey was conducted only in Kuje and Bwari area councils in the FCT, using 20 households, raising concerns about the appropriateness of the pilot to reflect regional variations, especially in the northwest, which is reported as the epicentre of kidnapping incidents. Also, the report failed to provide sufficient information on the sampling frame and cluster design. While the sampling frame uses the Housing and Population Census 18,000 Enumeration Areas, it selected 1,020 Enumeration Areas and 12,281 households nationally. Can it be said that this sample size meets the test of sufficiency to validate the N2.2 trillion ransom payment?

    The methodology section is silent on sampling design specificity such as specific variables used to stratify the Enumeration Areas, household selection methods although the report referenced “systematically selected”, but there is need for more clarity. The section is also silent on non-response rate, while it mentions non-response adjustment for weighting but doesn’t state the actual non-response rate achieved. This is a critical indicator of survey quality.

    There is also the problem of lack of detail on crime definitions and ransom data verification. The methodology is quiet on how “kidnapping” was defined or how ransom payments were verified. Given the sensitive nature of ransom payments, relying solely on household self-reporting may lead to exaggerations or omissions. Ultimately, the study highlights the risks of potential bias with studies reliant on self-reported data. The reason is simple: respondents may either overstate or understate their experiences based on fear, stigma, or misremembering events, impacting the accuracy of the prevalence and ransom figures. The study does not discuss strategies utilized for cross-referencing self-reported data with other sources and address how potential biases were minimized during interviews.

    Beyond methodological inadequacies the study inexplicably contradicts logic and established facts in some of its most critical findings. It is against the grain of media reportage and share of conversation that Nigeria had more than 2.2m kidnapping incidents in one year. The study states that residents of the northwest paid bandits around N1.2 trillion in ransom in the period under review. For context, Zamfara and Katsina states are epicentres of kidnapping in the northwest. Zamfara state budgeted N188.87 billion for 2023, while Katsina did N288bn for the same year. Their combined budget is around a third of the amount the report asserts was paid by the entire region. In interrogating the data; one is bound to ask again; where did the victims of kidnapping in Nigeria’s northwest get N1.2 trillion to pay for ransom within 12 months?

    Given the general knowledge that government is usually the biggest spender in any economy; even if the state governments are the ones paying the ransom; with their meagre budgets; how did the states meet other fiscal obligations? The northwest region is the poorest geopolitical zone in Nigeria, with more than 70% of residents living below poverty line and in rural communities. This is not an attempt to downplay the plight of the communities experiencing vagaries of violence by bandits.

    For the purpose of comparison, we checked the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) repository. ACLED is an independent, impartial, international non-profit organization collecting data on violence in all countries and territories in the world. We extrapolated the abduction data for the period (May 2023 – April 2024) and found 634 incidents across Nigeria.

    The data from ACLED contradicts findings by the NBS estimated at 2,235,954 kidnapping incidents nationally using perception survey. Giving the preponderance of media report on kidnapping in Nigeria, there is no adult interviewed in Nigeria who will not report that the crime is on the rise. But that does not equate lived experience.

    Just to bring clarity to this figure; 2,235,954 kidnapping incidents would translate to over 4.4 million people if we assume an average of two persons were kidnapped per incident. This perspective becomes pivotal as abductors are often engaged in mass abduction for criminal gains. The population of Gabon in 2023 was estimated to be around 2.4 million people. Did the NBS data managers think about the logistic requirement to kidnap a population twice that of Gabon within 12 months? How would the abductors manage the transport logistics for such a criminal enterprise within the time frame? We are raising the pertinent questions because empirical data must not go against the logic of common sense.

    Insecurity is real in Nigeria and we advocate for a whole of society approach to address the issues. However, the objective of this piece is to emphasize the importance of aligning statistical reports with on-the-ground realities to foster trust and actionable insights. Inflated statistics can misinform policy decisions and public opinion. Such data has potential consequences for Nigeria’s security sector, including resource allocation and strategy development. Such figures also have significant implications for Nigeria’s international reputation and investor confidence as they prospect for business across various sectors in the country.

    •Dr Ojewale and Osasona (security and law scholars) wrote from Dakar and Ibadan respectively.

  • Resolving out-of-school children crisis

    Resolving out-of-school children crisis

    By Abdu Abdullahi

    Nigeria’s educational system is at its critical point both in evolution and sustainability. Bedevilled by the economic, social and cultural realities of openness, it needs to undergo a profound transformation to offer every Nigerian child the chance of quality life for self- fulfilment.

    The phenomenon of out-of-school children is an emerging and disturbing phenomenon, gradually consuming the educational domain and future of the child. While this educational endemic refers to the children in the official primary school age range who are not enrolled in either primary or secondary school, many factors such as inadequate-evidence-based policies, teacher and classroom shortages, poor infrastructures, cultural norms, health and safety concerns, conflicts and economic barriers among others, are attributed to its blatant manifestation and escalation. Thus, proactive and decisive actions from all stakeholders to ameliorate the unhealthy trend are greatly paramount and desirable.

    For the United Nations, out-of-school children are clearly defined as those kids who are yet to be enrolled in any formal education excluding pre-primary education. The age range for out-of-school children is 6-11 years. The number of out-of-school children is calculated by subtracting the aggregate of primary school age children enrolled in primary or secondary school from total population of the official primary school-age children. This functional formula is a robust idea for policy making and implementation in respect of children enrolment.

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    Alarmingly, Nigeria’s out-of-school children are hitting 18.3 million according to the UNICEF statistics. This frightening figure positions the country with the highest number globally. Instead of transition to the next level of education, these unfortunate children are transiting to the world of illiteracy characterised by absolute darkness. Of course, illiteracy is a chronic disease that requires prudent, quick and prompt response. Aggravated by the prolonged insurgency and banditry in the core north, children whose parents are devastated by the horrors of insecurity are economically down, socially dislocated that they are unable to send their children to school where security is not guaranteed and enhanced. The ugly incidences of abducted students across the northern states easily come to our mind.

    UNICEF’s statistics concerning out-of-school children in Nigeria further reveal that only 41% of primary school students remain in school by the end of their junior secondary school. In May 2024, only 84% of Nigerian children moved to junior secondary school after completing their primary school. Appallingly, the top three states grappling with the highest percentages of out-of-school children in the country are Kebbi, which has a staggering figure of 67.6%, Sokoto having 66.4% and Yobe with 62.9% respectively.

    While about two trillion naira was said to have been spent on refreshments, sitting allowances, travelling and utilities in the first nine months of 2024 by most governors, the transition to ubiquitous illiteracy associated with Nigeria’s children is rising and provoking as shown by the quoted statistics. For how long are we going to remain insensitive to the plight of our children? What do we see on the face of these innocent kids? The answer is simple: we are all guilty for not organising and uniting ourselves to secure the future of the Nigerian child.

    Plundered are Nigeria’s abundant resources, entrenching misplaced priorities detrimental to the personal development of the child, whose fundamental right to quality education has been usurped. We have sad narratives of many places where school exist without teachers. Allowing the prevalence of out-of-school children is a dangerous signal of parting ways with the creation, preservation and promotion of human capital. Indeed, the best capital the child needs to prepare him or her for a successful living is education.  

    The prevalent crisis of out-of- school children is multi-dimensional, glaringly manifested in three levels vis-a-vis functional illiteracy, cultural illiteracy and moral illiteracy. Functional illiteracy means that a person cannot use reading, writing and calculation skills for his or her own and the community’s development. Cultural illiteracy refers to the inability to understand and participate fluently in a given culture. Moral illiteracy has to do with the disability to distinguish between what is wrong and what is right.

    Getting mass of children into school is high priority for countries and crucial for achieving universal primary education. Any child that has access to education has broken the cycle of poverty in his or her family. Whereas the rate of out-of-school children increases, the human capital decreases in Nigeria. From the sociological perspective, out-of-school children menace leads to poverty, social stigma and ultimately criminal activities. From the economic angle, it cripples the economy as they are exposed to fewer job opportunities and lower salaries.

    As part of frantic efforts to address the educational needs of out-of-school children (OOSC), the Accelerated Education Program (AEP) is a widely used education innovation and intervention scheme. It is carried out globally as functionally potential, bringing about a significant reduction in the number of OOSC in Nigeria. The goal of AEP is providing learners with equivalent, certified competences for basic education, deploying effective teaching and learning approaches that match their level of cognitive maturity.

    A painstaking method of ending out-of-school children compels all stakeholders to vouch for the adoption, retention, transition and completion model to save the children and ensure the safety of their human capital.

    Of course, their capital is Nigeria’s capital. Who wants Nigeria’s capital to be squandered?

    •Abdullahi writes via aaringim68@gmail.com

  • Looking up to Lookman

    Looking up to Lookman

    Ray Ekpu

    Our man Ademola Olajade Alade Ayoola Lookman simply known as Ademola Lookman has won the African Footballer of the Year Award for Nigeria. He becomes the 7th Nigerian to be so decorated. Last year it was won by another Nigerian, a prolific goal scorer, Victor Osimhen who is a restless runner, full of energy and vitality.

    Lookman is a lucky find who was born to Nigerian parents in Wandsworth, England on October 20, 1997. He played for England’s under 19, under 20 and under 21. Nigeria made three attempts to make him switch allegiance to Nigeria but the young man was unbending. Our coach, Gernot Rohr, approached him in 2017 and he turned down the offer and twice in 2018 he refused to give his nod to Nigeria’s desire to have him lace his boots for the country of his parent’s birth. But on March 25, 2022 the unexpected happened. He put on Nigeria’s jersey in his debut match for Nigeria. It was a Ghana versus Nigeria match as part of the third round of the African section of the qualification for the 2022 FIFA World Cup which Nigeria missed.

    Lookman has made a roaring success in his footballing career, playing for such big clubs as Everton, R.B Leipzig, Fulham, Leicester City and of course Atalanta, the Italian Serie A club that he joined on August 4, 2022 for a four-year contract. Interestingly, he scored on his debut for the club, scored braces in three consecutive matches. On May 22, he scored his first career hat trick in the Europa League Final at the Dublin Arena as Atalanta defeated Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 to win the trophy for the first time in the club’s history. Both the club and Lookman made history.

    Since joining the club in 2022 Lookman has made 75 appearances and scored 32 goals. He was named Atalanta Player of the Year 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. This year he was named in the CAF team of the year 2024. As a member of the Nigeria Africa Cup of Nations runners-up team, he was honoured along with the other players by the Nigerian government with the national honour of Member of the Order of the Niger.

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    In the short period that he has featured for the Super Eagles, Lookman has made 27 appearances and scored eight goals. It is obvious that Lookman has an exciting club and international career ahead of him once he has no serious injuries.

    However, despite the excellent individual performance of people like Lookman, Nigeria’s football is a source of worry to football aficionados. By the latest ranking, Nigeria is at number 44 in the world and 5th in Africa. There was a time that Nigeria was at a single digit. That is evidence that we have declined disastrously today. That is because we have not invested sufficiently in advancing the development of our football. We owe salaries to our coaches. We owe allowances to players for years and months and only have to appeal to their sense of patriotism when they threaten not to report to camp for preparations for upcoming matches. For this reason of indebtedness, our football managers lack the guts to discipline players who report late to camp. When Sunday Oliseh left, he was being owed salaries. When Rohr left he was being owed salaries.

    When will this tardiness in football management come to an end so that we can administer this money-spinning business the way other countries do?

    Nigerians would like to see the new management of Nigeria football do things differently and efficiently. They would like to see them bring big business into football. Today, we have only one football stadium Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, Uyo that is recognized by FIFA and CAF for football matches. Other stadia including the Moshood Abiola Stadium in Abuja and National Stadium in Surulere, Lagos are whited sepulchres. And these are stadia that were expensively built and maintained over the years and Nigerians derived joy from trooping to those iconic stadia for matches. Today, they have been virtually abandoned. If the Godswill Akpabio Stadium is allowed to degenerate, we will be compelled to play our home matches in other country’s stadia. That will be a big shame for this big country.

    I keep wondering why some Nigerians keep pushing for the use of Nigerian coaches for either the Super Eagles or the Super Falcons. That is not my definition of patriotism. Nigerian footballers in the Super Eagles and Super Falcons play in foreign clubs that pay them heavily in dollars. Their salaries are higher, much higher, than what the Nigerian Football Association pays its local coaches. That is why some of the local coaches beg the players for a gift of dollars. That too complicates player selection and brings corruption into the management of the Super Eagles and Super Falcons. That is one reason that I cannot vote for the use of local coaches for the two teams.

    The second reason for my preference for foreign coaches for the two teams is that our local coaches do not go for refresher courses and therefore have no idea about modern tactics and strategies in the game today. They are probably suitable for the age grade teams where the young players depend largely on their raw skills and energy for success on the pitch. They are also pliable and obedient because they are hungry for success at the early stages of their career. They have not yet earned dollars that can make their heads swollen.

     My other reason for preferring foreign coaches for the two senior teams is that foreign coaches receive an appropriate level of respect from our football managers. Our football managers do not give sufficient respect to local coaches. Stephen Keshi, who won the 2013 African Cup of Nations for Nigeria, was very badly treated during the tournament by the NFA. They actually did not support the team. They never thought that the team would win the tournament. And when the team won, they were unpleasantly surprised. And because of the shabby manner in which he was treated, Keshi announced his resignation as the team’s coach right there in South Africa, a very anomalous situation for a winner. That was the height of his frustration. Several other local coaches have been similarly frustrated in the past by NFA officials who seek to decide for the coaches which players they should use for matches. Sometimes, we learn that federal character comes into play. And that complicates the job of the coach. And Nigerian football is the worse for it.

    The new NFF chairman must think outside the box, if he wants to succeed. The routinisation of football management in Nigeria has been a major problem. The failure to raise big money for the game is another. If there is no big investment in the game there can be no big achievement. Football is big business today. And the NFF must follow the money and bring it into the game. And when the money is brought, it must be spent in a transparent fashion so as to generate trust in other would-be investors. The game must not be seen as a chop and quench affair but as one that can bring fame and fortune to a big nation like Nigeria. If we are looking up to Lookman and co to bring honour to Nigeria, we must also spread the red carpet for them to walk on. That is reciprocity. Reciprocity can lead to success.