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  • NES30 at times like this

    NES30 at times like this

    • By Issa Aremu

    “…. The problem in Africa is not so much that development failed as that it never really began.”  –  Claude Ake (2001)

    The 30th Nigerian Economic Summit (NES30) holds from Monday 14 to Thursday, October 16 in Abuja. As a participant/ observer of the summits in the last three decades, I bear witness that Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), a private sector platform conceived in 1993, incorporated in 1996, has kept faith with its vision to be “Africa’s leading private sector think-tank committed to the development of a modern globally competitive and inclusive Nigerian economy”.

    Credit goes to the foresight, thoughtfulness of the founding men and women, the resilience of the subsequent board members of NESG. The story of NESG confirms that contrary to the received advice of America’s 44th president, Barack Obama, Africa truly needs “strong” men and women to build sustainable institutions in overcoming legacy of under-development. NES30 is a tribute to late Chief Ernest Shonekan, Pascal Dozie and late Ahmed Joda for their respective efforts in building NESG which has outperformed scores of similar government and private economic institutions, devoted to analysing economic data and sharing perspectives on Nigerian economy, at least in consistent orthodoxy of market policy ideas, notwithstanding their controversial impact.

    At 30, the critical question begging for answer is: to what extent has NESG institution built on the “foundational principles” of “free market economy” and “private sector investment” promoted growth and development? The point cannot be overstated: Institutions with men and women are just the means. The end is “development” which scandalously and regrettably is still in huge deficit in Nigeria!

    Happily there have been some policy introspections and self-critical assessment within NESG itself. No thanks to the abysmal performance of the economy driven by the “philosophy” which NES II as far back as 1995, repeatedly canvassed to be “market oriented”.

    Asue Ighodalo, chairman 27th Nigerian Economic Summit themed: “Securing our future: The fierce urgency of Now”, identified key current features of Nigerian economy, as “increasing unemployment, pervasive insecurity and dwindling investments in critical sectors”. Last year, deputy chairman of the NESG, Amina Maina at the 29th Summit bemoaned a “once promising high growth nation … now struggling with under-development”! Which means that Nigeria’s growth and development numbers have not significantly improved in quantity and quality since NES1 in 1993; on the contrary, there is a slide to a new “underdevelopment”. Token progress defies sustainability.

    Read Also: Killings: Nigeria fast returning to barbarism, says ACF

    National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 32.15% in August, 1.25% points lower compared to the 33.40% recorded in July. This is a far cry from the target of 21% Inflation Rate in the 2024 budget proposal. Notwithstanding the new NBS’s inclusive methodology on unemployment rate calculus, the unemployment rate increased significantly in Q3 2023 at 5.0%, an increase of 0.8% from Q2 2023. Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reportedly grew by 2.98% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2024, higher than the 2.31% recorded in the first quarter of 2023, but lower than 11.52per cent between 2000 and 2004. Persistent Naira devaluation and spiral fuel price hikes have worsened wage income poverty despite commendable six nominal increases in National minimum wage since 1981 due to the struggles of organized labour.

    Whence then the relevance of NESG and its addictive market (and only market!) policy recommendations at times of stagflation, with persistent slow growth, high unemployment, deepening inequality, mass poverty and rising prices? What difference will #NES30 make from the norm of what passes for three lost decades of development?

    At the weekend in Nasarawa, Vice President Kashim Shettima, representing President Bola Tinubu spoke the mind of many Nigerians. “Enough is Enough” of distressing statistics, “poor educational outcomes, high pupil-to-teacher ratios, and the large number of youth not in employment, education, or training…high fertility rates, alarming maternal and under-five mortality rates, and low life expectancy among vulnerable populations” he declared. Senator Shettima spoke at the launch of Nasarawa State’s Human Capital Development (HCD) Strategy Document. It is heart-warming to read, for once, in recent times about “human capital development”. NESG at 30 must compliment the government to return “Development” to Nigeria’s economic discourse at the centre of which must be humans not as mere “numbers”.

    The fundamental objective of the state principle as espoused in 1999 constitution is the welfare and security of the citizens. I share the optimism of the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, that recovery is underway within the context of the Renewed Hope agenda given the improved numbers on non-oil revenue, reduced national debt burden, ways and means and budget deficit among others. The numbers must however translate to decent secured jobs and quality of working and living conditions. That requires collaboration with a reformed private sector platform like NESG that accepts that elected governments have “business in business” in delivering on promises to the electorate.

    Happily this year’s NESG theme focuses on “Collaborative Action for Growth, Competitiveness, and Stability”. Undoubtedly NESG has “achieved significant progress in the areas of research outputs, execution of programmes, seminars, conferences”. But it must reinvent itself; replace market orthodoxy of TINA (There Is No Alternative) with heterodoxy of views that there are many pathways to development. One-way path-of-no-return neoliberalism has underdeveloped Nigeria. It’s time to reform the existing reform, terminate the unhelpful notion of market fundamentalism that pitches the state against the market in mutually destructive competition. Promote benign view of the state for it to make the market work. Stop idolizing the market that repeatedly fails which in turn puts the burden on the state through stimulus rescue. John McMillan rightly observes that “the problem in the developing countries is not that the markets are absent but that they are working badly’.

    Take petroleum downstream as example. For decades, market failed to deliver products not until productive collaboration with the state to build first legacy public refineries and now private refineries, innovation of local for-crude-in-Naira, local crude-for-local refineries deals –a promised departure from the rot of the wholesale import in the names of market forces.

    First reinvent the market by getting domestic supply chain in place through refinery fixing (whether private or public). There was once a Nigeria of four National Development Plans (NDPs) with double digit growth rates sadly later traded for feverish debt-payment SAPs promoted by IMF/ World Bank for odious debt repayment by unaccountable military regimes.

    NESG has certainly come of age but the age of its market policy ideological dogma must give way to pragmatic mix bag of state and market policies that China has (with consistent development plans) applied to secure second seat in the league of global economies, first position to take a multitude out of poverty.

    Nigeria should not “waste” this current crisis. Start with the “soft” notion of development. I agree with former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon that development is “the pathway to the future we want for all”. Why should things get ‘tough’ for the already toughened populace before they will get better? Amartya Sen, 1998 Nobel Prize Winner for Economics has long warned us against a development process as a war (and in his own words), as a “fierce process”, the regular trademarks of which are “blood, sweat and tears”- “… a world in which wisdom demands toughness’ instead of reasoning together for collective good?

    • Aremu mni is Director General, Michael Imoudu National Institute for Labour Studies Ilorin.
  • Before Lagos bans sachet water and other single-use plastics

    Before Lagos bans sachet water and other single-use plastics

    • By Inyene Nkanta

    Recently, the Lagos State government announced intentions to ban sachet water, commonly known as pure water and other single-use plastics beginning January 2025. This decision is part of a broader environmental effort to address the significant plastic waste problem, which clogs drainage systems, contributes to flooding, and harms marine ecosystems. According to what I read, the government is yet to finalize specific alternatives to replace sachet water and other plastics. Although, they have started consulting with stakeholders including manufacturers and waste management groups to develop sustainable packaging alternatives.

    As a circular economy expert, I am aware and conscious of the environmental importance of reducing waste in Nigeria, particularly in Lagos State. But I also understand the economic and societal consequences of blatant prohibitions like this one. The government ban on sachet water seems a little extreme to me, particularly when there are no immediate alternative solutions and the timing is rather too short to implement this. Here are some of the reasons why I think, it is a little too extreme;

    Accessibility and Affordability: Sachet water is often a vital source of affordable drinking water in many communities in Nigeria. Same, with majority of households in Lagos State; a ban could disproportionately impact low-income groups who rely on sachet water for daily hydration.

    Economic Impact: The sachet water industry supports a wide range of jobs, from small scale producers to informal vendors. A sudden ban could cause job losses and negatively impact livelihoods without providing alternative solutions or transitional support.

    Insufficient Infrastructure: In many areas in Lagos State, clean, piped water systems are inadequate, unreliable and even not available. Sachet water serves as a stopgap solution, and without addressing this underlying issue, the ban may cause unintended hardships on the population.

    Waste Management Gaps: Rather than banning sachet water, the government could focus on improving waste collection and recycling systems, which would be a circular economy friendly approach. Promoting the collection, reuse, or recycling of sachet waste would help reduce pollution while keeping this accessible water supply available for majority of Lagosians.

    I am advocating that the Lagos State government focus on a more balanced approach towards this ban. Here are some of my suggestions for a more balanced approach;

    Gradually reducing the use of sachet water while introducing sustainable alternatives. For example, rather than having an abrupt ban, a gradual phase out of sachet water will give time for developing alternatives, such as affordable, reusable containers or bottled water made from biodegradable materials, and improving infrastructure, such as reliable piped water supply or communal water dispensers in areas that rely heavily on sachet water.

    Promoting Innovation and Circular Economy Solutions: Governments can give some incentives towards innovation by encouraging companies to invest in bio-degradable packaging, eco-friendly alternatives or alternative water delivery systems.

    By investing in research and development, businesses can contribute to reducing waste without losing their customer base.

    Additionally, government can introduce Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) policies where producers take responsibility for the collection and recycling of sachets. This can create a closed loop system where materials are continuously reused.

    Education and Waste Management: Focus on education around waste disposal, recycling programs and product take back schemes.

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    Government can build a Waste Management Capacity which will likely increase investments in waste management systems. Furthermore, government can introduce a community based recycling initiatives, where local groups collect and recycle sachets. Last but not the least; government can create public awareness campaigns to educate people about proper disposal and recycling methods. This can create a behavioural shift towards responsible waste management.

    Let’s look at some of the economic and social considerations. The emphasis of the potential economic fallout of an immediate ban cannot be overlooked as this ban will cause job loss and disruption in the informal economy. Therefore, it is imperative that the Lagos State government invest in retraining and reskilling programs for those affected, helping them transition into new roles in the water distribution system and the recycling industry. Additionally, there is need to support the small businesses to adapt to the new regulations by providing financial assistance or subsidies for eco-friendly packaging.

    In conclusion, I believe that these approaches can foster a cleaner environment while being mindful of economic and social realities.

    The Lagos State government is able to protect both the environment and the economic well-being of those dependent on the sachet water industry. This creates a more holistic, sustainable solution that aligns with circular economy principles.

    • Dr Nkanta is lecturer in Circular Economy, Sustainability and Entrepreneurship, University of the West of Scotland.
  • Training to enhance awareness and skills for cybersecurity

    Training to enhance awareness and skills for cybersecurity

    By Osita Iweze

    While cybersecurity certainly requires sophisticated technology interventions, staff training is equally important in protecting client information, writes Osita Iweze | Head | Cyber Security Officer | Huawei Nigeria |

    Conscious of this, Huawei conducts regular employee awareness and skills enhancement programmes.

    We have done training across a range of cybersecurity and privacy-protection topics and held exams for all Huawei employees, with a 99% success rate.

    We also encourage employees to improve their cybersecurity and privacy expertise through external training and professional certification. To date, more than 500 employees have obtained external professional certifications such as IAPP (privacy) and CISSP (cyber security).

    Huawei has the most IAPP-certified employees in the world. Our Cyber Security & Privacy Protection Knowledge Centre, a one-stop learning and training platform, is already helping employees improve their skills and enhance their knowledge.

    More than 620 000 hours of coursework has been completed by our employees, with a total of more than 290 000 individual enrollments in our 111 courses. This means the average Huawei employee has spent more than two hours taking cybersecurity and privacy training.

    Huawei also remains committed to complying with privacy protection laws and regulations around the world. We have adopted industry-recognised best practices, and have embedded Privacy by Design into product and service-development processes.

    These initiatives contribute to a holistic framework for personal privacy protection policy. We have increased our investment in the management of data-subject rights assurance, developed explicit management requirements and processes, and deployed them in a unified IT system, ensuring that we can promptly process data subjects’ requests.

    To date, we have handled more than 10 000 data-subjects requests. In addition, we completed 26 internal audits to ensure that our personal privacy protection policy has been implemented in a consistent and effective manner. We also passed five external audits as well as one professional inspection by a regulator.

    We understand that cybersecurity is only as effective as the team that implements it. Organisations in the information space would also be well served to ensure that employee training keeps pace with the cybersecurity technology they employ.

  • Osun’s actions against Segilola Resources -How not to boost investor confidence

    Osun’s actions against Segilola Resources -How not to boost investor confidence

    By Bulus Katako

    Nigeria is at a critical juncture in its journey towards economic transformation, with the solid minerals sector positioned as a key component of the country’s diversification strategy. With over 44 identified solid minerals across the nation, the mining industry represents a significant opportunity to reduce reliance on oil. However, unlocking this potential requires substantial capital investment—a hurdle many local investors find challenging due to the high cost and the relative infancy of the mining sector in Nigeria. As a result, foreign direct investment (FDI) has become essential for the sector’s growth.

    Despite a global decline in FDIs to Africa, which fell by 3% to $53 billion last year, the mining sector in Nigeria has attracted notable international interest. A leading example is Segilola Resources Operating Limited (SROL), which operates Nigeria’s first commercial gold mine—the Segilola Gold Mine in Osun State. SROL’s success demonstrates that Nigeria can be a viable destination for international mining projects and serves as an encouragement for further investment in our mineral resources.

    Recently however, the Osun State government made serious allegations against SROL, accusing the company of tax evasion and environmental degradation. According to a press release from the state government, SROL allegedly owes ₦3,250,598,513 in unpaid taxes. As an observer, my initial reaction was that this figure seemed disproportionate and warranted further scrutiny.

    Information from SROL indicates that the company formally objected to the tax findings presented by the consultant engaged by the Osun State Internal Revenue Service, and it provided explanations and records to substantiate its Withholding Tax (WHT) and PAYE remittances for the period 2019-2023. According to the company, a meeting was held on July 25, with representatives from the state government and the tax authority to discuss the liability, and a final reconciliation meeting was scheduled for September 2, but was later cancelled by the state. SROL later received a letter from the Osun State Internal Revenue Service dated September 23, revising its tax liability to ₦98,347,105.18, with a 30-day payment window.

    It is concerning that, just days after issuing this revised tax assessment, the state government made public accusations of tax evasion without giving the company and its tax consultants the opportunity to review the newly claimed outstanding tax remittance, to which they are rightfully entitled. The significant reduction in the claimed liability raises questions about the initial accusations and the overall handling of the matter by the state.

    There have also been reports from state officials claiming that Segilola began bankable gold production in 2019. However, it is a matter of public record that SROL poured its first gold in July 2021, not 2019 as some state officials have implied. A mine’s development is a multi-year process, requiring careful planning, construction, and investment before production can begin.

    The spread of misinformation by state officials is troubling and could harm investors’ confidence in the sector.

    On September 30, the Osun State Government sealed the Segilola Gold Mine under the authority of a magistrate court’s order. However, it is important to note that solid minerals fall under the Federal Government’s Exclusive Legislative List meaning the state government lacks jurisdiction to seal the site or disrupt the mine’s operations. Furthermore, this overreach risks setting a dangerous precedent that could deter future investments in Osun State and across Nigeria’s mining industry.

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    It should be noted that, in response, the company obtained an interim injunction from the Federal High Court, issued by Justice Emeka Nwite on October 3, restraining the Osun State government from interfering with SROL’s gold mining operations or restricting access to the mining site. This injunction will remain in place until the hearing of a Motion on Notice for an Interlocutory Injunction, scheduled for October 17.

    However, the Osun State government subsequently secured a restraining order on October 7, against SROL from the Osun State High Court, granted by Justice A.A. Aderibigbe, prohibiting the company from resuming its mining operations until the alleged tax liability is settled.

    From my understanding, in matters where both federal and state courts have concurrent jurisdiction, once a case is brought before the Federal High Court, it is improper for one party to seek a ruling on the same issue from a state high court while the federal case is still pending. Any contestations must be made in the court where the original suit was filed.

    Interestingly, SROL has been accused of environmental violations by the Osun State government. However, the primary regulators on environmental matters—the Federal Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Solid Minerals have not corroborated these claims. In fact, during a visit to the site by the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake in April, no reports or concerns were raised about environmental compliance. Furthermore, an environmental compliance visit was carried out by the Ministry of Environment on September 6 which included representatives of Osun State. Following the site visit, there was no complaint or notification of non-compliance by the company. 

    What is also noteworthy is that while these accusations against SROL are publicised, little has been done by the state government to address illegal mining activities, which pose significant environmental risks in Osun State. These illegal operations continue unchecked, causing far greater environmental damage than any legitimate, regulated mining project.

    Furthermore, it is concerning that neither the governor of Osun State nor any senior government official has made an official visit to the Segilola site since assuming office. Given the level of investment, employment and development SROL has brought to the state, such an oversight raises questions about the basis for these serious accusations. What should concern us all is not just the impact on SROL, but the broader implications for investors’ confidence. If one of Nigeria’s most successful mining companies can be subjected to such treatment, what does that signal to other investors? This blatant overreach risks derailing Nigeria’s economic diversification efforts and undermining the hard-earned progress made in the mining industry.

    There is no escaping from the fact that the actions of the Osun State government have far-reaching implications beyond the borders of Osun State. They jeopardise Nigeria’s standing as a destination for foreign investment in the mining sector and threaten to derail the nation’s broader economic diversification efforts. Recently, the Miners’ Association of Nigeria had added its voice to the matter by calling on the federal government, particularly the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, to intervene in this matter.

    It also called on the Osun State government to reverse its actions immediately, withdraw its court orders and engage in constructive dialogue based on facts, not baseless accusations. The time for grandstanding is over—what is at stake is the reputation and future of Nigeria’s mining industry. It is important to accede to this voice of reason before it is too late.

    •Katako, a public affairs analyst, writes from Jos.

  • Nigeria and the changing world order

    Nigeria and the changing world order

    By Abdulkabir Muhammed

    History has proven that the world is not static just as nature abhors a vacuum. The shift in the balance of power has evolved different epochal characteristics that are spurred by situational realities. After vivid examination of the rise and fall of global empires, historians and international relations experts, such as John Bagot Glubb, have concluded that empires survive an average of 250 years before collapsing and giving way to another empire.

    From the Dutch Empire in the 1600s to the Pax Britannica in the 1800s, and the Pax Americana which began after the Great War, the world is set for another order. The shift, this time, is channelled toward the East, which is pushing for a multilateral system—some even argue that we are in a multipolar world already. The emerging world is driven by scientific advancements, digital technology, military strength, economic buoyancy, international trade, education etc.

    Nigeria, as well as many other African states, does not seem to be active in this changing world order because it fails to live up to the above elements.

    Nigeria seemed to have taken a revolutionary step, upon gaining Independence in 1960, when its first and only prime minister, Tafawa Balewa declared that Nigeria would be non-aligned in the struggle between the Western capitalist and Eastern communist blocs—known as the Cold War. However, that is not enough for a country to be an actor in this changing world. The discovery of oil in the years preceding independence and the oil boom of the 1970s placed Nigeria in the limelight of world affairs, playing significant roles both at the regional and supranational levels, hence, the appellation, “Giant of Africa.” However, the 21st century has demonstrated to the world that although natural resources, population, participation in international peacekeeping, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are criteria of a great country, they are not as important as science and technology, sophisticated military and buoyant economy. Nigeria is marginalised from the changing world due to its floating economic growth and development, slow technological pace, lack of equipped military, lack of quality education, and issues of a floating currency.

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    Nigeria needs to improve its technology pace to be able to play a prominent role in the changing world. It is no more news that the 21st century is driven by technology which cuts across all strata. Lack of technological advancement in the economic, military and educational sectors is a bane of Nigeria’s role in this changing world. Nigeria was ranked the 13th most innovative country in Africa and 109th in the world by the Global Innovation Index in November 2023. This depicts how much the country is lagging in technology. In the agricultural sector, for example, crude implements dominate the production process, thereby forestalling substantial output. Agriculturalists have low access to modern implements to carry out production. The infrastructural deficit reflects on Nigeria’s transportation system which has not properly utilised technology.

    Therefore, aside from the devastating effects that infrastructural deficit causes by scaring away investors, it has also accounted for the low productivity in agriculture. Although agriculture contributes 35 per cent to the country’s GDP, that is much lower, argued Ambassador Samuela Isopi, than its potential. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s health sector is not spared from the shackles of this infrastructural deficit.

    Additionally, insecurity poses a major challenge to Nigeria’s survival in the contemporary world. As of 2023, Nigeria was the 15th most fragile state in the world, according to the 2023 Fragile States Index. Non-state actors such as Boko Haram, ISIS, and ISWAP have been terrorizing the country, attacking the “food baskets” of Nigeria. Farmers-herders imbroglio further contributed to Nigeria’s economic dilemma as the country keeps importing most of the foods it produces as a result of food insecurity. As imports usurps exports, the Naira struggles under perpetual siege. Yet, the mainstay of Nigeria’s revenue—the oil—has continued to suffer from pipeline vandalism and thefts. Unfortunately, such a country as Nigeria, which is prone to terrorist organisations, finds it difficult to attract foreign investors. Besides, local investors are not safe in the hands of armed robbers and ransom kidnappers.

    Industrialization is very low compared to the developed world. Nigeria’s enormous resources seem to be contributing less to her development as these resources have to be transported to the industrialized world to be transformed into usable goods. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and other top oil-producing states are benefitting hugely from oil because the entire production of the crude into finished products is carried out from within. Nigeria, on the other hand, imports premium motor spirit because the country’s refineries are “inoperable.” Yet, where there seem to be attempts from the private sector, such as the Dangote Refinery, to buffer the cost of transporting the oil products and avert petro-piracy, there have been allegations over “stakeholders” sabotaging the indigenous refinery! This begs the question of corruption and the political will of the Nigerian leaders.

    There is also a lack of utilisation of natural resources. Aside from crude oil, industrial resources like natural gas, coal, iron ore, lead etc., have not effectively been utilised to ignite industrialisation in Nigeria. Moreover, the issue of epileptic power supply is a hydra-headed monster that obstructs the functioning of Nigerian industries and the productiveness of the private sector. 

    Furthermore, despite the human capacity of the Nigerian Army and other defence agencies, the military, especially, lacks substantial equipment to play its role of territorial defence. In a 2022 military ranking by Global Fire Power (GFP), the Nigerian military was ranked third on the continent and 35th globally. This was in contrast with the 2024 global ranking which placed Nigeria in the 39th position, globally! In this nuclear age, where military power and victory in war are no longer defined by physical might or large armies, one critical element of a country’s military power is possessing nuclear bombs. Nigeria possesses no nuclear weapon or weapons of mass destruction (WMD) which could serve as a deterrence and bargaining factor in its international relations!

    Aside from the United States which had deployed nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, none of the states that possess nuclear weapons has deployed it in warfare. Iran and a host of countries have been building their nuclear capacity not to exterminate the whole universe, but to maintain deterrence.

    Finally, the lack of quality education portends a great risk for Nigeria in this changing world. Admittedly, educational standards have diminished all over the world, but Nigeria’s case is alarming. The lack of technological infrastructures hampers educational excellence. The lack of a conducive environment and study materials for students accounted for the low output in the educational sector. Unequipped laboratories, poor connectivity and research institutes affect quality research and innovations in academia. As a result, there is a surge in the number of Nigerian students and academics abroad who have fled the country for educational purposes. As more and more students travel abroad, it has a dilapidating effect on the Nigerian currency. 

    How Nigeria can utilise its potentials in this changing world order

    With a population advantage of over 200 million, Nigeria, like China and India, has the potential of an actor and not just a factor in the changing world, if properly utilised. The government should maximise the brains in the country while improving its technological initiatives. Technocrats should be made to head critical positions. The government must realise the effects of the brain drain accrued from the surge of emigration of medical practitioners and academics. Inducements in the form of emoluments and allowances should be given to necessary civil servants to accelerate productivity. More importantly, Nigerian scientists and technologists should be equipped with the necessary training and financing required to carry out inventions. Nigeria should collaborate with scientific powers to train local scientists to produce local sophisticated weapons thereby reducing the government’s spending in procuring weapons from overseas.  

    Furthermore, Nigerian citizens should be sensitized to what has been termed “citizen diplomacy”, which connotes that every Nigerian has a role in portraying Nigeria’s image abroad. In many cases where Nigerians perpetrate one crime or the other, paint a bad image of Nigeria. If properly utilised, the large Nigerian diaspora communities can play, in their respective host countries, the roles that the Jewish Community plays in the United States, thereby commanding global powers’ alliance.

    Nigeria can leverage its arable land for the production of substantial agricultural products for export, to increase its revenue, as well as strengthen its currency through foreign trade. Technological aids should be given to farmers to facilitate robust production. In this evolving multilateral world, membership in international organizations such as BRICS, will help Nigeria strengthen her economy by trading in her currency among many other nations. Above all, issues of corruption and political will must be addressed to have an effective restructuring of Nigeria’s governance and, by extension, international relations.

    •Muhammed from Lagos State University, Ojo writes via abdulkabirm87@gmail.com

  • The Anambra Local Government Bill

    The Anambra Local Government Bill

    By Opatola Victor Esq.

    The Supreme Court in a recent judgement granted financial autonomy to local governments and authoritatively pronounced local government as the third tier of government in Nigeria. This judgment unsurprisingly has met stiff resistance from a lot of quarters, chief of which are some state governors who have made open their displeasure with the judgement and thus making conscious effort to run circles around it. In Anambra State, a recent legislation by the state House of Assembly attempts to channel funds from local governments into a consolidated account in the guise of percentage remittances, has raised serious questions about legality, transparency, and control. This article discusses the illegality of the effort. 

    One of the most glaring provisions of the said Anambra State Local Government Law 2024 is Section 13, which mandates that allocations received by local governments from the federal government must first be deposited into the state’s joint local government account. The state government then determines how these funds are distributed. This is an unmistakable violation of the recent Supreme Court judgment, and it’s hard to miss—it’s as obvious as night and day – the illegality of that section needs not be be-laboured.

    Another troubling provision comes from Section 14, which requires local governments to contribute a percentage of their federal allocation funds, such percentage to be determined by Anambra State Economic Planning Board, into a so-called Consolidated Fund. The purpose? “The uniform provision of common services,” according to the law.

    But what does that even mean?  In this case, any thing framed as “common services” must be within the powers and responsibilities of each local government and ought to be governed by an independent commission with equitable representation as seen with the UBEC Fund. Even more, the particular section stated that the particular percentage to be remitted by local governments will be determined by State Economic Planning Board – we state boldly that the State Economic Planning Board has no such powers under the law to determine a deduction from a statutory fund and thus will be acting ultra-vires and beyond its powers.

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    What’s particularly worrisome is that the Anambra State House of Assembly is overreaching. According to Section 7(6) of the Nigerian Constitution, the National Assembly is tasked with making provisions for statutory allocations of public revenue to local government councils. In contrast, section 7(6((b) stipulates that state legislatures can only make provisions for the statutory allocation of public revenue to local government councils within the state. The idea that a state assembly law can dictate how federal allocations should be handled by local governments is not just wrong—it’s illegal from the start. Every attempt to deduct local government funds in this manner is void and without any legal standing.

    Sections 16 and 17 of the law introduce yet another controversial mandate: the creation of a Local Government Joint Security Trust Fund. Each local government is required to pay 20% of its allocation into this fund, a hefty sum for any local government. But here’s where things become even more questionable. The fund is controlled by a committee dominated by the governor’s appointees. The Special Adviser on Security, the Commissioner for Security, three mayors appointed by the governor, and the accountant general for local governments make up this committee. Out of 21 local governments in the state, only three have any representation on the committee, and all the decision-makers are governors appointees one way or the other, which makes obvious the disguise.

    It’s not hard to see what’s happening here. This setup allows the governor to maintain near-total control over how the money is spent, with little input from the majority local governments that contributed the funds in the first place. Its central control in the name of a joint fund, and it strips local governments of any real say in the matter. Courts, when it looks closely at this structure, will recognize it for what it is—an attempt to consolidate power under the guise of shared responsibility. The law will be seen for what it is – a sham, a subterfuge, mere cloak and a device to disguise the true nature of the intended arrangement.

    The constitutional issues go deeper. If local governments are already contributing 20% of their allocations for security, what exactly is the governor’s monthly security vote—his substantial budget for security—being used for? And more importantly, can a state law really force local governments to shoulder a responsibility that isn’t explicitly outlined in the constitution? Local governments, under Nigerian law, are not tasked with security to this extent. Forcing them to contribute to a security fund is not just a misallocation of resources; it’s a clear overreach of legal authority.

    Federal and state powers are carefully divided for a reason. Just as the federal government cannot impose financial responsibilities on state governments without their consent, state governments cannot force local governments to contribute to initiatives that fall outside their constitutional  powers and jurisdiction. This is a bedrock principle of governance in Nigeria, and any law that attempts to blur these lines will not hold up under scrutiny.

    At the heart of this issue is an apparent effort to sidestep the Supreme Court’s ruling on local government financial autonomy. The law, when subjected to rigorous legal examination, falls apart. Its flaws are clear, its motives questionable, and its constitutionality shaky at best. The courts, without a doubt, will see this for what it is—a thinly veiled attempt to maintain control over local government resources, in direct opposition to the principle of autonomy.

    This law is not about common services or joint security. It’s about control, and it’s bound to unravel.

    •Victor Esq. Writes via Adeopatola@gmail.com

  • Lagbaja’s lecture in UI: Matters arising

    Lagbaja’s lecture in UI: Matters arising

    • By Francis Olufemi Jegede

    It was the first strategic personality lecture of the Institute for Peace and strategic studies, Faculty of Multidisciplinary Studies, Department of Peace, Security and Humanitarian Studies, University of Ibadan (UI) and the first strategic personality lecturer was the Chief of Army staff, Lt. Gen. Taoreed Abiodun Lagbaja. The title of his lecture was “Combating an Adversary Without Boundaries: The need to implement a whole of society approach to Nigeria’s National Security”.

    However, that was not the original lecture topic as proposed by the organisers. The organisers had used “Combating an Enemy without Boundaries”, but the Chief of Army staff replaced the noun “enemy” with “adversary” arguing that in professional semantics, there is a difference between an enemy and adversary. But what is the difference?

    Listen to Lt. Gen. Lagbaja: “those Nigerians who take up arms as terrorists, violent extremists, insurgents and bandits and are being engaged for their criminal activities cannot be referred to as enemies but rather adversaries because they are Nigerians. In military or security contexts, Lt. Gen. Lagbaja explained, “an adversary typically refers to a person, group or action that is considered a threat or opposition. When there is a conflict or crisis over political, economic or social issue in the country, it is simply an internal security challenge. And the Police is constitutionally the lead agency. Thus, the violent Non State Actors (NSAs) involved in such conflicts or crises are tagged adversaries, rather than enemies”.

    An enemy on the other hand, according to the Army boss, ‘is a hostile nation or its armed forces especially in times of war. Essentially a military force may engage in war on behalf of a state against the armed forces of another state. In this example, both military forces would consider themselves enemies, because they fight a war for interest territorial integrity of their states at the request of the political leadership. Having clarified the concepts, Lt. Gen. Lagbaja who dissected various challenges confronting Nigeria and their causes noted with sadness that today’s technological environment has created some negative consequences, which he said included the ability of violent NSAs or Nigeria’s adversaries to relate seamlessly in real time using artificial intelligence platforms to wreak havoc on their target country and may even be done with support from collaborators in neighbouring countries and beyond.

    “Boko Haram for instance is affliated to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, while ISWAP has linkage with the global Islamic state. Nigeria’s boundary or borders therefore is of little effect or deterrence to their activities. In the case of Simon Ekpa, the factional leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra [IPOB] is able to raise funds from Finland, where he is domiciled to foment troblue in Nigeria.  Nnamdi Kanu, the other factional IPOB leader who also raised funds for the movement was living in the UK before his arrest. He also used a radio station in that country UK to whip-up sentiments and agitations against a legitimately elected democratic government in Nigeria.

    According to Lt. Gen. Lagbaja who was represented by the General Officer Commanding (GOC), 2 Division Nigerian Army, Ibadan, Maj. Gen. Obinna Onubogu “another issue that exists in our contemporary society is the anarchical nature of the international system. This can be clearly gleaned from the earlier activities of Nnamdi Kanu who operated freely from the UK. This shows that some western countries may be quick to advocate democratic practices when issues of governance arise, but sometimes fail to support a democratic country when the need arises. Secondly, countries like Israel pursue their national interests engaging organisations tagged terrorists with strong support of the West in furtherance of the acclaimed global ‘war on terror’. What is clear, is that the same level of assistance given to countries like Israel, cannot be said to have been provided to Nigeria in the face of heightened threats to Nigeria’s national security by violent extremist organisations.

    Read Also: Lagbaja tasks soldiers to rise against security challenges through technology

    Tracing the causes of violence in Nigeria, Gen. Lagbaja noted that the twin problems of unemployment and poverty has given impetus to security challenges, as the unemployed and poor are susceptible to recruitment by criminals and violent NSAs. Unfortunately, the global financial crisis which has prevailed since 2008 has not spared Nigeria, as unemployment has risen alongside poverty.

    However, as part of its strategies to win the wars and respect human rights, the Army boss disclosed that the Nigerian Army had established human rights desks across its formations, which are under the supervision of the Department of Civil-Military Affairs. A robust Code of Conduct and Rules on the use of force have been produced to guide personnel when deployed in internal security. The Nigerian Army has also taken deliberate steps to investigate all allegations of human rights abuses against it and where violations occur, sanctions are applied in line with extant laws and regulations.

    Again, Gen. Lagbaja who insisted that winning the war required the active participation of all stakeholders stressed that there was a need for security awareness and education for all segment of the country. The Ministry of Education could lead this to ensure that security education is part of students’ curriculum irrespective of the level. The National Orientation Agency, as part of the larger Ministry of Information, should also raise its campaign on this.

    In conclusion, Gen. Lagbaja observed that implementing a whole-of-society approach in Nigeria involves leveraging the strength of every stakeholder to ensure a cohesive and coordinated response to threats. To achieve this, there must be enhanced communication, cooperation and trust among the different sectors while also ensuring that their efforts are aligned with national interests and other security objectives. The strategy can potentially address the root causes of insecurity, such as poverty, unemployment and social injustice often exploited by adversaries.

    It is stating the obvious to say that Lt. Gen. Lagbaja is a thorough professional who absolutely understands the nitty-gritty of his job. His enviable exploits in various theatres of war within and outside the country prior to his appointment are well-documented. He is an asset to this country. As his childhood friend, I am proud to say that, apart from his uncommon bravery, commitment and courage, the hand of God is obviously upon this Army Chief. In our chit-chat shortly after his commissioning ceremony into Nigerian Army on Saturday, 19 September, 1992 in company of Bamidele James Akinpelu, the then young Lagbaja charged us to be praying for him because, according to him, “I have decided to lay my  life down for the betterment of Nigeria” Those of us around him were shocked and scared by his deathly declaration. The trip from Ibadan to NDA depot in Zaria was then our biggest adventure in the middle of our exams for the academic session. But today, see what God has done  with his life. His is a story of divine protection and assistance. We are so happy for him.

    It was against this background that we decided to honour him shortly after his lecture in UI through the General Officer Commanding (GOC), Maj. Gen. Obinna Onubogu who represented him. We were delighted to present him our gift and some other gifts by the Institute, because he has done well. The icing on the cake was the Investiture of the Army Chief with the Fellow of the Society for Peace Studies and Practice (fspsp) ably performed by the President of the Society, Mr. Nathaniel Msen Awuapila (fspsp) on behalf of the BOT, chaired by Prof. Suleiman Elias Bogoro (fspsp). May God continue to protect our own Chief of Army Staff and his troops.

    • Jegede (07066622111) is with the University of Ibadan. Email: francisolufemijegede@gmail.com
  • Energy security: catalyst for economic growth and poverty alleviation

    Energy security: catalyst for economic growth and poverty alleviation

    Conventional wisdom dictates that insecurity rises with unemployment and poverty because unemployment leads to loss of income which affects the people’s ability to pay their bills and provide basic necessities for their house-holds and dependent relatives. It is because of the insecurity posed by unemployment that advanced countries make social security payments to the unemployed to keep them off the streets until they get jobs. This has helped to make their nations safer than countries like Nigeria where no forms of assistance are given to the unemployed.

    The massive increase in oil revenue as an aftermath of the Middle-East war of 1973 created unprecedented, unexpected and unplanned wealth for Nigeria. The national currency, Naira, strengthened as foreign exchange inflows outweighed outflows, and foreign reserves were built up. Up until 1985, the Naira was stronger than the US Dollar. This encouraged import-oriented consumption habit that soon turned Nigeria into a perennial net importer, which became a major problem when oil earnings decreased with lower international oil prices. External reserves collapsed, fiscal deficits mounted and external borrowing ensued with the “jumbo loans” taken in 1979. Most of Nigeria’s macro-economic indices became unstable and worrisome.                         

    Several policy initiatives to address the defective structure and inefficiencies were taken, but poorly implemented and sometimes contradictory (with cases of self-interest motivated reversals). These created new distortions and further weakened the inchoate institutions for policy implementation. The average Nigerian therefore, became so sensitive to petroleum oil and all the variables surrounding it, to the extent that any development in the international oil markets invites an almost instantaneous reaction from domestic economic agents and policy makers alike.

    On September 15, the NNPCL received the first batch of products from Dangote refinery. The NNPCL, saying it bought per litre at N898, put the pump price at between N950 in Lagos; N992 in Abuja and N1,019 in Maiduguri, which is the farthest distance to the Lagos supply point. The price announcement sparked outrage among Nigerians, who eagerly expected a lower pump price from the Dangote Refinery. The expectation in many quarters is that Dangote Refinery will be an elixir for the fuel subsidy issues. We must bear in mind, that, Dangote and NNPCL are corporations and must make profit.

    The chief aim of a corporation is to produce profit; while the chief aim of a republic (government) is to protect the liberty, dignity and security of the citizens. We live in unpredictable, ever-changing and variable world. So, we must understand the times we live in and the prevailing circumstances. And our strategy for nation building should be in harmony with the time and prevailing circumstances.

    At this time in world affairs, the prevailing circumstance is globalization. Globalization reduces the autonomy of national governments over spending decisions. International trade puts pressure on governments to cut spending, especially with respect to social welfare spending in developing countries. International groups have increasingly called for ending subsidies on fossil fuel—for economic and environmental reasons—and energy policymakers inside Nigeria have aired similar views. They argue that, with the removal of fuel subsidy, the government can free up resources that would have been spent on the subsidy to invest in other critical sectors such as education, healthcare, security and infrastructure.

    While the advanced nations preach deregulation, decontrol, free trade and the elimination of subsidies to poor nations like Nigeria, they themselves control their foreign trade, and maintain welfare schemes and various subsidies. In the U.S.A, there are numerous government programs that together make up the social welfare system. Large oil companies in the United States receive subsidies in the form of tax credits and exemptions. This is the two-facedness endemic in international affairs; what is good for the goose might not necessarily be good for the gander.

    Nigerians should come to terms with the removal of fuel subsidy, as government provides palliatives including sell of subsidized rice to civil servants. The real safety net could be provided by channeling the saved subsidy funds to improving the electricity supply in the country. With steady power supply, citizens will be saved the cost of running petrol/diesel generators. 

    The major constraint in continuing businesses, maintaining standards of living, and increasing economic development in Nigeria is the lack of constant electricity supply which can be linked to underutilization and under-exploration of our natural resources. Without energy security, most economic activities cannot be carried out and no country in this 21st century has substantially reduced poverty without massively making use of energy. So, energy security is a catalyst for economic growth and poverty alleviation.

    Read Also: Poverty alleviation: President should get it right this time

    Nigeria has the world’s ninth largest gas reserves and yet badly lags behind peer-countries. Much of the gas ought to have been converted to electricity for the teeming population. The benefits of gas as a commodity have not been fully explored in Nigeria. The power sector, though fraught with its own issues has been starved of sufficient gas for power production which if adequately harnessed will close the energy access gap between supply and demand in the country, currently being managed by the use of private diesel or petrol generators with negative health consequences.

    Nigeria has a total installed power generation capacity of 16,384MW. Power generation in Nigeria is mainly from hydro and gas-fired thermal power plants, with the hydro plants providing 2,062MW and the gas-fired 11,972MW. However, Nigeria is generating under 5,500 MW of electricity regularly from all available generating plants. At present, electricity demand in the country is about 30,000MW. So, we need about 15,000MW more (assuming we are generating about 15,000MW from the existing capacity of 16,384MW), to meet the demand. Using the same combined cycle gas plants, we could get there within the next two years, and it will cost about $15Billion (Fifteen Billion Dollars) at $1,000/KW. Note, combined cycle gas plant consists of a simple cycle gas plant, combined with another external combustion engine, operating on the Rankine cycle—hence its name “combined cycle”. 

    Nigeria faces several challenges in its energy sector, but there are also numerous opportunities for growth and development. Despite the challenges faced by energy sector in Nigeria, there are opportunities for entrepreneurship and economic growth in the sector. The opportunities could be harnessed through public-private partnership to enhance energy security in the country.

  • What is Soludo up to?

    What is Soludo up to?

    • New Anambra LG law leaves much to be desired

    It is obvious that governors regarded the July 11 Supreme Court judgment on local government autonomy as encroachment on their territory. Hitherto, they had treated the third tier of governance in the country more as appendage to the state governments and had always resisted any attempt to amend the law to strengthen governance at that level. The apex court’s intervention at the instance of the Federal Government was therefore a masterstroke, and those who had thought nothing could be done to ensure that the level of government closest to the people function properly without its money being misappropriated by the states were left bewildered.

    There have been arguments by states and their supporters that the federal structure accommodates only two tiers, while the local governments or counties as called in other jurisdictions, are regulated by the federating units. This could be true going by the classical

    theory by Professor K.C. Where. However, it must be noted that variants have since emerged in many countries owing to differences in sociological make-up. The American variant is surely different from the Russian or Australian model. Neither is any of the three the same as is practised in India or Switzerland.

    Besides, the Nigerian experience dictates that local governance must be weaned from the vice grips of the states if even national development is to be promoted. Whereas funds are distributed from the Federation Account across board, the states have continually pilfered money due to the local councils. This necessitated the Attorney-General of the Federation’s approach to the Supreme Court for interpretation of the relevant sections of the 1999 Constitution, and the intendment by the law drafters. Their lordships held that the essence of distributing funds to all three tiers of government from the federal distributable pool is defeated when states confiscate what is due to the lowest level. Had the governors been fair and just in handling financial matters, there probably would not have been need to approach the highest court of the land. But the local governments have been reduced to departments of the state governments where funds are only shared among the officials. Until the judgment forced them to conduct elections into the councils, many governors have been content with appointing party loyalists into caretaker committees despite the constitutional provision that only elected government is permitted at that level as is the case in the other two tiers.

    Anambra State is about the most notorious where, since 1999, successive governments have largely run that tier with appointees of the governor.

    The Governor Charles Soludo attempt to circumvent that intervention is to the end of ensuring that when money comes directly to the councils, states continue to profit from it by compelling them to remit a percentage to the intermediate government. This attempt at subverting the national structure as defined by the Supreme Court must be resisted by all nationalists and patriots. No one has the right to arrogate so much power to himself or the government under his control, to the detriment of the people at the grassroots.

    We know that other states are likely to follow suit unless Soludo is robustly checked by civil society organisations and professional groups like the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA). This is not about party affiliation but love of the fatherland and preservation of democracy and the rule of law.

    The tendency to conduct charade of elections wherever and whenever they are ever done also deserves scrutiny because financial autonomy without political autonomy is unacceptable.

    A recourse to section 7 of the constitution that grants power to states to “establish structure, finance and regulate local government councils“, is no longer applicable as no section of the law should be interpreted in isolation from others.

    Read Also: Soludo has failed to deliver on his campaign promises – Okonkwo

    It is good that this is taking place at a time when the lawmakers are taking another look at the constitution with a view to amending it. This should be done expeditiously to straighten whatever may lack clarity or is deemed unclear by people who are unwilling to let go of their control.

    We call on the federal authorities to withhold funds due to local governments in any state where they have failed to comply with the law as interpreted by the Supreme Court. It is trite that when that court rules, it is final unless there are new facts that make it to reverse itself. In this case the states, with their cause championed by the Anambra State governor, have not adduced fresh facts that were unknown to their lordships while considering the case, nor has Governor Soludo, a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and ex-Economic Adviser to the President, approached the apex court to reverse itself.

    Given the state of the country today, no one should be permitted to impede the quest to pull it out from the quagmire in which it is.

  • Starvation in Gaza

    Starvation in Gaza

    • By Hilal Elver

    The tragic effect of the use of starvation as a method of warfare against Gaza’s civilian population is acute, it is visible and it is widely known. And it’s confirmed by multiple witnesses and victims, including local and foreign medical doctors. That starvation has caused and continues to cause deaths, malnutrition, dehydration and profound suffering among the population,” International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan issued a statement on May 20, 2024, requesting arrest warrants in the situation in Gaza.

    As Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip enters its second year, 2.3 million Gazans are struggling to survive. On top of the skyrocketing death toll and injuries caused by military attacks, people are starving from the lack of food and children are dying of malnourishment. The cause of this famine is Israeli-imposed blockades on foodstuffs and other forms of humanitarian relief. Yet the UN Famine Review Committee has failed to formally recognize this harrowing reality, which is destined to worsen as long as there is no cease-fire.

    According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, by the end of July 2024, the death toll reached 40,000. The British medical journal Lancet calculated that the true death toll—if the indirect impact of war on life prospects is calculated—could reach over 186,000, a staggering 8% of Gaza’s population. This Lancet number includes more than 20,000 buried under the rubble, including 4,000 children. Additionally, approximately 21,000 children are missing in the chaos of the war. This includes 17,000 unaccompanied and separated or lost children whose parents are detained or buried in unmarked graves.

    In addition to direct casualties of war, the secondary effects of the conflict, such as malnutrition, infectious diseases, and lack of medical care have made the human tragedy in Gaza extremely severe. Starvation is a war crime if food and water are used as a weapon of war. Starvation in Gaza is clearly and intentionally caused by Israel, based on medical evidence, testimonies of humanitarian organizations, and direct statements by Israeli leaders.  

    Background of famine in Gaza

    A famine is defined as the most severe kind of hunger crisis. It is very rare, but when it does occur, it means that there is an extreme shortage of food and several children and adults within a certain area are dying of hunger on a daily basis. Famine never happens overnight. It is a process that results from political decisions and is almost always attributable to human activity. However, each famine has its own story. The origins of the Gaza famine can be traced back to 2006 when an adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert explained: “The idea is to put the Palestinians on a diet, but not to make them die of hunger.” In 2007, the Israeli government implemented the Palestinian “diet” as punishment for the election of Hamas in the 2006 election. Today’s crisis is the culmination of continuous policies to limit access to food based on calculated caloric minimum needs for survival. By the start of Israel’s current war on Gaza, the population had been under siege for 17 years. On Oct. 9, 2023, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered a halt to all human necessities. No food, no fuel, no electricity, no medicines, no vaccination activities, no access to safe water.

    This collective punishment of the civilian population of Gaza is a direct violation of Article 33 of the Fourth Geneva Convention governing belligerent occupation. As basic resources needed to survive were depleted over the following months, humanitarian deprivations quickly reached famine conditions. 

    Uniqueness of Gaza famine

    The Gaza famine is unique among conflict-induced starvation. The current condition in Gaza is far more devastating than other sites of hunger and starvation during conflicts such as Somalia, Afghanistan, Yemen and currently Sudan. In those countries, 40 to 60% of the population is enduring starvation conditions, but in Gaza famine affects 100% of the population. This means that an entire generation—335,000 children under the age of five—are at risk of stunted growth or wasting if they manage to survive. These conditions adversely affect the physical and mental development of generations to come.

    Read Also: Iran says no need sending forces to Gaza, Lebanon to confront Israel

    According to Alex De Waal, a renowned scholar on famine, “the pace and scale of the destruction of objects indispensable to survival in Gaza surpasses any other case of man-made famine in the last 75 years.” He adds: “What’s different about the Gaza case is the speed and the comprehensiveness of that destruction. We have not seen a population reduced from an acute stress to an extreme emergency on this scale in a matter of months.”

    Moreover, Gaza is the first genocidal battleground in which high-level Israeli government officials repeatedly use dehumanizing, exterminationist language in the course of acknowledging tactics obviously intended to induce mass starvation. Legal experts working on the crime of starvation and criminal accountability were surprised, if not shocked, that Israeli senior officials “are very clearly publicizing their intent.”   

    Humanity’s catastrophe

    The massive destruction of basic necessities contributes to an irreversible humanitarian catastrophe. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls the situation in Gaza “humanity’s catastrophe, not humanitarian catastrophe,” emphasizing that the international community has failed to discharge its responsibility to do all in its power to stop the war.

    Gazans are living in tents, partly destroyed school buildings, or on streets with no shelter. Nowhere is safe from the incessant Israeli bombing. This destruction has compounded life-threatening conditions, including waterborne infectious diseases, which impact negatively on the health of children and the elderly. Most recently, a polio outbreak is threatening the entire Gaza children, if a successful vaccination campaign is not implemented.

    Anything necessary for human life in Gaza is being destroyed, including food systems; 80 to 96% of agricultural assets, including greenhouses and irrigation systems, have been damaged or demolished, and 81% of the Gaza fishing sector has been permanently destroyed. Waste management facilities have been damaged or destroyed, and power has been cut or interrupted. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) estimated that at least 100,000 cubic meters of sewage and wastewater are being dumped daily onto land or into the Mediterranean Sea. Deliberate damage to Gaza’s natural resources and environment is considered a “crime of ecocide.” As a result, 100% of the population is reliant on food aid to survive and is subject to acute malnutrition, extreme hunger, and infectious diseases.

    Deeper and longer impacts of severe malnutrition on young children, pregnant women, elderly people, and persons who are already sick or have underlying conditions can make malnutrition lethal. The World Health Organization (WHO) and UNICEF warn that young children cannot tolerate even short periods of malnutrition. A senior UNICEF advisor bluntly stated, “If a child is malnourished, particularly under two years of age, they are unable to cognitively catch up with other children. The brain is such a big part of caloric and nutrient consumption in a child’s development.”

    Even if the war ends in the near future, the destruction of Gaza’s health and food systems will exert serious negative impacts on the human development of the current population and generations to come. The current situation is dire and bloody, making accurate assessments of longer-term effects fundamentally unknowable. 

    No declaration of famine in Gaza

    Famine is a technical term that applies when a population experiences extreme levels of acute malnutrition and mortality due to insufficient supplies and inadequate quality of food. The most authoritative calculations of famine statistics are done by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) that is periodically conducted with the cooperation of several UN organizations. IPC classifies five stages of food insecurity, and each stage requires appropriate action to address its distinctive problems: Phase 1: None/minimal; Phase 2: Stressed; Phase 3: Crisis; Phase 4: Emergency; and Phase 5: Catastrophe/Famine.

    The IPC determines famine exists when a population finds itself entering stage 5 (Catastrophe) after three indicators have reached the following thresholds: Famine is present when at least 20% of the population is affected, with about one out of three children being acutely malnourished and two people dying per day for every 10,000 inhabitants due to outright starvation or to the interaction of malnutrition and disease. All three conditions of famine existed in various pockets of Gaza since the first 100 days of the war. Now it is in the entire Gaza.

    Declaring famine is not only a technical decision but also a political decision. Although IPC experts, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) conduct and review the analysis necessary to classify widespread hunger and serious malnutrition as a famine, only government and top UN officials can make a formal declaration, which requires a complex bureaucratic process. In many cases, countries have hesitated to go through such a process. Therefore, authorization has been usually late to declare famine, and in many cases when famine is finally declared it is too late to save lives.

    Despite all three conditions of famine that existed in parts of Gaza since the first 100 days of the war, in Gaza, a declaration of famine was even more difficult than in other cases due to Israel’s calculated tactics throughout the war to block humanitarian aid, even when conditions of starvation threatened to reach the threshold indicator. Israel is well aware that the crime of starvation is occurring in Gaza. A declaration of famine would provide convincing evidence to justify the pursuit of accountability.

    As of this writing, famine has not yet formally been declared in Gaza. However, according to the most recent analysis of the IPC on June 25, 2024, the FRC stated that the entire Gaza Strip faces a “plausible” risk of famine in the coming months, an assessment driven by new evidence. Now, Gaza is being subjected to a famine diet that helps calculate the durability and resilience of human life without any food! It would have been possible to stop such a human catastrophe if there were a global political will, solidarity to protect vulnerable civilians and a binding convention giving states and the international community clear legal mandates to prevent famine.

    •           This article was first published in www.aa.com.tr