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  • Of the hare and the hound and Nigeria

    Of the hare and the hound and Nigeria

    • By Mike Kebonkwu

    There is an African proverb that, “a child does not ask what killed his father until he got hold of the sword”.  Methinks Siminalayi Fubara, the governor of Rivers State had not gotten full hold of the sword before attempting to  remove the dram of the hemlock received from his predecessor and godfather, Nyesom Wike.  He probably acted too hastily before the knife got to his hand, or before he mastered the dexterity of the sword.  He was grossly ill-equipped to enter into the rings with Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory; his war cabinet certainly had not been formed.  They do not belong to the same weight category in the political turf.   To engage in a fight, you have to carefully select and pick your opponent, size him up before the duel.  Do not bay for blood when you do not have the appetite for a fight and if you don’t like the taste of blood, don’t enter the ring!

    The political crisis brewing in Rivers State is more than a storm in a tea cup; it was a consuming tsunami that was bound to cripple the state.   It was beginning to gather strength but thank God the worse may have been averted, thanks to the Presidential Peace Pact, which the governor himself said he would honour the terms because it is not a death sentence.

    Politicians behave like predatory animals and would defend their colonies and territory by all means; fair and foul.  Once in power, the politician schemes to perpetuate himself in office and to continue in government by proxy at the expiration of tenure. 

    He looks for a qualified minion and willing stooge with no capacity to question his authority and orders; a glorified robot, or artificial intelligence. You are dead wrong to think that this is peculiar only to Rivers politics; it is a national malaise. 

    The problem in Rivers State is taking a toll on good governance at a huge cost.  The hallowed chamber of the state House of Assembly has been turned into a battle ground; the assembly members are everything but honourables.  Part of the assembly complex was torched and in the ensuing milieu, it was reported that the governor himself was almost shot by the police.  It is a battle of supremacy and authority over who controls the political soul and structure of the state.  Does the political structure in a state belong to the party or a godfather who runs a one-man show with puppets? 

    The governor, commissioners and assembly members in Rivers State all owe their selection to the former governor Nyesom Wike.   Fubara could not outmanoeuvre the political fox that Wike has become when he tries to assert and stamp his authority as the chief executive of the state.  Wike is a dogged fighter that does not take hostages; go and ask Atiku Abubakar. Fubara is a naive political green horn with no ideological content to confront the structure of Wike’s big war chest.  Who will blink first! 

    First, 27 members of the state assembly started plotting the governor’s removal.  The Speaker was allegedly impeached.  The 27 assembly members defected to the ruling APC.  As if that was not enough, the commissioners in Fubara’s cabinet started resigning in their numbers.  Fubara took unusual political move notwithstanding the cost and went for the broke by demolishing the state assembly complex, the symbol of democracy and Third Arm of government.  In a daring move, he proceeded to sign the 2024 Appropriation Bill passed by four members; thereby drawing the battle line.   

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    The state was gradually creeping into chaos and anarchy.  Suddenly everybody that was somebody started asking the president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu to intervene because they wanted peace in Rivers State.  It is their expectation and judgment that Mr President has the capacity to rein in the combatants.  He acquiesced and invited parties for a parley at the Presidential Villa, Aso Rock.  Indeed he did it in a grand style and an Eight Points Peace Pact was extracted and signed freely.  Now, the same people who pleaded and requested Mr President to intervene are the same bunch of people who are up in arms saying that he had no authority and power to get them sign a peace pact.  Common, you cannot be vacillating like the ocean, blowing hot and cold and expect every sane person to follow you, No!  Stop running with the hare and chase with the hound! 

    The crisis in Rivers State is an admixture of personal greed, the godfather syndrome. It is political as well as the legality of the actions of the politicians in disregard to the rule of law.  Our democracy and respect for the rule of law is poorer for it.  The crises have left the state poorer in virtue and economic prosperity.  The people are paying the price for the fight between the godfather and his rebellious minion who want freedom.  It must not be forgotten that whoever takes an oath of loyalty to a godfather in the cult of the underworld does not seek for liberty; his fate is sealed.  

    It is not only under the Sicilian mafia code that you have the godfather pulling the string and control of organizations and sometimes government structures.  In Nigeria, we have a political cartel that controls the power lever and government.  In Rivers State, the people appear to have surrendered their political space and power to Wike.  About 27 assembly members are his nominees.  He imposed a list of commissioners on the governor whom he handpicked without consultation with anybody to run the affairs of the state. At the word of command, 27 assembly members defected to the ruling APC while the commissioners resigned in their numbers like zombies to create crisis for the governor. 

    Now that peace appears to have returned; it is important to let the sleeping dog lie; you can’t have your cake and eat!  You have invited Mr President to intervene, he acquiesced and invited the warring parties to a parley and extracted some agreement, sealing a deal to end the crises and gave you the peace you want.  The governor has agreed to the terms of the peace pact, saying that no price is too much to pay for peace in Rivers State.  Why now the whining?  

    People should stop taking paracetamol for someone else’s headache. The governor has said it is ok by him to implement the agreement he signed.  The governor certainly may have shown acute lack of capacity to run a bureaucracy like a state, but that is the stooge; you have him and it is a deal.

    For the commissioners themselves that have resigned, one wonders how they will come back to their vomit.  It is clear where their loyalty lies; certainly, not with the governor or the state to serve the people.   On returning the commissioners back to office, it is just an intellectual sophistry to be pontificating that the governor having entered into an agreement must honour it willy-nilly; that is balderdash.   Nigeria typifies the only political environment where people run with the hare and hunt with the hound with little reflection. 

    Yes, the Minister of Federal Capital Territory is rash and irascible but to allow him to reduce the people of Rivers State to his political structure is to diminish the political worth and right of choice by the Rivers people.  It is up to the people whether they want to leave their state in the hands of unscrupulous political operatives to be impoverished and ravished.  If we are to grow democracy and rule of law, the people have to cut off the head of the king cobra which the godfather syndrome in Nigerian politics represents.

    • Kebonkwu Esq is an Abuja-based attorney.
  • Fubara and Politics 101

    Fubara and Politics 101

    The Governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara, has just had his political baptism of fire. If he had ever studied any bit of politics in class, he started his professional attachment, to gain practical experience, in these past few months, and seems to be his own supervisor.  When a person is in this kind of unenviable situation, a Yoruba admonition is usually, “Alátiṣe ní í mọ àtiṣe ara rẹ̀.” (‘A person charts their own course.’) This is usually an invitation to deep introspection, sharpness of vision and attention to hidden details which are the hallmarks of Governor Fubara’s profession of accountancy. These are particularly critical when he has to contend with a lawyer, versed in pleadings, and a political veteran with a variegated range of long-standing loyalists. Fortunately, Fubara appears to be learning very fast.

    On Sunday, 24 December, 2023, Fubara’s predecessor in office as Governor, with whom he had been having a running battle, Mr. Nyesom Wike, current Honourable Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, addressed the congregation of the King’s Assembly Church in Port Harcourt. Wike stated that many people who had an axe to grind with him saw the escalation of the feud as an opportunity “to take their pound of flesh”. He also counseled protesting youth as follows: “When politicians are fighting, if you don’t know the root cause of the matter, don’t kill yourself.  Because I was just laughing [at] those of you … carrying flags shouting … Assuming … another group now confronts you and anything happens, what will you tell your parents?”

    Furthermore, he observed that the hypocrisy of many of the people seeking to aggravate the crisis was shown in the fact that they called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to intervene to restore peace to Rivers State, but, having intervened and restored some peace, the same people have been condemning the President for lacking the constitutional power to intervene. The President has therefore been driven into the dilemma of ‘Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.’ Wike then declared: “I, no matter what [the] circumstances, [if the] President invites me to a meeting and tells me to do something, within 24 hours I will carry it out”, in deference to the President, and for the sake of peace.

    Wike also disclosed: “Some of you do not even know that Mr. President had invited us privately and said do this do this do this do this and you [Fubara] agreed before Mr. President and you didn’t do it and [the] President has now invited … the larger state.”  This seemed to be insinuating intransigence on the part of Governor Fubara.  Wike’s handling of the feud is therefore consistent with what is recommended by the Yoruba proverb, “Ejọ́ là á kọ́, ẹnìkan kì í kọ́ ìjà.” (‘It’s better to learn how to state your case than to learn how to fight.’) In other words, learning how to state your case convincingly would more likely get you better reward than engaging in muscle-flexing.

    The second day, Monday, 25 December, 2023, Governor Fubara had the opportunity to address the state and possibly respond to Wike’s indicting statements. In the broadcast, Fubara stated: “Let me also use this opportunity to express our profound gratitude to our dear President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, His Excellency, the President, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu GCFR, for wading into the near crisis situation that almost punctuated the prevailing peace in our dear State. Indeed, by this singular effort, our dear President has demonstrated that he loves Rivers State and cherishes nothing short of a reign of perfect peace in our State with his Presidential Peace Proclamation on the 18th of December, 2023.”

    Governor Fubara as such declared: “As a principal participant in the entire saga, I have taken some time to study the terms therein and have come to the conclusion that the Peace Pact is not as bad as it might be portrayed by those genuinely opposed to it. It is, certainly, not a death sentence. It affords some way towards a lasting peace and stability in our dear State.” He then asserted: “Accordingly, I reaffirm my acceptance of the Presidential Peace Proclamation and my commitment to implementing both the spirit and letter of the declaration.” Specifically, he said: “Already, both parties have demonstrated some good faith in the implementation process with the withdrawal of the purported impeachment notice on their part, and the release of hitherto withheld allowances of the members of the State House of Assembly by the Government.”

    In this speech, Governor Fubara spoke like a true politician, a leader and a statesman. Like a politician, Fubara was vague where he had to, explicit where he should be, and did not wear his heart on his sleeves. He said that “most stakeholders” condemned the Presidential peace plan and that, “a few others” commended it, but he did not indicate the statistical tool with which he arrived at this conclusion. He therefore gave himself semantic wiggle room. Like a leader, he indicated that he had privileged knowledge which the hoi polloi and sundry commentators on the Rivers State issue did not have; and he magisterially declared their position as inaccurate and untenable. Here, he implied that public opinion, however vociferous, could be incorrect. He therefore showed that as George Orwell put it in his famous novel, Nineteen Eighty Four, “Sanity is not statistical.”

    Like a statesman, Governor Fubara stated: “[T]here is no price too much to pay for peace … and the worst peace is better than the best war. We will strive to make peace with all segments and interest groups without surrendering our freedom or jeopardising the interest and well-being of the good people of Rivers State.” Commending this disposition, President Tinubu remarked as follows, on 26 December, 2023: “Your Excellency the Governor of Rivers, I read your statement. I say thank you very much for that statesmanship.” From all of this, what are the political lessons to be learnt?

    One, the interest of the Governor and the state, on one hand, and those of the Governor’s presumed supporters, on the other, may be diametrically opposite. While, as the Chief Security Officer of Rivers State, he believed that it was meritorious to implement the terms of the peace agreement, some who had other interests wanted him to repudiate the agreement, even if that would throw the state into deeper crisis. The hardliners seem to see Fubara as a mere tool for achieving their own particular purpose. In Yoruba language, such hardliners are referred to as “aríjẹnímàdàrú” (‘those who feed fat in chaos.’) A good politician would therefore not listen to what, in Yoruba, is called “ariwo ọjà” (‘market noise’), which is characteristically not clearly decipherable, which is distracting and for which none of the noisemakers can be easily held to account. At the end of the day, the buck stops at the Governor’s desk.

    Two, a good politician knows that genuflections and affectations of love for an incumbent office holder are superficial and usually end as the tenure of the holder ends. This reality dawned on former Governor Nyesom Wike when, just about six months after leaving office and while already appointed Honourable Minister of the FCT, he attended a church service in Port Harcourt, but was not given due recognition. He noted in protest the second day, 11 November, 2023, at another church service: “When I was Governor here, you were all praising me heaven and earth … and prayed for me [saying], I did this; I did that; I did that. Fake! Fake! Fake!” Wike should have appreciated the discernment of the Yoruba proverb, “A kì í ké ‘Yàgò!’ fún ẹlẹ́sin àná.”  (‘People don’t shout “Clear off the road” for yesterday’s horse rider.’) This would not cease to be true when Governor Fubara leaves office.

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    As in play-fighting by goats, real politicians do not normally fight with their eyes closed, do not fight to finish and rarely hurt one another fundamentally while fighting. That may explain the tendency for Nigerian politicians to defect from a political party to another one, return to the first party shortly after and defect again to the second party or another one, before long. Real politicians do not throw the baby away with the bath water. This set of facts seemed to have eluded Governor Fubara when he ordered the demolition of the Rivers State House of Assembly chambers allegedly to prevent his impeachment. As our people say, “Orí bíbẹ́ kọ́ lòògùn iná orí.” (‘You don’t cut off a head in order to kill the lice in the hair.’)

    When it happened on 13 December, 2023, the demolition (along with the stoppage of the allowances of the House of Assembly members) signaled that Fubara was a toughie who had real power as far as the current governance calculus of Rivers State was concerned. It is not certain however whether that action still attracts much admiration now and whether it would have a fanciful place in the history of political behaviour in Nigeria. In Nigerian politics, the threat of impeachment is usually a powerful negotiation strategy. Those who usually hurt themselves in political fighting are thugs and related political supporters. A Yoruba proverb paints the fate of such people this way: “Ẹni tí wọ́n bá fi orí rẹ̀ fọ́ àgbọn kì í dúró jẹ níbẹ̀.” (‘The person whose head is used to break a coconut will not partake in the eating.’)

    Four, political feuds between political associates are like elixirs. As an English proverb puts it, “The falling out of lovers is the renewal of love.” The Yoruba equivalent of this proverb is “Ò̩rẹ́ ò dùn bí ọ̀rẹ́ méjì ò bá tí ì jà.” (‘Friendship is not sweet until two friends have fought.’) On the inevitability of fighting by kin and very close friends and associates, another Yoruba proverb says: “Ahọ́n àtẹnu ń jà.” (‘As close as the tongue and the mouth are, they fight.’) Another proverb then counsels, “Tí a bá jàkan, tí a bá ní kò ní í tán mọ́; ọjọ́ wo ni a ó tó tún jà òmíràn?” (‘If we fight on one occasion and say we won’t allow reconciliation, when would we have the opportunity for another fight?’)

    Cognisant of the political lessons listed above, and while not discounting the abridged Yoruba proverb which notes that “Ojú àpá kò lè jọ ojú ara” (‘A scar cannot be like the undamaged skin’), Governor Siminalayi Fubara should be genuinely amenable to and work actively towards significant reconciliation with his former mentor, the Honourable Minister of the FCT, Mr. Nyesom Wike, in the spirit of “continuity and consolidation”. The new rapport would be beneficial to him, to the Minister and to the people of Rivers State.

  • At end of 2023, nothing less than Russia’s defeat acceptable

    At end of 2023, nothing less than Russia’s defeat acceptable

    • By Bohdan Nahaylo

    As the year 2023 draws to an end, speculation about the real state of health of the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is once again on the rise.

    It seems that those who are tasked to monitor such things professionally and inform policymakers are convinced that the Russian leader is not as healthy and confident as he has tried to appear this month while announcing that he will go through the motions of standing again for the “presidency” – read, the role of Russia’s imperial despot – next year.

    Putin’s health – despite his less than crafty reliance on doubles, and carefully prepared video calls and photo-ops – remains in serious doubt. And it is not only because of what the medical experts see.

    The war against Ukraine is not going his way and there have been growing leaks about his wanting to cut a deal with the West behind Kyiv’s back. Casualties are huge and mounting, mobilization unpopular, and costs in equipment and financing rising swiftly.

    The Russian economy, despite the brave face the Kremlin’s representatives place on its condition, continues to face very serious blows. Energy markets have been lost and Moscow has been forced to compensate by selling oil and gas at reduced prices to its friends and allies.

    The blow to the prestige of Putin’s Russia has been immense and should not be underestimated. Its “mighty realm” has become largely a pariah among the states it once led or at least considered equal.

    The attacks hit a wide range of civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, a maternity hospital, schools, parks, a metro station, and a shopping mall, as well as energy infrastructure

    The likes of Iran, North Korea, Belarus, Venezuela, and such opportunistic hangers-on as India, Brazil and Hungary, are hardly the company that Putin would have preferred to be seen with in his heyday, when Germany and France played along, with the US accommodating and the G7 overall respectful. 

    By now, with Ukraine having proved it would not be a walkover and defiantly fighting back, with the West uniting and gradually rallying to its support and rejecting his crude bullying tactics and blackmail, Putin and his cronies must realize that they have painted themselves into a corner. Probably they hope that a Donald Tump victory in the next US presidential election could still extricate them.

    Yes, Moscow can still cause a lot of trouble, mobilizing anti-Western sentiment, meddling covertly or directly in the Middle East, Africa, or Western affairs, but it no longer has what it takes for the longer term to aspire to the role it had during the Cold War in a bipolar world. It is fast being eclipsed by China and exploited by other BRICS countries for their own ends.

    Even Armenia and Kazakhstan can no longer be relied on within Russia’s inner circle of former Soviet states. Ukraine, Moldova and, to a lesser degree for now, Georgia have aligned themselves with the European Union, and just as soon as something gives way in Moscow or its vassal in Minsk is disposed, Belarus will also follow them.

    The aims should be clear; not mumbled, but stated aloud: the defeat of Russia, and regime change within it.

    All this in itself is a bleak prospect and more than enough stress for Russia’s modern-day Caligula and his Pretorian guard. Logically, something has to crack: either he, or they. If not them, then perhaps even the docile Russian people so used to remaining servile instruments of tsars, commissars and Putin-likes, will also decide that enough is enough.

    After all, who expected that the last Russian tsar would be forced to abdicate in 1917 after the reverses in World War I, or that Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin would manage to emerge from within the Soviet totalitarian communist system and oversee its demise.

    Certain signs indicate that the Kremlin’s inner circle is indeed racked by insecurity and paranoia. And it’s not only Putin’s own peculiar defensive behavior, from receiving guests at the end of a long table to spending much of his time hidden away, prompting him to be labelled as the “bunker” tsar.

    This month, while confirming (as if there were any doubt) that he will run again for president, Putin’s rivals, who in the authoritarian Russian system have no chance of challenging him seriously, have been further isolated in the vast prison system in which they find themselves, or prevented from registering their candidacy.

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    It’s logical, perhaps, for Putin as a despot to try to remove his two diverse yet similarly outspoken opponents, Alexei Navalny and Igor Girkin, from the reach of the media and the outside world. But to stop a woman on a peace platform, Yekaterina Duntsova, from running? Surely, it would have made more sense for a self-confident regime to allow her to become a candidate and play this up as a supposed manifestation of Russia’s “democracy,” however twisted.

    What it means for the West

    And so, how does this reflect on the current state of health of Western democracy and its leaders?

    Informed sources tell us that there is considerable concern in Washington about what might happen if Putin were to die of natural or unnatural causes, or become incapacitated, or the victim of a palace coup.

    Better to have the devil we know in place, the reasoning seems to be, than to risk unknown forces coming to the fore and taking over in Russia.

    We’ve seen this kind of naïve, if not irresponsible, behavior on the part of Western leaders before. After the likes of President Ronald Reagan, who openly sought an end to the Russian “evil empire” – its subject peoples in Eastern and Central Europe knew then and as they do now that it was Russian in essence, something Putin himself has recently been acknowledging openly – various Western leaders got cold feet and panicked at the prospect that the collapse of the Soviet Union would be unmanageable.

    Britain’s Iron Lady, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, bought into this, preferring to see the continuation of a Soviet Union “we can do business with.” US president George Bush, in his notorious “Chicken Kyiv” speech delivered to the Ukrainian parliament in 1991, shortly before it proclaimed Ukraine’s independence, tried to persuade it to ditch “dangerous nationalism” and coexist together with Russia and Gorbachev in a revamped USSR.

    Subsequently, when Ukrainian independence became a fact, Western fears about “rogue nukes” falling into the wrong hands, generated to no small degree by Moscow, pushed Ukraine to give up its considerable nuclear arsenal in exchange for international security guarantees – only to have Germany and France eventually block Ukraine’s NATO aspirations.

    Even after Russia grabbed Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine in 2014, Washington, Berlin and Paris chose the path of appeasing Moscow. And we know where that led to: the horrific result we have now.

    So today, as the lessons from the recent past have taught us, there should be no illusions or hesitation. The aims should be clear; not mumbled, but stated aloud: The removal of Putin and indeed the very despotic, imperialistic and hostile system he represents. Yes, the defeat of Russia, and regime change within it.

    This will enable Ukraine and Moldova to be integrated into the EU and NATO, with Belarus eventually also in line. It will shore up Europe’s eastern borders and permit a new security architecture to be created.

    As for the Russians themselves, joint efforts should be stepped up to ensure that the proper messages and information reach them, despite the Kremlin’s control of the mass media and its huge crude propaganda apparatus. The choice is theirs: despotism, backwardness, isolation, stigma and the company of cynical clients or accomplices eager in the end to exploit their evident weaknesses; or a new start, both at home and abroad, as Duntsova tried to propose, with genuine peace and security.

    In the meantime, the fight to defeat Russia and thereby contain it and make it pay both externally and internally for its savage atavistic ways should be stepped up, not weakened. The spirit of Winston Churchill is called for, not that of Neville Chamberlain and Édouard Daladier. Hitler and his vile system had to be removed by force, and Germany today is not only a major player in the EU, but a strong supporter of Ukraine in the battle against the implacable Russian menace.

    Putin wants to destroy Ukraine. He sees the free world as a danger and does what he can to subvert it. He and what he represents need to be removed. Yes, ultimately it boils down to either they or we. Compromises with Hitlers and Putins do not work. We cannot afford to flinch. Tomorrow might be too late.

    ·               This article was first published in www.kyivpost.com

  • Middle East is under a three-linked conflict

    Middle East is under a three-linked conflict

    • By Jonathan Spyer

    Three linked conflicts are currently under way in the Middle East. These are: Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, the lower intensity battle under way between Israel and Hezbollah in the north, and the Houthis’ maritime campaign in support of Hamas against international shipping in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden area.

    Since October 7, most media coverage has tended to regard the Gaza war as the central arena, and the other two fronts as subsidiary to it.

    This perspective needs to be revised. All three of these fronts are part of a larger regional dynamic. And all three are currently at or approaching a hinge point.

    “We’re focusing our efforts on the south, but Hezbollah is continuing to act with aggression,” said Lt.-Col. Jonathan Conricus, speaking to journalists in Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra earlier this week. “We can do the same, if needed against Hezbollah, as we are doing against Hamas…. We have evacuated our civilians from the immediate danger zone, and we’re in a defensive posture because we’re focused on our operations in Gaza.”

    A low- to medium-intensity conflict is currently going on, north and south of Israel’s border with Lebanon, with daily exchanges of fire, constant alerts, deaths on both sides. Israel clearly enjoys the tactical advantage, and this is reflected in the casualty figures. Somewhere just over 100 Hezbollah fighters have died so far, along with 17 Lebanese civilians and one soldier of the Lebanese Armed Forces, according to AFP. On the Israeli side, seven soldiers and four civilians have died, as reported by Reuters.

    The mood among the Israeli troops deployed in the North appears upbeat and determined.

    “We’re learning every day,” Lidor, a company commander mobilized since October 8, told me. “I was in the Kfir Brigade in the regular army, so we’re seeing many things for the first time. But we’re learning every day – and we’re ready for anything.”

    But while, tactically, Israel clearly has the upper hand, on the strategic level the situation is less positive. Around 86,000 Israelis have left their homes as a result of Hezbollah’s engagement in support of Hamas further south. There are no indications that they will be ready to return unless Hezbollah’s deployment along the border comes to an end.

    As to how this can be achieved, there have been reports of a US-led diplomatic effort to move Hezbollah forces from the border. The prospects for such an effort appear poor. It is not clear what inducements the US would bring to the table to make Hezbollah act in a way contrary to its core outlook and purpose. But the reports do indicate that the US remains opposed to any unilateral Israeli military move to drive the Iran-supported Shia Islamists from the border area. The continued maintenance of an effective “security zone” on the Israeli side of the border is untenable for Israel.

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    With the basis for diplomacy unclear, and military action evidently contrary to US wishes, the situation remains blocked. For as long as it is not resolved, the current reality represents a gain for the Iran-led regional bloc’s goal of the slow chipping away at the chance for a normal life for Israelis.

    Gaza

    Israel’s goal in its war in Gaza is the destruction of the Hamas-led authority, which has ruled the area since 2007, and which ordered and carried out the massacre of October 7. Tactically, again, Israel has performed well. The IDF has moved forward methodically and effectively in northern Gaza, where Hamas resistance is now only sporadic. Major operations remain in the south, to make achieving Israel’s stated goal possible.

    But again, the strategic picture is less encouraging. Three contradictory timetables have been operating throughout with regard to Israel’s operation in Gaza. These are:

    1. The military timetable – that is, the time that Israel needs to pursue its operation to the point where the Hamas authority has been destroyed, and efforts toward the creation of a successor authority can begin, with Israel maintaining its security hold on Gaza.

    2. The diplomatic timetable – that is, the amount of time available until international pressure begins for Israel to wind up operations. The stance of the US, which historically has defended Israel for a limited period against pressure of this kind before joining it, is the crucial variable here.

  • Ex-NAHCON chair to professionals: be active in politics

    Ex-NAHCON chair to professionals: be active in politics

    The immediate past Chairman/Chief Executive Officer of the National Hajj Commission of Nigeria (NAHCON), Alhaji Zikrullah Kunle Hassan, has enjoined Muslim professionals to show more interest in politics.

    As professionals, Alhaji Hassan said, they have more to contribute to the nation in politics than their various professional fields.

    He said the situation in the southwest shows Muslims are retrogressing on the political scene.

    Alhaji Hassan spoke during the 1oth Annual Convention of the Guild of Muslim Professionals (GMP) at the Oriental Hotel in Lagos.

    While noting that he doesn’t buy the notion of playing religious politics over competence, the former NAHCON boss emphasised that there are competent Muslims who need the support of the Ummah and are capable to occupy and run many offices successfully.

    He challenged leadership of GMP to produce politically-conscious Muslims that would vie for electoral positions in subsequent elections.

    Also speaking at the event, the Managing Director of Lagos State Water Corporation, Mukhtar Tijani, described the GMP convention as a great platform where Muslim representation in politics can be increased.

    Tijani, an engineer, urged Muslim professionals to follow their thoughts around varying issues of interest with a firm action plan.

    According to him, the GMP convention should be a step to having more representation of Muslims in politics

    “The first step to having more representation for Muslims in politics is organising this kind of discussion and encouraging fellow Muslims. We should encourage each other, fund ourselves and pick amongst ourselves. But honestly speaking, for me, I’ve not drawn a line between any religion in politics. Most people I deal with, I don’t consider their religion. And I’ve never really had a reason to compare Muslim representation,” Tijani said.

    “I guess because of my political movement, I hear a lot of things people say about Muslim candidates or non-Muslim candidates. So, I think this is a great platform where people can meet and discuss and create some thoughts around these issues. I think the next thing that should follow this is actual action. As one of the speakers said, you join a registered party before you create your own party. And then you can now raise funds and directly promote or support candidates.”

    He enjoined Muslims to be righteous wherever they find themselves.

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    “Encourage people to do what is right. What religion preaches is righteousness. Do the right thing for the community and not just yourself,” he added.

    Another guest lecturer, Chief Financial Officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Modupe Kadiri, said it was about time Muslim professionals set actions in motion.

    “This is not going to be a journey of a short number of years. It might be a medium to long-term plan. But definitely, we need a strategic blueprint on how we are going to actualise and concretise the discussions we have been having over the past years,” he said.

    Kadiri charged Muslim professionals to think differently by finding solutions instead of focusing on the challenges.

    He said: “Opportunity happens when people take advantage of those things that we see that are not working. You are not going to have a situation where everything is going to be perfect. In this uncertainty or hard times, some people are making it. Why are they making it? They can think differently.

    “Rather than focus on the problem, focus on how to create a solution to the problem. The economic circumstances that we face today, every other person faces it anyway. But how come some can thrive? My encouragement is for people to use the situation to think differently.”

  • Gaza: The blood price of Israel’s fury

    Gaza: The blood price of Israel’s fury

    • By Charles Onunaiju

    The surprise attack of the Israeli illegal settlements by the armed wing of the Palestinian nationalist and resistance movement, HAMAS on October 7 got the Benjamin Netanyahu regime into a frenzy of fury with the consequence of a savagery that is unknown in all human history. The settlements are illegal because in 2016, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 2334 with 14 votes with only the U.S abstaining in reiterating its demand that Israel immediately and completely cease all settlement activities in the occupied Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem. The resolution further underlined that it would not recognize any changes to the June 4, 1967 lines, including with regard to Jerusalem, other those agreed by the two sides through negotiations.

    Without justifying the deaths of civilians in the attack, the settlements were illegal under international law and its Jewish inhabitants did so in breach of subsisting international convention

    However, had Netanyahu been killing the resistance  fighters of the Qassem Brigades, the armed wing of HAMAS, who orchestrated the attack on October 7, the orgy of horror and its harvest of deaths he has unleashed would have be more tolerable. 

    But the Israeli killing machine has been murdering children, women and the elderly and burying most of them under the rubbles. Homes, hospitals, churches, mosques, courts, sewage systems and other essential civilian infrastructure have been summarily flattened. 

    Benjamin Netanyahu and his clique in the so-called war cabinet claimed they are fighting a war but against which army or national state?

    HAMAS is no more than a nationalist movement and resistant forces whose motive and method is no less sanguine as Jewish Hagenah and Irgun, two extremist paramilitary Zionist movements whose path of terror, smeared with blood and destruction, led to the establishment of the Jewish state in Israel in 1948. On April 9, 1948, Irgun and its Stern Gang raiders carried out its most horrific massacres, when it swooped on the village of Deir Yassin on the west outskirts of Jerusalem and slaughtered nearly 200 Palestinian men, women and children and paraded those it captured through the old city of Jerusalem and thereafter executed them. The massacre at Deir Yassin formed part of the trajectories of Zionists terror that triggered the exodus of Palestinians.

    In place of the emptied Palestinian village whose residents had either been killed or expelled, the Jewish settlement Givart Shaul Bet was established. 

    The British in late 1947, worn out by a ferocious Jewish terror campaign led by people, who included future Israeli premiers, Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Shamir, had wearily explained that it would end its 30-year occupation of Palestine. 

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    After handing over the Palestine issue to the United Nations, the then newly formed international organization worked out a plan to partition the territory between Jews and Arabs. Under the plan, the Jews who made up, just over a third of Palestine’s population at that time was awarded 55 % of the land and this understandably enraged the Arabs, who were not even consulted. But even the heavily favourable distributions to the Jews did not assuage the Zionists who wanted the whole land for themselves.

    Thus, the foundation for what appeared to be intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflicts was laid. But the relevant point to be made here is that despite the British complicity in the conflict, London refrained from deploying the full weight of the formal state organized violence in response to the terror of the Zionist paramilitaries.  The state of Israel does the opposite today, deploying fighter jets in relentless bombing of defenceless Palestinian men, women and children with the declared intention to eradicate the largely invisible and shadowy Palestinian resistant fighters. The relentless and indiscriminate massacre of Palestinians in Gaza demonstrates clearly that Israel is not a state under international law or Convention but a brutal, genocidal and eccentric entity neither restrained by law nor constrained by enlightened public opinion. 

    The Zionist movement rejected the disproportionate 55% of the entire mandate Palestine awarded to them in 1947 and the current Israeli regime of Netanyahu makes no secret of its intention and desire to reclaim the entire Palestine. The current declared intention to defeat and eradicate HAMAS is a smokescreen and blatant alibi to drive away and expel the Palestinians in order to fulfil the Zionist historic agenda of owning the entire land of Palestine. 

    Since the start of the attack on October 7, what is certain is the scale of destruction of homes and other civilian infrastructure and the killing of children, women and elderly. Neither an ammunition dump nor identifiable bodies of Palestinian resistance fighters have been uncovered. 

    The world has seen only piles upon piles of civilians slaughtered. The Al Qassem Brigade, the military wing of HAMAS is estimated to have about 30,000 fighters organized in five brigades, made up of 24 battalions and 140 companies.

    The resilience and the fighting capacity a HAMAS military wing, which has seen nearly 150 Israeli soldiers killed since the Israeli ground operation and occasional missiles lobbed into Israel, means that the group is far from near extinction or eradication and that Netanyahu’s rhetoric in this direction is as empty as it is deceptive.

    Netanyahu’s frustration is understandable. Having been nicknamed “Mr. Security” for his posture of guaranteeing the Israelis eternal peace and security while their Palestinian neighbours live in perpetual turmoil of routine harassments and deaths, the event of October 7 up-ended the myth of Israel as an impregnable fortress beyond the reach of Palestinian resistance. 

    The famed Israeli internal and external intelligence and special services – both the Shin Bet and MOSSAD – which failed abysmally to anticipate let alone prevent the October attacks, struck at the very heart of Israel’s invincibility and shattered it once and for all. 

    Smarting from the destruction of her facade of eternal invisibility, the Netanyahu regime launched into a fury and rage and like a bull in China’s shop, is taking down everything along the way including the lives of babies, elderly and infirmed people. 

    Despite the eccentric rhetoric of Netanyahu and his close murderous associates, a lot of Israelis including those whose relatives are were taken captives by the Palestinian resistance fighters, believe that a permanent truce and a framework of durable solution consisting in the main, the two state framework is the most viable to bring peace between the two people in particular and the region in general. 

    The entire world views the two-state solution as the ultimate in resolving the conflict except for Washington which enables and sustains the Zionist regime’s killing machine. The US and the Israeli regime’s rhetoric of holding HAMAS accountable is a non-starter. Only a sovereign and independent Palestinian State can be held accountable, not only under the international law but even by the convention of bilateral and multilateral engagements. Only a responsible, accountable and sovereign Palestinian State can rein-in the excesses of militant groups that perpetrated the October 7 attack and therefore Israel’s security and enduring peace can only be guaranteed by a credible Palestinian state-partner, who can enact and implement laws capable of not only restraining the excesses of militant groups but punishing them according to their sovereign law. The Zionist vision of greater Israel at whose core is the expulsion and exclusion of the Palestinians is an ideological fantasy, bereft and deficient of simple pragmatic geo-political reality. The Israel that is at peace with her neighbours, including the Palestinians and trading with them and also, in an elaborate social, economic and political intercourse with them could still be the dominant and preeminent power in the region. 

    • Onunaiju is research director of an Abuja – based think tank.
  • What goes around comes around

    What goes around comes around

    • By Banji Ojewale

    The universal principle is that what goes around must come around. It’s not so in Nigeria. With us, when what goes around goes around, it does more than coming around. As it makes its return trip, it comes aground, grounding us, levelling us, merging us with the miry mud. That’s been our history, extinct and extant. We create institutions and leaders from this back-and-forth process to form an endless cycle of assailable links in governance that remind us of the famous lines of the late poet, Christopher Okigbo: AN OLD STAR departs, leaves us here on the shore, Gazing heavenward for a new star approaching; The new star appears, foreshadows its going Before a going and coming that goes on forever… (Path of Thunder).

     It is a villainous star, a kind of abiku that gives ephemeral excitement to the home where it surfaces at birth. Our present is nothing but a horrid replay of unpleasant encounters with the past. We sowed the wind yesterday; but today we’re reaping what’s greater than the wind. What goes around comes aground.

    It’s tragic that we always go back into forlorn ages for deliverance from present woes. In 1984, we all stood in awe of Decree 4, and to differ with officialdom was to court doom. We were mortally pummelled by the demands of that law under military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari. His days recorded some of the worst breaches of human rights in the annals of Nigeria. There was retroactive application of edicts that outraged Nigerians and the international community.  Yet, more than three decades later when we wanted a president to free us from the ‘clueless’ hold of Goodluck Jonathan, guess who went for. Buhari, a figure of a discarded dispensation! We dug him from his sepulchral abode, to sit over the affairs of the living; he couldn’t but bring the nation to a level where we landed in a grave crisis from which we haven’t emerged. He grounded the country and bequeathed an economy which, experts warn, won’t yield to a quick fix. They say a lot of dead debris would require to be washed away first now and  in the years ahead to make way for the real business of economic resuscitation, which would take a much longer time. We aren’t reaping the wind we sowed; we are going to be harvesting a killer hurricane.

    It’s no surprise that President Bola Tinubu, Buhari’s successor, is inheriting a country left in funereal straits. What else did we expect from a predecessor he exhumed and installed as our leader? As we all can see now, Buhari didn’t remember to take the pall over him back as he receded after his eight-year reign; it is still with us, overshadowing the entire land of the living.

    Tinubu is also under the guidance of Okigbo’s cursed star. He is planting seeds certain to grow into labyrinthine forests with the potential to ground us. He’s going his predecessor’s way, throwing free cash at challenges on the ground, when, according to experts, he could use this money to address strategic needs of the weak, who make up the majority. Those who came before him also walked this pseudo-welfarist route of easy cash solution and flopped. There was/is little to show for the billions they spent as reliefs.

    This approach is set to inject more ‘multidimensional’ penury into the system, as revealed by local and independent international figures. First, what does the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, say, even after we have released raw money to the so-called poor? The body issued a report late in 2022 where it said the number of compatriots ‘living in poverty stands at 133 million.’ This is about 63% of the country’s population. There was no indication of any impact of the various levels of the direct cash interventions initiated by the successive governments. Now the World Bank. Its recent publication says ‘extremely poor people in Nigeria (has) increased from 95 to 104 million.’ Again, nothing to reflect the success of the cash transactions between the authorities and the underclass.

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    So, why would Tinubu ply the same unprofitable path?   Why not address these issues by applying the massive funds under his watch to build critical infrastructure: schools (along with free education for all at all levels), health centres, modern roads, employment-generating agro-ventures in the rural regions, aggressive human capacity building projects etc.? Ready or ‘uncreated’ money in my pocket or in my bank account won’t bring about these fundamental changes in the polity. Rather, it will lead to individualistic misadventures and illusory perceptions of prosperity. While the government would assume it’s pursuing popular interests, it would wake up at the end of the day to face acute mass misery, hunger, depression, inflation and poverty among those we pretend we want to help. We seem not to be decoding this five-word maxim: what goes around comes aground.

    What the leaders are giving out by way of so-termed palliatives is opium sedatives from which you would wake back into the reality of your excruciating conditions, sooner or later. They offer temporary comfort, when what we need is a base on which to erect lasting social and economic justice. Throwing N35k monthly remittance to a very small percentage of the population for a limited period, offering ‘13th’ month bonus to civil servants, halving charges on public transportation or delivering free train rides during festive seasons, asking workers to cut the number of office hours to beat high cost of commuting, etc. all amount to a will-o-’the-wisp in the face of the real, long-term overwhelming concerns of the society. They don’t outwit the challenges. We’re only trying to tame a 21st Century plague with the concoctions of 13th Century alchemists.

    Thus, all Nigerian governments, military, diarchy and civilian, have trodden a predictable trajectory. As our leaders step into office, we hail them and proceed shortly to the next stage of hauling them unto our laps. It’s never a long romance. For, just a few months after the citizens release their leaders into the performance field to fulfil their campaign pledges, the administration and its agencies begin to traumatize the people with policies that whipped us into destitution in the past.

    • Ojewale is a writer in Ota, Ogun State.
  • Will 2024 be the year of the naira?

    Will 2024 be the year of the naira?

    • By Abiola Yusuf

    The naira ought to have celebrated its 50th birthday in January, five decades after it replaced the pound as our national currency. The birthday wasn’t marked. It is not impossible that potential organisers rightly surmised that it would be unconscionable to throw a naira party when millions of Nigerians are wrestling with naira scarcity. 

    This scarcity, which predated the current administration, led to cash rationing, slowed down business activities, created bottlenecks in the agricultural sector that led to food wastage and led to avoidable deaths. Disappointed and dismayed, Nigerians tried to embrace digital and mobile transactions as alternatives, but the digital system buckled and almost collapsed under the strains of excessive demand and a controversial currency redesign. Seven months down the line, the naira is now being managed by abler hands but the respite that Nigerians desire is yet to materialise.

    As the year closes and an imminent new year offers the hope of a new dawn, it is therefore imperative to interrogate the past and ask tough questions about the present. Questions about the level of preparedness of those who inherited the mess that the last administration left behind.

    On May 29, the black-market rate, which is the true market for dollar demand stood at N780 whilst the artificially suppressed official rate was at N464. Merging the two at the higher rate was a logical and necessary move. However, the poor implementation of the move exposed lapses in policy preparedness. Until the recent corrections that made the naira to recover to N980/$, before losing ground again, the poor implementation made some analysts to predict a rate of N2000 to US$1 with confidence. 

    Certain missteps might have been avoided if the government had modelled an acceptable rate band, empirically, using the true foreign reserves figure pre-announcement. Failing to do so and leaving pricing at the mercy of a handful of profit-driven commercial banks who benefitted massively from the mismanagement of the currency under Emefiele was an own goal. Without any standby financing arrangement, and a total lack of economic diplomacy, the parallel market began to move and what should have been a merger of rates became a free fall for the beleaguered naira.

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    This debacle left us with two big lessons. First lesson: current rates are not organic; hoarding, panic and speculation drove the market north of N1300. Second lesson: the currency exchange market is too pivotal to a nation’s economic fortunes to be left to the vagaries of market forces, or for a Central Bank to be a mere spectator. The hidden hand of the government must influence the float and ensure that the rate stays within a preordained band. A system that enables the official rate to oscillate between N1000 and N746 in a single week can’t continue. 

    Finally, the incoming administration’s over-reliance on their predecessors, even joining them on trips to World Bank meetings, made for poor public optics. The display of public camaraderie did not allow necessary distancing from a mess that they did not create. In the public eye, it was as if the new administration was bent on mollycoddling Godwin Emefiele, the former Central Bank governor, whom the public held responsible for the pains inflicted by the controversial naira redesign. 

    On the surface, it may appear simplistic to lay the blame for this mess at the door of a single individual who served in an administration that had several powerful protagonists. Nevertheless, any honest interrogation of the actions and inactions that led the national currency and the economy to this sorry state would, ultimately, indict the former governor as the main culprit. 

    After his fall, the former CBN governor’s court appearances portrayed him as a humble, diminutive, pious, jalabia-wearing victim whose source of strength during a difficult period is a copy of the Holy Bible that he clutches at each court session. Certainly, many Nigerians, especially those privy to the happenings in the corridors of power in the past administration, would have difficulties reconciling the old Emefiele with this new version. 

    At the height of his power, the former CBN governor, a consummate dealmaker and patronage dispenser, was the sole driver of the naira train. He determined the passengers, their cabins, the route, the destination and the train stops. He wielded power ruthlessly to the extent that those privy to the fact that the naira was swimming without trunks were too afraid to speak out. Such was his influence and power that some usually voluble analysts only recovered their lost voices after his removal from office. For example, it took his exit for JP Morgan to find the courage to say what many already knew. To wit, forwards, swaps and outright default on obligations had eroded the true net reserves to less than US$5billion and there was a backlog of unmet obligations. I digress: by now JP Morgan’s management of the nation’s reserves should be under review and the government should be considering other alternatives.

    Luckily, economic fundamentals and the stars seem to have aligned in the new CBN governor’s favour. Fortuitously, Olayemi Cardoso, arrived after the naira had been ‘floated’. Whether this delay was by design or default matters little. It was a gift that created scope for him to manage corrective measures without the baggage of the past. 

    The actions that the new helmsman needs to carry out on the monetary side are clear. Broadly, these would entail defining the band within which the naira should trade, refraining from tying the currency to what is essentially an interbank rate and addressing the negative real interest rates that are deterring much-needed portfolio flows. To truly take root, these moves must be complemented by fiscal side support and policy cohesion at all levels. The policy treatment of the 43 items demonstrates a worrying lack of cohesion. Banning items from accessing official (read discounted) foreign exchange was a failed policy that Emefiele photocopied from Egypt, where it had also failed. The policy’s long overdue reversal should have been accompanied by increased tariffs, the correct tool to discourage imports.  

    When all is said and done, 2024 promises to be a year of positive for the naira. The speed of recovery will depend on how quickly and credibly confidence is rebuilt and not the hype of ‘lines of sight’ of money that may fail to arrive. What will boost the market is a credible fiscal funding plan based on granular revenue enhancements including a reduction in oil theft and its first cousin NNPC costs. Other savings must be found by critical cost reform and the reprofiling of inherited debt can’t be shied away from. With the right pegs in the right holes and the complete exorcism of the mercantile spirit that once roamed the nation’s apex bank, the naira cannot have a worse year than it has already endured. 2023 was its annus horribilis, 2024 should be its reset year.

    • Yusuf, writes from Lagos.
  • Expectations for 2024

    Expectations for 2024

    Year 2024 wombs the hopes, dreams, and aspirations of over 200 million people. The promises of better days, of silver linings, and of blue skies inspire hope, excite essence, rally confidence, and stroke anticipation. Parturition is expected. As it is with reproducing life, after months in the throes of contractions, life comes with a bubbling of joy and happiness.

    In 2024, the seeds of possibilities and of change that have been planted by the Tinubu administration will begin to gestate and sprout.

    This is not to aver that 2024 will be all plain sailing without its own share of vicissitudes, but seeds do begin to germinate, and for exotic trees that rule the forest, it takes the opportune time and latitude of nature for them to rise eclipsing the skies.

    2023 was a challenging year. The concerns, the disruptions, and the pangs of novelty were all palpable. But all is well that ends well. There was a good reason. It was not all for nothing. The scaffolding for a superstructure had to be forged.

    In 2024, Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to dip, and the naira strengthened. According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Olayemi Cardoso: “The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and expected to maintain the positive trajectory for 2024. Inflation pressures may persist in the short-term but is expected to decline in 2024. Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce significantly with the smooth functioning of foreign exchange market.”

    What does this mean for hard working citizens? It means a fairer and stable economic climate, salubrious for planning and earning.

    In the New Year, a slew of plans and programmes of the administration will kick in. Two of such programmes, among many other policy staples, are the Student Loan Initiative and the Consumer Credit Scheme. In June 2023, President Bola Tinubu assented to the Student Loan Bill in “fulfilment of one of his campaign promises to liberalise the funding of education’’.

    The bill, which was sponsored by the Speaker of the 9th House of Representatives, Rt. Hon Femi Gbajabiamila, aims to provide easy access to higher education for all Nigerians through interest-free loans.

    Some of the cardinal provisions of the Act are: (a) ‘All students seeking higher education in any public institution of higher learning in Nigeria shall have equal right to access the loans under this Act without any discrimination arising from gender, religion, tribe, position, or disability of any kind, and (b) ‘The loans referred to in this Act shall be granted to students only for the payment of tuition fees.’

    In November, President Tinubu announced during his presentation of the 2024 budget proposals that the Student Loan Scheme as well as other education-specific initiatives would become operational in 2024 to address the long-standing issues in the education sector, and to create a more sustainable model of funding for tertiary education. The Tinubu administration is prioritising education with N2.2 trillion proposed for the sector in the 2024 Appropriation Bill.

    A defining quotient of the administration is the preponderance of people-tailored policies and programmes. Nigerians are at the heart of the decision engineering of the leadership. They are the nucleus operating the cell of governance.

    The Consumer Credit Scheme is one of the programmes to expect in 2024. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), about 70 percent of bank account holders in Nigeria lack access to credit. The Presidential Council on Industrial Revitalisation recently set up a Technical Working Group to develop the requisite framework for enhancing consumer credit in Nigeria and to achieve the country’s targeted $1 trillion economy by 2026.

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    According to the Minister of Industry Trade and Investment, Doris Uzoka Anite, an efficient consumer credit system is a highly essential component of a burgeoning economy, as it works to improve market efficiency and fill in gaps in consumption and productivity by providing consumers immediate access to credit and allowing them to make purchases ahead of time.

    “Nigeria has numerous financial institutions and credit schemes, but many Nigerians still face substantial hurdles in accessing credit due to stringent eligibility criteria, high-interest rates, identity-related challenges, fragmented data sources for proof of livelihood and financial worth, a lack of awareness or understanding of credit processes, and inadequate credit available for lending,” she said.

    Reviewing the government’s strides in 2023 and prospectus for 2024 on Channels Television’s ‘News-Night’, Ajuri Ngelale, presidential spokesman, said of the Consumer Credit Scheme: ‘There are a few things that Nigerians can be hopeful about with respect to the turnaround that is happening in the country. This is a direct consequence of the patriotic resolve of our people to allow Mr President to take these tough decisions. First, the over N1 trillion that is saved from the removal of petrol subsidy is a part of financing that we are using to fund a student loan programme. Secondly, the savings from the removal of petrol subsidy will go towards the establishment of a consumer credit system, for the first time in our history. What Mr President is doing is not only mobilising government resources, but also working closely with the private sector to re-engineer our credit system.’

    Essentially, more people-focused programmes customised for Nigerians of variegated class are expected to come on stream in 2024. The Nigerian people are the predominant concern of the administration.

    •Nwabufo is Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Engagement.

  • Nigeria’s flamboyant aso ebi dressing style is popular – but it’s become a financial burden

    Nigeria’s flamboyant aso ebi dressing style is popular – but it’s become a financial burden

    • By Susan Olubukola Badeji

    Aso ebi – “family uniform” – is the Yoruba custom of people dressing alike for social events. The custom is rooted in kinship (ebi), an important aspect of Yoruba social life since precolonial times in what’s now south-west Nigeria.

    Words like molebi (kinsmen) and olori ebi (head of the family) point to the importance of kinship in this culture. The saying eni to so ebi e nu, apo iya lo so ko literally translates as “whoever deserts his kinsmen straps on his/her shoulder a satchel of misfortune”. Aso ebi expresses these values visibly: uniform dressing is intended to reinforce unity and fraternity.

    Historically, Yoruba kinsmen wore the aso ebi – usually specially chosen fabrics – during celebrations for group identification.

    At first, inclusion and participation in uniform clothing for social events was restricted to blood relationship and mutual ancestry. As time went on, belonging to a group through uniform dressing extended beyond family circles.

    From the early 20th century, aso ebi became more about the need to communicate social worth. My interviews with some elderly people in Ibadan revealed that, during this period, it was referred to as ankoo (uniformity) or egbejoda (group uniform). Blood ties became a less important consideration for participation.

    Nowadays, aso ebi is a regular feature at social events like weddings, funerals, birthdays, conferments and political rallies across Nigeria.

    As a scholar of costume in theatre, I’ve always been fascinated by the aso ebi custom. In theatre, costume helps tell a story, among other functions, and aso ebi is also a costume in the performance of a social event.

    I wanted to know more about the modern aso ebi trends. Anecdotal evidence suggested that the practice was becoming something of a burden for some people. My research bore this out: I found that the financial burden of purchasing aso ebi was prominent among its perceived drawbacks and strengths alike.

    Aso ebi as costume

    In theatre and film, costume transforms actors into characters and depicts setting, culture, age and occupation. It tells the audience something about the character’s social class, economic worth and status in a hierarchy. Costume can project personal characteristics, deliberately or unwittingly. It can help depict relationships in a group.

    In daily life, too, clothes give us nonverbal clues about their wearers. They reveal age, mood, sex, culture, social status, religion, occupation, political affiliation and so on.

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    At social events, participants can be regarded as performers as well as audience members. Wearing aso ebi, participants are able to play premeditated or spontaneous roles.

    Modern trends

    In the last few decades, aso ebi has been embraced by other ethnic groups in Nigeria and the diaspora. The trend has extended beyond the geographical and social landscape of the Yoruba people.

    Part of the reason may be its propensity to add glamour and spectacle to events. But even more importantly, it may be due to its inclusion tendency, since it gives wearers a sense of involvement, seemingly excluding some non-wearers, thereby drawing social Lines at social events.

    It is common for guests to wear identical fabrics like wax prints (Ankara), lace, brocade and other materials to events.

    Planning and coordinating this wearing of uniforms at events has become quite a business. Usually, a celebrant chooses the fabric, determines the price and monopolises the sale to guests. Often the intention is to make a profit. Guests can’t haggle over the price and are expected to turn out in the fabric for the event, thereby creating the impression of solidarity and support for the celebrant.

    Affordability and social integration have become more significant considerations, pushing kinship to the back seat.

    Beyond the glamour, the distress

    Despite the popularity of aso ebi, my study found that it is causing some distress.

    I administered questionnaires to 270 Yoruba adults (135 men and 135 women) in Osun and Oyo states in south-western Nigeria, asking them about the challenges and merits of wearing aso ebi. Participants indicated whether they experienced any of a list of challenges such as cost, competition and issues of personal taste. The list of potential merits included boosting camaraderie and collective sense of purpose, and benefits to the producers of the uniforms.

    The results showed that the main problem with aso ebi was the financial burden of having to buy the fabrics continuously. This stems from being obliged to attend social events and the tendency for reciprocity: “I bought your aso ebi, buy mine.” People end up with a large stock of fabrics and are limited in their ability to buy, store and wear their own clothes.

    Another challenge is that buyers of aso ebi fabrics don’t have a choice or the option of bargaining, since it is non-negotiable. And the fabrics and uniforms are not always to the individual’s taste.

    Participants also felt that aso ebi encouraged unhealthy flamboyant competition.

    When they responded to the list of potential merits, they gave equal weight to aso ebi as a booster of social incorporation and cohesion, and as a source of economic value for individuals who make the fabrics.

    The practice has been commodified to the extent that cohesion, equality and social egalitarianism may be taking a back seat. Aso ebi is fast becoming a point of dissension, segregating wearers. It has a propensity to create social gulfs, distancing wearers and placing them on different tiers of the same ladder.

    However, according to my study findings, the benefits of aso ebi – like comradeship – still outweigh the challenges.

    • Badeji is Lecturer, Redeemer’s University, Ede. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. “https://theconversation.com/nigerias-flamboyant-aso-ebi-dressing-style-is-popular-but-its-become-a-financial-burden-218174”