Category: Comments

  • Ogun tribunal judgment and the shape of politics to come

    Ogun tribunal judgment and the shape of politics to come

    • By Lekan Adeniran

    he verdict of the Ogun State Governorship Election Petition Tribunal, which recently ruled in favour of Prince Dapo Abiodun as duly elected governor and the All Progressives Congress (APC) is bound to change the political narratives and permutations in the Gateway State.

    It would be recalled that the three-member tribunal, led by Justice Hamidu Kunaza, in the verdict that lasted more than 11 hours unanimously dismissed all the prayers of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and its governorship candidate, Ladi Adebutu.

    On the one hand, the verdict solidified the March 18, election victory of Prince Abiodun and upheld his position as the legitimate governor of Ogun State by reaffirming his mandate as the people’s choice and further strengthening his acceptability as the number one citizen in the state. It also gives the governor and his administration a renewed sense of legitimacy and credibility.

    It is obvious that the governor’s victory was a rude shock to the opposition, who was under the illusion that the cash rolling around would translate to victory for their candidate. This was much more reflected in the fanfare and reveries in their camp on the eve of the ruling. But, as the tribunal’s verdict was being unveiled, the truth hit very hard; the opposition, who had thronged the premises of the Isabo Magistrates’ Court in large number in a carnival-like atmosphere, could not stand the outcome and started the exodus of exiting the venue one after the other.

    Surely, the victory is a reflection of the mood of the state. It is also the confirmation of the dominance of progressive politics in the state since 1999, which has seen Aremo Olusegun Osoba, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and now Prince Abiodun as the state’s helmsman.

    To paraphrase John F. Kennedy, a former US President after the failed attempt to invade Cuba in 1961; failure is an orphan, while victory has many fathers. Apparently sensing the new beginning in the politics of the Gateway State, and prior to the ruling by the tribunal, thousands of loyalists of former governor, Amosun, led by Chief Derin Adebiyi jumped the boat to formally align with the mainstream APC in the state, led by Governor Abiodun. This move has swelled the ranks of the ruling party and further solidified it as a party to beat in the state.

    Read Also: Ogun Tribunal: PDP’s Adebutu challenges Abiodun’s victory at Appeal Court

    Prince Abiodun was ecstatic by the return of the prodigal members, even as he appreciated their loyalty to their leaders when things were not going the way they had expected.

    The governor said: “I want to congratulate your sense of loyalty to leadership, which I will say is not only commendable, it is enviable. This is a culture that we must promote and entrench. It is a culture that is fast eroding; it is a culture that we are fast losing. Loyalty is 100 per cent.

    “For some others, they move once things are not working well, but for you, you stay put. This sense of loyalty is worthy of emulation. 

    “We must appreciate the fact that there can only be one leader in a party at a time. Even when we have ambitions and desires, we must subordinate ourselves 100% to leadership and believe that it is in that subordination that will allow us to flourish and achieve our objectives, our dreams, our desires and aspirations, not by forming factions or by breaking away.

    “Because by so doing, it only weakens the fabric of that collective union that we call our party. You must appreciate that there can be only one leader of the party at a time in the state, and that leader is the governor. 

    “As the leader of the party, I appreciate the task bestowed on me and it is my duty to work towards individual and collective welfare of our members.”

    The verdict could also potentially reshape the dynamics within the opposition parties in the state to the advantage of APC. The ruling party must prepare for defections from some of the fringe parties, going by political trends in the country as witnessed in the past. 

    Recently too, the state chapter of the Inter Party Advisory Council (IPAC) has aligned with the APC by congratulating the governor on his tribunal victory while advising Adebutu to jettison the idea of going on appeal.

    Further consolidation by the ruling party may lead to internal restructuring, and reassessment of strategies by the PDP but this may lead nowhere. Its structure is collapsing 

    Governor Abiodun’s public standing and image have been bolstered as a strong and capable leader, both within the state and at the national level. The outcome could influence future electoral activities in the state, as political parties and candidates may take note of the outcome and adjust their strategies, accordingly.

    Overall, the verdict has the potential to reshape the political landscape in Ogun State by providing stability, strengthening the ruling party’s position, and influencing future political dynamics.

    • Adeniran is Chief Press Secretary to the Governor of Ogun State.
  • Mining sector and Nigeria’s industrialization

    Mining sector and Nigeria’s industrialization

    • By Emmanuel Nnamdi Osadebay 

    Mankind has strived in different ways to evolve, survive, develop, create wealth, organize safe societies and sustain human survival. Of the three different responses by mankind to survive – urbanization, industrialization and mining, mining is the oldest. Accessing specific mineral materials for the good of humanity has been an essential part of human existence since the pre-historic era. In Nigeria, a country endowed with over 44 different mineral types, occurring in commercial quantities in over 500 locations across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is naturally situated for regional and global industrial productivity. Cutting across various mineral spectrums, we have industrial minerals such as barite, kaolin, gypsum, feldspar, limestone, bitumen, lignite, uranium, gold, cassiterite, columbite, iron ore, lead-zinc and copper, among others. With these mineral endowments, Nigeria is naturally positioned for limitless opportunities for industrialization and economic growth. 

    How then can Nigeria embrace the mining sector for productivity? To build our economy better, boost the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), achieve high rates of employment opportunities and create a thriving enterprise ecosystem, we need a functional mineral sector governance. 

    As the world moves towards digitization and automation revolution, there are immense opportunities linking mining and technological development. Minerals constitute a core component of inputs used in the production of technological gadgets like batteries, solar panels, laptops, mobiles and other ICT gadgets. To fully explore the opportunities of the sector for productivity, the federal government, which has the constitutional exclusivity of ownership, management and revenue collection, distribution and management, must strengthen Nigeria’s geosciences base – which is to drive investment growth into exploration and mining industries through improvements in data accessibility for investors and other participants in the sector. 

     The mining sector has remained evident as a viable alternative to the Nigeria’s oil-based mono-economy. With the potential for inter sector growth, increase Nigeria’s export ratio, and with a global commodity price rise, there has been both local and foreign investor interests in Nigeria’s extractive sector. To unlock the full potentials of Nigeria’s mining sector in galvanizing Nigeria’s industrialization, government regulatory institutions must maintain the required reforms that would underpin the 2017 roadmap for the growth and development of the sector.

    The government must ensure that we have a competitive minerals and mining climate that is capable of contributing to processing quality products, creative wealth creation, provide jobs for the people and enhance social wellbeing. As Nigeria’s mining sectors continue to attract investor interests, extractive sector governance is required to ensure that our regulatory framework and laws are implemented and that the mineral rights and responsibilities of investors and firms as provided particularly by the principal law governing the sector – the Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act, 2007, are secured. 

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    Beyond local approval and cooperation, companies’ activities must comply with the principles of the environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards and requirements of the global marketplace. Given the multinational nature of extraction, processing, production and transportation of mined products, mining firms must abide by global standards. With decades of stagnation in Ajaokuta Steel project and illegal mining across many states in Nigeria, greater transparency is required in the Nigerian mineral and mining ecosystem. 

    With increasing demand for energy and low-carbon technologies, an unprepared extractive industry is likely to struggle to meet rapid increases in demand of mineral and metals for production. In examining future energy demand and composition through year 2040, renewable energies are the fastest growing sources of energy and renewable energy technologies such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics and wind turbines, all have huge and significant material needs. Government, therefore, must remember that the key factors limiting mineral extraction are not physical limitations, but also environmental, social and economic challenges. This requires state intervention to ensure that these connected challenges are met. 

    As global warming become more pronounced, the mining sector has a huge role to play in the world’s transition to a low-carbon economy and in mitigation of climate crisis. Though mining firms are natural target for emission-reduction efforts, legislation and lack of lending from investors looking to minimize their own climate risks, regulators must ensure that mining firms’ projects are not inhibited by carbon taxes. To achieve Nigeria’s industrialization through the mining sector, both regulators and mining firms must work to ensure sustained aversion to high-carbon projects. 

    To advance and drive Nigeria’s development goals, embracing mining revolution is critical in achieving industrialization. Perhaps, embracing the revolution will start with a secured sector security. Without security, it is difficult to attract credible, sustained and profitable investments in the sector, given that most mining locations are within rural areas. Social infrastructures like good road networks are directly linked and connected to physical security in the sector hence, public-private partnership is required to ensure that mining firms contribute to providing basic infrastructure that also benefit host communities. With good infrastructures, regulation, credible firms and cordial host communities’ engagement, the mining sector holds the key to Nigeria’s industrial and sustainable development. 

    • Amb. Osadebay, writes from Zamfara State.
  • Mohbad: We are all victims

    Mohbad: We are all victims

    • By Omotayo Ishola

    Who killed or murdered Ilerioluwa Oladimeji Aloba a.k.a Mohbad in his prime and with his precocious manifest talents?

    The death of this young man at 27 diminishes me not because I am involved (in the apology to John Donne’s poems popularised by Dim Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu in his epic: “because i am involved”) but because Mohbad shouldn’t have died now!

    Mohbad became an instant hit at his demise while he was barely appreciated in his life as a rapper maestro. That is the way of the legends of history; great stars including the religious avatar were hardly celebrated in their lifetimes. Christianity, Islam, Confuciusism, Taoism, Buddhism grew with wider appeal to nations and kingdom after the life of the founders.

    While awaiting the jury on the coroner inquest on the circumstances of the death of this promising young star, the almost consensus of opinion is that Mohbad was murdered with several conspiracy theories flying around! 

    We may never know without prejudice to the verdict of the jury! Have we known the murderers of late Alfred Rewane whose 38 years of his murder is only remembered by his immediate family, not the nation he died for, not the so-called progressive not even from NADECO, his immediate constituency? Alfred Rewanni from Warri, Delta state lived and laid all his famous resources in the fight for social justice, particularly good governance that will cater for the lot of poor masses that had been short-changed by parasitic ruling cast both civilian and military. Have we unearthed the murderers of the late Cicero of Esa Oke (apology to Yemi Ogunbiyi) Chief James Ajibola Ige who died 21 years ago?

    As a sitting federal attorney general and minister of justice Ige was murdered in his house on December 24, 2003 by unknown assassins yet to be unveiled. A brilliant orator and publicist, a linguist and one of the start governors of the second republic, 21 years after the death of Jagunmolu of Esa-oke, nothing is heard about justice to the murderers, to the society and to the family of the late deceased federal attorney general. With his death something was murdered about Nigeria.

    How about Kudirat Abiola – the amazon accidental politician, the wife of the late winner of June 12, 1993 Nigeria presidential election? Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, the husband was mysteriously murdered in detention in his legitimate desire to actualise his popular mandate given by about 14 million Nigerians across our diversities in religion, ethnicity and state distributions, roundly beating his opponent in his home state of Kano, against the run of play?

    With the murder of Abiola in gaol, Nigeria murdered true transparent and open electoral justice! The beautiful wife, Kudirat was murdered while rallying support to revalidate the mandate in daylight at Ikeja, Lagos. Kudirat Radio was birthed abroad to immortalize and propagate the ideals for which the husband and wife died for. The radio had since been extinct. Why not replicate the same at home especially by the prime beneficiaries of the present democratic harvest since 1999?

    There is Mohbad on each one all of us; Nigerians with little memory, and outlandish persecution of stars in politics, in academics, in arts, music and even ecclesiastical realm!

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    How many unresolved murder issues have remained unresolved since their occurrences? What of the murder of Alhaji Suliat Adedeji in Ibadan during the Abacha Reich? And Funsho Williams in Lagos Street? There has been several unresolved murder cases in a country that parades motley crowd of law enforcement agencies such as the police, the D.S.S, the military, the NDLEA, Civil Defence Corps?

    One wonders why there has not been the necessary synergy between our police D.S.S and other crime busters in our land to speedily unravel mysterious murder and assassinations in Nigeria! In other climes, it may take time and precious resources; no murderer ever got unrecovered with justice meted out to the perpetrator at the end. The murderer of Abraham Lincoln was given the desired justice. So was the killer of J.F Kennedy discovered after some years with necessary punitive measures? Even more worrisome is our attitude to one another.

    In the neighbourhood policing, every other person knows the various activities of people surrounding the community but rather than channel the useful information to necessary agencies, they keep mute back-biting and back-sliding allowing the ripples of crime commission to ravage everyone until the turn of the other.

    For example, on October 5, last year Mohbad was said to have raised an alarm to the effect that he was physically assaulted by the goons of Marlian records. His wife was allegedly equally assaulted by the same agency. One wonders with this vintage information in the public domain why the preliminary measure had not been taken timeously by our law enforcement agencies to protect his life. Is it because he is not a high profile politician with police orderlies and other security outposts to his back and call?

    Were Mohbad as radical as the legendary Fela Anikulapo-Kuti, perhaps he would have possibly saved his own life. Who will cry for the poor in this country? Who will weep for the child that lacks attention and social justice? The legendary social crusader Dr.Tai Solarin who might possibly take it upon himself to take the mock-coffin of Ilerioluwa Oladimeji Alaba a.k.a Mohbad and dump it before the police headquarters is no longer alive! The crusading attorney, Gani Fawehinmi who would have taken to private prosecution of the prime suspect in Mohbad tragedy and open up further public outrage and consciousness in the needless murder of a promising music star is buried in his grave. The Afro-beat music genius, Fela Anikulapo Kuti, who could have engineered group solidarity for justice on Mohbad saga has since been in the other side of the divide peacefully resting after Nigerian trauma. The likes Dr. Beko Ransome-Kuti, Kanmi Ishola Osobu, Alao Aka-Bashorun, Comrade Ola Oni, Fredrick Fasheun and the likes are no longer with us.

    Wole Soyinka, the legendary laureate has come of age and has paid more than his fair due on Nigeria stage at every critical stage. He deserves some respite from Nigeria for unbundled and unbridled injustice! Some raise a case of immorality on Mohbad; there is the worst in the best of us and vice-versa. 

    Yet, screening the concourse of empathy and commiseration over the passage of Mohbad, it is safe to conclude that he is larger than death, larger than his murderer(s). His legend truly lives on! He has become in death a parallel with living music celebrities like Davido, Tiwa Savage, Burna Boy, Wizkid and Olamide of today and the immortal music avatar like Fela and Bob Marley!

    From the United States of America, a billboard carried captivating and eulogising epitaph “Mohbad will be remembered forever, legends are never forgotten RIP”.

    As Nigerians, we await with baited breathe the final verdict of coroner inquest. With the death of Mohbad, something dies in all of us as Nigerians.

    •Ishola, legal practitioner, veteran journalist, writes from Ilorin, Kwara State.

  • Cocoa prices are surging: W/African countries should seize the moment to negotiate a better deal for farmers

    Cocoa prices are surging: W/African countries should seize the moment to negotiate a better deal for farmers

    By Michael E Odijie

    The global price of cocoa is spiking, a direct response to dwindling cocoa output in West Africa. In September, cocoa futures reached a 44-year price peak due to mounting concerns over reduced supplies from the region.

    The price surge could prove to be a critical moment for cocoa farming and policy in West Africa.

    The cocoa-producing belt of West Africa is responsible for generating over 80% of the total global output. Between them, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire contribute more than 60% to the global output. Ghana is the second-biggest producer in the world and cocoa is a vital component of the country’s economy.

    The global price spike has led West African governments to increase the guaranteed producer prices to farmers. Ghana recently raised the state-guaranteed cocoa price paid to farmers by two thirds. The announcement means that Ghana’s cocoa farmers will be paid 20,943 cedis (US$1,837) per tonne for the upcoming 2023-2024 season, up from 12,800 cedis.

    Cameroon, the world’s fourth-largest cocoa producer, raised the price cocoa farmers get to 1,500 CFA francs (US$2.50) per kilogram, a 25% jump from the previous rate of 1,200 CFA francs. This increase is even more significant than Ghana’s when factoring in Cameroon’s single-digit inflation. Additionally, the Cote d’Ivoire government has announced a rise in the producer price.

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    As an economics researcher who has extensively studied and written about cocoa production in West Africa, I contend that the recent shortages can be harnessed to strengthen the position of cocoa producers. This will enable them to address the structural challenges ingrained in the cocoa production value chain. Rising production costs have not been recognised in the value of cocoa beans. Farmers therefore haven’t been able to earn enough income and this has led to unsustainable farming practices.

    In my view, West African countries should use the cocoa shortage as negotiating leverage against multinational corporations to address these structural issues. Both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire must recognise this pivotal moment. They must take the lead, and frame the current production challenges as deep-seated structural problems requiring solutions, rather than as short-term issues.

    What’s driving the change?

    Ghana’s cocoa regulator recently indicated that its farmers might not be able to meet some cocoa contract obligations for another season. Ghana’s projected cocoa yield for the 2022/23 planting season was the lowest in 13 years, falling 24% short of the initial estimates of 850,000 metric tonnes.

    This trend has been repeated across the region, with production falling in Côte d’Ivoire and Cameroon.

    Reduced output means demand can’t be met and global prices rise.

    The reduction in cocoa output is attributed to short-term and long-term factors.

    Commentators typically emphasise the short-term factors:

    • Poor weather conditions

    • Black pod disease, which causes cocoa pods to rot

    • The decline in the number of cocoa farmers, some of them selling their land to illegal miners

    • A shortage of fertilisers and pesticides, especially since the conflict in Ukraine has curtailed Russia’s export of potash and other fertilisers.

    A number of long-term structural issues have beset cocoa farming in West Africa for decades. They shouldn’t be overshadowed by concerns with short-term problems.

    The first is the declining availability of forest land and its connection to increasing production costs.

    Over the last two decades, depletion of forest land has led farmers to turn to grasslands for replanting cocoa plants. This requires extensive land preparation, regular weeding around the cocoa trees, pruning, and the application of fertilisers and pesticides. What’s more, the plants are highly susceptible to disease. All these things result in increased labour costs.

    None of these additional burdens have been incorporated into the pricing for sustainable cocoa production. In light of the new cost structure, cocoa beans have been undervalued for decades. Farmers have become poorer and are exploring alternative sources of livelihood.

    The cost of sustainably cultivating cocoa in grasslands must be reflected in the price that farmers receive. Relying solely on market forces will not achieve this. For instance, every year, typically in September, the Ghana Cocoa Board announces the official producer price for cocoa beans for the upcoming cocoa season on behalf of the government. This official price is based on the anticipated export market price, with an understanding in Ghana that farmers should receive approximately 70% of it. However, the resulting market price, and consequently the producer price derived from it, often falls short of covering the costs of sustainable cocoa cultivation.

    A path forward

    What would it cost for cocoa farmers to cultivate cocoa beans sustainably, and ensure a living income, without contributing to deforestation or resorting to child labour?

    If the market price falls below this cost (which isn’t static), then the farmers face exploitation, giving rise to many of the problems that plague the industry.

    A few years ago, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire pioneered the introduction of the “living income differential” – a premium that cocoa buyers would pay on top of the market price to ensure that farmers earned a sustainable income from their produce. Despite its noble intent, the initiative faltered. It was not well thought through. And it came at a time when these countries had diminished bargaining clout in a saturated market. Now is a favourable moment.

    The crisis in the sector puts cocoa producers in a stronger negotiating position.

    Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire could collaborate with other regional countries, such as Nigeria and Cameroon, to negotiate a better position for their cocoa farmers, ensuring sustainable cultivation. There are many strategies these countries can explore, including supply management (such as buffer stocks, export controls, or quotas), price premiums and value addition.

    • Odijie is research associate, University College, London. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. https://theconversation.com/cocoa-prices-are-surging-west-african-countries-should-seize-the-moment-to-negotiate-a-better-deal-for-farmers-214305

  • Laying foundation for bountiful harvest in Benue 

    Laying foundation for bountiful harvest in Benue 

    By Bridget Ikyado

    When on May 29, Reverend Fr Hyacinth Alia took the oath of office as Governor of Benue State, he vowed to run a robust administration that would massively transform the state, ensure equity and development. He also vowed to provide a well secured environment for people to pursue their means of livelihood and attract investments for employment in all sectors. 

    In furtherance of this, the governor came into office with a clear 7-Point Agenda. These covered security, agriculture and rural development; commerce and industry; human capital and social development; infrastructure, environment, and Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and political and economic development.  

    “You were waiting for hope. Renewed Hope. And I want to assure you, Benue: Hope is here!,” he told the people at his inauguration.

    One hundred days after, the administration is making significant progress in transforming Benue State, and many observers have thumped up the steady progress the administration has made so far.

    The governor has not only embarked on projects to meet the infrastructure needs of the state, but also set up machinery to reform the civil service, tackle insecurity, and support people displaced by years of conflicts. 

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    The actions of the governor indicate a season of renewed hope for Benue which, under previous administrations, was left with bastardised governance structure, collapsed economy, decayed infrastructure and a disillusioned civil service. 

    The first action Governor Alia took after assuming duty was to freeze all government bank accounts, to enable the administration determine the true financial status of the state. 

    He blocked financial loopholes and used Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) to pay salaries, wages and gratuities, without recourse to loans. It was a complete departure from the past practice when the previous administration borrowed money to pay salaries. 

    The governor has also commenced massive rehabilitation of the state secretariat and the assembly complex to provide a conducive atmosphere for workers and lawmakers to operate. 

    The governor has brought sanity to the civil service by weeding out ghost workers from the payroll, saving over N1.2 billion hitherto siphoned monthly from the state treasury. This has enabled the government to pay workers unfailingly, on the 25th of every month. 

    This has become a great relief to workers and enhanced their productivity. 

    It is pertinent to state that civil servants and pensioners in the state had endured years of non-payment of salaries and wages poor to his administration.

    In line with his pledge, the governor has since commenced the construction of affordable houses for low-income earners. A total 100 housing units are being constructed in Makurdi to boost access to affordable houses for low-income earners.

    Within the first 100 days in office, Alia has also begun the training and empowerment of 5,000 women to raise their skills to strengthening the local economy, take families out of poverty and create generational wealth and self-sufficiency.

    Similarly, the administration has selected 10,000 Benue youths to receive six months free training on ICT to enable them function optimally in the digital world and become dependent on their digital skills for survival. 

    Following the removal of fuel subsidy and the attendant hardship on the people, the administration has efficiently utilised the N2 billion it received from the federal government to provide palliatives. 

    Out of the amount, quite a chunk of market women are to receive N50,000 each to enhance their businesses. 

    It will also be used to pay the examination fees for final year secondary school students in public schools sitting for the West African Senior School Certificate Examination (WASSCE) and National Examination Council (NECO) examination. 

    This gesture will no doubt reduce the financial burden on parents, and encourage the students to pursue their studies without distraction. 

    Similarly, the governor has ordered the procurement of 100 buses for Benue Links, the state owned transport company to provide affordable transportation to the public. The government has also purchased and distributed rice to indigent households across the state.

    On infrastructure, the administration has commenced rehabilitation of 16 roads in the state and reactivated street lights in Makurdi to enhance security. 

    In the area of agriculture, the government had ensured prompt distribution of assorted subsidised fertilizer to farmers, to ensure bountiful harvest and reduce farming cost. He also ordered the removal of illegal checkpoints which have been contributing to price hikes in markets.

    One of the major problems he inherited from the previous administration was the huge number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) who were neglected in spite of their pitiable condition. 

    The first step taken by the governor was to enhance access to emergency and health care for the IDPs through the provision of food, nutritional supplements, and improved access to portable water and sanitation services.

    Governor Hyacinth Alia has already put in place framework for the resettlement, reintegration and rehabilitation of the IDPs, to rebuild their lives and contribute to economic and political development of the state. The programme will be driven with the support of donor agencies. 

    The institution of Benue State International Cooperation and Development Coordinating Unit will ensure deployment of resources and expertise in a timely, efficient and accountable manner to fast track the transformation of the state. 

    The Alia administration has lived up to its billing as it pursues looters of government property, leading to the recovery of vehicles, tens of hectares of land and numerous landed property from officials of the immediate past administration. 

    All these and more are the foundation for Benue’s growth and transformation laid by the governor and on which his administration has been pursuing its renewed hope agenda. 

    So far, the governor’s able lieutenants are more emboldened by his openness and commitment to service and have been contributing to the transformation agenda. 

    Certainly, the first 100 days of the administration of Governor Hyacinth Alia have sowed infinite seeds for the state to reap. With patience, the harvest will be bountiful.

    • Ikyado is Principal Special Assistant, Media & Publicity/Strategic Communications to the Governor of Benue State.

  • Pathway to poverty eradication

    Pathway to poverty eradication

    By Festus Tokunbo

    President Bola Tinubu’s government unveiled its eight-point economic agenda during the first Federal Executive council meeting in August. In his economic blueprint, President Tinubu highlighted the ambitious target of removing over 100 million Nigerians out of poverty. Achieving this kind of ambitious goal requires strong institutions and policies. China successfully removed about 800 million people out of poverty within 30 years.

    When Buhari became president in 2015, the World Bank estimated there were 89 million Nigerians below the poverty line. When President Buhari completed his presidential tenure in 2023, the number of Nigerians below the poverty lines had increased to 135 million. President Buhari’s wrongheaded macroeconomic policies created about 40 million people in poverty within eight years. The failure of President Buhari’s administration was a macroeconomic failure.

    From the multidimensional poverty index study on Nigeria, it can technically be argued that the leading cause of poverty in Nigeria is monetary poverty. Monetary poverty is a direct consequence of currency crisis which is often caused by macroeconomic misalignment. So, the most effective tool to eradicate poverty in Nigeria is by consistently maintaining macroeconomic stability, which depends on promoting policies that de-dollarize the Nigerian economy.

    President Tinubu started well by implementing some economic reform policies such as the Nigerian electricity bill 2023, subsidy eradication policy and exchange-rate unification policy. But the implementation of a subsidy policy with a floating exchange rate regime has weakened the socioeconomic variables. The floating exchange rate regime has caused about 50% depreciation of the Nigerian currency to other basket of currencies and will impact the monetary poverty index in the country.

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    Addressing the poverty index in Nigeria depends so much on the macroeconomic alignment, which depends on policy coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the CBN. Basically, the failures of the President Buhari’s government are macroeconomic failures. The Ministry of Finance could not create sustainable fiscal policy regimes that improve government revenue to finance its budget. Nigeria resorted to international borrowing to finance the government budget which led to the country spending over 77% of its revenue on debt servicing. The failures of the Ministry of Finance and the CBN during President Buhari’s regime destabilized the economic and social economic variables and increased the poverty index in Nigeria.

    The success or failures of President Tinubu’s government would be principally determined by the Ministry of Finance and CBN. The CBN in the first three months of Tinubu’s government implemented wrongheaded monetary policies that led to over 50% depreciation of the currency against the dollar. This is already creating socio-economic crisis within the country. The exchange-rate has a direct influence on the consumer-price-index because Nigeria is primarily an import-based society. The smartest way to stabilise the price-level is adopting a pegged exchange-rate regime and allocate dollar supplies to the essential services and goods that are critical to Nigerian macroeconomic stability. Nigeria will not be able to generate adequate foreign currencies to supply the currency market. That’s why CBN must always promote policies to de-dollarize the Nigerian economy and stabilize the macroeconomic variables.  The CBN must resume the policy of allocating forex to importers for fuel importation to stabilize the petroleum price. The CBN also need to resume forex allocation to commercial banks with strict regulation and control to ensure transparency in the banking sectors.

    The permanent and sustainable solution to currency instability in Nigeria is local production of goods and services which will reduce the dependence on foreign goods for consumption. The Nigerian Electricity Bill 2023 will stabilise electricity production in Nigeria in the next five years, which will eventually stimulate local production, reduce importation, cause appreciation of the Nigerian currency and stabilise the macroeconomic variables.

    The CBN must revisit the Yuen/Naira currency swap that was started by the former Minister of Finance Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala meant to de-dollarize the economy, strengthen the currency and improve the Nigerians purchasing power. The government should also consider currency swaps with its top trading partners like India. The Nigerian government should facilitate its registration with BRICS to decentralise the Nigerian economy from dollar hegemony that’s destabilising the economic and socioeconomic variables.  

    The Ministry of Finance is crucial to addressing the poverty-index in Nigeria. It is therefore crucial that the finance department promote policies that improve the Internally-Generated-Revenue and engage in sustainable loan regimes. In the modern economy, governments both in developed and developing countries borrow to finance government budgets and stimulate growth. The advanced countries engage in sustainable borrowing to stimulate economic growth, but the low-income countries borrow mostly for consumption.

    During the administration of President Buhari, there were two basic loan regimes to Nigeria; there was the Western loan-regime and the Chinese loan-regime. While the Chinese loans regime were invested on capital projects like the construction of the Lekki Deep Sea Port, the interstate train system that connected the Nigerian major cities and rehabilitation of the airports, the Western loans from IMF and the World Bank were basically invested on recurrent expenditure. From the development perspective, the Chinese loans were more sustainable loans than the Western loans because the capital projects improved Nigerian Internally-Generated-Revenue that stabilised the fiscal space.

    The IMF and World Bank loans are also conditioned on market conditionalities that strengthen dollarization of the economy and destabilise the macroeconomic variables of the borrowing countries. The Ministry of Finance must critically review the Nigerian borrowing regime. The government should always engage in sustainable borrowing with less market’s conditionality. 

    The Nigerian foreign policy is among the weakest in Sub-Saharan Africa, despite being the largest population and the biggest economy in the continent. The succeeding government in Nigeria has failed to leverage on the Nigerian economic potentials to create a strong foreign policy that will improve its economic development. But, strong foreign policy is paramount to achieving economic and sustainable development. The UN Vienna Convention of 1963 on consular and diplomatic relations promotes the principle of reciprocity in states’ relations. Most developed and developing countries don’t reflect the principles of reciprocity in their bilateral relations with Nigeria. In 2022, I had a three-month research internship at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Lagos. This experience made me discover the weaknesses in the Nigerian Foreign policy. The institute does organise a monthly ambassadorial forum with countries to discuss bilateral relations, represented by their Ambassador in Nigeria. During the Nigeria/Trinidad & Tobago Ambassadorial forum, the Trinidad and Tobago Ambassador to Nigeria made a brilliant presentation to the audience about the need to strengthen the economic, social, trade and tourism relations between both countries. During the questions and answers sessions, I asked the ambassador why Trinidad and Tobago requires Nigerians students to make a financial security deposit in addition to tuition-fees deposit, before they are issued a visa to study in Trinidad & Tobago. This is despite the fact that Nigeria has a flexible visa regime for the country. The ambassador confirmed that asking Nigerian students to pay security deposit in addition to tuition deposit is not proper and that he had been making an effort with the Trinidad Ministry of Foreign Affairs to review this policy. This is just a case of many cases of exploitation of the Nigerian economy by many countries. The new Minister of Foreign Affairs recalled all Nigerian ambassadors on resumption of office in September. The minister should also review the Nigerian bilateral relations with every country in the world, both the Western, Asian, Caribbean and African countries. This is because bilateral relations with most countries currently are not based on the principle of reciprocity. This is global imperialism; every country is taking advantage of the country as a result of weak foreign policies which in turn hurts the socioeconomic development.

    • Tokunbo writes from Nottingham Trent University.

  • Democracy’s survival: Africa’s path forward

    Democracy’s survival: Africa’s path forward

    By Augustina Alegbe

    SIR: The recent wave of coup attempts and political instability in Africa serves as a testament to the erosion of democratic principles and institutions in Africa. If you walk down the streets of Nigeria or any other African nation, and ask the average person what democracy means, they would likely respond, government by the people, of the people, and for the people. It is a phrase I believe, that echoes the ideals of democracy worldwide.

    However, decades after democratization began in Africa in the 90s, democratic consolidation which implies the strengthening and deepening of democratic principles and institutions remains elusive.

    Democracy for many, represents not just a political system, but stands as a vision of hope for a better future. This is because it promises responsive governance, economic growth and development, and the protection of human rights. However, the continent’s journey to democracy has been fraught with challenges, as is evident given the recent coups in Niger and Gabon.

    One thing that is evident amongst the nations that have recently experienced military takeover is that they are all French colonies. Whereas the rising level of insecurity, declining economic growth and the perception of the continuous hold of colonial powers over their former colonies led to the military takeover in Niger, Gabon has been run as a family business, a dynasty, with almost a 56-year rule, from Omar Bongo 1967 to Ali Bingo 2023.

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    To uphold what democracy means for the common man, amongst others, the rule of law needs to be upheld meaning everyone is subject to the law, independence of the judiciary system, free and fair elections ensuring the representation of the electorates in elections, and also government accountability and transparency. By ensuring that these things are adhered to, democratic institutions will be strengthened, thereby promoting good governance.

    Democracies are no dynasties.Addressing the factors that contribute to political instability such as ethnic fractionalization, economic inequality and corruption which has eaten deep into the fabric of our societies is essential for curbing military interventions. Therefore, by promoting inclusive government, economic development and growth, social unity even in diversity, anti-corruption practices, the grievances that contribute to the emergence of political instability and coups can be curtailed.

    The consolidation of democracy in African nations still has a long way to go. African leaders should realize that they are not elected to satisfy their personal needs and to amass wealth for their personal gains; they are rather meant to lead, serve and ensure the progress of all. They are meant to help strengthen and unite the citizens and not further divide, or create grievances that would lead to military interventions and coups.

    • Augustina Alegbe. Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan,  

  • Blues For Mohbad II

    Blues For Mohbad II

    Fela Anikulapo-Kuti had close to thirty years on stage before passing on at the height of his prolific

    creative career. He left behind the legacy of Afrobeat, a distinctive sound which reverberated round

    the world and drew considerable attention to the music scene in Nigeria. Afrobeat was the logical

    successor to highlife but as earlier mentioned apart from the Kutis, not many musicians had the

    courage to push Afrobeat forward until many years after Fela left the scene. Then, artists, mostly too

    young to have had first hand experience of prime Fela began to experiment with sounds which were

    arranged to form a new genre now called Afrobeats.

    At the turn of this century the centre of Nigeria’s music scene seemed to have swung quite decisively

    to Ajegunle, a sprawling, much crowded, multi ethnic and multi cultural suburb of Lagos. Artistes like

    Fryo and Daddy Showkey began to produce what can be described as dance music with the music

    providing a background to dances such as galala, konto and azonto. This marked a departure from

    Afrobeat and the jazz infused music of Lagbaja who performed from behind the anonymity provided

    by cloth masks. It is interesting to note that the existing streams of music at that time hardly

    overlapped each other as the crowds which were attracted to the Motherland, venue of Lagbaja’s

    shows would not have given any thought to paying a visit to Ajegunle to catch a Fryo show and vice

    versa.

    The era of the ascendancy of the thumping rhythm of music coming out of Ajegunle did not last long

    however before musicians like 2face Idibia and P-square came on the scene to lay the foundation for

    Afrobeats. This foundation was rapidly built upon by D’banj and spectacularly by Olu Maintain

    whose monster hit Yahoozee took the country and the rest of the world by storm. Yahoozee, in spite

    of its controversial title which appeared to eulogise advanced fee fraud dubbed 419 had everyone

    including the then USA Secretary of state, the usually unflappable Colin Powell on their feet. At this

    time Nigerian popular music appeared to be in a state of flux as acts such as 9ice and even Weird MC

    dazzled for a while before retreating into the background as it were. However, this was only prelude

    to the emergence of full blown Afrobeats with Davido, WizKid and Burna boy in the vanguard of a

    music revolution which quickly crossed the boundaries of Nigeria and became a global phenomenon

    in a way that even Fela’s music was not able to do. Colin Powell moved his distinguished body to

    Yahoozee but this was a low key performance compared to the multitude of recognised celebrities

    and world leaders who crowded dance floors everywhere you turned your attention to, to bugga

    enthusiastically with Kizz Daniel. Now, there is no corner of the world into which Afrobeats has not

    penetrated. It’s foremost exponents are being invited to play in all sorts of venues all around the

    world and especially at most iconic sporting events. The closing ceremony at the football World Cup

    in Qatar was graced by Davido whilst the half-time entertainment at the American version of the

    World Cup, the Super bowl was provided by the Afrobeats (Nigerian) trio of Burna boy, Rema and

    Tems. Even the House of Windsor was not left out of the rush as Tiwa Savage was one of the stand

    out performers at the the long awaited coronation of King Charles III of England, signifying the

    breaching of the formidable walls of conservatism by music made in Nigeria by Nigerians.

    I am not quite sure why Afrobeats has swept the world as most assuredly it has done over the last

    five years and I am not sure that anyone has bothered to study this phenomenon in any systematic

    manner. However, it is safe to surmise that there is a complex mesh of reasons for the rise and rise of

    Afrobeats.

    Read Also: Fans contributed to MohBad’s tragic death, says Ruger

    Highlife, like Afrobeat after it, was a polyphonic creation which captured the rhythms of musical

    styles from all over the world. But, the extent of the mixing involved in these genre is nothing

    compared with what you find in Afrobeats. To the mixture which birthed highlife and Afrobeat we

    can add a whole lot of rhythms including indigenous music from many sources; reggae, hip-hop, rap,

    even hard rock, have all found space within Afrobeats. This being the case, virtually everyone is able

    to find some form of reference and association witchin Afrobeats. It is not unlikely that even more

    people will be drawn into the enchanted circle of Afrobeats as it develops further along the path of

    world domination of popular music.

    At the time that Afrobeats began its ascendancy on the global music scene, there was a large,

    Nigerian dominated African Diaspora waiting to receive it. Many of them were second generation

    migrants who had been exposed to African music within their domestic space and were therefore

    oriented towards Africa as far as their musical tastes were concerned. They quickly jumped on the

    Afrobeats band wagon as soon as it rolled into town. The long established African Diaspora in the

    Americas, the Caribbean and Europe were not tardy about coming on board and it appeared that

    there was a readymade audience for Afrobeats all over the world so that there was no problem with

    penetrating the market as soon as the product became available.

    A very small but extremely influential group that enhanced the popularity of Afrobeats were

    members of the global musical elite. Musicians such as Beyoncé, Madonna, Ed Sheeran, Justin

    Bieber, Dred and Drake who have either released Afrobeats themed records or have collaborated

    with Afrobeats stars like WizKid, Tems, Shatter Wale and others to popularize both Afrobeats as well

    as the respective artistes globally thereby strengthening all the brands involved with these

    collaborative efforts.

    In those long gone days of analogue transactions, you had to walk into a shop and go through the

    physical transaction of buying a record. Now you can buy your music at the touch of a screen. This

    has made it easy for purchases to be made and tracked in real time. We know that Afrobeats musical

    tracks are setting records in terms of sales in different parts of the world. The progress or otherwise

    of the sales performance of records are now monitored in a way that it could not be done in the days

    of highlife when in addition, all sales were strictly local. Today all the music streamed on Spotify,

    Boom and other streaming services is paid for in foreign currency so that the leading exponents of

    Afrobeats became instant multi millionaires, not in the local currency but in American dollars. This

    has lifted them out of the local gig scene and catapulted them onto the most iconic stages of the

    world. These music venues are being packed out by crowds which do not seem to get enough of the

    musical offerings of their heroes and the financial fallout from this is simply fabulous. These stars are

    not only rich but are famous, well beyond the fifteen minutes of fame allotted to the modern human

    beings by Andy Warhol. Being an Afrobeats star has therefore become a massive deal and the path

    to all that fame and fortune is littered by the broken and torn bodies of those who failed to make the

    grade.

    Mohbad was definitely not one of those who failed to make the grade as the torrential outpour of

    grief which followed his demise testifies to, so eloquently. He did not get to perform at the 02 arena

    and no makeshift stage was erected for any performance at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as was

    the case with WizKid but given the trajectory of his all too brief career, such performances were

    going to be a feature of his career had he lived. He had demonstrated enough talent in every aspect

    of stage craft to suggest that he was destined for the top and a seat with the big boys had he lived.

    This is why he was mourned so passionately with candle light parades in his honour in places all over

    the world, in places where he had never been but where his musical foot prints have left indelible

    prints. To borrow the words of Shakespeare, nothing became him in life as in the leaving of it but it

    has to be said that it was the things he did in life that led to his glorification in death. People from all

    over the world had been touched by the power of his musical genius and wanted more of it.

    Unfortunately, there can’t be anything more from Mohbad.

    There have been so many angles to the life of Mohbad that his passing is shrouded in mystery,

    mystery which could not be resolved after his internment and has led to the exhumation of his body

    in an attempt to answer a plethora of questions to be asked by a post-mortem examination, the

    results of which are awaited with bated breath, especially by the multitude of people who are

    convinced beyond any reasonable doubt that there is more than meets the eye in the matter of

    Mohbad’s sudden death. It has not been difficult for me to resist the urge to add my own speculation

    to what is already on ground.

    By dying at twenty-seven, Mohbad has been enrolled in a unique club of artistes who share the

    unfortunate distinction of dying at that age. Another distinction shared by the people in this club is

    their undoubted musical genius. The first and perhaps the most intriguing member of the club is

    Robert Johnson, an itinerant blues guitarist who wowed audiences principally in the Mississippi delta

    in the nineteen thirties. His greatest claim to fame however resides in the story told about him to the

    effect that he sold his soul to the Devil to acquire his virtuosity on the guitar. An aspect of this story

    which I find most intriguing is the insistence that this transaction took place at a crossroads, the

    residence of no less a presence than Esu Larooye, one of the gods associated with creativity in the

    Yoruba pantheon of gods. Johnson was Afro-American and this fits very nicely into this narrative.

    Johnson also loved his guitar, whiskey and married women with great passion and the expressed

    suspicion is that he was poisoned by a jealous husband. As no post-mortem was carried out on his

    body, this suspicion has never been confirmed and the answer has been interred with him in a grave

    the whereabouts of which can only be guessed at.

    No such fancies have been associated with other members of this club but they are nevertheless still

    eminently worthy of mention. Artistes, especially those at the very top live on the edge where there

    is very little space for other people. They may be surrounded by a retinue of hired help but are

    forced into loneliness which colours their everyday existence. Many of them are haunted by their

    extravagant musical gifts with which they can hardly cope. They then turn to alcohol, drugs and sex

    to damp down the fires burning inside them. In doing so, they leave themselves open to the charge

    of recklessness and personal endangerment which may alienate them from a lot of other people.

    Jimi Hendrix, probably the greatest rock and electric guitarist that ever lived died at twenty-seven. So

    did Janis Joplin, one of the most famous female vocalists of all time and definitely the best of her

    generation. Another illustrious member of this club was Amy Whitehouse, another extravagantly

    talented singer who left far too early in her career. One of the outstanding groups in an era of iconic

    groups was the Rolling Stones. It was put together by the multi-talented Brian Jones whose

    dissonance led to his expulsion from the Rolling Stones which he had founded and drowned in his

    own swimming pool aged only twenty-seven. Other members of the band including Mick Jagger

    who for good measure welcomed his eighth child at the age of seventy-nine are still rocking and

    rolling on stage.

    Like all those talented musicians, Mohbad has gone the way of all flesh way too early. The cause of

    his death is yet unknown but his many admirers can be consoled by the body of work which he left

    behind as evidence of his having been here and done something remarkable with the little time at

    his disposal.

  • Abiodun: Symphonic electoral victory at tribunal

    Abiodun: Symphonic electoral victory at tribunal

    • By Femi Ogbonnikan

    After much anxiety and waiting, the Ogun State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal recently gave its verdict. It upheld and also revalidated the re-election of Prince Dapo Abiodun as the duly elected governor of the Gateway state in the March 18, 2023 gubernatorial poll.

    In the suit No. EPT/OG/GOV/03/2023, Oladipupo Adebutu (1st petitioner) and Peoples Democratic Party (2nd petitioner) have dragged the Independent National Electoral Commission (1st respondent), Prince Dapo Abiodun (2nd respondent) and the All Progressives Congress (3rd respondent) to the Ogun State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal to challenge the declaration of Prince Dapo Abiodun as Governor for the second term in office in the Saturday, March 18, 2023.

    It was an epic battle of the titans, featuring legal giants representing different parties to the matter.

    Representing  the 1st petitioner (Adebutu) hires Chief Goddy Uche (SAN) and Mr Olumuyiwa Obanawa, while the 2nd petitioner (PDP) engages Dr Oladimeji Hassan-Balogun, Mrs Chinasa Amaechi and Mr Mike Uche.

    Also, the 1st respondent (INEC) is represented by Mr Abiodun Owonikoko (SAN), Dr Peter Remi Olatubora (SAN) and Mrs Oluwashola Keshinro, while the second respondent (Abiodun) is represented by Chief Wole Olanipekun (SAN); Prof Taiwo Osipitan (SAN); Mrs Titilola Akinlawon (SAN); and Dr Bode Olanipekun (SAN); while Dr Onyechi Ikpeazu (SAN); Mr Tayo Oyetibo (SAN); Otunba Kunle Kalejaiye (SAN); and Dr Muiz Banire (SAN) stand in for the third respondent (APC).

    In the unanimous decision of the three-man panel, Justices H.N Kuzana, J.B Egele and Sanusi Shehu, the tribunal averred that the petition brought by the PDP governorship candidate, Oladipupo Adebutu and his party (PDP) have failed to prove any of the grounds of the Petition and thus, are not entitled to any of the reliefs sought. The petition fails and is dismissed. The return of Governor Abiodun was affirmed.

    On account of the petition, the court goes further to prove that the grounds of the objection are which “that some paragraphs of the petition are vague, nebulous, indiscernible, and imprecise. INEC relies on the legal authorities which state litigation is not a game of chess and litigants must come with their cards facing up”.

    The Court recapped that Chief Wole Olanipekun’s arguments which are to the effect that a petition tribunal lacks jurisdiction over a candidate’s Form EC9 which is a form that is utilised at the pre-election stage only to be attacked in pre-election matters for which petitions have no locus (citing Alhassan v Ishaku).

    Also, the court declares that factors relating to disqualification are in Section 182 of the Constitution. Then, the court goes over the facts in the petition relating to Ground C which are that the 2nd respondent presented a forged and also the 2nd respondent was arrested sometime in 1986.

    The Court goes over to Section 285 (14) of the Constitution which defines a pre-election matter. The court relies on a decided authority which is that “where a candidate’s emergence is challenged on the ground of false information in Form EC9, it is a pre-election matter for determination before a High Court”. That tribunals have no jurisdiction over such complaints. That the court finds that the issue of arrest is not a disqualification issue and that petitioners have even conceded that point by not responding to the 2nd respondent’s arguments in that regard. The court finds that Ground C is incompetent and it then concludes that Grounds A, B and C of the petition-which are all the grounds of the petition-are incompetent while the Court finds that the paragraphs attacked are vague and are accordingly struck out.

    “All the grounds of the objection are struck out for being incompetent

    Paragraphs of the Reply to the 3rd Respondent’s Reply struck out for introducing fresh issues.

    Witness depositions of the so-called subpoenaed witnesses (INEC ad-hoc officials) which were served personally on those witnesses thrown out for being filed outside the deadline for filing a petition.

    Video purporting to show corrupt practices also rejected for being unpleaded and for being hearsay evidence since the person purporting to tender it did not make the video”, said the court.

    Among its resolutions, the tribunal finds that the video was not pleaded. That the general assertions in the pleadings that videos will be tendered does not cover the specific videos tendered by PW 91.

    The tribunal finds that the video is heresy evidence because the person who tendered it was not a worker in Channels or Television Continental (TVC) and could not speak to the human inputs that created the video, which are the specific points that a certificate of compliance is required to state

    The objection succeeded and the video was rejected in evidence.

    Besides, the court holds that petitioners have a duty to state the results correctly. That in this case, Petitioners inserted the word “wrongly” in the Petition to describe the return made by INEC.

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    The court cited Ikpeazu v. Otti and other cases, in which it was held that a Petitioner MUST state the person declared to have won an election, which Petitioners did not do in this case

    Petitioners refused to acknowledge the candidate returned in this election and by using the word “wrongly” is saying that 2nd Respondent was not actually returned, yet challenging the election.

    It will be recalled that the petitioner, Adebutu, in his petition, had alleged disruption of the election by hoodlums suspected to be political thugs in over 99 polling units, disenfranchisement of over 40,000 voters who could not participate in the March 18, 2023 governorship poll as grounds for seeking his declaration as the winner of the election. To that effect, he had called voters and party agents from Sagamu, Ikenne, Odogbolu, Remo North, Ogun Waterside, Ijebu-Ode, Abeokuta South, Abeokuta North, Ado-Odo/Ota, Imeko-Afon and other local governments as witnesses to prove that there were disruptions in different polling units across the State.

    Furthermore, the petitioner made a plethora of frivolous accusations of the Electoral Act and corrupt practices perpetrated during the election, etc. The lead counsel to the petitioner, Goddy Uche (SAN) had equally urged the Tribunal to admit all the gamut of documents tendered as evidence against Abiodun as exhibits.

    These included INEC forms; BVAS reports; forms ECAs; voters’ registers and printed IREV results.  This is in addition to a 99-page schedule of documents already served on the first, second, and third respondents respectively.

    In fact, it’s indeed a whole range of issues compiled to substantiate the petitioner’s desire to upturn the hard-won victory of Governor Abiodun.

    Ogun is one of the states in Nigeria where there is always an intriguing but continuous play of adversarial power-politics. Adebutu had introduced a novelty in the definition of his own home-grown politics. He introduced credit cards as inducements for vote-buying, a criminal offence that runs foul of the Electoral Act. His boys were caught in the act as they were apprehended on the governorship election day, March 18, 2023 across the state with verve credit cards already pre-loaded with N10,000 for onward distribution.

    He (Adebutu) was, thus, charged for vote-buying, disruption of the electoral process, criminal conspiracy, money laundering, and other sundry allegations of manipulation at the tribunal.

    For the fear of the unknown, Adebutu is currently on self-exile in an undisclosed location abroad to escape the long arms of the law.

    While his lead counsel, Uche fiercely struggled to defend his case before he eventually succumbed to the overwhelming evidence of the electoral malfeasances allegedly committed during the governorship election, declaring that “he was handicapped”.

    One of the damning testimonies was made by an official of Zenith Bank Plc, Mrs Celestina Appeal, Head of Card Services who presented evidence of 200,000 pre-loaded ATM cards meant for vote-buying to the tribunal. The startling revelation of the underhand deal followed an earlier submission of two letters written by counsel to the Governor, Prof Taiwo Osipitan (SAN) to Zenith Bank in February, seeking clarification on how Adebutu opened a special account for the purpose of his action with the bank, as well as the request for the issuance of 200,000 pre-loaded Automated Teller Machine (ATM) cards containing N10,000 each, some days away before the Saturday, March 18, 2023 governorship election.

    While put under cross-examination, not only did Mrs Appeal present the Certified True Copy (CTC) of a letter written to Zenith Bank by Oladipupo Adebutu dated 27th February 2023, two days after the Presidential election which the PDP lost, requesting to open an account for the production of 200,000ATM verve cards, containing N10,000 each, totalling N2 billion, but also tendered the record of delivery of, and collection of the prepaid ATM cards to Adebutu, and the sample of the card, including the statement of account opened in the name of Oladipupo Adebutu, all indicating inflow and outflow of the account from February to May 2023 and certificate of compliance.

    At any rate, Adebutu was only merely running away from his own shadow. As a drowning man who desperately needed a straw to hold on to, the PDP governorship candidate, knowing fully well that he had no route to escape, having been charged to court, raising a counter-accusation of vote-buying against the APC and the governor without any verifiable evidence to substantiate through claims.

    But, unfortunately, the machination couldn’t stand the test of time. It fell with a loud thud, following the police investigation into the matter.

    In the final analysis, the report presented before the tribunal expressly stated that the allegation of vote-buying levelled against the APC and the governor by the PDP was not substantiated.

    The report of the findings read in part.

    “That contrary to the claims of some of the witnesses brought forward by the PDP, Daniel Obadamilare, Adesina Sakiru, Dauda Kamil, and Ogunleye Francis, their claims of over-voting cannot be substantiated as they were unable to mention the Point Of Sales (POS) agents that were alleged to have converted the cards to cash for them”.

    Then, the clincher followed.

    The tribunal sitting in Abeokuta summarily dismissed the case, declaring it as an afterthought on the ground that it was not part of the original petition filed against the respondents.

    However, despite all storms, the governor has come out victorious, having survived the underhand plots of political buccaneers. It’s indeed a symphonic victory at the tribunal. There have been seen and unseen hands of those playing God, while attempting to undermine the popular wishes at the Governorship election.

    Elated and optimistic as he was, the Governor, who spoke at a reception held at the Presidential Lodge, Abeokuta, on Saturday night, shortly after the reaffirmation of his electoral victory, dedicated his victory at the tribunal to God Almighty and the people of the Gateway state for their unalloyed support, while he pledged to rededicate himself towards serving them better the more.

    The 11 hour judgement, according to him, was unprecedented in the annals of the country given the length of hours spent to deliver the verdict. He, however, commended the three tribunal judges for not just ensuring justice, but doing so in a meticulous, diligent and transparent manner.

    “”We earned it. We deserved it. We won fair and square. You are all a testimony of our triumph, tenacity, resolve and determination.

    “I want to thank all the good people of Ogun State that voted me in and all other well-wishers for your prayers, good wishes and support throughout this period.

    “We were never in doubt that our hard-earned victory will be affirmed as we placed our trust in God, having worked the hardest campaign in every nook and cranny of Ogun State”, Abiodun averred, while addressing a mammoth crowd.

    • Ogbonnikan wrote from Abeokuta, Ogun State
  • Why did the West get Russia so wrong?

    Why did the West get Russia so wrong?

    • By Timothy Ash

    Why did the West got Russia so wrong – and could the same mistake be made on China?

    It is still striking in my mind how so much of the Western political, business, and broader society got Russia so wrong, for so long. I think it is a question which is important to ask, and better understand. Important I think because the same biases in coverage and understanding of Russia might still be there, and causing us still to misread and miscalculate when it comes to Russia. But also we might also be making similar mistakes when we come to understanding and assessing similar strategic challenges, for example, on China.

    As someone who long argued as to the threat posed by Russia – along with my colleagues on the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House – the alarm bells should already have been ringing as early as Putin’s Munich Security Council speech in 2007, then his invasion of Georgia in 2008. Surely the smell of the coffee brewing should have been pungent by the time of his annexation of Crimea in April 2014, then the clear cut Russian military intervention in Donbas later in 2014. WMD were even used on the soil of a NATO member – twice with Litvinenko and then again with Skyrpal. This was even not enough of a warning for some. Putin helped us even further by writing an essay in mid 2021 giving Russian troops the justification for the invasion of Ukraine, which should have literally spelled it out to all what was coming. Biden, the US government and UK government then gave us all a “read my lips moment” later in 2021 that the invasion was coming, with a high probability. They even provided the Intel with photos and sat imagery. But people chose still to ignore the writing on the wall – in the essay at least, from Putin

    Why?

    I put it down to a number of reasons:

    First, too many people were just too invested in Russia. In trading financial markets its a must do discipline to set oneself stop losses: to accept when you might be wrong, and to set and keep to stop losses. It’s an opportunity to re-assess, take a wrong call on the chin, to exit, with a loss and a tail between one’s legs, but to assure against much bigger losses in the future. Too few Western businesses in Russia set or abided by stop losses. They had no exit strategy if things went wrong. I think too many businesses were just blinded by the scale of their exposure, that they talked themselves into a wishful thinking/rosy scenario, imaging that Putin was just like them, and would not risk the financial and economic costs of war. They were just wrong, very wrong. Many now whinge about their assets and exposure in Russia – assuming there should be some sympathy from Western governments to kind of help them negotiate an exit – trade off against frozen Russian assets – to compensate them for their own bad calls. They failed to set or abide by the stop in Russia – now they must take the loss.

    Read Also: West must realize it’s already at war with Russia

    Second, much of the info narrative around Russia was just plain wrong. But why? I would argue that that same business community invested in Russia, then lobbied and pushed the same narrative in the public domain that Putin would not do the unthinkable. They sought to play down the risks – perhaps to justify to others higher up their own business food chains that they should remain invested in Russia. They could not stomach cutting, early, and running, and taking losses when they could.

    Some of this was also a group think echo chamber. But often it was the same Western business lobby which lobbied hard in favour of Russian interests and against Russia sanctions. It’s almost as though some were in cahoots. The worry is perhaps some were.

    Third, now you could argue, diplomatically, that the above business lobby had been captured. Others might say that this was all an intelligence operation by the Russian state to buy Western interests, in business, the media, politics, academia, even culture and sports, and then to present a certain rose tinted view of the Putin regime. Corruption? Perhaps, some were happy to take Putin’s forty pieces of silver? Espionage, yes very likely. Indeed, a hugely successful Russian influence and corruption operation waged over many years. To set the stage for the invasion which was likely planned long in advance.

    We should though still ask ourselves how far our institutions were captured by the Russian state, and whether many remain captured? If Russian influence remains we should be acting to clean up captured institutions. Are we? I don’t think so. We are not even asking the question.

    Fourth, business relied significantly on bank research advising on Russia investments. But Russian state owned banks dominated the info space there having invested heavily in their research capability. With hindsight was that all part of a Russian intel operation? Possible, even likely some might argue. Even the international banks which covered Russia typically had Russian analysts covering the country – often Moscow based. Again it’s hard not to see the bulk of this narrative on Russia, and Ukraine (most banks gave their Ukraine view from Moscow), having a very Russian, or worse even Kremlin, narrative.

    Fifth, perhaps it was all just an honest wrong call – it happens in life to all of us. Many of the above business interests thought that Putin thought like them, and many thought they had great lines into Russian political circles, many even in the Kremlin. Many told me before the full scale invasion, that “ their contacts in the Kremlin had told them there would be no invasion”.

    Well, yes, those Kremlin contacts would have said that would n’t they even if they had known. But many likely were as much in the dark in reality as the Western business interests invested in Russia. The question though is in very centralised political regimes like Russia, how can Western business really know what is going on? Therein the same could now be said of China. So it’s a question of how Western business gets its information, and how accurate that can be in typically secretive authoritarian regimes.

    The reality is that Putin did not think like Western business leaders. Business and the economy was a means to an end – the end was the invasion and subjugation of Ukraine, and the recreation of Russian great power status and empire. It’s an imperialist ambition – unfortunately shared by many Russians. Putin had made the calculation that the time to invade Ukraine was February 2022, as economic buffers (put in place long in advance) had been built against potential Western economic sanctions. And he was willing to take the economic consequences, and Western business operations in Russia were expendable, actually to be stolen and seized as the war has progressed.

    Notable here again, back in 2015 I argued that Putin had created “Fortress Russia” economic policy settings because he was planning for future conflict with the West. Russia had deleveraged, cut debt, built $600bn+ in FX reserves, and set fiscal and monetary policy much tighter than macro indicators should have suggested for a country with peaceful intent.

    Again the writing was there for those that chose to look. The problem is too many did not.

    So have we thoroughly investigated why the West got this all wrong – no. Is all this being swept under the carpet? Yes, perhaps some in power or business don’t want the embarrassment and exposure.

    Worryingly though if Russia has captured key Western interests, they likely remain captive, and active. Are we doing anything to expose and root these out to stop their continuing influence on at least the public narrative? Not really.

    And are the same mistakes possible when it comes to China – absolutely. Western business interests are similarly invested up to the hilt, and appear active in lobbying to remain engaged and invested. Are they asking the right questions, are they able to table the right questions to the right people? Unlikely. Can they “be in the know”? Also unlikely. I hope for their own sakes that they have set stop losses and could still exit if need be.

    Interestingly, I now see those very same “Fortress China” economic policy settings as we saw in Russia from 2015 onwards – deleveraging, building FX buffers, running much tighter fiscal and monetary policies, sacrificing growth for a stronger balance sheet to defend against future tensions with the West. The warning signs are there.

    • This article was first published in www.kyivpost.com