The Nation Newspaper

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  • Still riding on the currency of hope

    Still riding on the currency of hope

    By Ronke Bello

    Between the last editions of my articles “Currency Of Hope” and now, a lot has occurred in the administrative space of our beloved nation-state Nigeria. There is absolutely no facet of governance that has not been affected by a new policy or ongoing reforms hopefully for better. After all the only hope in any reform lies in the expected better outcomes, speed in performance embedded in a constant and sustained engagement with the citizens.

    These led me back to pick up the document “Renewed Hope: Action Plan For A Better Nigeria” (2023). That was our campaign manifesto for the Tinubu Presidency.  It is a 75 page document that covers major areas of governance from National Security, The Economy to Agriculture, Digital Economy, Women Empowerment, Education, Sports Development, Aviation, Arts ,  Culture and Tourism ,Judicial Reforms, Foreign Policies and much more.

    In that well researched document lies the pact this administration made with the Nigerian people for the first four years and from whence many of these reforms are being introduced. I will encourage all managers of policies in this administration (whether they were part of the campaign or not) to have that document as a working tool on their tables as a guide for a clearer understanding of the pact, the journey and the hopeful destination. And these must be continually tracked, monitored and measured because it has automatically become the peoples’ scorecard of our performance in the next few years.

    Thus it is with great excitement that the nation recently noticed a drop in the alarming rising prices of foodstuff. Many reasons have been alluded to this development. Daniel Bwala, one of the president’s spokesperson said “The reason the food prices are crashing is because we have dealt a heavy blow to insecurity, hence farmers enthusiastically go to farm and do what they do best. “

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    While the well respected Waziri Adio,  the czar of Nigeria’s extractive industry in his recent article “The Savoury Fall in Food Prices” which should be read by all policy handlers in the agriculture industry writes “We need to fully understand the drivers of this positive trend, and ensure that we pay more serious, systematic and sustainable attention not just to food prices but also to the larger issue of food security.”

    As he noted, this fall in food prices didn’t go unnoticed by both local and the international media. This is not only an ongoing achievement but one that resonates with our pact with Nigerians in the Renewed Hope document on pages 26 to 29: “Agriculture; plant the right seed, feed the entire nation”. “We vow to help the farmer and his/her community in new and significant ways that will usher in a true and complete rebirth of the Nigerian agriculture.”

    Since food is only one  area of the essence of human life, Nigerians rightfully are hoping infact demanding for reduction of prices in other important areas especially  medicare because without mincing words,  medicines  is certainly out of the reach of most Nigerians! Though hope renewed, the ongoing promise made on Healthcare in pages 45-48 of our document that “Primary healthcare will remain the bedrock of our system. Deploying adequate infrastructure and Human Resources to address …all pressing issues of primary health care” is assured.

    Most recently, President Bola Tinubu had approved the employment of 774 National Health Fellows, a pivotal initiative led by the Federal Ministry of Health to foster sustained improvements within Nigeria’s healthcare system.

    On Youth Empowerment and Entrepreneurship, we recognize that a great and prosperous nation is hinged on having strong and prosperous youths that make up a huge percentage of our population. Our pact with Nigerians on pages 57 to 59 of our document states that “Building the future, from day one our administration will partner with the youths “. This has been continually fulfilled by the number of youths in government which is unprecedented in our democratic history thus far. The president went further by inaugurating National Youth Confab Committee where he tasked them by these words:  “Look at me in the face, tell me whatever you think is wrong and the way you want things done. We’ll try to implement all of it as long as it is for the prosperity of this country.” Indeed a statesman “whose eyes are on the next generation”!

    These are not to conclude that we are there yet; but we must be dealers of hope while working extra hard to bring our nation to that glorious height we all desire and can be proud of, that is why I agree with Rohini Nilekani who said “We cannot be mere consumers of good governance, we must be participants; we must be co-creators”.

    As we approach the half time of our first tenure we must keep marching forward deliberately with huge steps embedded in high performances, formidable information dissemination, needed support of the sub-nationals and the huge contributions of ideas and opinions from the citizens which we must develop capacity to absorb and reflect on. For these are the very foundations of a strong and prosperous nation.

    •Bello, Ph.D academic, policy analyst, publicist and author writes from Abuja.

  • Lagos and the menace of indiscriminate parking

    Lagos and the menace of indiscriminate parking

    • By Eniola Dabiri

    Lagos is a rapidly growing and bustling city where everyone daily focuses on varied pursuits. However, one significant issue that often gets overlooked is random and careless parking of vehicles. This problem impacts people’s daily activities in diverse ways. While this may seem like a minor inconvenience at first glance, its effects transcend the immediate frustration of finding a parking spot or the attendant’s gridlock.

    This seemingly unharmful issue weaves into the fabric of daily lives, subtly disrupting the equilibrium and affecting everything from emergency response times to business growth and the effective implementation of government policies.

    For instance, parking in an undesignated parking spot might seem harmless until the ripple effects begin to impact emergency response times (by causing delays), hinder business growth (by reducing accessibility), and complicate the implementation of government policies (by straining the limited available resources or complicating implementation).

    Indiscriminate parking comes with attendant harsh and depressing implications on commuters and pedestrian movements. Since roads have suddenly become excessively narrow as a result of vehicles that are parked on either side, the safety of commuters and pedestrians become seriously compromised.

    Many have lost their lives while jogging or walking along the road. No thanks to roadside parking! Consequently, many who would have loved to engage in walking for pleasure and fitness have to think twice before engaging in such a risky venture.

    No matter how much energy is put into courting foreign and local investments, the enabling environment must, first and foremost, be created before such investment can thrive. Traffic gridlock is, no doubt, bad for business. And roadside parking is partly responsible for most of the traffic gridlock in Lagos.

    There is, of course, also a huge implication for emergencies. Consider, for instance, a medical emergency where an ambulance, rushing an accident victim to the hospital, faces severe delays due to a gridlock caused by randomly parked vehicles. Such obstructions can exacerbate a patient’s condition. 

    This writer once watched a pregnant woman in labour rushed into the car by her desperate husband, hoping to quickly get her to the hospital. Sadly, this apparently simple task was complicated because of a few wrongly parked cars at the entrance of their house.

    Perhaps more saddening is the fact that illegal parking hampers the swift intervention of first responders during emergencies. For instance, it makes it tougher for firefighters and other first responders to navigate their way through locations of fire disasters. This often results in valuable time lost, and sometimes needless loss of lives and properties.

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    It is, thus, clear that indiscriminate parking can encumber the operations of emergency workers, and worsen health conditions. Interestingly, nobody pays attention to the deadly but superficially harmless act of random parking as a major hindrance to smooth emergency operations.

    Parking issues can significantly impact businesses, often in ways we might not immediately notice. In the business world, where every minute counts and first impressions matter most, even a supposedly innocuous parking problem can disrupt important meetings, cost valuable deals, and strain professional relationships.

    Haphazard parking can obstruct access to key business locations. This may result in missed appointments, failed deals, and ultimately, lost opportunities. The ripple effects of these disruptions go beyond individual businesses; it impacts the broader economic environment.

    While it may not seem obvious, this could slow down economic growth, cause needless stress, and bring about unnecessary conflicts.

    No matter how robust and future-focused the traffic management initiatives of the government are, ostensibly simple activities such as illegal parking can thwart these efforts if not properly managed.

    It is commendable that the Lagos State government is keen on implementing a carefully designed parking management system, as evidenced by the creation of the Parking Authority and Parking Policy. However, these renewed efforts in parking management might not yield the expected results if people do not embrace a proper parking culture.

    We all speak so highly of the so-called ‘saner societies’ where things work fine. What we always forget to note is that those societies are strictly governed by extant laws and rules. Breaking such rules attracts heavy penalties that cannot be escaped, no matter how influential or well-connected you are. 

    The saner society that we all clamour for can only become a reality when everyone joins hands together to always do the right thing.  No matter the commitment of the government toward solving the state’s peculiar traffic challenge, all will amount to nothing without the backing of the residents.

    We must always be willing to do the right thing. Nothing works fine in a chaotic environment. Lagosians are, therefore, urged to imbibe a good parking culture that not only aligns with the existing regulations but also puts the welfare of others into consideration. This is the only way that we can all live to enjoy the ‘Greater Lagos’ of our collective aspiration.

    The Lagos State government, through the Lagos State Parking Authority (LASPA), is ever-committed to transforming parking management. By leveraging thorough urban planning, significant infrastructure investment, and a strong parking policy, the government is working with all stakeholders to provide innovative and sustainable solutions to parking.

    The establishment of LASPA and the introduction of the Lagos State Parking Policy underscore the government’s determination to tackle parking issues with a strategic, science-based approach.

    On the whole, the need to embrace a civilized and properly regulated parking culture cannot be over-emphasized, given the complex and indispensable nature of the transport sector in Lagos. By the time all the ongoing initiatives of the government aimed at efficiently regulating parking in the state become visible and effective, coupled with renewed efforts to promote an intermodal transport system, it is expected that more robust public transportation would evolve in the state and Lagosians would be the better for it.

    But then, we all need to join hands with the government to make this dream a reality by protecting public infrastructure as well as strictly adhering to all traffic rules and regulations.

    •Dabiri is of the Public Affairs Unit, Lagos State Parking Authority (LASPA), Ikeja, Lagos.

  • Imperative of early voting and Diaspora voting bills

    Imperative of early voting and Diaspora voting bills

    • By Anthony Ubani

    In a dynamic and rapidly changing world, the principles of democracy must evolve to meet the needs of all citizens, wherever they may be. In Nigeria, two crucial reforms—early voting and diaspora voting—are long overdue, with the potential to significantly enhance electoral participation, inclusivity, and the strength of the democratic process. As citizens become increasingly engaged with the global and technological landscape, it is imperative that the National Assembly passes laws enabling both early voting and diaspora voting. The urgency of these bills cannot be overstated.

    Which is why we must applaud and encourage Nigeria’s legislators at the National Assembly for having put in the work to get both bills to pass second reading. It is now critical to sustain the energy and commitment to drive the legislative process past the finishing line by passing both bills for third reading.

    But what makes these two bills so important?

    Early voting has emerged as a critical tool in many democratic nations, serving to increase voter turnout and alleviate the strains of Election Day logistics. For Nigeria, where elections often see large crowds and long waiting times at polling stations, early voting represents an opportunity to improve the voting experience for millions of citizens.

    Nigeria’s electorate is vast, with over 90 million registered voters. Yet, voter turnout remains a serious issue due to several factors, including work commitments, long distances to polling units, difficult terrains, weather conditions, threat of violence, loss of confidence in the electoral process lack of information and awareness.   Early voting offers the flexibility to cast ballots in the days leading up to Election Day, reducing the pressure on polling stations and encouraging more citizens to vote.

    In addition, Nigeria’s population is diverse, with many citizens living in rural or remote areas where access to polling stations is limited. Early voting can address these accessibility challenges by allowing people to vote at a time that is more convenient for them, regardless of geographical constraints.

    Reducing Election Day chaos

    The sheer volume of voters on Election Day often results in long queues, confusion, and logistical challenges. In many cases, people give up or are unable to cast their votes due to time constraints or a myriad of other complications. Early voting mitigates these challenges by spreading voter turnout across several days, thereby easing congestion and ensuring that polling units operate more efficiently.

    Barriers to voting, whether intentional or inadvertent, are a persistent issue in many electoral systems. In Nigeria, challenges such as political intimidation, election-day violence, and inadequate security measures can disproportionately affect certain demographics, such as women and the elderly. Early voting reduces the risks of voter suppression by giving citizens an opportunity to vote ahead of time, without being exposed to last-minute obstacles.

    Medical personnel, firefighters, police officers, military personnel and all other professionals who are referred to as first responders or emergency service workers will now have the opportunity to cast their ballot at a convenient time without compromising the safety of society.

    Diaspora voting

    About 28 African countries currently have some form of legal or constitutional arrangement that allows their citizens resident in other countries to participate in elections and cast their vote. Senegal, Kenya, Ghana and South Africa are just a few of the African countries already practicing Diaspora voting.

    Diaspora voting recognizes and accentuates the fundamental principle of enfranchisement of all citizens, particularly those living or working outside of the geographical territory of their country. Nigeria’s diaspora community is one of the largest in the world. Estimates of the number of Nigerians living in the diaspora vary, with figures ranging from five to over 20 million individuals. The wide range in estimates is due to differences in data sources, definitions, and methodologies.  Approximately 42% of Nigerians living abroad reside within Africa, with significant communities in countries like South Africa, Ghana, and Cameroon. About 58% live outside Africa, primarily in Europe and North America.

    These citizens contribute significantly to the country’s economy, culture, and international presence. Despite their invaluable contributions, they remain excluded from the democratic process – a situation that is both unjust and shortsighted. Allowing Nigerians abroad to vote is a necessary step toward a more inclusive and representative democracy.

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    Recognizing the role of the diaspora

    The Nigerian diaspora is a key driver of the country’s economy, sending home billions of dollars annually in remittances. Nigerians in Diaspora remit an average of $20 billion to Nigeria annually. Over the past five years, Nigerians in the diaspora have sent home more than $90 billion, underscoring their vital contribution to economic development This financial contribution plays an integral role in supporting families and boosting local economies. Beyond economics, the diaspora also influences global perception of Nigeria, with many Nigerians abroad actively promoting their country’s interests. Yet, these citizens are disenfranchised when it comes to national elections.

    Allowing diaspora voting would recognize the vital role these Nigerians play in Nigeria’s development, both at home and abroad. It would also ensure that their voices are heard in the decision-making processes that directly impact the Nigeria’s future.

    Diaspora voting has the potential to foster a stronger sense of national unity. The inclusion of Nigerians living abroad in the electoral process would demonstrate that their contributions to the country – through both financial support and advocacy – are valued by the Nigerian state. This inclusion would also help strengthen ties between citizens at home and abroad, fostering a more connected and cohesive nation.

    Moreover, the ability to vote would provide Nigerian citizens abroad with a greater sense of ownership over the political system. It would instill a deeper sense of pride and responsibility, as they would have a direct stake in the governance and policies of their home country.

    The Nigerian diaspora is spread across the globe, from Africa to North America, Europe, Asia, and beyond. Many diaspora Nigerians are actively engaged in their host countries’ political systems, gaining insights and experience that can be beneficial to the Nigerian political landscape. Allowing them to vote would give the country access to these global perspectives, enriching national discourse and encouraging international cooperation on issues such as trade, diplomacy, and development.

    The need for both early voting and diaspora voting in Nigeria has never been more urgent. As the country navigates a period of significant political and social transformation, it must seek to modernize its electoral process to better reflect the realities of an increasingly connected world.

    It is heartening that that the National Assembly is already moving forward with commendable action on these two long overdue bills.  Passing the early voting and diaspora voting bills is not just a matter of legal reform; it is a moral imperative. These reforms are essential to modernizing Nigeria’s electoral process, empowering citizens, and ensuring that the country’s democracy is more inclusive, transparent, and representative. The National Assembly must rise to the occasion and do all that is necessary to ensure that these two bills are passed to become the law of the land.

    Nigerians, at home and abroad deserve nothing less.

    •Ubani writes from Abuja.

  • Legality of Soludo’s prohibition of market preaching

    Legality of Soludo’s prohibition of market preaching

    • By Anthony S. Aladekomo

    Recently, a video of the governor of Anambra State, Charles Chukwuma Soludo, went viral on the social media. He was seen confronting an apparent Christian preacher at what appeared to be a roadside at a market and warning him and his likes against preaching again in the market or on the roadside. The incident was also well reported by the traditional media.

    In an apparently intimidating or bullying mood, he yelled at the preacher: “If you want to preach the Word of God, go to your church. You are causing noise pollution here. You cannot come to a marketplace and disturb everyone. If you want to preach, go to a church. Those who want to listen will come to you; you cannot force people in the market to hear your message. This is a marketplace, not a church. You are violating the law. You cannot take over a public space and turn it into a church. Otherwise, you will be charged for using this space.”

    He was also quoted as threatening and pontificating that any violator of his instant executive legislation would pay a fine of N500,000.

    It has to be noted that, in his statements to the poor preacher, he also said: “You cannot take over a public space and turn it into a church. Otherwise, you will be charged for using this space.” This is nothing but doublespeak. So, is Mr. Governor really out to fight noise pollution or to scheme for another revenue source?

    As a teacher of environmental law and human rights law and an advocate of both, I cannot but agree that nobody should be allowed to be a victim of noise pollution. In fact, public safety (including a noise-free environment) is one of the limitations to the right to freedom of religion. 

    However, many things are obviously wrong with Soludo’s recent executive criminalisation of market and roadside preaching in Anambra State. His threats would have been reasonable if he had directed it against preachers in residential or educational areas, especially in unholy hours. How come also that he sees noise pollution as capable of emanating only from preachers but not from other places like music studios and business-promoting megaphones at the market?

    The grandstanding of the Anambra State governor against preachers is discriminatory and is a flagrant violation of the constitutionally guaranteed freedom of religion, freedom of speech and due process that are evergreen in our legal system and in the international human rights regime. His so-called verbal ban on market and roadside preaching without any enabling law or with a law still being hidden is unconstitutional. It is elementary constitutional law knowledge that, by the authorities of section 36 (12) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 1999 and the case of Aoko v Fagbemi (1961) 1 All NLR 400, not even a court can convict any person of a crime here unless the crime and its penalty are defined in a written law. 

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    Somebody may now say: “But he was only banning preaching only at the market and on the roadside.” Why should a governor of a state even come by himself to confront a peaceful preacher in a market? Is that the procedure stipulated by the still hidden or imaginary law against noise pollution or anti-preaching law that he was trying to enforce?

    Are there no other greater problems like insecurity, unemployment, pervading hunger and infrastructural deficit that he could have attended to? Indeed, the governor is merely curing ringworms while leaving leprosy to fester.

    In any case, can a state governor whimsically, capriciously, unilaterally and verbally declare an act or omission a crime and impose a fine on it? Is it not even ridiculous and ludicrous that a governor in Nigeria today will be imposing N500,000 fine on street preaching? This is indeed another proof that there is a serious disconnect between the government and the governed in Nigeria.

    How much does he pay as minimum wage per month? The federally recommended amount is just N70,000:00 and yet he is there imposing N500,000:00 fine on market preaching! It is interesting to note that neither the governor nor any of his aides has so far identified any complainant in the whole saga. Which one is likely to constitute real or more noise pollution: A market preaching or the inherent general market noise?

    Practically speaking, the governor needs to know that such a preaching has the ability to save not just sinners but persons who are dangerous to governance and the society, like gunmen, armed robbers and social miscreants, many of who sometimes lurk around markets and the roadside. Indeed, researchers have strongly found out that religion plays an important role in the psycho-social wellbeing of the governed in any society. In fact, I have, on different occasions, personally witnessed bus transporters contributing money for gospel preachers in Lagos, sometimes even without them asking for it.

    Obviously, the governor needs familiarisation with due process and the human rights that all Nigerians (including street preachers) are entitled to under the municipal and international human rights law. For the avoidance of doubt, section 38 (1) of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution provides that “every person shall be entitled … (either alone or in community with others, and in public or in private) to manifest and propagate his religion or belief”. Similar provisions are in article 8 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights 1981, article 18 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights 1966 and article 18 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights 1948. If you criminalise street, roadside or market preaching, you are virtually telling preachers to move to the forest or the desert to “propagate their religion.” To who there?

    For the avoidance of doubt, street, roadside or market preaching has been declared a lawful exercise of religious freedom. In Kokkinakis v Greece 1993 Ser. A. No. 260 A, 17 EHRR 397, the applicant was charged with unlawful proselytisation in the form of intrusion on the religious beliefs of Orthodox Christians. He was convicted. His appeal to the European Court of Human Rights was however allowed. The court held that non-criminal proselytisation remained a major way to express religious freedom. In fact, the British Police recently paid heavy compensation to one Oluwole Ilesanmi, a Nigerian, after realising the illegality of his arrest by them for preaching on the street of London. In a nutshell, Christians, Muslims, African traditional religion believers and other religious practitioners have the right to lawfully propagate their religions in public places in Nigeria and in all normal jurisdictions.

    I hope the foregoing legal and practical points will move Governor Soludo to realise that he has embarked on an illegal voyage of war against innocuous preachers, against who no complaint has been lodged. I do hope that he will soon explain away the so-called prohibition of preaching at markets and roadsides. This is because, as abundantly stated in the foregoing, it is a violation of the right to freedom of religion of the preachers and because it is practically needless. 

    •Dr. Aladekomo is a law lecturer and public affairs analyst.

  • What IBB did right

    What IBB did right

    Since the launch of his autobiography a few weeks ago, Ibrahim Babangida’s book has been subjected to critical analysis by the public. The analysts have x-rayed his achievements and failures. Today, I want to pay attention only to his achievements while I hope to focus attention on his failures in the weeks to come.

    Let it be known that no leader is 100% perfect or 100% imperfect. This is because no human being is perfect. Also, every leader makes mistakes because governance involves lots of people with particular interests and people seek to push their own interests into the decision-making process.

    In the midst of these interests which may sometimes be conflicting, a leader may make mistakes.

    President Babangida who overthrew General Muhammadu Buhari in August 1985 was a Ssldier with the organisational genius of a field marshal. He is not a tall man, but he was the linchpin in the military system with a monumental self-confidence. This presence brought for him enormous respect within and outside the armed forces. His smile with his tooth-gap was disarmingly generous. He used this smile and an accompanying charm to good effect, hoodwinking those who came his way.

    In the art of governance, he went for some of the best and brightest from our universities as ministers and special advisers. These eggheads contributed considerably to the intellectual impact that his policies enjoyed. Some of them also helped in crafting the excellent speeches that Babangida gave on even controversial subjects.

    When he was about to deliver a major speech at the United Nations in 1992, he went out of his way to invite into his speech drafting team, public intellectuals who were not in his government. Such persons included Dr. Stanley Macebuh, Dr. Yemi Ogunbiyi and a few others whose names I do not remember now; I was also there. Even though the diplomats had done an excellent job by detailing in the draft speech issues that were important to the global south, we also had to work on the fluency and lyricalness of the narration in a way that matched Babangida’s manner of speaking. It was an excellent rendition that brought honour to Nigeria as a country of significance. That was one example of Babangida’s quest for excellence.

    One of the brilliant ideas that Babangida and his team borrowed from South East Asia was the People/s Bank and Microfinance banks which dotted and still dot the landscape of Nigeria today. Even though the People’s Bank did not survive the politics of the time, the microfinance banks have been a major addition to the banking paraphernalia, especially in the rural areas.

    Even though the big banks still dominate the banking scene today, the microfinance banks have filled admirably the void that had existed for years in the banking sector. The fact that they have survived up till today is a credit to the creativity of the thinkers in the Babangida government.

    Most democratic countries in the world today are a two-party system, even if they have some fringe parties struggling to survive. In Britain, there are the Labour and Conservative parties. In the United States, there are the Republican and Democratic parties. There are also minor parties either struggling to survive or seeking to have some kind of partnership with either the ruling parties or the opposition parties.

    The reason many of these countries have two parties is because in ideological terms, you only have leftist and rightist parties. Parties at the centre are ideologically barren.

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    In Nigeria, Babangida created two parties; the NRC and the SDP. The slogan at the time was “a little to the right and a little to the left”. When you look at the global scenario today, it can be said that Babangida was thinking ahead of his time. Since 1999 when we welcomed the fourth Republic, Nigeria has had several parties, each struggling to be the dominant party in governance or the leading opposition party. Today, the APC is the ruling party, while the PDP is the main opposition party. There are two fringe parties, the Labour party and the NNPP. Other small parties are struggling to be big players.

    But the truth is that today, it is the APC and the PDP that can be regarded as the leading parties even though they both have problems. The SDP which was the party on which Chief MKO Abiola contested the presidential election in 1993 and won is trying to have a rebirth, pushing to get rebels from the existing parties.

    The attempt to have two major parties in Nigeria has not yet succeeded. The problem really is that there is hardly any significant difference between the parties. That is why politicians just stroll from one party to another at every election cycle. If at any time in the near or far future, Nigeria becomes a truly two-party democracy, a lot of the credit will go to Babangida for pressing for it in his days as a military president.

    One of the most significant achievements of the Babangida era is the opening up of the ownership of radio and television to the private sector in, I think, 1991. Before this time, the electronic media in Nigeria were owned only and solely by the federal and state governments. The fear had been that the electronic media are too powerful to be left in the hands of the private sector. It was said at the time that with the advent of the transistor radio, you could reach anyone anywhere, electricity or on electricity. That was seen as danger waiting to happen.

    As for television, the fear was that it has the powerful combination of sight and sound. That, they said, was danger personified. These fears were grossly exaggerated. The electronic media have not proved to be more dangerous to the survival of the nation than the print media. The print media with their power of permanence are quite a force to reckon with. That is why several print media houses were shut down by the Babangida administration.

    By opening up the electronic media to private investors, Babangida expanded the range of media output available to the public. The action has also increased the level of competition among the media, thus leading to improved coverage of events and an enhanced opportunity for the public’s right to know. It is a major irony that it was a military government that did not seem to be in a hurry to handover the government to elected civilians that decided to enhance the availability of democracy’s major tool. Today, all Nigerians easily tune to any station of their choice, thanks to Babangida.

    There is Miller’s law that states that, “you can’t tell how deep a puddle is until you step into it”. I wonder whether Babangida, all things considered, feels that he took the right decision to open up the electronic media to the private sector.

    There are two things on which Babangida deserves to be commended today;

    (a) His autobiography, and,

    (b) His Presidential library.

    For many Nigerians, it is a matter of great pleasure that he allowed his mind to run backwards, flipping his memory file and producing a book that is eagerly read by many Nigerians. Whatever anyone thinks of the book, it is a document of history. It gives other thinkers the opportunity to react to what he has said. The total exertions by a number of people on the book will sum up to the complete history of Nigeria in those subject areas. Nigeria will benefit more if many more of our leaders decide, to write as Olusegun Obasanjo had done before now, when he gave us My Watch, a three-book documentation of his governance journey.

    Again, Obasanjo took the lead in building a Presidential Library, a tradition established by American presidents. Now with Babangida’s proposed presidential library, we are likely to have, in one place, appropriate documents of his presidency. That too, like the book, will be history in one place.

  • USAID and resilience of terror in Nigeria

    USAID and resilience of terror in Nigeria

    By Charles Onunaiju

    The recent ranking of Nigeria in the global terrorism index raises concerns about what appear like the resilience of terror in the country despite the multi-pronged approaches of the security agencies to tackle it. The latest report on the Global Terrorism Index indicated that Nigeria’s condition have deteriorated, having moved from the 8th most terrorized country in the world in 2023 to the 6th position in 2024. The report further provided the gory statistics that the country had an increase of terrorist-caused deaths of 565 in 2024 as against 392 and 533 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, indicating that the terrorist trauma of Nigerians is in the upswing.

    And this comes against the background of the recent revelation by the U.S Congressman from Pennsylvania, Scott Perry that the fabled U.S aids, innocuously disguised as development support for recipient countries including Nigeria, are actually funnelled to enable and sustain terrorist groups, including Nigeria’s notorious Boko Haram in their deadly activities, which conservatively is estimated to have killed tens of thousands of people and destroyed properties worth billions of Naira. Terrorism especially the suicidal type was unheard of, in Nigeria until the early 2000’s. Even then, the activities of the Boko Haram extremist sect were confined to a very small patch of the country in the Northeast and were contained by police actions whenever they flared up.

    The dramatic escalations of the terrorist violence coincided with the collapse of the Muammar Gadhafi’s government in Libya, following the U.S-led NATO intervention that led to the assassination of the Libyan leader and to the chaos that followed. The Sahel countries in the West African sub-region along with Nigeria were quickly drawn into the vortex of terrorist belligerency and extant escalation.

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    Despite the novelty of suicidal terrorism in Nigeria, the country’s security forces responded in very forceful manner but more than 20 years later, world terrorism index ranking still identifies Nigeria as one of the world’s most ravaged by terror. The question remains where and what is the source of terrorist existential resilience in Nigeria.

    While the answers could have been guessed for so long, the definitive disclosure of the U.S Congress man in a rare moment of truth from the extreme partisan bickering in U.S recent politics threw light to the enduring resilience of the Nigeria’s terror group despite all the pressure.

    Nigeria, naturally by its size, resource-endowment and the dynamism of her diverse population should worry the Deep State strategists of the sole superpower, whose essential article of international intercourse is domination that brooks no consideration for the extant equality of all states in accordance with international law.

    The fear that a country of Nigeria’s stature can exercise strategic autonomy in her sovereign decisions and reach independent conclusions in critical global issues, thereby upending coercive influence-peddling of the obsessive hegemonic powers is real in the international ecosystem of power politics and alliance factions and cliques. From the point of the premium geo-politics, a Nigeria that is united, strong and less distracted from the acrimonious pulls of the internal conflicts with terrorism as its most toxic variant, is neither desirable nor even acceptable.

    Nigeria is a regional consequential power with high prospect of emerging as an influential voice and actor on the global stage. The fear that it can independently exercise sovereign autonomy on decisions of strategic global importance may have earned her, the burden of terror as a strategic containment to her prospective pre-eminence. The revelation that USAID is complicit in the growth and nurture of terrorism in Nigeria, while also feeding its resilience should be of more than casual interest to Nigeria’s relevant authorities.

    Despite the strenuous efforts of the U.S Ambassador to Nigeria, Richard Mills to deny that the USAID funds have aided terrorist violence and destructions in Nigeria, especially the ultra-violent Boko-Haram, many Nigerians including members of the federal legislature would have none of that. A member of the House of Representatives Inuwa Garba has countered the claim, contending that the U.S envoy has no right to say if the allegations were true or false without adequate investigation. The Pandora box of U.S involvement in terrorist funding though mostly muted, was in the open when the U.S Congressman, Scott Perry said in a committee hearing that the USAID have helped to nurture and maintain a string of deadly terrorist organizations.

    He has said to his colleagues about the USAID funds, “who gets some of the money. Does that name ring a bell to anybody in the room? Because your money, your money, $697 million annually plus the shipments of cash funds in Madrasas, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, ISIS Khorasan terrorist groups training camps. That’s what’s its funding.”

    Bringing to the open what the ‘Deep State’ does outside the purview of normal democratic process has raised airs especially in regions and countries where the nefarious activities of the deadly terrorist gangs have wreaked havoc on lives and livelihoods, including Nigeria. Nigeria’s legislative branch has refused to let the matter go under the carpet despite the best efforts of the U.S envoy who has tried to casually dismiss the allegations.

    From what is unfolding in Washington, it appears even more convincing to keen watchers that the USAID was also a partisan conduit by a party to corruptly received kick-backs from countries allegedly helped as most monies given to these countries are funnelled back to the mostly Democratic Party operatives to the tune of about 50% of what they received.

    According to a report by Indian Express media, a US$21 million earmarked for voter “turnout in India” was actually allocated to Bangladeshi students for “political and civic engagement” before the January 2024 elections in Bangladesh. Subsequently, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina who has somehow been friendly to China was forced to resign and fled the country following prolonged massive and violent student-led protests that left several hundreds dead.

    At a speech in Miami recently, President Trump queried “why do we need to spend $21 million for voter turnout in India? Wow, $21 million! I guess they were trying to get somebody else elected”.

    However, funding student violent protests and manipulating elections might be vile but becomes insignificant compared to terrorist funding, and it is known that USAID activities were closely associated to the funding of terrorist, extremist groups and such other shadowy organizations, whose activities, Washington has seemingly used to destabilize domestic political situation in many countries and regions in the world with the overall ambition to effect regime-changes of governments and leaders whose policies does not sit in compliance with Washington’s needs and aspirations.

    Most target countries like Nigeria may no longer wonder at the resilience of the extremist groups despite the enormous pressure mounted at them by the country’s security forces including the military. It is also no brainer that the USAID offices domiciled abroad are mostly operational bases for the special services of the U.S Deep State and part of the covert activities is to create a network of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) only used as a cover for the subversive activities of the USAID.

    Thankfully, the Nigeria’s legislative branch whose members are directly representatives of the people including communities that have been adversely affected by the activities of extremist and terrorist groups, have vowed to investigate and probe the activities of USAID in the country. A dig into the activities of USAID, especially with the expose from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) might uncover the reasons for the unusual resilience of terrorist and extremist groups with some of them mutating to kidnapping and robbery gangs in Nigeria.

    •Onunaiju writes from the FCT, Abuja.

  • Federal Secretariat Abia and Tinubu’s blueprint for equity

    Federal Secretariat Abia and Tinubu’s blueprint for equity

    By Nnaji Charles

    When it comes to renewed “Renewed Hope Agenda” it could be said that the sun rises in the East although the Southeast has often been the thread that, though vibrant, seemed frayed at the edges. For decades, the region has yearned for its fair share of federal projects, a longing that has often felt like a cry in the wilderness. Yet, presidents upon presidents have come and gone, even as the cries lingered.

    Today, under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership, the narrative has continued to shift. Like a master weaver, Tinubu is threading the needle of equity and inclusion, stitching together a patchwork of promises into a quilt of tangible progress. At the heart of this transformation is the long-awaited Federal Secretariat in Abia State, a project that has become a symbol of the fulfilment of a promise long deferred.

    It is mind-boggling that Abia State could not be connected to the centre in terms of federal infrastructure. After nearly 34 years of its creation, the story of Abia’s Federal Secretariat is one of persistence, bureaucratic labyrinths, and the determined commitment of a few good men.

    It began on a crisp October morning in 2019, when Rep. Sam Ifeanyi Onuigbo, while representing Ikwuano/Umuahia Federal Constituency, stood before the then Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Raji Fashola SAN, during a budget defence session. With the precision of a surgeon, Onuigbo dissected the glaring omission of Abia State from the list of states slated for inclusion in the Federal Secretariat projects.

    “Why,” he asked, “should states created after Abia have functional federal secretariats while Abia, the first alphabetically, remains in the shadows?” His question was not just a query but a call for justice. Fashola’s response was both a challenge and a promise: the federal government would construct a federal secretariat in Abia, provided the state-allocated land for the project. 

    What followed was a marathon race of advocacy, spearheaded by Onuigbo, who became the torchbearer for this cause. Like a relay runner, he passed the baton of urgency to then Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, who, to his credit, endorsed the project and allocated seven hectares of land at Ekeoba Ohuhu, Umuahia North Local Government Area. Yet, as with many noble endeavours, the road was fraught with obstacles. The project became enmeshed in the web of bureaucracy and political manipulation, with the lack of title documents and compensation payments acting as a cog in the wheel of progress. For instance, Onuigbo’s letters to the state government, dated October 23, 2019, March 12, 2021, February 21, 2022, and March 27, 2023, were met with silence, a silence that echoed the frustration of a people long accustomed to waiting. 

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    Enter Governor Alex Otti, a man whose leadership style can be likened to a breath of fresh air in a room long stifled by inertia. Upon Otti’s assumption of office on May 29, 2023, Onuigbo wasted no time as he met with the governor on June 20 2023, less than one month after his inauguration, and reintroduced the matter. He explained the bottlenecks that had stalled the project. Onuigbo further conveyed to Otti the urgent need to engage with a critical stakeholder in the actualization of the project, His Royal Highness, Eze Iheanyichukwu Nwokenna, the traditional ruler of Ekeoba Kingdom, the landowners. True to his reputation as a pragmatic leader, Otti facilitated the issuance of the title documents and ensured the payment of compensation to affected landowners. Like a skilled mechanic, Otti removed the rusted bolts of delay, allowing the wheels of progress to turn once more. 

    While the efforts of Onuigbo and Otti have been instrumental, the project’s ultimate realization hinges on the commitment of the federal government. Here, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda shines like a lighthouse, guiding the ship of development to the shores of the Southeast.

    Tinubu’s administration has demonstrated a deep understanding that Nigeria’s strength lies in its diversity, and that its progress must be inclusive. The federal secretariat in Abia is more than just a building; it is a symbol of Tinubu’s promise to bridge the infrastructural gap in the Southeast. It is a symbol of his administration’s resolve to ensure that no region is left behind in the march towards national development. The project, when completed, will not only house federal agencies, but also serve as a hub of economic activity, creating jobs and reducing the financial burden of renting office spaces.

    As the project inches closer to realization, Onuigbo has called on Abia’s political leaders, stakeholders, and pressure groups to unite in advocating for its swift completion. “This is about our collective future and the dignity of our state,” he urged. His words are a reminder that development is not a spectator sport; it requires the active participation of all stakeholders.

    The Federal Secretariat in Abia is one of Tinubu’s infrastructural transformation agendas for the Southeast. The project is a symbol of a brighter future, a future where the Southeast stands tall as one of the pillars of Nigeria’s progress. 

    As Abia State celebrates its 34th anniversary in August, the prospect of a federal secretariat stands as a reminder that even the longest night must yield to dawn. President Tinubu’s commitment to this project, coupled with the tireless efforts of leaders like Onuigbo and Governor Otti, underscores the power of collective effort.

    In the end, the Federal Secretariat in Abia is more than a building; it is a monument to resilience, a testament to the power of advocacy, and a symbolic fulfilment of Tinubu’s promise to the people of the Southeast. It is a story of hope renewed, promises kept, and a future of endless possibilities. And, as the foundation is laid and the walls rise, so too will the spirits of a people who have waited too long for their turn in the sun, rise in exultant celebration.

  • Neo-liberal paradox, imperialist fantasies and an empire’s rebirth

    Neo-liberal paradox, imperialist fantasies and an empire’s rebirth

    By Samuel Akpobome Orovwuje

    “The cheerleaders for neo-liberalism work hard to normalize dominant institutions and relations of power through a vocabulary and public pedagogy that create market-driven subjects, modes of consciousness, and ways of understanding the world that promote accommodation, quietism and passivity.”  Henry Giroux.

    Two of the most consequential political developments in the United States in Donald Trump’s  second coming  have been the emergence of hostility toward immigration and the rise of identity politics. These shifts, particularly under the presidency of Trump, have redefined the global political landscape. Immigration debates have increasingly become intertwined with economics, culture, history, and identity, fuelling reactionary policies and nationalist sentiments.

    Post-World War II economic policy was marked by a bipartisan Keynesian consensus, ushered in by the Employment Act of 1946. Keynesianism, rooted in the belief that capitalism is inherently unstable and requires government intervention, helped stabilize economies ravaged by the Great Depression. However, as the 1970s drew to a close, Keynesian policies gave way to neoliberalism—a doctrine that champions minimal government oversight and unregulated market forces. This transition has had profound consequences for global economic and social stability.

    The Trump administration sought to impose a far-right agenda driven by ideologues, white supremacists, and Christian fundamentalists. Policies pursued during this period exacerbated economic inequality, weakened democratic institutions, and undermined global cooperation.

    More alarmingly, Trump harboured imperialistic fantasies that threatened international stability. His alleged intentions to annex Greenland, Panama, and even Canada demonstrated an overt disregard for international law and the Westphalian principles of national sovereignty. These reactionary policies, however, were inherently unsustainable. Many of Trump’s key officials lacked the competence to execute a long-term governance strategy. Moreover, the administration’s disregard for global alliances and multilateral agreements further alienated the United States from its allies, creating economic and diplomatic instability.

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    Neoliberalism has historically benefited the wealthy elite while exacerbating economic disparities for the working class and the poor in society. The tax cuts, deregulation, and austerity measures championed by the Trump administration were designed to accelerate wealth accumulation for corporations and billionaires, all at the expense of social programs that benefit ordinary citizens. This pattern of wealth concentration is not unique to the United States—similar policies were seen during the Thatcher and Reagan administrations, which ushered in a new era of capitalism that prioritized financial markets over industrial production.

    The financialization of the economy has led to increased volatility, as capital is increasingly directed toward speculative markets rather than productive investment. The Bretton Woods institutions, initially established to stabilize global financial systems, have often enforced structural adjustment programs that have plunged developing economies into debt crises. This systemic instability suggests that capitalism, in its current form, remains on an unsustainable trajectory.

    The Trump administration’s approach to governance mirrored authoritarian regimes of the past. The resurgence of nationalist fervour and anti-democratic tendencies among his supporters indicates a broader shift toward illiberalism. The “Make America Great Again” movement was not merely about economic protectionism; it embodied a rejection of democratic norms and a nostalgia for imperial dominance.

    Trump’s threats to overrun Panama, Denmark, or annex Canada were not just rhetorical flourishes but indicative of a deeper impulse toward expansionism. Such ambitions pose a direct challenge to the post-World War II international order, which was built on principles of sovereignty and mutual cooperation. The erosion of a rules-based international system, coupled with trade wars and economic isolationism, has contributed to the United States’ gradual decline as a global leader.

    President Donald Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy is disrupting global geopolitics, forcing other countries to reassess their long-term security and strategic autonomy. His admiration for strongman leaders and scepticism toward traditional alliances have left nations questioning their place in an increasingly volatile world order.

    Additionally, defence and trade to climate and diplomacy, the world faces a defining challenge: how to assert itself as a self-sufficient global power. The lesson from Trump’s first presidency is clear—reacting to U.S. policy shifts is not a strategy. The world must prepare for a future in which American alignment is no longer guaranteed.

    Sadly, climate change policy offers the clearest example of this shifting dynamic. Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement weakened global cooperation on climate action, directly clashing with globe’s environmental agenda. With U.S. leadership absent, can the global north spearhead the fight against climate change alone? Or will it turn to new alliances to fill the gap? Xi Jinping’s latest overtures suggest China is eager to step into this role, positioning itself as a dependable climate partner for the world.

    As Trump’s foreign policy continues to challenge the foundations of transatlantic cooperation, the world stands at a crossroads. Will the world struggle to adapt, or will it seize this moment to redefine its role on the global stage—on their own terms?

    The failures of neoliberalism and the resurgence of authoritarianism demand a re-evaluation of global economic and political structures. The United States, once the champion of democratic ideals, now flirts with the very forces that it once opposed. Without a reinvigoration of grassroots political movements and economic policies that prioritize social welfare over corporate greed, the trajectory toward economic inequality and authoritarian governance will continue.

    The past has shown that unchecked capitalism inevitably leads to crisis. Whether the global community can forge a new path—one that balances market efficiency with social equity—remains the defining question of our time. The return of empire is not inevitable, but unless decisive action is taken, the spectre of authoritarianism and economic turmoil will loom over the future of global governance.

    •Orovwuje is a global affairs enthusiast.

  • How Nigeria and developing countries can leverage cryptonomics

    How Nigeria and developing countries can leverage cryptonomics

    By Jude Dike

    In an age where financial systems are rapidly evolving, developing countries like Nigeria find themselves at a critical crossroads. Burdened by crippling national debts, stagnating economic growth, and inflationary pressures, these nations are increasingly looking for innovative solutions to break the cycle of dependency and rebuild their economies. One such promising avenue is cryptonomics, which is the intersection of cryptocurrency and economic policy. By harnessing the transformative power of decentralized finance (DeFi), blockchain technology, and digital currencies, developing nations can shift from traditional, debt-laden growth models to one that is sustainable, transparent, and inclusive.

    While the potential is immense, realizing it requires a strategic, multifaceted approach.

    Current debt crisis: A global concern

    Developing nations, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, are facing a debt crisis of alarming proportions. Nigeria’s national debt, for example, has skyrocketed over the past decade, now surpassing $100 billion. While debt financing may initially seem like a viable option for funding infrastructure and development projects, it has placed these countries in a precarious position, with large portions of national revenues devoted to servicing interest payments. Coupled with inflation, political instability, and inadequate fiscal management, these debts constrain economic growth and exacerbate income inequality. Traditional financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank often offer loans with stringent conditions, such as austerity measures, which can stifle long-term growth.

    The promise of cryptonomics

     Cryptonomics, a term that blends cryptocurrency with economics, holds the potential to offer developing countries an alternative financial ecosystem that bypasses traditional, centralized financial systems.

    Here’s how it can help:

    1. *Debt Reduction through Digital Asset Monetization: One of the most powerful tools at the disposal of developing nations is the creation and monetization of digital assets. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even national digital currencies (Central Bank Digital Currencies, or CBDCs) offer the possibility to generate new forms of wealth, independent of the traditional fiat system. By adopting blockchain technology, governments can tokenize national assets, such as natural resources, real estate, and even intellectual property. These tokenized assets can be sold or traded in global markets, generating new revenue streams to pay down national debt.

    Nigeria, for example, could explore the tokenization of its vast oil reserves, creating a digital commodity that attracts foreign investors. These digital assets could potentially reduce reliance on external borrowing, offering an alternative revenue stream for debt servicing and development projects.

    2. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) for Inclusive Financial Services: Traditional banking systems in developing countries often leave large portions of the population underserved, particularly in rural and remote areas. Cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms can address this by offering inclusive financial services, such as lending, borrowing, and saving, without the need for intermediaries. In countries like Nigeria, where financial inclusion remains a major challenge, DeFi provides a potential solution. With DeFi protocols, citizens can access credit markets, even if they lack a formal credit history or a traditional bank account. By embracing these technologies, governments can foster an entrepreneurial ecosystem that empowers small businesses and individuals to access capital, thus stimulating local economies and reducing dependency on foreign loans.

    3. Currency Stabilization and Inflation Control: One of the major drawbacks of many developing countries is the volatility of their local currencies. Inflation erodes purchasing power, while the value of the national currency can fluctuate wildly due to poor monetary policies. In contrast, stablecoins (cryptocurrencies pegged to stable assets like the U.S. dollar) offer an opportunity for economic stabilization. A government could issue a national stablecoin, backed by the country’s reserves or an equivalent of its export revenue, as a way to preserve value and stabilize the domestic economy. This currency could be used for everyday transactions, creating a more stable financial environment for citizens and businesses alike. Additionally, national stablecoins could facilitate cross-border trade, reducing reliance on foreign currency and improving the balance of payments.

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    4. Improved Transparency and Reduced Corruption: Blockchain technology’s transparency and immutability features can be pivotal in addressing corruption, which often hampers economic development in developing countries. By recording all government transactions on a public blockchain, governments can ensure that public funds are used efficiently and transparently. Nigeria, for instance, could implement blockchain for managing public procurement, tracking social welfare distribution, or monitoring the flow of development funds. With a clear, publicly accessible ledger, the room for fraudulent activities decreases significantly, thereby attracting both domestic and international investors who are often wary of corruption in developing economies.

    5. Attracting Foreign Investment through Crypto-Friendly Policies: Countries that proactively adopt crypto-friendly policies can position themselves as hubs for blockchain innovation and cryptocurrency investment. By establishing favourable regulations and creating conducive environments for crypto businesses, governments can attract foreign investment and promote job creation in the blockchain sector. Nigeria’s government, for example, could introduce tax incentives for blockchain start-ups, legal frameworks that promote crypto business activities and educational programs that build a skilled workforce capable of leading the crypto revolution. By tapping into the global blockchain community, these countries could diversify their economies away from overreliance on traditional industries, such as oil, which are often subject to volatile global markets.

    A pathway to sustainable economic development

    To realize the potential of cryptonomics, developing countries like Nigeria must follow a carefully crafted pathway. Governments need to create clear, balanced regulations for the crypto sector that protect investors while fostering innovation. This would require collaboration with international regulatory bodies, private industry, and blockchain developers. Secondly, invest in the technological infrastructure necessary to support blockchain and crypto-based projects, including robust internet access, secure digital wallets, and mobile-based platforms for financial inclusion. Governments must invest in education and training programs to build a skilled workforce capable of developing and managing blockchain solutions. This will help reduce the digital divide and ensure local ownership of emerging technologies. Building international partnerships with blockchain firms, crypto exchanges, and investment funds will ensure that developing countries are integrated into the global crypto economy. Governments should experiment with using cryptocurrencies for everyday services, such as tax collection, salary payments, and social benefits, to familiarize citizens with digital currencies and encourage adoption.

    Cryptonomics offers a beacon of hope for countries like Nigeria and other developing nations trapped in the vicious cycle of debt and economic stagnation. By leveraging the power of digital currencies, blockchain technology, and decentralized finance, these countries can build a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable economic future. However, the journey is not without its challenges. The path to success requires clear regulatory frameworks, technological investments, and a concerted effort to educate citizens and businesses alike. If developing countries embrace cryptonomics thoughtfully and strategically, they can overcome their debt crises, foster innovation, and ultimately create a thriving, sustainable economic ecosystem that stands independent of the traditional financial systems that have long held them captive. It’s time to embrace the future of finance and unlock new possibilities for growth.

    •Dr. Dike is a college professor based in Calgary, Canada.

  • 2027: A crossroads of choice

    2027: A crossroads of choice

    We are at midterm, which means that the next electoral cycle has already started. Unfortunately, governance will begin to slow down as politicking and jockeying for advantage become more pronounced, distracting from the real work of administration and the quest to achieve sustainable development.

    The ruling party currently holds a significant advantage, facing an ill-defined and unfocused array of interest groups lacking cohesion. Unlike parliamentary systems, presidential systems don’t truly have an ‘opposition’ concept. Instead, they offer a focused alternative platform, presenting a distinct and more positive stance than the governing party’s. It sums it all that, within the reality of a very difficult economic crisis, there is no realistic, properly-costed alternative on offer. This is a clear indication of intellectual indolence and the absence of political parties showing up our present reality that what we have are Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs).

    To understand the 2027 outlook, we need to examine past election data, shifting alliances and current trends. One key point from the past data is that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), now President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, got 63% of his total votes from the 1966 Northern Region. This raises important questions: What does this mean if there’s growing disaffection with the current administration in the North and how will this impact the national majority that brought Tinubu to power?

    Assuming, of course, that there’s genuine disaffection in the North, rather than just posturing by those seeking advantage, it’s essential to recognize that there’s no ‘monolithic North’. So, the strength of the Tinubu coalition will vary significantly from state to state. In Kaduna, for instance, the APC is currently gaining ground due to defections, despite Abubakar Atiku’s comfortable win in the last presidential election.

    Given these dynamics, projections suggest Tinubu will win Kaduna by a comfortable margin in 2027, particularly as Southern Kaduna appears to be shifting towards the APC for the first time. The dynamics will shift from state to state, requiring analysis from this perspective, particularly as it affects senatorial and local government elections. With an expanding base in the South, the odds strongly favour Tinubu’s reelection by a convincing margin. Furthermore, the opposition’s disorganization and focus on personalities rather than programs undermine their effectiveness.

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    Had Nigeria been blessed with a robust opposition, it would likely have by now replicated the ‘Popular Front’ model, which was successfully done in Europe and Latin America in the past. This approach, which originated in the 1920s, reached its peak with Salvador Allende Gossens’ victory in Chile in 1971, and the subsequent formation of a Government of Popular Unity. A Popular Front is essentially an alliance of diverse groups, activists, political parties, and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs). In Latin America, it incorporated the LT, which was rooted in the Catholic Church. The Popular Front’s key strength lay in its clearly-defined alternative economic program, which aimed to achieve macro-economic stability as a means to attain social justice.

    Influential figures like Pope Francis and St. Karol Józef Wojtyła emerged from the Liberation Theology Movement (LT). Other prominent figures associated with this movement include St. Óscar Romero, Jamie Cardinal Sin, Carlos Filipe Ximenes Belo and Jean-Bertrand Aristide. This movement was particularly powerful in Latin American countries like Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. It was similar to Nigeria’s National Democratic Coalition (NADECO), with its own political, socioeconomic and related programmes.

    In today’s Nigeria, many of those competing for power have no intention of forming a popular front that would lead to a government of popular unity. Otherwise, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) wouldn’t have been so entangled in the Godswill Akapbio/Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan drama at a time when Sunday Jackson, who had killed his attacker, was facing a Supreme Court ruling upholding his conviction. If you ask CAN about Leah Sharibu’s whereabouts, they might respond flippantly, saying she’s sipping ‘fura de nono’ in its coldest state, somewhere in the Sambisa Forest. Similarly, inquire about what has come out of the senseless murder of Deborah Samuel, and the usual refrain, ‘God gives, God takes; glory be to God’, would rent the air! It is that bad; and it is sad!

    For the religious leaders, religion is more of a means to an end even as the followers continue to wallow in self-deceit. The sanctity of traditional thrones in Nigeria has also been carelessly and dangerously politicized that any Ganduje could just wake up from the ‘other room’ and disrupt an age-old system without considering the consequences of his actions. So, how do we develop a society in the midst of all kinds of social-yet-avoidable threats?

    Without an alternative perspective and the formation of a unified popular front, 2027 is looking like it’s going to be an anticlimax. Why? There will be gales of decamping to the ruling party, eliminating any impetus for policy review. It therefore means that Nigeria is actually between a rock and a hard place, with an opposition driven by self-interest rather than a genuine desire to provide alternative solutions and position itself as a viable government-in-waiting. Even Organized Labour today resembles what Karl Marx described as “an aristocracy of labour”, rather than an organization fighting for sustainable development and the continuous elevation of living standards. The country will have to grin and bear it, for such is the nature of a political economy that’s based on rent seeking, rather than building a sustainable production base.

    Tinubu’s reelection in 2027 appears certain, and one doesn’t need to be a soothsayer or visit Okija Shrine to foresee this outcome. As Detective Sherlock Holmes would say, “Elementary logic, Watson!”

    Ekiti’s next leap!

    One of the off-cycle elections next year will take place in Ekiti State, where Governor Biodun Oyebanji will face reelection. Oyebanji has several strengths to leverage when campaigning begins, particularly his efforts to redirect the state’s political economy in a positive direction, as widely acknowledged by conventional wisdom.

    Ekiti State has navigated the current economic transformation in very steady ways. The state’s poverty level is relatively manageable, rather than crippling. The governor’s strategic intervention in agriculture has built up buffers of price-modulating as well as supply-adjustment mechanisms. This approach has effectively withstood economic headwinds, serving as a model that other states would do well to emulate.

    In many ways, Oyebanji’s agricultural policies echo those of Gabriel Akinola Deko, a former Minister of Agriculture from neighbouring Ondo State. Deko, known for his astuteness, established Marketing and Commodity Boards to shield the masses from inflationary pressures. Oyebanji continues this approach!

    The governor also excels in two key areas: infrastructural development and management of the political class. His efforts have secured the Federal Government’s approval for the reconstruction of the Ado-Iyin-Igede-Aramoko-Itawure Road. The Bola Tinubu government has allocated N5.4 billion for this project, aiming to enhance connectivity and economic growth. As the state’s resources continue to improve, the expectation is that the ongoing Ado-Ekiti Ring Road project, connecting the new airport, will also be dualized.

    The dynamics of Ekiti State provide the incumbent governor with a highly favourable position, particularly in terms of electoral advantage. In a country seething in the grip of its own helplessness, Oyebanji has proven himself to be a quality leader! Fortunately for him, but unfortunately for the polity, there is currently no coherent alternative emerging from the grassroots to convincingly challenge his position.

    To upset an incumbent, one needs a coherent position, even if the incumbent is laughably incompetent. It is tragic that no such alternative position is in the offing, which says a lot about the current state of politics, not just in Ekiti State but nationwide.

    May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!