Ahead of next year’s governorship election in Osun State, there is division in the Omoluabi Group headed by former Governor Rauf Aregbesola and immediate past Minister of Interior, writes ASSISTANT EDITOR EMMANUEL BADEJO.
Interesting times lay ahead of the Osun landscape. In quick successions, political news from the Southwestern state hits the newsstands. All major political parties to participate in the August 8, 2026 governorship will have their fair share.
But, a political group that may lose out in the game may be the Omoluabi Progressives, headed by immediate past Minister of Interior, Alhaji Rauf Aregbesola.
The group has been reducing in its numerical strength, losing prominent members to other parties or political circles. Few days ago, the group lost a founding member and former Secretary of the state, Moshood Adeoti.
Earlier, some former PDP and members of Omoluabi group had defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), changing the political landscape of the state ahead of the election.
Omoluabi’s beginning
Omoluabi Progressives is a political “caucus” that emerged in August 2023, after internal strains in the ruling party. This followed disagreements within the APC. The faction laid the groundwork for alternative mobilization distinct from APC’s mainstream.
During the launch of the group, Aregbesola said: “The Omoluabi Tendency is a caucus within the APC, actually one of the caucuses in the state. We are not a faction. We are the genuine foundation members of the party and we have no intention of abandoning the ship of the party as it navigates the most turbulent waters. We are not sprinters, but long-distance runners and we will still be standing when all the fair-weather weather have gone.”
Aregbesola-Adeleke pact
Many political watchers believed that the incumbent governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke, would not have trounced his strong contender, Alhaji Gboyeka Oyetola, but for the tacit support of Aregbesola, Adeleke, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flag bearer, emerged the winner of the poll.
Shortly after the election, Aregbesola, Oyetola’s predecessor, publicly moved against the second-term ambition of Governor Oyetola although they were both members of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Reacting to Adeleke’s emergence, in a statement, Aregbesola described Oyetola’s defeat as the work of God.
Aregbesola wrote: “Osun Le Tente”. This matter is by the decree of the watchers, and the demand by the word of the holy ones: to the intent that the living may know that the Most High ruleth in the kingdom of men, and giveth it to whomsoever he will, and setteth up over it the basest of men.” – (Daniel 4:17).” Adeleke, 61, defeated Oyetola, 67, with a total of 403,371 votes against 375,027 scored by Oyetola – a difference of 28,314 votes.
Also, two days after clinching a decisive victory, Governor Adeleke confirmed on television that Mr Aregbesola’s men worked for his victory. By insinuations and public demonstrations, the former Internal Affairs minister proved to Osun and Nigerians that he was indeed pivotal to the outcome of that July 16, 2022 poll.
But, the alliance had since fallen apart as the former minister had publicly boosted to oust the incumbent, and Aregbesola’s political group keeps decimating in size.
Omoluabi group quits APC
Formally, the group left APC in 2025, citing “ostracisation from the party, suspension and expulsion of leaders without fair hearing, and continuous denigration of the structure.” That marked a decisive political break from being a faction within APC to becoming a distinct political force.
In a statement by the Organising and Publicity Secretary, Oluwaseun Abosede, the group added: “Expressed dissatisfaction with the management of Osun APC’s intra-party crisis, which led to the party’s abysmal loss in the last election cycle, a situation they consented has waned its strength and popularity among the people of Osun.
“The members were put to a voice vote by the leadership of the fold where they affirmed their readiness to switch allegiance to another political camp ahead of the 2026 governorship election in the state,” Abosede’s said.
Abosede said Aregbesola, commended them for their commitment and steadfastness to the principles of character, integrity and good governance.
Aregbesola, while commenting on the resolution to quit APC, noted that the time had come for the members to work aggressively for the success of Omoluabi Progressives and its vision to entrench good governance in Osun.
He also assured that in no distant time, the results of ongoing efforts by the leadership of the tendency to properly position it for the task ahead would materialise.
Adoption of ADC
The leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Osun State in July collapsed its structure, pledging alliance with the Omoluabi Progressives.
This followed the official adoption of the ADC platform by leaders of the National Coalition Group.
Thousands of supporters of the ADC alongside their colleagues in the Omoluabi Progressives thronged to the Oranmiyan House in Osogbo, celebrating the official birth of the coalition to rescue Nigeria from the current hardship inflicted by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
In his remarks, Osun State Chairman of the ADC, Mr. Charles Omidiji said members of the state working committee of the party are ready to coalesce with the Omoluabi Progressives to strengthen the opposition to reclaim power in the state.
They also expressed their unflinching loyalty to the leadership of the immediate-past Minister of Interior, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, assuring members of the public that the ADC will serve the interests of the masses.
Responding, Chairman of Omoluabi Progressives, Alhaji Azeez Adesiji appreciated the state executives of the ADC for their readiness to work with the tendency.
Adesiji noted that efforts will not be spared in solidifying the ADC structure in Osun, as it prepares to present its formidable force in next year’s governorship election.
He also called on members of the public who are willing to return Osun to the governance built on responsible leadership and service to the citizenry.
Members of the new ADC family in the state expressed optimism to work together and win the forthcoming gubernatorial election.
Group shrinks
In mid-2025, a major setback hit former Governor Rauf Aregbesola-led Omoluabi Progressive Group and Peoples Democratic Party as scores of members officially defected to the APC in Ejigbo Local Government Area of Osun State from Omoluabi’s Caucus. This strategic political realignment ushered in scores of PDP loyalists into APC.
Receiving the defectors into the party in their hundreds, the Ejigbo APC Leader, Senator Mudashiru Husain, who promised fairness, inclusivity also noted it was delightful and awe-inspiring \ the party kept heaping more members and increasing its ranks despite being in the opposition in the state.
The frontline governorship aspirant further emphasized the defectors have taken the best political decision because APC remained the only party that has deep connection with social welfarism, economic transformation and human capital development as being exemplified by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
According to him, “The unprecedented number of people cross-carpeting from PDP and particularly, Omoluabi Progressive Tendency, is a product of purposeful and collective leadership for which I’ve been pushed forward to spearhead by other Ejigbo progressive leaders as the Apex Leader. Our teamwork has paid off and it’s just starting.”
“Ours in Ejigbo progressive family is to unite ourselves as a strong force behind our leader, former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola and ensure we continue to gain more grassroots mobilizers that can put us ahead of other political parties in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election, and especially, for the success of our father, His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.”
The Chairman of Ejigbo Local Government, Ayegbayo Gbolahan, his counterpart from West LCDA, Hon. Olayanju Kolapo and APC Ejigbo LG Chairman, Hon. Lateef Adegoke appreciated the defectors for their thoughtfulness and pledged their unflinching commitment to working tirelessly for the growth of the party ahead of future elections.
Speaking on behalf of Omoluabi defectors, Wole Olajire said that their return to the mainstream progressive family was hinged on their decision to leave uncertainty for certainty, while declaring their unwavering allegiance to the party through active mobilization for the success of the party in 2026 and beyond.
The leader of the PDP defectors, Kareem Mubarak expressed his dissatisfaction with the ruling PDP for falling short of internal democracy and good governance, emphasizing that APC remains a party that prioritizes socioeconomic development and quality leadership that benefits all.
Also, a few weeks later, Moshood Adeoti — a former Secretary to Osun State Government, co-founder and Deputy Leader of Omoluabi Progressives — formally withdrew from the group and from all its political activities.
In a resignation letter, Adeoti cited “pressure from family” and a desire to “take a rest” from politics as reasons. He also acknowledged the investments he made building the group, making the decision “never an easy one.”
ADC: Omoluabi’s internal crisis
Members of the Omoluabi Group have been battling with displacement in their new political family. Reports surfaced that several local government chairmen in ADC accused the “Omoluabi faction” of causing division: they alleged the group was withholding registration materials, engaging in secret registration drives, and sidelining existing party executives across the state.
According to these chairmen, the group’s actions have “split the party into two in Osun,” raising alarm about a potential full-blown crisis.
Meanwhile, the group’s publicly stated position — via its publicity secretary — denies any internal crisis, calling the allegations “mischievous and unfounded,” and describing the ADC as “one indivisible and united party.”
Future of Aregbesola’s group in ADC
The mass defections and withdrawal of a founding member suggest weakening cohesion and trust within Omoluabi Progressives.
The infighting inside ADC could undermine the group’s ability to present a united front ahead of the upcoming election. There were accusations by several local government-level ADC chairmen that the “Omoluabi-faction” within ADC is causing division: allegedly withholding registration materials, doing secret registration drives, sidelining existing executives, effectively splitting the party in Osun into two.
This further heightens tensions between “old ADC structure” and incoming Omoluabi elements — internal power struggle; raises questions about the viability of the alliance.
With former loyalists returning to APC and some leaders opting out, the group may struggle to mobilize grassroots support — a big blow if it had ambitions of being a major “alternate” force.
The public war of narratives (denial of division vs allegations of internal sabotage) could damage the group’s credibility and scare off potential new recruits or allies.
Signals of growing discontent within Omoluabi’s ranks and weakening cohesion suggest APC remains attractive to many, possibly for reasons of political survival or convenience.
Loss of a senior founding figure, Adeoti, also undermines legitimacy and organizational loss of the group; internal morale is likely hit and loss of internal cohesion within the group. Losing foundational leadership often demoralizes remaining members, discourages new recruits, and complicates coordination.
For Omoluabi Progressives, the loss reduces bargaining power: both internally (within ADC) and externally (in negotiating alliances or presenting candidates).
As it stands, alliance with ADC looks fractured, and therefore risks becoming “faction within a faction”
This conflict means that ADC’s local cadre may distrust or resist Omoluabi elements.
As a result, even if Omoluabi insists on “unity,” on-the-ground coordination may remain weak or constrained.
For voters/grassroots, seeing the struggle — not just against external opponents, but internal infighting — could diminish appeal, making the alliance look opportunistic or unstable.
This will make the group’s new political party to reduce in negotiation/leverage power for the 2026 governorship contest in Osun.
Given the backdrop of upcoming elections (governorship in 2026), a politically fractured group entering as a weak alliance stands to lose:
Their ability to field credible candidates is hampered in the face of organizational disarray, defections, and an uncertain base.
Political pundits say that rival parties, especially their former home, APC, can use the narrative of “instability and betrayal” to woo remaining or wavering supporters.
Potential coalition partners may hesitate to align with them, fearing lack of cohesiveness or influence.
According to them, what once might have seemed like a disruptive third-force alternative now risks becoming marginalised.
They said that when a political group publicly denies troubles but evidence of defections and resignations accumulates — that contrast between narrative and reality can erode trust.
Moreover, being seen as “party-jumpers” or as a “splinter group chasing relevance” could reduce long-term viability. In Nigeria’s politics — where patronage, stability, and networks matter — unpredictability and evident fragmentation are liabilities.
What’s next for Aregbesola, associates?
They may attempt internal re-organization by recruiting new leaders, re-establish trust, rebuild base — but that requires time and resources, and the window before 2026 may be narrow.
They may negotiate reconciliation with APC (or another major party): essentially merging back or forming alliances under a stronger umbrella — but would require concessions and might dilute their identity.
The option of persisting with ADC may be considered. This will make the group to accept being a minority faction within a bigger party, and attempt incremental influence — but this risks marginalization if internal ADC hostility continues.
By and large, pundits say none of these options guarantee success; each carries trade-offs between identity, influence, and political survival.
