Category: Special Report

Social media – a collective term for interactive technologies and applications that enable users to create and share content as well as participate in social networking – is hugely popular among millions of active users in Nigeria. In this piece about how digital media is reshaping the game of politics in Nigeria, GBADE OGUNWALE digs into how and why frontline presidential candidates are whipping themselves into a frenzy as they jostle for the attention of the electorate ahead of next month’s race

The advent of social media has changed the way the human society used to interact in a number ways. It’s an era of digitisation that has continued to impact positively and negatively, depending on how the user chooses to leverage the new found-key to the outside world. Social media has risen to become a significant tool in Nigeria’s electoral politics since 2011, a revolution inspired by the election of Barack Obama by the Facebook generation in 2008. For many, the social media has become a way of life as it now provides a source of livelihood for millions of youths all over the world. Social media influencers are smiling to the bank daily with networking experts making a kill from the digital revolution. Existing social media platforms include Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest, Tik Tok, Snapchat, Quora, Blog, WhatsApp and many others.

With digitisation that comes with the social media, the various platforms are now in keen competition with traditional broadcast stations in terms of instantaneity of contents, with visual and audio accompaniments. Similarly, online publications have also been giving traditional newspapers a run for their money in the race to dominate the media space. In order not to be caught flat-footed, broadcast stations and newspapers have been forced to make incursion into the various social media platforms with their products and services. This has enabled them to reach a wider audience with their products and services for added business advantage.

In the Nigerian context, just like in other parts of the world, the social media has become a veritable tool for politicians to market themselves to the electorate. And with the election season here with us, Nigerian politicians have seized the various social media platforms to launch their campaigns. They are now fully aware that their electioneering campaigns cannot be effective without adequate presence in the various social media platforms.

 Last December, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) said the country’s internet subscribers rose to 152.71 million in October 2022. According to the data, the total number of active mobile internet subscribers increased to 152.15 million at the end of October 2022 – from 139 million recorded in October 2021. By implication, this means that the country’s mobile internet subscribers increased by 12.17 million within the last one year. Many mobile internet subscribers are active social media users.

 Consequently, contenders in the 2023 presidential race and their social media handlers have been engaging Nigerians and sharing their public statements on their various social media platforms. In the Nigerian context, campaign messages, both constructive and destructive, are shared mostly on WhatsApp, which is the most popular among Nigerians with millions of subscribers across the country.

 As the 2023 Nigeria’s general elections draw nearer, the media space is awash with a plethora of political messages. While some of these messages seek to brighten the chances of preferred candidates, others are targeted at diminishing rival candidates in the eyes of the public through smear campaigns. The social media has continued to sustain the most virulent and aggressive campaign on the 2023 presidential contest. More often, social media promoters tend to slant contents in favour of their preferred candidates; while exposing the weaknesses in opponents.

Obi

 In the upcoming election, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, is pushing hard on social media. Obi, who joined Twitter in October 2018, has been able to attract over 2.7 million on the micro blogging platform. His Facebook page has attracted 724, 981 followers. His visibility in the social media took an upward swing since he joined the presidential race mid-2022. He is more popular among social media users, especially the youth population. Supporters and influencers of the Labour Party candidate have been able to build a vast and intimidating social media structure to project his aspiration. Skit makers are having a field day creating hyperbolic contents that his critics say are way taller than the candidate himself. Most of the pro-Obi skits are fashioned to denigrate and diminish his opponents. For effect, the skits and contents are sometimes manipulated to make a caricature of the Labour Party’s major opponents in the presidential race. Obi is also reputed to maintain a lead in many social media opinion poll surveys conducted in recent times. This is expected because a sizeable chunk of his supporters is drawn from the youth population.

 Ironically, while this critical segment of the population exhibits strong presence in the social media, they are known to be ambivalent when it comes to actual voting. It’s been proven that many of these active young men and women on social media do not have Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) needed to exercise their civil responsibility. In a recent (albeit unscientific) survey of people with PVC conducted by a skit maker, a sum of N5,000 was being given to anyone who could show their PVC. It turned out that majority of those that won the prize money were market women who showed their PVCs on demand. Many of the young men and women of voting age captured in the survey and who expressed reference for Obi’s candidacy, did not register for PVC.

Tinubu

 The candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who joined Twitter in February 2012, has garnered over 1.6 million followers; while he is being followed by over 75, 000 people on Facebook. However, Tinubu’s social media promoters have continued to showcase his achievements during his eight years as governor of Lagos State. Also, his humanitarian gestures during his tenure as governor and after leaving office are being beamed to the world in visuals, audio and text. His Emilokan (it’s my turn) claim appears to be gaining more popularity by the day. Skit makers have crafted melodious remix with Emilokan to provide entertainment for social media users. Emilokan has now become a common slogan among Nigerians across the strata to depict divine blessing and intervention in their daily affairs. “It’s my turn to shine”, it’s my turn to be blessed”, it’s my turn to conquer”, you hear them say. Similarly, many Churches and worship places, especially the Pentecostal, have also caught the Emilokan bug. It’s now common place to see church banners announcing crusades and other activities with Emilokan as a theme. In a typical Nigerian fashion, Emilokan has now assumed religious and even spiritual dimensions. This positive has gone far beyond the imagination of the Emilokan exponent himself.

On the other hand, the APC candidate appears to be at the receiving end of social media attacks more than any other candidate in the presidential contest. Adjudged the most popular of the candidates with high prospects of winning the election, the attacks have been coming in torrents. Daily, the social media space gets splashed with disparaging skits, manipulated visuals, distorted facts and concocted documents all in a bid to diminish his electoral value. However, the Jagaban, as he is popular called by millions of his admirers, appears to have developed a thick skin against the vitriolic attacks. As far as the 2023 presidential election goes, Tinubu has become the big head that receives all the knocks. But as the saying goes, it’s pressure that makes the diamond much harder than stone. And while Obi commands a large social media following, Tinubu controls human structures built across the six geopolitical zones over the years.

Atiku

 Unlike the two contenders above, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, commands a huge social media followership. He leads other presidential contestants on Twitter and Facebook. Atiku, who joined Twitter in August 2010, has got over 4.7 million followers while over 1.2 million follow him on Facebook. Being a veteran contender in the presidential race, Atiku had registered his presence on the social media platforms long before other presidential candidates in the 2023 race. Presently, his two main social media foot soldiers – Reno Omokri and Deji Adeyanju – are still struggling with the task of de-marketing Atiku’s main opponents: LP’s Obi and APC’s Tinubu.

 It’s an irony, however, that despite his strong visibility in the social media, Atiku had, in a live television interview late last year, declared that “90 percent of our people are not on social media.” “Our people,” in that context, obviously referred to his part of the country: northern Nigeria. Like the APC candidate, the PDP candidate has also been getting a good measure of social media bashing. The “16 wasted years of his PDP” in the nation’s leadership saddle and the distasteful description of him by his erstwhile boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, have been a reference point. More than any other thing, the former vice president appears to be banking on ethnic sentiments for votes.

Many recall how he appealed to ethnic sentiments by telling a gathering of political stakeholders in Kaduna not to vote a Yoruba or Igbo candidate. His two main rivals: Tinubu is Yoruba, while Obi is Igbo. In the 2019 election circle, Atiku, who was then candidate of the PDP, maintained a lead in social outing and rating. The incumbent President, Muhammadu Buhari who sought re-election on the platform of the APC, was the butt of cruel jokes on social media at the time. Like what Tinubu is experiencing at the moment, Buhari never stood a hare’s chance on social media in the run up to the 2019 election. But as it were, Buhari won the real election; while Atiku ‘won’ on social media.

 The candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, is trailing far behind the other three contestants on social media. Kwankwaso joined Twitter in February 2018 and has 324, 000 followers with 61, 000 followers on Facebook. Kwankwaso has the largest chunk of his support base in the Northwest geopolitical zone, mainly in Kano state. Going by official records released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Kano State has the second highest number of registered voters for the 2023 elections. This contraction seems to lend credence to Atiku’s assertion that 90 percent of voters in the North are not on social media.

 Unlike his three co contestants, facts on the ground indicate that Kwankwaso may not have much electoral appeal outside his Northwest support base. It’s apparent that most of his supporters or people who may be inclined to vote for him are not necessarily on social media. This has not deterred the Kano strongman from pushing through the social media nevertheless. However, he appears to have fewer influencers in the social media than the three frontline contenders in the presidential race.

How new technology may define 2023 poll

With the new Electoral Act coming on stream, virtually all the political parties in the 2023 contest have been sounding optimistic about their chances. The expected deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), which enables electronic transmission of results from polling units, has raised hopes of transparency in the electoral process. With BVAS and electronic transmission of results in place, ballot snatching and ballot stuffing will become an exercise in futility. With BVAS, only those with authenticated PVCs will be eligible to vote, thus eliminating the use of incidence form through which elections are often rigged.

 Not only that. Those buying up and hoarding PVCs may also be labouring in vain. Electoral officials or agents of political parties who may wish to inflate voting figures at collation centres will be checkmated with electronic transmission of results from polling units. Perhaps the only window of exploitation open to political parties is vote buying. It’s a hushed transaction where voters sell their votes for a few naira notes, with desperate political party agents on hand to buy up loose consciences – a symbiotic and “mutually beneficial” black market transaction. For as long as there are vote sellers, vote buyers can’t be in short supply. Pundits have said it’s now left for the security agencies to track and identify operators in the illicit ballot trading and act appropriately.

 As a matter of fact, the introduction of BVAS and Electronic Transmission of results is not totally new to elections in the country. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deployed the technology in a number of off-season governorship elections in some states. The affected states included Ondo, Edo, Anambra, Ekiti and Osun states. Also, the technology was used in a number of by-elections and supplementary polls in a few states. In virtually all the instances, voters and parties had expressed satisfaction with the conduct of the elections; with vote buying and selling being the only sore points. What comes with digitilisation of the electoral process is that anyone can sit in the comfort of their homes and receive voting results right from the polling units. However, such results must be officially authenticated and certified by electoral officials on the ground. With assurances of non-interference from President Buhari, Nigerians and indeed the entire world can now sit back and look forward to free, fair, transparent and credible 2023 general elections. Will Buhari walk his talk and cement his democratic credential?

Amidst pomp and splendour, President Muhammadu Buhari begins his two-day visit to Lagos today for the inauguration of several development projects executed by Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu. In this special report, Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the significance of the monumental infrastructural projects to the economy and future development trajectory of the Centre of Excellence, in particular, and the country in general.

There will be no dull moment as President Muhammadu Buhari’s begins his two-day visit to Lagos today. It is a visit with a difference. The President is coming to attest to the wonders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) administration and how its people-friendly and life-changing policies and programmes have changed the face of the state.

Lagos has been fortunate to have good successors, who have successfully built on the foundation laid by former Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu, architect of modern Lagos, who is the APC presidential standard bearer. In the last three and half years, Governor Babaijde Sanwo-Olu has worked hard to sustain the progressive beat, despite the constraints and distractions. The #ENDSARS protest exceeded the bars and Lagos became the epic-centre of COVID-19, the global pestilence that sparked much anxiety.

The governor has made his mark across the sectors. The administration has carried out a lot of reforms. Also, Sanwo-Olu has fostered inclusion and presided over a largely peaceful, heterogeneous state where no resident suffers marginalisation on account of ethnic, religious and political leanings. President Buhari’s visit, the first official state visit, is also historic. The Commander-in-Chief had presided over the country from Lagos before as military Head of State when it was the federal capital. Also, Lagosians were emotionally attached to his ambition in 2015 and his 2019 re-election bid. Therefore, Buhari is visiting the most vibrant APC state chapter, Tinubu’s base that has maintained utmost fidelity to the national progressive family.

It is another home-coming for the leader who has served Nigeria in Lagos as military secretary and Federal Commissioner for Petroleum. For the two days, he may be seized by nostalgia as he savours Lagos hospitality. The President is visiting a state that would have accomplished more as the economic nerve-centre, if it has been accorded a special status.

Buhari will inaugurate projects that are products of the 24-year development plan initiated by Tinubu over two decades ago, a template that his worthy successors have tried to sustain. The President will meet a metropolis that had undergone drastic changes. Lagos has become more electrifying due to its growth and expansion, its economic potentials, the investments it has attracted, the Atlantic City project, the huge construction sites, housing projects, educational expansion and its conducive atmosphere.

It is better to show the documentary of Sanwo-Olu’s numerous developmental projects to the President, as time constraints may not permit him to inspect many of them. The projects cut across the five divisions of Lagos, Ikeja, Ikorodu, Epe and Badagry, and the three senatorial districts.

At a press conference at the weekend, Information and Strategy Commissioner, Gbenga Omotoso, highlighted some of the projects, which will make the president’s visit historic and memorable. The projects are the Lekki Deep Sea Port, a symbol of a good working relationship between the public and private sectors; the 32-metric tons per hour Lagos Rice Mill, one of the largest in the world; the 18.75-kilometer six-lane rigid-pavement Eleko Junction to Epe Expressway; the John Randle Centre for Yoruba Culture and History and the iconic Lagos Blue Line rail project. Also, President Buhari will be inaugurating a private sector project, MRS Lubricant factory, in Apapa. “To this end, we have tagged President Muhammadu Buhari’s visit to Lagos ‘A Festival of Project Commissioning,’” he said.

After receiving the President at the Muritala Mohammed Airport, Ikeja, Governor Sanwo-Olu will lead him   to the Lekki Deep Sea Port for the official inauguration of the largest sea port in sub-Saharan Africa. Buhari and his host will be received at the Lekki Deep Sea Port by top government functionaries and board members of the Lekki Deep Sea Port. There will be a tour of the facility by the dignitaries. The Lekki Deep Sea Port will boost the oceanic economy. It was conceptualised on the basis of a significant gap in projected demand and capacity for containers, which is expected to grow significantly up to 2025. The port will become one of the largest deep-water ports in West Africa. The strategic location, flexible and optimised layout, and modern facilities give Lekki Port a competitive edge over any other port in West Africa.

The project enjoys a development structure that is the first of its kind in Nigeria. It is one of the single largest private investments in infrastructure in Nigeria. The port is expected to contribute significant economic benefits of more than $200 billion to the government treasury and create 170,000 jobs. The port will significantly increase the container throughput capacity of the western Nigerian port complex (container throughput capacity is the estimated capacity of a dock to clear containers in a year). The facility is expected to promote infrastructure growth in Africa through the construction of highways, railways and aviation networks.

The President is expected to drive through and inaugurate the newly constructed Eleko Junction/Epe road project before departing for the Lagos Rice Mill in Imota. He will take a tour of the Rice Mill, a solid testimony to the Lagos State Government’s readiness to bridge the deficit in local rice production.  Lagos needs federal attention. President Buhari will see first-hand the federal road deficit, particularly along Ikorodu-Itamaga-Imota. The Eleko/Epe Road is a 49.5-kilometre (30.8 mi) expressway connecting the Lekki and Epe districts. It was first built in the 1980s during the Lateef Jakande’s administration.

The road project is based on Public-Private Partnership (PPP) under the Design, Build, Operate (DBOT), and Transfer and Rehabilitate, Operate (ROT) framework/business model.

The reconstruction of the Lekki-Epe Expressway (Eleko to Epe T-junction) was started by the administration of Governor Sanwo-Olu. The first phase of the expansion on the Lekki-Epe Expressway was flagged off by Governor Sanwo-Olu in November 2021, kick-starting the rehabilitation of the 40-year-old infrastructure. The 2nd Phase of the Project stretches 26.7 km, which is ‘Eleko Junction to Abraham Adesanya junction in Eti -Osa axis has started.

The agricultural plant located in Imota, Ikorodu Division, is a 32-ton per hour facility with associated infrastructure and services. It is an integrated mill with two warehouses and 16 silos (each with a capacity of 2,500 tonnes, 25 metres high, 40-year life). The mill operates in two lines that receive, pre-clean, boil, dry, sort, hull, polish and bag the rice. The plant was built in 2021 and will commence full production in the second quarter of 2022. The rice mill has a capacity to produce 2.8 million bags of 50kg bags of rice yearly; while generating 1,500 direct jobs and 254,000 indirect jobs. On completion, in line with the estimated installed infrastructure of the facility, the production capacity of the rice mill in Imota will set it among the largest in the world, and the largest in sub-Saharan Africa.

After his return from the ancient town of Imota, the traditional territory of the Ranodu, Oba Ajibade Agoro, the Commandant-in-Chief will be hosted to a state banquet being organised in his honour. It will be characterised by musical performances and other forms of entertainment. Tomorrow, the President will inaugurate the MRS Lubricant factory, a private sector project in Apapa. According to Omotoso, Mr President will depart Apapa for the John Randle Centre for Yoruba Culture and History for its inauguration. He will take a tour of the Museum. “The John Randle Museum, a bold attempt to curate our history and culture, will afford the President an opportunity to interact with art enthusiasts, curators, historians and academia, and students who have been invited to the programme,” he said.

After that, Buhari will move to the Lagos Blue Line Rail Project in Marina, where different activities have been lined up for him. It is ironic. The military government of Buhari had stopped the light train project initiated by the Jakande administration in the Second Republic due to misinformation by top civil servants. At the Blue Line Terminal, he will witness the signing of the second phase of the rail project, from Mile 2 to Okokomaiko. He will also commission the Phase I and take a train ride from Marina to Mile 2 and back, and depart  Lagos.

The Blue Rail mass transit line is a 27km project spanning Marina, Iganmu, Mile 2, Alaba and Okokomaiko. Five stations have been completed, with 13km of the rail tracks laid in the first phase. The first phase is a 13-kilometre stretch from Marina to Mile 2 and has five stations at Mile 2, Suru-Alaba, Orile Iganmu, National Theatre and Marina. This first phase will transport 250,000 passengers daily and, when completed, the entire 27km will transport about 500,000 passengers daily.

Each train comprises four coaches and each coach can take up to 180 passengers conveniently. The entire Blue Line will operate over a secure and exclusive right of way, with no?level crossings?and no uncontrolled access by pedestrians or vehicles. It has its own dedicated power supply. It is the first in Africa to be built across the Sea. “All events will be broadcast live across several television and radio stations. All activities will be streamed live on different social media platforms,” Omotoso added.

The John Randle Centre for Yoruba Culture and History (JRCYCH) is very significant. It forms part of an urban regeneration project at the heart of Lagos Island, a part of the city steeped in rich history. The project seeks to restore a public swimming pool built in 1928 with updated facilities, and to create a centrepiece community building with a 1,000 square-metre exhibition gallery that tells the story of Yoruba history and culture through a journey from its origins, through present day, to the future.

The JRCYCH is expected to engage the public with the richness of Yoruba culture and history; its impact through art, music, religion, language; its reach around the world through popular culture; and its significance in leaving a legacy for future generations. It will be an unparalleled experience in Lagos – a ground-breaking cultural attraction that will reveal to visitors the time-honoured story of Yoruba ethnicity – one of the most influential ethnicities in Nigeria.

Also, Yoruba experts and novices alike will be able to dive deep into the stories, myths and traditions of Yoruba heritage, encountering immersive experiences from the dynamism of Yoruba festivals to the rich visual culture of Yoruba history and ancestry. The centre will stand out as the first cultural centre of its kind in Lagos. As distinct from a museum, it will provide a flexible, updateable space for learning programmes, art installations and live music events. Visitors will be thrilled, inspired and intrigued by the stories the JRCYCH has to offer, regardless of their ethnicity.

The Lagos State APC, in a statement, by Chairman, Cornelius Ojelabi, and Publicity Secretary, Seye Oladejo, said Sanwo-Olu’s enduring legacies are worth celebrating. “We welcome the President to the most vibrant APC state chapter and Centre of Excellence for the commissioning of people-oriented and life-changing projects implemented by the dynamic, visionary and hardworking Governor Sanwo-Olu.

“These developmental projects, which are evenly distributed across the three senatorial districts, underscore the fulfilment of APC campaign promises and yearnings of Lagosians for greater dividends of democracy. These achievements have re-affirmed Lagos as a reference point in progressive policies and programmes, and rekindled hope about a much brighter future under a progressive administration that accords priority to the vision of mega city and prosperity,” the statement said. While noting that Lagosians cherish APC, the party officials assured that “the government and the ruling party will not let the people down.”

As the governorship election draws nearer, several major political parties in Katsina State are currently in the communities and villages, wooing the support of voters with promises and attractive programmes. AUGUSTINE OKEZIE examines the strengths and weaknesses of four frontline parties and the chances of their candidates in the forthcoming governorship election

As the countdown to the 2023 general election in Katsina State draw nearer, only four governorship candidates appear to stand out in the crowded race of 13 candidates. They are Dikko Radda of All Progressives Congress (APC), Yakubu Lado Danmarke of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Imran Jino of the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), and Mohammed Khalil of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).

The chances of APC’s Radda

In Kastina State, President Muhammad Buhari’s influence is still looming large in the state for the ruling APC, going by his political aura and image as the son of the soil, which several political pundits believe can almost effortlessly earn the APC the needed votes to clinch victory in the governorship race. The President had assured the party in the state and in the entire nation of the needed support to retain power in 2023.

 Is APC reaping from the PDP crisis? The emerging political scenario in Katsina State, particularly the crisis that has engulfed the state chapter of the PDP, has left the biggest opposition party in tatters. The question on the lips of several political watchers in the state, therefore, is whether the APC is set to benefit from the current crisis rocking the PDP. Though several leaders of the PDP have denied the existence of any rift in the party, a House of Reps aspirant and former chairman of the party, Yusuf Majigiri still insists there exists the Ibrahim Shema faction of the party in the state

There is a split of the chairmanship position between the camp of ex-Governor Shema and a former Secretary to the State Government, Mustapha Inuwa. This crisis of mistrust has posed a potential threat to the party’s gubernatorial candidate, Lado Danmarke, in the coming elections and has heightened expectations on the possible emergence of a victorious APC. Political watchers are presently adjusting their calculations in the belief that if the situation persists in the PDP, the APC candidate may be coasting home to victory.

 Investigation by The Nation revealed that Shema and Inuwa, a former APC chieftain, were not on good terms over a series of litigations and irreconcilable interests. Since the defection of Inuwa from APC to PDP, the old wounds seem to have been reopened. These differences have birthed fresh animosity and rift. Inuwa is considered to be one of the most influential politicians in Katsina politics. He joined PDP with added value, but Shema isn’t prepared to allow him to hijack the party’s structure in the state. The former Katsina governor seems not to be comfortable with the presence of Inuwa in the PDP. This has resulted in the current friction. If nothing is done urgently, the chance of the PDP winning Katsina in 2023 is slim.

 To further confirm the tension in PDP, it was alleged that Shema, a few days ago, secretly had a meeting with APC’s Radda in Kaduna and discussed extensively the recent happening in the state, vis-a-vis their interests. Though the outcome of the Kaduna meeting was sketchy, APC may benefit from the stress in the PDP. As discussions on the possible alignment against the PDP are ongoing, the thriving influence and acceptability of Radda of APC have continued to reduce the chances of the opposition parties in Katsina State.

 Out the 13 gubernatorial candidates contesting the seat, Radda appears to be leading, considering his political experience and persuasive rhetoric in attracting the attention of the elites, youths and women who are now backing him. Already, some political parties appear jittery and others have begun to lose confidence in the 2023 gubernatorial poll due to the uncommon wave Radda is lately making in the state. The governorship candidate of APC in Katsina State, Dikko Radda, has been touring several communities even at the ward levels as well as the door-to-door approach.

 The door-to-door approach at the ward levels appeared to have paid off handsomely as it afforded him the opportunity to visit people in their homes for dinner, unfold some of his agendas including a pledge to drive public service reforms, empower the people economically and ensure security and accountability when elected as governor. Radda, in a chat with The Nation in Funtua during his campaign tour of Katsina South, declared fighting insecurity has his priority number one immediate he was sworn in as governor. He also assured of his determination to carry out service reforms and ensure things are done in the right way and manner if elected.

 He said: “It is mostly the poor that needed our attention to provide them equal opportunities and better living conditions. We shall integrate western education into Qur’an schools, build social care centres to cater for the displaced, take census of the needy and give them assistance. We will draw support from multinational agencies.’’

Crisis-ridden PDP and the 2023 governorship contest

The PDP crisis in Katsina deteriorated when some officials loyal to the governorship candidate, Danmarke, met in Kano and removed the party’s chairman, Salisu Yusuf Magijiri and his deputy, Salisu Lawal Uli, over alleged loss of confidence and trust. The officials allegedly aligned themselves with 24 council chairmen, 13 House of Reps and two senatorial candidates of the party to plot the removal of the chairman and his deputy. They then ordained the Daura Zonal Vice Chairman of the party, Lawal Magaji, as acting chairman.

 A letter signed by the state secretary of the party, Sanusi Ali, and addressed to the PDP National Working Committee (NWC), indicted Majigiri and his deputy, Uli, of breaching section 58 subsection (i), (d), (f) and (h) of the party’s constitution as amended in 2017. But Majigiri, while reacting to the allegations, said he had already handed over the affairs of the party to the vice, Uli, since he picked the Mashi/ Dutsi federal constituency ticket of the party. He said he saw no reason for issuing what he described as mischief. And barely a few days after, the acting chairman, Uli, in a letter addressed to the National Chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, announced the lifting of the suspension of the gubernatorial candidate, Danmarke, who he sanctioned during the crisis.

What is happening to the PDP in Katsina State could be described as a melodrama characterised by a lot of confusing scenes that may put the party on the fence, thus allowing APC to consolidate itself in power. The PDP’s late campaign start-off is seen by many political observers as a sign of the growing rift in the party, which several leaders within the party hierarchy are struggling to cover up. It is indeed a tough moment for the PDP in the state. Shema and his loyalists are resisting Inuwa from becoming the party’s leader. On the other hand, the governorship candidate, Danmarke, and his loyalists prefer Inuwa. While the PDP is slowly trying to catch up with the tempo of campaign of the APC, the ruling party is presently rounding off its campaign of the 34 local government areas in the sate

 At a recent campaign tour, the governorship candidate of the PDP in Katsina State, Sen. Danmarke, declared that only strong support and vote for the opposition party ahead of next month’s general elections can save the state from the prevailing socio-economic challenges confronting it. Danmarke, who made the declaration at the party’s campaign rally in Mai’adua, also disclosed that the cardinal focus and programmes of the ruling APC in the state is regrettable and that time has come for the electorate in Katsina State to let APC realise that it has not fulfilled its promises to them.

He lamented that the APC government had failed in reviving the economy, fighting insecurity, hunger and poverty, insisting further that the present administration’s misrule had been inflicting untold hardships on the people by retarding the progress they attained during 16 years of PDP rule. He said: “The state’s socio-economic development would rebound under PDP administration under my five-point agenda of solution to its challenges. The closure of the international border in Katsina and parts of the country by the current administration has shown economic and security system failure.’’

 In his remarks, the Director-General of the Katsina PDP presidential and governorship campaign council, Dr. Mustapha Inuwa, who received new decampees into the party, urged all Nigerians to vote for the PDP as an act of patriotism to rescue the country from bad governance.

The NNPP’s chances in the race

The NNPP represents another emerging political platform in Katsina State. But the party may not be able to secure victory at the forthcoming polls. The governorship candidate, Mohammed Khalil, has declared the state technically bankrupt. He said it requires the total commitment of the incoming government to revive it. Khalil, who made the above declaration in Katsina while interacting with newsmen after meeting party officials from the 34 local government areas of the state as part of his preparations for campaign flag-off, attributed the economic problems facing the state to mismanagement of resources by successive governments.

 He said: “Once I am sworn in as the state governor, I will invite investors from both within and outside Nigeria to assist in developing the state. My administration will focus on security, agriculture, education and infrastructural development to ensure the development of the state. Technically, our state is bankrupt due to mismanagement of resources by governments. Our incoming administration has, however, taken this as a challenge and would do everything within our reach to revamp the state.

 “It is not about rescuing power but rescuing the people of Katsina State. Everybody knows what is happening around the country, not only Katsina State, especially in terms of security, education, youth and women empowerment and other developments. So, we are here to give our quota to rescue the state, not rescue power. Power is not our main aim but to rescue the people. We have seven-goal development: security, education, human development and so forth. But most importantly is security because without security, there is nothing that can happen anywhere; not only Katsina State. The motivation is just to rescue my people because we cannot remain the way we are. Everybody knows what is happening in the state. We cannot deceive ourselves and lie to ourselves that everything is going on well.”

The chances of PRP

The campaign strategy adopted by the Peoples Redemption Party in Katsina State appears a complete departure from that of other parties, especially the APC and PDP. The governorship candidate of the party, Imran Jini, told The Nation at the launching of his political blueprint in Katsina that the party prefers community approach, engagement of campaign renewal and talking directly with the people rather than what he called the noising making and drumming of other parties

He said, “We are engaging the people directly through the radio, reaching out to the youths through social media, through optimisation and leveraging volunteers and supporters. We also operate an influential data base technology to reach out to the voters also.” The aspirant assured that tackling insecurity will be his first priority when he is sworn as governor; other priorities include economic empowerment, agriculture and food security.

Besides her astuteness and grassroots prowess, Senator Aishatu Ahmed Binani, Adamawa State governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), parades an intimidating political credential: House of Reps member between 2011 and 2015 before her election into the upper legislative chamber from Adamawa Central District from 2019 to date. In the report, ONIMISI ALAO digs into the complex political undercurrents that may tilt the outcome of the state’s governorship poll in her favour

After flagging off her campaign in the state capital on January 9, the governorship candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC) in Adamawa State, Senator Aishatu Ahmed Binani, started her community-to-community campaign on Monday January 16. Following the inaugural campaign in Yola, which went side by side with inauguration of the APC presidential campaign in the state and was consequently attended by President Muhammadu Buhari and the party’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, Binani was in Ganye and then Toungo in what marked the beginning of her grassroots campaign effort.

 She was scheduled to stop in Ganye and see the paramount ruler in the town and then proceed to Toungo for an open air campaign and then return to Ganye where the campaign continued on January 17. The two towns, which are headquarters of Ganye and Toungo LGAs respectively, lie in the southern tip of Adamawa State, next to the Republic of Cameroon. In choosing to start her campaign from southern Adamawa, Binani apparently seeks to get over her toughest terrain, as the zone has always been mostly for the ruling party in the state, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

 The zone is the largest, with nine of the state’s 21 local government areas, with Toungo, Jada, Numan, Demsa, Lamurde, and Guyuk always favouring the PDP. The votes of Mayo-Belwa have in recent times been often deflected to the APC by the Nyako dynasty, currently represented by former Governor Murtala Nyako and his son, Senator Abdulaziz Nyako, who will be expected to be a huge help for Binani in the area as her campaign begins.

 For Ganye, House of Representatives member, Abdulrazak Namdas, who has done much for himself in recent history, becoming a high flying governorship candidate of the APC towards the APC primary election that Binani won, has also done the APC a lot of good in the area, becoming a major reason why APC has been doing well for its candidates there. Namdas, unlike one of his other fellow governorship aspirants, Nuhu Ribadu, who went to court to protest Binani’s ticket and was going to have it revoked until the Court of Appeal ruled otherwise, Namdas was quick in putting the primary behind him and seeking support for Binani. And he was on Binani’s large entourage when she arrived Ganye in the evening of her campaign.

 Jada LGA, on the other hand, is most unlikely to be for her. This is the home local government area of PDP Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. And he is a son of the soil in whom the people are proud. Chairman of the Jada LGA, Alhaji Mohammed So’o, who had occasion recently to address the issue of Atiku’s popularity, said all of Jada is him, stressing that Jada people would vote Atiku from across party lines.

 Atiku’s influence is thus likely to deprive Binani of votes in Jada in favour of Atiku’s political son and party man, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri. Still in Adamawa South Senatorial Zone, Lamurde the home LGA of deputy governor Crowther Seth, and Numan the birth place for Governor Ahmadu Fintiri’s running mate for the March 11 governorship election, Kaletapwa Farauta are not favourites for Binani. The LGAs are traditionally PDP apart from the personalities mentioned.

 Demsa and Guyuk have similarly embraced PDP in precious elections. So, all things remaining equal, Bunani will have a hard time winning the most votes there. It is difficult to guess what will happen in some of the five LGAs in Adamawa North senatorial zone, but the central zone is expected to be mostly for Binani. For Adamawa North, Madagali where Governor Fintiri hails from will most certainly go to him, and very likely Michika, the immediate neighbouring LGA.

 Mubi North, Mubi South and Maiha are the other three of the five-LGA northern Adamawa, and these three could go either way of the two major candidates: Binani and Fintiri. Coming to Adamawa Central: Yola South, Yola North, Fufore, Girei, Song, Gombi and Hong, Binani should have her best chances here. She is Yola South by birth and has her residence, where she lodges each time she is in the state, in Yola Town, the council headquarters.

 Besides, she has had either part of or all of central Adamawa as her constituency since coming into active politics. She was the member in the House of Representatives from Yola South, Yola North and Girei LGAs between 2011 and 2015; and then the Senator in the National Assembly from Adamawa Central District from 2019 to date.

She is quite popular among her constituents, having been judged by a huge number of them to have cared for them in the years she has been at NASS through provision of empowerment perks for many individuals and social amenities for many communities. In the entire central zone, her battle may be hard only in Hong and Gombi, which have tended in the past to go for anything PDP.

 Still about her chances, all the foregoing is as it applies to history. Anything can happen come March 11. Binani has proven to have a fighting spirit underrated by even those who think they know her. Easily the best proof of this was last May when she defeated otherwise highly promising individuals, men of no small fame and means, to pick the APC governorship ticket that she holds today. In that APC governorship primary were immediate past governor of the state, Senator Jibrilla Bindow; pioneer EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu; top-rated House of Representatives member, Abdulrazak Namdas; and immediate past state secretary of the APC, Wafari Theman. Binani, the only woman in that contest, defeated the men to become the governorship ticket holder of a major political party.

 She had confessed days later that to do so well against men of note, she had leveraged on APC’s decision to have so many women as delegates. She said she had appealed to the woman in the women to give her their votes and that it worked. The APC had drawn five primary delegates, two of them women, from each of Adamawa’s 226 wards. That meant that altogether, 452 women voted in that primary election. Binani had polled 430 votes, while her closest rival Nuhu Ribadu got 288, with 103 votes going to Bindow and 94 to Namdas.

 As the governorship election nears, Binani is expected to once again appeal specifically for support from her women folk. The ruling PDP was quick in reckoning with this. Not long after she picked the APC ticket, Governor Fintiri who picked the PDP ticket about the same time, went for the women folk in search of his running mate, subsequently announcing a university administrator, the Vice Chancellor of the Adamawa State University Mubi, Prof Kaletapwa Farauta, to run with him. It remains to be seen how this may impact on Binani come March 11.

 What remains clear is this: Adamawa State is not new to women aspiring for high positions and getting such positions. Before Binani became House of Representatives member and then Senator, women from the state had attained such positions in recent past. Senator Binta Masi readily comes to the mind. Binta had moved from being a House of Reps member in 2011-2015 to being state chairman of the APC and then to being Senator (for Adamawa North) from 2015 to 2019. Senator Grace Bent had also been Senator representing southern Adamawa between 2007 and 2011.

 So, talking about acceptance of women office seekers in Adamawa State, if Binani gets elected in March to become Nigeria’s first elected governor, it will not be such a huge surprise to the state. Both President Muhammadu Buhari and Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, at the combined Presidential/Governorship campaign flagoff in Yola last week, were optimistic that Adamawa will indeed make history by producing the country’s first Madam Governor.

 Buhari had said, “Let me remind you of the good fortune that is awaiting your state in 2023 after returning the APC to power at the federal level and electing the party’s candidate as your incoming governor. You have been given the opportunity to set a record in the history of Nigeria and the annals of democracy and politics in our country by electing the first-ever female chief executive of a state in Nigeria.”

 Speaking similarly, Tinubu referred to Binani as the next Adamawa State governor and Nigeria’s first female governor. “Today, you are about to send the first woman governor to the State House,” Tinubu told the APC supporters, charging them to go ahead and do that when the governorship election comes up on March 11.

All said, a reality that is evident to every Adamawa resident as well as observers of trends in the state is that the struggle to be the next Adamawa governor is clearly between the incumbent Governor, Ahmadu Fintiri, and the hard fighting APC candidate, Aishatu Binani. And nobody can say with any measure of certainty right now who between the two will make it to the Government House, Yola

Decades ago, America’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) began work on a scientific breakthrough that only became a reality on December 5, 2022. That day, a team at LLNL’s National Ignition Facility (NIF) produced more energy from fusion than the laser energy used to drive it. This development, which promises to radically change power generation capacity, among other things, was made public on December 13, 2022 by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). United States Bureau Chief OLUKOREDE YISHAU, who was part of a briefing on the breakthrough, breaks down this potential path to a fusion power energy plant which can staggeringly alter for good America’s one trillion watts electricity generation capacity.

As the Programme Director for the Weapon Physics and Design (WPD) Programme at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Mark Herrmann is one of exceptional thousands of people behind a major scientific breakthrough that is a potential path to a fusion power energy plant capable of seeing America multiplying its one trillion watts electricity generation capacity to 500 trillion watts. Herrmann, who leads LLNL’s weapon science research and development, including focused experiments, integral hydrodynamic and subcritical experiments, high-energy-density (HED) experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), was guest at a briefing organised by the Department of State Foreign Press Center on the import of the breakthrough.

Herrmann said an experiment on December 5th, 2022, on the National Ignition Facility exceeded the threshold for fusion ignition. “The amount of energy that was released by fusion was greater than the amount of energy we put in, demonstrating that fusion is – in the laboratory is a possibility for generating very extreme environments and potentially someday generating more energy out than goes in, and a potential path to a fusion power energy plant,” he said.

The NIF laser with 192 beams, he said, can generate about 500 trillion watts of power. “So you’re used to power in terms of 100 watt lightbulb, or we can talk about the electrical generating capacity of the United States. It’s about 1 trillion watts. So at any point in time, all the electricity from all the power plants in the U.S. is about 1 trillion watts. So this laser generates 500 times that and deposits it into that little tiny target, but it only does it for a very short amount of time – four billionths of a second.

“And when the laser goes into that target, it heats it up to a few million degrees. But that’s not extreme enough to create the fusion conditions. In fact, we have to squeeze that fusion fuel up and reach temperatures; in this experiment, we reached temperatures as high as 130 million degrees – so very, very high temperatures. The plasma gets very small; it’s about the size of a human hair at the most extreme conditions. And when we – in this experiment, the fusion reactions took place in about one-tenth of a billionth of a second. So – and the power that was generated, the fusion power that was generated, is greater than 30,000 trillion watts. So much more than the power that was generated by the laser, very extreme,” he said.

Putting it in perspective

According to Herrmann, the sunshine hitting the Earth at one point in time is about 170,000 trillion watts. “So for a tiny amount of time, this little thing the size of a human hair in our laboratory generated about a fifth the power of all the sunlight hitting the Earth. So it’s incredible extreme conditions. Of course, we generate those and study those because that is the same level of energy and power that’s operating in our nuclear weapons.”

Work on the breakthrough, he said, started in the 1950s with the first ideas, and shortly thereafter the laser was invented in 1960. The laboratory then began building a series of bigger lasers to try and achieve the extreme conditions required to do fusion ignition.  “Along the way, we were maintaining our nuclear deterrent through the 1990s with underground nuclear weapons testing to maintain the confidence in our deterrent. But in 1992, we made the decision to stop our underground nuclear weapons testing and we stood up something we call the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program to maintain our deterrent and our confidence in it without the need for further underground testing. And that involved capability – development of capabilities like high-performance computers, experimental testing facilities, including building the National Ignition Facility, which allows us to access those extreme regimes that are found in nuclear weapons.

“Along the way, we did many different scientific experiments. NIF has done almost 4,000 different experiments and across many fields of science. It’s not just fusion. We study the behaviour of material at very high pressures and temperatures. We study the transport of radiation in complicated geometries. There are many different elements of physics we study with the NIF, and there are almost a thousand scientific publications that have been published,” Herrmann explained.

This breakthrough, according to him, has a potential to be a carbon-free baseload energy source for humanity.  “And right now, having more approaches, different ways of being able to provide carbon-free baseload energy in the future is something that would be great to have. We don’t have just one silver bullet that’s going to solve what our long-term energy – carbon-free energy needs are for the planet and so this is one possible approach to that.”

Implications

Herrmann explained that the fusion has implications for energy security, national security and science. “Now, sometimes people look at it and say, well – and again, this was an experiment supporting our nuclear deterrent, but it does have implications for energy security if you could turn it into an energy plant. Some people look at it and say this is about national security, but it’s also about science, right, so it’s really about all of these things. It’s actually what makes in my mind fusion such an interesting thing to study because it has implications for all these different areas and certainly why we’ve been working on it for so long – why it’s been such a long-term goal for our laboratory. So I think it’s a – it’s one of those things that it’s not just one or the other, but it touches on all of these things.”

He added that there are concerns about how to pursue energy based on this. “This is something actually that the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has studied. There was a report released in 2013, looking at both what research programmes should be done in inertial fusion energy. And what they said at that time is that the time for really pursuing that would be after fusion ignition was achieved, and obviously we’ve achieved that. So that’s something that – that report is very relevant to where we are today in terms of pursuing inertial fusion as an energy source.”

Applications of this important breakthrough in the development of weapons and defense systems

Herrmann said the programme is committed to the responsibility of maintaining nuclear deterrent without using underground nuclear weapons testing. “And we haven’t done an underground nuclear weapons test for almost 30 years. But nuclear weapons are complicated, and we – when we stopped our underground nuclear weapons testing, we didn’t understand all the elements that go in – that go into it,” he said, adding: “And so we’ve been embarking on a programme for this entire time to understand the science of our nuclear weapons so that we can maintain them so that as they age, we understand how we have to respond to things we find as the weapons are aging, as we currently are modernizing our nuclear deterrent so that it will be safe, secure, effective, and reliable into the foreseeable future. And these fusion experiments allow us to create the very extreme conditions that allow us to really understand all the elements of the science that are going on in our nuclear weapons. So it’s a key advance in enabling us to maintain our deterrent.”

The progrmme, he said, does about 400 experiments a year. About 20 of them, he added, are experiments of this type. Herrmann said: “We’re working right now on how do we incorporate what we’ve learned from this experiment to both repeat this experiment but be – go beyond it. We have plans to make the laser even more energetic. We have plans to make the little targets that the laser hits even better. And we want to really explore how do we get even more energy out than the three megajoules – can we get five or 10 megajoules out, which the more we get out, the more extreme the conditions, the better the fidelity of the experiments we’re doing. We also want to understand how do we make it easier, right – if you were ever going to do energy, you’d like to not have to build a laser the size of three football fields. So how – if we could really understand it, once you have a tool and it’s working, then you can think about oh, can I take a shortcut here, can I take a shortcut there. How do I drop the requirements and make it easier to do, right, so that’s another thing that we’re trying to do. And then we’re using the output – this tremendous blast of X-rays and neutrons that come from these experiments – to study their interaction with materials for our nuclear weapons applications. So we also are going to use the output of this to do further studies as well.”

The side effects of this breakthrough

Herrmann said every fusion system needs to be handled with care. “When this blast is taking place, people have to be far away. We have a – we have a facility and we have the doors and things like that that we have to close, and we keep people out of it, and we have to wait for a period of time before we go back into it. So we’re very careful about that. Safety is a very important consideration.

“People have looked at fusion and the potential it may have for proliferation. We think that the concerns associated with that, that’s something that was studied before we built the National Ignition Facility to make sure that any concerns along the lines of proliferation were manageable. I mean, the main concern is that fusion neutrons are very energetic and so they could be used to convert uranium into plutonium. And so, but that would be managed if you had a fusion energy economy, and that’s something that the IAEA and other agencies are thinking about.

“I think – I’ve seen – again, we’re many decades away from putting power on the grid with this approach, but if you did have a lot more energy available to you, that could be good because we think that the biggest determination of how – the more energy that – there’s a strong correlation between energy usage and GDP per capita and people’s standards of living, so that’s a good thing if we could generate more energy. But having unlimited energy may not be a great thing in terms of what the implications would be for the environment and things like that. Again, I’d say we’re a long way away from that, but it’s something that people are thinking about as they work to develop fusion as an energy system,” he explained.

Working with other labs internationally

No nation or organisation knows it all so the American lab has collaborators in the atomic weapons establishment in the UK and the CEA in France. “In fact, France is building a facility that’s similar to our National Ignition Facility called the Laser Mégajoule. So we have strong collaboration there centered around our defense missions. But we also have university collaborators at institutions around the world who are interested in the very extreme environments that can be created in our laboratory, so we work with universities and labs all over the world,” he said.

The year 2023 promises to be interesting. Barely recovering from COVID-19 to diving straight into the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the global economy has one big issue to contend with: skyrocketing inflation. How will Nigeria cope with a looming global recession and the threat of corresponding inflation? How will the country survive its economic crisis in a year that promises to witness humongous election spending? Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA asks

If predictions by some economic pundits are anything to go by, 2023 may be a very tough year for Nigerians. This is so because several factors will play out to shape economic and political narratives this year. These include inflation, issues around debt, revenue accretions, funding of small, medium enterprises (SMEs) on the one hand and the recovery of COVID-19 loans to indigent Nigerians on the other, among other issues that will definitely play out in the year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Fitch have predicted a difficult 2023. The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has predicted that 2023 will be tougher than 2022. “We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession. Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like a recession for hundreds of millions of people,” she said.

The reason for her prediction is that “the three big economies – the United States of America (USA), the European Union (EU) and China – are all slowing down simultaneously.” Concerning Nigeria, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research report predicted that the “Nigerian economy will continue to slump in 2023 due to activities leading to the general elections, but would likely pick in 2024, with growth rising to 3.3 per cent.”

This year, Nigeria will most likely come to terms with the sobering reality that its days as a major oil player are in their twilight. Having failed to reap the benefits of the oil windfall that other oil-producing countries enjoyed because of oil theft and the scandalous petrol subsidy, it will take a near miracle for the Buhari administration and the one that will come after it to build back the trust deficit the country suffers in the oil and gas sector. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will also try to fight inflation, but as its last three Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decisions have suggested, it is unlikely it stray too far from the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Fiscal imperatives

Fiscal authorities have dropped the ball several times. They have boxed the system into a debt trap, which will have the incoming government grappling with an N77 trillion debt burden from the first day in office. To address the debt crisis, both the Buhari administration and the incoming government will have to be smart about generating revenue to mitigate the debt crisis.

While the Debt Management Office (DMO) has been assuring Nigerians that the country’s total debt portfolio is within the acceptable threshold, many ordinary Nigerians and experts do not seem to agree. Before the debt grows to N77 trillion mid-year, trillions of naira would have been spent to service debts. In simple terms, what this means is that money that should be spent on social services will be handed down to creditors.

As a remedy, the Federal Government will be chasing revenue vigorously in the year. Apart from the existing revenue options being exploited by the government, this year, the fiscal authorities will be “bringing capital gains from acquiring and disposing of interests in cryptocurrencies, digital art and other digital assets into the tax net; ensuring under-taxed/not-taxed sectors, taxpayers, and others are brought into the tax net in line with extant laws and regulations; and clarify that 35 per cent of electronic money transfer levy receipts should be paid to local governments,” according to the Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed.

Another new revenue option to be exploited in 2023 will be to combat tax evasion and aggressive tax planning practices vis-à-vis Value Added Tax (VAT) reforms; align petroleum taxation with the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021; and complement ease of doing business and other reforms by enhancing tax administration. The government will, in 2023, complement non-fiscal reforms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and facilitate domestic and international investment in climate adaption and mitigation, as well as green growth economies and job creation.

However, it is unlikely that these measures will relieve the chocking hold debt servicing has on the country’s financial fortunes. Since the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) was criticised for abandoning its core duty of securing the country’s borders from harmful goods entering the country, denying the export of unauthorised items and ensuring that appropriate duties and excise are paid on items coming into or leaving the country, the Service has not been pulling its weight in trying to raise revenue.

It is unlikely NCS will be different in 2023 before this administration leaves. It is one of the weakest links in the chain of fiscal agencies that collect revenue. Having recognised the weak performance of the NCS, Zainab Ahmed has promised that “in the medium term, the NCS will introduce frameworks for recovering duties, taxes and appropriate fees from transactions conducted over electronic networks, while the Federal Government will also further enhance port efficiency, strengthen anti-smuggling measures, review tariffs and waivers and issue more licenses to build modern terminals in existing ports, especially outside Lagos.”

In the area of debt management, Ahmed said the Federal Government has offered to “continue to utilise appropriate debt management tools to streamline the cost and risk profile in the debt portfolio, including through concessional loans, spreading out of debt maturities to avoid bunching, and re-profiling of the debt maturities by refinancing short-term debt using long-term debt instruments.”

As of September 2022, the Federal Government had spent N3.06 trillion to service debt, and N11.134 trillion has been approved by the National Assembly to be borrowed by the Federal Government. These new borrowings will, inevitably, add to the volume of expenses the country will dole out to service debts. Revenue from crude oil sales is expected to appreciate in 2023 if crude oil theft can be stopped, and accurate amounts remitted into the necessary accounts after deductions are made to service debts and fund subsidies. If this is achieved, more money will be available from the Federation Account for the three tiers of government to share.

Monetary imperatives

The CBN’s 2022 annual report will make for interesting reading. It will explain how it managed to print and funnel over N22 trillion as an overdraft to the Federal Government over the years since 2014. Why it looked the other way time after time as the Federal Government exceeded its annual borrowing limits through ways and means?

In the area of inflation, headline inflation for November 2022 was 21.4 per cent, the highest in 25 years. The Federal Government has projected an average inflation figure of 17.16 per cent for the year, but with a proviso that the Russia-Ukraine crisis might worsen the projection. One way of fighting inflation is to increase interest rates. By raising rates, the CBN makes it costlier to take out a loan, causing people to borrow and spend less, thus applying the brakes on the economy and slowing down the pace of price increases.

Before the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the CBN has been battling to bring inflation down to a single digit. As it increases rates, inflation figures rise. It’s not that the CBN is doing the wrong thing; some individuals are frustrating the process. Already, there are whispers that the salaries of civil and public servants are being considered for upward review “because of the prevailing market conditions” brought on by inflation. If inflation means more money chasing a few goods, how can increasing workers’ salaries address inflation? How can rate hikes tackle salary increases?

A lot of money was withdrawn legitimately from the banking system over time, but never found its way back. If they did, monetary policy decisions would have addressed the problem of inflation. There is the question of non-contact banking otherwise known as a cashless policy. Some individuals such as politicians, top military officers, shady characters who hoard currencies, money launderers, and others have been operating without using cashless or non-contact means. In other words, they have been spending cash to avoid being traced or the movement of their money tracked.

This year, the Nigeria Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) has put a stop to cash withdrawals from public accounts. The major culprits of this over N1 trillion cash-in-circulation debacle are politicians and senior civil servants. By March 1, any money that leaves a government account can and will be tracked. By implication, cash that some of these individuals, especially those in the incoming administration have been blocked.

The CBN will be forced to address funding Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). Between 2020 and 2022, it facilitated the release of credit to indigent Nigerians and struggling SMEs. While it is within its powers to recover “loans” that it facilitated, going after poor Nigerians to who it gave money to “feed” under the Targeted Credit Facility (TCF) robs the CBN of any form of human sympathy. In 2020, the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, specifically said that the Household TCF was to support families that lost their livelihoods “to feed.” How does the CBN expect families it gave money to feed, to return or repay that same money?

What economic experts

In her preview of 2023, Gbemisola Alonge of Stears Daily noted that, with 21.47 per cent inflation, “Nigerians have less to spend on goods and services they typically need for survival. The World Bank estimates that five million Nigerians were pushed into poverty due to inflation in 2022 alone, after pushing eight million people into poverty the year prior.

“But the impact doesn’t stop at the consumer stage; it affects the entire economy. When people have less to spend, businesses suffer, and so does the government because there’s less money for taxes.”

Alonge added that because of past experiences, flooding, clashes and government policies, “businesses and consumers will need to pay attention to future policies that affect food supply to understand where inflation is headed next.”

She also argued that “the CBN’s attitude to combating inflation matters too. This year, two things will matter for the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision on interest rates. First will be economic growth. If growth remains sluggish, the MPC could vote to leave rates unchanged. “Since 2020, monetary policy in Nigeria has been broadly expansionary. The MPC’s decision to stave off increasing interest rates over this period, even as inflation ravaged, means monetary policy was slow to respond to increasing inflation.

“Of course, you could argue that the effect of the pandemic made policy-makers bullish on focusing on economic recovery, but the trade-off is clear. The more powerful factor might be the U.S. Fed’s approach to raising interest rates. Because of the naira-dollar pegs, Nigeria’s monetary policy should mirror what the U.S. Fed does.”

Alonge also pointed out that “recession in multiple countries this year is expected to trigger a dip in oil prices, which should mean lower inflationary pressure in Nigeria. However, given the role of oil prices as a means of foreign exchange earnings for Nigeria (and the ability to defend the naira-dollar peg), a dip in oil prices could also mean even more severe dollar shortages in the country, which could have own inflationary effect.

So, for anyone who wants to know which way Nigeria’s interest rates (and subsequently inflation) will move this year, a rule of thumb is that global factors will matter too. As an election year, Gbemisola Alonge’s position is that “everything from the funds for campaign advertisements to the incumbent government’s attempt to rush projects to curry political favour could spur inflation.

“Typically, we expect this to be temporary as governments tend to rein in spending post-election to curb some of the excesses of the campaign season. However, the extreme hardship Nigerians face might make it difficult for the incoming administration to curb government spending that could support low-income earners.”

Overall, she advised Nigeria’s policymakers “to give inflation the attention it deserves. If they don’t, Nigerians will keep getting poorer, and businesses will feel the heat, in their costs and revenue.

The Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of SD&D Capital Management Limited, Mr Gbolade Idakolo, told The Nation that “in 2023, not much will change because it is an election year and the outgoing government will pay little attention to the economy while the incoming government will need time to settle down. “If the CBN continues its policy trajectory in 2023, we might not see inflation receding or poverty reducing. The political loggerheads as a result of the Naira redesign might affect the successful implementation of the policy and its outcome.

“With the discovery of oil in the North and signing of more offshore exploration deals by the government, we could witness an increase in crude production that will bring about an increase in revenue into the government coffers as well. The coming on stream of Dangote Refinery and completion of Turn around Maintenance of the government refineries could see a reduction in the price of petroleum products and eventually lead to self-sufficiency in crude refining in Nigeria.

“The continued determination and success achieved so far in taming insecurity could restore investors’ confidence during the year. The request for additional borrowing that will bring our total debt to N77 trillion will result in higher debt servicing affecting infrastructural projects in 2023. The government needs to pay attention to the energy and petroleum sector to shore up revenue for the year and it will also help to increase productivity.”

He advised the government to come up with policies that would attract investors – both local and foreign. But overall, Nigeria needs a drastic change in policies to bring about the needed change in the economy that will usher in growth in all sectors in 2023. Taiwo Oyedele, a fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), said: “The major issue of concern is high inflation which continues to put pressure on monetary authorities to keep hiking interest rates, so much so that many countries are expected to slide into recession in 2023. Other issues include geopolitics, especially the invasion of Ukraine by Russia which has resulted in the shortage of energy and food supply, which, in turn, is fuelling the cost of living crisis and extreme poverty.

“The rising cases of COVID-19 in China and the country’s easing of restrictions may add to economic headwinds if other countries choose to impose restrictions on travels to and from China.

“Nigeria will have to contend with these negative externalities in addition to our peculiar challenges, especially insecurity, slow and fragile Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, forex scarcity, dwindling revenue resulting in consistent budget deficits and rising public debt compounded by oil theft and ballooning petrol subsidy.

“The next government will need to assemble a team of the most competent Nigerians for various leadership roles and develop the right policies in order to reverse the worrying trends and put the economy back on the path of sustainable development.”

World Bank on fuel subsidy and rejigging sub-nationals’ revenue sources

The World Bank believes that if the government successfully removes the fuel subsidy as promised, headline inflation is bound to increase over the next two years because of the pass-through effect. When the price of petrol at the pump is cost-reflective, inflation is bound to increase as transportation will be more expensive and food too.

The World Bank insists that Nigeria’s double-digit inflation is driven by poor policy choices (monetary and fiscal policy), foreign exchange restrictions and food supply challenges. With fortunes from crude oil sales, the state governments, more than ever, will do well to use 2023 to rejig their revenue sources. Thirty-three states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) depend almost entirely on receipts from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) purse.

According to BudgIT, only Lagos, Ogun and Akwa Ibom states “have a FAAC dependency that is less than 50 per cent.” State governments have to improve their Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) capabilities. The volatility in the commodities market, especially for oil and gas has, shown that depending on FAAC for revenue is asking for trouble. Their conditions are further made precarious by the global shift from a carbon to a green economy. This year, smart states will key into the green transition.

Fears are rife that the violent attacks on Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) offices in some flashpoints across the country may affect the conduct of February and March elections. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines how security agencies can cooperate with the electoral agency to achieve a hitch-free exercise

Many Nigerians  harbour the fear that next month’s polls may be in jeopardy in some parts of the country, if the attacks on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) facilities persist.

It is not new. In 2019, Edo elections were postponed due to security challenges. Also, in 2015, elections were rescheduled in the Northeast. Both postponements were at great costs to the country.

The electoral body is being distracted by arsonists at a time it should focus on final preparations for this year’s general election.

The motivation for the violence is unknown. Nobody knows the supplier of weapons.

INEC’s concerns should be seen in the light of the past disruptions. The nation wants this year’s polls to go on as scheduled. For months, candidates have been on the campaign train. There is a growing enthusiasm among the youths. All hands should therefore, be on deck. 

Election is a joint responsibility involving many stakeholders, including political parties, candidates, the electorate, the electoral body and security agencies. There are however, speculations that some evil minded persons do not want the elections to hold.

Recently, an official of the electoral agency raised the alarm that a conducive atmosphere does not exit for the conduct of the polls in some parts of the country. The statement generated controversy. INEC refuted the claim made by its official. Later, Information and Culture Minister Alhaji Lai Mohammed clarified that the polls will hold as scheduled.

The denial, clarification and assurance not withstanding, many Nigerians know that there are flashpoints, judging by reports by security agencies about incessant attacks and violence against INEC resources in some parts of the country.

What is required is that as INEC is working hard to conduct hitch-free exercise, the onus is on security agencies to do their job, which is to safeguard the electoral climate, provide security for the process and personnel, and rekindle hope about free and fair polls.

Generally, elections create nightmares in Nigeria. It is a periodic hurdle. This is due to the do-or-die attitude of many politicians. The polity is usually enveloped in anxiety as players are unwilling to play by the rules.

Voters often doubt that their votes would count. They act from the vantage of experience. In Nigeria, elections have been marred with malpractices.

There have been instances when elections were stopped abruptly and postponed due to certain challenges, although INEC had prepared for months to conduct what it envisaged would be seamless polls. Family members of INEC officials fear for their loved ones on electoral duty. The job of an electoral officer hardly elicits envy in Nigeria. It is laden with thorns and twists because all the stages elections are always problematic.

However, INEC is rising to the occasion and the current leadership of the electoral umpire has been working assiduously to overcome identifiable pitfalls. The public is never sparing the electoral body for gaps in role fulfilment. Also, the commission has also tried to purge and purify itself by surrendering its officials for prosecution.

According to observers, INEC is determined to satisfy the national yearning for transparent polls, judging by the series of programmes it has organised to ensure credibility. It has interfaced with many segments of the society. It has also embarked on reforms that will make it improve on the conduct of the exercise. The country has invested a lot of resources in the electioneering. Therefore, Nigerians expect nothing less than a credible exercise. In fact, many people expect an election that will pass the test of integrity and constitutionality. But the usual phenomenon of shifting electoral battle from ballot box to the court is still worrisome.

If INEC is denied cooperation by any segment of the society, then, it may be difficult for the electoral body to avoid some hiccups.

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Given Nigeria’s electoral history, it becomes imperative to caution that any form of violence targeted at the commission may divert its attention from effectively implementing the electoral programme it has lined up. Violence against INEC personnel and offices is an ill will that does not do the electoral process any good.

Insecurity is an important area of concern. Security is a priority that should not be compromised. There is no particular region that is insulated. The integrity of an election conducted in an atmosphere of apprehension may be compromised. Polling booths may be deserted if there is threat to life. There may be apathy.

  Kidnappings in the Southwest send dangerous signals. Boko Haram is still on prowl in Northwest and Northeast. Unknown gunmen are on rampage in the Southeast. The current period is remarkable for inexplicable bloodletting.

  The war against INEC offices by unscrupulous elements is worrisome. It connotes a threat to electoral democracy, democratic consolidation, constitutional governance, and national stability.

 INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, who has painted an awful picture, alerted the country to the danger that needs to be averted. He said: “In less than two weeks, three of our local government offices were attacked across the country, bringing the total number of such attacks to seven in the last four months.

 “While we want to reassure Nigerians that we will recover from these attacks, and the election will proceed as scheduled, we would like to appeal to all citizens to see the commission’s facilities as national assets. It is our collective responsibility to join hands in protecting them. The attacks must stop and the perpetrators swiftly apprehended and prosecuted.”

 Local offices of the electoral agency have gone up in flames, following onslaught by unknown gunmen, and for inexplicable reasons. It is a strange and unjustifiable aggression capable of subverting or undermining INEC’s capacity to organise untainted elections.

The six regions have had their share of the tragedy. The unwarranted attacks have been recorded in Abeokuta South of Ogun State, Orlu and Owerri in Imo State and some parts of Enugu State. On May 2, arsonists burnt the INEC office in Essien Udim Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State.

 On May 9, gunmen razed INEC offices in Ohafia Local Government Area of Abia State. Policemen were alarmed.

 On May 13, the commission’s office at Udenu Local Government Area headquarters in Obollo-Afor, Enugu State, was razed down. According to INEC officers, nothing was spared in the office after the attack, including 16 generators. The facilities were depleted.

On May 14, seven Toyota Hilux vans belonging to INEC were burnt in a night attack on the commission’s office in Awka, the Anambra State capital. There was panic.

 On May 16, the Enugu State office was vandalised. Many vehicles were razed. Officials took to their heels.

 On May 18, two more offices in Ebonyi and Ezza North local government areas of Ebonyi State were burnt down.

 On May 23, the INEC state office in Anambra State was also attacked. On the same day, the commission’s office in Ahiazu Mbaise Local Government Area of Imo State was set ablaze.

 On May 23, its office in Igboeze South Local Government Area of Enugu State was attacked.

 Also, on May 30, INEC’s office in Njaba Council Area of Imo State was burnt by hoodlums. The list is quite long.

 With such unwarranted attacks on the commission’s facilities, there is no way its officials would not be jittery for their safety during elections. This is one of the reasons the deployment of security operatives during elections has been like going to war. This has become a recurring decimal in the polity, unlike what obtains in other climes where people just queue up for a few minutes, get the ballot papers and cast their votes without any ugly incident.

 When will Nigeria mature to that level, when people would understand that elections should not be perceived as winner takes all? Why would some people constitute themselves as the stumbling blocks towards the conduct of transparent, free, and credible polls? What do the merchants of violence gain from the pains they inflict on fellow compatriots?

 In many situations of violence, people, including policemen, were either killed or maimed. Valuable equipment, voting crucibles and other materials critical to the conduct of elections were razed, destroyed and vandalised.

 Concern has been raised over hundreds of ballot boxes and unknown number of voter’s cards destroyed across the affected offices.

 In Ede South of Osun State, there was panic as the local INEC office in the area was torched, throwing workers into panic. In the local office, 65,000 PVCs were burnt.  The identities of the perpetrators are largely unknown. However, the arrest of some hoodlums involved in the recent Imo attack by the police may provide a lead. Investigations are ongoing to unravel the motivation for the irrational crime against popular rule.

Those arrested were armed with AK47, GPD rifles, charms and locally made explosives.

There are puzzles to be resolved: is a dangerous signal not being sent by the orgy of violence? Why are criminal elements waging war against the electoral agency Who are their sponsors? Who are those supplying arms to the youths to perpetrate mayhem? What is their goal or agenda?

What cannot be disputed is that the attacks were organised and premeditated. It appears that they were targeted at crippling the commission and scuttling or disrupting the general election.

Imo State Governor Hope Uzodimma has repeatedly blamed politicians for the onslaught. He said: “This is a further proof that insecurity in Imo State is politically contrived. In Imo State, you have politicians who want to win elections without going through the electioneering process.”

Mixed reactions have trailed the governor’s assertion. Indisputably, Imo has experienced its dosage of violence, which has given it a bad name. Rivalry has not abated, even after the last governorship poll, which resulted in a protracted litigation.

But other observers believe that Uzodimma’s remark smacked of hasty generalisation or conclusion, when a thorough investigation has not been conducted to reveal the identities of the culprits.

What cannot be disputed is that the Southeast, like other regions, is suffering from the proliferation of arms and other tools of instability.

 Although Prof. Yakubu and INEC National Commissioner for Education and Enlightenment, Chief Festus Okoye, have allayed public fears about the threat posed to the most crucial phase of the electioneering, there is panic among the staff members of the commission and other ad hoc workers, including university teachers who are hired as returning officers, and members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC).

 Naturally, voters also worry for their safety. If the trend of attacks persists, voters may shun the exercise in some areas.

Yakubu and Okoye may be acting from the vantage points of experience. But, the country would need a more concrete assurance from the government that the attacks on INEC offices will not culminate in unacceptable fractional elections.

 In 2015 and 2019, when apprehension gripped the Northeast because Boko Haram was on the prowl, there was respite before the poll day. Also, when anxiety engulfed Anambra State ahead of the last governorship poll, reason prevailed at the end. INEC was able to conduct a successful poll, despite the initial constraints.

Election is key to democracy, but periodic and orderly transfer of power is impossible without democratic contest. The only body empowered for the huge task of delivering free and fair polls is INEC. Therefore, any violent attack on the commission is an attack on democracy, the constitution and the entire country. It may be an invitation to chaos, confusion and setback.

It is, therefore, the duty of the police to protect INEC offices. But, what is the numerical strength of the Nigerian Police? Besides, policemen are not spirits. They need the assistance of members of the public to perform effectively and excel in intelligence gathering. Indeed, intelligence gathering is a joint responsibility. That is why Nigerians should cooperate with security agencies to unravel the circumstances that led to the strange attacks on INEC facilities.

For INEC to organise acceptable elections, its confidence should not be affected because of the likelihood of unfavourable conditions. 

INEC is lamenting that the atmosphere is not conducive. Sensitive materials have to be moved to sites or state offices. From there, they are distributed to local government offices. Already, 50 per cent of the materials are in those locations. They are now being damaged or destroyed, if not carted away.

 If materials already delivered are going up in flames, it portends the dangers that lay ahead. The cost of procuring the sensitive materials is enormous. It also takes months to manufacture them to specification by the contractors. Timing is important. The ideal time for moving the materials to location is usually adhered to strictly for convenience and effective operations.

 If the materials are suddenly destroyed, there is a setback. New ones have to be provided at a huge cost that was not initially anticipated. The time may be too short to procure replacement.

 How are Southeast governors responding to the threats posed against the INEC?

They are camouflage security officers of their states.

 Although the governors came up with Ebube Agu, it is only functioning in two states – Ebonyi and Imo; it maintains a skeletal presence in Abia. It does not exist in Anambra and Enugu. Thus, there is no prospect of regional collaboration on security in the zone. The Southeast governors are not only divided by political leanings, there also appears to be a clash of egos. There is no team spirit.

 In contrast, the Southwest perceived insecurity as a collective threat. All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors in the region put their political differences apart and confronted the security challenge jointly. They pooled their resources together and floated a regional outfit, Amotekun, which has assisted greatly in reducing criminal activities in the region. The regional security outfit has recorded a number of successes though more still needs to be done.

It is noteworthy that the House of Representatives has set up an ad hoc committee chaired by Taiwo Oluga. It is expected to submit its report within three weeks for more legislative action.

Also, as suggested by the House, security agencies should synergise with the Attorney-General and Minister of Justice to identify, investigate, arrest and prosecute those responsible for the violence.

 Besides INEC’s efforts at enlightening its officials about their duty in conducting credible elections, other stakeholders also need to complement such efforts at educating members of the public on the need for everyone to understand that violence against the commission or its officials is an attack on our collective being and a backward step against the country.

Besides, the ministries of Information at the federal and local government levels as well as the Information units in the local governments need to embark on aggressive enlightenment of the populace on the essence of peace to national development.

The legislature at all levels needs to have sweeping laws that severely punish perpetrators of electoral violence, and the punishment must be seen to be well administered on the culprits.

These steps have become compelling to make the merchants of electoral fury regret venturing into the ugly lane in the future. Obviously, the punishment for past offenders has not been sufficient to deter others from committing the same offence all the time.