Dayo Sobowale
THE news that the incumbent Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has no plans for a third term may surprise the international community but it certainly came as no surprise to Nigerians. This is largely due to the president’s character and image as a man of integrity who will not tamper with our constitution that prescribes two terms for any elected government. Surely, as some have inferred, it has nothing to do with lessons learnt from the aborted third term bid of one of his predecessors. Compare that with what is going on in the US where the incumbent President Donald Trump started campaigning for the 2020 election to succeed himself a day after he was sworn in in 2016. While in the Nigerian scenario the president opened the door in an orderly manner for competition to succeed him to unravel, Trump breached all protocol and ethics in beginning his succession campaign and nobody in the US raised a voice. It is my intention today to bring focus on the US ‘ meddlesomeness in other nation’s affairs with impunity, while it has no political or ethical platform to put its own house, which is its political system, in order.
I intend to showcase this by looking at events in Hong Kong and Iraq where political protests have been violent and endless in recent times, or even days and one can see American hand and encouragement behind these unrests. I will compare this with the situation in Nigeria which somehow is calmer and less explosive than the American situation, where a president trying to succeed himself is facing the prospect of Impeachment at home while sowing the seeds of democratic discord and violence abroad. Yet there is no denying that the succession race in Nigeria even though undeclared yet, has started in earnest and members of the ruling party know which direction to turn to for a leader to succeed the president who has blown the whistle for his succession by declaring that he will not run in 2023. I also intend to peruse how former President Barak Obama handled his succession in both party and nation to see what can be learnt from that, both in Nigeria and the US by the Democratic Party in power in Obama’s era and the APC in power in Nigeria now.
Events in both Iraq and Hong Kong show the ugly side of democracy when protests descend to violence and anarchy and law enforcement becomes ineffective leading to a breakdown of law and order. We saw both on display in both Iraq and Hong Kong in the global village our world has become thanks to information technology. But the US is the instigator and promoter in both places in the name of promoting liberty and freedom inherent in the concept and ideology of democracy. This week the US President signed into law with the full backing of the US Congress a law that literally backs the protesters in Hong Kong by tying the hand of China against sending the Chinese army to Hong Kong to stop the protests and restore law and order in a nation that has been rioting since March this year. Although China has called the American interference ‘ bullying ‘there is no denying that it will not do the needful to contain the violent anarchy in Hong Kong because of the trade deal it is negotiating with the US.
In Iraq the protests are against a corrupt Shiite political elite supported by Iran and the people mostly young people and Shiite are calling for an end to corruption and foreign interference in Iraq by the Ayatollahs in Iran. There is rampant violence and instability in Iraq now and some 20 protesters were shot in an holy city this week. Yet, before the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim which is a minority sect to the Shiite in Iraq , provided stability as part of the US geopolitical policy of creating peace and stability in that part of the Middle East. The 2003 Iraqi invasion of George Bush Jnr blew that apart by removing Saddam on the false premise of having weapons of mass destruction and the ambitious plan of planting democracy, which brought the majority Shiite, allies of Iran whose leaders called the US the Great Satan, into power in Iraq. The planting of democracy in Iraq destroyed the geopolitical stability in the area and led to the rise of ISIS which the US and Iraq claimed to have defeated at great human and material costs just recently. In Iraq the cost of democracy has been enormous, violent and murderous but the US has been the ready and willing midwife, house keeper and sponsor, whilst Iraqis are being killed daily by the people they voted to power in democratic elections.
Let us now look at lessons to be learnt from how Obama handled his succession and what is about to happen in Nigeria in terms of succession. I stated before that Obama was not comfortable that Hillary Clinton could win the Democratic party’s nomination and succeed him and I will show why. His Vice President then, Biden, the leading contender now for his party, wanted to succeed Obama. But his boss forced his hand to concede to Hillary at a White House Press conference. Then Biden insisted that whoever must be the party’s flag bearer must campaign on the Obama legacy. That was the albatross that Hillary carried and in addition to being branded’ reckless ‘by the FBI she lost the 2016 presidential election. Trump gained favor with the US electorate in 2016 because they were fed up with the Obama legacy on which she was forced to campaign by Biden who is the front runner for the party in the 2020 election. How Biden himself will succeed where Hillary failed with the Ukraine saga involving his son unfolding in Trump’s Impeachment process will be the wonder of the world in this 2020 US presidential elections.
In the Nigerian scenario the situation is a bit cloudy but every cloud has its silver lining . Between the two main parties, namely the PDP and the party in power the APC, a lot of water has passed under the bridge since the 2015 presidential elections. The PDP when in power thought it could rule for ever and got swamped with arrogance and corruption and is now not only rudderless but leaderless . I wonder on what platform it could stage a comeback in 2023 as it has been largely swallowed by the APC. It is as if the PDP cannot claim to be a credible alternative to the APC which is battling with massive insecurity and trust problem with the Nigerian electorate. The ace the APC holds however is that the President is not likely to interfere with his succession as Obama did and Trump has been doing since 2016. That leaves the election and reelection machinery of the APC intact for 2023. There is no doubt that the Party knows the architect of the parties’ two last presidential elections. The 2023 elections should put an end to the era of political surrogates and substitution and will be the election that will remove the mask from the face of Lagbaja to reveal that of the Khalifa or successor.
Once again, long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
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