Barring any untoward development, Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji is expected to become the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag bearer in Saturday’s primary in Osogbo, Osun State, after several candidates were disqualified. However, the race remains unpredictable as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) revises its strategy and Governor Ademola Adeleke’s latest move. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI reports.
Calculated risks and shifting alliances now define Osun State’s political landscape. With the All Progressives Congress (APC) primary narrowed to Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji and Mulikat Abiola Jimoh, a once crowded contest has taken an unexpected turn.
While the APC has reduced internal disputes, the broader political environment remains unsettled. The ADC is adjusting its approach under Rauf Aregbesola, political blocs are realigning, and Governor Ademola Adeleke is delaying his decision. These developments set the stage for a highly competitive 2026 race with implications beyond the primary.
APC primary
The APC shocked many last week when its seven-member screening committee, led by Chief Obinna Uzoh, disqualified seven out of nine aspirants previously cleared to compete. Only Oyebamiji and Jimoh survived the committee’s scrutiny. Heavyweights like Senator Iyiola Omisore, Benedict Olugboyega Alabi, and Babajide Omoworare were removed because they lacked sufficient backing from financially up-to-date party members across local government areas.
This decision immediately turned a potentially contentious primary into a two-person contest. For party strategists concerned about post-primary disputes, especially after Osun’s tense 2022 experience, the screening outcome appears to be a strategic effort at damage control.
A senior party figure put it succinctly: “Osun doesn’t reward division. The last thing we need is another primary that tears the party apart before we even begin campaigning.”
However, unity achieved through exclusion carries risks. Supporters of disqualified aspirants may view the process as deliberate marginalisation. If grievances persist, this could lead to defections, litigation, or internal sabotage, all of which have previously undermined the party’s success in Osun.
The disqualifications raise questions about party discipline, internal democracy, and whether the APC is strengthening or concealing deeper divisions. The outcome will determine if the party enters the 2026 governorship election with momentum or unresolved discontent.
Oyebamiji’s edge
Among the remaining aspirants, Oyebamiji distinguishes himself through both his qualifications and preparation. From Ikire in Irewole Local Government Area, he has a strong background in finance and administration, developed in banking and at the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA). Supporters highlight his financial discipline, organisational skills, and calm, technocratic approach.
Over the past year, he has translated ambition into action by resigning from his federal position, touring Osun, building alliances, developing policy plans, and securing key endorsements. His AMBO Movement, with coordinators in all 332 wards, has mobilised grassroots support ahead of other aspirants.
This disciplined, detailed organisation gives him a distinct advantage. In Osun, where local presence outweighs media visibility, such groundwork can be decisive. Supporters describe the movement as a political “insurance policy” designed to safeguard his candidacy.
He has also positioned himself as the candidate of fiscal discipline and administrative competence. At a rally in Ijesa North, he accused the Adeleke administration of squandering opportunity: “Osun has been enjoying a rainfall of over 300 per cent more revenue under Adeleke in the last 30 months — yet there is nothing to show for it.” It’s a message calibrated to resonate with voters frustrated by perceived stagnation.
However, his path remains challenging. The disqualification of prominent figures such as Senator Iyiola Omisore and former Deputy Governor Gboyega Alabi may cause resentment, affecting turnout or party unity. Osun’s political history shows that federal experience does not always lead to local success. The APC’s 2022 loss, despite holding state and federal power, highlights that Osun voters value authenticity and local ties.
For Oyebamiji, success depends on emotional resonance as much as technical competence. He must demonstrate compassion, communicate policy in relatable terms, and court factions of dissenting parties. Organisation can create momentum — but only a unifying message can transform that momentum into victory.
Quiet contender with limited reach
Mulikat Abiola Jimoh, though less prominent statewide, brings legislative experience from representing the Ifelodun State Constituency from 2018 to 2023. Her candidacy highlights the APC’s effort to promote diversity and broaden its internal field.
However, her political network, endorsements, and influence are limited compared to Oyebamiji’s campaign. Her main challenge is expanding her reach. In a primary where established structures often determine outcomes, her limited statewide presence is a significant obstacle.
Nonetheless, the narrowed contest increases her visibility. While she may not be the frontrunner, she is no longer overshadowed by more prominent candidates. Her candidacy offers the party a symbolic demonstration of inclusiveness during its internal transition.
ADC and the Aregbesola calculation
Outside the APC, the ADC is becoming a significant factor, particularly with former Governor Rauf Aregbesola returning to prominence as the party’s interim national secretary after leaving the APC earlier this year.
For Aregbesola, the ADC is more than a new platform; it is an effort to regain influence. His impact in Osun, established during his tenure as governor, remains significant despite some divisions. The Omoluabi Progressives, though reduced in size, still command strong loyalty in certain areas.
Recent divisions within the party highlight the fragility of its coalition. The departure of former Secretary to the State Government, Moshood Adeoti, previously a close ally of Aregbesola, revealed internal contradictions. His exit followed reports that the 2026 governorship ticket may go to former Speaker Najeem Salaam.
If the ADC can stabilise, choose a unifying candidate, and speak directly to voters disillusioned with both the APC and the current administration, it could evolve into a formidable third force. Many Osun residents still recall the Aregbesola era with nostalgia, citing a sense of purpose and an ambitious infrastructure agenda.
However, unity remains the ADC’s primary challenge. Without a cohesive structure, its influence may diminish.
Adeleke holds the wild card
Governor Ademola Adeleke, a key figure in Osun’s 2026 political landscape, finally joined the Accord Party on Tuesday, after resigning from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on December 2. This move marks a decisive shift, breaking a period of indecision during which multiple parties courted him for their governorship ticket.
With the PDP weakened by prolonged disputes, Adeleke had been approached by several parties. According to reports, he had negotiated with Aregbesola’s ADC, but they could not reach an agreement.
Insiders maintain that Adeleke’s initial delay was strategic. “He waited for the right moment — for maximum leverage and clarity,” one senior politician said. “He chose the platform that gives him the cleanest path.”
As the incumbent, he has visibility, statewide networks, and access to resources. Yet, the actual test will be whether the Accord Party can provide a well-organised and functional platform to translate these assets into a successful campaign.
While his switch to the Accord Party sets the stage for next year’s off-cycle election in Osun, the ultimate impact of this new political alignment remains uncertain. Should Adeleke face internal challenges or miscalculate, his bid could be more precarious than anticipated.
The coming months will reveal whether Adeleke’s gamble on the Accord Party would strengthen his position or expose unexpected vulnerabilities as the 2026 governorship contest approaches.
Narrowed path with sharp edges
For the APC, a streamlined primary offers both relief and risk. The party can project unity, discipline, and clarity, but must also address the dissatisfaction of excluded aspirants and their supporters.
The APC’s emerging narrative focuses on competence, fiscal discipline, and alignment with the federal government. But Osun’s political history warns against overconfidence. The state votes with its own logic, often favouring relatable candidates over elaborate structures.
The APC candidate must rebuild relationships, restore trust in overlooked communities, and deliver a message that appeals beyond party loyalists.
The coming months will reveal whether the APC’s strategy is a strength or a liability. The ADC’s ability to unify will determine if it is a spoiler or a contender. Adeleke’s decision will influence whether the race is a direct contest or a fragmented three-way competition.
Currently, the APC is on a narrower but manageable path. However, the broader political environment remains unsettled, with both uncertainty and opportunity present.
Elections in Osun are historically unpredictable. While recent developments have narrowed the APC’s field, the outcome of the 2026 race remains uncertain and may still hold surprises.
Deepening fault lines
Despite the APC’s streamlined two-person race, complex internal dynamics persist. While the public narrative highlights order and unity, insiders note that the disqualification of key figures has revived longstanding rivalries within the party.
Some of these tensions originate from the 2022 conflict between the camps of former governor Gboyega Oyetola and Rauf Aregbesola, a rift that remains unresolved. Although Aregbesola has joined the ADC, his former supporters’ sentiments persist within the APC. The screening outcome has raised new questions about the party’s internal balance, including which interests are prioritised and who feels marginalised.
Several ward-level stakeholders privately described the new primary structure as “too neat to be natural.” They believe the abrupt narrowing raises concerns about behind-the-scenes negotiations and an intent to pre-select a candidate who can unite the Oyetola bloc and attract undecided factions.
This perception, regardless of its accuracy, is significant. Politics in Osun relies on local trust networks, and any sense of elite imposition can trigger backlash, shift alliances, or prompt protest votes.
The APC’s path ahead
Despite internal pressures, the APC remains the best-positioned party organisationally. The streamlined primary provides clarity at a crucial time, but stakeholders should not be mistaken for certainty.
The party must undertake three urgent tasks: Reconcile with sidelined factions. Without sincere bridge building, the party risks internal sabotage. Craft a message that resonates with the broader public. Voters want practical governance, not just political positioning.
The APC should also prepare for a multi-front contest. An Adeleke-led ticket, combined with a resurgent ADC, could result in the most competitive race the party has faced in a decade.
In summary, the party’s internal unity is both its greatest asset and its most vulnerable point.
With the APC’s primary now a simplified contest and the broader political landscape evolving, Osun’s 2026 election is set to be highly unpredictable. The disqualification of seven aspirants has given Oyebamiji a more straightforward path, but has also increased expectations and scrutiny. Meanwhile, the ADC faces a pivotal moment: it could become influential if united or irrelevant if divided. Governor Adeleke’s latest move remains a key factor that could alter the political landscape.
Osun is not approaching a quiet election season. Instead, the state is entering a high-stakes contest in which discipline, timing, messaging, and coalition-building will determine the outcome.
For the APC, this is a bold strategy. Whether it proves successful or not will become clear in the coming months.
