Nigeria’s Fountain of Knowledge, Ekiti State, is on the cusp of making a peculiar political statement. Whichever way the governorship primary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ends, Ekiti is set to tell the world something worth paying attention to.
If the incumbent wins the contest, he would have broken a jinx that erected a barrier on the path of his predecessors from securing two straight terms. But if he loses the primary, it would be a foregone conclusion that the state is haunted by a second-term spook.
So far, there is nothing to show that victory would elude the incumbent.
As preparations for the primary intensify, there is no doubt that the wheat will be separated from the chaff, ultimately. The main contender and the pretenders will be known on October 27.
After the exercise, the losers, with bruised and deflated ego, would reconcile with the predictable winner. The lessons of the contest would be very instructive, although they may be lost on the gullible and those who draw the wool over their eyes.
The primary is the first critical step in the ruling party’s push for continuity. The bigger game is next year’s poll, which will herald a similar contest in the neighbouring Osun State involving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and APC.
These elections would lay the foundation for the 2027 general election, which is nearer than imagined. Thus, the governorship polls may have a predictive value.
Morning shows the day. While other contestants appear to be spoiling for war in a no-war zone, engaging in character assassination and indulging in curious revisionism in the Ekiti APC, the expected winner has remained focused. He is consolidating his hold on the party as he looks forward to the contest with confident hope and optimism.
There are, understandably, few deserters from the vehicle to the primary. But that partisan behaviour is not really a foul play. The transient shift in loyalty may be a normal element of intra-party contest that does not totally pale into anti-party activity.
What is striking in Ekiti APC is that a few alarmists are creating the impression of a looming stiff contest. Although the chapter is not threatened by external forces – the PDP, the relic of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the split PDP masquerading as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) – it may be battling with some negligible internal contradictions.
After the statewide endorsement for Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji (BAO), the coast was clear that a vacancy does not exist for now at the Government House in Ado-Ekiti, the state capital. But a tiny fraction of those who initially were part of the endorsement are exercising their constitutional right to look for temporary trading opportunities with other contenders ahead of the primary.
Politics is in the air in the rustic, far-flung hilly state. Eyes are on a sub-regional unit where principled actors are wrongly labelled by outsiders as stubborn folks. Everybody’s attention is on the imminent battle. There are permutations, series of cajoling, rumour mongering and propaganda by hired consultants and spin doctors.
Gladiators have returned to the drawing board to perfect strategies for intrigues. Social media warriors are locked in reputational damage. There are accusations and counter-accusations by antagonistic supporters and followers.
Lightweights are showing nude bravado, building castles in the air. It is one of the wonders of the game that the weak is trying to bully the strong while simultaneously resorting to direct blackmail, with their ‘disarticulated’ followers crying foul where there is none.
Facts are also deliberately distorted. Some storytellers are trying to rewrite the history of Ekiti State’s creation. It smacks of jealousy. As they try to dismiss the governor’s involvement in the historic agitation as scanty or negligible, observers find fault with their claim. The questions are: where were these opponents during the popular clamour for state creation? What was the contribution of these adversaries? Are they entitled to any footnote when the history of state creation is fully written?
To those who keep records, these scenarios are not new. Politics is about competition and antagonism. In some quarters, the elements of ‘do-or-die’ cannot be totally ruled out by bitter actors. The point of departure is that that unruly partisan behaviour connotes political immaturity.
But should the sordid past be re-enacted?
The Ondo-Ekiti axis was usually enveloped in tension during governorship primaries in the progressive bloc. The only exception was the 1979 primary of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) involving Chief Adekunle Ajasin, Senator Ayo Fasanmi, and Rev. Iluyomade, a former Principal of International School at the University of Ibadan (UI).
The primary of 1982 contested by Ajasin, Chief Akin Omoboriowo, and Senator Banji Akintoye divided the progressive camp. But those who defected from the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) to the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) never recovered from the public opprobrium that followed their action.
In the Third Republic, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) primary was fiercely contested among aspirants of Ekiti origin – Evangelist Bamidele Olumilua, Dr. Kunle Olajide, Prof. David Oke (Pick a Gem), Akinyemi, and Prof. Opeyemi Ola – after the ticket was zoned to Ekiti. Ajasin gave instructions from his Owo bedroom that delegates should vote for Olumilua, who won.
In 1999, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) primary between Otunba Niyi Adebayo and Chief S. K. Kolawole was moderated by Lagos-based Afenifere leaders of Ogun State origin. It generated bitterness. Babalola, an Awoist, surprisingly left for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He never returned to his natural political habitat.
In 2007, Ekiti AD/Action Congress (AC) was in turmoil after Dr. Kayode Fayemi won the ticket. Other aspirants – Prince Dayo Adeyeye, Ayo Arise, and Joseph Odetola – hurriedly defected to the PDP. The governorship poll that followed was chaotic. The result was disputed. For the next three years, peace took a flight from the state.
Also, anxiety enveloped Ekiti APC during the 2017 primary. No fewer than 30 chieftains showed interest. On the eve of the primary, there was commotion. The national chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, who was taken aback by the rancorous atmosphere, wondered why the National Leader could not rein in his ‘boys’ in Ekiti. It took the wisdom of party elders to restore order in a state of pandemonium.
However, three years ago, there was a semblance of orderliness. The handwriting on the wall was clear to featherweights who initially threw their hats in the ring. The party was in one accord when BAO got the ticket and won the poll.
In all these shadow polls, a key element of success was the structure of the aspirant. This factor, among others, will shape the anticipated exercise, which may be through a direct or indirect method, since the consensus option has been ruled out.
Other associated issues, which also have a linkage with the structure of the contenders, are personal and political networks, relationship with the party, service to the political family, experience, record of performance in public service, and financial war chest.
Others are: the incumbency factor, support of the four predecessors, public perception, and the guided position of the delegates.
All these factors, without mincing words, comparatively favour Oyebanji more than his rivals. If other aspirants challenge the governor to a debate, he would be rated above them in terms of public service experience, knowledge of the state, and a good understanding of its multiple problems.
While the governor is in a vantage position to tender his scorecard, his rivals would have nothing comparable to show.
Contestants Kayode Ojo and Abimbola Olajumoke have attained good heights in their chosen professions. As Nigerians, and indeed, indigenes of Ekiti, they have the inalienable right to seek the ticket. But the political gap between the governor and the two contenders is wide. Many party stalwarts perceive them as starters who would be making promises to Ekiti on what they intend to do, unlike the governor, who has applied for mandate renewal based on what he has accomplished, and what more he is still doing as an incumbent.
The Ekiti APC is the dominant structure that is critical to the primary. It would not be strange if over 80 per cent of the membership queues behind BAO if the exercise is based on the delegate system.
Oyebanji has been an important and faithful member of the family from the inception of the Fourth Republic and throughout his political career as a Personal Assistant, Chief of Staff, Commissioner, Director-General, Secretary to the State Government, governor and state party leader.
Undiluted loyalty is key to the structure. In times of storm, stress and tension, members of the structure have often elevated group interest over personal agenda. BAO is a product of the time-tested tradition.
Loyal stalwarts have always embraced intra-party crisis-resolution mechanisms in the chapter. These committed and dedicated chieftains are poles apart from political neonates who opted to take the party to court to ventilate grievances before and after elections.
The party knows BAO, who also knows the party leaders across the wards, local governments, constituencies, and districts, unlike his challengers, who have to be newly introduced to critical stakeholders in many local councils and at the state level.
However, to avoid a post-primary crisis, the national leadership should endeavour to conduct a free and fair primary, leaving no room for any loophole that can be capitalised upon by the symbols of internal contradiction in the chapter.
