Tag: Nigeria

By Bamidele Ademola-Olateju

Killings and abductions across Nigeria cannot be traced to a single factor. It did not begin with with any change in rhetoric from Washington. Those stoking the ember of a single narrative need to see the bigger picture. The violence is the product of years of drift, weak institutions, crowded ungoverned spaces and a mix of insurgents, bandits, militias and criminal networks that have learned how to exploit every gap in the system. Everyone is a potential victim. But Washington’s recent CPC designation has added a new layer of pressure. It has pushed the country into a global spotlight that feels as intense as it is uncomfortable. Saboteurs may have capitalized on the renewed attention to escalate the killings and abductions. But they will never prevail.

To understand what is happening, it helps to see Nigeria’s insecurity as a complex ecosystem rather than a single war. Terrorist factions operate with ideological motives. Bandit groups chase profit and control. Local militias grow out of land and identity disputes. Criminal networks move through porous borders with ease. These groups may not coordinate with one another, but they all shape the same reality. When the United States issues a designation, such as CPC, everyone of these actors interprets it in a way that serves their goals. Some see it as proof that they are gaining traction. Others escalate violence to position themselves for negotiations they believe may come later. A few try to exploit the attention by deepening fear in communities already stretched thin. Yet others do it to put the preset government in bad light as the 2027 election cycle closes in.

Inside government, the pressure is different. The CPC label increases scrutiny. It forces Nigeria’s security agencies to operate under brighter light. Every decision can be pulled into the global conversation about human rights, intelligence failures, and state capacity. When National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu met with Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, in the United States, it was a sign that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu understands this moment. Hegseth’s audience is influential, especially in American conservative circles, and his views resonate among lawmakers who shape U.S. security policy. That engagement shows Nigeria trying to explain, defend, and clarify its position before others define it for them. To this end, Ribadu’s trip was successful.

The recent congressional hearing on insecurity in Nigeria took this scrutiny to a higher level. Congressional hearings signal seriousness. They shape decisions about aid, partnerships, and arms sales. They influence whether Washington sees Nigeria as a country that needs firm pressure or one that deserves deeper cooperation. They also create political consequences at home. When Congress publicly discusses Nigeria’s failures, it becomes difficult for the government to manage the narrative with the usual quiet diplomacy.

Against this tense backdrop, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s actions are commendable, beginning with the rescue of abducted Catholic school students. It reminded Nigerians that the state still has teeth and that security agencies can deliver results. The operation was swift, coordinated, and handled with discipline. But rescues, while important, do not erase the pattern of mass kidnappings. In national-security terms, a single success does not change the broader equation. It simply proves that capacity exists when intelligence is good, coordination is tight, and political interference is kept at bay.

These events place Nigeria at a crossroads: The CPC listing, the Washington meetings, the congressional hearing, and the high-profile rescue form a tight cluster of events that could either push Nigeria toward reform or intensify the country’s fragility. The outcome depends on choices made now. Security cannot rely on heroics. It needs structure, discipline, trust and a strategy that sees legitimacy as a core tool, not an afterthought. That means stabilizing the current situation, rebuilding the machinery of security and taking a long view that goes beyond emergency responses. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has embarked on such a project, with clear, workable recommendations drawn from national-security good practice and adapted to our realities.

First, he is now pivoting toward intelligence-led prevention. That requires real-time information from communities, better coordination between agencies and rapid-response units that deploy based on verified threats. Soft targets like schools, markets and worship centers are receiving immediate attention. Where necessary, schools are being closed to give room for needed changes in the security architecture. Vetted community watch groups are being tied directly into police reporting structures. Just as important are transparency and effective communication about government efforts. The public, especially affected families, need a single, credible source for information about attacks, rescue efforts, and government support. When people know what the state is doing, anxiety and fear lose some of their power.

This is where the President’s directive to withdraw policemen on duty from VIPs becomes very significant. So many of such orders were given in the past by previous administrations without effect. This must be taken seriously and monitored. The issue of state police must be brought to fruition. Already, those profiting from the abuse of the present system are already opposing state police, because some of them have police officers as orderlies, while the federal government continues to pay their salaries from the federal police budget.

Operational discipline also matters. Heavy-handed raids that harm civilians deepen resentment and strengthen insurgents. Independent observers or judicial oversight for major operations can help keep abuses in check and reassure communities that security is not being weaponized against them. In addition, there must be no sacred cows. President Tinubu must not hesitate to go after sponsors of terror no matter who they are.

Second, Nigeria must rebuild capacity in the medium term. A functional national joint operations center, beyond the Ministry of Interior, where intelligence agencies, the military and the police actually share information, is long overdue. The police need real investment in forensics, investigation and prosecution. Without that, arrests are symbolic and justice remains a mirage.

Border security is another urgent need. Most weapons that fuel banditry slip through porous crossings. Nigeria must work with neighbors to shut down these pipelines. Land-related violence also requires political solutions, not just force. Mediation, appropriate compensation, and clear land-use rules reduce the incentives that drive young men into militias. Hostage-response doctrine must become professional rather than improvised. Negotiation techniques, controlled information flow and disciplined rescue plans make the difference between life and death. Consistency will also help reduce the perception that outcomes depend on political connections.

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Finally, Nigeria needs long-term reforms that rebuild state legitimacy. Courts in affected regions must be strengthened. Corruption in security procurement must be tackled openly. Economic and social investments should target the communities most vulnerable to recruitment. Deradicalization and rehabilitation programs need to be credible and monitored so they do not become revolving doors for hardened fighters.

President Tinubu recognizes the role of international partners— the United States, UK, EU, AU and ECOWAS can offer intelligence support, training and humanitarian aid. The guiding principles for both Nigeria and external partners are simple. Transparency builds trust. Communities must be at the center of any plan. Messaging should calm tensions, not inflame them. And strategies should be flexible enough to adapt as conditions change.

As a people, we are facing one of the most delicate national-security moments in our democratic history. We must not despair; crisis also creates opportunity. President Tinubu’s ongoing efforts can be a turning point, if it pushes us as a country toward deeper reforms, honest partnerships, and unity of purpose. The government deserves credit for the foregoing actions. What comes next will determine whether these efforts become the start of a wider reset or simply another chapter in a long cycle of violence.

Ademola-Olateju, a former Ondo Commissioner for Information, is Director of New Media and Corporate Services for All Progressives Congress (APC)