Just six days to the September 10, 2016 Edo State Governorship Election, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, captures the major issues that will help determine the winner. He also reports on the strengths and weaknesses of the leading candidates and political parties
The electoral umpire has blown the big whistle. The final lap of the intriguing race has commenced. Welcome to the week of the much discussed Governorship Election in Edo State. As would be expected, the ultimate crown is the plum seat of Adams Oshiomhole, known widely as the Comrade Governor.
So, the primary question is who, amongst the 19 governorship candidates contesting the election, will succeed Oshiomhole as governor of the South-South state?
The intrigues that trailed the primaries and the campaigns have confirmed so far that the stakes are high; so also the expectations and the challenges.
The issues:
Given the complexities of Edo State politics, keen observers and informed political analysts, while acknowledging the varied interests in the state, as represented by the participation of 19 political parties, have narrowed the contest to a clear fight between the big two; a form of renewal of the age-old political rivalry between radical elements and the conservative elites as is now represented by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively. It is a grand battle that pre-dates the emergence of Oshiomhole in the politics of Edo State. Before Oshiomhole contested and won the election on the ticket of APC in 20…, PDP firmly held the power in the state, even as it produced from the state some of the most powerful political grandmasters at the national level, like Chief Tony Aninih, described within the then ruling party as ‘Mr. Fix it.’
Power changed hands, when the then labour leader, Oshiomhole, led the radical elements to dislodge the godfathers. Though he has not only succeeded in holding power since then, but has, according to insiders, firmly altered the power equilibrium, thus dislodging the so-called natural Godfathers, PDP see this Saturday’s election as the D-Day to return to power in Edo State.
Many issues will combine to either fulfill the dreams of the PDP lords or that of Oshiomhole-led progressives to retain power. Investigation carried out by The Nation shows that the issues that will determine the result of the Edo election will, among others, include: the people’s reaction to the state’s political history vis-à-vis zonal agitations for power; Performance versus non-performance; Benin speaking factor; religion and the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates in the election.
Performance and non-performance:
Perhaps one of the most important factors in this Saturday’s election in Edo State will be how the people perceive performance of the two leading parties in government. This is because both PDP and APC have had a taste of governance of Edo State, and as some electorates put it during the week, the election is like asking one to assess the performance of PDP and APC when they ruled the state. “This is what we are being called upon to do next Saturday. We were here during the long years PDP ruled this state with the oil money. We are here as APC, led by the Comrade Governor, is governing this state. If we are allowed to vote freely, our votes will be measured by our perception of how these two parties performed in the state. If you ask me, that’s the issue at stake,” said Dr. Eugene Esele, a Lagos based political analyst from Edo State.
So, although APC’s Oshiomhole and the former governor, Lucky Igbinedion of PDP are not candidates in this Saturday’s election, their performance while in office will likely be one of the major yardsticks that would be used to assess the candidates of the party. Acknowledging this, APC’s candidate, Godwin Obaseke said: “their track record was so bad that in their ten years they had nothing to show the people of the state. So, that being the fact on ground, it has been easy for me to appeal to the voters to vote for me as APC candidate and my running mate Philip Shuaibu.” In Obaseke’s campaigns across the state, he had carefully explained to the people the need to continue the good work Oshiohmole-led APC government has been doing. This request has continually received applause.
In the case of PDP, the alleged non-performance of Igbinedion while in office had remained an albatross on the neck of Pastor Ize-Iyamu. The allegation is so open and widely acknowledged that during the re-election campaign of Igbinedion, his father had acknowledged it and pleaded to the electorates that when a son fails in an examination, he should be allowed to repeat the class. Governor Igbinedion was given another chance but his critics, till date, swear he performed abysmally. Ize-Iyamu, who also played a major role in the government as at that time, has been quoted as explaining that though he was a senior officer in the PDP government in the state, he was not the governor per se, even as he promised to do better than what his former principal did. How this record will impact in the performance of PDP in the forthcoming election remains to be seen. As for APC, if performance is the only factor, it is sure to pick the plum seat for continuity.
Political History:
Taking cognizance of the passion expressed by some electorates during the campaigns, and how the leading political parties have reacted to it so far, it seems obvious that the political history of the state will also play a significant role in the result of this Saturday’s election. It would be recalled that Benins constitute about 50 percent of the total population of the state. This means that any candidate that hopes to win this election must get reasonable percentage of the votes of the region. To understand how this factor will favour either APC’s candidate or PDP’s candidate, one will amongst others, look back into the recent history of elections in the area, like the intrigues that played out in 2007 between the interests of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Chief Tony Anenih and how their conflicting interests then affected the result of the governorship election in Edo. Insiders said the effect of those intrigues on the politics of the area is still fresh and relevant.
This added to the well articulated zonal agitations for power will help to determine the result of the election. It would be recalled that Edo-Central, which however has fewer voting population, made passionate appeal to be allowed to present the current governor since Igbinedion and Oshiomhole, from Edo-… and Edo… respectively have governed the state. When Prof. Osunbur from Edo Central got elected, he lost the mandate in court to Oshiomhole. Although the candidates of both APC and PDP, Obaseke and Ize-Iyamu, are not from this zone, investigation shows that APC-led government may have made great impact by the choice of a lawmaker from the Central as the Speaker of the state House of Assembly.
Religion
Another factor that may be considered is religion. Recently, Governor Osiomhole’s Chief Press Secretary, Peter Okhiria, in a press statement, accused PDP candidate, Ize-Iyamu, a senior pastor in The Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), of converting a church building to campaign office.
This campaign against Ize-Iyamu’s attempt to unfairly use religious factor peaked when pictures of his campaign posters, pasted on the walls of the zonal headquarters of the church in Benin, were published in some national newspapers.
Speaking through his campaign organisation, Ize- Iyamu said, ”Governor Adams Oshiomhole and his puppet APC candidate, Godwin Obaseki, should not drag RCCG into their dirty, unholy politics.
“The allegation is a cheap blackmail from those who want to bring the name of the church into disrepute, and they will surely fail.” Ize-Iyamu added, ”Why can’t pastors be part of our efforts to rescue Edo State?
Aside these factors, the experience and personality coupled with the strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates will also go a long way in determining the winner of the election.
Osagie Ize-Iyamu:
Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the PDP governorship candidate was a Chief of Staff and former Secretary to the Edo State Government under former governor Lucky Igbinedion. He is also a pastor with the Redeemed Christian Church of God and a lawyer by profession.
While his membership of a popular Pentecostal church may be an advantage, his critics say his association with the Igbinedion-led PDP government in Edo may affect him negatively. For example, many are alleging that if he wins, it would mean the return of Igbinedion to power.
However, our investigation shows that Ize-Iyamu is not just an experienced politician but as an insider puts it, he is “a damn good politician.” His critics, while not contesting his experience in politics, insist his election will mean the return of the godfathers in Edo. His major supporters and patrons, according to insiders, include the powerful Igbinedions and Chief Tony Anenih. So, though Ize-Iyamu, according to our findings, is strong in the Benin area and in Edo-South, one of his major headaches would be how to overcome the current resentment of his patrons.
Godwin Obaseki:
Mr. Godwin Obaseki, the APC candidate, was born in Benin City, Nigeria to the famous and illustrious Obaseki family. He attended the University of Ibadan where he obtained a BA in Classics. He later attended Columbia University and Pace University in New York and has an MBA in Finance.
Before his emergence in politics, he was a private-sector man. Highly rated in the stock exchange sector, where he owns a thriving business, Obaseke is one of the highly respected investment gurus in the country, as he services major blue chip businesses. His supporters says, Obaseke, who heads the economic team is an asset to the Adams Oshiomhole-led Edo State Government as he is the one “who knows how to generate money.” It was under such sound economic advice that Edo, under Oshiomhole raised the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) from a mere N500m to over N1.5billion.
So, one of the factors that will go for the APC candidate is his sound knowledge of economy. APC is saying that the general economic trend demands not just a good politician as the governor, but a man with sound knowledge of economy.
The challenge Obaseke will have to contend with however is the allegation that he will be Oshiomhole’s puppet since he enjoyed open support of the outgoing governor. To this, Obaseke said, “I keep saying to them that if I was a stooge for the last eight years and that led to the amount of development and progress that we have made, then if being a stooge will lead to the progress of my people I rather be a stooge to my people than being a none stooge that will steal our common wealth. It is nonsense. Also what are the issues: the issues are about development, about utilising our wealth for our common good. So, if being a stooge means utilising public funds for the betterment of the people of Edo State, if being a stooge means I am not going to meet with any godfather to decide on how my budget will be implemented, then I will rather be such a stooge.”
Our investigation shows that APC’s Obaseke is very strong in Benin and in Edo-North. We also gathered that Oshiomhole’s appreciable performance in Edo-Central, where he lost woefully in 2007 election but did comparatively well in the last governorship election, has given APC increasing support there.
Campaign punches:
During the campaigns, the two parties had been given punches here and there. There is every indication that the parties’ and candidates’ performances will depend, to some extent on how they are able to respond to these criticisms. For example, the PDP tried to hype the bad economic realities of today, blaming APC. Obaseke and his party, which blamed the former governments of PDP for the economic difficulties, will need to convince electorates that they have what it takes to reverse the economic difficulties.
On their side, APC accused PDP failing to develop the state in all the years that it held sway in the State House. Unless PDP and its candidate, Ize-Iyamu has tenable answer to this, the electorates may ignore their pleas to give them a second chance.
From these, it seems certain that the Saturday, September 10, 2016 Edo State Governorship Election is poised to be not just intriguing but issue-based.
