In an article on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s boldness in embarking on major economic reforms early in his administration, Bamidele Ademola-Olateju invoked Robert Frost’s famous poem, The Road Not Taken to show that neither previous Nigerian Presidents nor his major competitors for the presidency in 2023 had the audacity to choose the path Tinubu chose to follow (see Bamidele Ademola-Olateju, Follow Who Know Road, The Nation, October 15, 2025).
Tinubu’s chosen path (encoded in his manifesto, Renewed Hope 2023) entails four bold reforms, among others: (1) removal of fuel subsidy; (2) harmonisation of the foreign exchange market; (3) tax reform; and (4) infrastructural development. Although these reforms have interconnected effects on the economy, I will discuss them separately.
But, first, let’s briefly look at the macro-economic effects of President Tinubu’s reforms, that is, the large-scale or general economic factors, such as subsidy, interest rates, taxation, and infrastructure as they affect fiscal policy, inflation, price stability, employment levels, and so on. When the effects of President Tinubu’s reforms are assessed from the perspective of macroeconomic factors, the result is a positive outlook.
A quick demonstration is the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market, which, for the first time, exceeded the N100 trillion mark this week. Similarly, Nigeria’s Eurobond issuance was massively oversubscribed. The $2.3 billion target was met four time over! These examples demonstrate international confidence in President Tinubu’s reform agenda. Furthermore, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation, which climbed to 34.19 percent in 2024, has been cut into less than half at 14.5 percent in 2025. It is no wonder then that domestic and international economists as well as global financial institutions have endorsed and praised President Tinubu’s economic reforms.
However, as far as ordinary folks are concerned, the reforms are only successful if they translate to pocket issues for them. The effects on day-to-day market decisions of individuals are the microeconomic effects of the reforms. The following review is just for demonstration purposes only. It is by no means exhaustive (for more detailed reviews, see Sunday Dare’s Tinubu’s policies yielding positive impact, The Nation, September 21, 2025; and Nigeria: Close of year accounting-sequencing from reform to relief, The Nation, December 30, 2025).
Removal of fuel subsidy
Undoubtedly, initial hardships followed the removal of fuel subsidy, leading the price of petrol to climb as high as N1,250 per litre. The result was an immediate hike in transport costs, which affected the cost of goods and services. Today, the litre price has fallen below N800, thanks in part to Dangote Refinery, which exposed the shenanigans of NNPCL and its subsidiaries. True, transport unions have hardly reduced transport costs for passengers in line with the reduction in fuel prices, but drastic reductions should set in soon, especially as the holiday season is rapping up. Otherwise, passengers should begin to call commercial drivers to order.
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However, even more importantly, the removal of fuel subsidy has released more money to be shared by federal, state, and local governments. Today, states are getting more than double their allocations when fuel subsidy was being paid. Heavens might not have fallen over subsidy removal, but it is well known that beneficiaries of the scam (some of whom were not even in the oil business at all) have been fighting back one way or another.
Equally significant is the fact that this last December and the entire holiday season is the first in decades, when there were no queues at fuel stations or buying fuel at exorbitant prices from off-pump profiteers selling from jerrycans.
Harmonisation of the exchange rate
The immediate effects of the harmonisation of the exchange rate were similar to the removal of fuel subsidy. The former affected imported goods, while the latter affected the local markets directly. However, both converged to hike prices of consumer goods and services. The former in particular led to the devaluation of the Naira.
Fortunately, however, both also started stabilising about the same time. Today, both have witnessed a major downward trend: litre price of fuel from N1,250 to about N750 per litre, while the exchange rate has stabilised at about N1,450/1 dollar from a high of about 1,800/1 dollar. The stabilisation has been aided by rising external reserve, which has been beefed up from a mere $3 billion, when Tinubu assumed office, to about $45 billion today.
The cumulative effects of both reforms have eased headline inflation as indicated above as well as food inflation. The result is a downward trend in the prices of transport, food, and household goods. This is evident in super- and local markets and retail outlets nationwide. For example, in local markets in Akure, Ondo state, gari has come down from a high of N25,000 to N12,000 per igbeleri; rice from N90-95,000 to N60-6500 per bag; and vegetable oil from about N95,000 to N65,000 per garawa.
Tax reform
The restructuring of the tax system started gradually in 2023 and the implementation of the new tax policy began piecemeal in June 2025. Nevertheless, tax collection improved significantly even before the new tax policy went into effect. In 2025, the economy expanded by nearly 4 percent due to robust growth in non-oil sectors, including tax collection, agriculture, manufacturing, and trade.
For the first time in Nigerian history, a new tax law was enacted, which consolidated over 70 fragmented taxes into a unified, digitised system. Moreover, the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) is no more. It was rebranded into Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), capable of collecting tax on both domestic and foreign earnings. It is expected that this reform will lead to the collection of more taxes from various sources and boost national development.
Infrastructural development
President Tinubu has focused on two major types of infrastructure, namely, roads and power generation. He has completed many road projects inherited from the President Muhammadu Buhari administration (2015-2023), such as the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, the East-West Road, and as many as 135 road projects across Northern Nigeria, according to the Minister of Transport, Sai’du Alkali. In addition, work has been going on steadily on the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway.
True, only a few citizens may ply these roads, but many citizens are enjoying record power generation, the Presidential Metering Initiative, and the payment of legacy power-sector debt. For the first time in two years, a popular Akure welder, who closed shop two years ago for lack of power supply, is back at work. Recently, too, my household experienced 24-hour power supply a few times and an average of about 20-hour daily supply overall. As a result, our power generator has been dormant for months.
Political opponents and saboteurs
They are at work already, causing confusion and misleading the public about the dividends of these reforms. If they are not focusing on the initial hardships at the beginning of the reforms, they are busy distorting the new tax policy. I won’t be surprised if they ask voters during the campaigns to compare fuel price and exchange rate today with the rates in 2022 or even 2012. They won’t tell voters that if we had continued on the economic trajectory inherited by President Tinubu, the Nigerian economy would have been in a deep ditch by now.
