The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • History, competence and government

    History, competence and government

    Meritocracy  drives my thoughts and ruminations today and even then ,  I concede that the concept is not fool proof and is contextual in various political systems and societies . The  news from Nigeria that the presidency has asked Nigerian  youths to learn  history  and get educated to earn a  living  outside  government ,  because government has no more jobs  for them ,  to me ,  is an attempt at meritocracy . Similarly  the Muslim Muslim ticket of the ruling APC presidential candidate  is  a  step  , and a bold one at that  ,  in the direction  of meritocracy  and   the  promotion   of  competence  in  leadership   in Nigera .Outside Nigeria and specifically  in the UK  where the leadership  succession battle to replace lame duck PM Boris Johnson is raging , the foreign un English  names  being peddled as front runners bravely show a salute  to merit and competence in the context of British  colonial past and the resultant  change in British political  leadership in a multicultural  Britain . The  evolutionary  and   historical changes leading to these  developments ,   form the kernel  of our discussions today .

    The  issue of  youths looking for  jobs  in government in Nigeria has a North South dichotomy and is rooted in the educational  imbalance in Nigeria  , in which  the South has an edge and in the  political   power structure   in which Northern  youths , educated or not , see  government work   and jobs as a monopoly  of  Northerners  especially  in the federal   government   establishments . This  is a product  of history  , demography  and  colonialism  and  we shall dilate on this later . In  contrast  the Muslim Muslim  ticket is a pragmatic , competence assessment that  moves against  history on the basis  of  merit  that shouts loudly  that  the nation should  not be held  hostage to religion   forever  .Especially  as Nigeria , after all said and done ,  is constitutionally ,  a secular state . It  is necessary  in this piece today  to compare the emergence of colonial products as leaders in the UK  especially  in the race to replace Boris Johnson    as    leader  of the  Tories  and eventual   UK  PM   , with   the  emerging political  meritocracy  inherent in the Muslim/ Muslim  ticket of the ruling party , the APC  in   the 2023   presidential   elections in  Nigeria.

    In   terms  of history  and  regional  development  in  Nigeria ,   the  South  has  always  been ahead  of the North  educationally . This  was an accepted fact  by  the  regional  leaders  of the nation even as they  fought  the British  colonialists  for  our   Independence   which   came  in 1960  .The  Northern  regional  leaders namely the Sardauna of  Sokoto  , Sir Ahmadu Bello and the   first PM of Nigeria Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa were school teachers and did their best to make Northern  youths get educated to bridge the huge educational  gap  between  the North and South . That was the origin of the belief that government work  at federal  level was meant for Northern  youths . That  educational  strategy  was not pursued by   the   military  and   elected    successors  of these pioneer Northern regional leaders and led to the neglect  of modern education in the North which  eventually   produced  the cruel  emergence  of Boko Haram  terrorism ,   which  said ‘ No to Western education ‘  . That  is the reality  that the North and the presidency  has woken up to and is now telling Northern  youths ,    which  it mistakes for Nigerian youths   generally ,  that government has  no more   jobs  for them   , a fact  which   non Northern  Nigerian  youths  have always  known  ,  because  they  have never been the beneficiaries   of government jobs at  federal  level  anytime  , till now .

    In the  old   Western Region the late  Chief Obafemi Awolowo  pursued  an educational policy of free education which  put  the region at the forefront of educational  development in Nigeria.  In  the East  ,  Zik and later Michael Okpara did the same and the North was left lagging even as it clung  to political power,,  based on demography and census  ,  not backed by climatology , geography  and the endless North South  Migration based on economic  and water needs for human survival  . This  too culminated in the huge  insecurity  bedeviling     the nation today  with the Fulani herdsmen  clashes with  farmers in the South  generally . In  the East the educational  drive  later  lost  momentum especially  after the civil war  when the Eastern youths embraced  business and jettisoned educational  achievements . While Eastern youths still excelled at educational achievements  somewhat ,  a new genre emerged of successful  , scarcely  educated   rich  youths   whose  pride  resided  in marrying educated graduates  as wives   since government jobs  was never an  option any way and at any time   for them .

    On  the Muslim Muslim ticket  which I address  henceforth  with its acronym MMt   it  is not necessary  to  vilify  , attack  or   defend   religion  to  justify  the presidential  choice of the Jagaban and APC .It  is a reality and a challenge that  both the nation and the party must  accept  and promote to win the 2023 presidential  elections . There  are  however  some obvious facts of geography and history  to highlight  based on the  background of the presidential  candidate  and his running mate especially as they come from the SW and NE .

    In   the SW especially  with the Yorubas religion is not a big deal  as most  families have both Muslims and Christians  as  members   and relatives  and they  jointly  attend and promote their religions and  their  activities  together at Xmas , Ramadan and Ileya . Religion  may be an opium  of the masses elsewhere but certainly not  in the SW of Nigeria . Napoleon  was quoted  saying that religion was invented by the rich to prevent being killed by the poor  but that is not the case in the SW or  even Nigeria till the advent of Boko Haram  in the NE where the Jagaban’s  running  mate  comes  from  and   I have  some interesting observations on the area .

    The  Kanuris dominate the NE of Nigeria and  they  are the only area in the North not conquered  by  the Sokoto Caliphate   jihad  . I did  my national  service in the NE and served at Gwoza  and  Mubi and  can attest that the people there are friendly and accommodating . There are ECWA Christians  in the area and they promote their  religion without harassment  till Boko  Haram  terrorism  came in .The APC presidential  candidate is a two  term  governor of Borno  State and is well placed to know the menace and perhaps the solution to the terror of Boko  Haram . He  certainly  must   have some ideas on   how  to realistically   and  politically  arrest  the menace of Boko  Haram at federal  level  and that would be a huge advantage for    a Tinubu presidency . This  is a matter of competence ,  merit  and  knowledge that should not be marred unnecessarily   with   extravagant  religious   considerations and  bias   given its huge  security  implications  for Nigeria now and in  the immediate  future .  To  me the MMt  is a political  innovation and change necessary  to move our political  system  forward   objectively and  should be applauded and promoted  patriotically  as a step in the right  direction  for our fledgling democracy .

    In  the  contest to choose Conservative  leader in the UK names like that of former chancellor Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Nadim Zahawi have surfaced and  no eyebrows  were raised because these leaders  are regarded first and foremost as Britons and  appreciated  as  products of migration , colonialism and a multicultural Britain . Perhaps Boris Johnson  was banking on such names being  unacceptable  in the British  establishment and that   may have prompted his careless and arrogant leadership that led to his fall  as PM  even  though  he will  be in power till a new leaders is elected .  The  leadership  race in the Conservative Party  in Britain shows full steam  meritocracy at work and I find that worthy  of emulation by any  political  system that aims at objectivity and  leadership  by  the best  hands available . In  a way  I think  that  is the direction of the MMt  ticket of the Jagaban in Nigeria for the 2023 presidential  elections  and  to me really ,   it is  a winning  ticket  worthy of support by  all Nigerians who value progress and good ,vintage leadership  , especially  in these  testy  times and  days .

     

     

  • Politics, geography and security

    Politics, geography and security

    Human  values , perceptions and expectations globally are changing dramatically ,  basically  because the world  because of the internet and information technology has become a  ‘ global village’ . The  little  hand phone has become a mine of  information and knowledge  such that  someone once said that  knowledge has become democratized in a way  that even  universities  and professors have  no exclusive  monopoly  as before,  over their many  disciplines and  subjects . To  me it is a withering of geography as we know it physically or the disappearance of national borders and boundaries  that use to control  migrations and immigrations globally . That  perspective is the engine room of our discussion today .

    In   Nigeria the choice of presidential  candidates has shown the importance and relevance of both geography and religion  in a  multiethnic and multicultural nation like  ours which,  because of a strive for equity and fairness in the distribution of the national wealth and largesse, . cannot afford  to  ignore  its geopolitical  zones and spread . Yet  it   is often forgotten in making  national  appointments and  acknowledging our diversity that values in these various geographical zones vary not only in terms of the six zones as we know them territorially  but also in terms of  the people  and tribes in the constituent  entities and nations in each zone . Thus making choices on geographical or  religious grounds is just  the tip of the iceberg  in arriving or achieving a national  concensus or  understanding  on who is or not a fair choice in leading the nation as President or Vice  President  .  This   is because though  geography  matters  it comes a close second to culture in fusing a nation because values in various tribes and ethnic groups prevail over anything else in political  leadership and expectations .

    Today  however we look at human  values in various  settings with the above topic  in mind .  We  examine the issue of  security in Nigeria especially  with  the  attack  on the Kuje prison facility  near  Abuja  and the visit of the president to the prison thereafter .  We    examine   a rare  security  alarm   by both  the US  and UK  security  outfits   on the danger  posed   to  global  security   by the Chinese  government under the   leadership of the Chinese Communist Party .  We  look at how mendacity is decimating the cabinet system  in Britain’s Parliamentary democracy under the collapsing leadership of  PM  Boris Johnson .  We wonder why Nigerians think that a Nigerian  politician like Peter Obi  a political  light weight  nationally ,    can replicate  what happened  some time in France and Ukraine’s presidential elections ,   in the coming 2023 presidential  elections in Nigeria .

    Read Also: Politics, religion and 2023

    According  to reports the Nigerian  president visited Kuje prison  after the attack  on the facility   and  complained about the security lapse that  led to the attack  and flew  out  to an international conference  immediately  .This  was after a convoy that  was going to the president’s  hometown of  Daura  preparatory  to Sallah  celebrations was attacked   by  some   terrorists . It  is my view that the president should be careful  in that the terrorists  seem  to know how to infiltrate our state security  network . Reportedly in Kuje  , Boko Haram came  to release their  leaders confined there and reportedly they freed them .  These  same terrorists have links with those involved in the  recent Kaduna train attacks  and they still  hold hostages  while asking that their leaders in prison should be freed and from all  indications they seem to know where their leaders are being kept .Which  showed that they have inside information on the security  of their leaders . That  is dangerous  for the security of the nation and the president should  just  fix the loopholes in our security apparatus on his return from the international  conference and after Sallah  , if  not before .As     the saying   goes  -‘  a  stitch  in time saves nine  ‘  and   life   has   no duplicate  , especially where presidential  and state security are both  so  precariously   involved . 

    The  two  leading security  outfits of western civilization  , the   US  FBI   and UK ‘s   M 15 freezed  geography  literally as  their leaders gave a rare  joint  press  conference  in London  to alert the world on the immense threat  to global peace and stability  posed  by China, its leaders and the governing Chinese Communist Party .They accused China of stealing western technology and interfering in elections both now and in the past in both nations and putting in place strategies and plans   to rebuff or contain  economic sanctions expected against  it  , similar  to those Russia is suffering from over its invasion of Ukraine , if and when , as expected China attacks or invades Taiwan .  The  security  bosses addressed an assembly of businessmen and warned that global  business would be affected as never before if China attacks Taiwan . They  conveniently forgot the geography, history  and politics of China  which  holds  Taiwan  as an integral  part of its  territory . They also forgot that China is still  reeling from the trade sanctions  of the Trump  presidency and is heaving a sigh of relief that Trump  is out of power and  China  is chummier with the Biden presidency   ,    obviously because of the underhand deals of the US president’s  son,  Hunter ,   in both China and Ukraine, a deal  not  covered by CNN and the anti Trump  media  in the US   both  before and after the 2020 US presidential election  The two security  chiefs seem  to have forgotten   too  that  China  values  law  and order  more than  their own  political and ideological  systems especially in the US  where gender equality , sex  ,   gun rights  and   abortion   have   replaced  patriotism  ,   good governance and general  security  .

    Similarly  in Britain,  the  PM  has  lost  credibility not only  in Parliament  but with  both his party and the opposition . The issue of sexual harassment  by an MP he  just  appointed has led to  the resignation of many of his ministers and his cabinet is about to collapse . Yet  the stubborn PM refuses to resign saying he has a great mandate from the electorate and he cannot abandon that now especially  now that there is war in Europe in Ukraine . He  even  tossed geography overboard  when  he refused  to consider a letter from Scotland’s First Minister to reconsider another referendum on Scotland’s  Independence saying that the Scots have rejected that recently  ,  and that  should stand for now . In  Britain  where parliament is run   mostly on unwritten rules , values and tradition ,  Boris Johnson  poses a great threat  to political stability because of his penchant for serial mendacity on many things he has said and declined  publicly . I  once  expressed a grudging respect for his confidence and audacity in the face of many  odds but  now I fear  for his political  life as leader in a political system which  has little or no respect  for  leaders who lack scant   or  no credibility . I think  Boris Johnson’s days as UK’S PM are  numbered   indeed as  he  juggles lies,  amnesia  and excuses to  remain  in power by all means .

    Whilst  most  Nigerians are resigned to a battle royal  in the 2023 presidential  elections between Atiku of the PDP and the Jagaban  who is the front runner and my favourite to win , it is amazing that some people in the social   media are touting a political  light weight Peter Obi as an alternative . This reminds me of the  saying that if wishes  were  horses beggars would ride cars . This is a  man  whose negotiations for a running mate has blown  up   in his face overnight . I think  his twitter and mass media supporters are  just dreaming  of the way  that Emanuel  Macron emerged from obscurity  to become the French president and  repeated the feat in his relection this year . Or  they watch  the Ukranean President  too much on CNN and  relish the fact that  he was a mere TV actor  before  getting  elected   as president  unbelievably in Ukraine before the Russian invasion of his country . But  is that  possible in Nigeria ? I  say  no , categorically  because Nigeria  is immensely  different and  more diverse than both France and Ukraine in many  respects . Nigeria  is very much ‘ work  in progress’ and the presidential candidates of the two major parties  know the  nation like the back of their hands and   I believe that the Jagaban can fix many of  our problems especially  those of security , geography , and  the economy ,  . This is because  , as I have written recently  ,   of his experience in governance  and leadership in Lagos state which houses Nigeria’s  commercial capital . Lagos  is mini Nigeria and is a place where millions of Nigerians flock   daily  to’ find gold on the  streets ‘ of Lagos  like  the young   William   Whittington  sought for on the streets of London  in the  famous English   fable ,   ages  ago .The Jagaban  , if given the opportunity at the polls  will  fix  Nigeria’s many political potholes  and security  minefields ,  because he has the experience of keeping Lagos safe and secure  for booming business for all Nigerians irrespective of their state of origin , religion , geographical  extraction and security  concerns . For  once ,  I believe,  with him at the helm ,   we are about to  get it right and move on . This   certainly  is not a time for extravagant   experiment  with political  minions  or  lightweights ,  who  generate even more security risks  and   concerns , than  opportunities    or  experience to get us out of the rot  we are dismally  struggling in,  for  now  . A word , certainly   ,  is enough for the wise .

  • Laws, interpretations and morals

    Laws, interpretations and morals

    It is a sociological  fact that the laws of societies originate from the customs , norms and traditions of such entities  . Either   with   religions or political systems there  are clear sanctions for violations of such laws . In nations at large and in modern times  , courts adjudicate in civil , criminal and international matters to interprete the laws and apply   penalties for constitutional  breaches  according to the statutes  of  the applicable law . I look  at the topic of today with the spectacles  of two  wise cracks . The first is that the ‘ mills  of justice may grind slowly but they grind exceedingly well ‘ . The second is that ‘  power corrupts but absolute power corrupts absolutely ‘

    Two judgements or constitutional interpretations led to today’s  topic of discussion . Another event of a religious  tone  helped  to  beef  the content of discussion  and a new  law  in the offing to prevent frivolous  interpretation of human rights,  in a nation known for championing such rights ,  provide the guiding lights for our discussion .Let  me now reveal these  catalysts of our topic .

    In  the US ,  purportedly  ‘  God’s   own  country ‘ and whose motto is ‘ In  God  we trust ‘  the Supreme Court of the US – SCOTUS  –  overturned an  abortion law  and  right   to  it  that  had been in existence    federally  for 50  years by ruling that it was based on a constitutional  right that does not exist in the constitution .In  Nigeria  the Supreme Court ruled  that the Nigerian president cannot approbate and reprobate on a bill  that he had given  assent to and does not have the power to tell  the National Assembly what  laws to   make because law making is out of his constitutional   powers . At  the Vatican  in Rome , Italy ,   the Catholic Pope  gave  communion to the US Speaker of the House  of Representatives who  has been banned by the Catholic Church  in the US because as a Catholic  she supports the right to abortion which is against the Catholic Church doctrine or religious laws . In  Britain Parliament  is being prepared to make a law that  would  limit wild interpretations of human rights in the light of the stoppage of the new government   policy  of transferring illegal  migrants to Rwanda which was declared illegal  by the International Court on Human Rights  -ICHR – to which the UK is a signatory  . Undoubtedly  ,  all  these issues revolve around interpretations of laws and rights in the society and especially in the political  system and should be  judged by the well  known and tested traditions , norms and culture  of    such  societies  in  their various  locations and contexts .

    We  start with US where the Roe vs Wade decision  in 1973  gave abortion rights to women federally across the US . The SCOTUS has not cancelled abortion rights as is being wrongly peddled by the US President and Speaker but  it has ruled that state legislatures have the power and not  the courts to make legislation  to  allow  ,  ban or  regulate  abortion .  The  judgement  asked women to  try and lobby and vote to power in their various state legislature representatives who  can pursue  their choice on abortion ,  either for or against . Those  against  the overturning of the abortion rights law have been  calling  for the heads of the  majority  Conservative judges in the SCOTUS while  religious groups especially  the Catholic Church   are   thanking God  for the overturning of the abortion rights law .

    It  is in this light  that  we look at the giving of communion to the Speaker by the Pope  in the Vatican when   the US Catholic Church  had   given  instructions not  to give communion to the Speaker Nancy Pelosi because  she is Catholic  but is a powerful  supporter of abortion which  is against the Church’s moral  laws .Even the circumstances  surrounding   the giving of communion to Pelosi are  dubious and showcase a misuse of power . Pelosi  was said to be on vacation in Italy , a private issue but must have been given communion because of her political status as Speaker in the US Congress  in spite  of the ban at   home in the US . The  Pope himself  has been  accused of giving a wrong signal on abortion by giving the communion to Pelosi in spite of the ban on her by the US Catholic Church . Worse  still ,  the Pope recently ,  according to reports ,  bypassed the US  bishop  who sanctioned Pelosi  on abortion and appointed as Cardinal  ,  another junior   bishop  from the US   who  was being ordained  as Cardinal at   the ceremony in  which Pelosi  received communion from the Pope . Critics  have made  bitter  comments on the receipt of Communion by Pelosi   and  it remains  to be seen how the Pope too will extricate himself from the  smear  of condoning  US  powerful US politicians ,  in this case both the US president and the Speaker of the lower house , who  are both Catholics  but are flouting the Church’s  moral  rules on abortion publicly and with  such   impunity .

    In  Nigeria,  the Supreme Court ruling against the President and his Attorney General on section 84/12  in the new Electoral Act   simply affirms the separation of  powers inherent in the Nigerian constitution. Which is that  it is the duty of the legislature  to  make  laws and not that of the presidency .Having assented to the Electoral Act  it is not the duty of the president to send it back for an amendment as making laws is the duty of the legislature according to the Nigerian constitution . This  is constitutionalism  at  work and one can  be proud of the  Nigerian  Supreme court on this .The  presidency too should  have the guts to take the National Assembly  to Court up to the Supreme Court when it comes to approval  of the budget where  the legislature is infamous for  padding the budget to suit its constituencies  project and thus ballooning expenditure it is expected to vet and prune  , before returning it to the presidency for implementation . That would be a great day too for constitutionalism and separation of powers in Nigeria .

    We  end up with Britain’s battle with immigration and on which  it has evolved a Rwandan solution now being thwarted by  the International Court on Human Rights –  ICHR –  based in Strasboug  . I called the UK a rogue  state for flouting International  law on the matter last week  but  the government is making amends . It  is planning to go to Parliament  to make laws  that will make the rulings of the British Supreme Court  supreme over that of any International Court . In Britain   traditionally  Parliament is supreme in making laws and if such laws are in place the British Supreme Court rulings will give the government full powers  locally   and internationally , to implement its policies like the one in Rwanda stalled by the  ICHR . According to the UK  Deputy  PM  the new law called ‘ The Bill of Rights ‘ will  strengthen ‘ our British  tradition of freedom while injecting  a healthy dose of common sense into the system’ He  reportedly told Parliament that the new law is to ‘ rein in elastic interpretations of human rights  that have developed through court rulings without meaningful democratic  oversight by the House  of Commons . ‘ It  is a way  of telling the international community that Britain will  go on with its Rwanda solution because it is only a sovereign state  that knows where the shoe pinches on migration . And  that on human  rights the saying is apt that   its  freedom ends where Britain’s  nose  and  sovereignty  begin . That  is vintage moral and  legalistic  pragmatism . It  has my admiration , albeit grudgingly .

  • Culture, religion and wars

    Culture, religion and wars

    The Muslim Muslim  presidential ticket  of  the APC in Nigeria’s coming 2023 presidential election is the arrow head of our today’s topic in a global  perspective . The Russian invasion of Ukraine   may  be better known globally  than the massacre of  over  40 Christian   martyrs in Owo town  in  South West  Nigeria  on Trinity Sunday , but it is my intention today  to show that they are birds of the same feather and reflect deeply the negative influence of religion and history on  contemporary  politics  in the testy times we live in  nowadays , both at home  and abroad

    It  is my goal  today to  use  the latest  and powerful historical  excuse given  by the invader  of  Ukraine for   the invasion,  as well  as  the relationship  of the  present US  government   with  Ukraine in supporting Ukraine without  going to war  with Russia ,  to  illustrate   that  divergent  moral ,  cultural    and  religion values are  at the core of  the disputes  that have  led  to the war .I  will  also  show that   in Nigeria , the experience  of  the Christian Muslim  ticket in   the governorship  elections  of Lagos state  as well as the  experience and sufferance of the  2023  APC presidential candidate with   the APC presidential   ticket in 2015 ,   may  have   led  to the pragmatism of the adoption of the Muslim Muslim ticket  of the party for the 2023 presidential  elections  .  The  evolvement  of these events in the Russian  invasion of Ukraine , the reaction of the US and EU ,   and the political  odyssey of the Jagaban , the rugged and  politically  wily presidential  candidate of the APC in the 2023  presidential elections form the kernel of our discussion today .

    It  is becoming apparent that terrorism and religion are  not strange bedfellows  in shaping world politics as we know it today . In  Nigeria Boko Haram  has been bedeviling  our politics for so long  yet it is almost a taboo in political  discussion to say Boko Haram is a religious menace  not to talk of calling it a Muslim insurgency . The same goes   for  the Fulani herdsmen incursion or invasion of both the North and South of Nigeria . Yet  unless we want to behave like the proverbial   ostrich  with its head buried in the sand   thinking that no one is seeing it  , that for now , is the reality of our politics and partly the origin of the present Muslim Muslim ticket of  the ruling party . I am  not saying the party is hostage to religion or terrorism  but  it has ,  like  the little  reed ,   bent in the direction of a deadly  wind  so that it will   not be uprooted ;  unlike ,  the foolish oak that stood stubbornly in the path  of the roaring wind and was uprooted .  I will illustrate with   some  examples

    Read Also; Much ado about Muslim-Muslim ticket

    In Lagos state  , the Ambode governorship emerged   based on the fact that there was palpable political  resentment that Lagos  was being  seen as a Muslim state yet  there are as many Christians as Muslims in Lagos  then   and now . Till    then ,  however  , Lagos had  one  well    indigenous  Christian governor , a military one at that ,  Bolaji   Johnson  ,     later   Otedola   , and three   elected Muslim ones ,  from Jakande , to the Jagaban and BRF .  The evolvement   and election of Ambode , a  Christian  , solved the problem and reduced the political tension and Lagos moved on politically and  peacefully .

    At  the Federal level  in 2015 the Jagaban   bowed  to the wind of the Muslim Muslim  ticket  and chose a surrogate   a  Christian who almost  uprooted   him from achieving his present status of presidential  candidate .In  effect  then ,   even though Nigeria is multiethnic  ,   religion  still  holds the ace in shaping our politics  because we know that ignoring that fact can lead to war .  That  is like living with one’s heart  standing in his mouth  but that is  our lot and how long we can continue  in such precarious political existence ,  is indeed our  funeral as a sovereign entity  .  Yet  life must  continue and as the Marxist slogan  boldly says  ‘A luta Continua’ ,   meaning ‘ the struggle  continues’

    Almost  similarly but in a different context let  us briefly  digest the  unexpected but escalating Russian Invasion of  Ukraine  . Russian President Vladmir  Putin  has finally told the truth on the  rationale  for   his  invasion . He   said  he  is trying    to   imitate  history   to do what Peter  the  Great a famous Russian Czar did in acquiring territories and expanding the Russian Empire in the past . So ,  the security threat he mentioned before  , about Ukraine not joining the EU was  balderdash .Anyway Ukraine  did  not join the EU but Russia still  invaded .

    As  for the present US  government,  the president’s son was involved in a business deal in Ukraine and the nitty  gritty of that was what former President Donald Trump  was trying to find out and for which  he was impeached by  the US  lower House but cleared  in the senate . Now  the US Biden Administration is spending billions in defending Ukraine  and the vast military industrial  business complex of the US  is flourishing    abroad at a time when  the US economy at   home    is at its highest  inflation rate    ever ,   stemming from the  huge  funds voted for the pandemic but which  the government  is using instead to promote its own ideological and cultural agenda   and   wars . These cultural  traits are  at  the core of Russian resentment of American  hegemony in world  politics and China  too is in league with the Russians  in   the loathing of these American and EU traits , values and  ideologies .

    EU and American values revolve around Climate Change , sexual  orientation and  the concepts of equality and discrimination . The  US  in particular is trying to close down its oil industry to further the goals of climate change . The price of oil gas and petrol is at its highest in the US  which    has enormous oil resources and reserves but has  stopped giving out  licences  for oil exploration  . In  fact  it is trying to buy oil from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia which are nations with which the US has serious ideological  and cultural  differences .  In     education  American  youths are being given the orientation that they can claim  any sex they  like  regardless of their biological  sex and society should accept that as their  human rights and  charge those  who resent that with  hatred or discrimination . This  has created a cultural war  between  the two  major  political  parties with the Democrats in power since 2020 trying  to change American culture  and   educational  system  to suite their socialist  ideology and orientation and the Republicans taking them  to  court to challenge such Democrats governmental designs .

    At  the height of this is the issue of abortion which  the US  Supreme Court ,  in which the judges have a conservative majority  ,  is about to overturn an existing law which gives the right of abortion to women generally . But the Democrats in government have refused  to arrest  protesters harassing  Supreme Court  judges in their  homes as the US Attorney General , a  former judge too  said  the protesters are exercising their democratic rights .Which is like blackmailing the Supreme Court on abortion  as a man has been  arrested  for attempting to assassinate  a Supreme Court judge  Brett  Kavanaugh  . The Chief Justice  of the US Supreme Court has however  assured that the Supreme Court will  not be deterred in giving the right judgement on any  issue before it including abortion .So  abortion has become not only a sexual war but a judicial and political  one too .Of  significant  importance is that  both the US president and House of Representatives Speaker are Catholics and the Catholic Church globally and in the US forbids abortion  but  both Biden and Speaker Pelosi support abortion and the US Catholic Church  has approved that they should not receive Holy Communion as they are against the Church  policy  on abortion . The  power of religion in US politics is vividly  demonstrated on the abortion issue and is becoming a serious political war that is at the heart of the coming November 2022 US  mid term elections   as well as the 2024 US presidential  elections .It  is an exciting political and religious engagement and war worth waiting for indeed .

  • Colonialism, consequences and legacies

    Colonialism, consequences and legacies

    The recent two  primaries  of the two  major parties in Nigeria show clearly the nature of Nigeria’s federation ,its colonial legacies and the   changing   interface   of  the concept of zoning and balancing of positions and appointments in our national politics . Whilst  this was going on our  former colonial  overlord which merged Northern and Southern Nigeria  into  a  Nigerian state  in 1914 ,  sprang a surprise on the  international community by diverting unwanted migrants , products  of its colonial piracy and pillage  ,   now  seeking asylum in Britain  ,  to Rwanda  with  the swift agreement of that African  nation and the provision of ample funds to finance  the novel and most unexpected project or  policy , if one can really call it that .

    As  Nigeria was trying to come  to terms with its slogan  of unity in diversity and the choice between religion and politics in the choice  of North South   ,  North North  ticket or Muslim Christian or Muslim Muslim  ticket  it is obvious  that  the legacies of British  colonialism has  not eroded the ageless description of Nigeria’s late political  sage , the intellectually   robust  Obafemi  Awolowo  who once famously  noted that Nigeria  was a mere geographical  expression  and  not   a true  nation . Our  history  ,  and the difficulties and problems of living amicably  together  always come  to the fore at election time . How these  recent presidential  primaries have gone peace fully  after all said and done  and the undertone in the choices of candidates form  the basis  of our discussion of the topic of the day .

    We    view  this   again  , in the light  of the international   law that  Britain  has clearly broken in  literally  cancelling asylum  for those fleeing  wars , against   what   international law  strictly  demands .  We  think   this smart way     of  protecting  British sovereignty and  national   interests   as   quite  underhand   and   we  see this frantic effort as   a  nemesis  for Britain’s  consequences of its colonial  past as the migrants  desperate  rush to  and choice of Britain is no more than a case of the chicken coming home   to  roost . This  , we shall explain in historical  and con temporary terms  today .

    On  Nigeria  ,we   look at  the emergence of Abubakar Atiku as PDP presidential  flag  bearer  and the   choice  of Delta state  governor Ifeanyi Okowa  as his running mate . We  shall  look too at the emergence of Jagaban Bola Ahmed  Tinubu as the ruling party’s presidential flagbearer and   the argument  on his choice of a running mate on the basis of religion and geography and  the politics of that,  given the nature of  our zoning political culture and mentality .  We   shall  also  look at the personalities of the these leaders and their track record in our Nigerian  federation .

    Both  the Jagaban and Atiku  are  well tested hands and veterans  of Nigeria’s  politics .They  are  both friends who  respect  each  other very  much . When Atiku was elected as presidential  candidate , Tinubu who  was yet  to be elected then , welcomed Atiku  as a worthy  opponent . In   the campaign for  his candidacy  Atiku  was rumoured to  have threatened his party’s  hierarchy  and leadership that if  he was not elected  he would submit  his powerful  party apparatus to the use of the Jagaban and the PDP would  lose the 2023 presidential election . That  clearly worked  for the PDP eventual  flag bearer   but now the die  is cast as both leaders throw their  hats  in the ring for an exciting presidential  battle of the two  leading titans of Nigeria’s moneybags politics .  Let  me admit that nobody  knows  Nigeria’s problems better  than these  two  contestants and I will  not waste  my time narrating them  to them . The  novelty  is that both have never been president . They  have gone through the expensive leadership rung of senator and   governor  . Atiku  was Vice President and has been  losing his party’s   presidential nomination serially till now .Tinubu was a most  successful Lagos  state  governor and would have been Vice President but for the menace of the Muslim Muslim  ticket which  had him  nominating a surrogate as Vice  President before shouting from the roof top bravely and winning the presidential  ticket .Mostly   with the righteous indignation of many Nigerians who believed  he did  not deserve the raw  deal  his party and its chairman  were  about to unleash on him on the eve  of his winning the partys’ presidential nomination .

    Zoning  and religion ,  aside  I think we are about to witness  a campaign of two  leaders who  will  want to really  transform the nation which they  know like  the back of their  hands  . The  remarkable  thing is that although Atiku  will  blame the APC for the failure of security in the nation I  do not think he will  personally blame his opponent  for  that as he knows the nature of Nigeria’s party politics and  leadership . Having been Vice President of a president    who  was hostile to him and called him  names  I expect Atiku to treat his opponent with  great  respect as  the stature ,and exposure of both leaders is such  that they    have the connections  nationally  to move the nation forward  positively . Tinubu  however is the man to beat given his exposure in managing the  government of  Lagos  state  for two terms successfully  and grooming his successors  ever since . Lagos  is the commercial capital of Nigeria and even though oil  is the main stay of Nigeria’s  economy , Lagos is the nation’s   economic    heart  throb  . For   now  no one  in Nigeria   knows   better  how  to keep this   commercial   heart  beating   rhythmically  and working well   for the benefit of  all   Nigerians  trooping in their millions daily to earn a living in Lagos    than the APC presidential  candidate , the Jagaban of Borgu  ,  now about to become the Jagaban  of Nigeria . This  is no flattery  but a clear matter of political experience ,   proven   capacity , tenacity of purpose and focused ambition. One  should reap where he has sown and     that is what  the Jagaban   rightly    deserves .His  party     and   most   Nigerians nationwide know the  ability and pedigree of the man  they  have chosen  to  fly  the flag  of the APC in the 2023 presidential  elections as Nigerians prepare for the promised transformation of their nation under a time tested leader as their president in 2023 .

    Going  back to the Boris  Johnson  government’s underhand  diplomacy of transferring  migrants risking their lives on the  Mediterranean and the high seas  to live in Britain ,  to   Rwanda instead ,  one should  warn the UK  PM  that  but for colonialism  these migrants would know nothing about  the existence of Britain . British  colonialism uprooted many  cultures in their colonies and gave them a new quasi British  way of life . That  was what gave birth to Multiculturalism  extolled so much as nice by Tony Blair when he was in power . But  integration of  migrants  from   the  famous   British  Common wealth   has failed  woefully . In addition the spread  of the benefits of the welfare state that Britain floated  so  lavishly after the second world war  is becoming   thinner   if not unaffordable  for a multicultural  Britain . That  has made the Boris Johnson government to decide that desperate  diseases  need desperate  cure  hence the Rwandan  solution to Britain’s boat  migrants  crisis . Britain  has conveniently  forgotten that under International  law ,  it is expected to give sanctuary  to those fleeing wars and many forms of political  exploitation or discrimination . On  this score Britain has  behaved   like a  rogue  state  in transferring migrants  to  Rwanda, even  though one must admit  that the prospect of Rwanda as destination for desperate migrants will  be  a  sure  disincentive  for such  migrants seeking a better life in the land of their  former Colonial  masters  . Definitely with  this Rwanda masterstroke Britain  has killed  two  birds with  one stroke  albeit  at the price of violating  international  law   quite deliberately and brazenly too .

     

  • Leaders, strategies and values

    Leaders, strategies and values

    It is difficult  to be   happy    and sad at the same time . Yet   that is the situation  I  am in ,  as I  write this column for today . I dedicate  it to the victims of the church slaughter in Owo  town last Sunday in which 40  people were killed and 61  injured . It  is a grim  test of faith for  Christians who worship in Churches globally  and very dangerously   now in Nigeria . But  God  knows best  and May the souls of  these  Nigerian Christian Martyrs    from   Owo ,  rest  in Perfect Peace Amen .

    Two  events on political  participation and competition  catch  my attention today  in both Nigeria and the UK . The first  is the  election  of the Jagaban  Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the flag  bearer  of the ruling APC in the forthcoming 2023   presidential elections   at the party’s primaries in Abuja . The  second is the winning  of the Vote of Confidence  of the Conservative Party by  the British PM Boris Johnson  . The  Jagaban’s  victory in the primaries gladdens my heart  in that it defeated the concept of consensus which  I have opposed vociferously  as dictatorial and anti  democracy  in my   recent  columns  Indeed I went on to write that if there  was to be consensus as a last ditch effort then  the nominee must be the Jagaban  himself  , a posture the candidate now victor later adopted to save his nomination  ,  and    pave the way  for  his  eventual election at   the just   concluded   APC   presidential  primaries  in Abuja .

    In  the case of the winning of the vote of confidence by the British PM ,  I  attest to  some admiration  , albeit    a very grudging one    at   that ,    for the survival instinct  of the British PM ,  in  that  he has shown again  that  he is  the real cat with nine lives in British  politics  as we know it today .  The  Jagaban  and Boris  ,  which   is how I will  address  them   both  henceforth  in this column ,  have much in common as political pragmatists , proactive  leaders ,  consummate  politicians    and seasoned   strategists   . Indeed  ,  I see them  as birds  of the same feather in the different  contexts and political  systems  they  operate  in , and the genius and  strategies  they  have evolved , applied and deployed   quite  brilliantly  in ensuring they have their  ways and achieve their  goals as the two  political  competition they  have won  against all  odds   vey recently  have shown .  The  leadership styles of both leaders , the moral issues and blockades they  faced in consummating their  recent electoral and political  victories in spite  of the conspiracies they faced amongst  friends and foes alike ,  form the kernel of our analysis  today .

    Let  me  start by highlighting the values  and challenges these  two  leaders faced on the way to their victories in both  Abuja and London .  Enroute  his eventual election as APC flag bearer   the  Jagaban  faced conspiracies , betrayals   and outright  treachery  but  found   fairness, justice and fair play from unexpected quarters  ,  albeit  at the last  minute .  Indeed   he discovered almost too late  that he had to blow his own trumpet when no one was ready  to listen  to him  or blow  it for him and that paid   handsomely   in     spite  of the grumblings  in high places deep  inside his party .  On the other  hand , Boris was on the way  to the guillotine  literally  within his own  party  but his cabinet  members  showed rare loyalty  , respect and discipline   to save  his leadership  to show that  the cabinet  system  is still  the guiding spirit  of British  Parliamentary  democracy . Let  me proceed to elucidate  on the nitty     gritty of these assertions   and  observations .

    Forty  eight  hours before the   presidential  primaries voting  in Abuja ,  the Jagaban and the entire APC leadership  faced a coup  mounted by no  other person than the party’s Chairman  who announced that consensus  has been  used to  pick the party’s candidate , the President of the senate  who  is from the North .  Yet   earlier  , the Northern governors  had  honorably  and in the interest of fair play and justice declared that the south should pick  the presidential  candidate because  the north had been in power for the last eight years .  The  Northern governors mounted their own counter coup and went to the president and pleaded the cause of the south for the presidency and the consensus coup was killed   when the president himself  declared that he had not picked a consensus candidate and voting must  take place . That  was the opportunity  the Jagaban  needed to show  his  hold nationwide on the party and the results  showed clearly  as the Yorubas say  in two proverbs  , first  that the head  of the elephant  is not a load  for a child  and two , that the stealth  of the  leopard should not be mistaken for cowardice .

    Five     lessons that are important  for political  leadership  in Nigeria  emerged from the APC presidential  primaries. The  first  is that free and fair  elections are possible in Nigeria at least at national  party level . The  second  is that there  are honorable  politicians and leaders  in Nigeria as the Northern  governors  showed  in asking the party   to pick  its  candidate  from  the south  to show that he who comes to equity must come with  clean  hands . These  governors  have   made   history  and they  have my eternal admiration . The  third  is that  powerful  leaders who spread fake news can be check mated and stopped in their tracks   positively  in the  party  like the  governors stopped the party  chairman from spreading misinformation  about a consensus candidate when there was none .  This APC  Chairman  must  be made to face his disciplinary nemesis sooner than later in the party as he should not be allowed to get  away  with  murder on the false   consensus  flag  he flew at the party’s presidential  primaries .  Fourthly  Nigerian leaders  must  be bold to sell  their    capacity  to lead and  ability  to  deliver on their claims when they  have the record and recognition  for their achievements and should  not allow  party hierarchy  to  kill their  ambition , as it tried with  the Jagaban. Obviously the  primaries  table turned in favour of the Jagaban the moment  he   decided  to recount publicly  his role in making the present president successful  in 2015  presidential elections   ,  after  the incumbent president had lost three  elections serially before . Fifthly  ,  especially   in politics ,  prodigal  sons are very  welcome back home when they  see  light  even at the last  minute and acknowledge the leadership  of the leader that groomed   them  as some candidates  did  during the debate and stepped down for   the  Jagaban at the last APC presidential primaries .  As  some philosophers  have noted forgiveness is the  best  form of  vengeance and  since  only   the Jagaban   knows  where the shoe pinches , we ask  him to temper    justice with  mercy   .

    In  Boris’  survival  of the No  Confidence vote of his party  it  is clear  that  loyalty played a major part and that is a plus  for British  democracy  as  it  is obvious that his cabinet  colleagues  suppressed  their  ambition  to  make Boris live to see another  day . The  dictum  in British Parliamentary democracy is that the PM is’   primus  inter pares ‘  which  means first  amongst  equals   and  any of the cabinet members could  have qualified to succeed  Boris  but they kept their cool and put their ambition under lock . Which  was the opposite of what those close to the Jagaban  did  on the eve of the APC presidential  primaries . Indeed most UK cabinet  members agreed that Boris’  offence  no matter what should not deter him from enjoying the benefits of the huge mandate he won at the last  general  election , since it is the electorate that  chooses the leader as well   as the party members calling for the head of the PM on  a  platter  of  gold  .Even then  ,    the vote  of confidence has shown such  party members are in the minority . Democracy after all is embedded   in the saying  that   –  ‘the minority    can     have its  say   , but the majority  must  have  its way .

  • Ideologies, culture and succession

    Ideologies, culture and succession

    After  watching the Platinum   Jubilee  Celebrations  marking  the 70th anniversary of the British monarch  Queen Elizabeth 11  on the throne  ,   I began  to smell a rat  on the legacy of democracy as an ideology that  the British  bequeathed  Nigeria and many former colonial members of the British Commonwealth of nations ,  of    which Nigeria  is a member . I found  the Platinum Celebrations majestic in every  sense and  I confess to some colonial  mentality   because   although I am a proud Nigerian I confess to   a      dotty   admiration    of British    royalty   which  seems to    lead   me    somewhat    to see the Queen    in such  admirable light that  I  think  she can do no wrong  . Which  is a fallacy  since she is a human  being  after  all ,  in spite  of the finesse  and grandeur  with  which    she  has  ruled  for  the last 70 years  . After  watching  the jets of the British  Air Force  do  a formation  of   the figure  70 ,    as well as  a smoke color  rendering of  the Black Jack  , the British  flag   in the skies  and  seeing the British   PM taking  his seat  like anyone else at one of the ceremonies marking  the Jubilee ,  I  started   to wonder  why a truly  democratic  nation like Britain  can give  such  adulation to an unelected monarchy  and still claim to be a democracy in every  sense  of the word.

    Britain  of course is a parliamentary   democracy and that was the ideology  handed over to Nigeria at  Independence in 1960   and  Nigeria later  became a republic and appointed  a president to replace the Queen  as Head OF State   . Later with  the military intervention in Nigeria’s politics ,  Nigeria became  a presidential system  of  government with its system of checks  and balances   modeled on the American   presidential  system  of government  .

    Today  , however, I am looking  at  succession  issues in Nigeria and Britain and the role  of elections and  political  succession  in both  nations  .   The   objective   here  is to see how the British left  us a democracy that makes elections the ritual for changing governments periodically  but   still maintain their monarchy while our  political  culture is to rig  elections to retain  power  by all means . What  is alarming in our succession evolution is the  sudden  emergence   of a consensus  culture  clearly  manifested in the ruling APC  anointing  its  chairman recently  at the behest  of the leader  of the party ,  who is the nation’s  president   . And    the   malignant  rumour  that  this is to be repeated  for the  presidential  primaries of    the  party  in which  25  candidates have paid  the 100m naira price  tag  to qualify  to contest for office of the president at the primaries  scheduled for this month .

    It  is my contention   here  that  the British  monarchy  confers  stability on British  democracy  because governments come and go at general elections in  the UK  but  the monarchy  remains on the throne . While   Parliament is supreme in making laws and elected PMs  write  government policies which  are  read  from the throne by the Queen , stability and continuity of governance is assured by the well  known saying  that ‘ with the Queen in Buckingham Palace , every  Briton sleeps well  in his  bed ‘. The saying was again  reinforced  by the massive turn out for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee  this last week .

    I   therefore  wonder  aloud ,  why the British destroyed  the Nigerian   traditional   institutions     like  Obas in Yorubaland  and Emirs in the North while    securing theirs and making it the  anchor  of their  Parliamentary  democracy  . In fact  the British  were favorable to the Emirs with Indirect Rule which  they  denied the Obas till  much   later. Overall  however,  the view and legacy of the British  was that our traditional  monarchy was incompatible with  democracy .  Which  happens to be hypocritical  given  that British  democracy  thrives on the British  monarchy .

    It  was in  a bid   to   create  a stable polity  that   the   Nigerian   military  in government  evolved a presidential  system  of government  in the hope that the US  model  ,in which   the  winner    takes  all  will  give the executive  president   more  powers  than a PM in a Parliamentary  democracy  which   we  practiced before . What  has happened  instead  in this regard is that former military officers changed their uniforms to flowing agbadas and now dominate the Nigerian political  environment  and have become elected presidents  , senators  and key  chairmen of   powerful house  and senate  committees . The   real    danger  now  to Nigeria’s  elective democracy with  its rampant  rigging culture   is the emergence of consensus  politics  at   party   level  created  by the present president . This is because consensus  is the opposite of political competition and party  politics .

    Unlike  in Britain where the monarchy  tethers parliamentary  democracy ,  consensus in party and national  politics   in Nigeria will  breed a dictatorship  where incumbents appoint their successors and have them elected to succeed them or their cronies and surrogates in government . This makes a mockery of participatory  and competitive  democracy  .  It  reinforces my initial  suspicion  that  the British  gave  us a raw  deal at independence  in undermining  our traditional  and customary   institutions  of  governance    in   the  emergence     of democracy   .Now   we   are  about   to  compound  our  problems   by shooting our selves  in the  leg in     creating a culture of consensus  succession.   Instead of striving  to create smooth  political  transition and  succession   through clean and fair elections  which have been the elusive trait  of our wobbling   , money ridden and  highly oligarchic  democracy  .

    Let  me end on the note that the concensus option as a substitute for elective democracy  is a product  of excessive  monetisation  of  our  political  culture . Participants  in the political  system are used to a  culture of buying and selling  votes with  big   money and  expensive  functional  gifts  needed  for every  day  living  that only the rich and mighty can afford  and   which   the poor  and needy   participants   crave   for  to  sell  their   votes  and conscience   . It  is an endless orgy of continuous demand and supply   and consensus  politics will  not stop it or minimize . Instead  it will make political participation and leadership available or  even  affordable to the highest  bidder .

    Whilst  the number of candidates for the presidency in the APC is  certainly  unwieldy at  25 ,   the high  number  of  candidates showed  that the rationale    for making the fee high at 100m naira    to  discourage  high  number of candidates ,  was a failure . Really  ,   ambition  , as in  Shakespeare’s   Julius Caesar ‘  should  be made   of  sterner  stuff ‘   than money  , no matter  how high . Yet  democracy  is government of the people  by the people  and  for  the people  . How  the way we practice  this in Nigeria fits  that definition  beats  my imagination  . Surely  there is need for an urgent rethink on the way we  practice or worship our  democracy where only  the rich are the beneficiaries so  glaringly  and with  such impunity .

  • Elections, realignment and disenchantment

    Elections, realignment and disenchantment

    Let me start today  with  a confession –  on the nature of politics and elections in  most  nations of the world  , especially Nigeria  –   that I  not only find   the   political  party  primaries difficult  to understand   but   I  am   equally     baffled  with the high rate  at which  candidates spring up overnight wanting to be president .  I think  I have  myself to blame for both my ignorance and distress  on the primaries because  even though I am a card  carrying member of a political  party, I  have never attended a political party meeting in my life  not to talk of witnessing  any  primaries . Having said that however  I know  many Nigerians like me who are not apolitical  but are just  not interested in party politics or  the rigors and costs  of political  participation in  Nigeria . This   is because   our  political system   has left    people  like   me and others     stranded  because the entrance fee   to party politics is not only unaffordable   and expensive but clearly  beyond  reach. Especially    when  the forms for presidential aspirants cost 100m naira and       registration  fees  are  so high for  all   politically available vacancies. They  are  reasonable at that price only    for professional politicians  who live on politics and have been at the game for so long that they  have no other vocation , hobby or  distractions of any type ,   because  politics  , outside religion ,  and yahoo  yahoo  ,  has  become the most lucrative  undertaking and   past  time  in our great nation

    Right  now the  primaries for  the presidential candidates are  in high  gears in the two  major parties , the APC and the PDP  as well as the many obscure  ones whose candidates know certainly that they have no chance in hell  of getting anywhere near  the presidency  but are still  in the race because they can afford  to pay  for the registration  forms any way . It is this race , the primaries ,  that draw our attention today  even  as we proceed  to look at elections elsewhere globally  .             Especially with the primaries for the November 2022  mid term elections in the US ,   and   the just  concluded presidential  elections in the Philippines  .Of  course  ,    we start   with  Nigeria ,    where  we really  know where the shoe  pinches   with  regard  to our expensive politics and equally fragile and offensive democracy  .

    I had  a discussion with a  former  Federal  Attorney General in his country  home some time during which  he told  me when  I asked of his immediate  future plan ,  as he was about to leave government and   an election was approaching , and he told  me that  I should  be patient  because  there  was going to be what  he labelled a realignment  of  political  forces before the election . He  never witnessed  the realignment     he saw or    the   election  because  he was assassinated shortly after and his killers are yet  to be found till  today  . Today  however a realignment if forces is in the offing the way  the ruling party is about  to elect its presidential  candidate  this weekend   on Sunday , tomorrow  . There is talk of   a possible  concensus candidate similar to how the Chairman  of the party  was recently  elected but the Chairman  himself has debunked that by saying the presidency is a different ball  game too big  for concensus . However  a  stark show of realignment   of  forces  that was unthinkable before  is   possible  emergence of former President Goodluck Jonathan  who was defeated in the 2015  presidential elections by the incumbent  president . Jonathan is not a member of the APC but is reportedly being  wooed by those close to the president . It has even been mooted that the deadline for submission  of forms will  not affect him even though he has not collected the form yet and the deadline is gone for submission  of forms . Until  now , the former president was   his successor’s  able  envoy   to places where there have een coups recently like Mali and  Guinea  ,   sent to persuade successful coup plotters in those nations to  return  to their barracks  or set dates for return to civilian  rule , a task  in which  he failed   woefully  because the  soldiers never called off  their coups in those nations .  Now it seems the president is about to reward  his predecessor with the presidency for failed assignments in calling off coups on behalf  of ECOWAS .That  will  be a daunting  task even  for  our strong president who wields great power in his party given  the way the chairman was evolved by concensus last  time around . Given that 26  aspirants are in the primaries  there certainly will  be a lot of bad blood if the president handpicks a candidate and foist  him on the party . Such  resentment will lead to a new round of alignment of forces   after  the primaries . It  is obvious who is  the forerunner is  in this race   and that is the candidate who stuck his neck out   from the Lagoon in Lagos to proclaim that the present president was electable and the party rallied round that campaign call and the president got his two terms . I   really  can  not see how the president can hand  pick any other person than the Jagaban , Bola Ahmed  Tinubu . Otherwise  the race should take its course and the primaries should elect the APC presidential  candidate  from the 26  aspirants  . To  do otherwise is to set  afoot  an unexpected chain of events the end of which  no man can   foresee  .  It   makes  one to   recall the prediction    of  the great Tony Enahoro   sometime   ago  on the start of events that culminated ominously in the  AG    crisis   of 1962  and  the  Nigerian civil war subsequently .

    In  the US ,  the  party  primaries in the Republican party  has  pitched  former President  Donald Trump against fellow  Republicans like his  Vice  President Mike  Pence ,which  is a real  realignment of forces now in the November 2022  mid term elections,  and perhaps later in the 2024 US presidential  elections . The reason is simple . Trump asked his Vice President not to validate the 2020 election results won by Joe Biden at the last stage of the counting of the  states   electoral  ballots as required by law . Pence  refused and what has been called the insurrection of Jan 6 2021 ensued .  Now  Trump     supported  the opponents  of both  the incumbent Governor   Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger  in the Republican primaries but  the two  Republicans defeated Trump’s surrogates . That  is a  realignment that did not favor  Trump’s claim that he won Georgia in the 2020 presidential elections, a claim that the two  victorious Georgia Republicans strongly  denied.

    In  the May  9  2022    presidential   elections in the Philippines   a dynastic  political pairing of Ferdinand Marcos Junior  , the only son of his father of the same name who was deposed in 1986 and the Daughter of incumbent President Duterte  , Sarah  won the presidential  elections . That  really was a vintage concoction of a realignment  of  forces  and a remarkable  one at that ,   given the fact that the father of the new Vice President was so anti corruption  while in office and the father of the new President was  unrepentantly  corrupt  and  was indeed a kleptocrat ,   before being sent out of office in 1986 .  It   remains to be seen  why  the  Filipinos  chose  this combination to vote in ,  against  all  odds ,  but  the fact cannot be denied  that  a strange  realignment has emerged   most   unexpectedly   in that nation .

  • Corruption , policing and blackmail

    Corruption , policing and blackmail

    The  recent suspension of the Accountant General of the Federation by the Minister of Finance and the revelation by the EFCC that  he  is being  investigated for an  80bn naira fraud involving the acquisition of 17  houses locally  and overseas ,  must  have come as a shock  not only to Nigerians  but also  our president who was elected and  reelected on a clean slate and  reputation for being an anti corruption  champion and man of integrity .  Whilst Nigerians  know  that wonders will  never end in  terms  of corruption in a nation in which  the bidders for the highest office in the land pay 100m naira  easily   for presidential  forms in a  nation where  most  people go to work and move about on motorcycles called Okadas  ,   it  may be difficult  for  an outsider not living in Nigeria  to hear  that  Nigerians applauded the governor of Lagos state  which  houses  the commercial capital of Nigeria  when he banned okada  motor cycles in six  local  governments in the state from June 1 . It  becomes even more  interesting   when  leaders of the Hausa community in the state  begged  the governor to review  the ban  so  that the  okada  riders   can vote for him in the coming elections  because  ,  according to their   leaders , they  are many  .

    Notably ,   all  these  issues revolve  around   how  fraud and misdemeanor  are monitored ,  detected ,   investigated and prosecuted and the role of the police and security forces  cannot be ruled out or under   estimated  You  can imagine my shock  then   when a police officer told me to my   face in a discussion recently  that even if he is armed and  he  sees a robbery being perpetrated in front  of him  he will side step  the crime and go on his way . Today  we  look  at all these  issues in their  context and in terms  of our political culture and make some comparative   analysis  with  some other nations   and culture  as  appropriate .  .

    We   note  at the onset  that the problem of corruption is an endemic one in Nigeria . Yet  this time  one must commend the police and EFCC for  doing a good  job in catching  a big fish  like the Accountant General  who is a big  disgrace to  the government  of the day . This  is because the position of AG is like that of Caesar’s  wife  who  must be seen to be above reproach .Although   I frown at media trial  because an accused is presumed innocent until found guilty ,  the level  of fraud revealed  so far  beggars  description and one wonders at the sanity of a high   government  official  getting involved in such  sordid  dealing s and still having the nerve to come to work . That explains why   the Minister of Finance in the letter suspending him asked him  NOT to come to work again .  It  is  such a shame that  the  man expected to police our accounting system  has gone on to subvert  the system to line his pocket and   those  of his cronies on such a massive scale . I wonder  what  type of punishment  would be a deterrent  to those hoping to copy  him to  get away  with murder  in looting our economy  Yet ,  one hopes the government  pursues his prosecution diligently such  that his type never gets to hold a position of responsibility  or  trust  in  any arm  of government in this nation .

    Again,   one must commend the Lagos state governor for aiming to  ban the okadas in the local  governments highlighted and he should  not succumb  to the    black mail  of the so called Hausa leaders that the okada riders  will  vote for him . Indeed the Okada people even though they  speak hausa are not all  Nigerians and truly  they are many and are always angry and moving against  traffic . The  challenge for the state is the doubt in people’s  mind  that the state police and security apparatus  can  contain the menace of the okada riders,  if they  choose  to disobey the ban .  This  is where the state can show  that it  knows the meaning  of government and governance because for  too long it has condoned the insolence  ,  impunity  and  violence of the okadas against the government  and people  of Lagos state  ,  who voted the governor in to protect their  lives and   property .  I  remind  the Lagos State Government that a government  is any government  that   can  sustain  and control  the use  of force to  maintain and ensure  its rule and control over a given  territorial  area. Which  in this  case  is Lagos  state,  which  unfortunately  the Okadas  have invaded  so  cheekily and with  such arrogance similar to the way Russia’s  Putin  invaded Ukraine  . Now  our Governor Jide Sanwoolu  must show  he is  Zelensky  enough  to  get  the Okadas  out of our hairs and  show  that  the LASG  is  strong enough  to get  the Okadas  under  control to  let  them know  that the threat  of not  voting for the governor is a meaningless and empty threat  . It   is the duty of government  to  have its way especially  with  matters  of security  and LASG should  not be an exception .

    With  regard  to the issue of my friend the police officer who showed  nonchalance on policing I  can  only show empathy in disagreeing with him , which  I did  , and strongly too .  Such  attitude can be traced to poor police salary  conditions , welfare and perquisites of office which government itself  knows is quite  poor ,   but  has not  done anything to improve the conditions of service  for our policemen . It  is an issue  that requires urgent  attention or else the response of my friend will  become a general  attitude  to crime  and the security of society will be compromised . This  attitude can also  be traced to the  recent  Stop SARS anti police protests which  led to  the  killing of innocent policemen and the burning  of police stations  as well as  the report  of a subsequent government inquiry  that  favoured protesters at the expense of policemen  ,  doing their  lawful  duty .  Such anti  police bias in high places   can  only diminish  the morale , commitment  and professionalism of  the police and when that happens  insecurity and crime will proliferate in society and public safety and order will be compromised .

    This  is similar to  the ‘Defund  the Police Movement’  tied to the Black Lives Matter   issue  arising from the killing of black men  by the police in the US . The  Democratic Party led by US President Joe Biden campaigned  and won the 2020 presidential election on this platform  and states won by the Democrats  started defunding  the police and making bails easier or removed for criminals  .Subsequently  the crime rates soared in Democratic   cities and security  was compromised and there is a rethink   now  on  how to implement a campaign  promise  without  compromising law and order in society at large .

    It  is a pity that policing and security in the US and Nigeria have the same objectives but different political    approach    and enabling    environment  for  their  operations . In  the US policemen are well paid but they  often suspect and kill  men of  color, especially blacks than other races ,  especially whites . In Nigeria policemen are  poorly paid and their welfare ignored by their employers yet they  are relied on to  control  protests and  maintain law  and other . In  both  cases policemen are expected to do their duty . That  is the purpose of their existence and their use in the society . Two wrongs do not make a right  and the security  of society is the first  duty of policemen  globally . That  is the truth and  their  professional  challenge .

     

  • Leadership, legacy and recycling

    Leadership, legacy and recycling

    It  is apparent from the several  ways and means that world leaders , their relatives   and    cronies  cling to power  that the  uses  and perquisites of power are  so sweet and alluring that  such leaders want them ,   possibly   for eternity . It  is always  easy  to accuse politicians  of clinging to power tenaciously  and rigging elections or wanting to come back after democratic  tenures expire   through   surrogates  or  stand  ins ,   but really   this  is not a monopoly  of politicians alone . If  you watch the speech  from the throne in the UK  parliament   given  by  an    over 70   year old   heir  apparent to the English throne  standing in for  his mother  the   Queen who  is over 90 , then you  appreciate  the   monarchy too  is not  averse  or immune  from  the sweet  uses  , pomp  and pageantry  of power . Prince  Charles  looked worn out and tired so palpably  that   you can  see that  he   is     frustrated   in looking forward  to be King . While the aged mother is not thinking of abdicating because  she too  cannot  contemplate  life without power and the pageantry of  royalty . So  if  hereditary    inheritance   can  run into a bottle neck  on succession on account of  long  life ,   then you  can understand   how desperate  politicians who  have limited   democratic  tenure     would  love  to  extend  their stay  in power  by any means both legitimate  or not .

    It  is  with this in mind  that we look  at the way  Nigerian  politicians and leaders try  to perpetuate their stay  in power and move from  governorship to   senate  and   most  recently   to the presidency  . Others  have     moved  from governorship   to  ministerial   appointments  and then to presidency  . The  latest  path  and most bizarre  is that  of a CBN governor  who has  obtained forms to contest  the presidential elections  while  still  in charge  as   governor  of the coffers  of the Nigerian government . Let  me state  clearly  that  I am  not blaming  any  leader  or politician  for clinging to office  but  it must be done  legitimately and  constitutionally . The ball  is always in the court of the electorate to choose who  ever they  want to   lead  in periodic  elections . If  the electorate choose perennially  those who  loot their patrimony  and  have stupendous  unexplained  wealth  then  it  is  their funeral . This  is because  it is apparent  and clear that those  who  have bought  forms for  contesting as president of Nigeria  have  a lot of explaining   to do   in their  affordability of those  presidential  forms  and   forms   for  other elective offices .

    Again , let  me state that there is nothing wrong  if the electorate decides  to  have a kakistocracy   which    is government  by the worst    citizens   typified  recently    by   a two   term  president    of a  Latin   American   nation    arrested  and taken  in  handcuff     for  trial   for   drug  trafficking in  the  US  . That surely  was the legacy  of this crooked  president and he paid for it  dearly  . You  can compare this with the democratic victory  of  the son  of corrupt Filipino  leader Ferdinand  Marcos  who was booted out by the Filipino electorate some time  ago . His  victorious  son asked the electorate  not to look at  his dynasty but his record and the electorate believed him  and elected him  in spite of the dirty politics of his parents a long time ago . The  parents left a dubious political  legacy  but the electorate did not take   vengeance    on  the   son   because   of the   good  performance   of the son which   made him electable  . That   is    the beauty   of democracy  .

    It  is this separation  of the wool  from  the chaff  of     political  leadership   globally   that   I will  dilate  on  today  . I  will use  examples  from  France , the US , the UK  and Nigeria to illustrate political  mechanisms that   reflect  change and  reward  or  punish political  performance as and when  due  ,   mostly    at election times.

    French  President Emmanuel  Macron was reelected to a second term recently but  in his first term  he came in as a politically  unknown presidential candidate simply because the electorate was fed up with established political parties in France then .That  was a political somersault  by the electorate that wanted change and got it in a  free and fair election .  In  the US ,   the mid term elections   are usually the barometer to  measure the performance of the party in power and the president . Invariably they are judged harshly and the opposition  comes in ,  in large numbers in Congress  to create legislative stalemate or nightmare  for a  president half way  through  his   term of office  . Joe  Biden the US president is already  feeling  the   heat   as  consumer  and petrol prices  rocket  sky  high  the  same time that he wants to close down the fossil  industry   because  of his campaign  promise on climate  change and the goal  of minimizing global  warming and making the world  safe  for posterity .   Either  way , the  Democrats  are   about to be punished  by the US electorate in this November mid term elections adding to their indignation and revulsion  on the   looming   abolition of abortion by a US Supreme Court dominated  in  a 6/ 3 majority  by  Trump and Republican oriented judges  .

    In  the UK  the Tories   have received  their punishment for  the  lockdown    misdemeanors of the UK PM Boris  Johnson .  The  party lost  massively in the last  local  government  elections which  act the same way as the US mid term elections  after general  elections for the party in government . It  was a loss that even Tories’ counselors   blamed  on the mendacity of the PM their  leader on the party gate scandal on which the PM   refused  to resign  claiming   he  had  a respectable  majority  to carry out important tasks at the last elections and  he would not be distracted by frivolities  and parties at lockdowns  for which he had been fined by the police . Again  British   democracy shows it   can  censure   its leaders at   elections  but on some occasions  it can not remove a popular leader who  knows how to manipulate  political  rascality  like Boris  Johnson .

    Lastly  ,  we end  with the Nigerian CBN governor claiming  a right  to be a presidential  candidate while in office . It  is a  clear  abuse    and misuse  of office and he  should either be fired by the leader whose office he   aspires to or be asked to resign  immediately  .He probably  thought he  had a precedent  in his predecessor  who bagged a very  important traditional  title in  Kano  and took a famous picture on the CBN premises for the world to see .  His  predecessor went on to become   Emir  of Kano  from  where  he started criticizing government   ceaselessly   till  he was deposed  . There could be a lingering seed of the lust  for the presidency in the CBN that is plaguing CBN governors . Whatever it is ,  it is unconstitutional  and no CBN governor in harness ,  can contest for the presidency of Nigeria .   It  is inordinate   ambition  and  that is the   plain   truth .