The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Power, decorum and focus

    The  presentation  of  Nigeria’s 2019  budget by the president  at  the National  Assembly this  week  lacked all  the decorum expected of  such an important duty of the two political institutions  of the presidency and the National  Assembly  involved in our presidential  system  based on the separation of powers. Really    have no doubt  in my mind  that the fault lies with the leadership of the NASS  especially  as the Speaker of the House of  Representatives  and the President of the Senate were not able to present the address at  the joint session  as required  by the protocol and decorum of budget  presentation in Nigeria since the return  to democratic  rule in Nigeria in 1999. Even  the normally taciturn president chided in the midst  of the cacophony  that all  present should  be above   such    a disturbing spectacle  because  the world was   watching.  That  really  is quite true  and I want  to add  that the world has seen  Nigerian  legislators  at large  and at work   and   the world  at  large is disgusted  and nauseated.

    All   the same it   is impossible to treat the misdemeanor of  our legislators in isolation in a global  village that we are in  nowadays. This is because  we  saw  in other  parts  of the world  particularly  two  places  known  for the recommended practice  and ethos of liberal  democracy   that  violent language and verbiage has become the norm  rather  than  the exception.  In  the British  Parliament,  reputedly the  Mother of All   Parliaments,  the leader  of the Opposition  was alleged to have called the PM Theresa  May  a stupid  woman during debate  on Brexit  and a vote of no confidence in the PM, and the leader of Opposition, Jeremy  Corbin   was asked  to apologise  and he refused. In  the case  of the US it  has  become common place to   call  the American President a liar and an  ignoramus  on all  issues regardless  of his authority    as   president.  Indeed     from all indications some media  houses  are  simply  waiting   for  the  conclusion of the  Muller  Inquiry  on  alleged  Russian  hacking of  US 2016 presidential   elections,  and the resumption  in January   of the  House  of Representatives, where  the  Democrats   have  a comfortable majority  from the last November Mid term elections,  before  calling for the impeachment of the American president.  Indeed  one can say  flatly  that  there is no love lost between  a section of the US press  that  President Trump  calls daily Fake  News and the office of the US President and White  House  occupied  by the US president.

    Yet  Nigeria’s  democracy  is  a hybrid  product of the two  democratic   political  systems of  Britain  and   the  UK,  both  of which  nations  are  experiencing such  democratic  stress, difficulties  and challenges  that it is no wonder  that  nowadays   they  doubt  the  results  of their elections and   referendum,  which  was  an  unthinkable  if not impossible development in the recent past. Of  course  it is such  fallouts from  the workings   or is it   failings, of democracy   in these  two nations  that  have  reverberated in the disrespectful audience  given  the Nigeria President  when  he came to present the 2019  budget in the NationaL  Assembly  last  week.   Let us now  look  at  the aborted budget presentation of the Nigerian  president  in the sedate  setting of the National  Assembly which  legislators  turned  into a   vociferous  and  truculent  market  place of political slogans, jeers  and boos of the Nigerian  president such  that  he had to leave the presentation in a hurry. We  shall  then round up with  the reluctance of the Leader of the Labor Party  to apologise  for   allegedly  calling the British  PM a  stupid  woman.

    As I  said  earlier here,  I  hold  the leadership of the National Assembly  responsible  for the lack of respect shown  the office of our  president when  he came to present the nation’s  budget.  This was a constitutional  function based on the legislative oversight   function of the NASS to  approve the budget. To  make the presentation so rowdy  such that the leadership of the NASS could  not make its presentation as required by protocol and decorum is as  if the leadership of the legislature has willingly cut its nose to spite  its face . I praised  this present  NASS  leadership  sometime at the height of the heady    party  defections  in  NASS  that rocked the   Nigerian polity  some time ago. This was at a time when the Senate and the House  of Representatives passed delayed bills dutifully in spite of differences  and disagreements with the presidency. I  hailed that as a good sign that our separation of   powers as a presidential system  was working  even  at a time that that of the US was in hiccups over  a  Supreme Court  confirmation process. I  take back  that  commendation given the shoddy  reception given  the president when  he came for budget presentation this week.  There  was so  much  confusion and bad blood  on display  even at  the beginning when the senator giving the opening Christian prayer forgot  to remove his cap  till the end of his  prayer.  The  commotion that followed  certainly  showed that God turned  a blind  eye  to the prayer and that   is   not a good omen  for the  budget and its implementation. That  too is not good for  millions of Nigerians looking forward for better  dividends of democracy from  the Nigerian  2019  budget  because when  elephants  fight, it is the ground that suffers. Again due to poor leadership  our  democracy  is on   tenterhooks even  as we head  giddily   to the 2019  general  and presidential  elections.

    With  regard  to the calling of  the British  PM stupid it would seem  that some mischief  makers  are trying to make  a mountain out  of a mole  hill. Even  if  Corbin said  stupid  it was under his breath and in frustration because the PM had the better of  him while mocking him to  look  at  his back  and see his un impressed Labor Party  members. Indeed the Opposition leader looked as if he saw  a ghost  at  the joke.  And  the PM,   even  if she heard ‘stupid’  was  nonchalant. But   she  was   gleefully   happy     that her joke  on   withering  party    support   had  riled  her very  bitter opponent on  Brexit   and would  have  let  bygones be bygones.  But    then  Theresa  May     had   a score   to settle    with   Jeremy  Corbin  on    Brexit   harassment.  So,    as said  of   the   arrogant   character in that   famous  book  ‘Pride  and  Prejudice ‘, the PM certainly   ‘possessed  enough malice to make herself  merry with the embarrassment‘ of the Opposition leader on the  Brexit   No  Confidence  vote. Once  again long live the  Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Political parties, discipline and change 

    It  is interesting  indeed  that the President  of the Nigerian  senate  and some senators  have reportedly  attended in  the  US,  the  inauguration of  the   Strategy  for Africa session of the American  government. It  is a commendable  step in that it shows that  outside Aso  Rock  housing the  executive arm of government in Nigeria, the legislature too is very much interested  in Nigeria’s relations  with the leading democracy  in the world led  at this momentous  period  by  the leading catalyst  for disruptive  change in the world, US President  Donald Trump.

    Britain    also  weathered     the momentum  of change  this week as  the  British  PM  Theresa May  survived a No  Confidence  vote  of her party, the  Conservative  Party after  she had   wisely   postponed,  at the last  minute,  the  promised vote on Brexit  which she would predictably  have lost roundly  thereby   effectively  removing her  from office as PM . In   Germany  too  the wind    of  change  has literally  blown Chancellor Angela Merkel   aside  as she  has  been replaced  as her Party  leader by  another  lady who  is more  conservative  than  her  at least on the issue  of   same sex marriage  which  the new leader  has  outspokenly   said, on record, should be between a man  and a woman.

    Anyway,   it   is becoming apparent  in world  politics   today  that political  parties have  become  more dynamic in reacting to  socio political  changes  than ever  before. Since  Donald  Trump  emerged  as a political  neophyte  in the 2016  US presidential  elections in spite of   a   lack   of  support of  the  political  party leadership   of his  Republican  Party,   the  world  has not been  the same again . But  since Trump  got  to the White  House  his party  has  rallied  round  him.  Indeed  both           faith   and   party   loyalty      for him have  been    tested  especially  at the Senate  not  the least  by  the rancorous  Judge Kavernaugh Supreme  court  confirmation  hearings,    where the  Republican  Party  displayed  solid  party  solidarity and unflinching party  discipline  to  get  a narrow political  verdict  that reflected Republican  values  and virtues . It  is in that  light that  one can look at    the  visit  of  the Nigerian senators to the US to  watch  the launch of the US Africa  Strategy,  especially  with  the kind  of  bag  and baggage   the Nigerian  senators carried to the US in  terms  of party  discipline  and political  changes  taking place  in the Nigerian  political  establishment  and environment.

    Let  me confess  that  I have always thought  that  the problems of the Nigerian  political  system  stemmed   from our  abandonment of   parliamentary  system  of  government  handed down  to  us  by  Britain, our colonial  master  and the adoption of the  expensive  Presidential  system of  governance  under  a  military  government. The  debate  on Brexit in the British  Parliament that  I  watched  this  week  has certainly  changed all that. While  I was impressed  by  the quality of argument  for  a hard, soft,  bitter  or  no deal  Brexit   I was appalled     by  the  way  and  manner  that the  opposition MPs  and  the dissident Tories attacked  the deal  on the  floor of the House leading to an  MP  seizing  the mace on one occasion  before   it was  returned by another MP. Of  course  the Speaker  was helpless  and speechless momentarily,  before thanking the MP who  brought the mace back  and reprimanding the  naughty   MP.  Even  the venom in the Opposition leader  Jeremy  Corbyn’s speeches at  the debate showed  a fierce opposition to  the PM’s Brexit  Deal  that  was almost  a personal  attack.  British   Parliamentary   democracy   as    I was  taught  is    based  on the majority  having its way  while  the while   the minority    must    have  its say. The   Labor  Party  at  that  debate  was   not  only contented    with  having   its  say ,   expected   of the opposition   or minority, the  party   leader   wanted to bring down  the PM on the   Brexit   Parliamentary  debate     He  confirmed  his   anarchistic    disposition  by  calling the postponement of the vote  on Brexit   as  unacceptable  as  if  it  was illegal  when  it  was just  a survival  political   strategy   cleverly   executed  by the   embattled  PM.

    However the  only  silver  lining in the Brexit   debate  in  Parliament was  the persistence  and doggedness  of the British  PM in sticking to her guns  throughout  and not  losing composure  inspite of  taunts and provocative  jabs  at  her Brexit  deal  even  from   her  party  . On  that account  she  can  be tagged the’ Iron Lady ‘  like Margaret Thatcher  was once  admirably  described  and as  the German  Chancellor Angela  Merkel  was called  before  she allowed a floodgate of over a million migrants fleeing  war in the  Middle  East  into Germany in 2015. This  earned  Angela  Merkel  the eternal  enmity  of  both  conservatives in   her Christian  party  and opposition and coalition   partners  alike.  Even  though  Theresa  May  survived  the No  Confidence  vote  she  has offered not to present herself  for  any leadership role of her  party  in the next  election. But  she has shown  clearly   that  even  when party  discipline breaks  down,  a leader  must  be firm  and rally  the party  around  the decision  of  the electorate  thereby    guaranteeing  the integrity  of the electoral  process and democracy . Which  really  was   why  she has stood  so  firmly  and boldly against another    referendum  after  the British  people  have voted  to leave the EU  . In  the end  I think  history  and indeed  posterity  will  not  judge  her  very  harshly  as her opponents have  breezily   and   so  contemptuously  alleged.

    On  the visit  of the  Nigerian  Senate  President  to the US  it  is apparent  that the visit is a  window  dressing to  show  the US that  the Nigerian  senate  is up  and doing in terms of its legislative responsibilities  and  law  making. But  the senate  should be doing more  to promote a politics of principle  that  value  party  discipline  more  than habitual  defections which is the vogue nowadays.  That  is why  as at last  count it   was   difficult, according to observers  to know which  has  a majority  between  the two    leading parties in the  Nigerian  senate.  More awkwardly   the US embassy  in  Lagos    may  be asked  by  the State Department in Washington  to  confirm  the present parties  of  the visiting   senators  and  to  ensure  that  defections  did  not take place enroute  to  the Africa  Strategy  launch  of the Trump  Administration.  One   thing is very  clear   however   on the American  Africa Strategy. This   is that   US President   Donald  Trump    will  not interfere in African  affairs  like his predecessors.  This  is because     he said  at  the UN  General  Assembly  this year that if other  nations including  African  nations  put their nations first  like his America First  policy  then  there  would  be no  need to go cap in hand  begging for aid  from other  nations.  Which  is another way  of a developing nations to put their  houses in order in terms of  leadership,  morals and accountability. More  importantly   US Africa Strategy  under Trump  will  definitely  not  ask other  nations  especially  African nations like Nigeria who  have anti  gay  laws  to repeal  such laws if they want American economic aid,  like the  Obama  Administration  did,   ever   so  disrespectfully, during his  tenure.  Once  again  long live the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Change, leadership  and technology

    I write today  on a topic that I regard as an abomination   and I do  so  with great discomfort.  I  am discussing today the  issue  of the cloning of the Nigerian  president with a high  sense of duty and responsibility.  Really  I   wanted to steer  clear of a topic  that I    felt  had cast aspersion on both the office  and person  of our President.  When  however I read that  the President had responded  that he is himself  and that the  rumours  were ignorant rumours  I  felt  I  should come out of  the cocoon of affront   and disrespect  of our president that  I have,  on  my own, woven around the  topic.

    Let  me state  that I found  the president’s  response on his existence, measured,  matured  and extremely  tolerant.  He  even went as far as saying that he knew  some people hoped he was dead while he  was    sick  and were soliciting the Vice  President  for   his position when  he succeeds  the ailing then  and still living    President.  Surely  our president is not dead and is not  a clone but  a lot has  changed  in him and that is what  we shall  discuss  today in the context  of our topic   here.  We  shall    muse  at how technology  especially   the likes  of  cloning, artificial  intelligence, robotics  and the internet,  especially.  Facebook and WhatsApp    have changed  our  way   of  life  generally  as  well  as our  perception of our leaders in a very  comparative manner  in the global  village we live in ,  powered  by  Information Technology  in   this   digital world.

    Aside from  the high gullibility that  followed  the President’s cloning  ignorant  rumours ,  the fake news gained audience in places  that  you   would expect  to dismiss  such  distasteful  news   as  fit for  the trash  can. Intellectuals, high  professionals  and even  religious leaders  were conspiratorially  sending sms and messages on social media on something they will  not wish to happen to their kinsmen  and loved ones and they were enjoying  it. That  is the crux  of the matter here. Social  Media  in Nigeria seems  to have created  a class  of otherwise jobless and idle  Nigerians who    have   sunk lower in morals and low esteem of those they think  are socially  and politically  above  them.   They  peddle   unconfirmed    and uncorroborated    news    in   such   a breezy    and speculative manner.  Over time   given   their   obsession   with  social  media  which  has been  branded  medically   as the digital  disease    they  have concomitantly  developed  a  brutal   psyche    with no  compunction  at  all  on any  news, or issues, no  matter   how   slanderous and  libelous,  that  they  send  out to  their accomplices  and rumour  pedlars  on the internet.   Such  then  was the speed  at  which the  unfortunate  clone story  travelled   until  the steady  and gracious   response  of the President  which I  honestly  commend.  Yet  how  I wished  the President  had  said  he wished  them  heartily  what  they  so earnestly  wished  or  said  had happened to  him. Also   I   wished  this  cloning  rumour  had  happened  when  this same   President  was our  military  Head  of State, 30  years  before  he was elected President in  2015.  Very  safely, I leave  that to your  imagination.

    Let  us look  at  two  events  this week  where technology   brought  the role of world leaders to our  doorsteps  or  living room literally.   The  two  events   were  the Brexit  Debate  in the British  Parliament   and  the   state  burial  of the 41st US President George W H  Bush.  The  two  events symbolized  change  and  are  clear  lessons  on leadership style and the globally  pervasive  nature of  technology. They  were  watched  all over  the world   live and real  time as they say in TV Production.

    The  Brexit  Debate   to approve or disapprove the British  PM’s  draft  Brexit  Deal  which she said is the best  deal  possible  and with which  the EU agrees,  is  not likely  to be approved  by the British  Parliament  which  instead  voted to accuse  the cabinet of contempt  of  Parliament in not making available full  legal  advice  given  the cabinet  by the Attorney  General.  Indeed  Brexit  is all about change and fear and mistrust of   change.  The  Brexit  Referendum  sailed  through  by a slim  majority  then  the British  people  woke  up  from their slumber  and developed  cold  feet  on leaving the EU.  The British PM, Theresa May  thinks   it is a matter of state integrity  to stick by the result of the  referendum  but  she is digging her own political grave with  that  view  point, which  unfortunately   is her  political   survival  strategy.  The  odds  are that she will lose  the debates and the final  vote on December 11 and will  be swept  into  limbo  by the  Brexit   change  she has attempted to manage  so  brilliantly  but so  hopelessly.

    The  other  issue was  the state  funeral  of the US  President George Bush  at  which  his son the 43rd US President  of the same name gave a moving  and historical oration that  moved  the whole  world.  Of  significant   historical   importance  is the fact both  the 41st  and 43rd US presidents, a father  and his son  took the US  to   the  two  Gulf   Wars  of our   time   and  the consequences  of  the change  wrought  by their leadership  continue  to shape our world   for good   or bad till  today.

    However  the  event that I want to comment on was the service at  the National  Cathedral  at which former  living Presidents Jimi  Carter, Bill Clinton , and Barak  Obama  and their wives  were present   and  chatted with each  other.  The  entrance of present President Donald  Trump  in the church   was a moment of tension as he greeted the Obamas  but ignored  the Clintons . Which  showed   that   political  animosities  die  hard and cannot be hidden  even  at state  funerals.  The  reason  for Trump’s  cold shoulder   for the Clintons  was  the manner  of the emergence   of  Donald  Trump   himself  on American   political  arena   and  the defeat  of  Hillary Clinton in the 2016  presidential election.   Donald  Trump in  particular  has  been made different from the other  previous  US presidents because  of a technology  that has made him  more communicable  in a speedier and more spontaneous,    if    nastier  way,   than any  of his  predecessors . That  technology  is tweeter which  he has used so powerfully  to take on all  comers  who  have dared  to  criticize him or    especially  doubt  the legitimacy  of his 2016  presidential  election ,    now  being   bitterly  tainted  with allegations   of collusion with  Russia which  he resolutely  disputes.  His  election  too was a  charge   and  change against  ‘political  correctness’ and that  together  with twitter  have    invariably   turned  him into  the most  influential American    leader in the modern  world as we know  it  today.  Such  is the power  of both change  and technology  in the digital  village that has  brought  us all  on stage  to watch global  leaders  in  action   literally  on a 24  by 7 basis .  Once  again  long  live the  Federal  Republic  of Nigeria.

  • Elections, interference and migrations

    In  his new  book  on conceding power  in the 2015 Nigerian presidential  elections,  the gallant loser former President Goodluck Jonathan accused  the former US President Barak  Obama of interfering in the election with his body language in wanting the opposition to Jonathan  to win. That  too, obviously was one of the serious  and patriotic  reasons  that  made  the losing president to make the phone call  that sealed  his place in history  as  a peaceful  and loving Nigerian  leader, and the first  to lose power and transfer it peacefully  after losing  an election.

    Subsequent  events in both the US and  elsewhere  have shown  that Obama’s role in Nigeria was not an isolated event or  peculiar  to our shores. The successor to Obama, President Donald  Trump  is fighting for the  life of his presidency over allegations and investigations by the Mueller Probe that  Russia intervened in the US 2016  presidential  elections in a way  that helped  Trump  defeat his Democratic Party  opponent  Hillary  Clinton.  Of  course  Trump is furious and unrelenting in denying any  such claim shouting each time that the probe was a witch  hunt  and  there  was  indeed  no collusion. Trump  is  in  his third  year in office and he is stoutly denying collusion with  Russia  because his legitimacy is at stake.

    Equally,  the legitimacy  of the Buhari Administration  could be at stake  over  this unsubstantiated  claim of a loser getting wise after the event  and seeing  the  gloom  of defeat in a different light on the eve of another election in which he is trying frantically, like a sinking man grasping at a straw, to save the fortune of his party  the  PDP  in the coming 2019 presidential elections. The peaceful  transition  leader  should be brought back to earth  with statistics  and  media  reports  that  showed clearly that on the  eve of the 2015  elections,  massive  insecurity  and blood curling  terrorism typified  by  a boisterious Boko Haram assault, lack  of electricity  and incompetence to find  the Chibok girls  had made the PDP government  of  President Goodluck  Jonathan one of the most  hated  and incompetent government Nigerians    had ever  seen    or  experienced,  and its reelection  or  even un electability was a forgone conclusion that  needed  no foreign prodding from Obama’s American  government.

    Again  that is not to say  that  elections  are  simply national issues  nowadays. Far  from it,  and it  is  becoming  even easier to interfere  in elections  and blame Face  Book  or  social media for something that is a creation of technological innovation and creativity. For example  US  President Donald  Trump  has turned twitter into a potent weapon of both domestic and diplomatic politics for both policy making and adversarial campaigns against  both  real and potential opponents and  this  helped  the Republicans to increase  their  majority in the senate  in the last November 16  Mid Term elections in the US.

    More  ominous  however    is  the use of elections to  explain a naval and diplomatic  tussle between Russia  and Ukraine  this week  by the ubiquitous Russian President Vladmir  Putin  who  cheekily said Ukraine President  Poroshenko  is trying to escalate  an incident in which Russian  navy  ships rammed Ukrainian vessels  it said violated its sea borders  and territory,  thus violating Russia’s territorial integrity.  President  Putin  of  Russia  said that  his Ukranian counterpart  President  Poroshenko  is trying to divert attention away  from  his unpopularity at home in the next presidential elections slated  for March  2019  in  Ukraine. The President of Ukraine on his part  has asked the  EU  and  NATO  to deploy their ships in the waters between Ukraine  and Russia to deter  further Russian  aggression. Undoubtedly  the  Russian president  is enjoying himself  at the expense of international  law  and order in the way he  has attacked Ukraine  and gone on to  brazenly    suggest  an electoral  excuse for Ukraine in defending its territorial  integrity on international  waters in consonance with the Law  of the Seas.

    Putin  had said Russia interfered in the US 2016  presidential elections against Hillary  Clinton  because  she was Secretary  of State  in 2011  when the US  sponsored  protests  against  his election for  president in Russia  and that  the 2016  hacking in favor of Trump was  a retaliation against  the Democratic  Party presidential  candidate.  Which  boils down  to a tit  for tat  or what  the  Israelis  call an eye  for an  eye, which  is the law  of Moses.  Yet that has not  brought  peace or  security  to the  any nation      more  especially  Jews either in history  or even in modern times.

    Indeed  according to  new  reports including a CNN survey  this week Anti  Semitism  is on the rise in  Europe  and the US  and  even  in Germany which  is  Hitler’s  nation in which 6m  Jews  were eliminated in the Holocaust. In  Germany, Holocaust  denial  is a punishable crime.  But  nowadays Anti  Semitism  in the west  comes from  two  major  angles. One is  from those in Europe and US who feel  Jews  are  running  western civilization  to the detriment  of other  whites,  which  was what Hitler whipped  up  leading to the Holocaust. The  second  is  the Anti Semitism  of  Arabs and migrants  in EU nations and US  against  the  state  of Israel  and the denial  of Palestinian rights  and nationality  by the state  of Israel.  Yet  paradoxically it was Angela Merkel  the German chancellor  – who  was blamed by Trump  especially – for allowing over 1m Arab refugees into  Germany in 2015  that  her opponents claim will not integrate  – but threaten European  security.  Angela  Merkel had  since paid  a steep electoral price for what  was  an  act  of mercy  and has even lost  her leadership of  Germany as she has said she would not seek  reelection to her office again. But  then  the EU  and  the rest of Europe  and even  the US except  its president must  acknowledge  that  the migration  issue  is the issue  of the day polarising their  people  and  reinventing  nationalism  and populist leaders  like Trump  and the leaders in Poland, Hungary, Czech and  Slovak  Republics.  Some  have claimed it is at  the heart of even Brexit.

    In  a pragmatic  sense  however  what  is unsettling Europe is  also not far  from Africa. Angela Merkel  visited Nigeria, Kenya  and some  African nations in the hope of giving economic aid so  that Africans will  not flee their nations and risk  dying on the Mediterranean  and high seas  to  Italy,  where they  are not wanted on their  way  to  Europe.  Incidentally our  own  version of EU  migrants’ fear is the resort to ethnicity and tribalism  in the competition for power in 2019.  The  Igbos now  look to  the PDP  and Peter Obi  who is the presidential  running mate to the PDP presidential  candidate. The  Yorubas  as we have seen are following the APC  and  Buhari  because  you  don’t bite the finger that feeds you. Both  are a mixture of nationalism  and  populism  the  two ideologies bedeviling  western  civilization at the moment. Yet  in colonial  times we were  told that tribalism or  love of the nation state,    was abhorrent. Nowadays  it is the vogue in both former colonial  and colonized  nations. Once again  long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • Elitism, power and cowardice

    A book  launch  by  the    ruling  elites or  oligarchy  in Nigeria, a reluctance  to accept  defeat in the November 6 Mid Term primaries in  the  US,    a  statement  by the Governor  of Ekiti State  that  President  Muhammadu  Buhari  saved  the Yorubas from  political  oblivion  through  juicy  ministerial  appointments form  the kernel  of our discussion today. I  intend to show that these  events highlight in each unique  way  the manner  that the ruling class  in modern  societies cling to power  tenaciously and desperately in a way  and manner  that  beggars  description. Preservation  and survival are  the working slogans of global oligarchies  and we shall  show how  and why  in the last  week these  elites  overlook  any grievance, insults and misdemeanor as long as it does not threaten or  seek  to  withdraw  or dismantle their hold on power or  the status quo.

    We  start  with the book  launch  of Nigeria’s last  President, Goodluck  Jonathan  aptly  titled  -My  Transition  Hours ‘  attended by the ruling class in Nigeria and at which the Chairmen  of the two major  parties took  pictures  together  and  the Chairman of the occasion,  former  President  Olusegun  Obasanjo  asked Nigerians not to hand power over to thugs and hooligans. The  book itself  which  I have not read but have read about, was  really  about  how Jonathan took  the decision  to concede  defeat in  2015  after  the results showed  he  had  lost. And that  in the views of the Nigerian  ruling class    literally made him a prime candidate for the Nobel  Prize for  Peace in Nigeria. It  is a view point  that  I wish  to disagree with  and  go  on to call an act  of cowardice  that  lacks genuine leadership  credentials  of principle  and  responsibility. Indeed it is an abdication of power based on faulty intelligence which has been  used as a future  bargaining  chip  and I will  illustrate  with some portions of the book in the news media.

    According to the book the former Head of State  had gotten intelligence report that  hinted  that Nigeria would  have collapsed if he didn’t concede defeat. He  mentioned the riots that followed the results of the 2011  election that he won  and during which his opponent, now the incumbent president  had  said in 2013 that  the dogs  and the baboons  would  be soaked in blood if the outcome of the 2015  election was the same as 2011. Yet  the incumbent President was represented at the occasion by the Secretary  to the Government and  commended the author  of the book  the former President.  Again this is an author who  while in office diverted  arms  funds meant to fight Boko  Haram to  campaign purposes and whose  aides  and accomplices  are facing  various court  cases to explain their source of funds. Also  according to  Kashim  Shettima, the Governor  of Borno State  who called the book ‘an elementary  book of fiction’ Jonathan  did  not act on a report of  an inquiry set up by himself on the abducted Chibok girls which  indicted him and his advisers and aides of negligence  and inaction on initial intelligence  warnings on the Chibok  girls abduction.

    So  how  can a leader whose administration used security  funds  for campaign, and mishandled the Chibok  abduction  suddenly  become  a hero  because he  conceded defeat in an  election in which he said in the same book  that  there were justifiable  grounds  for him to  reject  the  results  but he was determined  that Nigeria  would not  disintegrate  under  his watch. Which  simply says  that he  had put  personal  achievement over what  is right  and just,  to preserve  the status  quo , which

    is the objective  of all oligarchs  and elites globally.

    In  the US Mid  Term elections history  would  have been  made if Stacy  Abrams, the Democratic Party  candidate,  a woman  had won the Governorship elections but  that was not  to  be . Of  relevance to our discussion here is that even  after a recount the  loser refused  to concede  defeat and congratulate the so  called  winner and  insisted  that  there  was no  legitimacy  in the  victory. She has been deemed as not politically  correct in her position but  I see her view  point. The  flaw  in the  electoral  arrangement favored her opponent  Brian  Kemp  a Republican who  was Secretary of State for Georgia and whose office was in charge of elections but  who  did not resign that office  while contesting for the office of governor with her. That  too  was like was being a judge in one’s case and is a clear  case of conflict  of interest  and her decision not to concede,  but  to  hurl  the charge of illegitimacy  instead  at the result,  is not only  justifiable but  bold and in the public interest.

    We  now  look at  the statement credited to the Ekiti  State Governor Kayode  Fayemi  that but for the President in Aso  Villa Muhammadu Buhari, the Yorubas of the Southwest  would have gone into political oblivion.  According to him Buhari gave Yorubas people the key Minsteries of Power, Housing and Works, and Health to Yorubas. and the Yorubas of the Southwest should reward him with  reelection. Which  to  me is quite logical  and acceptable  and  which  showed like I said last week  that  tribalism  would play a huge part in this 2019  elections.  Actually  Governor Fayemi is  a blessed oligarch of the APC mould who  has known the dark  and sweet uses of  Federal  might in the way he lost  and regained power in the State House  at  Ado  Ekiti.  Of course  his opponent and sparing partner  in their two Rumble  in the Jungle,  Ayo  Fayose now knows all that glitters is not gold  and that No  Condition is Permanent. Once again, long live the Federal Republic  of Nigeria.

  • Campaigns, issues and leadership

    Elections are  the engine room and raw meat of  democracy  and the quest  or competition for  power. Those seeking political  offices are  invariably    so desperate for power  that they can be compared to the brood of chicken following the little boy dishing out grains for the birds at dawn at farms all  over the world. Imagine the way the chicks rush  in the direction of the feeder’s   throws  of corn  and you will  understand the frenzy of politicians in searching frantically for where the corn or grain will land so that they can swallow before others and go on  looking for more grains  to fortify themselves  for the day  and the future contest   for  power. Such  is the competition for  power in all  political  systems   and today  we shall  look  at  the signals, and    the  issues that  political  leaders face in their quest  to fortify each  other so that that they can outpace and   outrun other  contestants  and  snatch  the grain of power  during campaigns and elections.

    Today  however  we do this  by looking at  some personalities in the war front of leadership of political  parties seeking  power  first in Nigeria and all  over the world.  In  Nigeria we  look at the two presidential  candidates that have emerged from the two  political parties  and their prospects in the 2019  presidential elections. We  examine  the spat  between the Senate President and the Chairman of the ruling APC  and wonder at their mutual animosity   and   conclusion that  the other is not fit to hold his position on moral  grounds. We venture  overseas  and look at how  the French President talked  down  at his American counterpart  at an event  in France  to  mark 100  years  since the end of the First  World War  in which  they both  fought  together  on the same side.

    First  let  us look at  the chances  and the credentials of the two  aspirants that emerged  from the presidential  primaries  of the  two  major  parties  namely President  Muhammadu  Buhari  of the ruling APC and  Alhaji  Abubakar  Atiku  of the  PDP  which  lost the 2015 presidential  election to the PDP. The  incumbent  president’s  main  electoral  asset  has been his reputation for discipline, asceticism, and integrity. He  has  been on the seat for three years  and is confident he  has done enough to be re  elected.

    His  opponent Alhaji  Atiku  is not a stranger  to power  having been Vice  President to President Olusegun Obasanjo  for  eight  years. Obasanjo  called him names before but  has now  endorsed him  just as he endorsed  Buhari  before  and has now  forsaken  him for   the  2019 election.  The  two running mates for the presidential  candidates  are Christians namely Prof  Yemi  Osinbajo  for the APC  and Peter  Obi  for the PDP. Osinbajo  is from  the Southwest, Ogun  state  to be specific  and was a long serving Attorney General  for Nigeria’s  foremost and  viable state,  Lagos  state,  which  is also the only state that experts say can  afford the 30000 naira  minimum wage if it is approved.  Peter  Obi  too was a successful governor  of Anambra  state  with  a reputation for prudence and integrity. What  is interesting is that the Igbos  at a meeting    said to be none partisan  have now endorsed  the Atiku  candidacy  for president on account  of his choice of an Igbo  man  to be his running mate in 2019. Which  is quite  significant  given the fact  that the Igbos, like  their rivals for power,  the Yorubas,  have never put their eggs in one basket  in their quest  for federal  power  which is the most  attractive  of the power structures in Nigeria’s  volatile democracy.

    The  Igbo endorsement  must bother  the APC or  they  will  be   like  the proverbial ostrich  with its head buried in the sand. This is because the Igbos  are   homogenous in terms of two  cultural  factors namely religion and language and in addition are well  travelled and dispersed all  over  Nigeria    and  have  large  presence globally  in diaspora. They  will  be a formidable electoral  asset  to Atiku  and  potent threat   to the APC  and the incumbent president in  2019. That  is one scenario  the APC electoral  eggheads must strategise   to  overcome. Whether  that will  raise  the specter of  tribalism in the competition for  power in 2019  is    a question begging for an answer. For  the Igbos  however  the die is cast  and Atiku  is their  champion  and good luck to them.

    Let  us now look at the verbal  gymnastics between the Senate  President Dr  Bukola  Saraki  and the APC  Chairman,  Adams  Oshiomole. The  APC  Chairman  even before  the brouhaha  that dogged  his handling of the  APC primaries  nationwide had  always  promised  that since the Senate President defected to the PDP  he  has no moral right to remain in office. Now  after the primaries  the  Senate  President now Director General  for the Atiku Campaign has  countered   that  the given  the allegations of corruption and irregularities leveled  against the APC  Chairman, he has no moral  grounds to remain  in office    as  well. But really  what are the facts on this cross  accusations on moral  grounds?. Let  us look  at  the case of the senate president as well  as his credentials before  defection.

    Undoubtedly  the Senate  President pulled  the rugs from under the feet of the APC  government  right  from day one in government. He  became President of the Senate   by default  and with  the collusion  of the PDP  and  with the benefit of hindsight,  his defection was a logical  progression. The  moral  lesson there is political  treachery  although   the punishment  ordained by  the APC  Chairman has  become an  illusion and the APC has  become like a  dog barking at the moon  in getting the  defected APC President of the Senate  removed. That  is the reality of the situation the APC Chairman  must learn  to fight or be forced  to live with.

    In  the case  of the APC  Chairman, he must  by now  know that those  who  live in glass  houses do not throw  stones.  He  should know  this  as a seasoned  and experienced trade unionist  and former  governor  of a politically  volatile  and combustible state. He  has  now seen that Lagos, Ogun  and  Imo  states  are  more  charged and  more  connected  than  the state  he left  as a powerful  godfather and kingmaker. Indeed  the comparison of what happened in Lagos and Ogun states will  be an  albatross  on the neck of the APC Chairman    in  terms  of  consistency  and integrity  in the conduct  of primaries in the APC  for  a long time. We  are watching to see  how the Eagle  will  land in this ding dong battle between  the APC  Chairman  and the elusive and mercurial  Senate  President.

    Finally  we  look  at  the event in Paris where former  enemies  and allies convened to mark the 100 year anniversary of the  end of the First  World  War from 1914 – 1918. At  the event in which many world leaders were  present,  the French President Emmanuel  Macron  denounced Nationalism  as an insult  to Patriotism and there  was no denying  that he was talking down  at the American President  Donald  Trump who  was present at  the occasion  and  who  recently admitted  he is a Nationalist. Trust the US president however  to live  to his billing in response. Donald  Trump tweeted that  but   for the intervention of the US the French  had been  subdued  and were learning German, the language of their oppressors   before  the US  joined the war  and changed  French  fortunes. Which  really is tit for tat   in  terms  of the abusive  diplomacy  that both presidents  were peddling  in quite an undiplomatic manner.  But  then   I call  for restraint on both sides  on account of historical  lessons.

    What caused  the first  World War  was an assassination of a visiting Grand Duke to Bosnia Hercegovina  and the assassin  was  a Serb. The  violence by Serbs against Bosnian  Muslims in the break up of  Yugoslavia years  later still  had echoes of the violent death of Archduke  Ferdinand in Saravejo  in  1914. It  is  not far  from the murder   this year  and quite  recently   of the Saudi journalist Kasshogi  in the Saudi  Arabia  embassy in Istanbul, Turkey, 100 years after the end of a brutal  war  that started with an  assassination.  World leaders   surely   need  to learn  from history  and watch  their language  so  that they  do  not lead  to  wars, assassinations  or the murder of journalists in foreign embassies. Once  again, long  live the Federal Republic  of Nigeria.

  • Communication, culture  and diplomacy

    Let  me confess to  a feeling of                 excitement on the issues  I  want to   write  about  today. Probably because they  already give me  as I  start,  some nostalgia about past events or because they  are quite emotional in nature and I am already  feeling passionate  about them. Please join me as I    recall  the events and  proceed to analyse  them  as usual.

    The  first  was the crowded  and racy press conference the US President Donald  Trump  gave and at  which  a CNN reporter clashed verbally with  him such  that  he wanted to leave the rostrum; and that  upset  me gravely as  a former working  journalist  who  had covered such press  conferences before. The  second was the visit of the Prince of Wales to Nigeria  and the report on a documentary  by the BBC which noted  that the aged Prince at  70  said  he would  be different  as King from his role now. Just  like  Henry  the fifth  in Shakespeare’s play Henry V, which  incidentally was the play  I studied  for my  WASC in  1968 and  I had A1 in  English  Literature.

    The  third  was the news that the EU had  recalled its Ambassador to Tanzania and was considering stopping a well  funded EU  Development Programme  because of  that  African nations laws on homosexuality. And  that  is an  issue that I feel  sooner  than later will divide Africans  and  western  nations  because  it  is  an  issue  that borders on a clash  of civilization  and culture as well as a new definition of sex and  marriage  from the  West  that is irreconcilable  to both  cultures and peoples.  Let    me now  see through  my passion on these  issues   to  arrive  at  my conclusions,    which  I  hope  should  be objective !.

    First is the verbal  gymnastics between CNN’s  Jim  Acosta  at  the press interview  given at the  White  House  by the American President after  the Nov  6  Mid  term  elections in the us. Undoubtedly  the two personalities  had  a history  of hostility and  mutual  hatred and disdain. CNN  had  unabashedly labeled the US president a compulsive liar  and he too had  called CNN  fake  news repeatedly.

    But  on this occasion it  was the mood  of CNN  and the US president after  the results of the November 6 Mid  Term elections that led to the  verbal  exchange  which  later  led to the CNN reporter  being denied access  to do his job at the White  House. The  heated exchange  to  me  was  a product  contrasting  mood of elation  on the election results  by both Donald  Trump  and the CNN. Donald Trump  was in a celebration mood because he felt victorious in the GOP improving its majority in the Senate and winning some  governorship elections  in some states in which he personally  campaigned furiously  for  Republican candidates. The CNN on  the other hand felt and showed that the President  had lost  because the Democrats had the new majority  to  control the House of  Representatives.

    In questioning Trump, Jim Dacosta  went on and on in talking about immigrants and insisting that  the US president  should  admit  what he saw as his fault in calling those in the caravan invaders. The CNN reporter was rude and the US president told him  that  much. Even though press  conference  was rowdy Trump  took on so many questions that I  gave him kudos for his self  given  assignment  during which he once asked if he had not outstayed  his welcome and the press asked him  to go on.

    To  appreciate  the element of bias against  Trump  you only need to recall  a similar post Mid term election given by Nancy Pelosi  who is expected to be Speaker in the next  Congress. It  was a very orderly affair and the press asked questions seated. Whereas  at  the White  House correspondents sprang  and  yelled questions  and in Da Costa’s case, he refused to hand over the mike even after the US President in anger,  did  as if he would leave the venue. Indeed the CNN ‘s Dacosta’s  action  was aggressive  and symbolized in physical form  the digital and communication enmity  between the CNN and  the American  president. It  was a show of  disrespect  for  the US president  and quite  shocking  and revulsive  for  me as a writer and communications professional  to behold  or  comprehend.

    The  second issue  was the statement credited to the Prince of Wales to the effect that he won’t speak on issues when  he becomes  king because  he is not stupid. He  then  referred to  some parts  of Shakespeares plays Henry 1V and  Henry  the  fifth  my favorite play. Henry V  is the story  about the Battle  of Agincourt  in which  the young Henry  who  led a dissolute  life of a youth  became  a brilliant    English leader and warrior  who  defeated  a much larger French army at the famous Battle of  Agincourt.

    Of  course I want to link this with the visit  this week  of Prince Charles to  Nigeria and the beautiful  regal  pictures he took  with the royal  fathers in  Nigeria. I  felt  happy  seeing  those pictures  and  confess  to some  element  of  colonial  mentality which Nigerians born after Independence  in 1960  may  not understand.  This is because in  spite of hostile  Nigerian  observations and writings  against Colonial  powers especially  Britain,  most former  Commonwealth subjects like me still feel  some love and affinity  for the British  royal  family. So  one can understand the Oba Of Benin  diplomatically asking future  King Charles  to arrange to return ancient war, art works    antiquities  looted from Benin, during the colonial  era,  now adorning  the  well  visited  London Museum. But  yes  in spite of that, we still  have fond memories of the Queen, her  family  and especially  of Diana, her  sons and now  the old, future King  Charles. Let  me end this bit  with an apt    quote  from  Henry V  to show that Charles  will  not say anything stupid when  he becomes king – ‘ In  peace there is nothing so  befits a  man  as modest stillness and humility;  but when  the blast  of war blows in our ears,  then imitate the action of the tiger…. ‘

    The  last  issue is the  recall  of its Ambassador  to  Tanzania  by the European  Union and  a threat to review its $700m  aid  programme spread over  2014 – 2020  to  that African  nation. The threat  is based on what  the EU  had  labeled ‘a deterioration of the human rights  and rule of law  in Tanzania because it is implementing Tanzanian laws that  forbid Tanzanians to be gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender.  On  the  surface,  to  the  EU,  this is like – who pays the piper  dictates  the tune. But  for African  nations like  Tanzania  it is  a clear  case of buyer, beware. The  EU must  learn  how  to differentiate  between laws  and values  of  non EU  nations  especially  African  nations, based on the traditions and customs of such  nations. Indeed it needs to do that before giving aid  and do due cultural  diligence  or face its own  caveat emptor in default  of such error. In  EU terms African  nations are homophobic  and anti  gay. That  does    not  however make them opponents of human  rights or traducers of the rule of  law. It  is just  their culture and that deserves respect, aid or  no  aid. Once again long live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

     

     

  • Island Club at  75 –  The  politics of renewal, inclusion and performance

    Nigeria’s premier club, the Island Club  celebrated its 75th  anniversary  this week ending tomorrow    in great style and panache. Which  is no  surprise given the pedigree, location and history of a club that has produced in quick succession the leaders of  the  old, colonial, modern  and post independent Nigerian  society.  These were  the leaders and shakers of ideas, including  our  barons and captains of  industry. In  the long line of activities marking the event I want  to comment on two lectures given  by  the most important patrons of the Club  namely  the Grand Patron who traditionally is the incumbent president of Nigeria and its Patron, the incumbent Governor of Lagos state. The  topic of the Nigerian President’s  lecture  was –‘ Nation Building and Institutional Development, Lessons for  Nigeria From  the Island  Club at  75 ‘ and it  was delivered  by former Lagos state governor  and Minister  for  Housing Power and Works  Mr  Babatunde Raji  Fashola SAN  on behalf  of the Nigerian President Muhammadu  Buhari. The second lecture was delivered  by incumbent  and outgoing governor of Lagos state Mr  Akinwunmi  Ambode  and the title was- Nation  Building;  Communities , Inclusion and Prosperity.

    Without  mincing words  let  me say  a few  things on my  initial expectations on the two  topics  which  were anchored on the  elusive task  of  nation building which  hitherto  in my view  has  been  an elusive  mirage that  has  not taken  off  and is at  best  very slow work in progress  in  Nigeria.  This  has  been      very much to  the vexation  and chagrin of  millions  of  long  suffering Nigerians. In  the first lecture  the Minister  of PWH represented his boss very  well. He  reminded me of the former Minister of Information  in the  Babangida era  Chief  Alex  Akinyele,  who whenever  he  represented his boss  always  assured his  audience  of the weight  of his  representation  by  affirming at the start  of such lecture that  – ‘ when  you  have seen  the hand of the tiger, you  have seen the tiger’. In  Fashola’s  case,  however  not  only was the hand of the tiger on display, its    body  was totally present  and the reason  was not far fetched. The  former  Lagos governor  overlooks  three  very  important portfolios in the Buhari Administration  which  is  more than  that  assigned  any other Minister. In  taking  on the role of his Master’s  voice therefore Governor Fashola  was  actually  defending his own  performance  in office  in the context  of nation building.

    In  Governor Ambode’s case I  wondered  at  the use of the word ‘Inclusion’ in the title of a topic  given  to a governor  who  has just  been ambushed out of office by party leaders who accused  him of sidelining them in terms of Inclusion in his style  of  governance.

    I  thought  Ambode was a finished product politically  and  if  given the opportunity to ask  him any    question  at  the lecture I will simply  ask  him    to   explain    why he was closing the stable doors  after  the horses  have bolted  or  why  he  was getting wise as it  were  after  the event.

    Let  me  confess that on both  lectures  and their delivery  I  was pleasantly  surprised  and  I  ask  for  some understanding  on the reasons why.  The  Buhari  lecture  turned  out to be a campaign for re-election as president  of  Nigeria,  which  is  to  be expected as the Island  Club  is a most  potent ground  and  place  for opinion moulding and vote  catching for any  presidential  candidate  not to talk  of an incumbent  seeking reelection.  The  lecturer highlighted the success  of  the Buhari  Administration in Agriculture  and self sufficiency in food production. The  achievements of the  Buhari government in  Industry, Infrastructure, Power Generation, and Distribution, Road  Construction were highlighted  in  a  surprising way.  Which showed  that  the government  needs  to pep  up  its 2019 performance  campaign  as most  of these  projects  are  not  to the knowledge of the Nigeria electorate and 2019  is already literally here. The  lecturer  then  asked  for patience in appreciating the changes  being wrought  to improve the plight of the Nigerian  masses.

    He  gave an analogy of how the Eagle at  40  years needed a 150  day break  to renew its  vigor and energy  to live for another 30  years. But  really,  patience is what  the Nigerian  people can  ill  afford to lavish  on the Buhari  government as it    already  has the good will  and empathy to  move Nigeria forward  without  further delay.

    Especially  on the issue  of  security  and the emergence of renewed Boko  Haram onslaught in the face of claims of their  annihilation by the government.  Of  course  one can  admit that  Rome was not built in a day    but  it  should  not  take eternity  to  achieve  results given  the right  decisions that  recognize  the multiethnic  nature and wide diversity  of the Nigerian nation and people.

    The  Ambode  lecture  was  ironically  a lecture on how  to govern and achieve  prosperity  by  carrying the people from  all aspects of life along in communities  on  a band wagon  of Inclusion.  The governor highlighted the achievements of his outgoing government vividly in a way that showed what Lagos State  would miss in his absence and it  was a moving,  revealing discourse  and spectacle.

    He  mentioned his provision of infrastructure especially  street lighting, terminuses  and link roads  and bridges which  are there to see. He  talked  of  how his government has  boosted  youth employment  by investing in  tourism, entertainment, sport  and art facilities which  Nigerian  youths  are  enjoying including facilities  for  the disabled. Ambode  raised the issue of  migration into  Lagos  and  Nigeria which  is increasing on a daily  basis in Lagos   especially,  and  averred that all  Nigerians from all over the  nation are flocking into Lagos  such  that the state infrastructure  can never  cope. He  affirmed  that the influx  of migrants into  Lagos  was because other  states are  not  performing and Nigerians have Lagos to look  up  to  for sustenance  and survival. That  he said is responsible  for the perennial Lagos traffic logjam  and quagmire.  In  all  the Lagos state governor secured my admiration and empathy  with  his lecture on governance and nation building    and  I think  that was the mood  of his audience in the prestigeous  Island  Club  and that is quite significant  and important  for  him and the Nigerian  nation.

    That  mood  of  empathy  was reflected in the comments of one  of the Trustees of the Island Club who  prayed  for Ambode  like the Oba of Lagos did  recently. The Trustee, Chief  Olu  Falomo a former broadcaster and Advertising guru is undoubtedly  the  club’s philosopher,  our own  Socrates and a gifted  orator. He  said  he was meeting the Lagos state  governor for the first  time and was impressed  with  his calmness and  humility. He  said in  Yoruba that  God  is not finished  with him yet  and he –Ambode –  would see that sooner than  later. It  is  a prayer  fit for  a king, albeit  one  who  has  just  lost  his stool.  It  is  also    a sign that  God  is not finished  with Ambode yet.  Just  like Jesse Jackson said  of himself when he lost the nomination for the presidential  candidacy    of the Democratic    Party    in the US sometime ago. Once again  long live the  Federal  Republic of Nigeria.

  • Elections, migration  and power

    It  sounds far  fetched to link migration of people  with  the quest for power in any  democracy. This is because on the face of it migrants are like gypsies who never stay put and are not likely to be around or registered for elections if and when due. I  remember  a favorite  quotation of mine  that  I  pasted  on the wall of my room at  Unife  that  says ‘Time,  you  old gypsy man, will  you not stay, put  up your caravan, just for one day?  But  that  now is an ancient myth. Nowadays in the  global  village we live in migrants dominate  global politics  in a way  and manner  never  seen before.  In  recent times it was a phenomenon  started by the invasion of Iraq in  2003 in the Middle East but  it blossomed into the violence of the Arab Spring in 2011  and crystallised  in    a desperate  avalanche  of  migrants  heading to Europe, fleeing the war  in Syria to dislodge its president.

    That  led to the emergence of ISIS  and the massive Arab influx  into Europe through Greece and Italy as  well  as Hungary. That  has had  a massive influence on  recent  elections and distribution of power in European  nations based on those for and those against migration. We shall  see  more of that later. It  is the import of  migration on past  and coming elections in both the US  and  Nigeria  that  attract  my attention today and since elections involve  voters in a nation I  want  to discuss the  issue of census and  migration  and how both will impact the 2019 presidential  elections  in  Nigeria as well  as the 2020 presidential  elections in  the  US.  In  Nigeria President Muhammadu Buhari  came to power  in  2015  on a crest of popularity based on his reputation for discipline, integrity and  huge potential  and experience  to fight corruption  and  create  security in the face of  persistent  Boko  Haram  terrorism. In the US, President Donald  Trump  came to power on a bandwagon of anti establishment and anti  political  correctness and  the nationalist creed which  he finally agreed this week  to – Make  America Great Again. Both  leaders  and gentlemen  are to defend  their records and performance in their two nations in 2019  in Nigeria and 2020  in the US respectively. Both  of course  are confident they  have done well but they  have not become complacent about it. They  are  both looking at the population and its shifts in terms of migration and registration of voters as well as both the increased enfranchisement as well as disenfranchisement of voters,  if  possible so that they can get more votes than their contestants and  competitors  to stay in power for another term of office. That  is the crux of the matter  we shall  look at  today.

    In  Nigeria the Boko  Haram menace is still on  but  the President feels that the  terrorists have been cut to size  and are operating more like guerrillas. He  feels that the fact that they  are not involved in regular battle shows that they have been vanquished. Yet they  still  use  girls as suicide  bombers to kill innocent people in Maiduguri  near Army barracks.  Boko  Haram  still operates in the former  North  East  from where six  states  were carved out after the census of  1974 put the population at 15m. The states are Borno, Bauchi, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba, Yobe.  The  North  East of Nigeria is a vast  area but it is very  arid and there  was great controversy  that it could sustain  the census  figure  given  for it then  and even more  so  now. Especially  now  that we  have the Fulani Herdsmen migration for  water  to the south  and the clashes between  the Fulani  herdsmen  and  farmers  who  have been killed and maimed in states like Benue and  Plateau so  much  that the governor of Benue left the ruling party because of lack of support from Abuja. Although the presidency  has attributed the Fulani herdsmen and farmers clash to the search for water  and  the influx of non Nigerians from Libya  after the collapse of the Gaddafi  regime there  is no denying that the tension between the Fulani herdsmen and farmers will affect the security and voting turn out in the affected areas in both North East  and Middle Belt of Nigeria. It  is pertinent that the Fulani  herdsmen umbrella organization  has stated clearly that it is in support of the reelection of the incumbent president which makes the organization not only a migrant welfare body  but a powerful political  organ  on its own. But  the organization should look at what it is up against in the main opponent of the president in PDP’s  Abubakar  Atiku  and his running  mate  Peter Obi  a  former governor  from the East  and  an  Igbo.

    In  terms of  migration in Nigeria, not many ethnic groups can  match the Igbos. Whilst  the Fulani  herdsmen or cattle Fulani  are looking for water down south with or without grazing rights,  the Igbos are all  over  Nigeria  looking for  business in the North especially  and mostly in Lagos. A  true census in Lagos  state  will show  the population strength of  the Igbos  and if that  is translated to voting rights, it is bound to favor any party they belong to. So  the  Atiku/ Obi  PDP ticket  is a potent one that  the

    APC must  strategise  to confront and contain and  the ruling  party needs to dust  off not only census figures on migration in Nigeria but also  sales figures of major marketing companies who  know where their consumers are all over the nation. Such  data  may  be more productive  and votes yielding than  campaign  promises this time around.

    Interestingly  the 2020  census in the US  is  already  being targeted by the Republicans so  that they  can get  rid  of migrants  so that  they  cannot  vote for  the Democrats who  are the usual party of such migrants and blacks –  that is if you believe  the Liberals or Democratic  Party of the US. This is because a new form on census form  asks  for citizenship  and the Democrats say  this is not necessary. I remember reading  an article by the Obama Administration Attorney  General  Eric  Holder  that said census is for those  living in the nation for planning and economic purposes and not for citizens.  Now  with  Trump’s ant migration war it  tallies  that  the Republicans will want to get the votes by cutting off  illegal migrants who may not want to expose themselves by  coming  to  vote. Which  really is difficult  to  understand  for a Nigerian like me who thinks that if you are not a Nigerian  you  should  not vote.

    Yet  in Nigeria all  residents turn out to vote at  our  voting centers including  mostly Okada riders and security  maigads  from Niger,  Chad    and neighboring  nations, who  at times outnumber their  Nigerian  bosses  and  other  bona fide  Nigerians  at polling stations at election time. So  really  who is doing the right thing here between the US  and Nigeria?  I  wonder  what  the professors at  INEC  have to  say  on this as we approach  the 2019 elections. That is if it is not too late. Once again long live the Federal  Republic of Nigeria.

  • Religion, politics and impunity

    I  recently  wrote that politics is ubiquitous and you  find it in all aspects of human life. I  intend to dilate further on that  today especially with regard to  politics, religion,  the media  and diplomacy. I was prompted on this repetition of the ubiquity  of politics  by  two  incidents here in Lagos this week. The first happened when my good friend Dr Demola  Farri, a  veteran psychiatrist  called  me’ Kashoggi ‘ as I entered  the premises of the Yorubal Tennis Club this week and  I did  not  know whether to laugh or cry.  This  was  because  I had  been very  bothered  about the disappearance of  the  Washington  Post Saudi  columnist  who entered the Saudi Arabia embassy in Istanbul the Turkish  capital  and has not been seen alive since.

    The  second event  was  the  statement  by the Catholic Church  that the  role of the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Matthew  Kukah  in the reconciliation of former President  Olusegun Obasanjo  and his former Vice Abubakar Atiku, now a Presidential candidate    was’ hijacked  and politicized’. Indeed  both  events are very political  and  there  is no  doubt  that  they show  the ubiquity  of  politics.  The  Catholic  Church  should  know better than  to use  the word ‘politicize ‘  in  the defence  of its bishop  as  the Catholic  Church  historically    and  till  now has been  the  seat  of erudition, learning  and  was  once  the government  at a time when  Church  was the state. And    the Kasshogi  disappearance showed  the ubiquity  of politics  in a rather  tragic  and grim  manner that  lacked any  trace of  good humor  except  perhaps the morbid type  and being called Kashoggi greatly  upset  me and set  my mind on writing  on the subject today.

    To  appreciate  what Bishop Matthew Kukah  did as a  form  of political  intervention  in reconciling  two  Nigerian  leading politicians,  one  should take a look  at the concept  history  of Liberation theology which  the Catholic  Church used  and endorsed for  its    bishops  in Latin  America. It  was an activist theology that showed  that the Church  could not  be idle in the face of tyranny, persecution  of the poor  and the enslavement  of  the masses. Matthew Kukah  may  not mention Liberation  Theology in Nigeria but he has always spoken out against injustice and discrimination in the Nigerian  polity. If  he chose to mediate between Obasanjo  and Atiku  he was simply living up to his billing as an activist,  patriotic  Nigerian cleric.  To say  that  his role was hijacked  and politicized  was begging the issue  and apologetic and a  disservice  to his reputation as  a well known  and well meaning  Nigerian  bishop  and priest. To  say  his role as reconciliator  and peace maker  was politicized  is  absolutely uncalled  for  and in poor  taste.

    In  addition whether Kukah  intervened or  not politics  has always had  ample  room  to accommodate religion  in  Nigeria,  both  at Abuja  and  the  Federal  Level  and right  here in our  commercial capital, the beautiful  city  of Lagos the  capita  of  Lagos state.

    Religion  was what  led to the APC  fielding Ambode in the 2015  guber elections  and religion  has  led  to his being replaced  by  another Christian.  The strategy  has served  the party  well  and  has placated Christians who  were  getting restive that past governors had been more Muslims  than  Christians. It  was also  the strategy that had a Christian Vice  President of  Nigeria in the illustrious and performing Professor  Yemi  Osinbajo  in Aso  Rock  to  support President Muhammadu Buhari as President  of  Nigeria. It  is a strategy that paid off for APC in 2015  and  since  you don’t  change a winning team  it  is the ticket  of the party for 2019  presidential elections.

    The  opposition too  is not immune to the influence  of religion. That is who Peter Obi, a former governor  and Christian,  has been chosen  to be  the running mate of  Alhaji  Abubakar Atiku  a Muslim. The  PDP  believes  this is a winning ticket  mainly  because the South  East of Nigeria  is predominantly Christian. Indeed  Atiku hails  from the North  East  which  housed  the Karnem  Bornu  Empire a Kanuri  Muslim  kingdom  which  boasted  that it was never conquered  by  the Fulani Caliphate and  was a Muslim Empire  with its own Islamic  sovereignty outside  the  ambits  of the famous Sokoto  Caliphate.  So  Atiku  is throwing  two  caps into  the Nigerian  political ring for presidency. One  is the challenge of the North East to the dominance of the North West  in the competition for power in Nigeria. The  second is  the bringing in of the Christian Igbos into  the main stream  of Nigerian  politics after  the bitter civil  war. It  is a very  interesting challenge in terms of history, politics  and religion  in  Nigeria. It  is  really  going to make  the 2019  presidential  race in Nigeria very challenging and exciting  and we are watching very keenly.

    The  Kashoggi  Disappearance  provides  a great lesson in the misuse of  diplomatic immunity with impunity. That  actually  was  what has aroused Turkey’s  outrage that  a murder  has been carried out in the Saudi Embassy  on Turkish territory  and there is not much Turkey can do because the Saudi embassy  is sovereign territory. In international  law that explained  why  Britain cannot  enter  the embassy in London where  the Wiki  Leaks editor  has been  hiding  for years. In  Kashoggi’s  case  the Turks  raised  alarm  and alleged the journalist  has been killed  and his body broken into  parts but they had no proof. Turkish investigators were only able to enter the Saudi embassy  two weeks after Kashhoggi  went there to get his divorce  papers. A good  enough time for the assassins to clean up their act. It  is very  much like closing the stable doors  after the horses  have bolted. Clearly  a good journalist  has  been eliminated  because  he dared  and wrote  that  the powers that be in Saudi  Arabia  must  reform  and rule  with  compassion and understanding  of their people and make reforms to  make leadership and use of power in the kingdom  accountable  and  transparent. I pray  for  the repose  of his soul  even  though he has not been declared dead but there is no doubt that this is state murder on foreign soil.  It  is indeed  a slap  in the face for international law and diplomacy.

    It  is interesting  that  both Turkey  and Saudi  Arabia  have historical  grudges  that  is playing itself out in this Kashoggi saga. The  grudges are both historical and religious .At  the height of the Ottoman Empire which  was stopped in terms of expansion and rule of Europe in Vienna, the Turks  dominated the Caliphate and provided military leadership  for a Muslim Empire founded in  Saudi Arabia. A famous  historian  once wrote that as the Ottoman Empire became military in leadership and as the Turks took  over that leadership, the Empire became Turkish.  Such  historical  rivalry is still very much at play  in the way Turkey’s modern Emperor President Tayyip  Erdogan is taking on the house  of Saud, the ruling dynasty in power in modern Saudi  Arabia. Erdogan  is very  indignant in crying  foul over the Kashoggi  tragedy  on Turkey’s  soil.  It  is not a false  alarm or crying wolf where there is none. It  all  the same has its roots  not  necessarily  in this Kashoggi  matter  but in an ancient  and    historical Islamic  feud  and enmity. Once again long  live the Federal  Republic of Nigeria.