The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Victory, nemesis and reality

    The  Nigerian  presidential  and National Assembly elections  of February  23 have come and gone and President Muhammadu Buhari  has been reelected by a margin of about  4m votes.

    His  defeated opponent Abubakar  Atiku  has  not conceded  defeat and  has not congratulated the winner and  his excuse  is that  ‘the election was not free  and fair  but was marred by many  irregularities’.

    In the senate, the Senate President was defeated  and lost  his seat while the Speaker  was reelected.  It  is in the context of the victory  of the reelected president, the defeat of the Senate President and the inability  of the defeated presidential  candidate in these  elections  to  accept  defeat  that,  I  have  couched today’s headline.  I enjoin you  therefore  to come along with me as I    dilate  on a victory  that the winner  must  savour  for several  reasons. It  comes  alongside  a defeat  for a Senate President that    I call  Nemesis.  Which  is inevitable retributive justice  for  a member  of the ruling APC  who  threw spanner in the works  for  the party  whilst  it  was  savouring  its    2015 victory    and  was preparing to go  over to the Legislature  to take power four years  ago.

    It  is necessary    first  and foremost  to congratulate  the winner on his reelection. Quite  typical  of his levelheadedness  and magnanimity in victory  however  he has asked his followers  not  to gloat or  humiliate  the losers  of  the opposing  party  in their celebration of  victory. That  is  how  it  should  be although there is  no denying  that  in politics,  as in  life, failure  is an  orphan  whilst  success  has many  fathers. The  defeated candidate  has  promised to  go to court  to contest  the election results  and the Secretary  to the Government  of the Federation –SGF –  has  said    at  a victory  party  of the,  that the  victorious and re-elected  government  is  not  afraid  of  any litigation  on its  victory  because Nigeria  is a democracy.  Which  again  is  a positive development  for  our  democracy, as  in any  meaningful democracy  the majority  must  have its  way  whilst  the minority must  have  its  say.

    It  follows  therefore  that Abubakar  Atiku who  lost  the  election by  4 million  votes must  be allowed  to have his day in court  and air  his grievances in open court for the courts  to pronounce  judgement  one way or the other. Even  all  the way  to the Supreme  Court for  a final  and incontestable  decision of the highest  court  of the land.  That  is the way  and manner  our presidential system  of  government works,  according to our constitution  and  under  the rule  of  law. It  follows  that although  victory  has  been  lost  and won, it is not over until  it is over for  the Nigerian  presidential  elections  as the battle  has shifted  from  the  polling  booths  to  our temples  of  justice. There  they    will  proclaim on the legality, acceptance, or otherwise  on the way  and manner  the elections were  conducted  on February  23,  2019,  nation  wide.

    It  is therefore necessary  and pertinent  to  consider  the nature of victory, the manner of    retribution  or indignation    on  it and  the  reasons  for  rejection of  the presidential  election by the loser. In  pursuit  of this  we draw on the actions and utterances of the  political  actors  who  participated  in the postponed  election  which  had  Nigerians  very  apprehensive and anxious on  a peaceful  outcome  which  has however  materialized even  though  some  30  Nigerians  lost their lives  to  election

    violence.

    Let  me state clearly  that  I am  happy  that  I predicted  that the deterrence order on election  riggers by  the president    would  work positively  for his  re election. It  surely  has worked  for  him and his party  as it  showed they  had a stake  in the integrity of the Nigerian  electoral  process  as well  as  a peaceful  and fair election  which    the  president  has successfully supervised.  It is necessary  to remind  the reelected  president that he promised  to take  up  INEC  on  the unexpected  postponement after  the elections.  It  is necessary  to do  this  and not allow  it  to be forgotten  in the euphoria  of  victory,  no matter  how  sweet.

    Undoubtedly, the president’s  victory  was due  to massive turn out in Kano, Kaduna  and Katsina  his  home  state. These  three  K states-  3K –  have shown  that they  are  the crown jewels of  the Nigeria’s  participatory  democracy  as they  showed  that  even  as voter  turn out  was minimal  nation  wide  the turn out in the 3K states  was  stupendous  and  was the reason  for  the victory  and reelection of  the winner.  In  effect  then  the energetic, nation  wide  campaign  of  the winner was  not  in vain.

    Similarly his campaign  strategists  seem  to know  their  onions well  and can enjoy  their  victory  which  they have earned. There  is  no denying that they know Nigeria like the palm of their hands  and know  where voter  registration and  turn  out  matter  and they  zeroed in on that  and the result  has  been  productive  in the scale of  victory of their  presidential  candidate and their  party.  Surely  they can  afford to beat their chest  and  pat themselves on the back  for a job well  done.

    Nevertheless  it is necessary  to look at  the other  side of the coin, which  is the losing side in this election. In  a published speech, the loser  Atiku  Abubakar  lamented that  in his three decades long involvement  in Nigeria’s  politics he has ‘  never  seen our democracy  so  debased ‘ as it was  in the February  23  presidential  election. According to him  – democracy  will  not be emasculated in Nigeria ‘as  he insisted that  there  were predetermined  malpractices in several  states.  He  reportedly wondered  why  states  that were  ravaged  by  terrorism  had  more voter turn  out  than  those  that  were  not. He  said that  would seem  to endorse  the view  that insecurity  guaranteed  larger  voter turn  than  security.

    On  that score  the loser  seems  to  have  missed  the point especially  as a  Nigerian leader  from  the  North.  Repeated census  figures in Nigeria, on which  parliamentary  seats, local governments  and states  have been  created, have  always  favored the  North  and  census  is  a sore  point  for the  Nigerian  state and  its  politics. For  someone who  was a Vice  President  and has benefitted  from this  arrangement politically, it  is like crying  wolf  when  there  is  none  on  the 3K  states  large voter  turn out, or  terrorism  and  immense  voter  turn  out this  time  around.  The  census  figures  are  there  for  all to  see. Whether  they    correspond    with  North  –  South migration,    climate  change,  ecological  or  demographic  reality in our  large  and diverse nation, is another  matter. For  now the election results  reflect  our  legal  demographic  realities and the loser  should  go  to court  as he has promised. Nevertheless  in  my  view,  he has shown  more guts  and    sincerity  in airing  his dissent,  far  better  than  the peace  of the grave yard  that  was secured after  the  2015  elections.  Once  again, long live the Federal Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Rigging, deterrence and stability

    Nigerians  go to the polls today in a determined  manner that  finally they will  vote  today  and not be told  the  polls  have been postponed  by  INEC, as it happened  last  Saturday, February 16. Today Nigerians  head  to the polls  not because the INEC  boss  said  only an act  of God  can stop  the polls today  but  because  of  the threat  of  death for  riggers  and vote snatchers  issued by no less a person  than the man in charge  of the security of the Nigerian nation, President  Muhammadu  Buhari, also  a candidate  for re-election  in today’s  presidential  election.  To  Nigerian, his call to arms on riggers  and democracy  saboteurs  is more credible

    than any  assurances  from INEC,  which  has acquired very  quickly, a reputation for  bungling  and postponing  much  awaited elections at  the dying ,  last  minutes  of commencement  of  voting.

    To  non Nigerians  or even  the foreign  election  observers  it  may  seem perfect  that  a presidential  assurance of security  to be provided by a sitting government should  be taken  for granted  but  such assumption is  a simple demonstration of  ignorance  of  the political  culture  of Nigeria.

    The  fact  of  the Nigerian political  way  of life is that  rigging is so  common  in our politics, such  that  even  in safe areas, overzealous  politicians still mobilise  their  supporters  to illegally  thumbprint several  ballot  papers  to  make  assurances  of victory  doubly sure. Which  often  times lead to counted votes being more  at times  than registered voters in various  voting localities.

    So  Nigerians go to the polls today  under a cloud  of  deterrence that  those who  rig must  pay  with their lives  for  their fraudulent  political  crime.  Again  the lame duck  INEC  has said election laws  must  be followed. But  did  the president ask  that riggers  be shot  at  sight? Definitely not. Did the electoral laws  deter riggers before the presidential  threat?  Definitely  not.

    Which  then  means that  the  strength  of  this threat has  sunk in with  those who make an ass  of  the law by rigging during elections.  So  if  indeed  some people think  a  dark    cloud or threat    is  hanging over  today’s  election, I say  every  cloud has its  silver  lining.  The  silver  lining is the deterrence of elimination  for  riggers  and unless  for  those who  have suicidal tendencies, I  see  rigging  at its  minimal in this election  as I do  not think  that  even  the threat  on  life  will  eradicate rigging  completely  from  our  political  culture.  This  is because  rigging  like corruption  is very  much  an  established way  of life in Nigeria.

    Now  let  us look  at today’s  elections and the chances  of the two presidential  candidates  and the two  leading  parties APC  and  PDP. We  must  also  take a position  on INEC’s  credibility  and capacity  to  conduct  a free  and fair  election. We  assume  that at  the end of  the day  the parameters for  a level  playing  ground have    been laid in spite  of all  the odds showing,  and pray  that no  act of  God  will  truncate  the polls  today  as again unnecessarily  observed  by the INEC boss.

    I  think  the postponement  has created  new  challenges  for  both candidates. For  President  Buhari  it  has exposed  him  to charges of trusting everything  to  INEC and  he must  accept  responsibility for  INEC’s  shoddy  performance  which  the postponement  of  the presidential  elections  represents. If  anything  the INEC Chairman Professor Mahmood  Yakubu  has  not shown  requisite competence and maturity  for  the job. Without  any prompting  he said  the polls  will  never be postponed  and he postponed it. Now for  today  he said only an act of God  will make that possible. Why is he obsessed with postponement?. It  shows  an inherent lack  of confidence  and capacity to execute  his mandate.

    This  has  riled the president who  appointed  and trusted him  hence the threat  to riggers  which  goes beyond INEC but  is really  the saving grace for the president’s reputation  for toughness  and integrity. That threat  is similar  to US  President Trump’s  obsession  to build  his wall  against  drug smugglers and  illegal  immigrants  and ensure the safety  and security  of  all Americans.  It  is similar  to that of  the Phillipines  President order  to  shoot  drug smugglers.

    Human  rights  champions  may  condemn  such  aggressive  leadership styles  but  they  deter potential  fraudsters  who  violate  state laws  and security  and enrich  themselves  at  the expense of innocent  citizens.  The  threat  has strengthened the hand of the Nigerian  president  and will greatly  affect  his  chances  for re-election  quite  favorably.

    Similarly  the postponement  has thrown  the ball  into  the court of the PDP with  regard  to charges  of  rigging.  How  can  the PDP deny  it has no plan to rig when it is condemning a leader who  has sworn that those who rig will pay with their lives? The  PDP  should have  publicly accepted the challenge and offer  to play  ball so that we can, if possible  have a  free and  fair  election  which was the objective of the voter deterrence issued  by the president.

    I  know  this threat  will  not deter Igbo  solidarity  and support for  Atiku  presidential  ticket  because  of his running  mate  Peter Obi. But  the postponement has stretched  the resources  and anxiety of PDP  as a party  and it  is as if the party had prepared  for  a 100  meter  race  which  the postponement  has now turned into a marathon,  with  attendant  negative consequences  to maintain the momentum of  support  for its  ticket  made,  make or break,  for last  Saturday.

    One  can  only  pray  for  a peaceful  election  and  no further bungling of postponement  by  INEC on  today’s  election.  It  is nice  to know that  the army and the military  through  their leadership  have pledged  loyalty  to the Nigerian state in securing these  2019  elections.  Some  how  I  think  Nigerians  believe them.  This  is because what  is uppermost  on the minds of most Nigerians  is  to  have  the opportunity  to  show  what  they want by  voting the leader of their choice as well  as  the party of  their choice into  power. That  really  is the essence of  democracy, regardless  of  unwanted postponements  and planned  or  cultural rigging.  Once  again long live  the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Our presidential election, peace and stability

    Today  is the day  of the 2019 Presidential Elections in Nigeria  and the fate and control  of the Nigerian polity is up for grabs.  More importantly, there is palpable fear  and anxiety over the results of the election. Yet  the  two  main  candidates are  men of peace who have signed a peace  accord to    accept  the ‘results  of the election.  The APC candidate, a fatherly  figure  and    incumbent President of Nigeria,  President  Muhammadu  Buhari  has said that it is not  a do or die election as he has lost elections before and he is calling  on  Nigerians to reelect  him    on his performance, especially  in  fighting  corruption on an unprecedented scale.

    The PDP  candidate  Alhaji  Abubakar  Atiku  quoted former  President Goodluck  Jonathan  to  the effect  that  his ambition is not worth the blood  of any  Nigerian. That  so  much  attention is focused  on a peace  agreement  signed by the two  major contestants  before  the elections  means that the prospect  and menace of post  election violence  are  real  and potent.

    All  the same both  the contestants  and their  parties  as well as the peace motivators, know  that  a winner  must  emerge in a free and fair  election  and it is the responsibility  of the winner  to be magnanimous in victory  and the loser  to accept the loss  gracefully, like a sportsman  and not resort  to  accusations  of rigging and electoral  malpractices  which  are  the  hallmarks  of election losers in  Nigeria.

    Indeed  post  election litigations  have  become a booming  industry in the legal  and judicial  system  in  Nigeria  and  has  made multi millionaires    of  many  Nigerian legal  practitioners  especially the SANs,  although  this is not generally  included in list  of actions that  constitute  post election violence. Yet  a situation where political  litigants and opponents draw  from the same pool  of legal  representation is fraught  with  great  potential  to fuel serious  political  acrimony  that are bound  to  task  the  stability of the  Nigerian  political  system.

    However  the grim  prospect  of  violence in the absence of peace should  not dampen our enthusiasm  today  to  either  reelect  our president  or choose  a new one and live in peace thereafter. That peaceful  existence  after  today’s  election is the goal  of this write  up regardless  of the result of  today. It  is my  contention that the two  candidates  are  fulfilled  men  who  have made their marks in life and in the political  life of this nation. I believe that they  are both capable of taking the result with equanimity whether  in their favor  or  not. It  is their managers  and campaign organisers  who  should  be monitored  not to inflame passion  and hatred  once the results is against them. I listened  to two spokesmen  of the  PDP and it was  obvious  they  were mobilizing their  members  for  a  war  although they asked  their  40m  members to resist  any  attempt  at  the polling booth  to  rig. Asking people to  resist  rigging is a civic  duty of  all  voters  of all parties  and not that  of  PDP  members alone.

    So, that belligerence  in asking for vigilance  at  polling  booths is  not necessary  as  all  parties will  benefit  from a level  playing ground  which INEC  has sworn  to provide  and which  we all  have come to believe  and is why  we  are  voting in the presidential elections  to  day. Such  a call  against  rigging  before  even the election  has  the potential  to  disrupt  election  results on a false premise of    losing  because  of  rigging , when  the  results do  not favor  the PDP. It  is a dishonest  way  of  shouting fire

    when there is none.

    Yet  the same  PDP  seem  to  have  gone out of its way  to  woo Nigerians to vote  for its  presidential  candidate to win this election. I was stunned  to hear  a recorded  voice  message  on my phone  this week  saying  – I  am  Atiku  Abubakar, please vote for me to get Nigeria  working again. That  is a beautiful  campaign with confidence  in the political  process  totally  opposite  to that  of the PDP spokesmen  crying wolf  on  rigging  even  before the presidential  election.  This reminded me of  the 2016  US presidential  campaign  of  Donald  Trump who  said  he would not accept  the result  of the election if he lost because  it would  have been  rigged.  I  thought  then  that  he should  have been called to order  for  undermining the integrity of the electoral  process.

    But  he  too surprised  himself  by winning  when  he did  not  even have  confidence  in the electoral  system  and the rest  is history. It  is my  belief  that the results  will  be so  glaringly  clear that  the prospect  of violence will  quickly  recede into  general acceptability. This  is  because  Nigerians will  be on the look out for  riggers  and expose them  so that they  can  have a transparent free and  fair  election. I  do  not need  to say  who  I will  vote for  but let  me appraise the two  candidates and leave    you  to

    your  guess on that.

    I  start  with  President Muhammadu  Buhari  our  president and the presidential  candidate  of the APC. Before,  his  opponents  have used  his  health  to  ridicule  him.  They  even said  he has  been cloned. By  now  such  people  must  be laughing from the other  side of their mouth.  On  the campaign trail  the  APC  candidate  turned frailty  and taciturnity  to steely  decisiveness and  leadership grit. In  Abeokuta  and Imo  state  he  composedly  established  his leadership of the party and extolled  the primacy  of the people’s choice  in the acceptance of  governorship  candidates. In  Rivers he was bold to acknowledge  the loss  of  governorship  and legislative  seats  while  lamenting  the poor  state  of institutions he inherited  especially  the judiciary. The  case  of the  Chief Justice of Nigeria  on the eve  of the  election  could  only have been  undertaken  by a fearless  president of  Nigeria. In campaigning for reelection, PMB  has shown  both his new  friends and old that  internal  rancor and old  loyalties  can be handled maturely  with  relevant  experience both off  and on the field  of civilian  and military  politics. He  reminded  me of that American general  who  told his officers  on the eve of  a battle –‘ We  have seen  the enemy  and the enemy  is us’. The  general  then led his officers  to a routing of  the enemies without.

    The  PDP presidential  candidate  Atiku  Abubakar,  to  me    is the comeback  kid  in a way  in Nigeria’s  politics. In  his favor this time is his choice of  running  mate in Peter Obi  a former  Igbo governor. The  Igbos  have adopted him as their candidate  as such.

    The results  will  show how  strong  or otherwise  the Igbo presidential  clout is. The  converse  is that  the Yorubas  will not forget or forgive a ticket  that sidelines  them  when  there  is an  alternative  that  has their  son  Professor  Yemi  Osinbajo  as running  mate. In  addition  the  Turaki  Adamawa  does  not have the same  political  stature  as  Buhari  in the hard  core  North  of Nigeria. If  you  add  to this the fact  that  it is former  Head of State  Olusegun  Obasanjo  who  is in the driving seat  to  get Atiku  elected,  you  have to take  cognizance  of  his promoter’s political    and    leadership record to assess  his chances of success or failure  at today’s election. So  at  the end of the day it is  the personalities  of  the candidates  that  will  drive the voters in voting in this presidential election.  And, may the better  man win.  Once again, long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

     

     

  • Elections, clash of powers and expectations

    Nigerians  go to the polls  this month  to  elect a new or  old president  in  an election that Nobel  Laureate Wole  Soyinka  has said he will  not vote for  either of the two  major  presidential candidates because he thinks there is need for fresh  faces  for the election of the Nigerian president. It  is an  election that both the US and Britain  have  interfered  in  with impunity. As if  Nigeria is in their  backyard  or  an  estate  that  they  and the EU recently  purchased  to teach  the citizens how  to behave in a democracy.

    Yet  both the EU  and Britain  are involved in the Brexit debacle  that resulted in the EU president  Jean Claude  Juncker calling for  a place in hell  for  Brexiteers  who  had  no  plan  but won the Brexit  referendum  anyway. In similar  manner the  US just  had its  mid term elections in which  the Democrats won a House of Representatives  majority    and have initiated  investigations  of the  life  and  businesses  of the US President Donald Trump  who has branded their  legitimate  democratic    inquiry  a  ‘presidential  harassment ‘.  In  Venezuela  which  is really America’s  backyard like Mexico, with which Trump  is playing aggressive American  soccer on Immigration,  there  are two presidents arising from  their last  election in which  the new opposition  president  Juain  Guaido a  former Speaker  claims power  because  he  claimed  the incumbent  Nicolas Maduro  rigged the election,  and dissolved parliament. So  the  former speaker claims he is next in line after dismissing the incumbent  for violating the constitution. These  then  are  the ingredients of our pot pourri  for  analysis  today  in the context  of  our  headline. Quite  a juicy  one  I  assure  you.

    We  start  with  Wole  Soyinka’s reported refusal  to participate in the  2019  electoral process  because of  his    claimed obsolescence of  the two  candidates on offer on February  16.  That really  is his choice but since he is who  he is,  he is bound to influence  some or  many  Nigerians into sheer  voter  apathy. That is  unfortunate  and  again  may  be because his kinsman  from Abeokuta,  the  politically  ubiquitous    former head of state Olusegun  Obasanjo is  feverishly  campaigning for  one of the candidates Atiku  Abubakar.  And there  is no love lost  between the two  Yoruba national leaders who  have not seen eye to eye  since the Professor  successfully  supplanted the state  backed effort of the soldier  turned  statesman to be UN Secretary  General, some years  back.

    All  the same Nigerians should not be dissuaded  from political  participation at all levels of  our elections  as that is the way of democracy in  ensuring  that    the  choice of the people is truly,  the  choice  of  God.  People  should be encouraged to cast  their votes  and  vigilantly  too ,  so  that there  is  no rigged election.   That  is  a surer  way  to  ensure    that there is  no need  again,  for another  gun man  like the one  at the broadcasting  house  in Ibadan after  the 1962  elections  rigging in the  west  and  the ensuing  national  malaise,  from  which we have not recovered  as  a nation.

    On  the  interference  in our elections so  brazenly carried out by our  self  appointed  sovereign uncle  nations and patrons,  we urge them to  remove the planks  in their eyes  before  removing the specks in  ours. The  EU  thinks  of  Russia’s  Putin  for  now as the devil  incarnate  for  trying to  hack  elections in EU nations in order to  control  and derail  their  democracy.  The  American opposition  is  busy  trying to destroy  the legitimacy  of  the election  and presidency of the Trump  Administration  by    insisting that  Russia  hacked  the 2016 US  presidential  election    that brought  Trump  into  office. If  both the Americans and  the Europeans  found election interference  so  offensive  and repugnant for their democracy  why did they  think  Nigerians  will  not have the same feeling  of  distaste  for their  insulting  and nasty meddling in our  elections  as a sovereign nation like them?  Really they  should be advised  that those  who live in  glass houses in election  matters should  not throw stones. Or  simply  be told that on elections, charity  should begin at home.

    On  Brexit  it is interesting that EU President  literally  sent brexit  campaigners  to  hell  because  they had  no  plan  of execution. Which  is eternal  condemnation  for present  posture on politics  with  regard  to  asking  Britain  to leave the  known for the unknown without a plan  to  see it  through. The curse  should also  be applicable  to  the  Labour  Party  which sought to create a snap  election to get power from  the planlessness in the Brexit execution. This  is  not to say that satanic  curses  should be the price  of  national  or diplomatic  discourse  as  is  the vogue  now in  European  politics. But  it certainly  shows that  liberal democracy  needs  to put a break  on the ever  ready  way it  accepts dissent without due diligence  on new ideas  or    differing opinions.  Let  us  pray  that this cursing  of those with  differing ideas  will  not become the language  of global  democracy  which  for now is  championed by both  the Europeans  and the Americans.  It  is certainly  not  a  step  in the right  direction.  With  regard to  African  diplomacy  and politics  I  think  we passed  that cursing stage a long time  ago  and the dog  cannot,  hopefully, return  to its vomit.

    In  Donald  Trump’s State  of  the Nation Address  this week  he spoke  eloquently  of his  achievements  but  he didn’t  seem  to realize  that  the leverage  of  power  in American  politics have changed against  him  after the November  terms elections that gave majority to Democrats  in the House  of  Representatives.  He cajoled  the women  when  he lauded their gain in new employment under  his administration  and the largest  representation  in Congress  ever. These  women  who  see Trump  as a misogynist applauded  hesitantly  and later uproariously,  but  the following day  the Democrats  led by the same women,  created many investigative committees  to  probe both  the private  and public life of  the US  president. And  he  called  that  Presidential Harassment.  A great  understatement  when  you  recall  how  Trump had  bragged on  making deals  with the Democrats before the House, now  dominated  by them,  convened. He  even tried to appease them in his State of  the nation Address  by saying that investigations will not  bring peace  or  stop the national  divide.  Now  he faces the reality  of loss of power  in the house  and balancing that with  his gains  in the senate.  Trump  will  have  to    learn fast    and hard,  to live with  his new  found  power constrainers and competitors  in the US  Congress. It  is certainly  pay  back time for  an  election  that his  opponents  claimed the Russia  gave him on a platter of  gold.

    The  problem  now is that his  opponents have the power  to skin him literally  alive  for  not only his election  but  with  a great  vengeance  for  his  two  years  of braggadocio and petulance  of office,  before  his party lost  power in the US House  of  Representatives.  That  again  is the power  of elections    and the  way  of  democracies.  Once  again  long live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Vision, leadership  and  the  rule of  law

    The presidential candidate of the PDP, Alhaji  Abubakar Atiku delivered a lecture in Lagos  at the  prestigious Island Club, Nigeria’s premier social club this week. The topic of the lecture was ‘ My  Vision  To  Get Nigeria  Working Again.’ It  was a topic that he said  he chose himself for  the 2019  Quaterly  Business Luncheon  of the Club . Given  that    the presidential  election is this  month and he is the main  alternative to  choose against  the incumbent president  in the 2019  presidential  election one cannot blame him  for  striking  whilst  the iron is hot  against  the government of his main  rival. He did that I grudgingly concede rather  eloquently  even  as I am  very  much  at odds  with his prescriptions for making Nigeria  work  again.

    My  main  grouse with the Turaki  Adamawa  as his title in his state  is,  is  that  he cannot  claim  ignorance  or  culpability in the  way  Nigeria came to be  the way  he  found it and which  gave way  to his vision  to mend it. Just    as  the topic  clearly  stated,  My  vision  to get Nigeria working  again. This, to  me    is a  vision  that  can be described  as getting  wise after an  event or  locking the stable gates after  the horses  have bolted.  Yet  in a democracy the choice of a leader is before  the electorate regardless of any  analysis including this, and I wish  the PDP candidate  the  best  of luck, like the president wished all governorship  candidates in Imo  state in his campaign there  this  week.

    I  also  wish  to congratulate the PDP presidential  candidate for the entourage and enthusiastic  crowd  that  followed him to Island  Club at Onikan Lagos. The entourage included  his present Godfather and past and present Nemesis former  President Olusegun  Obasanjo, under whom  he served  as  Vice President of Nigeria. The entourage included some  past  governors  as well as the Lagos state PDP  candidate Jimi  Agbaje  and the Senate  President Dr Bukola Saraki.  Indeed  Obasanjo’s speech in showing why  he has both slandered  Atiku in the past  and is  now  glorifying and magnifying him as the solution to Nigeria’s  economic  and leadership  problems today,  overshadowed the candidate’s  plan  as  articulated to make Nigeria  work  again. In  a way,  Obasanjo’s  long apologia  on slandering  Atiku  on many  occasions  and  forgiving him  as  the

    bible preached forgiveness, gave some insight  on  why Nigeria could not have worked  till the two  came  together  for this election. Obasanjo  invoked the name of  Jesus  who  he said was not  perfect on  earth.

    Yet  Nigeria  is a secular state of many religions especially  Christianity and Islam  and he need  not  invoke  the might of  one or either  of the two, to score  a political  point or to  rationalize a  past leadership  judgement  or  appreciation decision  or  mistake. Definitely the next presidential  election in  February  will  determine  clearly  how  much  of an impetus or albatross  the  involvement  of  Obasanjo in the  Atiku  campaign  has been  in  resolving  Nigeria’s    multifarious  problems. We shall  surely  see  from  the election results  how  much better or worse  the Nigerian  state and economy  will  be  because  of  this endorsement  that  Atiku  is deeming  his political  saving  grace and  democracy  elixir  to  lead  Nigeria as an executive  president.

    Good  enough the choice  is before the Nigerian  electorate  who have  a long  memory  and  are  not  afflicted  by any  selective amnesia  in spite  of the level  of  poverty, want and  insecurity they  have seen at  the hands of successive Nigerian leaders, both civilian  and military.

    Aside  from the  Obasanjo  sermon on  Atiku rediscovery  and metamorphosis into acceptability,  the PDP  candidate  raised  an issue  that is now  shaping  the way  and manner the 2019 election is evolving even  with  the dates for the presidential  and state elections clearly  known. INEC  has  even affirmed that there  can be no  postponement,  which  was an  extravagant statement that is uncalled for. At  his lecture  the PDP candidate  noted  that  –  our democracy  is in peril, and  he cited the suspension  of  the CJN and his replacement by  the president. He  said ‘ the action of

    unilaterally  suspending  the CJN  by  President  Buhari  is unconstitutional.  The  constitution provides laid  down rules for

    the suspension of the CJN  and this has not been followed ‘He  then went on to conclude that  a key  part of his vision for  Nigeria is respect  for the rule of law, ‘  because  without it we can have no society.’

    Definitely  I agree on his  vision and conclusion  that without  the rule of  law  there  will indeed  be no  society, which  clearly is a descent  to  anarchy. That is  even  a situation  to be avoided on the eve  of an election as  important as the one at  our  doorsteps right  now this month. But  the CJN  saga  has put the nation at the edge of a cliff in terms  of expectations, anger  and resentment at the happenings in our third arm  of  government, the  judiciary  and the legal  profession. I once here recently wrote  that the law is on trial  on this CJN matter. I now  say categorically that it is the Nigerian  state  that is on trial  for the simple reason  that there is a threat to  the Nigerian  state and security. Just  look  at  the legal  wranglings and precedents as  well as the positions of the legal  institutions both at the bench  and bar  and you  see that legal  interpretations  have to be made  transparently,  judiciously and timeously  for the tension and pressure on the political   system to  cool  down so that we can  have a smooth, safe  and fair election. Already  the NSA  reportedly told a meeting of State governors that a group of people including politicians are planning violence and mayhem during and after the  elections  and the security agencies say they are ready  and we pray  they  protect  the electoral process  this year in Nigeria successfully.

    Obviously  corruption is  at  the heart of the CJN debacle and the judiciary  and the legal  profession should find a way out  of the opprobrium  in their front  houses, which  in this case is their image or reputation. An  adage says if the fish  is rotten  it  starts from  the head. That is clearly  the case in the CJN matter.

    To me the Code of Conduct  Tribunal –CCT –  has  been  the redeeming grace that the presidency  has used  as its authority to suspend  the CJN who  in the face of clear infractions on assets declaration against the law, was  using  his position and wealth to make an  ass of the law by stalling all cases against his arraignment. He  could have gone on up to the Supreme  Court  with this frivolous  obstacles  and would  he then  have presided over  his own  case? Where was  the NJC in  all  this ?Could  the members not  have taken action or raised a point of order on the publicly  displayed and court cited offences of their leader who as a Supreme Court judge is simply  a primus inter pares and not superior to other judges  at the Supreme  Court?.

    Similarly,  the NBA called for an  industrial  action that  failed because both bar  and bench are  ashamed  and aghast at the revelations and defence  antics of the leader of the judiciary. The NBA  says  it is defending  the constitution  yet  the  corruption of the CJN is lost  in plain  sight to  it. A  legal  institution  of eminent  SANs  and lawyers  should  not  hunt with the hunter  and run with  the hunted .This  is a recipe  for  confusion  and  anarchy.

    How  does this augur  well  for a peaceful and fair  election and for post  election litigations for complaints  and electoral malpractices?. My  take is that the omens are bad and a reconsideration  of the timing of the election which INEC  says is not  is not  in sight,  may  be a    relief  or panacea  for now.  At  least  in the short run.  Once again  long  live the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

  • NeoColonialism, militarisation, and democracy

    In  global  diplomacy this week France  and Italy, staunch  allies in the EU  and  NATO  were  at each  other’s throat  over migration, with the Italians blaming  French Neocolonialism  for  the death of Africans fleeing   through  the Mediterranean  into  Europe.  In   Nigeria,  former  President Olusegun Obasanjo  continued his assault  on the  reelection bid  of  President Muhammadu  Buhari. Just  as   the   government  continues  with the prosecution of the nation’s CJN  over  false  declaration  of assets   after  brushing aside  legal  irritants and constraints in the law courts  to derail  the governments’  resolve.  These  issues  have  broad historical, economic  and ethical    underpinnings  that we shall  examine in all ramifications today.

    As an African and Nigerian following  global  development  and history   diligently  I was very  pleased  with the spat  between Italy  and France over  African migrants . Indeed  the two Italian  Vice PMs,  Luigi   Di  Maio,     Matteo  Salvini   in the populist  coalition in power in Italy  have not given  French  President Emmanuel  Macron  any  breathing space over the issue of migration.  One of them Di  Maio said  if  France  had decolonized  as it should Africans will   be in Africa  and not be lying dead in the Mediterranean.  Which  is a real  home truth not only   for  Macron’s  France  but  also to Theresa  May’s    Brexit   ridden  Britain  which  colonized  Nigeria.  Indeed I intend  to    show  that British  decolonisation  ineptitude  and  shoddy  hand over of power to  Nigerians is as blamable  for Nigeria’s  present  political  woes.  Just  like the Italians  are blaming France for  Africans  fleeing poverty  and dying  on  the Mediterranean  sea.  Indeed the fact  that  the major  and persistent   critic of the re election of  our    president  was once a military   and civilian president,  just like the president he is  attacking for ineptitude,  shows  clearly  how militarised  our  democracy  has become  since Independence  in 1960 . Again,  that too   is   obvious   in  the way and manner   that  the British not  only  decolonized  poorly    al  but  also    entrenched,  deliberately   an insidious and precarious Neocolonialism  in  Nigeria .

    In  the  case of the  CJN trial  and the efforts  made  by the CJN’s  lawyers  to stop  the trial, it is clear  that  the accused  has  something to hide. Otherwise  why  can  he not  see  that he cannot be a judge  in his own case?  The  CJN cannot be a referee  and  a player  at  the same time as that is against  the principle of natural  justice.  Surely  a CJN  should   know  that  as well as what  to  do to  avoid further  opprobrium on this  matter. QED

    We  go  back  to the condemnation of France   by Italy   for the global  migration problem  especially  with regard to  Africa.  According  to reports Matteo  Salvini    leader  of the Italian   League  said’ In  Africa some take wealth  from the continent and the people  and France  is one of them ‘.  That  is  the truth  but the fact that it is being said by  a EU  leader  makes it very  important.  France  has protested by summoning the Italian Ambassador in Paris.  But  that is like fake  news  because  France is  guilty  as charged.  In  real  fact  the French  have  always  been  in charge of  IMF,  the bank  used   by the west in giving aid to developing nations  including   African  nations.  The  last  two MDs  of  the IMF  including the present  one, Christine  Legard  were from France   and  the IMF  is on record  as ruining  the governments of  Sfrican nations including  Nigeria  by giving loans  with crippling conditionalities  which  created  failed  states like Somalia .  France still  has troops in African  nations to make them  toe its line or risk their leaders  being removed.  It  happened  in Ivory  Coast recently  and Gbagbo  is still in ICC custody even  after  being  cleared  at  the trial   in the Hague    for lack  of evidence.  It    may  be  poor  consolation  and  a  belated  one too  that an  European  nation  is blaming another for  exploiting  African  nations under  colonialism  and neo  colonialism.  But   then   the truth  has prevailed and France  must  at  least  show some  compunction or  shame   instead  of  being hypocritical  about  its  shady  past in Africa.

    Britain  too  should  share  part  of the blame with France  for exploiting  Africans  and creating the poverty leading to  African   migration to Europe through the Mediterranean. In  this case I hold  Britain responsible  for  the lopsided  democracy  it left  Nigeria with and the census  figure  that environmental,  geographic  and demographic  indices.  Nigeria’s  political and parliamentary  seats   and representation have  been based  on these census  figures  and that  has created a dangerous  tension  that gave one part of the nation an  advantage over the other.  It  has led to many  military intervention led by Northerners and has ensured  that the North has had  more leaders  at  the center  than  the   south.

    In  addition globalisation has  also  brought in democratization hand in hand  with  marketization  and  privatization. All  of which  have led to immense increase in the gap  between the rich  and the poor resulting in poverty  and  dismal  growth for  Nigria.  The  military interventions  also  created a class of supper  rich former military leaders  who  were able to shed their  braided  hats  and boots   for  flowing gowns and  toga  to  take over  our  governments   and legislature as senators and MPs.  Corruption  and rigging  of elections  have  become our  political  culture.  That explains  why  the loudest  critic  of the system  of politics  we  run  is also  the   biggest  beneficiary  and is  never  satisfied  with  the status  quo.  Yet  in furtherance of  the   ruling clique  motto  of  espirit de  corps   or   dog   does  not eat   dog,  the mighty  critic  still  attended a meeting of former Heads of  States  and still  shook  hands  with the man he said  was  sick in mind  and spirit.  At  least  he could  have stayed  away  and avoided  contamination  with those  he has assigned to hell for leading the  nation astray and into  perdition  so eloquently  in his   last  two salvos  against  this same government  that hosted him in Abuja.  But  then  such  is the nature of  our democracy bequeathed  to us  by  the  British and spoon  fed  by them in supervising rigged  elections  with  international  observers whose governments  are always the first to congratulate  the successful riggers.  That  in a way  explains the glee I feel  at British embarrassment over Brexit.   A  situation where our former colonisers  do  not know  where   or   what    they  want  with  the EU over Brexit   could   be  very   embarrassing and   shameful   for  those  who  operate  the Mother of  Parliaments .  Certainly  with  the benefit of hindsight  the British  should  know in their Brexit  overdose  and inebriation ,  that those who  sow the wind of colonialism must  reap  its whirlwind.  Surely   the chicken  has come home to roost  for  British  colonialism. Just  like the Italians  told  the French  on the issue of African  migrants fleeing poverty  and dying  in the Mediterranean.  Once  again, long live the Federal  Republic of  Nigeria.

  • Democracy, checks and balances

    I had a very brief but interesting discussion recently with Nigerian veteran legal luminary  Alhaji  Femi  Okunnu  in which  I disagreed with his observation that the  Prime Minister in a Parliamentary democracy is more powerful than  the President in a presidential  system of government.  We  could not conclude the discussion   but events in the world at  large  this week  seem  to  focus on our points  of divergence in that discussion and that  is  what  I want  to dilate on today   as  that  really influenced the choice  of  today’s topic.  Let  me first  reel  out the events before I  treat  them  individually. The  firsts  is  the ding dong battle in the British Parliament   this week  that  bloodied  the nose of the British  PM Theresa May  but  failed  to deliver the ultimate  knock  out  blow to throw  her out of office  and out   of  power.  The second  is the arraignment  of  Nigeria’s  CJN   for  malpractices  on declaration of assets by the government in a move that is not only alarming but disturbing on the eve of the 2019  elections in which   the judiciary  headed by the CJN    is expected  to be the final  arbiter on  post  election petitions and grievances.

    The third  is the clever  strategy of US House  of  Representative Speaker Nancy  Pelosi  not  to  invite US President Donald Trump  to  the  State of the  Union Address    on the grounds  of security  arising from  the US President’s  action of closing down  government unless  and until  the House  of  Representatives   allows    him  to have funds  to build  a border  wall  against  Mexico  on security  grounds. Really    I  find the three  topics  very  appetizing  for  some good  analysis.

    We  go back  to the turbulent scene  this week on Brexit  at  the British Parliament.  The  first  vote on the PM Brexit  deal  as proposed was a crushing defeat  for the PM the worst  for any government in ages. But  it was a deal that was always like a still  born  baby or a casualty  brought in dead   for   the British PM and the margin of loss over 200 votes reflected  the dismal  prospects  for her deal.  She  was however  not the only  casualty. The second  was the Opposition leader Jeremy  Corbyn who  gloated over  the deal  defeat  and called for  a vote  of confidence  which  also  predictably  failed  for the  simple reason   that  MPs, both  for  or against  the deal,  would  rather  fall  on their swords  than  see Jeremy  Corbyn  emerge  as the British  PM  at  this point  in time, Brexit  or no Brexit. In  addition Corbyn   had underestimated   the fear of MPs   at  this point in time to go  back for  a renewal of their mandates from hostile Constituents pissed   off with politicians handling of  the last  referendum that gave birth to Brexit. Effectively  then MPs  on both sides of  the divide on the PM’s deal  buried the hatchet   and dealt  Corbyn’s No  Confidence  vote  another defeat albeit  with a much lower margin   than  the PM’s   deal  death.

    The  lesson  here to me is that  in a Parliamentary  democracy, MPs  run  the show to show  that  Parliament  is supreme   and  can  intimidate  both  the cabinet  and opposition to  submission if the need  arose as we saw   this  week.  That to me makes accountability and transparency more  readily and speedily  available in the open debate and votes   as  displayed at the British  Parliament  over Brexit  recently.

    We  go   next  to the tango  between two  arms of Nigeria’s presidential  system  of government, namely  the executive and the judiciary  over  the   arraignment  of the  CJN  at  the Code of  Conduct  Tribunal. On  the surface  this would look  as  a political ploy  by the government to silence or intimidate  the judiciary.  But  are  judicial  officers  above the law?  My  answer  is no  and as the law says, those who come to equity must  come with  clean hands. Anyway  the saying is  also  apt  and relevant  here  that Caesar’s  wife must  be  above reproach  and Caesar’s  wife  is  the arraigned CJN   whose  defence  largely  rests on ignorance  or timing of the law. Yet  as a legal  juggernaut he should   know   that ignorance of the law is no excuse,  especially  in the inner  recesses of our temple of justice where he presides.

    It  is pertinent  to recall  here   that the executive took on the  legislature when  the Senate President was arraigned before  the same tribunal  for  similar  charges connected with declaration of assets. The Senate  President was eventually  cleared at the Supreme  Court.  Was that a case of those in glass  houses throwing stones when  they should  not.? Anyway  the  senate  president  survived  the   ordeal  and lived  to fight another  day. It  is now  the turn  of the CJN to fend  for  himself with  his  well known  legal  erudition which  got him  to the pinnacle  of  his profession which  also  preaches very  firmly that nobody  is above the law.  This  trial  promises  to be the greatest  rumble in the jungle in our temple of  justice that  will  definitely keep  our political  system on tenterhooks  as we face the all important 2019 elections.  Nothing  demonstrates  the challenges  of  our presidential  system  and its delicate  balance of power  more  than  the trial  of  the CJN   at  the CCT. It    is like the law itself   is   on trial in  Nigeria    in  a bid to establish  the rule of law in our fledgling democracy. It   certainly  is a situation that  beggars   description in terms of ethics and morality  which  is the basis of the law  in any society, including  Nigeria.

    We  end  up  with  the Nancy  Pelosi strategy  to steal  the thunder of Donald Trump  over the State of  THE Union Address which  any   US  president  looks  forward to in delivering before  a Joint  Congress. Pelosi who  has purview in inviting the president has cheekily  suggested the president could do it from the White  House  because  staff  to provide security  for the  event  have not been paid. Which  is like Nancy  Pelosi  telling the American  President – Play  me foul –  on  security –  and I play  you  tricky, and that  is a quotation from the book Kidnapped  by R L Stevenson  that I read in secondary  school. In  plain  terms the House Speaker is telling the US President  that he does not have a monopoly of aggressive  and disruptive  political  actions in his quest  to  keep  his campaign promises  and that what is good  for the goose  can  be good for the gander. Which  is vintage political  tit  for  tat.  Once again  long live the Federal  Republic of  Nigeria.

  • Pragmatism, security and politics

    Our president gave a no holds barred interview on security and the irrelevance of state of origin in the appointment of service chiefs this week that showed his huge experience as a former military general but is very likely to create serious political controversy on constitutionalism. The president bluntly stated that loyalty not state of origin is the crucial issue in the appointment of service chiefs and he said this despite the fact 14  out  of the nation’s 17  security chiefs appointed by him are headed by Northerners. He admitted there is a quota system  in the constitution  but he said – ‘if you are a field operative you have to be   very careful especially in the military  where  I served for 20  years. ‘That  on the surface may  sound illegal  by the strictures of the Nigerian  constitution  but  that is what  is called  political  pragmatism or reality.  Which  simply means that security   in stark   terms  transcends quota  system and state  of  origin for  the   naughty  reason  that life  has no duplicate  and second chance  is a rarity in the volatile world   of  state  security  and political stability.  Legal  purists  may  be scratching their head in dismay or disbelief on the issue but  that is what we have to ponder  over to day.

    We  do  this analysis today  with a form  of comparative politics on issues from Nigeria’s presidential  campaign, the shut  down  of government in the US   over  the building of a wall  across  the border with Mexico  and the election of a law  and order candidate in Brazil  who  has just  been sworn  into  office   and who  valued security more  than human rights and won on that platform.

    In  Nigeria, the de facto Chairman  of the APC Presidential Reelection  Campaign Jagaba Bolaji  Ahmed Tinubu reportedly said that the 2019 presidential election boiled down to the character  of the two presidential  candidates   which  he said is quite  different. With  Buhari, he said if you left him in a room with a naira you  will  find your  naira intact on your return. According to Jagaban,’ with  Atiku, things are  more nuanced. This shows he has no vision for the nation   except the naked pursuit of power  for the naked  use  of that power.’  Which  simply  means that Atiku is not  honest  and should not  be trusted  with power.  This too  vintage  is political  pragmatism  stemming from politics    and    electioneering.  But  it   has its    important   implication  which  is that a crooked  person should  not  be trusted with power   and should not  be voted  for in any political  competition for power as in our 2019 presidential  election.  Of  course  I expect  the   PDP  to  counter this shrewd observation of the Jagaba but that  will  be difficult in   this   Nigeria  where  their  candidate is a veteran politician and a former Vice President for two  terms under a President   who   has,  on    available   records  in   published  works,  tarnished   the  PDP  presidential   candidate’s    reputation and  credibility  as his  Vice  President before  endorsing him  for the 2019 presidential  election.

    What  Jagaba  has done to  the PDP  candidate  and his credibility  is similar  to what  Donald  Trump  has done to CNN and other  anti-Trump  media like New  York Times by  calling them  fake news.   The  CNN   has been  involved  in a fight  to finish  with the American  president on that characterization and I expect   the  PDP  to  be looking   for similar  ammunition to  respond  to  the atomic  bomb  that the Jagaba  has detonated  on the character of their presidential  candidate.

    In   the  US, the American  President  Donald  Trump   has turned an  election promise  to protect America’s  border with Mexico over drugs  and crime into  a security  emergency  issue. He  unusually  addressed  the American  people  on  TV  to  say that the new  majority  the Democrats have in the Mid Term  elections in November 2018  is trying  to frustrate his effort to  protect America’s  borders  as promised  since the new Speaker  Nancy   Pelosi  bluntly said   he cannot build the wall.  But  Trump  is more pragmatic than Pelosi  on the issue in that he is ready to make a deal or a barter on priorities  with  the Democrats  to  build the wall. His threat  to use emergency  powers  cannot be taken lightly  especially when he turns the issue into  a security  matter  to protect Americas  borders   and  American lives,   which  is part of his oath  of  office   and   responsibility as the  President of the US.  So  in refusing  to open  government without funding for his wall  and turning the issue into an emergency security  situation,  Trump  may  be turning nasty  but he is still  a good example of credibility   and   pragmatism  in terms of fulfilling election  promises. It  is up to the Democrats to  make the best of a bad  situation and make a deal or face a credibility  crisis that they  do  not really know what they  want.  Again  the challenge  is in trying to match  pragmatism   with  election  promises  and  mandates   and   with  some  icing   of  flexibility and reality. In  my view  the ball is in the court  of the Democrats in opening up  the government  closed in seeming blackmail  by the US President Trump  for now.

    We  end up with Brazil, the world’s fourth  largest  democracy  which in October 2018  elected   a Trump like president in Jair Bolsonaro who  is against most things that liberal  governments like that of the Obama presidency promoted and championed like gay  rights and sexual equality. Bolsonaro won against  all  odds   while    the most  popular socialist  president in Brazil’s  history   Lula da Silva  was in jail   for corruption and could not  even contest  the  presidential election because of his jail term  and his surrogate   was well  beaten   by  new comer  and controversial  Bolsonaro. This was in a Brazil  that   the jailed   Lula  at the height of  his popularity brought both  the Olympics Games  and the  FIFA  World  Cup   given  the well  known  love of  Brazilians for  good  football  and samba.  But  Brazilians took  to the streets at  both events to protest against  both the looting of Brazilian sports administrators  and politicians and the  end  product was the jailing of Lula and the impeachment of his successor. So  in the end it is not only leaders  like Buhari   on  quota  system  and  security, or  Tinubu on integrity and  election  or Trump  on border  walls  and security, who  can  be pragmatic   on crucial   issues within the rule of  law.  Electorates  too  can  be quite  pragmatic  like they  did  in Brazil  where  they  picked  a president,   Jair    Bolsonaro, sworn in recently who  longed  and  campaigned for the law  and order of military rule to contain corruption  and violence  rampant  in Brazil’s  tortured  democracy  and  won   the election  against   all odds.  Once again  long  live,  the Federal  Republic  of Nigeria.

  • Election campaigns, issues and personalities

    2019  is  an election year in Nigeria  and lest I forget, I wish  my numerous readers a happy new year, just  as  I proceed to treat the topic of the day. Naturally  and ideologically elections breathe fresh  air into any political  system in that it is a process   of   assessment  and reappraisal of leadership with a view  to moving forward on   beneficial  programmes or reviewing  strategies  with a view  to   making  necessary  reforms or adjustments. Elections when  free  and fair  reward   politicians for good  performance and punish  them for poor  performance  in terms of victory  or  failure  at such  elections.  That  is why expectations are high in the electorate at  election time. The  parties out of power hope to  get  it back at  election time. While the party in power does  all  it can  to retain that power.  Such  is the situation in Nigeria in  2019  and that  is what we want  to take  a  look  at  for  now.

    Neverthless it    is necessary  to point out that elections should  take place in secure environments  and not all  parts of Nigeria can claim to be in that mold or   condition   for  now. The North  East  is not a safe place as  Boko  Haram  has  waxed  stronger  and  that is  obvious in two  developments this week. The  Chief of Army Staff  was quoted as saying that Boko  Haram  is not better  armed   than   the Nigerian  Army   as alleged in  some quarters.  The  second  was the news of  the  visit  of the Minister  of  Defence  to  the North  East  and  Chad where  he  was briefed   by  commanders about the dire  situation on the ground,  which he promised to convey to the Commander In Chief  who is the Nigerian President.  Again  there is the volatile   and recurring  issue of the Herdsmen  and Farmers clashes over cattle  grazing and the destruction of farmlands  in many parts of the nation. These  are burning security issues  that need containment especially  in an election year like this 2019. If  you  add  to  this the potentially explosive  issue of a threatened strike any  time soon  on the   thirty   thousand   naira   minimum   wage   by the leadership of the Nigerian Labour  Congress, you  will  see  how    maximally stressed  our political  system  will  be in  taking on  the  grim issues  of   security  and industrial  unrest,   in  an  election year like 2019.

    Today   I will  use  two states namely Lagos  and Ogun, to illustrate that personalities  and issues will play a bigger part in the 2019  elections at both the guber  and presidential levels. I  will also  show  that    in terms of    political  participation   and   mobilization, no state in Nigeria is an island on its own. And that just as the Americans are lamenting that the Russians are hacking their elections, inter  state hacking and  intervention    have become a way  of life in Nigerian politics  too. Indeed   I will  use my own  personal  experience  to illustrate some of these  observations.

    In  Lagos  state   I have seen  the lovely  campaign  slogan on l freedom ‘ for APC  governorship  candidate Jide Sanwoolu, saying that –‘ I  am a   proud  and free Lagosian, I    choose  Sawoolu’.  That  sounds strange to me because I  never  knew that  any  Lagosians in these    modern   era   are in bondage. That looked like   protesting S Africans  under apartheid  or like Herbert  Macaulay, taking on the    colonialists in pre Independence   Lagos, Nigeria.  Surely  the APC candidate  has more going for him  to sell  his candidacy  without invoking  a siege or distress  mentality where there is none.  Lagosians   are a vibrant   and  educated  lot  who  know their   rights   as  well  as where their   bread  is buttered.  APC  is popular in Lagos state  and should  not  be reactive in its  campaign  posturing or   else it would  be doing the dirty  job  of the opposition by making a mountain out of a mole hill.

    In  Ogun  State  the  incumbent  governor  has  pledged  to  campaign  for the reelection of the APC presidential  candidate President  Muhammadu  Buhari  but  has asked  his supporters  not  to support the APC official governorship  candidate. The  governor  has asked  his supporters  in a state  in which  observers  say  he  calls  the shots  effectively   to support  a candidate  from another   party. According to  reports, the governor’s candidate   in another   party  laid claim to the achievements  of the incumbent  governor  when  he visited  the State  Council of Obas  recently  where  the traditional  rulers  pledged their  support  to the Governor’s  choice.  Which  makes the APC like a house divided against  itself in Ogun  State. Yet  I  see  some order in this seeming polarization and division in the party in power in the state, especially with  regard  to the firmness in the support  for  the APC in the presidential  election.  What  would  have looked like a daunting and unique  political  contest   has  however  been diminished  by the behavior of the APC  official governorship  candidate on Channels TV recently. He  just  could not defend  his educational  credentials in a credible  manner. He  even hesitantly  said he could not discuss what  he discussed with the President on TV. His  performance on that TV appearance  has   wounded   his chances  in a state like Ogun, where  educational  integrity is revered  and where  the  Federal   Minister of Finance  also  from the state  recently  resigned over doubtful  qualification  and   eligibility  credentials.

    Let  me end with  the  issue of interference  from Lagos  that the incumbent  APC governor alleged  over the last APC  primaries in Ogun  State. I  tell  the governor  candidly  that no state  in Nigeria exists in isolation and Ogun  state is not an   exception. A  leading woman  politician once accused the Vice President, an APC  member from Ogun State,  of being responsible  for imposing a candidate  from Lagos as APC governoship candidate in Ogun State. Even  the Jagaban  and former  Governor of the State Segun Osoba  have  been similarly  accused. Today  I hold  brief  for them and clear them of such  mischievous insinuations with  my own citizenship. I am a citizen of Nigeria born and raised in Lagos educationally  and professionally.  Just   like   our Professor  VP. I  am  also a  citizen  of Ogun state  because my  parents are  from Ogun State  and  I dutifully  and truthfully  fill in Ogun  state  as my state of origin when  filling any form on any issue  or transaction, as required. Does  that make me less of a citizen  of Ogun  State? Definitely  not   and  the good governor  of Ogun state should  not lose  any sleep  over that. Or  look over his shoulders  because  his citizens born in Lagos are around. In  fact  they    have  always   surrounded   him very massively  and most  helpfully  in his   two – term    successful  administration. Once again, long live  the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • 2018: The year of the tribalism, Buhari and Trump

    Xenophobia  is the fear of   strangers  and ethnocentricism is the belief  that one’s culture  is the best.  2018,  outgoing as it is,  was   the year that  these two  concepts were  stretched  to their limit amongst  nations of the world, on the  issues  of  security  and migration. The  influx  of migrants especially  from the Middle East into Europe  tested greatly  the  concepts   of  charity and love for  your neighbor,  which  is the guiding principle  of  Europe  which  boasts  of being Christian and  historically   merciful  to those fleeing war.  Italy, the   host   of the Vatican and Roman  Catholicism, literally  closed its borders   to migrants   and elected a government that campaigned   and won  on refusing  to  allow  access to migrants facing death on the Mediterranean   while   entering Europe. Italy  suddenly   realized that  Italy  is  for  Italians.  So  did Hungary, Poland, Czech  Republic and Slovakia. In  the EU   nations ,  the fear and hatred  of  migrants and strangers  reached its zenith in 2018.

    In  Nigeria, a presidential  candidate  picked an  Igbo  man to be his running mate and the entire Igbo nation in 2018  pledged  their  total  support  for the PDP  in the 2019  elections. In  similar  fashion a governor of the ruling party in Nigeria called  on  the Yoruba race to reward the  Buhari   government  with reelection  because it has given  choice positions to the Yorubas in his government that came to power in 2015. The  Vice  President backed   this up   by  asking the Yorubas  to vote  for Buhari in 2019  so as to brighten their  chances  of claiming or clinching the presidency  in 2023.

    Even  in Britain , Nigeria’s  former colonial  overseer,   the Queen , Elizabeth 11, in her Xmas  message   while extolling the benefit  of wisdom, noted that the bane of  our time,   taxing  the wise  principles of  faith, family, and friendship in a paradoxical  world of good and evil, is the emergence  of  the tribe. It  is the use of the word tribe on an issue  that Europeans  normally call Nationalism, or  Populism,  by  the   Queen  that caught  my attention in that royal speech. The  word  tribe is normally  used by the colonialists  to characterize the  different  and various  ethnic   groups  they  bandied together to  form  nation  states   in  a tension soaked existence   that  lacked trust  and  mutual  understanding  and  has led  to the political   instability  that was  the flagship  of post  independent developing nations  that  emerged from the colonial  era globally.  That  was why  the Great   Awo  was  able to  point  out that the word  Nigeria  was   ‘a mere  geographical   expression’ .  So  what  prompted  the normally benignly  quiet  British  monarch   to use  the word tribe in   a manner   deploring Nationalism  which  has reached its  peak  in   Europe   in  2018?

    It  is my view  that the confusion of Brexit,  itself  a product  of  Xenophobia,  and   doubt on how to implement it might  be a factor. But  I  think  the use of tribe to deplore resentment of strangers  inherent  in Brexit  as well  as the suffocating effect  of  US  President Donald  Trump’s  America First policy   on Europe, and reflected in the  Brexit vote,  could  have made the Queen  to  use  the  word tribe. And  that  usage,   because  of  Trump  makes  the word  tribe  perjorative   as used   by  the Queen  but  all  the same with  that same   hostile   meaning of nationalism  and fear  of strangers  in  2018, especially migrants, in the EU  and Britain.

    What  I  am  getting at  today is to  make  the choice  of   a Man  of the Year 2018   and from  my  musings  so  far   I think  it is clear  where  I am  heading.  Since  the Man  of the Year  according to Time Magazine’s   globally   accepted   benchmark   is someone who  has dominated  world events for  good  or bad,   I will  pick a global   one   and  a Nigerian  Man  of the Year and top this up with  an  Idea  that  has affected the world most, also  for good  or bad.  Consequently  my   Nigerian Man  of the year   is the Nigerian President Muhammadu  Buhari. My global  Man of the Year  is US President  Donald Trump and my  Idea of the Year  is Tribe, or  Tribalism  in Nigeria or  Nationalism in Europe as discussed  before,    as they are  both   different   sides   of the same  coin, in my  view.

    President  Muhammadu Buhari has influenced Nigeria, for good or bad  more than any living Nigerian in 2018. This  is inspite of his illness  from which he has obviously  recuperated and despite  the fake news that he  has been cloned.  As President  I hold him responsible  for the insecurity nationwide especially  in the North East  where Boko  Haram  still  holds  sway  even  though he said some time that they  have been reduced to guerrilla  tactics. Yet  Boko  Haram  still  attacks barracks with impunity  according to news  reports and the  Shehu  of Borno  corroborated this by telling the President on a visit that  the  terrorists   are still  active  and  murderous  and kidnap  citizens  in his domain at will.  The  president  must  account  for why perennial  power  supply  still  persists  inspite of the best effort  of his Minister  who  is fighting tooth and nail to redress the issue.  Also  the issue  of the clashes between  the farmers  and the herdsmen remain largely  unresolved   with  the herdsmen  and their spokesmen behaving and talking  as if they  are above the law.

    On  the good side I commend  the President  for  his equanimity in the face of provocation by  his detractors on his  mortality  and the insult  of the National Assembly when  he went to present his budget.   I  note  very  warmly his persistence  on the war  against  corruption and his unwavering        support for  his two  ant corruption czars  in the EFCC    and  the Nigerian  Police especially on the refusal  of the  Senate  to have these  two  gentlemen confirmed in their   positions.  I commend his  tolerance  and unusual  understanding  on  the criticism of his wife on his appointees  and the hijack of his government by alleged two or three members of a cabal and urge him  to act on his wife’s  observations as charity begins  at home.  He  has certainly  kept  Nigeria at  optimal  capacity  in terms of  political   stability and  food  security   and  on that note alone he deserves reelection for his accommodation  and understanding  of the  diversity  and complexity  of the Nigerian nation, which  he  should  reflect  in his choice  of Service  Chiefs if not now but certainly  in his next  dispensation after  reelection.

    The  choice  of  President  Donald  Trump  as global  Man of the  Year   was an easy  one for  me perhaps  because  I am  not an American or an American  educated Nigerian, most of who don’t  want to hear anything good  about Trump. As a student of global  politics I hold  him   in  constant focus  for many reasons. In  2018 he  changed world  politics, diplomacy in a U turn  manner  that is unbelievable. He  launched  a trade  war that single  handedly brought  globalization to  a stop as without the US there is no  free  trade or such  agreements as  the established ones in Asia  or North America.  He  had  a meeting with the N Korean  leader  and made the unification of the Koreas  a possibility. He  ordered his troops out of Syria  from where  the influx of migrants is threatening the stability  of the EU and went  to visit his troops   with  his wife at  Xmas  to boost  morale in Iraq  with  his wife. He  has boldly said  he is ready  for the Democrats  who  have more seats  in the House  of  Representatives  from the November 2016 Mid  Term  elections. He  has used twitter to fight  both opponents and allies  alike  and has made Isolationism US foreign  policy in 2018. Definitely  in 2018 American President  Donald  Trump  has done more  than  any leader to influence world events for good or bad in 2018. Once again  long live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.