The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Names, legacies and politicians

    After  the way  and manner  the legislative elections have gone  for the APC , analysts  have  written the party  off in terms of party  discipline  and some have even  concluded  that the only good thing going for the new  ruling party  in Nigeria is the good name and anti corruption reputation  of its victorious presidential candidate President Muhammadu  Buhari. Others  especially  the PDP  which  can very rightly be accused  of sour grapes in losing the incumbency and power  so massively, have gone on to  attempt  an obituary  on the loss  of control by  the man everyone knew was the architect of the APC’s  glorious victory in the 2015  elections Asiwaju  Bola Ahmed  Tinubu. I  disagree on both  scores but I nevertheless want  to take a  good look at  the worth  and value  of  names  and legacies in politics  globally  and in Nigeria in particular.

    Let  me state  that this topic came about from the news on the internet that both  Hillary  Clinton  and Jeb Bush  who are presidential aspirants in the US in the 2016 elections for the Democratic Party  and the  Republican  Party respectively, did  not use their surnames  on  the logos they launched  for their  presidential  campaigns. They used  just  their  first names  Jeb   and  Hillary.  So  in politics, or  at  least  in the US  this  time around it is not  just   a matter of what  is in a name.  As Shakespeare once said in one of his plays  – a rose called by any other name smells just as sweet.  But  that is not so in politics and that is the nitty gritty  of our discussion today.  This  is  because   Names  carry  political  weight and  luggages especially at election times  and in times  of crisis and anxiety  such  as   the  rumpus  our legislative elections  brought to the doorsteps  of the APC  on  June 9  2015.

    Definitely  the Buhari  name and its legacy  of  discipline and anti  corruption  legacy was a key selling point for the APC in its quest  for power.   Indeed  that reputation jelled in an environment pervaded by corruption , confusion and poor  security and the electorate embraced it  out of total  boredom and disenchantment  with the person and policies  of his opponent, the defeated incumbent president then. But  it  is no secret   that  somebody did the research  and came out with the Buhari brand as the joker to win the 2015  elections hands down for the APC  and I think that   person is Asiwaju  Bola  Tinubu. The  fact  that the PDP  is  making itself  merry  with his embarrassment over the legislative elections  is a measure of the havoc  that  strategy  wrought  on that great  party which was greatly humiliated by the choice of the Buhari name  and candidacy  by the APC   to  contest  and win the 2015   presidential  elections.  The  foresight of that choice  was  even attested in   a  round about way by the PDP  boss in  Lagos  state Chief  Bode  George   who literally  pronounced Asiwaju dead  politically  on the strength  of the results  of  the legislative  elections  alone.  Which  to me is sheer  wishful  thinking as  great  strategists don’t just vanish into thin air just  like that  but are like  the proverbial  cats with nine lives who  live and resurrect to fight  another day. So  really  it is the PDP  which  has profited  and reaped  a rich but dubious profit  where  it did not sow or invest  that  should  watch  its back  on the slippery path it has taken to steal legislative  leadership  from the APC.

    Again  on the US   is not  difficult  to see  why Hillary  Clinton  and  George  Bush did not use their  surnames  on their presidential  logo. This  is because  a logo is supposed  to sell  a name or brand and must  be seen in terms  of  positive  virtues that  can  achieve the objective  for which  it was created which in this case is to  win  the US  presidency. Time  will tell if the decision not  to use    their  surname  is a wise or regrettable step. This  is because  both names, Clinton and Bush, are still household names in world and US  politics and  they  still  bring nostalgia  of  good memories on the presidencies in which they  were involved. In  Clinton’s case his Vice President Al  Gore,  who  contested  against  the  43rd  president  George Bush  lost because  he kept the Clinton  name at bay  in his election bid  because  of the Mona  Lewinsky scandal.  I hope  Hillary  is not making the same mistake.

    With  regard  to Jeb Bush it is obvious  that the invasion of Iraq on the false excuse of the existence of weapons of mass destruction  is  making  him  to hide  his surname.  He  should  however be reminded that his name Jeb  is mostly  associated with or remembered  for the Florida  recount that clinched the election  for his brother against  Al  Gore.  That  to me is a more weighty load  to carry  than  the Bush  name  which in today’s  context of global  insecurity blamed on the Obama  presidency’s   dithering  on air strikes and crossed  red lines  has  a good  selling point on  global  security  which is a major issue in the 2016 presidential elections in the US.Really  I  think  it  is up  to  Jeb Bush  know  the opportunity  cost  of  his surname before  it is too  late  for  his presidential  bid in the US.

    Of  course  there  is no  way  one can discuss  a topic like this and not remember the Saraki name which is the political  brand that runs the politics  of Kwara  state and now is in charge of Nigeria’s senate as Senator Bukola  Saraki is the new Senate President from the June 9  legislative elections. His  father Dr Abubakar  Sola  Saraki too was a President of the Senate in his era. The father was a bridge  builder between  the north  and south in his time. His  politics was  also pro-North in his time.  But when after June 12  was aborted and  the presidency was zoned to the South west the  good doctor who  had all along claimed he was a Fulani then claimed eligibility to contest as a South Westerner  from somewhere in the Yoruba heartland.  Of  course  no one  took him seriously then. But  he had a first  hand taste  of the political  dexterity  of his son the new Senate  President whose  candidate defeated his father’s  choice for the governorship  of  Kwara state,  a major  political  tsunami in Kwara state in those days. Very  similar  in magnitude  and poignancy  to the legislative coup  that had APC  leadership   and   senators  stranded at a meeting with the  president while  the kingpin of Kwara politics, and very much  a member  of the party  was being elected  Senate  President  by the opposition PDP.  Which  is a classical  case  of the  end  justifying the means  but   is being regarded  most  delicately and  realistically    as a fait  accompli by  the APC for its own sanity,  stability and well  being. In  the  midst  of all  these  political  razzmatazz however one  can still  recall the timeless and golden observation of Shakespeare  again  in one of his plays  that ‘ ambition should  be made  of sterner  stuff. ‘Again, long live the Federal  Republic of  Nigeria.

  • Change, morality and leadership

    An  ordinary election to bring in a new leadership in Nigeria’s legislature after the 2015 elections has turned into an unbelievable fiasco on change management  or mismanagement and has created a nightmarish  watershed in Nigeria’s  politics as  we  know  it today. Our  June  9  2015   leadership  election  in our   hallowed  legislature has  become  a grim  reminder  of the AG Crisis  of 1962  culminating in the breaking  of legislators  heads as well  as the Speakers mace at the Western Region  House  of Assembly  then   in  Ibadan, now  in Oyo  State. At  stake then  was the struggle  for power  between AG leader Chief Obafemi  Awolowo  and his deputy  Chief S L A  Akintola, the  Premier  of the then western region who refused  to cede control  of the party  to  his leader  because the leader has gone  to the center in  Lagos  to become the Federal  Opposition leader. Incidentally the two leaders were mentioned in our new president’s Inaugural  address  as  a  source  of inspiration for  a new generation  of  Nigerians by  the president. However the  leadership elections in our senate on June 9  2015 surely  brought  back  dark  memories  of the 1962 AG Crisis  which  was  a lesson in betrayal, treachery, disloyalty and a break down of party  discipline  and solidarity. That  incident boomeranged into several  other crises leading to the civil war  and the subsequent  military  interventions  before  our return  to democracy  on May  29  1999.

    Ominously the elections of  the leaders  of the House of  Representatives  and the Senate last week was another lesson in treachery and perfidy and a slap  on the face for party  leadership and  discipline. The  only difference was that there was  no break down of law  and order in Abuja  as was the case in Ibadan and  more pointedly the  beneficiaries  of the betrayal  of their  colleagues  proceeded  to  administer with  dignified  calmness the oaths  of allegiance  on the new legislators in both  houses as required by law and decorum in the best tradition of the dictum – Done deed, Done  deal.  Nevertheless  no  one is deceived  that  the new leaders  have gotten away with  murder as  the APC  has announced that it will use due  process  to mete  out punishment to those  of its  members  who  are beneficiaries of the betrayal  of their  party  and its leadership in the nation’s  legislative  chambers in Abuja.

    The  legislative leadership elections have thrown up many issues  to be discussed  for  a  long time  in this nation. Some  of such issues will be tackled  today and some later. Surely  Nigerians are’ flabberwhelmed’  and ‘overgasted’ as Peter Pan or  Peter  Enahoro wrote in his hilarious book ‘How  to be a Nigerian’  Undoubtedly   fundamental  issues  come to the fore as to the mode, nature, character  and make up  of those we call leaders  in our present  political  dispensation. We  shall  identify  some  of these  issues for discussion today  and link  that up  with the new assignment the G7  has  given our new president who  has swiftly  congratulated  the new leadership  of the legislature  even though his party  leadership  and new legislators  were  said  to be waiting for him for  a meeting before they were knocked  out of voting and counted out of reckoning in voting in a new leadership  at our legislative  houses.  President  Muhammadu Buhari  has  been busy  of late holding meetings with leaders of the Lake  Chad  Basin Commission   nations to prepare a  bill  for the G7  on the needs of those nations in  their  fight against the terror of  Boko  Haram which  has  claimed  affinity with  ISIS  and  has qualified  for total elimination as an enemy of the G7, the  EU  and indeed that  of the civilized  world.

    But  again  let  us look at the  issues  that the controversial  legislative  elections generated. The  first is the disenfranchisement  of those legislators waiting to see the president. They lost their voting rights on two grounds.  They were  both absent and at best guilty of punctuality as they arrived later.  A  sort of closing the stable doors when the horses  of power have bolted or were  properly  harnessed  in their absence. The  opposition PDP  literally  elected the Senate  president as less than 10 APC  members were present  and the PDP  had over 40  in attendance as at voting time. Which  opens a new chapter in inter and intra party  relations in  Nigeria  especially  in our legislature  and   marks the beginning of a chain  of events   the end of which  no  one knows  as Chief  Anthony  Enahoro  once said  when he proposed Nigeria’s independence in the early  fifties.  There  is  also  the issue  of quorum which  was  used decidedly  and negatively as the 51 APC  senators never gave notice of a boycott and were not involved in any accident and their absence  should have generated concern given their number  and not good cheer and good  riddance as the Clerk  and the   Senators present seemed to have swiftly  and  readily  assumed.  A  clear  case  of mischief  and  fraudulent intent was established  by the speed and execution  of the leadership elections. As if speed  was more the essence  rather than the seriousness  of getting legislators present and available in their correct  numbers to fulfill  their legislative duties and obligations  for  which they  have been  duly elected.

    More  importantly the elections in the legislature bring out the issue  that change  cannot  be managed successfully  and that indeed change management  is an  oxymoron.  Like’ living death’, change  and  management  as  the experts have said  don’t go together. That  is what the  APC leadership  is discovering after  securing  the 2015  general  election on a platter  of change  only  to be short  changed and ambushed in the legislature by its own members. That  also  showed  the  paradox  of change  in that  it can  not  be managed but accepted  and  followed  as it can maul and  destroy  those who stand  in its decided  path to  stop  or forestall  it. The  legislative  election of June 9  has shown  that the die is cast between the APC leadership  and that of the legislature. Only  time will tell  which  the  futile   attempt  at change management  will  propel  or destroy.  Definitely  however  a new  political  culture evolved  from the last leadership elections  in our legislature and  we are taken aback  by its morality  and wait   for what it portends as it for now looks  like an ill wind that bodes  no good.

    With  regard  to the president’s  new assignment  for the G7  we wish  him  and the G7  every  success  in the new  collaboration.  We however  want to sound a note  of  warning and that is that there is no  free  lunch  nowadays especially  in the war on terrorism  and  in the return of the Cold  War between the US and  EU  on  one side  and    Russia  under  its  President  Vladmir  Putin  on  the other. Surely  the nations bordering the Sahel  need  help  to  fight Boko  Haram but  they  are more powerful in doing this  when  they  cooperate  amongst  themselves  as our president has blazed a trail in doing than in relying on foreign aid  and largesse  which  must have  a price.

    This  is because  for  now it is the US  priority  foreign  policy  to promote  same sex  marriage globally  and Ireland  a Catholic  nation  recently passed  a referendum approving same sex marriage. Indeed  in  Uganda the US cut aid  on the grounds  that the Ugandan parliament banned  same sex marriage just like Nigeria has also  done. These  are clear cultural and religious  issues that the US and  EU  nations  have said  are civil rights  which  do not make sense to  those  of us  in  this  part  of  the world. So  in  packaging the needs  of the Lake Chad Basin  nations  to the G7 our  president and  his  colleagues  from other nations  must  ask  for  the price  the  magnanimity  of the G 7 entails.  This  is to  ensure  that in fighting  and  defeating  Boko  Haram we do not cut our nose to spite our nose  and inadvertently give  more  ammunition for recruitment  and expansion  to  Boko  Haram  which has shown already  that   it has no respect for human rights or any  religious or  moral  values except  to spread its insane  form  of religion in bogus  caliphates.  Boko  Haram  must  be contained  but at no extravagant  and  prohibitive cost  to our collective sanity,   culture and religion in the entire Sahel or  indeed  the whole ECOWAS  area.

  • Buhari, globalisation and regionalism

    The  fact  that the first official  visit of Nigeria’s  new president was to neighboring Niger Republic and  Chad generated  the   topic  of today. We  will  look at this  topic in the context of the anti – corruption reputation that President  Muhammadu  Buhari brings  to his high  office and  the pointed contents  of  his Inaugural  speech that referred to our cherished ancestors as Nigerians as well as to  the  laudable  achievements of Nigeria’s  first  set  of  political  leaders  at  Independence  in 1960. These  issues hook into the ongoing corruption scandal at FIFA leading to the election and resignation  of FIFA ‘s  President  Sepp  Blatter  and  the denial  by   S Africa that  it paid a  $ 10m  bribe  to  FIFA  to  host  the 2010  World  Cup  in that nation.

    It  is important  and  necessary  to read  meanings and  draw  inferences  and  insinuations on the actions and  inactions  of new leaders as they  assume office and  claim  power especially  after  winning elections and  President   Muhammadu  Buhari who  won Nigeria’s  much  anticipated 2015  presidential  elections   cannot  be an  exception. Events  that happened  globally  and locally at his emergence  as  Nigeria’s  new  president   cast  a shadow on what to expect as his reaction to them, in  line with his perceived orientation and track  record  as well as the  expectations of  the electorate  that put  him  in power.

    It  is our contention here that the visits to  Niger and Chad showed  clearly the importance  that the new president attaches to the issue  of security and  Boko Haram  as this is the area  of  Nigeria bordering the two nations and  this  is where Boko  Haram has  been operating with  impunity  for  some time. The  fact that the Nigerian president has directed the  military to move its operational  headquarters to Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state and the nagging target of Boko Haram’s incessant bomb blasts  again showed the  concern  of the new president as well as the direction of Nigeria’s  foreign policy on regional  security in the global  fight against terrorism generally and Boko  Haram in particular.

    Given  the new president’s  antecedents  and military background this must  have been a carefully  calculated,  orchestrated move  and military strategy involving  near  humiliating  albeit pragmatic  considerations. The  saying that if the mountain does not move to Muhammed, then Muhammed  must move to the mountain could very well  have been  applied for this visit and  it could not have  been an easy decision to pay  the two visits so  quickly. This  is because the Nigerian  visitor  and   president  was a general in the Nigerian army  that  of recent  made the armies  of the two neighboring  nations shake and quaver at the mere mention of its name, not to talk  of its approach in the entire Sahel  bordering the Sahara desert  or even the entire  ECOWAS  region. That  reputation of the invincibility of the Nigerian  army during his time must  have weighed heavily  on the mind of the Nigerian president as  he contemplated going to Chad  and  Niger for help on Boko  Haram but  he swallowed his pride,  ate the humble pie and allowed  regionalism  to overshadow  nationalism in  the pursuit  of both national  and regional  security.  That  surely  is a step in the right  direction.

    While  one  may  describe  the visit as a pragmatic  and realistic  approach one  should  also look at the way the same president used nationalism to garner  support  for his crusade against  the many  ills he must  confront  successfully and as soon  as possible if he is not to lose his honeymoon with Nigerians in the shortest possible time. While  acknowledging that he knew where  the shoe pinched Nigerians  in his Inaugural  speech especially  on lack  of electricity, fuel  scarcity, youth  unemployment, and insecurity, the president reminded  Nigerians that they were  offsprings of great rulers who ruled empires that the Europeans carved out into the present African  nations. He  recalled  our great leaders at Independence and literally  challenged that if those leaders  could lead that well  in their time there is no reason why Nigerians should lose  confidence that all will be well  during his tenure. To  me that is using our history and pedigree positively to galvanise Nigerians into a type of positive nationalism that Nigeria as a nation expects every  Nigerian  to  do  his duty.  That   again to me is the rationale for his quoting Shakespeare’s  Julius Caesar  that there  is a tide  in the affairs of men. To that I add another Shakespearean injunction  this time  from  Henry  the  Fifth  on the eve  of the Battle  at  Agincourt where the English  troops faced overwhelming odds as they were outnumbered  by the French  but yet were able  to achieve  a famous and historical  victory. Henry  the Fifth rallied  his troops by saying that  ‘when  the blast  of war blows  in our ears then  imitate  the action  of the tiger’. He  urged his troops  on by saying –‘Now  attest that those whom  ye called  fathers did  beget you’.  ‘Be copy  now  to men of lesser blood  and teach them  how  to war.‘  What  I am saying in  essence  is that Buhari’s Inaugural speech  was a call to arms for all Nigerians to play their part in helping him  to  confront the cancers of unemployment, power failure and fuel scarcity by playing their part as bona fide and well bred Nigerians with an illustrious past  and  history –just  like  Henry the fifth did and rallied  his troops to victory even when vastly  outnumbered  by the French  army at the Battle of  Agincourt  ages  ago.

    However  in  the regionalism or  regional diplomacy   that the new Nigerian  president has embarked on,  he must  be prepared for  meeting  a new  French interest different from the one that the English defeated at  Agincourt. In  fact the scenario is different  nowadays  in the way  the British and the French are reacting  to the Boko  Haram terror  in our midst or terrorism in  Africa  generally. While  France has been active militarily  in Africa  driving out   the Tuaregs  and saving the sovereignty  of  Mali  and  having military bases in Chad and Niger,  the  British  have  been luke warm in helping Nigeria on  Boko  Haram. In  fact  the rise of negative nationalism and xenophobia  in Europe  has rubbed  off on Britain and that explains why David  Cameron had to stay at home to campaign and that has paid off  in the victory of the Tories in the May general  elections in Britain. The  brutal truth  however  is that  France  has stood  by its former  colonies in providing military support against Islamist  terrorism  generally in  Africa while Britain  has  diplomatically  looked  the other way because  it feared a political  backlash  at  home where it is crippled  by the policy of multiculturalism which  does  not allow its leaders to  play a leading role as before in world  politics today. Which, considering Britain’s  diplomatic  and  military  pedigree,  is a  great shame  indeed.

    Lastly the eventual  resignation of FIFA’s President  Sepp  Blatter after his earlier  controversial election as  Fifa’s  president exemplify  the  inherent nature and  qualities  of today’s  topic. President  Buhari has a no nonsense, zero tolerance  reputation  for corruption  and  Nigeria is a member nation  of FIFA, which  is a global  organization enjoying the goodwill of soccer which is the most popular sport seen all over the world,  thanks  to the emergence  of   globalization and  the breakdown  of trade and national barriers  through communication  and  information technology. But  Fifa  under Blatter presents a unique  case of using multiple and organized nationalism in one  body to  thwart  the efforts of those involved in the global  effort to eradicate  the cancer  of  corruption  in society. At  FIFA  according  to the US  investigators officials take bribes  to enable FIFA stage  its  competitions in some nations. If  that is the case that should stop. The  fact  that FIFA  under Blatter has  done a lot for sports  development in African  and Asian  member  nations does  not make corruption  right at  Fifa. Indeed  it turns FIFA  into  a type of modern day  robber baron or Robin  Hood. Thievery or  robbing the rich to pay the poor has never been a sustainable  moral  platform  in any age  or time. It  is  certainly in order to suspect  the British  or the Americans of sour grapes in losing their World  Cup  hosting bids to Russia  and  Quatar and hoping  to use charges  of  corruption against FIFA  under Blatter to have them  back. That  too is a  form of corruption that should  be examined and condemned if found to be so. That however  does not make it right for Asian and African  nations to turn  a blind  eye  to  charges of corruption in Fifa  under  Blatter  because  of his official  magnanimity and largesse  to  the  soccer  federations  in Asia  and  Africa.

    Certainly  two  wrongs do not make a  right and the globalized  effort to contain and create zero tolerance  to corruption should be sustained and not  circumscribed because  of FIFA’s  current president’s generosity which  has feet  of clay in terms of transparency and probity. Anyway  in  Nigeria’s  case there is no need to warn  anybody as the new  president  has said that he belongs  to every  body and  belongs  nobody and his  reputation on zero tolerance on corruption has preceded him into office and  Nigeria  is a member  of FIFA.  A  word  is  surely  enough for the wise.

  • Taking a peep at the APC reform, relief and recovery tripod

    I  fulfill  a promise  I made  last week  today  to take  a look  at the tripod  of action and concept  namely Reform, Relief  and  Recovery  that  the  National  leader  of the APC Asiwaju  Bola Tinubu  reportedly  said  would be  strategy  the APC  would  adopt in tackling the challenge  of governance  on assuming power  on May  29  2015, the  official  handing  over date  of  government by  the outgoing incumbent   president  who  lost  power in the last presidential  election.  Since  I  have  no formal  or informal  briefing on this self – given assignment. I take liberty to allow my  imagination to  roam wide in hazarding  a guess on the choice   and  rationale  for   these three key  words.  Also since  I  am  a Nigerian living at home and conversant with the challenges  and problems  my fellow countrymen faced under  the last  government’s  yoke  I am  confident  my perceptions and, definitions and expectations on the concepts can  not be very much  off the mark. Especially for a writer who  has watched his nation led to the an abyss  by poor  leadership  before being rescued  miraculously  and unbelievably by the victory of the  opposition  APC at  the last  presidential  elections.

    I  will  start with the basic  definition  and usage  of  these words and link  them  with the socio – economic, cultural and political  problems associated with  them  in Nigeria  and hazard  some guesses  on  solutions  envisaged  to resolve  such  problems and move the  Nigerian state  forward  under the incoming government  of  the APC. This  really is easier said  than  done,  given  the myriad  of problems facing Nigeria and the  great   difficulty  in   setting of priorities  given  the mass  urgency of these problems because  of   the callous indifference  and  neglect  of successive Nigerian  governments   whether  civilian  or military.

    Reform  to me is a new  way of looking at problems  and  proffering solutions  in conformity  with  the best  standards in the field  or industry  or  comity of nations. Relief  is bringing urgent, relevant  and  lasting  succor to those in distress or  suffering such that they  can  move on to the next  level  of comfort  in their  lives  or calling. Recovery is  the retrieval  of  lost opportunities,  public goods, property and  services  not legally acquired  or  enjoyed  by individuals,  corporations  and entities  in any  nation or community  in this case  the   Nigerian  nation.

    In  Nigeria in recent times especially  during the Obasanjo  Regime  from 1999 till the end of the Jonathan Administration  next  Saturday May  29, the economic  reform we  have    to  our  collective detriment   have  been dictated  by the IMF  and  World  Bank  and have culminated  in the award  this week  of a Doctorate  Degree Honoris Causa  for our Coordinating  Minister  of the Economy  and Finance  Minister, Dr Mrs  Okonjo  Iweala by  the prestigious  University  of  Yale  in the US. The  timing of the award  and the present perilous  state of the  Nigerian  economy says  a lot about  the sense  of humor of the authorities  of  Yale  University with  regard  to the plight  of the average Nigerian at this point  in  time. As  at  now Nigerians  have no  electricity, no  kerosene, petrol  or  diesel, our youths are  jobless  and the state of security  of life  and property  is hazardous  and  yet a major university is giving   an  award  to the Minister  who led us to this dire economic strait. Obviously  the Minister  danced in office to the music played  by the IMF, World  Bank  and the US  Treasury  controlling both and is being rewarded for  running Nigeria aground according  to the dictates of these US institutrions. Which  are  speedy  privatization and marketization without regard for the laws to facilitate them or the sequence and pace of actualizing them. IMF conditionalities have no bail out for the poor,  the needy   or   retrenched to balance budget costs but can  never allow banks and financial institutions to fail.

    It  is  therefore necessary  to compare the state of our  economy with  the way the president of Chile has written  about true development of any  nation so that the APC  can  borrow  a leaf  from   her  educative  insight. Writing  on The  Politics  of Inclusion In The World  in 2015,  Chile’s President,  Michelle  Bachelet,  a lady  like  our Yale  Doctorate Awardee and  Finance  Minister  wrote that ‘true  development comes with sustainable  growth, inclusion ,social  cohesion,  governability   and  the broadening of democracy.  It  goes  hand  in hand with diversity, accountability and transparency. It  requires freedom but also  social  justice.  It is synonymous with caring for the environment and respecting human rights. It  needs markets  that prosper thanks to productive innovation and are  not  based  on speculation.  ‘The  Chilean  president went on about making the bridging of gender inequality a priority  to  make  women  contribute  more  productively to the economy and  to make every citizen have  access to opportunities  in the economy.  To  me the Chilean  initiative  on   true  development     is  akin  to  a working  agenda  on   Reform   and   is well  recommended  to  the incoming  APC  government  for adoption  especially as the  contents  were  so clearly  missing  in the  agenda  of the  Jonathan  Administration that  nevertheless got our Coordinating  Minister  her strange  and dubious  Yale  Award.

    On  Relief  it  is  not difficult to see what Nigerians  need  relief from. We  need  relief from having no  light or electricity in our homes and industry . We  need  hospitals that are well stocked with  drugs that  make  life bearable  and  endurable.  We  need industries that produce goods and services and employ Nigerians while observing common and basic industrial relations rules and regulations. We  need  courts  that  function as state institutions and  not at the whims  and caprices of lazy judges who adjourn arbitrarily  and seat only when they  have cases  that they have a stake in. We  need  fearless, upright  and just  judges  to dispense  justice and make  the common man have confidence  in our judiciary as the last  hope of the common Nigerian  for  justice that is not expensive in terms of time and money. These  as the Relief  part  of the APC tripod will make life more bearable  for  Nigerians so that they can devote their lives  and work  to improving the quality  of life for themselves and their  families.

    On  Recovery the  APC government should focus on Poverty  Alleviation to close  the gap  between  the rich and the poor. Former UN  Secretary  General  Perez de Cuellar  recommended that to do this the developing world should  focus development  on labor intensive goals  and projects as labor  is the major asset of the poor. The  APC  government should adopt  this under its  Recovery  arm  of  the  tripod. Infrastructural  developments, market reforms  and development   should focus on supporting labor intensive  projects  to decrease  unemployment  and increase  productivity  and  manpower  development  and  reduce  the  rampant  income inequalities  that is the bane of our present economy  A  major  way  to start  is by  cutting down drastically   the emoluments  of our law  makers  which is said  to be the  highest  in the world.

    Education  should  be made free at all levels as well as basic heath care especially prenatal ones so that infant  mortality recedes  from its alarming rate of many of our infants dying before the age of five.  Affordable  housing should  be a priority  of government such  that schools  and working places and shops are within walking  distances   or affordable transport fare.

    One  cannot  talk  of this   Recovery  without  mentioning the recovery  of stolen goods  and embezzlement in the public  service. Independent judges  should be appointed and empowered  as in the  French  legal  system  to investigate  and  prosecute  fraudulent officials and  those found guilty  should be made  to cough up their ill gotten gains into the coffers  of the state. Of  course  there  should be in built safety valves to  prevent  witch  hunting  of political  opponents and  former  adversaries but the message should be clear  that the new government has  zero  tolerance for  bribery  and corruption.

    I recommend  my   musings  on the APC  tripod to the incoming administration of the APC and  wish  the new administration a happy and peaceful  enjoyment of its hard earned victory at the last elections. Once again as we finally approach  May 29 2015 next  week, long  live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • The politics of hand over, change and continuity

    The  legitimate  complaint  of  the President Elect and the APC  that the outgoing and incumbent president is not doing enough to hand over the reins  of government before the hand over date of May 29  gave rise to the topic  of today. This  is because  inherent  in the concept of hand over is the need  for continuity in spite of the change  that had  occurred  because the incumbent had lost power given the results  of the 2015 presidential  elections. It  is proper for the outgoing and  incumbent president to hand over to  his successor properly  to avert a lacuna or vacuum  in governance and  it is apposite  for his successor  to cry foul  if the proper  thing has not   been done.

    My  assignment today then is to examine  why   the expected had not been done and to look at  the circumstances  of  foot dragging  on the matter. We  shall  look   at  comparative hand overs in recent times, in the past  and ongoing  types  of handing overs which in some cases might even amount to take overs of power either legitimately or otherwise. This is  because   even  small scale  enterprises organize  hand  overs from one boss or leader to  another quite successfully and this is the norm in the private sector and our civil service and one cannot but wonder why it is protracted and delayed till  a day  or two before a president of the largest state  in Africa is giving handing over  notes to his successor  to ensure  a smooth  transition as widely  expected both at home  in Nigeria  and abroad.

    We  shall  today look at the change of power in Britain where the Tories won a majority in parliament to change the mode of government from a coalition  government  to a single  party  majority parliamentary  government. We  shall  look  at  the situation in Burundi where  there  has  been an abortive  coup and the president has resumed office  on his return from a foreign  trip  and the lessons  to  be learnt  from the near truncation  of democracy  in that nation. We  shall  also   take  a look at  the information garnered   during the week  at the launch  of the book – Dynamics  of Change   written by Rivers State Governor  Rotimi  Amaechi  and edited by  my  friend  Dr.  Yemi  Ogunbiyi and  Chidi  Amuta.

    The  victory  of the Conservatives in Britain  is a romantic  story of political  transition of  power involving both  change  and continuity. The  Tories have  become  the ruling party because they have a parliamentary  majority  and they don’t need the coalition with the Liberals  which  they had before the 2015  elections  in Britain this May. Which  means that Mr  and Mrs David  Cameron vacated the official  residence of the British  Prime Minister, 10  Downing Street  for the period of the election  and have returned to it as their  continuous   residence as  David  Cameron’s  party has won the parliamentary  elections  with a majority  of votes in parliament allowing it to form government as a single victorious party now in power. That  to me is vintage transition and handing over of power that any  nation should  envy.  Certainly  one  cannot  compare that with  the  government in Israel formed  recently  by Prime  Minister Benjamin  Netanyahu which  took  months  to form a coalition of parties that are strange bedfellows  and worse still with a precarious majority  of one  that makes change  and continuity  an  endangered specie in day  to day governance  and political  stability in that nation.

    The  events  in Burundi   are  even more worrisome  and  could  have been tagged a  Comedy  of  Errors if not  for the thousands  of people displaced  and killed in the protest  over the desire  and plan of the Burundian President Pierre  Nkurunza to have  a third term against the constitutional  provision  which  allows him to have  only two terms. President Nkurunza  had  gone on to muscle  that nation’s Supreme  Court  to rule that his third term  was legitimate  and  he too added insult  to injury and infuriated  the protesters by pleading that  he should be allowed a third term as he vowed  not to seek  a fourth term. Obviously  he was playing politics with his people  and leading them by the nose to have power by all means and by clinging tenaciously to power. In effect  he had  and has  no intention of handing  over power  to anyone but  himself.  So  the army or a section of it thought the time for a  take  over  of power was ripe.

    But  the army again misjudged the mood of the nation and that of the African  Union which called the coup  a violation of democratic principles before a counter  coup restored power to the errant president. Really  the Burundi  president should  not be allowed to get away  with the impunity  of flouting the constitution  of his nation so brazenly as this is not good for democracy in  Burundi or any African  nation  for that matter. The  ball  is in the Court  of the African  Union  which  rightly  called  the bluff of the coup plotters to now  ensure that President Nkurunza  does  not have a third term and goes into voluntary retirement by handing over swiftly to the Vice President so  that a fresh  election can resolve the power tussle  and manipulation in  Burundi.

    On  the complaint  that the president elect raised on poor  handing over by the incumbent president one  can hazard a guess  or two  on the reasons  for the luke warm  hand  over. However the news  from the launching  of the book  Dynamics  of  Change provide  a great clue on the apparent reluctance  to hand over readily. At  the book launch APC  National  leader and now the acclaimed leader of the Yorubas Asiwaju  Bola  Ahmed  Tinubu  proudly proclaimed Governor  Amaechi as the General  of the unexpected APC victory who created the momentum of change by refusing to accept the recognition  given  to a minority faction of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum  by the incumbent president when  Governor Amaechi  got 19  votes and his defeated  opponent Governor Jang recognized by the incumbent president had 16  votes at the NGF  election  meeting. The  lopsided Arithmetic   according Asiwaju led to a common sense revolution which  crystallised  into the dynamics  of change that created change of  power favoring the APC at the 2015  elections and  effectively sealed  any hope of continuity in office for the incumbent  president.  It  would seem that the reality  of the change dynamics and loss  of power is now dawning on the incumbent president hence the chilling of  the dynamics  of handing over into an iceberg of reluctance    to  quickly   hand  over.  Which   then is  an unwarranted obstacle  to the march  towards the  final  handing  over  of May  29,  a date  that all Nigerians  look forward to with great  hope and great expectations.

    At  the book launch  Asiwaju  mentioned the tripod  of Change that the APC will  carry  out in government. These are Reform, Relief  and Recovery  and these  three concepts of governance  shall  form  the theme of our  discussion next week  which  shall be  the last  in  our series on the transition of power culminating in the hand over of government to the president elect on May 29, Nigeria’s  present Democracy  Day.  Again, long live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Tinubu, Yoruba leadership and power in Nigeria

    Elections  make and  unmake leaders in any democracy  and  Nigeria is not an exception.  So  also  is Britain where the Conservatives  during  the week  coasted to  what pundits called a shock  victory  with a majority  of ten enabling them to form a government as winner  of the election instead of the last parliament where  they ruled  from a hung parliament in which they   led a Coalition   with  the  Liberal  Party which  got only  eight  seats  in the new parliament sending  it into  a political  oblivion. Of  course,  being Britain, the leaders of  Labor and the other two  parties  have resigned  for leading their  parties  to dismal  failure  at the election meaning that they were conscious of  their failure of leadership at  the elections and knew instinctively without being prompted, the right thing to do to enable their parties  to move  on after an unexpected defeat. That is the right thing for leaders in any democracy to do as in leadership,  failure is an orphan while  success  has many  fathers.

    In  Nigeria’s  2015  elections  won  decisively by former  opposition party the APC it  is not difficult  to  see the brain  behind  the deft political strategies  and moves that gave the unexpected victory to the party to effectively maul  an incumbent president out of office  in a presidential  election, the first of its kind in Nigeria. But  in this instance the statement that failure is an orphan  and success  has many fathers is  not being applied  correctly and in good faith and  that is not fair and  that is  my bone of contention today   and  the root cause  of the choice of topic   of  today  as well.

    Of  course  the brain or chief  strategist  of the APC   success in the last election was  former Lagos  state governor Asiwaju  Bola  Ahmed Tinubu and  he paid a steep  price  for it in sacrificing his  own  ambition  to be  running mate to the President  elect  on the altar of the  party   pragmatism  of having a Muslim /Christian ticket which the party adopted and which proved so successful  now  with  the benefit  of hindsight. That  success  has thrown up a debate  on the leadership  of the Yorubas  with some  disgruntled and disappointed PDP  leaders saying in the media that Tinubu  cannot be  taken as  the leader of the Yorubas  in spite of the fact that he plotted  successfully the campaign  and election that saw a Yoruba  man emerging as the Vice  President for  the first  time after the eight year presidency of former  President  Olusegun  Obasanjo who used  the Yoruba  and South West slot as president  after  the June 12  as  appeasement  for the region.

    But  unfortunately OBJ   regarded himself as a Nigerian first  and foremost and had great contempt for his Yoruba  origin;  a fact  which   dogged  his style  of administration  and  earned him the hatred  and disregard of his well  educated and highly  vocal  kinsmen  for ever.  OBJ thought and  acted throughout  his tenure both civilian and military as if it was a crime  to acknowledge your tribe in  office, a spill over from his military  training. Which sadly  too did  not inculcate in him the basic cultural  reality  that it is the love of the tribe which at  birth precedes  that of a nation, a  geographical  expression, that  one  must  learn and transfer  to  that nation  to make it meaningful  and realistic. Indeed  that is the normal  way  for cultural  and national  values  to evolve and eventually fuse  into a political culture or social  values.

    Today  however  the former senator  and governor  of  Lagos  state has brought the Yorubas  back  to the centre  of power in an election that no one gave the opposition  a  chance and one in which the incumbent is still  reeling from the impact of the defeat  after a swift  concession of that  defeat. This  has   manifested  as  a situation  in which  the incumbent has put the fear  of God  in those working or close  to him for the last five years through the threat of sack or dismissal in case  of  any  contact with  the incoming winner party  of the election that his party lost.  Yet  willy  nilly   he must  hand over on  May 29 whether  he likes  the face or faces of the people  in the incoming administration or not.  Certainly  what  OBJ  said  of IBB on the June  12 saga  that the military  dictator  has to  be treated carefully  like  a bull  in a China  shop  to make him  relinquish  power is playing itself out   before our eyes  on the road  to the hand  over date  of  May  29, the  Democracy Day selected  by the Obasanjo  Administration in utter  contempt  of the June  12  struggle.

    Ironically  the Champions  of June 12  will  be back in the saddle  of power come May  29  and  most  of the credit  for that will  go to Bola  Ahmed Tinubu whether  one  likes  him or not.  At  the very least  he deserves  the recognition  as the leader of the Yorubas in their  return to power and political relevance arising from  the success  of the  APC in the 2015  elections in which  his vision and unusual political  precocity  played  a major part.

    This  is  no time  to say success  has many fathers as some  are unfairly  alluding in denying this shrewd and far sighted political warrior and strategist  his due honor  and accolade on what I dare  to call a famous victory in the annals of  our  nation and  our turbulent  political  history.  Especially  with   the Yorubas  since the 1962  Action Group  Crisis that ballooned  into  a national  crisis leading to the Civil War from which the Yoruba Leader  the immortal Awo     emerged    from  Calabar  prison  to manage  the war  and the  Nigerian economy  very  successfully  on  both counts.

    Awo  led  the Yorubas  successfully  but he never led  them  to  Federal  power  in any election.  Awo  lost elections serially like the present president elect and  it was at his death that Ojukwu an old enemy  at  the Civil  War either  leeringly, tongue  in  cheek  or sincerely,  grudgingly labeled  him  the best president Nigeria never had. The  president elect will, God willing, take over power  on May  29 and  the architect  of that is Bola  Ahmed  Tinubu who  like  Awo  may  well  be the best president Nigeria never  had but who  certainly is the best leader the Yorubas  have at this point in time. He  has earned this honor and he deserves  the honor of being called  the leader  of his people even though he may be  too modest  to  acknowledge this but certainly  the cap fits. Not like  the NTA commercial  that sought  to turn Abacha into  a civilian  president before his death, but  the cap sits well on Tinubu’s  head  like his  familiar    shackle    braided Yoruba cap.  And  I  say  that with all seriousness  and not a  little envy  as  a Yoruba man proud  of his leader who  has emerged  as a true  leader   lost  in plain sight  to his  articulate and democratically vibrant kinsmen  and admirers.

    Let  me  end  on a news  item in the media  that the First  Lady  was away in Congo  Brazaville  on a visit to the wife  of  President Sassu  Dennis  Nguesso of that  nation for  a  scheduled  First  Ladies  outing. I  have  an interesting story on the loss  and regain  of power  involving  President  Sassu  Nguesso  who  had  been military  president before but lost a democratic presidential  election in his  bid to become a civilian president. He withdrew  into his presidential  mansion  in the capital  to brood  over his loss  of power. Just  then an  overzealous police squad  chased  one of his aides into the presidential  palace seeking to arrest him for an offence. Nguesso got furious  at the effrontery   of the intrusion into his palace  so soon after losing power and not only  chased  the policeman  out  but asked  his troops to seize power militarily  to regain what he  had lost at the democratic  elections. Ever  since   1997  Sassu  Nguesso  has  been  winning elections in Congo  Brazaville  and has not had  to withdraw into his palace to be insulted after any further  electoral  loss. The  moral of this unusual  story is clear as  we  approach May 29  and we  wish the First  Lady  safe  journey  back. Again  long  live  the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Elections, civil wars and professors

    As  we approach May 29  2015,   the hand over date of the incumbent president to the president elect,  there  is need  to watch  the utterances and body language of both leaders in the interest of the transition of power  from  one to the other. Make  no mistake  about my observation  here as it is patriotic and  it is not that of a cynic who  may  be accused  of seeing a cloud  on every silver lining. I  am  not one at least for today and for the sake of this analysis. Secondly  I believe that power  changed  hands in Nigeria on February  28 2015  when  the incumbent lost  for the first  time in our democratic history to a  challenger albeit  an experienced loser  hitherto.  But  power changed  hands even more peacefully  and  seamlessly  when the incumbent in that election, now loser,  quickly congratulated  his opponent as winner  and  the nation heaved  a huge  sigh  of relief while the  outside  world clapped  in both astonishment and undisguised  wonder  at the feat. That  made May 29  a formality  or a fait  accompli   to  look   forward  to until some rumblings  started coming out of Aso  Rock which  may  be described as mere after  thoughts or public  soliloquys on an election  that has come  and gone while  yielding way democratically  to a change that certainly will  not wait beyond May 29 2015.

    What  I am  rambling about should  be obvious by now  if you have  been following developments in the Nigerian  news  media in the last week. I  am shortlisting three events only for our digestion and analysis today in line with the topic  of the day which seem to pitch three incongruous issues together. But  I  assure  you that I will show you the umbilical  cord bonding them together quite easily.  The first  news item was  the warning from  the presidency to the president elect not to run a parallel government as the incumbent is still in office and not out  of power yet. The  second was  the lamentation of  Chief Rasheed  Ladoja  of  the  Accord  Party   who  lost  in the guber election  of April  11 in Oyo  State and conceded  defeat but is going to the election tribunal  to contest the results  because he thinks  he has evidence  that his party the  Accord Party indeed won the guber election  in the state. Chief  Ladoja pointedly  condemned the use  of Professors as  Election Returning  Officers  because  they are arrogant and they are  not necessarily the best  for the job  in the Nigerian situation. The  third  was  the criticism  of the presidential  election  results by the incumbent president this week. The incumbent said his Party the PDP  could  not have gotten the results  it  got in some states in the  2015 presidential election which he  likened  to the Nigerian Civil War  on which there  have been many  written accounts. He  condemned defectors who left his  party  for  the victorious PDP saying such  defectors will come back on empty stomach from the APC  which obviously would starve them.

    Starting from the issue  of parallel  government it is clear there is a misunderstanding from the presidency. It  was reported that the incumbent  will hand over only  on May  29 which  was later denied before the Transition teams of both sides were put together. It would appear  that the denial was just a sound bite while the content of the denial is the spirit of the  hand over in the presidency. That  means the presidency is working as if it has just begun its tenure when indeed it should be rounding up proceedings after five years ending in electoral defeat. The sackings and appointments being announced corroborate this view. No  incoming administration on a fresh  mandate  can close its eyes and mind to the creation  of booby traps  by an outgoing administration  which  seems to have adopted the scotched earth war strategy  of Attila  the Hun  when he sacked  the Ancient  Roman  Empire in those dark days of the Middle Ages. Attila’s policy  was  embedded  in the statement he made that where  I have passed  the grass will  not grow again. Such  policy  or its offsprings are not applicable or   relevant  in  our transition  of power schedule to May  29 and  that  perhaps  explains   why the president  elect is ever  vigilant on the last acts in  office  of the outgoing president. Just  like  the Communists use  to say – Eternal vigilance is the price  of liberty and  one can say  in this transition saga that eternal  vigilance on the part  of the  president elect is the price of  a successful transition  on MAY 29 2015. In  the US where we copied  the presidential system lame duck  presidents use the exit period  to pardon their  cronies and collaborators in office on one form  of punishment or another not for sackings and new appointments as we have been seeing nowadays.

    On  the issue of INEC  using professors as returning  officers raised  by Chief  Ladoja  in  Ibadan one can say that the Accord  Party leader was both right and wrong. Professors  are  arrogant as of right because they have knowledge that is unique in their area  of specialization which others  don’t have. That  is hardly  their  fault.  But  they  are not professors  in the task their fellow  professor,the boss at  INEC  assigned them  at the last  elections and that too is not their  fault  but that of the professor  that appointed them whose  motive was  to enhance the electoral  process with the aura of prestige and integrity associated with  professorship . That  however did  not jell as the professors as returning officers behaved like frightened  chicken before the public view obviously because outside their ivory  tower  they were  like fish  out  of  water. They  were ill equipped  for the mechanical  duty  of announcing results which  had  nothing to do with their  various fields of endeavor on which  they  can postulate confidently and even look down on their  audience.  At  the last elections the Nigerian audience had cause and important ones at that   too,  to look down on the theatrical performance of the otherwise distinguished professors who announced the election results nationwide. Please  find time to look at videos  of the election results  announcements again and  have  a merry laugh at professorial  nervousness and  awkwardness  in the process  of announcing mere election results to a waiting nation.  On  that score  Chief Rasheed Ladoja was right that that  simple electoral chore was not the best to use our best brains for under  the circumstances.

    Thirdly  on  the comparison of the 2015  elections to the Nigerian Civil War I have  a suspicion that  the post  election bad blood that crystallised into sackings and new  appointments at the point  of exit  from power reflect a war stance based on the Attila scotch  earth policy of ancient times. Otherwise an election,  won or lost  is manifestly different from any war not to talk of a war amongst brothers which a civil war such as ours really was. But  our civil war ended on a note of the three Rs  of General Yakubu Gowon namely  Reconciliation   Reconstruction, Rehabilitation ,and  the nation  has moved on ever since.  Even  post  election violence which the incumbent’s  fast concession averted can not be likened to a war because  it is  a protest against  electoral  robbery that is allowed to stand in the face of glaring evidence. It  is a political reaction outside the law that is condemnable but it is an expected reaction to perceived injustice but certainly not a war.  Just  as an  election  by any stretch of the imagination can not be called a  war  as it is just a simple political competition in which one  party or person wins and another loses. As it happened in our nation at the last 2015 elections  making us to look forward to the hand over of May 29 2015 Insha  Allah Amen.

  • Democracy, May 29 and new global challenges

    As  Nigeria transits to a new government on her Democracy  Day  on May  29, and   the outgoing president fired the Inspector   General of Police  ostensibly  over partisanship  in the last  presidential elections, there  is no doubt that the  firing stemmed  from a clear case of sour grapes. The  Yorubas  have a saying that sums up  such furious  and  pointed counter reaction. They say desperate  diseases  require desperate cures  and that   literally  it is in order  to ruin the eggs of a fowl that overturns your pot of medication. Coming  from  a usually  restrained incumbent  president who some thought  could not hurt a fly and  whose  major weakness in losing the election was that he did  not perform or did not have plan to say what he did till  it was  too late, one  hopes this is not a potent  sign  of unexpected  actions that may make the transition turbulent after a graceful act  of defeat concession. Anyway  we  are watching and we are all ears as we  take on some issues  that walk  alongside  our   historic  match  towards  the inauguration of the president elect on May  29.

    Two  issues,  namely  migration to Europe  of  Africans   via  the  Mediterranean Sea and Xenophobia  in S Africa  dominate  the global  scene  and concern  this week. It  is   however  note worthy that the   European  Union-the EU  is deeply  concerned  about the flood  of Africans  who are ready  to  die on the high seas  in seeking a new life in Europe  by landing in Italy at any cost  just  to escape the life of misery and poverty  that is their lot if they stayed in Africa. On the  topic  of  Xenophobia which  is hatred  of strangers  and which  has been the lot of Jews  in  Europe leading  to Hitler’s  Holocaust  in the Second  World  War  one  thought  that  the  civilized   world  had learned enough from  such  horrors for humanity to move on decently in the assurance that man  has  transcended  such  levels of bestiality.  But  as  ISIS  has  shown   in  the  Middle East when it burnt  the Jordanian pilot alive  and displayed  the video  to  a world  audience   and Boko  Haram  did by abducting the over  200 Chibok  girls  in  Nigeria, while El  Shabab  went and killed mostly  female  undergraduates  in a Kenya  University  recently, barbarism and  lack  of respect for human life   and dignity is  still  a reigning  virtue  and value  in some  societies  in spite  of the attempt  or veneer  at civilization  and claims  of being decent and modern  societies.  I  look  at these two  issues  today and also  that of the visit  of the presidents  of  Ghana and Cote  D’Ivoire to  both the outgoing  Nigerian  president and the president elect and   draw  some conclusions  from some of the body  language reported  at  both  meetings.

    On  the migration  matter  which  has  become an election  issue  in Europe in which right wing parties  are becoming popular because  of  xenophobists  who  think foreigners are responsible  for their poor economic condition I  can  only hope  that the incessant  migration will  not lead  to a new xenophobic Europe against migration  altogether. Before  now  I had  argued   that Europe must take care  of the migrants  because of Colonisation,  its iniquities  and exploitation  of the colonies.  But that argument  does  not  hold water now given the way  elected  African  leaders  after  independence  frittered away golden  opportunities  to make economic progress  the goal  of their leadership. Instead  they    amassed  colossal  and  dubious  wealth  for themselves  and their families through  massive corruption  and personal  enrichment  that created the type  of poverty that made  their subjects  ready  to flee  and die  on the high  seas; to  seek  a better  life  rather  than hang  around and die predictably  of hunger and poverty  in their native nations.

    It  is  great  pity  indeed  that ironically  colonialism  created globalization  which  spawned democracy  and the market  economy which gave  rise  to corruption and political  instability and  that beckoned  on migration which  has now  created xenophobia in  Europe. It  could be uncharitable  but  one can  be forgiven  to say the  chicken has come home to  roost  but one  will still have to answer  the important question – for who? Is  it Europe  or  for  Africa?  For  me, at  the risk  of  being  said  to be dodging the question,  my sympathy  is with the EU for  the humanitarian  approach   some political parties  in power have adopted  to find a solution to the migrants issue  even though it is costing them expensive political power at recent and on coming elections especially  Britain  where campaigns  are on for elections into the next British Parliament.

    Certainly  one can  not compare  the type  of xenophobia  in Europe with  that of  S Africa fuelled  by a Zulu  King   who  said  a terrible thing and thought  he recanted when  he lamented  that he would  not be the first  to say  that foreigners  should  go home. The  Zulus  were  a war  like race and fought both  the British  and the Boers  who  seized their  land and colonized  them  but  the history  of the gallantry  of Chaka  the  Zulu  who  was their  most famous King is now part  of the history  of S Africa  that any  African  can  be proud  of.  Incidentally  S Africa’s  democratically elected president Jacob  Zuma  is a  Zulu  and should  do  something  urgently to  call  his king to order  so  that S  Africa does  not migrate  ingloriously  from  freedom  from  apartheid into  another   evil  opprobrium  of xenophobia  in broad  daylight  and right before  our eyes.  Really  it is very  saddening that  Nigerians from Nigeria which  led the fight to crush  apartheid globally  and free  Nelson  Mandela are  being targeted in the hate  fed xenophobia. President Jacob  Zuma should  use  his executive powers to stop the killing of fellow Africans immediately  and assure  his countrymen  of his strategies  to alleviate their economic woes and plight  in a nation where they  wield invincible  political  power  but  have  not been able  to translate  that into economic emancipation  and development  of the masses  of deprived  and suffering  black  S Africans.  The  solution  however  is not in killing well  meaning and hard working Africans in their midst.

    Just  as it is not in migrating as those getting drowned  in the Mediterranean are  discovering. Again  one can thank  God  Almighty that Europe is Christian  and  merciful  to the migrants  and has not turned them back or turned on them like the S Africans. I  think  that is what is driving the rescue  effort in the Mediterranean.  I  really  cannot resist quoting from  Mario  Puzo’s  best seller  The  Family  on the Renaissance  period,      given  me by my friend Eric  Teniola.   The  Renaissance   was a time    when  Popes  had children  and concubines.  Pope  Alexander told  his wayward  cardinal  son   Caesar  Borgia. ‘I  believe  in an  Almighty  God  that  is  Merciful  and Kind. That  is our   faith and that you must believe. Learn  to  live with your sins. Confess  them  or not  but never  doubt  faith. ‘ That  I believe,  by some bizarre twist   of   fate,  is what is  driving Europe  which  is largely    faithless    today  to pick  up  Africans ready to die to escape  man made poverty and penury  and find a way to give  them succor  in a foreign land one way  or the order. I doff  my  hat – and   bless  my heart-  to them  in awe  and admiration  as they  exhibit  the best  trait of humanity  amidst  the cascades  of globalization and modernization;  which  is being one’s brother’s   keeper.

    Lastly  the visit  of the two  incumbent presidents   from Ghana  and Ivory  Coast  to  our incumbent  president and president elect   could  not   be devoid  of  certain  feelings  and emotions. Of  course the president elect  was  happy  to receive his august  visitors  as he expects  from May  29  to  begin  to enjoy the dignities, honors and   perquisites to which  the visiting heads of states  are accustomed to. On  the other hand the   visit  to the incumbent    or  outgoing   president  have been  devoid  of the usual  pleasantries  and banters as the host  has lost  power although  he has not lost face  or dignity by  the swift  way  he conceded defeat.  The  visit  was  a farewell  one.  That  explained  why  according to some reports there was one podium for the visitor instead  of the usual  two for the incumbent and visitor as in the recent happier  days. That  again shows that  power  is transient and  is  not a permanent   possession of  any  politician  as  it is renewable at  the polls only  at  election  time;  as we  did last  time  and effected  a change and  a sweet  one  at  that. Again  long  live the Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • With Buhari’s discipline , Tinubu’s vision and Osinbajo’s law

    From  May  29   2015 when  retired General  Muhammadu  Buhari  is sworn in as our new president our  nation turns  a new page  in  terms  of leadership  and governance. My  mission today  is to  hazard a guess  on the path  and direction of that change as  well  as its prospects alongside  the expectations  of  Nigerians.  This  is  because  Nigerians   are  yet to  believe  their  luck and  fate that  a new  government  has resulted from  the flawed  democratic  and electoral  process  that has become our political  culture and has  created the myth  that the incumbency  factor can never   yield  or give way  to  a  change  of  government in any  democratic   election. Now    the  April  11  2015  presidential  elections has  made that  a thing  of the past  and  our  nation Nigeria is on the march again  as in that  famous NTA  network  commercial and  song.

    This  is a march  that can be described  as  both  military  and democratic  in nature  because the  APC  which won the presidential  election is not only  an amalgam  of both , as is the PDP  which it displaced, but  it  is also a   political hybrid of sorts. This  is because  the vision  that created the APC was quite innovative  in its perspective that alliances have  to be created  by whatever  means  across the  north –  south  divide  of our great   nation   to  pose  a credible  and potent  challenge to the mammoth  spread  and reach  of the ruling PDP. This  notion and vision  appeared  to be a gamble then to onlookers,  but now it  is  a gamble  that has paid  off  and very  beautifully  too   in terms  of the dividends  of democracy.  This  again   is because  power  has changed  hands   across  the  nation seamlessly  and  effortlessly  without rancor and the much dreaded post  election violence that  the west  especially  has always  invoked  as the  inevitable  result  of  our electoral  and  democratic  process in  Nigeria. Now  that myth  and misrepresentation  has been guillotined  by  the  smooth  transition  going  on in the emergence of  retired  General  Muhammadu  Buhari  as our president  elect  until  May  29  when he  will  be sworn  in as our president.

    Today  however I look  at this  march as a march  forward and  in terms the  dictates and  philosophy  of the discipline  of Strategic  Management. The  take  off     theory  here  is that a company,  organization   and  indeed  any nation  can  not  be severed from its environment and its strategy must reflect that  fact to be realistic  and successful. If  you  substitute  a political  party like  our new  ruling  party  the  APC   then  you  have real  subject  of political  analysis  that is both educative  and  revealing especially  after  our last  presidential  elections. To  have  a good  strategy an  organization must  have  a vision, stemming from  its  position   as  it creates  programmes  that can  enable it to make products and services  profitably.  Any  organization  in any environment  must  have evolved  a culture  from its way of operations  arising  from its structure, its  systems and  the people working for it. Of  course  the strategy is  the compass that  will lead  the direction  of the operational  march of any  organization  in any environment.

    It  is against   this background  that we take a look  at the trio  of personalities  that have emerged as the  leadership  of  the APC  as  it  takes  over power  from  the PDP  after  May  29. This  leadership  involves   both the president  and vice    president  elect  as well  as the  National  leader  of the Party  Senator   Bola  Ahmed  Tinubu,  the former  governor   of  Lagos  state. In  spite  of this tripod leadership   however  we  acknowledge that since we run a presidential  system, the buck  stops  on the table  of Mr President Muhammadu  Buhari.

    Again  if we start  from  the formal  to the informal we  shall  easily  see that in terms of discipline as a soldier and an officer Buhari  stands head and shoulder  over  the other two. In  terms  of experience  and hunger  for the job  of president also  he has  no equal.  So  the march  of progress  at  his  command  must  proceed at  a fast but  humane pace as  Nigerians expect  the creation  of jobs  for our youths, power  for  our industries,  free tuition  in our universities  and  institutions of higher  learning and the final  onslaught  to terminate the terror  of Boko  Haram in our  midst.

    This   is especially  urgent  and  most desirable now    because  of the report   that  the Time  Magazine  has  insultingly  named  the Boko   Haram leader   alongside  our president as amongst the ‘Most  Influential  100‘. Which  really is  a clear  case  of bad judgement  on the part of the reputable Time  Magazine for the simple fact that it is giving a podium  of recognition  to terrorism and  murder  of  Nigerians just  for  the simple  reason  that Nigerians  are  not  Americans and as such  honors can  be awarded  to their  killers while the US  will  go  to any  length  to attack  and kill  anyone who attacks  or  kills  its citizens. Time  Magazine  should be told that its mis categorisation  of our president  on the same platform with the Boko  Haram leader, no matter  the criteria,  is  not only insolent and barbaric  to  Nigerians,  it is provocatively promoting terrorism  and  is   just not acceptable.

    The  rule  of law  creates  the enabling  environment   for  democracy  and  economic  growth  to thrive  any where  and  Nigeria is no exception.  The  Vice   President elect,  Professor  Yemi  Osinbajo    brings impeccable credentials to support the president elect both  as a professor  of law and as a pastor. The  law of any society  evolves  from its tradition  and customs and  religion teaches  moralty  and ethics  so that citizens  respect each other’s  rights  and beliefs  and do not impose their will on others and create anarchy.  As  a former Attorney  General  of  Lagos state Professor  Osinbajo  is well  placed  to lead  and guide  the march  towards  a peaceful  and prosperous  era  for  Nigerian  after May 29  and we can  not wait  long enough  for him to assume  office with  the president  elect.

    The  third  arm  of this tripod of leadership come May  29  is  an informal arm  of leadership at  least  for now  till May  29  when  he  must  assume  a leading position  in Nigeria’s march  towards  economic  prosperity from that date.  He comes  well prepared  politically, intellectually  and professionally. He  is Bola Ahmed Tinibu  the visioner of the change that translated into the electoral  success that will ensure that a new president is sworn in on the  platform of the victorious APC at  the last April 11 elections in this nation. This  is one laurel  that no  one  can take away  from this former oil accountant and  shrewed  politician  who  extols  and practices capitalism  but with a human face.  Intellectually  he is well prepared  and has a prepared text to turn this nation round in terms of economic growth on the march  towards prosperity  and reduction  of the inequalities and poverty  that has been  the hallmark  of the defeated administration. Asiwaju  Bola  Tinubu is the joint au thor  of the  book  Financialism –which  states that  it is on how to get water from  a well  and how the financial  system bleeds the economy. The  book  is an antidote  to the present IMF  induced and Washington  Concenssus  driven  conditionalities  that have  pauperized  nations  applying it as  Nigeria has for years now through the IMF agent in our midst – the Coordinating Minister for the Economy.

    Luckily  that will  be over by  May  29  when  our new March begins.  I bet  the economic  march  will dance  to the beat and drums Financialism  to the betterment of  Nigerians, their  families  and their future. Really  Financialism  is in the same league as  that  of the book  by the  winner  of the Nobel Prize  for Economics in 2001  Professor  Joseph  Stiglitz  who wrote Globalisation  and its Discontent, a book  that condemned the IMF  and  World  Bank  for imposing a model  of economic growth that favored banks and  financial  institutions while ignoring competing and alternative economc models  of growth  that reduce  poverty and inequalities  while  embarking on the economic path  of realistic and beneficial  change.  That  too  is the theme  of Financialism and  I  can  not see  any Finance  Minister better  prepared  than Asiwaju  for the march  forward to transform  our economy to a prosperous  one with its innovative and well researched analysis  of economic  growth  and recipe  for poverty  reduction and  bridging  of the gap of economic inequalities.

    I  know  and acknowledge  that the manifestoes  and creed  of the APC  are in the public  domain. I  cannot  however resist the urge to  peep  into  the minds of our new  leaders  because their   emergence  has  given us great hopes and expectations. Till  May 29 then,   hazarding a guess  on the  direction  of this desirable and promising march  will  be my main occupation  on this page. It  is an assignment  that I hope  will be mutually  beneficial  with readers generally. Again  long live  the  Federal  Republic  of  Nigeria.

  • Today’s election and the bandwagon, change and continuity syndromes

    To  say  or hazard  a guess  that today’s guber  and state legislative elections in Nigeria  will be very  much affected by the results  of the last presidential  elections is not  in anyway  an exaggeration but the truth. The presidential  election was won by APC candidate  retired General Muhammadu  Buhari who  is now our official  president elect while   the  loser  and  incumbent president must carry on like  the ultimate lame duck  president he has become till  the president elect  is sworn in on our democracy day May  29. That  really is the beauty  of democracy which  the great  Nnamdi  Azikiwe  used  to admonish  the former Administrator  of the East  Central state by  telling the man Ukpabi  Asika that  no condition  is permanent  and that was why the son  of a postmaster  could become a state governor.

    Similarly  the last presidential  elections  threw  the president who  never wore  shoes  before  coming  to power out  of office and replaced  him with  a man who  had lost thrice  in seeking  that same office. That  is what the French  mean when they say C’est  la vie   which  means such is life.

    Given  the  great   opportunities, influence and power  that electoral victories  confer  on successful  contestants it  is not difficult  to see  why electoral victories  are  celebrated in a triumphal,  winners take  all  mood   as  if they  are the last elections  before the end of the world. The essence of such celebrations is to leave the losers and their  sympathisers in no doubt  of their failure  and   loss  or  that  failure  indeed is an orphan and  that success  is sweet  even  though  it has many  fathers including defectors 24  hours  to the election date.

    One   needs  this sort of  down to earth appraisal  and elucidation  to appreciate the theme  and topic of today  in  order to have a realistic grasp of the mood  of Nigerians as they vote in another election  today  at the mercy of the great INEC, Nigeria’s  mighty electoral body  and master artist at the trick of mass disenfranchisement  of  Nigerian  voters.  Please  do not lose any sleep over my description  of INEC  because  that important institution at  election time does not respond to complaints before elections not to talk  of during it and  it knows that given the way Nigerians are desperate for power it can get away with murder as the politicians  look  the other way. INEC’S  power in Nigerian  politics and with  regard  to Nigerian  political parties  and leaders  can  be compared to that of a football referee on the field of  play. Once  the referee issues a red card the victim keeps  on marching in one direction and that is out of the field  of play with some match bans  in toe.  Which  in this case is till next election  four  years on or the mitigation  of reinstatement after expensive  litigation accompanied by painful  lamentation on the success or failure  of such legal  gymnastics at which Nigeria’s famous SANs  make their  huge  fortunes   in  our  temples   of justice  smiling in silk all  the way to the bank.

    Let  me dilate first  on the concepts  I have  highlighted as likely  to  dominate  today’s  elections in various  contexts. The  first  is the bandwagon effect which  viewed  from the failure is an orphan  context favors  the APC  which  won  the presidential  election. The second is the change  concept  which the APC adopted because the ruling  PDP had been in power for the last 16 years and at a time a former Chairman of the party boasted  that the party, the PDP will be in power for the next 50  years which  is now  mere wishful  thinking. The  third is the concept  of  Continuity which  is the  adopted  profile  for parties  that had been  in  power  for a long time in any state and  such states can be either PDP or APC states.

    Given  the lure  of power and success  at  the  last  presidential  elections  the APC  should  benefit immensely nationwide from  the bandwagon effect  since it is now the party whose  candidate is the next landlord  or tenant at Aso  Rock Nigeria’s source  of power, wealth,  influence  and patronage. Today  when APC candidates tell  voters not to waste their vote by voting for the opposition which the PDP  has  suddenly  become they  sound quite believable  and credible;  because suddenly too, as a result  of the last presidential election the APC is now Nigeria’s ruling party. Today’s  election  should,     all   things   being equal , consolidate  that.

    Rather  than going round the  nation to  illustrate  the effect of the change and continuity syndrome on today’s  election I will  dwell  on the situation  in  Lagos  State  where  the APC  is  using the concept  of  Continuity  to  retain  power even though  it won the presidential elections on the slogan  of change.

    In  Lagos in particular an  institution that is supposed  to be apolitical  and neutral  in democratic affairs  and competition , the  traditional  institution has thrown spanner in the works  for the APC  which won the last presidential  elections on a slogan  of Change.  The  purported statement by the Oba of  Lagos Rilwan Akiolu that the Igbos  in Lagos should  vote for his anointed candidate and APC candidate  Akinwunmi  Ambode or  risk drowning in the Lagoon  if they  don’t  has heightened  tension  in the state where  the Igbos  are many and some of them won  legislative   seats  in the last  March  28  elections. The  APC  has  had to disown the Oba’s extravagant  and  totally  unexpected foray  into politics albeit  on the APC  side. The  party  has gone to great lengths  to distance itself from the Oba’s  choice pointing out that the king is not a card carrying member  of the APC  even though he is entitled to make  a political  choice  he is not expected to impose  his will on anyone else   including the energetic  and  economically  boisterous  Igbos.

    Really  I doubt if  the Oba’s  royal  gaffe  can upset  the applecart in a state that the APC  has  governed  with two governors and four terms in recent times. But  it is  natural  to expect the PDP,  a party  in  perpetual  opposition  in the state while in power in Abuja,  not try  to make a mountain out of the mole hill created unbelievably  by the Oba  of  Lagos.  Moreso  as the PDP normal  consolation in the state, the prized  possession  of Federal power and might had  been   evaporated  by the last  presidential election which was like  an upper  cut to  the jaw for a party  that has ruled Nigeria  in the best tradition  of the  infamous  ‘born to rule’  syndrome  of yesteryears.

    Overall  I  expect  the PDP  governors  and  candidates to fight fiercely for their  political  life to  show that the party is not about to collapse  like a pack  of cards  as in the domino theory on international  relations during the Cold War. But  then the  APC  can  bank  on the theory  that you  don’t change  a winning team   especially  one  that has just emerged  from the sweet  victory  of the last  presidential  elections. Definitely  in today’s  election the PDP  candidates  will  definitely  know  how the shoe  pinches.  Especially    now  when their  Champion  who  never  wore a shoe before becoming president is now  busy packing his belongings out of the seat  of power  in  Aso  Rock,  Abuja. Again, Happy  Voting.