Category: Dayo Sobowale

THE Primaries of the two major parties in Nigeria have thrown up new leaders this week who have emerged, from obscurity in some cases, to state and national prominence. The results have shown the power of caucuses and cabals involved in the intra party rivalries as well as the relevance and obsolescence of hitherto party arrangements and loyalties . Which goes to show that politics is a moving game of dynamics and revolving doors. It has also shown that some power equations still have the clout to weather any storm and accept any challenges and still come out successful with all cylinders still blazing. Today I look at the emergence of flag bearers from our party caucuses with a view to seeing what they can learn from the style of leadership of some local and global leaders in the news, this last week.

The first of such leaders is the great Nelson Mandela who died a year ago this week but who by his contribution to human freedom and dignity remains immortal as an example of credible and humane leadership for the whole world, for all times , and for all seasons. The second is Vladmir Putin President of Russia who addressed his people this week and warned them against the West which he said is casting another Iron Curtain similar to the Cold War around Russia. The third is Robert Mugabe, the 90 year old President of Zimbabwe who this week positioned his wife as his successor by accusing the nation’s Vice President of a plot to assassinate him, as exposed by his wife. The fourth is the Iron Man of Lagos Politics, former Governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who showed the power of political control even in the face of fierce competition, as he marshalled the state APC Primaries to see the emergence of his anointed candidate from the state primaries for the 2015 gubernatorial elections in the state. Let me warn the flag bearers that I am leaving it to them to reach their conclusions on the type of leaders they want to be when they finally win elections and come to office. The title of a favourite film of mine – The good, the bag and the ugly – can be a very good sign post here. Also popularity and good leadership don’t always go hand in hand and what is good for the goose in some cases may not always be good for the gander in assessing some of these leaders. This is because there is no laboratory in the world for breeding leaders. They emerge, as the flag bearers of today have done this week from their various political environments and culture, and the path they take to prominence and leadership may not always be strewn with roses. What is unique about them however is that they have been able to use their brand of politics and style of leadership to influence the culture of their environment in a certain direction. Today they have gripped the attention of the civilised world as leaders worthy of mention and from whom undoubtedly, lessons can be learnt by new and emerging leaders of the world.

Starting with Nelson Mandela who died a year ago let me pay tribute by pointing out some of the leadership styles he practised in S Africa where he served 27 years in prison and emerged without malice towards those who incarcerated him on Robben Island under the obnoxious and racist Apartheid System in that nation then. These lessons were gathered in a series of interviews he had over his lifetime. Mandela said you should keep close to your enemies but do not leave your friends far behind. He asked us to learn the language of your enemy as he learnt Afrikaans in prison as well as his enemy’s favourite game – this time Rugby – the favourite game of the racists which Mandela supported as president when S Africa won the Rugby World Cup staged in S Africa immediately on his election as President of S Africa. More importantly Mandela showed the world that tenacity of office is not an African leadership disease by serving only one term and asking others to carry on. In fact as revealed in his biography he never wanted to be president. All he wanted to do was to be the Secretary of the party – the African National Congress – ANC – so as to prepare it for the challenges of leadership in a multiracial S Africa. Mandela has done his bit and has gone on and two presidents have succeeded each other after him. The fact that some members of the S African Parliament were suspended last week without pay for heckling the S African president over corruption when he came to address Parliament last week showed that the spirit of Mandela on transparency, accountability and dignity lives on in the post Mandela era in that great nation.

Next is Russia’s President Vladmir Putin who even his critics in the west confirm is popular at home with his fellow Russians . So why should Putin lose any sleep because he is being snubbed in international circles by the wast because he has invaded Ukraine twice and has even refused to withdraw from territories captured by invading Russian troops? In his speech to the Russian people he asked them be prepared for self reliance as the West maximises financial and economic sanctions on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine. He accused the west of a policy of containment over Russia and of plotting to break up Russia the way the former Yugoslavia disintegrated. To Russians Putin is their lovable strong leader standing up to the west especially the USA . Putin was Russia’s president from 2000 to 2008, PM from 2008 to 2012 when he was elected president again. To western minds that is not democracy. But then who are they to determine the sort of democracy Russians want when the Russians are so proud of their leader in making Russia to rub shoulders with the powerful nations of the world? Surely one man’s food is another man’s poison on this matter.

Our next leader provides a good example of a gerontocracy in a democratic setting. Robert Mugabe is preparing for his mortal departure but not a political one. He has sacked his Vice President Joyce Mujuru with whom he fought the Independence War against Ian Smith during the Unilateral Declaration of Independence – UDI- days and is planning to replace her with his wife who made history by earning her Ph d from a university in Zimbabwe in three months. It is that doctorate that she is now using as a form of address as Dr Grace Mugabe to boost her political figure and stature as her husband’s successor. Surely Shakespeare’s Seven Stages of life, which says the last stage of ‘’second childishness and mere oblivion‘ has gripped the Zimbabwean leader even though he is still popular and powerful enough to make his wife to succeed him in his nation, now in the vile grip of his laughable, last gasp, gerontocracy.

Our fourth leader is a son of the soil, a Nigerian and leader of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who many may call the Iroko of South West politics but who in reality is a lesson in political pragmatism and innovation. Which has made him to reclaim something he was about to lose in recent times. If you recall the story of the Iroko tree that stood stubbornly against a strong wind and was uprooted and the reed that bent in the direction of the wind and survived as the Iroko fell, then you will appreciate the political cunning, acumen and sagacity that went into the selection and election of a Christian and a proven public accountant as the next governor of Lagos state. This is because if the Houdini of Lagos politics had not anointed Akinwunmi Ambode as the party’s candidate as every one had said, there would have been open opposition in the state to a Muslim candidate. The primaries have vindicated that and Lagos is predictably safe for the APC in the 2015 elections. My hope now is for Asiwaju to use that pragmatism and sagacity in favour of the Man from Kano, the Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso in the presidential primaries of the APC in Lagos this week. As I said before Kwankwanso has achieved a lot in terms of education and infrastructure in Kano and has boldly told off Boko Haram which is trying to intimidate Kano consequently and we need such a leader at the helm of affairs at the centre in Abuja in 2015. But then the Battle of Lagos, I mean the presidential primaries of the APC have to be fought and won in Lagos this week. And there is no denying on whose turf the home game is being played or who is the Conductor of the Symphony Orchestra. Surely I can only say, hope springs eternal, for fruitful presidential APC Primaries.

THE presidential system in Nigeria is under serious stress nowadays and for obvious reasons. In reality it is normal for any system to have problems either structural, systemic or functional. When however, such problems threaten the very existence of a multicultural democratic society such as ours, then there is great cause for urgent concern. That was the situation in Nigeria in this last week as the nation prepared for the 2015 presidential elections with the incumbent president seeking re election. The political system is overheated with violent words and actions. The economic system is struggling with the widest income disparity in recent times even as our oil Minister becomes the president of OPEC in these times of falling oil prices. Which can only make our revenue fall and catapult our poverty stricken masses into deeper misery in the midst of plenty in the present governance dispensation.

Our security apparatus too is in turmoil as the Army Chief refused at first to speak freely with legislators when summoned to the National Assembly while the Police Inspector General on his own visit simply refused to acknowledge the status of the Speaker, the head of the legislative institution that summoned him in the first instance. In the hallowed chambers of our Senate there are reports that 63 senators have signed on to impeach our president in a senate of 109 members. Mean while in Osogbo, the capital of Osun state, opposition leaders celebrated the second coming of the governor of the state, with the Colossus of South West politics Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu telling Nigerians to come out bravely and unseat the present president at the coming polls, as the nation has reached the nadir of suffering and frustration on the incumbent’s watch and he just must go in 2015.

Yet, in the midst of all these high tension the presidential spokesman was reported to have said that the incumbent president is the best president that Nigeria has ever had and would be rewarded with re election in 2015. This was the same week that Boko Haram reportedly killed 48 Nigerian fish vendors at Dogon Fili, 15 kilometres from Doron Baga a fishing village on the shores of Lake Chad in Borno State. Doron Baga itself is 180 kilometres from Maiduguri and is the base of the Multi National Joint Task Force – MNJTF- made up of troops from Nigeria, Chad and Niger fighting Boko Haram in the area. Of course we still know that the over 200 abducted Chibok girls are yet to be found. Which certainly bring us face to face with the nagging question of how Nigeria got to this very sorry pass or situation, how to get out of the rut and those expected to bell the cat in this regard.

Let me start by saying that our values in terms of morals and culture have nose dived a lot from the time we got our independence in 1960. In addition the many military interventions in our politics have polluted our political culture with corruption, lack of transparency and accountability and the political system has allowed our social capital to be destroyed by these value or cultural deterioration. By social capital I mean the beliefs, values and attitudes of a society and nation that make people trust each other and cooperate to have progress in their environment. I mean our Institutional Capital like our property and ownership laws, respect for the rule of law, our bureaucracy and government institutions, firms that employ and produce goods and services and train and compensate their staff; Knowledge Capital like universities, copy rights and think tanks; Human capital like skills, insights and capabilities and Cultural Capital which are our beliefs and goals of a society or a nation’s way of life. It is my contention that the trust of our founding fathers at independence has been betrayed such that our present leaders no longer trust each other to play by the rules and that is why our political system is so overheated that we cannot cooperate to stop Boko Haram or trust any one outside ourselves, our enclave or environment to protect us and our property. That explains why those in power rig shamelessly to stay in power and those without power rig to get in. Yet our motto as a nation is still ‘unity in diversity ‘which then at independence was based on trust which now seems to have deserted our political culture or cultural firmament for now.

Nevertheless we can still hope that all is not lost and we should see some light at the end of our dark and gloomy cultural and political tunnel But first we must tell ourselves some home truths before the 2015 elections.

Our present constitution is based on the presidential system of government premised on the separation of powers among the executive, the legislature and the judiciary. Each arm of government is equal and they are to cooperate and operate in between and betweext. The security services and armed forces are under the control of their civilian and elected officers and the closure of the National Assembly to legislators by the police should not have occurred. It should be unthinkable for that to happen in any democracy where actors play by the rules and respect each other. Similarly the posture of a police Inspector General refusing to acknowledge the title and presence of a Speaker in his parliament is an official effrontery on the legislature and an assault on our democracy. It is a dangerous trend and the IG has to be purged of his disdain and disrespect for constituted authority. In Mexico where 43 students disappeared the Mexican president has called for police reforms on a massive scale all over Mexico. A similar measure could be put in place here at least before the 2015 elections as police actions in the legislative fracas and the attitude of the IG have ominously created mistrust on police impartiality on the count down to the 2015 elections. It is apparent our separation of powers is under serious challenges in the way we are operating nowadays. It could be pre election syndrome or jitters for our politicians afraid of losing power in the coming elections or pre power acquisition stress for power seekers. What is needed is urgently however is strong, dedicated leadership that has respect for our constitutional separation of powers, and wields enough deterrence to make those with scant regard for the rule of law to have a quick rethink or acknowledge that they cannot operate in the same environment with such leaders in control.

Again I want to look at three leaders in the opposition APC party because APC is the credible alternative to the PDP which has led us to the present impasse where the balance of power has not been used successfully to deter and extinguish the terror, perfidy and insurgency of Boko Haram. Which makes it extravagant too to discuss what the candidate of the ruling party has to offer since their spokesman has already deemed him the best president Nigeria has ever had and we know the buck stops on his desk for the present impasse and political hiatus.

The three leaders are retired General Buhari, former Vice President Abubakar Atiku and the usually red capped Governor of Kano State Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso. I am ignoring the other two presidential primaries candidates because I don’t think they have any chance of getting the candidature of APC .Again like I said before on our deteriorating democratic and social values some home truths have to be said. First I acknowledge that General Buhari is the front runner in this contest because he has been head of state before and has contested for the same office twice before. But that popularity too can be an albatross. Can he be third time lucky? Must he contest for a third time? And is there a dearth of leadership with his mettle and reputation for sternness and discipline ?My answer to the three questions are a resounding No. So unless the other two candidates step down for him I think the APC should set its presidential sights elsewhere.

On Abubakar Atiku let me first of all congratulate him for his boldness and doughtiness in changing the views of the legislature, at least the House of Representatives that the state of emergency has not worked before and should not be extended in the three states of the North East presently affected. That has made him to secure his catchment area which is Adamawa state and that has given him a locus and relevance to contest for our presidency. Obviously from his published pleas on the plight of the Nigeria state and his renowned organisational ability it is clear he will be a strong candidate to contest for the presidency. But again has he the mettle to deter Boko Haram and shift the balance of terror and deterrence against Boko Haram? I honestly do not think so especially as his home state is still part of the Killaphate of Boko Haram. He has already said that he would work with anyone picked by the party. Which I think is sporty except that this is not a time for games.

Which leaves us with the third candidate, Rabiu Kwankwanso the Governor of Kano who really I think is the man to beat in the APC Presidential primaries, and I say this with all seriousness. Again let us go back to our stand on decaying values on democracy and institutions and the need to say the truth. In terms of the Management of institutions and political development Kwankwanso has an edge over the other two candidates. It has been acknowledged in Sociological circles that ‘Culture Matters‘ which really is the title of a book I read recently. It is said that cultural values determine human progress in any environment especially when they are linked with innovation, competition and democracy. Kwankwanso who is 58 years old presents a new face with modern achievements in Kano State and should be encouraged to give a new face to leadership in Nigeria. To me he should be given a chance to lead just as the Americans stunned the world a while back by choosing Barak Obama the first black President and a Professor of Law. Kwankwanso is a Fellow of the Nigerian Society of Engineers, a two term Governor who has fixed and is re fixing Kano such that the masses of that state know – Kano is working. He was a Federal Minister of Defence. Let us look forward to man educated enough in engineering to fix machines, structures and systems to bring his immense practical and professional knowledge, experience and innovation to fix our decaying political system and institutions That is the change we need to be hopeful for the future from 2015. He, really, is the Man to beat. So let the Presidential Primaries of Hope in the APC begin.

WHEN I read the headline credited to APC leader Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu this week that ‘INEC has merged with PDP’ I thought that was stretching the imagination of Nigerians too far even in our highly volatile and tension soaked political environment. But then, this was a week of unbelievable events. While Asiwaju Tinubu was raising a great alarm which turned out to be fortuitous since INEC made a u- turn on the creation of more voting booths in the north more than the south, other events and news were certainly no more alarming and provocative than the evil prospect of a merger of our major political institution with the ruling party of the land.

First imagine the Chief of Army Staff Major General Kenneth Minimah refusing to answer questions in the National Assembly from the Senate Committee on Defence unless the place was cleared of, of all people, journalists. Similarly just fancy the cheek of the Americans announcing that they will not sell the sophisticated Jaguar helicopter fighter to Nigeria because they did not think our military can maintain it . Thirdly you find it difficult to believe or answer the question of the Igbo Cultural group Ohaneze which in announcing its support for the declaration for re-election of the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan rhetorically asked if because people are being bombed the president should not declare his intention to contest for re-election?. Fourthly you want to wonder how the Angolans, fellow Africans, found the courage to tell off the all powerful African Football Confederation that it cannot host the next edition of the African Cup of Nations which Morocco has refused to host because of Ebola in West Africa.

Starting with the reported heated challenge the Chairman of the Defence Committee of the Senate, Senator George Sekibo gave the Army Chief, one is left with no choice but to sympathise with the army boss. He was told to his face that his army, our army was not performing but he refused to speak until journalists have been shown the door. His excuse was that he would not discuss war strategy on the pages of newspapers, which I think is tenable and should have elicited a prompt apology from a senate committee on defence which should have been security conscious but which later yielded to the General’s stand and banned the press which has always been the whipping boy of those in authority globally but especially in Nigeria. Really the Senate Committee rubbed salt in the festering wound and pride of the army over this Boko Haram disaster. It should not be that way. The army should be encouraged to retrieve its mettle and capability to send Boko Haram packing in a jiffy as we all thought and expected, before Boko Haram blossomed and metamorphosed from a domestic cat on Okada in Maiduguri to a very lethal full blown tiger on armoured cars and anti aircraft weapons in Mubi, right before our eyes. I am sure the Army boss used his armoury of discipline to maintain his cool before that Senate Committee. He must have remembered that story of a servant of a mighty sultan in those days of yore when power was arbitrary and absolute. Then, the servant touched his head on leaving the presence of his boss. That was the certain way of making sure he has survived the meeting because he still has his head on his shoulders. But then time changes and this is our democracy. With regard to the hatred of the army boss for journalists I assure him it is quite misplaced. He will need them very soon when the tide turns against Boko Haram and the army is victorious. He will then know why failure was an orphan.

With regard to the sale of helicopter fighters I think the Americans are simply having a good laugh, very publicly and most undiplomatically because of the intelligence they have on corruption in high places in our security establishment. They even asked us to buy elsewhere as they are not the only sellers and that given the human rights record of our military we could use the helicopters to kill civilians not to talk of our army. Well it is really not their fault. When the cat is not at home mice would play. If our army had wrung the neck of Boko Haram like chicken we will not be the butt of this nasty and humiliating American jokes. But then every dog has his day and the Americans can make merry with our present predicament till of course they shoot themselves in the leg with their rude mirth which will be quite soon. This is because given their prediction based on nothing that Nigeria will collapse in 2015 which they have not denied they can be accused of being the devil’s advocate by not helping us with needed ammunition in our of need when we are an integral part of their global war on terror and their national values include respect for the sanctity of human lives which Boko Haram is trampling on with impunity in our besieged North East. I pray really they have a change of mind and very soon to.

With regard to Ohaneze ‘s support for the PDP flag bearer and our President, the support is in order but it need not be couched in blood like the Spokesman did. People die every day whether elections are coming or not. When however young students are bombed on school assembly lines, humanity is disturbed and the milk of human kindness flows in empathy and sympathy for the victims. That is just natural. Just as people are still demonstrating in Mexico after the killing of 49 students by Police and drug gangs in that nation. That was the trait lacking in that question of the Ohaneze on the re-election bid. The living cannot or should not stop it. Neither can the harmless and innocent dead. Support can be given to the reelection bid as required without devaluing the worth and sanctity of human life. That question lacked humanity and was just extravagant.

However Angola’s rejection of the hosting of the 2015 African Cup of Nations was a lesson in cost control and budget management. The Angolan Spokesman on the issue said his nation had not applied to host and should therefore not be forced to do so. In addition he said the notice was short and Angola has just approved its sports budget and was not ready for extra budgetary expenditure. Which is a lesson in fiscal discipline for all African nations which use presidential fiat to exceed their budgets and fly in money on presidential jets to pay footballers who refuse to play at semi final or finals of CAF Competitions as our Super Eagles have done several times in recent times. Incidentally Angola too is awash in oil like Nigeria but is using our tragedy in mismanaging our oil wealth as a lesson and lamp post not to repeat our mistakes. As for the Moroccans I am happy CAF has expelled them from the 2015 edition they have dropped because of Ebola. Which I think is racist and shows that African solidarity is a sham with North African Arabs who only tolerate Africans outside their nations and maltreat those inside especially those migrating to Europe in recent times. CAF should censure such nations seriously and expel them like they have done to Morocco to show that a friend indeed, should be a friend in need.

I seek refuge in William Shakespeare’s play Henry V in my musings and analysis today and the reason is not far fetched. Henry V is a war story of the Battle of Agincourt that chronicled the leadership qualities of a young English king who led his small number of troops to a great victory over the French army which vastly outnumbered the bedraggled English soldiers. Henry rallied his troops by telling them – ‘the fewer we are, the greater the share of honour‘. He told them pointedly – ‘ In peace there is nothing so befits a man as modest stillness and humility. But when the blast of war blow s in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger. It is Henry’s leadership qualities that interest me today and his effectiveness as a war leader who led his people to victory against great odds in his time. The young English monarch showed commitment, honesty, courage and integrity in leading his troops to victory in spite of the numbers against them. He did not lie to them. He did not abandon them. He raised their morale and lifted their spirit to a heroic performance that led to victory. These are the values that have made the story of the Battle of Agincourt one of the best of Shakespeare’s historical plays and indeed my favourite after Julius Caesar. Sadly though, these same values are clearly lacking in Nigerian politics and leadership today especially as we go to the 2015 elections. This has been made more glaring in the reckless statement credited to a presidential spokesman that no President resigns during a war and comparing the situation in Nigeria now to that of former President George Bush in 2001 when Al Qada struck the Twin Towers of New York and the Pentagon, and the US president declared the global war on terror.

Obviously the presidential spokesman missed the point and went on to hurl abuses on the opposition as charlatans and anarchists. His reaction was a simple piece of irritable illogicality because he mistook the shadow for the substance thereby committing a laughable fallacy. He said ‘no president resigns in the middle of a war’. The opposition said the president should resign because he could not contain the insurgency thus endangering the security and territorial integrity of Nigeria. The president has not declared war on Boko Haram. He sees it as an affordable insurgency. That explained why he could go to Burkina Fasso during the week on behalf of the African Union to ask the army there not to take over . While Boko Haram during the same week was giving a new name of City of Islam to captured Mubi in Adamawa state and City of Wisdom to Gwoza in Borno State, in the beleaguered North East of Nigeria where Boko Haram is busy creating caliphates with impunity.

In the uninformed reference to George Bush and 9/11, some corrections have to made apparent to the presidential spokesman. After 9/11 George Bush sought and got the mandate of the US Congress to go to war. He told the American people – Whether we bring our enemies to justice or bring justice to our enemies, justice will be served. And the American people gave him the blank cheque to pursue the war against Al Qada and terrorism. The war on terror made George Bush one of the most powerful presidents in US history because it gave him back some powers which the Watergate and Mona Lewinsky scandals had eroded during the Nixon and Bill Clinton presidencies. Indeed the war on terror boosted George Bush’s 2004 re election campaign mightily such that he defeated Democratic candidate John Kerry with a massive majority. Yet, this was the same George Bush that barely defeated Al Gore but for the Florida recount and the US Supreme Court decision to stop it in his first election in 2000. If the war on terror boosted George Bush’s re election bid in 2004 can the same be said of the current re election bid of our President given the handling of Boko Haram just over a quarter to our presidential elections in February 2015?. Definitely not. This is because re election should be based on performance on several sectors of the economy and given the results on power or electricity availability, security, employment and jobs for our teeming graduates we are definitely not out of the woods. The example of Francois Hollande the French President is educative here when he said this week in an interview in France that he would not seek re election in 2017 if the figures on employment have not improved. This was because, according to him, he promised in 2012 when he was elected that he would provide more jobs and that he would not be able to face the French people and seek re election in 2017 if he had not fulfilled his electoral pledge that secured his election. He therefore promised to work hard to improve the employment situation in France so that he can be a credible and electable candidate for re election in 2017.

Really the French president’s candour reminds me of Henry V although it was the French Dauphin, his countryman that Henry defeated and showed such equally admirable candour and honesty in so doing. At home too, two Nigerian leaders have shown leadership values and qualities that have gripped my attention and both have presidential ambitions. They are former Vice President Abubakar Atiku and present Governor of Kano State Engineer Rabiu Kwankwaso. Both to me are good presidential candidates provided they can win the primaries of the APC. But I look at them in terms of their records of performance and their environmental and political relevance in their catchment areas to see how electable they are as potential presidents of Nigeria. Let me say that I am using some statements in the media this week on both leaders to buttress my assertions on both candidates.

Former VP Atiku showed great sympathy and empathy for the plight of Nigerians in the North East of Nigeria under Boko Haram and warned Nigerians that what is happening there could spread to the rest of Nigeria if care is not taken. That is great insight from some one who should know, given his antecedents in power in this nation before. But those who live in glass houses should not throw stones. The former VP is best remembered for his disputes with his former boss while in office leading to litigation right up to the Supreme Court which made even his eligibility to contest the presidential election too late to be effective when the apex court eventually cleared him. This time again he bears another huge albatross or excess luggage in terms of his locality or political catchment area which is Adamawa State, which for now is a war zone. Atiku himself reportedly said recently that Boko Haram controls 16 local governments in the North East. The state Governor Bala Ngillari at Aso Rock this week confessed that they need more troops to secure the state and he sounded really panicky. One can ask almost rhetorically- can elections be held in Adamawa state today?. If the former VP can answer that question in the affirmative then he should continue his quest for the presidency. Otherwise he should close shop on his presidential bid for now.

In contrast the present Governor of Kano State Rabiu Kwankwanso’s presidential quest catches my fancy not only because of the red colour of his entourage’s caps but for his guts, courage and record of performance in office. He had been governor in Kano before and was the nation’s Defence Minister sometime ago. So at least he has relevant experience in terms of our Defence and security in the ‘middle of a war‘ as the presidency would say. But I first noticed his love for education when I stumbled on a programme the Kano State government conducted for indigenes of the state sent off after being given scholarships to a university in Ogun State. Before that I has read a fiery interview in which he said that some leaders were just waiting for the incumbent president to declare for his re election before knowing what to do next. I think his presidential bid is the answer to that.

In addition his courage and guts are shown in the way he has executed his programme for educating girls in Kano State in spite of the cruel and bloody aversion of Boko Haram to this which has made Kano a ready target for the murderous Islamic group. In addition his presidential bid programme mentioned boldly that he banned Okada in Kano State which is a bold and audacious move by any Nigerian leader given the potential nuisance value of that means of transportation amongst the masses of this nation. Okada is well known hindrance to meaningful economic development in spite of its mass appeal which has made less courageous leaders and governors to turn a blind eye to the Okada danger and menace in our streets and cities. Kwankwanso has demonstrated successfully that he can take brave decisions in a volatile environment like Kano and I do not see why he can not replicate that at Aso Rock for the benefit of Nigeria. His governorship seat gives him great leverage to give front runners like former General Muhammed a run for their money in the APC primaries. He certainly reminds me of Bill Clinton and his bid for the US Presidency from his Governorship of little Arkansas state. Except perhaps that relatively in Nigeria, Kano State is a bigger proposition than Arkansas in the US. Which really shows that Kwankwanso has the means and clout to make him electable as a President of Nigeria. I tremble therefore for those in his party or anywhere else who do not take his candidacy seriously. This Engineer Governor certainly has what it takes to confront our present war and insurgency such that no one will ever think of asking him to resign ‘in the middle of a war ‘. Again, like the Presidency would or has indeed said, of our present predicament.

I read  with concern and great  interest  the news of the assurance that Senate President David Mark  gave to a delegation of the EU that Nigeria will come out of the present Boko  Haram insurgency stronger  and that our 2015 elections will be fairer  because our institutions are better and Nigerians have become used to the processes of democracy.  That really is how leaders  should talk to strangers who can be of help on various issues in and outside the nation especially on the simple matter that we can still not find the over 200 missing Chibok girlseven as the ruling party, the  PDP gave a blank cheque to the president to be its sole candidate in the 2015  elections. Just as it also endorsed its first time governors with automatic tickets for the governorship elections of 2015. Obviously to our distinguished Senate President,  the ruling party,  and the President of the Republic,  insurgency and elections are mutually  exclusive issues. Which means that they are  independent of each other.  Or that one can do without the other That really  is where  I beg to disagree – and saying  how and why I do this, is the kernel of discussion today. I have no doubt in my mind that the Senate President, the ruling party  and especially President Goodluck Jonathan must have a robust  political strategy for containing the Boko Haram insurgency and  conducting ahitch free,  rigging free  elections through  INEC in 2015. I do not for now expect them or the PDP to divulge such a strategy so as not to give ammunition to the Opposition to attack or subvert it. But then I want to share  with them some knowledge and theories on the principle of Strategic Management, beginning with a basic definition of a strategy.  The definition says that a strategy is a plan, a pattern, a perspective, a position and a ploy and that a strategy is inseparable from its environment. It is to these five Ps of Strategy that I want the leadership of the ruling Party  to address  their great minds to see if they know what they are doing in steering our ship of state in the direction  that says clearly that globalsecurity, our  insurgency and the coming 2015  elections can exist in isolation of each other.  On my part I will show here,  with examples of events and global news, this last week, why I think they should not go in thisdirection as  it is very dangerous.  Given the state of our insurgency  and the fact that the Boko Haram has reportedly  seized Mubi where I served as a youth corp while the government was said to be negotiating the release  of the over 200 abducted Chibok girls with expectation rising over their release  this week, one could say that there  was nothing cheerful about this insurgency  and our management of it, at least on our own soil. But worse news came from abroad,  from France to be precise,  to show that global security is being threatened  and the threat  is really  not far from hitting our shores  very soon, if care  is not taken. The news is that drones  have been buzzing or circling the nuclear facilities,  at least five of them, that provide 75%  of the electricity that France uses. Drones are  unmanned aircraft and  the French government – owned EDF France at first thought that Greenpeace  the anti nuclear, pro  environment,  global institution was responsible but Greenpeace  has vehemently deniedthis claiming that it is transparent  in all its activities and accusing the French  authorities of negligence on the matter. The buzzing have been reported  between October 5 and 20 but EDF said that the drones  were  of little sizes available commercially  and have little security threat. The  French  government has nevertheless started inquiries on the sighting of thebuzzing.

Which really is commendable when  you realise that drones are the effective weapons being used  in Afghanistan and Pakistan against terrorist  groups such as Taliban  and Al  Qada and are an integral part  of the air strikes against Islamic State in Syria, Iraq and Kobani. I find the way Greenpeace  has reacted  fascinating, proactive  and thoughtful. Greenpeace saw the security implications of the buzzing clearly and the possibility or potential of its being wrongly  given a bad namein order to hang it,  if something nasty happens later,  givenits well known stance against the use of nuclear power to generate electricity anywhere  in the world because of its harmful effect  on the environment.  In blaming EDF so clearly and pointedly, Greenpeace  was also salvaging its imagethat it is not a terrorist  organisation  in its quest to preserve the environment globally. Anyway  the French  government has launched an inquiry into EDF negligence on the drone buzzing of the French  nuclear facilities.

The implications of a blow up of French  nuclear facilities which supply almost all its electricity and power is better imagined than stated here but  are  nevertheless of concern to us today. This  enables us to look far and beyond the nuclear facility buzzing in France itself and to see role  of France especially in the war against terrorism  in Francophone Africa and the Sahel which the North East of Nigeria belongs andwhich is where  the Boko Haram is creating caliphates with impunity.  In a world in which a Malaysian aircraft  carrying over 200 people can literally disappear from  the skies and not be found till now, in spite all the modern technology  available, the drone buzzing  of the nuclear facilities in France should not be casually dismissed like the French power authorities did. Similarly the fact that the over 200 Chibok girls are still missing  should make us ponder on any strangehappenings in our global environment.

This is especially pertinent and relevant,  given France’s role  in saving Mali from the  Tuaregs  and Islamist militants who invaded that nation and providing stability while ECOWAS leaders were not sure  of what to do to save Mali at the time. It is also significant that France still maintains close ties with its former colonies of which three  of them Niger, Chad and Cameroon  share  borders  with our troubled North  East. Indeed the news that the Chibok girls were to be freed this week centred  on negotiations going on reportedly  brokered by the President of Niger Republic  in the capital, Niamey. It therefore  goes without saying that France is a legitimateand potential target  from the perspective of Boko  Haram and their foreign partners and sponsors for an  attack, indeed anyattack, especially one that can cripple its electricity supply and wipe its people off the face of the earth with  nuclear bombast from hostile  drones. When  and if that happens to France,there  is no doubt that it will put its extra territorial concern for Islamist terrorists  at bay and put its house in order first as no one goes to sleep while its house is on fire.  Which definitely will give Boko Haram a free  rein  to establish more caliphates in our North East to strengthen the saying  that when the cat is not at home mice will play.

We have looked so far to France so that we can see our position on the ground at  home very clearly over the management of the Boko Haram horror  and the peaceful conduct of our coming elections. So far I have illustrated strategy as a plan, a pattern, a perspective and a position using France’sEDF, Greenpeace  and France’s role  on terrorism  in Africa as convenient signposts. Now I want to use our leadership role in managing both Boko Haram and the 2015 elections as a ploy to give Nigerians peace of mind in making a success of both. To  me the recipe  is clear and that is to carry the fight toBoko Haram and finish it off  before the elections. Aggression is needed in this regard  both on the political terrain and the military front. All  hands need to be on board  including theopposition looking to wrest  power from the ruling Party as  a conducive environment is  needed if the competition for power is to be on a level playing field. Definitely the government cannot do it alone.

I recommend  therefore, the strategy of the Israelis in the 1967 Six Days War  with the Arabs.  According to Moshe Dayan the famous Israeli war strategist, attack was the best form of defence. According to  Moshe Dayan – ‘We  had aggression flowing in our veins and blood. The Israeli air force pre emptively attacked the Egyptian air planes on the ground and crippled them successfully to win the war in just six days.Why can we not do the same in Six days to Boko Haram? This is really  what we need to do to really  believe what the Senate President  told the visiting EU delegation on our insurgency and elections. This is no wishful thinking . This is whatthe President and Commander  in Chief should order his troops to  do, to justify his not paying a kobo to get the form to contest for his party, while giving all of us a run for our money in terms of patience and security over the insurgency and the coming elections.

TONY Blair was the Prime Minister of the UK from 1997 to 2007 and won three consecutive elections in 1997, 2001 and 2005 albeit with a reduced majority in the last one, when the British electorate was by then disenchanted with him in spite of his popularity.

The reasons for that disenchantment as well as his reaction to it form the basis of our discussions here on this topic. Today, I use the benefit of hindsight on Tony Blair’s fall from political grace to grass and his struggle to preserve his legacy, singularly ruined by the invasion of Iraq in 2003 with the US President George Bush, to assess the use or misuse of religion to stoke the embers of resentment and prejudices which are really uncalled for in a normally or constitutionally secular state like Nigeria and the UK which incidentally was our former colonial master.

Let me state categorically that I am an unrepentant admirer of Tony Blair and George Bush for their reaction to 9/11 and the subsequent global war on terror from 2001. I regard both as strong leaders that history, sooner than later, will vindicate even though the Islamist violence of beheading human beings nowadays could be traced to their actions and inactions on the manner they prosecuted the global war on terror.

Today however I want to use the sincerity of leaders as a litmus test of their quality of leadership and performance by taking them up on their utterances and actions in such a way that one can see whether they mean what they say or are just taking their people or followers for a ride. Which in a way can mean that they are either talking from both sides of their mouth or are being deliberately fuzzy or ambiguous with their utterances and actions in order to befuddle their audience. I deal with three clear examples of what I have in mind on religion .

First was the announcement that the President of the Republic has finally accepted the offer of the ruling party, the PDP to contest the 2015 elections but he would be proceeding to Jerusalem this weekend to perform a pilgrimage and would be back in the country by Monday. President Goodluck Jonathan’s intention to contest for re election must be the most open secret in Nigeria’s political history.

Yet he called it an offer from the party for which he is grateful. His pilgrimage therefore is an act of gratitude to God in Jerusalem from where he will come back refreshed to face the rigors of a campaign which in its undeclared and unaccepted form had gulped up millions of naira in terms of funding for thousands of groups and caucuses that know ‘who the cap fits’ and media costs for banners, posters, bill boards that have heralded the much expected offer to a willing candidate seeking re election. The second example was the bold headline this week that said in some newspapers that Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun state ‘supports‘ Jihad but ‘condemns’ Boko Haram.

The initial reaction to this headline is that the Governor was involved in a war of ‘irreconcilable differences‘ as Jihadists are Boko Haram and Boko Haram are unrepentant jihadists. That the Governor was chewing much more than he could bite will be the impression you would go away with if you did not read the story but left with the impression created by the headline.

The story however was a far cry from the headline. The story was that at a lecture series- the Femi Okunnu Lecture Series of the Law Students Society of the Obafemi Awolowo University – Governor Aregbesola defined the concept of Jihad as an Islamic concept that preached being at peace with God and that the concept has nothing to do with violence and killing and maiming of innocent people and children like Boko Haram had done and is still doing in Nigeria.

This was a bold move by a Nigerian leader who has never hidden his Muslim credentials even when it diminished his political capital and goodwill in doing so at least in his state. That was glaring in the fierce and grim political battle he fought for his political life in the last election in his state. One wonders if more leaders in Nigeria especially from the North had come out to say what the Osun state Governor had said, what would have been the state of the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria today?.

Really such denunciation and conceptual analysis earlier on would have made Boko Haram a thing of the past in our national life by now. Instead, most religious leaders and adherents in Nigeria turned a blind eye to the rise of the Boko Haram horror as if it was unethical to condemn it, even when it was obvious it was bringing opprobrium on Islam in Nigeria and globally.

Now the Osun state Governor has belled the cat philosophically, logically and conceptually and has separated the wheat from the chaff for Islam, even though his first calling as Governor is to be secular. But then as the Yorubas say, it is not who killed the snake that mattered but that the snake was dead. To me, Governor Aregbesola’s conceptual analysis of Jihad sounds the death knell of Boko Haram in Nigeria. That analysis should be sermonised and made to reverberates in all our educational institutions, mosques and churches in the interest of our collective security, peace and unity.

The third example was the news item that said that the Federal government is not giving secret funds to PDP governors to run their states in the run up to the 2015 elections. The denials were from the governors of Nasarawa and Plateau states and given the usual religious divide in Nigeria one is conveniently from a dominantly Muslim state while the other is from a predominantly Christian one. Again a kite is being flown for a mischievous and undisguised purpose. Obviously the ruling party is suffering some political compunction given the way it has used federal might to run some elections in states it considered hostile turf in recent times.

The governors even had the temerity to offer counselling to non PDP governors. It asked them to galvanize their internal revenue generation machinery instead of waiting for their state allocations from the Federal government in Abuja. As if this advice is not applicable to PDP states. Obviously there is a missing link of sincerity in this jigsaw puzzle of unsolicited advice from the zone of comfort that the PDP governors find themselves relative to opposition governors as we approach this watershed election of 2015.

Let me round up with the Tony Blair analogy on the eve of his third election victory in 2005 when the Iraqi invasion and the non availability of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq had turned the invasion into a huge lie and made a spin doctor of a hitherto credible Prime Minister. An analysis in the Economist at that time put Tony Blair’s fate quite succinctly.

It noted that sincerity was the essence of success in any endeavour especially politics. Even if the sincerirty was faked success was still guaranteed. In Tony Blair’s case it noted however that the British public and electorate found out that he was deceiving them but justice was served nevertheless. This was because when he stopped faking and became sincere they never believed him again. Hence the much reduced parliamentary majority in the 2005 elections when the issue became when he would quit and hand over to his eventual successor Gordon Brown.

Unbelievably the Tony Blair spin saga ended on a religious note. Having been discredited in terms of credibility by the anti Iraq invasion, anti war lobby in his nation and the EU, the former British PM had his own back in the corridors of power in the Vatican. Tony Blair, whose wife was a well known Catholic took his family to the Pope in Rome, Italy and converted to Catholicism.

Thus turning his back as it were on the Church of England where it was unthinkable at one time to contemplate or consider any politician who was non Anglican for the high post of Her Majesty’s Prime Minister, a post he held for 10 years. That to me was vintage retribution to the anti war lobby for the image of spin which has stuck like a bug to the Tony Blair legacy ever since. That again sums up how sincerity in and out of office may affect political success especially where religion the timeless opium of the masses, is concerned.