The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Nigeria’s vote for experience and pragmatism

    I do not normally refer to my previous write ups in my columns but my column of March 21, a week before our presidential elections of March 28 was quite clairvoyant even though I am saying it myself. The title was; Elections as Nemesis for Corruption and Performance ‘ and the results   of the presidential election simply reflected that . I concluded thus in that essay – ‘’ So in Brazil the reelected president is demonstrating zero tolerance for corruption in spite of the fact that her party was known to be corrupt and got elected anyway. But the saving grace for her was her reputation for integrity and the trust of the Brazilian people. Next week Nigerians will decide the fate of their president on a similar plate and it remains to be seen how he will fair with the wind of change blowing in opposite direction of his performance and record of fighting corruption during his tenure. ‘’

    From that conclusion on March 21 one can say that the Nigerian people have spoken and sealed the fate of their president decisively on March 28 by voting him out of office on that day. Similarly they have chosen a president elect like the Brazilian president who has a reputation for integrity and is someone they trust at this point in time in our history – and that is retired General Muhammadu Buhari – GMB henceforth. The topic of today flows naturally from my column of March 21 with election positioned as nemesis for performance and corruption to that of the presidential election day on March 28 titled ‘Famous Elections and Today’s presidential elections. ‘

    This is because Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election result in choosing GMB as president over the incumbent president was Nigerians payback time for the poor performance in office by a president who also suffered defeat because he had no knack or clue on fighting corruption. The incumbent   president’s dismal record on both   provided     good fodder for the GMB canon to blow his reelection   chances   to smithereens as the results show.

    Consequently today’s topic evolved from this scenario and background of an election in Nigeria in the midst of an insurgency that has single handedly destroyed Nigeria’s hard earned sovereign reputation as a nation of peaceful people. A reputation now supplanted by the odious terrorism of Boko Haram which even those raised in a terror ridden environment like Israel’s newly elected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu   have compared infamously to global terrorist Islamist organization Al Qada. So in electing GMB as their next president I say Nigerians voted pragmatically for their   common sanity, collective peace of mind and their political life as a nation and a people with hope in a better tomorrow.

    I usually cite   a British example when I write about political stability of the type that the March 28 presidential elections has brought to our corruption and insurgency plagued political system. That is the saying that : ‘’ with the Queen   in Buckingham Palace every Briton sleeps well in his bed ‘’. Again I say boldly and proudly and with thanks to the Almighty God that – with the election of GMB as president on March 28 and the swift concession of defeat by the incumbent president even before INEC announced the election results formally, every Nigerian,   or majority at least   slept well in his or her bed.

    Let us now do an initial coroner’s inquest into the demise of the Jonathan presidency   to see the path to the emergence of GMB as our president elect. In doing this let me make some observations in tandem with my last three columns on our then impending presidential elections. The first is that the presidential election of March 28 has globally become a famous election in its own right given the global interest, concern for Nigeria’s stability and security , and the media coverage of it.

    The second is that the two presidential candidates, both the victor and the vanquished have earned the appellation usually reserved for politicians and leaders who rise above pettiness and partisanship to act in the larger and salutary public interest. They have become statesmen in their own right in the eyes of the world. The incumbent, the loser, earned this by his unhesitant and sportsmanlike concession of defeat . The victor, GMB by the appeal and inspiration in his acceptance speech titled – ‘’   The Die Is Cast ‘’ in which he asked all Nigerians to have faith and trust in his election as he has no malice against anyone including his political opponents and that indeed all Nigerians should sleep peacefully in their beds as he will deal fairly and firmly as he promised, with one and all.

    Incidentally the theme of my write up last week was The Die Is Cast in which I dilated on the Ides of March in Shakespeare’s tragedy Julius Caesar and prayed that the March 28 presidential elections will not end in a tragedy as it did for the slain Roman Emperor. Definitely God has answered that prayer and you can excuse my unbelievable joy at the title of the president elect’s speech – the die is cast. Which with all humility means I can claim some telepathy with our incoming president. Surely one can say that better days are ahead in this new dispensation.

    I have already stated why Nigerians voted out the Jonathan presidency and why they voted in GMB. The president elect is however the Man of the Moment in this piece and it is necessary to dissect his promise and prospects in the leadership of our nation for the next four years at least. He brings immense experience to the office of president being the second Nigerian to have served both as a military head of state and an elected democratic president. Hitherto only OBJ had that singular honor although what he made of that should never be made a compass or guide for our new president elect. Indeed he should distance himself from that administration’s legacy and should only use it to know pitfalls he must avoid if his administration is not   to   lose the love of Nigerians which his election has given him on a platter of gold. A good analogy on this is the famous statement credited to a former president of Ghana when it was reported that oil has been discovered in commercial quantities in that nation. The Ghanaian president said very carefully then that while oil is a blessing Ghana will make sure that its discovery will not be a curse as it is for Nigeria.

    Secondly the election of GMB has catapulted him from a serial presidential loser to a charismatic leader with a salvation army goal of salvaging the soul of the Nigerian nation. He has been elected at an advanced age and will not be overwhelmed with sycophants and praise singers who imprisoned his predecessor in Aso Rock while they pursued their selfish Washington Concensus economic goals and IMF conditionalities that ruined our economy and earned the administration the hatred and hostility of Nigerians translated into the defeat of March 28.

    GMB comes into office with confidence and boldness given his antecedents and military training now conditioned by previous electoral defeats now crowned with the success of March 28. He knows destiny, collective will and political alliances made his election possible and acknowledged as much in his first interview with the famous but often brash CNN reporter Amanpour who saw a different, more dignified Nigerian president elect. Quite different from the one she used to take to the cleaners on credibility and half truths in recent times before a world audience to the pain and agony of watching, patriotic Nigerians.

    For now Nigerians have heaved a sigh of relief on a successful election of a new president and a new lease of life for our distressed and insurgency beleaguered nation. We pray that the cap fits GMB as he begins his onerous task of cleaning our Augean stables. Nigerians believe he can do it firmly and boldly given his experience and reputation . The ball is in his court and the same ball is at his feet. For now all Nigerians stand up for him as they chanted in that famous DSTV commercial; ‘’Stand up for the Champion, Stand up’’ – God bless Nigeria, Amen.

  • Famous elections and today’s presidential elections

    It  is difficult  not  to tremble at  the prospects  of today’s presidential  election given  the truculence  of the campaign leading to  today  and  the no  love lost political  combat between  the two political  gladiators and their  political  parties. For  the two major  presidential  contestants namely  President  Goodluck  Jonathan seeking  relection  and his challenger retired General  Mohammadu Buhari one  can say  that  indeed  the sky  is  cast.  Like  the famous  Roman  Emperor Julius  Caesar said  to the Soothsayer  who warned  him about the Ides of March that  it  has come, one  can recall  the soothsayer’s  famous retort that the    indeed the ides of  March  has come today March  28, but  it has not gone.  Given that perspective    from that famous  Shakespeare  play  Julius Caesar, today  is    therefore  Nigeria’s  longest  day  and for  now  one  can  only pray  that it ends well  with  a free  and fair  election. And    certainly        not  like  the tragedy  that claimed  the  great Caesar  when  his friends and colleagues murdered him at the steps  of the Capitol  and carved him out with  their daggers  like  a ‘dish  fit  for  the gods‘ on  the  Ides  of March  as predicted by the  Soothsayer. So  firstly  I pray  that today’s  election will  not  be  Nigeria’s  Ides  of  March.

    Secondly  there  is palpable  apprehension  and  anxiety  in the land over  today’s  election and  again  one  must  go back to ancient Rome and  the wicked arena where gladiators  fight lions  and wild animals  to  death to  capture  the  mood  of the nation today.  In those  dark days and in such bloody  spectacle  applauded  loudly  by the Roman  mobs in the arena  the  gladiators saluted  those enjoying  and awaiting their demise by  saying  – We  who  about  to die  salute  you.  Nowadays  no  presidential  candidate is expected  to  say    or  anything  near it    in modern,  civilized politics. But given  the vitriol  of  the  language  and hatred  of the campaign leading  to today’s  presidential  election,  worse have  been said  one way  or the other.

    It  is in this  mood on a  day that will  not wait but  must  yield an election  result  that  hope fully  will  be peaceful  and acceptable that  I  share some insights  and thoughts  on some  past elections that have been  momentous  and historical  given  their context  of  controversy similar  to  what we are witnessing in today’s  presidential elections. The  first  is the  reelection of the 33rd  US President  Harry  Truman when  he defeated his opponent  John  Dewey unexpectedly  and unbelievably  too given  the popularity  of  Dewey in those days. The second    was  the 1979 presidential  elections in  Nigeria  in  which  President  Shehu Shagari  of the NPN  defeated Chief  Obafemi  Awolowo  of  the UPN in an election  midwifed  by the  Military  regime  of former  General Olusegun  Obasanjo  which was  following  the global  trend  then  of military  dictatorships  handing over power  to elected  civilian democracies. The  third was  the election  of the  43rd president of the US  George  Bush Jnr in 2000 when  he defeated Bill  Clinton’s Vice  President  Al  Gore in  a close finish presidential  election decided  by the Florida  recount.

    Starting with the re election  of Harry  Truman  in  1948  what  I found  fascinating  was a picture of  the re elected  president  in an encyclopedia  holding    a newspaper  with  the headline ‘Dewey Wins‘  when  in  fact  Dewey  lost  the  election. The  story  was that the newspaper in  question  was so certain  of  Dewey’s victory  that it  printed  and circulated its  night  edition  whereas overnight  and after  full  counting it was Harry  Truman that  won the election  and  got  elected. Truman had before that election been appointed  Vice  President by President  Franklin  Delano Roosevelt who  died  in  1945.  Truman  completed  the Second  World  War victoriously, dropped  the atomic bomb  on  Hiroshima  and Nagasaki in  Japan  and started  the  reconstruction  of Europe after the  war    with  the  Marshall  Plan.

    The  second  famous  election  was the election  of President  Shehu Shagari  who  defeated Chief  Obafemi  Awolowo  in  an election in which  the UPN  sage  refused  to  accept  the  result because  many Nigerians  thought  he won. The  reasons  were  not far fetched. The military  umpire  and  then  Head of State  had said earlier that the best runner  may  not win the race and it was obvious to  any  or all Nigerians  that the best  runner then  and ever since in  Nigerian politics is the great  Awo  who  remains  immortal  in terms of the standards and insight  he brought to politics and governance  in Nigeria. Indeed at a ceremony  to meet the contestants after the disputed election  conducted by the military junta of Obasanjo Chief Awolowo was  pictured with a bandaged  hand  which  prevented him from shaking  hands  with  the purported  winner  of the 1979 election  Alhaji  Shehu  Shagari.  The  announced  loser  in that election Chief  Awolowo  later  told young  Nigerians then  that ‘some of you  will not see democracy in your life time‘. That  has proven very prophetic  given the type  of democracy  we have grown for  ourselves  leading to today’s  do or die election that  gives one the goose  pimples  just  thinking  of the aftermath of  the election  results.

    The  third  famous election to  muse  over and pass  the day  today was that of the election of George  Bush as the 43rd  US  president.

    That  result  too  was close and  unexpected because  Al  Gore  had done well as Bill Clinton’s  Vice  President  for two  terms  of eight years. Clinton  had been a popular  president in spite of the Monica Lewinsky  scandal  that  marred  his administration. What ultimately  ruined  Al  Gore’s  chances  of succeeding him was the decision by the Al  Gore  Campaign team  to distance itself  from the Clinton era  because  of the Lewinsky  scandal a decision which turned  out  to be a  mis judgement  because  the American  public had  not  only  forgiven  Clinton but it was enraptured  with his charisma. Avoiding  Clinton  and going solo  cost Al  Gore the presidency  in that election which was  highly  controversial and in which at first Al  Gore refused  to concede  defeat. George  Bush was lucky in that the last state results came from Florida where his brother  was governor  and the recount favored  Bush  predictably.

    Even  then  Bush  had to claim  victory      based  on  a  upreme Courta  decision  which  also  favored George  Bush. In  effect  then  we  can see  that there have  been many antecedents  of the  electoral  process we  confront  today  and in spite  of the problems they faced issues  were  resolved  peacefully and  the electoral  verdict  stood  as announced and  accepted at the end  of the day. That  is all we  need at the end  of the day  today as  I wish  Nigerians  happy  voting in this March 28  presidential elections.

  • Elections as nemesis for performance and corruption

    Next  Saturday  Nigerians  who  have  the required  PVCs  will  troop  out to  vote  in the 2015  presidential  elections while those who  don’t  have them brood disconsolately  in their  homes at their disenfranchisement.  This  is  the hard  fact and no matter  how much those who have PVCs  gloat  at the opportunity to vote  the  fact that those who cannot vote  because they don’t have them did not put themselves  in that  situation.  They  are  just  victims  of INEC’s  incompetence and inefficiency  in insisting that some Nigerians  cannot vote  because the  computer  used  for  the registration  of their  PVCs  in  2011  is bad  and  only those  who  register in  in  2014  can  have PVCs  for  the 2015  election.

    I  find  that totally  unacceptable  even though  I know  such  disenfranchised  people are  in their millions  and  have resigned themselves  to their fate because  politicians  and  political  parties have  politicized and  polluted the issue of glaring and manifest  INEC  incompetence in this election such  that it is like  barking at the moon  to provide remedy  for such disenfranchised  Nigerians. It  is  particularly  painful  that  INEC’s callous  indifference  to the plight  of  such  disenfranchised  Nigerians gave  rise  to the call  for the removal  of its boss Professor Attahiru  Jega  which  has led to a do or die duel  in the polity as the matter  has become personalized  and politicized  about  his headship of the electoral  body. Whereas  in any civilized  community    he would  have thrown  in the towel  for lack  of capacity or  shown   the way  out for  palpable mendacity in    saying  he  was  ready  for  the  postponed 2015  Valentine Day’s   election  when indeed he  was  not  and would  later in smug    relief  tell  the National  Assembly  unbelievably   that the postponement  was  a blessing. Definitely I am  one  Nigerian  who has  lost  faith  in the capacity  of INEC  to  conduct a free and fair  election in our 2015  elections starting next week  on  March 28.

    Let  me  state  that I am  aware  that some  politicians  have said that  that INEC made cards available and potential  voters did not  just collect their cards and that is not the fault  of INEC. That  again  is not tenable  or plausible. Why  would voters not want to collect their  PVCs? Frustration in not getting them on deliberate visits to registration sites is one  reason. The second  is the dismay  of seeing so  many  cards  for your area lying unclaimed while a leering INEC  official  tells you casually that  your name  is not amongst  the huge  lumps  of unclaimed  PVCs  in your area. Such  blatant disenfranchisement is  going to be read as voters apathy by observers in this election. But   I call  it induced or inadvertent  apathy as distinct  from real apathy  when  for whatever reasons   registered  voters  don’t want  to vote or be  involved in the electoral  process  for  personal  reasons.

    Yet  elections  provide a great  opportunity  for  voters to exercise  their  democratic rights and reward  performance while  admonishing governance  sloppiness and failure  to fulfill election promises  by voting  out such  errant incumbents or leaders  out  of office. It  therefore  follows that any political system worth its salt and mindful  of its stability should  make the creation  and  entrenchment  of an enabling  environment  for voters and  potential  voters  to  exercise  their  voting  rights  its priority   or  open itself  to  charges  of  electoral  fraud  or  manipulation  even  before  elections take  place.

    Again, elections such as the ones we embark  on  next  week  provide  the litmus  test  to authenticate or fault  any  democracy and ours  is  no exception. Up  to next  Saturday  you  can bet that the  incumbent  president  of  Nigeria will  still  be campaigning furiously  as he has  done  in the last three  months for  reelection. He has  been joined  by his wife who  has brought her own  brand  of first lady  politics to the fore to ensure  her husband  is  reelected. One  can  only  for now warn the first lady  that the wife of the former president of the Ivory  Coast  has  just  been jailed for about 21  years for post election violence in that nation after the husband  Laurent  Gbagbo  refused  to quit  the presidency when  he lost the presidential election to current Ivorian President Alasane  Ouattara. However in  spite  of the first lady’s  electioneering aggression I  do  not think the  husband  has the hunger  for power that much  to go the Gbagbo  way in case he loses  power, but it is necessary to  bring up  the issue.

    One  thing that is certain  though  is that the incumbent president is  fighting  belatedly  for his political  life in an unprecedented  manner as if he  forgot what we are discussing today. Which  is that elections are the nemesis or day of judgement to renew  or take power from those who hold it and  or  give it   out  to those with the promise to use it better  for the good and welfare  of the electorate. Certainly  from his busy  campaign  shuttle  and that of  his wife added to it, the incumbent  president  knows what is  at stake  and does  not want to lose power in  next  week’s  presidential  elections.

    On  that score the  Nigerian  president must  defend  his record  on the management  of corruption during his tenure. That  record  is dismal  to say  the least and  his many evasive  answers on the issue  have only compounded  the matter. The  example  of the  Brazilian  President  Dilmar  Roussef  who won the presidential  elections in that nation recently is  apt. She is facing calls  for  her  impeachment because the ruling Workers  Party  that brought  her  to power is facing accusations  of  corruption involving kickbacks  and bribes involving government officials   from  Petrobas the major  oil  company in Brazil  and the equivalent of our NNPC.

    The  Brazilian  president won elections in spite  of the   Petrobas  corruption  charges but  the  charges  like  a bad  dream  have resurfaced  again and  have to be addressed  by the government  and the president who  happens  to be the party  leader. It  is pertinent to mention here  that the Brazilian  president herself  has  not been implicated  on any corruption  charges even though it has been acknowledged  that the corruption started when she  was Chairman of the Board  of Petrobas before  she became  president. In  addition  President Dilmar  Roussef  has  given   her full  backing to the corruption   investigation and  has insisted that whoever is involved  in her party  no matter how highly placed  must  face the music  The  latest  casualty  has  been  the  Treasurer  of the  Workers  Party, the ruling party in Brazil.

    So  in  Brazil,  the re  elected  president is demonstrating zero  tolerance  for  corruption in spite  of the fact that her  party  was known  to be corrupt  before the election and got elected  any way. But  the saving grace for  her was her reputation  for integrity and the trust  of the Brazilian people. Next  week  Nigerians will decide the fate of their president on a similar plate and  it  remains  to be seen  how he  will  fair with  the wind  of change blowing in opposite  direction  of his performance and record  of fighting  corruption during  his tenure.

  • Politics, elections and stability

    Let  me  start     on    the   premise that  politics  when  played  by the rules  and  done  legitimately  facilitates  good  and  fair  elections  which  ultimately  lead  to  political  stability and  a peaceful  environment. It    follows  therefore  that  in  talking  about  Nigeria’s  2015  elections  and  the state  of  tension    and   friction  bothering  on  hysteria    that   we are  in     right  now  this  premise  does  not  hold  water  in  our  nation. Which  means  my assignment  on this  score today is  to  highlight  events  and issues  that give  cause  for concern  in  our polity or  indeed  any  nation,  and  constitute  serious threat  to  an    environment’s, collective  existence,  security  and   peace      of   mind.

    The  first  cause of concern was the challenge purportedly  given by  Femi  Fani  Kayode, the  Goebbels of  the  ruling  PDP to  APC  flagbearer retired  General  Muhammadu  Buhari  on  his role  in the July  29  1966  countercoup  in  which  several  Ibo  military  officers including  former  Head  of state  then  General  Aguiyi  Ironsi  and the former  governor  of the West  Colonel Kunle  Fajuyi   were  killed . The  second  was  the advice  given  to the  incumbent  president by  his  host  the  Awujale  of  Ijebuland  when  he  visited  the  Oba  to  canvass  for  his  support. The  third  is  the     CNN  interview  of  Prince  Charles  the Prince  of  Wales  and  his wife  Camilla,  the  Duchess    and  my  interpretation  of  that in terms  of political  stability of  British  democracy which  is robust  but  is still  tied  to the apron  string  of  the British  monarchy.

    The  PDP  Director  of  Communications  spoke  in  Umuahia  the heart  land  of  Igbo  land  and  he was quoted  as saying that the APC   presidential  candidate had  his hand full  with  Ibo  blood during  the coup. So  Fani  Kayode’s  speech  was well  timed  in terms  of  context and  location  for  maximum  effect.  His  goal  was  to  invoke  painful  memories  of  the coup  against  the  North  which  Buhari  represents    and  provoke  the Ibos    to  vote  against  Buhari  and  the  APC.

    This  is an act  of  incitement with  no respect  for  the history  and stability  of  Nigeria . It  shows  clearly  that the  ruling  party  is ready  to  do anything to  retain  power.  Since  the PDP  has  not  renounced  the speech and published  statement,  it shows  that the party  has  endorsed  it  and  that is dangerous  for  the  security  and political  stability  of  Nigeria.  This  is  because  coups,  military  interventions and  countercoups  and  civil  wars  are not just  ordinary  politics and once  over  should not  be  politicized  or  made  the contents  of  political  campaigns  as  Fani  Kayode  has  done  so  recklessly  and  brazenly in  Umuahia.

    Such  episodes  in the  life  of a nation  are  like  revolutions  which  Mao  said  was  politics carried  on  by other  means  principally  violence.  It  is  crass  ignorance  on the  part   of  the  PDP  Campaign  spokesman not  to  know  how to  draw  a line  on what constitute a campaign  issue.  A  coup  such as the July  29  1966  coup is certainly  not  one  and  the  PDP  should  rein  in its  Director  of  Communications  before  he  sets  the nation ablaze again on  issues  that the  costly  civil  war  we fought  have put behind  us. As  things  stand we  have enough  on our plate with  Boko  Haram  and  the conduct  of a free and fair 2015a election  without the  costly  distraction  of  the  recall   of  a    bitter  past by  a desperate  and  overzealous politician   with  no  sense  of  history and patriotism,  who  is just  eager  to  get  public   attention,  no  matter  how the way  he  does  it  affects  the stability  and  peace  of  our political  system and  polity.

    The  second  issue  was  the advice  given  by  the Awujale  to  President  Goodluck  Jonathan when  he  went to  his  palace  to campaign. The  Ijebu  monarch  told  his visitor  that it is not the duty  of an Oba  to  tell  his people  who  to  vote for. This  he said is the  right  thing not  only in Ijebuland  but in Yorubaland  generally. The  Oba  said  the duty  of an Oba  is  to guide  his  people  to  make a choice  so that they  don’t vote in those  he called  looters.  He  said  he has  called  in people  from  all  walks  of  life  in his  domain  to listen  to  the visitor  and  make  a choice and  the visitor  then  catalogued  his achievements  as usual.

    What  the  Awujale has  done   is  to  set the  enabling  environment  for  a  jus political  participation in a modern democracy   even  though  he  is  a traditional  ruler.  He  has  induced  the  spirit  of  merit and  impartiality in  both  his  subjects  and his  visitor in  one  swoop. He  has  killed  two  birds  with  one stone  in  the  process. He  has  fused  innovation  with tradition  and turned  it  into  modernity. He  has  taught  his  august  visitor  and  his powerful  entourage the political  virtues of  fairness, choice, accountability and  transparency  just with a single  campaign  visit  from  the president of the nation  on his  busy  campaign  schedule. The  Awujale’s  contribution  and  advice  should   strengthen  our political  system  and  our collective  security. Other  traditional  rulers     in    this   nation should  emulate  his sense  of fairness  and state  building from the  conduct  of elections  and  social  mobilization.

    The  third  and  last  issue  may  sound  strange  and  far fetched but  it is relevant  and  apposite  in terms  of our  topic  of  today. I  have  seen  the interview  of Prince  Charles and  his wife  Camilla on  CNN this week  and  I just could  not  resist  hazarding a guess as to why  the sudden publicity for this  virtually  forgotten royal  couple especially  as  the Jubilee Celebrations  and Royal  wedding  have  fuelled  rumours  that the  couple  or  Charles  in  particular  will  not ascend the British throne  because they were  tainted  with divorce.  I  personally  have never  agreed  with such thinking and look  forward  to seeing the day the present Prince  of Wales  will  succeed his  mother  as  King  of  England  and Camilla  as  his  Queen according  to  the British  Constitution. This  is because  of  my  colonial  experience as a youth  impressed  by the royal  family  early in life. Indeed it is what is commonly called Colonial  mentality which  I really am not bothered  about.  But  I am  impressed  with the way the  wily  British  are  preparing  the public  mind for an abdication  by the Queen  paving the way  for his  ageing  son to succeed her. It  is the fashion  nowadays as recently done  by the monarchs  in Spain  and Sweden  recently.

    Again,  I  must  end with my  favorite  quotation on British  political  stability  when ever  I  discuss  the  British  political  system.  It is  that –  ‘With  the Queen  in  Buckingham  Palace  every  Briton  sleeps well  in his bed. ‘With  the Charles  and  Camilla interview shown  globally  this week  you  must prepare  to  substitute   King  for  Queen  in  that quotation   very  soon  as I  believe  that was the purpose  of  all that  brouhaha  on Charles and  Camilla on CNN this week.

  • Postponed elections- strategies for a new race

    Our  postponed  2015  elections  have given  the governing  party some  breathing  space  and  have  not  gone  down  well  with  the opposition    which  cried  foul  at the  postponement. The  mood  on either  side    has  been  superficially  different  but  commonly suspicious.  While  APC  candidate  former retired  General  Buhari called  it  a coup  by  the ruling  party  against  the people  of Nigeria,    the opposition from  all  indications showed it  had not prepared  itself  for  a marathon  race which  the post poned elections  had  become,  but  a sprints  dash.  The  ruling  PDP  on its  part  is  using  the postponement  like  a respite  and  it  has come  out  with  biting  media  attacks  and  advertisement  aimed at  establishing    negligence  against  the  preparation  of  INEC and  its  boss Professor  Attahiru  Jega  for  the  postponed elections.  How  the two  contesting  parties are adapting to  the new  political  status  quo  of  the March 28    and  April  11  2015 election is the  topic  of discussion today.

    We  will  look  at  the  postponement  as a casualty  or  accident in which  both political  parties  were involved  in,  but  unprepared for,  and  we  shall    appraise  the  resultant effect  on  their pre  postponement  assets  and  liabilities,  to  really  appreciate their  chances  in  the new  six week  race to  get power  at  both Abuja’s  Aso  Rock  and the  36  state  capitals in  the nation. To say  that the postponement  has  not altered the chances  of either party  is to under  rate  the dynamics  of  Nigerian  politics  and to behave  like the proverbial  ostrich  with  its head  buried  in the sand. To  put it  bluntly  the  opposition  is seething  with anger at  the postponement, while  if  you  saw  the picture  of the hitherto dormant  but  now  grinning  Commander  in  Chief  with military  commanders  at  the war  front in Mubi and  Baga,  it  is apparent  that the  ruling  party is  thanking God for the postponement.  That  means while  the opposition  must overcome its frustration  at  the postponement it  should  re – strategise  and reposition itself  to be the front runner  again because  the ruling party knew  it  certainly would have lost power  if  the elections were  not  postponed. Consequently  it  would now  be ready  to use all  its resources  and the Almighty  incumbency factor  to ensure  it does  not  lose  power  easily, if ever,  again.  Therein however lies  the  most  dangerous threat  to  our volatile  democracy and the much  awaited  2015  elections.

    So,  a quotation  on the import  of the  six  weeks postponement time  is  in order    from  another  war  situation, albeit  a bigger  war,  which  is the  Second  World  War of  1939  – 1945.

    This  was  at    the    climax  of  the Allied  Invasion  of  the beaches  of  Normandy    that  finished  Hitler’s  well    prepared army  that  had  conquered  most  of  Europe  but  England.

    England’s  war  time  Prime  Minister  Winston  Churchill  had provided  the inspiration  and oratory  that fired  the English    to fight  like they were 10  times  bigger  than  the  size  of  their small  island. Hitler’s  brilliant  commander  the desert  fox Rommel told  his  secretary  while  mining  the beaches  of Normandy in  anticipation  of  the  Allied  Invasion  that eventually  came  – ‘Believe  me  Lang [  his  secretary’s name ]  the next 24  hours will  be very  decisive. The  fate  of  Germany  lies  on the beaches.  For  the Allies as  well  as  for  Germany  it shall  be the longest  day ‘. My  cue  here  is that the six  week  election postponement has  become  the longest day  for  Nigeria, its  two main  political  parties  and  the  Nigerian  electorate.  If  you think  my  historical  analogy  is  exaggerated please  hold  your breath  for  my  explanation.

    To  know  how  desperate the ruling  party  and  the incumbent president are  to  retain  power  by winning  the elections  by  all means  just  look  about  you.  At  a  recent  Federal Executive Council meeting  the Federal  government guaranteed over  $ 400m loan for APC  states Lagos, Osun, Rivers  and Ogun  states. If  that is not a Greek  gift  you  have  to  find  out  what is.  As  a deliberate  follow  up  the PDP  spokesman said  the president  is’ father  of all’ and is  not  discriminating  against  states controlled  by  the  opposing  political  party.  Yet  the real objective is  to castrate  the  opposition  before  the six  weeks postponement  expires  into  the much  expected  election.  Similarly the visit  to the  troops  by  the  Commander  In Chief  was  well timed. Why  did  the same president  and  Commander  not  pay  the same  visit before the postponement ?. Obviously  while  you  can say that the for PDP  the coming  of postponement  was    the beginning of wisdom,  the same  postponement has  become  a nightmare  for  the APC  which  by  now should have breasted  the  tape  in the now extinct  100m  dash  for  power  in  the 2015  Val  Day  election that never was.

    The  APC  too  is  not  giving  up  that easily. The  party’s candidate  has  gone overseas  to  canvass  for  support  on  the quality of  his  candidacy  and  that is not  a futile  but

    beneficial  exercise  The  issue  is  that  the way  the PDP  is going about  the vilification of  Buhari  over  his  educational qualification,  and  his purported  Islamic sympathy  for  Boko Haram  has  boomeranged  and has turned  the  former  general  into a sort  of  folk  hero.  The PDP  attack  has  been  quite personal,  abusive and  fallacious. It  has  created  the dismal situation of  leaving  the substance  of an argument and a debate and attacking  the person of the opposition  leader. In  logic, the ruling party is guilty of  the fallacy  of ad  hominem.

    If  you  add  to that the    tirade  of Ekiti  Governor  Ayo  Fayose that the APC  leader cannot  live till the election  time because  of ill  health and  that he  had  gone  overseas  for medical  treatment then  you  see  how bad  the  fear  of the opposition is of  losing power. The  Ekiti  governor  has  remained  incorrigible and recalcitrant  on  his  assertions but  it  is a posture  that has been costly  for  the ruling party    in  terms of public  goodwill  and respectability.  A  political  party  in  any  environment  must reflect  the traditional  values  of  that society  even  as it accommodates  modernity  and innovation  that  allow  for  human comfort  and progress. The  Ekiti  governor  has gone beyond  the bounds  of decency  in the way  he is attacking the APC  presidential candidate.  Inadvertently  his  morbid  hatred  has  drawn  sympathy and support  for the APC  candidate even  amongst  Yorubas  like Fayose  who  hitherto  were  not willing to have anything to do with the candidacy  of the APC candidate.  Again the  Ekiti  governor should  show restraint in  the use  of language and  decorum  because to whom  much  is given  especially  in  politics  much  is  expected.

    In  effect  then  the  two  parties  have  to  restructure  for  a marathon  election  to win power on  March  28  and  April  11.  Undoubtedly  in  terms  of funds,  the ruling party  has  the edge because  it has  not been easy  to  separate  state  funds from party funds and there  is  no  ceiling  on  campaign  funds.  Even  if there is, INEC  has more  on its plate  to  get PVCs  ready  than  to  open a pandoras  box  on  that. Yet  that does  not make it right to campaign  in  that manner  with  such  impunity.

    Public  expectation  of an end  to  the PDP government  of  perfidy is the  major political  capital and  goodwill  driving  the APC race  for  power  in this huge  marathon  of an  election.  It  is the  oil  lubricating and  sustaining the  APC  campaign  machine and for now  it is a match  for  the opulent  but vastly  unpopular quest for power  of the ruling party  nation wide. Its  strength  is what has put  the incumbent president  on the road of  political  campaign more  than any president in  our history .  But  for  the postponement this last  ditch  presidential nation wide,  criss -crossing would have been quite  late.  But  then  the  200  Chibok  girls  have  not been  found. It  is  a prize  that the incumbent would  hanker  after to swing  votes  and win  power  and I won’t  put  it beyond  him.

    But  then the  public  mind  is  largely  made up and it  is easy  to see  who is buyng time  and  who  should make change  happen . The Nigerian  public cannot  be deceived  forever  not  to talk  of  a mere  six weeks no  matter  how  long it is made to last  with our funds  and common  patrimony.

  • Bitterness,  trust and 2015 elections

    There  is  no  doubt  that  the postponement of  the February  14  and 28 ,  2015  elections  to March  28  and  April  11 has  created  a huge  political  divide  of  bitterness  and  mistrust  amongst Nigerians who  constitute  the electorate  of this great  nation. It is  a huge gulf of sharp  disagreement on the pros  and  cons  of the postponement and  tempers  run  high  on any discussion  on the postponement  depending on whether  you  are  for  it or  against  it.

    Today  I want  to do  some  fence  mending  quite  voluntarily  . Not because  I regret  any  thing  I have  written on  the  postponement for  which  I blame  INEC  for negligence and  inevitable disenfranchisement  of about  20m  Nigerians  if  the elections  had not  been  postponed,  but  because  of  the  admission  of the INEC boss  Professor  Attahiru  Jega at  his Senate appearance  this  week at  which  even  he admitted  that the post  ponement  has  been  a blessing . It  with  that  as a premise  that  I appeal  to  Nigerians especially  those    who  see  nothing wrong in  going  ahead as earlier  scheduled,  to  shield  their  hatchet  of condemnation of  the  other  side , and concentrate  on  pooling our enormous resources on  having a free  and  fair election as rescheduled  or open  themselves  to  charges  of  being more  catholic  than  the Pope  on the postponement .

    Perhaps  then  it  is with  this  background that I want  to  compare a  financially  beleaguered    nation  like  Greece that  has  used

    it  last  elections  to  position itself  against  austerity  measures  imposed  on it  because  it  borrowed  money like  Nigeria and other

    developing  nations from the IMF ,  and  in  the case  of  Greece from the EU  and  the  European  Central  Bank .  In  Greece  at their

    last election  in  January  this year  the  party    called  Syriza and  led  by  Alexis  Tspiras won    but  campaigned  on  an anti austerity agenda  to  renegotiate  Greece’s  loans  and won  the election massively  to move Greece to  the  left  politically .This has put  Greece  in direct  confrontation with  the EU and especially  Germany the  frugal and  very strong financial  member which  had  been  adamant  that the  Greeks  must  cut their  coat according  to their cloth and  swallow  the  bitter pill  of austerity  in  paying their  over due loans  and  debts However  it is in the way  that Greece’s  new  finance  Minister Yanis  Varoufakis  has been  pursuing the anti  austerity agenda against  a very  uncomfortable  and  highly  embarrassed  EU and ECB establishment  that has  caught  my  fancy . Especially  his  choice of words which can  provide succour  for us as Nigerians as we too face  an  election on which the main  issues to determine  who  to vote for are  corruption  and security . In  Greece’s  last  election the issues  were  austerity  and  corruptio. I  believe  that the issues  that  I  will  draw  out    from  the  Greeks  metamorphosis from  a  helpless  but  involuntary    austerity swallowing  nation to  an anti  austerity nation arising from a democratic  election, can  provide  some  impetus  for us  as  Nigerians ,  to  steer  our nation on a  decisive  corruption  free  and  secured  environment course,  similarly  arising ,  very  hopefully  from  the

    results  of a free and  2015  election  as  now  rescheduled.  It is  a tall  order  but  it is a possibility very  much  after  my heart . Let  me now  dissect  my admiration  of the new anti austerity  leaders  voted  into  power  against  all  odds in Greece .

    On  austerity measures  against  Greece  the  finance  minister Varoufakis  complained  that it is as if  the EU  has    decided  to place the greatest  burden  of bankruptcy  in human  history  on  the weakest shoulder  in Greece and that is the Greek  tax  payer and that is unacceptable . When  Syriza  won  the election Varoufakis said notably  that the Greeks have refused ‘to go  gently  into  the night’.  The  outcome  of the election  in  January  he said meant that the Greeks ‘ have angrily  refused  to allow anyone  to put out  their  light’.  On  the austerity  measures and loan agreements he  said  Greece  was like a customer  who  checked  out of an  hotel  but  can  never  really  leave  because  it  could  not settle  its  bill.

    The  Greek  Finance  Minister  has  since  become  a champion  of the masses  in  Greece because  of  the way  he  is brilliantly taking  on Greece’s  debtors  and  leading the way  to  renegotiate  the terms of Greece’s  loans  so  that it  does  not ruin all  Greeks

    economically  .  On the past  leaders  that brought Greece  to its present debtor status Yanis said  that  his  government  is  going to

    destroy  the  network  and  basis on which  for decades they  have sucked  the energy  and  economic  power  from  every  body  in society.

    Varoufakis  is a Marxist  Professor  of  Economics  who  has taught in Australia  and the US  before  returning to Greece  to  join  the party  that won 36%  of  the votes  to take  power  on  an anti austerity  ticket last January  . He  has  shown Greeks  and  the world  that there  can  be life outside  the IMF  conditionalities that  have ruined  nations  like Somalia and  have crippled  others fatally    and  economically  like  Nigeria. He  has shown  that nations can  renegotiate    their  debts  with  dignity  and that austerity  measures  can  have  a human  face without  the present very  high  social  costs.

    At  the outset  of the Greek  debt  crisis  I  gloated  that at  last the Europeans  were  having  a bitter  taste  of their  palliative for  repaying  debts  this  time in  the Euro  zone  their  own backyard . Varoufakis  has  shown  that the  past  and  present  fears of  the  developing world  that  IMF and  World  Bank  repayment terms were killing their  economies  were  human  and  genuine.  It  is economists  like  him that  should  run global  financial institutions  and bring debt  reliefs  that do  not cripple debtor nations  like  Nigeria  which  imported Nigerian  expatriate  World

    Bank  experts  on  austerity economics  to run and ruin our economy even  as they got paid  in hard  currency which  too  perhaps  was an  austerity  reward  for their  open  rape  of our  debtor  economy. For  now Varoufakis  had blazed  a trail in debt  renegotiation  and repayment at  low  social  costs and  I urge  Nigerians  to  take note    judiciously and  vote a party  in that reflects  that  way of running the  Nigerian  economy at the  2015  election .

    Undoubtedly  any  party  that favours the  present bunch  of Economic planners  and Coordinators  of our present prostrate  economy  should not  be allowed anywhere  near  the corridors  of power  in  Aso  Rock after  the elections.

    Again since  no less a person  than  the  INEC  boss  has  admitted that the  postponement  is  a blessing ,  one would assume  that this  is an opportunity  for  the  electoral  body  to  put  its house  in order  in terms  of getting as many as possible  PVCs  to the electorate  to maximise  voter  participation  in the elections.

    However the  scenes  or  pictures  of Nigerians  protesting on  not having  seen  or received  their  voters  cards have  multiplied  in the media  since  the postponement  .  Such  scenes  should  decline rapidly  if  INEC  fulfils  its  obligation and raise  further concern , mistrust  and distrust  of  INEC ‘s  intention  and capabilities  if they persist  too long into  the six week  relief  or postponement . In  which  case  what  has been  deemed  a blessing and accepted in  good faith as such  can  be  another  signal  for resurrecting    bitterness  and rancour.

    INEC  must  ensure that the social  capital  of trust  that the INEC boss  bought  for it  by calling the postponement a blessing  is not whittled  away by daily reports nation wide that  people  have not been  getting their  voters  cards or are  getting  them in trickles .

    That  will  erode  that trust which the INEC  boss has awakened d  and retooled  . It  is the type of trust that creates goodwill  and progress for any society especially in a  testy  election period such as this.

    It  should  not  however be allowed to degenerate to the  type  of trust that the Mafia  man  taught his son when  he took him  up a wall and asked him  to jump  down promising to catch  him when he did.

    When the son jumped the Mafia  boss  did  not catch him but allowed him  to fall. Actually what he wanted  his son  to learn is not to trust  anyone including his  family . With  these  rescheduled elections  Nigerians  need  no such  lesson  on  mistrust  and distrust . Our  rendez  vous with a free and fair  election requires that  we trust  ourselves  on  this 2015  elections and that every Nigerian  does  his or her duty  to  that effect,  especially INEC.

  • ‘Failure of logistics, weapons and morale‘

    I  write  with  relief that  the  INEC booby  trap  of  an  election slated  for  today  has  been  sprung harmlessly  without  catching any  prey  as  planned  and expected  by  the electoral  body. INEC  has  blamed  the security  chiefs for  the postponement, but in  stressing  that  and  ignoring its  own state  of  unpreparedness,  it  has  behaved  like  the proverbial  ostrich  with  its  head buried  in the sand.  For  that excuse  INEC  should  hang  its  head in  shame and  like  a chastened  dog  hide  its  tail  between its  hind  legs, for  letting  Nigeria  so  badly  down by planning  to  hold an  election  when  and where  over  20m  Nigerians were  yet  to  have  their  voters  cards.  It  was  a recipe, tailor  made  for post  election disputes on legitimacy  and  fair representation  – the very  essence  of  having elections  in  any democracy.  Again I  am  happy      that  those  that  INEC      could have disenfranchised  with  callous  impunity  and  indifference while  lying  to  the world,  now  have  a fresh  opportunity  and time  to  make INEC face  its  responsibility  squarely  and  allow them  to vote  in the rescheduled  voting  dates  of March  28  and April  11.  Let  me state  again  that  the onus  is  on INEC to prove  this  time  around that it can  conduct  a credible  free and  fair  election  in  2015 , given  the way  it has  bungled wittingly  or  not    the first  attempt  which    led  to the postponement.

    I  got  the  title  of  today’s piece  from  a BBC  interview  this week  of a Nigerian  soldier  in  the war  front  against  Boko  Haram.  At  first  I was  sceptical  about  the  motive  of BBC  thinking as usual  they  were  trying  to  put  down  the  Nigerian Army  in  its fight against Boko  Haram,  which  is  the  usual  past time nowadays    of foreign  media including  CNN  on this insurgency.

    If  that was  their  goal,  this  time they  were  disappointed. The Nigerian  soldier  bared  his mind without losing his gallantry, his  professionalism  and  especially  his patriotism.  Unidentified and  unnamed,  he  spoke in clear  baritone  in spattering English.

    He  shocked by revealing that  200  soldiers  sent as reinforcement to  his  unit  refused  to show  up and are  facing  court  martial for  this.  He  said  Boko  Haram  has  better  and  more  modern weapons than  them and are  more  in  number. That  where they  could muster about  500, Boko  Haram  had  3000  men ready. Asked  if he thought the Nigerian  Army could defeat  Boko  Haram, he  answered positively  and unhesitatingly  and stated  boldly  and  proudly.‘

    Yes,  I am  a soldier‘  and  my  heart went to  him for  the pride with  which  he said it. He  then  went to  say  that the Nigerian soldiers  fighting  don’t know  what  the problem  of  the Army  was because in  his English – ‘ Logistics fail, Weapons  fail, and Morale  fail ‘ – and  at  that  I was  almost  in tears  but  then I  decided  to  make his  pungent  and  moving lamentation,  the topic  of my essay  today.

    It  is  necessary  for  me to  say  here  and now that  I admire  the spirit    and  confidence of    that  Nigerian  soldier  a lot because of his pride  in his profession  and  his confidence  that Boko  Haram  could  be defeated  provided  the Nigerian  soldiers have the  enabling  environment  in  terms of logistic, weapons  and morale. I  leave  it  to  the Army  to  consider  this important information from  one  of its  ranks  and  to  treat  the suggestion  as a field  information  to  improve  its  battle readiness    to  combat and  hopefully  defeat  the Boko  Haram insurgency.  As  for  me    I want  to apply  the words  he used which  really  hooked  me,  to look  at some  issues today  namely the nature  of  politics  in the postponed    elections, the attitude  of  the US and  EU  to  the postponement  and the withdrawal of  US military  personnel  on  Ebola  from  Liberia  on  the orders of President  Barak  Obama because of  the  spread  of  the  disease amongst  the  Americans  posted  there. In  effect  then I  am looking  at  these  issues  in  terms of the    candid  but true lamentation of  my  Nigerian soldier  friend  though  unknown  hero –  Logistics  fail, Weapons  fail, Morale  fail!

    Starting  with the  attitude  of the two  parties, it  is apparent that  each  has  accused  the other of  abetting  INEC  for  the postponement but  it  is the  PDP  that  has  gone  out  of  its way to  show  figures  to  prove  it  while  APC  candidate  retired General  Muhammadu  Buhari  called  the  postponement  a coup. While the postponement frenzy  was  playing itself  out,  the  US  and  EU asked the contestants  to  sign an  agreement  on  no post  election violence  which    they  did. The  US  Consul  was even  shown  in the news  media  posing  with the APC and  PDP gubernatorial candidates  signing  the  non  violence  pact  in  Lagos. To  me, both  on  the part  of the parties  as well as these  foreign sympathisers  the cart was  definitely  put  before  the horse. The interest  in  post  election  violence  was  overshadowing the readiness  of INEC  for  the February  14  election  which  all  parties both local  and foreign  in  the post election  violence jitters,  conveniently  ignored. Now  with  the postponement  and the  overrated  state  of  INEC’s  position  and  posture  for  the Valentine  Day’s  elections  I think  they  now  know  better and would  be more circumspect  in taking  INEC  for its word  next  time around. Again  I say  to  them  like my  soldier  friend  lamented to BBC – logistics fail, weapons fail, morale  fail!

    With  regard  to the  attitude  of  the US  and  EU  to  the postponement  I  want  to  express  both    my  disappointment and sympathy in that  they  mistook it  as a ploy  to  sabotage  democracy simply  out  of  their ignorance  of  Nigerian  politics. They simply  did  not seem  to  have gathered  relevant and  correct information  on the issue  of INEC’s  readiness and if  they did  they did  not take  it seriously and  that is  an anormally that  they would  not have  ignored  in  their  own environment,  which  is a real  pity.  I  will  like  them to  remember  Blairism, the Doctrine  of  the  International  Community  formulated  in  1999 when  Tony  Blair UK Prime  Minister  and  former  US  President Bill  Clinton invaded Kosovo  without  a UN  resolution  successfully to  stop    Serbian  strongman  Slobodan  Milosevic  from slaughtering  Muslims  in  Kosovo. The  doctrine was based on the policy  of making  the world healthier, safer  and richer  by interfering in national  disputes  or problems  and  nipping them in the bud before  they  become  global  calamities  but  in  the process planting democracy  and capitalism  in the affected  nations.

    The  rationale  was  that genocides create refugees  which affect regional  stability as in Syria and Iraq. Corruption causes  global financial  melt down  which affect  the  world  economy negatively and  Nigeria  is a beehive  of corruption. Pandemics  too  can easily spread  like  contagions across  global  borders  and air space just  like  Ebola  has  gotten  to  the US  and  the US  is withdrawing  its  troops  in  defiance of the  Kosovo  Doctrine which happens  to be the foreign  policy of the Democratic  Party  in  the US headed  by President  Barak  Obama.

    US  Secretary  of State John Kerry’s  hurried  visit  to Nigeria  in retrospect  was in the spirit  of the Doctrine of the  International Community but it was a journey based on  misinformation and  the subtle threat not  to  postpone could  have  done more harm  than good to Nigeria’s  democracy if  it was heeded.  Although  some have criticised  the Doctrine as dictatorial  and that nations  should be allowed  to  evolve their pattern of governance  without US interference  or imposition  of democracy    and  capitalism,  the policy itself  can  be helpful  to  some nations  in  deep  trouble provided  the US  and  its  allies  read  the situation right  and not as roundly wrongly as they did on Nigeria’s  postponement  of its Valentine Day’s  election.

    Lastly  the fact  that the  US  is  withdrawing  its  troops  from Liberia  again shows  how short sighted US  African  foreign policy is.  The  US  has  the  technology    and  can  do  the research    to annihilate  Ebola  but it  is behaving like a global  big  cat  that would eat    fish  from  a pond    without  getting its paws  wet.

    Anyway  it will  not be the first  time the US  will abandon  Liberia its only  colony in  Africa  to  its  fate.  It  did so when Sergeant Samuel  Doe  took  over and civil  war  crippled the country till  ECOMOG  troops led by  Nigeria brought sanity  to Liberia. Now ebola  has seized  Liberia  and the US  which  initially  hurried to help  has  bolted.  Nigeria  meanwhile has  conquered  ebola  but is embroiled in controlling the  Boko  Haram insurgency  and  cannot help  Liberia  again. Surely  the spirit  of  the International Community is facing serious  challenges  in our part  of the world for now  and  some respite  would  be  most  welcome.

  • A shaky election on corruption and security

    The  coming  presidential  election  of  February 14  has  thrown Nigerian  voters  into  a quandary of  sorts,  between  the devil  and  the deep  blue  sea. The quandary  is  not  a matter  of choice between  the two major  parties or  the presidential candidates.  It  is    the fear  of  what  to  do on  a calculated disenfranchisement  that  could  be mistaken  for  voters’ apathy and an  INEC  that  seems  bent on making  the  terrain  safe  only  for the  sort  of  shaky  election  that the Council  of State has endorsed  for  it  to  conduct.  Predictably    this  unexpected political  contraption  can  only  midwife a  controversial election  result and a dangerous  future  for our fragile  democracy. This  is  not  just    pessimism,  it  is  a  realistic assessment of  our  political  situation  and  can  only  be illustrated  with  an    analogy.  That  is  that  for  now,  with this  February  14  presidential  election,  the  Nigerian  polity has  been  positioned  by  INEC, like  a suicidal  man or  a sacrificial  lamb standing in the way  of  a moving  train.  The result  is  predictable.  Again  I say  this  is  no  exaggeration and  I will  prove  that  today.

    I  start  by  identifying  the  institutions,  personalities  and issues  involved  in  this election and  how  they  have brought  the nation  to  its  knees  with  this impasse  that threw  the ball  in the court  of a body  like the Council  of  State to  decide on  the postponement  of  the  election, a  task  it deftly  passed back to  the electoral  body  responsible  for  our  elections, INEC. The institutions  are INEC, the  Presidency,  and  the  two political  parties. The  issues  are  the  two  major  campaign issues  in this election  namely  corruption  and  security  and  the personalities  are  the two  presidential  candidates  and  the conduct  of their  campaign  for  power.

    It  is  my  contention  that  INEC  has  been  deliberating pussy footing to  conduct a free  and fair  election  in  Nigeria and  the fact  that about  a third  of the  registered voters  will  not be eligible to vote  with  the  required  voters  card  is  ample proof of that. It  is that  simple.  The      fact  that INEC  is  not prepared  to postpone  the  election  to  accommodate  and  increase eligible  voter  participation  in an  election  the  nation spent over 98bn  naira  of tax  payers’  money  to organise  and  for which  INEC  has four  years  to  prepare,  is  not  only  a shame but a lesson  in negligence  and  irresponsibility. INEC  officials should  go into  the field  nation wide  and see  uncollected  voters cards because  local  INEC officials  unbelievably and clumsily  told voters with  the 2011  voters  card  that they  should  go to INEC office  because the  computer  used  for  2011  had  broken  down  and polling booths have only cards  for  those  who  registered  in December 2014. Yet  this same INEC  has  boldly  and  brazenly  told the nation  and the  Council  of state  that the election  must  go on  without a third  of registered  voters  available On  the Council  of  State  involvement  which brought  attention  to its  composition  I can  only  wonder who  advised  the Presidency  on that  because  it was  a callous  public  mischief. How  can a Council  of state  made  up  previous  coup  plotters and  those  they overthrew, as  well as those  who  cancelled  elections,  be asked to  decide  on a touchy  issue  like  postponement  of  an election like  the one we are  talking about?. The  Council  from  its composition has  no  locus  or  legitimacy    in this sort  of thing because  its  composition draws  back  the hand  of  the clock  in our march  towards  democracy, as the pictures  of  the  members  at the  meeting in the media  brought  back  painful  and  bad  memories of our    political  past as  a nation. That  the  matter  was brought  before  the Council  could  only  have occurred  because  the Presidency  wanted  to  mischievously  highlight  the fact  that the  APC  candidate  was  a member  and drive  home    the point it has made sumptuously in its many    media adverts  that the  APC presidential    candidate  was  a former  dictator  in  power. That however  seemed  a last  ditch,  desperate  and  belated  effort because  the momentum  of change  is  moving in the direction  of this candidate regardless  of  his being  a member  of this same Council  of  State whose  role    we    found  quite  objectionable in this  matter.

    Next    is  the  role  of Presidency  in  this  postponement  saga. It  seems  the presidency  has  forgotten  that the President is  a member  of Council  of State even  though it  was  the same presidency that convened  the meeting. The  President  is  a candidate  in this election and his party the PDP  has  been  campaigning  furiously that the campaign should  be post  poned because  INEC  is  not ready.

    Does  the same  presidency think that the Nigerian  public and members of the Council  of State do  not  know  that  the President Goodluck Jonathan  of the Presidency and  the  Council  of State is the same person  as  the  presidential  candidate  of  the PDP asking for election postponement through the numerous  paid adverts that Nigerians  have  been  bombarded with  bombarded  with  in  the last one week? One  can  say  the voice  is the voice of  Jacob but  the hand  is the  hand  of  Esau but  in this  particular  instance Nigerians  are  not blind  and can see  very clearly. The  president should  know  he can not  be a judge  in his  own  case. The presidency simply  mishandled    this postponement  matter.

    On  the  two  political  parties  I  have nothing  but  commendation for the robust  campaign  they  have  mounted  against  each  other in  the quest  for  power. In  terms  of expenditure  and costs  of advertising  however  I  think  the PDP  campaign for its presidential  candidate  must  be  one  of  the most  expensive  in this  part  of  the world. Especially this week  when they  focussed on the achievements of their  candidate and  took on expensive, choice,  special  cover  position  media space in  a way  that showed  that money  was  no  problem. One  can  only wonder  if public funds  were    not being used  to  promote  their  candidate which  is an illegal act and which should  be the subject  of a probe in a  new  government. Moreso  as they  too should know  by now that  change  is imminent  given  the   public    mood  of disenchantment    and  disgust  with  their  very  extravagant media buzz  and  overbearing  razz  mattaz.

    Undoubtedly  the  major  issues  in  this election are corruption  and security.  Just  as the personalities  dominating  the elections are the  PDP  candidate, incumbent President  Goodluck  Jonathan and APC candidate retired General  Goodluck  Jonathan.  The personality  of  each  candidate  has  certainly  affected  the nature  and  content  of  the campaign. The PDP  candidate  is loquacious  and  has  shown  this  virally  on  the campaign trail.

    The APC  candidate  is taciturn  and is  not  a man  of  many  words. However,  in an election  dominated by corruption  Buhari  is truly  a five star  general  compared  to a  Lilliputan  Jonathan who  allowed  his regime  to be swamped  by  massive  corruption to  which  he  diligently  and copiously  turned  a blind  eye.

    This    has been  the hallmark  of his administration and  has now skyrocketed  to  become a huge election albatross and      the looming  nemesis  of  his  incumbency.  On  that score,  this president  has no one but himself  to blame.

    On  the handling of security, Buhari’s  credentials  speak  for  him while  the President’s  handling of  Boko  Haram  also  say volumes  on  his  capacity  in  that regard. While  Buhari  had  a military  record  of  having  driven  insurgents from  our  borders and  pursuing them into  oblivion the  incumbent  President’s handling  of Boko  Haram  has  not  in any  way  been  commendable.

    As  Commander In  Chief  he has presided  over  the loss  of our North East  to Boko  Haram’s  borderless  caliphate and  his negligence  has led  to the  AU creating  a  regional  force  to help drive  Boko Haram away from capturing more Nigerian towns  and killing our citizens  in the process. The  only valiant  thing this president has done  against Boko  Haram  insurgency  is  that he risked  his own  personal  security  in campaigning  in the North East which  he  did  not  visit when the 200 Chibok  girls  were abducted last  year, and  to where  he has  not gone since  the insurgency began. Obviously  the lure  for votes  and  political power  transcend the  loss  of  thousands  of  Nigerian lives  lost in the North  East  as  well  as  the kidnapping  of  the 200 Chibok girls  who  have  not  been  found  till  today. It  is  simply preposterous to  seek  re election  under  such  circumstances and the PDP  candidate  should know what  to expect  from Nigerians on February 14.

  • 2015 elections, looming disenfranchisement and security

    NIGERIA’S 2015 presidential elections of February 14, which is lovers day all over the world appears too close for comfort given large number of Nigerians that are yet to get voters cards. More worrisome is the desperate attempt of the rulin party to disqualify the opposition candidate on educational qualifications and the reluctance of INEC the electoral authority to consider any hint of a possible postponement because of an apparent disenfranchisement of 50 % – about 30m- of the electorate, because of lack of voters cards. Add to this the unbelievable news report that a coalition of four Northern Civil Society Organisations have dragged the same opposition candidate to the International Court of Justice – ICC – over post election violence in the 2011 elections and you want to wonder why some people are so desperate that the change of government which appears imminent and unchangeable if the February elections hold in a conducive, should not be allowed to happen. Unfortunately such people and their antics or strategy of mischief and digression are like a dog barking at the moon to go away at night. It is a folly and a crass exercise in futility.

    They are trying to manage and stop change and experts in Strategic Management should tell them, if they will listen, that Change Management is an oxymoron as change cannot be managed or stopped. You may go along with change if you are wise but you cannot stop it and I am not talking about natural disasters like tsunamis or volcanoes alone. I am talking about the kind of political change imminent in Nigeria this February which has spawned a monster movement aimed at stopping APC candidate retired General Muhammadu Buhari from becoming the next president of Nigeria at all cost. The ‘Stop Buhari from contesting‘ campaign is an odious oddity in our political system created by those who are desperate to keep the incumbent president at his job because their lives depend on his continuing in office after 2015 lovers day and beyond.

    Yet, the incumbent is busy campaigning all over the nation and has pitifully lamented that the Boko Haram insurgency has not allowed people to appreciate his numerous achievements and that really is an understatement. As it is also a tautology. What sort of achievements can allow, that under the watch of a president and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces on whose table the buck stops, over 200 Chibok girls have vamoosed into thin air like the Malaysian aircraft that did the same thing last year? The Chibok school girls have not been seen since April last year and no achievements can drive that under the table or earn the achiever responsible for their lives and security any or many accolades or votes in this February election. Inability to find the Chibok girls and the growing capacity of Boko Haram to seize Nigerian towns on Nigeria’s soil and kill thousands of Nigerian with impunity makes a mockery and a misnomer of any achievements of this administration and that can not be wished away by a thousand campaign speeches all over the nation. That is the stark price on the 200 Chibok girls disappearance, and it is the electorate’s payback time at the February elections.

    Going back to the issues highlighted at the beginning involving the lack of voters cards for half the electorate, it is pertinent to note the issue was raised by no less a person than our National Security Adviser but in far away London. I listened to the BBC interview when he said he could not see INEC getting the remaining over 30m voters card ready before February 14.

    Given that concern he asked for a postponement but as allowed within the constitution. Which sounds responsible and fine by me. But some people are treating this sensible advice like a cancellation. Which is wrong and disruptive. Equally alarming was the reaction of the INC Spokesman that postponement was not on INEC’s agenda. That certainly is unbelievable given the fact that INEC had all along insisted that the Security experts will decide whether elections will hold in the beleaguered North East as INEC is not an expert on such issues. Obviously INEC is short sighted in seeing the security implications of disenfranchising about half the Nigerian electorate and should do a quick rethink before it is too late. Indeed the NSA is trying to save the neck if not the ass of INEC on this although such an important advice should have been given at home to his employers and not on foreign ground. The political parties too should close ranks to prevent a gross disenfranchisement to happen in this election as it will damage the credibility and legitimacy of any such election results sooner than later. Disenfranchisement in any election has always been a recipe for post election violence and that should be carefully avoided by all stakeholders in this election. That again brings up for discussion the matter of the four Civil Liberty organisations that have taken the APC candidate to ICC at the Hague over post election violence in the 2011 elections. Together with those trying to make a mountain out of a molehill on Buhari’s school certificate credentials, timing is the weapon of confusion in both cases. Since 2011, why have these civil liberty organisations not gone to court till now that the retired general is a presidential candidate of a popular party and the 2015 election is less than a month away? Similarly with those raising the school certificate brouhaha one should ask – why now? After all, this same retired general contested in 2007, and 2011 and no such issues were raised. Obviously the APC candidate’s detractors have seen the handwriting on the wall that 2015 is different from earlier elections and is going to be third time lucky for the APC presidential candidate. I certainly share their vision but not their fears as what they are manifesting is crass premonition that this election will be their nemesis as the APC candidate is very well on the way to victory.

    I can however offer them some comforting ideas, if they will consider it and that is that they should exercise some patience for the elections to hold, and recall what happened in Kenya at the last presidential elections.

    Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate were distracted like this over post election violence in the last presidential election – 2007/2008 before they were elected into office in 2013. They were charged for post election violence in the 2007 presidential elections although neither contested then for the presidency. They were indeed in opposing camps. They won in spite of this and both have gone to the Hague as sitting President and Vice President of Kenya, and Kenya is moving on marvellously. The APC candidate’s detractors should just take things easy on their hate mongering, as President Muhammadu Buhari will not be the first African president to go to answer spurious charges at the Hague. The February 14 elections will surely see to that. God willing, Insha Allah.

  • Clash of values, elections and security

    WHEN it was first used by Samuel P Huntington, the term ‘Clash of Civilisation‘ was played down as alarmist by a nervous global international and intellectual audience. Nowadays however, after the recent Charlie Hebdo Magazine massacre in Paris, France and the subsequent printing of millions of the cover copies of the magazine depicting the picture of Prophet Mohammed, a taboo in Islam, I doubt if anyone can boldly call Huntington’s description an exaggerated alarm any longer. In addition in Nigeria where Boko Haram is slaughtering human beings in their thousands while a general election is slated for next month and the sect has just killed thousands in Baga and threatened to kill the Emir of Kano, there is no denying that that there is a also clash within Islam on the practice of the religion which Boko Haram claims to be fighting for and defending to the horror of peaceful Muslims all over the world.

    No where is the clash of civilisation and the attendant befuddlement and dilemma with regard to religion better illustrated than in Senegal where the President joined the Freedom March in Paris with other world leaders but banned copies of the magazine from being sold in Senegal after the Solidarity Freedom March in Paris. Some newspapers in Kenya and S Africa have had to apologise to their Muslim readers after outrage by Muslims in such nations after the publication of the Charlie Hebdo cover there. Surely the covers are a time bomb in any language or community where Muslims live and congregate and you can imagine the mood in the entire Middle East especially in the hotbeds of Islamic radicalism and militancy like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq; even theocratic Iran of the Ayatollahs – and of course the base of Boko Haram, Nigeria. Really I doubt if any Nigerian newspaper would publish the Charlie Hebdo post Paris Massacre cover and I would lend my support to that decision for the simple reason that we must show respect for the values and beliefs of those with whom we share society and environment. Freedom has never been absolutely free and there is a saying that your freedom ends where my nose begins. That is what the decision to print the covers has ignored and it is one that France and Europe would pay a steep and costly price for in terms of security and social cohesion and stability now and in the immediate future. For now I keep my fingers crossed on the consequences of the cover publication for Europe and the world as I try to examine the reason for a decision that is no less than a slap in the face for another religion by those who have long abandoned their own faith which they have replaced with freedom of speech at a gargantuan cost.

    Before the Charlie Hebdo Paris Massacre there were demonstrations in Germany especially in Dresden by a group called Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of Europe with the acronym – PEGIDA -. Prominent Germans like former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and Chancellor Angela Merkel rightly denounced the group as extremists and victims of xenophobia with hatred in their hearts. It was no surprise that Angela Merkel was one of the first to arrive for the Paris March because after France which has the largest Muslim population in Europe [5m], Germany is next with 4m, while Britain is next with 3m. But then the Muslims did not just show up in these European nations, they are products or bye product of European colonialism which built the wealth and economies of these European nations with the exception of Germany where the Turks have always provided cheap labor to oil the robust

    German economy which is the most buoyant in Europe. In most European nations especially France the immigrant Muslim communities have always suffered from violence, discrimination and unemployment. Now with the publication of the Charlie Hebdo cover magazine you can add religious provocation to their woes. This certainly cannot be fair in an environment where some extremists and immigrant haters are advocating increase in recruitment discrimination to save jobs for indigenes and are advocating a limit of social welfare and benefits for such indigenes only while leaving out immigrants. Certainly such measures cannot promote social and environmental trust needed for social stability and cohesion now or in the future. For now it is certain that European parties that hate immigrants will win more elections in France especially and in Europe generally. Le Pen’ daughter is growing in stature in France and some have predicted she would win France’s presidential election in 2017. But the fact and the truth is that while the French Muslims live in ridicule of their religion and fear of discrimination, they cannot fully pull their weight as part of Franc’s overall social capital because they cannot fully trust the system. How they react to their plight will determine the future of France because as an African proverb goes – No one puts fire on a thatched roof and goes to sleep. Of course the wily French have their own version – Eternal Vigilance is the price of liberty. Certainly the French have set for themselves a very long and arduous vigil on this Charlie Hebdo affair and I do not envy them at all.

    At home in Nigeria the authorities are more concerned with conducting a free and fair election rather than putting an end to the killing of Nigerians in the North East by using the armed forces to chase Boko Haram away into the night from which it emerged bloodily in our midst some time ago. The two presidential candidates have signed a truce that there will be no post election violence so that the elections must just hold as scheduled. Even the budget for the year has been post poned to after the elections by a National Assembly whose members are more preoccupied with elections than appropriations. At last the President has visited the North East capital of Borno State, Maiduguri 267 days after the over 200 Boko Haram girls were abducted and have not been found to date.

    The elections going on as scheduled, the loss of the Chibok girls, and the unabated blood letting of innocent Nigerians by Boko Haram show that our respect for human life and dignity as a nation is shallow and inhuman. Undoubtedly the rest of the world must be wondering how we can as a nation be so thick skinned on the loss of so many lives in such a short time while the quest for power goes on at all costs and in spite of the attendant insecurity of life and property in a section of the nation with a large percentage of our population. Anyway every cloud has a silver lining and in spite of our misfortunes and lack of regard for human life we have an election to look forward to and the hope that those who have led us to our sorry Pass of Thermoplae will not come again, come February 14 2015. That is the only wish that is comforting nowadays and one prays and hopes it materialises. Again, Amen.