The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Global health (Ebola) insurgency and politics

    AFTER an African Football Confederation match against Cameroon this week, a Sierra Leonean footballer was shown on global media carrying a placard saying that he is a Sierra Leonian and not a virus. This was his way of protesting against the way the Sierra Leonian team was discriminated against by the host team they played against in that qualifying encounter this week because Sierra Leone is one of the four W African nations reeling from the unfortunate and lethal grip of the fearful ebola virus. Given the reaction from some quarters to protect their kith and keen from the ebola contagion one can say to the Sierra Leonean star that he has not seen anything yet, definitely not even the tip of the iceberg, in terms of ebola virus hostility and resentment.

    This is because this same week Jamaica and Guyana , black Caribbean nations, have banned travels from W African nations having ebola namely Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia. Worse still but for US President Barak Obama putting his feet down in that nation, US opposition Republicans were this week asking the US to close shop on travels from West Africa and are using this to play politics by accusing Obama that he is not doing enough to protect American lives at home and abroad by insisting that it is not yet time to impose travel bans on W Africa. Since midterm elections are due in the US in some key states the Republicans want to make ebola management and public safety an issue to make them win the six states they need to win the majority in the US senate back again. Obama has kowtowed in a way by promising to appoint an Ebola czar just like the US did after 9/11 in 2001 by appointing an Home land Security czar. Which means that politics has raised the ebola issue to the same priority and high alert level as terrorism insurgency and Islamic State in America even though most US citizens and even health suppliers and managers are not sure yet what ebola symptoms really are in order to identify and quarantine real and potential victims in the US

    Homeland not to talk of America’s vast porous borders. With this Obama anti – ebola and anti- travel ban policy in mind we shall proceed to look at issues in other lands where real politics is taking place like in Brazil. In the UN where new five members of the UN Security Council were elected this week and Nigeria where the normally austere former Head of State picked a presidential nomination form for a whopping 27.5m naira and complained loudly at the cost . We round up in a mixture of ebola and Nigerian politics involving former INEC boss Professor Maurice Iwu and his present write ups on the efficacy of bitter kola or garcinia kola in treating the ebola virus and the hangover of credibility hovering over that marketing effort, from the rigged elections in Nigeria between 2005 and 2010 when Iwu was Nigeria’s all powerful INEC czar and boss.

    We start again with Brazil where incumbent President Dilmar Rousseff is involved in a run off election with business magnate Aecio Neves in a ding dong battle for power in the run off elections fixed for October 26 after Neves beat popular candidate Marina Silva to take the second place in the October 5 presidential elections in Brazil. The issues in the elections are very political in Brazil with no name callings or abuses. The problems are corruption, nepotism , and provision of infrastructure and the maintenance of the poverty alleviation programme of the Workers Party which is the party of the incumbent President Dilmar as she is popularly called in Brazil. Neves had accused Dilmar of corruption and channelling funds to her party illegally. In return Dilmar accused her opponent of nepotism in picking his relatives for various positions when he was a governor before. With regard to poverty alleviation Neves accused Dilmar of backsliding on the gains of lifting millions of Brazillians out of poverty during the tenure of her charismatic predecessor as president – Lula da Silva. It is pertinent to note that Neves had not made an issue out of the embarrassing riots that dogged Brazil as it prepared for the last World Cup in that nation. This is because Dilmar handled this admirably including the painful crushing defeat that disgraced a mighty soccer giant like Brazil out of the World Cup on their own soil. This is respect for performance and capability even in the heat of campaign for power by an opponent who knows the sensitivities of the Brazilian electorate to look for facts and their love for the game of soccer and its managememt in Brazil which has brought soccer stars like Romario to the Brazilian senate for criticising corrupt sports officials during and before the last World Cup.

    Compare this professional approach to issues to that in Nigeria where even before the president has declared he is contesting his spokesmen are already after those who have declared intention to contest the presidential elections. APC presidential aspirant former General Muhammed Buhari has been branded a serial loser just for saying that the Nigeria has never had it so bad in terms of corruption under the Jonathan administration and its inability to contain the insurgency of Boko Haram which he said boldly is ‘godless‘. The Presidency reacted to the Buhari criticism by saying that the common man values the efforts of the administration better. Which again is ridiculous as the Chibok girls issues and the conduct of elections in Ekiti and Osun have shown that the Centre or fulcrum of power in Nigeria is totally out of touch with the expectations, sufferings and aspirations of Nigerians as it is using Hobbes law of might is right to grab power in elections, which should be conducted in an atmosphere of peace and concord instead of the recent creation of a garrison mentality of intimidation and the muzzling of the judiciary and the trampling on the rule of law with impunity and violence. As we approach the 2015 elections the signs are ominous for a free and fear elections given the no holds barred attitude of federal incumbency to an election which is a very important milestone to a true democracy in this nation. Political responsibility and accountability are therefore urgently required of presidential aspirants as we approach the 2015 elections even though we are at war. Certainly it is the army fighting the insurgency war and not the politicians and there is need for caution and restraint even as we tell each other our faults and shortcomings. It is in that light that one can appreciate the concern of Buhari over the huge cost of nomination papers to contest. He said he had to borrow money from a bank to get the money and I am sure most people believed him. I read somewhere that some people his home state, Katsina, were trying to raise money for him but may be those will use such funds now to help him pay back the bank. What this means painfully is that political participation in our electoral process has become oligarchic and if you are not rich or really very opulent, you cannot compete for power in Nigeria. Which again says clearly that the playing ground is not level for political participation and that makes a mockery of universal adult suffrage and throws us back into the past in the history of nations like the US and Britain where you can not vote or be voted for unless you have property. Which in our context means if you are not a millionaire you just cannot sniff the presidency at your level. That really is quite bothersome for the quality of politics in Nigeria.

    A similar concern on inequity permeated the elections of five nations into the UN Security Council this week. The nations were Venezuela, Angola, Malaysia, New Zealand and Spain. These nations are happy to be elected but they know that they have no powers in the Security Council where five nations namely US, Russia, UK, France and China have the veto power to crush any decision of the UN General Assembly which was what China and Russia used to veto the US, France and the UK’s effort to place a no fly zone over Syria which escalated the Syrian crisis and led to the emergence of Islamic State and the present flurry of unilateral air strikes to stop the nefarious beheading activities of Islamic State as they head towards Baghdad, the Iraqi capital. However it is the failure of Turkey to get elected and that of Venezuela that interests us in this UN Security Council election. I am sure that Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s late president will be laughing in his grave at his beloved nation’s election into the UN security Council. This is because this provides another opportunity for that nation to show gratitude to Cuba for supporting it always and treating Hugo so dearly with his cancer before he gave up the ghost. Also Hugo’s successors have a great opportunity to lambast the US at the highest UN organ and that really was the main thing that gave Hugo Chavez great joy in his lifetime. Also Turkey which lost to New Zealand and Spain in claiming the two European spots now knows that the hood does not make the monk. 50 years of application for EU membership does not add up to European approbation especially at a time that Turkey was expected to move against Islamic state and it just could not find way to help the Kurds in its region. Surely one good turn deserves another.

    That really is what the brilliant marketing effort on bitter kola for ebola, of the former INEC boss, Maurice Iwu, a distinguished Professor of Pharmacognosy is all about. Until recently not many people knew that Professor Iwu was such a genius in his field of study. The rigged 2007 elections masked all that brilliance on the efficacy of garcinia kola – bitter kola – in treating many ailments like throat infections, bronchitis, head and chest colds, liver and lung ailments. I have read articles by Iwu on these issues but I always end up remembering the rigged elections between 2005 and 2010 when he was sacked . But now I think for our sake we should listen to his call that ebola can be vanquished by bitter kola from a phamacognostic perspective. I read somewhere that in the nineties ebola fever was reduced by bitter kola. If that is true we should listen to Iwu as he has said it, because he knows his onions in his field. The rigged elections should not make us short sighted in heeding good medical advice on ebola. No matter where it comes from or the bitter memories they invoke.

  • Nigerian Senate, Turkey – the war On Boko Haram and Islamic State

    I listened to a TV debate on the Boko Haram insurgency this week and I was impressed by the quality of the debate as well as the sincerity of the contributors on the floor of our senate. Indeed I was very pleasantly surprised by what I saw and heard. It reminded me of history and the famed debates of the Senators of Ancient Rome when Rome was a Republic under the Caesars who later subverted the senate and turned it into a Republican Monarchy with the help of the Praetorian Guards, the elite military corps then responsible for the personal security of the Emperor of the Roman Empire, which was the official title of the Ancient Caesars.

    The Nigerian Senate later adopted a resolution that announced and accepted that Nigeria is at war with Boko Haram because it has seized swathes of Nigerian territory and all hands must be on deck to prosecute that war. The motion debated and adopted at the Senate was – Threat to National Sovereignty and Territorial integrity of Nigeria by insurgents. The Senate leadership is to meet the President urgently with the resolution adopted from the motion. At a stage during the debate the Senate President David Mark even said the issue of elections was not on the table as what was important was for Nigeria to prosecute the war successfully with all hands on deck. Which on the surface could mean that the

    Senate was resolute and willing on prosecuting the war, a situation which the debate and events outside it would seem to contradict in a rather surprising way. This is because a war needs to be prosecuted by the army under the command of its Commander in Chief and the war performance of the Nigerian Army took such a battering from the comments of Senators at the debate such that it is apparent that there is no love lost between the two institutions to the chagrin of the Senate President who tried to paper the wall of senatorial disenchantment, with a dexterous use of his high office of coordinator and moderator of debate. I will shed more light on this later.

    Let me bring in another global personality facing the dilemma of our Senate President in the prosecution of a war similar to that of Nigeria and Boko Haram. That leader is Turkey’s strongman Reccep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s new executive president and leader of the Islamist AK Party which has been the most successful Islamist party of modern times to have won elections back to back three times in Turkey since 2002. Indeed when the party he founded in 2001 won its first elections in secular and army protected Turkey in 2002, he could not become PM immediately because he was found guilty of having publicly recited an Islamist poetry and that was against Turkey’s law at that time. It was because AK had a majority in Parliament that the law was changed and he became PM while Abdullah Gul who was PM then became president, albeit ceremonial.

    Now Erdogan’s party has silenced the army over its traditional secular watch on Turkey’s politics and jailed some former military presidents for staging military coups. Yet his AK Party kept winning elections such that he was able to get a referendum to change the constitution to a presidential one and now he is the executive president of Turkey. He has however never hidden his love of Islam and the fact that Turkey can be Islamist, European and modern. He condemned the regime of President Assad of Syria when it started killing its people and has passed resolution through Turkey’s Parliament declaring war on Islamic State. When asked to lead the way as a regional leader however, the bold and resolute Erdogan suddenly developed feet of clay this week. Instead he is finding excuses. He has asked the US to declare a no fly zone over Turkey to protect it from the Syrian Airforce. This was a Turkey ready before to take on Syria, solo, at the beginning of the Syrian crisis. He is reluctant to arm Turkish Kurds to fight Islamic State because he feared they may use the weapons against Turkey later. Which could be a legitimate fear but an expedient risk that he must take now given the location and theatre of war in the region. The truth is that Erdogan is yet to reach that breaking point that the Saudis, the Egyptians and the UAE have reached in not only drawing line in the sand for Islamic State but deciding it has breached it and fighting it to save the corporate and global image of Islam as a peaceful religion. Which really is a real pity for a man who has done so much to give Islam such a successful democratic image and competitive spirit in a region which is very replete with authoritarianism and violence.

    This brings us back to the drift of the debate on the motion on war in the senate this week. There were three strands of contributions. One was from senators whose territories were under the siege and capture of Boko Haram. They begged the rest of Nigeria, the federal might to come to their aid and they said this with dignity and pride. They did not cry. They could have. But as a fellow Nigerian I wept for them. A Senator said Maiduguri is now the biggest refugee centre in the world from people fleeing into it from the Boko Haram ceaseless onslaught with all public buildings occupied. The second type of speech warned that it was the turn of the North East now but it could spread to the rest of the nation especially Benue the state of the Senate President. The third strand of contribution berated the army for not adding value in protecting the nation and prosecuting the war while it called on retired army generals to rally round to save the nation in prosecuting a successful war against Boko Haram. I am sure that you will agree with me that the quality of the debate was high and could rival that of ancient Rome. But then let us look backwards a bit in our history to see the way forward in fighting this Boko Haram war.

    Ever since the civil war ended we have had coups led by army generals and the story is that the army has always been in control with the Airforce and Navy as supporting casts largely. There is no need to mention any particular junta by name. It is however sufficient to mention that the air force budget was generally muzzled to prevent the rise of air power for domestic coups. Now that airsrikes are the modern currency of air power as ably demonstrated by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE not to mention the Almighty US which calls the shots from the air while dodging land battles, the Boko Haram operates with the knowledge that we have no air power to destroy it and operates on our territory with impunity. A Senator at the debate said he can not say out what Nigerian soldiers guarding his area said of his area command. That really sums up our impotence in terms of air power and morale of our troops. How to resolve that should be a national political and military emergency.

    There was no doubt that references to the military did not go down well with the Senate President at that debate. But I was impressed with his comment that election was not on the table which meant that this war took priority over the 2015 elections. I was therefore surprised no end to read that the Senate President, former Governor Gbenga Daniel and another person visited former President Olusegun Obasanjo a Board of Trustees Member of the ruling PDP who had developed cold feet over that role to ask him to forgive the party and resume that role. Of course in resuming the BOT role he will be expected to support the re election of the president which caused his hostility before. Or to tell the president to forget that and prosecute the war first? Now again General Obasanjo was a former head of state who although he never planned a coup but was a major beneficiary at the assassination of the late General Murtala Muhammed whom he succeeded as Head of State.

    Undoubtedly between the Senate president and the reluctant BOT member of PDP there is enough military, business, political and strategic acumen to make Boko Haram a thing of the past sooner than later. Why the Commander in Chief who listens to both and is beholden to them and their experience for being in power in the first instance, still has to be consulted that we are at war, is still one of the wonders of the modern world to me . Some day I pray fervently that we solve urgently the Boko Haram riddle out of the enigma it has so much become before our very eyes, before it consumes all our thinking faculties. Amen.

  • Justice, communications and security

    I found the screaming headlines in some newspapers this week quite disturbing even though they provided ready ammunition for me to write this piece. One was about a letter from the National Judicial Commission [NJC] asking the Inspector General of Police to prosecute those who assaulted judges in Ekiti State recently. Two of them concerned the dead and living Boko Haram leader and the military trial of mutinous Nigerian soldiers. The fourth was the announcement in India mid week that the nation’s PM Narendra Modi would address the nation through radio so as to be able to reach millions of Indians who have no access to television. The fifth was the offer from Egypt to Libya to help it fight Islamic militancy as it has intelligence on them from Egypt’s experience in subduing for ages the Islamic Brotherhood whose member, the deposed former President Mohammed Morsi is awaiting trial in Egypt for treason. For various reasons I will narrate here, I found these pieces of news quite fascinating in drawing lessons to move our great nation forward especially as we have just celebrated our 54th Independence birthday in a mood that even the President of the Republic described as’ sombre’. I agree totally with the sober analysis of our No 1 Citizen and really wonder how, as deeply enmeshed in the eye of the Nigerian political and Sahel storm as he is, he can still sound so distant and aloof from it all and still carry on his onerous responsibility in an amazing ‘business as usual‘ manner. Grudgingly, I concede this to be a rare leadership trait but before you hastily proceed to give him another Independence Day Award in addition to the many he just conferred this week on distinguished Nigerians in Abuja, I ask you to tarry awhile and be patient, till I have finished my self – given assignment of today, on the news items I listed before.

    Let me first of all state my initial reaction either of amazement, joy or revulsion on each of these news items before I proceed to draw my conclusions or moral there from. In the attacks on judges in Ekiti, one is left wondering why the good people of Ekiti State, renowned for their great learning and endless Ph ds, who recently had a peaceful election, suddenly took it into their heads to take umbrage at judges and beat them up in their courts. Certainly that is definitely un Ekiti – like. On the death defying Boko Haram leader, whether he is alive or dead is immaterial as long as his followers still continue to kill innocent people and are trying to maintain their declared caliphate in Nigeria. It is therefore sheer horror for any right thinking or decent person to see his tape and watch it as that is just like giving the devil a platform it does not deserve for its murderous activities. On the mutiny trial of Nigerian soldiers, including four lieutenant – colonels, I feel sad that the Nigerian army is washing its dirty linen in public at a time when it should not allow itself to be distracted from the present task of crushing Boko Haram by all means at its disposal and as speedily as possible. The fourth news that technology giant India has millions of people that have no access to TV is quite baffling and it shows how caring their new PM is in getting civilisation and governance to the farthest reaches of India. That in itself provides a show case for Nigeria where every state capital has at least two TV stations, one from the state and the other from the Federal government. The last is the timing and relevance of the Egyptian offer to Libya after it was reported that together with Saudi Arabia and UAE air forces it has conducted airstrikes against Libyan Islamic terrorists just last month. This then marks a watershed in the politics and diplomacy of the Middle East as Arabs turn on themselves in a crucial bid to create much needed security and peace in a region rent apart by religious militancy and sectarian strife.

    We can now proceed to do some sober reflection on these incidents serially starting with the letter from the NJC to the Police IG to prosecute those involved in the attack on judges in Ekiti state. To me it seems the NJC is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea as it finds itself precariously on the horn of a dilemma. The judges affected were said by their assailants to be corrupt or to have been giving dubious judgements. Is the NJC aware of this and has it got some information on this in its record? This is because those who live in glass houses should not throw stones .Secondly the attackers were said to be supporters of a governor elect who was initially reported to have slapped a judge but who denied this, saying his overzealous supporters did.

    Obviously, this governor elect has the mandate of governorship in his pocket from the last election that he won. Will the IG initiate his prosecution for not controlling his supporters or is he expected to fold his arms while his supporters are being prosecuted? It is a well known fact that the governor elect belongs to the ruling party and from all indications he will be protected by federal might till he is sworn in after which he has immunity from prosecution. Of what use then is the NJC ‘s letter to the IG except for record purposes?. Nobody is deceived that the governor elect has taken the law into his hand and should not be allowed to get away with it. But in this Nigeria of today he will get away with murder right before our eyes. That is most unfortunate and disgraceful but that is the stuff of our democracy as we proceed towards the inevitable 2013 presidential elections which has claimed the honor and dignity of judges in Ekiti state for now and is a warped and corrupt democracy which the NJC, the sancto sanctorium of our temple of justice, can not beat its chest and claim total ignorance about. For now I see the NJC letter to the IG on the Ekiti judge beating debacle as a futile, judicial barking at the moon given our present socio- political environment and the weight of corruption on the neck of the judiciary dangling dangerously like the famous sword of Damocles.

    The next two issues namely Boko Haram and the army mutiny trial are really two sides of the same coin and border on security and justice in our nation. First the army must maintain discipline within its ranks by all means. That is its prerogative and nobody or institution can take that away from it. Not even its Commander in Chief as it is apparent that the President is not interfering in this matter. But then the army should not cut its nose to spite its face as it is doing now. I say categorically that this mutiny trial should be an internal affair of the army and should not be for public consumption as it is at present just because of the war against Boko Haram which is our priority consideration. Justice should be done army style and not in full public glare and ridicule of the image of the army, its officers and ranks. Obviously espirit de corps of the army is being wounded by this public trial of a mutiny which in itself is a disgrace to any army and its leadership and which should be contained firmly and fairly. Again, army style. That is all that is required for the army to again raise the slogan –‘ To keep Nigeria one is task that must be done ‘ Which was our slogan during the civil war against secession and which should be adopted now by the army to stop the rampant Boko Haram drive towards phantom caliphates that are really ‘killerphates‘ in the North East of Nigeria.

    Next is the import of India’s PM Narenda Mordi’s radio address to Indians which is expected to reach 99% of Indians which was far higher than expected through TV audience size in India. What interests me here is not the gist of the PM’s address but the medium, radio, which also has a formidable audience here for different reasons some of which have serious security concerns especially now that we are at war with Boko Haram. This is because the radio has always been a potent means of communications amongst Northerners both in the North and in any part of Nigeria especially Lagos where most security workers in the posh Ikoyi, Lekki and Ajah Estates are Northerners permanently glued to the Hausa Service of BBC and Radio Kaduna. Even though illiterate, most of these security people are abreast of world news even more than their employers ‘. It was to such people that the Indian PM sought to speak to because they do not have access to TV which in some ways is the same in Nigeria . Except again that our President and his ministers are on twitter which the average Nigerian does not know or care about because he does not have the electricity to plug his phone whereas the ordinary security man in Ikoyi is permanently tuned to global news because of his ‘ever ready’ or Chinese batteries. In terms of security and communications you can just say its win some lose some. For now in India radio is winning and that is good for its teeming masses of almost a billion people.

    The fifth issue concerns Egypt’s offer to Libya to help it fight Islamic Militancy because it has useful information on them. This again is a welcome development because religious extremists generally rely on blind faith to get support and millions into their ranks especially in a mono religious environment like the Middle East in which Egypt has always been a key player. Again this is the second time that it would seem Egypt is breaking ranks with the other Arab States especially the powerful Arab League which must be in a real quandary now as key Arab states like Egypt and Saudi Arabia have turned against Islamic State which is Arab grown and based . Egypt ha s always borne the war of the Arabs against Israel which is the Arabs common foe against which they were united before the advent of beheading IS against which they have again broken ranks . Egypt first broke ranks with Arabs when former President Anwar Sadat went to Jerusalem to meet late Israeli PM Menachem Begin. That exposed Egypt to other Arab nations hatred and led to the assassination of Sadat by the Muslim Brotherhood on which the new Egyptian President al Sisi said that Egypt has information on, to help Libya track their terrorist supporters fighting against the government in Libya which is fast collapsing.

    Again the Egyptian experience on surviving the Tahrir Square mass street demonstrations that led to the collapse of the Housni Mubarak regime in 2011 should be useful to Chinese authorities in Hong Kong which faced a government shut down by thousands of students this week as seen on global TV. One thing is certain about the Egyptian army in or out of government. It knows how to manage power, politics and politicians. It recently lost and gained power through its deft and Machiavellian manipulation of democracy and political institutions in Egypt. Now, its former Commander is Egypt’s president while the man Egyptians elected is facing treason trial. Indeed Egypt under its present government has sterling credentials to market its brand of political stability and politics anywhere in the world especially in the Middle East which is its turf and N Africa which is its backyard. Anyway I advise the demonstrators in Hong Kong to recall the Tahrir Square Street demonstrations in Cairo and how it ended for those demonstrators in Egypt. A word certainly, is enough for the wise.

  • Lamentations, exhortations and emergent global order

    IN Nigeria this week the Arewa Consultative Council a leading socio – cultural caucus startled all of us when its leader, former Police Inspector General and lately a law maker, Senator Abidina Coomasie lamented that Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan had literally abandoned the Northern part of Nigeria in terms of his government’s economic development wlfare and security programme. Indeed, he literally accused our president of fuelling anarchy in the North and turning a blind eye to the atrocities of Boko Haram which he said had laid the North prostrate in terms of peace, security and the quality of human life. Indeed the former IG painted such a grim picture of the powerlessness and suffering of the North that was as laughable as it was sickening such that it was difficult to know whether to cry or to laugh.

    This is because if one did not know the history of Nigeria in the last 100 years one would think that he was talking of the pollution ridden Creeks of the Niger Delta from where the oil money that developed the vast North had come from. And not the North of Nigeria where most Nigerian leaders and heads of states had come from , and where the motto for grooming people like him for power had been – ‘born to rule.’ Indeed one can say wonders will never end on the Coomasie Arewa outburst.

    But then, we go on from there, in spite of the condemnation of Arewa’s lamentations by the Northern Elders Forum through its leader Alhaji Tanko Yakassai who took Coomasie and the leadership of Arewa to the Cleaners by saying that Arewa’s leadership had lost touch with ordinary Northerners and is no longer relevant. The NEL leader, an older and more polemic politician on controversies than the former IG Senator, accused the leadership of Arewa of being infiltrated by opposition politicians. But he said this in such vitriolic language that made it sound as if he had never been in opposition, when his pedigree as a well known Northern leader was that of someone perpetually anti government and anti establishment. That was until quite recently. In addition he made the work or the reaction of the opposition he lambasted so easy, in that he has killed all the birds with one stone where two would have sufficed for the opposition to respond to Arewa’s lamentations if, and, as necessary.

    All the same, the mood in the Arewa camp was not reflective of the mood elsewhere in other parts of the world this week. In the US I listened to a brilliant and vibrant President Barak Obama exhorting American troops at the US Army Central Command on the need for the air strikes against ISIS and telling them that the world respects the quality of their service, contribution and sacrifice because as Americans they are the best in the world to rescue the world from the bestiality of ISIS.

    President Obama harangued US troops this week like a Senator in the Senate of the Ancient Roman Empire with all the dignity, pomp and oratory of that ancient office, the only difference being that he was not wearing the purple toga of the senators of ancient Rome. But the spirit was there and his audience appreciated the respect and recognition of their Commander In Chief, which was the essence of his address and visit any way. In short the US president’s praise and thanks to US troops and their families, equalled that of British Second War PM Winston Churchill to the British Airforce when he famously said – Never in the history of human struggle have so many owed so much to so few.

    Yet if one was thinking that given the high sense of patriotism and sacrifice that the US pres, ident had engendered in his troops, the world was awash or pervaded mainly with such preparations and expectations to degrade or annihilate ISIS, that would be a serious mistake. This is because while the US was clearing the mess of its piece meal response to barbaric religious militancy in the Middle East and Nigeria, a new civilisation was appearing like a star from the east in terms of world economic leadership, cooperation and development. While President Obama was indulging in the braggadocio that the present world usually looked to America to solve its problems including that of Ebola in West Africa, the two most populous nations on earth were far away and unmoved by such sentiments or emotion, no matter how well meaning and how relieving it was to the rest of the world.

    On a visit to India, China’s President Xi Jinping and India’s PM Nasreda Morde signed 12 major economic agreements that would see China spending $20bn to improve India’s infrastructure over the next five years. Hitherto such agreements were a monopoly of the US, EU nations and India’s former colonial master, the UK. But this week these Western nations had other things on their mind while the Indian Tiger and Chinese Dragon forgot their traditional border wars and clinked glasses over what the Indian PM called – Borders of Peace. The agreements would cover costs of modernising India’s ageing Railways, create industrial plantations in parts of India and make India’s pharmaceutical, software, communications and Information Technology Industries have more access to China’s vast population and high demand market. Surely this rapproachment between China and India, whose combined population dwarfs that of the rest of the world, is as important as the US led Coalition against ISIS because the poverty level in the world would be greatly improved by the provision and exchange of jobs and skills between the two most populous nations on earth. Surely the balance of power is shifting east as these two huge nations seek to fend for themselves and contribute so positively to global economic equilibrium. And the US Commander in Chief has to acknowledge that, just as he faces the huge and laudable task of saving us from ourselves and Ebola, in our own little corner in the world.

     Indeed, we have to end on the situation of our tight corner over the abducted and yet to be found Chibok 200 girls as well as the performance of our armed forces in the bloody fight against Boko Haram. Of course I refuse to believe the media reports that Boko Haram has appointed two Emirs in two captured towns in our besieged North East. Also while I am a stickler for discipline I nevertheless find it horrendous that so many soldiers can be sentenced to death for mutiny in the middle of this Boko Haram war. Such sentence if carried out will diminish morale rather than deter which could have been its controversial rationale. The sentence is just too harsh and could have a polarising effect on the military. Similarly the retirement of the general involved creates a double jeorpady for someone who escaped death only to have his career truncated. Did the army wish him dead in the first instance? Surely the army leadership should temper justice with mercy and make a sense of belonging of its troops the priority policy in prosecuting this war for which it has the support and prayers of all Nigerians to bring to a victorious conclusion urgently. What Nigerians want and urgently too, is the sort of scenes in the newspapers this week in which jubilant Nigerians happily escorted Nigerian troops into towns they took back from Boko Haram in the North East. Not pictures of able bodied Nigerian soldiers bring tried for mutiny in the middle of a crippling religious insurgency. Surely something is very bothersome and worrying about such spectacles and trials and we should be spared such in this unusual war in this equally volatile election period.

  • Sanctions, war and unity

    IN his address to the American people on the 13th anniversary of 9/11, the plane bombing of the twin towers of New York and the Pentagon building by Al Quada, the US President Barak Obama sounded more like his predecessor former President George Bush when he addressed the US Congress in 2001 after that unfortunate event that changed the course of world history with the start of the US War on Terror. The context was of course different and Obama had been elected on an anti war mood and campaign in 2008 but the spirit, the target, the message and challenges were the same.

    The US will go after those who kill or threaten its citizens any where in the world and would not flinch in fighting any threat to it security in any part of the globe. How this unity of purpose and commitment came about for these two very different presidents of the US and what we can learn or glean from it in advancing our understanding of the global security challenges posed by the rising menace of Islamic Militancy, is the kernel of our discussion of today. Since the US is perhaps right now, the only nation taking on ISIS on behalf of a watching, waiting and docile world, including of course a Boko Haram ridden and ridiculed Nigeria, we shall look at events that shaped the new US policy on ISIS which explicitly states that it will degrade and destroy the capacity of ISIS to kill, behead and murder innocent people with impunity anywhere in the world.

    Along side this we shall look at the efforts of UK Prime Minster David Cameron in trying to save the unity of the Kingdom by appealing to Scots desperately not to vote for separation or independence from the UK in the forthcoming referendum on that subject. We shall also look at an issue that threatens Nigeria’s unity and stability and that is the reported reallocation of polling booths in Nigeria by INEC. The two highlighted issues – from UK and Nigeria – bother on national unity and territorial integrity of both nations, and one should note that even in the newly declared limited war on ISIL, the US president has the backing of the Opposition Republicans in the US who even feel the ISIL war should be bigger in scope, just like George Bush got his go- ahead from his Congressional Address in 2001 to show internal unity of purpose on the war.

    Going back to the US president’s declaration of war on ISIL, on the anniversary of 9/11 this week I want to teasingly say that the road to war, albeit an half hearted one, by the US, has been littered by the grit, sweat and success of sanctions, first against Iran and now Russia on which the US announced further sanctions this week. In that ISIL address the US president praised his previous efforts in maintaining world peace by stating that the much criticised US policy on Syria where he stopped the much envisaged air strikes on Syria, yielded the dividend of the destruction of Syria’s much dreaded chemical weapons. It is interesting to recall that Russia was very much a stumbling block in thwarting any UN resolution advanced by the US and EU to get UN approval for the airstrikes against the regime of President Assad who was blatantly killing his country men just to stay in power. Obviously Russian foreign policy prevailed in the UN then, as it was able to prevent the west from dislodging the Assad regime with airstrikes .

    To me that lack of deterrence made Islamist extremists bolder in Syria leading to the emergence ISIL. It made Russia led by President Vladmir Putin more aggressive and that was how the invasion of Crimea came to pass and stand, till today. It also finally and inadvertently led to the to the invasion of Ukraine, which the EU and the US reacted to with sanctions but which the Russians interpreted as a lack of will to fight, but which now is biting so hard that the Russians have begun the withdrawal of their troops, as confirmed by no less a person than the Ukrainian president himself this week. Now, Russia’s joy in stopping a UN sanctioned US airstrike over Syria has boomeranged into a pyrrhic victory with the rise of ISIL which has seen the US willing to fight along its erstwhile adversary in the region, Iran which also is opposed to ISIL or Islamic State and wants it destroyed by all means – but first in Iraq. Which is where it is attacking the Iraqi government led by a Shia majority whose brand of Islam is from Iran .Hitherto Russia and Iran have been staunch allies propping up the repressive regime and bloody tyranny of President Assad in Syria.

    Now the US and Iran have a sudden convergence of interests in liquidating the Islamic State threat for their mutual security, regional control and peace. The basis for this partnership of strange bedfellows lies in the Obama ISIL war declaration this week in which he asserted that ISIL is not Islamic because Islam does not approve of killing innocent people and is definitely not a state and therefore has no locus to claim any territorial authority. So Iran, familiar with the withering power of economic sanctions over its bid for nuclear weapons has now found some measure of respect for US outlook and values, in spite of the differences of culture and politics, which have hitherto made both nations implacable enemies till now. Similarly, the Russians who have been making merry with Obama’s steady dilemma in going to war, any where, now know that sanctions can bite really hard, while invasions can be costly to enact and very expensive to maintain in the face of a determined and bold EU and US not really willing to go to a full scale war; but ready, crafty and wily enough to impose crippling sanctions which obviously have made the rampaging Russia bear of the brazen invasion fame, to respect international law and withdraw to its borders at least from Ukraine as it happened this week.

    While the US was making the Middle East secure against Islamic State, Britain was fighting a war of unity as the PM and his deputy flew to Scotland to urge the people there not to secede as it were from the UK as the opinion polls were suggesting that this was the direction of the mind of most Scots on the referendum on Scotland’s proposed Independence. David Cameron’s advice that there would be no going back on the yes vote seemed like a subtle blackmail to me as the choice is before the electorate which has had more than ample time to ruminate over this.

    Which ever way it goes, the Scots have their fate and future in their hands I wish them well in choosing either to jettison the Union Jack or not as that would not really end the sonorous singing of popular national anthem – God Save the Queen What is admirable in all these is the fight being put on by the British PM to preserve the unity of the UK even as the choice is before the electorate to decide. Which is quite the opposite in Nigeria where objections have been raised to the way INEC has re demarcated polling booths and given more to the North than the South. Eminent Southerners have cried foul and have asked the INEC Chairman to resign but he has refused but instead has said firmly that he would be around in 2015. Which to me seems he has turned the issue into a do or die affair. Which also is as bizarre as it is unfortunate.

    This is because in a nation in which the army cannot contain an insurgency similar to that the US declared war on this week, even though ISIL is not on its homeland, elections can certainly not be a priority over security and the containment and quashing of the insurgency. In addition by using whatever figures or statistics INEC used for the number of polling booths in the North and South, INEC has opened a dangerous pandoras box over Nigeria’s census figures which have always revealed that the North is more populous than the South. Which also is a fallacy in terms of the steady north- south population migration which is the demographic trend in Nigeria away from the creeping Sahel which makes habitation difficult leading to further migration away from the Sahel to find greener pastures down south.

    But in Nigeria the Sahel States have more population than the southern states to which people are running to from the harsh unsustainable vegetation of the Sahel . When I saw pictures of students being evacuated from the University and Polytechnic in Mubi because of Boko Haram I could not but recall that when I served as a youth corps in Federal School of Arts and Science Mubi, which later became the Polytechnic in Mubi the population of North Eastern state was put at 15m. The state later gave birth to six states namely, Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, Gongola, Gombe but unfortunately the former NE is now the theatre of war in Nigeria with Boko Haram claiming territories as caliphate on a daily basis.

    Is INEC planning to conduct elections in 2015 in these states especially Borno? And are more polling booths being allocated in these war zones for the 2015 elections? Surely these questions beg for answers as the elections are less than six months away. Again I want to stress that it is bad enough having elections during an insurgency that is intractable, not to talk of adding another headache over polling booths based on questionable census figures that have always generated heated and passionate political contentions and controversies. A word I think is enough for the wise and I urge INEC to show a great sense of responsibility and restraint and rethink the basis of its new polling booths allocation nationwide, if it has any respect for the unity and stability of Nigeria as at presently constituted.

  • Battlefronts of elections and insurgency

    TO declare that the greatest threat to world peace today is Islamic militancy will be an understatement given the new way Islamic State or IS, is decapitating captured human beings before a live global TV audience nowadays. I know the use of the term Islamic can be upsetting given that we know Islam is a religion of peace and love but the facts of violence, murder and mayhem by those who claim to be acting on behalf of that great religion cannot be ignored.

    In Britain, during Tony Blair’s as PM the use of the policy of Multiculturalism to contain the spread of terrorism amongst British Muslims who are largely from the former colonial territories of Asia, Africa and the Middle East the term Religious Militancy was the vogue. This week while speaking before the summit of NATO and US leaders in Wales, in the UK, Prime Minister David Cameron said it was time to deal decisively with what he called Islamist Extremists. It is instructive to know that David Cameron had condemned Multiculturalism as a failed policy before and after being elected into office as PM in the present Coalition government with the Liberals. Cameron also asked members of NATO not to pay ransoms for their captured citizens in the hands of such terrorists as earlier agreed at NATO Summits no matter how painful this was for the families of such captives.

    This according to Cameron was because such money will be used to fund more terrorism to purchase weapons and provide ammunition for more violent activities of these extremists. That piece of advice sets the tone for our analysis of today on how elections and global insurgency have become modern battle fields in a world awash with Islamist Extremism which needs to be curbed fast before igniting a battle of religions or ideologies; or a clash of civilisations that has been in denial for some time, but which is bound to be cataclysmic enough, if it does happen, to consume our world as we know it today, if care is not taken. We start our analysis today by looking at the work schedule of three world leaders this week aside from David Cameron who hosted NATO leaders and US President Barak Obama to a summit in Wales at which sanctions against Russia were expanded to punish it for invading Ukraine again while denying what NATO affirms is really the case. These three leaders are Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan, Pakistan’s PM Nawaz Sharif and US President Barak Obama.

    We start with the Nigerian president who is seeking re – election without declaring that ‘open secret ‘ yet, but who is also facing the fiercest insurgency and rebellion in the North East of the nation from Boko Haram which wants to establish Sharia law in Nigeria. Without mincing words one can say that the Nigerian President is involved in a costly war in two battlefronts which he must win to stay in power in 2015.

    The Boko Haram war is one and his re election is the other. He is campaigning furiously for his re election which was what prompted him to declare that he has given more jobs to Igbos than any previous president. Which really is an understatement as the Igbos dominate the commanding heights of the economy in terms of appointments and which also is to be expected as he too bears an Igbo name – Azikiwe. In addition the president is making sure that some states having elections are supervised militarily so that there is no rigging. Which some how must account for why the army is having a rough time containing the Boko Haram menace in the North East of the country.

    It took a US Assistant Secretary of State to tell a Bi Nation Security Meeting of Nigeria and the US that Boko Haram is operating freely in the North East of Nigeria where it has proclaimed a Caliphate in Gwoza and has announced it has captured Bama not far from the state capital Maiduguri, in Borno State. Undoubtedly the President must be happy with the support he is gathering over his reelection nation wide. That too is to be expected because Nigerians love people in power and today’s incumbents who have money, favours, offices, appointments and patronages to give out, in the rags to riches way governance and political appointments have transformed public servants into overnight millionaires and emergency billionaires in Nigeria today.

    But then the Boko Haram menace must not be allowed to be the Achilles heel of our 2015 elections or the soft underbelly of our political stability. This is because it is becoming daily disturbing that the Nigerian Army is losing face and legitimacy in the way it has found it difficult to contain the Boko Haram menace. The army should not be disgraced over this Boko Haram insurgency as it is the last hope of Nigerians for peace, security and the territorial integrity of this nation. Elections must go on in democracy as they are the life line and vital ritual expected of the electorate to give and take power, but, there must be peace for elections to take place in this Nigeria.

    Nigeria is not Iraq or Agfhanistan where people trooped bravely out to vote while terrorists bombed polling booths. Certainly this government must be told to crush the Boko Haram menace before the 2015 elections. This is the only way it can avoid the odious tag of Nero, the Emperor in the Ancient Roman Empire who fiddled while Rome burnt and put his name in infamy and opprobrium, with posterity and history forever.

    In Pakistan which is a bubbling democracy like Nigeria the PM Nawaz Sharif faces a battle of wills with his political opponents over charges that he came to power in a rigged elections and should resign for fresh elections to take place. There are fears that the army headed by his namesake General Raheel Sharif may stage a coup and take over power. The PM has however had some reprieve constitutionally in that the Pakistani Parliament has voted in his support to stay in office as he was democratically elected.

    The US also, as it did in the US/Nigeria Bi Nation confab on Security in Abuja has waded in through its Ambassador in Pakistan to say that it recognises Nawaz Sharif as the duly elected PM of Pakistan in spite of the huge demonstrations on flawed 2013 elections. So what then are the demonstrators up to except to goad the army to stage a coup? Anyway again as in Nigeria, the Pakistani Army is fighting Islamic Exteremists in that nation and this week killed hundreds of them in a battle which has characterised Pakistan, a Muslim nation and a democracy where secular Muslims have never voted to have any fanatic as PM and where politicians are brave enough to confront and deal effectively with Islamist Extremists regardless of which party has been in power. Also the Pakistani Army is well respected as being capable of defending the peace and security of the Pakistani nation, the only snag being when Bin Laden was taken away from Pakistan by the Americans right under the nose of the Pakistani military.

    Also the fear of a coup may not be that deep as the Pakistani Army has it hands full fighting insurgency in the nation without the added and avoidable burden of taking over the government and incurring the wrath of Pakistan’s very active and boisterous politicians. Let me round up by giving my grudging respect to US President Barak Obama over the way he has responded to the threat of ISIS or IS and its disturbing trend of beheading captives, taking ransoms by sending airstrikes to chase the terrorists away in Iraq and saving lives. He was in Wales this week for NATO meeting obviously to give assent to NATO’s decision for more sanctions against Russia on Ukraine.

    In a way I suspect the US president looked battle or crisis weary in this second half of his second term . You must however give it to him the way he has handled the capture of US citizens and the crazy killing or shooting incidents in the US in recent times. He has always been there on site to assuage feelings and give succour to affected US citizens and families. Which is an anathema to the way the Nigerian President has handled Boko Haram and the issue of the missing 200 Chibok girls as the President is yet to visit any part of the North East including Chibok to show the strength of the Commander in Chief of the Nigerian Army.

    Aside from President Obama’s trade mark empathy with his people I still blame him as I have always done for the state of affairs in the Middle East and especially the rise of IS in Iraq. Just as I thank him for giving the rallying call for democracy in N Africa although that has backfired in Egypt and Syria and Libya. Also Nigerians must be grateful to the Americans for alerting us on our fight against corruption, election rigging and now the fight against Boko Haram and the fact that it is seizing territories with impunity in the North East of Nigeria.

    Certainly the US again has become the Policeman of a free world as it claimed during the Cold War. The only difference this time is that its Commander in Chief has no stomach for policing other nation’s wars but its own, and it does not have any on its home front. Except perhaps the campaign and election promise to end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan which unfortunately gave confidence to jihadists to plan and fill the ensuing post war vacuum, which is now sprouting merciless and blood thirsty caliphates in the Middle East and Nigeria. Certainly the US president is struggling to live with the pragmatic dictum of – win some, lose some. I wish him the best of luck in his onerous duties as the reluctant global policeman of our time an appellation that can only infuriate leaders like Ruussia’s Vladmir Putin like mad.

  • The enemy within and the ‘Salvation’ army

    Last week I wrote that Boko Haram was becoming a state within a state and a few days later it was reported that the blood thirsty militant insurgency had declared the towns and villages surrounding Gwoza, whose Emir it killed sometime ago, part of its caliphate. This week a Catholic spokesman reportedly said that the properties of the Church in Madagali a town close to Gwoza had been vandalized by Boko Haram and it seemed only Christian properties were being targeted by the sect. At about the same time an Australian Security contractor who left Nigeria recently was telling the whole world on the internet that Boko Haram would soon join the caliphate of Islamic State –IS – in Iraq and that of Syria and that Nigerian Opposition leaders were supporting Boko Haram and President Goodluck Jonathan could do nothing about this as he would be accused of tampering with the 2015 elections. Surely these are ominous and woeful news that show clearly that all is not well with the state of Nigeria, if they are all true. Luckily the Nigerian army has dismissed the Boko Haram Caliphate declaration as ‘empty ‘ which I take to be a sham and one should be comforted by that. The Opposition I am sure can fight for itself and debunk the claim of the Australian security contractor who incidentally was contracted to get the 200 Chibok girls out of Boko Haram’s captivity by government, but failed and bolted after collecting his juicy but undisclosed contract sum. All the same there is no doubt that in terms of security in the Nigerian state today there are powerful enemies within and without the government apparatus that need to be contained urgently if our political stability as a nation is to survive the present volatile scenario. News of the Boko Haram caliphate declaration have been compounded by the more disturbing news of Army officers being tried in the Army for mutiny for refusing to be posted to the war front to confront Boko Haram. Surely a house divided against itself cannot stand something urgently needs to be done to instil discipline in the army to defend Nigerians against Boko Haram. Which in effect means that Nigerians should pray for the government to evolve urgently a ‘Salvation Army‘ plan to rescue us from the terror of Boko Haram and put it in the heart of our army to put its house in order to put Boko Haram out of action permanently and as soon as possible. Amen However, it is not only in Nigeria that’ Salvation ‘armies are needed as it were to confront threats to democracy, political stability, terrorism and religious militancy globally. Pakistan for instance is awash with demonstrations asking the elected PM to resign because his election was fraudulent and the army has been accepted as mediator by the politicians to resolve the issue. Egypt has just charged its last elected President to court for giving state secret to Qatar a country that the Egyptian government said is a supporter of the Islamic Brotherhood which is now banned in Egypt but was in power when the so called deal was done. The Russian army is said to be in Ukraine to support the rebels fighting the legitimate government although the Russian authorities have denied this. The UN has also just announced that 3m Syrians have fled that nation since the insurgency there began making that number of refugees’ the biggest humanitarian crisis of our time‘. Of course to all intents and purposes Syria seems particularly headed for perdition as no concept of salvation or army can salvage a nation that has become a broken egg that no force in the universe can put together again. I will expatiate later on these nations and their security conditions and the threat to their political stability from their present plight. Before that however I want to recall a special report in the Economist in July 2005 after the London terror bombings that killed several people. The report titled-Muslim Extremism In Europe; The Enemy Within – noted in part that – ‘In an age of globalised ideologies, globalised communications, and porous borders there is no real distinction between domestic and foreign threats.’ It noted that ‘Islamic Radicalism had been aided by the internet and made it elusive to monitor ‘. Indeed it concluded in part that‘ to a large extent the internet has replaced Afghanistan as a source of training and inspiration for militant Muslims. Such information should be food for thought to our security authorities and even the army to know that the battle line may not be the war front of our North Eastern states, but the sitting rooms or internet cafes spread all over the nation. In any way the North East of Nigeria has one of the most porous borders in the world and is so vast that it is no surprise it has provided easy haven for Boko Haram. I know this because I served as a youth corps member in the former North Eastern State, in Gwoza and Mubi, before six states were carved out of it. Then we used to go to Boukula Market in Cameroun and crossed the border by lifting a pole gate while the Customs officials dozed off as we went to and fro. It is quite easy to see why Boko Haram has chosen the area as its safe haven and now caliphate. What is important now however is to secure the area and monitor the vast and porous borders on the edge of the creeping and hostile Sahel, which itself is hostile to human habitation and vegetation. Let me now comment on the political situation of the places I mentioned before. First is Pakistan, where PM Nawaz Sharif is being asked to resign by Islamic leader Tahir ul Qadri and Cricketer Imran Khan, both popular politicians in their own right, who have led the demonstrations that besieged Islamabad and has made governance virtually impossible. But these politicians are playing into the hands of the army as it happened in Egypt. In Pakistan the army usually intervenes with coups when politicians are at loggerheads as at now . The Pakistani Army led by General Raheel Sharif has its grouse against the present government of PM Sharif because it is trying its former boss , former military President Parvez Musharaf for treason. Which really is a political trial because it was Musharaf who sent Nawaz Sharif packing in a military coup before he got elected again as PM. Nawaz Sharif thought it was pay back time to deal with Musharaf. Now his fellow politicians are pointing a gun at his head for a fraudulent election. Since both sides have agreed for the head of the army to mediate it is not difficult to see who will pull the trigger in this political saga which can only bring reprieve for the army boss targeted by the PM. For the politicians and Pakistan’s turbulent and violent democracy the army is definitely not their salvation army as they are the enemies within themselves. In Egypt the situation is clear in terms of today’s topic. Former President Muhammed Morsi is being tried for a crime that was not one while he was president and he had a mandate to do. But the Egyptian army was and is still an implacable enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood and only allowed Morsi’s election to take place because the US and Western Europe were watching and warning the Egyptian army against intervention in the street demonstrations in Cairo and all over Egypt that toppled former President Housni Mubarak. Now the Egyptian army has its Army chief elected as Egypt’s president and I do not see how former President Muhammed Morsi can survive a treason trial carrying a death sentence. To the Egyptian army and present democracy, Morsi and the Islamic Brotherhood are the enemy within and the Egyptian army has become that of salvation against the militancy that the Muslim Brotherhood now and again, represents. Which again shows that in life and in politics especially with regard to security, no condition is permanent. With regard to events in Ukraine and Syria the issues at stake depend on the personality issues between the presidents of the US and Russia and the resolution of such issues. Meanwhile the humanitarian crisis in Syria will escalate with the attendant explosive growth of jihadist radicalism which has sprung into a global and dangerous trend towards pronouncements of borderless caliphates from Iraq to Gwoza, Nigeria. Really, if the US had called the bluff of Russia over chemical weapons in Syria and the invasion of Crimea, Russia would not now be invading the rest of Ukraine while denying, tongue in the cheek, that it is not doing so. To Russia therefore its army is one of salvation for pro Russian rebels in Ukraine and it has no qualms about it since the EU and US have declared economic war on Russia through sanctions which are apparently hurting Russia. On Syria I presume Russia will not lose any sleep over the humanitarian crisis as it knows American values and compunction will not allow the millions of fugitives to perish. Of course it is left to the Americans to learn on Syria and Ukraine that a stitch in time saves nine and that procrastination on military intervention and indeed in diplomacy is the wily thief of time.

  • Global terrorism, religious freedom and democracy

    PRAISE the Lord and pass the ammunition‘ was a favourite quotation of mine in my younger days when I found it heroic and a sign or clarion call of valour and virtue, in the face of troubles and challenges. Nowadays that feeling has taken a good hiding or a back seat in my estimation.

    This was inevitable given the advent of religious violence and militancy prevalent in various parts of the world especially Nigeria nowadays. Frankly, I do not think I will be amused in any way, if anyone shouted that favourite phrase of praise in my vicinity nowadays.

    This is because in the real world of religious intolerance and Islamic militancy threatening world peace today, one should indeed flee, bolt and take cover or vamoose into thin air in a jiffy, if any religious slogan is shouted near you as the speaker could as well be a suicide bomber – or worse still a young lady- as had happened in many bloody Boko Haram bombings that have claimed many innocent lives in Nigeria in recent times.

    In Nigeria, the 200 abducted Chibok girls are still in the violent captivity of Boko Haram whose leader boasted that they would be sold into a marriage market he said existed after their conversion to Islam. For now, nobody, not even our government, can confirm if he had carried out his threat or not as nobody knows their where about, months after they vanished into thin air like the Malaysian plane carrying about the same number of passengers and crew that have equally not been found.

    Yet in Nigeria it has been business as usual. Indeed tomorrow Nigeria’s Under 20 female team, the Falcons, the same age group with the 200 Chibok girls will play in the finals of the Fifa Soccer Competition and will be rewarded amply by the Nigerian government and people win or lose. Yet the Chibok 200 girls are still missing.

    Of course the Chibok girls, missing or even found, are no threat to world or Nigerian peace or security. For now the greatest threat to Nigerian peace is the 2015 elections and the threat by Northern elders that the incumbent President should stop his mobilisation of Nigerians in the 6 geopolitical zones to launch his re election bid. Which showed that the Northern elders really like to back at the moon.

    Or else it should be apparent to them that if a Commander in Chief can successfully mobilise federal might to secure state elections then he should be more than capable to secure his own re – election, the protestations or warnings of the Northern elders not withstanding.

    I say this boldly because I find it insensitive of the Northern elders who have tasted and wielded power – Aso rock power for that matter, and known its potency as an intoxicant, to dare their successor who now wields the same power, if not more, with such impunity.

    They are really marching where angels fear to tread and must be prepared for a bitter surprise available to only those who survive standing in front of a moving train as the late MKO of June 12 would have said. Of course the irrepressible late MKOa great man of many proverbs once told his presidential running mate that a bird does not tell another when a stone is coming.

    That surely would be good advice for Northern elders as they face an incumbent president who like them sees the 2015 elections as infinitely more important than the fate of the 200 abducted and still missing Chibok girls. With regard to the US, Iraq, and Britain, the threats posed by terrorism to religious freedom and democracy, as shown from events in those nations this week, are quite revealing and educative especially with how they are being confronted.

    This is because in Nigeria we treat these issues like the proverbial ostrich with its head buried in the sand thinking that nobody is seeing it whereas its problems will not go away and will be there when it un – buries its head. That explains why right before our eyes Boko Haram is becoming a state within a state and has this week seized a training academy for anti riot police near Gwoza in the NE of Borno State where there is state of emergency to contain the same Boko Haram insurgency.

    Serially and with speedy impunity Boko Haram has killed and maimed Nigerians and Nigerian soldiers such that the valor and bravery of our troops had to be defended by the military spokesman, a General who took pains to explain the difficult situation of soldiers wives in barracks protesting that their husbands will not fight unless they are well equipped against Boko Haram.

    In the US the Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel came out this week to identify the terror group IS – Islamic State as the greatest threat to US Security today. Yet the IS is fighting to unseat the government of Iraq in Baghdad, so far away from the US Homeland. But the Americans nowadays under President Barak Obama have no stomach for any war as the situation in Iraq could have been avoided if the US had done what it is doing in Iraq today – with air strikes to save minority Christians and Yazidis from the murderous terror of IS -in Syria when President Bashir Assad used chemical weapons against the Syrian opposition calling for the overthrow of Assad.

    The US dithered then and Jihadists infiltrated the Syrian Opposition crystallising in the emergence of first the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq – ISIS- and now, IS led by Sunni militants heading towards Baghdad before US airstrikes stopped them. Now the US Chief of Defence Staff has said that IS cannot be defeated unless its headquarters in Syria is destroyed.

    Which, added to the warning by the US Defence Secretary simply means that the Americans must return to their vomit in Syria and execute the air strikes or red lines they averted in Syria over chemical weapons, this time to guarantee their own security in their own backyard or homeland in the US.

    What a long and treacherous journey back for US Middle East Foreign Policy! In Britain the issues we are discussing today created a dispute between the Church and the state, a familiar tussle in the evolution of parliamentary democracy in that former colonial empire.

    The Bishop of Leeds the Right Reverend Nicholas Baines recently wrote a letter to the British PM David Cameron accusing him that his government’s policy on religious freedom was not dynamic enough to protect Christians being persecuted in their thousands in Iraq.

    The bishop who said he had the endorsement of the Archbishop of Canterbury, the head of the Church of England on the letter, asked how many Iraqi Christians have been offered asylum in Britain based on their plight of utter persecution by the IS in Iraq.

    Which is a pertinent question which unfortunately puts the British PM in a quandary because the British people are in no mood for any war after they crucified Tony Blair his predecessor over the Iraqi Invasion of 2003 with the former US President George Bush, over weapons of mass destruction.

    That the British have a long memory and to show that the anti Iraq war coalition is not dead in Britain, was shown the way Parliament voted across party lines to restrain the PM , David Cameron from going to deal with Assad in Syria when the issue of use of chemical weapons surfaced at the beginning of the Syrian uprising. Now David Cameron is still handcuffed by the fury of the Iraqi anti war coalition and the Church of England seems to be compounding the impotence of a PM caged by a Parliament and a people that have lost the stomach for foreign wars.

    This is made worse by the fact that David Cameron himself has once declared as useless ‘multiculturalism ‘which his predecessor used to fight the dangers of terrorism in post colonial Britain. Sadly the British PM can only wring his hands in embarrassment as the Church of England tries to prod the state to find its balls on religious freedom in good, old Britain over the fate of Iraqis in far away Iraq.

    Really the British are seeing how fast the chicken have come home to roost after colonialism and now globalisation and I am not too sure that they for now really know how to cope. All the same I honestly wish them the best of luck which seems very scarce in old democracies such as theirs in today’s turbulent politics of global Islamic militancy.

  • Power, authority and justice

    WHAT ‘power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely‘ is not on my mind today, on this topic. The loss of power and authority and the attendant, concomitant effect on justice and security drive my mind as I do this global analysis. Four personalities across different continents and their fate this week rivet my attention and at times my sympathy, fear and even admiration, albeit grudgingly.

    They are first, Nouri Maliki who resigned as PM of Iraq this week after showing clearly that he had never come across the expression that an actor withdraws when the ovation is loudest. The second is Egypt’s former strong man Housni Mubarak, still alive and kicking at his trial in Egypt, where he swore this week that he did not order the killing of Egyptian demonstrators during the 2011 Cairo Street demonstrations that toppled his regime. The third is Chinese dissident Gao Zhisheng, just released from detention by the Chinese authorities but whose lawyer said his state of health is such that he is physically ‘destroyed‘ and ‘unintelligible‘.

    The fourth is the Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan who congratulated the winner of last Saturday’s Osun state elections that I labelled ‘Quarantine elections‘ even though he was the one that put an Ebola like security quarantine on the state electorate in an election that his party, the PDP lost so clearly. At the back of my mind today in analysing the actions and fate of these four political figures is William Shakespeare’s timeless observation that –All the world is a stage and men and women are merely players – who have their exits and entrances. In Iraq Nouri Maliki made his exit but in a rather disgraceful manner. He had lost power and authority before resigning.

    Worse still he had lost face because his replacement had been announced by the president who appointed him on his entrance into the stage of power politics in Iraq and he had announced that he would contest his removal in court before dovishly turning in his letter of resignation. So, to Nouri Maliki the Iraqis can say good riddance and good luck to bad rubbish and they will be applauded in saying this to a man who lost power and authority as well as the sovereignty and security of Iraq to the Sunni militant insurgency Islamic state – IS – that has driven over 1.5m Iraqis out of Northern Iraq and was advancing on the capital Baghdad until US Prseident Barak Obama intervened with air raids to save fleeing thousands of Iraqi Christians and Minority Yazids who took refuge in mountains in Northern Iraq. Maliki’s successor a Shia Muslim like him – Engineer Haider al Abadi, Iraq’s Deputy Speaker has made security his priority and has announced hat he welcomes even air strikes from Iran in case the US ones were to end.

    Which was something Maliki could not say because he had lost credibility with friends and foes alike. This is not to say that Sunni Violence since the overthrow of their master Saddam Hussein was anything to write home about. The Sunnis in Iraq have behaved like blood thirsty power losers since the coming of elections and democracy gave power to the majority Shia Moslems in the first set of elections after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Indeed they are like Boko Haram in Nigeria in the way they have been killing or converting by force Christians and Kurds who were an integral and historical part of Iraq as a federation under Saddam Hussein.

    This was when the Sunnni minority held power, propped up by the Americans to create political stability in Iraq and make oil flow through the Straits of Homuz without Iran’s lurking intervention in that area. It was a similar guarantee of political stability that kept our next subject of discussion Housni Mubarak in power for so long after succeeding the late President Anwar Sadat who was assassinated by the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt for signing the peace treaty with Israel.

    Housni Mubarak was the head of the Egyptian Air force in the October 1973 War with Israel when the Egyptians had the upper hand in attacking first and almost defeating Israel before the Israelis rallied round and encircled Egypt’s Third Army in the Sinai leading to humiliating negotiations for the survival of that army. Mubarak was thus a war hero in Egypt before he succeeded Sadat and was in power for decades organising fake elections giving him 90 % of votes cast before the Cairo Tahrir Square Street demonstrations supported by the US and Britain forced him out of power.

    He was brought to trial in Egypt in a cage even though he was sick, and his sons too – powerful ministers in their father’s government – were arraigned with him. He was lucky not to have been lynched then because his army played a wise role in kowtowing to the Street revolution and gaining the confidence of the masses then and organising an election that brought the Moslem Brotherhood to power with the election of President Mohammed Morsi whose Islamist policies angered the Egyptian masses leading to his overthrow by a popular military coup.

    Now Housni Mubarak’s earlier harsh sentences for embezzlement have been converted to three years and he may soon be free as his boys in the army are in power and army Field Marshal El Sissy is now the newly elected president of Egypt. Housni Mubarak’s fate in Egypt is that of a man who has fallen from grace to grass and who has been made to account for his misuse of power without losing his life in the process.

    He reminds me vividly of the Chinese saying – Count no man lucky until his death. I grudgingly wish Housni Mubarak and his sons the best of luck in their political trials as the wind of change nowadays blows in their direction in the land of the Pharaohs. Not that lucky however is our next leader Chinese dissident Gao Zhisheng who the Chinese have treated very badly in prison because he dared to criticise the Chinese authorities for their discriminating attitude to Christians and the Falun Gong Movement in China.

    This really is a clear case of misuse of power and miscarriage of justice. Gao according to his lawyer has been so brutally treated in prison that he has lost his teeth from the diet of cabbage and a slice of bread he was subsisting on in prison. Of course the Chinese have not extended the Mandela treatment by the Apartheid regime of S Africa to Gao.

    Mandela did exams by tuition on Robben Island and learnt the language of his jailors in prison for 27 years. Neither has he been given the Mubarak treatment of a doting Egy ptian army which observed the dictum that he who runs today lives to fight another day and was able to preserve the life of its former Commander in Chief. In the case of Mandela there is no denying that he would not be alive to become the global icon of dignity and freedom if he had been treated the way the wicked Chinese have treated Gao whose wife and children are in the US where Gao is expected to be flown to very soon on his release. I doff my hat to Gao for his courage and conviction and ask the Chinese to cover their face in shame for rusticating and dehumanising an intelligent human being such that he could not be intelligible again after being in state custody.

    That really is a disgrace to China. Lastly I salute the good people of Osun state for trooping out as advised and using their mandate to reward good performance in governance in that state. As I wrote last week quarantines such as the security ones mounted by the federal agencies in that state last week should be broken by a brave and vigilant electorate. That is how to get power and authority and enthrone justice as expected henceforth especially in Nigeria’s 2015 elections.

    Of course I congratulate the President on the sports manly way of conceding defeat and congratulating the winner in the quarantine election as he has done. I also congratulate the speed with which the Federal government has accepted the offer of a cure for the Ebola virus with the Nano Silva drug flown into the country for use after due research protocol clearance by the Health Ministry.

    This shows again that Ebola is an aberration that will go away like quarantine elections. Again I congratulate the President for his new friendly gesture which during the Osun quarantine elections was indeed no more than the friendship of the cocoyam in the midst of goats for the good people of Osun state whose will nevertheless prevailed in that quarantine election.

  • The economics of terrorism, war, and security

    Lastly the activities of the Victims Support Fund in Nigeria as well as the required payment of allowances to recall our legislators to approve the president’s expenditure to fight terrorism are economic and funding issues and are really two sides of the same coin

    IT was Chinese Communist Party Leader Mao who was credited with the saying that ‘a revolution is not a tea party.’ I hasten to agree with that timeless piece of wisdom today even though the word ‘revolution’ is not in vogue or currency, in today’s global politics and diplomacy. Yet, Mao’s long sighted definition of an insurgency or war against the status quo or establishment – which is what a revolution is all about, is quite relevant in considering the issues of war, terrorism and security that are confronting the world right now. In the US in Washington DC next week on August 4 , the 2014 US- African Conference coordinated by the US is taking place involving 50 African nations to discuss US partnership in tackling the menace of both Boko Haram in Nigeria and the Sahel and that of Al Shabaab in East Africa. The theme of the confab, the first of its kind, with more to follow according to the US Under Secretary of State for African Affairs Linda Thomas Greenfield is – ‘Investing in the Next Generation‘. Also with effect from August 1 this week EU sanctions prohibiting finance for 5 major Russian banks came into effect with regard to the role of the Russian backed rebels in shooting down a Malaysian plane in Ukraine recently. EU nations have also banned arms sale to Russia as well as the export gas equipment to Russia. Russia of course is the largest exporter of gas in the world and the second largest exporter of oil and can cut off their supplies to the EU nations in retaliation . Yet the Europeans are punishing Russia because they believe that the Pro -Russian rebels in Ukraine shot down the Malaysian Airlines plane killing 295 people in a flight from Amsterdam very recently. Similarly in Nigeria, where reports on daily Boko Haram killings are the vogue, the news is that the government must be ready to foot the bill to recall legislators to come from their recess to debate the $I bn military expenditure proposal from the presidency. The expenditure is to buy new equipment and upgrade some for the military to confront Boko Haram and really this lawmakers’ demand for recall expenses is evidence enough that there is no free lunch even in fighting terrorism in Nigeria. Also Nigeria has launched the Victims Support Fund to provide for victims of Boko Haram bombings and their dependants just as the news broke that young girls of an age as low as 10 have been used to detonate bombs in Kano killing several innocent Nigerians. Starting with the US –African Confab this week in the US there is no denying that the concern of the US on the matter is a good and legitimate one to help Africa fight terrorism given the US exposure and experience on the matter. In addition the theme – ‘Investing in the Next Generation ‘ is quite apt although a bit futuristic and advisory rather than being pragmatic. The aim of the organisers, from the theme, is to show that providing jobs for African youths will make them less opportune or available to be lured by terrorists to join their ranks. My contention is that almost all the leaders from the 50 African nations at the confab already know this but are simply not doing anything about it. The US organisers should research for the manifestoes of the political parties of the African nations attending. These will show that these African nations have pledged employment for their youths during political campaigns and have been elected on the basis of such promises which they have subsequently not implemented. The US- African Confab should therefore focus on making these nations fulfil their election promises to their masses of unemployed youths to stem the high flow of such people into the recruitment ranks of real and budding terrorists. This alone will make a success of the US /Africa conference which I fully support. In addition I urge the US not to be distracted by hostile criticism that it is creating business and jobs for its military industrial complex or that it may even be funding terrorism in Africa. Such criticisms are based on Cold War animosities between leftists and laissez faire capitalists and such views are stereotypes to be ignored in the face of the new frontiers of modern terrorism, the containment of which requires urgent regional and continental cooperation and vigilance. Certainly the US Africa Confab is such a problem solving platform for the wave of terrorism unleashed on African nations by Al Shaabab in E Africa and Boko Haram in Nigeria. Next Russia has described the EU sanctions against it as ‘destructive and short sighted.’ Yet Russia has not shown any remorse on the downing of the Malaysian plane nor has it been able to persuade its Ukrainian rebels to allow international observers to have access to the Malaysian plane crash site. Neither has the Russian strongman President Vladmir Putin shown any remorse at least in terms of his body language in condemning the terrorist act. All the same the EU is not unaware that its 28 – member nations will suffer when Russia targets some trade links with EU nations such as food imports to Russia which is expected to adversely affect weak EU nations like Greece already in dire economic straits with attendant political uprisings and discontentment on EU financial palliatives. The EU nations are however united in their resolve that Russia should not get away with murder for its role in the downing of the Malaysian jet. The EU nations have described their sanctions as capable of inflicting the ’maximum pain on Russia’ and the ‘minimum pain on the EU’. That to me is vintage economic pragmatism in confronting terrorism at least in world airspace or global aviation. Lastly the activities of the Victims Support Fund in Nigeria as well as the required payment of allowances to recall our legislators to approve the president’s expenditure to fight terrorism are economic and funding issues and are really two sides of the same coin. The legislators can maintain their stand and call inevitably into question their sense of patriotism. The government on its own cannot watch idly while it is being made ineffective and toothless in the face bloody terrorism. Already there was news that the legislators have not been able to cash their huge monthly and quarterly allowances as and when due. It is therefore a ding dong tussle between the Executive and legislature although this time around the Presidency is winning the contest of wills in the court of public opinion as the death toll on terrorism rises on a daily basis and the law makers are not on their seats. Even the argument on diversion of funds for 2015 elections does not jell this time around. On the Victims Support Fund alone the personality of the Chairman of the Committe former Minister of Defence General Theophilus Danjuma speaks for itself in terms of accountability. Danjuma in accepting responsibility has stated that the insurgency is a war that is taking too long to put down. This week the Council of States made up of governors and former heads of state offered similar sentiments and went on to give a deadline of December for the war on terror to be concluded. That is how it should be. Surely, people like Danjuma should have been recalled to advise on how to end the war NOW. Rather than being called to raise funds for victims of a war they know is expensive and protracted in terms of time, and human lives while such people are being used to raise money for victims of a war without end running on a daily basis into an avoidable pyrrhic victory at the end, hopefully by December. It may sound wicked but to me putting all hands on deck to end the war is far more important than the opportunity cost of running the Victims Support Fund which seems to be a priority right now. Having a large such fund is like prolonging the war and that again is like treating terrorism with kid gloves or making money like a funeral parlour which is not in any way desirable in this nation at least for now.