The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Leaders, legitimacy and security

    Leaders in all walks of life especially politics derive their authority and legitimacy from the way and manner they assumed or took office. The authority here is the legitimate power to act and execute their mandate of office, while it is assumed that security is a sine qua non for the exercise of powers inherent in their designated offices. That normal assumption of security as given and constant in the execution of the given powers of powerful and mighty office holders is our food for thought today.We shall look at this topic from one end of the spectrum of global leadership to the other – from the peaceful and blissful, to the bloody and violent; from the sublime, if you like, to the utterly ridiculous and unbelievable.

    From the Middle East, that hot bed of violent politics especially the sectarian type, where US Secretary of State John Kerry just announced that there would be no role for embattled Syrian President Bashir Assad in post- war Syria, just as the US and Russia have agreed to a Syrian Conference to end the war; to the Netherlands where a much loved Queen abdicated in favor of her son to become King, the issues above are at work and at play. In Nigeria, state governors with huge security votes, lament and even cry in horror as the lexicon of terrorism expanded bloodily to include Ombatse Cult in Nasarawa state, in a security night mare that started with Boko Haram, and in recent times accommodated Baga and Bama, scenes of gory killings that included innocent women and children. In soccer, the surprise announcement of the retirement of the best Mnager in the world, Sir Alex Ferguson, the Manager of Manchester United, the biggest soccer brand that transcends continents, religion and cultures in terms of global followership was matched by the immediate announcement of his successor, David Moyes, the Manager of Everton . We end with an anecdote which is a faction, a mixture of facts and fiction, on how some leaders succeed to offices they desire, not through the normal succession procedures but through mischief, misinformation and virtual coup detats, even though they are not in the military.

    Again we go back to the Middle East and look at events in Syria and Israel the agent provocateur of Islamic militancy globally, just as Iran is the biggest supporter of global terrorism. That the US and Russia have agreed to a conference is at least a face saving playoff on their inability to decide and agree on what to do to end the bloody carnage in Syria. The US wants the Syrian rebels installed in Damascus but the Russians say they support Assad at all costs and will not allow the sort of exit that the allies inflicted on Gaddafi in Libya over the no flying zone UN resolution that Russia supported then , much to its chagrin and vexation later as Gaddafi was toppled . Either way though, Assad has lost legitimacy and authority over Syria and cannot eve guarantee his own security, not to talk of the security of his nation , which is an extreme negative example of the topic of the day. Israel on the other hand is behaving illegitimately in announcing this week, the building of 300 houses on occupied territories in violation of UN resolutions not to do so. Israel is unwittingly creating insecurity and opprobrium on itself in the way and manner it is misusing authority by building on occupied territories and claiming that this will not affect future peace talks when such news violently provoke Arabs and Muslims globally on a daily basis and attract young ones to bloody jihads to redress the situation in the region.

    The abdication and succession in The Netherlands provide a good example of a smooth transition of authority and legitimacy in a calm and secure environment even though role of the monarchy in The Netherlands is largely ceremonial. Just as it is in Great Britain where this type of transition is equally expected as the aged Queen Elizabeth 11 has started sharing royal duties with the fast ageing Prince Charles, the Prince of Wales and heir apparent in the English Royal line of succession.

    Similarly, the retirement and succession story on SirAlex Freguson in Old Trafford is a lesson on the smooth management of transfer of power, authority and legitimacy. The board of Man U asked for and got the recommendation of Sir Alex Ferguson and appointed that nominee as his successor and that is David Moyes. That is management of a soccer club in a secure environment. Compare that with Chelsea where the owner, Abramovich has fired six managers in a row because they lost matches he deemed as important. In fact, he picked Mourinho as Chelsea Manager by announcing that he would pick the Manager of the winning team in the Champions League Final between Monaco and Porto that year – and Mourinho was Manager of Porto which won. He fired the same Mourinho after he was unable to win the Champions League for Chelsea even though he won back to back Premier League titles for Chelsea. That to me is like Management and soccer politics in a war zone. In addition the news of Moyes announcement as Sir Alex Ferguson successor puts paid to Mourinho’s undisguised ambition to manage Man U. Obviously the Board of Man U do not want the war credentials or volatile management style of Mourinho to destabilise the orderliness and solid management success that Sir Alex has taken 26 years to build , to disappear in a jiffy. Hence the safe bet of appointing David Moyes, a son of the soil as it were, to ensure corporate and stable success at Man U.

    In contrast however, killing of 22 Police officers in Nasarawa state on their way to arrest members of the Ombatse Cult said to be notorious for forcing people to take oaths of allegiance to the cult, is a pathetic and sickening one in total negative defiance of the concepts being treated today. In killing Policemen, the Ombatse Cult whose name in the language of the area – Eggon – means ‘ we have just begun‘, has created anarchy in the area. Of course where security fails, as in this case, authority and legitimacy fly out of the window. So who is in charge to bring this blood thirsty cult to book? Is it the police it is killing with impunity; or the state governor who has an undisclosed amount to spend on security but which obviously has not been judiciously spent as Ombatse Cult is on rampage killing policemen? Surely there is a mix up in the understanding and application of the concepts of security and authority in Nasarawa state and this has made the security situation in the state untenable and I pity the people of that state and hope that this dangerous affliction will not spread to other states in the vicinity.

    Lastly, let me share an interesting story on succession politics, in a social institution in defiance of the spirit and order of the above concepts. It is the story of a leader who betrayed the authority that appointed him and took vengeance on another leader that asked the authority that appointed him to sack him for his disloyalty. The target of the vengeance had been leader of the vengeful leader’s team before the vengeful leader was appointed by the authority that he betrayed. The vengeful leader, in anticipation of his removal for his treachery, misinformed the leader of his team that there was a dangerous mutiny in his team and he should relinquish authority quickly and silently for his safety. The harassed and embarrassed leader in the interest of peace acquiesced and left office. Whereon the vengeful leader told members of the team that he was ready for a new office after the loss of his former office for treachery. The unsuspecting team members obliged him and gave him a new office as replacement for the leader he had misinformed to flee for his safety. This to me is a most fascinating story on the use of mendacity to gain power and calumny to sustain it. It flies in the face of integrity, loyalty and lacks any legitimacy. Which is a pity in any social institution as in this very interesting story . Please ponder awhile on the moral of this story, as I have more in the kitty.

     

  • Tenure, integrity and politics

    Tenure, integrity and politics

    I  confess  to an addiction, of   recent,with witty cartoons, which   is  bound to affect  my analysis on this page for some time and I crave the indulgence of readers in this regard . One of such cartoons this week told the story of a leader who selected two successors  with two traits, namely honesty and simplicity. Later he noted that the honest one lied with his health   while the   simple one was left to manage a complicated situation beyond his capacity. Eventually the leader was charged   with a proclivity   for choosing weak leaders  on the two occasions   he left office   thus creating problems for the political system  he  managed,  both as a soldier and as  a politician. Really I do not think anyone needs a soothsayer  to know  who  I   am  talking about.  But that is the setting of the stage  for my observations and analysis of today.

    Incidentally it   was reported this week  that at the 50th birthday   party  of Oby Ezekwesili,  former Minister of Education, a  former Head  of State, retired General Olusegun Obasanjo asked the Jonathan Administration to hold him responsible for the actions of his government instead of going after those who served in his administration, during his two terms of office from 1999  to 2007. The presidency has since denied that it was probing the former president’s tenure  of office. In addition it was widely reported that President Gooodluck Jonathan will not seek a second term in 2015  if the Senate approves a single 6-year term of office for the president and governors as proposed in the   on-going  constitution review  process. While  this was being digested however the news filtered that Bolivia’s President Evo Morales who came to office in 2005 has been given the green light   by the constitutional court in that nation to contest for office for a third term in the December 2014  elections although the term of office for a serving president when he came to office was two terms. So a comparison with the Nigerian situation and president is very well in order today.

    Similarly  the news that 96  year old Brazilian millionaire president of FIFA  Jorge  Havelange has resigned his position as Honorary President of FIFA  over  published  allegations   that he took bribe while in office between 1974  and 1988  engage our attention. Also  in football, I  take  a look at the just concluded UEFA  Champions league semi final  overall  7-0   walloping of Barcelona   by Bayern Munich and make bold to assert   that  the   German side were motivated or   propelled to their  superlative   performance    by  the prospect of their new manager from next season who once coached  Barcelona, more   than the mere wish to defeat the Catalan giants. I  will elaborate on this later.

    We  go back to the issues arising from the Oby Ezekwesili birthday namely that of accountability   and integrity, in that the former ‘Madam Due Process ‘had  asked the Jonathan Administration to account for a figure she gave that the Obasanjo Administration had left in the kitty. The present administration had given a different figure and there has been heated debate and acrimony over the matter , with some insinuating that efforts were made to scan contract files where the former Minister served to incriminate her for illegal acts while in office. She  too asserted boldly that she was not a politician but would say things as she saw them. Which was a fallacy on her part because the moment she became   a minister, she ipso facto became a bona fide politician,  to be treated  and regarded as such. But  then I admire her boldness in confronting her detractors on the matter as well as the insistence of her former boss that corruption has not been well tack led by the present administration.  This   is an issue that the present administration cannot wish away, and for which it should employ more time and resources to curb;  very much in the way and manner the Nigerian Judicial Council –NJC- is purging the Judiciary,  in spite of the  sordid and  embarrassing  daily revelations   from the inner recesses of our temples  of justice.

    On the second and third term issues in both Nigeria and Bolivia  in Latin America,   a comparison at least on the facts of the two  situations can  be  quite productive and educative. First  is the observation that what the former President Olusegun Obasanjo was unable to achieve is what President Evo Morales has just done so easily. Morales was entitled to two five year terms when he was elected in 2005. In 2009 he called for a referendum on a constitutional amendment for three presidential terms. The opposition insisted that he would not be eligible to contest after his two terms and the matter went to the constitutional court which has ruled that he could-leading to charges that he has bribed the judges of the constitutional court. Which  undoubtedly means that Morales can contest  again in the presidential elections next year 2014  for another 5-year term and that  effectively makes him president till 2019, as the longest serving president of his country.

    In the Nigerian situation the senate has proposed one six year – term but has precluded incumbents from participating in that dispensation . There was news that the president will not participate. But then he can always emulate the Bolivian example by asking for a referendum or going to the Supreme Court for judicial interpretation on his eligibility to contest as an incumbent and the determination of his tenure. This is not strange in Africa as Paul Biya,  aged  80, who  has been president in   neighboring Cameroon   since 1982 did it well before the expiration of his tenure and he was reelected for another 7–year term   just in 2011    and, he is still   there.  Nigeria however is  a different ball game and one can only watch as the incumbent president plies the slippery waters of presidential reelection  in a vibrant and quite volatile political system like Nigeria.

    In  the case  of  bribe involving Brazil’s aged Jorge   Havelange  I believe some people in FIFA  just wanted to settle old scores  and give the impression that FIFA  is  fighting corruption and is quite democratic,  which is not true . The  commission that Havelange   took was normal at the time of his tenure and was not regarded  as a bribe then .   Havelange   was a millionaire who reportedly used his resources to make FIFA  financially independent  during his tenure ,  at a time Sepp Blatter was FIFA’s Secretary. Havelange was shocked that Sepp Blatter  current FIFA  president, was planning to succeed him  then as FIFA’s  president but could do nothing about it and the crafty Blatter has been in charge ever since with the support of people like Issa  Hayatou who has been president  of African soccer or CAF    for years. Hayatou   has made any change impossible in the leadership of African soccer, as long as Sepp Blatter- who brought the world cup to Africa – is in charge, in a  ‘rub my back and I rub yours’  arrangement that is the modus operandi in FIFA’s  global politics and management.

    Lastly let me say again  that the issue of tenure  had a role in the fantastic performance of Bayern Munich in trashing  Barcelona in the semi final of the UEFA  Champions league , thus creating an all  German final  at England’s Wembley  Stadium  at the end of May. This really is my conclusion from the facts of the end of tenure of the present Bayern Munich  Manager, Jupp  Heynckes and the man  to succeed him from next season  Pep  Guardiola,   former Manager of Barcelona. The owners of Bayern have hired former Barcelona coach Guardiola  to take over the management of the club from next season. As  a result when the draws for the semi finals were made the present  Manager  Heynckes  was advised to seek advice from his successor on Barcelona but he refused. He insisted he needed no advice from the man  his bosses had already chosen to succeed him as he knows enough about Spanish clubs including Barcelona  and he  went to prove just that. His Bayern demolished Barcelona in a display of sheer power , speed and masterful soccer skills that had no regard for the reputation of Barcelona or its star Messi, the best player in the world today.

    It  is my contention that dressing room politics triumphed over board room politics in the way and manner the Bayern players performed. They  may not have said as much,  but they were showing   loyalty, solidarity   if not sympathy  for  their outgoing manager and at the same time telling the management and bosses at Bayern  that their existing manager was as good if not better than his incoming,   signed  and sealed replacement.  I  expect the Bayern team to eventually beat Borussia Dortmund in the all-  German final. That is, if they had not burnt themselves up with the grudge match with Barcelona, in which team spirit gave a strong, valiant   and    standing,  salute and farewell   to the tenure and quality of their Manager   – to redress the  imbalance of his being replaced  by a  much younger  Manager from a now beaten and disgraced Barcelona.

  • On kid gloves and Robin Hoods

    On kid gloves and Robin Hoods

    This   week,  in  Borno  State, in the fishing town of Baga,  on the border with Chad,  soldiers of  the  antiterrorist Joint Multinational Force razed the town and left over 180 civilians dead. In  a new  film  in France   recently    a driver   who  made away with stolen money in a bank van became an instant hero. Also  in Nigeria, a cartoon which  caricatured   harsh  punishment for oil thieves while oil money thieves are being left to go literally  scot  free, set  the ball rolling today  on how ready the Nigerian government is, in its self- set task of ridding the nation of the debilitating cancer of corruption. In  between these happenings come the comical or bizarre story of the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni giving out a sack  of containing $100, 000 to some youths in his country in fulfillment of his campaign  promise, which really puts one in a quandary   as to  whether to laugh or   to  cry.

    My  contention today is that these events  or news items show levity in the treatment of some serious issues by  some  global leaders,  the interpretation of which can lead to a charge of nonchalance bordering on irresponsibility in some instances. In addition,  such attitude can lead to irrational or unexpected reactions   or  conclusions, which nevertheless  attract popular acclaim   and applause due to inertia or abject inaction on the part of  those in authority. In    analytic  terms, I will   first tag each event I have highlighted and go on to elaborate on each at length.

    First  the event in Baga was an overkill, in that the army killed an ant with a sledge hammer but this  would not have arisen  in the first  instance,  if the Boko Haram menace had not been treated with kid gloves by the authorities culminating in the setting up of the Amnesty Committee. The  glorification of a robber in a legally   vibrant and active nation like France is evidence of  populist frustration and revulsion   in  French society with a president that campaigned on fighting corruption and got elected only to discover that his weapon for the anti corruption crusade is itself tainted. The cartoon on oil thieves and oil  money thieves makes a clear distinction in terms of criminality and its oil brands  and throws a challenge to the authorities  to either fish or cut bait .In  Uganda, Yoweri Museveni’s  gift   on the surface  makes a  mockery of the concept of transparency and accountability, which his  government claims to be defending  by claiming that he   did not   take the money to Las  Vegas or keep it in his private account. Now  let us  start the chain of elaborations.

    With Baga,  the army or multinational task force overreached itself in the performance of its duty. The government has said it would investigate because it had set out rules of engagement to the task force beforehand. But the task  force has said that  Boko  Haram used civilians as a human shield. Who  is the government believing – the task  force or Boko  Haram?  The  task force undoubtedly was shooting for the kill to send a message   of deterrence  which was its  mandate   to  engage  the terrorists. Is that mandate being questioned now by the same authorities that gave it? Some  Northern  leaders  reportedly said that the Baga  incident would affect the Amnesty Committees work. One can then ask – in what direction?  Is  it in the suspension   or cancellation of the Amnesty  Committees work? Or  the continuation of the   woolly,  tacit  respect or recognition, albeit    grudging or masked, that some  Northern leaders  seem to have for Boko Haram ?  Either way, the confidence of the Joint Task Force in tackling terrorism must not be sacrificed on the altar   or excuse  of investigations into  the killing of civilians, which is condemnable under any circumstances, including the massacre at Baga.

    In  France  the robber film hero  was a driver who made away with 11.6 m euros in  a bank van  while his work colleagues were on break. He was jailed 3 years but in the scene in the film at which he made away with his loot, the audience applauded. This was because on the day the film was opening  in France   the man in charge of the  French  government’s tax force   against  tax fraud, Jerome Cahusac  revealed that he had  dodged tax to the tune of   600,000 euros  in  illicit account in a tax haven,   off shore. Which means  the game keeper had become the poacher. This  was in France where  the government got elected on the promise to tax 75%  of the earnings of anyone above 1m euros which had led to some gifted rich Frenchmen fleeing France. The applause  for the robber may sound weird. But its message is clear.  What is good for the goose is good for the gander in terms of punishment and that French film audience felt that the driver had just  been made a scape goat. This  happened in  a France where‘ outrage  over ruinous bankers, rising  unemployment and political corruption has  become the order  of the day‘. At    the end of the day   however the robber Toni Musulin was   reportedly celebrated in a pop song and seen as a Robin Hood figure in France. Which  really is a great pity for the rule of law anywhere in the world, including France which has strict laws and  where  a suspect is presumed guilty until proven otherwise unlike  in our system inherited from the British colonialists which is the other way round.

    In  the Nigerian cartoon on brands  of oil thieves you may say that the oil thief is being glorified at the expense of the oil money thief and you may be right. But  the Nigerian government is not allowing sleeping dogs to lie in its fight against corruption and I will show that with two stories this week.  The EFCC  was reported to have secured a court order restraining oil subsidy  thieves from using their account in the UK. Surely  this is commendable but what of the accounts of the subsidy  thieves,  who are really the oil money thieves, in Nigeria? Anyway  an answer  to that may be long in coming. This is because no less a person than the Nigerian  President Goodluck Jonathan is reported to have said  that the extent of corruption in Nigeria  has been exaggerated. This was  in reaction to a report submitted to the US Congress  by new  US Secretary  of State John Kerry that said  all arms of the Nigerian government is riddled with corruption. The  Nigerian President   disagreed   and said that the way government business had been conducted under his presidency had led to a reduction in the level of corruption in the nation. Which  really is  assuring considering the fact that the president may be forgiven for being a judge in his own case given his usual innocence on virtually all issues  facing the nation including the Boko Haram terror. Yet  in the presidential system of government that we run,  the buck stops on his table at Aso Rock. Undoubtedly our President has a huge penchant for treating grave issues with kid gloves and must be  persuaded   that he needs bare knuckles to face the challenges confronting the nation to stop the emergence of unlikely Robin Hoods  lurking in our midst.

    In  the Museveni $100,000  sack saga in Uganda,  a  presidential aide justified the action on the ground that the Ugandan president gave the beneficiaries the money directly instead of giving civil servants  and that the money had been budgeted for, which is an innovation  in government budgeting as we know it  in today’s world. The Ugandan president also gave out 15 okadas and a bus to the youths and really Iam  at a loss on what to make of the development.  Was  Museveni right to have done things this way to fight corruption? Or  has he personified state funds to fulfill electoral promises? Is  this a matter  for condemnation or emulation in the context of African politics as we know it today? I  really do not want to jump to conclusions and would rather watch events as they unfold in Uganda which some time ago introduced zero party  politics  that also kept power in the hands of Museveni. Surely a riddle in an enigma is abroad in Uganda or indeed Africa ,  and one must   pause  and ponder   seriously, as it unfolds   right before our eyes.

  • The high costs of security and diplomacy

    The high costs of security and diplomacy

    US Secretary of State John Kerry was in the Middle East and South East Asia on a diplomatic shuttle with a security background recently. He brokered peace between Turkey and Israel, both allies of the US in the area. He later went to Japan and S Korea to assure both nations, staunch allies of the US in the Pacific, of American steadfastness in the face of an unpredictable and daily dangerous N Korea – in the on- going saga of threats and counter threats by Kim Jong un, N Korea’s youthful leader to pulverize neighbor S. Korea. Kerry had barely returned to his office when a bomb went off at the prestigious Boston Marathon in Massachussets in the US shifting US security priorities from nuclear threat to Homeland Security.

    Such is the volatile nature of security and diplomacy for the world’s leading nations in their resolve and duty to protect their citizens at home and abroad, no matter the odds. But then, the circumstances can be so unbelievably different or similar for the world powers and the other nations of the world, that one finds it difficult to accept that after all said and done, security is really the bottom line as each nation invariably insists. I will illustrate with some interesting examples.

    In Iraq this week the government executed 21 people after they were found guilty of acts of terrorism in Iraqi courts. In the UK, the government deployed 40, 000 policemen and women for the funeral procession route of the late British PM Baroness Margaret Thatcher last Wednesday April 17. In Nigeria the government has set up an Amnesty Committee for Boko Haram terrorists in spite of protestations from the Christian Association of Nigeria – CAN – whose members reeled out the statistics on the number of churches destroyed [200] and Christians killed -2500 –since the insurgency started. CAN noted that Boko Haram so far has carried out every threat it has issued with impunity. The supposed rationale or offered motive for each and every one of these events therefore form the kernel of our discussion today.

    Starting with the Kelly brokered peace in the Middle East, all sides seem to be beneficiaries and one cannot help wondering why the dispute over some Turks who tried to break the Israeli siege on Gaza got killed sometime ago, lasted this long. This is because Israel needs Turkey to keep an eye on Iran, a mutual foe of both, especially now that Syria is falling apart and Iran has offered a shoulder as expected, and the besieged Syrian leader Assad has warned the West that it would pay a huge price similar to the one the Soviets paid in Afghhanistan, in intervening in Syria. In the face of such bare threats and with the rump USSR, Russia, backing Syria all the way, Kelly’s Peace is a welcome development; a realignment and consolidation of forces of sorts, for the west in the Middle East.

    As noted earlier Kelly proceeded to calm nerves in Japan and S Korea but the N. Korean leader has really shown his hand in asking for lifting of sanctions before any dialogue with the US and S Korea. Which reduces the so called nuclear and security threat that had the west and even N Korea’s ally China fretting so much, to an economic threat of needed bread and butter for the impoverished citizens of N Korea. I expect the west to capitulate to N Korea’s demand in the interest of global peace. But then a strong but wrong global signal would have been sent to a nation like Iran, similarly under UN sanctions, to persist in its quest for nuclear energy on the excuse of needed electricity, in the now realistic hope, that when it has nuclear capability it can call for dialogue to eliminate UN sanctions. Either way global security is boldly threatened and diplomacy is seriously challenged and stressed extravagantly.

    With regard to the Boston Marathon bomb explosion, it is the way that the US President Barak Obama reacted in assuring Americans of their safety even though his security machinery had no clue as to the perpetrators of the bombing in the immediate aftermath of the incident, that impressed me. Obama first said that the bombing could not be called a terrorist act and people should not jump to conclusions. Later, he said after briefings by his security aides, that it was terrorism because a bomb had been used on innocent people. He gave kudos to the Governor and Mayor involved and expressed unflinching confidence in the local and federal security forces on the ground and assured all Americans that the culprits would be caught and face the full weight of US justice. That assurance was worth its weight in gold and lowered the high cost of security in the way it generated a spontaneous feeling of safety and security in Americans even though the terrorists have not been apprehended. Even a man apprehended later told the police that he was not the Boston Marathon bomber no matter the suspicion leading to his arrest after the bombing.

    You may need to compare the high net worth value of Obama’s assurance in the face of apparent insecurity, with the deterrence factor in the Iraqi manner of executing tried terrorists. There is no need to scoff at the Iraqis as they have a rich tradition and history on legal matters. The Coded laws of Hammurabi came out of Mesopotamia and that was ancient Iraq. Furthermore, as the way the Iraqis executed Saddam Hussein showed, Iraqis need to see the bodies of those oppressing or terrorizing them to really believe such murderous pests are out of the way and they – Iraqis – are safe. This really is a cultural issue. Which in a manner of ‘the end justifying the means‘, has the same soothing effect on the Iraqis as the Obama safety assurance strategy had on American citizens.

    The recent successful Thatcher funeral, in spite of threats from the trade unions and miners, was a tribute to the efficiency and understanding of the British security apparatus. You can say on Britain in the context of this topic that the British public has been given value for money for whatever the government has spent on diplomacy and security over the Thatcher funeral. The head of the Police in charge in London conceded the right of protests to those wanting to, and said this was necessary in a democracy and the police were ready, and they were, and I congratulate them as I did on the last London 2012 Olympics and also the successful royal wedding. On a lighter note though, let me advise those who thought that it was in bad taste to celebrate Thatcher’s death at Trafalgar Square as some people did, to have a rethink and visit the south west of Nigeria where obituaries announce funerals as celebrations of life. If after that they still feel such celebrations are in bad taste, then I accuse them of sheer ethnocentrism, no more, no less.

    Lastly, let me round up with the Boko Haram Amnesty for which a committee has finally been set up by the Federal government of Nigeria. Since Boko Haram has reportedly said it needed no Amnesty but should give one or a pardon to Nigeria instead, I think the fact that the government still deemed it fit to form the Amnesty Committee is in bad taste and is most unfair to the victims of Boko Haram terrorism. Anyway, will the formation of the Committee lead to a reduction of our security expenditure? The answer is no. Will the setting up of the Amnesty Committee assuage the feelings of those whose loved ones were killed by Boko Haram ? No.

    To me it is the duty of government to make the nation governable and safe for its citizens. This Committee appears to be an appeasement for a section of the nation over another and a bias for one religion at the expense of the other. Muslims in this nation have shouted to the rooftops several times that Islam is a religion of peace and that they condemn the terrorism of Boko Haram. Government should listen to them and do its duty to uphold their concern and belief instead of pandering to the tastes and anxiety of those who may have lost touch with their followers both in the corridors of leadership and power, wether cultural, political or socio economic.

  • Leaders, justice and legacies

    Leaders, justice and legacies

    I use anecdotes and personalities to dilate on the topic of today. I start with the premise that leaders in what ever walks of life must aim to be just and fair in whatever endeavour they pursue, and their legacies must be measured by that immutable yard stick, at all times and in all seasons. Let me state that the death of the Iron Lady of Britain Baroness Margaret Thatcher this week provided the prodding for a topic of this nature. Secondly an interview I read about former Commonwealth Secretary General Emeka Anyaoku who turned 80 recently provided another impetus. Thirdly a lecture I attended last Tuesday at the prestigious Island Club, given by the Governor of Oyo State, Senator Abiola Ajimobi, together with the news of the cleaning of the Augean stable of our judiciary by the helmsman of the system, the Chief Justice of Nigeria Justice Mariam Alooma Mouktar came in to complete the jigsaw puzzle on this topic. My approach to this analysis will include making passing comments and in some cases leaving hanging statements to enable readers to reach their own conclusions.

    Starting with Baroness Margaret Thatcher – 1925 – 2013 – there is no doubt that a great woman of substance has passed on. The time of her death however deserves some comments even more than her legacies, which are monumental and historical. She has died during the tenure of her party -the Conservative Party, leading a coalition government, and as such British PM David Cameron will be the best chief mourner Thatcher could have wished for. Thatcher’s main legacy economically was that her policies on privatisation, free market economy and cutting the powers of trade unions on strikes were not changed but adopted by her successor opposition Labour Party government under Tony Blair. In diplomacy her main achievement was in collaborating with Ronald Reagan in bringing down the communist rule and hegemony of the former USSR under Gorbachev. Thatcher visited the Soviet Union and declared that she could ‘do business’ with the new Soviet leader and that business was giving freedom to the 15 former Soviet States to go their separate ways .In this regard Eastern Europeans loved her just as Argentines hated her for launching an armada across the world to defeat the Argentina over the Falklands Islands . For her feat, the Argentines tried and sent to jail the military president who led them during the Falklands war – General Galtieri for taking Argentina to war unprepared . Although one could say Thatcher could not have died at a better time some, would say she couldn’t have died at a worse time. If you saw in recent times, the riots in European capitals in the euro zone, offshoots of the adoption of Thatcherism in these European nations –Portugal, Ireland. Greece and Spain – the PIGS nations of the EU- then you could say that Thatcher has died while her legacy of Thatcherism is in tatters in Europe and has led to the London riots in recent times.

    That would explain why some people were reportedly celebrating her death in Glasgow, Bristol and London and were reported to have said rather cruelly that she should be buried in private, but they would like to know her grave, so that they can go and dance on it. In addition, the Argentines may have had the last laugh as the new Pope in the Vatican is one of them and Pope Francis has already used the word Malvinas, Argentina’s name for the Falklands, to refer to the Falklands, much to the chagrin and consternation of the British who have not invited Argentina’s President Katherine Katchener to Thatcher’s elaborate burial on April 17. All the same, I think Thatcher has earned her ceremonial burial and her chequered place in British history and this is shown by the fact that the Queen will be attending the funeral, only the second of such Her Majesty will be attending, since the funeral of the great Winston Churchill, Britain’s war time PM. Personally, even though I disagree with some of Thatcher’s anti welfare policies I cannot but admire her leadership credentials of firmness, focus, guts and grit no matter how grudgingly I give that admiration or salute. May her great soul rest in peace Amen.

    As I was pondering on the Emeka Anyaoku interview, I heard the radio news that the Lagos State government of Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola has named a new housing estat, the Millenium Estate after the former Commonwealth DG. Really I do not think that has stolen my thunder on the contents of that interview. In the interview Chief Anyaoku narrated how he was able to remain the Commonwealth DG after Nigeria was suspended when the late General Sanni Abacha killed Tsaro Wiwa and co in spite of late appeals from world leaders including the great Nelson Mandela. He was also able to show how he resigned from the Nigerian diplomatic service during the civil war in protest against the pogrom during the civil war and he was still able to keep his job as a Nigerian diplomat working at the Commonwealth Secretariat. After the civil war he came over to the Nigerian side to help with the Gowon’s post war 3Rs of Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Reconciliation and again he was able when asked why he did not support the Nigeria war effort to insist that he could not do so because of the pogrom against his people.

    I state these events to show the leadership virtues of fairness, justice and respect for human dignity inherent in this distinguished diplomat’s actions while in office in spite of great constraints and challenges of his posting and office In addition Chief Anyaoku identified the present problems facing Nigeria as first the high cost of running our government involving 36 states, 36 bureaucracies and 36 legislatures leading to our spending 75% of our resources and revenue as running costs. The second he called negative politics in which people go to politics not to serve but to enrich themselves. The third problem he traced to the failure of our federal system due to military intervention and the foistering or imposition of the military’s unitary command structure and line of command on our federal constitution.

    To me what the distinguished Nigerian diplomat is saying is that we have been running a federation with weak states and a strong center which is more like a unitary state and is anything but a federal system which can not lead to growth and prosperity of the federating units. This however is in sharp contrast to the position taken by the Oyo State Governor Senator Abiola Ajimobi in his brilliant Business Lecture at the Island Club last Tuesday . The Governor held the view that the 36 states provide opportunities for development and investment at the grassroots for the three tiers of government. This to me tallied with what the Governor of Oshun State Ogbeni Aregbesola said at a different forum that the ACN states will use the needs of the people they govern to drive economic growth. Governor Ajimobi went on to say that the ACN states are driven by efficiency and effectiveness in contrast to the large and unwieldy size of the ruling party which lacked both virtues. The Oyo State governor then highlighted the challenges of state development in our federalism which included the lopsided revenue allocation formula which gives the FGN 52.8 % of revenue and the 36 states 26.72% and 774 local governments share 20%; the delineation of responsibilities in the Concurrent and Legislative Lists. According to the governor, the FGN controls 68 legislative items under the Exclusive List and shares 24 with State governments on the Concurrent List; and the issue of security being ceded to the FGN as well as agriculture and the Land Use Act which he criticized.

    However it was in the manner of the delivery of his lecture that the Oyo State governor stole the heart of his audience. He displayed great mastery of the subject and even during the Question and Answer session that I anchored, he was witty, and quite knowledgeable in the simple and disarming way he answered questions . Indeed when the question was put that Nigerian politicians are lawless he was able to react that the masses benefit more from politicians than soldiers in that politicians distribute the largesse of office, whilst soldiers in government hoard the national patrimony to their family. He blamed Military intervention for the pervading culture of corruption in the nation and noted that the politicians must keep shouting wolf when even there is none at least to keep the military at bay and avert military intervention by all means. He then went on to market the achievements of his government in Oyo State which was quite easy and effortless on his part as he was an oil Marketing Guru before he went into politics.

    Lastly the news that Nigeria’s first female Chief Justice has given the red card to fraudulent judges has shown that the Nigerian judicial system is determined to play its role as expected in our constitution. Indeed I recall that the statue of justice is that of a blindfolded woman wielding a sword to show that justice will be done blindly and without favors, no matter whose horse is gored. To me Justice Alooma Mouktar is a ‘Daniel Come to Judgement ‘as in Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice, when the young lady lawyer asked the wicked Shylock to take his pound of flesh without the loss of any pint of Blood from his hapless debtor. The Nigerian CJN has reportedly said that any judge found to have given a biased judgement will face the full wrath of the law. Already she has set up 23 Committees to investigate allegations of judicial malfeseance against as many judges. She has said that judges will be judged on their performance by the report of the Performance and Evaluation Report set up by the National Judicial Council. Especially, judges who are found guilty of selling judgements will be shown the exit, disgracefully from the judiciary.

    What this boils down to is that Nigeria is now about to experience real rule of law. For when judges dispense justice impartially, according to the law, the citizens feel safe and confident to seek redress from the courts as expected in an effective democracy where the courts are the final arbiter in any disputes in the polity. This has a way of stabilizing any political system and Nigeria cannot afford to be an exception. In a nation being terrorized in the North by Boko Haram for whom the Northern leaders have asked for amnesty – which the leadership of Boko Haram has rejected, saying it has done nothing wrong and that it should be asked to give pardon instead to the Nigerian state for killing its members, a just and honest judiciary is an urgent and much needed institutional relief to adjudicate on issues of amnesty and terrorism and give direction to avert the present trend and drift towards political mischief, confusion and anarchy in our governance structure. Justice Alooma Mouktar has my support and admiration and she reminds me again of the late Margaret Thatcher and I wish her all the best in the daunting and salutary goal she has set herself of purging corruption in our temple of justice as the Iron Lady of the Nigerian judiciary. For the sake of the Nigerian nation and all of us I say – Best of luck, Iron Lady , God Speed and Protection Amen.

  • Social  equities  and values

    Social  equities  and values

    When  the concept  of Federal  Character  was introduced into  governance in Nigeria, I  believe the motive was to  ensure fairness in the allocation of public offices such that  a sort of balance  and equity is achieved in terms of such distribution of positions. Thus the concept was a good one to achieve fairness such that no section of the Nigerian society took unfair advantage of the  other in terms of a head start for economic growth and use or misuse of power.  Globally too,   societies  and political systems try to reduce inequalities and disparities in incomes  between the rich and the poor so as to spread the national wealth in the hope that this will minimize friction and envy which can overheat the socio  economic environment and lead to violence  and chaos if not outright anarchy. I  acknowledge at the outset of this piece that there is not much difference between the two major ideologies capitalism  and socialism in this regard as  the advent of welfarism has been   suitable a bridge of sort in ameliorating over the years, the extreme claims of either ideology. Yet  some glaring anomalies exist   globally ,  in terms of values  and equity  both on the corporate and political scenes ,  in the execution of socio economic programs of  the  ideological divide  of these two systems, that we shall consider  here  today.

    Let  us start  with the incredible threat  this week  by North Korea that it will  attack  the US and that the attack includes a possibility of a nuclear attack. Some have said  this is a gimmick  but supposing it turns out to be  a real threat,  as the US  itself has acknowledged, and is not taking chances. What  could be the motive of the young man now in Charge in North Korea? In  Nigeria a list of key positions in INEC – the nations Independent National Electoral Commission  – was published  and almost all these positions were occupied by Nigerians  from the North West  and North East of the nation. What happened to the concept of Federal character and why the lopsidedness or monopoly of two geopolitical zones, in a nation of six of such, in the organization of elections which is key to the survival of any democracy,  not to talk of a volatile one like Nigeria?

    In  the UK  a new categorization of social classes has been evolved by sociologists who believe the old ones are not realistic enough in today’s modern society and new realities. Again the essence of this is to identify and   acknowledge socio economic disparities  and the sociologists say they have used three criteria namely economic  status, social standing  and culture to identify the new social order which is quite interesting. In  the same UK, Barclays, the banking giant,  commissioned a study on what led to its waywardness in cheating on interest rates on LIBOR  charges    some time ago    and the CEO  of the bank agreed with the report which  concluded that Barclays had deviated from its original culture of honesty and integrity and employees were more interested in short term gains  motivated by the greed to get bonuses.

     Also,  in the US  it  is the Republican Party that is left holding the can in defending the    Defence of Marriages Act   of 1996 –  DOMA – a law on marriages between  a man  and a woman. This  is because the Obama Administration  has abandoned the law  and refused to defend it because it discriminates against giving benefits to  gay couples  and the Obama Adminstration is committed to promoting gay rights.  DOMA  was made during the Clinton  presidency although   both Bill and Hillary Clinton are  now for gay rights like Obama. Yet  in Africa the  Democratic    Party  of the Obamas  and the Clintons is more popular than the Republican Party which is upholding traditional marriage between a man and a woman  which is the accepted norm in most African nations today. Really  it  is of such of surprises in terms of values and conceptions, strange bedfellows you may call them, that I want to talk about today   in the context of changing values and the quest for equity in pursuing such emerging  values.

    In  the Vatican  in Rome, Italy,  the new Pope  Francis set the tone of his Papacy by refusing to live for now in the posh palatial residence of his predecessors,  preferring to share a residence with some Cardinals instead . For a  new Pope who remembered to go  back  and pay his hotel bill  after his election as Pope, the message is that he will lead in a way that will not leave  simplicity, accountability and transparency, too far behind and he will  not be too far from the poor and needy and even prisoners who were included in the first set of people he prayed for on assuming office. In addition   the Francis Papacy’s hall mark is respect for the poor and a resolve  to lift those in the mire of poverty out of their misery. That to me looks quite commendable and laudable on its own. Let us see   however, how the other issues I have raised fair in comparison with Pope Francis’ new resolve in the Vatican.

    We start with  the list of INEC  directors in which almost all of them come from the NE  and NW of Nigeria. This is anti federal character and against the unity of our nation. Indeed it makes a mockery of the concept of unity in diversity and calls for an urgent explanation from Professor Jega , the Head of INEC  and a distinguished professor of political science. Professor Jega needs to be reminded that the Federal Character issue was initiated to make the north, which was lagging behind the south in terms of education,  to catch   up  and  a lot of catching up has been achieved ever since and some are even wondering if  the federal character is still relevant or useful any more. Definitely, no one will however  suggest or moot that it should be substituted or replaced by another northernisation, north easternisation  or   north  westernization   of  federal institutions in Nigeria, especially an important one like INEC. There is urgent need  therefore  for INEC to make a statement announcing an urgent review of its management structure,  as this is an issue that has damaged the impartiality  or credibility of INEC before the whistle has been blown on the 2015 elections. Or else,  the only fair and credible alternative is for Jega to make way for a more federal minded and fairer referee of elections,  instead of  the  blindly partisan one that the INEC list   key  directors has revealed.

    We  go next to North Korea where I believe there is real danger to world peace stemming from the economic quandary that N Korea has created for itself in having food shortages that make it unable to feed itself. The present leader’s grand father and father used the same tactics of nuclear threat to barter for less sanctions and more funds from the international community. This young new leader however looks so immature that one cannot ignore his threats. Perhaps because he thinks South Korea has a new president who happens to be a woman he can bluff his way through. But the new S Korean president too is the daughter of a former military president  and  is well groomed for the job and is familiar  with the antics of the ancestors of the young N Korean leader. Anyway I pray fervently that global peace is not disturbed unnecessarily  by a cash strapped, exuberant  and inexperienced N Korean leader, with his hand on the nuclear button.

    The  Barclays issue on culture drift speaks for itself and it shows again how financialism  has affected  the global financial business. Barclays was  a bank built on integrity, hard work and honesty which went to the dogs as employees were promoted based on their  greed for success and not hard work. Bonuses  overtook work ethics and customers and stakeholders interests  and this led to eventual tarnishing of the hard earned image of Barclays as a leading  global banking institution famous for the honesty and hard  work of its employees and management.  It  was nice however  to hear the Barclays CEO who commissioned the study say that    although  the document made uncomfortable reading but the right lessons will be learnt from it. That  really is the good news from a dismal past   for the present Barclays bank.

    In  Britain  a survey involving sociologists from London School of Economics and an American university has identified 7 social classes in the UK to replace the normal three of Upper, Upper Middle Class and working class. The seven range from the elite , to the affluent ending with the seventh – called the Precariat which are people with the lowest level  of social, economic and cultural capital. The beauty of this categorization  is that you can know your class yourself by   putting in data on your computer. I am sure this will interest advertising companies and those involved in making consumer goods tremendously. Also political parties which don’t want to waste time and energy  chasing the wrong target audience are well advised to tune in to this new class classification gimmick. Definitely    economic planning, demography, census and politics will benefit globally from this new class categorization that has started in the UK. The  thrill here is that you know your  position on the social ladder yourself based on your statistics. That I am  sure will minimize the feeling of inferiority which the earlier categorization seem to inflict on those down the  social  ladder. That  to me reduces tension and envy. Which really is some sort of equity which  can be a good booster to strive up the social ladder, and the society   could be  better for it, at  the end of the day.

  • Brics of change and hope

    Brics of change and hope

    This week in Durban, S Africa and for the fifth time in recent times, five nations met for a meeting to determine

    their financial fortunes and future by pooling their resources to help themselves, nations in their various environments and ultimately the whole world. The countries are Brazil, Russia, India, China and S Africa now popularly called the Brics nations – from an acronym of the first letters of their respective names. So its not as if one does not know the correct spelling of bricks as in ‘bricks and mortars’ but I reckon it is better to get used as quickly as possible to the vocabulary of change and hope for the developing nations of the world that the community of Brics nations – the leading global emerging markets represent in the present age and time.

    I explore today the promise of the nations in Brics for a new world order in the light of events concerning them individually in recent times as well as the conclusions and strategy that have emerged from their Durban meeting ; and what that portends for the future of the entire world in terms of growth and prosperity. I also share with readers my experience at the 5th Bola Tinubu Colloquium that I attended at MUSON which had as its theme – Beyond the Merger; ‘A National Movement For Change‘ –A New Generation Speaks -to mark the 61st Anniversary of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the former governor of Lagos State and co author of the best selling book, ‘Financialism‘- How the financial system drains the economy.

    Let me track the Brics nation first by events that concern or emanate from their domains this last week or days. First is Brazil which had to close one of the stadia it is to use for the 2016 Olympics because of stadium cover problems but which just signed a 30bn dollar buffer agreement with China which guarantees it that much in times of liquidity crunch or financial crisis like the global melt down of 2008. Next is Russia whose self- exiled Jewish oligarch Boris Berezosky was said to have died from hanging in London according to British police. India as at now is getting negative publicity from the way its authorities have not been able to nail in the bud the menace of rape in its major cities and towns. The Chinese public on its own is enthralled with the emergence of the beautiful wife of China’s new president Xi Jinping on the world stage and her accompanying her husband on the foreign state visits , a rarity for China’s leaders since the purge of the wife of late Chairman Mao after the Cultural Revolution. Also in spite of the euphoria of hosting the Brics nations’ fifth meeting, S. Africa braces itself for the inevitable as the great but legendary icon, Nelson Mandela, is admitted to hospital for respiratory ailment. Indeed at the Bola Tinubu Colloquium last Thursday, I had to hold my breath when the Chairman of the Colloquium, Nobel laureate Professor Wole Soyinka asked for a moment of silence for the dead as I thought he was going to mention Mandela but it turned out he was remembering the late Chinua Achebe and Chief Wole Awolowo who both died recently.

    Let us go back to the Brics nations, this time as a composite unit. Given the organization of the two – day event preceded by a business forum the Brics Summit seemed to be modeled after CHOGM – the Commonwealth Heads of Governments meeting, which Nigeria hosted in 2005. A Brics Business Forum has been formed as such to deepen economic ties between member nations. Most importantly an Infrastructure and Development Bank is to be formed although not immediately but within a year. In a CNN interview India’s Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram handled the announcement of this calmly but masterfully. He told the frantic CNN reporter anxious about the domiciliation of the Brics Development Bank that the planning has commenced and its location will be agreed by member nations. On the issue of a shift of world economic power from US and Western Europe being on the way, as the questioner said, the Indian Minister eloquently and firmly said the shift of global economic power has already shifted from the west to the east especially Asia and there was nothing anyone can do about it. Which really thrilled me no end the way it was said and that brings me to the crux of the matter and that is that the Durban fifth Brics nations meeting which was an important and historic meeting. To me it is indeed similar to the post second world war Bretton Woods agreement of the victorious allies – mainly US, Britain, and France who set up the World Bank and IMF for infrastructural development and loans under ideological conditions of free market economies and democracy for borrowers, a situation which has brought many economies to poverty and misery subsequently on taking the loans. This has culminated in the unfortunate creation of another acronym on debts and dread of defaults for nations now called PIGS- namely Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain now the pauper nations of the euro zone, being bailed out now by Germany, which itself was reconstructed from the ruins of war by funds provided by the US Marshall Plan. So in effect then the Brics Development Bank will rise out of the collapse or withering away of the Bretton Woods Agreement of yesteryears and its aftermath; and from the ashes of the failed IMF loan conditionalities which had no regard for the social costs inherent in loan conditions of layoffs and austerity measures that treated human capital like cold figures and inanimate objects.

    More importantly though the Brics nations in Durban acknowledged and appreciated the efforts of the euro zone to get out of its financial crisis and is willing to learn from it but will not be hurried unduly on the path of economic growth it has chosen, by the western media. The fact that the first foreign state visit of China’s new President was to Russia and on the way to Durban showed cohesion in the workings and strategies of the Brics nations. As at now China is the biggest global consumer of oil and Russia its biggest supplier and oil is a dollar business and even the US whose currency it is, is not a member of Brics. So who is calling the shots in the global oil business other than these two Brics nations? Surely nobody but them and definitely not the US.

    In the case of Russia whose leader Vladmir Putin followed his Chinese guest to Durban so closely, the death of the Jewish oligarch Berezosky may be a sort of relief given the way Putin and his predecessor in office Boris Yeltsin were beholden to the Jewish oligarchs in Russia. In the early nineties when Yeltsin succeeded Gorbachev in the post Glasnost era and the marketisation of the Russian economy was underway in a highly charged and lawless manner, Yeltsin reportedly needed funds to run the Russian economy and win reelection as the Communists were poised to return to power. Yeltsin then evolved the–loans for shares deal –with the seven oligarchs, six of whom were Jews, and included Berezosky and Chelsea football club owner Abramovich. The deal enabled Yeltsin to have funds and win reelection but left Russia’s prize industries – oil, nickel, aluminium – in the hands of the oligarchs who became immensely rich. Putin too agreed to the deal before coming to power but changed his mind on coming to office in 2001 saying that he would separate power from capital and there will not be any political elite from amongst the oligarchs. He then went after those critical of his regime, which forced some like Abramovich and the late Berezosky into exile – and eventual death for Berezosky.

    Lastly let me make some observations on the Bola Tinubu Colloquium which like the Brics nations Durban Summit was the fifth one. Let me state again that apart from that similarity I see a greater similarity in comparing the great Mandela and the man after whom the Colloquium in Lagos has been named. In different contexts and time both have fought bravely for human rights and democracy. Before Mandela was sentenced to 27 years in jail, he told his prosecutors that he believed that only violent action would bring apartheid down and he said it in open court and even his colleagues were afraid he would be hanged but he was given a long prison sentence instead by the racist regime. On coming to power Mandela ruled with magnanimity and did not unleash the weapons of retaliation, nationalization and confiscation of his neighbor Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, on the whites in S Africa and thus ensured political stability in S Africa till today even as he seems about to make his ultimate rendez vous with mortality.

    At the Bola Tinubu Colloquium Professor Wole Soyinka sounded the alarm that we may be a nation at war without our knowing and it is time to brace ourselves as such, especially with the Boko Haram in the south west. Aside from the Nobel Laureate’s observation however nobody has done more than Asiwaju Bola Tinubu to keep the one party state we have become inadvertently, on its toes in terms of offering alternative leadership and security for our nation and people. He has done this by studying the problems of our unique democracy and coming out with meaningful suggestions and solutions that even his opponents and traducers have to acknowledge in terms of quality except they want to bury their heads in the sand. This is becoming apparent by the quality of his pronouncements on democratic rights, legitimacy, rule of law, the electoral process, federalism as a fiscal concept in theory and in practice in Nigeria , and in the documentation of his role in the democratic struggle against military dictatorship in Nigeria . Here is a leader who has paid his dues in terms of sacrifice, commitment and leadership and is yet not carried away by his immense achievements but is still searching for ways and means to lead in a better way and improve the lot of his nation and people . In this regard I wish him a very happy birthday and find him a worthwhile consolation even as I grieve, perhaps prematurely I hope , on the looming departure of the great Nelson Mandela in S Africa.

  • Global housekeeping – Values and issues

    We take on housekeeping and cleaning chores today as we attempt to discuss and clear out some old issues that resurface this last week like stubborn cobwebs that have dogged global diplomacy for years. There are really quite a number of them and some have turned up in quite different apparels this time around. The first surprise was in Turkey where the leader of the PKK the well known Kurdish terrorist organization has, unbelievably, called for a cease fire. The second was at the installation of the Archbishop of Canterbury – Justin Welby – where a female Archdeacon installed the Archbishop whereas just four months ago the Church of England Synod voted against the ordination of women as priests. The third is Cyprus where in asking for a bailout fund of 10m euros from the IMF and EU, Cyprus is finding it difficult to raise its contribution of 7 bn euros before Monday and has attracted the attention of Russia whose citizens own about two thirds of bank deposits in that nation. The fourth is Kenya which had its presidential election recently and where the there have been petitions against the elections results and the pre trial sessions will commence in Nairobi next Monday. The fifth was the visit of the US President Barak Obama to Israel and the West Bank where he paid the usual US policy lip service to the two state solution to the Palestinian problem even as Israel continues its policy of building on occupied territories on the west bank.

    The news from Turkey reminded me of the way the news broke about the release of Nelson Mandela and his initial negotiations with the apartheid de Klerk regime in S. Africa. Even ANC representatives scoffed at the news as apartheid and racist propaganda and misinformation then. But then, it turned out to be true. I have the same hunch on this Abdullah Ocalan declaration that PKK fighters should drop their arms in Turkey. According to reports on the internet Ocalan said the struggle has entered a new phase of democratic struggle and an era of ideas and negotiations requiring different strategy and weaponry. Most Kurds and Turks are said to be relieved and happy at the news and the Turkish government should be happy with itself in achieving an important political coup that past military governments which regarded the military as the guardian of Turkey’s secular democracy, have found elusive.

    Although there have been reports that some elements of the PKK are against what they perceive as a capitulation of their leader under duress and in captivity, those close to Ocalan say that he has acted on his own volition. Any way it is up to the government in Ankarra to keep the peace momentum going to sustain the new peace in Turkey by giving the much sought autonomy to the Kurds for which PKK fought for so long and for which so many people have died in terrorist acts for decades. The Ocalan peace deal may even advance Turkey’s pursuit of what its government and people covet most, which is membership of the EU. This is because persecution of Kurds has always been a stigma used against Turkey in this regard, and this new peace deal should give the Turks immense opportunity to remedy this and boost their EU potential membership credentials and prospects.

    The installation of the new Archbishop of Canterbury was dogged in controversy coming from the era of his predecessor. The issue of enthronement of gay bishops was one that the African Anglican Communion had always opposed, albeit to no effect, with the British government and leadership of the Anglican Church of which the Archbishop of Canterbury is the Spiritual leader. The hope in Africa and Nigeria is that the new Archbishop will respect African values because he has worked in Nigeria as an oil worker and as a priest prior to his present great assignment. But already, he too has faced challenges at home as he voted just a month ago, against what the English Synod approved on the ordination of women priests. On equal rights for gay couples he is uncertain as he endorsed biblical marriage between man and woman but has said he has seen same sex couples capable of the same love as a man and a woman. More importantly, the Conservative – Liberal Party government that appointed him, led by PM David Cameron is determined to enforce gay marriages and equal rights for same sex marriage in Britain and sooner than later, this new Archbishop will play ball and I wonder what the African Anglican Communion will do then.

    We have seen on the internet that African Anglican Primates attended the ceremony but we were told they will not attend a meeting to be called by the new Archbishop later. Really, the African Primates have my sympathy because they have the problem of legitimacy, authority loyalty to face as these flow from the seat of the Archbishop of Canterbury to all parts of the global Anglican Communion. Yet, these Primates must brace themselves for hard knocks at home and abroad if they play ball with this new Archbishop. The way out is to stand for African values like former Nigerian Primate Peter Akinola did, till he retired and his successor Nicholas Okoh has been doing since. Which in effect means inevitable confrontation or schism in the global Anglican community. If however the umbilical cord is too hard to break, for whatever reason, a confederation of Anglican Communions will be more honorable for Africans than a global Anglican Communion led by an Archbishop at the beck and call of a British government committed to enforcing gay rights and same sex marriages. Really there should be mutual respect for cultural values even in matters of state and religion as in this particular instance.

    On Cyprus I am fascinated by the speed with which the Lenders are about to throw the baby away with the bath tub given the Monday ultimatum they are giving Cyprus to perform or get its banking system blown away. The Russian PM Medvedev is reported to have said that the EU and IMF are behaving like a bull in a China shop and that is quite interesting in the light of some information I picked up on Cyprus in a book in my library. The book – The Sink – written by Jeffry Robinson is on money laundering and how money from offshore banking is being used globally to finance, terrorism narcotics and crime and has some information on Cyprus that I want to share with readers. The book says in part –In Cyprus, Russian criminal organizations control a huge percentage of the 48000 shell companies registered there, 47000 of which have no physical presence whatsoever – no roof, no phone number not even a post box . I found this amazing when I first read the book some time ago. Now given Cyprus’plight and the on- going financial and banking reforms in Europe, perhaps the EU is doing serious house cleaning starting with shell companies and tax havens like Cyprus, and is sending a signal to criminal gangs this time from Russia and banks that back them that the era of dirty money and offshore illegality is about to come to an end, starting from Cyprus. We are watching.

    On Monday, the pre trial session of the petition against the election results that declared Uhuru Kenyatta winner will begin in Kenya. The Chief Justice Willy Mutunga has asked that the press should not comment on the issue once the trial, which will be publicized, starts. The petition include charges of rigging and figures manipulation. Again the personality of the CJ may be more fascinating than the case itself. He wears an ear ring which he said allows him to communicate with his ancestors and is a gay rights activist, although he says he is not gay. He has divorce case pending against him in a Kenyan court and has been a Catholic, Anglican and Muslim at various times. The petitioner Rahoula Odinga’s late father Oginga Odinga was his hero and he is a friend to the son. The new CJ has however assured all and sundry that he will be fair and just and handle the case according to the constitution of Kenya . Again , we are watching.

    Lastly we look at Obama’s three day tour of Israel and the West Bank and see how it has lived up to its billing which was that the status quo will be maintained. Well to me it has, somewhat and I really don’t like that. The status quo was a stalled peace process because the Palestinians said there would be no peace talks unless the Israelis stop building on occupied territories. Obama seemed to have supported that, till he said the contrary on this visit, which is really unfortunate. The only good thing out of the visit was Obama confirming he was for the Israelis and the US is as such. However his kowtowing to Israeli hawks like PM Benjamin Netanyahu and asking the Palestinians not to use building on occupied territory as condition for peace is unfortunate and very unfair to the Palestinians. Again I want to see how that will move the peace process forward in the area. Such capitulation, most unexpected, sure to send a strong signal to Palestinians and indeed all Arabs that the US is not to be trusted where Israel is concerned and that creates a mirage for peace in the Middle East and as is often the case, the entire world. Which also is a great pity indeed.

  • New Pope, new hopes and expectations

    Argentina  in recent times has been widely known for the Falklands War   with  Britain and before that  for the debt default crisis of 2001 that almost collapsed the global financial system. On  a happier note  though Argentina is  respected   widely as the nation that gave the world soccer happiness – as the country that produced first Diego Maradona  and  now  Lionel Messi   of Barcelona.   Just last week the magic of Lionel Messi  put paid to   Italy‘s  AC Milan’s dream at the UEFA Champions League with a masterful display by the magical Argentine, Messi. Yet,   the  biggest  global news this last week  was the election of an Argentine by the Conclave of Cardinals  in  Rome  as the    new Pope  Francis and successor  to Benedict XVI, the first  Pope Emeritus in 600  years.

    However,  it was not only in Rome that an historic change  of guard or a unique event was taking place. Similar events in terms of magnitude and importance took place in China where  the Chinese Communist Party confirmed the new  President   Xi Jinping  as  president of the biggest nation on earth in terms of population; and in Kenya where  a new president Uhuru  Kenyatta was elected in spite of a case pending against   him  before the International Criminal Court at  the Hague.  Also  in Afghanistan President Hamid  Karzai rattled American nerves by lumping both ally and enemy together when he accused both the US military and the Taliban  of exacerbating the state of insecurity in his  nation on the eve of the departure  of US troops from Afghanistan next year .Similarly in Nigeria the Nigerian president gave  a State Pardon to his former  boss  who was jailed for embezzlement of public funds  and dashed  all  hopes of successfully fighting corruption in Africa’s biggest  black nation.    In essence then, from the speedy   and fruitful   Conclave in Rome, to the murder and mayhem on  the streets  of Kabul,  to the smooth transition in Beijing   and Nairobi; as well as the horror  created in Abuja, change  and transition underpin  the events and personalities on display in my analysis this week .I  will illustrate  my  observations in this regard with deductions which I think will be apparent to the discerning eye in all these situations.

    Again,  let us go back to Rome for the election of  Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario  Bergoglio   of Bueno Aires aged 76 as the new Pope  Francis. To  me this is a very  smooth  transition as some say  the  new Pope was second to Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger at the last Conclave in 2005  that saw the emergence  of Ratzinger  as the next Pope  Benedict XVI. Which simply means that the Conclave decided that the no 2  should take over where the no 1 has stepped down. Which really should be expected  of a College  of Cardinals which is no more that a gathering of conservative minds,  very suspicious of any drastic change especially after the rude awakening from the fact that it is possible for a pope  to resign, something that  had not happened for a long time.

    However, it is in the choice of an Argentine that I want to dilate on,  in the light  of what Argentina represents in the comity of nations – in essence its sovereign reputation. First,   in global finance Argentina represents  something of  a way ward child,  and most finance houses hold their breath doing business with that nation because of the threat of debt default. Indeed  an Argentine ship was seized in Ghana  of recent on account of the debt default saga   that  happened  at  the start  of the millennium. In  politics  however  Argentina  is a  highly  legalistic nation in that it has brought to book all past military  leaders who staged coups and toppled   democratically elected governments to gain power.

    These  included past military generals like Viola  and  Videla  as well as Galtieri  who was jailed for taking Argentina to the Falklands war without proper preparation leading to a disgraceful defeat by Margaret Thatcher’s Britain. So  Pope Francis ascension to the papacy in Rome is a  boon and a great boost to the ego and pride of Argentina  as a Latino nation and to Argentines generally. I wonder  how Britain or Britons will  feel about the emergence of an Argentine  Pope given  the two nations well known truculence  over the  tiny Falklands  Islands. I  also cannot resist  chuckling at what Argentina’s former colonial lord, Spain,  now in austerity chaos  and distress that has caused Spaniards to take to the streets in riot, do  now that they have to pray to an Argentine Pope at mass. Really,   the emergence of a Pope  from the slums and dirty streets of Buenos Aires, after the highly intellectual Benedict XVI  shows  God is not sleeping after  all;  and that even the poor masses of the world have  their hope in high places  as their champion and  past traveler in the bitter  experience of  crass poverty now occupies the high and exalted seat of St Peter in the Basilica  in Rome.

    Similarly  in Beijing  the Chinese leadership  gave the western world a  lesson in orderly transfer of power from one generation to the other albeit in  a 10 – yearly mode. This is in spite of the fact of the skepticism of those in the west who call  the Chinese leaders despots with scant regard  for human rights. Yet  the Chinese are the largest creditors of the US in that they hold the largest chunk of US treasuries  in the world. The situation has been compared to cold war ideological war between the US  and the former US SR when  mutual deterrence or  annihilation  was the name of the game. Only  that this time the game between China and the US  has been called  the financial mutual deterrence or  annihilation war because one can not do without the other in terms of trade and global business and as such they must cultivate themselves in the interest  of   global peace  and  stability. Instead  of scoffing at the democratic credentials of Chinese leaders,  the west is better advised learn something from the slow but sure progress and order in China under their leadership.

    Kenya’s  successful  election has shown that democracy is maturing in that part of the world as the people spoke and showed that democracy in local display can be immune to international pressure and clamoring. Uhuru Kenyatta has been elected and there has been no violence as happened last time around. Although Rahoula Odinga has threatened to go to court he should let sleeping dogs lie  and allow peace in Kenya. This is because Kenya’s CJ is known to be close to Odinga and his verdict will not be respected or acceptable if he overturns the voters verdict. A  word is enough for the wise.

    President Hamid  Karzai’s outburst against both the US forces in Afghanistan and  his enemy the Taliban as birds of the same  feather, also is a fine example  of ingratitude in high places. But for the Americans Karzai  would  have been  ousted out  of power   long ago  in Afghanistan  by the Taliban. Now  for him to say that  both his enemy and ally are  prolonging the war is extremely strange  and nasty. Anyway  that seems to be the fashion that US allies  in the region reward the Americans after taking their money to help snuff out terrorists in the region. Just last week the President of Pakistan an ally of the US met with the President of Iran to sign agreement on the building of an oil  pipeline between the two nations. This is after the US has spent millions on Pakistan to fight terrorists that all parties in the region know are funded by Iran, an implacable enemy of the US.

    Lastly  in giving state  pardon to former  Governor Alamieyesiagha, to whom he was a deputy governor President Goodluck Jonathan  carried cronyism and impunity to  new heights in the fight against corruption  in Nigeria . Undoubtedly the cancer of corruption is a major hiatus  facing the Nigerian nation state . But  at least the government can avoid embarrassing itself  by not bringing opprobrium on itself in enacting a pardon which after all is just an act of mercy. It  leaves a bitter taste in the mouth to discuss  this pardon  which  is an  avoidable embarrassment to Nigerians  not only at home but in the diaspora. We  know that it is within the president’s power and that of the Council of State to do what has been done. We  also know that the saying is true that to whom much is given much is expected. This was one pardon too many and is a real pity for Nigeria’s  sovereign reputation.

  • Chavez, socialism and security

    I learnt of the death of Venezuela’s ailing President Hugo Chavez about the same time that I read about the appeal of the Sultan of Sokoto to the Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan to give a general amnesty to Boko Haram, just after its leader had reportedly threatened to unleash more terror in the North. At the same time, I was pondering over what I had just read in the book Financialism co authored by Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and Brian Browne on the Nigeria military’s several incursion into politics. The book noted rather wryly that the Nigerian military adopted the central control pattern of political administration inherent in socialism in governing Nigeria, without any thought or intention of using that to bridge social inequalities which is the goal of socialism as an ideology.

    Also along the way, I was monitoring a story about a book launch on former President Obasanjo’s term in office in a two- volume book by 20 scholars whose editorship was coordinated by a professor of medicine Professor Oladipo Akinkugbe in which it was said that former Secretary to the Obasanjo Government Alhaji Yayale and present National Coordinator on the Economy Dr Ngozi Nweala, Obasanjo’s Finance Minister were the two people that scuttled the reforms planned and executed by the Obasanjo Administration from 1999 to 2007. These events, the issues and personalities involved form the nucleus of my discussion today.

    Venezuelans have trooped to the streets to mourn their fallen leader Hugo Chavez who fought cancer and death, as if both devils were part of his military command and at his behest and call. Of course he lost his life and the battle, but he never lost the love of his countrymen because of the way he used his adopted version of socialism to take care of their welfare and reduce social inequalities in Venezuela. Hence his adoration by his people, both on his death bed and his final passing. Hugo Chavez was not a saint but he was a very clever soldier – politician who at the age of 21 as a young military officer decided he would be a leftist in life and alleviate the poverty of his people and he succeeded to a large extent.

    He planned a coup and was imprisoned. When released the military were still suspicious of him and did not give him a combat job but asked him to handle training but he used the opportunity to recruit bright officers for his ambition of ruling Venezuela which he achieved by winning the presidential elections and ruling his nation for 14 years till he died this week. Chavez used Venezuela’s oil wealth to reduce poverty in his nation and to promote socialism amongst his neighbors hence reducing social inequalities in the region . His foreign policy was anti American just as it was pro Cuba and helped Cuba immensely to battle the crippling sanctions imposed on it by the USA.

    To rub salt on US wound and discomfiture on this, Chavez even created diplomatic rapport with the Iranians who are sworn enemies of the US because of that nation’s one – sided support for Israel over the Palestinian issue .In effect then, Chavez created a niche for his nation in the comity of nations as an effective and independent voice of socialism, fearless of the US, and not in any way beholden to its global financial agent , the IMF. Yet Chavez started out as a soldier before dropping military uniform for the politician’s attire and making a success of leadership on both fronts.

    It is in this light that I want to compare Chavez’s leadership role in Venezuela with the viewpoint of the co authors of Financialism on the role of the military alongside socialism in Nigeria during military rule. Ironically a staunch ally of Asiwaju Tinubu, the governor of Oshun state, Ogbeni Aregbesola noted at the book launch last Thursday that Asiwaju is more of a socialist in his concern for and actions on poverty alleviation than the capitalist he claims to be. But it is the assertion in the book that the military adopted the state control posture of socialism without any respect for poverty bridging ideals of socialism that I want to comment upon. This is because the military had the same opportunity that Chavez had in Venezuela but blew it literally as each military regime left the nation poorer than it met it. At the end of the day the Nigerian masses became literally fed up with military regimes and loathed their memories intensely. Indeed when the late General Abacha died people celebrated all over the nation, just as Venezuelans mourned the departure of their leader with deep sorrow this week.

    Again the admitted failure of the Obasanjo Reforms in his two terms and the identification of the culprits raise serious questions on leadership in Nigeria and again begs for comparison with Hugo Chavez’s record in Venezuela. This is because Chavez and Obasanjo had similar opportunities to change events in their nations. Chavez staged an unsuccessful coup before being elected president whereas Obasanjo did not stage a coup but was the beneficiary of a failed coup that made him the head of the military after the assassination of Murtala Muhammed. In addition Obasanjo was the first Nigerian military ruler that handed power over to a civilian regime; a feat that made his leadership stature to grow till today in diplomatic circles. Twenty years after this Obasanjo was elected a civilian head of state and served for two terms of four years only to end up with this damning report that two of his appointees sabotaged his reform program. Which really bothers me as I do not see the import of this information which is like crying over spilt milk which all the forces in the universe can not bring together. Or closing the stables door after the horses have bolted. Worse still I am surprised that the Obasanjo government did not expect the role played by the two identified culprits. I will explain.

    With regard to his Head of Service then, the information will definitely make him a hero amongst the Administrative Class in the civil service, both past and present. This is because he protected his fellow bureaucrats against the record of Obasanjo and the military against the leadership of the civil service. The 1975 purge of the civil service, when the late Murtala Muhammed daily announced that ‘this administration will not tolerate indiscipline, this administration will not condone abuse of office ‘ was all what Yayale was trying to prevent happening ever again, on his watch. This purge though popular then, decapitated the leadership of the civil service and Obasanjo was very much part of it first ,as the Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters, and later as Head of State and Commander In Chief . Unknown to Obasanjo, espirit de corps was and still is a guiding leadership principle for the leadership class of the Nigerian bureaucracy just as it has always been for the officer cadre of the army, in and out of office , or uniform till today.

    In addition the second culprit could not have performed otherwise given the fact that she was brought from the World Bank and her brief was for an IMF reform like the ones causing riots in Portugal, Spain and Greece of recent. The Obasanjo book noted that she curiously and suddenly resigned but it is no secret that she went back to her job and got promoted too for her effort as Obasanjo’s Finance Minister. Anyway she is back in the same job and should be able to speak for herself on her role in the Obasanjo Administration between 1999 and 2007.

    Lastly, I understand the concern of the Sultan of Sokoto on amnesty for the Boko Haram terrorists but I do not think he is right in making such a call. Boko Haram terrorists have killed and bombed Churches and attacked Northern leaders including the Emir of Kano and an amnesty will not stop them. Instead it will be mistaken as a sign of weakness on the part of the Nigerian state. Terrorism is a form of blackmail and this is no different. If amnesty is granted it will be like paying a ransom and once that is started there is no end to it. The cost of settling for amnesty in this case far outweighs the benefits or the insurance of security for the Nigerian nation in this avoidable and smoldering debacle that is fast consuming our national psyche and threatening our corporate existence so direly.