The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Financialism — A moral and ideological warning for world leaders in action

    Financialism — A moral and ideological warning for world leaders in action

    Next Thursday March 7 is the book launch of an unusual book by two unusual people, one a Nigerian and the other an American. The book is a rich synthesis of the unique life, career experience and contact of the co authors on the management of the global political economy illustrated with good stories and analogies. The stories especially remind one of ‘tales by the moonlight‘ which in the slogan of Hallmark Films are’ good stories well told ‘ to teach morality and inculcate wisdom. The book’s focus is on the political economy and how past, historical, ideological and philosophical efforts at making the global economy work to reduce poverty and inequalities have failed. This failure, the authors contend will continue unabated unless the present global trend and error of taking Financialism, which the authors call a corruption or negative mutation of capitalism as the ideological panacea for the world’s political and socio – economic ills, is immediately and urgently acknowledged and corrected.

    The title of the book is Financialism – Water from an empty well; How the financial System Drains the Economy. The authors are Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the former Governor of Lagos State, leader of ACN and an astute businessman; and Brian Browne, the former US Consul in Nigeria from 2003 to 2007 who has served as a diplomat widely in Africa and is a Columnist in this newspaper, The Nation. The Forewords to the book are by two global giants in their own right namely Professor Wole Soyinka the Nobel Laureate in Literature and the Reverend Jesse Jackson the former US presidential candidate who made the famous statement that ‘God is not finished with me yet‘ when he lost the bid for presidential candidature. The two forewords which are rich in the experience of both well known warriors against poverty, oppression and man’s inhumanity to man, literally beg the reader to take time and the book to benefit from the practical, cerebral, real world, strong views of the authors on the running of the political economy. This is a book written by co authors who were bold enough to admit that even though they are not professional economists or planners they are not afraid to affirm that both past and present economists have not been successful in theory and practice to get the world out of incessant and successive financial and economic crises.

    The book’s main thrust is that the market economy driven from Wall Street by greed is leading the world to another financial abyss so soon after the global meltdown of 2008 .The book argues that Wall Street and financial markets have claimed the top of the US ‘ business totem. ‘Wall Street and the financial houses became the new temple of the American Economy‘ and this has been achieved with the mischievous claim that this was the newest, productive and dynamic form of capitalism when it is indeed the face of financialism which the authors say is an assault on itself.

    It postulates that the real sector which produces goods and services in manufacturing has been abandoned by governments who now dance to the tune of invisible market forces dictated by the financial markets, its leaders and its products. It is this false recipe that the apostles of global financialism have put forward as the blue print for the global economies to adopt to survive financial crisis and the co authors are shouting foul in Financialism.

    Comparison abound between Nigeria and the US in the book. While the US is said to be on the decline because of its arrogance and the thinking of its citizenry that it has the best products and is God’s own country, Nigeria is seen as never having tasted prosperity; and has always been wallowing in poverty because of poor leadership; and the fact that the Nigerian nation skipped the manufacturing stage whilst the US is the first post – industrial nation in the world. According to the authors ‘America has become apostate to its own ethic of hard work, solid savings and low debt. It forgot that debt which comes cheaply is the most hard to pay ‘Americans, according to the book worship money and no one can be successful politically in the US without being obliged to fund raisers who are beholden to the financial system and its sponsors from Wall Street.

    Even President Barak Obama was not immune to scrutiny as the authors correctly predicted that he would be reelected as he desired because he is part of the establishment and raised funds there from , and thus would be able to do scant reform; and the book was written well before the reelection. Which shows the predictive foresight of the co authors.

    My intention here is not to do a book review but to draw readers attention to the book albeit in the form of a me and my big mouth manner. This is because I am really fascinated and excited by the amalgam of fresh ideas and stories in the book whose main concern is on the global political economy, its past and present management and the course in which it should be directed to achieve sustainable global prosperity and social equity. The book provides ample research material for this column with its name of Global Economy and Politics. The book also is a lesson in constructive criticism, as it provides suggestions to both Nigeria and the US on the way forward after averting the powerful and all -consuming ideological ambush of Financialism.

    All the same I cannot resist the temptation to put the book in the context of this column especially with regard to events of the past week. The book Financialism should be a companion to world leaders who genuinely want to lead their people aright and into prosperity especially in this age and time of austerity and youth unemployment which are the hallmarks and by products of blatant Financialism as exposed by Asiwaju Tinubu and Brian Browne in their book. I would recommend the book to South Korea’s new first lady president Park Guen – Hye who was sworn in this week and who promised to recreate the economic prosperity her late father a military dictator Park Chung Hee achieved in making S Korea one of the Asian Tigers through export driven growth and prosperity decades ago.

    I recommend the book to the Castro Brothers who have ruled Cuba between them since 1950 when they sent Baptista packing from Havana with the illustrious Che Guevara leading the attack. This week Raul Castro – who recently took over as president from his senior brother , the ailing Cuban leader Fidel – was elected for another five years till 1918 by the Cuban National Assembly. Raul Castro has said he would step down then and has made provision for a successor if he did not make it to 1918. Significantly Raul told the Cuban Assembly that he was not appointed into office not to introduce capitalism but to protect and promote socialism. While that may sound ambiguous it still shows how far from rapport Cuba is from its big neighbor and exporter of capitalism, nay financialism, the USA.

    The book is recommended for the leaders of Italy especially with the hung parliament from last Sunday’s election, that has made the world to see Italy as ungovernable. To me, aside from the center left party that claimed only the lower house, two real winners emerged from the last Italian elections for different and opposing reasons and that explains why they cannot ever form any coalition .

    The first winner is Beppe Grillo a comedian that Italian took seriously because he said politicians are useless and have run Italy aground and the people voted for his party – the Five Star Movement and its candidates -even though they know they lack the experience to govern. The second winner is the epitome of the discredited Italian politician that Grillo campaigned against, Silvio Berlusconi now the Houdini of modern Italian politics. The wily fox Berlusconi simply bent in the direction of the storm of anger against his past political and personal record and wooed the electorate by condemning the reforms of austerity measures with a promise of tax refund, and the Italian electorate got hooked and returned him and his center right party – People of Freedom – to relevance on the edge of political extinction. Surely, these two unique Italian leaders who are part of the present world leaders in action, will benefit immensely from Financialism – Water from an empty well, by the co – authors – consummate politician and leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and fellow columnist, Brian Browne.

  • Democracy, taxation and austerity

    Democracy, taxation and austerity

    Given the rate at which euro zone nations have been beset by street riots over austerity measures there is no doubt that very soon the concept and practice of global democracy will be synonymous with unrests and riot. Let us distinguish the euro zone riots in Greece , Spain and Portugal from the ones against despots and tyrants in the Arab world that started in Tunisia and spread to Egypt and Libya and which at first successfully achieved the objective of removing the dictators but also created fresh problems of governance, security and stability in the process.

    Again let me stress that both the euro zone austerity riots and the Arab street protests stem from how economic resources have been allocated and managed in the two environments. In the euro zone, the location of the world’s oldest democracies the maintenance of the welfare state has taken its toll on the resources of the environment and that has created the problem of higher taxation and decreasing welfare benefits leading to redundancies and massive job losses with workers unions taking to the streets with strikes to protest economic measures by governments to make ends meet. In the euro zone the welfare state has spread itself thin on resources and must rethink its economic solution approach or die a slow and withering death.

    In the Arab world and most of the so called third world, the strategy of state survival is to wrest the resources of the state from a few hands that have cornered it and start a welfare state or a semblance of it and that is if those with the huge stolen resources allow such a change at all. It is a tall order but that should be the direction of political change after decades of thievery and debauchery

    In effect then, we may be talking of two sides of the same coin if we say soaring welfare begets austerity and despotism begets poverty but that each must be experienced before lasting growth can be achieved to sustain prosperity. That however is so much theory as events have shown in recent times both in the euro zone, the Middle East and Africa, that poor management of resources create tension that overheat the socio economic fabric of society and that is taxing direly the concept and practice of democracy globally.

    In Italy former PM Silvio Berlusconi has made a move against the general EU trend of governments solving debt and economic crisis through austerity measures and increased or new taxes. Berlusconi has written letters to voters in key areas of ltaly that he would refund the property taxes they have paid so far in the name of economic reforms if he is elected in tomorrow’s elections in Italy. His opponents and critics have denounced his letters on taxation as a bribe and have asked for him to be prosecuted. Knowing Berlusconi’s highly controversial political antecedents and given the big luggage he already carries in terms of litigations in his past spell as PM of Italy, the prospect of his being deterred by litigation is nil. It is however the possibility of voters reacting positively to the attractive tax offer that fascinates me and leads me to examine the nature of political leadership in a democracy in the face of dwindling economic resources and the peculiarities of each political system. Aside from Berlusconi we will take on the elections in Kenya where one of the front runners is Uhuru Kenyatta who is facing charges for genocide in the Hague and the consequences of that for Kenya’s elections.

    Back to Berlusconi again, it is apparent that God is not finished with him yet, as Jesse Jackson once said of himself, as far as Italian politics is concerned. This is because here was a man written off for many vices and cases he faces involving sex with harlots and under aged girls when he left office last year. But now the polls show he is bouncing back and he even though his party may not win he may get enough votes to be a key kingmaker in ensuing political marriages that make governance a tedious exercise in Italy.

    In addition while Berlusconi may have lost his charisma because of his many flirtations and dilettante he has his club AC Milan to always lure and dazzle Italians soccer loving and passionate to his side. However, this last week luck was on his side as his club AC Milan did the unbelievable by beating defending champions Barcelona in Milan by two goals to nothing. Who knows the impact of football on politics sufficiently to dismiss the possibility of voters voting for Berlusconi again to make the good times of soccer victories come back to Italy under a Berlusconi regime? Surely no one can be certain.

    But if you add the tax offer to an unforgettable AC Milan victory over Barcelona in an election week you can fathom why Italians against all odds may develop sudden amnesia for the many vices of their most controversial former PM and still offer him another chance to lead or mislead them again in the peculiar democracy that Italy has become nowadays.

    Similarly you want to wonder why Kenyans will be asking a man who is on trial at the Hague to lead them as Uhuru Kenyatta is and is still contesting for Kenya’s presidency. A Kenyan woman interviewed on satellite TV was adamant that Uhuru is her choice because the father, Jomo Kenyatta led Kenya well and the economic situation was very good then as there was free education. But then the UK envoy in Kenya was insistent that he may not be able to shake hands with Uhuru Kenyatta if he wins as that is the policy of Britain over those standing trial at the Hague as Uhuru is. Yet both Britain and Kenya are democracies. But if Uhuru wins, will Kenya not have problems with the international community?

    Surely no one but Kenyans can decide this and one must wait awhile to cross that bridge. But I think Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana won elections in 1951 in Ghana while in British colonial jail, and Uhuru at least, is still on trial and has not been jailed yet so there is still some similar legal antecedent to muse over in case Uhuru wins the presidential elections in Kenya

    It is apparent that taxation becomes a huge political problem in hard times in any political system. Here in Nigeria, and as we now know also in Greece, given the Largade List and the name and shame campaign to make rich people, consultants and lawyers to pay taxes in Greece, most rich people go to great extent to dodge taxes. Yet taxes are vital for the supply and maintenance of essential infrastructure like transportation , housing , and security.

    A peculiarity of the Nigerian situation is that tax collection and gathering is done so massively and in a very modern way but the infrastructure on the ground are so old and obsolete that one wonders what the taxes are used for after all.

    In addition Nigerians are so used to constant power failure and would be wondering why people in Bulgaria will be rioting as they did this week because of high austerity taxes and high electricity bills which are a way of life in Nigeria. Yet Nigeria too is a democracy. It is however a unique one that has produced long suffering citizens who never want to rock the boat or bell the cat as long as each person or family is able to make a subsistence level of living literally from hand to mouth, leaving the way for the rich tax dodgers to have a field day and dominate both the political and economic environment maximally. Yet Nigeria is a democracy too but a very calm one where people don’t demonstrate because of high taxes or perpetual power failures or in b-uilt, reinforced, austerity measures from time immemorial.

     

  • Resignations, mandates and security

    Resignations, mandates and security

    I take what I call a triple-two approach in analyzing the topic of today and you don’t need to wonder much before seeing what I mean. On resignations I take on the recent one of a Pope and a successful Nigerian soccer coach and show that each actor has performed contextually brilliantly in spite of the abrupt and negative connotation of resignation. This is despite the withdrawal of the resignation of the soccer coach moments after and the fact that the Pope’s departure from the Vatican is not immediate but till month’s end. On mandates I examine the lamentation of an African leader on the inability of ECOWAS leaders and their armies to bail out Mali, leading it to former colonial master France to be the avenging angel for the African state in its hour of need.

    I contrast this with the political merger of opposition parties involving 10 governors in Nigeria to form a mega party – All Progressives Congress – APC – to counter the dominance of the ruling PDP in Nigeria. Thirdly I look at the issue of security from the perspective of the emotional appeal on gun control by US President Barak Obama in the US Congress this week, in his first State of the Nation address and compare that with the comments of BBC journalists who covered a train journey from Lagos to Kano in Northern Nigeria and the implications of their comments and jokes for the security of the newly introduced train services linking the north and south of Nigeria.

    Back to resignations again . The resignations of Pope Benedict XVI and Super Eagles Coach Stephen Keshi caught the world by surprise for different reasons. Firstly the Pope has been one of the most respected Popes and someone who has been in the Vatican for over three decades .He was the anchor man throughout the papacy of his predecessor Pope John Paul ll for -23 years – and it was difficult to imagine him being any where else till his death. Now that has changed and we have been told he will spend his last days in a monastery studying and meditating as the first Pope to resign in 600 years! Let me say that the outgoing pope will be remembered for his strong views on birth control and homosexuality as he insisted in all his writings on theology as a professor that the church should not bow to the fashion of the times but must maintain the faith always. He was no friend of the former Archbishop of Canterbury and accommodated Anglican priests and their families that left the Anglican Church after gay bishops were ordained in the US. He was no friend of the Obama White House either with its promotion of gay rights.

    Before hearing the reason for the Pontiff’s resignation, which turned out to be his failing health, I had indulged in some speculations of my own. Let me confess that although I am not a Catholic, I am an admirer of this Pope who had just resigned because I listened in 2005 to his sermon as Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger then aged 78, at the funeral of Pope John Paul ll and thought then that he spoke like a saint and his sermon was like a modern beatitude. I was later pleasantly surprised when he was elected Pope by the Conclave of Cardinals and chose the name Benedict XVI immediately. I later bought a biography of him written by an author who featured prominently this week on CNN on the coverage of Benedict XVI’s most unexpected resignation.

    That book featured six reasons why Ratzinger could not be elected Pope and included reasons like he was a disciplinarian Cardinals in the Vatican and had stepped on toes and the Cardinals would not vote for him; he was an academician and not a priest; the myth that a fat pope had never succeeded a fat one; his being a German and not an Italian and his that his predecessor was from Poland and there was need for an Italian Pope. All these came to nought however and Joseph Ratzinger was elected Pope by the Cardinals in Rome in 2005. This made me to believe a claim in the book that the Cardinals had been schooled to believe that when the time comes to elect a Pope, the potential pope will exhibit exceptional and unusual spiritual qualities that will stand him out from other candidates; and I believe that Ratzinger’s actions at the funeral of his predecessor clinched his election as pope by his fellow cardinals eight years ago.

    However this also created problems for Benedict XVI as some American Catholic bishops who fled the US at the beginning of the shameful pedophilia crisis on which the Catholic Church paid a huge amount to placate victims in the US, were seen playing crucial roles at Pope John Paul ll ’s funeral at the Vatican . Indeed I had thought a fall out of this had led to Benedict XVI’s resignation before I learnt with great relief of the real reason, which was his failing health. Please help me wish my favorite Pope a happy retirement.

    In Stephen Keshi’s case his resignation was a shock because he had just won the highest football trophy-the AFCON Cup – for Nigeria and made history in the process as the first Nigerian player to captain his nation to win the coveted trophy as he did in 1994; and to do so again as a coach as he just did in S Africa, in 2013. Although Keshi has been persuaded to withdraw his resignation his reason for this was apparently a standing threat by his employers to engage foreign technical advisers for the team he had just guided most unexpectedly and most professionally to a fantastic victory in S Africa. I think Keshi used the adage that an actor quits while the ovation is largest to get the better of his bosses and this has worked well for him and I think the nation and the Super Eagles.

    I also think Keshi’s fears and anxiety were apparent earlier at a press conference after the Mali Match in S Africa when he seized the microphone literally and spoke in French to say he did not hate white coaches but that they should be qualified before coming to Africa. In addition Keshi had been fired before by Togo after leading that nation to qualify for the last world cup and that experience must have emboldened the Nigerian coach not to be a sitting duck this time around and once bitten quite shy became a good strategy to show his concern and get not only official redress and recant on his fears, but overdue national approbation and commendation .I wish Stephen Keshi and the Super Eagles the same success they have earned in S Africa, in spite of the doubts of all of us, at the coming Continental competition and the World Cup and assure them that their victory in AFCON has earned them the respect of all Nigerians willy-nilly for these important events.

    I listened to Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni this week on BBC saying that it was a shame that African nations could not help Mali till France came to do so. Museveni wondered what the armies in the region ECOWAS were in uniform for and why they could not perform . This to me was a genuine African indignation with which I associate myself. Museveni definitely knows what he was saying. He was a history teacher who came to power as guerrilla who went to the bush to fight after he had been rigged out of elections in Uganda . He has kept a tight rein ever since on the Ugandan army which is well trained.

    Museveni also knows his onions as he and his friend President Paul Kigame of Rwanda are the regional guarantors of stability in their part of Africa, notorious for incessant rebellion and they have maintained order and stability in spite of frequent violent military assaults and disruptions in the area. His indignation on the non performance of ECOWAS leaders and army is a righteous one and is an indictment of those responsible for national and regional stability and security in the ECOWAS sub region.

    It is in that light that I see the challenge of the 10 governors who have formed a mega party -APC – ostensibly to prevent the decline or castration of Nigeria into a one-state under the ruling PDP. The fact that some of the governors are from the ruling party, shows that all hope is not lost in fighting the slide to corruption and infamy that has characterized the present political dispensation which has eroded the integrity, respect and leadership of Nigeria at regional level resulting in the Museveni outburst. Without saying it, the Ugandan leader was wondering what Nigeria was doing on Mali. But then no one or nation can leave the fire on its thatched roof to be putting out that of his neighbor. That is why the challenge of the 10 governors is a step in the right direction to retrace Nigeria’s steps both at home and abroad and restore her to her rightful position, hopefully after winning the 2015 presidential election, for which I wish them God’s speed and goodluck . I mean the genuine and real one, this time around

    Lastly at his state of the nation address President Obama whipped up emotion in support of security measures aimed at curtailing the violence and senseless killings with guns in the US. To a long and standing ovation the American president harangued his audience that the victims of poor gun control deserve a vote and mentioned the various locations of the gory killings. This was made more moving and poignant by the presence of the slain victims’ relatives at the occasion. The emotional appeal nevertheless brought home vividly the insecurity inherent in the inadequate gun control measures in the US right now. Which means that the National Rifles Association-NRA, the main opposition lobby to gun control has an uphill task in countering the high pitch Obama salesmanship for better gun control in the US at his last state of the nation address this week.

    To round up l want to compare Obama’s use of emotion to secure better security on guns in his country, with the BBC crew coverage last Wednesday of the newly introduced Kano – Lagos train line, a journey which took 31 hours according to the BBC traveler. Which is an improvement as one of those interviewed said he had spent three days before to get to Kano. The programme was a fine travelogue but for the fact that it gave the impression that the service was an easy prey for a potential Boko Haram attack. Yet, I admire the spirit of Nigerians interviewed, who showed such danger never crossed their mind especially the policeman who said the presence of the police was to secure the service at all cost.

    To me that program was marred by the insinuation in the BBC programme that Boko Haram could sabotage a link between the north and south, a fear the Nigerians interviewed never exhibited from their cheerful response to leading questions from the traveler. In addition the presenter at the end of the program jokingly called the traveler a ‘coward‘ for returning by air from Kano which to me was coarse humor at the expense of the gravity of the Boko Haram menace in Nigeria. Definitely I do not think it is part of the BBC mandate to alert Boko Haram to potential waiting targets in Nigeria. I had goose pimples listening to that program with its utter disregard for the security implications of the comments of the BBC journalists. Definitely more care needs to be taken in the future on such extravagant comments as life has no duplicate.

  • New political deals, security and sports

    New political deals, security and sports

    Last Thursday British PM David Cameron hosted the presidents of Pakistan and Afghanistan in London in a conference aimed at brokering a peace between the two neighbors and subsequently achieving peace with their common enemy, the Taliban, in the region. Similarly during the week the leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, announced that his organization was ready to form a government of national unity with the leader of the PLO, Mamoud Abbass with whom Hamas clashed to set up its own government in Gaza sometime ago.

    Also, an assassination of a politician in Tunisia, the first since the Arab Spring Revolution began in January 2011, set the tone for the formation of a government of technocrats without political affiliation in that nation from where the Arab Street revolutions started two years ago. Thirdly, Nigeria’s qualification for the finals of the African Cup of Nations for the first time since it won it last in 1994 and the way and manner Burkina Fasso beat Ghana to get to tomorrow’s final in spite of the refereeing at that match last Wednesday, throw up issues of fairness justice and security both off and on the pitch in sports and politics.

    David Cameron’s peace broker’s role probably stems from a desire by not only Britain and the US to stop money down the drain over the war on terror in that part of the world, but also to maintain domestic peace in Britain given Britain’s large Pakistani population and the huge resources committed to the Afghan war from which the Allies are committed to withdraw from 2014 . But if David Cameron is sincere in intention, the same cannot be said of the two characters he parleyed with in London this week. This is because the two presidents from Kabul and Islamabad carry heavy luggage in terms of corruption and legitimacy to the talks and these have always dogged or sabotaged their communications with the final objective of the Cameron peace, which is the Taliban.

    President Karzai was elected to a second term recently in Afghanistan, in an election which even the US that midwifed it conceded was far from free and fair. But it was the best available option to keep the Taliban at bay while at the same time propping up a puppet government in a semblance of democracy. This has not however stopped Karzai from telling the Americans that he is free to visit any nation and receive any head of state including that of Iran, the sworn enemy of the US, the sole guarantor of the same Karzai government in Kabul.

    The government of President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan faces a different challenge and carries a peculiar burden. The Pakistani president faces money laundering charges in Switzerland for which a warrant has been issued for his arrest and for which his incumbency as president initially provided immunity. In fact his party or indeed the party of his wife Benazir Bhutto who was assassinated on her return from exile to contest parliamentary elections, won the last general elections riding on the wave of sympathy for the wife’s assassination. That however was when the judiciary needed the politicians in Pakistani’s volatile politics to drive away the military dictatorship of Parvez Musharaff who wanted to shed military fatigues to become a civilian president.

    The CJ of Pakistan then ruled against Musharaff’s ambition as illegal and the politicians rallied round the beleaguered CJ who was reinstated after Zardari’s party came into power. Now it seems the relations between the CJ and the government in power has soured as the CJ has dismissed two PMs for contempt charges for failing to initiate criminal proceeding against Zardari for his earlier money laundering charges.

    The army is standing aloof in all these because it has lost face in Pakistan over the way the Americans came and killed Osama Bin Ladin literally in its backyard. In addition outgoing US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has always taunted the Pakistani authorities – military or politician – alike with hypocrisy and treachery in taking US dollars while hiding the where about of Bin Laden – a situation made worse and more embarrassing in the way and manner of the killing of Bin Ladin.

    So in effect, what sort of peace can Cameron broker with these leaders broken in integrity and credibility in their own socio political environment? Can such a peace be respected by the Taliban who hold the two leaders in contempt and boast that but for the Americans and their allies they would have made short work of these leaders? This is what the British should ponder about after all the fanfare and hullaballoo of the London Peace conference on Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    In the case of a truce between Hamas and the PLO in Palestine, this is a clear case of political pragmatism prevailing over deep rooted mutual resentment. The Hamas leader had left his base in Syria in a hurry after criticizing the Assad regime in the way it has been killing its people . He took refuge in one of the Gulf States but it seems life has not been cosy. This again is because one of Hamas own backers and sponsors – Iran – has been tight fisted in providing funds because of the Hamas leader’s criticism of its surrogate and ally, the Assad regime. Now the Hamas leader knows that there is no where like home and even though the Israelis are always looking for the Hamas leader to do him in, a truce of sorts with the PLO will provide some form of cover and shelter for the Hamas leader, at least in Palestine. This too should remove the bottom from the Netanyahu charge and argument that the Israelis are not ready for peace because they are divided. Which really is a wicked excuse for building on the occupied territories against UN resolutions and international law that Israel is violating with impunity. The Hamas rethink is therefore a welcome development that gives peace a new chance in the Middle East. It therefore should be encouraged.

    With regard to the assassination in Tunisia of opposition leader, anti Islamist Chokri Belaid who was shot in the neck and head by unknown people on motor bikes in front of his house this week, one can only tremble at the prospect that holds for democracy and stability in post – street revolution N Africa. I heard a lamentation on BBC that the assassination means the end of democracy and is a betrayal of the revolution in the Middle East. Which is really sad and makes one shudder that the huge human price to remove dictatorships may well end in anarchy and instability which again makes a mockery of the entire Spring Revolution that started in Tunisia two years ago.

    Most Tunisians have held the government Islamist Party in power – Ennahada – responsible but all hope is not lost that such anarchy will prevail in Tunisia. This is because the PM of Tunisia, Hamadi Jebadi has now said he will form a government ‘of competent nationals without political affiliation. Which resonates the concept of zero party politics similar to the one Museveni introduced in Uganda some time ago as well as the type practiced in Nigeria also some time ago. That also creates some fear as well that a sectarian majority may not be the goal of the Spring Revolution in N Africa even though on paper this should be a fait accompli given the census and statistics of the region as well as the fact that there is one religion prevalent.

    That was the problem the President of Egypt Mohammed Morsi was reacting to when he told the CNN – there is no Islamic Democracy but democracy. Which again shows that first Egypt and now Tunisia have become a case or battle ground for the clash between religion and democracy in the quest for freedom, stability and security in post revolution N Africa – and one can only watch and pray.

    Lastly the AFCON final tomorrow between Nigeria and Burkina Fasso promises to be a thriller and is a befitting end to a series of soccer games that have made Africa proud in terms of standard of play and discipline, except the refereeing . It was bad enough that CAF sent home the referee of the Nigeria – Zambia match for the penalty against Nigeria and for – ‘ trying to rewrite the rules at the competition‘. But the referee in the Burkina Fasso – Ghana match was the ‘twelfth player’ for the Ghana team. He was so biased against the Burkina Fasso team that it was a wonder they were able to defeat Ghana after extra time and penalty shoot out. One can only wait to see what CAF will make of such officiating as a form of deterrence.

    Let me say clearly that as a Nigerian I want Nigeria to win. But let me also, like most Nigerians say boldly, that the Nigerian team has surprised all of us in getting this far, given the way they played their first two drawn games against Burkina Fasso and the outgoing champion Zambia. But it is in the way that the Nigerian team has lifted its game since those two dismal draws that I doff my heart to the team and its coach Stephen Keshi.

    Nigerians lost confidence in the team after its first two games but the team held its own, kept its head and focus, and gave a brilliant performance against Ethiopia and Ivory Coast to win the hearts of all Nigerian who are now rooting for them to win today. It is therefore the Super Eagles and it coach that deserve kudos for believing in themselves, against the 11th hour, new found supporters of today who were yesterday‘s doubting Thomases and who now expect them to win today, as I am sure they will, all things being equal.

  • Justice, interventions and revolutions

    Justice, interventions and revolutions

    As the French Sahel Assault is on course in Mali, Nigeria, at a donors conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia told the audience it had spent $34m on deployment of Nigerian troops in Mali – while in the same newspaper that carried the report on the expenditure, there was another report that two weeks after the deployment of Nigerian troops to Mali , the troops are yet to leave Nigeria because of lack of funds. In the Middle East, Israeli planes were reported to have bombed a defence research facility in Syria, a fact that the Russians decried, while warning it could escalate the Syrian war. This is because Iran, an implacable enemy of Israel, had declared earlier that any attack on the Assad regime would be treated as an attack on Iran.

    In Egypt, youths and demonstrators waged violent demonstrations in Egyptian cities against an Islamist president they say had hijacked the revolution that overthrew the regime of Housni Mubarak two years ago – and the Egyptian army, standing on the sidelines ominously warned that the state of Egypt is under threat. Again in Nigeria the judgement in the case of a former pensions director who who stole 27 bn naira but was sentenced to just two years and fined 750,000 naira by a court caused such public outrage that the accused has been re arraigned while some groups have called for the probe of the judge that gave the initial verdict.

    In all these issues – which I admit albeit grudgingly, are enough for today- the common bonds are the quest for justice, order, security and stability. It is obvious that in some cases the socio political institutions and apparatus for achieving set goals and objectives of society have failed to live up to their billings and ad hoc or impromptu alternatives have had to come in, occasionally violently, to create some form of social, political or even regulatory equilibrium or balance.

    In some instances the law has been made an ass while in other cases or instances, regulatory or supervisory oversight has just turned a blind eye. Which really shows that interventions, if they are to be successful have to be decisive, fast and smooth like the French Intervention in Mali – he Sahel Assault – or as expected of regulators’ intervention in times of financial crisis in banks or financial institutions, to avoid panic or bank runs.

    Starting with the AU Donors Conference, President Goodluck Jonathan was reported to have told the audience at the 20th Ordinary Session of the African Union in Addis Ababa that ‘Nigeria has commenced the deployment of 900 combat soldiers and 300 Airforce personnel as part of AFISMA.

    Nigeria has so far provided about $32m for the immediate deployment and logistic support for the troops.’ Nigeria he also reportedly said would give additional $5m for helping the Malian defence forces as part of a Security Sector Reform Intervention Fund. Undoubtedly Nigeria’s intention on Mali is laudable and is good for regional stability. Nigeria is also living up to its billing as a force to be reckoned with in the West African sub region. But something seems to be wrong in the way and forum that the expenditure has been announced and the situation in Nigeria itself.

    In the report mentioned earlier which said Ni gerian soldiers are stranded at home it was also written that ‘the deployment was hurriedly done because of the deployment of French troops in Mali and the need to ensure that Nigeria does not lose face as the big brother in the sub region. Obviously the Nigerian authorities need to reconcile the Presidents lofty and ready statements of commitment in Addis Ababa with the disturbing news at home on the deployment of our troops in Mali.

    The report also went on to state that Nigeria would spend about 10bn naira on the Mali intervention noting that if half that had been spent at home Boko Haram would have been sent packing long ago. That really is making fun of Nigeria’s regional diplomacy. The consolation, if any, in that however may be found in the fact that Boko Haram was reported to have issued a statement that after a meeting with the Borno State government it has started a ceasefire. I expected the Nigerian authorities to cash in on that and say the thrust of its intervention in Mali has made Boko Haram to kow tow and see reason just as the Islamists in Mali melted into the Sahara or thin air at the approach of French troops.

    But a security spokesman in Lagos was reported again to have said that we will have to wait for a month at least to ascertain if Boko Haram would keep its ceasefire or not. That really creates a huge balancing problem for the Nigerian government not only in terms of expenditure announced in Abuja and its accounting in terms of Boko Haram and stranded troops in Nigeria, but more importantly on the international credibility of our regional diplomacy on the Mali Intervention.

    Many reasons have been proffered as the motive for Israel’s aerial intervention in Syria’s bloody civil war and the ever taciturn Israelis have not helped matters by keeping mum. But the more credible sources say the Israelis have acted to prevent arms and chemical wapons being made at the Syrian facility from getting into the wrong hands namely that of Hizbollah – the Party of God – based in Lebanon and a staunch supporter of the Assad regime just like the Russians. But the Russians and Israeli bring to these unfolding Middle East saga different types of reputation on the way and manner they have entered the fray. The Israelis are renowned for swift and efficient intervention while the Russians have a policy of docility towards their allies in the area. Two examples will suffice.

    During the Israeli premiership of Menachem Begin, the idol of the present PM of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israelis put out the nuclear facility of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein just like they did this week with the Syrian facility. The assignment was top secret in Israel such that Begin did not tell members of his cabinet he had summoned at midnight until the Israeli jets had hit their targets in Iraq and were on their way back to Israel. Such was the speed and efficiency of the assignment that even Saddam did not know what had happened till some days later.

    In the case of the Russians they promised support for Muammar Gaddafi during the presidency of Ronald Reagan when Gaddafi promised to stop US military exercise in the Mediterranean over a dispute on international waters. The Russians had their naval fleet in the Mediterranean promising support for Gaddafi like they are doing now for Assad. However on the night US fighter jets came calling and killed Gaddafi’s baby even in his underground bunker in Tripoli, the Russian navy had its full lights on in the Mediterranean so as to avoid any mistaken identity problems with the blazing US jets overhead. So much for Russian support for Gaddafi and even now for Assad – as the Russians are making plans to evacuate Russians from Syria in anticipation of retaliation for Russian prolongation of the war while blocking any outside military intervention in the Syrian crisis.

    Egypt’s situation is a sorry democratic dilemma in which there is a political situation begging for military intervention and yet the military must watch its steps in making such a move, if ever. The military boss recently appointed by President Mohammed Morsi has already issued a veiled threat but it remains to be seen how and when he will intervene . This is because the Egyptian street revolution of 2011 was supposed to have put paid to military rule or diarchy in Egypt. The army played its role in the revolution and bowed to public opinion. It supported and supervised the trial of its icon and leader -Housni Mubarak and his two sons all three of who are still in prison for corruption in Egypt while a popularly elected president was sworn in just last year.

    Now President Morsi, after demonstrators have been shot over his ploy to have even more powers than Mubarak, is as unpopular as the leader ousted by the popular uprising two years ago. Is Egypt in the throes of a second revolution so soon after the first, just two years ago? Is the Egyptian army bold or stupid enough to intervene and prevent a descent to chaos and instability inevitable if the army stands by and does nothing? Really there are no clear answers to the political situation or equations in the land of the Pharaohs as the inputs are changing so fast that it is even dangerous to hazard a guess on what defines stability or its antithesis and when or how military intervention can be the solution.

    Lastly, let us look at the case of pension theft of a huge sum of 27bn naira from a regulatory perspective that calls for the intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria in the matter. Surely the culprit and his accomplices must have bank accounts and must have laundered the huge sums of money in various projects or shell companies. The CBN should intervene by sending its examiners to the banks in which these culprits are customers by using its Know Your Customer –KYC- policy and CBN limits on Money Laundering Declarations.

    Surely some bank managers operated these accounts which must have brought juicy bank earnings at the expense of Police Pensioners. It is the duty of the CBN to bring such banks and bankers to book. If they had followed the KYC rules from the CBN and made requisite money laundering returns these culprits would have been found out and arrested long before they could wreak such huge financial damage. The ball in terms of intervention rests with the CBN more than our courts which can only decide on evidence brought forward from the banks . We hope the CBN lives up to its responsibilities.

  • Changing times and fortunes

    Changing times and fortunes

    There is no doubt that banks and bankers have fallen on bad times and fortunes in these hard times when people find it hard to make ends meet globally. Nowhere is this more acknowledged than in usually buoyant Europe where both the people and governments earnestly believe that bankers are the architects of the misfortune of both the state and the people. A Conference of Businesses in EU and Latin American and Carribean nations took place in Santiago the capital of Chile on January 25th. . . This confab provides a unique opportunity to compare the changing fortunes of these two parts of the world since the global financial and economic meltdown started in 2008. Before this the 6th EU – Brazil Business Summit took place in Brasilia, Brazil on January 23.

    Also during the week the 44th President of the USA Barak Hussein Obama was sworn on for a second term and he made the usual brilliant and moving speech from which the experts have distilled the new challenges he is determined to address in his second and final term as the helmsman of that nation. Those priorities in themselves will shock and please Americans and Africans in turn and will show indeed that the world is moving on and all of us are no more that the six blind men who touched a part of an elephant and thought they had seen it all – when all they experienced was just a part of the whole.

    Thirdly, in Greece, which is in a bitter debt crisis and socially disruptive austerity measures, the former finance minister George Papaconstantinous who started the much hated austerity measures has been charged to court for deleting the names of his relatives from the Lagarde List. This is a list named after Christine Lagarde the MD of the IMF and former Finance Minister of France who was given the list by some HSBC bank workers and who in turn gave the list to the Greek government some time ago.

    The list contains the leading tax evaders in Greece and was the source of a Name and Shame Campaign by the Greek government to make such people pay their taxes and reduce the burden of austerity borne mainly by the poor, which has been the cause of the street anger and demonstrations in Greek cities. If you recall that towards the end of 2012 a journalist Costas Vaxevanne was brought to court by the government but later freed for publishing the list you will see how the fortune of the Minister and that of the journalist have changed indeed for good or bad.

    Let us go back to the EU-Latino /Carribean Conference – CELAC- in Santiago in Chile on January 25th and make a comparison of the economic and financial status of the two regions of the world. Europe still remains the most prosperous continent of the world contributing a third of world GDP and is the biggest foreign investor in Latin America. But the EU is in economic turmoil and debt crisis and Spain and Portugal are amongst the debtor nations of Europe stigmatized as the PIGS nations with that acronym translating into Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Incidentally Both Spain and Portugal were the former colonial masters of Latin America with Portugal holding sway in Brazil while Spain ran the rest of the Latino nations in the region.

    Today, the nations of Latin America have moved millions of their people away from poverty lines and millions more have joined the middle class. None of the Latino nations is facing debt crisis like Argentina did in 2001 when it defaulted and exploded in crisis, like the EU nations and zone are reeling in right now.

    Brazil is preparing to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Olympics and both are ecpected to generate growth and boost the Brazilian economy. Brazil is also a prominent member of the BRIC nations – namely Brazil, Russia, India and China. The BRIC nations are seen as the emergent, global economic and financial powerhouse of the 21st century and no EU nation is amongst them. Even Argentina in Latin America has struck oil and has recovered from the harsh IMF conditionalities which made its economy prostrate and caused riots in Buenos Aires, its capital similar to the new riots in, Spain and Lisbon, Portugal nowadays.

    Really, between these two regions especially between the Latinos and their former colonial masters one can recall the saying that the mills of justice may grind slowly but they grind exceedingly fine.

    The Washington Post in its report on – line on the 57th Inauguration of the US president had the headline – Obama calls for greater equality – observed that the Obama Inauguration speech highlighted three modern challenges to pursue in his second term. These are fighting climate change; welcoming immigrants and ensuring gay rights. Obviously then, it is the gay rights community that is the greatest beneficiary of the Obama second term as it has been pointed out that this is the first time any US president has referred to gay rights in a speech. Actually immigrants too all over the world should breathe a sigh of relief as Obama stressed he would lead the US towards being the land of opportunities for all immigrants, just as the founding fathers wanted it to be.

    So the good times are there in the US for both immigrants and gays. As for global warming or climate change this has become an old issue in that nature has defied the predictions of the scientists and shown them to be largely alarmist or even downright wrong. This is because glaziers have expanded when Scientists said they would thaw, and storms and tornadoes have increased in frequency and intensity in some instances they have predicted otherwise.

    However, it is with regard to ensuring gay rights that I think Obama too has realized he was charting a different, new and controversial course altogether even in the US. With regard to Africa some will be distinctly shocked at his mission on gay rights. This is because here in Nigeria and at least in Uganda in East Africa the governments have passed laws banning lesbianism and homosexuality and the laws are popular in these nations, no matter what the Americans may think about gay rights. Britain has reacted violently as it were on these ant gay laws and gone on to withdraw aid to African nations like Lesotho and Malawi which depend on such aid massively.

    That to me is ethnocentrism on the part of the British although they too may think it is the anti gay community that is being ethnocentric or biased. That also must be what Obama had in mind in that part of his second Inaugural Speech when he said almost lamentably – ‘Being true to our founding documents does not require us to agree on every contour of life. It does not mean we all define liberty in exactly the same way or follow the same precise path to happiness. But it does require us to act in our time‘. Obama surely has acted and is understood by his American audience while his African admirers are stupefied and alarmed by his all – American stance on enforcing gay rights. Anyway since Africans don’t vote for a US president I think Obama does not need to lose any sleep over African horror on his fight to enforce gay rights in the US.

    Let us look at events in Greece again where the former Finance Minister Papaconstatinou is to face trial for removing the names of his relatives from the Greek State Name and Shame list of tax evaders. The former Finance Minister has alleged he is being singled out because he introduced the austerity measures. But what did he expect? What is good for the goose must be sauce for the gander and he who comes to equity must come with clean hands. That really is the measure of the accountability and transparency expected of him and that is why he must have his day in court – to explain his role and even exculpate himself if he can, for the law is no respecter of persons.

    Austerity measures involve retrenchment of bread winners, layoffs and unemployment, and these may not have been necessary in Greece if the Minister’s wealthy relatives had paid their taxes as expected, and as when due. That is what this Minister must account for, as in his former capacity as Minister of Finance driving austerity measures, he was expected, like the fabled Caesar’s wife, to be above reproach.

     

  • Foreign Intervention, Diplomacy and Stability

    Foreign Intervention, Diplomacy and Stability

    The  decision by French President Francois Hollande  to send French troops to Mali to fight rebels who have seized  the northern part of that nation was predicated  on the need to save a friendly nation’s sovereignty and preserve regional stability according to French diplomatic sources.

    However, foreign intervention generally has always been condemned in diplomatic circles because it violates the territorial integrity  and sovereignty of  the victim nation  as more often than not such incursion or intervention  is  military and without the invitation or the approbation of such a nation. Indeed foreign intervention is an option of the last resort in the comity of nations nowadays  as the  Syrian   fighters trying ardently to remove the blood thirsty regime of Bashar Assad  in Syria have found to  their cost  as they have asked for the intervention of the international community  to help overthrow  the tyrant in Damascus to no avail.

    Yet  many Africans  undoubtedly breathed a sigh of relief when the news broke early this week that France the former colonial power  in Mali has sent troops to that country to drive out the rebels that have seized the northern part of the country  for some time now. While one could scoff that France,  like the proverbial dog has returned to its vomit,  which nominally is a repugnant act, there is no denying  that this intervention has boosted the prestige of France   as a decisive and humane member of the international community and the reasons are not far fetched.

    Firstly, procrastination, it  has been stressed   many times,  is  the thief of time but it has  unfortunately  also been the   unnamed Mali Policy of ECOWAS,  the sub regional group that was given approval by the UN Security Council to secure Mali and drive  out  the invaders of that nation.

    ECOWAS had announced it was raising an army of 6000 troops with Nigeria expected to contribute  600  but till the French landed in Bamako  this week  there was no ECOWAS troops on ground in Mali. Indeed it was when the internet showed pictures of French tanks said to be about 50 moving into the interior  of Mali  that Nigeria announced that it was sending 200 troops and Chad also said it would send 2000.

    The French had sent 800 men initially and expect that to be beefed up to 2,500 eventually. It is apparent that France is more concerned and committed to the salvation and sovereignty  of its former colony, Mali, than its neighbors and fellow members in ECOWAS with which it shares propinquity and contiguity. Which throws up the inevitable question as to which is more important in diplomacy  in African nations  – the umbilical cord  of colonialism  or the regional bond of diplomacy and international relations. Given the way the Malians cheered the French Army on the streets of Mali as they moved north to oust the invaders of Mali, there is no doubt that colonial ties have ousted the weak kneed, dithering  diplomacy of ECOWAS nations as the savior of Mali,s  soverengty and  integrity  in its hour of need. This is not to say that the French by merely landing have routed the invaders and  accomplished their mission in Mali. We  are just saying that France’s decisiveness has given hope not only to Malians but also other West Africans who can see the danger of not containing the invasion of Mali and the consequences of that for the ECOWAS sub region.

    The danger lies in the fact that the north of W Africa which is called the Sahel has become a danger to ECOWAS members and what happened in Mali could happen in any of them. Nigeria already has a foretaste in the menace of Boko Haram which wants to introduce Sharia law and has been bombing Churches in the  north for some time. In Mali’s case there are three types of insurgents  in the north namely the Malian Tuaregs who want to secede , a  branch   of Al Qada in the Magreb  and a body that aims to unite jihadists in West Africa. These are the groups that have invaded the northern part of Mali after driving the Malian army sent to contain them out of the north and back to Bamako, Mali’s capital .Obviously the French president has seen the danger that ECOWAS leaders are shortsighted about and France has moved to nip in the bud a contagion that it can not afford to   allow   to destroy its prized assets and connections  not only in Francophone Africa   but  in the entire W/Africa sub region.

    Again,  one can accuse the French of being led  to  act by business I and commercial interests or  scold  their president   for  using a  foreign adventure to divert attention away from growing disaffection over his economic policies at home in France especially the 75% tax  on 1m euros that is driving   young and bright entrepreneurs away from France.

    Yet  one must admit that France has always had a soft spot for  its colonial subjects for whom it formulated a policy  of Assimilation  aimed at turning them into black Frenchme. Whether that has made the subjects incapable of ruling themselves after independence and without France is another matter.

    This is because the French  have  had to intervene earlier in Ivory Coast to drive out Lawrent Gbagbo and install Alasane Ouattara, the present president of Ivory Coast and Chairman of ECOWAS after a bitterly contested presidential election result

    Indeed, in the recent past,  after the  independence of African nations  especially the Francophone ones in the  fifties and sixties,  the French always provided troops to keep the status quo and prevent coups in Francophone states. It was the advent and popularity of elective democracy  later that  made  France to withdraw into its shell and look the other way while military coups toppled its favorite allies  in some Francophone   African states.

    Now France is back with aplomb to rescue  a former colony and  you want to wander whether Mali’s independence  on June 20  1960 so many years ago was worth the celebrations and   gaiety that accompanied it; given the fact  that France in  2013  is literally   still   helping Mali to wipe its bloodied nose arising from the blatant   and   easy assault  on its territorial integrity  and sovereignty by roaming desert warriors.

    Lastly, one cannot comment on this French invasion of Mali without making some observations on the attack on the BP oil facility in Algeria and the holding of many hostages from European nations. It  has been widely reported   that the  attackers have asked  that part of the conditions for their release is that France should stop its invasion of Mali.

    It  was  however  nice to know that the Algerian authorities   have not only  vowed not to negotiate   with the terrorists but the Algerian  military  have surrounded the facility, which from its picture on internet is an isolated desert facility  whose  location  should tell a story of its own.

    This is because Northern Mali is  in a similar location   or environment  to the BP facility in Algeria. It  follows therefore that ECOWAS  should send troops prepared and trained for desert warfare  or train them for such, before sending them to Mali. We  have read that the French troops in Mali are from an elite brigade well versed in desert warfare  and are on familiar grounds in Mali as such.

    As  events unfold however   is difficult to resist the temptation to give a name to this French intervention in  Mali and its Algerian connection. Since the first  Gulf War   over the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq was called Desert Storm  one needs a more imaginative and different name.

    I call the French intervention in Mali  the  ‘Sahel Assault ‘as  a mark  of respect for the foresight and precocity of the French President Francois Hollande, in showing decisively that a stitch in time saves nine in terms of regional security; and that in diplomacy, intervention can be justified pragmatically on the grounds  of regional stability  and   the protection of territorial integrity.

     

  • Power, authority and security

    Venezuela’s President Hugo  Chavez’s  battle  with cancer  and the ensuing  constitutional crisis  over his absence at his swearing in ceremony and Barak Obama’s resolve  to rein in the gun lobby in the US after his own swearing in for a second term provide immediate  and ample  ammunition  for today’s analysis. If  you add to that Afghanistan‘s President Amir Kadzai‘s cap in hand visit to the US  to ask for an extension of the stay of US troops in his violence prone nation  and the reported call by the Chairman of the AU  that NATO  should intervene on behalf of the AU  in Mali,  then you have an idea of the sort  of pot pourri that we are about to digest here today.

    Firstly, Hugo Chavez’s cancer treatment  in Cuba and his absence at his own party as it were created  a problem of constitutionalism, legitimacy,   legacy, authority and performance not only for Venezuelan politicians and leaders but also  for  a   concerned and  watching global audience. These are issues we have to dilate on toda . However,  Obama‘s  delegation  of power to Vice President  Biden   the duty of making the US safe while not compromising   the right of US citizens to protect themselves; a right massively and vehemently championed  by the powerful lobby of the National Rifles Association -NRA- showed that the US president is more than worried about the way some crazy Americans have been shooting innocent ones of all ages indiscriminately because they have easy access to guns and are using them lethally to kill as  if America is at war when it is not, at least  for now,  on US territory.

    The  delegation  of power  as Obama  prepares for his swearing in for a second term   opens up issues of security, stability, human welfare and rights in the world’s most powerful democracy. Similarly the Afghanistan president’s visit  raises issues or matters arising like sovereignt, corruption and the limits of immunity from prosecution for anyone and not only US soldiers for whom this has been requested in Afghanistan. Mali‘s  case   however is  just  a lesson  in the abandonment of responsibility and ceding  of regional power and authority by the AU.

     Hugo  Chavez’s case can easily be compared with the case of the first Nigerian president to die in harness – President Yar Adua  and his succession by his Vice President based on the principle of necessity evolved by the Nigerian Senate for that occasion. But then the comparison stops there in that the Nigerian president died but Hugo Chavez is still very much alive although he is away in another nation receiving cancer treatment.

    The Venezuelan Supreme Court  ruled this week that Chavez could be sworn in later when he is well and found absurd the suggestion by the  Opposition that he had lost the presidency because he had failed to show up  for his swearing in as constitutionally scheduled. The Supreme Court also ruled that continuity had been established by his election and the swearing in is  just  a formality. The Supreme Court  then ruled  that  the  Vice President is to  act as president henceforth till Chavez is able to attend his swearing in.

     This  to me is like stating the obvious but in politics at times what is quite apparent and  obvious  can be lost in plain sight just as the Venezuelan Supreme Court  boldly asserted  and ruled.This ruling to me  is constitutionalism without mischief and the  Venezuelan Opposition  must  accept that it can not get through cancer affliction of the winner of the election it lost,  the quest  for  power it lost clearly at the last presidential election.

    This is because sickness is a human condition and no constitution on earth yet has decreed that a man cannot be sick before and after his election . Early last year well  before the election I had written that Chavez was playing god  and may never  be able to take part in the election  he   subsequently won. But then,  he had the guts to go through and he has my admiration albeit grudgingly.

    In  addition  there is great evidence that Chavez  has raised the standard of living of his people in terms of housing and education as a populist and socialist leader committed to the welfare of his people and ipso  facto   gets their sympathy  in his battle with cancer . The Venezuelan Supreme Court  to me has fulfilled its duty with dignity  and affirmed constitutionalism, the  rule  of law and stability in the nation. However  this is in spite of  the posture of the  Opposition, which while accepting the verdict has accused the judges of the court  of  cronyism  – which to me is no more than  a case of sour grapes of wishing an elected man dead and out of the way when his time has not come. That  certainly is unfair  and politically  unsound as we are all mortal after all and even Chavez cannot be an exception.

    I watched the American gun debate this week on CNN and it is obvious that the president must act fast and alone if any meaningful  action is to be made into law to deter killers and protect potential and real victims in the US. I watched a man who  said  he  wrote to Congress that Americans should not be discouraged from having sophisticated weapons to defend themselves and that making ownership of guns un transferrable  disarms generations of the same family. He  even went on to narrate that K14 rifles were  simple weapons until an expert showed him that under some circumstances they could be real war weapons and more. The expert went on to explain that while Americans may need weapons to protect themselves they do not need war weapons like the one being used in Afghanistan and Iraq  to protect themselves at home.

    Which to me sounds reasonable  and should be the practical solution rather than the NRA formula that asks that all schools in the US must have an armed guard like a nation under siege from its own people. In addition the decision by some US trade unions to disinvest  their pension funds from big companies like Wal Mart, the world’s biggest  super mart and reportedly the largest   global seller of guns and, is  a step in the right direction to challenge the impunity of the fierce pro  gun lobby in the US led by the infamous NRA and other hypersensitive, and overly security conscious gun lovers  and associations in  the US.

    In  the case of the Afghanistan president’s visit to the US  to ask that some US soldiers be stationed in Afghanistan after the announced departure date of 2014 for US troops  in that nation, one must appreciate US concern to keep to its announced schedule. Indeed the Americans seized the occasion to announce that all US troops will come back except Afghanistan gives US troops to remain,  immunity  from prosecution. Really I think the Americans are just telling the Afghan president to get lost  as I do not see him capsizing and accepting the immunity condition.

    This is because he would be short changing the sovereignty of his nation by agreeing with the immunity option  which really is an insult . But then the Kadzai regime in Kabul is said to be so corrupt and so afraid of its own shadow and security  that it would do anything that would keep the Americans around   post 2014  to protect it from the fury and  scorn of its own people.

    Yet I accept a deal  has  to be struck one way or the other and I expect the Afghan president to need the Americans who upheld his relection even though they knew he rigged the last presidential elections massively to hang around.

    This is because  security business is good business for the Pentagon and  military – security complex that the war on terror has spawned globally and which is booming like wild fire  in the opium infested mountains and fields of Afghanistan. How  that translates however into security for a corrupt government in   Kabul is a wonder to be seen. How it also makes  the Taliban  more friendly towards the US  and less terror  prone  is the formidable challenge the US and its allies in Afghanistan face between now and 2014 and beyond.

    Lastly the news that the Malian army had chased the Islamist occupation army out of a town –  Dountza in the north east,  in Mali  was cheering news because this was the first time the Malian army had shown some spine or mettle since invaders seized the northern part of Mali. The  army had shown more  interest in ousting its elected  civilian bosses  than  in protecting the territorial integrity  of Mali in recent times. It ousted the last civilian president because it said the government did not give it sufficient ammunition to repel the invaders of northern Mali.

    Now  it is doing its primary duty and the AU  is calling for NATO intervention. I think that is an extravagant digression and it shows that the Beninois President   Thomas  Boni  Yayi  doubling as AU Chairman  is out of his depth at least in regional diplomacy. This is because the UN Security Council has already approved a  force of 3000 for Mali and Nigeria is sending 600 men so why the call for NATO support? ECOWAS should pull its weight and set the ball rolling first by allowing Nigeria to take the lead, instead of the usual Francophone distrust and jealousy of Nigeria’s ample regional leadership pedigree in such matters  as in Sierra  Leone and Liberia.

    In addition the Malian Army should be encouraged in its new found courage to defend the territorial integrity of Mali as  this is the best way to drive the invaders away rather than asking for manna to fall from heaven with NATO.

  • Leaders and the challenges of key decisions

    In fact without a crisis or a challenge no leader can claim to have been tested or to have paid his dues or earned the title of leader . Whether natural , fabricated or contrived , a crisis puts a leader on his toes to provide leadership , restore order or control and assure his followers that they are well covered by the insurance of his leadership

    Crises create leaders and leadership styles of various hues , shapes and sizes. In fact without a crisis or a challenge no leader can claim to havave been tested or to have paid his dues or earned the title of leader. Whether natural, fabricated or contrived, a crisis puts a leader on his toes to provide leadership, restore order or control and assure his followers that they are well covered by the insurance of his leadership. That is the mark of leadership in the modern world today . Yet it is becoming a rare gift amongst our leaders in the real world or if you like, a tall act to follow for most global leaders of our age and time.

    In Italy the make shift government of outgoing PM Mario Monti recently collapsed after former PM Silvio Berlusconi withdrew his support for him in Parliament .Mario Monti a professor of Economics had been brought in to fix Italy’s wobbly economy, run aground by Silvio Berlusconi with his varied, sordid and polemical sex scandals while in office as PM. Yet, Berlusconi supported the Professor until recently when the media mogul decided that Italy is now worse off under Mario Monti’s spending cuts and tax hikes and his government should be allowed to fall or go , to pave the way for new elections which Berlusconi wants to contest in . The problem really is that Berlusconi is troubled by Monti’s rising Mr Fix It profile in Italy and the fear in Berlusconi of a Monti candidature against him for the PM position is rising daily .So , the natural thing for Berlusconi to do first is to denounce the Mario Monti economic performance record as inadequate and unprogressive so as to create a problem for a future opponent about to enter the political foray to lead Italy as PM in the very near future.

    How that clash unfolds will be clearer in the next few weeks. But the scenario provides a very good illustration of the type of decisions that leaders must make and indeed have made in the past and which have great impact on their immediate environment and society. Must Mario Monti run because he has been taunted by Berlusconi or because he feels he has an unfinished business in fixing Italy economically and fiscally? Either way he faces a formidable opponent in Berlusconi who is free to contest elections pending his appeal against court decisions on sundry charges ranging from tax evasion, to underage sex, prostitution and others. According to Berlusconi he is a victim of persecution by the Italian judicial system. Just last week Berlusconi agreed to pay $50m to his divorced wife a fact which made Mario Monti to taunt him on his family values opening a debate for the PM contest in Italy which by the way is the only nation in Europe that can still have someone like Silvio Berlusconi still actively involved in party politics.

    Silvio Berlusconi has been PM of Italy on three previous occasions — 1994-1995; 2001-2006; and 2008 -2011. How Silvio Berlusconi still believes the Italians love him so much and can still elect him as PM of Italy in spite of his scandal prone political track record must be a source of worry for the Italian people who, while they may love him for owning the famous AC Milan Football club which has been several times UEFA Champions league winners, are enlightened enough to separate soccer ownership from governance and looking after the polity and the economy in a civilized and beneficial manner. Anyway I have no doubt in my mind that the Italian electorate is ready to teach Berlusconi some hard lessons at the polls over his latest decision to seek their support again for his election as PM.

    Actually this topic came to my mind on learning last week of the death at the age of 78 of the US 1991 Gulf War Commander General Norman Schwarzkopf in the US. The late General had led a Coalition of Nations to chase Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait after the Iraqi leader woke up one day and said that some history had it that Kuwait was part of Iraq and invaded his neighbor’s territory. President Barak Obama has paid tribute to the late General as one of the best generals the US ever had . So have his Commander in Chief then former President George W Bush the 41st President of the US whose son George Bush the 43rd US President finally nailed Saddam in the Second World War of 2003 predicated and driven on the excuse that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.

    My contention here is that the Second Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq by the US and Britain in March 2003, would have been unnecessary if General Norman Schwarzkopf had done his job differently in 1991 when he chased the Iraqi Army out of Kuwait. According to reports the road to Baghdad was clear for the Coalition Forces under the late General to finish off the loud mouthed Iraqi leader but General Schwarzkopf stuck to his gun that his orders were to liberate Kuwait and he stopped at the border with Iraq. The opportunity cost of that decision is not only the Second Gulf War after 9/11 but the slaughter of thousands of Kurds who were jubilating that the fall of Saddam was imminent as they thought the Coalition forces were on the way to Baghdad to destroy their sworn enemy. As it later turned out it was Saddam who had a field day destroying the Kurds in a murderous rage of frenzy and retaliation later because of Schwarzkopf’s decision to stop at the Kuwaiti border with Iraq.

    Similarly, the news last week that the vegetative former PM of Israel Ariel Sharon was still responsive and not dead, 7 years after he suffered a stroke in 2006 also bestirred some memories on momentous decisions he made before his stroke. Ariel Sharon was a war hero in Israel’s several wars with the Arabs since 1948 when the state of Israel was created and the Palestinians displaced setting up a violent ripple of hatred in the Middle East till today. Sharon was a hero in the Six Days War of 1967 as well as the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Indeed his picture with a bloodily bandaged head adorns some Encyclopaedia on his biography. Notably he disobeyed his commanders not to cross the Sinai Desert but his disobedience brought victory and according to fables the surrounding of the famed Egypt’s Third Army and a famous victory for Israel. But as a Minister in Israel after the wars, Ariel Sharon was a hawk who as Minister of Works accelerated building on the occupied territories that should be returned to the Palestinians according to UN resolutions. Later Sharon had a change of mind on this and formed his own party and won election on the platform of peace with the Palestinians but then he had stroke a year later and has been incapacitated ever since. It is on record however that before his stroke he ejected Jews living in the occupied territory by force which was an unbelievable sight at that time. Nowadays, however, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel is trampling on the policy for which Sharon won election before his stroke, by building on the occupied territories from which Ariel Sharon, war hero, former war hawk and later peace advocate , drove away Jewish settlers. Which really shows the cruel irony of life especially with the difficult decisions of global leaders both past, present, and sadly too while even vegetating.

    Leaving morbid thoughts aside, let us look at some challenging or potentially challenging decisions in France of recent . In France President Francois Hollande Hollande stuck to his gun to tax the wealthy even though the Constitutional Court in France ruled recently that the policy was unconstitutional because it targeted individuals and not households. The French president accepted the challenge and said he would rephrase the policy because those who have more in the French Society must sacrifice the most to get France out of its economic doldrums and reduce its debts and deficits.The Hollande Tax Plan had taxed 75% of earnings of French people earning 1m euros which had led to some gifted entrepreneurs fleeing France. Francois Hollande is unfazed by the Constitutional Court set back. Instead, in a speech to the French people in the new year, he declared his commitment to his declared election objectives of more jobs, competitiveness and growth as the ultimate economic bail out, rescue plan for France. Hollande to me has shown leadership grit and commitment to the overall good of France and has assured the French electorate that he would deliver on his election promise that he would tax the rich massively because the French have a tradition of reducing income inequalities right from the time of the French revolution of 1789.

    You can compare the French attitude with the American and Nigerian mind set to fiscal matters. In the US, the so called fiscal cliff is but an entrenchment of ideological stances by both democrats and republicans. The democrats believe in spending to bail out the economy while the republicans believe that governments role should be minimal and that those companies that cannot compete, cannot and must not survive. In addition republicans believe that the rich must not be taxed since they provide employment which they say is not the duty of government but the private sector .But a democrat Barak Obama won the election and was reelected in the US and his mandate must not be scuttled on an bitter and jealous ideological slaughter slab in the US legislature. Also in Nigeria, deficits don’t matter as long as the legislature hoodwinks the executive into accommodating the fringe benefits of legislators into the approved, expanded budget rather than a reduced budget that should be the product of proper legislative oversight, vetting and prudent management function.

    But then, in all nations in the world, posterity beckons for questioning, just as history watches and waits patiently to pass judgement on our global leaders’ and decision makers sense of justice , fairness and transparency. That may not seem much of a deterrence now in the frenzy to win immediate riches, honors and accolades .At the end of time however, the true leaders and decisions are those who and which survive the scrutiny of history and that really is what separates leadership chaff from wheat; and the men from the boys on the slippery paths of global leadership and decision making

  • Personalities and issues of 2012

    Let me start by stating that I start this piece today on the horn of a dilemma . This is because as this is the last Saturday of 2012 I initially wanted to pick a Man of the Year in the best tradition of Time or Newsweek Magazine , which is to identify someone who has influenced world affairs for good or bad in the past year . In this mode of identification , Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini , and before him Adolf Hitler had controversially but correctly graced the front covers of this great American magazines. However to my consternation and frustration I had a difficult time finding one person not because there was a shortage of such distinguished persons , but the dilemma arose in that if I chose one , I will be leaving out so many on the crucial divide of those who have influenced 2012 for good or bad . That dilemma crystallized into the topic of today and you are welcome to your verdict on whether I have taken the easy way out or given myself an uphill task to finish off a difficult and terror ridden year .

    Personalities and issues that have shaped the fortunes of 2012 for good and bad are many and varied. They have created moments that have made us happy and sad and on occasions created the pitiful dilemma that made us unable to decide whether to cry or laugh . This then is my new assignment today which is to line up and analyze such personalities and issues in the way they have influenced world affairs for good or bad in 2012 .

    The first set of personalities stem from elections which saw such leaders being reelected into another term or assuming a position they had before and that includes US President Barak Obama and Russia’s new President Vladmir Putin . These two gentlemen have by their offices influenced world affairs more than any other human being for good or bad depending on what part of the political divide of global politics you have found yourself . The next set of leaders are those who have excelled in their vocations and have blazed a trail in setting their nations on a new road in terms of diplomacy and international relations . I doff my hat then to two ladies of substance who bestrode the world in 2012 like Amazons in this regard namely out going US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Burmese leader Aung San Suu Kyi who brought her nation in from the cold of international isolation and claimed a well deserved Nobel Prize in the process .

    In the Middle East where the Arab Spring of 2011 , a popular street uprising against entrenched despots in Tunisia , Egypt and Libya gave way in 2012 to a clash between Fundamentalists and Others in Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood is using its majority to assert what Egypt’s new President Mohammed Morsi has been saying on CNN – there is no Islamic Democracy but only democracy. A statement of fact that is bound to shape the struggles for freedom and human dignity in the Middle East for the foreseeable future . In this wise while Mohammed Morsi of Egypt has influenced world politics for good in 2012 in spite of the opposition he faces at home. While the blood letting sit- tight President of Syria , Bashar Assad is the monster of the year in Damascus where he is using his army to suppress his people who have decided that he should go .

    In Sports laced with a tinge of security success Britain stands out as a model of success in the way it organized the 2012 London Olympics without any security hitch or terrorism similar to the Munich Olympics massacre of Israeli athletes sometime ago . Just as one must lambast Norway and the US on poor policing and security lapses in 2012 that resulted in lone terrorists inflicting mass murder especially of children and youths in their respective communities .

    In Nigeria air disasters and Boko Haram bombings especially of churches on a weekly basis dominated the skyline in 2012 and that leaves a very sour taste in the mouth . One can only hope and pray that 2013 will be better . In politics however the Opposition ACN is taking on the ruling and complacent ruling PDP on all issues and positioning itself as credible alternative to a poor performing government especially on issues of security and safety of life and property . In this regard the leader of the party Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu must take the credit for the domination of the South West by the party which has governors in four of the five states of the former Western region namely Lagos , Ogun ,Oshun , and Oyo states .

    These then are the issues and personalities that I feel dominated the horizon of our local and global politics in 2012 and I will briefly dilate on each but not necessarily in tandem . Let us start with the US where Obama’s reelection gave hope to millions of migrants who would certainly have been deported if he had lost the election . His support or his US policy of Engagement in the Middle East has promoted democracy and human freedom and dignity in a region that two years ago was agog with despotism and demagoguery . However tension and mistrust still exist between the secular and Islamist sections of the newly liberated nations of Libya , Tunisia , and Egypt and if that is not to escalate the US must amend its Middle East Policy to reflect new realities on the ground . It can do this by making Israel to return the lands it captured in the 1967 Six Days War and the 1973 War with the Arabs or by stopping the building of settlements by the Benjamin Netanyahu government on such land . This is because this is the cause of outrage and anti – Americanism in the Middle East and this will be exacerbated if democracy brings in elected, democratic but Islamist government, as as widely expected in the area .

    Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi because of the No fly zone imposed by NATO , Russia has opposed every thing that the US and EU nations have brought before the Security Council of the UN . This indeed is what has prolonged the political life of the hated Assad Dynasty and regime in Damascus . Vladmir Putin is the epitome and architect of this anti EU and anti American policy which has crystallized into blind and total support for Assad in Syria . This is because Putin believes the western powers were behind the massive demonstrations that greeted his 2012 election for another four years as president after a four year stint as Prime Minister , preceded by a two term, 8 -year tenure from 2001- 2008 as president of Russia . You can only grasp the enormity of this Putin political abradacabra or magic if you can see George Bush , the US 43rd president [2001 – 2008] who served for the same period as Putin returning to power again in the US . This was a major and successful political innovation that Putin imposed on his nation to the annoyance of the Americans who supported the opposition against him which he crushed, and is now using Syria as pay back time to thwart US backed Security Council support for Syrian Opposition, as was the case in Libya .

    The role of Hillary Clinton as the mother of the Arab Spring Uprising and its consolidation in 2012 is the stuff of history . So also is her beguilement of the military in Burma with the collaboration of Suu Kyi the famous prisoner of Burma that Hillary at last helped to free in 2012. That , together with the business trips to Asia to reinvigorate the ailing US economy that almost cost Obama his reelection made Hillary the most successful US Secretary of State of modern times and 2012 in particular. It is a tribute to the diplomatic dexterity of Hillary Clinton that the newly elected president of Egypt can claim that democracy has no religious color but is a game of numbers at the polls . Which is why I see the Egyptian president as speaking the truth and saying the obvious even though his party will use that majority eventually against the US because of its support for Israel , the arch enemy of the Palestinians and ipso facto that of all Arabs , including Egyptians .

    Lastly it is in the context of the leaders mentioned above that one must see the leadership of Asiwaju Tinubu of the ACN in the southwest which is the most politically sophisticated and articulate part of Nigeria . In 2012 this political leader provided an accommodating but firm leadership that placed political control of key western states under his control . More importantly the ACN – run states have become models in terms of efficiency and responsiveness to their neighbors . That is real regional power that can be harvested in elections in other places and Lagos State in particular is blazing a trail in this regard . Without mincing words Asiwaju Tinubu not only consolidated power successfully in 2012 he influenced Nigerian politics for good in the process of establishing his party as a credible alternative to the government in power in Abuja .