The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dayo Sobowale

  • Democracy, corruption  and austerity

    I thought of calling this piece – Between Cairo  and PortHarcourt – but changed my mind. This was  because that would reduce my concern and overall effort to a mere call for a protest or a demonstration when indeed there are other issues involved in various parts of the world that illustrate the problems of global governance in more realistic, if painful ways. It  may sound funny or unbelievable, but some of the events that happened this week simply beggar description in the way they have stood logic on its head .What  I am  saying here is that the concepts I  have eventually  chosen as the topic of the day have been stretched to their limits in terms of understanding  and   meaning judging from the way they  are being applied  or practiced   globally,  in recent times.

    Starting from Russia you find it difficult to accept that anti corruption activist Alexei Navalny who called Russia’s ruling party United Russia ‘a party of thieves and crooks ‘and  led demonstrations against the reelection of Russia’s President Vladmir Putin was himself jailed for embezzlement by a Russian Court  in  a rather opaque manner that has made EU nations to question the rule of law in Russia. In Athens, Greece,  the home of democracy,  legislators were protected by police as they passed laws this week to lay off thousands of civil servants   who  voted   for them as part of the measures required for Greece to get a financial bailout to save the Greek economy from total financial collapse. Worse still the Greek government had to ban public gatherings in Athens the Greek capital and home of democracy because   Wolfgang  Schaeuble  the German Finance Minister was in town and he represents the face of Germany  a pillar  of the EU zone that  is applying the bitter pill  as it were to  recover the Greek economy. Lastly Nelson Mandela was 95 this  week  although he himself could not celebrate because of his health,  the whole world did because the S African  Jacob Zuma had assured all  and sundry that the old man was improving. Which really is a pity when you remember that Nelson Mandela is the global icon of freedom and human dignity and yet he was not there to celebrate his birthday and I find that very painful indeed.

    Let us retreat again to Russia where the power of the state has been used to silence a dissident. Alexei Navalny was jailed for embezzling   $ 50000 when he was Adviser to a state governor in Russia but the whole world knows he was jailed for daring to say he wanted to be President of Russia and he has filed papers to be Mayor of  Moscow in the next elections. In today’s Russia however President Putin’s word is law and his power is despotic and far reaching in Russian society and politics. Since Alexei has been jailed for 5 years he cannot contest according to Russia’s constitution. But it is the bravery and character of the Russian dissident   in the face of   adversity that has my admiration. He is on record as saying that he was not afraid to go to jail for his convictions and his family was ready for it. Men or women with such convictions and attitude are rare in any clime or nation and I doff my heart for his sacrifice to rid Russia of corruption. Indeed on his way to jail he fired the last shot by telling his crying supporters to do something because’ the toad will not voluntarily leave the oil pipeline. ‘Which really is a language that is quite relevant and meaningful in our part of the world.

    The political tragedy in Greece too is one that really bothers me in connection with the   concept of democracy, its practice and values. In terms of irony however I will compare it with the fracas in the Rivers State House of Assembly in which a warrant has been issued for attempted murder by the state Police Commissioner for the Majority Leader of the State House of Assembly. The irony in the happenings in the legislatures in Athens and Port Harcourt stem from the role of the concept of immunity in the two law making institutions. In Athens the legislators were voting to sack some of the thousands of their supporters that put them in parliament and they know that even though they have immunity in Parliament they will need armed escorts to escape the fury and indignation of voters outside parliament. In Port Harcourt the Majority leader was trying to prevent a blatant theft of his majority in broad day light,   got violent in the process but knowing fully well like the legislators in Athens that he was covered by parliamentary immunity. The cruel irony in the two scenarios is that   while the Greek legislators are confident of police protection outside parliament where they enjoyed immunity, it is the police in Port Harcourt which has declared the legislators wanted for actions or offences committed in parliament where they constitutionally have immunity. Quite interestingly though, the Greek parliament had its own violent display of temper  earlier  during the austerity debate  when a legislator slapped a lady member in the full view of a world audience but nothing came out of it because Greece respects the democratic concept of immunity on the floor of any legislature.

    Worse still in PH  it  is the state police command which has refused to protect the state governor according to reports that is looking for legislators over parliamentary fracas on which there is immunity. But can the police sidetrack both the legislature and executive in a state as is happening so brazenly in Rivers state according to our constitution? The answer is a simple no and the police in that state should allow wise counsel to prevail most urgently in the interest of peace in that state and to protect the sovereign reputation of the Nigerian nation   in terms of respect for the rule of law in the global comity of   states.

    On Nelson Mandela we say happy birthday to a giant of our time though that joy  is tainted with some grief  at his illness and approaching mortality. On this  I have written about twice now not because I long for his departure  but because I  do not want to  be caught pants down by the inevitable,  both  as a writer and as a sincere admirer of this gem of an African leader . Nelson Mandela is passionate topic for me and some of my friends and his sickness even though he is 95 still gives one goose pimples. But then let us rejoice now at his birthday without any thought of his obituary. Let us remember the tall man in double breasted suit with the sunny smile dancing at the stadium when S Africa became a republic in 1994 and he became the first president of post apartheid S/Africa. Let us remember the selfless president who served one term of office and retired to private life when he could have been S Africa’s life president just for the asking. Let us wish Nelson Mandela well and may he recover soon or go early enough and not suffer the fate of former Israeli leader Ariel Sharon who has been in similar condition for years now. We remain loyal and grateful Madiba though our eyes are foggy. But you remain our hero, forever. Happy Birthday.

  • Leaders, ideologies  and development

    Leaders, ideologies  and development

    Last Wednesday the Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan signed a $ 1.1 bn low interest  loan deal with

    the Chinese President Xi  Jinping  during a state visit to China. The loan is for  infrastructure development and particularly for roads , airport terminals in four Nigerian cities  and a light rail  line in Abuja. In  Egypt which  is in  political  and socio economic  turmoil, with both the opposition and the formerly ruling Muslim Brotherhood disagreeing bitterly with the electoral plans and strategy of the leader of the interim government, put in place by the army which killed 51 pro – Morsy demonstrators in front of the army barracks where he was being detained recently,  the US  went on to honor a contract to deliver 4 F-16  planes to the Egyptian army now running Egypt by proxy. These two  events  namely a state visit to consummate an infrastructure contract and an arms sale to an army truncating democracy in a foreign land by a nation that calls itself the champion of global democracy and the market economy, open a pandora box on the quality of leadership in these nations  as well  as the manner of ideas  or ideologies  these leaders pursue in driving the economic development of their nations.

    Let me first of all mention some clichés that are relevant to these two events  and the nations involved. With regard to China the Chinese leader noted that   the development of their two nations had  brought about the visit and their growing economic relations and ties and ended with a Nigerian proverb that –  a man cannot sit down alone to plan prosperity. On  Egypt which is in the throes of two revolutions now,  with no end in sight,  the Egyptian masses  are learning the hard way that a revolution   like  Chinese  leader Mao Tse Tung   said  sometime  is not a  tea  party. On  the arms sale to the Egyptian  army the Egyptians again are learning that bread and butter politics take precedence over democratic  rights and norms, at least where US intervention in foreign lands  are concerned and  this is not the first time the US will show its hands this way  in Middle East  politics.

    Given  the state of Nigerian infrastructure the new China loan deal is much needed and the visit may well be quite worth the while.  But  of what use is infrastructure if it is not well maintained, which really is the sad story of Nigeria’s economic development. The  Chinese definitely provide a welcome alternative to the endless questions and conditionalities  of the IMF  but at least they should have asked how and what happened to our infrastructure facilities especially our Tin Can Island Port and its access road, the Apapa – Oshodi Express Way which is as unpliable as it is a death trap to all  traffic going to the port or passing by it on  a  daily basis.

    Secondly President Xi and President Jonathan could have been brought together by the mutual quest for the development of their two nations but  their background and culture on the use and maintenance of infrastructure are at  variance. China has a history of building infrastructure like roads and airports  to open up China starting from the time of Mao and this has continued after Mao died in 1976. Since  then China has opened up its economy from a planned  to a mixed one with the acknowledgement by the Communist Party , which runs China proudly affirming that its  economic ideology is –  Socialism  with Chinese Characteristics. Unless  the Chinese have some ulterior  motive   therefore, they should  put in place an after – sales service condition for the delivery of the infrastructure involved in the loan deal. Unless  of course too they are confident that we do not have the quality assurance capacity to  vet whatever infrastructure type they  give us with the loan which is a low interest  one anyway. Anyway still, the Chinese  need our oil  because of their huge population the largest in the world, and they  need our infrastructure to open up our nation too to have access to our minerals but then the low interest rates may be a Greek gift as  the Chinese are a very commerce and profit oriented nation just like the Americans they are competing with to dominate the world economy. Already ,  it is estimated that China’s demand for our oil  will rise  to ten times the present level at 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 which will be 10 times the present Chinese demand for our oil .

    Which  brings us again to  the Nigerian proverb quoted by the Chinese president that a man does not sit down alone to plan prosperity. This  may  be a Nigerian proverb and I wonder about its origin but  it  really does not reflect  the Nigerian situation in any context. This is because in Nigeria leaders don’t really plan for prosperity. They  stumble on it and call that good fortune which they are not ready to share with any one. Which  again reflects the nature of our political competition and economic management of our resources. Our  presidential  system vests power in the presidency at Aso Rock from where the largesse trickles down to the states and local government while the ruling party indulges in the enjoyment of power in the best syndrome of the winner – takes –  all embroidered by  the determination never to lose any election  by all,  or any means while still in government. Which really  is a pragmatic way of perpetuating power and since there is really a lacuna in terms of theory or knowledge to formulate a working ideology to govern, you are  welcome to call that, the average  Nigerian leader’s    working ideology.

    Notwithstanding its obvious flaws, the Nigerian leader or politician still feels superior in terms of ideology to his Chinese counterpart. That will explain why the Nigerian contingent to China  must have been surprised at the use of a Nigerian proverb  by the Chinese president . This is because Nigerians don’t regard Marxists as democrats but as dictators and this is really true in a way. The  Chinese Comminist Party which runs China has a membership of one million people and it is lording it over 1.4 bn Chinese people. China is a one party state and Nigeria runs a plural democracy although one  party has been in power since 1999 . The  Communist party in China has five – yearly party national conferences and a decadal change of leaders which just brought in Xi  Jinping as president and Li Keqiang  as Premier. Right now in Nigeria there is a debate on whether the Nigerian president will contest again in 2015  or continue for 6 years if a constitutional amendment goes through .In China there is orderliness in succession albeit dictatorial and not as democratic as in Nigeria. But the Chinese  Communist Party plans  a lot for the prosperity of its people and  it does it severely  alone and without competition. Yet it has made China a world power in terms of  high quality  infrastructure such as it is giving Nigeria  a loan for . My concern is that China should not stop at giving loans  for infrastructure  but make a condition for maintaining the infrastructure  imperative for giving such a  loan to Nigeria.

    While  one may be forgiven for calling China’s  mixed economy  and  Marxist government a dictatorship and Nigeria’s presidential system a unitary democracy,  as distinct from the federation it purports  to be,  one is in a real quandary on what to call  the effervescent street democracy  emerging  in  Egypt, where the army has become a referee  of sorts in the political imbroglio.  Egypt was a dictatorship under Housni Mubarak who guaranteed stability funded by the US yearly donation to the Egyptian coffers for the peace Egypt Anwar Sadat made with Israel’s Menachem Begin  on his historic visit to Israel. That peace made enemies for Sadat till he was assassinated at a military parade by a member of the Muslim Brotherhood   whose member   Mohammed Morsi  was elected recently  as  President of Egypt only to be deposed again by the military and replaced by an Interim president. In  two years therefore Egypt has moved from a Mubarak  dictatorship   to a full blown democracy   with Morsi and now with the incarceration of Morsi Egypt has become an explosive diarchy. But  then there is still no end in sight as both the opposition and elected government have rejected the future  election plans of Interim leader Adly Mansour   and the Muslim Brotherhood has vowed to fight to finish till the deposed Morsi is reinstated while  the army keeps watching . Predictably as usual in the past the army will mow down protesters as it has done in the past in the name of national security  and will return to power . Undoubtedly, Egyptians have learnt bitterly that the US does not hate the Egyptian army when it comes to contracts especially expensive military jets like F16 . That is why the US still supports the tyranny of the  House of Saud’s  monarchy in Saudi Arabia. That is why it still sold F16s to the Egyptian army mowing down Egyptian politicians and demonstrators goaded to the streets by Obama’s Cairo speech a couple of years ago. For Egypt and its demonstrators, democracy activists  and  actors  therefore, the horizon is bleak and bloody. Democracy has become an expensive ideology in Egypt and sooner than later the army will make it an expedient and disposable commodity. Which really will be a great  pity as it seems so so inevitable.

  • Sovereign rascality and  global democracies

    When  nations and world leaders   try to  hijack presidential planes or kidnap themselves and go on to deny such actions,  that is sovereign  rascality,  in my lexicon. When a president of a sovereign nation tells the world that a well known fugitive in the transit  lounge of an airport in his nation is not in that nation but on the move,  that again is diplomatic  mischief, which is another kind of sovereign rascality. Also when a nation  harboring a wanted fugitive in its   embassy  in the capital of another nation now turned round to accuse that host nation of bugging its embassy,  then that is carrying even sovereign rascality to the point of absurdity.

    This then is the kernel   of our discussion today as events unfold in Egypt where the Army is playing a love game with the Egyptian masses while suppressing their democracy,  albeit to their tumultuous cheers and approbation. More  bizarrely   though, the US, the catalyst of the whole scenario now has the temerity to warn the   Egyptian Army to return Egypt  to democracy as if that is the duty of the army which said it ousted former President   Mohammed  Morsi because he did not  ‘achieve the goal  of the people’  in Egypt,  as  if that Army   also  is the best or most suitable  judge of that too. Which means that in Egypt for now,  the Army  is the state,  or guardian  of the state, as long as the promise of election is in the air,  which reeks for now of the impending doom  and abortion of democracy in Egypt.

       Similarly   the   scenario in  Senegal where former President Hissen Habre of Chad from 1982  to 1990  is to face a special international court in that nation for crimes against humanity in his time as president , grips our attention in terms of  and  its deterrence,  even as we examine the problem of sovereign rascality amongst global democracies.

    Again,  I repeat  that  when nation states and their leaders say funny things they don’t mean, or say bluntly things they are  not expected to say ,  like  ordinary citizens of their nations, but this time  on the world stage  and in the comity of nations, then  they are indulging in sovereign rascality and making a mockery  of diplomacy which is the machinery for the conduct and process of international  relations in the comity of nations. Now let us look at the   specific  scenarios I have painted here today.

    We  start with Bolivia whose President Evo  Morale’s presidential plane was,  as it were,  ‘brought down to ground ‘in Vienna,  in Europe  for 11 hours  and searched purportedly for  carrying or hiding Edward Snowden the US citizen fugitive on the run from American justice. Morales has accused France, Spain and Portugal for being involved in scuttling his flight which was said to be  coming from a conference in Russia. Since Snowden was not seen on the plane, Morales was allowed to continue his journey but he has accused EU nations of ‘kidnapping him ‘for the time he spent at Vienna airport and France through its President Francois  Hollande has apologized, blaming the whole incident on poor communication. But the French embassy in La Paz, capital of Bolivia is already under siege and a conference of all Latin American states was called to address the insult to the Bolivian leader which the presidents of Brazil and Argentina have denounced as insult to all Latin American nations.

    So, really, what is the import  of this otherwise comical incident of people in high places and at the high altitudes of presidential jets? At  best  it is a comedy  of errors in that Snowden was not on the flight and the Bolivian president looked anything but presidential  in the shirt sleeves he wore in Vienna on the internet, raising rather pertinent burning  questions. Could the EU nations involved have stopped him on a private trip to embarrass him using the fugitive issue as excuse? If so must the whole of S. America go on umbrage on this? I  smell a rat in this fugitive on the run saga of accusations and recriminations and the mockery of location and transit status also fuelled by Vladmir Putin, Russia’s president who has not uttered a word on the Bolivia’s president trip to a conference in Russia prior to the grounding of Morale’s  plane or thereafter.

    Similarly the situation in the Ecuadorian embassy where  Wiki Leak fugitive Assange is hiding and the accusation that the embassy is being bugged beats the imagination. The  Ecuadorian authorities must be the original ostrich with its head buried in the sand. What do they expect of the British? Assange while holed up in the Ecuador embassy in London working and living in a room there, is on the internet coordinating the international effort to find sanctuary for Snowden, still in ‘nowhere  in Russia’  but a transit lounge, yet under the protection of Russia’s strongman Vladmir Putin. The  fact that the Ecuador Foreign Minister made the bugging charge in Ecuador and not in London showed how  unrealistic Ecuador  has been in the way and manner it is viewing the humiliation British diplomacy is going through over Assange’s stay in the Ecuador embassy while the British wait for him to step out   on a London street  and arrest him. That  wait in London  alone  must be the most agonizing and expensive wait for British foreign policy ever in modern times and Ecuador must just be careful.

    Going back to Egypt, a reversal of role especially for the army is palpable. The army is playing politics with the Egyptian people. It has supported their popular demand for the removal of an elected president and his party platform – the Muslim Brotherhood.  But the army and the Brotherhood are old acquaintances and sworn enemies. On getting Morsi elected as president the Brotherhood thought its time had come to get even with the army which suppressed it successfully under Nasser, Anwar Sadat and Housni Mubarak, Egypt’s three despots after the overthrow  of the Pharaoh in 1952. But the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi miscalculated in trying to rush in Islamic Law  and the army is the beneficiary of that error. The army is wooing the Egyptian masses with the air force drawing the sign of love in the air sky and soldiers observing their prayers even as they confront demonstrators to show that the army is as Islamic as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The new Interim President sworn in has promised a constitution that will stop Egypt from having tyrants and the Egyptian Army  is bidding its time. The fact that imprisoned Housni Mubarak was even asked to call on Morsi to step down is a pointer of sorts. Like the patient vulture,  the Egyptian army  is waiting to swoop  on the carcass  of the Egyptian populist democracy which  for now does not really know what it wants .Which really is  a pity.

    Hissen  Habre’s arraignment finally in Senegal  is good for the future of good political  administration in   Africa  generally. This is because I have a lot of respect for the new administration in that nation. The standard of democracy is high in Senegal and that was why the US president just visited the place. Also Obama  could not have influenced Senegal’s decision to try Habre who butchered  his people while in power as  the US  did  not subscribe to the EU propelled international Criminal Court of Justice   as  it has got a treaty not to bring US citizens  to the ICC. But Senegal has shown respect for African dignity in arraigning the trial in its capital Dakar rather than the Hague where Charles Taylor   of Liberia was taken. That is a clear message to African leaders who have no respect for the rule of law that although the mills of justice may grind slowly they grind exceedingly fine   and the Court  in Dakar may well  be an open house at the end of the day for all African leaders who rule and misuse power with impunity like Hissen Habre will soon find out as  he faces his own inevitable nemesis.

  • Globalisation and the politics of ideas

    Globalisation and the politics of ideas

    When a state governor in Port Harcourt dares the State Police Commissioner to shoot him when he leads a

    demonstration that the Commissioner has refused to approve for security reasons then a real crisis of confidence and security is imminent. Yet that is what happened between Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State and the State Police boss over the week and it was carried all over the world. In the US, before coming to Africa on tour, President Barak Obama sent a message to some same sex couples congratulating them on the slim decision of the US Supreme Court to cancel a US law that excluded gay couples from certain property rights on the grounds that they are not man and woman. That in Obama’s view is a victory for freedom, a stance echoed by Amnesty International which at about the same time asked African nations and governments to desist from the practice of homophobia which is hatred of homosexuals.

    In Qatar the unimaginable happened when the Emir of Qatar aged 61 suddenly handed power to his son aged 33 in a nation or area that kings reigned forever or were forcibly removed from office as the abdicating Emir did to his own father when he seized the Qatar royal throne in the nineties. On security matters and the law, the US received a lecture on legal process from Hong Kong over the extradition application the US put in over the arrest of Intelligence whistle blower Edward Snowden who the Hong Kong Authorities allowed to travel because he had not violated Hong Kong’s law which Hong Kong claim is the superior authority on Hong Kong territory. To rub salt into US injured ego on this, the whistle blower proceeded via Moscow which turned a blind eye ostensibly enroute to Ecuador whose Foreign Affairs Minister gave another homily on freedom and human rights to the US as the fugitive whistle blower was in transit to Ecuador whose London Embassy is housing another famous whistle blower the Wiki Leak editor Assange. Strange events and happenings you may call all these global news, but thanks to globalization and information technology, one can keep abreast of the new ideas and perceptions they generate and acknowledge that nothing is sacrosant in the world anymore.

    From the unthinkable squabble between the Governor and the Police Commissioner in PH, to Obama’s happiness at gay marriages, to the unexpected abdication in modern Arabia and the evolution of Ecuador as the new global sanctuary for whistle blowers tormenting the US, it is apparent that the world is moving on in terms of ideas like the fast bullet trains in China and France which race with time to deliver passengers to their destinations in the twinkle of an eye .But then let us pause awhile to digest the nitty gritty of these strange events which are like a clash of titans and even civilizations but which certainly strongly challenge the status quo as we know it today.

    First Governor Amaechi’s ‘shooting’ challenge to the PC is a sure sign of a breakdown in communication and confidence between the executive and security arm of government in the state. So the state is on the verge of anarchy and the PC should just have asked for a new posting or assignment from his bossesas the Governor is the elected Chief Executive Officer of the State in charge of Security in the Presidential System of government in our constitution. The Governor had earlier reportedly accused the PC of whistle blowing on matters discussed at the State Security Council Meeting in which he is a key member. The fact that in spite of this the PC is staying put and the Governor has issued the ‘shoot’challenge is bad for democracy not only in Nigeria but in any part of the world. If the state governor feels threatened by his chief security officer in the state, then the rule of law is in jeopardy in the state and security is none existent. Which means that the common man is on his own or should just flee the state and that is a real pity. Yet a solution has to be found before the situation degenerates further.

    President Obama’s happiness at the rights of gay couples is distinctly American happiness which most Africans definitely find distasteful given their own cultural and religious background and history – and the US leader had better understand that on his African tour. In S Africa he will be on safer ground as that nation recognizes gay rights but he should not broach the topic in Tanzania and Senegal a very Islamic nation. Indeed at a news conference in Senegal Obama asked for respect for different laws while the President of Senegal retorted that Senegal was not ready to change its laws and that does not make it homophobic as the Amnesty International was saying of such African nations. In addition it is not the duty of Amnesty International to tell the legislatures of African nations what laws to enact to govern their people. Warning them on Homophobia is therefore an extravagant and insensitive preoccupation and is a violation of their sovereign rights to make laws as expected in a democracy founded on human rights that Amnesty International is expected to defend and promote instead of heckling them on gay rights which in some places is just a taboo from time immemorial .

    The abdication in Qatar is a sign of the changing times especially in the Arab world. According to the IMF, Qatar has the highest GDP in the world and is very much involved in the conflict in Syria on the side of the opposition. In Qatar itself where the royal family holds sway, the Arab Spring street revolutions in North Africa has rattled royal nerves on tenacity of office and that may have propelled the abdication. Similarly the abdicating Emir may not want to present himself as another coup target for his son as he did to his father, hence the move to step aside in good time. What this shows again is that life Emirship may become an anachronism and perhaps that too may translate into more power sharing and diffuse political participation by more people in Qatar’s closed, and very wealthy monarchy. Surely for the monarchy in Qatar, the fear of an uprising similar to that in the Arab Spring revolutions in S Africa and neighboring Bahrain is the beginning of wisdom in modern governance and political survival .

    Fleeing whistle blower Edward Snowden has provided ample opportunity for some nations to poke fun at the US human rights record. The President of Russia Vladmir Putin confirmed that Snowden is in the transit lounge at a Russian Airport but is a free citizen to go anywhere outside Russia. The US has accused Russia of treating its request for Snowden’s extradition with levity undeserved by a UN Security Member like the US. But the Russians are not moved. Similarly the Chinese Communist Party’s newspaper laughed at the Americans for hypocrisy for condemning human rights violation elsewhere while gathering private information on individuals and institutions at home, which is what Snowden has exposed. Really Snowden is charged by the US government with theft of government property, unauthorized communication of national defence information and communications of classified communications intelligence.

    Let us look at the Snowden saga again. Morally what Snowden has done is a breach of confidence and he has betrayed his nation. But he told some people that as a computer expert he could not stand gathering information on people and institutions without their consent which he thinks is a violation of human rights and he is certainly right on this. Obviously he has hit a raw spot in America’s foreign policy by divulging such information and must be ready for the consequences. Even if he gets refuge in Ecuador he will be a refuge ever on the run as he will have problems once the present President of Ecuador who is anti America completes his second and final term and a new president well disposed to the US comes to power. For now, the US is feeling the heat and power of globalization which it set in motion years ago. The powerful US cannot catch one man just because the whole world is watching how the US plays by its own rules on international law, human rights and the sanctity of human life. That is a very exhilarating and educative spectacle indeed.

  • Commerce, wealth and global  power

    Commerce, wealth and global  power

    At  the just  concluded  G8  summit  of the world’s  wealthiest  nations,  in Lough Erne N Ireland,  talks are  to begin on   a deal   said   to be worth 100  bn pounds  which is expected   to be the biggest trade deal the world has seen so far.  The deal  which is expected to take  off in two years time is expected to create 2m  jobs.  This  again   has  buttressed   the well known fact  of  history,  economic growth and development,  that  trade and commerce    are   the engine   of wealth  and prosperity   amongst  both individuals and nations. Adam Smith’s seminal book Wealth  of Nations come to mind in this regard  although in a different perspective. Today  I  look at wealth creation amongst individuals  and nations and its relationship with the acquisition of power and influence, as well as  the use of such wealth for the development  of society  and the world at large.

    Let  me first of all assert that I see the  mega  US – EU  deal  famously   called – 100bn  economic bonanza   as   a game of economic survival  in which   the western world  is trying its best not to play second fiddle globally   in commerce  to  the  robust  Chinese economy.  This  is a global   trade dragon  which is striking deals  all over the world looking for oil, minerals and products   and building airports, highways and   seaports it needs to  access and  open up the world economy  and get the resources  to  satisfy  the mammoth   consumption demands of   its  over  one billion people,   making  China,  the world’s largest economy   in terms  of population. In   addition   the South East Asian nations especially the Asian tigers   namely  S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia,  Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand –  seem  to have evolved an economic strategy  that made them immune to the ravages of the  2008 global melt  down – a situation   western nations have found embarrassing and unacceptable as they felt that they  taught   SE  Asians the market economics that Asian global companies have mastered so well and have used   so  profitably. Similarly,  the Latin American nations of S America   seem  to have  weathered  the global  melt down of 2008  admirably  to the chagrin of the west.  Brazil  bagged the hosting of two lucrative sporting events  based on its performing economy and national wealth  in a world  filled  with struggling economies which dared not bid for such hosting. But now that seem to have attracted the ire of its people who were demonstrating  this week  at the   FIFA Confederation Cup soccer venues in Brazil  and protesting that the wealth of Brazil has not trickled down to the masses  and is located amongst the rich or the soccer barons in Brazil . Which really is tragic,  given Brazillians well known love for soccer and the trouble former President  Lula Da Silva   went through  in getting both the 2014  World Cup  and 2016  Summer Olympics  Hosting Rights  for Brazil.

    Compare  this with  the news from neighboring Cameroon where the Chairman of the national football  association got  elected in an election he was not present at because he was in police custody on corruption  charges  based on his actions as the boss of the football  body. It was alleged that FIFA  told the Cameroon government that he must be allowed to contest and the government played ball because soccer is popular in Cameroon and of course Issa Hayatou, the long serving FIFA Vice Chairman is in support  and is calling the shots in muzzling his own government in  the fight against corruption in Cameroon. Which really shows the other side of the coin in the misuse of power  by the powerful and wealthy   against  the larger public good of society  and in the  pursuit of selfish  interests.

    Let  me also state here that wealthy individuals have a head start  in getting power and influence in any society  that is highly materialistic. Nigeria is of course   is such a society   in which successful business men in politics have superior advantage   over less endowed  political competitors  in getting elective offices through the use of their wealth.  In  the past this was not so as most Nigerians refused to take money to vote for the highest bidder. But that has since changed as politicians have asked their supporters to take money if  offered by their opponents  since it is stolen money but to still vote for the man of their choice. Which really is a sort of moral quandary.

    Wealthy  individuals  can also be target of  some governments in distress or dire economic straits. A  good example is that of the tax  fraud case involving Lionel  Messi in Spain. The  Argentine soccer star and his  dad have been arraigned this week for tax evasion  to the tune of  4m euros . This comes at a time when Spain is in financial crisis  and the rate of unemployment amongst youths is at its highest. It also comes at a time when  the Argentine government has nationalized Spain’s interest in the largest  oil company  in Argentina. Argentina also  has struck oil  and  is facing a better future  now than   Spain which during Argentina’s debt default crisis of   2001   bought  Argentine prized assets  for pittance. Spain  of course  was  the colonial  master  of Argentina and indeed  the whole of Latin America except Brazil. During  the  colonial era Spain used  the plantation system and pigmentisation to exploit and repress the local communities  which have now become wealthy nations unwilling to help Spain out of its present economic distress  after wasting  over  the years,  the huge wealth it acquired under colonialism. Today Spain  is one of the debtor nations of the EU called PIGS namely Portugal, Ireland. Greece  and Spain

    Similarly  in the comity of nations the vocal nations are the commercially successful ones. Never mind that when the tall leaders of the G8 stepped out for a walk this week  on CNN they easily outpaced German Chancellor Angela Merkel,  the only woman in their   midst  as she disappeared into the background. Germany   indeed is a  ringing voice of wealth and commerce  in the global  comity of trade and commerce, very well respected for its export of quality engines  and the tested skills of its companies  and their personnel. Also  aside from David Cameron, the   President  of Russia  Vladmir   Putin  glowed  with pride  at  the  G8  talks  for obvious reasons . Russia is awash with oil money as the largest producer  of oil in the  world   and together with China,  the largest  consumer,  it is building the longest pipeline in the world between their two nations. Similarly China’s new leader and his beautiful wife were given the red carpet treatment in the White House and the Kremlin recently  because China has become the sweet  bride of global business, commerce and politics. Undoubtedly Russia’s new found wealth has been translated into diplomatic mettle  and is being used to counter US policy in Syria successfully to keep Syria’s President Bashar Assad  in power against all  odds.

    I  look  at the new US –EU   deal  as an  economic innovation in the very best tradition  of Schumpeter’s theory that for  companies to survive they must continually improve and look for new ways of doing things.  The   same   applies  to  nations and this  is what this deal has revealed. The  western world has woken up from its arrogant slumber atop world trade and commerce and the WTO  wrangling and distraction and is now ready to compete   in a global market  whose structure  and substance have rendered its  present  trade and  economic strategies   obsolete  and redundant.  By  opening up borders  and removing trade barriers, the US  and EU  nations are opening up new frontiers just as the US opened up its wild, wild west in days of yore. The arrogance of limiting wealth  and commerce through extravagant control of competition should give way to  vibrant  and support  for innovation and innovative deals that  enrich the quality of life in the environment  and provide jobs and security for all  hard working people in as many companies and institutions as possible. This  is what ECOWAS should emulate in West Africa. Especially now that Ghana  our neighbor has struck oil.

    Politically Ghana seem to be ahead of Nigeria in  terms of respect for democratic values and a ruling party has lost power in an election   there   and there was no post election violence. But Ghana should not copy the way Nigeria has mismanaged its oil wealth whose distribution  of   oil wells have created individuals wealthier than some states. It  should  not allow a situation whereby oil theft  is tackled  by giving security contracts to former oil thieves and justifying that by insisting that oil revenues have increased as a result of such dubious policy. Ghana  must  not use the oil money  to develop non oil producing areas while ignoring the oil producing areas  which really are the goose that lays the golden egg. Also  Ghana  must from the onset use oil revenues to build schools, factories, create jobs and bridge social and economic iniquities  that  have created the likes  of Boko Haram in Nigeria’s north. Lastly  Ghana must police and secure its borders  with the Sahel for religious extremism which grows while those expected to contain it look the other way to justify increased security expenditure. That way Ghana will earn the respect of the international community   from its oil wealth , and not its scorn, as we have done so effortlessly with our oil wealth.

  • June 12, political  parties and survival

    I  write with  the spirit  of the aborted election   of June 12 of 1993  won by  the late MKO Abiola  at the back of my mind, spurring me on. It  is not as if the memory brings a positive impulse  to write  or do something   about it.  It is just that the remembrance of what could have been, but never was and did not happen, provides a watershed to  reminisce on a  unique political tragedy in Nigeria’s rich political history  and development – and  perchance  draw  conclusions and lessons  from a missed opportunity and lost chance to make democracy function according to the wishes  of the people  at the ballot box  20  years  ago. In addition June 12 2013 provided another opportunity to look at the functions and prospects of    some  big global political parties, their conduct after winning elections and the use and misuse they make of their mandates. Also  we shall look  at  how an old political party   in Africa  long accustomed to being underground and repressed  by successive dictators,  battle a   great threat to the food security of its people .

    Let  me first start  by attempting a definition   of what I  have tagged the spirit of June 12   which really is the Nigerian June 12 –  as distinct from the Iranian June 12  2009  election which too was a landmark in terms of elections in that  globally maligned   Islamic  theocracy.   Let me state  again that the details of  June 12 are  immaterial here as they are part of our political culture  and   history already. The  spirit of  June 12  therefore  hangs around the notion that free and fair elections are possible in Nigeria and that Nigerians are capable of organizing and conducting such elections. Secondly the spirit of June 12  rests  on the belief that mandates are sacred and not purchasable by the  highest  bidder  in any horse trade to subvert democratic mandates for which elections are conducted .Thirdly, with the benefit of hind sight Nigerians now know that elections are their only hope to change  or endorse any political party in or out of power. These  then   are the   tripods or legs on which   my spirit  of June 12 rests and it is on them that  I  now proceed on the journey of today.

    In  Nigeria,  the PDP  is the largest political party and it has  been in power since   May 29  1999 when it won the presidential elections of that year  and  its candidate,  retired General Olusegun Obasanjo  became the first  Nigerian to govern  both  as a military ruler  and politician. Obasanjo ruled for the constitutional   two terms  and we shall examine here very briefly how the PDP  has fared since,  in   terms of the spirit of June 12 .Secondly,  we shall  examine in   the same light  the news from London last week that  a court in Britain has agreed that compensation be paid to aged Mau Mau Kenyans who fought British  colonialism for Independence. That  comes  on the heels of the request for the start of the trial  for the 2007  post   election   violence  at  the Hague  of the  son, of the  leader of    Mau Mau,   Uhuru  Kenyatta  who has just been elected the president of Kenya.  We  top  this up with the  problem posed for the newly  elected  government in Egypt by the decision of Ethiopia to  dam the Blue Nile when as everyone knows   and says   –  without the Nile there will be no Egypt.

    Starting   with Nigeria, the  PDP  has won every presidential election in Nigeria since  1999  such that one would think that Nigeria is a one party state –  which it definitely is not. The PDP’s electoral feat or success had prompted a former Chairman of the party  to once boast that the party will rule Nigeria for 50  years. Such  boasts have however not cut any ice with some key Nigerian  leaders  notably  Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu,  the former Governor of Lagos State and leader of the ACN whose party now controls the South west of the nation. But the might and electoral  wizardry of the PDP is such that Asiwaju and leaders  of the other big parties know that they cannot face the PDP alone and   they   have decided   to  pool their  political and leadership resources and take on the PDP monster  by forming a political party  called  APC  to confront the ruling party.

    But  what has the PDP achieved in the spirit of June 12? The first thing is that it tried to annihilate the spirit by creating a rival date as democracy day when most Nigerians regard June 12 as the ultimate  democracy day in their political agenda. Secondly the PDP has  rigged successfully the elections it has won since 1999 including that one too. This has shaken the  belief  of Nigerians  in the spirit of June 12 that free and fair elections  are possible, but it has not dashed their hopes that the best is yet to come in the organization and conduct of free and fair elections   in Nigeria. Indeed    the current president who is reported to be attempting a reorganization of the PDP in the face of looming implosion and balkanization of the party, was a beneficiary of the unrelenting hope of Nigerians that a free and fair election is a possible and ultimate goal for the Nigerian political system . Unfortunately there is  a broad  concensus that this administration has not delivered on its mandate. Yet  Nigerians are gearing up in the  spirit of June 12 that 2015 provides another grand opportunity to get even with the failure of governance and rupture of the mandate so generously given from the south in 2011.  Any   contrived   digression or talk of a one 6- year term or the continuation of the two 4 –year terms is  contingent on the holding of elections in 2015  and in the spirit of June 12  Nigerians,   are  hopeful,  waiting and watching   to exercise  their voting and democratic  rights again.

    In  Kenya,   the spirit  of June 12  has been violated  several times and with impunity too   both in the 2007  elections claimed to have been won by  the Ruholah  Odinga  and  after which there  was post election violence and the one this year   in March,   won by  Uhuru  Kenyatta . In  2007  Raila  Odinga traded his mandate in for a  concoct ted   extra constitutional  position of PM from which he contested the presidential elections in 2013  and lost. Obviously Kenyans are not enamored with politicians who sell their mandates for a mess of pottage. Also Kenyans believe in their democracy and have hope in it. That is why they have voted for a man who is charged with killing people in the post election violence of 2007   as president in March this year, spite  of the charge of murder against him by the International Criminal Court at the Hague .But  the Kenyan nation, people and president should  be careful with the Greek gift that  the Mau Mau   compensation package represents to me. This is because  if the British  can now suddenly respect the law over an issue that happened several years ago,  over   colonial policy, why  should  the Kenyan nation not   be expected   to respect  a modern law that catches up with Uhuru  Kenyatta  the son of Jomo Kenyatta leader of Mau Mau whose  members are being compensated by a British  government that was not in place during colonial times? Surely the Mau Mau Compensation and the trial of Kenya’s new president at the Hague are bound to rock Kenya’s politics for some time, either for good or bad .

    Lastly,  the  plans by Ethiopia to dam the Blue Nile   and build the Grand Renaissance Dam  costing $ 3 bn is a  dagger aimed at Egypt’s  heart and jugular. Already Egypt has threatened war on the basis of its food security as the Nile fuels its huge agriculture and irrigation system. But the dam is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity. This is not the first time that Egypt’s vulnerability on the Nile has been threatened. Before North and South Sudan broke up, the South threatened to redirect the Nile which rises from its territory because Egypt was supporting the Arab north in the Sudan Crisis. Those who live in glass houses should not throw stones is the lesson for Egypt here. Ethiopia too must look after the interests of its people and it doesn’t have to look over its shoulders at Cairo before doing this as it has not violated Egypt’s territory. Egypt’s new democracy should quickly find out where it has stepped on Ethiopia’s toes. The Blue Nile has served the two nations which are ancient civilizations for ages. If  what  threatens Egypt’s existence  now suddenly crops up,  then the Egyptians  had better think twice before threatening  war. According to Ethiopia’s PM   Hailemariam  Desanegh,  Egypt  should not consider the  war  option. ‘All  options including a war  he asked   of Egypt. ‘I don’t  think they will take that option unless    they  go mad.  Surely    a word is enough for the wise on this new threat  to Egypt’s   food security.

  • Taxing growth, democracy and sovereignty globally

    The in- thing in global politics nowadays is for governments to pride themselves on being democratic.

    The Chinese and Russsians, astute and unrepentant communists as they are, claim to be as democratic as the nations of Western Europe and the USA, the globally recognized champions of mass democracy. To press home democratic credentials either side point at economic success and growth earned in the process of consummating each side’s version of democracy. The Chinese and Russians practice a form of guided democracy while the West and US flaunt democratic success richly laced with respect for human rights and property laws. Both concepts have been exported round the world with local and national peculiarities. But prosperity and growth have always been used to justify the success of any political system . So for now , the fact that Russia is the largest exporter of oil in the world today and China the biggest consumer puts a shine on their type of democracy which tarnishes immensely the human and property rights version of the west which seem to have led its champions into Euro zone poverty, unstable governments and street demonstrations in the capitals of Europe.

    In addition, nations and their leaders guard their sovereignty jealously even though they rub shoulders democratically as equals in the comity of nations or the UN. That was why during the Cold War, the former Soviet Union and USA jostled for influence and power amongst the nations and territories of the world. This went on until economic realities crashed the Soviet Union and the weight of colonialism created independence prematurely for European colonies while unleashing dictators in democratic garbs on the unsuspecting citizens on the newly independent nations of Asia and Africa. The Soviet Union lost the Cold War when Gorbachev became its leader and introduced Glasnost (transparency) and Perestroika (openness) and when the Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989. There after the US became the sole policeman of the world and the lone super power and it proceeded to make the market economy, privatisation and democracy the global standard of leadership and governance through the agency of the Bretton Wood institutions namely the World Bank and IMF. These institutions subsequently gave loans with conditionalities that crippled the economic and political stabilities of borrower nations leading to social political stability and anarchy.

    Events in different parts of the world this week however indicate a reversal of roles of sorts amongst the powerful nations of the world as well as their cronies and supporters in the comity of nations and as expected amongst their sworn enemies as well. That really is the sumptuous meal for analysis today and I wish you bon apetit.

    I introduce the menu with a quote from the new Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif sworn in this week in Islamabad as PM of his nation for the third time around. Nawaz insisted that Pakistan is not a second rate democracy and that is real food for thought given the political scenario in that volatile nation. In Turkey the PM Tayyip Erdogan refused to cut short a foreign trip over demonstrations on an environmental matter in an arrogant display of power that had his Deputy PM apologizing for police brutality against demonstrators in his absence and his being made to assure his hosts abroad that the spiraling demonstrations in his nation will not go the way of the Arab Spring of two years ago that led to the fall of dictators in Egypt , Tunisia and Libya.

    In Nigeria and Syria the developments and issues revolved around terrorism and its curtailment and the loss of sovereignty directly or indirectly in the process. The EU warned Syria on the use of Hizbollah a terrorist group based in Lebanon in fighting the anti government forces in Syria on the Lebanese border. In Nigeria the US government in Washington placed a bounty of over $7m on the head of the leader of Boko Haram, the terrorist Islamist group that has killed thousands of Nigerians and bombed Churches with impunity in Northern Nigeria as the government vacillated between amnesty and military force in quashing the insurgency which has castrated economic activities in the North Eastern part of the country. The American gesture which the Nigerian government admitted was a welcome development was predicated on the fact that Boko Haram has links with Al Qada in the Middle East as well as Al Qada in Islamic Maghreb spanning North Africa and the Sahel on the fringe of the Sahara Desert bordering the northern part of ECOWAS states. More ominously however Al Qada through its global leader this week called on Muslims to fight the Assad regime in Syria as well as the US and western nations trying to set up a crony state in Syria . Which makes you wonder on whose side Al Qada is, at least in Syria. Now let us digest these issues one by one.

    Let us go back to Pakistan and Turkey and the utterances of the two leaders this week. First the new Pakistani leader Nawaz Sharif asked the US to stop the drone attacks being used to fight the Taliban in Pakistan even though he knows quite well that President Barak Obama recently just reiterated that the US will not stop the drone attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan because the attacks have been effective. Nawaz also knows that even though he is PM, Pakistan is under the gun and control of the military which has benefitted immensely from the security arrangement whereby the US funds the Pakistan nation and its military to snuff out those the US has classified as terrorists in the mountains of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. So who is Nawaz Sharif trying to bluff or fool with his rhetoric about second class democracies or the bit on stopping drone strikes? Obviously he was just barking at the moon and he certainly knows that.

    In Turkey, the PM‘s earlier disdain of the demonstrators was a lesson in arrogance. Yet, his attitude was understandable if very mistaken. He had led his party to three back to back elections in recent times and the Turkish economy is booming and growing, but he has forgotten that political goodwill is a highly perishable commodity. It needs to be nurtured and sustained on a daily basis. Like a delicate flower that needs daily watering to survive. Erdogan took his popularity for granted and he is having to pay a huge price to get the heart of his public and popularity back from his followers in Turkey. Really I do not think he deserves the fate of the tyrants who fell during the Arab Spring two years ago in N Africa.

    With regard to Syria and Nigeria , the issue of sovereignty, and a lost one at that for both nations, bestride their horizon like a colossus. For the super powers, for they are back, these nations present a convenient environment to put their foot in the door for a subsequent grand entrance. This is because as in every day struggle of life amongst individuals, there is no free lunch in global politics and diplomacy amongst nations. The reasons for this conclusions are obvious. If the US bounty brings in or rounds up the Al Qada leader for justice, the credit for preserving Nigeria’s security and ipso facto its sovereignty, goes to the US, and not the Nigerian government. That is pragmatic politics and diplomacy. Just as the French preserved Mali’s sovereignty by sending French troops to dislodge the Islamists marching on Bamako, while the AU and ECOWAS dithered and vacillated on when and what to do, to arrest a situation that would have consumed their collective sovereignty and security if the French had not intervened. In Mali’s case the government had literally collapsed and the military had been restrained from staging a coup. In Nigeria there is a virile military and a buoyant political class. Yet the US government placed a ransom on the head of the no1 enemy of the Nigerian nation and the government of the day called that a welcome development .

    Lastly, Al Qada leader’s call on Muslims to fight both sides of the Syrian conflict is indeed a recipe for global anarchy. Worse still it has created a battle ground from which Russia will certainly return from obscurity and isolation to its former position as a world power. This can internationalise the Syrian Crisis and threaten the Strait of Homuz in the Gulf which is the oil life line of Western Europe. The Strait is close to Iran which has of late threatened to close it – a threat the US has not taken lightly. But with Russia on the side of Syria’s Assad and Russia afloat with oil, the scenario will be different and the west may have to reappraise its strategic and military options in the Middle East as a whole. This is because the Syrian Crisis is redefining the concepts we have discussed today and one can only watch in amazement as the situation unfolds unpredictably as it has done these past few weeks.

  • Terrorism, poverty  and  the democracy agenda

    Terrorism, poverty  and  the democracy agenda

    In  Addis Ababa  this week the Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegh and current Head  of the African Union accused the International Criminal Court of Justice of racial bias in the prosecution of errant world leaders and pointedly stated that the AU is not well disposed to the prosecution of the current president of Kenya  Uhuru  Kenyatta and the Vice President for the  post election violence in the 2007  presidential elections in that nation. In  Accra Ghana  the president of the country noted that Islamic militancy will soon overcome the whole of West  Africa if care is not taken and that he is saying this even though Ghana does not have such insurgency on its hand right now. As  Nigeria celebrated the government’s Democracy day  on May 29 and key former presidents shunned the invitation of incumbent Nigerian president to the occasion, it turned out that the UN  Secretary – General  Ban Ki Moon was celebrating the UN  Peace Keepers Day   on the same day and was commending fallen Nigeria’s soldiers as ten percent of  the Nigerian UN Peace Keepers have died  in 2012 in the UN peace keeping role and the UN published their  names on that day.

    At  another global forum the   Jim  Yong Kim,   the Group MD of the World Bank  was audacious  enough to announce that the World body was planning to eradicate global poverty  by 2030  by making access to  health facilities affordable globally in pursuit of  the goal of global  poverty alleviation .At  the other end in Syria however   Bashar  Assad the president of that nation boasted  that the balance of power is with the Syrian army in its war with those he called terrorists  and he accused some nations namely Saudi  Arabia  and Turkey of financing the rebellion in his nation while acknowledging that Hizbollah, the Party  of God in Lebanon  is fighting alongside the Syrian army in the war to preserve what he called the territorial integrity  of Syria.

    It is my  contention today that world leaders  on occasions behave like the proverbial ostrich with its head buried in the sand while the body is there for all to see . Secondly while some cling to power by all or any means because they cannot contemplate life out of office, there  are still some who believe  that to serve humanity is still a possible task in spite of manmade  challenges  and obstacles  both  locally and abroad. Thirdly in the name of democracy, security  and political stability,   politicians and world leaders  mostly indulge in promoting their whims and caprices and  in muscling their opponents  to submission if not annihilation in pursuit of their   so called political agenda   and objectives. Let me now hook these observations to the news items I have highlighted today.

    Starting with Kenya, let me  state  categorically  that the accusation by the AU Chairman that the ICC is racially prejudiced against African Leaders is a false alarm and is indeed a dangerous case  of jaundice   and prejudice. It cannot survive any moral scrutiny either in Addis Ababa or Nairobi. This is a fact the  current president and Vice president of Kenya will be the first to admit as they were not on the same side during the 2007 elections or the  post  election violence. They later buried the hatchet and contested on the same ticket in 2013 knowing  that the charges at the Hague were  hanging on their neck like the proverbial sword  of Damocles . That their ticket clinched the Kenyan presidency in spite of the ICC charges is a victory for democracy and the dictum that a people deserve the leaders they have. That however does not absolve them of culpability in the murder and mayhem of the 2007 post election   violence in Kenya. The charge that 90%  of those being prosecuted  by ICC are Africans is sheer  persecution complex and a product of colonial mentality. The world is a global village and such sentiments belong to the past. That is why the Arab Spring revolution got rid of leaders like Housni Mubarak and Muammar Gaddafi. If the AU wants, it can   negotiate a reprieve or pardon or even a stay of prosecution for the Kenyan leaders. It should not however insult the intelligence of Africans by talking of racial bias towards African leaders by the ICC. That  is an anachronism and a dubious  charge  indeed  that  cannot hold water.

    On the charge by the Ghanaian President John  Mahama  that Islamic Militancy will  destabilize West Africa if care is not taken , I cannot agree  more. He  gave  the example  of the French Military  intervention in Mali  and the need for the AU  to form a standing intervention force to counter  regional insurgency  and I cannot agree more. What I  think is lacking is the moral  capacity  and commitment on    the  part of both political  and religious  leaders in the region to tackle the problem of militancy head on,  on a once and for all basis , instead  of the present half- hearted approach of thinking that the problem will go away as rapidly as it has surfaced. In addition the issue of negotiating or succumbing to blackmail while keeping  trained armed forces at bay is counterproductive as it gives the militants  a   false  sense of strength and importance  as such vacillations and dithering     give them ample time to select their next target  for terror with maximum impact.

    Next, according to UN reports, Nigeria made the largest contribution to world peace in 2012 . This is according to the UN Report that  17 Nigerians were killed  last  year  on peacekeeping duties  and this was announced on Nigeria’s Democracy Day  May 29  which also is the UN Peace  Keeping Day. The UN Secretary General   Ban Ki Moon therefore commended the Nigerian Peace Keeping Contingent for making the greatest human sacrifice for world peace in 2012. Which to me is a source of pride as a Nigerian  and I seize this opportunity to commiserate with the families of the gallant soldiers who made the supreme sacrifice in the service of their nation. Incidentally May 29 was picked by the Obasanjo Administration  as Democracy Day when it was elected  into  office in 1999. This year however Obasanjo shunned the Democracy Day in Abuja and was instead in Dutse, Jigawa State where he was showering praises on the state Governor Sule  Lamido at the First Jigawa State Investment Forum. In Abuja President Goodluck  Jonathan was busy,  lamentably and apologetically pleading with Nigerians bent on judging his two years in office, to have a marking scheme before doing that –whatever that means.

    At  the World Health  Assembly – WHA  in  Geneva,  Switzerland the World Bank Group MD Jim Yong Kim, an American and a medical  doctor spoke on the theme –  Poverty, Health  and the Human Future- and noted that to end poverty and boost shared prosperity, the nations of the world need to drive global growth by investing in human capital, health education and social protection for all their citizens. He made the revealing news that out of pocket health expenses force about 100m people into poverty every year. Heidentified three  areas that health delivery can enhance economic growth  and national planned efforts to make universal health delivery achievable through access, quality  and affordability. Yong Kim seems to be saying what one has always known that a sound mind needs a sound body. Coming from a global financial institution noted for infrastructure development and finance, the pursuit of poverty alleviation by 2030  by this unique American head of the World  Bank,  is a   most welcome  welfarist   approach  to  global growth  and economic    development.  This is because democracy at the end of the day is about the welfare of the citizenry and a better life for those who elected those who now tyrannise them globally  .Surely  the World Bank’s   Group  MD poverty alleviation approach to economic growth  and prosperity through access to quality and affordable health facilities by 2030  is highly commendable –  and is a huge, innovative step in the right  direction. We wish  him well.

    Lastly the war in Syria has shown clearly that democracy in that nation will not come on  platter  of gold. Rather than  be frightened by the prospect of becoming a Housni Mubarak being driven to court in a cage or a  Gaddafi  beaten to death by a mob, Bashar Assad  has dug in in Damascus and there is no sign of him giving up as the west is betting on . Better still for him,  his Russian supporters  have given him about 300  anti aircraft equipment in case of any creation of a no fly zone like the one that crippled Gaddafi’s well armed forces . So,   it is not always the case that nations fall like dominoes in the face of insurgency as happened in N Africa two years. In fighting insurgency  to a stand still and still retaining the loyalty of his army in the wake of international isolation, somehow the blood letting leader in Damascus   has my  grudging admiration. Perhaps the Russians have seen something opaque to the rest of us in siding with the son of an old ally Haffez Assad. Time, surely, will tell.

  • The politics of security, change and culture

    In China recently the authorities organized earthquake drills to educate citizens on how to react to real earth quakes and escape or save lives in what is a dangerous natural disaster that has claimed many lives and property and is more common in that part of the world than others. In the UK a great debate ensued in Parliament recently on the gay rights Marriage bill that polarized the Conservative party, the senior partner in the ruling coalition just as two men shouting religious slogan killed a British soldier in Woolwich in a terrorist act that saw the PM cutting short an official trip to denounce the terrorist act while stressing that Britain will never succumb to terror or terrorism. In Kenya the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission -TJRC – which investigated various political crimes and assassinations in Kenya from independence till the 2007 post election violence, found the newly elected President and Vice President in the March 2013 elections culpable, but did not recommend sanctions as the two leaders have similar charges pending against them on the matter at the International Criminal Court at the Hague. In Nigeria the newspapers were replete with pictures of the Chief Priest of a cult whose members killed over 20 men recently with the Chief Priest asserting that his god protected him against the policemen who he said had been given orders to bring him to the state capital dead or alive, but got killed instead as they were drunk on their way to destroy him.

    From preparing against a natural disaster, to making laws that change the face and nature of marriage, to having financiers and executors of thuggery and violence in positions of power in a democratic dispensation or allowing a security risk to market the prowess of his clan god or deity on a national and global scene, the contention I am making today is that a cultural and religious sea change is abroad in the world as we know it today and this has great and far reaching import for the peace and security of the world as we know for now.

    Let me start on a happy note even though the issue is a natural tragedy like an earthquake but it is its planned management and the foresight involved, that creates a good lesson on crisis management. The new Chinese leadership in China has identified corruptionas a target for zero tolerance and elimination in China under its new mandate. But natural disasters have no calling cards and do not give notice of appearance. China’s earthquake drill is therefore a pragmatic and innovative effort to protect lives and give people courage when such disasters happen so that people, as far as is possible under the circumstances, know what to do to keep alive or even to save lives in the process. Coincidentally a recent survey on the global perception or sovereign reputation of key nations of the world put Germany as No 1 dethroning Japan which obviously lost its enviable position because of the way it handled it nuclear plant radiation explosion in recent times . It is instructive that Germany closed its own nuclear plants after the Japanese nuclear disaster at great economic costs but in deference to German public opinion. Iran was rated the worst nation in terms of global perception not unlikely because of its quest for nuclear power on the pretence of getting electricity for which it is facing UN sanctions. In addition Iran has been reluctant to ask for expert aid during outbreak of natural disasters in which it has had more than its fair share in recent times.

    My fascination with the Chinese Earthquake drill stems from the socio economic and cultural problems of armed robbery and now terrorism facing some nations especially Nigeria. People flee here at the sight of armed robbers whereas if drills can be organized the robbers would know that people in the environment have some knowledge and information on how to react to them rather than just fear and that they can thwart their criminal activity successfully. This itself can be a formidable deterrence against the current high incidence of armed robbery or rampant terrorism or even kidnapping. In the Woolwich terror killing in the UK, a lady reportedly boldly told the terrorist who was saying that terrorists would wage war on London that they will fail and the lady even asked him to turn in the bloodied knife he was wielding after killing the British soldier. Really I think drills and mass orientation campaigns to resist armed robbers and terrorists will go a long way in reducing their menace and in making our environment safer than hitherto.

    On the gay marriage bill debate in London, my view is that the world is turning upside down in that part of the world and a culture shock is afloat. But the government seems hell bent on getting the bill through with the active support of the leadership of even the opposition labor party. Which really is to be expected as leftist parties have such inclinations towards gay rights and marriage just as the Democratic party of President Obama is trying to bulldoze its way through in Congress and the US Supreme Court. This is in spite of the fact that the public is getting annoyed at the redefinition of marriage by a go British government that got to power in a hung parliament and does not have a mandate for the policy it is rushing through in the UK. Indeed those opposed to the great gay marriage drive have complained that no party in Britain put this in its manifesto in the last elections and it is unfair to create such a cultural and religious change without the requisite democratic mandate. This is also unlike the situation in France where the socialists made it clear in their campaign manifesto and are fulfilling their promise although most French citizens have now woken up from their slumber and are now frowning at the development.

    The situation in Kenya however is a clear case of locking the stables doors after the horses have bolted. The two leaders indicted in the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Committee Report are now the newly elected and sworn in President and Vice President of Kenya even though they were on different sides when they commited the post election violence five years ago. Now, who in Kenya will bell the cat for their prosecution? Also given their new alliance and their running successfully on the presidential ticket in Kenya, who can say that violence and thuggery do not pay, at least in the politics of Kenya? Even though the 2013 Kenyan Presidential elections were said to be free and fair there is something suspect in a legitimacy or authority gained in an atmosphere of violence as choice is a prerequisite for true democratic power and legitimacy. This surely is sorely lacking in Kenya’s two leading politicians for now given the TJRC Report just published in Kenya.

    Lastly the picture of the aged Chief Priest of the Ombatse Cult Alla Agu was on the front pages of some newspapers this week as he reportedly spoke through an interpreter when a senator from the area visited him with some pressmen in Lakyo, Nasarawa state this week. Obviously the man whose cult members reportedly killed 20 policemen had no regrets on the incident. Instead he seized the opportunity to glorify the god of his sect. Reportedly he said ‘It is the governor that asked the police officers to come here and arrest me, cut my head and take my head to him. When they came because they were themselves drunk, my god did not allow them to come to me and they died on the way.’ As reported, the Ombatse Chief Priest spoke in the presence of Senator Solomon Ewuga of the Federal Republic of Nigeria during a visit to him in his Lakyo community. Really, I wonder what the Inspector General of Police will make of this, given the high death toll of the Police in the hands of the Ombatse cult members as reported by the governor of the state. To me it is unbelievable that a man like the Ombatse chief priest is not yet in police custody at least for his own protection not to talk of the image of the police in providing security for all Nigerians including policemen. In addition, the interview has helped in marketing unwittingly the ‘protective capabilities’ of the Ombatse Cult god and this is bound to open lucrative opportunities for the cult with people looking for protection from all sorts of attacks and assaults on both sides of the law in our society. I find it thoroughly amazing that the police have not been able to find their way to Lakyo to see the Chief Priest at least to take a statement on what happened. Surely that speaks volumes on the security of all of us who greatly sympathise with the police on the loss of so many men in the incredible case involving the Ombatse Cult of Lakyo in Nasarawa state in Nigeria.

  • The price and psychology of terrorism and survival

    The price and psychology of terrorism and survival

    The  man on record as saying –  give me a place to stand and  I will shake the world – is probably making a plea which may be mistaken  for a bit of hysteria, but  is still  at best , a mere request. However the  man interested in overturning the status quo  by all means in other to press home his point is a different kettle  of fish. This  is the  insurgent    or  terrorist  who is a man of violence and force,  who  regards death and mayhem as the hall mark of his world view and is not making a plea  by any stretch of the imagination to anybody,  except  to force his view point  down the throat  of all stakeholders  in his environment.  In   sharp contrast    however, the  man fighting for survival  values life  and prays or dialogues  with a view of a better tomorrow. Such a man is different  again from the suicide bomber who is ready to die now for what he  believes he or she has been denied prior to his killing himself,  and taking  all in the vicinity to his perceived world beyond, or  his mortal destination. Indeed,    the man fighting for survival  and even  the rabidly violent insurgent   must keep  away  and keep doing so from the vicinity of the suicide bomber who does not believe in any tomorrow,   finally   and  anymore.

    Such is the scenario I am creating today in view of the latest news  this week in Nigeria on which I admit to a touch of ambivalence, and  on the  global  scene at large this week. The first is the Boko Haram video on global news showing that the terrorist organization has kidnapped children and women and is ready to  get ransom on them   or use them as bargaining chips for the release of  its members in government custody. The  second is the presidential declaration of state of emergency  in three states namely Borno, Adamawa  and Yobe  which have been scenes  and states in which the Boko  Haram   have had a field day in laying siege most violently and with impunity, on the territorial integrity of the Nigerian state in recent times.

    In  the world at large, from Liberia where the head of the presidential body guard threatened to come with guns after journalists critical of government, to Turkey’s Prime Minister’s   frantic  visit to the  US on the Syrian crisis, to  the election of Nawaz Sharif as the new Prime Minister in a volatile Islamic   democracy    like Pakistan;  the issues involved revolve around survival, insurgency, terrorism and   the grim but dangerous battle to keep the ship of state on course  by all means, as is now the main preoccupation of the embattled Nigerian government and president.

    Let  me go back to the earlier categorizations I   made  and stress that the ‘man’  inherent in my assertions  and definitions of the characters so identified namely terrorist, insurgent, survivalists and suicide bombers can refer to  the opposite sex, institutions , states  and governments.  Starting with Liberia therefore it would appear that the presidential body guard boss spoke the mind of his boss, the president of Liberia because for days there was no recant or repudiation of his assertion from the presidency. He was reported to have told journalists that they are terrorists and that   though   they have their pens the security people have their  guns and that they would come after journalists if they write anything that threatens the territorial integrity of Liberia. In protest, the Liberian media published blank front pages and sought audience with the Liberian president to no avail. Eventually the security boss issued a recant and said the media and security forces are indeed partners in progress in protecting the territorial integrity of Liberia but the damage had been done   and this is clear to deduce. This is because in keeping silent, the Liberian president unwittingly endorsed his aide’s undisguised and hostile warning to the press. That studied silence in a reverse situation between the state or presidency and the press can be sufficient for a security coup on which there could be a black out from the press. In tacitly approving an undemocratic gesture  by the security chief President Sirleaf  exposed herself to a   future  or imminent security risk on which she may cry wolf later  to survive,   without  being taken seriously  by the press  she has treated  with contempt and disdain through her trigger happy,  gun totting security chief this last week. In threatening the press to survive albeit through her security chief, therefore, the Liberian president has unwittingly shot herself in the leg in terms of her future security and survival in the performance  of her duty as president of Liberia.

    The Turkish  PM Erdogan’s visit to President Barak Obama in the US   was indeed a journey  for help to survive in dangerous waters  that relations between Turkey  and Syria, Turkey’s  northern neighbor have become in recent times. On a personal level, the relations between the two leaders can be likened to that between a suicide bomber and a survivalist. Really, Syria’s leader, Bashar  Assad knows he is sinking in terms of rejection by his people  and he is ready to bring down the house , this time the  entire region in which Turkey is the real leader,  down with him. Latest reports indicate that Assad’s forces are using chemical weapons and are bombing targets inside Turkey thus drawing Turkey into a war with Syria. But the Turkish  PM has done so well for his nation  economically  and has won back to back three terms in elections and knows that war with Syria is unpopular with his countrymen. Also, in getting popular and getting more powerful Erdogan has been able to cage the army in Turkey and historically the army is the guardian of Turkey’s secular democracy which  has taken a hiding   from Erdogan’s electoral successes .  Erdogan’s problem is that his party is Islamist  and Turks are wary that he is violating the nation’s founder’s laid down principle that the army , which Erdogan has boxed into a corner by trying its  leaders  for previous military coups, is the official  guardian of Turkey’s  secular  democracy. That  was what Kemal Ataturk the founder  of modern Turkey handed down as the governing principle in Turkey.  In  effect  then,  the army is watching Erdogan in his cat and mouse survival game with the suicidal Assad of Syria and waiting to cash in, once there is any insurgency against the Turkish PM for his foray into Syria to support the Syrian  rebels and for which he  has gone to Washington to  seek protection as a dutiful  and committed democratic  and still  secular leader of Turkey.

    The story of the re-election of former Pakistani  PM  Nawaz  Sharif  is a story of political survival in a difficult environment where religion and politics are the key catalysts for political power, control  and   participation. Pakistan must be the only nation in the world where religious insurgents threaten democracy but are still not able to succeed in deterring Pakistanis from performing their civic duties of voting for their leaders of choice. Nawaz Sharif had alternated power as it were,  as PM with the late Benazir Bhutto, in between coups that had sent either packing one time or the other.   The present scenario was even more interesting and symbolic in that former military ruler Parvez Musharaff who sent Sharif packing in a coup before, was around to contest the election but was denied participation in the electoral process  by the judiciary . Interestingly during Musharaff’s military rule he invited the late Benazir Bhutto from exile to contest elections but did not invite Sharif who nevertheless came in a much publicized flight   from Britain, only for his flight to be diverted to Medina in Saudi Arabia after     Sharif had risked his life for the journey.   Ironically,   Nawaz has survived the exile to be PM of   Pakistan today, while the man who denied him entry into Pakistan then,   former General Parvez Musharaff is facing charges for not providing sufficient security for Benazir Bhutto who was assassinated while campaigning in the election for which Nawaz was then denied entry into Pakistan. Also, most intriguing in Pakistan is that the present president, the late Benazir Bhutto’s husband knows that under Nawaz Sharif, whose party has sufficient majority to rule alone, his time in office is up or at best in great jeopardy,  as  president of Pakistan. This  is because  it was under the  previous premier ship of the new PM that the  president  was jailed for money laundering;  a charge that the highest   court  in Pakistan has ordered should be executed by successive PMs  of Pakistan who  were members of his party, which has now lost power to Nawaz Sharif’s party,  which is a very volatile development indeed.

    On  Nigeria, let me round up  by commending the Nigerian president and government on the state  of emergency  declared  in three states in the North East namely  Adamawa , Borno  and Yobe . For three reasons I say the commendation is well deserved. The first is that the president no matter how belated has shown that he is  now  in charge,  as nature abhors a vacuum in fighting anything,  including insurgency  and terrorism. The second is that that the wolves in sheep clothing, which he admitted are around him, now know that the battle line is drawn and that they either play ball and support him or leave office before it is too late. The third is that by involving the army the president has given the institution a great   opportunity to prove its mettle as well as assert and display its loyalty and commitment to the Nigerian state and its fledgling democracy. Given  the dire circumstances we have found ourselves through earlier vacillations and dithering in dealing with terrorists, insurgents  and  now  police- killing  cultists,  the state of emergency is like a breath of fresh air and  vibrant  leadership,  unlike the earlier putrid verbiage and vocabulary  of negotiations   with,  and  amnesty  for  merciless insurgents and unrepentant terrorists. Taking the bull by the horn  always seemed a strange strategy for this presidency in confronting those who threaten our nation’s territorial integrity and security with impunity till now One  therefore   hopes and prays that now that the cat is at home mice and terrorists  would flee in whatever direction they  wished, and allow  peace to reign in our fatherland henceforth –   with our president fully  and firmly  in  the saddle in  pursuing  their imminent rout and defeat. Amen