Category: Emmanuel Oladesu

Nigerians have chosen wisely. A democrat and statesman has been elected to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari on May 29. It is a turning point in national history; the beginning of a new dawn.

Power, which is never served a la carte, did not land on Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu‘s palm on a platter of gold.

The election has been won and lost. For now, two things are very important. The first is the lesson of the titanic struggle for power and how the President-elect triumphed over many obstacles to breast the tape. The second is the soaring public expectation from a tested and trusted progressive leader who will be assuming political control at a most challenging time.

Tinubu’s victory underscores the audacity of hope and power of courage. He was focused. He planned well and teamed up with the right people across the six geo-political zones to realise his life-long ambition for higher service to his fatherland.

At Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, he said it was important that the kingmaker should also become king to avoid being a footnote of history that will be derided by this and future generations.

Although he was the best among the aspirants ahead of the primaries, and he had the best blueprint, he had to cross many hurdles.

In eight years, the pact on zoning was almost forgotten. The labours of the past, particularly the spade work that led to the fusion of like-minded parties, groups and individuals that gave birth to the All Progressives Congress (APC) were almost ignored. Those who hailed Tinubu’s pivotal roles at the beginning, including close associates he had mentored, ironically, turned against him.

Politics is characterised by competition, strife and antagonism. The real war started after the former Lagos State governor stormed Aso Villa to declare his ambition to President Buhari. But, he was unstoppable. Deserted by some associates, he quickly put the betrayal behind him and made more friends across the country. Many perceived his bid in a positive light; a payback time for a colossus who has groomed countless loyalists for leadership, built vast networks and spread tentacles of cooperation with progressive forces nationwide.

While other APC contenders who appeared before the John Odigie-Oyegun Committee said they would step down for a consensus candidate, Tinubu canvassed the beauty of a democratic, transparent and credible primary.

Many aspirants crashed before the shadow poll. Others later mounted the podium during the ‘Manifesto Night’ to step down for their National Leader. In a free and fair primary, Tinubu became the candidate.

After the primary came the second phase of the war. Attention focused on Tinubu more than Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), whose party was crashing; Peter Obi, a PDP defector who ran on the borrowed platform of Labour Party (LP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso, the strongman of Kano politics in post-Rimi era and candidate of the little known New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP). The choice of choosing a running mate was challenging. In a divided country, some people mounted pressure on Tinubu to make a mistake of picking a Christian from the Muslim-dominated North. But, the former governor, a realist with a deep knowledge about Nigeria, strategically chose a Muslim; a cerebral, loyal Kanuri and man of integrity from the Northeast. Self-acclaimed Christian leaders, who sought to exploit religion as a tool of divisive politics and destabilisation, cried foul against what they described as a ‘Muslim-Muslim’ gang. Lies were fabricated that Tinubu would Islamise Nigeria.

His response was logical and reassuring. He said if he, as a Muslim, could not Islamise his nuclear family where his beloved wife, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, is a Christian priest, the allegation of planning the Islamisation of the country was a figment of some people’s hyperactive imagination.

The third stage of the conflict was the electioneering campaign. Social media crooks set to work, to malign and damage reputation through malicious lies, fabrication and propaganda. No candidate endured unwarranted insults more than Tinubu, who had prepared for the worst embarrassment.

He was portrayed as being unfit for the job, terminally ill, and lacking the strength to withstand the rigour of the highest office. Derisive videos were made of him and taunting songs were composed about him to give the wrong impression that the APC candidate was unfit. Some manipulated social media portrayals conveyed the impression of a man who cannot stand alone for five minutes; someone who could not walk without being assisted; an old man of over 80 years whose first daughter is over 60 years. The mischief makers were all over town with crude jests and blatant mockery. They depicted the image of a corrupt person, although he was never indicted by any court.

The detractors knew that Tinubu would win. Therefore, they mounted numerous roadblocks. The hurdles motivated the APC team to work harder. Tinubu campaigned more than his rivals across the nooks and crannies of the country. He held more town hall and other important meet ings. There was no fatigue and diminishing strength, unlike what was noticeable among his rivals who looked gaunt and languorous by the telltales of hectic campaign engagements. While they displayed emaciated physique and croaky voices, Asiwaju appeared to have put on more weight and gained more strength with every electioneering outing. The dancing and the tireless voice clearly showed a different man from what the propagandists had portrayed to the gullible.

Also, pro-zoning APC governors were on the same page with the standard bearer, unlike their PDP colleagues who were locked in protracted rift with Atiku and the PDP National Chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu. While Tinubu enjoyed the active support of vocal, determined, committed, principled and resilient APC governors, G5 distanced itself from the main opposition party while LP state chairmen ditched Obi on the eve of the poll.

At Abeokuta again, Tinubu took his case to Nigerians. He was able to convince many that he had no hand in the protracted fuel scarcity and Naira crunch, which had imposed hardship on them. Rather, he explained that the ill-timed policy was meant to incite them against him on poll day.

As the twin challenges of fuel scarcity and Naira crunch bit harder, unscrupulous elements started pushing for election postponement and an interim government.

The coast was clear on February 25. Bubbling with confidence and optimism, Tinubu predicted victory for himself in the spirit of Emilokan, and through the grace of God and the will of majority of Nigerians, he made history. It underscored the power of positive thinking.

Knowing that one year of the Tinubu presidency would dwarf his eight years in office, veteran letter writer, former President and grand patron of “Obidients”, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, who supervised the flawed poll of 2007 which the beneficiary, President Umaru Yar’Adua, even decried, hurriedly dispatched a dubious letter that was apparently meant to incite Nigerians against the outcome of a credible poll. He improved on his record of bitterness against Yoruba icons, the late sage, Obafemi Awolowo, the best material not fit for president, and Moshood Abiola, the messiah Nigeria did not deserve.

Ask the ‘Glo’ man about his experience. The power that be ran him out of town. Let Gen. Olufemi Olutoye, now an oba, relate his premature retirement. What about Osoba’s ordeal and travails of his colleague-governors  in 2003 poll?; a fallout of the political earthquake that swept across Southwest?

However, that the kingmaker has become king is not the end of the matter. Much needs to be accomplished for Nigeria by Tinubu, a democrat, bridge builder and visionary. The voting spread he achieved on February 25 is the baseline for renewal of fidelity to national unity. It is gratifying that he has waved the olive branch and promised a government of national unity. This makes him the real unifier.

The economy is on crutches. It is now Tinubu’s headache. Graduate unemployment, insecurity and epileptic power supply are among Nigeria’s major challenges. It is noteworthy that the President-elect has acknowledged that if electricity is fully resolved, the nation’s problems would be half-solved and all would start to be well.

The greatest task is the resolution of the national question through restructuring. Nigeria also expects reforms across the various sectors.

Predictably, the President-elect will set up a cabinet of talents; an inclusive, goal-oriented, accountable, and responsible administration.

Tinubu said his victory would make him the party leader. APC needs to be reorganised. Vital organs, including the National Caucus, should be reactivated. The Board of Trustees (BoT) should be restored. Outstanding conflicts in some state chapters should be resolved very urgently. It is not too late to think about the restoration of ideological politics. Without an ideology, a political party is either empty or incomplete.

In another four years, the incoming administration will be assessed. Nigeria will not remain the same.

ALL eyes are on Nigeria as the electorate goes to the polls today. The die is cast. Four major political parties – the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) – are slugging it out to occupy the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja.

The candidates of the four parties – Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Mr. Peter Obi and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso – are the main contenders.

Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, is contesting for the first time, like Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, who has traversed the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the PDP before finally pitching his tent with the LP.

Unlike Obi and the other major contenders, Asiwaju Tinubu has never left the progressives’ front since he joined politics. From the Action for Democracy (AD), the platform that brought him to office in 1999, he has been expanding the same progressives’ front with every alliance he led. His efforts with those of other frontline progressives birthed the Action Congress (AC) and enlarged into the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) until the erection of today’s APC, which has extensive political structures across the country and beyond.  

Atiku has contested four times. In the Third Republic, he was an aspirant. In 2007, he ran on the platform of defunct ACN. Later, he retraced his steps to the PDP. Much later, he joined APC and later returned to PDP.

Kwankwaso has tried his luck once at the APC primary. He had, at various times been a member of defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the aborted Third Republic; later, he joined the PDP before joining the NNPP, his current platform.

Fourteen other candidates are running on various platforms of mushroom parties that could be said to be warming the register of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). They will lose their deposits and crash long before the more formidable “Big Four”.

Historically, Nigeria could be described as a two-party state. The strength of the parties and the patterns of alliances have shown that only two parties or coalition of parties usually competes for the presidency.

It is not clear if the LP will become the third force with the youthful bravado of “Obidients” on the social media, especially.

Today’s poll is crucial in the march of democracy. It is the seventh presidential poll since 1999. Campaigns have been hectic, tasking, time-consuming, energy-sapping and financially involving. The electioneering has been too elastic, beginning from prepara tions for primaries to the end of campaigns. Candidates have laid their blueprints before Nigerians, scrambling for endorsement. They even went abroad to campaign, although there is no room for Diaspora voting. The candidates are now on the weighing scale. Nigerians will give their verdict before the close of the day.

The parties and their candidates largely conducted campaigns that were devoid of violence. The culture of verbal attacks was sustained. But, character assassination was not rampant, except on the social media because it is not regulated. Some candidates conducted issue-based campaigns. Some are on the ballot for relevance.

The fear of postponement fizzled out during the week as INEC began the distribution of sensitive materials. The National Security Adviser (NSA), General Mohammed Babagana Monguno, also doused tension by assuring that the polls will hold.

Nigeria remains a funny country where schools have to suspend academic activities, markets have to close and movements have to be restricted because of elections. The practice has not shown Africa’s most populous nation as demonstrating sufficient political maturity.

The last few weeks have been remarkable due to the hardship caused by fuel scarcity and naira crunch. When fuel scarcity gave way, Nigerians still lacked access to the cash to buy petrol. The impact of the pain and anguish may be felt during the elections.

There are many things to watch out for. More than the previous elections, more Nigerians registered to vote this year. Yet, many also did not collect their permanent voter’s cards (PVCs). More youths registered than before. But only a few clearly know why they will vote. It is not unexpected that many youths will vote through peer pressure or companionship; others will cast their ballots for sentiment, religious, and ethnic reasons.

Voting wisely is important. It implies voting in anticipation of solutions to unresolved problems – economy, insecurity, power supply, and unemployment.

Will zoning play a role in the presidential poll? The outcome will tell. In the race are two Northerners and two Southerners: one from the Northwest, another from the Northeast; one from the Southwest, and another from the Southeast.

President Muhammadu Buhari, while supporting his party and its presidential candidate has, nonetheless, assured the nation of his commitment to credible and transparent polls  This is in keeping with his profile as a man of integrity.

Threats to peaceful electioneering appeared to have manifested in the Southeast. The killings up to two days ago by unknown gunmen were worrisome.

This year’s presidential election is a departure from the previous ones. There is no retired soldier on the ballot although it appears retired officers are trying to regroup to exert some influence. The reality is that their influence is declining and fading.

Today, global attention is focusing on Nigeria. Over 200 monitors and observers have arrived to witness the exercise. They include groups sent by the African Union (AU), ECOWAS and the Commonwealth.

Electronic voting is still a tall order, despite the use of BVAS and electronic transmission of results.

Much is expected of the electoral agency, led by Prof. Mahmood Yakubu. He is not lacking in experience. But there are more hurdles for him and the commission to contend with. If the previous elections, which he conducted with progressive improvement, could be used as a yardstick, the world might expect a good outing with some human and technical errors. But, like in the previous polls, this year’s might throw up some complaints but not fundamental issues that might warrant a big damage to the outcome.

An election is a joint responsibility involving all stakeholders. But the onus is on INEC, the pilot of the elections, to live up to expectations.

Having recruited and trained its employees and ad hoc workers, the electoral umpire should still be up and doing. It should report for the electoral duty promptly.

Late arrival of personnel and materials may provide anxiety and tension. Also, INEC workers are expected to be neutral. The BVAS should not be faulty. They should not aid and abet electoral crimes.

Voters should also be patriotic. They should come out to vote according to their conscience. They should turn up on time and obey all electoral guidelines and regulations. There should be no campaigns at polling units; they have ended two days ago.

Voters should shun unruly behaviours and cooperate fully with electoral officers. They should vote in a way that will make their votes count and not voided.

There is also no gain in over-voting. It can only lead to cancellation that will reduce the number of valid votes and cause the affected candidates a loss in the figures for their election.

Also, voters and electoral workers need to shun electoral fraud today. It has grave consequences. The law forbidding malpractices is in force. Culprits will face the “electoral tribunal”. This is avoidable, if everybody would play the game according to its rules.

In some cases, electoral battles often shift from the ballot box to the court. Will this year’s poll be different?

At 80, he bade farewell, having lived a honourable life and made positive impact on his country. He will be remembered for his legacies, not only as a military officer and administrator, but also as a pro-democracy crusader.

Air Commodore Dan Suleiman left behind a country that is immersed in self-inflicted crises; a unitary nation-state masquerading as a federal entity; the sixth largest oil producer in the world that cannot supply fuel to its citizens for domestic consumption; a nation wriggling in a cash-strapped economy; a country with a huge population of unemployed youths; a country with a long line of decayed infrastructure; and a colonial legacy battling with lingering identity, wealth distribution crisis and leadership ineptitude.

Throughout his earthly sojourn, Suleiman was not off the radar. When he enlisted in the military, he was bubbling with patriotism. The focus of the military then was the defence of the nation’s territorial integrity. But the soldiers derailed in a bid to correct what they alleged to be the mistakes of legitimate civil authorities and act as rectifiers.

The Nigerian military, having tasted power, never wanted to return to its full traditional responsibilities. In the process, they ended up committing more grievous errors than the civilian authorities had made to justify the military interventions in politics.

Suleiman’s involvement in the heroic battle against the elongation of military rule could as well be described as restitution. It was ironic because he could not be absolved of the blame for the military’s illegitimate rule that spanned 13 years before the advent of the Second Republic.

As a military officer, he was part of an institution that foisted itself on the people. The sins of the military rulers were many. They transformed Nigeria from a federal to a unitary state. They presided over governments that were not accountable to the citizens. They rammed their wishes down the throats of Nigerians. With their coups and counter-coups, they exacerbated the instability the political class had created across the country.

It could, therefore, be largely said that the greatest obstacle to the growth of democracy in Nigeria was the military. The words of the unelected military rulers become the law that was not debatable at any forum, except in hushed tones.

Perhaps, Suleiman could be said to have become sober in his blissful retirement. Latter-day military adventurists had, during the years of their military career, become reckless, pillaging public treasury and conducting national affairs as lords of the manor.

They ingratiated themselves with some political players, banning and unbanning some classes of politicians, and maintaining a commitment towards transition programmes they deliberately designed to fail. Under the latter-day soldiers of fortune, the state became the greatest corrupter of society.

Yet, the solution, lied in democracy, which the military tyrants were, nevertheless, expected to midwife.

When their hypocritical transition programme collapsed on their heads, some elderly soldiers came out of their shell to join forces with genuine democrats to demand military disengagement and return to civil rule. They were eager to rescue the military from self-inflicted maladies.

If the crop of politicians misbehaving today knew the input into the pro-democracy struggle, and the loss of lives and property that character the protracted face-off, they will govern well. Unfortunately,  majority of those who occupied the seat of power after the titanic struggle were military lackeys and confederates.

Embracing the new call to duty by Suleiman meant that he had voluntarily rejected the comfort zone. He joined pro-democracy fighters, like his former colleagues – Gen. Alani Akinrinade and Air Marshall Ndubuisi Kanu – to press for democratic governance, enthronement of popular rule and justice.

The struggle was stressful. But his professional training prepared him for the rigours.

Sulaiman was a gentleman officer who rose through the ranks in the Nigerian Air Force. Under General Yakubu Gowon, he served as Federal Commissioner for Special Duties and played a prominent role in the establishment of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

The Air Force officer was a member of the Supreme Military Council (SMC) under the leadership of the late General Murtala Mohammed. Before serving as military governor of Plateau State, he also served briefly as Federal Commissioner for Health.

As governor,  Suleiman had proposed a closure to the tension between indigenes and settlers when he upheld the political rights of all residents without discrimination. It was in a bid to forge national integration, cohesion and unity in a heterogeneous state.

He was responsible for the progressive proposal that anyone born in Plateau State or anyone who had lived in the state for 20 years should enjoy all the rights and privileges of a native, regardless of their ethnic origin.

Plateau may have demonstrated that noble example of oneness by appointing a woman from old Oyo State, Mrs. Janet Akinrinade, as commissioner.

In the 1980s, the wave of democracy began to spread across Africa. Scholars, civil society groups and the international community started mounting pressure on Nigeria to return to democratic governance.

But, Nigerian military rulers turned a deaf ear. They continued to suppress voices of dissent. They never contemplated an orderly transfer of authority because, in their view, it amounted to the liquidation of self-acquired power. They relied, not on legitimacy, but on the barrel of gun to intimidate and cow political leaders and other critics.

The annulment of the historic June 12, 1993 poll won by the late Chief Moshood Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was the last straw that broke the back of the camel.

The refusal of the military regime to de-annul the result of the historic poll tossed Nigerians into a nightmare. Having stepped aside, the Evil Genius, General Ibrahim Babangida, passed the baton to an interim contraption headed by Chief Ernest Shonekan, who was simply shoved aside by the maximum ruler, General Sani Abacha.

Abacha believed it was his turn to rule and there should be no resistance. He never feared the ‘civilian’ leaders of the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO). His headache was the involvement of his senior military colleagues in the Senator Abraham Adesanya-led chain groups – Afenifere/NADECO. He was ready to bomb, kill and maim. He brooked no opposition.

Thus, Akinrinde’s residence was bombed for daring to challenge the military Head of State. Then, Abacha sent words to Admiral Kanu to come and face him in uniform for a raw fight, with gun, like a soldier that he was. Suleiman and Akinrinade had to go on exile to continue the crusade when their lives were clearly threatened by agents of the state.

In his tribute, one of his compatriots during the dark days, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, described Suleiman as a prominent NADECO chieftain who fought the annulment of the June 12 poll.

It is an understatement. Abandoning a blissful retirement and joining forces for a hectic battle against the military government was more than a sacrifice. It underscored an audacity of courage and commitment to a strong principle.

The repercussions also came. He never planned for it. Suleiman endured the inconveniences. In his book: The Open Grave: NADECO and The Struggle for Democracy, Honourable Olawale Oshun wrote: “The harassment of General Alani Akinrinade, Air Commodore Dan Suleiman and Senator Bola Tinubu made it imperative that they should proceed on exile.

“Akinrinade and Suleiman slipped out of Nigeria together and spent a few days in a safe house in Cotonou before they were joined by Senator Bola Tinubu. They eventually moved to the United Kingdom.”

Suleiman became the chairman of NADECO abroad, having been vice chairman of its Steering Committee in Nigeria. Typical of any human organisation, disagreement ensued over structural composition. The lingering crisis led to his resignation. When it was resolved, he agreed to serve as vice chairman under the leadership of the late Chief Anthony Enahoro.

Following the sudden death of General Sani Abacha in June 1998, Suleiman returned to Nigeria on October 7, 1998, and became a part of the democratic process. He was among the frontline members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the party’s early days, rising to become its leader in Adamawa State. He was head of the party’s electoral panel in Delta State during its primaries in 2003.

The Olusegun Obasanjo administration made him the Nigerian Ambassador to the Russian Federation in 2006 and under President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, Air Commodore Suleiman was appointed the Chairman of Rubber Research Institute of Nigeria in 2009.

The retired military officer was always a guest at many events where national issues were dissected for the purpose of unity and cohesion. He lived for country and especially for democratic norms in the twilight of his eventful life.

NIGERIA is in a fix. Over 200 million people are held captive by the apex bank headed by a self-acclaimed superman, ‘most intelligent banker in the world’ and politician in disguise, whose policy on currency redesign has unleashed a monumental disaster on innocent bank customers and other Nigerians.

Two objectives were disclosed by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Godwin Emefiele. The first was to compel Nigerians to embrace a cashless policy. The second was to mop up illicit naira notes allegedly hidden in the homes and vaults of politicians who are likely to monetise the February 25 and March 11 elections.

As if Nigeria was still under a military regime, public complaints seem not to matter. It appears there is no going back on the journey to national doom, even if all commercial activities remained paralysed, and Nigerians felt nostalgic about the use of cowries in the commercial transactions of old.

On Thursday, the Finance Minister, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, who had earlier claimed that she was not carried along by the CBN governor, appealed to Nigerians to endure the hardship.

Thousands of Nigerians queue daily at Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs) to get the few amounts they had deposited with the banks. They use the small cash they could lay hands on to queue at filling stations for fuel to get their vehicles moving and their generators running to provide power supply. In the national melee, the highly inefficient power distribution companies (DisCos) have remained largely epileptic. Ahead of the polls, distraught Nigerians are reminded to collect their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) – for those who have not done so – from the offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) within the few days to the deadline the electoral empire has specified. Nigerians also have to queue for these PVCs ahead of voting for their preferred candidates.

Today’s Nigerians have been put under undue pressure from all areas they ought to enjoy peace and quiet.

It thus appears that there is a hidden agenda in the new currency design, among other issues, judging by the timing of the policy. The change of the three highest denominations of the notes coincides with the electioneering.

There are speculations that a dangerous plot was being hatched to incite Nigerians against the best presidential candidate in the race to Aso Villa. Social media miscreants have allegedly been mobilised to heap the blame for the calculated misery on the target. The conspiracy against the Jagaban is the last hurdle to cross before the February 25 poll that will lead to victory.

But the plot has collapsed. Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has told Nigerians that the APC as a political family had no hand in the policy.

The risk of social unrest is high. Protesters in Lagos and other cities have turned the heat on the CBN governor. The suffering should not be allowed to escalate. The memory of the October 20, 2020 #EndSARS protest that was hijacked by hoodlums is still fresh.

Public pressure has now forced Emefiele to issue a directive that N20,000 could be obtained across the counter in the banks. The measure is still not satisfactory to most Nigerians who agonise daily.

But, there may also be other plans to achieve the subsisting hidden agenda. Hopefully, it will also collapse.

President Muhammadu Buhari, in his second coming, inherited a country that was thirsty for change. He has tried his best in some sectors. He has achieved some improvements in the areas of security, transportation and anti-graft war.

Yet, there is still much more to be accomplished.

As the President is approaching the end of his eight-year two-term tenure, Nigerians are upset by the inexplicable fuel and cash scarcity, which are casting a dent on his score card. More worrisome is the probability of mismanaging the pressing challenges, thereby affecting the general election.

If well perused, the protracted fuel shortage is quite strange. Nigeria is the sixth largest producer of oil in the world. But the country is also an importer of petroleum products. In the last 24 years, successive administrations have failed to maintain the four refineries scattered across the country for optimal performance. Building a new one is also a tall order.

The current fuel scarcity is thus a classic kind of sabotage which has persisted despite the threats by the Department of State Services (DSS) last December to halt the trend. The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) simply ignored its 48-hour ultimatum to stop the crisis in the industry and restore normalcy.

How much oil is lifted daily by the NNPC? The figures are in the realm of conjecture. There is no reliable data on the amount supplied daily. NNPCL tendered a figure of 66 million litres, but the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) disagreed, saying it is 40 million litres.

Both institutions of government have also not provided effective solution to oil theft. According to reports, $4 billion was lost to the theft of Nigeria’s petroleum products in 2021 and $1.5 billion in 2022. The figures for this year may come in due course. Those behind bunkering are not ordinary people.

In the past, there were reports of tankers crossing the borders to other countries. Security agencies could not rise to the occasion.

At a time many oil-producing countries are maximising the benefits of gas, 75 per cent of assorted gas in Nigeria is flared; only 12 per cent is re-injected for commercial advantage.

Fuel pricing is motivated by external pull. Since Nigeria imports fuel for domestic consumption, whenever oil price goes up in the international market, it affects the price regime at home.

The loss in terms of man-hour due to scarcity is enormous. Motorists spend several hours on the queue in search of the elusive product. Transporters shift the cost to commuters. In turn, traders shift the burden to ordinary Nigerians.

The woe of the sector is exacerbated by the embarrassing fuel subsidy, which is to the advantage of few barons who desperately milk the country dry. Nearly all the top presidential candidates have indicated plans to remove it, thereby incurring the wrath of the manipulators.

As fuel becomes scarce and the cash to buy it also becomes scarcer, Nigerians are groaning in the economic cul-de-sac the insensate cabal has thrown them into.

Many experts believe that the chaos was avoidable, if the CBN had done extensive research, collated data, adopted a gradual process and considered the collateral damage to the common man.

Many rural people have now developed acute fear for modern banking. The fear is premised on what they perceive as the deliberate seizure of their hard-earned cash. After depositing their working capital in the bank and they cannot easily withdraw it for their little businesses, nasty thoughts flash across their minds.

Is it a crime to be a Nigerian? How could a set of soulless beings hold the nation by the jugular without those in authority making them to pay dearly for their criminality? Why should a national monetary policy transmogrify the nation into denizens of perdition?

Those who are yet to deposit the old notes are confused. Many of them, according to some governors, live in remote rural communities where banking is alien. 

Having been encouraged and assured before depositing their cash, they now feel that they were deceived. If someone travels from the remotest part of a state to the city to deposit his cash and he is directed to the ATM to withdraw N10,000 only, he loses confidence in the banking system.

Rural economy, indeed the informal sector, is cash-driven. The cashless policy, to many rural dwellers, is like fiction. This is associated with low level of literacy. In the interior, cashless policy is also hampered by lack of telecommunications network.

Besides, how would a trader who does not operate a bank account carry out transactions in his or her  area of residency?

According to the CBN, over N1.1 trillion has been mopped up. The cash, to the rural poor, has been trapped. Some of the rural dwellers have no money to even eat.

Although CBN has alluded to the presence of Point of Sales (POS) agents, they are few, relative to the population. Many still find it strange that the agents are entitled to certain charges to give out cash.

In the banking halls, customers express frustration and vent their anger. They demand explanations for what happens to their money. Their anger is not misplaced; it is their right to know what happens to the cash they deposited or they are about to deposit and when they can call for it and get it at their convenience. But the bankers appear forlorn themselves. They lack the psychological answers to assuage the hurt in the people’s agitated minds. Bank workers try to explain the new policy. They do not understand the depth of the situation. They often sound illogical and incoherent.

The confusion pervading the horizon may have arisen from the fact that while ATMs are not dispensing cash, the new naira notes are in high supply at social functions. Bank officials get the currency across to those who sell them to people to spray at parties. These buyers and sellers get the new notes after paying the officials.

Although CBN claims to be targeting politicians, those who bear the brunt are ordinary folks. The big men seldom carry cash about. They have their money in banks. They account for the huge volume of cashless transactions.

Vote buying and selling will be more attractive on poll day, if the agony persists. Bank workers who sell cash to people for social functions will see a more lucrative business in selling to desperate politicians.

Unlike before, more Nigerians are gradually embracing the cashless option. As time goes on, it is hoped that the policy will become the vogue.

Emefiele and President Buhari should listen to financial and monetary experts. They should allow the old and new notes to circulate together for another six months. Gradually, the CBN can collect the old notes without damage to commercial transactions and our daily existence.

Many rural people have now developed acute fear for modern banking. The fear is premised on what they perceive as the deliberate seizure of their hard-earned cash. After depositing their working capital in the bank and they cannot easily withdraw it for their little businesses, nasty thoughts flash across their minds.

Is it a crime to be a Nigerian? How could a set of soulless beings hold the nation by the jugular without those in authority making them to pay dearly for their criminality? Why should a national monetary policy transmogrify the nation into denizens of perdition?

Those who are yet to deposit the old notes are confused. Many of them, according to some governors, live in remote rural communities where banking is alien. 

Having been encouraged and assured before depositing their cash, they now feel that they were deceived. If someone travels from the remotest part of a state to the city to deposit his cash and he is directed to the ATM to withdraw N10,000 only, he loses confidence in the banking system.

Rural economy, indeed the informal sector, is cash-driven. The cashless policy, to many rural dwellers, is like fiction. This is associated with low level of literacy. In the interior, cashless policy is also hampered by lack of telecommunications network.

Besides, how would a trader who does not operate a bank account carry out transactions in his or her  area of residency?

According to the CBN, over N1.1 trillion has been mopped up. The cash, to the rural poor, has been trapped. Some of the rural dwellers have no money to even eat.

Although CBN has alluded to the presence of Point of Sales (POS) agents, they are few, relative to the population. Many still find it strange that the agents are entitled to certain charges to give out cash.

In the banking halls, customers express frustration and vent their anger. They demand explanations for what happens to their money. Their anger is not misplaced; it is their right to know what happens to the cash they deposited or they are about to deposit and when they can call for it and get it at their convenience. But the bankers appear forlorn themselves. They lack the psychological answers to assuage the hurt in the people’s agitated minds. Bank workers try to explain the new policy. They do not understand the depth of the situation. They often sound illogical and incoherent.

The confusion pervading the horizon may have arisen from the fact that while ATMs are not dispensing cash, the new naira notes are in high supply at social functions. Bank officials get the currency across to those who sell them to people to spray at parties. These buyers and sellers get the new notes after paying the officials.

Although CBN claims to be targeting politicians, those who bear the brunt are ordinary folks. The big men seldom carry cash about. They have their money in banks. They account for the huge volume of cashless transactions.

Vote buying and selling will be more attractive on poll day, if the agony persists. Bank workers who sell cash to people for social functions will see a more lucrative business in selling to desperate politicians.

Unlike before, more Nigerians are gradually embracing the cashless option. As time goes on, it is hoped that the policy will become the vogue.

Emefiele and President Buhari should listen to financial and monetary experts. They should allow the old and new notes to circulate together for another six months. Gradually, the CBN can collect the old notes without damage to commercial transactions and our daily existence.

Lagos has been a lucky state. Many other states envy the Centre of Excellence and its vast potentials. But the lesson of Lagos development is instructive: previous projections and meticulous planning have resulted in the current gains that are propelling the state into future prosperity.

Leadership is key. The state is blessed with visionary leaders who can think, innovate, generate ideas, mobilise resources, coordinate efforts and strive at development goals.

Strategically located, the former federal capital is Africa’s commercial hub, the city that never sleeps. Lagos Atlantic brings the benefit of oceanic economy in coastal corridors. It is a far cry from River Olua in Ekiti, River Ogun in the Gateway State and River Oyan in Oyo/Osun states.

A heterogeneous state, ethnic groups cohabit peacefully without discrimination based on ethno-religious and political leanings. On daily basis, people from across the federation migrate to the City of Aquatic Splendor for real and imagined greener pastures.

Many of the migrants have become settlers. Thus, future projections are affected by sudden and steady population pulls. This puts a lot of pressure on infrastructure in the metropolis.

Some of the military administrators and civilian governors that oversaw the affairs of the state made varied efforts at building the state for future standards. The late erudite journalist and frontline administrator, Alhaji Lateef Kayode Jakande (LKJ, as the late sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo, used to call him), set the pace. He came up with a metro-line and a housing scheme. But the military truncated all his plans through the 1983 coup d’état. Erstwhile Military Administrator, then Colonel Buba Marwa (now retired Brigadier-General) also tried to push the state to another level of development. 

But nobody else has given modern Lagos the type of vision Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has given the state. He had anticipated the current challenges before assuming office as governor in 1999. He girded his loins and set to work to justify the popular mandate conferred on him.

Today, the 1999 Vision of Greater Lagos is still bearing fruits. Asiwaju Tinubu met a state that was not living up to expectation. An accountant and financial surgeon, the then governor knew that the functions of government include raising and spending of money for developmental purposes. From N600 million monthly, he jacked the internally generated revenue (IGR) to billions. Little did he guess that a perilous time would come. When the hand of President Olusegun Obasanjo was heavy on Lagos, the state still survived, despite the seizure of its allocations. The financial creativity of the governor enabled the state to survive the presidential high-handedness.

Tinubu injected fresh ideas and developed a blueprint, a 24-year plan for rebuilding the critical sectors – education, health, transportation, infrastructure, environment, sports, tourism, finance, and security. He assembled a cabinet of talents; patriotic, competent and hardworking men and women who cooperated in driving the vision.

Tinubu also groomed successors for the continuity of the progressive beat. After his two terms of eight years, in which he established himself as the architect of modern Lagos, he passed the baton to his erstwhile Chief of Staff and Commissioner in the Cabinet Office, Babatunde Fashola (SAN).

After building on the solid foundation built by Tinubu, Fashola handed over to Akinwunmi Ambode, who in 2019 handed over to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Thus, in the last 24 years, either under the Alliance for Democracy (AD), Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) or All Progressives Congress (APC), Lagos has fared well under progressive platforms.

Will power shift in March? It is highly remote. The prevailing mood is that there is no vacancy in the State House, Alausa. The reasons are obvious.

In the last three and half years that Sanwo-Olu has been in the saddle, there has not been any complaint by the ruling party. The governor who has been part of government since 2003 has garnered experience and learnt from the strengths and weaknesses of his illustrious predecessors.

Sanwo-Olu has not allowed power to get to his head. As governor and custodian of the people’s mandate, he is at liberty to exercise power and authority. But, to his credit, he has not allowed power to use him, as he continues to serve with the best of his ability. The governor has a listening ear; he has been accessible and he has fostered inclusion in the ruling party and government. His traits and styles offer the best examples of simplicity and humility, and indeed, loyalty to his party, leader and the Lagos cause.

More importantly, the governor has not deviated from the Lagos City Development Plan, which Tinubu and Fashola implemented faithfully. His THEMES Agenda, premised on need analysis, had its root in the comprehensive plan, with a greater Lagos rising through its implementation.

The leadership acumen of Sanwo-Olu was tested by two challenges, which created distractions. The emergencies were not anticipated. He became the Incident Commander when the global pestilence, COVID-19, hit Lagos, which became the epic centre. The governor mobilised human and material resources to combat the disease and liberate the state from the scourge.

Read Also: ‘Sanwo-Olu invests in people through EKOEXCEL’

Lagos had not recovered when the #EndSARS protest, which went to the extreme, nearly brought the state to its knees. Caution was thrown into the wind when a legitimate demonstration against police brutality was hijacked by arsonists and area boys who were on rampage, looting and destroying public utilities.

Later, social media influencers invaded town with fake news. In a bid to dent the image of the state government, the purveyors of misinformation and propaganda alleged massive bloodletting or massacre. It was a case of bloodletting without blood and corresponding casualties, which was confounding to the panel of enquiry.

Despite these distractions and constraints, development was not stalled. Vital projects inherited by the administration were not abandoned. It was because the slogan of continuity was internalised. Lagos became a huge construction site, and Lagosians were satisfied that their vote for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was not in vain.

The projects are evenly distributed across the five divisions of Lagos, Badagry, Epe, Ikeja, and Ikorodu, and across the three senatorial districts.

The Pen Cinema Flyover was completed. It has underscored an innovative urban renewal and eased traffic in Ogba/Agege axis. So were the link roads in Lagos/Ogun boundary towns, Lekki/Oniru Road networks, Ibeju-Lekki/Epe roads that have opened up the axis, Itamaga/ Ijede Road, Ogolonto/Ipakodo Road, Mile 12/Ketu-Agboyi Road and Somolu inner roads. The latest is the ongoing Opebi/Odo Iya Alaro/Ojota Link Road. So far, no fewer than 308 inner roads have been delivered.

Apart from new classrooms springing up, Sanwo-Olu has completed 16 housing projects, including those of Alimoso, Gbagada and Ikorodu.

Health facilities are being upgraded. Lagos now has new hospitals in Badagry, Ikorodu, Igando, Eti-Osa, and Epe.

The state-owned polytechnic and colleges of education have been upgraded into universities. Tertiary tuition fees have been slashed to the advantage of indigent students. More teachers have been recruited apart from establishing new primary and secondary schools, while facilities in existing ones were upgraded. Today, over 1,000 classrooms have been constructed, teachers are being trained and through the ‘Eko Excel,’ tablets are distributed to students for learning.

The investment has yielded enormous gains. More students now pass their WAEC and NECO examinations in the state.

The BRT was conceived by Asiwaju Tinubu. It was implemented by Fashola and Sanwo-Olu is building on the legacy. What would Lagos have become without LASTMA? The roads would have been permanently crowded and Lagosians would have surrendered to traffic chaos. The BRT buses and LASTMA operations attest to the power of initiative and foresight. New buses were procured for effective operations.

Seventy five per cent of Lagos is water. Thus, the administration has invested in water transportation with jetties and ferries plying Epe, Ikorodu, Lagos, Apapa, Amuwo-Odofin, Badagry routes.

During his two-day visit to Lagos, President Muhammadu Buhari, who endorsed Sanwo-Olu for a second term, acknowledged the giant strides, urging other governors to emulate him.

During the ‘Festival of Project Inauguration,’ the Phase One of the Blue Line Rail from Marina to Mile 2 were commissioned. So were the Rice Mill at Imota in Ikorodu Division, the Lekki-Epe Expressway, and the Randle Centre for Yoruba Culture and History. Also, the deal for the second phase of the Blue Line Rail from Mile 2 to Okokomaiko was signed.

The train is expected to move more than 500,000 passengers daily when the phases are completed. Having taken the delivery of new trains from Milwaukee, United States, the Red Line system is also expected to commence soon, with each train carrying 1,500 passengers. It will run from Agbado to Oyingbo within 30 minutes.

On the 90 hectares of land lies the $1.5 billion Lekki Deep Sea Port, the biggest in the country. It is a joint partnership among private investors, Lagos State government, and the Federal Government. The project will boost the economy of Lagos and create job opportunities. Lagosians now look towards the commencement of the Fourth Mainland Bridge project, comprising three toll plazas and nine inter-changes. The 37-kilometre bridge, when completed, will be the second longest in Africa.

Government has also intensified efforts in the areas of effective refuse disposal, environmental sanitation, urban renewal, street lighting, and road maintenance.

Sanwo-Olu has presided over a peaceful state. His achievements speak for him. That is why the stakeholders, including party leaders, captains of industry, leaders of commerce, clergy and laity, traditional worshippers, market women, other women and youth groups, community development associations and various ethnic nationalities in Lagos, have endorsed him and his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, for continuity.

However, despite the feats already recorded, there is room for greater improvement.

Lagos is said to be a rich state. But it is also a city of tax evaders. How can the tax net capture these evaders, individuals and organisations?

How is the state government, or the House of Assembly, monitoring the activities and performance of the 57 councils? Are they complementing the efforts of the state government at the grassroots?

New settlements are springing up due to expansion in Badagry, Epe, and Ikorodu. Government has to extend a duty of care to them through the provision of schools, roads and health facilities.

Lagos is a mini-country. Therefore, the pressure on the amenities will continue due to the daily influx of people. This is why the state should not relent in its agitation for special status or special economic assistance.

The greatest duty of a Christian priest is to win souls for God for the purpose of inheriting His kingdom. Pastors are to admonish the congregation to seek first the kingdom of God while every other thing is to be added unto it.

Clerics are centres of influence, no doubt. Church members perceive them as role models. Since they exert enormous influence, statesmen often court them as they also seek to solidify a partnership between the church and the state for the common good of society.

Also, clerics, as citizens, have the constitutional right to seek political power. In the Bible, before the advent of kingship in Israel, prophets combined the functions of priests, administrators and judges.

But, in modern times, as they throw their hats in the ring to become effective political players, they are enjoined to brace up for the inherent challenges of the political process. Power, as it is often said, is never served a la carte. If men of God fail to develop the skills, learn the ropes, understand the constraints and exercise restraint, they can be drowned in the murky waters of politics.

Generally, politics is a combination of activities associated with seeking the power for governance. It is a contest between or among people to control the affairs of a given area, state, country, continent, or even the world, which international politics entails. The ultimate aim is the attainment of power. Yet, God is the ultimate Decider of political fate. He gives power to who He desires. Power is sweet. It is alluring. But responsible leaders hold it for the common good.

However, the political process is often characterised by stiff competition and gratuitous antagonism; sometimes, it is accompanied by ferocious struggle, uncanny strife and debilitating rancour. Politics within the religious terrain can be divisive and deceptive, thereby putting a big challenge on a shepherd presiding over congregants belonging to the ruling, the opposition and mushroom parties.

Political participation demands some level of centrist approach – from adaptation, moderation, adjustment, to application. It should not be by force. It may seem strange to a political neophyte that 24 hours is a long time in politics as final decisions are shaped by many factors. There may be no finality until the last moment. It is said that politics and morality exist in clear-cut antithetical relationship.

Many priests find these conditions very strange. In politics, they become isolates, far from the maddening peculiar realities of politicking.

That was why the recent political statement by Pastor Tunde Bakare, Overseer of the Citadel Global Community Church in Lagos, generated much controversy and debate among politicians.

The popular preacher cannot be strictly assessed now as a pastor; he has become a politician. As a political actor, he may have inadvertently turned his church into a rally group, whip ping up sentiments; may be, in a bid to influence the congregation against a presidential candidate he was not bold enough to name to enable everyone get a clearer picture.

Bakare is not known to be a coward. But he left many people guessing during his last “State of the Nation” preachment to his church members. It was unlike him.

Bakare is a very vocal lawyer with a sonorous voice, like the defunct Western Region’s Premier Samuel Akintola. He is an orator par excellence, intelligent, brave, bold, and warm. Recently, it was revealed that he is also a hardworking and successful businessman.

During the protest against poor governance organised by the “Save Nigeria Group,” he came out boldly. He joined the protest along with his humble and delectable wife and children. Many admirers hailed the amiable priest for not treading the path of prominent protesters who kept their children abroad but encouraged poor and pauperised demonstrators to face bullets of brutal policemen on the street.

But, the activist-priest and former All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential aspirant is now being criticised for jettisoning his renowned hallmark of meticulousness on the podium. He is facing some backlash for allegedly lapsing into momentary amnesia. While rejecting the term, concept or slogan of Emilokan, the eminent priest forgot that he first conveyed the impression of entitlement by saying that he would be President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor as Nigeria’s 16th president.

“I have never told you this before,” he said as he faced the worshippers and glided across the church floor in apparent ecstasy. “In the scheme of things, as far as politics of Nigeria is concerned, President Muhammadu Buhari is Number 15 and yours sincerely is Number 16.” Bakare announced this to his church with hearty certitude that elicited joyous uproar among the congregants.

No doubt, the man who prefers to be called a preacher is an influencer. But his popularity did not translate into votes at the Eagle Square in Abuja, venue of the APC presidential primary in June last year. Perhaps, the aspirant could not assess his chances realistically. He may have overrated himself, unable to distinguish between loyal church members and the assemblage of heterogeneous delegates from the nooks and crannies of the country who converged to choose the ruling party’s flag bearer. The primary, really, was an eye opener.

In politics, the management of transient setback is also important. Politicians can fall, but serious ones learn from the exposure and resolve to rise after each fall on the slippery political field. Experienced politicians often team up with the winner in the same party after a transparent shadow poll where they would have had equal access to delegates and the fairness of the convention committee, if these were not in doubt.

Grudges are misplaced after the exercise, especially when the winner has acknowledged the valour and competitive spirits of co-contestants and solicited their support. When an aspirant suspects a foul play, he exploits the option of appeal to the party’s leadership as outlined by the guidelines for the primary. In extreme cases, if he is dissatisfied with the verdict of the appeal panel, he can approach the court for arbitration.

But where an aspirant bypasses all these procedures and resorts to maligning the winner, as it were, smacks of cheap blackmail, bare-faced bias, and distressing frustration.

The vituperation the preacher has employed to relate with his erstwhile co-contestant for the APC ticket may be the reason many party chieftains now believe he has, regrettably, regressed into an inexplicable campaign of calumny against the party’s standard bearer through subterfuge.

Keen observers believe there may also be justification to connect his outbursts with his poor showing at the APC primary where he lost his deposit without a vote.

The display of bitterness may also be due to cumulative anger, which had been piling up since 2011, when Buhari was made to realise too late in the day that he had uncritically made a wrong choice of presidential running mate that could not fly, despite the posturing that churchmen can also be crowd pullers on poll day.

If the candidate on Bakare’s mind is that of APC, then, as a chieftain, the pastor has committed anti-party activity. In those days of party supremacy and discipline, it was a serious infraction for a party member to seek to de-market the symbol of his party ahead of election.

However, there is no evidence to show that Bakare’s campaign against the presidential candidate he has refused to mention will affect the outcome of the February 25 poll.

Bakare may not be a factor in next month’s election. But that also may not diminish his profile as a vocal voice for democracy, justice, rule of law and good governance. He has appealed to so many people as a rich but non-flamboyant pastor and social critic. But, as a politician, his impact, so far, has not been impressive. There is room for improvement in the future.

The preacher’s dedication and commitment to the peace of the country and wellbeing of the citizens will still be required when the next president is elected.

Bakare and, indeed, other clerics, including few ones fueling politico-religious tension, should shift attention to positive politicking. They should admonish candidates to play by the rules of the game and intensify their prayers for the country.

Nigeria needs prayers for a successful election. The country also needs prayers at a time another global recession is said to be looming. As patriotic leaders try to solve the myriad of challenges confronting the country, religious leaders should complement their efforts.

Pastors who seek elective positions should learn the ropes. They need to understand that Nigeria has produced many prophets, evangelists and pastors who have made enormous contributions to the nation’s socio-economic and political development.

They should also know that they were perceived as moral voices because of their style of politics.

Some of them were not full-time priests. Some stuck to their profession, despite being workers in the vineyard of God. The current crop of clerics should emulate the men of the old order who played moderating roles in politics and public office.

Circumstances have thrown up many Christian leaders to press for equity, fairness, justice and good governance. Archbishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa spent the greater part of his career fighting apartheid in South Africa. He won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Although he was not a politician, Pastor Isaac Akinyele, Olubadan of Ibadan and President of Christ Apostolic Church (CAC), contributed immensely to the educational development of the ancient city.

Venerable Emmanuel Alayande, teacher and Anglican priest, was an example of a gentleman. He is remembered more as principal of Ibadan Grammar School in the Oyo State capital, and a moulder of lives than as founding chieftain and Chaplain of the defunct Action Group (AG), and a close associate of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo.

In 1962, he predicted danger in the Western Region. He had written to the AG leader when party delegates headed for Jos for a Congress to handle the Akintola rebellion with care. He said to Awo: “You will need to make extreme self-sacrifice and self-abnegation. You will need to be less inflexible and more condescending.” The advice was ignored. AG ran into final turbulence. The party split forever.

In the Second Republic, Alayande contested for governor of Old Oyo State at the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) primary. He lost to his former student, Chief Bola Ige. In humility, he made sacrifice by accepting to serve as Special Adviser on Education to the governor so that free education could be properly implemented in the state.

In Benue State, Rev. Fr. Moses Adasu made his mark briefly as a Third Republic governor. Pastor Femi Emmanuel, Presiding Pastor of Livingspring Chapel International, was a member of the Oyo State House of Assembly who became the Deputy Speaker during the time.

But, despite the fact that power is alluring, politics is not so rosy. Literally, a pastor in politics may feel that he is a sheep among wolves.

A former governorship candidate in a Southern Nigerian state once told the story of how his followers fixed a meeting for a Sunday morning. He pleaded with them, saying he must be at the church service. They overruled him. He could not attend church service that holy day.

Besides, the followers insisted that they wanted beer and other alcoholic drinks during the meeting. He objected. But since it was during a critical electioneering, they threatened to disperse. They had their way, to the consternation of the so-called born-again pastor who always preached against alcoholism.

Such is the nature of politics and political life. Clerics in politics should also be tolerant of criticisms and face the game with reality and objectivity.

THERE are four major presidential candidates for next month’s election. They are: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP).

Their campaign strategies and manifestos differ. These speak volumes about what they represent and how they will manage the affairs of the country, if any of them is elected President. While some observers have identified ethnicity and religion as core factors that are likely to shape the February 25 contest, a deeper look reveals that there are other salient factors that will point to the direction the poll will take. But only the well informed about the nation’s political terrain can see and understand them.  

First, only a candidate who can appeal to the generality of Nigerians, irrespective of tribe and belief, is likely to triumph at the poll.

This is why the debate on the impact of ethnicity and religion has dominated the current electioneering. Thus, candidates are very sensitive to the two factors. But it is becoming clearer that 2023 is adorning a similar garb that 1993 adorned when religion and ethnicity took the back seat.

How are the candidates responding to these twin factors? Former Vice President Atiku, in an earlier television interview he granted in Hausa, regressed into primordial sentiment, urging Northerners to vote for a Northern candidate.

Many Nigerians condemned the regression to ethnicity at the expense of national unity and cohesion. The statement was not only offensive to the North; it also sparked apprehension in the South because of the insinuation that the Wazirin Adamawa had obviously adopted a language of division. The self-styled unifier had employed a language of discord. But Atiku has recanted, saying he was misinterpreted and misunderstood.

However, if a campaign is anchored on ethnicity and religion, can a flag bearer scale through when the unresolved party crisis and controversy over the presidential candidacy has remained knotty?

For the Obidients, the supporters of Peter Obi, two factors are their pillars. Most of them are targeting Igbo in their Southeast homeland and others scattered across the country. Also, they are bringing religion to the front burner, emphasising that Christians should vote for Obi because he is a Catholic.

The disadvantage of this approach is that Obi’s bid for the presidency has an ethnic, indeed, a regional coloration. The argument is further weakened by the fact that besides their leaning on the two factors of Christianity and race, Obi cannot really be assessed by any great plan or manifesto beyond reeling out unsubstantiated and unreliable data about the economy.

Kwankwaso has conducted a neat campaign targeted at his few followers and avoided inflammatory statements about religion and tribalism. But, he appears to be the weakest among the four, not because he is not popular, but because of the unpopular party he has adopted for the election.

Evidently, Asiwaju Tinubu of the APC is the most visible candidate who has dominated the campaign scene. While Atiku and Obi are appealing to kinsmen to gain advantage, Tinubu is building bridges of understanding across the geo-political zones and appealing to all the people of Nigeria to elect him as their President.

Recently, the debate on ethno-religious factor assumed another dimension when few ethnic jingoists shouting Naka Sai Naka, translated as ‘Your own is your own,’ began to whip up sentiment and cause confusion ahead of the poll. In their narrow befuddled perception of politics, they allude to regional numerical strength as an exclusive factor.

But, factors that enhance national stability go beyond imaginary regional bullying. No region, big or small, can exist independently of others in this country. Experience has shown that partnerships between or among regions have led to victory of ruling parties during presidential elections.

However, despite the activities of those fueling ethnic tensions, voices of reason are not drowning. Elders who know the history of Nigeria and the implications of elevating sectional interests above national interest have called for caution. Elder statesman Tanko Yakassai has accused a Northern monarch, who allegedly asked his people to vote for “their son” of wreaking havoc and rejecting the basis for integration. Reports also said that a former minister who asked Nigerians to vote their kith and kin, particularly in a section of the country, has been advised to pull the break.

Since the annulled 1993 presidential election, it appears Nigerians have resolved to elect their presidents without ethnic considerations.

On June 12 of that year, people from the six geo-political zones jettisoned ethnic and religious considerations as they trooped out to vote for either the late Chief Moshood Abiola of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) or the late Alhaji Othman Tofa of the National Republican Convention (NRC).

At the end of polling, Abiola, a Yoruba, had more votes in Kano than Tofa, a Hausa from the ancient city.

Gone were the retrogressive sentiments of 1959, 1964, 1979 and 1983, which fueled ethnic suspicion and divided the country. After the fall of first and second republics, 1993, 2015 and 2019 presidential polls, more or less, have become unifying factors. For example, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who ran on the platform of PDP in 1999, won without the endorsement of his native Southwest. He profited immensely from his portrayal as a friend of the North.

Despite Gen. Muhammadu Buhari’s consistent 11 million votes from his native North, he never made it in 2003, 2007 and 2011 until he had an alliance with the South. The experience is very instructive.

The terms of the agreement were premised on zoning, which is now a stronger factor than ethnicity and religion.

Since 1999, the adoption of zoning through convention, rather than by the constitution, has become a baseline for the partial resolution of the ethnic question. Rotation of the Presidency satisfies the quest for equity and justice.

Another leg of the Naka Sai Naka argument is the improper comparison of earlier period with the present time.

Drawing a similarity between the 1979 presidential election and 2023 poll is a lazy intellectual effort. Although the Kaduna State chapter of Naka Sai Naka (only yours] campaign has insisted that a similarity exists, the claims of the group are spurious.

Is Obi, the candidate of Labour Party (LP), an incarnate of Dr. Nnamidi Azikiwe of the defunct Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP)?

Can Tinubu’s APC, which has been transformed into a solid and formidable national movement, be described as an offshoot of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), led by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo?

Is Atiku’s PDP a product of the Second Republic President Shehu Shagari’s National Party of Nigeria (NPN)?

In what way is the NNPP, borrowed by Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, similar to the defunct Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) of the late Mallam Aminu Kano?

Early parties revolved around the personalities of their moving spirits; the illustrious nationalists and pathfinders who wanted to lead the country, based on their clear vision, ideology and future projections about the country of their dream. They were like father-figures, held in esteem and on many occasions, their moral authority was ever questioned. But, some historians have also described them as ethnic cham pions.

The old parties, except the NPN, lacked adequate national outlook. But, unlike today, their leadership was firm in the enforcement of party supremacy and discipline. Politics was not monetised and, although some moneybags, particularly captains of industry supported the parties, they did not directly bid for power.

Hierarchy was respected and there was orderliness. Factors that were considered before picking candidates were minimum education, character, standing in the community, subscription to party ideas and ethos, seniority, sacrifice and contribution to the party.

In its analysis, the Naka Sai Naka group omitted the significance of rotation, which was conventionally adopted by the NPN. It is noteworthy that the defunct NPN, which was the most victorious party in the Second Republic, had a future zoning plan, which would have been implemented as from 1987, if the military had not hijacked power.

Based on its shallow historical analysis, the group claimed, for example, that Kwankwaso can only win in Kano, just as Aminu Kano did some 44 years ago; Tinubu can only have an impressive showing in the Southwest, like Awo; Obi will only be restricted to the Southeast, like Zik; and only Atiku can win in the North, like Shagari, while also garnering votes from other parts of the country.

The permutations pale into day-dreaming. It cannot even pass the test of face validity.

The historical premise is even faulty. Zik’s NPP, through Solomon Lar, won in Plateau State in 1979 and 1983. Also, Aminu Kano won, not only in Kano but also in Kaduna.

Besides, some issues and alignment of forces have altered the geo-political calculus after the Second Republic. In the Third Republic, the two parties, defunct SDP and NRC, won elections across the six geo-political zones.

Between 1999 and now, PDP, APP (later ANPP), and APC have won presidential and governorship elections across the six regions.

There is a significant difference between the defunct parties and the current ones, and issues that have shaped political processes have not been the same. While old parties, except NCNC, were short-lived, contemporary parties are insulated from mortality and instability. For example, while AG and post-1950 NCNC only lasted 16 years from 1950 to 1966, PDP and other parties that have gone through metamorphosis in this dispensation have existed for a longer time.

The only similarity now between Aminu Kano and Kwankwaso is that they are both from Kano.

Aminu Kano was perceived as a radical who packaged his idealistic rebellion against the Northern feudalist power bloc. His party maintained an undisputed influence in Kano. But, equating NNPP with PRP or the old NEPU now smacks of fantasy.

Today, the fate of Kwankwaso’s NNPP in Kano is uncertain because the presidential candidate has to contend with other antagonistic forces, led by Ibrahim Shekarau of the PDP and, more importantly, Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC.