JIDE Adediran, journalist, media consultant and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Lagos State, is throwing a challenge at the All Progressives Congress (APC) family in the Centre of Excellence.

How far can he go?

His fans said it may be dangerous to underrate an opponent, even if he is an upstart, because anybody can spring a surprise. But poll-confident Lagos APC is unperturbed. Its leaders consider the onslaught as the ranting of an ant; the flimsy bravado of an inexperienced bidder and a product of jaundiced self-assessment.

The PDP flag bearer has said he does not believe in the presidential ambition of APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, at a time Lagosians, people of the Southwest and the generality of Nigerians are gravitating towards his direction and are full of eagerness about 2023. It is in exercise of his human right and freedom of association guaranteed by the constitution.

Also, the young man said he wanted to displace Governor Babaijde Sanwo-Olu in next year’s poll. It is evident that the governor is not sleeping on guard, irrespective of opponents eyeing the number one seat.

Apart from the PDP flag bearer, no fewer than 10 opposition candidates are also making feeble attempts.

Adediran’s campaign posters can be sighted on the streets. Like those of other candidates, they adorn and litter the walls of public places. He has also been holding rallies, along with his running mate, Actress Funke Akindele (Jenifa), who entered politics few months ago. Exuding confidence, the PDP candidate has boasted that power will shift in Lagos next year.

Adediran, fondly called Jandor by admirers, defected from the ruling APC, following his unsuccessful bid for the governorship ticket. Before his departure from the fold, many stalwarts had perceived him as a rebellious, impatient and deviant member who subjected the chapter to an orgy of personal rebuke.

He knew that his confrontational approach could lead to his exit from the camp, due to irreconcilable differences.

Although Adediran was a consultant to the Babatunde Fashola administration between 2007 and 2015, he was not known as a party man. Later, his philanthropic activities caught the attention of some people. He rode to the political theatre on the back of his empowerment programmes.

As he assembled a structure, he attempted to position himself as an internal opposition leader. He criticised the party’s tradition and formula for leadership recruitment and choice of candidates for election. But, Lagos APC is a big party, always ready to withstand an offensive or aggression in and out of the platform.

Full of initiative, Adediran understands the power of money. Having made fortunes through his engagement with the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) administration, he delved into business, riding on the supportive platform guaranteed by his closeness to the corridor of power. Seven years after, his professional colleagues marvelled at the successes that attended his capacity for risk-taking. Boasting about these feats, he described himself as a successful man, proud owner of Core TV, and an employer of labour.

He also said he was ready for a titanic fight that would be a wide departure from the half-hearted attempt by the opposition party in the past.

Adediran was ushered into the stage by his philosophy of “Lagos for Lagos” with its inherent divisive tendency in a state that has prided itself as a heterogeneous community; a mini-Nigeria harbouring compatriots from across the federation. Non-indigenes were put off by what they described as potential tension between indigenes and settlers, and its implications for peaceful coexistence. The slogan was later moderated. But, the intention, having filled public consciousness, refused to fizzle out. And the suspicion grew.

Adediran has never posed as a scholar. Neither has he pretended to be an ideologue. His public service experience is nil. He has never served in any layer of government, never contested before, and not associated with officialdom beyond media consultancy.

Yet, to Lagos PDP chieftains, Adediran became a big catch. It has always been the lot of Lagos PDP to borrow an aggrieved chieftain from the ruling party for adoption as its candidate. Many PDP chieftains have links with the APC because many of them had the dormant Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the defunct AC and ACN as mutual roots.

The periodic struggles for governorship ticket have often been fierce, warranting strategic defections by impatient politicians seeking the Golden Fleece outside their political family.

Also, as some observers have noted, those who left the Bola Tinubu political family knew how to return later to savour greater relevance in the camp. It is being said that if the PDP candidate fails at the poll, the likelihood exists that he too would return to the fold like those before him-Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, Otunba Olufemi Pedro and Senator Tokunbo Afikuyomi.

A section of the ruling party thinks that with proper grooming, and in an atmosphere of party supremacy and discipline, the likes of Jandor and many other party youths can be part of the future assets of the party and the state, if they are patient, if they calculate well and demonstrate foresight.

Adediran got the governorship ticket with minimal stress, probably due to the shortage of governorship materials in the weak chapter,  the influence of powerful party leaders from outside the state and the personal structure he had projected.

After getting the ticket, party leaders turned the heat on him for picking an outsider as running mate. The controversy still lingers.

However, on Thursday, cracks also appeared on the wall of the Jandor movement. Thousands of supporters retraced their steps to APC. Those who came back said more would follow their action.

Will Lagos voting pattern change next year? Does the PDP permutation in Lagos have any basis in the political history of the metropolis?

Lagos is the greatest stronghold of the progressive bloc. By 2023, the bloc would have dominated power in the Centre of Excellence for 24 years, in the current dispensation alone. As the APC seeks the renewal of its mandate, the achievements of former Governors Tinubu, his successors – Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode and Sanwo-Olu – would be the party’s armour.

Keen observers say Asiwaju Tinubu has laid a solid foundation for his successors to build upon. They have presided over model administrations that have protected public interest. While the PDP, the Labour Party (LP) and other smaller parties would be soliciting for votes based on mere promises to Lagosians, the APC, now positioned as a tested and trusted party, will request for a fresh mandate by tendering the scorecards of the four governors and making new promises it can fulfill in post-election period.

In particular, Sanwo-Olu is in a vantage position to tender his scorecard to voters. He has broken new grounds. His achievements include turning Lagos into a huge construction site, investment in education, health, transportation, environment, housing and security. His THEMES captures all the sectors.

Since Lagos State was created in 1967, Lagosians have participated in nine governorship elections: 1979, 1983, 1991, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. In those polls, except that of 1991, Lagosians voted along similar and predictable lines. The 1991 exception was due to the inability of the progressives in the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) to put their house in order. As the struggle for the ticket between the late Prof. Femi Agbalajobi and Chief Dapo Sarunmi polarised the party, reconciliation proved abortive. The SDP leader, Alhaji Lateef Jakande, directed his camp to vote for the National Republican Convention (NRC) candidate, the late Sir Michael Otedola. The SDP candidate, Mr. Yomi Edu, a lawyer, was defeated.

Many issues will shape next year’s contest. The first is the incumbency factor. The size and strength of the parties and their perception by the people will also influence the direction the election will take. The APC controls the House of Assembly, which has 40 members, and 57 local councils. The three senators and 20 members of the House of Representatives belong to the ruling party.

Also, if federal might would be a factor, it will be to the advantage of APC.

The autochthonous factor will not be a serious issue in the megacity. Religion and zoning are also weak bases. When some Christian leaders agitated for a Christian governor, they acknowledged that the two Muslim governors -Tinubu and Fashola – whose wives are Christians, never marginalised any religious sect in governance. In the Southwest, religion is largely a non-issue.

In the PDP, the choice of a running mate has generated controversy. There is religious balance. But, PDP elders are not comfortable with the choice of the actress.

Will PDP and Labour Party (LP) collaborate during the governorship poll in Lagos? Only a thin line separates the two parties.

Ethnic balance is not compromised. But, things are changing. In 1979, the leader of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, advised the Lagos chapter to make Alhaji Rafiu Jafojo running mate to the flag bearer, Jakande. There was no evidence to show that the UPN won the election on the basis of that sub-ethnic balancing. Jakande represented core Lagos; Jafojo, whose grandfather hailed from Ile-Ife,  represented the Awori.

In the Third Republic, Mrs. Sinatu Ojikutu was Otedola’s running mate. He was from Epe and she was from Lagos Island.

In 1999, Asiwaju Tinubu and Senator Kofowola Akerele-Bucknor paired. Tinubu is from both Lagos Central. He has been contesting and voting in Lagos West. Bucknor is from Lagos Central.

Fashola is from Surulere in Lagos Central. His first deputy, Princes Sarah Sosan, is from the coastal area of Lagos West District. Mrs. Victoria Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire is from Alimoso in Lagos West.

Generally, the tradition is to look for a running mate, who the flag bearer can harmoniously work with for four years.

Lagosians will not be involved in political gambling next year. Voting will be dictated by a wider appreciation of the issues to be addressed and the capacity of the candidates.

Governance is not a tea party in Lagos. The residents are among the most enlightened people who can make informed decisions based on the realities on the ground and not often pushed by emotions towards regrettable situasions. This is among the reasons the Lagos polity has been stable for a long time. The residents are not known to throw the baby away with the birth water, even in extraneous circumstances.

During the campaigns, or debates, flag bearers will share with the electorate their blueprints. This is where knowledge and experience will count.

A mega city, an economic capital, and the former Federal Capital Territory, Lagos remains the mini-Nigeria. As a cosmopolitan city and West Africa’s commercial nerve centre, there is the mass exodus of youths in search of real and elusive opportunities. The electorate will want to hear from the candidates their strategies for handling these complexities.

Lagos is a Yoruba city, but indigenes of other states have become part of its political establishment. Their hosts are the people of the five divisions of Epe, Badagry, Ikorodu, Ikeja and Lagos. Nigerians from the hinterland have also increased the voting quality and strength of the state. These factors of accommodation and tolerance are great marks of Lagos.

The state is also a special a blend of diverse, complex and sophisticated dwellers who account for the prosperity of the city and the menace and vices that characterise its daily life.

Again, people will want to hear from the candidates their strategies for the management of diversity.

Lagos is host to the headquarters of thriving business empires. Over 60 per cent of the Value Added Tax (VAT) in the country is generated from the state alone. Despite the relocation of the federal capital to Abuja, many foreign diplomats still prefer to operate from Lagos. Thus, on the shoulders of Lagos governor rests the security of over 28 million residents, although he does not control the police. These residents include an army of restless, jobless youths, unemployed graduates and the masses.

What is the blueprint of candidates for the sustenance of security?

The governor will continue to shoulder the burden of population explosion as thousands continue to flood the city on daily basis. The huge population and influx of people daily will increase the demand for the few public sector employment, water, schools, roads, and other social infrastructure.

Housing is a major problem in the state. Although the government is trying its best, but the housing gap is still wide. These days, illegal immigrants from poor West African countries have joined the native beggars who take refuge under the bridges. Commercial motorcyclists, popularly called Okada riders, who are from Niger, Mali and Togo, have also come to protest against traffic law at the state secretariat in Alausa. Together with the city urchins, called area boys, the destitute pose a threat to security.

The battle for special status continues. Although Lagos shoulders enormous national responsibilities, the agitation for economic assistance has largely been ignored by the Federal Government. Many Federal, state and local government roads will continue to call for attention.

Who among the candidates can tackle these challenges better? Obviously, no novice can make the cosmopolitan city to remain in its enviable position. Only experienced technocrats can successfully pilot Lagos towards its deserved greater future.

The informed electorate in the state understands this and would not gamble with its franchise in 2023.

A new chapter will open in the life of Ekiti State tomorrow. Governor Kayode Fayemi will bow out after the expiration of his constitutional second term. How will history assess him?

It is to his credit, and indeed, a tribute to the progressive bloc in the Fountain of Knowledge that the governor is handing over to a worthy successor, an experienced politician, astute administrator and a homeboy, Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji. It is the first time an All Progressives Congress (APC) governor will be handing over to another party chieftain in the state. The jinx of continuity is broken.

The uniqueness of the seamless transition is that Oyebanji is, more or less, on a familiar terrain. He could be said to know Ekiti “inside out”. For years, the incoming governor has moved from the rungs of administrative ladder in the state. He participated in the long struggle for state creation and served the two progressive administrations of Otunba Adeniyi Adebayo and Fayemi, as Senior Special Assistant (SSA), Chief of Staff, director of an agency, commissioner and Secretary to the State Government (SSG).

An in-depth knowledge of Ekiti geography, sociology, peculiarity, and negligible diversity is at his fingertips. Growing up, the Ikogosi-born political scientist attended secondary school and university in the state. He also taught in his alma mater, the University of Ado-Ekiti, in the state capital.

BAO, as the new helmsman is fondly called by admirers, will inherit power as an asset. But he will also inherit the accompanying liability and burden.

The goal of politics is the attainment of power, which is alluring. But on Oyebanji’s shoulders now rests for the next four years – and perhaps beyond – the burden of building on the feats of his predecessor and repositioning Ekiti for greater accomplishments.

The new governor is coming on board at a time Ekiti is in pains. The state has become an eyesore because of massive infrastructural decay due to its neglect by the distant Federal Government. Many guests who will take the Itawure/Efon-Ado Ekiti Road to attend the inauguration tomorrow will lament the extent of the rot, damage and neglect. It is as if Ekiti is not a part of Nigeria. It is more lamentable because the Minister of Works has his roots and many admirers in Ekiti.

In 2015 and 2019, Ekiti voted for APC and President Muhammadu Buhari. The state is yet to be compensated for pitching its tent with the progressive government at the centre.

With the glaring shortfalls in the state’s development indices, it is obvious the incoming governor already knows the tasks ahead. Oyebanji did not wait for his inauguration before hitting the ground running.

Full of native intelligence, he waved the olive branch and demonstrated humility by visiting his rivals across board with messages of reconciliation and peace. It was not a familiarisation tour, although the visit provided a supplementary opportunity for need analysis, reassessment of the problems on the ground and proposed strategies for tackling them.

That decisive step became necessary to pacify aggrieved contenders and ensure an atmosphere of peace and unity in the ruling party and the entire state.

Besides, Oyebanji conveyed a feeling of readiness to foster inclusion and wider participation in governance. Thus, his tour of the 16 local councils and area offices to mobilise for the challenges of governance was the right step in the right direction.

The new governor is expected to maintain that style and culture of consultation, accessibility and open-door policy throughout his tenure.

The incoming governor perfectly understands the grammar of politics in rural and agrarian Ekiti. He is conscious of the fact that he cannot run a wholly elitist government. It is at the grassroots that democratic leaders can actually gauge the pulse of the public.

Since he is not the governor of APC alone, Oyebanji has solicited the cooperation of all indigenes, residents, and all Ekiti people in the Diaspora. Stakeholders see him experience and character. But the former university teacher does not claim to have a monopoly of ideas and knowledge.

Many observers have applauded him for visiting the founding fathers of the state, prominent elders, leaders, former governors, and other patriots, to drink from their fountain of wisdom.

As he drums support for renewal of progressive governance, he is expected to also tap from the experience of his successor, under whom he served for eight years.

Read Also: Build on Fayemi’s legacy, Bagudu, Zulum tell Oyebanji

Apart from the hands-on experience the incoming governor has garnered over the years, his humility and willingness to work with other eminent sons and daughters of the highly literate state is expected to open several doors of cooperation for his administration.

His visits to many Ekiti leaders, who cut across the political divide, may have paved the way for him as a governor who is eager and ready to push his state, with the collective efforts of fellow compatriots, to lofty heights.

The visits have taken him to former Governor Ayo Fayose; his main challenger at the poll, Bisi Kolawole of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); former Deputy Governors Paul Alabi and Prof. Olusola Eleka; eminent lawyers – Chief Afe Babalola (SAN), Chief Wole Olanipekun (SAN), Mr. Femi Falana (SAN), and Mr. Dele Adesina (SAN).

Others include nationalist and elder statesman, Chief Deji Fasuan; the Ewi of Ado-Ekiti, Oba Rufus Adeyemo Adejugbe; popular journalist and politician, Senator Babafemi Ojudu; pharmacist, legal practitioner and former Secretary of Health, Prince Julius Adelusi-Adeluyi; and Lagos State Police Commissioner Yinka Alabi.

Explaining his consultative visits, Oyebanji said: “To take Ekiti to an enviable height, we must do away with unnecessary politicking in governance. Ours is a unique state and if our human potentials and resources are well harnessed, we can be sure of prosperity. As Ekiti governor, I want to work for the general good of my people without allowing unnecessary pettiness to stand barrier, hence, the need to embrace all.”

Many believe that Oyebanji’s election was an act of God. It was also an indication that Ekiti chose to elect a rational leadership, in line with the admonition of the foremost Awoist and former Ondo State Governor Adekunle Ajasin who, while congratulating the monarchs and leaders of Ekiti when the state was created in 1996, urged the people never to depart from the path of progressive pathfinders.

However, Oyebanji is not a man to be envied at this crucial time of national economic dilapidation, when sources of revenue are depleting. How much can Ekiti generate internally in a month? The N4 billion the Federal Government allocates the state and less than N1 billion internally generated revenue (IGR) are a far cry from the funds needed for the realistic needs of the state.

It is also gradually becoming old fashioned in Southwestern Nigeria to flaunt the payment of salaries and pensions as a core achievement. A government will be remembered on account of infrastructural projects undertaken and how it can guarantee an atmosphere of security and peace.

Much is expected of Oyebanji in the areas of financial creativity, prudent management of meagre resources, investment drive, prioritisation of developmental programms, and equitable distribution of projects.

During the campaigns, Oyebanji was not boastful about automatic problem-solving. His message has been centred on the premise that “we will do it together”. But, being the custodian of the mandate, he will take responsibility. The onus is on him to muster the strength to fulfill his campaign promises to the various segments of the society. Many Southwest people also look forward to the contribution of Oyebanji to the cause of regional integration.

Inevitably, like all previous governors have seen and those of today and tomorrow will see, the incoming governor will face challenges.

The first is the challenge of consolidating his victory through judicial verdict. It is typical of Nigerians for the electoral battle to shift from the ballot box to the courtroom. Thus, the cost of sustaining victory is burdensome.

Oyebanji will finally heave a sigh of relief after the determination of the litigation against his victory by the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, former Governor Segun Oni. Until then, his attention will be minimally distracted by the case.

The second is the challenge of living up to expectation. The economic climate is cloudy.  Promises have been given. They must be kept. Voters expect their fulfilment. The people of the far-flung Ekiti are not likely to be patient with any administration. There should not be a gulf between expectation and reality.

The third is the challenge of likely momentary slowdown due to the coming on board next year of members of House of Assembly, majority of who are first-term lawmakers who have to learn the ropes.

The fourth is the challenge of assembling a team of competent commissioners, special advisers and other aides who share Oyebanji’s vision about a greater tomorrow for Ekiti. Many are already scrambling to become commissioners, special advisers, special assistants and aides. Many have a sense of entitlement. But the slots are limited.

The fifth is the challenge of sustaining cordial relations between the departing governor and the new chief executive. This is crucial to prevent the troubling predecessor-successor crises that have characterised many states.

The sixth is the challenge of security. Pockets of kidnapping, ritual killings and other crimes have been reported in the state. The security of the people and their property needs to be strengthened for the residents to work and do their businesses in peace. The absence or breaches of this essential element take a huge toll on the confidence of the people to go about their daily routines. It is, therefore, important for the incoming governor to make life difficult for all those at the bottom of insecurity in any part of the state. This will be achieved at a huge cost but it will be worthwhile in the long run.

The seventh is the challenge of responding to the quest of many communities for autonomy, which has, globally speaking, become the anthem of the millennium. In those communities where there are agitations and resistance, the solution is the maintenance of fidelity to history, tradition, human rights and truth and conscience.

It is necessary for the incoming governor to handle the sensitive issue with care  to avoid an escalation. The way to achieve this is to give every community a sense of belonging in his administration.

As Oyebanji begins to give Ekiti effective governance, the people themselves need to cooperate with him to deliver the essential dividends of democracy.

One can only wish him the best of luck in the tasks ahead.

Electoral fever has gripped many politicians. The contagious symptom is manifesting among the key players – and their lieutenants – as the hour for the kick-off of the campaigns draws nearer. Politicians are learning fast that the road to the seat of power is bumpy and tortuous. They have begun to understand that it is usually laced with trends and bends, turns and thorns.

But while all politics is local, all politicians are not of same content and intent. Some people are in the race to genuinely serve. Those are the people who see politics as a vocation. Many others are in it to plunder. They see politics as a career. They generate the tension that engulfs the country as campaigns gather momentum. Their activities cause apprehension.

The prevailing political scenario has thrown up such a development, which is not likely to fizzle out until next February when winners of the various contests will savour victory and the losers will lick their wounds.

To those who face the reality, politics is a big headache. It is also a big business. In Nigeria, elections create uncertainties; they often plunge the players into nightmares.

Ahead of any election in this country, an artificial economic recovery becomes imperative. A common feature of the electoral economy is the increase in spending by the political class.

During the electioneering season, stakeholders become very busy. Posters are printed. Musicians are hired to release partisan songs. Campaign grounds are rented. Transporters get busier. Food vendors become richer. Producers of campaign uniforms and other souvenirs smile to the bank. In some towns and cities, armed robbers and sundry criminals retreat. Key players in that fiendish sector temporarily gain employment with some politicians until the end of the election season.

Collective attention is currently focused on 2023. What will next year bring? Who succeeds President Muhammadu Buhari? Which first-term governors and lawmakers will lose their seats? What are the issues that will shape the contests? What are the possible scenarios? These questions are begging for answers. But, predictably, voting may not be influenced by these factors in many constituencies.

Voters’ behaviour across the six regions is not likely to be the same due to some intervening variables. Poverty, ethnicity, illiteracy and religion will play significant roles in the attitude of the electorate towards many candidates in the five-layer polls.

Globally, politics is characterised by strife and rancour. The antagonism is said to be normal. There is ego war; there is seasonal bitterness. Joining the fray means opening a file of your life to the public for scrutiny. Gossips are the periodic pastime associated with electioneering in the country. Nigerians peddle rumours in beer parlours, at newspaper stands, on local football pitches, in commercial buses, and at village squares.

The electorate is sometimes misinformed at those arenas. Prophets of doom and boom spring up at all fronts to predict victories and failures. They will not be held responsible if the predictions – often based on conjectures – come true or not. In fact, some candidates will visit soothsayers, marabouts and other predictors who play god and claim to know the future.

Candidates are at the receiving end of character assassination. They are upset by image malignancy. It is getting worse, owing to the massive use and abuse of the social media. How many abusers can candidates take to court for defamation?

Personalities are elevated over issues. Unlike in the First and Second Republics, ideology is now a non-issue. A political party should be an association of people united by similarity of ideas. The First Republic parties – Action Group (AG), National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) and Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) – were different. At least, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) was different from the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in the Second Republic. Indeed, Third Republic’s Social Democratic Party (SDP) was different from the National Republican Convention (NRC). But, what is the difference between today’s All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) today?

Defections were common, but serial defectors were not many during the saner era. Today, it is possible for a politician to traverse three political parties in a year on the grounds of freedom of association and assembly. It smacks of political harlotry.

Many of those in the PDP last year have defected to the APC today. Some APC gladiators have also defected to the PDP shortly after governorship and parliamentary primaries. In the spate of three months, a former governor, who is currently a senator, traversed the APC, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and PDP. As they jump ship, they are accompanied by gullible supporters. The goal is personal survival. Each time a party receives a defector into its fold, they treat him as a big fish. It is laughable.

While Nigerians were fascinated by manifestos in the past, they no longer rely on promises by politicians before they choose who will govern them on poll day. Some critics argue that people are used to deceit by politicians.

Also, since candidates are only within reach when they are looking for votes, hungry, poverty stricken and angry citizens seemed to have converted election time to an opportunity to struggle for the crumbs falling off the table of privileged leaders.

While the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Sir Ahmadu Bello, Mallam Aminu Kano and other founding fathers attracted mass following based on their quality of politics and reputation, many latter-day politicians only seek to retain support through financial inducement.

In the circumstance, senior citizens are seized by nostalgia. In their times, they vetted political parties, party leaders, aspirants and candidates before giving their endorsement. They took ownership of political parties and, indeed, the political process at the levels of cells, units, wards and local governments, brimming with loyalty and pride of political association. They were always eager to pay their dues.

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They volunteered as vote canvassers. Their expectation, particularly in the Southwest, was the fulfilment of the promise of “Freedom for All, Life More Abundant.” Poll-confident and politically conscious Southwest believed in the Four Cardinal Points of UPN in the Second Republic: Free Education, Free Medical Services, Full Employment and Integrated Rural Development. It was a model for development that made the region to soar ahead of other zones.

Politics should be for service. Ironically, political involvement is now, more or less, perceived as employment. Idle and restless youths become thugs hired by politicians to wreak havoc on opponents, and hangers-on anticipate petty, ad hoc political appointments after elections.

Vote buying or dibo k’o se’be (vote and cook), which is now a phenomenon, was not rampant in previous dispensations. The polity has been turned upside down by the antics of vote traders who sell and buy votes, unconscious of the fact that they are polluting the polity by selling their conscience and promoting bad governance.

More pathetic is the political behaviour of youths who wallow in ignorance. Youths of today do not mirror the youths of pre-independence era and immediate independence period who learnt at the feet of wise, credible elders. They cannot be acknowledged for any initiation and communication of values. The youth activists of the 1950s played notable roles in the foundational politics. Many of them were not found wanting. They were not in pursuit of money.

Activism became a training ground for future leadership. Youths and students’ organisations fought military regimes. But, following the factionalisation of the National Association of Nigerians Students (NANS), youth bodies have not been the same. Can society expect any meaningful thing from the disarticulated students’ organisations that now compete with politicians in their quest for private wealth accumulation? Many youths are gullible and fickle-minded. They lack the skills to make informed or rational choices. They are active on the social media, no doubt. But, they lack the understanding of history and the imperative of the national question: the etiology of the Nigerian political mess, the lopsided distribution of power, the flawed unitary system masquerading as federalism, the decayed and dictatorial constitution, and circumstances that warranted the push for unity in diversity.

It is noted that more youths have registered to vote in next year’s poll. But many of them may end up voting without a proper focus. It is predicted that many youths will vote due to peer pressure. While they are understandably lovers of entertainment and sports, many of them need political education, sensitisation and enlightenment to vote wisely.

No doubt, politics was rough in those early days too. But it is incontrovertible that the men of the old order were much more credible. Their motivation for entering politics was not primitive wealth accumulation. The current monetisation of politics, as further shown by the payment of millions of naira for nomination forms, is highly condemnable. Political participation becomes an investment, and politicians, as investors, would want to garner returns. The implication is that they may be eager to recoup when power lands in their palms.

The huge financial involvement is a factor in political desperation and electoral fraud. Yet, the apprehension has now been increased because the chances of malpractices have been reduced due to the gradual recourse to electronic voting.

Things are changing. Politicians are bound to make hard adjustments to the new voting schedules. In the past, there was a line of demarcation between those who played politics of virtue, who were in the majority, and a few master riggers, who were targets of spontaneous and popular revolt. In this dispensation, university teachers who served as ad hoc electoral officers were involved in malpractices, an ignoble act that was unimaginable in the sixties, eighties and nineties. It is gratifying that those involved paid dearly for their infractions.

The moment of propaganda is now here.

Sweet talkers arouse, incite and manufacture falsehoods, taking with them the naïve on the perfidious journey. Some flag bearers are contesting only on the social media, where influencers peddle rumours and falsehoods.

Already, one million fake voters have been detected by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The fate of contestants for double positions of president and senators are being determined by the court. Smaller parties on INEC register are dwarfed by bigger platforms. APC is battling with defection of aggrieved chieftains in some states. The PDP is contending with a bigger trouble, a tall hurdle to scale: the “Ayu Must Go” importunity.

This season’s electioneering is full of drama, humour, surprises, suspense and disappointments.

Despite all the intrigues, many candidates are still bubbling with hope, the elixir of life, that 2023 will usher in a new era. Political events in the next few months will determine the reality or mirage of that hope.

Addicted to crises, main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is licking its self-inflicted wounds. Its leadership appears to be in disarray, aptly enveloped in self-deception and troubled by lack of fidelity to its cherished values.

It is a big, national party with tentacles across the nooks and crannies of the country. Its structures are formidable. The PDP is not an ideological party. But it is always motivated by its intention to capture power, even by foul means, in the past. Today, although its national chairman and presidential candidate are perceived as democrats, many party men and women are not convinced that the PDP now has the capacity to retain a national outlook because of the composition of its national leadership.

The bone of contention, as they have argued, is that the two key decision makers – the national chairman and presidential flag bearer – are from the same geo-political zone, the North. Other zones suspect monopolisation of power and consequential exclusion. The result is the worsening disunity within the fold.

Few weeks to the kick-off of campaigns for next year’s general election, the post-presidential primary crisis remains unresolved. Now, the divided house wobbles along the campaign path to the anticipated poll. Instead of upholding the truth, PDP is busy chasing shadows.

The party has passed through many phases of leadership crisis. But the current conflict is overwhelming. It is a serious challenge that has made the party static, unable to press forward or move backward.

PDP younger elements are fighting the residual class of gerontocrats. The weapons are, lamentably, ethnicity. PDP is made up of diverse Nigerians. Nigeria is not one. It is made up of different regions. To forge unity and ensure cohesion, the founding fathers of the party subscribed to a formula, a sort of charter of equity.

In their view, six positions are critical. They are: the president, vice president, Senate President, House of Representatives Speaker, Secretary to Government of the Federation, and national chairman. The founding fathers also reasoned that if the President or presidential candidate came from the South, the national chairman should automatically come from the North.

But, for some reasons, the pact is being neglected. Therefore, the turmoil is expected. The turbulence may persist, unless party leaders demonstrate the courage to return to the vision of the party’s founding fathers.

To douse tension in the fold, PDP resorted to a cosmetic leadership change two days ago. The decision was taken with reluctance. It was devoid of conviction. The Board of Trustees (BoT) chairman, Senator Walid Jibrin, who understands the clash of forces perfectly, stepped down. He was not the target of those championing emergency restructuring in the party.

Jibrin, a committed party man, is a Northerner. A Southerner and former Senate President Adolphus Wabara was hurriedly asked to fill the vacant position. When the idea of BoT leadership change was being mooted, the party was divided on the approach. Only few party leaders, especially those who were working towards a particular answer, applauded the move. There was the belief that it was not the route to solve the lingering crisis. The generality of the party members were not thrilled by the hypocritical move.

The reason is not far-fetched. The BoT appears to be a centre of influence. But, its chairman is not as powerful as the national chairman of the party. The BoT is largely an advisory organ with decorative powers. It can bark but it cannot bite deeply, unlike the chairman, who heads the National Executive Committee (NEC), the National Working Committee (NWC) and the National Caucus.

Will the selection of Wabara as BoT chair man pacify Southern members pushing for equity and justice? It is doubtful.

Wabara, who was also appointed as an adviser to the embattled National Chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu, is not a product of consensus. He is now identified with a particular tendency, to the consternation of the second camp, which is equally fighting for recognition and relevance in the party.

Read Also; PDP crisis: Can Ayu survive the storm?

Wabara is from Abia State, where key party leaders had rooted for a Southern presidency in the spirit of fairness. His governor, Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu, is an integral part of the South’s battle against marginalisation and alienation from the PDP.

Will the governor now back down from the legitimate pursuit of fair play? Can Wabara exert influence on Ikpeazu? Does the emergence of Wabara as BoT chairman not even convey an impression of divide and rule at a time his kit and kin are resisting exclusion and alienation?

Will the Southern Caucus of the PDP perceive his appointment as a condition for the restoration of a sense of belonging? In terms of mobilisation prowess, can Wabara match the aggrieved governors? Without the support of his zone, and the larger South bloc, can he make any impact?

The PDP parades many old, experienced leaders. But how is their wisdom or experience robbing off on the platform during the protracted crisis?

How effective is the platform’s conflict resolution mechanism at this trying period? Will the main opposition go into the campaigns as a divided house?

The danger of allowing a crisis to fester in a political party is that reconciliation can become a herculean task. There can be reconciliation which pales into a theoretical truce. After a truce by warring gladiators, the healing process can take a longer time.

The dark side of a protracted intra-party strife and rancour is that settlement may not herald real renewal of contact and confidence building after the war.

Whenever the PDP crisis is over, there may be a need to also reconcile party chieftains who have freely used words against one another, especially Rivers Governor Nyesom Wike and former Niger Governor Babangida Aliyu, and Wike’s supporters and Sule Lamido, who have shifted the war to the media.

Since the crisis broke out in the main opposition party after former Vice President Atiku Abubakar was picked as presidential candidate, the Southern Caucus has persisted in its demand for balance in the distribution of political offices. It is because they believe that the legacy of the PDP is the adoption of zoning as a core convention. Therefore, its breach is the cause of the conflict.

Remarkably, crisis had erupted because powerful forces in the party had opposed power shift to the South, insisting that another Northerner should succeed President Muhammadu Buhari, who is a Northerner, in next year’s election.

It smacks of gross insensitivity that these so-called powerful forces, including Generals who are dictating the tunes in blissful retirement, could give impetus to a party that has a national outlook to turn its back against the principle of unity in diversity.

How should the South react to the scenario of power retention when it is being faced with the reality of 16 years rule by the North, if the PDP were to return to power?

If PDP has lived to the vision of its founding fathers and the presidential candidate had been picked from the South, would the current imbroglio not have been averted?

Yet, lack of proper engagement or communication has compounded the deep-seated rift. The opposition to rotation or zoning was being rationalised by the poor and unconvincing argument that PDP cannot recapture power, if a presidential candidate from the South is fielded for next year’s poll.

As Atiku got the ticket, Ayu hailed Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal, who was asked to step down for him, describing him as the hero of the primary. It sent a wrong signal that there was a pre-determined agenda to strategically shove the South aside.

The adamancy of anti-zoning forces has inadvertently boxed Nigeria into the North-South dichotomy. Although Atiku claims to be a unifier, his emergence as the party’s flag bearer does not seem to engender unity or cohesion, either in his troubled party or in the country.

Also, what discussion took place between Atiku and Wike when the candidate visited him in his residence at Abuja? Was it true that Atiku conveyed the impression that Wike would be his running mate?

Did Ayu promise to step down as chairman? What factors aided him to renege on his promise?

Were the Southern governors and chieftains in the PDP underrated by their northern counterparts? Governor Ifeanyi Okowa did not go down well with his colleagues in the South?

When Atiku unveiled Okowa as running mate, the former Vice President said he had picked a presidential material. Is that remark not infuriating to other chieftains from the South, particularly Wike, who may have misunderstood the initial discussions with him as a sort of assurance?

The grouse of the Rivers State governor and his Oyo and Abia counterparts – Seyi Makinde and Ikpeazu – is that the constitution and tradition of the PDP stipulate that whenever the presidential standard bearer is from a bloc region, the national chairman must come from another region.

Elder statesman Ayu, a founding chieftain of the PDP, who said he was present at the formative stage of the party when Wike, Makinde, Okezie and Enugu State Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi were still kids, is conversant with the time-tested party convention and recruitment process.

The eminent scholar and three-time minister had the tradition in mind when he promised to vacate the position of chairman, if a candidate was picked from the North.

The crux of the matter is that Ayu has refused to keep his promise to step down, despite persistent calls on him to honour his promise.

Based on the violation of the party culture of equity and justice, Wike has found justification for demarketing Atiku, saying that if a person cannot obey the constitution of his party, he may not be able to defend the constitution of the country after assuming political control.

The agreement, which Wike and his group continue to emphasise, is that there should be a change of party leadership. This is a great lesson. Politicians may have to take a clue from the current discord and desist from making promises that will hunt them in the future.

Ayu, it could be said, managed to survive the heat during the NEC meeting. A vote of confidence was passed on him. But, if PDP could reflect deeply, the party should have known that a 2014/2015 pattern of dissension is gradually emerging. Unless the party puts its house in order, perilous times are around the corner for it.

The PDP was rocked by in-fighting and defections in 2015. It also failed to achieve its vision of ruling for the next 60 years. The children of 1999 are now challenging their prodigal fathers to a duel. Atiku needs a new style, weapon and strategy to engage the troublesome younger elements who are insisting on principle. At this time, the PDP cannot afford a major defection. It is risky.

But if Ayu surrenders, it may not be the end of the matter. A mini-convention for the choice of a new chairman before the general election is not feasible. If he is succeeded by the deputy national chairman from the North, it will not meet the expectation of the Southern agitators. The feud will escalate.

Yet, if Ayu is succeeded by the deputy national chairman from the South, Taofeek Arapaja, who is the candidate of Governor Makinde and a supporter of Wike, it means intra-party power has shifted to the children who were not privy to the establishment of the PDP in 1998/1999.

At a time the PDP should be on the firing line, it is dissipating much energy on crisis, an ill-will that blows none of its gladiators any good.

Genuine reconciliation, based on the principle of concessions, consensus, give and take, and sacrifice, is required in the PDP for the party to frontally confront the 2023 challenge.

In six months, Ibrahim Shekarau, former governor of Kano State and senator representing Kano Central District, has traversed three political parties. Can the vocal politician be a role model in political consistency?

In April 2022, he was a key leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Northwest state. In June, he defected to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). During the week, he left the NNPP for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which he dumped around 2019.

The former governor is emulating the man he has now chosen to collaborate with, Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the main opposition party, and his erstwhile running mate, Peter Obi. What matters in the Nigerian politics of defection is not principle, but the pursuit of personal interest.

Atiku had bidden the PDP farewell in 2007. He took refuge in the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). Ahead of the 2011 polls, the former Vice President quit the ACN, which offered him the platform to run. In the PDP, he was defeated at the presidential primary by President Goodluck Jonathan. The goal of defection was not fulfilled. Describing the Jonathan administration as clueless, Atiku joined forces with the APC in 2014. But, he could not secure the presidential ticket. It was won by Muhammadu Buhari, who later won the presidential election.

Ahead of 2019 electioneering, he retraced his steps to the PDP. He got the ticket. He ran. But, he could not lift the trophy. The greatest achievement of Atiku in recent times is that in the last four years, he has not defected to another party.

Shekarau also shares the same traits of impatience and anger with Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra State and presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP). Obi, a one-time banker, became governor on the platform of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), led by the late Biafran leader, Chief Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu. After serving for eight years, he left the APGA for the PDP. Curiously, he was picked as running mate by Atiku in 2019. But, three years later, he abandoned PDP and opted for LP.

Politically speaking, Shekarau had a beautiful beginning. He had triumphed over tyranny and adversity, which served as a bridge between his illustrious civil service career and foray into politics. As a head teacher, he was an activist fighting for the welfare of his colleagues in the All Nigeria Confederation of Principals of Secondary Schools (ANCOPS). He was a leader of the state and national chapters. When he crossed to the civil service, he held responsible positions, crowning it all with the position of a permanent secretary.

Read Also: Why I returned to PDP, by Shekarau

Shekarau defeated an incumbent governor, Rabiu Kwankwanso, in 2023. He ran on the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). The feat was significant. But more remarkable was his re-election in 2007. He broke the second term jinx, becoming the first Kano governor to spend eight years in office.

In 2011, Shekarau defeated Muhammadu Buhari during the ANPP presidential primary. Nigerians were impressed by his oratory skills. But it was evident at that time that he lacked the clout and structure to win the presidential poll. After vacating office, it appeared that he could not exert the same influence.

In 2015, he was a chieftain of APC. But, he loathed cohabiting with Kwankwanso in the same fold. Despite all entreaties, he went to the PDP. President Jonathan hurriedly made him Minister of Education to keep him in the party. Later, he returned to APC, became a senator and when he failed to get a return ticket, he opted for the NNPP. Although he got the NNPP senatorial ticket, he was not satisfied. His foray into the NNPP was strange. He was fond of running away from Kwankwanso. Yet, he agreed to briefly cohabit with Kwankwanso, the main issue in the NNPP. The experience, he said, was not palatable as he claimed that his supporters were not accommodated.

His defection was driven by the desire for relevance and survival in the slippery political field. He may still defect from the PDP, if there is no adequate political protection for his supporters.

The current dispensation marks the total collapse of ideological culture. Except the now weakened Alliance for Democracy (AD), political parties had moved away from ideological pursuits. Their arrowheads are only united by the pursuit of power, with the parties merely serving as their vehicles.

What is the political ideology of Shekarau who can afford to be in three parties in the spate of three months? Politicians are now changing allegiances with the speed of lightening. Self-interest and the battle for survival are projected over the collective interest of the party.

Many politicians cannot be said to have fared better than Shekarau in ideological consistency. The Fourth Republic is replete with accounts of serial defections, with the defectors living up to the dictum: there is no permanent friend or foe in politics, only permanent interest. Apart from Atiku, Senator Uche Ekwunife had traversed APGA, PDP and APC in the course of her political career. From being a sympathiser of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), former Senate President Bukola Saraki moved to the PDP, and later APC, and later returned to the PDP. Also, Sokoto State Governor Waziri Tambuwal dumped the PDP for APC and he later returned to the PDP.

In mature democracies, defections are rare and infrequent, owing to the entrenchment of ideological politics driven more by national interest rather than personal interest. Generally, defections in Nigeria are premised on five factors: the poverty of ideology, personal interest and ambitions, division in the party, lack of internal democracy in political parties and weakness of crisis resolution mechanism. The sixth factor should be the greed or avarice of the political class.

Reflecting on the impact of ambition and personal interest, Hilke Rebenstorf, in his work, titled: Political Interest: Its Meaning and General Development, described political interest as the most towering motivation for political participation in a democratic setting. The subsisting interest could provoke loyalty and prepare an individual towards the rigour of politicking because power is not served a la carte.

Interest is also the baseline for identifying with the party and sustenance of commitment to a platform. The implication is that waning interest in a party may be a prelude to defection.

Also, interest is the foundation of ambition and the quest for power at any level. Ambition connotes an intention to engage in competition and necessary intra-party conflicts and inter-party antagonism. Therefore, when it appears that candidates are imposed, the process becomes less competitive and injurious to ambitious politicians, especially in the absence of a consensus climate.

The defence of personal interest is at a cost to group interest. But politicians in Nigeria usually hold on to their interests because many of them perceive politics as an occupation, and not a vocation. They embrace politics as an avenue for private accumulation of wealth, influence and affluence, instead of taking it as an opportunity for diligent service to the community, state and country.

Political parties usually have agenda for transforming society. It may be the offshoot of their ideology, beliefs, vision, mission and goals. Ideology is critical. Since a political party is an association of like-minds who are united by similarity of ideas, individual members are expected to demonstrate loyalty and commit ment to the ideology of the party and play significant role in its espousal.

Ideology is a compass; it gives direction and encourages ideologues to produce strategies for implementation of manifestos. Ideology is not an end in itself; it is a means to an end.

Ordinarily, manifestos should derive from the ideological learning. This means that an ideology is a distinguishing and predictable feature of the party system. Conflicts and conflict resolutions are essential features of party system. Disagreements among chieftains may lead to polarisation, fragmentation, division and factionalisation of parties. Politics of exclusion and monopolisation of party power by few individuals in the party may lead to resentment, bitterness and defection.

Indeed, many political parties lack the capacity to achieve internal cohesion, due to the weakness of crisis resolution mechanism, which permits the aggrieved to ventilate their grievances and attract assurance about political security within the organisation. A major source of division and protracted crisis is the lack of transparency in the internal processes of political parties, including congresses, nomination and distribution of rewards for membership.

Party primaries, congresses and conventions are usually rancorous, leading to post-primary crises and a floodgate of litigations. Also, the dictatorship of party leadership may not engender trust. Party leadership is usually transformed into a conclave of few leaders whose activities may alienate members, or certain blocs within the party, based on internal squabble for the control of party machinery, promotion of divisive caucus interest and misuse of party apparatus and resources. The leadership of a political party is very critical to how it is shaped, how it can withstand destabilisation tendency and how it can foster party supremacy and discipline.

Judging by the Nigerian experience, a key element of defection is the bandwagon effect. The defection of a party’s big wig is accompanied by a seeming mass defection of members who belong to his caucus or those who see him as a sort of rallying point. Therefore, many defectors can hardly comprehend the motivation for defection beyond the withdrawal of party chieftains they adore.

But defection is a fundamental political right, that is, the right to associate and dissociate at will. When politicians defect, they contribute to the project of crippling their former parties and whipping public sentiments. When they retrace their steps, they rationalise their return. The only solution is the adoption of a strong two-party system with clear-cut ideological delineation, and a political class that is erected on the pillar of public morality and discipline.

If these features were in place in a wide political field like Nigeria, defections would reduce to the barest minimum among political actors, like Shekarau, and their supporters would be spared the frequent journeys across conflicting political interests their leaders take them through each time they cannot get what they want from one party or the other.

Is the National Electoral Offences Commission desirable or not? Will it fast-track the trial of electoral offenders? Will the proposed commission reduce electoral malpractices and enhance the quality of elections in the country?

These questions are critical to the resolution of the controversy triggered by the proposal for the setting up of a special commission for the prosecution of suspected electoral pirates and establishment of special courts for the trial of election riggers.

But opinions are divided on the issue. Taking an exception to such a commission, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) pointed out that its establishment would amount to a duplication of functions, unnecessary expansion of federal bureaucracy and soaring cost of governance.

To the EFCC, government should strengthen the existing security agencies to tackle crimes, including electoral infractions.

The anti-graft agency explained that electoral offences are already covered under the penal and criminal codes, the Independent Corrupt Practices and other Related Offences Act (2000) and the EFCC Act, 2004. It further argued that there is no need to create an agency solely for the purpose of investigating and prosecuting electoral offences because the electoral process is seasonal in nature; elections are held once in four years in Nigeria.

But the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) appears to have a more persuasive and convincing arguments. Its chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, said the proposed electoral commission should be viewed as an exception, stressing that while there are other security agencies that deal with economic and financial crimes, nobody, in good conscience, thought that it was unnecessary to establish the anti-corruption agencies.

Yakubu emphasised that INEC is incapacitated to prosecute electoral offenders because it is currently overburdened with other responsibilities.

Also, the electoral body has no capacity to arrest offenders or conduct investigations that could lead to successful prosecution of high-profile offenders.

To buttress his point, Yakubu said since the 2015 general election, 125 cases of electoral offences were filed in various courts out of which 60 convictions have been secured so far, including the most recent one in Akwa Ibom State.

Periodic elections are core elements of democracy. But electioneering creates a nightmare in Nigeria. Instead of being a festival of choice, it has become a national burden of uncertainties. Anxiety has always enveloped the polity, ahead of the general election.

The polity is heated up as desperate politicians make highly inflammable statements. They threaten fire and brimstone. It is usually a do-or-die situation for them. Personal interests tend to override the push for sanctity of the ballot box and the quest for collective survival.

It is because the system has bred political barons and manipulators who have always refused to play by the rules. To worsen the situation, most of the political gadflies only get counter-castigations from rival politicians. No serious punitive deterrence is in place to put such leaders in the cooler and make them pay severely for their misconducts.

The dimensions of irregularities are confounding. Since elections are very expensive, no candidate wants to lose because of the heavy investment in the contest for power. The reigning trick now is vote-buying and selling.

During the presidential primaries, and the recent Ekiti and Osun polls, EFCC had to deploy its men to fish out unscrupulous elements alleged to be involved in vote trading.

The scenario creates a credibility crisis for the ballot box and, indeed, the entire democratic process. It also creates the impression in the international community that government that is elected swims in the pool of legitimacy crisis.

As recently observed by House of Representatives Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila, electoral crimes lead to low quality and corrupt political leadership. They also help election riggers and offenders to take control of governments against the democratic will of the electorate.

Rigging has other consequences. It can trigger civil disturbances and violence, which threaten peace and security.

Ordinarily, a discredited poll is a panacea for violence. In earlier dispensations, rigging and other forms of malpractices or irregularities provoked popular unrest. In the defunct Western Region, malpractices were perceived as a colossal rebellion against the people. It led to burning of houses and mass killings in the First Republic. It provoked the infamous “Wet E” (Wet It or Burn It Down) in the region. Hundreds of lives were cut down in spontaneous reaction to rigging. Many properties also became rubble in that era of tempestuous politicking. The political unrest was repeated in the Southwest states of Oyo and Ondo in the Second Republic.

The only time rigging was kept at bay was during the aborted Third Republic when Nigeria practised a two-party system.

In this Fourth Republic, elections have become more problematic. Cultists who were armed with sophisticated weapons beyond the reach of the police were drafted to create panic, molest voters, scare away the electorate, invade polling booths, inflict pains, maim and kill in the interest of the highest bidder and in expectation of a fat reward for unleashing terror.

Floodgates of litigations trailed the 2007 electoral foul play. A former President, the late Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, acknowledged that the presidential poll was severely flawed. But the flaw was injected into all the elections of that year to the extent that most of the governors later went to court to seek redress for being rigged out. The ugly development was the baseline for the setting up of the Uwais Panel on Electoral Reforms.

The harassment of the opposition by security agencies characterised the out-of-season 2014 and 2018 elections in Osun and Ekiti. It was alleged that police and other security agents took sides.

INEC has a duty to organise the elections without compromising ethics and sacrificing the rules of the game on the altar of partisanship. Stakeholders, especially leading actors, also have a role to play in ensuring a hitch-free exercise.

Malpractices are either committed individually or jointly. They are planned ahead of the contest. They are not limited to the general election. Primaries are also susceptible to irregularities. Perpetrators usually include voters, candidates, party leaders, supporters, townspeople and other interest groups.

Rigging with precision can be accomplished by those holding the levers of power and authority. In the past, the fear of federal might was the beginning of wisdom.

Aiding and abetting by security agencies can contribute to the subversion of the procedure. Polling staff and electoral officers who are unable to resist bribery and other forms of graft can assist in undermining the popular will of the people. The greatest onslaught against the ballot box can come from an unpopular government bent on retaining power.

The gradual deployment of technology, particularly the electronic transmission of poll results, may have reduced electoral fraud and rekindled public confidence in the electoral system. It may have boosted the prospects of transparent and credible exercise. But, it is not enough. Many loopholes still exist. More pitfalls should be avoided.

The proposed Bill is targeting many electoral vices. The first is thuggery, which appears more ubiquitous than other malpractices. It is a lucrative venture. Jobless, vulnerable youths accept to become willing tools in the hands of unscrupulous politicians who supply arms and ammunitions. Educated thugs now comple ment the efforts of motor park louts in wreaking havoc. Rich politicians who keep their children in good schools abroad recruit the children of the poor for nefarious activities and as sacrificial lambs.

Ballot stuffing and falsification of results were common in the past. Due to surveillance by the voting public and influence of the social media, ballot snatching or hijack has also reduced.

Despite the improvement in the conduct of elections, some party agents still dispute results tendered at the final collation centres. They cite discrepancies in results. It is noteworthy that some polling workers and highly placed electoral officers have been prosecuted and jailed to serve as deterrent to others. It is an effective way of sanitising and restoring the dignity of the electoral process.

Other electoral offences include: double registration, unlawful possession of voter’s cards, selling and buying of voter’s cards, giving false information while applying for registration, hindering voters from casting ballots, impersonating a registration official, forgery and illegal registration.

Others are: defacing a nomination paper, signing a nomination paper as a result form, registration as a candidate in more than one constituency at the same time, disorderly behaviours at political meetings, possession of offensive weapons, improper use or transfer of voter’s card, voting when not qualified, interfering with a voter casting his ballot, canvassing for votes on Election Day, violation of campaign timetable ad announcement and publication of fake results.

It is incumbent on INEC to build on the recent successes recorded in Ekiti and Osun elections and sustain its improved operations. Poorly organised elections are usually counterproductive. The contests should not be characterised by the late arrival of electoral officers and polling materials, shortage of ballot boxes, shoddy accreditation of voters and malfunctioning of card readers and divers.

Rural coastal areas pose some challenges. These include the deployment of logistics. In the past, boat drivers in Edo disappointed INEC. It was discovered that while on the sensitive electoral duty, they got drunk. Besides, it was said that dubious figures were returned by some of the coastal areas.

Many Nigerians are anticipating the passage of the Electoral Offences Commission Bill into law. But, before its passage, INEC should be ready to invoke the various provisions in the constitution and other laws against erring voters, INEC workers and ad hoc officials, and security agents.

If votes will not count, voters will be discouraged. This could lead to apathy. Also, when elections are rigged, public confidence is diminished. Besides, the contest often shifts from the ballot box to the court. Consequently, the poll becomes somehow inconclusive. The candidates are saddled with the additional cost of protracted litigation. There is suspense. A winner may even lose to legal technicality in the court.

There is no better effective method of curbing electoral fraud than the speedy trial of offenders in a special court where they earn jail terms and fines for indulging in unpatriotic activities of subverting electoral democracy.

Only the guilty would be afraid.