The Nation Newspaper

Category: Sunday

  • Tough choices before ASUU

    Tough choices before ASUU

    As political parties press on towards the 2023 polls, not many issues will assume as much prominence as the suspended Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) eight-month strike. While the strike lasted, it threatened to overshadow the coming polls, particularly the presidential election, because its lack of resolution was already being interpreted as a reflection of either the incompetence or gross insensitivity of the All Progressives Congress (APC). When the strike was finally suspended after the intervention and negotiations driven by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, there was relief all round.

    However, the strike ‘ended’ in a hail of legal obfuscations, balkanisation of university and medical unions, and enormous pressures brought to bear upon the university teachers. But other than the assurances of Hon Gbajabiamila who insisted on being taken for his word, and respect for the rule of law since the courts had ruled against the union, there were no definitive agreements underpinning the cessation of strike. There was a sense in which, flowing from Hon Gbajabimila’s intervention, it was understood that on resumption of work, ASUU members would be paid half of their salary arrears, and the other half paid before December. There was no indication the union would be paid half of October salary, not talk of prorating the salary, or abandoning the previous seven months pay on the excuse that the teachers did not work.

    When the October salaries were paid, it turned out that the teachers got half-pay, or as the Labour minister, Chris Ngige, said tongue-in-cheek, prorated salary. It was clear that Dr Ngige, who malevolently inspired the balkanisation of ASUU shortly before the strike was suspended, felt humiliated that an agreement of sorts had been reached between the legislature and the unions, while his ministry became a spectator. Cynically, the minister insisted he did not direct the Finance ministry to pay half salary, but only informed the relevant authorities, consequent upon the advice of the Education ministry and education inspectors in tertiary institutions, that ASUU resumed work on such and such a date.

    There was no doubt before the strike was suspended that Dr Ngige had personalised the ASUU fight. He resented the teachers’ obduracy, and he took the disagreement personally as a clash of wills which he was determined to win. In his mind, he no longer saw the issue as a national problem needing a lot of give-and-take in order to get the best for the country, but as a challenge to his ministerial power. He also simply ignored the government’s longstanding disrespect for agreements reached with the union since 2009, a disrespect he did not think had proved costly, provocative and disruptive. Worse, citing some arcane International Labour Organisation (ILO) rules and regulations, he also sidelined the Education ministry. Much worse is the fact that somehow he got the presidency to back his retrogressive policy of ‘penalising’ the teachers for the strike.

    But Dr Ngige is not standing for elections, nor is he the president. Some stakeholders recognised that the strike and the obstinacy of the administration had political and electoral implications and did their best to get it resolved. The resolutions were not perfect, indeed were tentative and vague, with Hon Gbajabiamila even seeming to eat his word, but they prepared the groundwork for fuller and more definitive resolutions. Nigerians expected that an elected government in the middle of campaigns to retain power would be more conciliatory. But they overestimate the administration. Feigning patriotism and pretending to save tertiary education, Dr Ngige and the government have, however, worsened the crisis. ASUU has been caught between and betwixt, and the students, the youths whose future the administration treats with such crass levity, will suffer enormous losses.

    The administration has not put forward a counterproposal to reform education, nor has it shown concern that its attitude to the whole crisis could prove politically costly. It will be impossible for them to prove that they are not sabotaging themselves or preparing grounds for voter backlash. It is not to their credit that the combative Dr Ngige had been given ample room to personalise the ASUU fight. Why the Federal Executive Council has been reticent over this matter is inexplicable. Do they associate with the galling determination of the Labour ministry to stymie the future of the youths?

    Read Also: Aftermath of ASUU strike: ‘We ‘ll cover up lost grounds’

    Hon Gbajabiamila may already feel frustrated that the good work he and his team had done to rekindle hope among youths and restore confidence in government is being thrown to the dogs. He will of course do his best to salvage the tentative agreement he reached, on trust, with ASUU, even though his considerable equivocations indicate the appalling resistance he is meeting at the presidency. He has invested too much of his person and reputation in the deal to stand idly by as Dr Ngige and other retrogressive and reactionary politicians and bureaucrats sabotage the agreement. The Labour minister is a bitter man, and the administration itself is shockingly unable to grasp the enormity of the crisis and its consequence for Nigerian youths.

    Whether the administration likes it or not, the ASUU crisis will become an issue in the campaigns, and sometime in the future, the president will be asked whether it makes sense to blame any other person, including ASUU, for allowing the strike to last for so long, and then finally sabotaging the resolution. It is not clear what his answers will be, or whether those answers will be convincing, but analysts and interviewers will wonder why the administration failed to recognise that in the end the buck stops at the president’s table. Historians will not write that ASUU called out a strike; they will write that the Muhammadu Buhari administration did not have an education programme, and when university teachers nudged him in the right direction, also write that he seemed to trifle with the crisis. They will write that his administration, not even the cantankerous Dr Ngige whose raison d’être seems to be to fight unions, stood arms akimbo as doctors and nurses emigrated in droves from Nigeria, leaving the country’s healthcare sector in tatters.

    If federal ministers will not stir themselves to put Dr Ngige in his place and coax the distracted president into doing what is right for education and the youths, ensuring that both understand that this is not a battle of wills, then Hon Gbajabiamila and his team, perhaps with less equivocation this time, should work assiduously to salvage the deal. The team should not pull punches in directly accusing the opinionated minister. There is little ASUU can do between now and the end of the administration next May. Their best hope is not in embarking on constant battles with the administration, any administration, as indeed they have indicated; their best hope is to ensure that the next administration will be one that earnestly cares about education, one which will not allow a petty-minded and pugnacious minister to hold everybody hostage.

     

    Buhari swears on legacies

    In his address to members of the Legislative Mentorship Initiative (LMI) who paid a learning visit to the State House in Abuja, Chief of Staff to the president, Ibrahim Gambari, remarked that President Muhammadu Buhari would leave legacies of infrastructural development and free and fair polls, among other achievements. Prof. Gambari represented the president, and obviously had the authority to quote him, especially given the fact that the president had repeatedly alluded to those legacies.

    It may be significant in these parts for an outgoing president to leave a legacy of credible elections, seeing how important it is for the consolidation of democracy, but, really, free and fair polls should be taken for granted, and should hardly qualify for a legacy. And as for infrastructural development, while President Buhari has done enormous work in that sector, the country will wonder at what cost.

    Finally, the professor also spoke glowingly and proudly of Nigeria’s population figure which is projected in 2050 to be the third highest in the world, after China and India. How he did not sound disturbed by that projection is difficult to explain. With the current land mass, a significant part of which has become arid, thereby putting migratory and disruptive pressures on the rest of the country, Nigeria will in actual fact become a pressure pot, an oven of social, economic and political discontent and disturbances. Without a corresponding action to limit population growth and impose innovative and stabilising management of politics and the economy, it would be chasing shadows to talk of one great and indivisible country. Perhaps the professor knew these pitfalls but chose to gloss over them.

  • PDP at a loss

    PDP at a loss

    Despite spending 16 unbroken years in office, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has forgotten how to win elections. Its first loss to the neophyte but feisty All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015 shocked the party to its marrow. Losing again in 2019, despite the ruling party becoming conceited and tardy in executing its discordant policies, altered the opposition party’s mindset and sucked its confidence. Nearly eight years after those losses, the PDP seems more than ever at a loss what next it should do and how to take the fight to the APC. They were warned. Now, instead of retracing their steps and finding ways to worm themselves into the hearts of the electorate, PDP leaders, many of them political nomads and revisionists, are taking refuge in methods that degrade their logic and demean their image.

    Last week, as a result of a Federal High Court judgement in September that declared all the actions taken by Governor Mai Mala Buni, one-time ad hoc chairman of the APC, illegal, the PDP has gone to court to get the ruling party disqualified from the 2023 race. Firstly, there is no indication the APC would fail to upturn the judgement on appeal. Secondly, there is also no indication that legal extrapolations can void the election of the APC chairman Abdullahi Adamu and the primaries his executive committee superintended. Mystified by the bottlenecks it has encountered since gifting the presidential ticket to former vice president Atiku Abubakar in May, and frustrated that the party and its presidential campaign had made little headway in persuading the electorate to swoon over PDP candidates and the party as a whole, they have resorted to erecting multiple hurdles in the path of their opponents, the ruling, and arguably more purposeful, APC.

    If it has occurred to the PDP that it is making heavy weather of the 2023 campaigns, its leaders have not shown it. They may be Spartan in their endurance of pain, but there is no doubt that their methods betray both the desperation and anguish they have begun to experience. Given the nature and dynamics of Nigerian jurisprudence, the PDP is unlikely to concoct any judicial sleight of hand against the APC. They won’t even be able to slow the ruling party down. If the courts find that they had overreached themselves in delivering certain judgements, which interested parties might want to exploit, why, they still possess enough juridical creativity to wipe the grin off the faces of interloping petitioners. It is in fact more likely that the PDP is merely clutching at straws to slow and distract the party by instigating stories the media would eagerly exploit to harry the APC. Awarding exemplary costs in case of litigious mishaps should be able to discourage the legal adventures political parties and other individuals periodically embark on, sometimes just for the heck of it.

    The PDP is lashing out at the APC in the courts. But its real animus is against some of its own members, some of whom have proved enormously fractious and intransigent. The party’s confusion, surprisingly, is not masterminded by the ruling party or any other co-contestant in the 2023 race. The problem is from within, and that problem is gnawing at its political innards in a way that is insidious and cancerous. Insidious because it began almost harmlessly years ago when many first-generation leaders of the party abandoned the PDP for other excursions, leaving the party to be sustained by its second-generation leaders who did and probably still do not share the ideological underpinnings of the party. Returning years later to meet a considerably weakened party that nevertheless still displayed some spunk, the oldies muscled their way in and forcefully claimed the commanding heights of the party. The ensuing fracture was naturally seismic, leading to ruptures they have been unable to manage with any dexterity.

    The main implication of the rupture is that of the 13 governors left in the PDP, five are working against the presidential ambition of Candidate Atiku Abubakar. The five are Nyesom Wike of Rivers, Samuel Ortom of Benue, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia, and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu. The five may not necessarily be lying on the same bed facing the same way, but citing irreconcilable differences with the structure of the party’s north-centric leadership, they have announced themselves unalterably opposed to the ambition of Alhaji Atiku. Their main grouse was the refusal of party chairman Iyorchia Ayu to relinquish his position for the South, but it was not always clear that the fracture within the party did not predate the Ayu snafu. Senator Ayu himself is implacable. Even if he could not be forced to resign, should his altruism, if indeed he had any, not make him think of and act in the overriding interest of the party?

    The last one month has, however, shown that Sen Ayu is the least of the problems of the PDP. The biggest problem of the main opposition party is the PDP presidential candidate’s utter lack of principles, for in the last six or more weeks he has shown just how destitute of political strategy he is. Apart from brazenly dishonouring his promises as soon as he makes them, he does not even appear to understand that he needs to pull his chestnuts from the fire consuming his presidential ambition, an ambition he had labored for decades to keep aglow, an ambition whose fire remains incandescently disproportionate to his methods and whatever sacrifice he claims to have made. Last week, on the Voice of America (VOA) Hausa Service, he declared in response to a question on the Ayu-Wike conundrum that it was irresoluble and that in any case he had since moved on. Days later, he began his idiosyncratic genuflection, suggesting that perhaps something could still be done.

    Well, perhaps having heard what Alhaji Atiku said on VOA, and having also been taunted by the undignified remarks Sen Ayu directed against the Famous Five, the ‘rebels’ have in turn finally made up their minds to seek other shelters. But here precisely is their dilemma. Nigeria’s political exigencies make it impossible for all the five to seek one shelter, though they are bonded together by a common antipathy for the injustices enacted by their party. They will help one another, and will keep their friendship and camaraderie intact, but they may end up backing different presidential horses. Of the five, only Mr Makinde is up for re-election. Even if he wants, he still cannot back Peter Obi of the LP, because his people will have none of it. Mr Wike is the most assertive and recalcitrant, but probably also the most politically astute and daring. He will not back a losing horse in Mr Obi. Messrs Ugwuanyi and Ikpeazu, because of the ethnic dynamics of the 2023 poll, will feign to back Mr Obi, but in reality, they will be non-committal.

    That leaves Mr Ortom high and dry, perched dangerously as it were on the horns of a dilemma. No matter how hard he tries, the 2023 presidential poll will not be about religion, except of course President Muhammadu Buhari goofs badly, as he is wont, and mishandles the smouldering ASUU crisis on the instigation of the relentless meddler and politically dead Chris Ngige. Mr Ortom has a senatorial race to prosecute, and Sen Ayu, a fellow Benuean, snapping at his heels. He may end up just focusing on his own race and letting every other thing go hang. The ultimate loser will of course be the PDP and Alhaji Atiku, both for different reasons: the party for its failure to renew itself, and the candidate for his indecision and lack of principles. It is an understatement that the PDP is at a loss.

     

    Adebanjo and Fasoranti: storm in a teacup

    It is unlikely that the disagreement between the two nonagenarians leading the Yoruba socio-political and cultural organization, Afenifere, qualifies to be described as a leadership tussle. Last Sunday in Akure, the 96-year-old Reuben Fasoranti, leading scores of credible Yoruba leaders, endorsed the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for the 2023 presidential election. The endorsement was open and unanimous, and was festooned with prayers. Earlier in September, however, 94-year-old Ayo Adebanjo, acting leader of Afenifere, endorsed Labour Party’s Peter Obi for the same office, insisting that for equity and justice, it was the turn of the Southeast to produce the Nigerian president. There was no indication of how the Pa Adebanjo endorsement was reached, nor were the criteria for the endorsement stated other than that it was the turn of the Southeast. No debates, no public sitting, no Yoruba consensus.

    Consequent upon the two endorsements by what now seem like Afenifere factions, the media has helped to amplify the disagreement and label it a leadership tussle. Complete with interviews and press statements, including the Akure endorsement communiqué, the media has had a field day disseminating facts and figures about the disagreement between the two leaders. First, Pa Fasoranti was quoted as saying he had reclaimed the leadership of the group, and subsequent meetings of the Afenifere would be held in Akure. Then a few days after, he was reported to have recanted. He also reportedly acknowledged that Pa Adebanjo still led the group but insisted that Asiwaju Tinubu had been endorsed because he is competent to lead Nigeria and has the track record. The Adebanjo camp insisted Pa Fasoranti stepped down some two years ago and wrote a letter to that effect. Even though the Adebanjo camp said nothing about why Pa Fasoranti stepped down, it was widely speculated at the time that he did so because he had become lethargic. However, it was also speculated that apart from the enervating effect of his daughter’s killing by herdsmen, Pa Fasoranti was also frustrated with the abrasive style of Pa Adebanjo, particularly his inexplicable endorsement of Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, despite the then president’s ostracism of the Yoruba, and Atiku Abubakar in 2019, despite the then candidate’s considerable waffling over Fulanisation.

    Sensing news that could sell their papers or increase their broadcast ratings and social media hits, the media has plunged into the disagreement and ravenously fed on it. But alarmed, some Yoruba leaders have taken it upon themselves to raise a contact group to mediate between the two squabbling nonagenarians. They needn’t bother. The animus between the Adebanjo camp and Asiwaju Tunibu, despite all attempts to keep the discord civil, is implacable. Pa Adebanjo has endorsed Mr Obi, whether due process was observed or not. He is unlikely to recant before the election. The endorsement has neither moral nor electoral value anyway; and Pa Adebanjo might, at best, restrain himself from openly campaigning for Mr Obi in the media. But he won’t back down. The Akure endorsement, on the other hand, has moral and electoral value: the Southwest has an instinctive feel of Asiwaju Tinubu’s competence and likelihood of winning, having built bridges across the nation and cobbled enduring relationships and party structures. Unlike Mr Obi who does not stand a chance of winning, the APC candidate is in pole position to win. The Akure meeting was thus both pragmatic and calculatingly frugal in backing a winning horse and not frittering political capital.

    Though the media has fed voluminously on the essentially geopolitical and ideological spat between the two Yoruba leaders, newsmen and headline writers will not be able to drive the squabble beyond a few weeks. It is not the kind of squabble that lasts. It is specious and superficial. Both the Fasoranti and Adebanjo groups, despite belonging to the same organisation, reserve the right to back anyone they please, but must carry their camps along. It would have been neater to back just one horse, but as stated earlier, it is only the Akure endorsement that has any meaning. That meeting attracted heavyweights of the Southwest. The Adebanjo group, no matter how ingeniously it pretends, cannot muster such a crowd, not to talk of people of calibre. No matter the intensity of the contact group’s shuttle diplomacy, they will be unable to produce a meeting of minds on the endorsement subject. They in fact don’t need to. The Southwest, like other regions in the country, has sensed where the pendulum is swinging. They can rationalise that swing, and they sense that it meets their underlying political belief, which they dub progressive, and that it also accords with their calculations about what needs to be done with Nigeria and who best fits the bill to do it. The Southwest, like the other regions, is fairly despondent about producing knowledgeable leaders for Nigeria. For once, as the Yoruba leaders chorused in Akure, they sensed that Asiwaju Tinubu, much more than Mr Obi or Alhaji Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), can do the magic. For them, there will be no buyer’s remorse.

    If the media had not dignified the spat with tons of newsprint and broadcast hours, the disagreement between the two nonagenarians would be precisely the perfect storm in a teacup. But despite the media’s best efforts, the storm will dissipate soon, the discord will remain insoluble, and the two positions will harden. It is meaningless abusing either group, for one is inherently superior to the other, by reason of the logic that underpinned its conclusions. Both positions were unlikely attained by monetary suasion; they were ideologically prompted, with the Akure meeting more progressive, and the Adebanjo camp more conservative and eclectic.

     

    Xi Jinping gets third term

    Judged by GDP growth rate since 2013 when he assumed office, President Xi Jinping of China has been an unremarkable leader. Until 2021, when he achieved GDP growth of 8.11 percent, the figure had consistently fallen from 7.77 percent in 2013 until it reached a nadir of 2.24 percent in 2020, the year of Covid-19. His affinity for strategy, rather than principle, saw him rise through the Chinese Communist Party ranks until he assumed leadership in 2013, won re-election in 2017, abolished term limits in 2018, and has now secured a historic and unprecedented third term of five years, in short a life presidency. The sixth Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping’s openness policy, he is set to become as influential as the country’s founding father, Mao Zedong.

    President Xi treats human rights and Western-style democracy contemptuously. He believes in party supremacy, with the CCP boasting a membership in excess of 85 million, and the subordination of business to party. Might this clear subordination explain the low GDP performance since he assumed office, on the average seven percent, in contrast to nine percent since 1978, which sometimes rose to 12 percent or even 14 percent?

    The troubling part is not that President Xi has probably reached a point of diminishing return, going, especially, by his pigheaded zero Covid policy, but his shortsighted annulment of term limits, and rejection of collective leadership and responsibility in favour of dictatorship. The stability and renewal that underpinned high growth rates since 1978 have virtually been stamped out. His election for a third term has seen him stack the leadership team, the Political Bureau Standing Committee, with his allies. The tight rein Chinese leaders have exercised over politics, and under President Xi, over business, has probably helped China to avoid the fate of Russia and other communist countries. But whether that tight control and elimination of term limits can survive sustained economic downturn remains to be seen. Last year’s growth rate has climbed back up from a dismal 2.24 percent to 8.11 percent. To retain his grip, President Xi will hope that the economic miracle that lifted more than 800m Chinese out of poverty since 1978 will endure for much longer.

  • 2023: Predicting presidential pendulum? (Part 1)

    2023: Predicting presidential pendulum? (Part 1)

    “Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.” (Fitch, a leading global rating company) – Nation, 29th October 2022.

    There was a small town. In this community, there were two friends. They were born and bred in that town and both from the same royal family. There was a day an oracle man came visiting the town and the duo had an uncommon encounter with this supernatural being. It was during this encounter that one of them was told that he would be crowned king in the same community after the demise of the incumbent king while the other friend would end up being a servant and not be anywhere near the throne even though born as a prince from the same ruling house. The one pronounced by the oracle as a king-in-waiting began to live wantonly and recklessly. The other that received the prophecy of servitude decided to leave for another town. On arrival at the new community, he was determined to prove the oracle wrong by embarking on farming. He cultivated a large acreage of land annually. This man, within a few years, became prosperous and famous within and around his community of residence. Unknown to this man, there was the custom of the town to enthrone someone who was not an indigene but from a royal family as their king. However, the man to be appointed apart from having untainted character must be prosperous. He met all the criteria. Eventually, the one that was initially predicted to live and die in servitude was crowned king while his friend that had the prophecy of kingship ended up as a derelict and unfit for the throne!

    Three Horse Race

    In early September 2022, there was a poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited. In that poll, Mr. Peter Obi was projected to lead the presidential race of 2023 by 21% of votes in the polls. However, when the synopsis of the surveys was dissected, there was a palpable genuine ground to doubt its veracity. Why? People that were undecided and refused to partake in the poll were put at 32% and 15% respectively. Altogether, this constitutes 47% of people surveyed. Can one really conclude based on this seemingly skewed or slanted submission? Moreover, going by the records, can one really rely on the result of any poll conducted by NOI taking into cognizance past polls relating to elections in Nigeria? Definitely, this columnist as a researcher will take such a result with a pinch of salt!

    On the heels of the NOI poll came the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) poll giving the winning edge to the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. As reported in the Businessday edition of 23rd September 2022, EIU posited: “we expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances …” In the same vein, EIU has forayed into election prediction in time past with a 50% success rate: got it correct in 2015 for Muhammadu Buhari, but missed it in 2019 for Atiku Abubakar.

    The latest poll that unsettled some political observers and analysts came from Fitch, a leading global rating company. In its report, the presidential candidate of APC was tipped to be enthroned as the de jure president come 29th May 2023. Quoting the Nation newspaper edition of 29th October 2022, it saliently and succinctly stated inter alia: “Indeed, we maintain our view that the APC’s Tinubu is best placed to win the presidential election. We expect that the party, which has nominated a Muslim-Muslim ticket, will repeat its strong performance in the North. Given that Tinubu is a former governor of Lagos, the party is also likely to improve on its performance in the South West. Furthermore, we expect Tinubu to benefit from incumbency advantages, with the APC having been in power since 2015.” There are veritable grounds for the submission of Fitch to justify the outcome of its polls. However, to this columnist, the most cogent, core and crucial point that stands out from the outcome of the polls from the ones of NOI and EIU is that most online users were ascribed or attributed to support Peter Obi, whereas, according to the World Bank report of 2020, only 36.0% of Nigerians have access to the internet. In essence, the outcome of the NOI poll is seemingly skewed and slanted whilst a large chunk of voters was unreached in the poll. Hence, the reliability or credibility is in doubt!

    Obi: Outlining Odds

    It is widely known that most ardent and vociferous supporters of Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s candidate, in the February 2023 presidential election are mostly online and consists of a youthful population who believe it is high time to jettison the old order and project someone different. Curiously, is Peter Obi within that bracket in the context of Nigeria’s polity? Let us brush aside the response. It is good for these ardent supporters to be reminded that in the presidential race, geographical spread of your party is very germane to winning the contest. In Hausa diction, it is “ba wasa” (not for play)! Obi lacks support base in the northern part of this country even as the incumbent Governor of Katsina State once wittingly derided Mr. Peter Obi in a television interview in which Governor Aminu Bello Masari stated that an average northerner might mistake Obi for a Nollywood actor. It is seemingly funny but equally true to many semi-urban and rural dwellers in that part of the country. In essence, the Labour Party lacks the rugged and robust structure to win the presidency. The avid and combatant supporters of Obi need to be told that his name would not be on the ballot but his party. How many of them are conversant with the symbol of the Labour Party as of now – about 3 months to the election? There are widely known distinct symbols of the People Democratic Party (PDP) (umbrella) and All Progressives Party (APC) (broom). The leaders of the Labour Party should better begin this cogent awareness and sensitization among its supporters instead of fighting and finding faults with candidates cum supporters of other parties in the race with their party. It is seemingly an uphill task for the Labour Party candidate to win the presidential election of February 2023 taking cognizance of the dictates of the1999 Constitution (as amended). It is simply and squarely stated that for a candidate to win, he has to garner a simple majority of the total vote cast plus 25% of votes cast in 24 out of the 36 states in the country. The two conditions are seemingly unattainable for a party that fails to have gubernatorial and National Assembly (NASS) candidates in many states. Question: who will be the party agents monitoring the presidential election in these states, districts, constituencies, wards and units. The Labour Party (LP) needs a lot of ground to cover. If it braces up very well by building a brand through a clear-cut identity and ideology, it could be a party to beat in the future, but definitely not 2023. However, the chances of LP look bright in the south east and south south regions where there is likelihood of the votes of the main opposition party, PDP, being fragmented between it and LP. On the other hand, Obi’s influence despite the presence of his Igbo brethren, largely traders, and some youths clamouring for change from the old political overlords in the south west seemingly cannot cause a seismic shift in the voting pattern in that region as Tinubu holds sway without any controversy.

    Prophecy or Prediction: Proper Preparation Prevents Poor Performance!

    In conclusion, it is intriguing and interesting to make reference to the commencement story to this article. To this columnist, whatever may be the outcome of any poll, be it NOI, EIU or Fitch, what is vital is how properly prepared are the parties and the candidates flying the flags of these parties as the February 2023 presidential election beckons. In addition, to be factored in, is the pervading and persuasive strategic sagacious steps that will be deployed by sub national political overlords within some contexts of the country. Referring to the latter, the influence and impact of the trio of Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State; Governor ‘Seyi Makinde of Oyo State; and Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State could not be wished away even as the war of attrition within the PDP aftermath of the presidential primary is escalating and exacerbating almost on a weekly basis. In the next edition, this columnist will put searchlight on the chances and odds against the candidacies of Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. All said and done, the trio of Obi, Atiku and Tinubu need to roll up their sleeves for more engagement with the electorates cutting across the strata of followers within the nooks and crannies of Nigeria rather than anyone of them grandstanding on the social media as most typical voters in Nigeria are not vociferous virtually. This should be a word of wisdom to the furious fans and followers of Mr. Peter Obi. It is significant and salient to state that as at the time of going to the press, Obi is yet to come out with a pragmatic roadmap of how he would govern Nigeria as he supposedly believes that crafting a manifesto does not matter. How would the electorate take him seriously? Is that not analogous to a builder intending building a house without a blueprint? The electorates are flowing and following along in apparent bewilderment as Peter Obi looks the odd man out of the trio of the leading contestants in the race to the Aso Rock Villa. It is not too late in the day to make amends!

    • Ekundayo, Ph.D. – can be reached via 08155262360 (SMS only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com
  • Who cares which presidential candidate Ayo Adebanjo endorses

    Who cares which presidential candidate Ayo Adebanjo endorses

    It is out of the greatest respect for an elder that anybody, especially in Yoruba land, would show any concern over whether, or not, Chief Ayo Adebanjo endorsed any candidate for the 2023 presidential election, or any election at all. This is because, as we say in these parts, ‘tana da?’, which pidgin speaking parts of Nigeria would interpret as ‘na today’? In the election cycles 2011, 2015, and 2019, Chief Adebanjo led Afenifere –he seems to always have the last say in the Pan-Yoruba organization, except now – to endorse candidates Muhammadu Buhari(the late Yinka Odumakin, Baba’s subaltern was the Buhari campaign spokesperson), Goodluck Jonathan and Atiku Abubakar, respectively, but with nothing resembling victory recorded by any of the candidates at the elections. Mr Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labor party should, therefore, be wary and learn appropriate lessons, despite the sweet theorising of the likes of Professor Pat Utomi who was on Channel’s tv,  justifying Chief Adebanjo’s one-man act.

    Commenting on my article:’No Candidate Adopted By The Chief Ayo Adebanjo Faction of Afenifere Has Ever Won a Presidential Election’ – The Nation, Sunday, 2 October, 2022 a friend, and classmate of mine at Ife, and a Professor of Political Science to boot, wrote as follows: “Very well written=ØOÜHowever, you might have been beating a dead horse with a big stick. Afenifere is a dead pressure group. Pa Adebanjo is in a time warp; 1999 is not 2022. He is on his own. People now coalesce around political parties, not cultural or pseudo-political groups”.

    He should know.

    On the issue at hand, that is, the endorsement of Ashiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC Presidential candidate, by the Afenifere Leader, Pa Fasoranti and the absolutely needless controversy which Chief Ayo Adebanjo, the Acting leader, and the young men surrounding him, majority of who come from a minority of Yoruba states, have generated, I can only, like saint augustine, say:

    “Roma lacuta, causa finita est”

    (Rome has spoken, the matter is finished)

    Yoruba has spoken through Papa Fasoranti

    Matter is finished

    End of story!

    The above should, ordinarily, be the end of story on the controversy about what happened at the Akure meeting hosted by Pa Fasoranti, at which many distinguished Yoruba leaders were present to welcome, and endorse Ashiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the APC presidential candidate in the 2023 election. It is worth recalling that before he set out on the titanic task of vying for the ruling party’s presidential candidacy at the party’s primaries, Tinubu had thought it wise to come home for prayers; with a promise to return after clinching same. But some of our compatriots, who believe they know more than others , and believe that the  Yoruba people, via Afenifere,  must be traded to all manner of  candidates at every election cycle, are trying to raise hell.

    But this time around, Yorubas say no. Eni kan ki je awa de.

    It is unbelievable that any Yoruba leader would not appreciate the real import, and the  implications, of the forthcoming elections for the Yoruba race, but would rather, go on a freeloading excursion all the way to Igbo land to endorse a presidential candidate in the name of a principle which changes every four years as shown above. For the education of such leaders, however, please permit me to quote from Adewale Adeoye  in  his recent article: ‘2023: Who are the Yoruba leaders? He wrote: “Yoruba leaders should know that their people will like to see 2023 as an election which will produce a leader that will save the race from the present cultural genocide, the regression, the oppression, the loss of ancestral territories to armed savages, the raping of women on our farms, the killing of our kings as well as the violation of the sacred norms of our humanity. Resolving these issues to guarantee self-determination is far more important than any other issue. To the Yoruba, the 2023 election is only useful if it has a solution to the gruesome situation in our fatherland”. “There is an urgent threat of being overwhelmed by Talibans. The people have to take a decision. For now, whatever discussion, or power struggle by Yoruba leaders, not motivated by, and linked, to the struggle of the people for survival and upliftment from the current stupor, is counterproductive and can only be the masturation of an individual ego”.

    Given the existential challenges presently ravaging literally every ethnic group in Nigeria, Yoruba inclusive, what manner of principle is Chief Adebanjo claiming to  pursue, leaving Yorubas adrift? How can it be called leadership, hoisting a pan – Yoruba organisation, even if now substantially diminished, in support of an igbo, or any  other ethnic candidate when we have one of our own contesting? Indeed, how reasonable is that when that organisation is not the personal property of anybody?

    Chief Adebanjo has, understandably, been loudest in criticising President Buhari for the insecurity convulsing the country.  So how come he now wanders all the way to the Southeast to locate a presidential candidate to whose apron strings he must tie yorubas? So that what will, or not, happen? Chief  Adebanjo must tell Yorubas the truth of his present infatuation .

    Meanwhile, his choice of party – the Labour party- is one that hasn’t a single recognisable Yoruba within its leadership cadre. Besides that, the party “has no candidates for the Senate in Borno, Ekiti, Katsina, Kebbi and Lagos; has one out of 3 in Bayelsa, Delta, Jigawa, Ondo and Yobe and has 2 out of 3 in Bauchi, Kogi, Niger and Sokoto States. For the House of Representatives, Labour has no single candidate in Borno (9 seats), Ekiti(6 seats), Katsina (13 seats), Kebbi (8 seats), Lagos (24 seats) and Ondo (9 seats) just as it has less than 50% representation in Bauchi, Jigawa, Kogi, Niger and Plateau. Representations by candidates, for the Labour Party in the following states are also incomplete: Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Kano, Sokoto and Zamfara”.

    So what principle drove Chief Adebanjo to such a party? What, for him, is the end in view even for the  Igbo people he is so vociferously supporting, or for his Yorubas, who must be igbo attaches? Of course, Igbos are not deceived, and I believe that both igbos and  Yorubas must ask him these crucial questions or are both being recruited for purposes of the Chief’s political relevance, come 2023?

    One of Chief Adebanjo’s major criticisms of the Akure meeting is that many of those who attended the meeting are not members of Afenifere, and that they are, indeed, APC leaders. Where, at all, he conceded the membership of some, he went on to ask, rhetorically:when last did they attend Afenifere meetings? In fact, one of his subalterns put it more blandly. Wrote Akinyemi Onigbinde elsewhere: “The issue here is straight forward: the Akure meeting was not an Afenifere meeting, and those who signed the letter inviting people did that under a well stated organization. I got a call from Chief Seinde Arogbofa who informed me that Pa Fasoranti asked him to request of me to join him to receive Tinubu, a request I declined, with apologies to the grand old man who was being manipulated to give a veneer of Afenifere cover to a meeting that was to be attended, mostly, by chieftains of APC and their sympathisers in the South West. Thus, inviting people like me was to help achieve some objective which I refused to help realize”. Indeed, to drive home his case, he wrote further to the effect that even the General Secretary of Afenifere –  a position Chief Adebanjo personally donated to Ebisemiju who, on papa’s 94th birthday anniversary, wrote to Chief Adebanjo that he was giddily happy for the honour – and is from Ondo state, refused to attend, as if that amounted to anything.

    With all due respect, Chief Adebanjo must be told that he has scared not a few away from Afenifere. As my two- time teacher, both at Christ’s School, Ado –Ekiti, and at the University of Ife, I have known, and have been very close, to Senator (Professor) Banji Akintoye for no less than six decades but I have never seen him half as distraught as he was, the day he told me his experience in the hands of Pa Adebanjo and Yinka Odumakin, of blessed memory, all because he was, absolutely unsolicited, elected the Yoruba leader at an event in Ibadan. According to him, there was no name the duo didn’t call him and he made up his mind, there and then, never to attend any meeting of Afenifere ever again. Professor Akintoye was, by the way, at the time, Chairman of Afenifere’s Political Committee and, indeed, the organisation’s brain box.

    How many people do we know have fared worse as long as Chief Adebanjo prefers to run a one – man show in Afenifere; the reason he had no qualms saying, on television, that he needs not take any advice from Pa Fasoranti?Indeed, if we were moved to consider the argument of the naysayers, is contemporary Afenifere in a position to command the stellar attendance of highly regarded Yorubas, the kind we saw at the Akure event?

    No way.

    In fact, when last did Afenifere meetings enjoy attendance of members from majority of Yoruba states? Chief Adebanjo has, of course, always seen ‘ara Oke’ Yorubas as aliens in Afenifere, and this has been the inspiration for his attempted sole ruler ship of what, essentially, is a Pan –Yoruba organization. There isn’t a scintilla of doubt that Afenifere needs a proper re-engineering which the leader, Pa Fasoranti, must begin to think about in consultation with others. Afenifere affairs must, in no circumstance, be personalised. For instance, its meetings continued to be held at Chief Ajasin’s house in owo even after Chief  Adesanya had been appointed Acting Leader and got moved to Ijebu only after he became the substantive Leader.

    This event also reminds me of another of Chief Adebanjo’s one-upmanship. Eager to resolve any differences, whatever, with the older Afenifere, the Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG), ahead of its first ever public outing at the IITA, Ibadan, decided to invite all Afenifere leaders to what we called ‘THE IBADAN RETREAT’. It was packed full and, in fact, for the entire 3 days it lasted, we were blessed to have the presence of both Senator, and Mama Ayo Fasanmi, while most did only one day. At the event, all the Afenifere leaders, speaking in turn, said all misunderstandings were forgiven, and forgotten. But trust the ever seminal Hon. Wale Oshun, leader of ARG. As we were about rounding up, he dug deep into his rich history of Afenifere, and suggested that we set up a few sub groups to visit each of the Afenifere leaders to make sure that, of a truth, a closure has been put to every misunderstanding. When reports of the visits were subsequently being collated, the report from Hon Oshun who, understandably, led the group to Chief Adebanjo, showed that all we had been doing was no more than pouring water in a sieve.

    Afenifere sure needs a rejig, and there can be no denying the fact that Pa Fasoranti is the undeniable Afenifere, as well as the ‘numero uno’ Yoruba Leader.

  • Okon survives an assassination attempt

    Okon survives an assassination attempt

    As Okon’s antics became more outlandish with each passing day, snooper devised a scheme for tempering the juvenile Calabar rogue’s waywardness. The mad boy has even added Governor General of Efik nation to his numerous titles. We decided to ask him to accompany snooper to the barber’s shop where we normally relax and enjoy a game of draughts with our childhood crony, Buhari a.k.a  Buhari Jogbojogbo. May be Okon can learn something from the ancient wit and wisdom of the Yoruba, and the humility with which they display their wisdom.

    The day began with snooper trying to sharpen Okon’s rusty mind for the task ahead. He was also cautioned that Jogbojogbo was a dreaded chieftain of an outlawed confraternity and a Yoruba supremacist who believes that his people are the greatest thing that has happened to the world.

    “Okon, what’s your take on this Kong-fu fight between Ribadu and Aondoakaa?”

    “Oga, I like Ribadu well, well. Na me supply the carbide dem use come scatter dem Globacom man’s gate. I write dat one say make he give me dem journalist handset, dem come tell me say dem no sabi any journalist wey dey bear Okon.  Na im  I say if dem no sabi my pen dem go sabi my carbide”.

    “Okon !!” I screamed in disbelief.

    “Oga, leave me o jare. Wetin you say be the name of the man who dey fight Nuhu?”, Okon asked with a devilish smile.

    “Aondoakaa”, I replied.

    “God punish am. No be dem people wan kill me for Bauchi?” Okon growled.

    “No, no Okon. He is not a Dandoka. He is a Tiv.” I corrected.

    “Oga, if he be thief, why Nuhu no go fight am finis?”

    “No, no no, he is Tivi, Tivi, wereeeee!” I screamed at the mad boy.

    “Chei oga na wa for dis kontri. I no no say some people dem dey answer Television” Okon said and burst into a ringing laugh.

    The fireworks started immediately as soon as we got to the barber’s shop with Jogbojogbo eyeing Okon with suppressed mirth as if he was a specimen from the zoo.

    “Alamu, do you need this one to dress like Mungo Park to cook  egusi soup for you?” Jogbojogbo asked with wry bemusement.

    “Buhari, leave the poor boy alone”. I said with a smile. Okon was not amused at all. After trouncing snooper in straight sets, Buhari became expansive and started taunting Okon again.

    “Come oo, Etteh, what’s that your funny name again?”, he asked Okon.

    “Oga, I no be Etteh, I be Okon Anthony Okon”, Okon snapped.

    “Hen, hen, so when did your people start bearing name?” Buhari crooned.

    “Oga, when my people dey go school for Hope Waddell your people dey fight for Kiriji” Okon submitted with a straight face.

    “ Ha lenu e, Eko yi ti baje. Even Calabar cook dey talk back”, Buhari stammered in wounded self-regard. Sensing tragedy, I quickly rose to go, but Okon was not done.

    “And make I tell you, na Calabar dem white people wan make capital, but dem come find say your people make better slaves”, Okon blasted.    On hearing this, Jogbojogbo flung out a huge amulet from his pocket. Okon scrambled away, screaming, “Yoruba people wan kill me again ooo”.

    First published in 2008 but republished due to popular demand.

  • The coronation as carnival

    The coronation as carnival

    To the ancient town of Modakeke for the coronation of its oba, Kabiyesi, Olubiyi Joseph Toriola, Ajibise Ogo 1, the Ogunsua of Modakeke, this past Thursday, November 3rd, 2022. It was a great festival of reunion; a carnival of restitution and rejuvenation. For two days, the entire community knew neither rest nor respite. There was hope and optimism in the air.

    Something was astir in the ancient community of fabled combatants. It was a spectacular fiesta of feeding and drinking which reminded one of the epic feast of pounded yam in Things Fall Apart where it took a whole day of leveling the mountain stomach infrastructure before those on one side could finally catch a glimpse of those on the other side.

    Modakeke, named after the ancient storks at Iraye Quarters and their cacophonous cackling, is as historic as it is storied. Originally a haven for refugees fleeing the collapse of the old Oyo Empire, it soon developed a radical and revolutionary momentum of its own from the ashes of old empire. With its retinue of recuperating former warriors and rehabilitated foot soldiers famously known as Eso, they soon began cocking a snook at their hosts in fierce dispute over “isakole”, or tenancy holding.

    There is an element of poetic justice about it all since they all originated from the same common ethnic stock. But poetic justice is one thing, pressing and urgent political justice and equity about contemporary holding, continuous occupation and unbroken possession is another. You cannot resolve modern disputes about land holding through a recourse to ancestral ties and bonds of consanguinity.

    However, it must be said that a lot depends on skillful negotiation and visionary circumspect leadership. The late Ooni, Sir Adesoji Tadeniawo Aderemi, overcame this conundrum through strategic nuptial gaming which saw him take a wife from every nook and cranny of his domain and environs.

    Several wars, skirmishes, sieges, sacking, deadly political intrigues later, a wary truce subsists between the two brotherly communities. One can only describe what has happened as akin to creative destruction. Both Ile-Ife and Modakeke now wear a new look.

    The development in the two towns after two decades of unbroken peace is a little short of staggering: brand new modern hotels, schools, hospitals, places of worship, shopping malls, banks and gleaming estates have sprung up to replace the sites of apocalyptic carnage. One felt like a Rip van Winkle waking up from a slumber as one traverse the entire length and breadth of the two conjoined cities.

    In a happy symmetry, many of the delighted denizens of the two communities have fingered the incumbent Ooni and the newly ennobled Ogunsua as the arrowheads of the furious and fast-paced drive for the modernization of the ancient metropolis that everyone is witnessing. Ife and Modakeke remind one of a sprawling construction site.

    Just before the insignia of office was handed to the new Ogunsua, the Ooni, Enitan Ogunwusi, gave a brilliant speech which was a tour de force of extempore speechifying. Standing tall before the animated audience in the vast hall, the royal monarch proclaimed the dawn of a new era of peace and prosperity for the two communities. The entire place erupted in rapture and wild cheering.

    The golden symbolism of the moment could not be overlooked. There was something eerily reminiscent of the cradle of Yoruba civilization in its golden era of yore. It was a grand show of affirmative faith in a new beginning for people of mutual ancestry and heritage who have been bitterly polarized by different historical trajectories and the resulting existential exigencies.

    Royally resplendent with his demure and queenly Olori, the new Ogunsua and his wife sat sandwiched between the Asiwaju of Ife, the dignified and imperious looking octogenarian lawyer plutocrat, Chief Alex Duduyemi and the Asiwaju of Modakeke, Professor Anthony Oyewole , the nonagenarian scholar, notable political scientist  and product of one of America’s most prestigious universities.

    This cool, pleasant morning of early November, all the weapons of intra-ethnic warfare and the booming cannons of violent contention have gone quiet. Peace reigned supreme in the land. If there was any smoke at all, it was probably the fumes from a nearby mining asphalt quarry. The old mine happened to have been part of one’s ancestral farmland.

    On a rare visit to the farm as an impressionable youth, one’s father had taken him to the summit of the rocky escarpment after an arduous trek. The old man, a political gladiator with a permanent sense of apocalyptic foreboding, casually informed yours sincerely that deep inside the rock was an ancient boa constrictor that had lived for centuries. The day the mining blast reached its domain would be followed by a pestilential downpour which would put civilization in sharp perspective.

    But if there was any boa constrictor around this beautiful morning, it was probably part of the royal cuisine. Oba Olubiyi Toriola is a man of rare and exemplary culinary and sartorial taste. Snooper can personally attest to that. Looking at a king’s mouth, as they say, no one would think he ever suckled at his mother’s breasts.

    To get to his current dizzying royal heights, the Ogunsua has had to scale impossible and incredible adversities which he bore with characteristic equanimity. It has been a hard slog inching his way up the greasy pole of royal superstardom. It is a test of endurance and character. Like the fabled Ibadan kingship system which stretches the fabric of human durability to its utmost limit, the Modakeke royal stool is not the domain of callow and untested whizz-kids.

    Kabiyesi took it all in the chin. It has taken him almost five decades to get to the pinnacle of royal power and part of this is owed to the intervention of good luck and the ineluctable logic of destiny. As it has been noted, the great man of destiny often carries within his capacious bosom, a convergence of destiny between him and the greater destiny of his society.

    Yours sincerely met the future Ogunsua about four decades ago in the course of his arduous ascent up the ladder of royal destiny. He was a senior staffer at the then University of Ife while one was an up and coming lecturer. He was then the Ikolaba of Modakeke and it must be noted that this period coincided with the most turbulent era in the modern history of his people.  Oba Toriola acquitted himself brilliantly and people could notice even then that he was a man marked for higher responsibility.

    There was something utterly disarming about his combination of playful seriousness and a sense of higher responsibility to his people. He had nerves of steel. He walked softly but carried a heavy stick. Despite a debonair and polite exterior, it would be extremely foolhardy for anybody to test his iron will and implacable resolve. The skull of an elephant is not a luggage for mere kids.

    Quick-witted and forever thinking on his feet, Oba Toriola is a master of the witty repartee and verbal rapid response. Three and a half decades after one can still hear the thunderous artillery of heavy polemical exchanges and sharp ideological rebuff emanating from the iconic Staff Club of the university. It was a period marked by implacable political contention and heavy ideological contestation. The Staff Club was a mere extension of the gladiators’ coliseum, brimming with the scalps of political adversaries.

    Despite his harmless mien and gentle exterior, Oba Ogunsua was often drawn into the melee by political necessity. A gifted professor of medicine who took delight in deriding the future Oba as being no more than an Ikolaba of Modakeke got the verbal roasting of his life when the future Oba Toriola retorted that the Ikolaba of Modakeke was actually superior to the royal sovereign of many people. (Ikolaba Modakeke t’oju oba ilu elomiran).

    As the youthful Vice President of the Club and later as Chairman, the duty fell on yours sincerely to monitor proceedings and make sure that the verbal brawls did not degenerate into actual physical confrontation.

    Even then, one recalls a particular moonlit night when two famous political pugilists, a celebrated Marxist lecturer and a die-hard Awo loyalist, having exhausted their stock of political arsenal, decided to try their luck in actual boxing. Only divine intervention saved the day as each man simply walked into their respective vehicle on reaching the car park where they had agreed to settle matters.

    Given this intellectual lineage, it was perhaps appropriate to note that the coronation of the new Ogunsua was flagged off on Wednesday afternoon with a lavish party thrown in his honour by the Asiwaju of Modakeke, Professor Anthony Oyewole in his residence at highbrow Modakeke. It was a gathering of the great and the good. Long lost friends, colleagues and associates suddenly materialized as if one had been dragged into a compelling historical cameo.

    The civilized ambience of Asiwaju Oyewole’s residence with its vast courtyard, its plush and verdant lawn, was particularly reminiscent of the old Staff Quarters at the university. Even the aroma of the place spoke to the just and tame taste of the old Nigerian middle class. Our host, the unfailingly polite and ever courteous retired professor, though now considerably slowed down by age and related infirmities, was obviously in good spirits and in his true elements.

    It must be mentioned that they were originally three musketeers, inseparable in war and peace. The trio of Oyewole, Toriola and Olatunji were permanent fixtures of the social and political life in Modakeke and environs. They luxuriated in each other’s company like conjoined triplets.

    Unfortunately and tragically, the third leg of the triumvirate was amputated during the Ife-Modakeke imbroglio. The ever jovial and amiable Dr Adebayo Olatunji was hacked to death as he made his way to his horticultural farm on the Ife-Ibadan road very close to the Ishasha Bridge.

    But it is good to leave behind productive and prime fruits as Olatunji’s son, Yemi, gave a brilliant and rousing speech which brought tears to his eyes, and many people’s eyes, too. Also worthy of mentioning was the dramatic appearance on stage of Professor Omotoye Olorode, like an implacable ghost at a state banquet.

    Now mellowed by age and the scars of a life devoted to the socialist emancipation of a bitterly polarized society of countervailing modes of political and economic production, the ever boyish-looking Ogbomosho indigene is not about to go under lightly. Easily one of the most consistent and principled  Marxist thinkers ever thrown up by the country, Olorode, a friend of Oba Toriola from their youthful days, let it be known that it was not over until it is over.

    It has been a coronation as carnival and a moveable cultural feast at the historic town of Modakeke. Long live, Kabiyesi, the Ogunsua of Modakeke, Oba Olubiyi Joseph Toriola (Ajibise Ogo 1).

  • LET’S DO THE SING-ALONG 15

    LET’S DO THE SING-ALONG 15

    Tere pamp tere pampa

    Tere minan minan tere

     

    Hey ho hey ho let all the nation rejoice

    Our troublesome dons are back to work

    Back to work

    Back to work

    Hey ho hey ho let all the nation rejoice

    Our troublesome dons are back to work

     

    Tere pampa tere pampa

     

    Back to their decrepit classrooms

    Back to their empty labs

    Decrepit classrooms

    Empty labs

    Back to their decrepit classrooms

    Back to their empty labs

     

    Tere pamap tere pampa

     

    Back to their bookless bookstores

    Back to their empty libraries

    Bookless bookstores

    Empty libraries

    Back to their bookless bookstores

    Back to their empty libraries

     

    Tere pampa tere pampa

     

    Back to our demoralized dons

    Back to our long-suffering students

    Demoralized dons

    Long-suffering students

    Back to our demoralized dons

    Back to our long-suffering students

     

    Tere pampa tere pampa

     

    Fumbling, care-less rulers

    And nation in endless darkness

    Care-less rulers

    Endless darkness

    Fumbling, care-less rulers

    And nation in endless darkness

     

    Tere pampa tere pampa

    Tere minnan minnan tere

  • Maimed by dad

    Maimed by dad

    By my self-imposed standards, the topic I am writing on today is stale, having surfaced penultimate week. Precisely on October 7. I love commenting on issues when they are still fresh, that is issues that happened in the immediate past week. But I don’t know why, the more I tried to suppress the urge to write on it, the more unease I became. The matter just refused to disappear from my mind. When I thought I had successfully put it behind me, it crept back whenever I saw the picture of the unfortunate baby who is the subject-matter of the story, or something close to it.

    “Father breaks eight-week-old son’s hand for disturbing his sleep”. This would initially seem like a tale by moonlight. An improbable fiction, sort of. The headline tells it all. How could someone be so annoyed with an eight-week-old baby to the point of flogging him with a plastic hanger until one of his hands was broken, just on account of the baby disturbing one’s sleep? The sequence of things that followed gave me the impression that this was not an accident but something premeditated.

    Although it was not so expressly stated anywhere in the media reports, I want to believe this was not the first time the man, Confidence Amatobi, would be manifesting such sadistic tendency. I guess the wife had been enduring such wickedness before the October 7 incident. This was probably why she could not cry out to attract neighbours to the scene when the husband locked  her and the baby up. She probably feared for her life if she made any attempt to scream.

    This is the most unfortunate part of it.

    We have the Imo State Chapter of the Nigeria Association of Women Journalists (NAWOJ), and National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) to thank for bringing attention to this sad incident. According to the baby’s (Miracle) mother, Favour Chikwe, she left the child with his father on October 7, 2022, to use the convenience, when the incident happened. She said it was the baby’s chilling cry that made her rush back to the room only to discover that his right hand was swollen and his bone broken as a result of the severe beating he had received from his father.  The father reportedly confessed to beating the baby for disturbing his sleep. He then tried to fix the broken arm with rubber bands and sticks!

    “Upon noticing that he has broken the baby’s hand, he used sticks and rubber bands to bind the broken bones together”, the mother said, adding that: “When l confronted him about what he did, he locked us in the room, to prevent me from telling people about his wicked deed or seek for help. He also collected my phone from me so that I will not call the neighbours.”

    We do not know for how long mother and child were locked up. But it was sufficiently long to be late to fix the broken arm. Sufficient damage had been done to the arm by the time the mother was able to get out to go to the hospital. This made the hospitals she initially took the baby to to reject him. Only the Federal Medical Centre, Owerri, eventually agreed to treat him. Even then, the arm had begun to decay, making amputation the last option, to save other parts of the baby’s body from infection.

    While both NAWOJ and NHRC have called on the police to wade into the matter, the baby’s mother has joined them in seeking justice for her child. Imo State chairperson of NAWOJ, Dr Dorothy Nnaji, who spoke to newsmen after visiting the amputated boy at the Federal Medical Centre was shocked that a father could go to such extent to assault his son. She described the act as the height of child abuse and demanded justice for Miracle because he could not speak for himself. Imo State Coordinator of NHRC, Mrs Ukachi Ukah, also condemned the brutality and insisted that justice must be allowed to take its course.

    My heart pours out to Miracle because, for now, he is too young to understand what has happened. I mean he cannot understand the extent of the damage his supposed father has done to him. The problem will come when he grows up and discovers that his friends have two hands. He would discover that his own one arm is a misnomer and that that was not the way God designed it because he would see he is the odd child out among his peers. The mother has to brace up for the day the baby would grow to become a boy and ask her the question of what happened to his right arm?

    That day may be some years from now; but I can imagine how it would be. I can imagine the mother narrating the unfortunate incident to him, both crying inconsolably. Even if the father had regretted his action and repented by then, that cannot completely repair the damage he has done. As they often say, ‘it is too late to cry when the head is off!’

    Apart from the natural trauma of living with one arm, the poor boy has to start learning how to be a lefty, even if that was not his natural choice. At any rate, he has no choice but learn how to do things he naturally would have done with his right hand with the left because that is the only arm he has always known as a result of his father’s wickedness to him. This is the only aspect of his situation that is somewhat consoling. It would have been a different thing if what happened had happened to him as an adult who had been accustomed to using his right hand all the years but is now compelled by circumstances beyond his control to use the left. The transition would have been a different ball game altogether.

    Painful as the situation is, the boy needs counselling on life generally. He needs to be encouraged so that his disability would not be a reason for him to think that he cannot live a meaningful life. Or that that is the end of the road for him. He needs to be encouraged that there is ability even in disability. There are many people with disabilities that are living perfect life today. Some of them have even excelled in their chosen careers or vocations. Some of them have done well academically and are still doing well. Yes, some friends would want to taunt him and make him feel inferior. That is normal. Miracle needs to be taught to focus more on the larger picture of becoming a success story in life despite his situation so that those who mock him at a point would later see the folly of their actions when he turns his situation around through a dint of hard work.

    That would be living to his true name: Miracle.

    But the mother too needs to be advised that the baby’s situation should not be a reason to start using him to beg for alms. She already has a miracle in her hands and what she does with it is also likely to determine what she profits from him in the future. Parents, particularly mothers do carry some cross before they can later in life sit back to wear the crown; that is reap the fruits of their labour. There is hardly a mother you would see today that has not endured one pain or the other in years past, especially to make their children become something in life. So, rather than keep lamenting, ‘why me, why me’, Miracle’s mother should face her situation with uncommon audacity. Even if she has a dozen more children, who knows if Miracle is the one that would announce the family’s name on the global hall of fame?

    But all of these would be made even easier for the mother and child where the governments take a keen interest in matters like this. In a truly compassionate society, Miracle’s case would have attracted attention in very high places, or even among our money-bags. I have deliberately kept the father out of the picture so far because he should be fished out to face his comeuppance. That is the starting point for him. The only pity I may want to have on him is to ask that he be taken to a psychiatric hospital to determine his mental status because I do not think any father in his right senses would do what he has done to his two-month-old baby. It is even unimportant whether the baby is his blood or not. It beggars belief that someone would flog such a child until the child’s fragile arm gave way under such queer monstrosity.

    That is not all.

    After the flogging, the man still had the temerity to lock mother and child up in a room to prevent the mother from telling the world the inhuman treatment that the father that this paper appropriately referred to as ‘a father from hell’ meted to his two-month-old son. This was why the fractured arm decayed before they got to the hospital and the poor boy’s hand had to be amputated so it does not cause serious damage to other parts of his body.

    This is a case of child abuse with a difference. Why? It was perpetrated by a father against his own son. Of course we are used to cases of domestic violence where some husbands thoroughly abuse their wives or vice versa. In some cases, lives had been lost, apparently when one of the parties could no longer take the excesses of the other. We are also used to stories, either of actual or surrogate mothers maltreating their children or wards. But  the story of a father flogging a two-month-old baby till he broke his arm would qualify for a new low in such abuses. It would look more like a story for ‘This odd world’ in those days.

    I join NAWOJ, NHRC and Miracle’s mother in urging the police to fish out Miracle’s run-away father. He must be smoked out from hiding to face interrogation and prosecution. We need to hear him out. Why did he do it? Perhaps all of us may have one lesson or the other to learn from the unfortunate incident.

    But whatever it is, Miracle must get justice for this lifetime depravity. That may not replace his arm; it would at least serve as caution to people who might want to emulate Confidence Amatobi who has exercised confidence in the most dysfunctional manner in this unfortunate incident.

  • Tinubu at OPS leaves PDP, LP breathless

    Tinubu at OPS leaves PDP, LP breathless

    What set last Tuesday’s meeting between All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate and the Organised Private Sector (OPS) was not just the substance and coherence of the plans he laid before the business community, but the political orchestration that went into conceiving the meeting and pulling it off. The meeting was attended by a host of governors and deputy governors as well as former governors, top political leaders and business moguls. It was a remarkable meeting between politics and business. It was also an acknowledgement of the fact that the business community, as Britain’s business community showed in the deposition of former British Prime Minister Liz Truss, is highly influential in determining who becomes leader and whether that leader succeeds or fails.

    Judging from the feedback from the meeting, the APC candidate appeared to have made a persuasive case for his leadership. It was thoughtful and proactive of the APC leaders to have gone to the meeting with a high-powered delegation. Such a delegation had its intrinsic quality and value, and it sends meaning and significance far in excess of the numerical power of the APC delegation. Then there is the sensible optics of constituting the team from the country’s geopolitical zones, a composition that was undoubtedly not lost on the business community whose variegated business interests run across the length and breadth of the country. The attendance was also remarkable, and interest in the discussions was focused and riveting. By and large, the outing was a good one for both the OPS and the APC. This is how politics should be done, not only rallies and soapbox theatrics.

    The campaigns were flagged off in late September, and the parties really began to flex muscles only in October. It is thus only about a month since the 2023 campaigns really began. Three of the leading parties have released their manifestos, to wit, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) without fanfare but with overweening graphics, the APC colourfully, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) almost mutedly. The Labour Party (LP) is just transcending its initial faux pas of demeaning the significance of a manifesto, and has finally promised to unveil one soon, insisting that the one leaked to the media last week was still being reviewed. Apart from unveiling manifestos, the parties have tried their hands at organising rallies, with the LP being the first to set great store by the public shows, not to say give the impression that elections could be won by rallies, especially sizable rallies. After the APC made a humongous show of organising its own rallies, and the PDP thundered through three states with their own, the message seems to have been conveyed to the political parties themselves as well as the rest of the country that rallies are after all not as significant as first imagined.

    This is probably why the APC has seamlessly reverted to its initial campaign design of scientifically coursing through the country and conferencing with interest groups to convey persuasive messages of hope and renewal. They have identified major interest groups and vote herders, and have begun systematically to meet with them with high-powered delegations – not solitary and grumbling delegations – to deliver impressive messages that cannot be gainsaid, messages filled with hope and interspersed with can-do spirit. This is in addition to making huge efforts to lock up the votes in political districts and geopolitical zones, and commissioning canvassers to carry the flag to every nook and cranny. The other leading parties will try to mimic this style, but they appear, so far, to lack the oomph and conviction, not to say the resources to execute what they long to imitate.

    After the APC and PDP responded with rallies of their own, the LP has been left panting. It has suddenly lost the zeal to do rallies, perhaps because it can really never match the crowd of the two leading parties, or because organising rallies cost a pretty penny. As far as the soapbox goes, the LP decided to take off from Nasarawa State. Their campaign rally became like an athlete who put his worst foot forward. Either in response to that showing or the exigencies of costs, the LP has appeared to become flatfooted. They should have put their best foot forward, assuming but not conceding that rallies even indicate strength and signpost victory. The NNPP, led by a solid politician and ideologue, never really got off the starting bloc, despite its voluminous manifesto. They too have been left panting, quite unable to respond with roadshows or campaign rallies. They will learn a thing or two from LP and will try to put their best foot forward. But their best effort will undoubtedly seem contrived. Nigerians know the NNPP does not have the money or the administrative strength, and can in fact muster very little of anything. But they won’t roll over and play dead. They will flex a muscle or two in the weeks ahead.

    By far the most puzzling of the four leading contenders for the 2023 throne is the PDP, which for reasons probably connected with its internal dynamics has been unable to pull its weight so far. It has the potential to dazzle and bewitch the electorate, and may even manage to conjure the requisite resources to make huge statements. But, so far, it has been left breathless, if not transfixed. Three campaign rallies have barely made the country to budge in their direction. And they have neither made a solid statement with their manifesto nor organised convincing roadshows, nor yet shown by example and panache that they understand the scientific method of herding votes. After their defeat in 2015 and 2019, the last of which was probably their best chance of retaking the presidency, they have lost steam and have been unable to regain composure. Except they are able to pull a rabbit out of their hat – and there are no magicians among them – it is unlikely that their best days are not behind them.

     

    Herdsmen give mystifying conditionalities

    At their expanded executive committee meeting last Monday, the Miyetti Allah Kautal Hore  Fulani socio-cultural association, mostly known as Miyetti Allah, listed some conditions to be met before peace could be restored in troubled communities where farmers and herders have been at daggers drawn. Among the conditions is the immediate designation, publication in gazette and development of all 415 grazing reserves across the states of the federation. They gave their parameters for that development. They also want a Ministry of Nomadic Affairs, and the cessation of profiling of Fulani pastoralists. They then warned that self-help could be imminent if what they identified as the Taraba massacre was not investigated and culprits identified and brought to justice. The association made a number of other demands.

    The problem is not that Miyetti Allah has demands, whether reasonable or otherwise. As an association they are entitled to seek ways and conditions to advance the business of their group. The problem, however, is the threat of self-help and their demand for an end to continuous profiling. There had been instances in the past when they had threatened self-help and carried it out, a fact that has now made the farmers-herders crisis in Benue intractable. Their demand for the development of grazing reserves, though unclear in its scope, is at least an improvement on their long-running demand for the re-establishment of grazing routes, a demand the federal government had inexplicably attempted to enforce years back. It is also curious that the law enforcement agencies have not responded vigorously to their threat to embrace self-help over the Taraba conflict.

    At least, by shifting ground, particularly in asking for the development of grazing reserves instead of doubling down on grazing routes, it seems eventually that Miyetti Allah has started to recognise that the world has moved on in animal husbandry and dairy farming. They must now find the wisdom of making recourse to the practice of lobbying the legislature and state and federal governments in order to advance and protect the interests of their members. If they resent being profiled, then they must reform their methods and objectives. Exhibiting a sense of entitlement, which they had done over the years, was both retrogressive and counterproductive. It was never going to work in an increasingly complex and changing world.

  • Sunak: Britain breaks the mould

    Sunak: Britain breaks the mould

    Last week, British-Asian Rishi Sunak, a Hindu to boot in titularly Christian Britain, ascended to the post of prime minister. The dynamics of British politics, particularly Conservative Party politics, foretold the ascension. It was delayed for a few weeks as the Tory Party rank and file, deploying subterranean racial preferences, thwarted his dominant performance in the leadership selection process and instead backed the underperforming and controversial Liz Truss to become prime minister in early September. Fifty days later, after she came to grief, the British-born Mr Sunak, 42, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Boris Johnson administration, took office. He is the first non-white British prime minister, but not the first ‘outsider’.

    There were other outsiders. Mr Johnson was American-born and has Muslim (Turkish) and Jewish (Russian-Lithuanian) ancestry. Bonar Law was Canadian-born. Robert Jenkinson had Indian blood but descended from Portuguese settlers in India. And Benjamin Disraeli was clearly of Jewish descent. It took eons for a Catholic Christian to become United States president, and that country has had just two since Independence in 1776, an indication of just how deeply discriminating America remains. Mr Sunak is the first Hindu to lead Christian Britain. His ascent, probably the last card played by the Tories to stave off early elections, was without the input of Tory electors, many of whom have probably not transcended the prejudices of colour and religion. He will hope that his performance in clearing the mess left behind by Mr Johnson and accreted by Mrs Truss will be sufficient to tide him through the next two years before general election. His antecedents are good, even though his time at the exchequer was not without controversy. He is also regarded as eloquent and brilliant. But whether those qualities will suffice to help him retain leadership through the next two years and beyond the elections remains to be seen.

    The ascension of Mr Sunak has been made possible by the peculiarities of the Westminster system. It is inconceivable that given the Christian whiteness of Britain, he would have emerged through any other system. It is, therefore, premature to celebrate Britain as a tolerant and multicultural country. Racism still exists in the country, and the country has remained proud of their mature and nuanced sense of national humour, but both their witticism and nuanced racism still describe an implacable iron curtain that few outsiders can penetrate. The Tories boxed themselves into a corner and, therefore, needed a messiah, partly because of the economic mess occasioned by Brexit and on account of a succession of poor leadership from Theresa May through Mr Johnson and Mrs Truss who proved incompetent to understand or grapple with the issues hobbling the country. Given the dynamics of British politics, much of which is not even publicly displayed or voiced, it is not certain that Mr Sunak delivering a stellar performance can buck the general trend. Britain needs him now; they will tolerate him until he makes a major slip, if indeed he does.

    But Europe is turning right, after many years of challenge by foreign cultures consequent upon relentless migration. And while Britain has proved spectacularly adept at challenging the cultural and governing ethos of the continent, especially viewed against the background of the revolts of 1780s and 1848, no one is sure how the country will respond this time as France battles hard to stay centrist under rightist pressures, and Italy finally veers right under the fiery Giorgi Meloni, first female prime minister and far-right leader. Brexit was anchored on the immigration conundrum which the European Union proved tardy at resolving. Mr Sunak, whose politics is described as far-right, may have sensibly aligned himself with tighter immigration controls and policy, but at the bottom of the immigration issue is refined and nuanced racism. Britain may be secularist and even fancies itself as multicultural, especially seeing that Sadiq Khan, another ‘outsider’ is Mayor of London, a city that is more than 50 percent coloured, but at bottom race issues and British pride form a tangled skein of politics which the country has quibbled over for decades but not disentangled.

    On balance, the good money is on Mr Sunak helping to resolve the economic maladies which Britain is contending with. He is British-born, but there are doubts that he can truly and adequately exemplify and even embody the Britishness the country has been known for in its foreign policy and especially its Atlantic Alliance. The United States may keep a straight face in relating with Mr Sunak, and even talk the talk in involving Britain in wider global and security issues, but just as British World War II military leaders cleverly sidetracked the British monarch, which they feared had not completely transcended its Germanic origins, both Europe and the US will squirm a little in relating with the new British prime minister until he proves himself. Despite the dominance of democratic institutions as solid undergird for British life and politics, Mr Sunak will still labour in the months ahead to prove himself completely British in a way that Mayor Khan has not been called upon to demonstrate. Yet if he does, and if his performance proves spectacularly stellar, there are still no guarantees that the next elections will go the way of the Tories.

    The ascension of Mr Sunak is a tantalising prospect for multiculturalism. However, as global fluctuations wreak havoc on European economies, nationalism and far-right politics might recrudesce. India itself celebrates the new British prime minister, but its own domestic policy encased in Hinduism, and nauseously projected by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is largely intolerant of ‘others’. Mayor Khan, London-born British-Pakistani, is another testimony to the advantages of multiculturalism, but Pakistan is one of the most intolerant countries in the Muslim world, frequently murdering, by lynching and judicial murder, religious dissenters. No matter how well the idea of multiculturalism is propagated, it will always be susceptible to the politics of nationalism, especially in periods of economic, religious and political turbulence and decline. Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy and a few other European countries frequently teeter on the brink of nationalism and far-right politics. Germany underscored this point in the 1930s, just as Russia is carrying out, in the name of nationalism, unimaginable atrocities in the Ukrainian war in disregard for the rules of war and the lessons learnt from the holocaust.

    Mr Khan has been mayor for about six years and has performed creditably, a feat no doubt. Londoners, nay the British, put premium on performance, regardless of the religion and race of the elected leader. And this is obviously not limited to sports. Mr Sunak may, all things being equal, see out his mandate to the next elections. But it is not clear that these multicultural advances will not in the final analysis be totemic of British life and government plagued by poor leadership, doubts, economic distress, ambivalence towards the concept of Europe, and shifting cultural and political mores on the continent. As the British and the rest of the world will surmise from a cursory reading of the cyclical view of history, no one is sure that the world has improved or undergone revolutionary changes in the management of diversity, whether of race or religion. If in doubt, wait until the next war, or the next social ferment, or the next depression.

    APC, PDP manifestos and LP

    Adamu and Ayu

    Even before the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu unveiled his manifesto for the 2023 presidential race, a few highly reputable global organisations, including Fitch, the global rating company, and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), had started to pay attention to the seriousness with which the party and its candidate were approaching the 2023 race. It was, therefore, not difficult for them to forecast an APC victory, a forecast that has now seemed reinforced by the unveiling of the candidate’s manifesto for the 2023 race. On the contrary, apart from the unremitting internal wrangling in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), a rancour which has so far defied any possible amelioration, the party’s presidential candidate’s manifesto has raised suspicion that it seemed to have been written to hoodwink.

    Alhaji Atiku rolled out his plans first, but he probably overlooked many critical issues and gave the impression that, having run for the office a number of times, he merely adapted his previous manifestos and hoped to pass the test effortlessly. His manifesto was thus silent on sports, the increasingly volatile issue of climate change, and the all-important and indispensable driver of economic growth – the digital economy. Apart from these lacunae, even those things he paid attention to and planned to build Nigeria’s future upon appeared grossly utopian and conceptually misleading. For instance, he plans to lift about 10m Nigerians out of poverty when nearly 100m people already live in poverty; aims to construct about 5,000km of railway lines estimated to cost nearly $50bn when even the entire rail network, both modern and antiquated, is far less than that; and unrealistically plans to increase petroleum refining capacity to about two million barrels per day when he knows that in the short to medium term that kind of capacity could not be engineered. Then to indicate without a shred of doubt that he has simply concocted figures to trap the unwary, he says he plans to double Nigeria’s GDP by the year 2030 from about $2000 to about $5000. By African standards, that leap will be unprecedented.

    However, the PDP presidential candidate at least acknowledges the role of manifestos, no matter how theoretical and illusory, in winning elections and governing a country. Labour Party’s Peter Obi has been scandalously remiss in acknowledging the place of a manifesto in elections and governance. Asked recently when he would be unveiling his manifesto for the 2023 race, he sneered and suggested that manifestos were hardly respected by those who write them, and that in any case the answers he gave his interviewer qualified as a manifesto after all. It was a shockingly obtuse position to take, and a repudiation of the seriousness of the document serving as a reminder to the candidate that he would be held accountable for what he has promised. It unfortunately led to suggestions that Mr Obi neither planned to win the poll nor hoped to be taken seriously. In fact, it was summed up that his race for the presidency was an afterthought. Despite the feverish activities on social media and the propaganda unleashed on his behalf, he knows that the possibility of winning is remote, and grows even remoter as the weeks grind on and the demands of the race take on earnestness.

    Worse, even if he were minded to, he could not step down for Alhaji Atiku, for he has become a hostage to his supporters who want him to run, and if he does not win, to use the 2023 race as a stepping stone to 2027. Mr Obi will of course get round to producing a manifesto, but he will not own it. Restricting himself to operational manuals is not his style and is beyond his philosophical ken. Some of his aides, including Pat Utomi, a professor of political economy, will not allow him get away without producing one. Mr Obi’s aides will, therefore, get him a document, but it will be perfunctory and will be marginalised by the candidate himself. Even if it becomes a document of extreme academic exertion and rigour, he will neither study and internalise it nor deign to speak to it. No politician with as much consumerist bent as Mr Obi allows himself to be held in thrall by an inconvenient document of doubtful utility.

    Asiwaju Tinubu’s 2023 presidential manifesto has been the more carefully crafted and reflective of the two unveiled manifestos. Thoughtfully curated, and allowing only as much detail as is practical and necessary, it satisfies nearly all the criteria required of a manifesto. It does not make vaunted, unsubstantiated claims and projections, and it has traversed new economics and the trending issue of climate change. The manifesto recognises national security as ‘the bedrock of a prosperous and democratic society’ and suggests how it should be configured, including repositioning the police in order to restore their dignity and make them more efficient. On the economy, it commonsensically advocates tax reform, optimisation of government revenue, inspires a national industrial plan, and plans mortgage and consumer credit reform. Then it zeroes in on what is now described as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the digital economy. The manifesto speaks convincingly to a lot more on agriculture, oil and gas, education, and judicial reform, among other issues. Interestingly too, while the APC candidate has refused to bog himself down with the mundaneness of religion or same-faith ticket, he has begun to focus on his area of strength, especially how to run a modern society and complex economy, his areas of strength. He is at home discussing tax reform and government revenue as he is comfortable propounding on the salutary issues of federalism , devolution of power, and democracy, all of which he had either sacrificed or risked his life and reputation for.

    While it is not clear what staggering role manifestos will play in the next polls, it will, however, matter how convincing the candidate is on some of the key drivers of his manifesto, key issues that conduce to the more abundant life for Nigerians. The election will not be about oratory or superficial expositions; it will be about how voters view the candidate’s competence and capacity, what alliances have been forged, and what political, electoral and geopolitical dynamics have been harnessed by the candidate to favour his chances. It will also in large part be about rotating power from the North to the South in order to guarantee and build a significant measure of stability into the system.

    Wike as paragon of speechifying

    For more than 30 minutes or so during the reception to thank Rivers for the Distinguished Award in Infrastructure Delivery conferred on him at the Nigeria Excellence in Public Service Award last week, Rivers State Nyesom Wike turned public speaking into entertainment of the first category. He had always enjoyed public speaking, and had in the past delivered sustained invectives against his opponents, whether they are politicians or traditional rulers, but last week’s was unexampled. There was of course nothing elevated about the speech, and indeed his speeches generally make no philosophical pretences whatsoever, and he never quite seems capable of the recoilless oratory many aficionados of oratory are accustomed to, but since political adversity unleashed him on the public and his talent for engaging public speaking began to soar, he has repeatedly reached for the stars.

    Imagine Mr Wike as a presidential candidate. In fact, imagine him as president. He is innovative, a gifted administrator. But he is also full of mirth; and his speeches arrest and tickle the midriff. His listeners are left on the edge of their seats when he begins to roll. If you nod your head too much in approbation, he could turn on you; and if you are impassive, he could also be instantly trenchant. But by and large, he makes delectable speeches, and those speeches even when they border on the irreverent do not undermine or negate his talents for the extraordinary. Last week, he delivered one such great example of public speaking, shooting one pearl after another – not one minute of boredom, nor one moment of hysteria. There are not many like him. Surely he would have bested his party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, in debate, ideas, or even administration. But, alas.