The Nation Newspaper

Category: Opinion

  • A parody of Shakespeare

    His name is now as household as the “report of fashion in proud Italy”. He is a leader of leaders; and a true leader at that; because he commands not from the rear, but he braces, with his chest the heat and the chill of all battles. He is the veritable “Knight of the Garter” of our contemporary politics; “valiant and virtuous, full of haughty courage, such as is grown to credit by the wars; not fearing death nor shrinking from distress, but always resolute in most extremes”. Time has proved that where “your ‘good’ word cannot advantage him, your slander never can en-damage him”.   He is petit and unassuming; as ‘modest as the dove’; as ‘temperate as the morning’; “for patience, he will prove a second Grissel”; his words are “bonds and his oaths are oracles”; his ‘truth’ is as the ‘truth’ of Martin Luther; it is ‘Marching on’; his code of battle as mosaic as Malcolm X’s: to “Forerun woe with woe”. His is “courage mounted with occasion”; and although he is not the war-mongering muckraker, yet he is one ready always “to parley or to war” -as the occasion demands. That is the stuff that ‘courage’ is made of: namely that although great men should not be “mutinous in peace” yet when the occasion demands they should be no less “bold at war”.

    He did once assert that the ruling political dynasty was a deeply rooted evil-iroko tree; hard put to uproot except it is axed ‘limbs’, ‘trunk’ and ‘torso’! And now he has proved to us himself that every ‘obstacle’ has odds to which it must yield; and that “many strokes, though with a little axe will hew down and fall the hardest timbered-oak”. Little did we know he was a prophet of his own time; – a voice in the wilderness of our troubled democracy, prophesying the looming fall of a ‘behemoth’.

    He is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Asiwaju and the Jagaban; once ‘Leader of the Opposition’; now the great ‘masquerade’ himself daring to be opposed –if any the courage have! “The blood stirs more” they say “to rouse a lion than to start a hare”; but who dares to rouse a lion must have more than a mortal’s measure of blood! Tinubu is the Hannibal of our time; the scourge of the ruling political dynasty –now in its inevitable throes of death. For device and tactic, he has proved another Hercules; for “grim aspect” and for knitted brow in moments of battle, he is the Hector of our age. Thus Tinubu is Hannibal, Hercules and Hector all in one!

    It is said that “When ‘Fortune’ means to men most good, ’She’ looks upon them with a threatening eye”. Tinubu did not, yesterday, walk the paved or gilded roads to the hill station of today’s renown; he has braved the dry and dusty weathers of Fortune’s threatening stare; and in reward of which both “Nature and Fortune have now joined to make him great”. He is now the “theme of Honour’s tongue, Sweet Fortune’s minion and her pride”; but more than else he is today, “among the groove of his rank, the straightest plant”.

    “Small curs” they say, “are not regarded when they grin; but great men tremble when the lion roars”. They are right Tinubu, you are truly a Lion in a rare den that is uniquely yours; but they are dead wrong, you are not ‘The Lion of Bourdillon’; that is a den too small for a Lion with your kind of Mane! The Asiwaju is more suited to ‘The Lord of the Nigerian Manor’ – that is a befitting ‘den’ truly your size.

    “Strong reasons make strong actions”; or so the Great Shakespeare would say. Once a troubled nation we did stand as “upon a rock environed by a wilderness of sea”, waiting for the surge of the ocean’s tempests to make of us a sumptuous meal; but just when we were hovering around the precipice, when it seemed almost as “far from help as Limbo is from bliss”, just then Tinubu, in a league of amity with our nation’s greats, alighted right in the firmament of our political woes”; for the inevitable to happen, – a battle long foretold between the army of ‘good’ and the forces of ‘evil’; between ‘change’ to a libertarian today and tomorrow and ‘continuity’ of the impunity and arbitrariness of old.

    Let the annals of our history bear witness, that in that battle the Jagaban “stirred as the time”, you were “fire for fire”, you “threatened the threatner and you outfaced the brow of bragging horror; you put the dauntless spirit of resolution; you glistened like the god of war when he intendeth to become the ‘field’!

    And behold when the jagged fields of battle are emptied; they attest to the deeds of great men: “blood hath bought blood; blows have answered blows; strength matched with strength; and power confronteth power. And the Jagaban, being last on the field, has become the Lord of it!

    Many had “cowardly fled” the battle ground, “not having struck one strike” at all; but you said to the enemy loud and clear: “A crown or else a glorious tomb; a sceptre or an earthly sepulchre”. It was that courage of conviction; that steadfastness in the face of danger that stands you, today above all mortals. And now your sacrifice has become a prologue to a beautiful symphony of liberation. Happily a ‘crown’ it will be and not a ‘glorious tomb’; a ‘sceptre’ you will have and never an ‘earthly sepulchre’.

    In 16 years it had been ‘nay, nay, nay; they would ‘not let my people go’; yet in just one moment of electoral ‘truth’ -right at the twilight of the month of March, they sang, perforce, another tune: ‘aye, aye’ they said in shame! And the Commander-In-Chief said: ‘I yield, I yield, I yield’; “Oh wonderful when the Devil tells the truth”, the whole truth and nothing but the truth!

    The Progressives will now sit on the throne of our own democracy, a feat purchased with the illiberal blood of anti-development reactionaries; the evil Party “that was wont to conquer others” but which hath now made “a shameful conquest of itself”. And behold Asiwaju, the ‘David’ with the crooked sling. He plucked the eye of vaunted pride; leaving almighty Goliath a giant heap of human debris aground. ‘Might’ which was once ‘right’, now gives way to ‘right’ which now is ‘might’.

    All thanks to the Jagaban,

    • Adamu is an Abuja-based Public Affairs Analyst.

  • Still on the matter of Buhari and AIT

    “If it were left on me to decide whether we should have a government without Newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.” – Thomas Jefferson

    The above quotation from Thomas Jefferson, a former President of the United States, underscores the importance of the media in a democracy. The media is the lifeline of any nation. It provides not only information on what may affect the normal human being in his day-to-day functioning, but also by other features that keep him informed of developments, national and international. In Nigeria, the press has always been in the forefront of the nation’s democratic struggle. From the colonial era to the post-independent era, the press has been a major rallying point for the people. It is to its credit that it has outlived many anti-people governments, though with many wounds and scars. In the dark days of the military, when men of courage and honour were few, the press, it was, that fought the military to a standstill.

    Considering its critical role of the press in a democracy, many have questioned the recent barring of African Independent Television, AIT, from covering the activities of Nigeria’s President-elect, Muhammadu Buhari. Bearing in mind how the press fared during his reign as a military dictator, many have thought and, perhaps, rightly so, that this might be the sign of things to come in the yet to be inaugurated Buhari led government. It is, however, heartwarming that the President-elect and, indeed, his political party, the All Progressive Congress, APC, have both dissociated themselves from the alleged ban. According to a statement from General Buhari, he was neither consulted nor informed about the AIT barring, and only became aware of the matter after the public uproar it generated.

    While one welcomes General Buhari and his party’s swift response to the AIT imbroglio, it is however, important o stress that gagging the press would not be in the best interest of any individual, organisation or government. Any attempt to gag the press is an affront on democracy. Restricting the press from performing its constitutional duty is completely against the spirit of liberty and the rule of law in a democracy. It would result in a slide into anarchy. If the media has impeded on the right of any individual or organisation in the discharge of its duty, there are constitutional ways of dealing with such. Taking recourse to constitutional means in addressing such would further help to strengthen democracy.

    However, in as much as the media plays a crucial role as the watchdog of the society and by implication the preserver of democracy, it behooves on the media to adhere strictly to ethical rules and conducts in the discharge of its functions. In a democracy, it is essential that the media exercises its duties with utmost responsibility. Democracy can only flourish with a responsible media. Being the watchdog of the society places huge responsibility on the media in terms of objectivity and non partisanship. Though, it is the right of every Nigerian to support a political party, but the media must not be seen to operate in manners that depict partiality. When this happens, democracy would be endangered.

    It is, perhaps, in this respect that one could probably affirm that the AIT erred. It is, for instance, a well know fact that the proprietor of AIT, Dr. Raymond Dopkesi, is a card carrying member of the ruling People Democratic Party, PDP. It was even alleged by the Edo State Governor, Comrade Adams Oshiomole, that Dopkesi, in the company of some soldiers during the presidential election, “attacked the electorate and disrupted elections at Auchi once they saw that the result being announced so far favoured APC and favoured Buhari”. Though, the media mogul has come out to deny the allegation, it has however cast aspersion on the reliability of his media organisation, AIT. Many have labeled the AIT has a PDP megaphone based on its perceived  biased reportage of political developments in the country and the scratchy documentaries it beamed on the President –elect, General Buhari. As it has been earlier emphasised, Dr Dopkesi is backed by the constitution to support any political party of his choice. The snag, however, is that it would be unprofessional and immoral to turn a national network such as AIT into a propaganda platform of any of the country’s political parties. This is against the ethics of journalism.

    The documentary aired on the AIT against General Buhari has quite a number of wrong information. For instance, the AIT documentary claimed that it was the Buhari administration that expelled Ghanaians from Nigeria. The truth, however, is that it was the Shehu Shagari administration that actually repatriated Ghanaians and other foreigners from Nigeria. Also, the issue of Gloria Okon disappearing under Buhari’s administration was also false as she disappeared under General Ibrahim Babangida regime .Also, the assertion that Fela’s mother died under Buhari was false because she died after Kalakuta republic was attacked by ‘unknown soldiers’  during Obasanjo’s government in 1978. One also wonders what the death of two of Buhari’s daughters has to do with  Buhari’s ability to rule.

    Expectedly, Dr. Dopkesi has come out in defence of his organization’s role in the just concluded general elections with a justification that the Daar Communications, owners of AIT, is a commercial entity and therefore reserves the right to run anything it considers worthy of being televised. He said there is also a right of response available to anyone who feels strongly about any matter broadcast by the station. He said: “What is obviously very clear is the fact that AIT believes that the historical information about the President-elect that were ran, were factually correct. Nothing was done to defame him or impinge on his character or integrity.” But then, based on the several inaccurate information contained in the said documentary, it is certain that Dr. Dopkesi was only being economical with the truth.

    The Code of Ethics guiding the practice of journalism in Nigeria demands that every journalist to ensure a strict adherence to the highest levels of ethics and professionalism in carrying out their duties. One of the main responsibilities of the press is to present and defend the truth as every scientific structure can only be sustained by the truth.  When the media trades in lies and half truths, it only does so to the peril of the society. It is the sacred duty of the media to have a perception and a goal of standard morality and ethical revolution if its performance is to have the expected impact on the society it serves. This is the expectation of the citizenry, especially where morality and professionalism are allowed to dictate the pace.

     

    • Ogunbiyi is of the Features Unit, Ministry of Information and Strategy, Alausa, Ikeja.

  • Change and the burden of expectations

    The victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its ‘change’ mantra has brought with it a huge burden of expectations from Nigerians. However, before the presidential elections and its aftermath – especially the euphoria of ousting an incumbent president becloud the important tasks that lies ahead, it is imperative that the full import of this seismic shift be appreciated by all Nigerians. This article is therefore a call to action by all Nigerians towards ensuring that true change is delivered, as the Nigerian public may soon realize that change without substance is utterly useless!

    I believe the notion of change and harnessing the multi-faceted expectations of many Nigerians regarding what it means, is the biggest challenge that the President-elect and his party now needs to focus their attention on, rather than the more egregious issues of patronage as our political class is wont to engage once elections are won.

    A look at the APC manifesto reveals a shopping list of broad policy statements, without enough punch and clarity as to how the expectations of Nigerians will be met and managed in key public policy areas. Education, health, the economy, job creation and youth employment all have broad policy statements that stop short of being mere rhetoric and a little ‘more of the same’ story from previous administrations.

    In my view, managing citizen expectations in the next four years will be tough considering that in its current form, the President-elect and his party’s manifesto have offered no new benchmarks for delivering on the change promised during the campaigns.

    This call for a more strategic approach to meeting citizen expectations stems from the fact that leadership performance in the public sector is an ambiguous, multi-dimensional and complex concept for which there are two main classes of performance measures – output and outcome measures.

    Output measures relate to public agencies’ organizational efficiency (output) – how many kilometres of road are constructed, how many more new schools/hospitals do we have for defined amounts of Naira budget etc., while effectiveness (outcome) measures are in terms of the ease of access, and quality of public goods and services received by citizens – how long does it take to see a doctor, student teacher ratios or other citizen satisfaction effects, to mention a few.

    The critical point these issues raise is that for the new administration to successfully manage the expectation of citizens and be seen to have ‘performed’, it must clearly articulate a service delivery strategy that converts its current ‘shopping list’ into a measurable set of service standards for which citizens are able to hold it accountable for performance. This is no mean feat, and requires a commitment from both the incoming government and the people working together as critical stakeholders to achieve a stable society in a complex governance environment.

    Achieving desired governance outputs and outcomes requires that pertinent questions regarding Nigeria’s fiscal federalism be re-examined and appropriate answers demanded at every level of government. This evaluation is critical in view of the political economy of public service delivery in Nigeria which places different governance outputs in the different domains in our supposed three tiers of government (Federal, State and Local government).

    The implication of this lopsided federalism is a lack of clear delineation in accountability for specific service delivery outputs which has resulted in critical sectors of national life being left in ‘no man’s land’. A case in point is the national road safety and management strategy that leaves Nigerian roads in the unenviable position of being the third most unsafe roads in the world – according to a recent WHO Global status report on road safety. When this statistic is juxtaposed against the multiplicity of functions between the state governments-led Vehicle Inspection Services (VIO) and the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC), it becomes clear that inefficiencies in public sector agencies account for an unprecedented burden of service failure, from which no nation can extricate itself unless radical changes in public accountability are implemented.

    An unbundling of service delivery bottlenecks within the complex layers of our peculiar federal state will be key to successful change in all the sectors of our national life begging for change. This should inform a restructuring of the civil services in a way that aligns national priorities with specific agency mandates. Parallel and duplicating functions that abound in our current public service agencies and remain avenues for inefficiency of production must be tackled with the same zeal as corruption and insecurity.

    In reality, the changes desired by the Nigerian populace can only be delivered when services delivered within the public sector (both civil and public services) reflect a harmonization of the yearnings and expectations of citizens from government at all levels. How effectively the new governing party achieves this marriage of expectations and bridge the gaps will determine its success as change agents.

    Putting service delivery at the heart of governance reflects an understanding that the perception of government/governance effectiveness, is directly related to the experience of citizens when they access or are unable to access public goods and services. Unfortunately in Nigeria, this connection has in recent times been reduced to ‘stomach infrastructure’ – made available only during electioneering seasons. This is where the real change must happen for governance to be meaningful, in spite of high sounding numbers about economic growth and perceived national prosperity that leaves the poor feeling poorer. Effective and efficient service delivery is the magic glue that closes the expectation gap between government and the governed.

    In order to succeed in its change agenda, the APC and the President-elect in actualizing their defined objective of instituting a set of ‘progressive social welfare programmes’ must seek to build a more robust public accountability framework under which each layer of government can be held accountable for failure of service delivery.

    It is only by setting clear performance standards in policy implementation; standards derived from wide consultations with citizens as critical stakeholders, that the new administration will set a new bar for meeting citizen expectations which currently range from the most simple, to sometimes unrealistic demands.

     

    • Oke is Executive Director, Centre for Sustainable Leadership

  • Give Jonathan his due

    In the Sunday April 12, edition of the Sunday Vanguard, Obi Nwakanma expressed the view that President Goodluck Jonathan’s ready concession of victory to General Muhammadu Buhari in the March 28, 2015 Presidential elections “has been frankly over-analyzed in the local and international media”. He proceeded to state: “But those of us who are a bit more historically minded should know that concessions have been made in power by those who consider Nigeria far above their personal interest. It is on record that Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe won the 1957 elections, for which the British colonial Governor-General, Sir James Robertson, first setting the standard of electoral manipulations and gerrymandering in Nigeria, invited Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa to come first to head the government at the centre even before the votes had all fully come in 1957 for the first home rule government. Azikiwe conceded and bid his time even though his party (w)as compensated by having the highest number of ministers in 1957 – 60. In the independence elections of 1959, again Azikiwe’s party had the highest plurality of votes nationwide and would very easily have formed the National Government with the Action Group. But against a threat of Northern secession, much like today’s Boko Haram, compelled Azikiwe to agree to join the Northern People Party in a “government of national unity”, one from which Awo’s Action Group opted out, but which along the road torpedoed the AG in due course”.

    All the foregoing statements and claims by Nwakanma are most incorrect. It is curious and worrisome that such grotesque falsification of Nigeria’s political history was made by someone who claimed to be “more historically minded”. It is also unnecessary and avoidable because the facts are available and easily accessible in various documents at the National Archives. They were also published in the 5th Edition of Nigeria: A Complete Fact-finder in 2004. It is very important to correct the falsehood presented by Nwakanma because, for far too long, the public especially our youth have been fed with lies about Nigeria’s history, and this has promoted disaffection among our communities. The correct relevant facts may be summarized as follows:

    In 1951 the Macpherson constitution was proclaimed, and led to elections in the newly created Houses of Assembly which ushered in participation by Nigerians in governance all over the groups of provinces.

    On January 29, 1952 the Federal House of Representatives met for the first time with members selected  by and from the Houses of Assembly, and the House of Chiefs in Ibadan and Kaduna. Regional governments were set-up in the groups of provinces and were controlled by the NCNC (East), NPC (North) and AG (West). Four Central Ministers were appointed from each of the three regions.

    On March 30, 1953 Anthony Enahoro(AG) moved a private member’s motion for Nigeria to become independent in 1956. Alhaji Bello (Sardauna of Sokoto and leader of the NPC) moved an amendment to replace “1956” with “as soon as possible”. This led to uproar in the House, and the Governor, Sir John Macpherson, threatened to sack any minister who participated in the debate. In reaction to this, the four AG members (Oba Adesoji Aderemi, Chief S.L. Akintola, Chief Bode Thomas and Chief Arthur Prest) walked out of the chamber and resigned their appointments. Their NCNC colleagues from the East also walked out of the chamber but did not resign from the cabinet. A constitutional crisis ensued.

    When it was not possible to replace the AG ministers Mr. Oliver Lyttleton, then British Secretary for the Colonies, came to Lagos to try to resolve the impasse. After a series of meetings in Lagos and London, adjustments were made to the 1951 Macpherson constitution which resulted in the creation of semi-autonomous regions (each with its own constitution, coat of arms etc), and a new Federal Constitution which took effect from October 1, 1954.

    The Federal House of Representatives with members selected from the regions was dissolved, and direct elections into a new House were held on October 11, 1954 throughout the country. In the Western Region, the NCNC won 23 seats as against 18 seats for the AG. That was the first time in Nigeria that a political party lost elections in region where it was in power. It is important to emphasize that the regional assemblies were not dissolved, so the AG’s control of the Western Regional government was not affected. The defeat of the AG in the federal elections in the region was a result of opposition to the introduction of the Capitation Tax in 1953 in order to generate funds for the Free Education programme which was scheduled to begin in January 1955. However the AG won the subsequent regional elections held in May 1956, some 18 months after the start of the free education scheme, with 49 seats to NCNC’s 31.

    Because it won the October 1954 elections in the Eastern and Western regions, it was the NCNC that nominated ministers to represent both regions in the Federal government – Raymond Njoku, Kingsley Mbadiwe and Matthew Mbu from the East, and Adegoke Adelabu, Kola Balogun and Festus Okotie-Eboh from the West. The NPC nominated Tafawa Balewa, Inuwa Wada and Mohammadu Ribadu from the North. Balewa became primus inter pares because his party had the highest number of 79 seats in the House, while the NCNC had 56 seats, the AG 23, and others had a total of 17 seats.

    On August 5, 1957 self-government was granted to the Eastern and Western Regions; the Northern Region declined because it was not ready for it – in a dramatic announcement on August 30, 1957 the Governor-General, Sir James Robertson (who had succeeded Macpherson in 1954) named Balewa as Prime Minister to head a broad-based National Government which would midwife Nigeria’s independence.

    No Elections were held in 1957. Contrary to Nwakanma’s claim, there was nothing like Azikiwe conceding the prime minister-ship to Balewa. Balewa’s cabinet was a carryover from the 1954 elections with Malam Bukar Dipscharima replacing Inuwa Wada, Aja Wachukwu replacing Mbu, and J.M. Johnson replacing Adegoke Adelabu. In addition S. L. Akintola and Ayo Rosiji were appointed into the broad-based national government.

    The next elections into the Federal House of Representatives were held on December 12, 1959. Whereas Awolowo and Azikiwe resigned as Premier of their respective regions to vie for seats in the Federal House, the Sardauna did not. Chief Akintola and Dr. Michael Okpara took over as Premier of the Western and Eastern Regions respectively. In the elections the NPC won 134 seats, NCNC/NEPU 89 seats, AG 73 seats and Others 16 seats. Thus no political party had the simple majority to form a new government.

    The leadership of the AG sought an alliance with the NCNC but the latter preferred to team-up with the NPC. In the ensuing horse-trading, Balewa retained his position as Prime Minister and Azikiwe emerged  as Governor-General at independence in 1960, a post which proved to be ceremonial. Azikiwe did not and could not have conceded anything to Balewa whose party won 45 more seats than the NCNC/NEPU.

    President Jonathan’s concession of victory to General Buhari before the official announcement by INEC is the first such occurrence in Nigeria whether at the federal, regional or state level. He must be given due credit for this irrespective of whatever analysis by any individual or group at local international level.

    Dr. Azikiwe never conceded electoral victory to anyone at any time. On the contrary, despite incontrovertible documentary evidence, persistent lies have continued to be peddled about the 1951 elections in Western Nigeria which the NCNC lost to the AG. Some of the admirers of Dr. Azikiwe should note that inadvertent or deliberate distortion of Nigeria’s political history tarnish rather than burnish his legacy.

    • Prof. Oyediran, former Vice-Chancellor, University of Ibadan and Prince Aderemi, wrote from Ibadan.

  • May Day in a transition year

    I  salute the working men and women of Nigeria and the world on the occasion of today’s May Day.  This year marks the 34th anniversary of workers’ day as a public holiday in Nigeria and 35th anniversary in Kano, the first state during the second Republic (under the governorship of the late Abubakar Rimi of the People Redemption Party (PRP)) which declared the day as holiday in 1980. Of course, the observance of May Day is long dated; almost a century and half. In Chicago, police opened fire killing several demonstrating workers demanding for eight-hour working day. Subsequent workers’ protest, led to the death of some seven policemen. The police, without evidence, accused eight leaders of the Chicago workers movement of killing the police, convicting all. Four of the workers’ leaders were executed, and three were given life imprisonment! And that was a ‘democratic’ America which had proclaimed a libertarian constitution but without due respect for workers’ rights. On May 1, 1889 the International Workers’ Congress in Paris declared the day as Workers Day in memory of the historic struggle of the Chicago workers!

    This year’s May Day, like in 2007 and 2011, is taking place in an interesting time of political transition with all its controversies and challenges. Taking place against the background of a democratic transition, the critical question is; of what relevance is labour to Nigeria’s 2015 transition process?  Globally, the debate had long shifted from the unhelpful and uncritical question as to whether labour had a role to play in a political process or not to a more useful perspective on what and how labour could participate in political process. The success of the 2015 elections is also shared by the working people who either as candidates or electorate participated in all the elections that have produced a President-elect, governor-elects and hundreds of legislators.  Special greetings to both the outgoing President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd), the third and fourth democratically elected presidents, respectively, of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. I bear witness (because I am involved!)  that organized labour appreciated their mutual statesmanship and patriotism, avoidance of despair and unhelpful  negative triumphalism after the historic free and fair March 28 Presidential Election commendably conducted by the Professor Attahiru Jega-led INEC. What then is the labour’s dimension of this transition? History records it that the out-going President Goodluck Jonathan commendably guaranteed freedom of association in line with International Labour Organisation (ILO)’s freedom of Association and Protection of the Right to Organise Convention 87 and Protection against discrimination for joining a trade union and taking collective action and Right to Organise and Collective Bargaining Convention, C098. The Jonathan presidency also improved on the legal minimum wage from N5,500  to N18,000, amended the 2004 Pension Act to increase the rates of contribution and inclusive of informal sector,  introduced Employees Compensation Scheme (ECS) which provides adequate compensation for employees who suffer injuries/diseases and stopped unacceptable incessant fuel price increases after mass protests of 2012.

    However, economic growth under Jonathan did not translate into mass jobs. Indeed many factories collapsed due to poor electricity supply, smuggling, high interest rates and devalued Naira leading to massive unemployment and erosion of the purchasing power of the workers.  Like other Nigerians, working people look forward with excitement to the swearing in of General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd), GCFR as the fourth democratically-elected President on May 29. The President-elect must consolidate on the positive labour market policies of President Jonathan and correct the negative measures as identified above. Apart from endemic corruption, the greatest task at hand is the urgent need to transform a mono/oil dependent-economy to a diversified industrialized economy. The President-elect has commendably made revival of textile and garment industry as part of his party’s overall strategy to re-industrialize the county and create mass employment for the millions of unemployed. The incoming administration is right to seek to reinvent this sector which has propelled newly industrialized countries in recent times such as China, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia among others. Nigeria boasts of a large polyester base. Combined with the 170 million population rich in fashion and clothing and huge labour force of some 70 million potential workers, Nigeria has the potential of producing 1.2 billion metres of cloth per annum and create at least three million direct jobs in textile sector! The President-elect must realise that past presidents, including Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan made similar pledges to revive textiles with innovative policies including import bans and intervention fund.

    The major threat to the realization of the great potential of Nigeria in textile production is high influx of counterfeit and smuggled goods. Over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s huge market size is dominated by smuggled and counterfeit goods, killing local companies in Kano, Kaduna, Lagos, Guzau, Aba and Port Harcourt, and millions of direct and indirect associated local jobs. Smuggling denies the government the much needed revenue in unpaid custom duties. The real acid test of Buhari’s anti- corruption lies in how he frontally confronts smuggling. All nations want to employ their youths, produce goods and services, overcome poverty and underdevelopment.  Recently, the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (MITI) launched a comprehensive national Cotton, Textile and Garment policy within the overall new Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP). The in-coming Buhari administration should adopt this policy and ensure its prompt implementation.

    Here is wishing Nigerians Happy May Day!

    •Aremu mni, writes from Kaduna

  • Half empty or half full; story of S/African businesses in Nigeria

    With a population of 170 million people out of Africa’s 903 million total headcount, which represents one-fifth of the continent’s population, Nigeria is a huge paradox for global investors looking for opportunities in Africa.

    When Nigeria’s huge potential is juxtaposed with unsavoury conditions which are detrimental to investment, such as corruption, excessive bureaucratic bottlenecks and infrastructure challenges, an investor is likely to face a huge dilemma. For instance, the World Bank’s 2013 “Doing Business” survey puts Nigeria at 185th out of the 189 countries it surveyed on ease of getting electricity. In addition to shortfalls in power generation, transmission and distribution, transportation systems and other critical support infrastructure are also relatively under-developed. This, coupled with the endemic corruption and the bureaucratic red-tape make doing business in Nigeria tougher than in other climes.

    Beyond these challenges, however, Nigeria offers a basket of opportunities for the intrepid.  Nigeria is currently rated as the biggest economy in Africa, accounting for 26% of the economic output in sub-Saharan Africa and over 70% of the economic output in the ECOWAS region.  Except for the year 2015, which has seen a reduction in growth projections because of falling oil prices and the anticipated crisis from the general elections, Nigeria has maintained an average year on year economic growth of 6% in the last 10 years. Other macro-economic variables have also remained relatively stable over this period.

    Despite these positive indices, business in Nigeria is admittedly tricky, hence the departure of a lot of European and American trans-national corporations and the refusal of others to   operate in Nigeria. Aside core investors in commodity and extractive industries – and a couple of players in manufacturing, who had been operating  in Nigeria before its independence from Great Britain in 1960, a lot of European and American Technology and Consumer Goods businesses do not dare to take the plunge.

    The loss of these European and American companies is the gain of South African companies. Operating in Nigeria despite the huge challenges, they are reaping huge returns on their investment. While the West sees the glass as half empty, Chinese and South African companies see the glass as half full and are therefore coming to the party with enthusiasm and a “can-do” spirit.

    Despite the infrastructure challenges, bureaucratic bottlenecks and corruption often cited as the bane of investing in Nigeria, South African businesses appear to understand the Nigerian business environment than their Western counterparts.

    From the retail end, with players such as Shoprite and Game, to Hotel and Hospitality with the Protea Hotel chain (which was recently acquired by Marriot, the American Hotel chain), to Media and Cinema with companies like MultiChoice and Nu-Metro, banking and financial services – Stanbic IBTC Bank, First Rand Bank, Old Mutual and Nedbank (which recently acquired a sizable stake in Ecobank, the Nigeria led Pan- Africa  Banking Franchise), and other mid-sized businesses dotting the Nigerian business landscape, South Africa today stands as one of the major players in the Nigerian economy.

    The curious though unspoken question on the lips of international venture capitalists and investors, is how come the South Africans seem to be succeeding where others are failing? This question comes against the background of the noted challenges in the Nigerian environment which are compounded by the absence of a stable policy environment.

    The history of international investments in Nigeria before the return of democracy was not particularly savoury, what with the indigenization decree of the 1970’s under the Military governments of Murtala Mohammed and General Olusegun Obasanjo, which saw a lot of foreign business interests in Nigeria ceding their stakes to Nigerian shareholders in a push for the localization of multi-national businesses in Nigeria. This move saw the exit of Shell Petroleum and British Petroleum from the down-stream sector of Nigeria’s lucrative Oil and Gas market.

    As if the set-backs of the 1970’s were not enough, the structural imbalance of the 1980’salso saw the plummeting of industrial capacity in Nigeria. This situation arose largely from the rationing of foreign exchange under a corrupt and highly politicized import licence order. Given this scenario, there were frantic calls for structural reforms. These reforms were soon ripe and ready, following the huge debts which Nigeria incurred from the London and Paris club of Creditors.

    Initial reforms were thus undertaken in the late 80’s to early 90’s, tailored towards budgetary tightening and fiscal discipline with a view to raising industrial capacity in order to reduce dependence on imported finished goods. Prodded further by the Breton Woods Institutions, to undertake more reforms, given its huge sovereign debt, the Nigerian Military government under General Ibrahim Babangida, announced more fiscal reforms; starting with the Second-tier Foreign Exchange Market, which saw the devaluation of the naira, and the Structural Adjustment Programme which engendered a high-level of fiscal tightening in a bid to refocus the economy.

    As all these reforms were going on, the Nigerian economy was still largely perceived as unattractive to Foreign Investors in Europe and America who only saw opportunities in the commodities and extractive industries and were uninterested in deepening their involvement in the Nigerian manufacturing and retail sectors having been scarred by the indigenization decree promulgated by the Murtala/Obansanjo Military regime. The conventional wisdom at the time was therefore to stay aloof to the reforms and the liberalisation of critical sectors of the Nigerian economy that followed thereafter.

    The South Africans may have cashed in on the opportunities availed by the liberal regime bought on by the new democratic order in Nigeria and are making a kill where the west did not initially see any prospects, but there are  a couple of things South Africa is also not getting right.

    One of these is the tendency of South African firms to only trade among themselves rather than patronize local options in Nigeria. It is usually alleged that MTN Nigeria, in giving out its banking and collection mandate, will prioritize Stanbic IBTC Bank, a bank with South African interest, above local Nigerian banks. The same is said of the other South African businesses. This situation has tended to increase the mistrust between Nigerian local businesses and their South African counterparts. Given this situation, the prevailing feeling within the Nigerian business community is that the South Africans are not returning the friendly gesture of Nigerian businesses and consumers towards South African interests and are therefore not displaying ‘brotherly’ love towards Nigerian businesses.

    Aside from this, there is also the issue of the monopolistic tendency of South African firms which creates industrial tensions, especially in the telecoms and pay- TV segments of the Nigerian economy where South African behemoths like MTN and MultiChoice are dominant. Accusations are rife about the deployment of arm-twisting tactics in the bid by these players to retain their dominant positions. Beyond this, there are also the allegations of over-pricing of services in Nigeria, in comparison to the prices these firms charge in South Africa.

    Furthermore, there is also the issue of the non-reciprocation of Nigeria’s open door policy in South Africa. The poser often raised by cynical Nigerian business analysts is, ‘which major Nigerian company has made any inroads worth mentioning in South Africa even though South Africans are making a huge kill in Nigeria?’

    Complaints about the non-reciprocity of the open door policy to Nigerian businesses in South Africa often creates inter-government friction, to the extent that  bi-lateral relations between the two countries was nearly damaged in 2012 when 125 Nigerian business travellers to South Africa were denied entry into South Africa for not having valid Yellow Fever certificates. The Nigeria government, in retaliation, also expelled 56 South Africans. This situation led to huge tensions which were later resolved with the easing of travel restrictions

    The popular view that Africa stands to benefit more from trade among Africans than  trading with Europe, America and Asia rings true when one considers the progress made so far in  Nigeria’s partnership with South Africa and the benefits that have accrued there-from. However, more effort is required to take this to the next level.

    •Okusaga is Managing Director of a Lagos based Public Relations Consultancy

  • Kogi and the imperative of change

    As the All Progressives Congress (APC) is coming out of the euphoria of the victory recorded at the polls and the Peoples Democratic Party is recuperating from the shock of defeat especially given their delusion and  egoism, the horrendous  task ahead has dawned on the APC. I refer to the task of nation-building and re-uniting Nigerians divided along ethnic and religious leaning and  towards achieving a common goal of peace and development.

    It was Nelson Mandela who said  in 1994 after his victory at the poll in the first non-racial elections in post apartheid South Africa that “ it is after climbing a hill that you will realize that there are many mountains to climb”. Mandela realized that a lot is expected with change. Having fought against an apartheid system instituted in 1948 after the victory of the NP (National Party) led by Dr. D Malan, a system that dehumanised and denigrated the black and colored people  in South Africa, a system that oppressed and repressed the native people of South Africa,  Mandela and his comrades realized that  there is the need to heal the wounds and injustices of the apartheid regime. Mandela was magnanimous in victory, as he emphasized on national reconciliation and forgiveness through the Truth and Reconciliation Commission led by Archbishop Desmond Tutu.

    In the light of the foregoing and in line with the existing realities in Nigeria, there is an urgent task of nation-building and national reconciliation. Nigeria needs to be purged of corruption and the indignity of  impunity. Nigeria needs a general overhaul of the security system to tackle the menace of the dreaded Boko Haram terrorists. The economy needs to be diversified,  and the naira strengthened  through sound and potent economic policies. There is an urgent need to create job opportunities and work upon the existing progress made  in the agricultural sector. Corruption, like a cancer has over the years thwarted our growth and crippled the economy. Public corruption has now become the norm of public service. Corruption has to be exterminated through harsh punitive measures  to deter public office holders from corrupt acts. All these and many more are the issues the All Progressives Congress President-elect, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari will have to contend with and with the help of God, surmount.

    In Kogi State, the election result was a product of the collective will of the people. The people voted out the three PDP senators from the three senatorial zones and in the House of Representatives.  The success of the APC in Nigeria and Kogi is not a fluke.It is the result of selfless leadership and purposeful commitment of the party leaders and members. Many thanks to the national party leaders and party stalwarts.

    Sincere gratitude goes to the father of the broom revolution in Kogi State, Prince Abubakar Audu the former governor of Kogi State, a man known for his verve and vivacity, with a cult like followership. Though often times misquoted, loathed  and misinterpreted, he remains an enigma and a puzzle for the few who profiteer from the current clueless regime in Kogi State. The people’s prince is known for his strong political ideology. When others quit the party for fear of victimization and oppression, Prince Audu stood his ground, fearless, unbowed and unbroken despite his persecution in the hands of anti-graft agencies who for many years acted the script of their paymasters. He remained in the party to grow and nurture it. He remains a shining example of the few politicians who have shown undiluted patriotism and loyalty to the party. His charm and charisma, guts and untiring spirit has always endeared him to the people that loves him so much. Many thanks to all party leaders and all ambassadors of Change!

    The people have never been happier like now. For all the times Prince Audu  has been rigged out, the people will repay him  with their votes when the time come. My hearty congratulations to all the APC victors in the election in Kogi State and in Nigeria in general.

    The “broom revolution” is not over, the wind of change that swept like the northern sirocco is not over. The governorship election  is yet to be conducted. The people of Kogi State are still ready with their PVCs to end this  circle of  bloodless revolution and effect the much needed change in the political space of Kogi State. When it is time, we will flush out the PDP and the titular governor  of Kogi State  that has for long crippled the state economy, plundered her  resources, deepened poverty and under developed the state through inept, clueless policies, and corrupt leadership orchestrated by the PDP.

    The “People’s Prince “ is currently under pressure from the good people of Kogi State to contest for the December gobernatorial elections in Kogi;  the good people Kogi State are asking for change. They don’t want to be left out in this circle of change that is sweeping across the country. It is our prayer that the people’s prince will  throw in the hat to save the state from imminent collapse, rot and ruin. When South Africa needed healing and rejuvenation, they called on Mandela, when Singapore needed economic turnaround and development, they  tapped Lee Kwan Yew, Kogites  need a leader like Prince Abubakar Audu to save her from the doldrums of under-development and the conundrums of hopelessness and poverty. It will be a rescue mission, one necessitated by a hunger of a people for a visionary leader to bring back the old glory of the state. Let the man with the “midas touch” do it. Let the “ People’s prince” do it.

    • Comrade Ohiemi is former Personal Assistant to Audu, former governor of Kogi State.

  • Saraki’s quest for Senate top job

    The victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) at the 2015 polls has necessitated many permutations on the shape of government that will come into being as from May 29. One of the issues is what kind of therapy would the Buhari government be putting forward to address some of our pressing national problems. Gradually, the attention of Nigerians is shifting to the National Assembly which its current leaders will vacate their seats at the end of the Seventh Assembly in June. Given the majority status that the APC has now acquired in the two chambers of the National Assembly, the expectation and following the tradition, the party will produce both the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Senate President.

    Meanwhile, going by the mood of the nation, the issue of who becomes the next Senate President in June has generated concern and all kinds of calculations have appeared in the political circles and the media. Although the final shape of what would happen have not emerged, two names, among others, have featured prominently on the list of those aspiring to succeed David Mark from the North Central Zone. This piece is however concerned with the candidacy of Senator Bukola Saraki. While I agree that all ranking senators from the preferred geo-political zone are entitled to the seat, the thrust of this piece is on Saraki, a foremost candidate from the North Central Zone.

    He is a political giant in Kwara state where he has, in two elections and in spite of stiff opposition, led his political parties to victory in 2011 and 2015 and thus establishing himself as a strong political force in the state. I must confess that when he joined other PDP stalwarts to walk out of the PDP Convention in 2013 and later defected to APC, I was one of those who had expressed some reservations on how he could emerge from the crisis without losing some political mileage. But as events have shown, he did his calculations well before taking the political risk. The end of the two rounds of elections this year  has firmly established his total control over the politics of Kwara State as all the posts/seats contested for were won by the candidates of APC. What this means is that he has a solid home base and his position as a leader of APC cannot be contested. This naturally should qualify him for the post of Senate President.

    Shortly before the presidential election his sister, Gbemi Saraki, is already giving a good backing to her brother in consolidating the hold of Bukola Saraki on the politics of Kwara state. This represents a significant political statement and stronger support base for Dr. Bukola Saraki given Gbemi’s considerable influence in the Senate where she had served as a two-term Senator.

    Any one familiar with Yar’Adua presidency would recall the immense role the then Governor Saraki had played in stabilizing the regime. As a loyal friend of the late President and at a time when many had deserted the late President on account of his ill-health, he made some visits to Saudi Arabia and remained a friend to the President until he breathed his last. The import of this is that the President-elect as well as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu can rely on Senator Saraki to play even a greater role in stabilizing the in-coming Buhari government.

    The now famous Doctrine of Necessity that brought the second Acting President to power in the country in February 2010 was greatly facilitated by the Nigerian Governors Forum that was headed by the then Governor Bukola Saraki. The kind of crisis that later gripped the forum may not have happened if Saraki were still to be in the saddle based on his track record of always being lucky at resolving political conflicts. This trait still endears him to his peers, former governors who have memorable occasions to share on his ability to fix problems.

    One recalls that a coup of sort was hatched by some members of the Forum in 2010 apparently to humiliate Governor Saraki out of office on account of his presidential ambition. Surprisingly, both Adams Oshiomhole  and  Raji Fashola of the defunct ACN  resisted and spoke against the unorthodox way of changing the chairman of the forum  by rendering  the efforts of Governors Gabriel Suswan and Gbenga Daniel, the purported beneficiary of the conspiratorial effort, a nullity. He survived the premeditated attacks and retained his chair of the Governors Forum. Such a man that is adept at boardroom politics is needed at this point in time to build bridges across party lines for the smooth take-off of the Buhari government. He can be relied upon to work through complex political situations to arrive at a seamless consensus. No doubt, some challenges await the APC in managing its electoral successes and the kind of officiating personnel that are put forward will go a long way in giving Nigerians the needed succour and relief.

    As a Senator, he has been known to back popular causes. One of these is the lid that he blew open on the huge and largely unaccounted money that was being spent on oil subsidy. The disclosure especially the aspects dealing with budgetary provisions necessarily made him to enter into a political bad weather with the consequential inconveniences but he showed character and conviction. This made Senator Adefuye Adeyeye to commend him on the floor of the Senate for his bravery and he went ahead to draw a comparison between what Dr. Bukola Saraki did by raising alarm on the overshot of budgets on subsidy provisions and what his father, Dr. Olusola Saraki, had done under the Second Republic on the issue of missing oil money.

    To be sure, Dr. Saraki has a rich credential and the relevant experience to become the next Senate President. With his network of friends in the Senate and among the ranks of ex-governors who are increasingly finding the Senate more attractive coupled with the fact that he was one of the architects of the APC’s victory at the polls, he will add value to the party and be a good reference and rallying point for PDP’s members who defected into the APC. The new ruling party in the country has more to gain by giving the nod toDr. Saraki to fly its flag as the next Senate President.

    I am aware of the issue of shortcomings that some people have raised concerning the candidates that are in contention for the position. My position, however, is that the contest for the position of Senate Presidency is not all about shortcomings. Rather, it is about harnessing all potentials of our politicians for the greater interest of Nigeria.  It is in this regard that one argues that it was the potential that people saw in the current Senate President, David Mark that made him to be preferred for the job in 2007. The issue of Benue politics came up. Some others had complained about his elitist orientation borne out of his remarks on telephone users in the country.  Notwithstanding, on the aggregate, David Mark has made the North Central Zone and indeed, Nigeria proud by his sterling performance. Let the baton now pass on to Saraki to consolidate on the good performance of David Mark as Senate President.

    It is possible for Senator Saraki to impact on the office by bringing more substance and relevance to it. There is also a high chance that the broad mindedness that the office requires will rub positively on him in a manner that would change some aspects of his politics that are distasteful to the people. He deserves the support of all citizens especially people of the North Central geo-political zone, a part of the north that he had the rare privilege of serving as the chair of the Northern Governors’ Forum between 2003 and 2007.

     

    • Saliu, is of the Department of Political Science, University of Ilorin.

  • Tamuno: The sacred canopy of our rainbow coalition – 2

    Symbolically, Professor Tamuno was one of the few lines in the colors of rainbow, the arch in the middle that formed in the sky for us to see and admire. He constituted a shield linked with the cosmos, the extraordinary being of colours, dispersed by the sun’s light, blessed by water droplets from the far sky. We cannot chase the rainbows, as they are too far high in the sky, but Baba Tekena Tamuno brought the lines and colours closer to us, making them reachable and touchable, and ever projecting as well as displaying his light and sunshine.

    He was not easy to imitate, and impossible to clone, for no one can ever garner the rainbow of medals that adorned his walls; and no one can ever come close to the rainbow of love that filled his heart and chest. We have to keep struggling to reach the silver-lining of his illustrious clouds and the gold located at the end of his rainbow. I won’t even try, for his resilience is uncommon, his patience is legendary, and I am too small to learn at his feet.

    A master of long narratives, his nuanced conclusions were open-ended, elastic, and never threatening. Our personality can be embedded in our intellectual projects and self affirmation, as it is possible to link Wole Soyinka’s iconoclasm to Ogun, the Yoruba god of iron. Professor Tamuno was probably seeking to imitate some aged saints or, like a riverine man, he was guided by the calmness of the sea. The rough waves possibly frightened him, and he rather stayed at the banks. That calmness of the sea crystalized into a “Tekena formation” that became defined as the “Tamuno’s humility.”

    There was one Saint Humility during the European Medieval Ages, a real saint, not an imaginary one. In fact, I am suspicious that Professor Tamuno, at one time or the other might have read about this saint! For, as those who knew him well, as I did, would attest to, he had multiple faces to his personality: one face that looked to spiritual forces, humbling himself before God and His agents. Grace becomes superior to one’s achievements, as Professor Tamuno magnified his own limitations. But there was also the leveling equality with fellow men, in which he constantly lowered his being and self in relation to his colleagues, superiors, and subordinates.

    Being agreeable is no sign of weakness. The definition of a place in history, in space and time, is a recognition of one’s influence. Walking gently, to avoid hubris, does not compromise pride. Recording a life history devoid of narcissism is no limitation to being grounded in humilitas. As one thinks of all of these unique qualities, what comes to mind is the Tamuno magic!

    Professor Tamuno’s writing and life-style became the way to encode the spirit of humilitas, a careful use of oneself to teach practical ethics. I visited his house at Ibadan where he wore his simple top and shorts with many pockets, showing me his plants, his fruits, and his seeds. On one occasion in 2005, in the company of Professor Chris Ogbogbo, the amiable Head of the History Department and Professor Ademola Dasylva, both of the University of Ibadan, Professor Tamuno tried to recruit us into his way of thinking and lifestyle, warning us to be cautious, to exercise restraint, to cultivate wisdom. He invited me to dinner the next day, an appointment that I was unable to keep, thus denying myself of valuable fatherly lessons.

    As younger scholars, the moment we entered our car, we were united in our conversations, engaged in comparing Professor Tamuno to another professor we visited before him, who was full of arrogance and vain words; we chose instead to praise Professor Tamuno’s wisdom. He was modest in prosperity, honorable in status, and graceful in moderate opulence. The visitation, one of many, triggered a series of reflections in me: the Kantian formulation of linking truth-telling with humility; and the Jesusian formulation of death and agony as sacrifice and redemption.

    If the great Professor Tamuno learned from history, and he prospered by it, let us learn from him as well. In violating the tenets of his modesty and humility, I want to create a template for the Tamuno model of living: love Nigeria; read and cultivate skills; use talents; promote virtues; be meek; think of and appreciate others; make your ego small to realize your true humanity and place in the universe; and appreciate your smallness, but remain steadfast and true to your principles!

    Nietzsche, the philosopher, will quibble with my generosity, for he sees humility not as a virtue but as a weakness, a strategy of survival, deployed by the weak to minimize the damage done by the strong, the Übermensch. Professor Tekena Tamuno would be a dysfunctional element in the pool that Nietzsche studied made a study of.  To the contrary, Professor Tamuno recognized my own talent and was in praise of it, just as he recognized the talents of others. He did not deny others their honor, even when he was unjustly attacked. He did not build a cult of individualism and never asked anyone to worship him.

    Our star has relocated, not extinguished: you and I are like dust, insignificant, but hopeful: hopeful that what he wanted, a peaceful and united Nigeria, will surely, eventually be created.

    Professor Tamuno, sleep well, the great one, and permit me to sing a dirge:

    The honey eater

    Looks not at the edge of the axe

    The astute trader

    Bothers not with the din of the marketplace

    The egg lover

    Regards not the anus of the hen

    Thirsty throat befriends weeping palm tree

    Stretch out your calabashes

    I have poured libation

    Come join the spree

    Baba, rejoice, for you are already fit to receive grace:

    Poet, sing your song

    To the resonant din of the bell

    Ko ko, ko ko, ko ko, ko ko

    At its instance, the rhumba

    Là là, ko ko, là là, ko ko

    The earth must open for the earthworm

    Là là ko ko fè fè, là là ko ko fè fè

    The potter must get her clay

    And the painter his colors

    With a face and nose to the ground

    The writer surely must find his words

    To make flow the rivers of ink

    Là là, là là, là là, là là

    Là là, ko ko, là là ko

    Professor Tamuno, I offer a promise: we will keep history alive:

    If we stay alive, songs and drama

    will come from

    Mouths of truth that seek no rewards

    Enduring pain without any gain.

    Great one, we will serve others as a constant reminder of your humility and greatness:

    Judge us: this is all that you know

    Condemn us: the passion of your spirit

    We forgive: when we cross the passage of

    Time, asking questions:

    Were you with us in the grasslands?

    Who laughed with us in the savannah?

    Who cried in the forest?

    Did you hear the story before the stream?

    What did we say at the bank?

    Did you cross the river with us?

    Sir, be assured, we will descale our obsequiousness but enscale our memory of you:

    Flourish Greenfingers

    Like the cornstalk

    Rising in its season

    Flourish, Greenfingers

    The years of your triumph

    Call for celebration

    The labour of truth

    Is evergreen.

    Flourish, Greenfingers

    The one

    Who has earned

    His purple robe

    Swirl, Sway, Swirl Greenfingers

    Ignore the heads in the clouds

    The sure footed

    Must reap bountiful harvest

    Swirl, Sway, Swirl, Greenfingers

    With royal gait

    As you arrive to dine

    At His pavilioned regal tables.

    • Falola is Distinguished Teaching Professor at The University of Texas at Austin

  • Path to Nigeria’s economic survival

    Let’s ask ourselves the following salient questions – How can a modern economy be so reliant on a singular export commodity like crude oil, that accounts for 80% of budget revenue? How can you achieve job creation for teeming youths and alleviate poverty with such dismal electricity supply and wobbly infrastructure? How in the world do you hope to continuously provide enough affordable commodities for a huge consumerist society without local manufacturing base? How can you have the financial capacity to invest in and expand infrastructure if you spend over 75% of your budget on recurrent expenditures? This and many other common sense questions should keep President-elect Muhammadu Buhari and his team awake over the next four years.

    I personally prefer to take an unorthodox view to our problems and seek new solutions. Even with a near-comatose manufacturing sector and failing infrastructure, Nigeria has managed to log in 5 – 7% GDP growth rate over the last decade. No thanks to our direct effort, but via rebasing, the country now boasts of the largest economy on the continent; moving from the 39th to the 29th position amongst the largest economies in the world. Five years away from 2020, there’s still a fair chance that Nigeria may at least become a leading top-20 economy by the turn of this decade.

    I will like toborrow a famous phrase from President Ronald Reagan when he visited West Berlin at the heat of the cold war in the late 1980s, where he said – Mr Gorbachev  – “Tear down this wall”; to our President-elect I want to say – “tear down this oil veil”.

    To make serious progress I would call on President-elect Buhari on assumption of office to tear-down this disjointed and dysfunctional oil based economy, then rebuild it from the bottom-up. How you may ask? The feats and efforts that brought Nigeria this far from the 1960s to 1980s would hardly take it to the next level. It is quite characteristic that backward, third-world economies are typically mono-product, import-oriented, agrarian and undiversified. However that is not the case for emerging economies of the 21st century, such as the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russian, Indian, China and South Africa) where you have a well-diversified, export-oriented, robust domestic manufacturing base. A cursory look at Singapore, India, China, Malaysia and even South Africa can explain that better.

    The bedrock of Nigeria’s economy, the oil/gas sector is so opaque and overdue for radical revamping no question about that. But overhaul in what direction is another issue. To my mind beyond enacting the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) to dismantle the NNPC and delineate the regulatory and commercial functions of that behemoth in the industry, Nigeria should consider beginning to curtail crude oil exports over the next 2 – 4 years, down to 30 – 50% of production as a matter of national emergency and deliberate policy. If leaving the OPEC is what it takes so be it, after all no emerging market country belongs to OPEC. I say that for the following solid reasons that will require hard statistics to be buttressed further and substantiated;

    a) The value creation in dollar terms or incremental productivity from crude oil refining locally far outweighs the proceeds from crude oil exports at current prices. Consider the by-product derived from refining a barrel of crude oil even at current average price of $50 – $60 per barrel, which can be at least 3 – 5 times more. This same products can help unlock value in the local economy through providing lubrication for domestic manufacturing; diesel, aviation fuel, kerosene for local industries and polyethylene for petrochemical processing and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for domestic cooking and commercial use.

    b)         One of the greatest inhibiting factors in the growth of local electricity generation is shortage of gas supply. Yet Nigeria has huge gas reserves, and exports Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) through the existing Bonny LNG plant, while planning for Brass and Olokola LNG. How economically insensitive can that be? If you consider for a moment the impact on manufacturing and growth of cottage industries, the increase of electric power capacity from the current level of 4000 megawatts to say 10,000 – 20,000 megawatts in the next four years you would understand how that can tremendously spur productivity and drive double-digit economic growth.

    c) To rely on oil exports and proceeds from gas exports at the expense of domestic power supply and local crude refining is fool hardy to say the least for Nigeria and Buhari should consider reversing that trend.

    d) The multitude of challenges plaguing Nigeria today is a direct consequence of that third-world economic malaise. If the prognosis of Nigeria rising to join the ranks of the Next 11 (according to Goldman Sachs Investment Bank) or becoming a MINT – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – member country is to be achieved, the current environment is totally hostile and counter-productive for that.

    For the purposes of illustration, consider the following facts. A barrel of crude oil is an equivalent of about 159 litres, consisting of 11% Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG); 13% petrol/gasoline; 50% diesel and the remaining are kerosene, fuel oil, sulphur etc. Consequently based on this configuration, a barrel of crude oil refined locally will produce approximately 30 litres of petrol/gasoline, 90 litres of diesel and other sundry products. In monetary terms, 90 litres of diesel at a unit market price of N150 is about N13,500 or $67 at N200/1 USD, while 30 litres of fuel/gasoline at N110 per litre will give N3,300 or $16. That alone amounts to a total output of $84, not considering the income from other refined products. Now compare this to a current market price of crude at $60 per barrel that results to a loss of $24 per barrel. At a daily production of 2.3 Million barrels, Nigeria losses $55 Million daily or $19.8 Billion annually, assuming production is for 360 days at going price of $60 per barrel.

    Aggregate this financial loss with the mass closure and the low capacity utilization of existing local factories and intermittent shortage of refined products in the market, plus the subsidy sink-hole, you would understand the enormity of financial calamity being orchestrated by the overly dependence on this singular hydro-carbon sector in Nigeria.

    Now don’t ask me about the attitude of vested interests and myopic economic groups in Nigeria towards the proposed radical turn-around (that have carved their respective niches and would not live to see this drastic change happen). To them I say, “if you can’t beat us, join us”. Economic transformation and structural changes are usually fraught with casualties. In such circumstances, companies and entrepreneurs are forced to retool, realign, re-strategize or perish. The progressive match forward in any economy ought to benefit the majority, however, due to potential loss of grip and entrenched rent-seeking mentality, drastic changes hardly succeed, nor even allowed to take-off.

    As we have seen with the status quo in NNPC, PHCN and NITEL etc, thankfully, but gradually that choke-hold is loosening. President Obasanjo succeeded in dismantling/liberalizing the telecommunication sector; President Jonathan made strong strides in unbundling and disposing the electric power assets of NEPA (PHCN). The last dinosaur still standing and probably the strongest of all is NNPC and the oil/gas cartel. President Buhari must attack that challenge frontally to make it his best legacy and at last free the economy of Nigeria from a debilitating paralysis.

     

    Peterside, Ph.D, is Rivers State Commissioner for Finance