The Anambra 2021 election has come and gone with losers and winners. The ruling party in the state won the coveted price of governorship, while APC won some legislatures at both the state and national assembly courtesy of defections by the former APGA and PDP legislatures. In build up to the election, APC which had no representation in the Anambra State 30-member House of assembly gained eight members, two from PDP and six from APGA. APC further snatched a serving senator from PDP plus five serving members of House of Representatives. That is an impressive performance considering that they had none prior to the 2021 election. With this development, APC is now the major opposition party in the state. PDP that lost some of her legislatures to APC leads the losers’ camp at the election.

The bedrock of modern democracy is elections, and low voter turnout rates might suggest that elections are no more considered fundamental to political life. Democracies advance the principle of political equality through the idea of voting and that all individuals are equal, each having just one vote. However, low voter turnout frequently means that there is unequal participation.

Since the restoration of democracy in 1999, governorship elections in Anambra have never witnessed up to 50% voter turnout. Of the 1.84milion registered for the 2010 governorship election, only 302,000 voted, a miserly16% voter turnout. In 2013, a total of 1,770,127 were registered but only 465,891 voted, representing 24%. Less than a quarter of the registered voters participated in the 2017 election. Out of 2,064,134 residents registered as eligible voters for the election, only 457,511 voted, representing 21%.  This year 2021, the total registered voters for the Anambra governorship election is 2,525,471; but the total votes cast in the election is 249,631 which is mere 9.8% approximately 10%. The abysmal voter turnout in Anambra elections is replicated in all the states of South-East.

Statistic shows that North-West geopolitical zone has the highest number of registered voters, followed by the South-West; while South-East has the least number of registered voters. Number of registered voters indicates willingness to vote in election. So, the electorates in the South-east are not willing to vote, as they are pre-occupied with their commercial activities of buying/selling. Worst still, those who registered, display high level apathy and never turnout to vote. As we display voter apathy, the powers that be, especially at the centre, reward us with infrastructural deficit. Inadvertently, electorates are engineering political alienation of South-East. No wonder the sixteen years of PDP rule left all Federal roads in the South-East in very horrible state. When we scream, marginalisation, they pacify us with promise of building second Niger Bridge. In order to coax us into following them blindly, they perform the bridge building rituals.

In 2007, Obasanjo administration started the ritual, tagging it “Foundation laying ceremony.” When Yar’Adua came on board, he changed the nomenclature, calling his, “ground-breaking” without any key structural work. Jonathan maintained the same propaganda, promising in 2011, to build the bridge. By 2014, at the twilight of his administration, he repeated Yar’Adua’s brand of ritual “ground-breaking,” without anything to show for the bridge.

When Buhari came on board, he let the cat out of the bag, by telling us the truth. He told us that South-East gave him 5% votes. Though, the truth was bitter, but it sets us free. In 2018, Buhari administration started the building of the 2nd Niger Bridge, and is bent on completing it before leaving office in 2023. The same administration has mobilised contractors to rehabilitate the Federal roads in the South-East. Works are going on at the Federal roads in South-East including Enugu-Onitsha road, Enugu-PortHarcourt road, Onitsha-Owerri road, etc. One good turn deserves another, so the South-East politicians are rewarding Buhari with loyalty as they populate APC. The journey into APC was started by the fearless Senators Orji Uzor Kalu and Rochas Okorocha who contested and won elections on the platform of APC, making Abia and Imo politics very competitive. Today, the fortunes of APC is swelling in the South-East, as it has two seating governors, many serving senators, House of representative members and House of assembly members. Save for Enugu State where people are still following PDP blindly, politics in the rest four states of the South-East are now very competitive. At Enugu State, Ugochukwu Agballah led APC is working hard to change the political narrative, and wrestle power from PDP. The consequence of the political shake up in the South-East is that the area is gradually becoming the battleground states. Battleground states in this regard connote states where neither the APC candidate nor the PDP candidate can lay claim to total or landslide victory. Majority government is more orderly, certainly, but democracy requires a certain relish for the unpredictable. Being forced to negotiate with other political parties and the crossbench can force common sense amendments that blunt the sharp edges of hardline policies. It can force governments to pay attention to issues they might prefer to ignore.

Without democrats, there can be no democracy” – the words of Friedrich Ebert (1871-1925), Germany’s first democratically elected President, who experienced the turmoil of Germany’s Weimar Republic, also apply to elections: Without voters, or without a sufficient turnout, there can be no true elections that would reflect people’s preferences. Elections are nothing other than preferences aggregation. A low or lowest voter turnout would not be a true reflection of the people’s preferences, but only that of a minority. And one may ponder: should a minority be given the mandate to govern? The answer is clear but this can inadvertently happen if a majority displays nonchalant attitude. But a high voter turnout will not only make the result of an election more credible; it will also deter criminals from hijacking or sabotaging the electoral process, guarantee more impartiality and fairness, and increase the pressure on elected officials to live up to campaign promises.

• Jekwu writes from Plot 18 Whitesand Avenue, Lekki

Tel: 08184553078, Email: Jekwuonovo@Gmail.com

Attend enough conferences in the Washington, D.C. area, and you’re bound to discover a common theme percolating through a wide segment of the U.S. foreign policy community: the United States, the most powerful country on the planet, has a unique responsibility to lead the world into a more peaceful era.

Yet as Christopher Preble of the Atlantic Council argued in a recent report, the U.S. is hardly the center of attention as so many in the Beltway assume it to be. In many instances, the U.S. can be marginal or downright irrelevant. The U.S. may be a superpower with the world’s largest economy, a resilient workforce, strong demographics and a military second to none, but it still has limits. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s invocation of the U.S. as the “indispensable nation” is in reality a tale we tell ourselves.

The U.S., to put it bluntly, is not the all-powerful player at the head of the table with infinite resources and an unending reservoir of leverage. Not every crisis has a “Made in the USA” solution, and Washington can often make situations worse by thrusting itself into the picture.

The ongoing disputes in Belarus, Nicaragua and Ethiopia are illustrative of this baseline observation.

In Belarus, a former Soviet republic, dissidents who dare to criticize President Alexander Lukashenko’s government expose themselves to arbitrary detention, show trials, beatings and exile. Those swept up by Belarusian security forces are thrown into overcrowded prisons with dim lighting, where they are subjected to torture and forced confessions. Since last year’s fraudulent presidential elections, in which Lukashenko claimed a sixth term, more than 30,000 people have been arrested. Others have fled for fear of long-term imprisonment. In case this wasn’t disturbing enough, Minsk is also encouraging migrants from Iraq and Syria to fly to Belarus and cross into Poland in a cynical attempt to retaliate for sanctions imposed by the European Union.

For the U.S., Lukashenko’s conduct is the epitome of Wild West gangsterism, in which a government rebels against even the façade of civilized behavior. The Biden administration has responded to Belarus as it often does with other states the U.S. doesn’t like: by slapping sanctions on them. Multiple rounds have been applied, most of them going after the personal assets of Belarusian officials. Yet in Belarus, there is only so much U.S. sanctions can do to compel a change in behavior. Valued at $454 million last year, the U.S.-Belarusian trading relationship is small potatoes, which means Washington doesn’t have many cards to play against Minsk to begin with. Lukashenko is also fortunate to have Russia’s Vladimir Putin next door, who despite somewhat icy personal relations with the Belarusian autocrat continues to view the former farm boss as the least bad alternative for Russia’s interests. Look no further Moscow’s hand-outs to the Belarusian government, including loans and cheap natural gas.

Read Also: Joe Biden’s plummeting presidency

Ethiopia is another example. Traditionally, the second-largest country in Africa has had a businesslike relationship with the U.S., partnering with Washington on counterterrorism operations in Somalia and serving as a relatively stable anchor in an oftentimes chaotic Horn of Africa region. The year-long civil conflict in Ethiopia, however, is taking a toll on the broader U.S.-Ethiopian relationship. The Biden administration continues to denounce Addis Ababa for its prosecution of the war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, with the Ethiopian army’s blockade of desperately needed food supplies taking special prominence for U.S. policymakers. A U.N. investigation reported that crimes against humanity have been conducted by all sides in the war.

Yet again, Washington is scurrying for a response. The White House published an executive order in September tasking the U.S. Treasury Department to sanction individuals responsible for hindering peace efforts and engaging in serious human rights violations. On Nov. 2, the Biden administration suspended Ethiopia from a U.S. trade program that gives participating states duty-free access to the U.S. market.

Further sanctions are likely if the warring parties refuse to seriously engage in negotiations. But while more economic restrictions would be the path of least resistance, they aren’t cost-free. At a time when hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians are living in famine-like conditions, U.S. officials need to ask themselves whether shutting certain sectors of the Ethiopian economy will simply solidify the country’s humanitarian crisis.

While Nicaragua isn’t in a civil war like Ethiopia, it poses a similar conundrum for U.S. policymakers. Daniel Ortega, the longest-serving leader in Latin America, won a fourth term in deeply flawed presidential elections after arresting his political opponents, banning entire political parties and charging anyone voicing disapproval of his government as an enemy of the state. Building off the asset freezes and visa bans already implemented earlier this year, additional sanctions designations are in the works.

In the case of Nicaragua, the U.S. does in fact have economic leverage. Nicaragua relies on the U.S. for over 61 percent of its trade. But having leverage doesn’t necessarily mean the U.S. should use it, especially when doing will incentivize more Nicaraguans to make the arduous trek to the U.S. southern border (U.S. Border Patrol encounters with Nicaraguan migrants are up by an astounding 965 percent compared to the 2015-2019 average). If the U.S. claims to care about the Nicaraguan people, 30 percent of whom already live in poverty, it’s hard to see how restricting the Nicaraguan economy helps them in any way.

In an ideal world, the U.S. would be able to ride into the fray as the white knight and solve all of these problems. But there are no fairytales in international relations—and it’s about time our leaders come to grips with this inescapable reality.

• This article was first published in www.newsweek.com

Nowadays, political manifestos no longer stand convincing proof for the average Nigerian electorate. No matter how embellished the policy document is, an aspirant, whether fit or misfit, often commissions professionals in the art to craft the design. But it doesn’t usually sail through, as the electorate are wiser, more enlightened and informed to be hoodwinked. This scenario reinforces the belief in the continued clamour for independent candidacy in order to change the narratives for electing qualified, capable and competent candidates into political offices, in sharp contrast to the previously held tenets of saddling political parties with the responsibilities.

It is curious that after the near completion of two terms, eight (8) years in office, of the then Governor Otunba Gbenga Daniel (OGD) prior to the 2011 gubernatorial election in Ogun State, he had incurred more political foes than he could imagine, owing to the succession crisis in the polity. There was an intra-party leadership crisis which almost swept him off and eventually caused a massive crack in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), culminating in the formation of the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN) all in a bid to field his godson, Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (aka GNI) as his successor. On another flank, his arch-rival, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, on the platform of the Action Congress (AC), wasn’t giving him a breathing space, as he continued to face oppositions on all fronts.

OGD was called all sorts of unprinted names, just to discredit and crucify him. That is politics for you in the name of our own home-grown democracy. What were his offences? In fairness, OGD brought his rich wealth of experience to bear on governance as an engineer. He thought outside the box and governed the state as a family unit. He introduced various welfarist programmes and lofty projects to ameliorate the living conditions of the people. Chiefly, he introduced the Ogun State Road Maintenance Agency (OGROMA) which was scrapped when his successor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, came on board in 2011, purely for no plausible explanations, except political vendetta.

It is the scrapped Ogun State Road Maintenance Agency (OGROMA) which the current administration of Prince Dapo Abiodun has resuscitated, rebranded, and christened Ogun State Public Works Agency (OGPWA) to rehabilitate and fix the failed portions of the roads across the state. Also, OGD touched the rural communities and breathed life into them, just to give them a sense of belonging. His political appointments cut across every section, regardless of ethnic and religious affiliations. A man who was a toast of the people with an appellation, “OGIDI OMO”, turned around the fortunes of the state but subsequently became an enemy who could no longer walk freely the streets of the state capital, Abeokuta, for fear of being stoned.

“A king that reigns and his domain thrives and develops, his name will not be forgotten; ditto the one that rules but brings hardship and sorrow on his people, his name will not be erased from history books.”

By sheer providence or design, Amosun warmed himself into the hearts of all and sundry, with his electoral promises to do better than his predecessor (Daniel) in office and also to unleash the full God-given potentials to the maximum benefits of the citizenry. He took up the gauntlet and addressed the issue of insecurity that was the order of the day. He ordered for the procurement of Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC) vehicles, AK-47 rifles, crash helmets and ammunition from overseas in response to the orgy of bank robbery attacks in the state.

Before anyone could sense it, the real game – political vendetta – had started. Amosun rubbished and erased the last vestiges of Daniel’s legacies and replaced them with his own agenda. He suspended in some parts and also discarded other noble projects and programmes initiated by Daniel. A good example was the multi-billion naira turbine gas plant projects which the administration of Daniel imported into the country to light up the state capital, as parts of the moves to give a befitting status to Abeokuta. The purported equipment is now moribund where it is stored at the Governor’s Office, Okemosan, Abeokuta.

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Sounding real and touring every nook and cranny of the state, one would have had the impression that his major preoccupation was genuine in the reconstruction and expansion of existing roads that would enhance and facilitate accelerated development and growth. On the contrary, ancient family homes and shrines which happened to fall close to the roads were not spared, and were made to pave way for the new face-lifts. Although the action of the government was not met with stiff opposition, only those affected in the demolition of their structures could live to tell the pangs they were made to go through. While a few of those rendered homeless could survive it, at the mercy of good Samaritans, others were sent to their early graves when compensations which ought to follow weren’t forthcoming.

In rural areas, the administration opened up new road projects. In taking cognizance of the investment in education which Ogun state is noted for, Amosun justified the premium placed on the sector to promote the legacy of the forefathers of the state for their pioneering excellent works, but the concept behind the establishment of Model Colleges in remote and bushy locations, prone to kidnapping, ritual attacks and other vices, was a misplacement of priority on the part of the administration.

The common saying, “health is wealth”, found no place in the heart of the helmsman, because the administration was missing in action. The only government-owned health teaching institution, Olabisi Onabanjo University Teaching Hospital (OOUTH), Shagamu, was untouched throughout the eight-year tenure, but only remained a shadow of its old self, as it turned out to be a mere “consulting clinic”. Conditions of service and motivating remunerations for resident doctors which ought to make them stay on job weren’t in place and what became of them was a mass exodus of the personnel on a “brain-drain syndrome” to Europe and the United States of America.

Lest we should forget, the construction of a 250-bed State Specialist Hospital situated along IBB Boulevard, Okemosan, Abeokuta, was hurriedly commissioned without completion by President Muhammadu Buhari on the invitation of Amosun few days to vacating office.  This was one of the white elephant projects embarked upon by Amosun. Surprisingly, he claimed the project had been fully funded only for Prince Dapo Abiodun, upon his assumption of office, to inherit a huge debt profile on the project in question. Instead of wasting taxpayers’ money on the project, however, the current administration now shops for investors to develop the hospital into a world-class health facility capable of providing quality healthcare services to the people.

In the days of yore, agriculture which used to be the mainstay economy of the state took a backseat, without a corresponding impetus to promote both existing and potential farmers. Government’s intervention, especially in boosting rice production, tagged “MITROS RICE”, soon afterwards suffered a setback within a space of two years of its birth when the exercise was fraught with irregularities and it became a mirage. Little wonder the news media was awashed with reports of incidents of sand bagged into bags of rice at the silos plant located at Obantoko, Abeokuta. Such a dubious tendency simply lends credence to the prevalence of shenanigans during Amosun’s administration in Ogun State.

What could have been responsible for the underdevelopment of the state during the eight-year tenure was a mystery shrouded in secrecy but which beg for an answer from the immediate past Governor.

However, as a promise-keeping administration, Prince Dapo Abiodun came onboard at a critical time in May 2019 when the morale of the workforce was at its lowest ebb and he rescued governance from its near collapse.

Obviously, overwhelmed by the deplorable condition of the roads and other projects bear economic benefits, but unperturbed nonetheless, the Governor at inception of office, pledged his administration’s best efforts at completing all the abandoned projects inherited from his predecessor, despite the financial strain.

In comparison, the administration is not sectional in its approach to qualitative and balanced governance and in tandem with the current realities on ground, and it has demonstrated fairness in the sharing of equitable distribution of resources, across the three senatorial districts that make up the state.

It is crystal clear that, an era of half-truths, lies and deceit has given way for a more dedicated and committed administration that sees the entire state as an indivisible family unit for even development and growth, with due respect to the interest for the principles of equity, justice and fairplay.

• Ogbonnikan wrote from Abeokuta, Ogun state capital .

He told President Muhammadu Buhari with air of well borne competence and cocksure audacity that by December 31, or before the date, all the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camps located in Maiduguri shall remain closed.

This is no doubt, one off the good tidings President Buhari must be expecting from Borno, the epicenter of the insurgency that has kept the nation’s eyes wide-opened and sleepless nights for over a decade now.

The messenger of the message to the number one citizen of the nation in Aso villa, Abuja, is the number one citizen of Borno state himself who is the Chief Executive of the State.

Addressing the State House Correspondents in Abuja recently on the outcome of his meeting with President Buhari the Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umar Zulum told the journalists that he had come to brief the President among others on the rehabilitation and resettlement of the IDPs in Borno.

According to Governor Zulum “I came to brief the President on efforts made by Borno state government in ensuring the return of internally displaced persons to their homes. So far so good. Borno state government has started well and arrangements have been concluded to ensure the closure of all internally displaced persons in camps that are inside Maiduguri on or before December 31.

Professor Zulum further stated that arrangements have been concluded for the safe return of persons displaced now living in the neighboring countries of Cameroon and Niger Republics. This is being done with the collaboration of the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs. He similarly announced that the Borno state government is making combined efforts with the ministry to continue with the repatriation of Nigerians refugees in Minawo, Cameroon back home.

Not done, Governor Zulum told the correspondents, “Furthermore, on November 27, Borno state government will ensure the resettlement of IDPs that are living in Diffa province of Niger to Mallamfatori, a Local government area in Borno state where we don’t have human population because of the insurgency”.

Professor Zulum commended the efforts and support of the security agencies in the state in the government execution of its rehabilitation, reconstruction and resettlement programme. He expressed gratitude to the Chief of Naval Staff, Rear Admiral Awwal Crambo in ensuring the return of Naval Base to Baga recently.

Zulum’s message to President Buhari indeed, is good news especially, to the concerned that they would soon smell their long forcefully evicted ancestral homes by Boko Haram insurgents. It’s good news to the good people of Borno who have been longing to see the end to the trials and travails that have been the unsolicited harvest of the state in particular, for the past decade. For almost eleven years now, Borno has been the theater of the absurd, a symbolic projection of Shakespeare’s architecture of ruins, a landscape of shattered homesteads, severed limbs, tattered lives, ravaged farmlands and looted brams. Indeed, for the past ten years and above Borno state with its cherished philosophy of “Home of Peace and Hospitality” assumed the image of the battlefield, “a world in which there are two categories of people, enemy or friend”. For over a decade now, Borno has experienced in an unimaginable magnitude deaths, blood and sorrow.

Of the over two million registered IDPs in the Northeast region, Borno state accounts for about 80 percent with over 50,000 orphans and 70,000 widows. The number of IDPs fluctuates from time to time depending on the prevailing circumstances at a given period. However, the numbers of the IDPs in camps in the state exclude thousands of IDPs outside the state. Worse still, of the $9 billion World Bank validated assessment figures in 2015 with regards to destruction of public buildings, assets and infrastructure in the region, Borno state takes the lion’s share of $6.7 billons worth of the damages. While official figures put the number of deaths at about 100,000 the unofficial, put this at about 300,000 including the insurgents and their families.

Until the coming into power of the Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, Borno state government under the Governorship of Kashim Shettima spent monthly N600 million monthly for the upkeep of the IDPs. However, on coming into office, Buhari’s administration took over the burden of food supply while the state government provides, condiments, utensils, water and others thereby reducing the monthly expenditure of the state government to about N200 million.

Read Also: Borno to close IDP camps December 31 – Zulum

Taking over from Kashim Shettima’s administration, the state government under Professor Babagana Umar Zulum not only maintained and sustained efforts put in place by the predecessor administration, but energized the same. Zulum’s administration came in disposition of government running against time. The irrigation engineer ran from pillar to post, within and out, of the country to see, observe, note and act in happenings in all the IDPs camps harboring Borno indigenes or refugees. Zulum was married more to the affairs of the IDPs to the comfort zone of the Government House. To have the true and deep feelings of the IDPs, Governor Zulum on most occasions passed the nights mostly in some of the locations of the IDPs outside the state capital. While he interacted with refugees or IDPs of Borno in and outside the state, he ensured that their needs were meet at least to the minimum required standard. While anomalies in the camps were and are promptly addressed, security of the camps remains the uppermost priority the government.

Under the empowerment programme of the IDPs, the government has introduced for both male and female skills acquisition programmes including making of detergents, tailoring, sewing and others. At the end of the training the affected IDPs especially those returning home are given “start up kits” and return package consisting of money and non-food items to enable them independently take off.

Neither is the education of the IDPs, especially the young ones, compromised. To this effect, various stakeholders in education are brought together to formulate educational programme, for all categories of the affected and classes manned by qualified teachers and instructors are held at various camps. These include classes in formal education, adult and Tsangaya classes. With regards to the orphans, mega schools have been established to take care of them.

The establishment of the Ministry of Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement by the state government and the tremendous achievements of the ministry in various parts of the state with regard to its mandate have gone a long way in reinforcing the peoples’ confidence and trust in the administration’s determination to take home safely the IDPs to their various communities hitherto forced to abandon. Already thousands of the IDPs have returned, relocated to their permanent houses due to among others the unrelenting efforts of the Ministry.

Active engagement of youth and community in peace building programmes that facilitate interactive among individuals of disparate backgrounds, teaching of value of tolerance and promote non-violent conflict resolution have been effective in reducing prejudice and mitigating the appeal of radical ideologies. Borno State Government embraced and demonstrates this especially, in its post-insurgency activities.

Without fear of contradiction, Zulum has made a great mark in his government resolve to take the IDPs back to their ancestral homes. In his words, “we will never leave our people to their fate nor shall we allow our already traumatized people to sleep with empty stomach. Leadership is a burden. We must carry it until our people will be able to get sustainable means of livelihood”. He has lived up to expectation in this pledge.

However, with the latest declaration that all the IDPs camps in Maiduguri, which are accommodated thousands and the lion’s share of the IDPs in the state would be closed before or by December 31, Professor has made a powerful proclamation. It is a signal to the gradual ending of the insurgency.

However, the great question is will the beneficiaries of the insurgency allow peace to reign and let go all their clandestine moves against peace? For example, Governor Kashim made some efforts to relocate some of the IDPs back home, but was frustrated by several attacks of the insurgents at both the camps and ancestral homes. Besides, there have been allegation even by the army of some politicians and elite in the Northeast and Borno in particular of attempts to frustrate the war on insurgency for their self-ambition. Neither would some Non-Governmental Organizations earlier accused of sabotaging the efforts of the government on its rehabilitation and resettlement programme in the guise of helping the IDPs divert funds so raised to their private purse be trusted. Governor Kashim Shettima on several occasions indicted this group of dubious NGOs or fraud and impersonation. Only of recent Governor Zulum suspended one of the NGOs in the state on ground on allegation of security breach. What of the activities with regards to allegation of some unpatriotic member of the security agencies who aid the insurgents? Will the landlords who are making fortune or windfall from the NGOs on their houses and property wish away the insurgency? Will the protagonists of Boko Haram in both public and private sectors allow gradual and final movement of the IDPs to their ancestral homes and let the nation the peace?

Governor Zulum’s decision to close all the IDPs camps in Maiduguri for final homeward journey of the IDPs to the ancestral or original homes is commendable and challenging. However, in this herculean task, he must with the trusted stakeholders keep their eyes wide-opened and eyes to the ground, because the enemies to his course of action are abound and around. A great optimism demanding caution.

• Victor Izekor is a journalist and public affairs analyst and write at victorizekor@gmail.com

Over the years, talks on naira devaluation have been a recurring topic as the nation’s currency is frequently locked in a struggle for value against the US Dollar and other foreign currencies.

At a foreign-press briefing in March this year, the Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed announced that Buhari-led government had abandoned the official exchange rate and would instead use the market-based Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX) rate. Although this would constitute the third de-facto devaluation in a year and Nigeria will not go so far as to let the currency float. This was made clear by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele on 23 March in remarks somewhat contradicting Ahmed’s statement.

The minister of finance’s announcement implies that the government will use the NAFEX rate when converting oil and gas proceeds into naira, which – coupled with the 50% oil price rally over the past six months – would provide a major boost to government revenues. In fact, this practice, now official, has been going on for some time already.  However, in another press conference, the governor of Nigeria apex bank was eager to emphasise his organisation’s supremacy in all exchange rate-related matters. In particular, Emefiele implicitly acknowledged the devaluation and pointed out that the exchange rate would continue to be a managed float, rather than being determined by the market.

Only recently, the number two citizen of Nigeria, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo stirred the waters and reignited long-standing debates on the CBN’s currency management policies, knocking the apex bank for ineffectively managing the current exchange rate crises bedeviling the nation.

While many understood the statements of the vice president to mean that he was suggesting devaluation of naira – again – to “reflect market realities,” the Vice president’s Office has since swiftly released a statement to debunk this assertion. But the deed has already been done, leaving analysts with no choice but to examine – again, the gauche topic of devaluation of the naira in the Nigerian context and within the ambit of the nation’s peculiarities.

Devaluation is a monetary policy tool of countries that have a fixed exchange rate or semi-fixed exchange rate. It is often confused with depreciation, and is in contrast to revaluation. Devaluating a currency is decided by the government issuing the currency, and unlike depreciation, is not the result of non-governmental activities. One reason a country may devaluate its currency is to combat trade imbalances.

Read Also: Economy: Zainab Ahmed’s scorecard one year after

For a net exporting country, devaluation provides better export competitiveness, increases revenues from exports and puts more money into the hands of citizens. The People’s Republic of China is a very good example of a country that has benefited from this policy, which is the largest trade nation in terms of the sum of its exports and imports. However, for a net importing country like Nigeria, devaluation won’t solve the exchange crisis, although it will help increase revenue but the nation will be grappling between the two evils of rising inflation and low purchasing power, currently bedeviled the country. Therefore, taking the devaluation route may be tantamount to the nation shooting itself in the foot.

While devaluating a currency can seem like an attractive option, it can have negative consequences. By making imports more expensive, it protects domestic industries that may then become less efficient without the pressure of competition. Higher exports relative to imports can also increase aggregate demand, which can lead to inflation.

Also, there will be an upsurge in how much in naira is needed to purchase FX for Nigerians needs such as school fees, medical bills, BTA, PTA, amongst others. There will be an attrition of purchasing power as more cash would be needed to purchase basic goods and services without a necessary wage increase; a situation that can easily create room for agitations by workers, high rate of crimes and anarchy. However, there will be repricing of FX-indexed loans, which could dovetail into an increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) and create instability in the financial system.

Apart from a hike in the cost of importing consumer items and raw materials for manufacturing, there will be also an increase in unemployment and underemployment rate, stemming from business shutdowns, pay cuts and layoffs to reduce business overheads. And government will need to earmark a large chunk of its budget for debts servicing.

Therefore, it is a reality that devaluation seems more doom than good. It can throw the whole nation into panic with everyone wondering how the naira devaluation will impact the economy. These are just the harsh realities of the present economic situation Nigeria find herself.

However, there’s always a way out for every challenge if given proper thought and creativity. It is believed that the current administration and its economic team will further consult widely in finding lasting solution to the dwindling Nigeria economy before they hand over power to another government in 2023.

• Babasola Adegbuyi, a financial and economy analyst, wrote via: babasolaadegbuyi@yahoo.com