The Nation Newspaper

Category: Commentaries

  • Nigerians and lure of Ponzi schemes

    Nigerians and lure of Ponzi schemes

    • By Ademola ‘Bablow’ Babalola

    Sir: In Nigeria, many people are undoubtedly susceptible to decoy. They’re like fish whose appetites for the foods on the hooks can hardly be suppressed. They’re easily disarmed by baits. And one of the baits that smoothly attract and entice them, and completely bring them on their knees is ‘awoof’ (freebie). ‘Awoof’ does not only disarm, it also injures or sends people to early graves.

    The culture of having it free is so rampant among Nigerians hardly any aspect of their lives is free from the plague. Even in social gatherings, many a Nigerian, irrespective of their status in society, often loose guard and throw caution to the wind where decency is expected of them.

    Many presume that the desperation and eagerness of some Nigerians to acquire wealth on a silver platter could be the reason they’re usually easily tricked by con-artists. This weakness in Nigerians could be what the promoters of some Ponzi schemes who had operated successfully in Nigeria understudied and leveraged to dispossess the victims of digital/online investment of their possessions.

    The recent fraud instituted by a digital investment platform, Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) – which allegedly duped many Nigerians (the rich, the poor, the educated the illiterate, clergymen, musicians, police officers and others) of about N1.3 trillion, arguably the largest in the history of online scam in Nigeria – isn’t a surprise to me because CBEX wasn’t the first investment platform disguised as Messiah that came to rescue people from poverty but in the end crashed.

    CBEX, like other Ponzi schemes that had come before it, came and posed as an authentic online investment platform and people fell for it like they fell for others without proper investigation to confirm its genuineness. The platform which was being operated by a group of foreign nationals in collaboration with their Nigerian partners promised potential investors heaven and earth, 100 per cent returns on investments in 30 days, a pledge that was shrouded with surreptitious obligations.

    “Once bitten, twice shy”, they say. One would think that Nigerians had learnt bitter lessons from the ordeals they suffered for engaging in such unreliable investments in the past, but reverse was the case. The victims discarded the saying that “success is a process”. They craved overnight success, and they fell.

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    Would Nigerians ever learn after the huge loss to CBEX? This is a question no one can accurately answer. Unless adequate monitoring devices from appropriate government agencies are employed to keep an eye on the activities of digital investments in Nigeria, the boast to end Ponzi schemes in the country might be a daydream.

    To other Nigerians who have not fallen into the trap of the scammers and also to those who had one way or the other fallen, the solution is to understand exactly the aim of Ponzi scheme. It’s an investment that uses new investors’ money to pay earlier investors. The scheme’s stratagem is to rob Peter to pay Paul. In this case, very few people gain while myriad of people are bound to lose.

    Having understood that, you need to suppress your desires to acquire wealth at all cost. To aspire to be rich within a twinkle of an eye is dangerous, and this mind-set always make people to be vulnerable to tricksters’ baits. Any offer that’s too good to be true cannot be a good offer. There can never be a 100 per cent return on investment in 30 days anywhere in the planet, even beyond the globe. Though taking risks is part to the steps to take to the top, taking unreasonable risk often spells doom.

    •Ademola ‘Bablow’ Babalola,

    babalolaademola39@gmail.com

  • Regular census a desideratum

    Regular census a desideratum

    Regular population census is a sine-qua-non for a country’s optimal development and it cannot be over-emphasized. All strata and indices of a country’s development are embedded in its population census and this to a great extent makes its regularity a desideratum. 

    Nigeria’s last population census in 2006 put the country’s population at 140, 431, 790. Nineteen years after that exercise, the conduct of a new population has been in abeyance and the country’s real population remains a matter of conjecture.

    Different humongous population figures have been ascribed to the country, all in attempts to satisfy the whimsical needs of individuals. Nations population and its demographics are dynamic and because of their dynamism, they increase or decrease like weather.

    Such vagaries in human nature and development ipso facto must have prompted the UN Population Commission to fix a 10-year interval between one population census and another. A decade of population growth and development in the entire gamut of a country should conjure a realistic population census on which a country’s template of development can be based.

    Nineteen years of absence of a population census is a gross violation of all the nuances and parameters on which good and accurate population census stand and serve. The nation’s development is not static but population census as its regulatory factor has been static since 2006 when the last census took place.

    Population is a capital intensive project, especially in terms of funding, socio-economic indices and stable polity. The relative peace the country enjoyed between 1999 and 2006 was partly responsible for the successful conduct of the 2006 census.

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    Recent inauguration of a census committee by President Bola Tinubu is therefore a right step in the right direction.

    It aptly shows the great concern which the president has for holding a census already overdue by nine years. With just two years to the end of his first term, population experts are of the opinion that the president will require unusual political will to conduct a population census.

    It will also require the president closing his eyes against all forms of political gangsterism and manoeuvring to concentrate on satisfying one of the very important essences of his government. The president will do well not to allow his mind to be troubled about 2027 as his achievements will surely speak on his behalf to silence political do-gooders and malcontents.

    Population census has been one of the torchy issues of the country’s historical development and despite nine years lapse, the government must guide against anything likely to hinder the conduct of a free, fair, accurate and acceptable population.

    •Sunday Olagunju,Ibadan, Oyo State.

  • The resurgence of Boko Haram

    The resurgence of Boko Haram

    Sir: The alarming resurgence of Boko Haram poses a significant threat to Nigeria’s stability and security. The recent spike in attacks, particularly in the Northeast, has not only resulted in tragic loss of life but has also aggravated the socio-economic challenges faced by the region.

    A recent report by Beacon Security outlines that in the first quarter of this year alone, Boko Haram carried out over 397 attacks in Borno State, leading to 514 deaths and 357 abductions. These statistics are not just mere numbers; they symbolize the real and ongoing suffering of the county’s families and communities. As the situation keeps taking different dimensions, the government need to act decisively to curb this threat.

    Boko Haram’s current phase of operations comes with a shift to kidnap-for-ransom, extortion through taxation and the use of digital tools for coordination and spreading propaganda. Historically, the group relied on conventional terror methods, including bombings and armed assaults. The present tactics of this group suggest a more sophisticated and financially motivated agenda. Reports indicate that Boko Haram has generated substantial financial resources—amounting to up to N1 billion since 2024—through these coerced payments. This approach not only augments the group’s operational capacity but also places an unbearable strain on already impoverished communities. Families that should be concentrating on rebuilding their lives are instead forced to divert their limited resources to meet these extortion demands.

    These extortion tactics extend beyond kidnappings, which have now intensified against local economic activities, coercing traders, fishermen, farmers, and herders to pay exorbitant fees just to carry out their daily tasks. This “taxation” system is perhaps one of the most insidious aspects of Boko Haram’s new strategy. This allows the group to maintain control over territory and instils a climate of fear among the populace, further destabilizing the region. Those who pay are issued “tax receipts” that they must present at a moment’s notice, or else face severe repercussions. This is not just a criminal outfit; it is an organized regime that thrives on intimidation and extortion, effectively creating a parallel system that undermines legitimate governance.

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    The federal government cannot afford to overlook this alarming trend. It must take urgent and comprehensive action to address the challenges posed by the Boko Haram revival. A multi-faceted approach is essential for curtailing the group’s operations and restoring peace to affected communities. The government must ramp up military operations against Boko Haram through deploying more troops and advanced equipment to areas where the group is particularly active, such as the Lake Chad region, southern Borno, and northern Yobe.

    The government must also work towards cutting off Boko Haram’s financial lifelines. This is a critical effort to disrupt the ransom economy and taxation systems that the group exploits. The government needs to provide innovative solutions to counteract the group’s illicit funding mechanisms.

    Addressing the growing digital sophistication of Boko Haram is an urgent necessity. The group has increasingly turned to technology to enhance its operations, utilizing high-speed internet, drones, and social media to disseminate propaganda. The government must collaborate with tech companies and international partners to mitigate Boko Haram’s access to these digital tools. By disrupting their online capabilities, we not only weaken their propaganda efforts but also inhibit their recruitment strategies, which are often aimed at vulnerable youth seeking purpose and identity.

    Building trust between the government and local populations is critical. The government needs to make its citizens believe every step it takes to address their challenges. Many communities feel abandoned by the state and this disenchantment often fuels support for insurgent groups. Grievances can be addressed through dialogue, and inclusive governance can foster a more resilient society capable of standing against Boko Haram’s influence.

    The international community, too, has a role to play in supporting Nigeria’s fight against Boko Haram. Terrorism is a global issue, and the implications of Boko Haram’s resurgence extend beyond Nigeria’s borders. Collaborative efforts and regional integration can significantly enhance Nigeria’s capabilities in countering this threat.  With millions of people are affected, and addressing the pressing needs of internally displaced persons must be a priority for both the government and international partners.

    The scars left by Boko Haram’s years of violence are still fresh in our collective memory. We have won the war. It’s time to regain the peace and make our communities safer for the citizens.

    •Isah Aliyu Chiroma,<aliyuisahchiroma29@gmail.com>

  • Another look at Nigeria-Saudi partnership on illicit drugs

    Another look at Nigeria-Saudi partnership on illicit drugs

    Sir: As a long-time advocate for stringent drug laws and a tireless campaigner against trafficking, I welcome the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between Nigeria’s National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) and Saudi Arabia’s General Directorate of Narcotics Control (GDNC). This agreement, forged in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, represents a significant stride in the global war against narcotics by fostering deeper cooperation between our two nations.

    The objectives are clear: intelligence sharing, joint operations, and mutual capacity building to combat narcotic and psychotropic substances and their precursors. In an era where criminal networks grow ever more sophisticated, no single nation can tackle the scourge of drug trafficking in isolation. This MoU could well be the pivot needed to disrupt the entrenched global drug trade.

    This partnership follows a pattern of recent international collaborations by Nigeria, including talks with The Gambia and other African states. Such moves underline our nation’s growing commitment to combatting trafficking as a global issue, not merely a domestic one.

    Yet, while these diplomatic gestures are promising, their success must be judged by the impact on ordinary citizens. Drug trafficking does not merely ensnare its participants—it devastates families, shatters communities, and corrodes the moral fabric of society. Addiction, violence, and poverty often follow in its wake. As such, enforcement alone is not enough.

    True success lies in pairing enforcement with prevention. This means robust public education campaigns, community engagement, and addressing the root causes that push people into drug abuse and trafficking—unemployment, lack of education, and social disenfranchisement. We must stop treating the symptoms and instead heal the disease at its source.

    Too often, our discussions around trafficking fixate on statistics—seizures, arrests, convictions. But what happens after the busts? Where is the support for the affected communities? Are we rehabilitating those addicted or merely punishing them?

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    Both Nigeria and Saudi Arabia must ensure that the partnership is not mired in bureaucracy. Periodic public updates and measurable outcomes must be part of the deal. Without accountability, even the most promising initiatives risk becoming hollow gestures.

    Furthermore, the success of this MoU cannot rest solely on governmental agencies. For lasting change, all segments of society must be involved—religious and educational institutions, community leaders, and families. These are the grassroots influencers who shape behaviours and values. Their involvement is indispensable.

    Preventive strategies must target the youth—those most vulnerable to the lure of drug culture. We must offer education, opportunity, and hope. Simultaneously, rehabilitation must be prioritised, not side-lined. Our society must extend a hand to the fallen, not just cast judgement upon them.

    As the Nigeria-Saudi MoU is operationalised, we must ask: what next? What are the tangible outcomes we should expect? Arrests are not the only metric of success. True progress is reflected in lives redeemed, families restored, and communities renewed.

    This agreement marks a hopeful step forward. But real success lies not in signed papers or press conferences, but in action. If we are to win this war, we must adopt an integrated approach—one that unites enforcement with prevention, rehabilitation, and reintegration. Only through such a holistic strategy can we hope to dismantle the networks of destruction that drug trafficking has built—and replace them with strong, thriving communities.

    Let this not be just another ceremonial handshake. Let it be the turning point in our national fight against drugs—a war we cannot afford to lose.

    •Ini Janetty, Makurdi, Benue State.

  • Rescue or ransom payment?

    Rescue or ransom payment?

    There is still a lack of clarity about how retired Brig. Gen. Maharazu Tsiga, former Director-General of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), regained his freedom after more than 50 days in captivity. He was kidnapped from his home in Katsina State on February 5. He narrated his hellish experience in captivity, saying he endured “beatings.”

     On April 3, the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, reunited him with his family at a ceremony at the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), Abuja. Eighteen others were reunited with their families at the event. They included Amb. Gideon Yohanna, former Deputy Chief of Mission to Pretoria, South Africa, who was kidnapped in January, in Kaduna State.

     Curiously, Ribadu said nothing about the kidnappers.  Where were they? What happened to them?  These were inevitable questions that demanded answers.

     But there were no answers. He said the handover event involved “very powerful and important personalities,” adding, “We are grateful to those who made their rescue possible.” He also said  previous handovers were “a result of the work of our armed forces and other security services.”   

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    Interestingly, a “Note of Appreciation,” dated April 4, 2025, signed by Brig. Gen.  Ismaila Abdullahi (retd), surfaced online. It gave an insight into how Tsiga possibly regained his freedom.  Abdullahi said after the abduction, Tsiga’s friends and associates had created a “WhatsApp platform that we named simply “TSIGA.”  He stated that the kidnappers had demanded N400 million  as ransom. “We decided to solicit  donations on our TSIGA PLATFORM. The response was overwhelming. On this platform, we had over 300 members,” he said, adding, “I feel fulfilled as our collective efforts have finally yielded a very positive outcome.”

    This suggested that Tsiga was released after his kidnappers had collected ransom. It appeared to contradict the official narrative that he was rescued by security agents.

    However, the Director of Defence Information, Brig. Gen.Tukur Gusau, issued a counter-statement describing the claims by Abdullahi as “misleading” and  “disparaging.” He called the release of  his “Note of Appreciation”  “an act of mischief calculated at undermining the dedicated efforts of the military to eradicate terrorists/bandits and other criminal elements from the North West region.”  He added that it was “only fair to recognise the significant sacrifices made by these troops who have worked day and night, often at great risk to their own lives in their search for the senior officer.” The Defence Headquarters explained that “military operations comprising both kinetic and non-kinetic strategies facilitated the rescue of General Tsiga,” and described it as “a successful search and rescue effort.”

    Notably, the Defence Headquarters also said nothing about the kidnappers, which raised the same questions about  where they were and what happened to them. No answers.

    It was puzzling that Ribadu  claimed the kidnap victims had been rescued, which suggested that they were taken from their abductors. A rescue suggests physical action on the part of the rescuers. If the abductors released the captives, possibly after the payment of ransom, that can’t be strictly described as a rescue.

    Rescue or ransom payment? This question comes up routinely regarding kidnap cases in the country. The Tsiga kidnapping incident and its resolution triggered the question yet again.

  • Artificial Intelligence and the future of Nigeria’s public service

    Artificial Intelligence and the future of Nigeria’s public service

    There is no doubt that we are now in the age of the artificial intelligence, or precisely the Digital Age. Indeed, in scholarship, scholars are already signaling the arrival of a posthuman world within which machines and digital technologies would have taken over most of the intelligences that are usually associated with humans. Whether there will be such a world when machines would challenge human intelligence is still a moot point. What is obvious now is the rate at which artificial intelligences are deployed in the performance of several cognitive functions that are traditionally associated with human capacities. From Siri and Alexa to the driverless bicycle and car, and from social media algorithms to ChatGPT, AI is gradually getting launched in several areas of human endeavor—education, manufacturing, architecture, entertainment, governance, healthcare, sports, and many more.

    It is definitely inevitable that public administration has to confront and engage with the utility of AI in achieving performance and efficiency. The pioneering innovation in both AI and public administration has already been done by Herbert Simon, 1978 Nobel Laureate, especially in his research on organizational knowledge, decision making and human performance. For example, in his theory of administrative behavior, Simon argues that since decision makers and managers are not perfect beings, public administrators cannot be expected to make perfect decisions and choices. On the contrary, this is because they do not have the capacity to think and know everything all at once at any given point. The limitations to their thinking and knowledge imply that they work within this “bounded rationality.” Thus, public managers make administrative choices that are “satisficing”—they are the smart choice not because they are the best ones, but because they are the most satisfactory given the available limitations.

    Within this Herbert Simon’s understanding of administrative behavior and decision-making, we can then begin to imagine how the limitation can be reduced through the deployment of AI. In other words, how does AI intervene in administrative and managerial operations in terms of improving operational efficiency, facilitating informed and evidence-based decision-making, efficient delivery of personalise public services, resource use optimisation and therefore organisational productivity, while promoting efficient, secure, and citizen-centred and modernised systems and work processes?

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    Public administration 2.0 is the forerunner especially in the application and deployment of technologies in fast tracking administrative and managerial processes and operations. Through the use of data analytics, and especially user-generated content and interactivity in Web 2.0, public administration and the public sector is better enhanced in terms of citizen-engagement in the administration of government; decision-making is facilitated through data analytics, open data that makes for transparency; and administrative processes that are streamlined for efficiency through the use technologies. With the addition and application of AI, the administration of the public sector, and most significantly of the public service, is provided with a powerful tool for transforming the public sector into a mechanism for effectively and efficiently delivering democratic governance. Let me outline a few of such possibilities.

    The first possibility is in the area of managing administrative routines and processes, by articulating heuristic models that reduce costs and man-hour, especially in terms of lowering labour and operational costs that have a significant bearing on performance and national productivity. For example, through AI-based virtual assistants, administrators can adequately manage their calendars, book appointments and send reminders. AI document management system streamlines document scanning, organisation, storage and retrieval processes. Second, AI provides the possibility of stimulating several scenario modelling tools that public sector administrators can utilize in simulating and evaluating various courses of actions and potential outcomes through the deployment of predictive analytics that assist in forecasting future trends, risks and opportunities. This implies therefore that administrators and managers are able to use AI tools to enhance strategic intelligence for problem-solving decision-making that anticipates challenges, gets early warning signals, and proactively devises strategies to mitigate risks or take advantage of emerging trends.

    Third, AI facilitates a near-seamless workplace efficiency, communication and team relations. In using AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants, any public administrator and manager is able to significantly inject administrative sanity into the workplace to resolve complex cooperative matters, instigating effective communication, and evaluate inefficient patterns, processes and practices for critical review and improvement. AI also assists in facilitating seamless interaction among team members through the possibility of remote work dynamics, messaging, video conferencing and file sharing as enabled by such applications as Zoom, Slack and Microsoft Teams, etc.

    The fourth fundamental possibility generated by AI in the workplace is the enhancement of performance management. There is the possibility of enhancing data-rooted policy intelligence and decisions through using AI to generate reports and dashboards information around key performance indicators, trends and anomalies. The automation of workflow management goes a long way in harnessing AI-powered project management tools that activate task assignment, resource allocation, the planning and tracking of projects for updates, and the identification of systemic and human-induced impediments and bottlenecks. AI can also enable regulatory governance through the automating of compliance processes and standards monitored in real-time to ensure adherence to regulatory requirements and organisational policies. This proactive approach can significantly reduce the risk of compliance violations, enhance organisational resilience and trustworthiness.

    The proactive initiatives of the Tinubu administration—through the Ministry of Communication, Innovation and Digital Economy—are critical and commendable in trying to fast track Nigeria’s functional participation in the global AI ecosystem. We have the development of the national AI strategy and roadmap, from the 2023 Data Protection Act to the signing of the Bletchley Declaration on AI, that situate Nigeria within the capability readiness to deploy the best in global and national AI developments and initiatives that will energize governance and public institutions. What is needed more is the political will and the institutional reform frameworks to push the bounds of the capacity of AI to impact public administration and the public sector in Nigeria. One most immediate point of engagement for AI tools is Nigeria’s anti-corruption campaign. One need not wonder too much why this is so. The civil service all around the world specifically and the public sector at large is still plagued with systemic and structural bottlenecks that incentivise corrupt practices. It is not different in Nigeria. Bureaucratic corruption undermines and undercut budgetary and policy investments in the welfare of Nigerians through the drastic reduction in the quality of infrastructural development. Applying AI tools to the anti-corruption campaign will not only effectively enable the detection of corruption through the sophisticated analysis of financial transactions—suspected financial inflows and anomalies—in government business and the economy. These tools will also enhance government’s capacity to achieve optimal tax collection through automatic detection of tax evaders and tax audit optimisation.

    AI tools and technologies can equally be deployed in achieving security objectives. This will derive from their capacity to monitor crime patterns, predict security threats and enable crime detection using algorithmic protocols and the intelligence these protocols are able to generate to improve rapid responses during emergencies. Artificial intelligence and digital technologies also have significant implications for healthcare delivery through enhanced disease diagnosis and prognosis, treatment planning and public health analysis. The same goes for the administration of service delivery in the education sector by improving personalized learning experiences and improving learning outcomes. In agriculture, AI can be deployed to analyze farming trends and patterns, optimize crop yields and improve food production.

    When Elon Musk took over the running of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US, he was aware not only that he had a herculean task ahead of him to rationalize and optimize a large federal bureaucracy. He was also aware of the capacity of AI to assist his policy intentions and objectives. When he deployed the AI-powered chatbot, GSAi, and demanded the upgrade of the technological software of entire government workforce, it was a smart move that would cut in half the possible bottlenecks that such a downgrading might experience. This is to enable federal employees efficiently create talking points, summarize text, and write code. This then becomes the basis for expanding the AI tools not only, for example, for achieving efficiency in contract management and procurement, but also for enabling a hitch-free downsizing objective. In other words, the GSAi enhance the capacity of the government to identify and deal with waste and redundancies. Elon Musk insists that “a trillion dollars can be saved just by addressing waste, fraud and abuse.”

    It then becomes very clear what the lessons are that the Nigerian government can learn from this imperative of deploying AI to the urgent necessity of tackling cost of governance and waste management. And again, it requires the most pre-emptive and proactive measures that the political will of the Tinubu administration can muster to bring the public sector up to speed in terms of the benefits of AI. This requires the government taking fundamental steps in institutional and governance reforms. The public service, for example, needs to add AI to the list of its urgent twenty-first century competences, skills and literacies, especially competences in specialized data science, machine learning, AI engineering skills, and data privacy, governance and data security management. This is to the extent that Nigeria needs a critical mass of public officers who understand the technical and administrative significance and operational imperatives of AI in public administration and in the public service. Failure to do this means that despite government’s willingness to sign on to global and regional treaties on AI, not strengthening this willingness by pragmatic institutional reform steps will leave Nigeria behind in the global AI transformation. There is, for example, the need for government to put strong and attractive talent management strategies and incentives in place that will first counteract the perception of government as a terrible employer of labour, retain the talents that are already struggling in government employment, and then draw talents especially from the private sector.

    As usual with almost all organizational and institutional dynamics, AI and the change management strategies required to bring it on board will meet with significant resistance by both the public servants and the citizens. It is the responsibility of government and its reform experts to articulate a change management that enable a speedy and friendly AI adoption. For instance, the government needs massive investment that ensures data availability and the need to build data culture nation-wide. The dynamic will also require the building of strong and intelligent support systems especially in the public service to enhance staff learning and for problem-solving to address critical challenges before they escalate and make a mess of the entire national programme.

    Finally, the downside of digital technologies and AI usage is their vulnerability to cybersecurity threats, data breaches and hacking that compromise sensitive official and national information and data. The government therefore needs an adequate security systems and framework—and new offices and positions—that will ensure the appropriate management and protection of AI tools and government data. New roles required will be that of Chief AI Officer, AI Security Office, AI Regulator, and so on, who will be charged with the supervision and monitoring of AI deployment across the MDAs, as well as the implementation of the necessary legislation and guidelines. 

    AI is the future of government and public administration. It is one means by which the Tinubu administration can instigate a significant jumpstarting of the Renewed Hope Agenda by dragging AI into its implementation and into the institutional reform blueprint to make it successful.    

  • Trump’s ‘instinctual’ diplomacy

    Trump’s ‘instinctual’ diplomacy

    By Adam McConnel

    Guildenstern: “There! How was that?”

    Rosencrantz: “Clever!”

    G: “Natural?”

    R: “Instinctive.”[1]

    Now we know definitively — because he told us so himself — what drives US President Donald Trump’s decision-making: instinct [2]. That Trump had no long-term plan or strategy behind his decisions had long been clear to most observers, but some commentators, both pro- and anti-Trump, had tried to find other explanations for his inconsistent, contradictory, even illogical decisions. Hopefully, Trump’s own admission will help everyone digest the situation’s reality and move on to the more essential issue, which is dealing with the chaos that Trump’s blustery, haphazard waffling creates.

    Trumpian diplomacy’s leitmotifs

    One of Trump’s few consistent diplomatic themes is his love-hate focus on China, which he also displayed during his first term. Most of the time he threatens Beijing, but then he throws in positive comments from time-to-time [3]. The contrast between Trump’s aggressively anti-China stance and his relatively friendly relations with Moscow led to claims that Trump is attempting a “reverse Nixon,” i.e. a tactical shift, the opposite of Former US President Richard Nixon’s approach to China in the early 1970s. Nixon aimed to draw China away from the USSR and towards the US during the Cold War.

    However, Nixon, and his National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, had a known long-term strategy and developed tactics aimed at bringing about that strategy’s success. Trump has not revealed any similar strategy or vision, and his statements and actions do not match what one would expect from a statesperson who had worked out such a strategy. Similarly, some observers have suggested that Trump utilizes the “mad man” approach, another technique attributed to Nixon. But Nixon used that tactic only for a handful of specific situations; Trump’s general behavior is erratic and was so during his first term.

    In the end, the problem with divining whether a statesperson uses unpredictability as a tactic is that it verges on conspiracy theory territory: any such inconsistent or irrational decision-making could be rationalized, ex post facto, as purposeful by claiming the “mad man” tactic.

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    Trump is a known quantity

    Ultimately, Occam’s Razor [4] is the best tool with which to approach President Trump’s policy preferences because we have had plenty of time to gauge his behavior. In addition to more than four years as President, Trump had public prominence as a New York socialite and television personality for the 30 years before he took office in 2017. If Trump had devised a doctrine to guide his approach to international relations, we would know what it is. For example, Trump has obsessed over tariffs since the 1980s [5], so it is not a surprise that tariffs have been a constant feature of his Presidential terms.

    But no foreign policy doctrine that would imply, even demand, a consistency in behavior and decision-making is evident from President Trump’s preferences. Instead, Trump clearly acts on impulses that are generally self-serving [6]. Subsequently, foreign affairs become, for Trump, a calculation that is far more about his personal gain than any other contributing factor. US interests impinge on his decisions only in terms of Trump’s assumed voting base; anti-China and pro-Israel stances have dominated his foreign policy decisions because he determined that those subjects will win him the public support that he desires. Little-to-no ethical or ideological foundations exist for his decisions in regard to international relations.

    Trump’s favorite word: tariffs

    Again, tariffs provide the instructive example. Usually, tariffs are a technique employed by industrializing economies to protect domestic industries broadly while they develop competitiveness, or by industrialized economies to protect certain narrow sectors or products, often for political reasons.

    Trump, however, brandishes tariffs as a threat or a bargaining position, so any foreign country and any imported goods are potentially his target. He proceeds according to his own calculation of whether he can gain fast concessions from his target, and what the immediate results are. Trump has already threatened or even applied massive tariffs several times, only to lessen or retract them hours later after concessions from the opposite side.

    The most recent episode, culminating last week in his sudden reversal of the global tariffs he had enacted only days earlier, was precipitated by Wall Street’s panicked sell-off. Trump may have overplayed his tariffs this time because bond markets continue to indicate long-term turbulence [8]. Stronger actors also retaliated with their own tariffs on US goods, as China did and as the EU was preparing to do.

    Why?

    The broader question is why Trump feels the need to wield tariffs like a scythe, slashing through the global economy like Alexander taking a sword to the Gordian Knot. As mentioned above, Trump has promoted tariffs since the 1980s as a policy tool, and ranted about how other countries were “ripping off” the US.

    The reality is that the US benefitted massively from the global free trade regimes established in the 80 years since WWII. Most Americans enjoy living standards unprecedented in human history, and part of the reason is the liberal global order, which enabled much of the globe’s wealth to flow into the US American officials understood that rising life standards abroad would create a more prosperous, more peaceful, and safer world, which was clearly to America’s advantage [9]. In other words, the US did not construct the global finance and trade system out of purely altruistic motives, or out of naivete.

    Trump apparently never grasped that other countries prospering from free trade was actually a sign that the global system worked as envisioned, and that the US was a direct beneficiary even if it was not immediately obvious.

    His mind seems dominated by zero-sum calculations: if another country profits, then, by definition, it means that the US loses and is treated unfairly in that particular bilateral relationship. He cannot see the forest because of an excessive focus on a certain tree. Thus, tariffs became his answer.

    Trump’s meandering speech patterns and frustrated attempts to understand that larger machinery around him remind one of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern. They are the doomed courtiers of Shakespeare’s Hamlet, whom Tom Stoppard turned into tragicomic symbols of the modern condition in his brilliant black comedy, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead. Like Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, Trump has only instinct and others’ words to help him comprehend the ongoing drama that he finds himself swept up in. So his policy decisions are instinctual, but we all hope that he will listen more to others’ instructive words during the coming four years.

    • This article was originally published in www.aa.com.tr

  • And APC Sokoto “bombs” PDP state chapter

    And APC Sokoto “bombs” PDP state chapter

    By Emmanuel Ado

    “Sometimes it is entirely appropriate to kill a fly with a sledgehammer!” Maj. Holdredge

    When Isa Sadiq Acida, the State Chairman of the All Progressives Congress(APC), decided  to kill a fly, in this case the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Sokoto State Chapter, with a sledge hammer,  it was deliberate and was targeted at not just the PDP, but at other flies – opposition elements – that might be tempted to thread the dangerous path of the PDP that has made making wild allegations a way of life.

    Acida, in his world press conference entitled “Governor Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto: A Worthy Ambassador of the APC”, achieved a three – in- one strategic objective. First, he proudly showcased the achievements of its worthy ambassador, Governor Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto. He also succeeded in putting the opposition on notice that the APC would no longer tolerate unwarranted and unsubstantiated accusations against the administration of Governor Sokoto. And lastly, Acida flaunted the readiness of the APC in Sokoto state for the 2027 general elections.

    Going by the swift reaction of the APC to his latest campaign of misinformation, and outright lies against Governor Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto, his administration and family, the  State Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Sokoto State Chapter, Alhaji Bello Aliyu Goronyo would definitely be full of regrets because he definitely got more than he had bargained for: a strong rebuttal through showcasing the achievements of Governor Ahmad Aliyu Sokoto who, in less than two years, has achieved what the PDP administration under former Governor Aminu Tambuwal couldn’t achieve in eight years.

    Since Governor Ahmad Sokoto defeated Saidu Umar, the PDP governorship candidate in the 2023 general elections, the party had declared a full scale  war without boundaries on him. And the politically smart governor, seeing through their devilish plot to distract him and for him to end up  in their ignoble boat, refused all entreaties by his supporters to return fire for fire. But, with the 2027 elections already in top gear, the APC has rightly decided to counter the PDP strategy of continuous campaign of misinformation with facts.

    Thankfully, unlike PDP’s Aminu Tambuwal, the APC ambassador- Governor Sokoto- has numerous projects in every sector to showcase. In the words of Isa Sadiq Acida: “We advise our political opponents to borrow a leaf from us and tell  the people how they spent our Commonwealth while they were in office, otherwise they should stop rushing to press to ridicule themselves with unsubstantiated claims that cannot stand a litmus test”.

    What are the facts? Contrary to the warped narrative of the opposition PDP,  Governor Aliyu Sokoto has transparently managed the resources of Sokoto State, the reason he has been able pay salaries,pensions, complete over 250 impactful projects and counting, and liquidate the loans obtained by Tambuwal in less than two years!

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    It’s a fact that Governor Sokoto has completed all projects that Aminu Tambuwal inherited or started but later abandoned. They include the housing estates,the Independent Power project,the 40 million per day water project, and several roads,including the Rijiya flyover bridge, the only major project that Tambuwal initiated in his eight wasted years as governor and which in his typical nature he also abandoned.

    The national newspapers have a duty to institute an award for the likes of Aminu Tambuwal whose notoriety for abandoned projects is legendary.

    In the Housing Sector, the stark difference between Governor  Sokoto and his predecessor is crystal clear. While the Aminu Tambuwal sold off all Government houses, proceeds of which he couldn’t account for, Governor Sokoto has built a total of 1136 houses, made up of 500 at Gidan Salanke, 500 at Wajake, Wamakko Local Government Areas, and purchased 136 housing units  from the Federal Housing Authority.

    It is a fact that the Ahmad Aliyu administration has constructed a network of roads in Sahara Area,  at Gawon-Nama area, Ramen-Kura around the Abattoir, at Koko Road area, around Saint Paul Primary School, and the J Allen Area. While another Network of roads is being constructed at New Arkilla, Mabera as well as the Tudunwada Area. Others are the Zamfara, Zungeru and Shinkafi roads near the Government House. On the whole, about 48 roads are currently under construction.

    If only the PDP isn’t shameless, it wouldn’t have stirred the hornets nest, because there is so much difference between Governor Sokoto and their own failed governor, Aminu Tambuwal. Aminu Tambuwal was no doubt a colossal failure. And it ought to have known that the difference between Governor Sokoto and the former governor goes beyond Tambuwal seeing the governorship position only as a stepping stone to the presidency, which he attempted unsuccessfully in 2019 and 2023. It is widely believed that Tambuwal had no resources to run the state because of his presidential ambition. In aviation circles, Tambuwal was a considered a “gold customer” due to his penchant for hiring private jets in search for delegates.

    So, if the governor or the local government chairmen are allegedly squandering resources, how have they been able to fund the  myriads of projects they have so far executed without ever borrowing a penny from the banks?

    It’s a fact that long  before May 29, 2023, residents of Sokoto metropolis had no access to pipe borne water because the Sokoto State Water Corporation, heavily indebted to Kaduna Power Company, was disconnected and had no electricity to pump water. Mountains of refuse defaced the landscape, oozing out putrefying odour.  Salaries were paid well into the next month, which demoralized the public servants. Not even the pensioners that gave their youth to the state were spared the agony of governance failure. It’s a fact that Governor Sokoto resolved all these  problems within his first 100 days.

    It’s a fact that by 2023, Aminu Tambuwal  left a liability of over N14 billion in pensions and questionable bank loans, with many assets of the state at risk of being confiscated by the banks. Again, Governor Sokoto changed the narrative within a few months in office. He has not only drastically reduced all liabilities, especially pensions, and made provisions for new retirees, again, without borrowing from the banks.

    The question for the PDP is, how did the government fund the construction of these roads if it had, indeed, squandered the resources of the state? Some of the roads that have been constructed in the 23 local government areas include the Gudun – Tandamare – Rijiya road (6.3 km), Romo – Kaya – Barga road (4.25 km), both in Tambuwal LGA; Dandin Mahe – Mabera road in Shagari LGA (2.9 km), the Ehra – Ruggar Mallam road (6 km) and Ginga Junction – Horo Birni road (3.1 km) both in Shagari  LGA; Kilgori – Kwaidaza road (2.2 km) and Magacci Main Road – Ruggar Kiju (3.1 km) and  Bingaje – Dono road in Yabo LGA (2.6 km) all in Yabo Local Government; Yar Jakuru – Kafar Sanyi road in Bodinga LGA, Wababe Junction – Fajaldu – Illela – Gusau Main Road in Dange Shuni LGA (3.15 km), Shuni Main Road – Gidan Danga – Makere – Dabagi – Tudun Salaru – Girgiri – Sanda Kuwana – Kulalu – Milgoma road, Wamakko Main Road – Wajeke road (1.3 km),Giniga – Yarkanta – Gidan Kawuri – Yarlabe road in Wamakko local Government; Western Bypass Main Road – Makabarta – Kurfi road (2.3 km) in Kware local Government; Telande – Hamma Ali Town (6.2 km) in Kware local, More Main Road – Jumu’at Mosque – Buddau Town in Kware LGA (2.35 km), Gadar Maruda – Galadanchi – Gidan Gero Town in Kware LGA (3.3 km), Lambar Gwaddodi – Gwaddodi Town in Rabah LGA (1.5 km),Lambar Kundus – Kundus Town in Rabah LGA (1.95 km),Lambar Gidan Buwai – Gidan Buwai Town in Rabah LGA (1.8 km),Tangaza – Ruggar Ruwa Town in Tangaza LGA (1.5 km), Tangaza – Zabarmawar Yahaya Town in Tangaza LGA (3.6 km),Gidan Maidebe – Kabawa town in Binji LGA (2.6 km),Binji – Inname road in Binji LGA (5.9 km)and the Dingyadi Main Road – Rumbuki town in Bod.

    A government that’s squandering resources won’t also be constructing the following roads:- The Tangaza- Balle road, the Illela- Gada Road, the Romon Sarki-Romon Liman Road, the Margai-Kebbe segment of Tambuwal-Kebbe Road, the Wurno-Huchi road and the road from Silame Police Station to Silame Bridge, and the Sokoto State segment of the Sokoto -Gummi Road, which is a federal highway.

    Another area that Governor Sokoto has written his name in gold is in the security sector. It must be noted that though security is exclusively that of the federal government,this has not stopped the governor from strengthening the security agencies towards tackling the  security challenges affecting some local government areas, particularly in the Eastern Senatorial District.

    To date, the governor has procured and distributed over 140 patrol vehicles to security agencies to boost their mobility and response capabilities. He has also  established  the Community Guards Corps, and equipped them with essential operational tools and logistics to complement the efforts of conventional security agencies. The 2,600 Guards Corps members have been equipped with 30 units of Hilux Vehicles 2022 model, with full insurance cover and 800 Motorcycles  to ease mobility of the Community Guards Corps personnel.

    The state Government also built, equipped and furnished operational offices for the Community Guards Corps in all the 13 local governments seriously affected by insecurity in the State. The Community Guards are fully armed for the execution of their assigned duties. Without doubt, these efforts have yielded significant results, with security personnel recording major successes in tackling all sorts of criminal activities.

    The achievements of the governor in education,agriculture and health are too numerous to mention. In education the governor continues to make huge investment. In the last two years he has surpassed the UNESCO recommendations.  In the 2025 budget, education got the lion’s share of the N526.88 billion allocation, a clear statement of Governor Sokoto’s commitment beyond intentions because he fully understands the importance of education as the bedrock of development. Schools have been renovated and new classes constructed which has led to a significant increase in enrollment of pupils and drastic reduction in the number of out-of-school children. His scholarship scheme has also enabled students to pursue higher education, both within and outside the country.

    Governor Aliyu Sokoto’s agricultural policy thrust is the massive production of food which would improve the living standard of the people and supply raw materials for the agro-allied industries. The governor has provided farmers with fertilizers, improved seedlings, and modern farming equipment. If Governor Ahmad Sokoto succeeds in his agricultural development initiative, not only will Sokoto State farmers earn better income, but they will ultimately save  Nigeria huge foreign exchange spent importing food.

    The problem with the opposition PDP relics is that they have yet to recover from  the political punches clinically delivered by Governor Sokoto, culminating in their total defeat. In their flip-flop and confused effort to stage a comeback in 2027, they have chosen the shameful path of demonizing an administration that is hugely popular. So if the PDP is not accusing the government of concentrating development in Sokoto metropolis, it would be accusing it of squandering resources. The allegations just don’t add up and the APC deserves commendation for refuting the allegations with facts.

    Though the PDP allegations are frivolous, they have continued to shoot blank,  and beyond generating headlines the PDP hasn’t landed a punch where it matters- with the people- the attacks if left unchallenged, the possibility of their dirt sticking cannot be dismissed, hence the need for the APC to frontally and continuously refute these lies from the pit of hell.

  • NBA’s obtainment tangle

    NBA’s obtainment tangle

    The ink had hardly dried on the sheets proclaiming emergency rule in Rivers State than the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) started hoofing it was unconstitutional! 

    No one, back then, could have guessed that was more for a Fubara obtainment, than for NBA’s ballyhooed rule of law!  But now, folks know better!

    Whether the NBA claim is correct or not, on the disputed cash, is now sub-judice.  But however the case goes, not all the legalese in NBA’s cocky arsenal could wash this obtainment scandal off its body, just as not all of the waters in the Atlantic could clean the deranged Lady Macbeth’s bloody hands of regicide.  It’s clearly not the NBA’s finest hour!

    Pushing its “rule of law” gallery play, the NBA had, full of legalistic flourish, announced the shifting of its conference from Port Harcourt, Rivers, to Enugu, Enugu State.  It claimed it couldn’t, in all good conscience, hold its parley in an outpost under the yoke of an undemocratic sole administrator!

    Wait a minute, that’s cant! — Rtd. Vice Admiral Ibok-ete Ibas, the Rivers administrator, roared back.  If you want to move your conference, that’s fine.  But return “our” N300 million!  You can’t bad-mouth a state, yet take its money!

    From that spot, our “rule of law” NBA started speaking in tongues!  First, it wasn’t tied to any hosting right.  Then, it was free and unconditional gift — as if there is ever a free lunch even in Freetown!  In any case, Ibas should produce any signed document committing NBA to holding its conference in Port Harcourt.  We’re keeping the cash! All gas!  All cant!  All legalese!  Yet, no respite.

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    Let the NBA do the honourable thing: return the cash — and stop this disgraceful quibbling over a night it can’t spin into a day, no matter how hard it tries.

    And while at that: it must give us full disclosure too.  With Enugu now its new bride, did it do a fresh obtainment from the Enugu government?  Or it was “rule of law” that propelled its reason?  We have a right to full disclosure!

    But before anyone starts pointing fingers and playing the saint, just remember that cynical Nigerian quip: we’re all rogues, but whoever is caught out becomes “barawo”!

    This parasitizing on the government and turning round to roast that same government is a Nigerian elite specialty.  Very early in this same 4th Republic, the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) created its own racket, making themselves self-imposed judges over state governments’ project performance, with its leaders savouring the resulting sushi, after a scandalous tour of some states!

    So, as it is, there’s an NBA in the Nigerian elite DNA — the NBA in all of us? The Yoruba call it “ajeniseni” — in coarsest and most cynical pidgin: “chop and clean mouth”!

    Let the NBA do what’s right — and thanks to the “undemocratic” Ibas: he summoned the courage to expose the holy hypocrisy of our “democratic” NBA! 

    No country thrives on self-imposed lies!

  • NNPCL’s bold strides in community development

    NNPCL’s bold strides in community development

    • By Adewale Martins

    In an era where sustainable development and social impact are becoming an increasing priority, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has emerged as a formidable force in aligning national energy goals with social progress. Since the inception of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, NNPC Ltd has ramped up its community development agenda, proving that corporate success and social responsibility can go hand in hand.

    A key example of this commitment was showcased recently in Lagos, where NNPC Ltd, in collaboration with First Exploration and Petroleum Development Company Limited (FIRST E&P), presented N287 million in grants to 12 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) across Nigeria. The initiative, known as Impact FIRST, is a flagship programme of the NNPC/FIRST E&P Joint Venture (JV), designed to support grassroots efforts in addressing critical challenges in healthcare, education, economic empowerment, and environmental sustainability.

    This landmark event not only signals the growing significance of social investment in Nigeria’s energy sector but also reflects the broader vision of the Tinubu administration, one that seeks to foster inclusive growth and shared prosperity.

     In alignment with the strategic vision of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, NNPC Ltd has transitioned more actively into a commercial enterprise in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), while still keeping its social contract with Nigerians firmly intact.

    One of the key beneficiaries of this new strategic approach is the NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS), the investment arm that ensures upstream partnerships like the one with FIRST E&P deliver not just economic value, but also tangible social dividends. At the recent grant presentation, Mr. Loveday Minanengiyeofor, representing NUIMS’ Chief Upstream Investment Officer, Mr. Seyi Omotowa, reinforced this vision.

    “Through the Impact FIRST Grant, we are establishing partnerships with organisations that are making significant contributions to their communities. Our collaboration with FIRST E&P allows us to support projects aimed at improving lives and generating both economic and social benefits,” Minanengiyeofor stated.

    The 2025 Impact FIRST Grant is a continuation of NNPC Ltd’s growing legacy of responsible investment. The 12 NGOs selected for this year’s grant represent a vibrant cross-section of initiatives tackling some of Nigeria’s most pressing issues—from mental health and disability care to education and environmental restoration.

    Among the beneficiaries are The Asido Foundation, focused on mental health advocacy; The IREDE Foundation, known for providing prosthetic limbs to child amputees; and the Sickle Cell Foundation Nigeria (SCFN), which offers life-saving care for individuals living with sickle cell disease. Others, like FREEE Environmental Sustainability Initiative, are spearheading community-led recycling and climate action campaigns.

    These grants, ranging from school renovations and caregiver training to cataract surgeries and rehabilitation support—are not merely handouts, but strategic investments into human capital and grassroots innovation. They reflect a deep understanding that building strong communities is foundational to national stability and progress.

    At the heart of the Impact FIRST initiative is a simple but powerful idea: partnerships drive transformation. This sentiment was echoed by Mr. Emmanuel Etomi, Executive Director of Corporate Services at FIRST E&P, during his address at the event.

    “As an organisation, we have seen firsthand how meaningful change happens—not in isolation, but through collaboration,” Etomi said. “We recognise that NGOs play a vital role in addressing complex social challenges, particularly in communities that are often underserved.”

    By empowering and resourcing these organisations, the NNPC/FIRST E&P JV is not only filling gaps left by public sector limitations but also creating a replicable model of corporate-social synergy. Under President Tinubu, this kind of multilateral engagement is increasingly being viewed as essential to achieving national development goals.

    President Tinubu’s administration has set ambitious targets around poverty reduction, education reform, and job creation—all of which are indirectly supported by programmes like Impact FIRST. For example, grants directed towards education-focused NGOs such as Street2School and FATE Foundation will enhance access to quality education and equip youth with entrepreneurial skills.

    Similarly, health-focused NGOs such as Health Emergency Initiative (HEI) and Health and Development Support Programme (HANDS) are tackling healthcare bottlenecks that often strain local systems. These organisations provide critical services such as emergency medical aid and maternal health interventions, helping to reduce mortality rates and strengthen health outcomes in vulnerable communities.

    Such results align directly with the Tinubu-led federal government’s renewed focus on primary healthcare delivery and inclusive education as tools for long-term societal transformation.

     Traditionally known as Nigeria’s oil giant, NNPC Ltd is steadily redefining its brand as a developmental partner. From investments in critical infrastructure to its growing social portfolio, the company is demonstrating that energy wealth can—and must—fuel more than just economic statistics.

    The Impact FIRST initiative is just one of several platforms through which NNPC Ltd, in partnership with other operators, is leveraging its reach to create social good. Others include its funding of national scholarship schemes, its participation in flood relief efforts, and infrastructure rehabilitation in host communities.

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    This evolution under President Tinubu’s watch has been enabled by reforms that encourage greater transparency, efficiency, and commercial independence—enabling NNPC Ltd to not only grow its profits but also reinvest them meaningfully into the society.

    The success of the Impact FIRST Grant is a microcosm of what can be achieved when corporate vision, public leadership, and civil society work hand-in-hand. As the Tinubu administration continues to navigate Nigeria through economic reforms and institutional restructuring, initiatives like these offer a blueprint for sustainable and inclusive growth.

    By supporting these 12 NGOs, the NNPC/FIRST E&P JV is not only changing lives today but laying the foundation for generational impact. Whether it’s a child walking again with a prosthetic limb or a youth lifted from poverty through education, the ripple effects of these grants will be felt for years to come.

    As Nigeria pushes forward under President Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda, the role of institutions like NNPC Ltd in delivering real, measurable, and compassionate development cannot be overstated. If the Impact FIRST initiative is any indication, the future of corporate social investment in Nigeria looks not just promising—but transformational.

    • Adewale Martins writes from Ikeja, Lagos State