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Jimmy Carter’s African legacy: peacemaker, negotiator and defender of rights

By Nancy Mitchell

When historians and pundits praise Jimmy Carter’s achievements as the US president and extol his exemplary post-presidential years, they mention the recognition of China, the Panama Canal Treaties and the Camp David Accords. Almost no one mentions what Carter, who has died, achieved in Africa during his presidency. This is a serious oversight.

When I interviewed President Carter in 2002, he told me: “I spent more effort and worry on Rhodesia than I did on the Middle East”.

The archival record supports the former president’s claim. Reams of documents detail Carter’s sustained and deep focus during his presidency on ending white rule in Rhodesia, and helping to bring about the independence of Zimbabwe.

There were several reasons for Carter’s focus on southern Africa. First, realpolitik. Southern Africa was the hottest theatre of the Cold War when Carter took office in January 1977. A year earlier, Fidel Castro had sent 36,000 Cuban troops to Angola to protect the leftist MPLA from a South African invasion backed by the Gerald Ford administration. The Cubans remained in Angola until 1991.

Mozambique was no longer governed by America’s NATO ally, Portugal, but instead by the left-leaning Frelimo. Apartheid South Africa – so recently a stable, pro-American outpost far from the Cold War – suddenly faced the prospect of being surrounded by hostile black-ruled states.

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The unfolding events in southern Africa riveted Washington’s attention on Rhodesia, where the insurgency against the white minority government of Ian Smith was escalating. One week after the Carter administration took office it assessed the crisis in Rhodesia:

“This situation contains the seeds of another Angola … If the breakdown of talks means intensified warfare, Soviet/Cuban influence is bound to increase”.

The administration knew that if the war did not end, the Cuban troops might cross the continent to help the rebels.

And then what?

It was unthinkable that the Carter administration, with its stress on human rights, would intervene in Rhodesia to support the racist government of Ian Smith. But, given the Cold War, it was equally unthinkable that it would stand aside passively enabling another Soviet-backed Cuban victory in Africa. Therefore, the administration’s first Presidential Review Memorandum on southern Africa, written immediately after Carter took office, announced:

“In terms of urgency, the Rhodesian problem is highest priority”.

The Carter administration assembled a high-powered negotiating team, led by UN Ambassador Andrew Young and Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, to coordinate with the British and hammer out a settlement. These negotiations, spearheaded by the Americans, led to the Lancaster House talks in Britain and the free elections in 1980 and black majority rule in an independent in Zimbabwe.

There was another reason for Carter’s interest in southern Africa: race. Carter grew up in the segregated South of the 1920s and 1930s. As a child, he did not question the racist strictures of the Jim Crow South, but as he matured, served in the US Navy and was elected governor of Georgia, his worldview evolved.

He appreciated how the civil rights movement had helped liberate the US South from its regressive past, and he regretted that he had not been an active participant in the movement. When I asked Carter why he had expended so much effort on Rhodesia, part of his explanation was:

“I felt a sense of responsibility and some degree of guilt that we had spent an entire century after the Civil War still persecuting blacks, and to me the situation in Africa was inseparable from the fact of deprivation or persecution or oppression of Black people in the South”.

Parallels with the US South

Carter’s belief that there were parallels between the freedom struggles in the US South and in southern Africa may have been naïve, but it was important.

Influenced by Andrew Young, who had been a close aide to Martin Luther King, Carter transcended the knee-jerk anti-communist reaction of previous American presidents to the members of the Patriotic Front, the loose alliance of insurgents fighting the regime of Ian Smith.

Young challenged the Manichaean tropes of the Cold War. He explained in 1977:

“Communism has never been a threat to me … Racism has always been a threat – and that has been the enemy of all of my life”.

Young helped Carter see the Patriotic Front, albeit leftist guerrillas supported by Cuba and the Soviet Union, as freedom fighters. Therefore, unlike the Gerald Ford administration which had shunned the Front and tried to settle the conflict through negotiations with the white leaders of Rhodesia and South Africa, Carter considered the Front the key players. He brought them to the fore of the negotiations. This was extraordinarily rare in the annals of US diplomacy during the Cold War.

Carter has not received the credit his administration deserves for the Zimbabwe settlement. It was a success not only in moral terms, enabling free elections in an independent country. It also precluded a repetition of the Cuban intervention in Angola. It was Carter’s signal achievement in sub-Saharan Africa.

Angola and the Cold War reflexes

Carter also improved US relations with the continent as a whole. He increased trade, diplomatic contacts and, simply, treated Black Africa with respect.

During the war in the Horn of Africa, he resisted intense pressure to throw full US support behind the Somalis when the Somali government waged a war of aggression against leftist Ethiopia. His administration attempted valiantly to negotiate a settlement in Namibia and condemned apartheid in South Africa.

But in Angola, as historian Piero Gleijeses’ superb research has shown, Carter reverted to Cold War reflexes. He asserted that the US would restore full relations with Angola only after the Cuban troops had departed. This, even though he knew that the Cubans were there by invitation of the Angolan government, and were essential to hold the South Africans at bay. Carter’s was the typical response of US governments to any perceived communist threat. But it serves to highlight – by contrast – how unusual was the administration’s policy of embracing the Patriotic Front in Zimbabwe.

For the next 40 years, Carter focused more on sub-Saharan Africa than on any other region of the world. The Carter Centre’s almost total eradication of Guinea worm has saved an estimated 80 million Africans from this devastating disease. Its election monitoring throughout the continent, and its conflict resolution programmes, have bolstered democracy.

Carter’s work in Africa, and especially in Zimbabwe, forms a significant and underappreciated part of his impressive legacy.

•Mitchell is professor of History, North Carolina State University, United States. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-african-legacy-peacemaker-negotiator-and-defender-of-rights.

January 3, 2025
Crippled insecurity: Kudos to PBAT
- By Oluwole Ogundele
Happy new year to all Nigerians at home and abroad.

I had a dream that this country would be much better in 2025 and beyond, through the lens of great commitment and truth. I detest flattery in all its ramifications. Excessive praising of the political leadership class is an act of spiritual deficiency or spirit-lessness of monumental dimensions. Only little minds celebrate evil or bad leaders just because of their ugly stomach or unfettered materialism.

It is time for the opposition group members to learn to separate politics from governance in order to engender peace and progress on a sustainable scale. That is what the ordinary people want, regardless of their ethnic and/or religious affiliations. Opposition political culture must be rooted in constructive/sophisticated criticism instead of myopia and unbridled self-interest.

Given the above explanation, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu deserves commendation, with a special emphasis on the issue of insecurity that defined and ruled the immediate past administration. It is on record, that the immediate past government was characterised by all kinds of crimes particularly banditry and kidnapping for ransom. Indeed, foreign and local criminals laid siege to Nigeria, as if the society was rudderless. During this pre-Tinubu period, the country reached unprecedented levels of insecurity. The rhetorical champion of Africa was in a coma. Many innocent lives were wasted. Not every Nigerian has a memory like a sieve. The difference is clear! This is with reference to the all-important issue of insecurity. Security is the foundation for economic growth and development both at the sub-national and national levels.

Read Also: No disagreement with Govs over local government administration — Tinubu

Bandits among other evil men now know more than hitherto, that the fear of President Tinubu is the beginning of sanity and by extension, wisdom. No more defecation in the public space. The remaining deadly criminals and their collaborators must change or perish! PBAT is now in charge, given the huge power conferred on him by Providence.

However, the liberation struggle has to go on unabated until the country becomes very liveable for all. The state governors should not go to sleep or be telling stories. They are the chief security officers of their constituents (states). Security is their most paramount assignment. Any governor who thinks that security is in the domain of nauseating rhetoric should resign. Enough is enough!

If I were President Bola Tinubu, I would consider any governor with rampant cases of banditry and kidnapping in his state, to be a saboteur. I would see such a governor as an enemy of Nigerians. Each governor gets a heavy allocation monthly from the federal government. The people need to focus more than before on their state governors. Traditional rulers are the best social surveyors of their communities. State governors must encourage them to play some critical roles in security management. These local leaders know the criminals and new strangers within their territories. This underscores the centrality of community policing to peace and progress in Nigeria.

Governors, using available structures should be able to fish out a few community leaders colluding with criminals. All culprits must be severely dealt with, within the confines of the law. Sentiments must not be given a space to stand. Outsiders cannot enter a community to do evil, without the knowledge of some locals. Nobody should frustrate the efforts of the federal government as it tries to crush insecurity across the land.

Agricultural productions will certainly begin to go up in the face of relative peace and stability. More and more people who had fled their farms would return. Many Nigerians are ready to work and reduce material poverty to the barest minimum, when our roads, villages and farms are no longer under the control of insurgents, kidnappers and armed robbers from within and without Nigeria. Our immigration policy must be revisited. Many criminals are entering Nigeria through the numerous porous borders.

The recent deaths arising from stampedes across the country were a testament to the current unprecedented, multi-dimensional poverty. This arises from many years of cumulative governmental failure. Therefore, it is dangerous to begin to analyse the situation within the framework of reductionism. Poor crowd management was just a peripheral factor.

Again, many Nigerian technocrats particularly in economics continue to flamboyantly bamboozle us with statistics that our economy is growing. This thesis is meaningless to an average Nigerian citizen whose income diminishes daily as a result of hyper-inflation. The Nigerian economy actually grows when the incomes of workers can take them home. That is, a scenario that enables house wives to go to the market, and return home without becoming rigorous mathematicians-calculating and re-calculating. I often pity our women in this connection.

PBAT needs more rigorous policy evaluation and re-evaluation, in order to liberate Nigerians from the bondage of poverty and hopelessness. There is need for more efforts in the sphere of non-kinetic methodology. Sustainable peace may remain a wild goose chase, in the face of monumental poverty.

I humbly submit here, that there should be no more taxes to bear by the already highly impoverished Nigerian masses. They must be allowed to breathe. No doubt, the government needs a great deal of money to function optimally. But there are people-friendly options. Block most of the economic leakages such as illegal oil bunkering and other corrupt practices of many of the political class members. Government policies (no matter how aesthetically appealing), are not cast in iron. Nothing is fixed once and for all especially in a democracy. In this regard, openness and of course, humility are of the essence. Effective communication with the led also occupies a central position in the scheme of things. It is one critical element of robust democracy.

Cost of governance has to be drastically reduced. The political class members take a disproportionately/godlessly large chunk of the national wealth while the led are desperately hungry. This is one of the reasons why peace and progress continue to elude Nigeria, despite its huge natural and cultural resources. The Nigerian citizens want to see a financially disciplined leadership with a great deal of human compassion and empathy.

Nobody is excited about the stolen monies claimed to have been retrieved by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). Where did all the ones retrieved earlier go to? There is no transparency! No probity! Consequently, there is a trust deficit. It seems to me, that demons are let loose upon the Nigerian space. Nigerians need to know how their commonwealth is being managed by the leaders. Shockingly, big thieves are hardly punished. Our system only jails or kills those who steal goats and fowls in the neighbourhood. This is an illogical approach to societal development in all its ramifications. What a country!

We cannot continue to do things the same way and expect different results. Dear President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Nigerian masses are looking up to you for salvation. Kindly kill (or at least tame) corruption-Nigeria’s number one enemy of peace and progress. Give some knock-out punches to terrorists, kidnappers and their collaborators, so that Nigeria can become liveable again.

•Prof Ogundele is of Dept. of Archaeology and Anthropology, University of Ibadan.
January 2, 2025
Ahead of midterm, signs favourable for the Tinubu administration

Although the Tinubu Administration’s midterm is five months away, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu can proudly reflect on his administration’s journey over the last 19 months. After initial turbulence, the government concluded 2024 stronger than 2023, as many policies began yielding significant results that even the most ardent detractors could not ignore.

Under President Tinubu’s leadership, NNPC Limited has fixed two of the four state-owned oil refineries, achieving what many had cynically regarded as improbable. The administration’s efforts have led to a rise in crude oil production, with an expected inflow of more dollars into the Federation Account and remarkable accretion into the foreign reserves. The government remains focused on gas development, attracting investors’ interest. Dollars have flowed into the country through fresh investments in several sectors. The administration created an innovative Ministry of Livestock Development to unlock the previously untapped potential in animal husbandry, steering the country from tragedy to opportunity.

The stock market ended the year on a high note, breaking its initial record under the Tinubu presidency. The All Share Index hit over 103,000 from 55,738 on May 30 2023. Market capitalisation is over N63 trillion. In the last 19 months, local and foreign investors have invested unprecedented amounts in the market.

The government is also expanding the national road infrastructure stock by building legacy superhighways from Lagos to Calabar and Sokoto to Badagry.

Read Also: No disagreement with Govs over local government administration — Tinubu

The administration’s successful euro bond issuance of $2.2 billion notably attracted over $9 billion in interest, while a domestic dollar bond of $500 million was oversubscribed. These developments indicate confidence in the Nigerian economy.

Revenue generation has increased, and all tiers of government received more funds to spend on the welfare of Nigerians, including the 774 local councils that recently won financial autonomy.

November and December 2024 proved especially remarkable. Shell and Partners announced an estimated $5 billion investment in the Bonga North oil field. Brazil’s JSB, one of the world’s leading integrated livestock companies, announced a $2.5 billion investment in livestock development in Nigeria, with some officials flying into the country to actualise the pledge. Fuel prices began to decrease amid competition from local refineries, supporting President Tinubu’s belief that market forces would lower the prices of consumer goods to benefit Nigerians. For the first time in our history, the proposed 2025 budget included no provision for fuel subsidy. There was no scarcity, too. Instead, the government has proposed more funds for capital expenditure, health, education, and national security in the record-breaking N49.7 trillion budget. Critics remain silent as positive indicators continue to emerge.

Not an accidental president, Tinubu took office on May 29, 2023, with a clear vision for Nigeria: to renew hope through a programme of action to foster economic diversification, stability, and prosperity and build a trillion-dollar economy.

He has implemented many of his campaign promises and those in his Renewed Hope Agenda.

Although unintended consequences have emerged, temporarily affecting the well-being of all Nigerians, the administration is working hard to ameliorate the burden on the masses.

President Tinubu consistently implements reforms, daring to confront headlong the country’s many hydra-headed socio-economic problems and committing to the transformative change the country urgently requires. Posterity will be kind to him and remember his era as a reform-minded leader.

Positive signs continue to emerge: apart from declining fuel prices, the country recorded foreign trade surpluses for three consecutive quarters, foreign reserves are rising and the Naira is gaining strength against the US dollar.

One notable achievement of President Tinubu’s tenure is fulfilling his promise to implement a student loan programme. This initiative financially supports students, ensuring that higher education is accessible to all, regardless of economic background. Investing in the education sector, the administration aims to empower the youth and equip them with the skills needed for Nigeria’s future growth.

In addition to the student loan scheme, President Tinubu has advanced the consumer credit initiative, another campaign promise, and plans to deepen it in the first quarter of 2025. Promoting access to credit is part of the administration’s broader strategy to stimulate consumption, drive entrepreneurship, and boost the domestic economy.

On his first day in office, President Tinubu decisively eliminated the fuel subsidy, which had long burdened Nigeria’s economy. While the initial removal triggered higher fuel prices, the market is now experiencing a downward trend. This development illustrates the administration’s commitment to market-driven pricing and economic efficiency, which should benefit public investment in critical sectors in the long term.

The administration introduced electric vehicles and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as alternatives to reduce Nigerian dependency on petrol. In the past 12 months, more Nigerians have converted their vehicles to CNG, spurred by government and private sector investment. A new industry is gradually unfolding, creating new jobs along the value chain whilst promoting a cleaner environment.

Another bold economic reform was unifying Nigeria’s multiple exchange rates, which previously caused economic distortion, criminal arbitrage, and speculation. Following an initial depreciation, the Naira has stabilised against the US dollar, reflecting increased investor confidence and a more transparent foreign exchange policy.

Investment inflows further testify to the positive impact of President Tinubu’s policies. The oil, gas, and solid minerals industries are experiencing renewed interest and investment. These sectors are crucial for enhancing Nigeria’s export capacity and creating jobs, thus driving economic diversification and growth. Moreover, Nigeria’s foreign reserves have shown a promising increase, bolstered by improved trade balances and strategic monetary and fiscal management.

Looking ahead to 2025, President Tinubu plans to introduce what could be his most transformative reform yet—tax restructuring. With four bills before the National Assembly, the proposed reform seeks to streamline tax systems and administration in Nigeria to promote better investment and a friendly business climate.

Under the proposed tax reform, low-income earners under the minimum wage bracket and small businesses within a certain threshold will be exempt from paying taxes. The administration’s mantra is that taxes should focus on prosperity, not people’s or businesses’ hardships. The government focuses on expanding the tax net, making taxes less burdensome to taxpayers, and getting wealthy people to pay their fair share. This progressive approach reflects the administration’s commitment to equity and fiscal sustainability.

However, the road to reform does not come without challenges. President Tinubu faces resistance, particularly from politicians and tax evaders who have expressed concerns about the implications of the changes that will come with reforming our tax systems. President Tinubu, who is not oblivious to the pushback, has said he is willing to make necessary adjustments, as democracy is about negotiations, give and take.

President Tinubu’s administration has demonstrated firm determination over the last 19 months to succeed against all odds and reposition the economy for better performance.

While challenges remain, especially with food inflation, President Tinubu’s leadership has shown a proactive and committed approach to addressing these issues. The administration’s trajectory suggests a path toward Nigeria’s economic stability and social development. Though it is not midterm for the administration, realising a prosperous and equitable country looks promising and achievable. The Tinubu administration is undoubtedly steadfast in its resolve to improve Nigeria, and it’s on course to achieve all the campaign promises to the people.

•Onanuga is Special Adviser on Information and Strategy to President Tinubu.

January 2, 2025
Trump’s America First and Nigeria Air

By Chike Okolocha

The America First policy of the new Trump administration presents a unique opportunity for Nigerian aviation officials and policymakers to re-launch the troubled Nigeria Air project. Recall that Nigeria Air was reportedly set to go into operation on May 29, 2023 before it was scuttled by several challenges including its inability to acquire an Air Operator’s Licence, alleged inequitable technical partnership with Ethiopian Airlines, lack of operating aircraft as well as an unfathomable opposition from domestic airlines. Unfortunately, in spite of having sunk millions of naira and foreign currencies on the project, government officials suspended the new national carrier indefinitely.

Government should use the opportunity of the new developments in the United States of America to lift the suspension on Nigeria Air and give value to the quantum of money already spent on the national airline. How can this happen?

First let us look at what the America First policy entails. It is widely expected that the new American administration which commences on January 20, will immediately prioritise American interests over and above prevailing global perspectives and imperatives. It aims to cut down American trade deficits, facilitate energy independence, technology dominance and exports. It is even projected that, under the new policy, America will withdraw from global commitments including a certain reluctance to deploy American troops in hotspots around the world. Indeed, it looks like the era of America policing the world may be coming to an end.

In Nigeria, the response to the America First policy includes what is now emerging as the Nigeria Next agenda in her relations with America. A product of pro-American policy analysis and propaganda, the Nigeria Next agenda focuses on how Nigeria will benefit from the imminent boost in middle class incomes which the America First policy guarantees. With more ample disposable income in their pockets, Nigerians in the US who largely belong to the middle class will remit more monies home and proudly travel home more often in their national carrier for businesses, family visits and holidays. Thus the new American policy will potentially sustain Nigeria as the largest recipient of diaspora remittances in Africa.

Read Also: Ahead of midterm, emerging signs favourable for the Tinubu administration

Undesirably, in recent times, diaspora remittances have been in decline, from US$22.3 billion in 2014-2019 to US$19.9 billion in 2020-2023. It is expected that the large passenger volume in the lucrative Nigeria-America route presently dominated by United Airlines (of America) will energise the new national carrier. Another “golden” route for Nigeria Air is the quintessential Lagos-London route which is believed to be one of the most lucrative in the world dominated by foreign airlines. The single slot operated by Air Peace to London Gatwick Airport is not only grossly inadequate, but an affront to the nation and the aviation industry.

Nigeria Next agenda also eyes the immediate benefits of easier and cheaper access to American technology proposed in the new trade regime under the America First policy. This will facilitate acquisition of aircraft by Nigeria Air which is said to already have an understanding with Boeing. It is noted that Nigeria’s capital imports from America declined from US$17.8 million in 2014-2019 to US$2.1 million in 2020-2023. The chief purpose of the America First policy in trade is to reverse this decline and upstage China, Nigeria’s principal trade partner. Fortunately, China is not a challenge to America in the market for commercial aviation aircraft. And, of course, the plethora of inept and indebted domestic carriers also stands to benefit from the new regime of less regulation and low-interest import of technological goods from America.

By facilitating increases in the import of American aircrafts (and other technological goods) into Nigeria, the America First presents a win-win scenario for Nigeria. While more American technological goods in Nigeria translate to more American capital in the country, the airline business presents a singular simplification of the inflow foreign exchange which may ease the eternal pressure on the naira.

Because the United States suffers a trade deficit with Nigeria, we should expect the America First policy to specifically target Nigeria. We can readily douse the trade deficit irking America by simply increasing technological imports (including civil aviation aircraft). We must appreciate the fact that with the new policy, America is moving away from the antiquated principle of comparative advantage enshrined in Ricardian economics and adopting transactional options at variance with free market principles. Interestingly, the free market ideology is still very significant in Nigeria’s economic policies. In spite of this, it regrettable that Nigeria has apparently lost its comparative advantage and strength in crude oil production as it has become difficult to increase volumes and it is public knowledge that the world is gradually moving away from fossil fuels. In fact, America First policy throws up challenges which obligate Nigerian authorities to think outside the free market box.

Even more significant is the expected renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) as President Trump returns to power in 2025. Although the America First policy of the returning president is expected to extenuate free markets endorsed by AGOA, he is likely to invoke a priority trade partnership with Nigeria in view of prevailing deficits to boost exports to Nigeria. AGOA covers 7000 products. In this context, the Nigeria Next Agenda favourably views AGOA as another channel of improving Nigeria-America trade. Nigeria Air presents an excellent opportunity of promoting American technological export to Nigeria in the best spirits of the America First policy and AGOA. This is exclusive of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) Programme in which the G-7 nations led by United States specifically aim to halt the supreme headway of China in Africa.

In conclusion, we acknowledge the adage that every challenge presents an opportunity. Although many persons and nations across the world view the incoming Trump administration with great trepidation, there is a silver lining in the America First policy which Nigerian authorities can utilise to re-launch Nigeria Air. In view of the potentials of the airline for the Nigerian people, the economy and the quantum of funds already spent on the project, this new opportunity to revisit it should be embraced with both arms.

•Prof Okolocha is of Social Science Academy of Nigeria, Abuja.

January 1, 2025
Lessons from the stampedes
- By Zayd Ibn Isah
The last few days have been marked by shocking yet heart-breaking reports of stampedes in Ibadan, Anambra, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, where over 40 people were confirmed dead while scrambling for food.

The tragic incidents began in Ibadan, where a Christmas funfair organized by Queen Naomi, the ex-wife of the revered Ooni of Ife, for over 1,000 children at the famous Islamic High School in the Bashorun district, turned disastrous. An event meant to be a joyful Christmas celebration ended in a fiasco, as about 35 children lost their lives in the ensuing chaos.

It was a national tragedy of immense proportion. Many Nigerians began asking questions about what transpired and insisting on answers. “Were there no police officers present? If the police were present, what were they doing to allow the motherland to lose 35 of her children—children born through the pain of labour—in one fell swoop? Ah! Heads must roll.” These are some of the questions and reactions that trailed the tragic incident.

However, just as the nation was nursing the wound of losing 35 leaders of tomorrow, and before the dust could settle, news of similar incidents came in from Okija and even Abuja, the seat of power.

The Abuja stampede happened at the Holy Trinity Catholic Church in Maitama. Meanwhile, the Anambra stampede occurred at Amamaranta Stadium in Okija during a rice distribution event organised by Chief Ernest Obiejesi, a well-known businessman and philanthropist, through his foundation, the Obijackson Foundation.

Although it is heart-breaking that people have to lose their lives in the struggle to find food to eat, one thing we can take away from the organisers of these charity events is their pure intention to give back to society.

Surely, these tragedies could have been avoided or mitigated if relevant government agencies had been involved. Hence, the question of negligence arises. Or perhaps, they underestimated the number of people who would show up to get food, which is why they didn’t involve the police. But how could they not have foreseen this, given the current socio-economic situation the country is facing? Let us even forget about the fact that there is hunger in the land; naturally, we are accustomed to freebies. Hunger or no hunger, organise a charity event today, and you would be surprised by the large number of people who would turn up. Even those who have enough to eat would want more.

Read Also: Governor Ododo presents N3 billion to 80 communities in Kogi

Unfortunately, the tragic history of stampedes in Nigeria is not a new phenomenon. Over the years, various stampedes have claimed countless lives, often during events where large crowds gather to receive charity or partake in public celebrations.

One of the most devastating incidents occurred in 2010 in Lagos, when a stampede at the National Stadium during a free distribution of rice and other goods led to the deaths of over 15 people. The event, organised by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and other bodies, was intended to help the vulnerable but ended in disaster due to a lack of adequate crowd control measures. This incident highlighted the same issues: insufficient planning, poor crowd management, and the absence of adequate security forces to manage the influx of people.

In 2013, another tragic stampede occurred in Port Harcourt during a charity event organised by the late Christian philanthropist, Pastor Bimbo Odukoya Foundation. During the distribution of gifts and food items to thousands of attendees, a rush for food led to a stampede that resulted in the deaths of several individuals. Again, there were no clear provisions for crowd control, and the event organisers were left to deal with the chaos without the necessary support from the authorities.

In 2017, a stampede occurred in the Okadigbo community in the south-eastern part of Nigeria, where food distribution organised by a popular Nigerian billionaire led to the deaths of at least 10 people. The situation was worsened by a lack of sufficient law enforcement officers at the scene, and the overcrowding caused an uncontrollable rush for the food, leading to chaos and the unfortunate loss of lives.

These tragic incidents should leave us with heavy hearts. While it is easy to blame the organisers for inadequate planning, we must also take a moment to reflect on our own lack of orderliness. Do we really need the presence of police personnel or a battalion of soldiers to maintain orderliness in the twenty-first century?

After the stampedes in Ibadan, Okija, and Abuja, I came across a video of a Christmas giveaway in Canada, where about 15,000 people gathered to collect food. At first, I was shocked that people could actually queue up for free food in almighty Canada. As we used to say in our street parlance, “Everywhere is red.”

According to the organisers, their initial plan was to cater to 1,000 people, but 15,000 showed up. Despite the rain, people waited patiently for hours, and only 2,000 were fortunate enough to leave with food.

They never even intended to involve the police until they saw the large crowd. If only 2,000 or 5,000 people had shown up, they wouldn’t have bothered the police, knowing well that the people would conduct themselves responsibly. Now, that is how civilised people behave.

And mind you, the charity event in Canada wasn’t much different from those organised in Nigeria. The key difference, however, was that no deaths were recorded. This was because the people conducted themselves in an orderly manner, even under challenging circumstances. Ironically, some of those in the Canadian queue may have been Nigerians, who might not have behaved as patiently had they been back home.

Former Lagos Police Commissioner Fatai Owoseni once shared a story about a friend visiting from USA. This friend committed a traffic offense in Lagos and was arrested on the spot. He called Owoseni to complain, saying, “Your boys have arrested me.” When Owoseni asked what he had done, the friend admitted to breaking traffic rules. To the friend’s surprise, Owoseni responded, “Would you have acted this way in America if you had been arrested for breaking traffic laws?” Embarrassed, the friend hung up.

This anecdote emphasizes a fundamental truth: our conduct in public reflects who we are as a society. In Nigeria, many people obey traffic rules only when traffic wardens are present. Even basic actions like joining queues at banks or fuel stations often require security guards with sticks to enforce compliance, as though we were sheep. It’s worth asking: does the saying “human beings are higher animals” really apply to us?

As we begin a new year, let us resolve to embrace a culture of orderliness. While we hold our leaders accountable for their actions, we must also strive to be exemplary followers. Imagine a society where charity events bring only joy and support, not sorrow and feelings of melancholy.

Together, we can build a nation where compassion meets respect and tragedy is replaced by progress. The journey starts with us.

•Isah can be reached at lawcadet1@gmail.com
December 31, 2024
Shobanjo: From zero to hero

On Tuesday last week, on the eve of the birthday anniversary of the world’s saviour, Jesus Christ, Biodun Shobanjo, an advertising legend turned 80 and the world gathered in Lagos to honour him. It was not just his admission into the respected Octogenarian Club that brought the movers and shakers together, it was more of his admirable contributions to the marketing communications industry, the media, his philanthropic exploits and his exertions for a better Nigeria.

These achievements have moulded him into a legend or if you prefer, an avatar who has been decorated by Nigerian and African organisations for his show of excellence and dedication to the public good. These awards include but are not limited to the prestigious Zik’s Prize in Leadership, Officer of the Order of the Niger (OON) awarded by the federal government in October 2022.

On December 17, the Marketing Edge which is the leading magazine in the marketing communications industry crowned Shobanjo as the ‘Father of Advertising in Africa’. Before this two, first generation universities namely, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife and the University of Lagos had decorated him with their honorary doctorate degrees. While Obafemi Awolowo University did the recognition in December 2009, the University of Lagos followed that path during its 51st convocation ceremony in 2022.

In totality, all of these honours put together represent the very definition, the apogee and the zenith of success. His success is amplified by his lowly background. His father, Joseph, was a worker with the Nigerian Railways while his mother, Morin, was a small time businesswoman. His father died on December 29, 1959 at the age of 49 leaving Biodun Shobanjo, his mother and his three siblings stranded. Biodun was just 15 years old then and had just been promoted to class three at Odogbolu Grammar School in Ogun State. To add injury to injury, both his father and his uncle, Okanlawon died a week apart. That was a double whammy, a devastating two punch combination. The young Biodun had to depend on his mother and God to discover his destiny and decide on his destination.

He had to work to support his mother and his three siblings. He got a job with the Customs Service but left the job six months later for some inexplicable reasons. He got a job at the Nigerian Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) but later left to join Grant Advertising on a lower salary than what he earned at the NBC. It was here that Shobanjo made his impact as a professional advertising man. Grant was founded by Chief Adeyemi Lawson, leader of the Grail Movement in Nigeria. Lawson owed Grant a lot of money and when one lady brought an advert from Lawson for publication without clearing the debt, Shobanjo refused despite some subtle threats from the lady. Lawson respected that show of professionalism by Shobanjo and paid up the debt.

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On October 16, 1979 Shobanjo seeing the inadequacies in Grant decided to register his own company Insight Communications Limited. On January 2, 1980 he and his young Turks decided to start pounding the streets of Lagos in search of business. Shobanjo’s philosophy for success was “Be excellent, think global, act local.” In his office he also had a placard that read “It is good to be big. It is better to be good. It is best to be both.” He also defined for his staff his own view of what advertising can achieve.

He said: “Advertising primarily helps a rolling ball to roll faster but cannot get a ball to roll uphill.” With these various expressions of entrepreneurial pieces of philosophy, he pushed his staff hard for the achievement of results. He did not compromise on standards and creativity and excellence. As he and his team achieved success, they knew that the reward for success is more success. The difficult thing about success is having to keep it up. Shobanjo was able to keep it up, establishing several companies that came under the canopy of Troyka Holdings where he has been the chairman. For him, success is the best revenge for his lowly background. He knew that with hard work that background was going to vanish giving way to a new background of prosperity that comes with success.

A philosopher says that success is five percent inspiration and 95 percent who you know. I have no idea if Shobanjo believed in this philosophy but it would be correct to say that he is a good relationship builder. That excellence in relationship building must have helped his business extensively.

His success also hinged on his principled stand in favour of merit, excellence and meticulousness. At Insight, there was this one year management trainee programme for brilliant young graduates. They had to go through three rounds of screening before being employed. One of Shobanjo’s nieces went through it but was not employed. She did not understand why she could not get a job in her uncle’s company. She refused to talk to her uncle for a year. Shobanjo insisted that the selection must be strictly through due process, relation or no relation. That is the way to arrive at meritocracy. The other route leads to mediocrity. Meritocracy leads to excellence and success while mediocrity leads to inferiority and failure.

Today Shobanjo’s Insight Communications Limited is Nigeria’s leading marketing communications company. The feat has been warmly welcomed by friends and grudgingly acknowledged by competitors who claim that his companies are successful because of “sharp practices.” But no sharp practices have been discovered against his companies. Such loose talk is a reflection of carnivorous competition which exists today in many industries. In the book “The Will to Win, The Story of Biodun Shobanjo”, written by Dotun Adekanmbi in 2020, such accusations have been decisively dismissed with factual reporting and analysis. So at 80, Shobanjo does not need to cower in a corner and pull the cloth over his face. His practice has been very professional and very ethical. So he deserves all the accolades he has received so far. He fights for success largely with the tool of excellence. That is why he is successful.

Success has many fathers but it also has many traducers. But there is no short cut to success. You must first go through the wilderness before reaching the Promised Land, your life’s destination. That is so because success is not the equivalent of low hanging fruits. The fruits of success are high up there in the sky.

Shobanjo’s life at 80 is worth celebrating because on January 30, 1992 he nearly lost his life. Some armed robbers came to attack him about 3am when policemen that he had invited left. He fired back without knowing that the four armed robbers had escaped. Some fellows wove all kinds of false stories against him because some policemen were wounded in the encounter. He was arrested and detained at the Special Investigations and Intelligence Bureau at Panti Street, Yaba. I had to go to the Vice President Admiral Augustus Aikhomu to explain to him truthfully, what happened before he was set free. So Shobanjo has paid his dues. That makes his success story inspirational. To get to the top, to make a success of your life, you can use the ladder or the lift. Apparently Shobanjo used both. That is why his success from zero to hero is very phenomenal. The choice is yours.

December 31, 2024
2025 Budget and ending hunger
- By Emmanuel Nnamdi Osadebay
As of November, Nigeria’s hunger crisis remains severe with over 30 million people projected to experience acute food insecurity by mid-2025. With Nigeria’s estimated population of approximately 223 million, it means that about 14.8% of the Nigerian population is at the risk of hunger. Addressing our food insecurity should be at the core of our fiscal proposal and appropriation bill, given that food security is fundamental to public health, economic stability, and social well-being.

In designing and implementing budgets that support government agricultural and food security policies, ensuring that the population has reliable access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food must be considered a national emergency and priority that can enhance productivity, reduce poverty, and promote sustainable development.

The food stampede in Ibadan, Anambra and Abuja reveals the severity of hunger in Nigeria and validates in reality, the last T200 Hunger Report which highlighted the severe state of starvation across many communities in Nigeria. Food insecurity in Nigeria remains a significant challenge, with rural areas, conflict-prone regions, and marginalized communities bearing the brunt.

According to the World Food Programme, over 25 million Nigerians are at risk of food insecurity, a figure exacerbated by inflation, climate change, and disruptions in local food systems. The effects of hunger are far-reaching, undermining health, education, and economic productivity. Nigeria’s hunger crisis and food insecurity, driven by several factors, including economic hardships, high food inflation leading to soaring food prices, persistent insecurity in various regions, and climate change effects such as flooding as seen this year in Borno State must be tackled from multiple layers of government investment in critical infrastructures for economic growth.

In the proposed 2025 national budget, Nigeria has allocated N826.5 billion to the agricultural sector, marking a significant increase from previous years. Understandably, the proposed 2025 budget by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the National Assembly has sparked critical discussions about Nigeria’s development priorities. Among the key areas of focus, addressing hunger and achieving food security must stand at the forefront. With millions of Nigerians facing food insecurity and malnutrition, the 2025 budget offers an opportunity to take bold steps toward ending hunger in the country.

Agriculture is the backbone of Nigeria’s economy and the most viable pathway to achieving Zero Hunger. To this end, the 2025 budget must prioritize investments in agriculture to boost food production and reduce dependency on imports. Either at the federal, state of local government level, key areas for funding must include security as already indicated in the budget; modernizing farming techniques that will enable small holder farmers with access to modern tools, technology, and training to improve productivity; build climate-resilient agriculture system that supports the adoption of drought-tolerant crops and sustainable farming practices to mitigate the impacts of climate change; and ensure access to credit, by expanding affordable credit schemes for farmers to scale their operations and invest in innovations.

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We must further consider a significant portion of Nigeria’s agricultural output that is lost due to poor post-harvest management and weak supply chains. For the 2025 budget to effectively combat hunger, agricultural institutions must allocate resources to rural infrastructure development in building and maintaining rural roads to facilitate the movement of food from farms to markets; create storage facilities as establishing cold storage systems and silos to reduce post-harvest losses; and designate agro-processing zones by investing in food processing centres to add value to raw produce and create jobs.

While boosting food production is essential, hunger cannot be eradicated without addressing affordability and access. The 2025 budget must ensure adequate funding for social protection programs, such as school feeding initiatives, by providing free, nutritious meals to students in public schools to combat malnutrition and encourage school attendance; coordinate conditional cash transfers in a transparent way that supports vulnerable households with direct financial assistance to improve their purchasing power; and provide emergency food relief when necessary by allocating funds for food aid in areas affected by conflicts and natural disasters.

The fact that defence has the largest share of the budget item lines is good for ensuring that Nigeria is safe for agricultural purposes and food security. Conflict and insecurity have been major drivers of hunger in Nigeria, particularly in the Northeast and Northwest regions. The 2025 budget must include targeted interventions for rebuilding affected communities, including resettling displaced populations, providing access to farmland, and implementing peace-building programs to ensure long-term stability.

The success of the 2025 budget in ending hunger will depend on effective collaboration between government, private sector, and development partners. Additionally, transparency and accountability in the allocation and utilization of funds are crucial. Monitoring mechanisms should be established to track progress and ensure that resources reach intended beneficiaries. The 2025 budget presents an opportunity to set Nigeria on a path toward Zero Hunger. By prioritizing agricultural development, strengthening food systems, and expanding social protection, the government can create a future where every Nigerian has access to adequate and nutritious food.

Ending hunger is not just a moral obligation but an economic imperative. A well-nourished population is healthier, more productive, and better equipped to contribute to national development. As the National Assembly deliberates on the 2025 budget, it is crucial to ensure that the fight against hunger is placed at the centre of Nigeria’s development agenda.

We are conscious of the need to achieve zero hunger in Nigeria by 2030 and as we look beyond our second-year anniversary as an establishment committed to ensuring that majority of Nigerians are lifted out of the hunger line by 2030, T200 will continue to drive our modernized agricultural and farming activities that help to build a well-nourished country, and sustain our corporate social responsibilities in providing food relief to rural communities in dire need of food for immediate sustenance.

•Amb. Osadebay is of T200 Foundation. He wrote from Lagos.
December 31, 2024
Councils funds and uses

Ebonyi State Governor Ogbonna Nwifuru recently set a peculiar benchmark for financial accountability in local government administration. He ordered chairmen of the state’s 13 councils to settle all outstanding salaries and pensions of their workers within 24 hours or hand in their resignation. There was no subsequent report of any council chairman obliging his resignation directive, or of salaries and pensions remaining outstanding. So, his bluff – if you call it that – worked.

The Ebonyi governor was reported to have issued the ultimatum on Sunday, 22nd December, at a Christmas party organised for the elderly and widows by the state government in Abakaliki, the state capital. Addressing some 5,000 attendees at the party, he frowned on a situation whereby most local government areas had failed to pay staff salaries for November and December, saying the development was unacceptable. He described delayed payment of salaries and pensions to council workers in the state as worrisome, stressing that such trend contradicted his administration’s commitment to delivering good governance anchored on the people’s charter of needs; and he warned that he would not fold his arms and allow people to sabotage his efforts at executing the social contract with the people.

Nwifuru said: “I heard and I believe it is true that local government staff have not received their November and December salaries. But I have told the Principal Secretary to the Governor and all the council chairmen and coordinators that if by 2 O’clock tomorrow (Monday, 23rd December) all the staff of local government areas including pensioners do not receive their money, all of them should resign. What this means is that they must be in the bank as early as 7 O’clock in the morning with the payment schedules for their November and December salaries, including Christmas bonuses.” He added: “We cannot tolerate any lackadaisical attitude.”

The state numero apologised to council workers over the development, acknowledging that as governor, he has the responsibility to supervise the local government system in the state. He, however, stressed that he was not in custody of council funds. “I am not in charge of local government funds, but I am the one in charge of supervising the administration of local government areas,” he said, adding: “So, when local government chairmen are not doing what they are supposed to be doing, it is my right to discuss with them and advise them when necessary.”

It wasn’t the Ebonyi governor alone who lately had occasion to call out council chairmen over local government finances. Barely a week earlier, Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister Nyesom Wike voiced displeasure over a comment by Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) Chairman Christopher Maikalangu that he lacked financial muscle to provide security vehicles for the police, and questioned the council chairman over use of allocations meant for the council.

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Speaking at the minister’s presentation of 50 operational vehicles to security agencies in the nation’s capital, Maikalangu had said agencies had been writing him letters requesting provision of security vehicles, but that he did not have the capacity as a council chairman to provide such vehicles.

When he came up to the podium, Wike described the council chairman’s comment as embarrassing. “I find it very disturbing that a chairman of a council will appear in public and say he has no capacity to give vehicles to security agencies. And then you answer the (designation) chief security officer of your local government. As chairman, every time you go and collect revenue. Where is the money going?,” he queried. “It is very embarrassing to hear you say you cannot build a police station. Security is for all of us. You have a role to play as chairman of the council. When I was chairman of council, I built police stations, I bought vehicles for them, I provided water for them. Security is key. So, if you have no capacity, then what are you doing as council chairman?” he added.

The punchline in Wike’s comment was his subtle threat of reprisal against Maikalangu: “Thank God, you have told us you have no capacity. We will see what will happen in the next election. You are the one who said so, not me. And luckily, this is a live coverage,” he said.

Both Nwifuru and Wike spoke against the backdrop of a recent warning to state governors by the Federal Government against infringing the statutory autonomy of local governments that was confirmed in a recent judgment by the Supreme Court. Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) and Minister of Justice Lateef Fagbemi, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) said the Federal Government took exception to moves by some states enacting laws directed at circumventing the July 11th verdict of the apex court and would therefore not hesitate to initiate contempt proceedings against such states, while their Attorneys-General might be referred to the Legal Practitioners Disciplinary Committee (LPDC) for professional misconduct.

Speaking in Abuja at the 2024 National Conference of the Abuja chapter of National Association of Judicial Correspondents (NAJUC), the nation’s chief law officer said: “I am aware that some states have embarked on promulgation of legislations which appear to be antithetical to the tenets or tenor of the judgment of the Supreme Court. My simple point is that the states concerned are advised not to tread within the precinct of contempt of court. And my colleagues at the sub-nationals should not also invite the attention of legal practitioners disciplinary committee for misconduct.” He obviously was referring to states that, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court verdict, enacted legislations of their own compelling councils to remit a portion of their federal allocations into a consolidated account controlled by the state government. Those state governments argued, among others, that there are services they jointly undertake with councils, and that there are others they would be forced to fund should councils find themselves insolvent to so do. Besides, they argued, the 1999 Constitution (as Amended) empowers state legislatures to enact laws for administration and financial regulation of local governments.

The Supreme Court had last July, in a suit brought against state governments by the Federal Government, affirmed the financial autonomy of the country’s 774 local governments. The court held that councils should, henceforth, receive their allocations directly from the Accountant-General of the Federation, and that it is illegal and unconstitutional for any governor to receive and withhold funds allocated to councils in his state. The verdict gave a three-month deadline for states in default to conduct elections into their councils, and it empowered the Federal Government to withhold allocations for local governments being administered by caretakers.

Delivering a paper on ‘Aftermath of Supreme Court judgment on Local Government financial autonomy: what next?,’ Fagbemi said: “By the July 11, 2024 judgment of the Supreme Court that granted financial autonomy to local governments in the country, any governor who tampers with the finances of LGAs in his state is seen to have committed a gross misconduct, which is an impeachable offence.” According to him, the apex court’s verdict is intended to liberate local governments from the stranglehold of state governors and promote development at the grassroots.

Many state governors obviously get the message that they cannot meddle in the finances of councils within their respective jurisdiction. Getting councils to be financially responsible in the exercise of their autonomy, however, is a dicey ball game for supervising state administrations to handle. That was apparently what the Ebonyi governor and FCT minister were dealing with. Wike left the matter to the next election. But Nwifuru took a more testy line, because it is debatable what he could have done if the councils didn’t meet up to the mandate of salary payment and their chairmen refused to oblige his directive that they hand in their resignation in lieu. Could he have compelled their resignation, for instance?

True, the constitution empowers state legislatures to enact laws for administration and financial regulation of local governments. But we also understand by a recent verdict of court in Edo State that this power does not involve cutting short the statutory tenure of councils. So, how are councils to be held accountable for the exercise of their autonomy without infringing on that autonomy, short of simply waiting by for another election to come around? This seems a grey area the judiciary may yet need to clarify for effective functioning of councils.

So long a year!

Year 2024 fades away into history as we welcome Year 2025 on board. Here’s wishing all readers of this column a year filled with bouquets of good promises and fulfilling experiences.

•Please join me on kayodeidowu.blogspot.be for conversation.

December 30, 2024
What Nigeria, developing nations can learn from China

By Emmanuel Ikechukwu Umeonyirioha

In recent times, China has successfully transformed its struggling economy into the second-largest economy globally. This was remarkably achieved through properly executing well-planned economic goals, and it serves as a beacon of hope for Nigeria and other developing countries willing to do what it takes to develop and grow their economies. China’s economic success story provides valuable lessons as we strive for economic development and growth.

The truth about economic development is that it must be well-planned and executed. China’s economic success resulted from a well-planned and consistently executed economic strategy, an effort made by both previous and current presidents of the People’s Republic of China. The Chinese Reform and Opening-Up Policy, launched in 1978, focused on modernising agriculture, industry, science, technology, and defence.

Most African countries are often focused on short-term goals. They must invest in long-term plans, prioritising key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and technology. Meanwhile, policy consistency is important for sustained economic development and growth regardless of change in power.

One major step the Chinese government took was to invest heavily in infrastructure, such as building roads, railways, ports, and energy facilities around its cities and rural areas. China has become the country with the most high-speed rail network globally, connecting cities and rural areas, and facilitating trade and mobility.

In Africa, poor infrastructure remains a significant challenge as Africans need more knowledge, funding, and know-how to develop standard infrastructure that would promote economic development and growth. By prioritising investments in transportation, energy, and technology, African nations can create an environment conducive to economic growth and attract foreign investment that would benefit them in the long run rather than the type of investments that weaken their economy and have no development impact on their human resources. The African Union’s Agenda 2063 emphasises infrastructure investment and growth. However, implementation must be accelerated.

China prioritised education, especially in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). The Chinese government invested in local and foreign universities and vocational training programmes worldwide, creating a skilled workforce that powered its industrial revolution. Africa’s growing youth population is a significant asset to its economic growth. However, many young people lack access to quality education and skills training. African governments must expand STEM education and promote vocational training tailored to serve local economic needs, as this would prepare the workforce for modern industries and technology-driven economies.

China’s transition from a low-cost goods producer to a global manufacturing powerhouse boosted its economic growth and development. China attracted foreign investors and boosted exports by creating special economic zones (SEZs) with tax incentives and infrastructure support. African countries must prioritise trade by establishing SEZs and focus on value-added production, such as processing raw materials locally. This can reduce dependency on imports and increase exports. They can also leverage natural resources and low labour costs to build competitive manufacturing industries.

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The Chinese government established and implemented effective policies that maintained stability in its government, ensuring that corruption and inefficiency did not derail its efforts toward economic growth and development. The leaders emphasised and practised accountability and results-driven governance. Every member of the government remained accountable for their responsibilities.

Africa must practice transparent and accountable governance, which is essential for sustainable development. African countries should empower citizens to demand and ensure transparent and accountable governance. Strengthening institutions to combat corruption in every government sector is a collective responsibility. Only in this way can we ensure efficient public services and build trust between governments and citizens, empowering us all to contribute to our nation’s growth.

China embraced digital infrastructure as a tool for progress. Innovations in digital platforms, e-commerce, and telecommunications have driven growth in sectors like retail and finance, and companies like Alibaba and Huawei have become global leaders. African nations should invest in digital technology to support the growing tech ecosystem that drives economic growth. With the rise in smart gadgets and internet penetration, Africa is well-positioned to lead in areas like mobile banking and e-commerce, which can boost economic inclusion.

The Chinese government successfully lifted over 800 million people from poverty in its rural areas by focusing on rural development, such as investing in rural industries, healthcare, and education. This reduced income inequality and improved living standards. Rural areas often need to catch up with urban centres regarding development. By investing in agriculture, healthcare, and education in rural regions, African governments can address poverty in their states and create opportunities for millions living in these areas, increasing the economy’s growth.

China became a major player in the international market by actively seeking trade partnerships globally. Initiatives like FOCAC, BRICS, and BRI, also known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR) further expanded its trade networks across Asia, Europe, the Arab world, and Africa.

Africa should diversify its trade relationships, moving beyond reliance on traditional partners like Europe and the US. Strengthening ties with emerging economies, including China and India, while expanding intra-African trade through AfCFTA can drive economic resilience.

The Chinese government did not merely copy the strategies of developed countries ─ it adapted them to fit into its unique context in the best way possible to promote growth. Solutions were tailored to meet local needs, from technology development to poverty alleviation. Leadership across Africa must focus on solutions that address their specific needs and challenges, like adapting renewable energy for rural electrification or using mobile technology to improve healthcare access.

China relied on domestic savings and investments to fund much of its growth, reducing dependence on foreign aid. Local industries were encouraged to reinvest profits into the economy. While foreign aid and investment are important, African nations must prioritise mobilising domestic resources. Strengthening tax systems, encouraging local investment, and reducing capital flight can generate the funds needed for development.

Many proven facts would help Africa accelerate its economic growth. China’s economic growth offers a blueprint for Africa to boost its economy. However, it is not about copying China’s model ─ Africa must adapt these lessons to its unique circumstances. With strong governance, a strategic economic plan, and a focus on education, infrastructure, security and innovation, African governments can transform African potential into lasting prosperity that benefits all. The journey is challenging. However, with disciplined determination and vision, Africa can write its own economic success story.

•Dr Umeonyirioha is an expert in Sino-Africa relations and the first Igbo language lecturer at the University of Oxford.

December 30, 2024
What will Palestine’s future be in 2025?
- By Michael Lynk
In 2024, there were a host of startling developments occurring in the Middle East and the wider world that impacted Palestine, most of them unforeseen 12 months ago: the continuation of the unrelenting Israeli genocide in Gaza, the battlefield defeat of Hezbollah and the devastation in Lebanon, the overthrow of Bashar Assad in Syria, the isolation of Iran, the election of Donald Trump, and a series of seminal rulings by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).

All of these seismic events make the assignment of imagining what Palestine’s future will be in 2025 a precarious task. Yet, with caution thrown to the wind, we can make some educated guesses on six leading features.

Leading scenarios for Palestine’s future

Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency will certainly encourage Israel’s accelerating subjugation of the Palestinians. His major appointments on the Middle East – including his secretary of state, his ambassador to Israel, and his two regional envoys – are all diplomatic gifts to Israel’s far-right nationalist government. His political instincts are all about respecting the strong and disparaging the weak. The only restraint that Trump may impose on Israel would result from his quest for a substantive deal with Saudi Arabia, which is publicly demanding a credible path to Palestinian statehood.

A genuine Palestinian state is further away than ever. In 2025, more Palestinian land will be confiscated, more illegal Israeli settlements will be built, and settler violence, already at record levels, will only intensify. While Trump might restrict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from formally annexing parts of the West Bank, de facto Israeli annexation will continue unabated. The ability of the Palestinian Authority to shape events in its favor will likely shrink even further. As for the comatose peace process, the Palestinians long ago arrived at a traffic intersection, and the red light never changed. It remains red today, its only color.

The genocidal war on Gaza will finally end with a formal ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages, and some Palestinian detainees. However, the unimaginable toll of deaths and suffering among the Palestinian civilians in Gaza will continue, as starvation, infectious diseases, a decimated economy, and a devastated landscape afflict the population. Hamas won’t be completely defeated, but it has suffered a grievous blow in the short run. Israel will push hard to build settlements in the north and for clan warlords to run the rest of Gaza, which Trump might allow. Another great test will be the raising of the $40-60 billion needed for the reconstruction of Gaza; this will create tension between Trump and his Gulf states allies, who will resist paying the lion’s share of the consequences of a war they opposed.

Will the international community face the Palestine issue in 2025?

Respecting Palestine, the United Nations will face some of its most perilous challenges in 2025. The one-year deadline set by the General Assembly for Israel to completely end its occupation of Palestine arrives next September, with Israel and the US committed to defying the obligation. In addition, Israel – with Trump’s backing – is seeking to dismantle UNRWA, the UN agency that delivers education, health, and social services to Palestinian refugees in the Levant. The challenge for Europe and the Arab world will be whether they will defend the UN, its core commitment to successfully resolving the oldest item on its political agenda (Palestine), and the preservation of its largest agency.

Israel’s diplomatic isolation will continue, even as its relationship with its superpower patron will deepen. Its outlier status at the United Nations – particularly at the General Assembly and the Human Rights Council – will see even more lopsided votes against its 57-year-old occupation, its denial of Palestinian self-determination, and its abuse of international law. The arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will make him politically radioactive, with heads of state and government that have signed the 1998 Rome Statute refusing to meet him. Pressure will grow within Europe to rethink various trade and cooperation agreements with Israel as a reaction to the war and its horrendous humanitarian consequences.

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Role of international law more important for Palestine than ever

The role of international law in pronouncing on the question of Palestine will become even more momentous in 2025. After the signature rulings by the ICJ and the ICC in 2024, we are likely to see a growing movement to insist upon a rights-based approach to peacemaking in Palestine, replacing the discredited (but still very much alive) realpolitik approach of the Oslo process.

The momentum created by the recent genocide reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch will continue to echo through UN corridors and foreign ministries. But there are also headwinds: Republicans in the US Senate are determined to sanction the ICC for issuing the arrest warrant against Netanyahu, meaning that the viability of the court will require a stout defense by the 124 members of the Rome Statute, particularly from Europe.

As we learned from the past year, there will almost certainly be unexpected surprises in 2025. And while there will continue to be dark times for the Palestinians in the year ahead, the war in Gaza has also sparked a global movement of solidarity – particularly among the young – that will continue to inspire courageous thinking and bold acts. Its lasting impact should never be underestimated.
- This article was first published in www.aa.com.tr
December 29, 2024