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  • Even these trying times shall pass

    Even these trying times shall pass

    • By Bayo Osiyemi

    It is difficult for any compatriot, including myself, not to feel the pain the average Nigerian is passing through at this moment of the nation’s political history. Hence I am in as much pain as any other compatriot.

    Yet as an incurable optimist, I see pleasure beyond the present pain, if we permit this promising ‘baby room to grow’.

    The truth is that the issues that culminated in the pain we are all bearing now did not begin with the advent of the Tinubu administration. It is a development that began many years ago, and neither the Jonathan presidency nor the administration led by the immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari can exonerate itself. Both are guilty of laying the foundation for the rot in which we are all enmeshed.

    Like cancer, it does not manifest in one day. It begins gradually and grows for years before it envelopes the entire body and stifles life out of the affected individual.

    In fact, there exists a kind of cancer that suddenly invades the systems of people with otherwise strong resistance to pain or discomfort, and within a few months, the body is ravaged to death. Not much warning signal to the carrier or the physician looking after him.

    But thankfully, not all cancer patients are consumed. There are survivors who later live to tell their stories, and this is the class to which I liken the Nigerian situation. I am really optimistic that we shall survive these trying times if only we are sincere, honest and patriotic.

    The economic throes we are in at the moment do not discriminate between any ethnic groups. We went through the pain together in Jonathan’s time without anyone in the South South or South East joining the rest of the country in calling for his ouster. Ditto, when Buhari assumed power and things degenerated from bad to worse, as it is now being revealed and his Northern kindred were not joined by the rest of the country to ask for his head.

    Why then are Tinubu’s Yoruba kinsmen becoming the most vocal in the agitation by some people for an end to a regime that is barely nine months old? Do they not know that their cacophony of voices could steer some over-ambitious lads in the military to insurrection as we are currently witnessing across Africa? If that happens, do some of these negative-thinking and selfish Yoruba know when next they will have the opportunity to have access to the nation’s presidency?

    The malfeasance in the running of the country had been on for years. Ending it in so short a time is both unthinkable and unrealìsable.

    The Tinubu Administration is unique in several ways, hence the expectations of the Nigerian people on it are very high. You do not nurse a malnourished baby or adult to buoyancy within weeks, as is being literally expected.

    I believe Nigerians expect to see a miracle worker in Tinubu, but he can only achieve something magical if he is given some breathing space to carry through the reforms he has embarked upon.

    I strongly believe that some of the vociferous voices are sponsored by vested interests who believe their political future will be badly hurt if Tinubu is allowed to see his reforms through.

    I plead for a little more time for him to remove the rot and corruption in the public sector as well as the banking and other private sectors.

    Fiscal discipline and ostentatious living must be curtailed within government, contrary to what is being seen around.

    There should be a deliberate policy to discourage the type of insensitivity exhibited in the purchase of official vehicles for the National Assembly.

    While on this, I cannot but commend the Lagos State example to several other state and national institutions.

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    At the commencement of the Sanwo-Olu administration, he veered away from the norm by jettisoning the purchase of expensive vehicles for its officials, up to commissioners level. In cutting costs, he went for cheaper and durable Chinese vehicles, such that he was able to buy three of such vehicles, for example, for the price of one Japanese SUV or car.

    Looking within, the system that gave so much latitude to executive governors like a former governor of a South-East state in whose private custody a sum of $800 million was found by the anti-graft agency, must be jettisoned. I’m talking here of the overly expensive presidential system which, if this nation must survive, must give way to a reversal to the parliamentary system, which is by far less expensive to operate.

    While we condemn acts of bare-faced malfeasance by some people in governments at all levels, we must also be honest with ourselves that a lot of ordinary citizens are their own enemies. They come in various shapes and colours – hoarders of goods, commodities, bank workers, scammers, kidnappers, and money extorting touts.

    If we all resolve to make Nigeria better and to be of our dreams, and give this government a little more time to fully calibrate the chassis of our severely battered national engine, we may be on a sure way to enviable national recovery and redemption. It is a plea worth considering.

  • The witch cried yesterday

    The witch cried yesterday

    • By Mike Kebonkwu

    Nigeria today brings to mind the fascinating scene from the inimitable William Shakespeare’s play, Macbeth, when the three witches met chanting incantation before a boiling cauldron: “Double, double, toil and trouble, Fire burn and cauldron bubble”.  Concluding, the first witch asked, “When shall we three meet again? In thunder, lightning or in rain?  Replying, the second witch retorts: When the hurly-burly’s done, when the battle’s lost and won”. They saw a foreboding air of uncertainty, a gathering storm and a tempest of national calamity.

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not a stranger to Nigeria’s politics.  He is a grand master and the chess board is like the lines on his palm.  That was why he was able to wrestle with the political pigs and came out clean with the trophy. He is not ignorant of the depth of the rot in the system because he collected the banner from his own party, the All Progressive Congress (APC).  He was equally well prepared for office because it has been his life ambition.  That was why his campaign slogan was “emilokan” (my turn has come).  Now here is the horse race, and here is the field”. 

    The violence, hurly-burly on the street today was prepared yesterday, when the witch cried that Nigeria was broke and the federal government was printing the local currency against all orthodoxy. 

    Now, now money, no food and the people have taken the dialogue to the street.  Mr President must engage them before they get to the next rendezvous in 2027.  Like the Shakespearian world, we believe in the interplay of the metaphysical and secular in this part of the world; we are incurably religious and fatalistic. 

    To us, every problem is caused by an eerie devil; one witch lurking somewhere that does not want our progress and breakthrough. We continue to bind and cast out devil; that is why our greatest investment and export is religion while we import food in the midst of our rich arable land. We spend more time speaking in tongues and binding the devil than to pick up our tools to work. We believe traffic accidents on our roads are caused by a jinx and blood-sucking demons instead of the decrepit and collapsing road infrastructure and disregard for traffic rules. We prefer to import the economic theories of the West lock-stock-and-barrel hoping to translate the reality of Europe and America to our own situation.

    Foreign partners will not fight insecurity for you; you should be prepared to equip your Armed Forces and put them to task to deliver on security.  Give all the money to pastors and imams to pray, it will never translate to safety and security just as you see it. School children have been in Boko Haram captivity for years and we have resigned ourselves to fate because our security forces and the intelligence community cannot rescue them. Many people are abducted and kidnapped for ransom by bandits and other criminal elements and for months they are in captivity until the ransom is paid. Ransom is not only paid in cash, the bandits also ask in addition, for fried rice and chicken, palm oil, cigarette,  medication drugs  as first cause to be delivered.

     The intelligence community and security forces are pre-occupied with responding to inappropriate political statement made by people in opposition while grandstanding as insecurity eclipse the entire landscape.  We had a fearsome retired general as president and head of government for eight years whose greatest asset was supposedly security, but turned out  a disaster and  more clueless than someone without any military training.  Bandits operated with brazen audacity under his watch; attacked and released some of their members at the Kuje Correctional Centre (prisons) under his nose in the federal capital territory.  They even threatened to abduct Mr President; and one could not have said that it was a joke because they made good their threat when they attacked the president’s convoy while on his way to his village in Daura. 

    He was simply absent-minded and his government became a bazaar of heist of unparalleled comparison in our national history.  While serious nations and people advance in science and technology to conquer their environment, we are sponsoring pilgrims for religious tourism to Jerusalem and Mecca.  We submit ourselves to the manipulation of religious conmen and spiritualists of all hues and political brigands. 

    Today, the health and growth of our economy is measured by the wealth of few individuals who are not entrepreneurs or people engaged in production activities, but government contractors and fronts.  That is why a president would tell the world as an achievement that his government produced more individuals with private jets!  These are not industrialists!

    Now there is hunger in the land and the people are on the streets.  It has never been like this with Nigerians, going on the street to protest against hunger and high cost of living. It is a foreboding omen for the health of the country and threat to our stability.  Witchcraft, No!   It is not any opposition, there is no opposition in Nigeria’s politics; they are all the same, half-a-dozen-and-six. It is poor governance, bad management, poor planning laced with corruption.  We have a multi-party system where the political parties exist only to provide platform as special purpose vehicle (SPV) to contest for elections. The politicians are rolling stone oscillating and migrating from one party to another in every election season. 

    People don’t have food to eat; they can’t even go to farm to engage in agricultural activities due to insecurity and they do not have money to buy food.  The cost of living is out of the reach of the proverbial ordinary man on the street.  The local currency has become virtually worthless and the take home income of workers can no longer take them home; as it has never in the past, anyway.  There is despair and desperation.  The government as usual in a panic mode is throwing money in the wrong direction as if that will solve the problem.  People suffer severe migraine buying gasoline at filing stations watching their minimum wage go into the fume of burning hydrocarbon. The economy is sinking into deeper mire and just the other day, a woman in one of the states in the Southeast was said to have sold her two children for a paltry sum of about N1.8 million just to be able to cater for the other children.  We are now on the street of Jonathan Swift’s world of Modest Proposal of consensual cannibalism.

    I am sure what is happening to our economy is not inflation by any means unless what my teachers taught me in economic class about inflation is wrong; which elementary definition is too much money chasing too few goods.  Yes, the people do not have any money, period!  The tokenism of palliatives is a mirage and will not go far.  We are not at war of a nature that should compel our people to live on hand-out from government and donor agencies.  Some states governments are reducing the working days and man hours as measures to cushion the effect of economic hardship.  Again, this translates to reduction in productivity of workers and yet, you want to grow the economy. We are indeed magicians! What a poverty of knowledge!

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    We are not investing in agriculture, we are divesting in education and health.  Our population is only growing because we do not need brains to procreate.  We wasted all the opportunities of yesteryears of huge oil earnings due to lack of purposeful and farsighted leadership.  We use our money to buy luxury and exotic goods that we cannot maintain and siphon the rest to offshore accounts to live in opulence in Qatar, Dubai, America and Europe.

    Fasting and prayers for a nation that is sleeping cannot turn the fortune of the citizens around.  All the anointing oil from the Arabia will not grow yam, rice and beans to feed our people.  We have to go back to the farm.  To this end, we have to fight insecurity not half-heartedly as we are deceiving ourselves today that security has improved; it has not.  We are facing serious threat of famine and starvation which is a greater threat to our corporate existence.  Talking about military coup is a boogie; it is a ruse and unnecessary distraction that we should not dignify with attention. 

    Let us focus the current problems of hardship and insecurity. People cannot be hoarding food when there is sufficiency and guarantee of replenishment.  Can’t we think? The security and intelligence communities are chasing and tracking small internet thieves and other minor infractions but they are not able to track and neutralize bandits and Boko Haram insurgents in their numbers and in their hideouts. These people are also using mobile phone and internet in their criminal activities. When we become true to ourselves, we will be able to solve the political and economic problems staring us in the place but if we fail, there is a prize.

    •Kebonkwu Esq is an Abuja-based attorney.

  • Nigeria and its rising food prices

    Nigeria and its rising food prices

    There’s no shortage of adverse headwinds that are confronting the future of the country. Ironically, just when you’re about writing the country off sometimes, it staggers to its feet from a prostrate state, resulting from being knockdown by heavy punches unleashed by the actions of self-same people in whose hands its wellbeing has been entrusted.

    Unfortunately, what we have now is a groundswell of cynicism. Indeed, I have never been so deflated over the state of the country like I have been lately and I think a lot of people do. And, I am certain that a preponderance of the dyed-in-the-wool optimists are at the backstage not just sobbing but having a rethink of their position owing to the trajectory of the country. Interestingly, the worst times always demand for hope to bask in the sunshine of better days. So, the current administration needs to start spreading the currency of hope to a bruised nation.

    It was evident that the country was in a tailspin while the past administration was busy masking its many challenges with unexampled spate of borrowings in creating a false impression of stability and hope while corruption at an industrial scale was being executed behind the scene. The vault of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) became a playground of some sort to the privileged. Sad revelations of not a few people caught with their hands in the cookie jar kept coming to light much to the pain and frustration of citizens.

    Without a doubt, a broken economy was bequeathed to a successor. And, it was clear that there wasn’t going to be low hanging fruits- it will certainly involve taking tough and painful path to putting the economy in order. Sadly, so many unintended consequences have been spawned as a result.

     The country can afford to have varied challenges in its plate but, certainly not food related. The current hike in food prices is bad for our national security. The country didn’t need a clairvoyant to tell of a day like this, given the poor position of the agricultural sector and the general mismanagement of the economy. So many factors have conspired to imperil the ability of the country to feed itself which need not be regurgitated. Though not exhaustive, but the issues of insecurity and corruption are serial culprits. The issue of food needs to be taken seriously! 

    For the umpteenth time, having hunger precipitated by hike in food prices added to the pile of other challenges makes the current situation a ticking bomb. The poor are at the receiving end of the challenge with many nudged into the cold embrace of hunger and poverty. It is so, due to the disproportionate spending of their meagre resources on food amidst a purchasing power that has been effectively weakened by withering inflation.

     There is no place for ‘luxury’- spending on other needs like clothes, school books, health has been significantly cut back. In fact, education is braving serious hit as school fees assume a tall order. No heed is paid to the quality of food consume just as the quantity consume in a day has reduced.

    There so much concern on the rising food prices owing to the fact that everyone must eat. It goes without saying, that people get agitated and desperate when food prices goes or begin go beyond their reach making it easy to bait anyone in such state into crime and other social vices. History is littered with examples in proving that food crises have been a veritable source of collective action.

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    High food prices constitute a tad of tipping point not least when it is combined with other deep seated political and socioeconomic issues. Ida Rudolfsen of the Peace Research Institute, Oslo pointed out that food related instability is heralded by  “rapidly increasing food prices in combination with factors such as high rates of unemployment, low economic growth, import dependence, various forms of political mismanagement, and a consumer based urban middle class who have mobilization potential.” The French revolution had other factors as catalyst outside the spike in prices of bread and so also the Arab uprising.

    The current state of affairs should serve as an epoch to rejuvenate and power the economy for collective prosperity while ensuring that food security is made a priority and not footnote. Food security is an important goal for a responsible government. This means, that all the stops must be pulled out in making the agricultural sector serve the needs of the people. Already, the manifestation of desperation is crystallizing with pocket of small protest under the banner of rising cost of food in different part of the country. So, the government has to be circumspect and determined while it works quickly and committedly in keeping  the genie in the bottle.

    •Ungbo writes via abachi007@yahoo.com

  • NEDC: Setting the standard for regional intervention

    NEDC: Setting the standard for regional intervention

    • By Dahiru Hassan Kera

    The recent passage of the bill seeking to establish the Southeast Development Commission (SEDC) has rekindled the debate of waste and duplication of responsibilities that has always trailed the creation of regional intervention agencies purportedly to accelerate development in regions that have either suffered from years of environmental degradation, war, insurgency banditry or even a combination of all. One of the most pronounced worries by Nigerians when the 8th Assembly passed the bill for the establishment of the Northeast Development Commission (NEDC) was that it may encourage other regions to put forward similar requests.

    However, despite all above reservations and fears, former president, Muhammadu Buhari inaugurated the NEDC in 2019 with a very clear and simple mandate – undo damages brought upon the region by the dastardly activities of Boko Haram insurgency and put it back on the path to economic, social, cultural, ecological, and educational recovery. The NEDC was to coordinate all humanitarian interventions by government and agencies (MDA’s) using the Northeast Stabilization Masterplan, a 10-years guidebook.

    The masterplan is in phases with the first being Recovery and Stabilization and was expected to run between 2020 and 2022. The Renewal phase will run between 2022 and 2024 while the third phase christened Expansion will cover 2024 – 2026 and the last phase which will be mainstreamed between 2026 and 2030 has been tagged Sustainable Growth.

    Intervention will be focused on 11 pillars which are: peaceful society, leadership in agriculture, healthy citizens, educated populace, flourishing trade, productive entrepreneurs, purposeful infrastructure, and industrialization.

    An integral part of the first phase therefore involved the accelerated development of critical infrastructure like roads, bridges, schools, hospitals, housing etc. which is geared towards quickly recovering lost ground. By implication, the first phase is long wrapped, and the second phase is nearing full maturity.

    But how far has the NEDC fared in the implementation of this masterplan?

    The answer is in the over 700 projects that NEDC has either commenced or fully completed.

    Let’s start with roads, for instance where NEDC has constructed many critical roads and bridges in all states of the region. These include the 54km Mutai-Ngalda Road in Yobe State, Alkaleri-Futuk Road, 53km Gombe Abba-Kirfi Road in Bauchi and Gombe. Also, 22.5km Zabarmari-Ngowom Road in Borno State, 32km Dabna-Garkida Road in Adamawa State, 2.5km Road at Adamawa State College of Education, Hong, and the Jabbi Lamba-Belel Transborder Road, also in Adamawa State gulped as well as the 22.5 km Mafa-Jere Road have all benefitted from the regional intervention body.

    Also, bridges at Kudzum, Dilechim and Wuro-Ngayandi in Adamawa State and the Mayo Ndaga Bridge in Taraba State have been constructed. These roads and bridges have been carefully selected to drive the region’s commitment to reclaiming its pride of place as a leader in agriculture which is one of the pillars of its intervention. On the ecological front, NEDC has engaged and sensitised 300 youths and women in waste recycling, efficient stove production and use to become self-reliant.

    The NEDC has also seen to the construction of over 3000 houses for low-income earners in the region with homes springing up in Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Adamawa, and Taraba states. Over 1000 units of resettlement homes were constructed for Internally Displaced Persons in the Ngowom community of Borno State. Another critical plank of the Recovery phase which has received attention is investment in education which has seen the construction of many technical and vocational training schools/centres as eight strategically located mega basic schools across member states are well on track with 16 classrooms, six laboratories, and 480-capacity hostels in every location in states of the region. There is also the multi-million Naira edifice constructed at the University of Maiduguri (UNIMAID) to be deployed as the Centre for the Study of Violence and Extremism (CSVE).

    This deliberate attention follows a general agreement in the region that youth restiveness is the direct product of idleness brought about by illiteracy and the dearth of skills. This is why the vocational training institute in Wuyo of Kwaya Kusar LGA, Borno State and many others dotting the entire region have been described as game changers. Such facilities and many others have been utilized to train and empower young people in ICT, power, digital vehicular inspection and other vocational skills.

    In Gombe, NEDC has also constructed a fully equipped Molecular Laboratory for Corona virus. It is instructive to note that this facility was instrumental to region’s response to the outbreak of Covid-19 in 2020. NEDC is actively collaborating with the Borno State specialist hospital, the federal neuropsychiatric hospital, the Seven Division Military Hospital, Maimalari Cantonment and the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH), and others to address the challenges in the health sector.

    In addition to taking over the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA)’s responsibilities of routine food distribution to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) living in designated camps and liberated communities in Borno and Adamawa States under which arrangement nearly 25,000 households of IDPs in Borno alone benefitted from routine food rations by NEDC, the agency has also collaborated with the World Bank-funded Multi-Sectoral Crisis Recovery Project (MCRP) to rehabilitate and upgrade water supply in towns affected by insurgency.

    A bold component of NEDC’s masterplan is the building of a railroad to connect states in the region with the south. The idea behind this design is not farfetched. The economy of the Northeast is agrarian. Farmers have had to contend with the problem of transporting goods to markets in the south using open vehicles. Aside the high cost of this mode of transportation, the burden of which eventually impacts the prices the farm produce, transporting goods by roads is highly inefficient in that it leads to waste. It is estimated that over 30% of farm produce transported via roads gets spoilt. That percentage is higher when dealing with perishable goods.

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    Work is already ongoing in the Maiduguri – Calabar standard gauge rail line, a 1,657km rail network, cutting across 13 states: Rivers, Abia, Enugu, Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Gombe, Borno, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Ebonyi, and Adamawa. This rail line when completed would facilitate the quick and cost-effective movement of goods and people, fostering social integration, economic growth, and the much-needed post-insurgency reconstruction in the northeast region.

    NEDC under the stewardship of Goni Alkali and his passionate and resilient team is poised to move the region out of its woods by proposing projects that will guarantee not only safety but economic prosperity of the zone. Projects like the introduction of electric mobility to significantly reduce cost of transportation within the region, decrease carbon emission and to guarantee clean energy are among such projects in the works. Also, in the pipeline is the proposed Northeast Airline that will cater for not only the Northeast, but the entire country.

    As NEDC makes a plea for better funding, it helps to be assured that the monies will follow the already laid precedence of judicious use and impact under Goni Alkali’s able leadership. Perhaps, the unintended consequence of NEDC’s excellent showing is the increased calls by all regions of Nigeria for interventionist commissions. I reckon that if NEDC becomes the standard for regional interventions, then other regions must pursue it with the vigour it deserves.

    •Kera is a newspaper publisher.

  • Lagos: Drugs, firearms and youth unemployment are creating a lethal cocktail in Nigeria’s commercial capital

    Lagos: Drugs, firearms and youth unemployment are creating a lethal cocktail in Nigeria’s commercial capital

    • By Adewumi I. Badiora

    Lagos is the most populous city in Africa and a regional economic giant, having West Africa’s busiest seaport. It is the centre of commercial and economic activities in Nigeria. The city’s population is estimated to be 20 million people. The existence of informal settlements makes it difficult to come up with a more precise number.

    Lagos has grown rapidly since Nigerian independence in 1960, when its estimated population was 763,000 people. In the 1980s, its population reached 2.7 million. The government of Lagos State estimates that 86 young migrants arrive every hour. This rapid urbanisation has been poorly managed. The result is crumbling public infrastructure, poor sanitation, poverty, and shortages of employment opportunities, food, social services, housing and public transport.

    These challenges combine to make the city susceptible to criminal activities. Organised crime and violent conflicts are a public safety and security challenge.

    The issue of crime has been with Lagos for years. In 1993, the Nigerian government described Lagos as the “crime capital of the country” with the emergence of the “Area Boys”, a group of social miscreants.

    The 2017 statistics on reported crime incidences in Nigeria by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that Lagos has remained in a class of its own. Lagos State had the highest percentage share of total cases reported with 50,975 (37.9%) cases recorded.

    I have been researching various aspects of crime and insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in the country’s south-west. I currently lead the African Cities Research Consortium safety and security domain research in Lagos.

    I contributed to a recent paper about residents’ experiences and perceptions of safety in six African cities: Nairobi, Bukavu, Freetown, Mogadishu, Lagos and Maiduguri.

    My research identified various drivers of insecurity in Lagos. They included youth migration and unemployment; inequality and poverty; the visible network of organised youth criminal groups; proliferation of small arms and drugs; inadequate preparedness of the city government; police corruption; the high rate of out-of-school children; and poor urban planning.

    I argue that for residents to feel secure, the government needs to include these drivers in approaches to solving security challenges in Lagos.

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    Unemployment, firearms and drugs

    In my African Cities Research Consortium safety and security domain research in Lagos, unemployment and the proliferation of small firearms and drugs stand out as trends.

    A survey on Navigating Unemployment in Lagos, Nigeria revealed that 48.31% of the respondents were unemployed and the majority were between 25 and 34 years old.

    In Lagos, youth of 18-40 years make up about half of the population, equalling over ten million people facing high rates of unemployment. I do not have current unemployment data but in its fourth quarter 2020 nationwide survey, the National Bureau of Statistics estimated a 37.14% unemployment rate in Lagos, and 4.52% underemployment rate.

    According to my research participants, drug abuse and illicit arms have become serious issues. Some of the city precincts in communities such as Ikorodu, Somolu, Agege, Bariga, Ojo, Oshodi, Mushin and Badagry have become warehouses and destinations for firearms and drugs.

    A recent survey published by ENACT Transnational on organised crime in Africa has shown that between 2010 and 2017, the largest supply of live ammunition transported into Nigeria illegally was intercepted at Lagos. This was made up of 21,407,933 items of live ammunition and 1,100 pump action guns.

    Most of the illegal weapons pass through ports in West Africa; some are imported over land borders. While the country’s law forbids random possession of firearms, my research respondents say it is surprisingly common for young miscreants to carry firearms in Lagos.

    The police have confirmed that hooligans acquire illicit firearms from local blacksmiths who make them, and from corrupt security officers.

    In 2022, the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency discovered a warehouse in a residential estate in Ikorodu with 1.8 tonnes of cocaine. This was the largest single cocaine seizure in the country’s history.

    In November 2023, security agents intercepted cannabis in Ibeshe, Iworoshoki and Badagry, and in January 2024, the drug law enforcement agency intercepted cannabis at Ikeja.

    Impacts of unemployment, small arms and drugs in Lagos

    Findings from my research in Lagos show respondents perceive high levels of violent crime in the city. Youth aged 13 to 40 are mostly the perpetrators.

    While there are no accurate statistics of daily violent crime incidences, residents are complaining.

    In 2022, the police reported that no fewer than 345 people were murdered in Lagos – the highest number in years.

    Young people have formed themselves into street gangs. My research respondents spoke of violent encounters in which their assailants used firearms and were often under the influence of alcohol or drugs or both. This was the experience of 18 respondents, out of a sample of 50 randomly selected respondents.

    Some respondents described street gangs in Lagos who are constantly high on drugs and have no regard for human life. Other respondents said drugs were accessible and affordable even for unemployed youth. Respondents believed that a combination of a large youth population, unemployment and easy access to drugs and illicit firearms was proving deadly.

    Preventing and treating the issues

    The crime triangle in Lagos – youth unemployment, drugs and illicit arms – requires urgent attention.

    My study in Lagos shows that a widespread sense of economic hopelessness exacerbates the use of drug and firearms by young people in Lagos. Youth who embrace this culture of violence are those who feel that they have no stake in the city and no trust in the government to provide opportunities for them.

    Thus, the state and communities must address the lack of opportunities and alternatives, reaching out to marginalised youth and providing them with an environment in which they can lead a fulfilling life. An effective strategy is one that provides legitimate activities and job opportunities for them.

    Government action is required to ensure that opportunities exist for training in a trade or life skill. This would enable youth to make better choices and find productive employment. They could be socially responsible and play an active role in the city rather than becoming a threat in their communities.

    Government has the authority to control the supply and use of firearms and drugs.

    Special operations should be directed at drug addicts and unlicensed firearms carriers. The approach should be to disrupt the market for illicit arms and drugs.

    Security agencies can work with communities to discover new dealing locations and make buyers feel vulnerable and uncomfortable through sting operations – pretending to be dealers or users.

    Urban planning approaches could also be applied such as inclusive planning of informal settlements, installation of security cameras and street lighting, limiting access to problematic streets through road changes, removal of transport stops used by drug and firearms users and their dealers, and improved signage.

    • Badiora is Senior Lecturer, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Olabisi Onabanjo University. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. https://theconversation.com/lagos-drugs-firearms-and-youth-unemployment-are-creating-a-lethal-cocktail-in-nigerias-commercial-capital-221504”
  • Unveiling and understanding the hidden guardians of human health

    Unveiling and understanding the hidden guardians of human health

    • By Emeka Taye Umezurike

    The human body is home to trillions of microorganisms. These microorganisms present in the human body are referred to as the human microbiome. The human microbiome is a diverse collection of bacteria, viruses, fungi, and other microorganisms residing in various parts of the human body, primarily in the gut, skin, mouth, breast milk and reproductive organs. This complex network of microbes interacts with our cells, genes, and immune system, fostering a delicate balance that supports numerous physiological functions and play a very massive role in the health and wellbeing of individuals.

    Often overlooked or perhaps not even understood or known, but immensely influential, the microbiome plays a crucial role in shaping our overall health and well-being. In this article, we delve into the fascinating world of the microbiome, trying to explore its impact on human health, and shedding light on the significance and importance of nurturing this invisible ally within us.

    Among the various microbiomes that exist within the human body, the gut (stomach, small intestines and large intestines) microbiome stands out as a major player and driver of human health and wellbeing. The gut microbiome comprises of a vast array of bacterial species, and it acts as a partner, aiding in digestion, production of essential vitamins such as Vitamin K, and can even have an influence on mood and behaviour. Moreover, the gut microbiome plays a pivotal role in regulating the immune system of individuals, protecting against infections, and preventing the human system from being colonized by harmful, illness and infection causing microorganism called pathogens by competing for resources and crowding out these harmful bacteria.

    The gut microbiome acts as a vigilant guardian, training and fine-tuning the immune system in what is referred to as immune system modulation. This helps the immune system to recognize and combat harmful invaders effectively. A well balanced and diverse gut microbiome can help reduce the risk of allergies and other diseases especially diseases of the aging process.

    Imagine a scenario where two individuals are exposed to the same contagious virus. One of them falls ill, experiencing severe symptoms, while the other remains unscathed. The difference in outcomes can be attributed to their unique microbiomes. The person who escaped the illness with minor signs and symptoms likely has a well-balanced microbiome that has trained their immune system to effectively combat the virus and other pathogens. On the other hand, the individual who fell ill may have a less diverse microbiome, leaving them more susceptible to infections. This could explain the difference that was seen in people’s reaction to the Covid virus during the pandemic, with some surviving and being more resilient than others to the virus.

    Science has also been able to discover surprisingly, that the microbiome in the human gut have a connection or relationship with the brain. This connection works in such a manner that the composition and balance in the gut microbiome can affect the mental health of a person. This is science is called the gut- brain axis connection. In simpler terms this means that what a person consumes overtime and the kind of microorganisms present in the gut can affect the mental health and state of the individual. Research has shown that the gut microbiome can affect the ability of the brain to function optimally, affect mood, increase anxiety levels and even affect cognition which is the ability and capacity for intellectual thought processes, perception, language etc. Imbalances in the gut microbiome have been linked to conditions such as depression and other serious mental health issues.

     A disrupted gut microbiome which is a situation where there is a serious imbalance in the composition and evenness of the microbiome can lead to gastrointestinal disorders like irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and constipation. This imbalance in the gut microbiome can be caused by various situations such as illness, poor nutrition, eating at wrong hours, over eating, lack of exercise, poor sleeping habits, irresponsible use of antibiotics etc.

    Studies have shown a link between an imbalanced gut microbiome and obesity. The microbiome can influence how the body processes food, impacting weight management and metabolism. This is particularly important even as some overweight and obese people happen to overeat and the body cannot process their meals as fast and as heavy as they take these meals. This leads to food being lodged in their systems for many hours, and microorganism continue to proliferate and act on this food leading to an imbalanced microbiome. Maintaining a healthy microbiome is crucial for overall well-being. 

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    Nurturing a healthy gut microbiome is important and this can be effected through a balanced diet and the use of probiotics (good bacteria which improves the immune system) can be found in yoghurts or many of our fermented Nigerian local foods such as Ogbono, ewedu, Ogiri, Iru, Dankwa etc. Probiotics can help to alleviate some of all these health issues mentioned above. Consuming a diverse range of whole foods, including fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and fermented foods are essential to maintain a balanced microbiome. This will provide essential nutrients and promote a diverse gut microbiome.

    While antibiotics are valuable in treating bacterial infections, overuse can harm the delicate balance of the gut microbiome. The use of antibiotics should discouraged except when totally necessary and in such cases there must be the responsible use of antibiotics as prescribed by a healthcare professional.

    Breastfeeding in women

    Research has shown that breastfeeding favours the development of a balanced and rich microbiome in infants and children. This means that breastfeeding must be encouraged in women especially exclusive breastfeeding as this helps the infants to develop a balanced microbiome and by extension better immune systems.

    Aside from individual efforts, public health initiatives can play a pivotal role in promoting microbiome-friendly environments. Governments and individuals must work hard in providing access to clean water, sanitation, and good nutrition as this can positively impact microbiome’s health at a community level. The government at federal , state and local government levels must work to provide safety nets for the poor when it comes to access to social amenities. This will help to improve the overall health of the population in Nigeria.

    In Nigeria and beyond, the growing awareness of the microbiome’s role in human health offers hope for better healthcare strategies and disease management. As research progresses, let us embrace the vast potential of microbiome science to usher in a healthier and brighter future for all. The microbiome’s influence is not an abstract concept but a tangible force impacting daily lives. From immunity and mental health to digestion and antibiotic use, the microbiome’s significance in shaping our well-being cannot be overstated. As we become more conscious of its role, let us cherish and nurture this invisible ally within us to pave the way for a healthier and happier future.

    • Dr. Umezurike is a lecturer at the Department of Biological sciences Lead City University, Ibadan.
  • Multi-modal transportation system: legal, policy priorities

    Multi-modal transportation system: legal, policy priorities

    • By Collins Okeke

    Nigeria has huge opportunities in the transportation sector to generate revenue, create jobs, and facilitate movement for business and leisure.

    Unfortunately, over the years, we have not been able to take advantage of those opportunities largely because of inadequate infrastructure, high operating costs, weak or suboptimal regulations, limited skilled capacity, financial difficulties, and more recently insecurity.

    These challenges cut across all transportation sectors including rail, road, aviation, and maritime.

    To successfully develop a multimodal transport system, we first need to understand why these challenges have persisted and then proffer workable solutions.

    In this article, I identify five cross-cutting legal and policy failures. I have also outlined legal and policy priorities for transportation in Nigeria.

    Legal, policy failures

    Over-centralisation and federal dominance: The Federal Government currently dominates the entire transport sector, not effectively engaging states and local governments.

    This denies states and especially local communities the opportunity to participate in tackling pressing transport challenges like insecurity.

    The fifth alteration to the 1999 Constitution, which now allows States to participate in rail transportation is a step in the right direction. However, a lot more devolution of transportation powers needs to take place. States should be allowed to manage inland waterways, federal intra-state roads, etc.

    No harmonised policy on transportation: Since Independence, Nigeria through the Federal Ministry of Transportation has developed at least 7 transport policy documents, some of which include: the 1965 Statement of Policy on Transport; the 1993 Transport Policy for Nigeria; the 2003 Draft National Transport Policy Document; the 2008 Draft National Transport Policy; the 2010 Draft National Transport Policy; the 2013 Draft National Transport Policy; and the 2021 Draft National Transport Policy (being the latest). Most of these have remained as drafts and were not implemented. Each state and transport sector (Aviation, Rail, Road, Maritime) has its own policies, most of which sometimes contradict each other.

    Overlapping institutional mandates: Nigeria’s transport sector currently has too many regulatory agencies with unclear responsibilities.

    The result is competition over funding and resources, weak inter-agency coordination, administrative bottlenecks between agencies, inter-agency frictions over operational areas, etc. This makes coordination extremely difficult.

    For example, there is a conflict between the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency and the Nigerian Ports Authority (NIMASA) over wreck removal; NIMASA and the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA) are also in conflict over who controls the inland waterways. The same applies down the line among the other agencies.

    Weak Enforcement and Implementation: Enforcement and implementation of policies, laws, and regulations in the transport sector are often lacking due to corruption, inadequate capacity, and insufficient funding.

    Several airports, airlines, and maritime operators flout stipulated safety standards in their operations, landing procedures, and maintenance schedules due to oversight gaps.

    Vandalism and trespassing of railway tracks, equipment, and properties is rampant as there is deficient security and enforcement to protect such transport infrastructure.

    Inadequate private sector engagement: This is mostly a result of complex regulatory requirements, limited incentives, and poor contract enforcement. Policies and regulations governing transportation are crafted without sufficient private sector inputs and perspectives, leading to business-unfriendly policies.

    There is minimal private sector participation in the development of inland water transport infrastructure and services, leading to the underutilisation of Nigeria’s vast river systems.

    Additionally, private companies play negligible roles in railway operations, leaving rail transportation underfunded and inefficient, apart from select attempts at railway concessions.

    Most federal roads are funded solely by the government, with very little private sector involvement through public-private partnerships (PPPs), which leaves the roads in poor shape.

    Legal and policy priorities

    Harmonised transportation policy supported by legislation: Nigeria would benefit greatly from the development of a harmonized national transportation policy that is supported by legislation, and which integrates all levels of government and the private sector.

    The Federal Ministry of Transport should play a coordinating role in this regard. Such a multimodal policy would facilitate coordinated infrastructure development, balanced transport investments across regions, unified regulatory standards, robust planning from shared data forecasts, and increased private sector capital.

    This would eliminate duplicitous efforts through the synchronised complementary buildout of assets like roads, rails, airports, and seaports. An overarching set of operational, safety, and customer service regulations would also allow better sector oversight.

    This, in turn, would improve efficiency, quality of service, safety, and cost optimization for both passenger and freight movement by consolidating the strengths of public agencies and private companies across aviation, land, and water transportation.

    Update existing legislation: There is an urgent need to update existing legislation governing the various transportation sectors to enable much-needed modernisation.

    Key laws requiring amendment include – the antiquated 1955 Railways Act to allow private concessions and public-private partnerships in railways; the 1954 Ports Authority Act to repeal constraints on private port operators and increase privatisation; the 2006 Civil Aviation Act to empower the NCAA regulatory agency to enforce stricter safety standards; the 2004 Highway Development Act to attract private infrastructure investors through fairer returns; and the 2004 Inland Waterways Act to provide impetus for private sector partnerships in boosting inland water freight and passenger transportation channels.

    Enact pending legislation: There are several pivotal transport sector reform bills pending before Nigeria’s National Assembly that need to be urgently passed to enable a comprehensive revamp.

    These include – the National Transport Commission Bill to formulate integrated policies across all transport modes and manage safety regulations and consumer protections; the Ports and Harbours Bill to commercialize ports operations and drive efficiency through privatisations; the Railway Development Authority Bill to set an independent agency that can expand the railway network via private investments; the Road Sector Reform Bill to increase private sector participation in road infrastructure projects; and the National Transport Policy Bill to institute an overarching policy that interlinks aviation, rail, maritime and inland water transport strategies using global best practices customised for Nigeria.

    Streamline regulatory institutions: Nigeria needs to streamline the complex array of regulatory institutions governing the transportation sector to improve efficiency and reduce costs. This can be achieved by consolidating all road transport agencies under a Federal Highways Authority; merging aviation bodies like FAAN, NCAA and NAMA within a unified Nigerian Aviation Commission; privatising ports management while an expanded Ports Commission oversees regulations; expanding the Rail Transport Safety Commission into a broader oversight mandate; instituting a private sector-supported Automotive Control Authority for vehicular inspection regimes; and setting up an apex Transportation Commission/Ministry to coordinate policies and data sharing across the consolidated entities – covering aspects like infrastructure integration, safety/security assurances, operational efficiency and service delivery enhancements for a holistic advancement of Nigeria’s aviation, rail, road, maritime and inland water transport networks.

    Privatise and commercialise through PPP: This promises immense benefits including – injecting billions of dollars of private capital annually to bridge huge public infrastructure funding gaps; driving major efficiency improvements in cost optimisation, operational excellence and service quality; enhancing technology utilisation for customer experience, safety and transparency; reducing public sector budgetary and operational burdens to focus more on policy oversight; and injecting world-class technical expertise, managerial competencies and global best practices to holistically transform Nigerian transportation.

    Incentivise transport education and growth of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities: Nigeria needs to incentivize transport education and growth of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) facilities by providing tax rebates and import duty waivers for certified training institutes and MRO centres; subsidising enrollment fees for technical transport courses via a dedicated Fund to aid affordability; allocating free land or preferential leases at airports and seaports to attract global MRO players; making MRO experience mandates for licensing renewals to compel local facility usage; implementing preferential local content in tenders for contractors evidencing skills transfer; and extending export incentives and tax credits for indigenous MRO firms to support their expansion – all towards addressing the strategic skill gap challenges and strengthening maintenance capabilities vital for advancement of Nigeria’s aviation, rail, road and maritime transport sectors.

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    Strategy on insecurity: Nigeria requires a well-coordinated strategy between federal and state agencies to tackle endemic insecurity in the transport sector via setting up a multi-agency joint task force for intelligence sharing and unified patrols; installing sophisticated surveillance systems like sensors, drones and AI-based analytics software integrated for proactive threat response; incentivising community participation for intelligence gathering on risks; reviewing insurance policies and compensation models to support operators suffering losses; criminalizing activities like rail vandalism etc. to enforce maximum deterrence penalties; and training specialized security units dedicated to safeguarding critical airport, railway, maritime and highway transport infrastructure.

    Conclusion

    Nigeria has enormous potential to advance its multimodal transportation networks across aviation, rail, road, maritime, and inland waterways. However, several structural issues such as over-centralization, fragmentation, weak institutions, inadequate infrastructure, and insecurity have severely constrained tapping into those opportunities.

    Implementing the outlined legal and policy priorities focused on greater harmonization, updating legislative frameworks, consolidating regulatory bodies, increased private sector participation, capacity building, and security improvements promises to set Nigeria firmly on the path towards modern, efficient, integrated, and world-class transport amenities.

    The time is now for Nigeria to make these pivotal unified, collaborative, and progressive reforms that put in place the enabling conditions for transport operators, investors, and customers alike to thrive.

    *Okeke is Associate Partner & Head of Public Sector Practice Group at Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL)

  • Restructuring: To be or not to be?

    Restructuring: To be or not to be?

    • By Braeyi Ekiye

    There have been calls for return to parliamentary system by some members of Nigeria’s House of Representatives. Indeed, a bill by 71 Nigerian lawyers seeking to amend the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria and re-introduce a parliamentary system of government has passed first reading in the House of Representatives.

    Under a presidential system currently in practice, the president is directly voted into power by the electorate (the people) while in a parliamentary system, the legislature elects a prime minister from among members of parliament as head of government.

    Another significant point of note in the parliamentary system is that there is no clear-cut separation of powers between the legislature and the executive as the ministers are also appointed from the parliament.

    To those pushing for return to the British colonial parliamentarianism which was practiced from 1960 to early 1966 and aborted for its poor and unimpressive administration by actors of the system, and for which the Nigerian military struck to send the first republic packing, argue that the system would drastically eliminate wastages in governance and ensure greater probity and accountability in the administration of state affairs.

    Protagonists of the parliamentary system frown at the present two-chamber presidential legislature – that is, the Senate and the House of Representatives, preferring instead, a unicameral legislature, which to them, is “less expensive and less cumbersome”.

    On the other hand, those in favour of the current presidential system of government in practice, argue that it ensures checks and balances, as no organ or arm of government, represented by the executive, the legislature, or the judiciary can wield arbitrary powers. But this assertion is neither here nor there, going by its skewed practice 30 or so years ago in Nigeria’s political landscape. If anything, the performance of both upper and lower chambers of the National Assembly since our presidential democratic experience leaves must to be desired. And this is the reason why a third party is not enthused at the leverage of governance of state affairs and its sad consequential effects. This group are neither pleased with the austere British parliamentary system or what they describe as the bogus, larger-than-life expensive American presidential system of government.

    To this group, anything short of a redefinition of the Nigeria state; that is, the urgent need to highlight the taproots of the current problems being encountered in Nigeria cannot be over-emphasized. For this reason, they are calling for “a holistic approach to remaking a Nigerian Constitution, and not piece-meal cut-and-nail amendments about parliamentary or presidential system”.

    The question that begs for an answer is: what is it that offends legal luminaries like Chief Wole Olanipekun, SAN, a former president, Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) and others, about the current 1999 Nigerian Constitution? Why is the 1999 Constitution even as amended, is dubbed fraudulent and unworkable? As far back as November, 2021, Olanipekun (SAN) described the country’s constitution as unrealistic, deceptive and lacking the power to guarantee the security of lives and property.

    He also stated that the country’s constitution could not be amended, saying that the National Assembly had complicated the issue, with its attempt to amend a law that has no origin nor author.

    The revered SAN made these and other epochal statements on the Nigerian Constitution at the 13th Convocation lecture of the Redeemer’s University, Ede, Osun State on the topic: “Beyond the Pandemic: Creating an Evolving New Normal”.

    The legal luminary posited that every functioning nation should have a masterplan ingrained in its constitution. He noted, however, that the present constitution “that was virtually landing the country in a conundrum in essence, and content, does not represent any honest, genuine and sincere law”.

    Taking a swipe at the constitution, Olanipekun added that the present constitutional architecture has conspired and aggregated all security outfits in the federal government, which he said, did not allow any tier of government to perform its basic responsibility of protection of life and property to the citizens.

    Olanipekun stated that he was not aware of any federal constitution in the world that forbids any state, community or a group of people in any particular location from having their own security outfit, particularly police formations, as the 1999 Nigerian Constitution forbids such a desirable and inalienable right through its section 214 (1).

    Like other well-meaning Nigerians within and in the diaspora, legal luminaries, frontline ethnic nationality groups, and organizations, Olanipekun advised that the present federal structure should be unbundled or dismantled to provide for Nigeria’s multi-faceted diversities and peculiarities in the new constitution.

    From the foregoing, it is beyond doubt that Nigerians are unequivocal about the need for the unbundling of the present 1999 constitution and a redraft and a restructured state in tandem with true fiscal federalism and devolution of powers well spelt out between the federal government and federating units. Through such a move, the defects in the component structure, which are many, in the country, should be adequately addressed to assuage Nigerians who are feeling the heat of bad governance and injustice in the Nigerian political space.

    I dare say that this is not an antidote or a quick fix to the myriad of daunting political, economic and structural problems facing the Nigerian state but it sure would create the enabling environment for equity and justice to prevail in our polity and kick-start inalienable ownership of oil and gas and other mineral resources by constituent states, and also for the enthronement of the derivation principle in revenue allocation for the benefit of all.

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    Beyond these are also the issues of respect for the rule of law and fundamental freedom and human rights, security of lives and property and not the least, the abrogation of obnoxious and archaic petroleum and land laws. Added to these is an electoral process superintended by a patriotic and selfless Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which can be trusted to deliver free and fair elections, and whose election results can be the true representation of votes freely cast and declared without fear or favour for the enthronement of enduring democracy.

    Short of being bored on raising these issues for the umpteenth time, one is still forced to call the attention of the present federal and state administrations to deeply reflect on the fears of Nigerians over the state of the country ever so widely expressed. Now is the hour to attend to the cries of enlightened and patriotic Nigerians over the bloated and sickly stomach of the Nigerian state, for which patriotic Nigerians have readily proffered medications to its ailments. We should, therefore, not treat with levity these unsolicited diagnosis and proffered medications for the much needed healing process to kick-start.

    Nigeria is on the brink, even though a little over five percent of her estimated 200 million population are enjoying stupendous wealth and displaying despicable lifestyles with careless abandon. The pity of it all is that, the rest 95 percent of Nigeria’s population are wallowing in abject poverty and penury with no “hope” in sight for their salvation.

    •Ekiye, a publisher, writes from Yenagoa.

  • How poor leadership doomed Ukraine

    How poor leadership doomed Ukraine

    •  By Alade Fawole

    Ukraine has been at war with Russia for two years under President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky is a former television comic actor, a political neophyte set up by Western power brokers and deluded by prodigious Western media adulation that he is a modern-day incarnation of the great Winston Churchill, Britain’s greatest war-time leader of the 20th century. Time Magazine even anointed him as its Person of the Year 2022. He must have become giddy from these adulations. It was all clear from the get-go that he was no Churchill but a palooka seduced into believing he is a great leader even though he himself knew he’s hardly better than a hapless puppet being manipulated by the US and its NATO sidekicks to wreck his country at their instance. America made clear all it wanted was use Ukraine to achieve economic and military weakening of Russia.

    Regrettably, though comically dressed in exaggerated combat vests and trousers, merely for optics, and toasted on foreign platforms, including the US Congress, he in no way resembles Winston Churchill. His comical figure doesn’t even remotely come anywhere near the gigantic profile of that heroic and formidable British warlord. He is instead a figure of pity, a straw man created by Western media but now being casually thrown under the bus to give way for Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. Nevertheless, he is still the one to take the fall for Ukraine’s destruction, as the US casually moves on to the next theatre of another of its forever wars – Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, now it’s Ukraine.

    Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has undoubtedly caused untold hardship to that once promising former Soviet enclave. And it was entirely avoidable if a sagacious and thoughtful leader had been in the saddle in Kiev. Remember that Moscow had warned repeatedly and openly since 2008 that extending NATO membership to Ukraine was an existential threat Russia would not take lightly. But then, the US in its usual hubris wouldn’t countenance Russia’s concerns, and instead kept pushing Ukraine to poke the bear in the eye. How silly is that, against a nation that possesses one of the biggest and most fearsome nuclear arsenals on the planet! What an utterly poor judgement it is to imagine that Ukraine could get away with such an act without Russia lifting a finger? Even after Moscow had massed some 190,000 soldiers at their common border, Zelensky still refused to take it seriously.

    Had he been a real leader, he would have known that no respectable commander-in-chief ever mobilizes such a large force and their fighting equipment to a proposed theatre of operation only to casually ask them to stand down, without having obtained the outcomes he desired. A commander-in-chief that does so risks loss of respect from his own senior commanders, or a mutiny to remove him. Senior military commanders waiting to command troops and be valourised in battle hardly take kindly to armies being humiliated by a bloody civilian c-in-c. All that was required to avoid the war was a simple undertaking that Ukraine would not push for NATO membership, period. But as president, Zelensky has hardly risen beyond the status of a television comedian who enjoys the klieg lights. No offence intended, but comedians are mere jesters out to make people laugh, and make a good buck doing it, not cut out to be leaders, more so in war time. Zelensky is a veritable example of the danger of comedians deluded into thinking they can lead nations. And he has, expectedly, made a spectacular mess of it. 

    Secondly, had Zelensky not repudiated the agreement reached with Russia at the April 2022 negotiations, the war could have come to a quick resolution, with the two most important concessions being devolution of some regional autonomy to the historically Russian-speaking Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzia, and acceptance of neutrality, i.e., no more push to join NATO. Ukraine would have gained back its territories occupied by Russia except Crimea. Instead of taking this sensible option, he let himself to be misled by Western “friends” like Boris Johnson into walking away from the deal, with the promise that the West would support him to defeat Russia. Had he taken the correct steps, Ukraine would most probably have retained sovereignty over its entire territory and retained the millions who had fled the country who may never return, and would have prevented avoidable destruction of its economy, infrastructure and mass internal displacement of its population.

    Two full years into a war it cannot win, Ukraine’s grim situation remains pathetic. It has become a shadow of its old self – vastly depopulated by between eight and ten million who have fled abroad; its once large and fearsome military completely eviscerated; its economy in complete ruin, surviving only on handouts from the US even to pay salaries; its infrastructure has been destroyed through relentless bombardments; no longer in control of its pre-war international borders with Russia occupying about a fifth of the country with no hope of ever militarily evicting it; even its only coastal access to the Black Sea for maritime trade is heavily circumscribed by the Russian navy, headquartered in Sevastopol in Crimea.

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    In spite of the promises and assurances made by the Western nations, Ukraine is today not any closer to NATO membership than it was at the start of the war. The alliance had made it known it does not consider Ukraine ready for membership in the near future because it is engaged in a war. Unfortunately, that war has destroyed virtually everything Ukraine can leverage in negotiations with Russia. In fact, its fate now resembles that of Germany at the end of the First World War when the victorious allied powers arrogantly shoved the Treaty of Versailles down its throat. I fear that with Western attention and aid now shifted towards helping Israel in the Gaza war, Ukraine might just be abandoned to the option of seeking negotiations with Russia from a badly weakened position than in April 2022. As it is, it has lost every hope of fully recovering Russian-occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzia, Kherson and Crimea. Short of suffering from delusion, the ugly reality must have dawned on Zelensky – he is no longer invited anywhere anymore, and the West has shown it now has a different focus! Israel now takes priority, and that’s where Western weapons, resources, money and attention are currently directed.

    Unlike Winston Churchill, whose heroic war-time leadership saved his country, Volodymyr Zelensky has wilfully led Ukraine into near total ruin and a pathetic shadow of its former self. In the end, he is bound to hand over a rump state to his people, a considerably shrunken territory than what was handed over to him, a destroyed industrial capacity, a damaged infrastructure, a degraded military capability and diminished international prestige, a badly depleted and a demoralized population, for that is all he has to show for his leadership. How to save Ukrainians, who have suffered too much already, from further avoidable and pointless mass slaughter and destruction from a war it is clear to the whole world they cannot win, is the big question?

    •Prof Fawole writes from Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife.

  • A blueprint for economic resurgence

    A blueprint for economic resurgence

    • By Ahmed Adamu

    The recent free fall of the Naira, plummeting from N460 to a staggering N1,600 at the official rate, has cast a dark shadow over Nigeria’s economic landscape. With inflation soaring from 22% to 30% within a year, the consequences are dire – exacerbating poverty, fostering frustration, desperation, and fuelling a surge in insecurity. The value of the Naira is the economic heartbeat of the nation, impacting the lives of every Nigerian. As the Naira weakens, so does the economic well-being of the average citizen.

    In this critical moment, the responsibility to protect and restore the Naira rests not only on the government but on the shoulders of every Nigerian. While the government bears a significant share of the responsibility, the path to redemption lies in collective action. Drawing inspiration from past experiences in countries like Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela, the way out is straightforward and common. Here’s a comprehensive blueprint for restoring the Naira.

    Nigeria should first leverage foreign investment for large-scale agricultural production and solid minerals development. The oil sector is bringing foreign exchange because there is a massive foreign investment in the sector, so also, if we want to grow the agricultural and solid mineral sectors, large foreign investment must be injected into the sectors.

    Leasing agricultural fields to foreign investors, particularly for products with global demand, can stimulate economic growth. The federal and state governments must take the lead in the large-scale production of these global cash crops. We have high-potential cash crops that can generate a significant inflow of foreign exchange to Nigeria.

    For example, in 2022, Thailand generated up to $9 billion from exports of cassava alone. While Nigeria is the largest producer of cassava worldwide, a lack of storage and processing facilities results in the loss of more than 30% of the cassava produced, with the rest being consumed, contributing very little to our export basket.

    There’s no need to focus only on famous cash crops like cocoa, cotton, ginger, sesame, and maize; there are other products like cassia tora seeds, soybeans, palm oil, and others that also have high global demand. We can allocate a specific target of certain crops for some states, keeping a target export destination and quantity in mind.

    Regarding solid minerals, state governments must play a vital role in attracting large investors to exploit the licenses they hold for large-scale mining. They also need to address illegal mining, which drives away legitimate large-scale producers. The mining sector should be standardized, similar to the oil sector. One reason why state governments are not so active in the mining sector is the monthly allocation they receive from the federation, providing no incentive for the development of solid minerals. Allowing states more access to resources and powers and discontinuing or reducing federation allocations could encourage states to maximize the untapped potential in agriculture and solid minerals.

    Another strategy is reducing importation through import substitution to reduce the importation of non-essential goods that can be produced locally so that we can conserve foreign exchange. For example, within just last year’s second quarter (three months), we spent N3 trillion importing manufactured goods. Most of this bill could be substituted for locally produced goods or alternative demand. Within these three months, Nigerians spent N734 billion importing used cars. If we can build adequate mass transport systems, the demand for importation of used cars will reduce.

    Currency swap is an option too, but in a different way. This type of currency swap arrangement is where Nigeria receives foreign currency at an agreed-upon rate in exchange for access to agricultural and mineral resources, addressing both economic and resource needs. No country will agree to swap its currency for Naira, but many countries will accept swapping currency for agricultural and mineral resources.

    Nigerians must stop treating the dollar like a commodity. Purchasing dollars not for any foreign transaction but solely to store value must be stopped. Nigerians, especially the wealthy and those in government, must refrain from converting their excess Naira to dollars for storage. Nigerians must be patriotic and sacrifice these illusory gains to save the Naira. The hoarding of dollars must be stopped by limiting the Naira in circulation, encouraging digital currency, and strictly monitoring cash movement.

    There are more dollars in the hands of people than in the banks, which is why the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cannot control the market. Since the CBN has limited control, Nigerians should only demand the dollar when there is a genuine need for it, specifically for foreign goods or services.

    Increased productivity, import substitution, and strict adherence to genuine demand for the dollar are essential. By doing so, the black market for dollars can be eliminated, as there will be enough dollars in the banking system to meet all legitimate demands.

    The government must cut its spending and prioritize key areas. A reduction in the deficit will free up more foreign exchange for market control. The government must cease borrowing, as the burden of debt makes it difficult to control the exchange rate when some of the available dollars are used for debt servicing.

    The CBN must halt the production of more Naira; making the Naira scarce could help improve its value. The scarcer the Naira, the more valuable it becomes. A scarcer and more valuable Naira will be critical in this strategy.

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    Redenominating the Naira notes could also be an option only after improving the export sector. This could be achieved by removing one zero from each Naira note to restore confidence in the currency. This would mean that a N1000 note would become N100 at its face value. If implemented today, the value of the dollar would become N160. This step could help build confidence in the Naira.

    People must have confidence in the Naira, regardless of the amount they possess. Confidence in the Naira is an essential feature of a strong currency. Other countries that faced similar challenges resorted to even reintroducing a new currency and, at some points, demonetizing their currencies, allowing any desirable foreign currency to be used as a means of exchange in their countries. This is the worst-case scenario.

    There are no two ways about it. The art of saving a currency is the art of production. No monetary or fiscal policy will work if we don’t produce for exports. A stronger Naira is possible only with stronger patriotism. Those hoarding dollars and using sentiment to inflate the value of the dollar are the true enemies of the economy; by hoarding the dollar, they are increasing inflation and thereby reducing the purchasing power of poor people’s income and the purchasing power of what they will eventually gain in Naira value. So, they are digging a hole for themselves, too. With patriotism, increased production for exports, reduced importation, and adequate dollars in the banking system, the dollar could be pegged at below N200.

    •Adamu is associate professor of Economics, Nile University of Nigeria, Abuja.